Making Sense - Sam Harris - August 12, 2023


#329 — What Happened to the Republican Party?


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour

Words per Minute

151.56834

Word Count

9,181

Sentence Count

281

Misogynist Sentences

6

Hate Speech Sentences

27


Summary

Brett Stevens is a columnist for the New York Times and author of the book, America in Retreat: The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder. He is the recipient of numerous awards and distinctions, including two honorary doctorates and a Pulitzer Prize. Brett was among the few courageous, never-Trump Republicans, and wound up leaving the Wall Street Journal over differences of opinion there. We discuss the strange change that has occurred in the Republican Party, the influence of Tucker Carlson, the war in Ukraine, the failure of elites and experts, the tension between concerns about misinformation and free speech, the 2024 presidential election, and the future of conservatism in America. And now I bring you Brett Stevens, who is here to speak about the current state of the Republican party and how our conversation about Ukraine, other topics, and other topics has grown so weird that we ve become maligned as a person associated with the center-right side of politics, which gets maligned in ways that we don t even realize we get. And as with the Waking Up App, if you can t afford a subscription, you can always send me an e-mail at Samharris@samharris.org and we'll give you one for free. Thanks for listening to the podcast, and as always, I'll try to keep you up to date on what s going on in the world of making sense! . Thanks to Sam Harris for his support of the podcast and for all the work he's doing here at Sam is doing at The Making Sense Podcast. Please consider becoming a supporter by becoming a patron of the podcatcher, and sharing the podcast on social media and spreading the word to your friends and family about the podcast to spread the word about what we're doing here. Sam Harris and I hope you enjoy what we re doing here about this podcast on the podcast. Thank you, Sam Harris - your support is making sense. - Your support makes the world a better place to listen to this podcast! - Sam Harris, making sense of it. -- Your support helps us all of us make sense, not just in words and in pictures and pictures and in real life, and we re making sense -- and we're making it all of it -- thank you, too, in the making sense that we can all of that -- Thank you for being a friend of the Making Sense podcast, you're listening to it!


