Making Sense - Sam Harris - November 16, 2023


#341 — Gaza & Global Order


Episode Stats

Length

54 minutes

Words per Minute

146.46828

Word Count

8,000

Sentence Count

358

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

39


Summary

Yuval Noah Harari is a world-famous public intellectual and historian. He is the author of Sapiens and Homo Deus, as well as other books such as Homo Deus and Sapiens: A User's Guide to the World, Homo Deus. In this episode, Yuval talks about the current crisis in the Middle East, and his perspective on recent events, including the Israeli disengagement from the West Bank, the ground war in Gaza, the rise of global anti-Semitism, and the glimmers of hope to be seen there. He also talks about how to deal with a world in which we live in constant fear of the unknown, and what it means to be a human being in a world that is constantly on the edge of collapse. He talks about what it's like in Israel now, how people are making sense of the failure of the IDF on October 7th, and how we might avoid World War III while shoring up the failing global order. As always, the way to support the podcast is to subscribe at Samharris.org/making-sense and become a supporter of the podcast by becoming a supporter. You'll get access to the podcast's newest episode, "The Bright Line Between Good and Evil," wherever you get your podcasts, plus access to more episodes of The Making Sense Podcast, and access to all the latest news and updates on the podcast. The podcast is made possible because of the support of our listeners. We don't run ads, and therefore, we're made possible entirely through the support we're doing this podcast by you, the listeners. Please consider becoming one of our supporters! . Thank you, Sam Harris and I hope that you enjoy what we're listening to this podcast, and that you'll find the podcast helpful, because it's made possible by your support is making me a better person, not less important than you'll be able to understand the world, and help us all be better at making sense, better at listening to the things we care about the world. . . . and I'm grateful that you're listening, and I really appreciate what we can do, not only of the things I care about, not just listening, more of that, and learning, and more of what we know, and better listening, so we can make sense, and we can help you better understand, and learn more of the world more of it, and so much more of our world, better of it.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.
00:00:08.820 This is Sam Harris.
00:00:10.880 Just a note to say that if you're hearing this, you are not currently on our subscriber
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00:00:46.860 Okay, well my last podcast seems to have made the rounds.
00:00:52.440 This was one of those audio essays, essentially, where I took the time to figure out a
00:00:58.340 exactly what I wanted to say.
00:01:00.780 I tend to do a few of those a year, I think.
00:01:05.040 Most of them tend to be PSAs, as that one was.
00:01:08.840 Invariably, my wife, Annika, comes off the bench for these, because she is the best editor
00:01:14.500 I know.
00:01:16.160 And this time was no exception.
00:01:18.500 The episode, titled The Bright Line Between Good and Evil, was considerably improved for
00:01:23.920 her input.
00:01:25.680 And I'm glad so many of you found it useful.
00:01:29.160 I got an overwhelmingly positive response, I must say.
00:01:32.500 I heard from lots of interesting people.
00:01:35.920 CEOs and writers and scientists, and just a great response.
00:01:41.860 And today's conversation is on the same topic.
00:01:45.940 But here I'm bringing in Yuval Noah Harari, who I'm sure all of you know.
00:01:50.360 Well, he's been on the podcast, I think, four times before.
00:01:55.260 And as I joke at the end, we can never get to our topic of common interest, meditation
00:02:00.840 and the nature of mind, because there are always so many pressing things in the world to talk
00:02:05.340 about.
00:02:06.560 Yuval's a historian and a world-famous public intellectual.
00:02:10.980 He wrote Sapiens and Homo Deus, as well as other books.
00:02:15.660 His books are in print in, I think, 65 languages, which is astounding.
00:02:22.560 And he also happens to be an Israeli citizen.
00:02:25.260 So I wanted to get his perspective on recent events.
00:02:28.660 We talk about what it's like in Israel now, how people are making sense of the failure of
00:02:33.540 the IDF on October 7th, Netanyahu's contributions to the current crisis, along with those of the
00:02:41.320 settlers in the West Bank.
00:02:42.540 We talk about the ethics and geopolitical implications of the ground war in Gaza, how vulnerable Israel
00:02:50.240 may or may not be to world opinion, the rise of global anti-Semitism, the state of Palestinian
00:02:56.540 citizens in Israel, and the glimmers of hope to be seen there.
00:03:01.240 We talk about the prospects of a two-state solution, how Israeli and American weakness remains
00:03:07.580 provocative, the lessons learned from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
00:03:12.540 How we might avoid World War III while shoring up the failing global order, and other topics.
00:03:19.500 As always, the way to support the podcast is to subscribe at samharris.org.
00:03:25.120 And now I bring you Yuval Noah Harari.
00:03:35.020 I am here with Yuval Noah Harari.
00:03:37.440 Yuval, thanks for joining me.
00:03:39.140 Thank you for inviting me.
00:03:40.580 So, obviously, you are a person who has a relevant point of view on the current crisis in the Middle East.
00:03:51.580 Before we jump in, remind people what you've been focused on these many years as a historian
00:03:57.760 and a public intellectual.
00:03:59.200 I try to focus on the big picture of history, you know, trying to understand how an ape from
00:04:06.800 Africa took over the world and how now the future, the fate of perhaps all life depends
00:04:16.840 on our species, and I try to understand the long-term historical processes.
00:04:22.880 At the present moment, however, I'm focused on the immediate historical disaster unfolding
00:04:30.280 all around me.