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.
00:00:08.880 This is Sam Harris.
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00:00:47.400 Apologies for The Voice.
00:00:49.320 I am just getting over COVID.
00:00:53.200 Second time having COVID.
00:00:55.400 And this was not as bad as the last time.
00:00:58.500 But it has kept me off the mic until this moment.
00:01:01.720 I'll try to keep this short.
00:01:03.720 First, a brief announcement.
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00:01:43.960 Okay.
00:01:44.400 Today, I'm speaking with Brett Stevens.
00:01:48.360 Brett is currently a columnist for the New York Times,
00:01:51.900 which he came to after a long career at the Wall Street Journal.
00:01:55.440 Before that, he was the editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post,
00:01:59.120 and he's had a long-standing career in journalism,
00:02:02.720 reporting from all over the world
00:02:04.240 and interviewing scores of world leaders.
00:02:07.700 He's also the author of the book,
00:02:09.480 America in Retreat,
00:02:11.280 The New Isolationism and the Coming Global Disorder.
00:02:15.020 He is the recipient of numerous awards and distinctions,
00:02:18.500 including two honorary doctorates
00:02:20.320 and a Pulitzer Prize.
00:02:22.880 Anyway, Brett and I speak about the current state of the Republican Party.
00:02:26.760 Brett was among the few courageous, never-Trump Republicans,
00:02:30.480 and he wound up leaving the Wall Street Journal
00:02:32.140 over differences of opinion there.
00:02:34.240 We discuss the strange change that has occurred in the Republican Party.
00:02:38.960 We talk about attitudes toward Putin,
00:02:41.640 the influence of Tucker Carlson,
00:02:43.020 the war in Ukraine,
00:02:45.120 the failures of elites and experts,
00:02:47.440 the tension between concerns about misinformation and free speech,
00:02:51.580 the Hunter Biden laptop,
00:02:53.580 the 2024 presidential election,
00:02:56.260 how Trump captured the Republican Party,
00:02:58.720 the criminal charges against him,
00:03:00.620 and the future of conservatism in America.
00:03:03.080 And now I bring you Brett Stevens.
00:03:10.700 I am here with Brett Stevens.
00:03:12.680 Brett, thanks for joining me.
00:03:14.600 Good to be on your show, Sam.
00:03:15.600 You recently wrote an op-ed in your column in the New York Times
00:03:22.240 about your recent trip to Ukraine,
00:03:24.880 which is the proximate cause of this conversation.
00:03:28.580 I want to get into that,
00:03:29.580 but I think it probably will allow us to talk more broadly
00:03:33.780 about what's happened to us politically in the U.S.
00:03:38.060 and just what's happened to the Republican Party
00:03:40.280 and how our conversation about Ukraine and other topics
00:03:44.420 has grown so weird.
00:03:46.600 But before we jump into that,
00:03:48.240 perhaps you can summarize your background
00:03:50.560 as a journalist and a writer.
00:03:53.540 Oh, let's see.
00:03:55.740 Born in New York City,
00:03:57.460 raised in Mexico City,
00:03:59.220 which is a story unto itself.
00:04:01.420 University of Chicago for a college,
00:04:04.520 London School of Economics,
00:04:05.780 started working at the Wall Street Journal in the late 1990s,
00:04:08.280 worked for them in New York and Brussels
00:04:12.820 before leaving for the Jerusalem Post,
00:04:16.380 where I was the editor-in-chief during the Second Intifada
00:04:19.420 about 20, 21 years ago.
00:04:21.840 Returned to the Wall Street Journal
00:04:23.300 as a foreign affairs columnist
00:04:26.240 and a member of the editorial board,
00:04:28.460 and was very happily ensconced there
00:04:31.500 until Donald Trump
00:04:33.440 and pretty much left the journal
00:04:35.820 over, I guess, what you call creative differences
00:04:38.660 about our view of the former,
00:04:41.560 hopefully not future president,
00:04:43.540 and came to the New York Times,
00:04:46.200 where I've been for a little over six years
00:04:48.040 as an op-ed columnist.
00:04:50.720 I write a lot about foreign policy
00:04:52.260 and try to visit the places I write about.
00:04:56.360 And so Ukraine was my most recent foreign travel.
00:04:59.660 How old were you when you left Mexico?
00:05:02.880 Well, I left to boarding school when I was 14,
00:05:05.820 but I didn't really leave the country.
00:05:07.340 It was still my home
00:05:09.240 until I was practically in college,
00:05:12.020 so 17 or 18.
00:05:13.640 Interesting.
00:05:14.380 I guess I've heard you talk about that before,
00:05:17.100 but I'm not sure how widely known
00:05:18.880 that backstory is.
00:05:20.320 It's an interesting counterpoint
00:05:22.060 to some ways in which
00:05:24.560 you probably get maligned
00:05:26.300 as a person associated
00:05:28.920 with the center-right side of politics.
00:05:32.700 Yeah, you know, it's funny.
00:05:33.780 I was chatting with a colleague of mine.
00:05:36.860 I won't say who,
00:05:38.060 but a colleague of mine,
00:05:39.460 well-known columnist at the Times,
00:05:41.080 and he said,
00:05:41.420 you know, if I had to place you politically,
00:05:44.120 I'd say you're center-left.
00:05:45.520 I was shocked.
00:05:46.980 I tend to think of myself
00:05:48.520 as center-center-right,
00:05:50.940 although the last five or six years,
00:05:53.840 I've probably shifted a little bit to the left.
00:05:56.840 It's not so much a shift.
00:05:58.340 It's that the Republican Party
00:06:00.640 has moved so far to the right for me
00:06:03.000 that I feel just deeply alienated from it.
00:06:06.800 Yeah, we'll talk about that
00:06:08.180 because needless to say I understand.
00:06:11.320 And what did you study in school?
00:06:13.880 I studied, really,
00:06:15.120 I studied political philosophy.
00:06:16.900 There was a special name to the program,
00:06:18.980 but that was basically
00:06:19.960 what I was mainly interested in.
00:06:21.700 So, I guess let's start with Ukraine
00:06:25.880 as the jumping-off point.
00:06:28.480 You know, I've been fairly mystified,
00:06:31.860 I guess, previous to the recent war in Ukraine.
00:06:35.740 I was mystified by the fact
00:06:38.280 that Putin and similar figures
00:06:41.600 became darlings of,
00:06:44.200 I hesitate to say the right,
00:06:47.440 because I guess I don't totally understand
00:06:49.780 how right and left work now
00:06:52.220 as polls politically
00:06:54.060 because so many things are now upside down.
00:06:56.480 But it used to be that the Republican Party
00:06:58.640 was the party that imagined
00:07:00.820 it had won the Cold War
00:07:02.100 and you would expect
00:07:03.720 Putin would be among the last people
00:07:05.900 to be celebrated among Republicans.
00:07:09.300 And yet he was,
00:07:10.940 and then, you know,
00:07:11.520 his invasion of Ukraine
00:07:13.080 is often talked about among Republicans
00:07:15.840 as something that we provoked
00:07:17.600 because it's only sensible
00:07:19.980 for a man like Putin
00:07:21.680 to worry about NATO expansion
00:07:23.360 and even to think that Ukraine
00:07:26.040 isn't necessarily a country
00:07:28.040 and really should be reabsorbed
00:07:30.040 by Mother Russia.
00:07:30.920 Before we talk about your trip itself,
00:07:33.920 what do you make about
00:07:34.920 what has happened
00:07:36.320 to the Republican Party
00:07:38.200 with respect to topics like
00:07:40.800 Putin and America's influence abroad?
00:07:45.360 I mean, they've almost swapped positions
00:07:47.700 with Democrats
00:07:49.160 when you're talking about
00:07:50.760 the prospect of America
00:07:52.520 projecting any sort of power
00:07:54.380 to maintain a rules-based
00:07:57.820 international order.
00:07:59.500 So it's one of the great
00:08:00.500 weirdnesses of our day.
00:08:02.780 I mean, I wrote my first
00:08:04.860 anti-Putin editorial
00:08:06.000 for the Wall Street Journal's
00:08:07.200 editorial page
00:08:08.040 at the very end of 1999
00:08:09.880 and would get into arguments
00:08:12.660 with figures on the left,
00:08:15.620 particularly writers
00:08:16.660 for places like The Nation
00:08:18.780 on the threat
00:08:20.360 that Putin constituted.
00:08:22.440 I remember writing a column
00:08:24.420 in 2006 titled
00:08:26.220 Russia's Becoming an Enemy
00:08:27.540 of the United States
00:08:28.580 and all of the flack
00:08:29.980 I took from that column
00:08:31.140 was from the left.
00:08:33.960 And the switch really
00:08:35.060 came about
00:08:36.020 with the ascendancy
00:08:38.420 of Donald Trump.
00:08:40.760 I think we should be careful
00:08:41.880 because there are still
00:08:42.780 a lot of Republicans,
00:08:44.320 you know,
00:08:44.860 the Mitch McConnells
00:08:45.900 of the world
00:08:46.940 who are just as anti-Putin
00:08:49.560 as Jake Sullivan
00:08:51.560 and Tony Blinken
00:08:52.860 and other Democrats.
00:08:55.180 But what I think has happened
00:08:57.240 is in keeping with the fact
00:08:58.880 that the Republican Party,
00:09:01.980 which starting with Eisenhower
00:09:04.460 and maybe even before
00:09:05.320 Arthur Vandenberg
00:09:06.240 and his alliance
00:09:08.080 with Harry Truman,
00:09:10.640 the Republican Party
00:09:11.560 went from being
00:09:12.400 a kind of a conservative
00:09:14.000 internationalist party
00:09:15.600 to reverting
00:09:17.460 to what it had been
00:09:18.500 in the pre-war,
00:09:19.600 pre-World War II years,
00:09:20.800 an isolationist
00:09:22.720 or what I call
00:09:24.640 truculent nationalism.
00:09:26.940 And to the extent
00:09:28.160 that in Vladimir Putin
00:09:29.520 they see a model
00:09:31.080 of truculent nationalism,
00:09:33.640 a lot of Republicans,
00:09:34.960 certainly of the
00:09:35.680 Tucker Carlson stripe,
00:09:37.540 if that's the right name for it,
00:09:40.560 find a lot to admire.
00:09:42.080 They like the xenophobia.
00:09:43.860 They like the strongman ethic.
00:09:46.000 They have this perception
00:09:47.160 that Putin is anti-Muslim.
00:09:49.520 I think that plays a part of it.
00:09:51.880 There's a kind of cult
00:09:52.960 of machismo.
00:09:54.240 I mean, I don't want
00:09:55.180 to get too deep
00:09:55.820 into the psychosexual aspect of it,
00:09:57.760 but it's clearly,
00:09:59.040 I think, an element there.
00:10:00.920 And there is a sort of
00:10:02.900 old-fashioned quasi-isolationism,
00:10:05.680 which is let Putin
00:10:07.120 do whatever he wants
00:10:08.520 in Ukraine
00:10:09.580 so that we can do
00:10:11.060 whatever we want in Mexico.
00:10:12.840 It's kind of back
00:10:13.640 to the spheres of influence
00:10:14.940 mentality of the 19th century.
00:10:16.840 You mentioned Tucker.
00:10:18.560 What has his role been here?
00:10:21.860 I guess the thing that,
00:10:23.580 you know,
00:10:23.800 I tend not to pay
00:10:24.780 much attention to Tucker,
00:10:25.900 but when his texts
00:10:28.640 were leaked
00:10:29.580 in the Dominion lawsuit
00:10:31.160 and we saw
00:10:32.000 that behind the scenes
00:10:33.420 he actually reviled Trump,
00:10:36.460 the thing that I took away
00:10:37.860 from that,
00:10:38.280 which I'm still astonished by,
00:10:40.560 is that this is someone
00:10:41.840 who has more or less
00:10:43.180 shilled for Trump for years
00:10:44.980 and cultivated a
00:10:46.840 an audience
00:10:47.460 that's squarely
00:10:48.420 in Trump's personality cult.
00:10:51.300 Yet now it's divulged
00:10:53.020 that he considers Trump
00:10:54.600 a demonic figure
00:10:55.780 who he, you know,
00:10:56.560 hates with every fiber
00:10:58.120 in his being
00:10:58.720 or some such phrasing.
00:11:00.960 And yet his audience
00:11:02.520 doesn't seem to care
00:11:03.980 about the hypocrisy
00:11:06.120 and, you know,
00:11:06.960 total lack of integrity
00:11:08.760 as someone who,
00:11:09.780 whose brand seems to be
00:11:11.780 integrity.
00:11:12.920 I'll tell you the truth
00:11:14.120 that no one wants to tell you
00:11:15.460 because I'm not owned
00:11:16.640 by anybody.
00:11:17.980 What do you make of the fact
00:11:18.920 that his audience
00:11:20.440 doesn't care
00:11:21.280 that, you know,
00:11:22.780 the curtain has been
00:11:23.420 pulled back
00:11:24.100 and he's a liar
00:11:25.980 of, you know,
00:11:26.940 a very Trumpian sort?
00:11:28.460 I mean, I knew Tucker
00:11:30.180 slightly when he was,
00:11:32.180 I was at the Wall Street Journal
00:11:33.420 and he was at Fox
00:11:35.180 and we were literally
00:11:36.740 under the same roof
00:11:37.920 under News Corp.
00:11:39.580 And my impression
00:11:40.460 of him was,
00:11:42.420 I remember saying this
00:11:43.840 the first time
00:11:45.020 I met him,
00:11:46.720 I said this to my wife
00:11:48.220 or someone,
00:11:48.620 I said,
00:11:49.300 I've never met anyone
00:11:50.240 as cynical as this guy.
00:11:52.360 That, you know,
00:11:52.980 his principal aim
00:11:54.220 is sort of to advance
00:11:55.260 his brand
00:11:55.980 and whether that means
00:11:57.080 coming across
00:11:57.840 as a kind of
00:11:59.120 bow-tied
00:11:59.940 William F. Buckley
00:12:01.060 wannabe
00:12:01.580 or, you know,
00:12:03.560 feverish,
00:12:04.380 populist,
00:12:05.740 angry everyman.
00:12:06.920 He'll do whatever it is
00:12:08.320 to advance the cause
00:12:09.840 of himself
00:12:11.020 irrespective
00:12:12.040 of a point of view.
00:12:13.580 But the
00:12:13.920 isolationism,
00:12:17.660 the nationalism,
00:12:18.400 that's been there
00:12:19.140 for, I think,
00:12:20.300 a fairly long time.
00:12:21.600 I know for a fact
00:12:22.380 that it predates Trump
00:12:24.280 because I once was
00:12:25.120 in an argument
00:12:26.440 about Afghanistan
00:12:27.640 with him.
00:12:29.560 Look,
00:12:29.980 part of being a cynic
00:12:32.120 and I think part
00:12:33.320 of the appeal
00:12:33.960 of cynics
00:12:34.640 is when you're
00:12:36.600 basically saying
00:12:37.560 it's all a lie,
00:12:38.840 it's all bullshit,
00:12:41.340 let's all be in
00:12:42.960 on the fact
00:12:43.540 that everything
00:12:44.100 is a form
00:12:44.880 of manipulation.
00:12:47.240 It's weirdly easy
00:12:48.840 to win converts
00:12:50.380 because you're
00:12:51.580 sort of inviting
00:12:52.460 your audience
00:12:53.160 into the pretense
00:12:55.400 of a secret knowledge
00:12:56.540 that everything
00:12:57.820 is for show,
00:12:58.860 there's nothing
00:12:59.920 really true,
00:13:01.700 and the only thing
00:13:02.520 that exists
00:13:03.060 is power
00:13:03.760 and your need
00:13:04.860 to advance
00:13:05.680 your power
00:13:06.240 at the expense
00:13:06.940 of the other side,
00:13:09.460 the other team.
00:13:10.700 And I think
00:13:10.980 that's really
00:13:11.520 what Tucker