00:04:31.500 I know from my line of work that it's usually not a good thing to be in the middle of a big
00:04:39.320 historical event, that when history comes knocking at your door, it's usually bad news,
00:04:46.240 and history didn't just come knocking at the door, it just broke the door.
00:04:50.800 Yeah.
00:04:51.560 Yeah, this is really the first moment since 9-11 where the intrusion of history has been
00:04:59.360 so stark.
00:05:00.720 I mean, this is, by definition, a very provincial view of things because obviously history has
00:05:05.940 been hammering people all the while in other countries, but do you share that?
00:05:10.460 Is that, in terms of how it's punctuated your life, how many moments like this have there
00:05:15.720 been?
00:05:16.320 Actually, too many moments in recent years.
00:05:19.620 It happened with the pandemic, it happened with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
00:05:23.640 Ukraine.
00:05:24.640 The Russian invasion started on my birthday, the 24th of February, and it was like one of
00:05:31.060 the worst days of my life.
00:05:33.160 I don't live in Ukraine.
00:05:34.780 I don't have relatives there, but I heard the news.
00:05:40.120 Of course, I was following very closely what was happening there.
00:05:43.940 And it really felt that history is taking a turn in the worst possible direction, and that
00:05:51.880 we will feel the repercussions all over the world.
00:05:54.720 And I think to a large extent, the war that started there is now reaching my house.
00:06:03.280 And if we don't change the direction that the world is going, then these kinds of events,
00:06:10.180 they'll come knocking at the door of more and more people all over the world.
00:06:14.720 Put it very, very simply, we had a far from imperfect, but nevertheless functioning, global
00:06:23.280 order.
00:06:24.120 And over the last few years, this order has been undermined and destroyed.
00:06:30.160 And when order is destroyed, what you get is disorder.
00:06:34.380 Yeah.
00:06:35.020 And this type of disorder and violence that we now experience here in Israel and in Palestine,
00:06:41.520 I'm afraid that we will see it in more and more places all over the world.
00:06:46.720 Well, I want to talk about that.
00:06:47.680 I want to discuss just how fully the global liberal order has unraveled in recent years
00:06:55.520 and where all this might be headed.
00:06:58.280 But let's start with the more proximate problem of the recent October 7th attacks in Israel and
00:07:06.160 the resulting ground war in Gaza.
00:07:09.340 Yeah.
00:07:09.520 Where were you on October 7th?
00:07:11.520 Actually, I was in Turkey on vacation, and it was really almost surreal to hear the news
00:07:19.380 and see the images that began streaming from Israel when I'm on this kind of idyllic beach
00:07:26.160 in Turkey.
00:07:27.620 Yeah.
00:07:27.940 And yeah, it hit very close to home.
00:07:30.900 My uncle and aunt live in Kibbutz Beri, which is one of the communities that has been really
00:07:36.980 obliterated by the Hamas terrorists.
00:07:40.220 I have very good friends in another kibbutz in Kfar Aza, which was also obliterated by the
00:07:46.280 Hamas.
00:07:47.240 So it really felt extremely personal, everything that has been happening over the last few weeks.
00:07:53.020 Were any of your friends or family killed or taken hostage?
00:07:56.660 Not in the immediate circle, but the moment you step, you take one step outside the kind of immediate
00:08:03.180 circle of friends and family, you have so many horrible stories about killing and kidnapping.
00:08:10.800 My aunt and uncle, they were locked in their house.
00:08:15.120 They hid in their house for hours as the terrorists were rampaging around and torturing and massacring
00:08:22.000 their neighbors.
00:08:22.660 I just met two friends who were hiding in the safe room inside their house in Kfar Aza for 30
00:08:33.360 hours, again, in the most horrible conditions.
00:08:36.860 And every day you keep hearing more and more stories about that.
00:08:40.940 I mean, it's already clear that this day, which is the worst day in the history of Israel
00:08:46.980 since its foundation, it's already beyond just history.
00:08:51.700 It's already becoming a mythic moment that the people know that they lived, they have been
00:08:57.900 living inside a mythological moment.
00:09:01.620 We don't know how people in the future will look back on it, but it is clear that it's going
00:09:07.940 to be one of these moments that people keep going back to and retelling again and again for
00:09:13.720 generations.
00:09:14.260 Yeah, yeah, there's really no doubt of that.
00:09:17.900 What is it like in Israel now?
00:09:20.340 I'd love to get your sense of the national mood and where people are in their grappling
00:09:28.160 toward an understanding of how this happened.
00:09:31.480 Well, you know, I guess you can take any side of this you want, but I'm interested in what
00:09:36.540 people make of the failure of the IDF, what people make of how the chaos of Netanyahu's
00:09:44.260 government might have contributed to this problem.
00:09:47.900 What is the feeling in Israel?
00:09:49.900 And can you give me a sense of just kind of the political situation?
00:09:54.180 Yeah, it's very difficult to say.
00:09:55.580 There is a mixture of so many different feelings and it depends on who you talk to.
00:10:00.400 But it's obvious that there is immense grief and pain.
00:10:04.100 There is also immense rage at Netanyahu and at his coalition.
00:10:09.340 It's clear to a lot of people that, yes, there were immediate failures of the military, but this
00:10:17.460 was the result really of 14 years of being ruled by a populist strongman who divided the
00:10:26.180 nation against itself and put his personal interests before the national interest, you know, appointing people to
00:10:34.880 key positions on the basis of personal and political loyalties and not on the basis of
00:10:41.900 competence, accusing the serving elites of the country of being these deep state
00:10:48.440 traitors, you know, to the degree that the very word elite, which is supposed to be positive, you know, people who are
00:10:54.400 foremost in giving service to their country, in the military, in the universities, in judicial system or wherever, it became a
00:11:02.440 pejorative term as if there is something wrong with it.
00:11:05.480 And especially over the last year, you know, trying to undermine Israeli democracy, and it was warned again and again and again by people in the army, in the
00:11:19.480 intelligence, that this is weakening Israel at a very, very dangerous moment and distracting all the country and the security forces from the main threats.
00:11:29.820 And it simply ignored all these warnings. And now we are paying the price for it. And I think this is a lesson that people all over the world should take to heart, that if you vote for a populist strongman like that, then eventually there comes a day when the entire nations pay a very, very high price for it.
00:11:55.700 Yeah, I think I could be forgiven for hearing a pretty spot on description of Trump in your description of Netanyahu. I wasn't aware of how, what a Trumpian figure Netanyahu was not having followed Israeli politics as closely as I might have.
00:12:13.100 I mean, there is one big difference, that Israel is, you know, much weaker and more exposed than the United States. There are the kinds of, I don't know, political experiments that people in other countries may have the luxury to try, that Israel just doesn't have this kind of buffer. And it was extremely reckless. And as I said, we are now paying the price for it.
00:12:41.540 Just so that I'm clear about the causality here, is it that Netanyahu drew so much attention to his own political needs and the divisiveness of that whole project, just shoring up his government, that it was such a distraction from the very real concerns of security?
00:13:00.840 Or was it, it sounds like you're saying it was that, but in addition, it was also putting people in power who are actually not competent because they were just loyalists to his regime, essentially.
00:13:14.040 It's much broader than just the destruction. I mean, what we've seen since October 7th is that even more than a month after the horrible attack, still many government departments are not functioning well.
00:13:27.040 Civil society had to fill in for a lot of dysfunctioning state agencies and government departments because of the policies that undermined these state institutions for years.
00:13:42.780 Another thing that we see is that Netanyahu based his career for years on the idea that you cannot have any kind of peace process with the Palestinians.
00:13:54.440 And he actually, and he said it openly that he saw Hamas as a better partner of sorts than the Palestinian authority because with Hamas, there was no danger that there is going to be any kind of peace process.
00:14:10.520 So he openly talked about it for years that his policy is to weaken the moderate forces among the Palestinians and strengthen Hamas.
00:14:23.080 And this all blew up in our face on the 7th of October.
00:14:26.680 And similarly, because of pressures from within his coalition, if you look, for instance, at the way the Israeli defense forces distributed the military units, there were just about two battalions guarding the entire border with Gaza.
00:14:43.800 Whereas something like 32 battalions were guarding settlements, including illegal outposts in the occupied territories, which explains why on the morning of the 7th of October, there just weren't enough soldiers to protect the civilians in Kibbutzim, like the one of my aunt and uncle.
00:15:08.340 I mean, all the soldiers or most of the soldiers were in the occupied territories.
00:15:12.460 Does it explain why it took so long for people to get to the south once the crisis began to unfold?
00:15:20.340 I mean, how long does it take to drive from the West Bank to Gaza?
00:15:24.180 I mean, you know, if you drive fast, you can get there in two hours or three hours.
00:15:27.940 But, you know, to move a military unit is a bit more complicated than that.
00:15:32.780 The army got there, but just not in time.
00:15:35.300 The Hamas terrorists just needed a few hours in control of these villages to simply go from house to house and torture and murder and kidnap everybody they found.
00:15:47.580 Right. But wasn't it a story of more like eight hours or 12 hours or 20 hours in some cases?
00:15:52.980 I'm not sure. I mean, again, within 20 hours, definitely the army was there.
00:15:57.580 But once Hamas was in control of the villages, then you had to conduct a military operation and you had thousands of Hamas terrorists.
00:16:07.380 It wasn't just, you know, a few or 10 or 20.
00:16:10.300 You have hundreds in some of the villages.
00:16:12.380 So you had to conduct very difficult urban warfare, house to house warfare by the army when you also have Israeli civilians and hostages there.
00:16:23.420 So the army had to be extremely careful.
00:16:25.360 So it takes time.
00:16:27.360 Can you tell me more about this fairly cynical game that Netanyahu played with the Palestinians with respect to encouraging Hamas, the far more extreme ruling party?
00:16:39.740 And also just the support of the settlements as well.
00:16:42.440 I mean, that's also been provocative and decidedly unhelpful if your goal were a two-state solution.
00:16:49.200 Absolutely. Yeah.
00:16:50.060 I mean, Netanyahu's recent, certainly this government and also some of his previous governments are based on an alliance, a political alliance with extremists who want indefinite Israeli control of the West Bank.
00:17:06.960 So they saw any chance of a peace process with the Palestinians as a threat to their ambitions, which basically are, you know, coming from religious fanaticism.
00:17:20.220 We also have our own messianic zealots, and they wanted full control of the territory far more than they wanted peace.
00:17:28.020 And because of that, they saw the moderate forces among Palestinians as a potential danger, whereas Hamas, that you can count on Hamas not to initiate and not to agree to any kind of peace process.
00:17:42.840 So for them, Hamas looked like an almost ideal partner that they thought, you can let Hamas rule Gaza.
00:17:51.160 Okay, you have some occasional attacks, and every year or two, you have a bigger military operation.