00:13:12.860 is peddling,
00:13:15.060 which is why
00:13:15.520 he's such a
00:13:16.420 sort of uniquely
00:13:17.180 toxic ideologue
00:13:19.480 for the MAGA movement.
00:13:20.820 I mean,
00:13:21.460 that he hates
00:13:22.140 Trump,
00:13:22.660 that's true,
00:13:23.660 that he adores
00:13:24.360 Trump,
00:13:24.800 that's true as well,
00:13:25.920 it just depends
00:13:26.580 on what serves
00:13:28.240 his particular interest
00:13:29.340 at any time.
00:13:30.220 And Trump,
00:13:30.740 frankly,
00:13:31.200 kind of peddles
00:13:32.540 the same point
00:13:33.760 of view.
00:13:34.880 You know,
00:13:35.180 when I was
00:13:36.380 in college,
00:13:38.120 the Cold War
00:13:38.760 had just ended,
00:13:39.820 I entered college
00:13:41.480 the same year
00:13:42.040 the Soviet Union
00:13:42.760 collapsed,
00:13:43.940 and for a variety
00:13:45.680 of reasons,
00:13:46.200 I developed this interest
00:13:47.660 in the mid-20th century
00:13:50.600 literature
00:13:51.100 by anti-totalitarian
00:13:52.840 writers,
00:13:54.240 people like
00:13:54.920 Hannah Arendt
00:13:56.800 and Miloš
00:13:58.560 and a bunch
00:14:00.160 of other figures,
00:14:01.240 both from behind
00:14:02.540 the Iron Curtain,
00:14:03.360 Václav Havel,
00:14:04.400 and in the free world,
00:14:06.420 who really thought
00:14:07.160 deeply about
00:14:08.060 the totalitarian
00:14:10.080 phenomenon.
00:14:11.460 And what has
00:14:12.340 struck me profoundly
00:14:13.640 in the last
00:14:14.240 five or six years
00:14:15.200 is how
00:14:15.660 the psychological
00:14:16.800 categories,
00:14:18.340 the desire
00:14:19.300 to obey,
00:14:21.080 the desire
00:14:21.600 to be,
00:14:22.800 the willingness
00:14:23.660 to be misled
00:14:25.240 so long as
00:14:25.860 you're made
00:14:27.120 to feel
00:14:27.500 as if you belong,
00:14:29.080 that those
00:14:29.700 methods
00:14:30.760 by which
00:14:31.320 totalitarian
00:14:32.260 or post-totalitarian
00:14:33.480 societies
00:14:34.160 were able
00:14:34.800 to rule
00:14:35.480 and to stay
00:14:36.040 in power,
00:14:37.080 that those
00:14:37.560 in effect
00:14:38.380 recall,
00:14:39.900 or,
00:14:40.920 well,
00:14:41.600 the Trump playbook
00:14:42.940 recalls
00:14:43.660 those methods.
00:14:44.440 It's to an
00:14:45.660 eerie degree
00:14:46.400 and it's really
00:14:46.960 worth rereading
00:14:47.840 those books.
00:14:49.400 Yeah, well,
00:14:49.660 I want to get back
00:14:50.540 to Trump
00:14:51.380 and perhaps
00:14:52.060 we can talk
00:14:52.520 about his
00:14:53.040 current legal
00:14:54.420 troubles
00:14:54.860 and whether
00:14:55.400 the left
00:14:56.620 is getting
00:14:57.620 too confident
00:14:58.320 that he will
00:14:59.380 actually pay
00:15:00.560 for anything
00:15:01.240 that he has
00:15:01.700 done
00:15:01.980 or attempted
00:15:03.340 to do.
00:15:04.220 But before
00:15:05.320 we pivot
00:15:06.060 back to that,
00:15:07.240 let's talk
00:15:07.720 about Ukraine.
00:15:09.120 Can you
00:15:09.460 just give
00:15:10.380 me the
00:15:11.000 moral
00:15:11.900 and geopolitical
00:15:13.440 case
00:15:13.880 for our
00:15:14.500 support
00:15:15.000 of Ukraine?
00:15:16.460 I think
00:15:16.720 in Ukraine
00:15:17.280 our moral
00:15:18.180 interests
00:15:18.700 almost wholly
00:15:19.840 coincide
00:15:20.680 with our
00:15:21.640 national
00:15:23.020 interest.
00:15:23.960 We have
00:15:24.560 a moral
00:15:25.160 interest
00:15:25.640 in defending
00:15:26.960 a victimized
00:15:28.720 state
00:15:29.400 against
00:15:30.500 a
00:15:31.280 authoritarian
00:15:32.180 bully
00:15:33.340 who has
00:15:34.160 no regard
00:15:35.480 for any
00:15:36.680 ordinary
00:15:37.640 norms
00:15:38.200 of law
00:15:39.380 or laws
00:15:40.680 of warfare
00:15:41.880 or human
00:15:42.980 rights.
00:15:44.020 And we
00:15:44.320 also have
00:15:44.860 a vital
00:15:45.240 national
00:15:45.700 interest
00:15:46.200 in showing
00:15:46.840 that we
00:15:47.520 are prepared
00:15:48.040 to defend
00:15:48.840 embattled
00:15:50.200 democracies
00:15:51.140 in the face
00:15:52.020 of this
00:15:52.740 kind of
00:15:53.180 aggression,
00:15:54.280 not just
00:15:54.840 for the
00:15:55.180 sake of
00:15:55.680 Ukrainians,
00:15:56.580 but for
00:15:57.040 the sake
00:15:57.540 of whoever
00:15:58.100 it is
00:15:59.260 that autocrats
00:16:00.080 like Putin,
00:16:00.960 but also
00:16:01.460 Xi and
00:16:02.260 maybe
00:16:02.540 Khamenei
00:16:03.240 and Iran
00:16:03.980 want to
00:16:05.660 attack next.
00:16:06.880 So Xi
00:16:07.800 is looking
00:16:08.280 very carefully
00:16:08.980 at the
00:16:09.340 outcome
00:16:09.820 of Ukraine
00:16:11.180 to determine
00:16:12.280 whether he's
00:16:12.920 going to
00:16:13.340 strike Taiwan
00:16:14.400 and if
00:16:15.920 Putin is
00:16:16.940 allowed to
00:16:17.600 win or at
00:16:18.220 least to
00:16:18.580 keep his
00:16:19.000 gains and
00:16:19.640 freeze the
00:16:20.160 conflict,
00:16:21.300 we will be
00:16:21.960 in greater
00:16:22.720 danger,
00:16:23.600 not less,
00:16:24.380 which is why
00:16:24.920 doing the
00:16:25.340 right thing
00:16:25.760 by the
00:16:26.080 Ukrainians
00:16:26.600 is also
00:16:27.040 doing the
00:16:27.480 right thing
00:16:28.000 by the
00:16:28.600 American
00:16:28.880 people.
00:16:30.140 What do
00:16:30.260 you make
00:16:30.560 of the
00:16:30.820 claim
00:16:31.240 that we
00:16:32.720 quite
00:16:33.520 irresponsibly
00:16:34.500 provoked
00:16:35.720 Putin?
00:16:36.720 I mean,
00:16:36.960 it was our
00:16:37.500 own failures
00:16:38.100 of diplomacy,
00:16:39.600 our own
00:16:40.200 provocative
00:16:40.880 dangling of
00:16:42.080 the prospect
00:16:42.760 of Ukraine's
00:16:43.700 membership in
00:16:44.300 NATO.
00:16:44.880 We basically
00:16:45.860 gave Putin
00:16:47.000 no choice
00:16:47.840 but to
00:16:48.320 invade.
00:16:49.040 There was
00:16:49.260 no prospect
00:16:50.000 of Ukrainian
00:16:50.660 membership in
00:16:51.500 NATO,
00:16:51.900 none whatever,
00:16:52.980 and Putin
00:16:53.480 knew it
00:16:54.620 perfectly well.
00:16:55.920 The subject
00:16:56.400 was raised
00:16:57.000 in 2008
00:16:58.280 and then
00:16:58.840 buried
00:16:59.220 afterwards.
00:17:00.560 Even now,
00:17:01.280 there's really
00:17:02.440 not much
00:17:02.840 of a
00:17:03.060 prospect
00:17:03.400 of at
00:17:03.760 least
00:17:03.880 near-term
00:17:04.340 Ukrainian
00:17:04.740 membership
00:17:05.220 in NATO.
00:17:06.680 I guess
00:17:07.860 that's the
00:17:08.300 Mearsheimer
00:17:08.780 hypothesis.
00:17:10.100 I think
00:17:10.420 that's simply
00:17:10.940 false.
00:17:11.660 The truth
00:17:12.080 is,
00:17:12.360 you can
00:17:12.760 go back
00:17:13.220 to the
00:17:13.480 1990s
00:17:14.260 and say
00:17:14.580 that we
00:17:15.100 provoked
00:17:16.200 Russia
00:17:16.680 when we
00:17:18.000 decided
00:17:18.460 to invite
00:17:19.180 the Baltic
00:17:20.200 states
00:17:20.640 and Poland
00:17:21.460 and some
00:17:21.900 of the
00:17:22.080 old Warsaw
00:17:22.580 Pact
00:17:22.880 members
00:17:23.300 into the
00:17:24.540 NATO
00:17:24.800 alliance.
00:17:25.980 The truth
00:17:26.380 is,
00:17:26.600 these
00:17:26.740 countries
00:17:27.100 wanted to
00:17:27.760 be in
00:17:28.300 the
00:17:28.760 NATO
00:17:29.020 alliance
00:17:29.400 because
00:17:29.660 they knew
00:17:30.800 very well
00:17:31.440 looking at
00:17:31.920 their own
00:17:32.240 history
00:17:32.660 that if
00:17:33.440 they didn't
00:17:33.740 have the
00:17:34.420 guarantee
00:17:34.820 of Western
00:17:36.420 security,
00:17:37.160 of American
00:17:37.560 security,
00:17:38.800 Russia would
00:17:39.420 reemerge as
00:17:40.200 a great
00:17:40.580 power and
00:17:41.460 Russia's
00:17:42.320 history as
00:17:43.200 a great
00:17:43.480 power has
00:17:43.960 been one
00:17:44.420 of constant
00:17:45.280 aggression,
00:17:45.960 not just
00:17:46.320 under the
00:17:47.320 communists,
00:17:47.880 but going
00:17:48.180 back to
00:17:48.540 the Tsarist
00:17:49.100 era.
00:17:49.960 Poland
00:17:50.180 disappeared
00:17:50.720 for a
00:17:51.340 couple of
00:17:51.740 hundred
00:17:51.960 years.
00:17:53.100 So,
00:17:53.420 NATO
00:17:53.780 has and
00:17:54.900 has always
00:17:55.500 been a
00:17:55.940 defensive
00:17:56.340 alliance.
00:17:57.000 I think
00:17:57.560 Putin
00:17:57.980 understands
00:17:58.540 this
00:17:58.780 perfectly
00:17:59.260 well.
00:18:00.400 And the
00:18:00.960 idea that
00:18:01.480 we're somehow
00:18:02.100 to blame
00:18:02.820 for the
00:18:03.400 fact that
00:18:03.940 Russia has
00:18:04.820 launched one
00:18:05.540 of the
00:18:05.700 most violent
00:18:06.400 and unnecessary
00:18:07.500 wars in
00:18:08.160 history is
00:18:08.760 just perverse.
00:18:11.440 So,
00:18:11.720 what was
00:18:12.340 your experience
00:18:13.260 in Ukraine?
00:18:15.860 Well,
00:18:16.280 I don't want
00:18:16.540 to make too
00:18:16.880 much of it
00:18:17.280 because I
00:18:17.660 was there
00:18:17.920 for four
00:18:18.360 days.
00:18:19.280 And,
00:18:19.640 you know,
00:18:20.080 some of
00:18:20.440 my colleagues
00:18:20.980 at the
00:18:21.260 New York
00:18:21.520 Times have
00:18:22.060 been there
00:18:22.380 for months,
00:18:23.060 if not
00:18:23.520 years.
00:18:24.260 And so,
00:18:24.920 there's a
00:18:25.380 limit to
00:18:25.760 how much
00:18:26.180 you can
00:18:26.560 glean
00:18:26.980 on what's
00:18:28.740 really a
00:18:29.100 pretty short
00:18:29.800 visit.
00:18:30.280 But nonetheless,
00:18:30.880 you learn
00:18:31.340 a few
00:18:31.580 things.
00:18:32.680 Number one,
00:18:33.480 no planes
00:18:34.120 fly to
00:18:34.540 Ukraine,
00:18:35.000 no ships
00:18:35.420 sail to
00:18:35.860 Ukraine.
00:18:36.800 In that
00:18:37.720 sense,
00:18:38.060 it's one
00:18:38.300 of the
00:18:38.440 most isolated
00:18:39.140 states in
00:18:40.040 the world.
00:18:40.600 We took
00:18:41.220 a nine-hour
00:18:41.920 train from
00:18:43.060 the Polish
00:18:43.520 border to
00:18:44.840 Kiev.
00:18:45.880 Number two,
00:18:47.080 Kiev is
00:18:47.900 thriving.
00:18:48.960 It was
00:18:49.840 stunning to
00:18:51.000 me that
00:18:51.440 a city
00:18:52.020 where so
00:18:53.000 many people
00:18:53.600 have been,
00:18:54.260 so many
00:18:54.680 siblings are
00:18:55.500 at war,
00:18:56.060 is insisting
00:18:57.480 that life
00:18:58.320 should be
00:18:58.760 led as
00:18:59.560 close to
00:19:00.320 normal as
00:19:00.840 possible.
00:19:01.560 I think I
00:19:02.180 said this
00:19:02.520 in a
00:19:02.720 convict,
00:19:03.600 that Ukrainians
00:19:04.580 are living
00:19:05.120 their lives
00:19:05.620 as if there
00:19:06.060 is no
00:19:06.420 war,
00:19:07.060 and they
00:19:07.940 are fighting
00:19:08.380 the war
00:19:08.760 as if there
00:19:09.200 is no
00:19:09.680 everyday
00:19:10.360 life.
00:19:11.400 It's a
00:19:11.740 very striking
00:19:12.260 fact to
00:19:13.280 be awakened
00:19:14.560 multiple times
00:19:15.720 in the middle
00:19:16.080 of the night
00:19:16.420 because Russian
00:19:17.400 drones or
00:19:18.200 cruise missiles
00:19:18.780 are heading
00:19:19.300 your way,
00:19:20.560 and Mark
00:19:21.320 Hamill's voice
00:19:22.040 comes up on
00:19:23.000 something called
00:19:23.860 the air
00:19:24.180 alert app
00:19:24.880 and basically
00:19:25.920 tells you to
00:19:26.880 seek safety
00:19:27.960 and don't be
00:19:28.880 so cocky as
00:19:30.700 to think you're
00:19:31.160 invulnerable.
00:19:32.360 And I learned
00:19:32.740 that Ukrainians
00:19:33.800 are really
00:19:34.400 determined to
00:19:35.860 win the war.
00:19:36.800 They are not
00:19:37.340 eager to look
00:19:38.580 for a settlement
00:19:39.180 because they
00:19:39.700 know that if
00:19:40.180 they do,
00:19:41.360 Russia will
00:19:42.060 regroup,
00:19:43.520 bide its
00:19:43.860 time,
00:19:44.360 maybe it
00:19:44.800 might be
00:19:45.180 five years,
00:19:45.920 maybe it
00:19:46.220 might be
00:19:46.500 15,
00:19:47.540 but will
00:19:47.900 strike again.
00:19:48.580 So they're
00:19:49.040 really determined
00:19:49.680 to win this
00:19:50.200 thing.
00:19:50.400 And by win
00:19:51.300 you mean
00:19:51.740 reclaim all
00:19:52.620 the territory
00:19:53.260 that was
00:19:53.840 previously lost?
00:19:56.020 That's what
00:19:56.380 Ukrainians,
00:19:57.200 the Ukrainians
00:19:57.780 I met with
00:19:58.620 all insisted
00:19:59.520 to the last
00:20:00.740 person,
00:20:01.540 that they feel
00:20:02.980 they are
00:20:04.140 every bit as
00:20:05.300 eager to
00:20:05.880 reclaim Crimea,
00:20:07.180 which was
00:20:07.540 seized back
00:20:08.560 in 2014
00:20:09.680 as they are
00:20:10.320 to reclaim
00:20:10.860 the land
00:20:11.980 that the
00:20:12.600 Russians took
00:20:13.100 since 2022.
00:20:14.600 I think it's
00:20:15.840 ultimately going
00:20:16.520 to be their
00:20:16.980 decision based
00:20:17.920 on how the
00:20:18.600 offensive or
00:20:19.300 their
00:20:19.460 counter-offensive
00:20:20.120 goes to
00:20:21.160 figure out
00:20:21.740 what it
00:20:22.140 is that
00:20:23.140 they can
00:20:23.500 live with.
00:20:24.000 And I can
00:20:24.300 imagine that
00:20:24.920 if Ukrainians
00:20:25.620 were told,
00:20:26.780 look,
00:20:27.400 we are going
00:20:27.880 to invite
00:20:28.220 you into
00:20:28.600 NATO or
00:20:29.140 we're going
00:20:29.400 to give
00:20:29.560 you other
00:20:29.900 forms of
00:20:30.560 very good
00:20:31.220 security
00:20:31.760 guarantees,
00:20:33.020 but Crimea
00:20:33.620 may be a
00:20:34.200 bridge too
00:20:34.660 far,
00:20:35.800 they might
00:20:36.780 reassess that.
00:20:37.960 But from
00:20:38.560 my encounters
00:20:40.060 with the
00:20:40.400 Ukrainians,
00:20:40.960 they were
00:20:41.400 unanimous
00:20:42.620 in insisting
00:20:45.060 that they
00:20:45.560 want to
00:20:46.560 reclaim their
00:20:47.080 full sovereignty.
00:20:48.360 Do we feel
00:20:49.020 that we have
00:20:49.480 good
00:20:50.120 mortality and
00:20:51.460 casualty data
00:20:52.720 on both
00:20:53.540 sides of
00:20:53.980 the war?
00:20:55.080 It's been a
00:20:55.980 while since I've
00:20:56.620 actually heard
00:20:57.180 clear figures.
00:20:58.660 Yeah,
00:20:58.860 no,
00:20:59.120 we don't.
00:21:00.160 The Economist
00:21:00.940 had an
00:21:02.700 estimate of
00:21:03.740 Russian
00:21:04.220 fatalities,
00:21:05.660 this was about
00:21:06.280 a month or
00:21:06.820 two ago,
00:21:07.980 which estimated
00:21:08.960 about 40,000 to
00:21:09.920 50,000 Russian
00:21:10.940 fatalities,
00:21:11.840 which means a
00:21:12.320 huge casualty
00:21:13.260 rate,
00:21:13.860 because usually
00:21:14.940 casualties,
00:21:15.960 you know,
00:21:16.220 the wounded
00:21:16.760 come in