00:17:58.540 But on the whole, for 15 years, they just let Hamas control Gaza, turn it into a terror base and an Islamic dictatorship, and no chance of any kind of peace process while they deepen their control of the West Bank.
00:18:17.140 And this was all based on a completely mistaken view that the situation can be contained, that Hamas will continue to play by their rules.
00:18:27.860 So what's the sense among Netanyahu's critics that he should step down now, and to what degree do people think that it's more important to have the continuity of government now and to just wait until the immediate needs of the war are in the past before dealing with the political fallout for his failure?
00:18:48.560 And because he's an extremely divisive figure, and the thing you need most in the country right now is unity, the ideal thing would have been for him to take responsibility for the catastrophe and step down.
00:19:03.180 And you can do that in the middle of the war.
00:19:05.460 You know, Chamberlain stepped down and let Churchill replace him in the middle of the war, one of the worst moments of crisis in the Second World War.
00:19:14.020 If he thinks this is impossible, that he can't do it, he could still have said, I take responsibility for the catastrophe, I will step down once the situation permits it, I'm declaring elections in six months, and I will not be running to these elections.
00:19:33.820 So you can trust me now, that no matter what I did in the past, now I'm fully committed only to the interests of the Israeli nation.
00:19:43.860 And when this is over, I'm stepping down, this is the end of my political career, so you can trust me.
00:19:49.880 And he is not doing it, just the opposite.
00:19:53.040 He tries constantly to shift the blame to other people, especially in the military, and even in the protest movement.
00:20:00.020 And there is no indication that he is going to step down or to call an election or to take responsibility on himself.
00:20:08.260 You mentioned the protest movement.
00:20:09.720 This was in response to the attempted judicial coup prior to October 7th?
00:20:14.500 Yeah, I mean, what we dealt with before, which now looks like ancient history, but it was just a few months ago,
00:20:21.840 was an attempt by the Netanyahu coalition to not just change the judicial system and neutralize the Supreme Court,
00:20:30.280 it was an attempt to take unlimited power to their own hands.
00:20:36.040 In Israel, we don't have a constitution, we don't have any upper house in parliament or anything like that.
00:20:42.180 The only institution that could limit the power of a governing coalition was the Supreme Court,
00:20:48.920 and they tried to neutralize or to take over the Supreme Court,
00:20:54.120 which would have given them unlimited power to do anything they want,
00:20:59.060 to rig the election, to disenfranchise, say, Arab Israelis, whatever.
00:21:03.680 You name it, they could do it, with a minimal majority in the Israeli parliament.
00:21:07.860 So for months, you had the biggest protest movement in Israeli history,
00:21:13.600 with hundreds of thousands of people going week after week after week to protests and demonstrations to stop that.
00:21:21.520 And when the war erupted, something really remarkable happened,
00:21:25.240 that while the government and many government agencies were completely paralyzed,
00:21:30.520 the protest movement turned into the mainstay of much of the military effort,
00:21:39.040 from going to the south, to the area around the Gaza Strip,
00:21:43.980 to help people and look for survivors,
00:21:47.020 to organizing places of refuge for Israelis.
00:21:51.940 Israel now has more than 100,000 refugees,
00:21:56.220 internal refugees, people who fled the border areas and lost their homes or had to leave their homes,
00:22:02.540 and somebody needs to take care of them,
00:22:04.120 and the government is not doing a very good job.
00:22:06.200 So the protest movement stepped in.
00:22:08.740 So yeah, many of these protesters were people who said that as reservists,
00:22:14.440 they wouldn't respond to the call in protest,
00:22:17.680 and then after October 7th, everyone just put their political differences on ICE and responded, correct?
00:22:25.480 Absolutely.
00:22:26.820 And even before, I mean, it's not that the people in the protest movement said they will not respond to a call.
00:22:31.980 They said if there is a war, we will respond, of course.
00:22:35.220 But at the situation that existed back then,
00:22:39.900 they said we are not willing at the present moment to take orders from a government that is trying to assume dictatorial powers.
00:22:48.920 So what is the view, I don't know if there have been recent polls that you might recall,
00:22:56.000 or if this would just be relying on intuition here,
00:22:58.380 but what is the current state of public opinion around the settlers in the West Bank?
00:23:06.300 And I guess I have an additional question,
00:23:08.780 just what percentage of settlers do you think are actually religious extremists,
00:23:12.760 and what are people just looking for cheap land?
00:23:15.520 What is the picture of that movement,
00:23:19.780 and how much patience is there for it in Israeli society?
00:23:23.760 It seems that only a minority, I don't know how small,
00:23:27.220 but a minority are these religious extremists.
00:23:31.160 Most people got there for different reasons.
00:23:34.340 And also most of the settlements that are very close to the pre-1967 border,
00:23:39.800 so in a potential future peace treaty,
00:23:43.900 based on a two-state solution,
00:23:45.420 they should not be an impossible barrier to peace.
00:23:49.180 But you do have these more extreme groups,
00:23:54.020 who again, out of this messianic conviction,
00:23:58.140 are not interested in peace at all,
00:24:00.360 and they are dreaming about rebuilding the temple in Jerusalem,
00:24:04.640 and things like that.
00:24:06.040 And in many cases, they intentionally undermine
00:24:09.800 relations between Israelis and Palestinians,
00:24:13.020 and try to do their utmost to foil any chance for future peace.
00:24:20.780 Well, obviously, I've done previous podcasts on the contribution,
00:24:25.360 as I see it, of religious extremism to this problem on both sides,
00:24:29.500 obviously far more focused on the problem of jihadism,
00:24:32.640 both locally to Israel and globally.
00:24:35.860 I guess I'm interested in getting your sense of how vulnerable Israel is
00:24:42.840 to public opinion internationally at this point.
00:24:46.380 So the ground war has started.
00:24:48.200 It has been a catastrophe of a sort that everyone would have expected,
00:24:53.080 and certainly Hamas expected and even wanted.
00:24:56.620 I mean, they've done their best to ensure that it would be a catastrophe.
00:25:00.040 And I think many people wonder, and I'm certainly among these people,
00:25:05.180 many wonder whether there was another way for Israel to have gone about destroying Hamas
00:25:09.680 that would not have entailed seemingly doing exactly what Hamas wanted,
00:25:13.640 which is create an intense amount of civilian injury and death
00:25:20.060 in the process of trying to root them out.
00:25:22.560 So what's your view of the ground war just as a concept and as it has unfolded in recent weeks?
00:25:28.920 I can't really comment on what are the best operational plans to do this or that.
00:25:34.420 I'm not an expert on that.
00:25:36.140 What I can say is that anyone who is interested in peace
00:25:40.380 should also be in favor of disarming Hamas.
00:25:44.200 And I'm not sure what is the best way to do it.
00:25:46.460 But without disarming Hamas, there is not going to be any peace in the region.
00:25:50.380 What people need to realize is that the immediate background
00:25:54.160 to the horrific attack of the 7th of October,
00:25:58.760 that it is that we were very, very close to a historical peace deal.
00:26:04.400 Israel and Saudi Arabia were in an advanced stage of negotiations
00:26:09.560 mediated by the United States.
00:26:12.680 And according to many credible sources,
00:26:14.960 maybe we were just weeks away from signing an Israeli-Saudi treaty.
00:26:20.380 Which should have not just normalized relations
00:26:23.920 between Israel and maybe the most important Arab state,
00:26:27.380 but also opened the door to normalize relations
00:26:30.640 with much of the rest of the Arab world.
00:26:33.120 As part of this treaty,
00:26:35.180 Israel was also supposed to make significant concessions to the Palestinians.
00:26:39.260 And it was hoped that it would be also possible to restart
00:26:43.460 the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
00:26:46.520 Actually, Yuval, I just want to ask you about that point,
00:26:50.980 because that's a point I hadn't heard.
00:26:53.360 It's often described that this peace treaty with the Saudis
00:26:58.140 was an instance of Israel simply moving on
00:27:01.900 in complete disregard of the Palestinian situation,
00:27:05.580 and that Hamas could have been expected to have wanted to block that.
00:27:11.020 But you're saying that there were concessions to the Palestinians
00:27:13.800 built into those negotiations.
00:27:15.660 Absolutely, because again,
00:27:17.040 if it depended on the extremists in Netanyahu's government,
00:27:20.460 that no, you would not have any concessions to the Palestinians.
00:27:23.460 But of course, the treaty was negotiated not just by these extremists.
00:27:28.880 It was very clear, not just from the Saudi side,
00:27:32.160 but also from the Biden administration,
00:27:34.380 that there would be no treaty
00:27:35.900 unless it includes significant concessions to the Palestinians
00:27:40.140 that were supposed to alleviate at least to some degree immediately
00:27:45.100 the suffering of Palestinians in the occupied territories
00:27:48.480 and reopen the peace process.
00:27:53.440 And again, there was a lot of talk
00:27:56.860 that Netanyahu would have probably to ditch
00:27:59.320 his more extreme allies in the coalition
00:28:02.840 in order to secure this treaty.
00:28:05.640 But this was too big a prize.
00:28:08.680 If this happened,
00:28:09.620 this would have been Netanyahu's crowning achievement
00:28:11.920 of his entire career.
00:28:13.920 So again, we don't know
00:28:16.380 because Hamas intervened
00:28:18.100 that the possibility of this peace treaty
00:28:21.720 was a deadly threat,
00:28:24.020 both to Hamas and also to Iran,
00:28:27.200 Hamas's sponsor.
00:28:28.620 So the immediate aim of the attack
00:28:31.600 was to foil, to derail this chance for peace.
00:28:35.860 And the long-term aim
00:28:37.400 was to prevent any restart,
00:28:41.320 any chance for an Israeli-Palestinian peace
00:28:44.160 even in the future.
00:28:46.360 And this is why,
00:28:47.080 and this is not the first time this is happening.
00:28:49.100 I mean, Hamas, since its very foundation,
00:28:51.540 opposed any peace process
00:28:53.780 between Israel and the Palestinians.
00:28:55.260 And every time there was a significant advance
00:28:59.440 in the direction of peace,
00:29:01.120 Hamas intervened in order to stop it.
00:29:04.220 So if we want to have some chance of peace in the future,
00:29:08.620 we have to disarm Hamas.
00:29:11.320 Of course, simultaneously,
00:29:13.580 we also have to give the Palestinians
00:29:15.540 a different future
00:29:17.720 to give them the possibility
00:29:19.760 that they can see
00:29:21.240 that if they choose a different path,
00:29:23.580 they could live dignified lives
00:29:25.880 in their homeland.
00:29:27.500 And this should be, I think,
00:29:29.380 Israel's war aim
00:29:30.780 to go back to the Saudi peace treaty
00:29:34.120 and to restart the peace process
00:29:36.860 with the Palestinians.
00:29:38.380 Now, is the ground attack
00:29:40.600 in the way it is conducted right now,
00:29:43.420 is this the ideal way to disarm Hamas?