00:21:17.280 multiples of
00:21:18.000 the fatality
00:21:19.660 rate.
00:21:21.140 But that was
00:21:22.060 based on
00:21:22.820 sort of
00:21:23.320 second-tier
00:21:24.360 data,
00:21:24.820 because the
00:21:25.240 Russians are
00:21:25.700 not releasing
00:21:26.220 figures and
00:21:26.940 the Ukrainians
00:21:27.580 don't release
00:21:28.080 figures either.
00:21:29.780 I suspect the
00:21:31.200 Ukrainian figures
00:21:31.960 are much lower
00:21:32.740 because Ukrainians
00:21:33.620 haven't, like the
00:21:34.760 Russians, been
00:21:35.340 throwing convicts,
00:21:36.920 like cannon fodder
00:21:38.060 into battle and
00:21:39.620 not really caring
00:21:40.920 whether they
00:21:41.560 return alive or
00:21:42.680 not.
00:21:42.880 What do you
00:21:44.380 make of the
00:21:45.660 prospects of
00:21:46.740 the Ukrainians
00:21:47.340 now in
00:21:48.100 actually winning
00:21:49.280 the war or
00:21:50.060 winning it to
00:21:50.940 the point where
00:21:51.780 the tide has
00:21:53.300 turned in a
00:21:54.300 way that really
00:21:55.260 puts Russia
00:21:56.280 on the back
00:21:57.920 foot?
00:21:58.940 You know,
00:21:59.160 this war has
00:21:59.880 really mocked
00:22:01.260 concepts of
00:22:02.060 military expertise.
00:22:04.020 You know,
00:22:04.220 when Russia
00:22:04.740 first invaded,
00:22:05.660 I think the
00:22:06.140 CIA was
00:22:06.960 estimating 96
00:22:08.820 hours or
00:22:09.560 something like
00:22:10.040 that until
00:22:10.600 Kiev fell.
00:22:12.060 Then there
00:22:12.580 was a period
00:22:13.120 of cocksure-ness
00:22:14.500 where we
00:22:14.880 thought that
00:22:15.540 the Russians
00:22:16.000 would surely
00:22:16.700 fold completely
00:22:18.260 because of
00:22:18.780 their early
00:22:19.760 reversals.
00:22:21.080 We've been
00:22:21.400 surprised in
00:22:22.400 the last few
00:22:23.980 months since
00:22:24.620 the counter-offensive
00:22:25.300 began that
00:22:25.940 the Russians
00:22:26.960 are not
00:22:27.820 capitulating as
00:22:29.160 we thought they
00:22:29.720 would, that
00:22:30.640 there's more
00:22:31.140 morale in
00:22:31.820 Russian lines
00:22:32.520 than had been
00:22:33.580 reported.
00:22:34.380 So all of
00:22:34.880 that is a
00:22:35.540 long way of
00:22:36.020 saying that I'd
00:22:36.660 be a fool to
00:22:37.320 hazard a guess.
00:22:38.680 You could see
00:22:39.280 a situation in
00:22:40.140 which the
00:22:40.440 early weeks of
00:22:42.020 the counter-offensive
00:22:42.860 are a slog and
00:22:43.940 then Ukrainians
00:22:45.060 managed to
00:22:45.640 break through.
00:22:46.780 But look,
00:22:47.320 we're back to
00:22:48.080 fighting World
00:22:48.620 War I in
00:22:49.840 which, you
00:22:50.380 know, it's
00:22:51.340 trench warfare,
00:22:52.600 there are
00:22:52.820 artillery battles,
00:22:54.280 it's very hard
00:22:55.040 to get across
00:22:55.880 no man's land.
00:22:57.520 So the
00:22:58.220 Ukrainians have
00:22:59.020 a huge task
00:23:00.280 ahead of them
00:23:00.880 and it wouldn't
00:23:01.400 surprise me if
00:23:02.080 they make very
00:23:02.540 little progress.
00:23:04.200 So, yeah,
00:23:04.980 your point about
00:23:06.480 the failure of
00:23:07.700 expertise here
00:23:08.800 has more
00:23:10.440 global significance
00:23:11.620 because it
00:23:12.220 really seems to
00:23:12.860 be the heart
00:23:13.520 of the
00:23:14.580 Trumpian
00:23:15.180 isolationist
00:23:16.660 conspiracist
00:23:18.100 core over
00:23:19.640 there, which
00:23:20.080 again has
00:23:21.240 turned everything
00:23:21.780 upside down
00:23:22.460 or many things
00:23:23.080 upside down,
00:23:24.300 but it has
00:23:25.440 this kernel
00:23:26.860 of truth to
00:23:27.780 it, which is
00:23:28.180 that on many,
00:23:29.100 many fronts
00:23:29.580 our experts,
00:23:31.620 our elites,
00:23:32.580 have embarrassed
00:23:33.840 themselves in
00:23:35.400 their claims
00:23:36.500 to certainty.
00:23:37.740 I mean, if you
00:23:38.660 look at the
00:23:39.060 public health
00:23:40.160 messaging during
00:23:40.940 COVID and the
00:23:41.940 backlash against
00:23:43.120 it, I mean,
00:23:44.100 part of that
00:23:44.700 was there's a
00:23:46.060 fundamental
00:23:47.220 misunderstanding
00:23:48.280 about how
00:23:49.620 science works
00:23:50.360 and a failure
00:23:51.320 to recognize
00:23:51.920 that COVID
00:23:52.420 was a moving
00:23:53.000 target and,
00:23:53.760 of course,
00:23:54.000 we're going to
00:23:55.060 keep having to
00:23:55.660 revise our
00:23:56.300 opinion of what's
00:23:56.980 actually happening.
00:23:58.440 You know,
00:23:58.620 do vaccines
00:23:59.600 prevent transmission?
00:24:00.740 We hope so.
00:24:01.520 It looks like
00:24:02.020 they don't really
00:24:02.580 do a very good
00:24:03.080 job of that,
00:24:03.960 but all of that
00:24:04.720 gets scored as
00:24:05.840 just the utter
00:24:07.280 embarrassment of
00:24:08.740 the so-called
00:24:09.840 experts and
00:24:11.000 what replaces a
00:24:12.760 trust in
00:24:13.780 institutions and
00:24:14.660 experts is a
00:24:16.000 sense that
00:24:16.640 basically everyone's
00:24:18.920 opinion is the
00:24:19.920 equivalent of any
00:24:21.260 other person's
00:24:21.840 opinion and we
00:24:23.420 should all just
00:24:23.880 do our own
00:24:24.340 research about
00:24:25.440 COVID, about
00:24:26.180 mRNA, about
00:24:27.080 Ukraine, about
00:24:27.880 anything, and
00:24:28.900 you can't trust
00:24:30.360 these deep
00:24:31.420 state rent
00:24:32.700 seekers.
00:24:33.520 And so the
00:24:34.120 punchline that
00:24:35.100 many have
00:24:35.480 drawn, certainly
00:24:36.820 right of
00:24:37.720 center, is
00:24:38.220 that what
00:24:39.420 we need is
00:24:40.100 a proper
00:24:41.320 reboot, which
00:24:43.440 is, by
00:24:44.260 definition,
00:24:45.120 isolationist.
00:24:46.340 Where do we
00:24:47.520 ever get it
00:24:47.960 into our
00:24:48.200 head that we
00:24:48.640 need to be
00:24:48.980 the world's
00:24:49.680 cop?
00:24:50.500 How is it
00:24:51.220 that Ukraine,
00:24:52.620 which most
00:24:53.140 Americans can't
00:24:53.880 find on a
00:24:54.400 map, is
00:24:55.560 considered to
00:24:56.120 be a vital
00:24:56.660 national interest?
00:24:58.160 We apparently
00:24:58.640 have billions
00:24:59.220 to spare for
00:25:00.560 Ukrainian munitions,
00:25:02.340 but we can't
00:25:03.960 figure out how
00:25:04.760 to get the
00:25:05.560 homeless fentanyl
00:25:06.440 addicts off
00:25:07.120 the streets of
00:25:07.760 our most
00:25:09.020 important cities.
00:25:10.240 How do you
00:25:10.720 respond to
00:25:11.500 that eruption
00:25:12.820 of populist
00:25:14.740 discontent with
00:25:16.280 international
00:25:16.760 norms, with
00:25:17.800 institutions, with
00:25:19.260 experts, etc.?
00:25:20.680 Well, you're
00:25:21.620 raising two
00:25:22.500 somewhat distinct
00:25:23.500 points.
00:25:24.740 One of the, I
00:25:26.060 think, real
00:25:26.440 problems we
00:25:27.020 have in the
00:25:27.560 country is not
00:25:29.020 only that experts
00:25:30.020 failed, but
00:25:30.840 experts refuse to
00:25:32.680 acknowledge, or
00:25:33.900 too many experts
00:25:34.860 refuse to
00:25:35.580 acknowledge that
00:25:36.520 they failed.
00:25:37.960 And so, the
00:25:39.100 distrust that I
00:25:41.220 think is
00:25:41.620 pervasive in the
00:25:42.840 United States, I
00:25:43.700 mean, you look at
00:25:44.180 one institution
00:25:45.060 after another and
00:25:46.080 levels of trust
00:25:46.880 have just
00:25:47.340 plummeted, that
00:25:49.260 distrust is
00:25:50.320 well-founded, or
00:25:52.180 at least it's not
00:25:52.920 completely crazy.
00:25:55.040 Not only did
00:25:55.700 experts often
00:25:57.300 insist on
00:25:59.120 solutions that
00:26:00.520 turned out to be
00:26:01.400 inadequate, but
00:26:02.740 they did so with
00:26:03.740 consummate
00:26:05.100 arrogance.
00:26:06.720 And I think
00:26:07.420 that has, that
00:26:08.640 they have not
00:26:09.280 helped, they
00:26:10.320 have not helped
00:26:11.020 their case.
00:26:12.820 And by the
00:26:13.140 way, I mean, this
00:26:13.660 is not just in
00:26:14.360 terms of public
00:26:15.240 health, although
00:26:15.840 that's what you
00:26:16.680 were talking
00:26:17.480 about.
00:26:17.880 It's in one
00:26:18.500 institution,
00:26:20.320 one area
00:26:21.200 after another
00:26:22.580 where the
00:26:22.960 expert point
00:26:23.620 of view fell
00:26:24.760 short.
00:26:25.760 Now, the
00:26:26.000 second point,
00:26:26.880 which is the
00:26:27.440 idea of, like, we
00:26:28.040 just need a
00:26:28.580 reboot in
00:26:29.340 foreign policy.
00:26:30.480 I mean, when
00:26:30.720 people say, well,
00:26:31.260 most Americans
00:26:31.900 couldn't find
00:26:32.440 Ukraine on a
00:26:33.100 map, that to
00:26:34.160 me suggests that
00:26:34.920 Americans ought to
00:26:35.660 spend more time
00:26:36.280 looking at maps
00:26:37.100 because Ukraine is
00:26:38.100 not some obscure
00:26:38.860 little country,
00:26:40.100 six degrees to
00:26:41.020 the left of
00:26:41.660 nowhere.
00:26:42.320 It's at the
00:26:42.980 very heart of
00:26:44.140 Europe.
00:26:45.280 And the idea
00:26:46.360 that we have
00:26:46.920 spent all of
00:26:47.760 this money on
00:26:48.380 Ukraine that
00:26:49.120 could be
00:26:50.320 better spent
00:26:51.460 on treating
00:26:53.140 fentanyl or
00:26:54.200 shoring up the
00:26:55.080 border, it's
00:26:56.860 just a failure of
00:26:57.600 mathematics.
00:26:58.480 I mean, the
00:26:58.840 amount of money
00:26:59.380 we've spent on
00:27:00.140 Ukraine as a
00:27:01.340 percentage of
00:27:02.120 our total
00:27:02.620 budget, of
00:27:03.320 our total
00:27:03.840 resources, it's
00:27:05.320 a fraction of
00:27:06.360 a single
00:27:07.400 percentage.
00:27:08.620 I mean, 50
00:27:09.040 billion sounds
00:27:09.600 like a lot of
00:27:10.240 money, and
00:27:11.180 then you say,
00:27:11.720 well, what's
00:27:12.860 the budget of
00:27:13.440 the United
00:27:13.760 States?
00:27:14.200 It's, what,
00:27:15.540 five or six
00:27:16.920 trillion, so
00:27:17.600 you're not
00:27:17.940 talking about
00:27:18.740 devoting an
00:27:20.020 outsized share
00:27:20.760 of resources.
00:27:22.480 But the
00:27:22.800 truth is that
00:27:23.780 countries have
00:27:24.860 to be able to
00:27:25.640 do many
00:27:26.180 things at
00:27:27.360 once.
00:27:28.060 And so
00:27:28.520 what we're
00:27:29.600 devoting to
00:27:30.360 Ukraine is
00:27:31.220 important because
00:27:32.040 we want to
00:27:32.840 maintain a
00:27:33.680 world in
00:27:34.820 which dictators
00:27:35.800 aren't rampaging
00:27:37.180 everywhere and
00:27:38.040 getting stronger
00:27:38.800 and more
00:27:39.360 confident.
00:27:39.920 We want to
00:27:40.980 avoid a
00:27:41.500 situation like
00:27:43.000 the 1930s where
00:27:44.320 the dictators
00:27:44.940 combine and
00:27:46.060 we have to
00:27:46.720 face a
00:27:47.800 genuine global
00:27:49.100 crisis.
00:27:49.720 We want a
00:27:50.880 situation where
00:27:51.640 it's Ukrainians
00:27:53.060 fighting for
00:27:53.660 their freedom,
00:27:54.320 not Americans
00:27:55.000 fighting for
00:27:55.700 Ukrainians.
00:27:56.780 And then when
00:27:57.560 it comes to
00:27:58.280 other issues,
00:27:59.340 whether it's
00:27:59.660 the fentanyl
00:28:00.280 crisis or the
00:28:02.080 immigration
00:28:02.840 crisis, those
00:28:04.300 are separate
00:28:05.440 issues that you
00:28:06.160 have to
00:28:06.520 consider sort
00:28:07.900 of separately
00:28:08.620 and,
00:28:09.320 and,
00:28:09.920 and rationally,
00:28:11.120 I don't think
00:28:11.720 that if we
00:28:12.120 pulled up stakes
00:28:12.820 at Ukraine
00:28:13.340 tomorrow, we
00:28:14.600 would be an
00:28:15.120 inch closer to
00:28:16.280 addressing the
00:28:17.460 tragedies going
00:28:18.200 on in places
00:28:19.100 like Portland
00:28:19.760 or San
00:28:20.220 Francisco or,
00:28:21.220 or, or the
00:28:22.740 migration crisis
00:28:23.900 from, from
00:28:25.380 McAllen all the
00:28:26.460 way to
00:28:26.900 Manhattan.
00:28:28.200 So, let's
00:28:29.820 linger for a
00:28:30.320 moment on the
00:28:30.700 point you made
00:28:31.380 about the
00:28:32.420 failure of
00:28:33.100 experts and
00:28:34.180 institutions,
00:28:34.760 because I, I
00:28:36.200 fully agree.
00:28:37.160 And, you
00:28:37.740 know, some of
00:28:38.240 this, you
00:28:39.200 know, rather a
00:28:39.700 lot of it
00:28:40.160 had to do
00:28:40.840 with the
00:28:41.880 way woke
00:28:43.500 identitarian
00:28:44.260 nonsense was
00:28:45.260 vitiating many
00:28:46.440 of these
00:28:46.720 institutions,
00:28:47.580 you know,
00:28:47.840 your own
00:28:48.820 included.
00:28:50.020 No comment.
00:28:50.660 Yeah, so
00:28:51.280 the, you
00:28:52.380 know, I, I'm
00:28:53.840 hopeful that the
00:28:54.560 pendulum has
00:28:55.120 begun to swing
00:28:56.120 back to
00:28:56.980 something more
00:28:58.340 sane there.
00:28:59.680 I don't know if
00:29:00.100 you have a
00:29:00.800 sense of where
00:29:01.660 the culture is
00:29:02.380 moving, but
00:29:03.960 I'm just
00:29:04.640 wondering what
00:29:05.040 you think
00:29:05.640 institutions and
00:29:07.380 experts should
00:29:08.980 have done and
00:29:09.940 or, you
00:29:10.440 know, should
00:29:10.840 do now.
00:29:12.300 I mean, do
00:29:12.660 we need
00:29:12.980 something like a
00:29:13.860 truth and
00:29:14.520 reconciliation
00:29:15.000 commission around
00:29:16.300 expert opinion
00:29:17.720 or on what
00:29:19.700 score are
00:29:20.400 apologies
00:29:21.100 warranted and
00:29:22.380 what form would
00:29:24.100 you imagine
00:29:24.600 them taking?
00:29:25.560 And do you
00:29:25.840 have any
00:29:26.100 examples of
00:29:26.940 places that
00:29:27.640 seem really
00:29:28.820 egregious that
00:29:29.680 do cry out for
00:29:30.740 some kind of
00:29:31.500 reckoning?
00:29:32.040 Well, I
00:29:33.120 mean, the
00:29:33.460 first thought
00:29:34.280 is the
00:29:34.840 closure of
00:29:35.420 schools across
00:29:36.220 America during
00:29:37.180 the COVID,
00:29:38.120 during the
00:29:38.540 early phases of
00:29:39.600 the COVID
00:29:40.000 pandemic, which
00:29:40.980 wrecked
00:29:41.820 terrible,
00:29:42.480 wreaked
00:29:42.880 terrible damage
00:29:44.180 on young
00:29:45.060 children that
00:29:45.740 is going to
00:29:46.360 be years,
00:29:47.740 going to take
00:29:48.220 years to
00:29:49.080 repair.
00:29:50.120 And I think
00:29:50.460 the problem
00:29:50.980 is that we,
00:29:52.720 during the
00:29:53.060 COVID crisis,
00:29:54.240 we conflated
00:29:55.740 the interests
00:29:57.000 of public
00:29:57.640 health with
00:29:59.740 the public
00:30:00.440 interest.
00:30:01.060 That's to
00:30:02.600 say that
00:30:02.880 public health
00:30:03.380 is a part
00:30:04.120 of the
00:30:04.460 public
00:30:04.760 interest,
00:30:05.300 but it's
00:30:05.560 not the
00:30:05.900 sole part
00:30:06.420 of the
00:30:06.640 public
00:30:06.900 interest,
00:30:07.820 right?
00:30:08.440 I mean,
00:30:08.980 take another
00:30:09.680 example.
00:30:10.740 We could
00:30:11.140 save tens
00:30:12.060 of thousands
00:30:12.540 of lives
00:30:13.160 every day
00:30:13.980 or every
00:30:14.580 year if
00:30:15.860 we had a
00:30:16.760 national speed
00:30:17.420 limit of
00:30:17.980 30 miles an
00:30:18.680 hour,
00:30:19.120 okay?
00:30:20.080 We could.
00:30:20.700 Just overnight,
00:30:21.520 if we enforced
00:30:22.220 a 30-mile-an-hour
00:30:23.160 speed limit,
00:30:24.360 tens of thousands
00:30:24.980 of lives would
00:30:25.620 be saved.
00:30:26.200 So we would
00:30:26.660 be doing
00:30:27.100 something for
00:30:28.160 the sake of
00:30:28.660 public health,
00:30:30.000 but we would
00:30:30.500 be doing it
00:30:31.080 at a cost
00:30:31.580 that I don't
00:30:31.960 think anyone
00:30:32.560 listening to
00:30:33.360 this podcast
00:30:34.540 for a moment
00:30:35.400 would accept.
00:30:36.820 Why?
00:30:37.300 Because we
00:30:38.420 recognize that
00:30:39.220 the public
00:30:39.620 interest involves
00:30:41.260 a series of
00:30:42.000 trade-offs between
00:30:43.040 competing goods.
00:30:44.600 One of them is
00:30:45.220 public health,
00:30:45.940 but another one
00:30:46.520 is the interest
00:30:47.080 of children
00:30:47.720 getting to
00:30:49.240 school and
00:30:50.140 getting to
00:30:50.520 school in
00:30:50.940 front of an
00:30:51.580 actual teacher,
00:30:52.660 not in front
00:30:53.300 of a screen,
00:30:54.520 and socializing
00:30:55.940 and seeing
00:30:56.520 a person's
00:30:57.200 mouth move
00:30:58.620 and smile
00:31:00.020 and frown
00:31:00.800 and whatever.
00:31:02.380 And the
00:31:03.160 apology that's
00:31:03.920 owed by
00:31:04.300 public health
00:31:04.880 officials is
00:31:05.620 to say,
00:31:06.660 we big-footed
00:31:07.800 other areas
00:31:09.740 because we
00:31:10.960 thought that
00:31:11.540 the only thing
00:31:12.120 that mattered
00:31:12.580 in a pandemic
00:31:13.340 was saving
00:31:14.800 people from
00:31:15.400 COVID.
00:31:16.460 Now,
00:31:16.940 that's not to
00:31:17.720 say it doesn't
00:31:18.460 matter.
00:31:18.940 Of course it
00:31:19.680 matters,
00:31:20.280 right?
00:31:21.060 But it would
00:31:22.080 have indicated,
00:31:23.060 it would have
00:31:23.380 shown some
00:31:23.980 humility and
00:31:24.920 some sense
00:31:25.500 that they
00:31:25.960 should have
00:31:26.220 kept to
00:31:26.700 their own
00:31:27.160 lanes by
00:31:27.680 saying,
00:31:28.620 we advise
00:31:29.180 about a
00:31:29.580 public health
00:31:30.140 issue,
00:31:30.520 but we
00:31:30.780 understand and
00:31:31.620 recognize that
00:31:32.440 there were
00:31:32.900 other competing
00:31:34.060 interests.
00:31:35.460 And that goes,
00:31:36.220 by the way,
00:31:36.860 for all kinds
00:31:38.300 of things in
00:31:38.980 which you can
00:31:39.400 think of people
00:31:40.060 who have
00:31:40.400 expertise in
00:31:42.040 a given
00:31:42.500 subject,
00:31:43.980 presuming,
00:31:44.660 because they
00:31:45.140 have expertise
00:31:45.720 in a given
00:31:46.260 subject,
00:31:46.780 that they're
00:31:47.040 experts in
00:31:47.740 every related
00:31:48.480 subject.
00:31:49.040 I mean,
00:31:49.160 I'll give you
00:31:49.480 another example,
00:31:50.500 and this will
00:31:51.000 probably get me
00:31:51.600 into trouble,
00:31:52.280 right?
00:31:52.500 Say you
00:31:53.840 are a
00:31:54.860 climatologist
00:31:55.700 and you
00:31:56.700 know that
00:31:57.600 the Earth
00:31:58.020 is warming
00:31:58.860 and that
00:31:59.820 this is
00:32:00.160 going to
00:32:00.360 have major
00:32:01.880 downstream
00:32:02.680 effects for
00:32:03.760 humanity,
00:32:05.160 okay?
00:32:05.540 That does
00:32:06.100 not necessarily
00:32:06.880 make you an
00:32:07.640 expert in
00:32:08.860 economics,
00:32:09.640 it doesn't
00:32:10.040 make you an
00:32:10.580 expert in
00:32:11.240 politics,
00:32:11.900 it doesn't
00:32:12.240 make you an
00:32:12.700 expert in
00:32:13.620 a number of
00:32:14.320 related fields,
00:32:15.420 all of which
00:32:16.400 need to be
00:32:17.900 brought into
00:32:18.940 a large
00:32:19.660 conversation
00:32:20.380 about the
00:32:21.540 long-term
00:32:21.900 effects of
00:32:22.440 climate change.
00:32:23.120 You can
00:32:23.340 say those
00:32:23.700 effects are
00:32:24.320 real,
00:32:25.260 that they're
00:32:25.600 serious,
00:32:26.280 it's coming,
00:32:27.000 we have to
00:32:27.580 deal with
00:32:27.980 it,
00:32:28.340 but it
00:32:29.120 might mean
00:32:29.720 that the
00:32:30.260 right answer
00:32:31.040 isn't
00:32:31.520 completely
00:32:32.140 upending
00:32:32.760 the current
00:32:34.240 energy economy
00:32:35.300 for the sake
00:32:36.080 of technologies
00:32:36.800 that aren't
00:32:37.300 yet mature,
00:32:38.520 right?
00:32:39.000 And so I
00:32:40.060 just want to
00:32:40.400 be clear,
00:32:41.160 I'm not
00:32:41.980 saying the
00:32:43.100 views of
00:32:43.540 climatologists
00:32:44.340 aren't
00:32:44.800 important,
00:32:45.460 they are
00:32:45.980 important.
00:32:46.900 What I am
00:32:47.420 saying is that
00:32:48.000 if you're
00:32:48.260 looking at
00:32:48.880 a problem
00:32:50.340 that is as
00:32:51.060 large and
00:32:51.920 as vexing
00:32:52.580 as climate
00:32:53.260 change,
00:32:54.340 it can't
00:32:55.180 simply be
00:32:56.080 the climate
00:32:57.160 experts who
00:32:58.120 are telling
00:32:58.580 the rest of
00:32:59.740 the public
00:33:00.140 what to do.
00:33:00.960 There has to
00:33:01.520 be some
00:33:02.580 weighing of
00:33:03.200 competing
00:33:03.600 interests.
00:33:04.120 And you can
00:33:05.120 think of
00:33:05.540 many other
00:33:07.020 fields where
00:33:07.880 people who are
00:33:08.860 experts in one
00:33:09.760 subject have
00:33:11.100 tried to
00:33:11.840 impose themselves
00:33:13.260 on areas where
00:33:14.760 their expertise is
00:33:15.700 much more
00:33:16.140 limited.
00:33:16.460 Yeah,
00:33:17.200 I think the
00:33:18.300 concept of
00:33:19.440 trade-offs is
00:33:20.320 an important
00:33:21.260 one because
00:33:21.860 there are so
00:33:22.760 many situations
00:33:23.420 where we
00:33:24.300 imagine there
00:33:25.780 is just one
00:33:26.840 right solution
00:33:27.980 without acknowledging
00:33:29.600 that whatever
00:33:31.040 the best
00:33:31.680 satisficing
00:33:33.160 solution is,
00:33:34.780 it will represent
00:33:35.840 a trade-off
00:33:36.540 and if you
00:33:37.920 focus on
00:33:38.460 the other
00:33:39.920 half of that
00:33:40.420 trade-off,
00:33:41.140 it can seem
00:33:41.960 scarcely
00:33:42.480 tolerable.
00:33:43.720 You're often
00:33:44.260 picking between
00:33:45.180 the least
00:33:45.940 bad among
00:33:46.900 many bad
00:33:47.580 avenues.
00:33:49.200 But I'm
00:33:49.400 still struck
00:33:50.060 by, it
00:33:50.780 seems to me
00:33:51.540 there were
00:33:52.480 and are
00:33:52.940 a number
00:33:54.140 of variables
00:33:54.720 in play
00:33:55.400 that make
00:33:56.600 public
00:33:57.580 messaging
00:33:58.300 about anything,
00:33:59.200 public health,
00:34:00.120 foreign policy,
00:34:01.200 any major
00:34:02.700 public concern
00:34:03.920 somewhat
00:34:05.160 fraught.
00:34:06.060 And one
00:34:06.820 is there's
00:34:08.000 a kind
00:34:08.580 of paternalistic
00:34:09.920 slash
00:34:11.040 pragmatic
00:34:12.440 impulse
00:34:13.760 that you
00:34:14.300 can see
00:34:14.940 arising
00:34:15.940 where
00:34:16.420 officials,
00:34:18.600 experts
00:34:19.060 recognize
00:34:20.220 that they
00:34:20.860 are messaging
00:34:21.480 into a
00:34:22.700 kind of
00:34:23.440 circus
00:34:24.380 of misinformation
00:34:25.300 and half-truths
00:34:27.780 and lies
00:34:28.700 and grifting
00:34:30.000 conspiracy
00:34:30.900 theorizing
00:34:31.900 and, you know,
00:34:33.000 and this was
00:34:33.680 especially bad
00:34:35.220 when Trump
00:34:35.780 was president
00:34:36.420 and you
00:34:37.620 have a
00:34:38.780 president
00:34:39.200 who's
00:34:39.640 saying things
00:34:40.420 like, you know,
00:34:40.960 we have 15
00:34:41.940 cases and we're
00:34:42.660 not going to
00:34:42.920 have any more
00:34:43.520 and then it's
00:34:44.320 going to turn
00:34:44.640 into a cold
00:34:45.160 right after
00:34:45.620 that.
00:34:46.500 So figuring
00:34:47.300 out how to
00:34:47.860 talk to
00:34:48.360 people in a
00:34:49.640 way that leads
00:34:50.280 to the best
00:34:51.640 public health
00:34:52.400 outcomes, to
00:34:53.080 speak narrowly,
00:34:53.780 of COVID now,
00:34:55.180 is not a
00:34:56.120 goal that is
00:34:57.760 necessarily
00:34:58.500 achieved by
00:35:00.140 being as
00:35:01.680 rigorously and
00:35:03.120 comprehensively
00:35:04.420 honest, you know,
00:35:06.180 just throughout
00:35:07.060 the process,
00:35:07.880 right?
00:35:08.000 You could see
00:35:08.640 public health
00:35:09.380 officials essentially
00:35:10.960 talking to
00:35:11.460 children, right,
00:35:12.680 and just
00:35:13.060 saying, listen,
00:35:13.620 we know you're
00:35:14.160 all a bunch of
00:35:15.540 conspiracy-addled
00:35:16.740 maniacs, we're
00:35:17.940 going to try to
00:35:19.000 dumb this down to
00:35:20.060 a point where
00:35:20.700 you're just, you
00:35:21.380 know, most people
00:35:22.060 most of the time
00:35:22.840 are not going to
00:35:23.500 screw this up, so
00:35:24.480 yeah, get the
00:35:25.800 vaccine, you're
00:35:26.900 being a good
00:35:27.300 citizen by getting
00:35:28.020 the vaccine, it
00:35:28.780 will reduce
00:35:29.260 transmission, it's
00:35:30.640 safe.
00:35:31.360 Now we know that
00:35:32.140 if you double-click
00:35:33.340 on any one of
00:35:34.140 those claims, it's a
00:35:35.680 far more nuanced
00:35:36.720 conversation and
00:35:37.940 there's a risk-benefit
00:35:39.360 calculation to be
00:35:40.820 talked about with
00:35:41.540 any vaccine, but
00:35:42.660 it's much more of
00:35:43.540 a political than
00:35:44.500 it is a scientific
00:35:45.640 challenge to
00:35:47.400 communicate about
00:35:48.720 a pandemic, and
00:35:50.420 it was made
00:35:51.100 especially difficult
00:35:52.600 given how
00:35:54.340 shattered our
00:35:55.140 politics has
00:35:56.740 become by the
00:35:58.580 information siloing
00:35:59.700 allowed by social
00:36:01.020 media.
00:36:02.000 I find much
00:36:03.480 that happened
00:36:04.560 during COVID
00:36:05.480 as galling as
00:36:06.400 you do, and
00:36:07.420 you know, even
00:36:08.260 as galling as
00:36:08.940 many people
00:36:09.360 many MAGA
00:36:10.140 people found
00:36:10.760 it, but there
00:36:12.100 is this problem
00:36:12.860 of just how
00:36:13.500 do you, knowing
00:36:15.300 that every
00:36:15.940 scientifically
00:36:16.620 scrupulous nuance
00:36:17.780 is going to be
00:36:18.440 weaponized as, you
00:36:19.760 see, they don't
00:36:20.320 know anything, how
00:36:21.680 do you talk to
00:36:23.020 Trumpistan?
00:36:24.880 That's a great
00:36:25.340 question, and the
00:36:26.300 answer is who
00:36:27.000 knows, but I
00:36:27.760 think we would
00:36:28.420 have been better
00:36:28.940 served if public
00:36:30.780 health officials from
00:36:31.760 the get-go had
00:36:32.900 said, had
00:36:34.160 continuously
00:36:34.900 emphasized what
00:36:36.620 they don't know,
00:36:37.460 the limits of
00:36:39.140 their certainty.
00:36:41.260 There was an
00:36:41.820 element there
00:36:42.740 which was, we
00:36:44.360 better make this
00:36:45.640 real simple and
00:36:46.560 clear because people
00:36:47.660 are too stupid to
00:36:48.720 digest complex
00:36:50.280 information and
00:36:51.780 information that
00:36:52.660 has large gaps
00:36:54.920 in it.
00:36:56.280 So maybe, and I
00:36:58.760 don't know if this
00:36:59.380 would have worked,
00:37:00.100 but maybe if you
00:37:01.780 had had our
00:37:02.420 leading public
00:37:03.060 health officials
00:37:03.980 saying from the
00:37:05.920 beginning, we
00:37:06.940 think this vaccine
00:37:07.860 is safe, and on
00:37:08.840 balance, we think
00:37:09.580 it's a good idea
00:37:10.260 for you to take
00:37:11.040 it.
00:37:11.620 Is it going to
00:37:12.140 provide perfect
00:37:13.240 immunity?
00:37:14.080 Early studies
00:37:14.800 suggest that it
00:37:15.980 will really protect
00:37:17.060 you, but we
00:37:17.740 could be wrong, and
00:37:18.800 we know that
00:37:19.280 viruses tend to
00:37:20.240 mutate, so we
00:37:20.960 don't know what
00:37:21.400 it's going to do
00:37:22.040 the next round.
00:37:23.420 Are there risks
00:37:24.020 associated with it?
00:37:25.140 There are risks
00:37:25.580 associated with
00:37:26.800 every medicine.
00:37:28.240 On balance, we're
00:37:29.320 going to take it,
00:37:29.920 and we think you
00:37:30.540 should too.
00:37:31.860 Just, I mean,
00:37:33.060 something less
00:37:33.980 than that kind
00:37:34.960 of censorious,
00:37:37.060 we-know-best,
00:37:38.720 you-must-do-as-we-say
00:37:40.460 approach that was
00:37:42.800 the approach of
00:37:44.940 the public health
00:37:46.900 officials and
00:37:48.100 certainly the
00:37:48.960 Biden administration
00:37:49.880 in its early
00:37:51.080 days, then that
00:37:53.160 might have been
00:37:53.980 more persuasive
00:37:55.820 than the kind
00:37:58.040 of you-must-do-this
00:37:59.880 mentality, because
00:38:01.020 people don't like
00:38:02.700 necessarily being
00:38:03.640 told to inject
00:38:05.360 themselves with
00:38:06.480 relatively novel
00:38:08.520 medicines.
00:38:09.140 In fact, up until
00:38:10.080 10 years ago, you
00:38:10.980 know, we began this
00:38:12.000 conversation by
00:38:13.200 talking about
00:38:13.740 inversions, but up
00:38:15.520 until 10 or 20
00:38:16.460 years ago, it was
00:38:17.140 typically the left
00:38:18.160 that insisted on
00:38:19.480 very, very extensive
00:38:21.520 testing of all new
00:38:23.000 drugs because we
00:38:24.920 didn't want another
00:38:25.600 thalidomide, right?
00:38:26.680 We didn't want
00:38:28.060 another medicine
00:38:28.860 that seemed to
00:38:30.600 promise a cure
00:38:31.900 and then had
00:38:32.360 knock-on effects
00:38:33.100 5 or 10
00:38:33.820 unforeseen
00:38:34.920 consequences that
00:38:35.880 could be devastating
00:38:36.940 even if only to a
00:38:38.580 relatively small
00:38:39.460 fraction of the
00:38:41.580 people who took
00:38:42.200 the medication.