00:29:46.260 And I just don't know.
00:29:47.960 That's beyond my expertise.
00:29:49.680 But without some kind of military measures,
00:29:52.640 obviously, Hamas is not going
00:29:54.680 to disarm voluntarily.
00:29:56.680 And maybe I'll add to it something
00:29:58.520 from the bigger historical perspective
00:30:01.540 of what we are dealing with here.
00:30:04.220 If you look at decades of this conflict,
00:30:08.900 you see three big anomalies
00:30:11.880 which are intertwined with one another
00:30:15.140 and which make this conflict so complicated.
00:30:18.660 I mean, at one and the same time,
00:30:20.740 you have the anomalous situation of Israel,
00:30:24.140 which is one of the only countries in the world
00:30:26.880 which even though it's internationally recognized,
00:30:30.460 most of its neighbors
00:30:31.900 never recognized its right to exist.
00:30:35.720 Most countries take their existence for granted.
00:30:39.100 Israel doesn't.
00:30:40.720 It's very right to exist.
00:30:42.820 Forget about the exact borders.
00:30:44.300 The very right of this country to exist
00:30:47.240 has been denied from the moment it was created
00:30:50.500 by most of its neighbors.
00:30:53.260 Then you have another anomaly,
00:30:55.580 which is the situation in the occupied territories,
00:30:58.840 which is one of the only inhabited places in the world
00:31:02.980 which no country claims sovereignty over.
00:31:06.740 This makes the conflict very different
00:31:08.640 from, let's say, what's happening in Kashmir
00:31:10.780 between India and Pakistan.
00:31:12.780 There you have a piece of territory
00:31:15.100 that two countries claim sovereignty over.
00:31:18.460 In the occupied territories,
00:31:20.100 there is really,
00:31:21.100 I mean, Israel never annexed the occupied territories.
00:31:24.840 Formally, it doesn't claim
00:31:26.520 that this territory is mine.
00:31:28.840 It once belonged to Jordan,
00:31:31.300 but Jordan renounced it.
00:31:33.080 There is no Palestinian state.
00:31:36.040 So it's really one of the,
00:31:37.240 maybe the only inhabited place in the world
00:31:39.640 that no country claims as its own.
00:31:42.540 And then you have the third big anomaly,
00:31:45.360 which is this situation of eternal refugees.
00:31:48.500 That, you know,
00:31:48.820 from all the tens of millions of refugees
00:31:50.920 that were created,
00:31:53.400 that existed in the world in the 1940s,
00:31:55.820 only the Palestinians are still here.
00:31:58.560 And not because the other refugees returned
00:32:01.160 to the homes from which they were expelled,
00:32:04.220 they were absorbed and resettled
00:32:07.080 in whichever countries or territories they reached.
00:32:11.120 And what people often don't realize
00:32:13.700 is that there were more Jewish refugees
00:32:16.220 after 1948 than Muslim refugees
00:32:20.360 because Arab countries like Egypt,
00:32:23.080 like Syria, like Yemen, like Iraq,
00:32:25.940 responded to the 1948 war
00:32:28.160 by expelling Jewish communities
00:32:30.460 that lived there for hundreds,
00:32:33.100 sometimes thousands of years.
00:32:34.540 And most Jews in Israel,
00:32:37.040 they are not what, you know,
00:32:38.900 this fantasy of colonialists from Europe.
00:32:42.580 They are not even from Europe.
00:32:44.240 Most Israelis, most Israeli Jews
00:32:46.620 are indigenous Middle Eastern people
00:32:49.140 who were expelled as refugees after 1948.
00:32:52.920 So you have these three anomalies
00:32:55.500 of that Israel's right to existence
00:32:58.220 is not recognized,
00:32:59.940 that the occupied territories,
00:33:01.580 no country claims sovereignty over them,
00:33:04.020 and this perpetual status
00:33:06.000 of the Palestinian refugees.
00:33:08.180 Ideally, you could solve
00:33:10.000 all these three anomalies at one stroke,
00:33:13.000 which is what the two-state solution
00:33:14.700 was always meant to achieve,
00:33:16.880 that you get recognition
00:33:18.300 for the Israel's right to existence,
00:33:22.640 that you get a Palestinian state
00:33:24.360 in the occupied territories,
00:33:26.080 and that you solve the refugee problem
00:33:28.960 by some of them coming back
00:33:31.220 to this new Palestinian state,
00:33:32.840 and some of them getting citizenship
00:33:34.480 in countries like Lebanon,
00:33:37.000 where they lived for now for generations.
00:33:40.760 Whether we can reach this solution or not,
00:33:43.220 that's a very big question.
00:33:45.160 Yeah, and even that would be to,
00:33:47.200 that best-case scenario,
00:33:49.220 which I want to ask you
00:33:50.340 if you can see a path toward it,
00:33:52.360 but even that would be to enshrine
00:33:54.860 the very anomalies you've just described.
00:33:57.880 I mean, is there another case
00:33:59.940 of a country that was attacked on all sides
00:34:02.820 and won a defensive war,
00:34:05.640 in fact, two defensive wars,
00:34:07.820 and the security buffer claimed
00:34:11.100 in those successful acts of self-defense
00:34:14.160 was then perpetually denied them
00:34:17.760 as they were treated,
00:34:19.560 they're basically treated as aggressors
00:34:21.280 even when they were, you know,
00:34:22.700 fighting defensively and victoriously?
00:34:24.880 I mean, is there another historical example of that?