00:38:43.300 So it was the
00:38:44.460 left that talked a
00:38:45.500 lot about the
00:38:46.020 precautionary
00:38:46.620 principle.
00:38:47.180 In fact, back 20
00:38:48.480 years ago, all of
00:38:49.780 the kind of anti-vax
00:38:51.420 woo-woo-ism seemed
00:38:53.540 to me to be coming
00:38:54.560 from kind of
00:38:55.580 California lefties
00:38:57.660 and people who
00:38:59.080 believed in herbal
00:39:00.420 solutions instead of
00:39:01.940 antibiotics.
00:39:03.420 And then that,
00:39:04.180 again, kind of
00:39:04.860 flipped completely
00:39:06.060 in the last 5 or
00:39:07.840 10 years.
00:39:08.400 Maybe not
00:39:08.800 completely because
00:39:09.480 there's RFK Jr.,
00:39:11.200 but it flipped
00:39:11.900 substantially.
00:39:13.240 Yeah, well, he's
00:39:14.680 kind of the fulcrum
00:39:16.060 or one fulcrum of
00:39:17.820 the flipping because
00:39:19.700 he obviously has
00:39:21.100 garnered a lot of
00:39:22.480 support from
00:39:24.620 Trump's cult in a
00:39:26.560 way.
00:39:26.880 I mean, you know,
00:39:27.480 just direct funding
00:39:28.500 and, you know, the
00:39:29.320 same people who are
00:39:30.660 open-minded about
00:39:31.400 Trump are very
00:39:32.080 open-minded about
00:39:32.920 RFK Jr., it seems.
00:39:35.160 You know, I had the
00:39:36.180 weirdest experience,
00:39:37.340 which is, you know,
00:39:37.820 I mean, I just sort
00:39:38.560 of took RFK Jr.
00:39:40.220 from the get-go to
00:39:41.400 be ridiculous and a
00:39:42.800 complete crank.
00:39:43.960 And then a friend of
00:39:45.340 mine, very intelligent
00:39:47.320 person of centrist
00:39:50.180 Democratic views, or
00:39:51.960 at least that's how I
00:39:52.900 had known her,
00:39:53.900 confessed to me that
00:39:55.420 she was thinking—this
00:39:56.720 was before the
00:39:57.420 anti-Semitic stuff, so
00:39:59.140 maybe something has
00:40:00.000 changed—but confessed
00:40:00.760 to me that she was
00:40:02.160 seriously thinking about
00:40:03.320 voting for him in the
00:40:04.360 primary.
00:40:04.980 So I don't think his
00:40:06.200 appeal should be
00:40:07.080 underestimated.
00:40:08.000 I mean, I was sort of
00:40:09.140 stunned.
00:40:09.740 I was like, the guy's a
00:40:11.460 crank.
00:40:11.960 I mean, give me a
00:40:12.740 break.
00:40:13.640 But what she found she
00:40:16.060 was responding to, I
00:40:17.900 think, were two things.
00:40:19.080 She didn't like the
00:40:20.360 way RFK Jr.
00:40:22.260 was sort of being
00:40:23.240 maligned and censored
00:40:25.560 and derided.
00:40:27.460 She liked what she
00:40:29.360 thought was sort of his
00:40:31.260 forthright belief in
00:40:33.000 free speech and open
00:40:34.260 debate, which I think
00:40:35.220 he's very cleverly
00:40:37.260 playing up.
00:40:39.200 And, you know, she'd
00:40:40.140 always been slightly on
00:40:41.780 the more homeopathic
00:40:43.560 side of the medicine,
00:40:45.920 you know, like in a
00:40:47.200 kind of an everyday
00:40:47.960 world, not like she
00:40:49.020 wasn't vaccinating her
00:40:50.800 kids or anything of
00:40:51.780 the sort, but just
00:40:52.880 believed that we're an
00:40:54.420 over-medicated society.
00:40:56.220 And so there is a, she
00:40:58.260 represents, I mean,
00:40:59.280 this is an anecdote of
00:41:00.820 one, so I don't want to
00:41:01.720 make too much of it.
00:41:03.220 But I remember thinking
00:41:04.480 after she told me this,
00:41:05.460 I said, geez, you know,
00:41:06.860 if someone as sane and
00:41:08.980 bright and, you know,
00:41:10.340 if I may say normal, is
00:41:11.600 responding to RFK's
00:41:13.100 message that way,
00:41:15.080 that maybe the base of
00:41:17.380 his support is much
00:41:18.400 wider than I suspect.
00:41:21.700 People who wind up
00:41:22.640 supporting RFK Jr.
00:41:24.780 and similarly fringe and
00:41:27.240 crankish voices, in my
00:41:29.760 view, are often led
00:41:31.480 there by the heuristic
00:41:33.140 that it's, yeah, whenever
00:41:34.720 you're in the business of
00:41:36.120 trying to demonize someone
00:41:38.220 to the point of silencing
00:41:39.340 them, whenever you're
00:41:40.200 deplatforming someone,
00:41:41.420 whenever you're saying
00:41:42.060 you're not going to
00:41:42.680 platform someone, even
00:41:43.680 just using this term
00:41:45.640 platforming, you seem
00:41:47.300 like you have something
00:41:48.080 to hide, right?
00:41:48.960 You're afraid of
00:41:50.680 conversation, right?
00:41:51.860 And we have this basic
00:41:53.380 assumption that sunlight
00:41:54.880 is the best disinfectant,
00:41:56.380 right?
00:41:56.560 So if there's, if he's
00:41:58.000 wrong about anything
00:41:59.080 material, that will be
00:42:00.740 exposed if you just
00:42:01.780 talk to him, right?
00:42:02.720 So why not talk to him?
00:42:03.660 Why not just put him on
00:42:04.400 the Joe Rogan podcast for
00:42:05.600 four hours and let him
00:42:07.240 roll?
00:42:08.100 You know, and all these
00:42:09.140 people complaining about
00:42:10.100 that, they seem scared
00:42:11.600 of something and they
00:42:12.680 claim it's misinformation,
00:42:14.460 but it's much easier to
00:42:16.260 see them as shills for
00:42:17.860 the establishment who
00:42:19.000 are ruled by bad
00:42:20.260 incentives and captured
00:42:21.900 by the ad dollars of the
00:42:23.900 pharmaceutical industry
00:42:24.840 and they're trying to
00:42:26.120 prop up this old world
00:42:27.620 that has been fully
00:42:29.040 discredited by recent
00:42:30.500 stress tests.
00:42:32.060 If you're scared of
00:42:32.940 RFK Jr., you know,
00:42:33.980 you're, you are
00:42:35.080 untrustworthy.
00:42:35.960 I want to hear him now.
00:42:37.560 And that extends all the
00:42:38.620 way to somebody like Alex
00:42:39.600 Jones, right?
00:42:40.360 He's just, you know,
00:42:41.260 why wouldn't you talk to
00:42:42.180 Alex Jones?
00:42:42.880 You know, he might be
00:42:43.760 right that certain frogs
00:42:45.520 are becoming gay and
00:42:46.860 maybe that has implications
00:42:48.300 for what's happening to
00:42:49.740 humans and that, but this
00:42:51.220 idea that we don't have a
00:42:53.200 misinformation problem,
00:42:54.260 we merely have a
00:42:55.320 stifling of free expression
00:42:56.480 problem, is profoundly naive
00:42:59.500 when you look at this
00:43:01.080 apparatus we've built, this
00:43:03.080 kind of hallucination
00:43:04.140 machine that is just
00:43:05.340 algorithmically boosting
00:43:06.840 nonsense and divisive lies
00:43:09.900 and people obviously can't
00:43:12.940 navigate it on their own.
00:43:14.200 I mean, the people are,
00:43:15.420 people believe the impossible
00:43:17.480 in the wake of all this
00:43:19.700 and, you know, it really is
00:43:21.960 showing the...
00:43:24.040 Look, people are going to
00:43:24.900 believe and have believed
00:43:26.760 at any given time,
00:43:28.440 including long before
00:43:29.760 Twitter and Facebook
00:43:31.660 could turbocharge
00:43:34.000 misinformation
00:43:35.000 or disinformation.
00:43:37.460 People have believed
00:43:38.120 all kinds of crap.
00:43:39.580 That's just in the nature
00:43:40.640 of a free society.
00:43:41.880 I mean, you can go back
00:43:42.860 at any point in history
00:43:44.500 and find people
00:43:45.820 fully subscribed to
00:43:47.800 preposterous conspiracy
00:43:49.620 theories, whether it was,
00:43:51.740 you know, who killed JFK?
00:43:53.300 I grew up with that.
00:43:54.660 You know, answer
00:43:55.680 Lee Harvey Oswald,
00:43:57.020 although I'm sure someone
00:43:57.800 listening to this podcast
00:43:58.780 is going to tear that around.
00:43:59.980 JFK, his nephew,
00:44:01.560 begs to differ, so...
00:44:02.540 Well, I mean,
00:44:03.420 the John Birch Society,
00:44:05.840 I mean, just go back
00:44:08.060 in history and you will find
00:44:09.260 a tremendous amount
00:44:10.060 of misinformation
00:44:10.700 circulating and often
00:44:13.280 commonly believed.
00:44:15.060 And that is in the nature
00:44:16.780 of a free society
00:44:17.780 that a lot of falsehood
00:44:20.420 flourishes, proliferates,
00:44:22.980 sinks into people's consciousness.
00:44:24.880 There's a limit,
00:44:26.080 and I think a very sharp limit,
00:44:27.540 on A, how much of that
00:44:29.480 can be stripped out.
00:44:31.080 You know, I might say that,
00:44:32.040 by the way, certain religious dogmas
00:44:33.480 strike me as a bunch
00:44:34.400 of ridiculous misinformation,
00:44:36.000 but I'll get myself
00:44:37.040 into trouble
00:44:37.640 if I move further
00:44:39.400 down that path, too.
00:44:40.000 You'll get no argument here.
00:44:42.020 I know that,
00:44:43.200 but it's sort of
00:44:44.400 to one side
00:44:45.480 of my point here.
00:44:47.080 Yeah.
00:44:47.380 But what I worry about
00:44:48.680 is that when you try
00:44:49.720 to suppress it
00:44:50.620 and you try to use
00:44:51.740 powerful tools
00:44:52.920 like the Twitter sensors
00:44:54.760 or the Facebook sensors
00:44:55.900 or government
00:44:57.240 sending messages
00:44:58.840 to social media companies
00:45:01.160 to shut down
00:45:02.840 certain veins of opinion,
00:45:04.960 that the real effect
00:45:06.420 of those acts
00:45:07.980 of half-assed censorship
00:45:09.300 is to actually turbocharge
00:45:11.540 the misinformation
00:45:12.300 not to dispel it, right?
00:45:14.740 Because it adds
00:45:15.740 a veneer
00:45:18.160 of kind of
00:45:19.660 persecution
00:45:20.780 or even martyrdom
00:45:22.300 to those
00:45:23.380 who are
00:45:24.120 perhaps
00:45:24.900 misinforming people,
00:45:26.720 right?
00:45:27.400 Because they think,
00:45:28.640 not only
00:45:29.140 am I
00:45:30.840 just being
00:45:32.260 persecuted for,
00:45:33.480 you know,
00:45:33.680 I'm trying to speak
00:45:35.000 my mind
00:45:35.500 and I'm being persecuted
00:45:36.380 for it,
00:45:37.280 and other people
00:45:37.980 respond to this.
00:45:38.880 I suspect that Alex Jones'
00:45:40.840 profile,
00:45:42.140 and I mean,
00:45:42.380 he's one of the most
00:45:43.220 detestable individuals
00:45:44.460 in American life
00:45:45.600 today,
00:45:46.580 but I suspect
00:45:48.300 that his profile
00:45:49.300 was, if anything,
00:45:50.620 kind of elevated
00:45:51.760 by the attention
00:45:52.960 that was given
00:45:53.780 to what he has to say.
00:45:55.940 You know,
00:45:56.060 I have zero sympathy
00:45:57.480 for the guy.
00:45:58.080 I think he's
00:45:58.920 revolting and evil,
00:46:00.940 particularly for what
00:46:01.760 he said about
00:46:02.420 the murders
00:46:03.960 in Sandy Hook.
00:46:05.960 But we do a lot,
00:46:07.440 those of us
00:46:08.040 who are in the business
00:46:08.900 of trying to be,
00:46:10.540 to offer good information
00:46:12.020 or at least
00:46:12.720 a sound
00:46:13.940 and well-based
00:46:14.600 analysis,
00:46:15.760 don't do ourselves
00:46:16.580 or our cause
00:46:17.880 any favors
00:46:18.720 when we're trying
00:46:19.520 to shut
00:46:20.880 other voices down
00:46:22.380 because we
00:46:22.900 declare that
00:46:23.980 they're beyond the pale
00:46:24.980 and anything
00:46:25.480 they have to say
00:46:26.200 is, you know,
00:46:27.760 not just wrong
00:46:28.740 but evil.
00:46:29.960 So,
00:46:30.260 in the ecology
00:46:31.240 of a free society,
00:46:32.520 I mean,
00:46:32.700 I think the ecological
00:46:33.540 metaphor is a good one.
00:46:35.060 Like,
00:46:35.620 if you want a healthy ecology,
00:46:36.880 you're going to have to accept
00:46:37.700 that there are going
00:46:38.180 to be mosquitoes
00:46:38.900 and ticks
00:46:40.080 and termites
00:46:40.740 and all kinds
00:46:41.420 of creepy-crawly things
00:46:42.660 that in and of themselves
00:46:44.060 are not very attractive
00:46:45.240 but perform
00:46:46.560 a kind of function
00:46:47.560 in the overall well-being
00:46:48.940 of a given
00:46:50.100 truth ecosystem.
00:46:51.820 And part of,
00:46:52.720 this is maybe getting
00:46:53.740 a little into the weeds,
00:46:55.040 but, you know,
00:46:56.160 in the ecology
00:46:57.020 of truth,
00:46:57.840 you actually have
00:46:58.620 to understand
00:46:59.480 and be acquainted
00:47:00.940 with what is false,
00:47:02.920 right?
00:47:03.720 Like,
00:47:04.060 you cannot understand
00:47:06.160 truth
00:47:07.160 in the absence
00:47:08.580 of its opposite.
00:47:10.240 efforts to get rid
00:47:12.740 of what's
00:47:13.200 called misinformation
00:47:14.660 or what might
00:47:15.620 be misinformation
00:47:16.400 aren't,
00:47:17.880 in fact,
00:47:18.260 serving
00:47:18.680 the ultimate
00:47:20.300 cause of truth,
00:47:21.260 if that's what
00:47:21.680 you want to call it,
00:47:22.780 because it has
00:47:24.000 to be present
00:47:24.760 in order for us
00:47:25.620 to understand
00:47:26.340 what is truer
00:47:27.840 than not.
00:47:29.380 Right.
00:47:29.780 Yeah,
00:47:30.000 I mean,
00:47:30.160 the only caveat
00:47:31.640 I would add here
00:47:32.340 is that
00:47:32.720 when you're talking
00:47:33.980 about social media
00:47:34.740 in particular,
00:47:35.360 it's not really
00:47:36.440 a question of
00:47:37.240 platforming
00:47:38.380 or not necessarily,
00:47:39.800 it's just
00:47:40.180 the question
00:47:41.040 of what the
00:47:42.140 algorithm does
00:47:43.020 to boost
00:47:43.740 misinformation
00:47:44.780 and outrage
00:47:46.360 preferentially,
00:47:47.440 right?
00:47:47.640 So it's the
00:47:48.240 signal boost
00:47:48.920 that is the
00:47:49.880 unique feature
00:47:50.600 here,
00:47:51.040 which is genuinely
00:47:52.020 new.
00:47:53.700 And if we...
00:47:54.720 That's a fair point.
00:47:55.720 That's a perfectly
00:47:56.300 logical fair point.
00:47:58.120 And you can,
00:47:58.600 and you have to,
00:47:59.520 you know,
00:47:59.960 to do nothing
00:48:00.560 is still an
00:48:01.360 editorial decision,
00:48:02.520 right?
00:48:02.660 Like,
00:48:02.880 you have to tune
00:48:04.000 the algorithm
00:48:04.500 one way or the other,
00:48:05.360 and if you're
00:48:06.300 going to flatten
00:48:06.760 everything,
00:48:07.420 well,
00:48:07.560 then flatten it.
00:48:08.160 If you're going
00:48:08.480 to try to boost
00:48:09.480 better information,
00:48:10.760 well,
00:48:10.900 that's its own
00:48:11.580 choice.
00:48:12.380 But if you've
00:48:13.400 consciously created
00:48:14.760 an algorithm
00:48:15.260 that you can now
00:48:16.080 see is boosting
00:48:17.480 divisive lies
00:48:18.880 faster than
00:48:19.600 anything else
00:48:20.300 and you're
00:48:20.720 maintaining it
00:48:21.560 because your
00:48:22.000 business model,
00:48:23.320 you know,
00:48:24.060 depends on you
00:48:24.800 doing so,
00:48:25.760 well,
00:48:25.920 then you've,
00:48:26.320 you know,
00:48:26.560 you've built
00:48:26.920 an outrage machine
00:48:27.780 and that's the
00:48:29.340 status quo
00:48:30.240 that I think
00:48:30.820 many of us
00:48:31.940 are worried about.
00:48:32.380 That's true.
00:48:32.740 I mean,
00:48:32.900 I guess there are
00:48:33.540 two points
00:48:35.040 that need
00:48:35.400 to be
00:48:35.660 considered
00:48:35.980 and I fully
00:48:36.820 accept what
00:48:37.400 you said.
00:48:38.400 Number one
00:48:38.960 is are you
00:48:39.720 sure when
00:48:40.720 you are
00:48:41.140 trying to
00:48:42.240 root out
00:48:42.800 misinformation
00:48:43.360 that you are
00:48:44.160 in fact
00:48:44.520 rooting out
00:48:44.980 misinformation
00:48:45.500 and the
00:48:46.180 example of
00:48:46.800 that that
00:48:47.800 comes to
00:48:48.220 mind is
00:48:48.700 Facebook's
00:48:49.340 ban on
00:48:49.780 any mention
00:48:50.380 of the
00:48:51.640 Wuhan
00:48:52.300 Virology
00:48:53.340 Institute
00:48:53.700 as a
00:48:54.720 potential
00:48:55.080 source
00:48:55.700 for the
00:48:56.820 pandemic
00:48:57.280 where they
00:48:57.880 had
00:48:58.460 effectively
00:48:58.900 banned
00:48:59.400 it
00:48:59.680 until
00:49:00.140 it turned
00:49:01.440 out it
00:49:01.740 was actually
00:49:02.480 a perfectly
00:49:02.940 well-grounded
00:49:04.260 hypothesis
00:49:06.380 so
00:49:07.280 question
00:49:08.300 number
00:49:08.540 one
00:49:08.840 is
00:49:09.160 do you
00:49:10.640 trust
00:49:10.920 the
00:49:11.120 gatekeepers
00:49:11.740 when it
00:49:12.240 comes
00:49:12.540 to
00:49:12.900 deciding
00:49:13.880 what is
00:49:14.580 good
00:49:15.520 information
00:49:16.140 versus
00:49:16.580 what's
00:49:16.980 bad
00:49:17.260 information
00:49:17.780 I think
00:49:18.100 that's
00:49:20.120 a very
00:49:21.080 important
00:49:21.440 consideration
00:49:22.120 the second
00:49:22.960 thing is
00:49:23.560 did Trump
00:49:24.380 become more
00:49:25.160 potent or
00:49:25.700 less potent
00:49:26.320 after he
00:49:26.880 was banned
00:49:27.440 by Twitter
00:49:28.180 judging by
00:49:29.220 how he's
00:49:29.640 doing at
00:49:29.960 the polls
00:49:30.440 after a
00:49:32.540 three-year
00:49:32.900 ban
00:49:33.300 more potent
00:49:34.400 now I
00:49:35.040 don't know
00:49:35.280 if there's
00:49:35.680 a causation
00:49:36.920 there
00:49:37.300 but the
00:49:38.860 extent to
00:49:39.520 which
00:49:39.820 the extent
00:49:40.840 to which
00:49:41.140 his efforts
00:49:42.380 to
00:49:42.880 deplatform
00:49:44.080 him
00:49:44.480 have
00:49:45.340 backfired
00:49:46.140 is another
00:49:47.260 issue
00:49:47.680 I think
00:49:48.260 that's
00:49:48.920 worth
00:49:49.340 considering
00:49:49.740 I don't
00:49:50.020 have a
00:49:50.280 great
00:49:50.500 answer
00:49:50.940 but my
00:49:52.000 general
00:49:52.800 guess is
00:49:53.240 that when
00:49:53.460 you try
00:49:53.980 to deplatform
00:49:54.820 prominent
00:49:55.480 people
00:49:55.980 you're
00:49:56.800 giving
00:49:57.160 them
00:49:57.540 a
00:49:57.920 patina
00:49:58.860 of
00:49:59.580 victimization
00:50:01.040 which
00:50:01.680 benefits
00:50:03.520 them
00:50:04.080 in ways
00:50:05.020 that
00:50:05.320 those
00:50:05.940 who
00:50:06.500 have
00:50:06.640 deplatformed
00:50:07.280 them
00:50:07.500 never
00:50:07.860 intended
00:50:08.300 here's
00:50:10.020 a
00:50:10.300 case
00:50:11.740 study
00:50:12.120 we
00:50:12.640 could
00:50:13.220 analyze
00:50:13.960 which
00:50:14.240 actually
00:50:14.560 you
00:50:14.860 could
00:50:15.280 do
00:50:15.400 a
00:50:15.500 bit
00:50:15.600 of
00:50:15.700 a
00:50:15.860 post
00:50:16.140 mortem
00:50:16.560 on
00:50:17.060 my
00:50:18.400 still
00:50:19.520 not
00:50:19.940 completely
00:50:20.720 formed
00:50:21.140 opinion
00:50:21.560 of the
00:50:22.580 Hunter
00:50:22.780 Biden
00:50:23.100 laptop
00:50:23.560 because
00:50:24.320 it
00:50:24.900 really
00:50:25.700 has
00:50:25.980 all
00:50:26.280 of
00:50:26.420 these
00:50:26.740 issues
00:50:27.380 in
00:50:27.580 miniature
00:50:27.880 so
00:50:28.600 tell
00:50:28.760 me
00:50:28.940 what
00:50:29.240 if
00:50:29.360 anything
00:50:29.580 is
00:50:29.780 wrong
00:50:30.160 with
00:50:30.440 this
00:50:30.640 many
00:50:31.300 people
00:50:31.540 are
00:50:31.660 confused
00:50:32.000 about
00:50:32.320 what
00:50:32.700 I
00:50:32.840 thought
00:50:33.140 or
00:50:33.380 what
00:50:33.620 I
00:50:33.760 think
00:50:33.980 and
00:50:34.100 what
00:50:34.220 I
00:50:34.320 thought
00:50:34.460 at
00:50:34.580 the
00:50:34.660 time
00:50:34.900 because
00:50:35.220 of
00:50:35.840 some
00:50:36.120 misleading
00:50:37.040 clips
00:50:38.300 spread
00:50:38.480 on
00:50:38.620 social
00:50:38.840 media
00:50:39.140 but
00:50:39.440 so
00:50:40.060 at
00:50:40.180 the
00:50:40.460 time
00:50:40.960 and I
00:50:42.080 still
00:50:42.400 my
00:50:43.020 position
00:50:43.560 really
00:50:43.780 hasn't
00:50:44.000 changed
00:50:44.300 here
00:50:44.480 I
00:50:45.240 thought
00:50:45.420 it
00:50:45.500 was
00:50:45.600 a
00:50:45.820 genuinely
00:50:46.220 difficult
00:50:46.760 call
00:50:47.520 journalistically
00:50:48.920 whether
00:50:50.300 to
00:50:50.780 pay
00:50:51.640 attention
00:50:52.140 to
00:50:52.700 the
00:50:52.860 laptop
00:50:53.400 10
00:50:53.800 days
00:50:54.120 before
00:50:54.600 the
00:50:55.140 election
00:50:55.500 given
00:50:55.900 what
00:50:56.180 had
00:50:56.320 happened
00:50:56.620 in
00:50:56.840 2016
00:50:57.360 when
00:50:57.920 Comey
00:50:58.860 reopened
00:50:59.400 the
00:50:59.940 Hillary
00:51:00.580 Clinton
00:51:00.860 email
00:51:01.480 case
00:51:01.940 and we
00:51:02.200 knew
00:51:02.420 that
00:51:03.340 though
00:51:03.940 her
00:51:04.220 candidacy
00:51:05.040 might
00:51:05.240 have
00:51:05.340 failed
00:51:05.520 for
00:51:05.700 other
00:51:05.860 reasons
00:51:06.160 we
00:51:06.760 knew
00:51:07.240 that
00:51:07.460 was
00:51:07.780 the
00:51:08.300 coup de
00:51:08.960 gras
00:51:09.260 with
00:51:09.920 respect
00:51:10.240 to
00:51:10.520 immediately
00:51:11.820 hour
00:51:12.300 by
00:51:12.480 hour
00:51:12.680 what
00:51:12.880 happened
00:51:13.220 to
00:51:13.740 the
00:51:13.880 polls
00:51:14.280 and
00:51:15.380 for
00:51:15.960 obvious
00:51:16.320 reasons
00:51:16.860 anyone
00:51:17.480 who
00:51:17.960 was
00:51:18.340 worried
00:51:19.060 about
00:51:19.360 Trump
00:51:20.060 getting a
00:51:20.800 second
00:51:21.040 term
00:51:21.500 him being
00:51:22.700 a sitting
00:51:23.320 president
00:51:23.780 who
00:51:24.140 would not
00:51:24.800 commit to
00:51:25.300 a peaceful
00:51:25.640 transfer of
00:51:26.180 power
00:51:26.440 or
00:51:27.040 the
00:51:27.140 idea
00:51:27.640 to
00:51:27.780 the
00:51:27.980 idea
00:51:28.180 to
00:51:28.340 be
00:51:28.500 beholden
00:51:29.320 to
00:51:29.660 Rudy
00:51:30.060 Giuliani
00:51:30.520 timetable
00:51:31.240 and
00:51:31.620 take
00:51:31.900 the
00:51:32.080 bait
00:51:32.340 ten
00:51:32.620 days
00:51:32.860 before
00:51:33.100 the
00:51:33.260 election
00:51:33.600 and
00:51:33.920 start
00:51:34.460 putting
00:51:34.800 front
00:51:35.360 page
00:51:35.680 articles
00:51:36.140 about
00:51:36.400 the
00:51:36.540 Hunter
00:51:36.700 Biden
00:51:36.920 laptop
00:51:37.420 on
00:51:38.280 the
00:51:38.380 cover
00:51:38.560 of
00:51:38.680 your
00:51:38.780 newspaper
00:51:39.220 that
00:51:40.020 just
00:51:40.240 seemed
00:51:40.760 idiotic
00:51:41.980 and
00:51:42.240 so
00:51:42.460 I
00:51:42.800 thought
00:51:43.800 journalistically
00:51:45.000 it would
00:51:45.960 have been
00:51:46.380 both
00:51:46.940 prudent
00:51:47.620 and
00:51:48.260 defensible
00:51:49.300 to say
00:51:49.880 listen
00:51:50.260 whatever's
00:51:51.060 true in
00:51:51.320 this
00:51:51.460 laptop
00:51:51.880 is going
00:51:52.640 to be
00:51:52.820 true
00:51:53.200 two
00:51:54.060 weeks
00:51:54.300 from
00:51:54.480 now
00:51:54.740 we're
00:51:55.660 going
00:51:55.760 to
00:51:55.860 slow
00:51:56.120 roll
00:51:56.460 our
00:51:56.760 consideration
00:51:57.680 of
00:51:57.860 this
00:51:58.040 knowing
00:51:58.680 that
00:51:58.880 this
00:51:59.000 was
00:51:59.160 dropped
00:51:59.520 on
00:51:59.740 us
00:51:59.940 as
00:52:00.180 an
00:52:00.300 October
00:52:00.620 surprise
00:52:01.160 set
00:52:02.220 to
00:52:02.440 detonate
00:52:02.960 with
00:52:03.280 just
00:52:03.580 enough
00:52:03.840 time
00:52:04.260 to
00:52:04.700 get
00:52:05.300 it
00:52:05.480 to
00:52:05.720 derail
00:52:06.320 the
00:52:06.660 campaign
00:52:07.660 but
00:52:07.940 not
00:52:08.140 enough
00:52:08.360 time
00:52:08.620 to
00:52:08.780 fully
00:52:09.360 vet
00:52:09.760 all
00:52:10.000 this
00:52:10.160 information
00:52:10.620 and
00:52:10.900 figure
00:52:11.140 out
00:52:11.380 what's
00:52:12.000 Russian
00:52:12.400 disinformation
00:52:13.460 and
00:52:13.940 if
00:52:14.460 anything
00:52:14.780 and
00:52:15.040 what
00:52:15.260 isn't
00:52:15.820 there's
00:52:16.040 every
00:52:16.220 reason
00:52:16.460 to
00:52:16.600 worry
00:52:17.220 that
00:52:17.440 this
00:52:17.760 could
00:52:18.000 be
00:52:18.180 Russian
00:52:18.500 disinformation
00:52:19.040 and
00:52:20.060 so
00:52:20.300 we're
00:52:20.480 just
00:52:20.620 going
00:52:21.660 to
00:52:21.780 wait
00:52:22.160 until
00:52:22.780 after
00:52:23.080 the
00:52:23.260 election
00:52:23.560 to
00:52:23.880 really
00:52:24.560 do
00:52:24.900 a
00:52:25.020 deep
00:52:25.180 dive
00:52:25.440 on
00:52:25.600 this
00:52:25.800 so
00:52:26.320 journalistically
00:52:26.980 that
00:52:27.380 seemed
00:52:28.640 a
00:52:29.220 plausible
00:52:29.600 response
00:52:30.120 to
00:52:30.280 me
00:52:30.440 and
00:52:30.540 a
00:52:30.640 defensible
00:52:30.980 one
00:52:31.280 although
00:52:31.620 admittedly
00:52:32.660 still
00:52:33.180 somewhat
00:52:33.740 depressing
00:52:34.580 one
00:52:35.040 you know
00:52:35.840 my
00:52:36.060 bias
00:52:36.640 being
00:52:36.940 toward
00:52:37.340 actually
00:52:38.140 digging
00:52:38.660 in
00:52:38.900 and
00:52:39.060 figuring
00:52:39.280 out
00:52:39.460 what's
00:52:39.700 true
00:52:40.040 and
00:52:40.820 then
00:52:41.140 the
00:52:41.660 additional
00:52:42.280 steps
00:52:42.780 that
00:52:42.980 social
00:52:43.740 media
00:52:44.060 took
00:52:44.460 like
00:52:44.840 Twitter
00:52:45.320 actually
00:52:46.200 blocking
00:52:46.820 the
00:52:47.120 New York
00:52:47.460 Post's
00:52:48.220 account
00:52:48.700 once
00:52:49.080 they
00:52:49.300 released
00:52:49.700 an article
00:52:50.120 on the
00:52:50.680 topic
00:52:51.000 that
00:52:51.700 seemed
00:52:52.180 much
00:52:52.840 more
00:52:53.060 heavy
00:52:53.320 handed
00:52:53.680 and
00:52:54.180 harder
00:52:54.500 to
00:52:54.700 defend
00:52:55.120 and
00:52:55.480 I
00:52:55.620 think
00:52:55.800 it
00:52:56.580 did
00:52:56.920 actually
00:52:57.240 have
00:52:57.400 the
00:52:57.520 Streisand
00:52:58.860 effect
00:52:59.080 that
00:52:59.440 you
00:52:59.760 just
00:53:00.000 referenced
00:53:00.380 a moment
00:53:00.720 ago
00:53:00.980 that
00:53:01.160 it
00:53:01.260 really
00:53:01.440 brought
00:53:01.680 more
00:53:01.880 attention
00:53:02.160 to it
00:53:02.560 but it
00:53:03.140 was also
00:53:03.440 just less
00:53:03.960 defensible
00:53:05.000 in my
00:53:05.760 view
00:53:06.020 and now
00:53:07.020 you know
00:53:07.840 fast forward
00:53:08.220 to the
00:53:08.440 present
00:53:08.680 moment
00:53:09.100 I still
00:53:10.220 you know
00:53:10.620 all this
00:53:11.000 time
00:53:11.320 given that
00:53:11.900 Trump
00:53:12.440 has
00:53:12.820 my
00:53:13.340 feeling
00:53:13.880 was
00:53:14.380 at the
00:53:15.280 time
00:53:15.640 and it
00:53:15.960 is now
00:53:16.500 I don't
00:53:17.380 care what's
00:53:17.860 in that
00:53:18.100 laptop
00:53:18.460 because
00:53:19.020 I know
00:53:20.300 in advance
00:53:21.120 that even
00:53:22.020 if it
00:53:22.280 reveals
00:53:22.660 some degree
00:53:23.300 of corruption
00:53:23.900 on the
00:53:24.360 part of
00:53:24.840 President
00:53:25.340 Biden
00:53:25.800 it's
00:53:26.700 going to
00:53:27.020 pale in
00:53:27.420 comparison
00:53:27.800 to the
00:53:28.160 corruption
00:53:28.460 I know
00:53:29.040 is true
00:53:29.860 of Trump
00:53:31.220 and his
00:53:31.560 family
00:53:31.980 and the
00:53:33.160 truth is
00:53:33.920 that corruption
00:53:34.840 isn't even
00:53:35.620 as troublesome
00:53:36.380 as many
00:53:37.360 of the other
00:53:37.760 things that
00:53:38.340 I despise
00:53:39.760 in Trump
00:53:40.540 and the
00:53:41.080 prospect of
00:53:41.640 him getting
00:53:42.420 a second
00:53:42.800 term
00:53:43.120 so I
00:53:44.160 can just
00:53:44.520 say that
00:53:45.040 I actually
00:53:45.520 as long
00:53:46.020 as Trump
00:53:46.380 is a
00:53:46.660 candidate
00:53:47.020 I don't
00:53:48.180 really care
00:53:48.780 what's
00:53:49.240 on that
00:53:49.940 laptop
00:53:50.440 as odious
00:53:51.480 as it
00:53:51.740 might be
00:53:52.200 and I
00:53:52.760 do worry
00:53:53.420 that there's
00:53:54.080 a lot
00:53:54.340 there that
00:53:54.720 could
00:53:55.440 in a
00:53:56.000 perfect
00:53:56.240 world
00:53:56.600 discredit
00:53:57.320 Biden's
00:53:58.000 candidacy
00:53:58.500 but
00:53:59.300 it's
00:53:59.980 I just
00:54:01.160 don't
00:54:01.360 care
00:54:01.640 as
00:54:01.820 long
00:54:02.120 as
00:54:02.480 Trump
00:54:03.140 is
00:54:03.340 running
00:54:03.740 and
00:54:04.400 so
00:54:04.560 I'm
00:54:04.660 just
00:54:04.800 wondering
00:54:05.180 how
00:54:05.800 you
00:54:05.980 view
00:54:06.220 that
00:54:06.560 response
00:54:07.020 I guess
00:54:07.540 I disagree
00:54:08.240 the standard
00:54:09.940 I would
00:54:10.600 apply
00:54:10.920 first of all
00:54:12.100 I don't
00:54:12.440 think it's
00:54:12.980 the business
00:54:14.120 of those
00:54:15.100 of us
00:54:15.460 in the
00:54:15.740 journalistic
00:54:16.300 profession
00:54:16.860 certainly
00:54:17.300 on the
00:54:17.880 news side
00:54:18.480 not the
00:54:18.820 opinion
00:54:19.100 side
00:54:19.540 to
00:54:20.460 try to
00:54:21.340 tip
00:54:21.920 the scales
00:54:22.480 by
00:54:23.440 withholding
00:54:24.120 stories
00:54:24.640 that
00:54:24.960 we would
00:54:25.540 otherwise
00:54:25.880 consider
00:54:26.440 legitimate
00:54:26.920 and
00:54:27.400 by
00:54:28.420 legitimate
00:54:28.980 what I
00:54:29.440 mean
00:54:29.640 is
00:54:29.800 let's
00:54:30.040 imagine
00:54:30.500 that
00:54:31.140 it
00:54:31.840 wasn't
00:54:32.180 the
00:54:32.320 Hunter
00:54:32.600 Biden
00:54:32.980 laptop
00:54:33.440 it
00:54:33.940 was
00:54:34.180 the
00:54:34.400 Donald
00:54:34.700 Trump
00:54:35.060 jr.
00:54:35.520 laptop
00:54:35.980 there's
00:54:36.520 no
00:54:36.700 question
00:54:37.300 it would