00:34:26.640 If they simply give back
00:34:27.880 the West Bank and Gaza
00:34:29.400 and return to, you know, pre-67 borders,
00:34:32.440 it's almost like they're not allowed
00:34:34.580 to win a war of self-defense.
00:34:36.940 I mean, I don't know,
00:34:37.660 are there other examples
00:34:38.660 of that kind of thing?
00:34:39.800 I'm not sure.
00:34:41.160 I mean, again, as a historian,
00:34:42.400 I tend to be cautious
00:34:44.460 about drawing historical analogies.
00:34:47.440 What I can say, again,
00:34:48.980 from a broader perspective,
00:34:50.700 is that in most ethnic conflicts
00:34:53.960 around the world,
00:34:55.140 both sides tend to be victims
00:34:57.680 and perpetrators at the same time.
00:35:00.400 And this is a very simple and banal fact
00:35:02.860 that for some reason,
00:35:04.560 most people seem incapable of grasping.
00:35:07.660 That it's very, very simple.
00:35:09.280 You can be victim and perpetrator
00:35:11.760 at one and the same time.
00:35:14.300 And so many people just refuse
00:35:16.540 to accept this simple fact of history
00:35:19.540 and think in binary terms
00:35:21.880 that one side must be 100% evil
00:35:25.660 and one side must be 100% pure and just.
00:35:29.840 And we just need to pick a side.
00:35:33.540 And this, of course, links
00:35:34.640 to these fantasies of perfect justice,
00:35:37.980 of absolute justice,
00:35:40.020 which are, this I can say
00:35:42.280 from a historical perspective,
00:35:43.700 they are always destructive.
00:35:45.500 The idea that you can achieve
00:35:47.460 absolute justice in this world
00:35:50.760 usually or almost always
00:35:53.320 leads to destructive places,
00:35:56.420 to more violence and war,
00:35:59.080 because no peace treaty
00:36:00.600 in the history of the world
00:36:01.960 provided absolute justice.
00:36:04.120 All peace treaties are based on compromise.
00:36:08.600 You have to give up something.
00:36:10.060 You won't get absolute justice
00:36:11.680 the way you understand it.
00:36:13.400 Well, there are examples of,
00:36:16.040 really, nearly miraculous examples
00:36:18.560 of profound injustice
00:36:21.200 rectified through violence
00:36:23.800 that lead to a peace
00:36:26.340 and reconciliation
00:36:27.680 and even friendship
00:36:29.880 that would have seemed impossible.
00:36:32.220 I mean, just look at
00:36:33.380 the aftermath of World War II.
00:36:35.460 I mean, we, the Allies,
00:36:38.080 dealt with the Nazis
00:36:39.160 and the Japanese
00:36:40.580 in the harshest conceivable way.
00:36:43.660 I mean, killing civilians
00:36:45.100 by the hundreds of thousands,
00:36:47.860 the necessity of that
00:36:49.100 certainly can be debated.
00:36:50.440 But, I mean,
00:36:50.980 we dropped two atomic bombs
00:36:53.380 on Japan
00:36:54.260 and rebuilt those societies
00:36:56.880 and found in them
00:36:58.420 enduring friendships.
00:37:00.040 And even the Israelis,
00:37:02.460 you know,
00:37:02.660 and the Jews of Israel
00:37:04.420 and the Jews elsewhere
00:37:05.420 view Germany now
00:37:07.740 as a totally benign
00:37:10.360 or being a better than benign
00:37:11.900 influence in the world.
00:37:14.100 That kind of future
00:37:16.420 seems impossible
00:37:18.320 with respect to Israel
00:37:20.760 and the Palestinians.
00:37:22.100 And it really,
00:37:23.320 it shouldn't be.
00:37:24.540 But the one wrinkle
00:37:25.820 that, you know,
00:37:27.160 as I think you know,
00:37:27.900 I focus on a lot
00:37:29.160 is the role
00:37:30.680 that Islamic extremism,
00:37:32.560 specifically jihadism
00:37:33.880 and the doctrines
00:37:35.040 of martyrdom
00:37:35.640 play here.
00:37:37.080 And it's,
00:37:38.000 it just seems,
00:37:38.820 in terms of the kind of,
00:37:40.400 the ratchet of ideology
00:37:42.060 and hatred
00:37:43.820 and destructive,
00:37:44.840 the destructive power
00:37:46.000 of ideas,
00:37:46.940 it is a kind of final turn
00:37:49.060 to that diabolical machinery,
00:37:51.320 which strikes me
00:37:53.420 as worse
00:37:54.120 than basically anything else
00:37:55.820 that the human mind
00:37:57.340 has produced.
00:37:58.040 I mean,
00:37:58.220 once you get a true
00:37:59.580 otherworldliness,
00:38:01.100 a true expectation
00:38:02.220 of paradise,
00:38:03.400 it seems to me
00:38:03.960 that all,
00:38:04.580 all rational negotiation
00:38:06.080 about the state
00:38:06.960 of the world
00:38:07.720 and any terrestrial demand
00:38:09.280 that any group
00:38:10.020 might make upon it,
00:38:11.320 all of that goes
00:38:11.960 out the window
00:38:12.840 and you just have
00:38:13.820 a death cult.