00:54:38.520 have gotten
00:54:38.820 a very
00:54:39.160 different
00:54:39.440 response
00:54:39.960 and say
00:54:40.260 the
00:54:40.400 Donald
00:54:40.640 Trump
00:54:40.920 jr.
00:54:41.320 laptop
00:54:41.860 contained
00:54:42.800 all
00:54:43.140 kinds
00:54:43.720 of
00:54:44.280 alarming
00:54:45.340 information
00:54:45.980 about
00:54:46.420 his
00:54:46.700 business
00:54:47.120 deals
00:54:47.680 with
00:54:48.360 foreign
00:54:49.120 actors
00:54:49.820 hints
00:54:50.720 of
00:54:50.960 corruption
00:54:51.540 all
00:54:52.660 all
00:54:52.680 the
00:54:52.820 stuff
00:54:53.040 that
00:54:53.220 turned
00:54:53.600 out
00:54:53.760 to
00:54:53.860 be
00:54:53.960 on
00:54:54.100 the
00:54:54.220 Hunter
00:54:54.440 Biden
00:54:54.720 laptop
00:54:55.200 the
00:54:55.780 treatment
00:54:56.100 should
00:54:56.400 be
00:54:56.720 the
00:54:57.060 same
00:54:57.360 once
00:54:57.880 once
00:54:59.040 editors
00:54:59.600 came to
00:55:00.520 a
00:55:00.680 determination
00:55:01.060 that
00:55:01.600 this
00:55:01.800 was
00:55:02.120 they
00:55:02.820 had
00:55:03.020 a
00:55:03.160 good
00:55:03.320 reason
00:55:03.700 good
00:55:04.040 reason
00:55:04.400 to
00:55:04.600 believe
00:55:05.020 that
00:55:05.320 what
00:55:05.860 was
00:55:06.040 on
00:55:06.220 this
00:55:06.380 laptop
00:55:06.840 was
00:55:07.200 true
00:55:08.260 or
00:55:08.520 at
00:55:08.680 least
00:55:08.820 reportable
00:55:09.640 even
00:55:09.900 if
00:55:10.080 there
00:55:10.200 were
00:55:10.340 some
00:55:10.700 lingering
00:55:11.620 doubts
00:55:12.080 they
00:55:12.280 should
00:55:12.520 have
00:55:12.720 reported
00:55:13.400 it
00:55:13.720 you
00:55:14.160 think
00:55:14.400 they
00:55:14.560 should
00:55:14.740 have
00:55:14.860 just
00:55:15.040 followed
00:55:15.580 the
00:55:15.940 timing
00:55:16.380 of
00:55:17.340 Giuliani
00:55:17.960 knowing
00:55:18.520 that
00:55:18.920 that
00:55:19.220 he
00:55:19.540 had
00:55:19.700 held
00:55:20.020 this
00:55:20.300 thing
00:55:20.640 until
00:55:21.620 it
00:55:22.380 was
00:55:22.520 too
00:55:22.720 close
00:55:22.980 to
00:55:23.100 the
00:55:23.180 I
00:55:23.320 mean
00:55:23.460 again
00:55:23.820 I
00:55:24.380 just
00:55:24.720 don't
00:55:24.940 think
00:55:25.160 that
00:55:25.440 it
00:55:25.820 serves
00:55:26.260 the
00:55:26.480 media
00:55:26.740 well
00:55:27.240 when
00:55:28.020 we
00:55:28.240 are
00:55:28.580 self
00:55:29.080 consciously
00:55:29.560 trying
00:55:29.980 to tip
00:55:30.360 the
00:55:30.560 scales
00:55:30.900 of
00:55:31.200 an
00:55:31.440 election
00:55:31.820 we
00:55:32.080 are
00:55:32.200 trying
00:55:32.640 our
00:55:33.320 that
00:55:34.060 look
00:55:34.500 your
00:55:35.220 determination
00:55:36.580 as a
00:55:37.240 voter
00:55:37.540 right
00:55:37.980 like
00:55:38.640 let's
00:55:39.160 say
00:55:39.320 it
00:55:39.460 had
00:55:39.580 come
00:55:39.820 out
00:55:40.200 before
00:55:41.020 the
00:55:41.220 election
00:55:41.580 and
00:55:41.900 there
00:55:42.020 was
00:55:42.140 some
00:55:42.340 evidence
00:55:42.700 that
00:55:42.920 Hunter
00:55:43.180 was
00:55:43.380 corrupt
00:55:43.760 and
00:55:43.960 maybe
00:55:44.220 even
00:55:44.760 that
00:55:45.360 his
00:55:45.940 father
00:55:46.440 knew
00:55:46.860 more
00:55:47.360 than
00:55:47.780 you
00:55:48.340 know
00:55:48.460 he's
00:55:48.920 claimed
00:55:49.740 right
00:55:50.100 you
00:55:50.560 would
00:55:50.760 still
00:55:51.040 vote
00:55:51.300 for
00:55:51.520 Biden
00:55:51.880 because
00:55:52.180 you
00:55:52.360 would
00:55:52.520 say
00:55:52.900 they
00:55:53.540 might
00:55:53.760 both
00:55:54.060 be
00:55:54.260 crooks
00:55:54.720 or
00:55:54.920 have
00:55:55.320 you
00:55:55.620 know
00:55:55.840 bad
00:55:56.480 things
00:55:56.780 against
00:55:57.100 them
00:55:57.360 but
00:55:57.620 Biden
00:55:58.160 is
00:55:58.440 you
00:55:59.320 know
00:55:59.420 what
00:55:59.560 the
00:55:59.680 British
00:55:59.940 call
00:56:00.440 by
00:56:01.040 the
00:56:01.100 way
00:56:01.240 you
00:56:01.460 know
00:56:01.580 this
00:56:02.260 is
00:56:02.380 not
00:56:02.520 what
00:56:02.720 I'm
00:56:02.900 saying
00:56:03.180 he
00:56:03.320 is
00:56:03.420 but
00:56:03.540 you
00:56:03.660 might
00:56:03.920 say
00:56:11.220 sooner
00:56:12.580 take
00:56:13.040 the
00:56:13.340 Hunter
00:56:13.660 Biden
00:56:14.100 run
00:56:14.460 of
00:56:14.580 the
00:56:14.720 mill
00:56:15.000 nepotism
00:56:17.220 slash
00:56:18.060 favoritism
00:56:19.080 slash
00:56:19.540 whatever
00:56:19.940 it is
00:56:20.520 to
00:56:21.300 the
00:56:21.920 screaming
00:56:22.660 risk
00:56:23.080 that
00:56:23.300 Trump
00:56:23.560 represents
00:56:24.040 for
00:56:24.200 democracy
00:56:24.540 that
00:56:24.780 that's
00:56:25.100 a
00:56:25.200 decision
00:56:25.500 that
00:56:25.720 Sam
00:56:26.000 Harris
00:56:26.420 makes
00:56:27.340 as a
00:56:27.700 voter
00:56:28.000 right
00:56:28.540 but
00:56:29.420 from
00:56:30.200 the
00:56:30.340 point
00:56:30.540 of
00:56:30.680 view
00:56:30.900 of
00:56:31.180 editors
00:56:31.980 I
00:56:32.420 think
00:56:32.840 many
00:56:33.440 editors
00:56:33.860 were
00:56:34.460 were
00:56:35.300 derelict
00:56:35.860 in
00:56:36.180 their
00:56:36.360 duty
00:56:36.780 and
00:56:37.440 the
00:56:37.820 test
00:56:38.120 I've
00:56:38.320 always
00:56:38.540 applied
00:56:38.860 and
00:56:39.000 I've
00:56:39.160 said
00:56:39.320 this
00:56:39.460 to
00:56:39.600 Republicans
00:56:40.120 a
00:56:40.400 million
00:56:40.620 times
00:56:41.080 have
00:56:41.840 said
00:56:42.160 if
00:56:42.780 it
00:56:43.560 had
00:56:43.780 been
00:56:44.080 a
00:56:44.820 Republican
00:56:45.340 let's
00:56:45.680 say
00:56:45.940 it
00:56:46.180 had
00:56:46.340 been
00:56:46.540 Barack
00:56:47.040 Obama
00:56:47.440 or
00:56:47.720 Joe
00:56:48.100 Biden
00:56:48.520 who
00:56:49.460 had
00:56:49.660 been
00:56:49.860 accused
00:56:50.500 of
00:56:51.140 sexual
00:56:52.160 assault
00:56:52.840 the
00:56:53.380 way
00:56:53.900 credibly
00:56:54.940 accused
00:56:55.400 the
00:56:55.560 way
00:56:55.720 he
00:56:55.840 told
00:56:55.940 he
00:56:56.200 told
00:56:56.580 he
00:56:56.940 accused
00:56:57.520 Donald
00:56:58.400 Trump
00:56:58.840 right
00:56:59.300 how
00:57:00.280 would
00:57:00.480 you
00:57:00.600 take
00:57:00.860 it
00:57:01.100 right
00:57:01.440 would
00:57:02.220 you
00:57:02.340 dismiss
00:57:02.680 it
00:57:02.960 no
00:57:03.640 you
00:57:03.840 wouldn't
00:57:04.080 you
00:57:04.220 would
00:57:04.360 take
00:57:04.540 it
00:57:04.680 seriously
00:57:05.040 so
00:57:05.340 I
00:57:05.840 just
00:57:06.020 think
00:57:06.220 that
00:57:06.420 it's
00:57:06.780 important
00:57:07.160 for
00:57:07.340 the
00:57:07.480 media's
00:57:07.840 credibility
00:57:08.240 this
00:57:08.480 goes
00:57:08.660 back
00:57:08.900 to
00:57:09.160 the
00:57:09.620 early
00:57:09.920 part
00:57:10.260 of
00:57:10.400 our
00:57:10.580 conversation
00:57:11.300 to
00:57:12.020 stick
00:57:12.300 to
00:57:12.540 its
00:57:12.740 lane
00:57:13.020 we
00:57:13.260 are
00:57:13.380 not
00:57:13.600 trying
00:57:13.960 to
00:57:14.260 tip
00:57:14.580 the
00:57:14.800 scales
00:57:15.260 in
00:57:15.520 an
00:57:15.680 election
00:57:16.040 we
00:57:16.880 are
00:57:17.040 trying
00:57:17.480 to
00:57:17.760 be
00:57:18.240 fair
00:57:24.940 tellers
00:57:25.420 of
00:57:25.560 the
00:57:25.720 news
00:57:26.100 right
00:57:26.520 that's
00:57:26.900 that's
00:57:27.340 that's
00:57:27.800 our
00:57:27.980 role
00:57:28.240 our
00:57:29.140 role
00:57:29.380 is
00:57:29.540 not
00:57:29.720 to
00:57:29.900 say
00:57:30.060 you
00:57:30.220 know
00:57:30.400 yes
00:57:30.900 yes
00:57:31.120 yes
00:57:31.140 yes
00:57:31.360 but
00:57:31.540 Trump
00:57:31.760 is
00:57:31.920 such
00:57:32.100 a
00:57:32.260 unique
00:57:32.560 threat
00:57:32.860 to
00:57:33.040 democracy
00:57:33.620 that
00:57:34.640 this
00:57:35.160 is
00:57:35.280 one
00:57:35.500 story
00:57:35.880 we're
00:57:36.120 just
00:57:36.280 not
00:57:36.540 going
00:57:36.680 to
00:57:36.780 air
00:57:37.000 because
00:57:37.280 we
00:57:37.440 don't
00:57:37.620 like
00:57:37.820 the
00:57:37.980 timing
00:57:38.320 if
00:57:39.140 we
00:57:39.500 would
00:57:39.780 have
00:57:39.900 done
00:57:40.180 it
00:57:40.380 if
00:57:40.920 the
00:57:41.080 shoe
00:57:41.240 had
00:57:41.380 been
00:57:41.480 on
00:57:41.620 the
00:57:41.720 other
00:57:41.880 foot
00:57:42.200 then
00:57:42.940 we
00:57:43.100 have
00:57:43.320 to
00:57:43.460 apply
00:57:43.860 an
00:57:44.140 equivalent
00:57:44.480 standard
00:57:44.920 if
00:57:54.940 people
00:57:55.520 having
00:57:56.600 more
00:57:56.920 confidence
00:57:57.460 in
00:57:58.080 what
00:57:58.400 the
00:57:59.160 Alex
00:57:59.500 Joneses
00:58:00.040 of
00:58:00.160 the
00:58:00.260 world
00:58:00.480 have
00:58:00.760 to
00:58:00.920 say
00:58:01.220 than
00:58:01.960 what
00:58:02.260 the
00:58:02.780 New York
00:58:03.200 Times
00:58:03.560 or
00:58:03.700 the
00:58:03.800 Washington
00:58:04.160 Post
00:58:04.520 or
00:58:04.680 the
00:58:04.760 Wall
00:58:04.920 Street
00:58:05.080 Journal
00:58:05.360 have
00:58:05.660 to
00:58:05.820 say
00:58:06.060 so
00:58:06.520 it's
00:58:06.860 the
00:58:07.020 same
00:58:07.220 in a
00:58:07.500 sense
00:58:07.700 we're
00:58:07.860 talking
00:58:08.140 about
00:58:08.420 the
00:58:08.600 same
00:58:08.800 thing
00:58:09.180 by
00:58:09.900 trying
00:58:10.500 to
00:58:10.940 have
00:58:11.400 a
00:58:11.560 larger
00:58:11.900 role
00:58:12.260 than
00:58:12.440 simply
00:58:12.920 the
00:58:13.280 role
00:58:13.540 of
00:58:13.720 being
00:58:14.140 disseminators
00:58:15.600 of
00:58:15.840 solid
00:58:16.380 and
00:58:16.680 credible
00:58:17.020 information
00:58:17.640 we
00:58:18.640 harm
00:58:19.080 trust
00:58:19.680 in
00:58:20.040 what
00:58:20.760 we
00:58:20.940 do
00:58:21.300 we
00:58:21.820 harm
00:58:24.940 drive
00:58:25.520 people
00:58:25.980 to
00:58:26.580 the
00:58:26.980 margins
00:58:27.320 of
00:58:27.580 the
00:58:27.700 information
00:58:28.160 economy
00:58:28.700 yeah
00:58:30.520 I mean
00:58:30.820 I get
00:58:31.160 that that
00:58:31.620 risk
00:58:32.000 is
00:58:32.280 it
00:58:33.440 seems
00:58:33.800 to be
00:58:34.120 borne
00:58:34.380 out
00:58:34.660 certainly
00:58:35.040 in
00:58:35.320 certain
00:58:35.700 cases
00:58:36.060 I
00:58:36.320 just
00:58:36.660 I
00:58:36.880 worry
00:58:37.180 that
00:58:37.620 for
00:58:38.060 me
00:58:38.280 the
00:58:38.520 timing
00:58:39.080 was
00:58:39.720 all
00:58:40.080 there
00:58:40.560 or
00:58:41.360 certainly
00:58:41.580 most
00:58:41.980 of
00:58:42.140 the
00:58:42.260 consideration
00:58:42.800 and
00:58:43.620 given
00:58:44.620 the
00:58:45.280 example
00:58:45.680 of
00:58:46.040 Anthony
00:58:46.440 Wiener's
00:58:46.820 laptop
00:58:47.140 and how
00:58:47.660 that
00:58:47.900 was
00:58:48.240 it
00:58:49.000 evaporated
00:58:49.700 as a
00:58:50.040 story
00:58:50.360 right
00:58:50.740 after
00:58:51.140 it
00:58:51.320 had
00:58:51.560 this
00:58:51.780 decisive
00:58:52.220 effect
00:58:52.680 on
00:58:52.840 the
00:58:52.940 election
00:58:53.300 it
00:58:53.920 just
00:58:54.100 seemed
00:58:54.440 ridiculous
00:58:55.320 to play
00:58:55.920 into
00:58:56.220 Giuliani's
00:58:57.340 gamesmanship
00:58:58.140 at that
00:58:58.880 point
00:58:59.280 but
00:58:59.580 by the
00:59:00.280 way
00:59:00.340 I
00:59:00.460 think
00:59:00.620 Trump
00:59:00.880 would
00:59:01.040 still
00:59:01.260 have
00:59:01.440 lost
00:59:01.700 the
00:59:01.860 election
00:59:02.280 we'll
00:59:03.260 never
00:59:03.480 know
00:59:03.780 but
00:59:04.000 I
00:59:04.140 think
00:59:04.340 Trump
00:59:04.620 would
00:59:04.780 have
00:59:04.960 Trump
00:59:05.500 was
00:59:05.680 on
00:59:05.820 his
00:59:05.940 way
00:59:06.140 to
00:59:06.360 a
00:59:06.580 massive
00:59:07.200 loss
00:59:07.660 and
00:59:07.840 you
00:59:07.940 might
00:59:08.120 say
00:59:08.440 could
00:59:09.120 it
00:59:09.240 have
00:59:09.380 tipped
00:59:09.640 a few
00:59:09.940 thousand
00:59:10.280 votes
00:59:10.700 in
00:59:11.020 Wisconsin
00:59:11.800 or
00:59:12.100 Pennsylvania
00:59:12.500 I
00:59:13.840 tend
00:59:14.320 to
00:59:14.460 doubt
00:59:14.680 it
00:59:14.800 people
00:59:15.140 had
00:59:16.220 made
00:59:16.420 their
00:59:16.580 determination
00:59:17.000 about
00:59:17.400 his
00:59:17.540 presidency
00:59:17.980 irrespective
00:59:18.700 of
00:59:18.940 allegations
00:59:19.920 of
00:59:20.320 Hunter
00:59:20.780 shenanigans
00:59:21.440 although
00:59:21.740 you
00:59:22.040 have
00:59:22.400 some
00:59:22.760 prominent
00:59:23.700 Republicans
00:59:24.220 walking
00:59:24.600 around
00:59:24.900 saying
00:59:25.180 this
00:59:25.500 was
00:59:26.120 how
00:59:26.560 the
00:59:27.860 election
00:59:28.440 was
00:59:29.080 stolen
00:59:29.500 from
00:59:30.120 Trump
00:59:30.480 it
00:59:30.660 wasn't
00:59:31.080 stolen
00:59:31.440 in all
00:59:31.740 the
00:59:31.840 ways
00:59:32.020 Trump
00:59:32.380 claimed
00:59:32.680 it
00:59:32.800 was
00:59:32.920 stolen
00:59:33.180 because
00:59:34.160 we
00:59:34.560 did
00:59:34.760 not
00:59:35.120 give
00:59:35.620 the
00:59:36.020 Hunter
00:59:36.240 Biden
00:59:36.520 laptop
00:59:36.880 story
00:59:37.420 the
00:59:37.680 appropriate
00:59:38.160 hearing
00:59:39.320 in a
00:59:40.160 timely
00:59:40.420 way
00:59:40.780 this
00:59:41.100 is
00:59:41.200 what
00:59:41.860 Vivek
00:59:42.360 Ramaswamy
00:59:43.140 is
00:59:43.300 saying
00:59:43.580 and
00:59:43.860 perhaps
00:59:44.340 others
00:59:44.660 are
00:59:44.800 saying
00:59:45.000 it
00:59:45.200 but
00:59:45.420 yeah
00:59:46.100 pure
00:59:46.640 bullshit
00:59:47.080 perhaps
00:59:47.840 we can
00:59:48.040 linger
00:59:48.240 on this
00:59:48.480 point
00:59:48.680 for a
00:59:49.280 moment
00:59:50.780 I claim
00:59:51.600 that I
00:59:52.100 wouldn't
00:59:52.980 want to
00:59:53.220 do
00:59:53.320 anything
00:59:53.600 to
00:59:53.900 increase
00:59:54.260 Trump's
00:59:55.060 chances
00:59:55.380 to get
00:59:55.900 re-elected
00:59:56.460 what
00:59:56.980 lessons
00:59:57.320 should
00:59:57.560 we
00:59:57.820 draw
00:59:58.200 from
00:59:58.560 the
00:59:59.300 Hunter
00:59:59.600 Biden
00:59:59.860 laptop
01:00:00.240 at this
01:00:00.780 point
01:00:00.980 have you
01:00:01.300 looked at
01:00:02.140 it
01:00:02.280 long
01:00:02.660 enough
01:00:02.880 to know
01:00:03.220 what
01:00:03.400 you
01:00:03.540 think
01:00:03.920 about
01:00:04.260 the
01:00:04.880 possible
01:00:05.260 implications
01:00:05.860 for
01:00:06.380 Biden
01:00:06.920 so
01:00:07.420 if you'd
01:00:10.240 like to
01:00:10.480 continue
01:00:10.780 listening
01:00:11.080 to this
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