00:38:15.120 So one anomaly
00:38:16.020 I see here
00:38:16.780 is that
00:38:17.340 in dealing with a group
00:38:19.040 like Hamas,
00:38:19.820 which is,
00:38:20.360 you know,
00:38:21.020 arguably not as extreme
00:38:22.300 as the Islamic State,
00:38:23.580 but extreme enough
00:38:24.860 to be a death cult,
00:38:26.340 the logic that most people
00:38:28.240 try to lay over
00:38:29.820 this current conflict
00:38:31.000 simply doesn't work.
00:38:32.400 So most people think
00:38:33.180 in terms of cycles
00:38:34.160 of violence,
00:38:34.940 right?
00:38:35.220 That,
00:38:35.420 you know,
00:38:35.560 and the point you just made
00:38:37.980 certainly still stands
00:38:39.300 that,
00:38:39.540 you know,
00:38:39.620 you can be both a victim
00:38:40.760 and a perpetrator.
00:38:41.960 So you're a victim
00:38:43.360 trying to defend yourself
00:38:45.100 rationally
00:38:45.840 and yet,
00:38:47.000 of course,
00:38:47.960 you're going to create
00:38:48.660 casualties
00:38:49.640 and,
00:38:50.620 you know,
00:38:50.800 collateral damage
00:38:51.640 and kill children
00:38:52.820 on the other side
00:38:53.660 and when you do that,
00:38:55.780 you're going to make
00:38:56.620 nearly permanent enemies
00:38:58.360 of that population
00:38:59.640 and the cycle of violence
00:39:00.900 will continue.
00:39:02.080 Yes,
00:39:02.400 that,
00:39:02.700 we have that horrible
00:39:03.820 dynamic also going,
00:39:06.000 but in addition to that,
00:39:07.620 we have people
00:39:08.400 who simply do not care
00:39:10.880 about the deaths
00:39:12.580 of non-combatants.
00:39:13.560 In fact,
00:39:13.920 that's part of the plan
00:39:15.580 and,
00:39:17.100 in fact,
00:39:17.520 their own deaths
00:39:18.460 are also expected
00:39:20.100 and part of the plan.
00:39:21.140 because martyrdom
00:39:22.580 is sincerely believed in
00:39:24.340 and,
00:39:25.220 so I'm just wondering
00:39:26.200 what you,
00:39:27.360 I mean,
00:39:27.620 I think,
00:39:28.260 I think you would
00:39:29.160 certainly agree
00:39:29.760 that that level
00:39:30.660 of religious extremism
00:39:32.220 is unhelpful,
00:39:33.760 but,
00:39:34.380 I mean,
00:39:34.600 can you imagine,
00:39:35.200 I guess,
00:39:35.860 the only ray of hope
00:39:36.740 I see here
00:39:37.340 and perhaps you can give me
00:39:38.000 some perspective on this
00:39:39.060 is that there is a
00:39:40.120 Palestinian population
00:39:41.420 inside of Israel.
00:39:42.960 There are Palestinian
00:39:43.620 citizens of Israel,
00:39:45.480 presumably most of them,
00:39:47.620 you know,
00:39:47.860 nearly all of them
00:39:48.980 are integrated
00:39:50.220 into the society
00:39:51.380 such that you can see
00:39:52.900 a possibility
00:39:53.820 where the Jews
00:39:54.960 and the Palestinians
00:39:55.800 live in peace
00:39:56.680 in the same region.
00:39:58.140 Give me some sense
00:39:59.320 of your optimism
00:40:00.680 and pessimism
00:40:01.420 about this whole gestalt.
00:40:02.760 Okay,
00:40:03.720 so a lot of things
00:40:04.740 to say.
00:40:05.160 First of all,
00:40:06.120 yeah,
00:40:06.680 you know,
00:40:07.040 on October 7th,
00:40:08.800 Hamas murdered
00:40:09.980 and kidnapped
00:40:10.700 not only Jewish Israelis,
00:40:13.160 also Muslim Israelis.
00:40:14.760 Among the victims
00:40:16.160 have been
00:40:17.060 a significant number
00:40:18.220 of Muslims
00:40:19.560 who were murdered
00:40:20.840 by Hamas
00:40:21.740 like an ambulance driver
00:40:23.380 who tried
00:40:24.760 to rescue people
00:40:25.660 and just,
00:40:26.840 just,
00:40:27.280 just Bedouin civilians
00:40:29.240 who lived nearby
00:40:30.580 and rushed to the place
00:40:32.140 to try and save people
00:40:33.460 and were murdered
00:40:34.360 by Hamas.
00:40:35.560 There are a couple
00:40:36.400 of Muslim Israelis
00:40:37.680 kidnapped right now
00:40:38.820 in Gaza
00:40:39.440 by Hamas
00:40:40.540 and what we saw
00:40:42.740 with,
00:40:43.600 you know,
00:40:43.920 the unification
00:40:44.580 of the Israeli nation
00:40:45.940 in the face
00:40:46.860 of this atrocity,
00:40:48.300 lots of people feared
00:40:49.900 and some people
00:40:51.360 on the Israeli right
00:40:52.640 claimed
00:40:53.320 that we will now see
00:40:54.960 an uprising
00:40:55.800 of Arab Israelis
00:40:57.580 against the Israeli state.
00:41:00.080 The exact opposite
00:41:01.440 happened.
00:41:02.140 that there has been
00:41:03.600 almost no incidents
00:41:05.220 of physical violence
00:41:07.140 by Arab Israelis.
00:41:10.740 Instead,
00:41:11.800 you saw people
00:41:13.040 volunteering
00:41:14.080 and helping
00:41:15.200 to displaced communities
00:41:17.440 in hospitals,
00:41:19.260 in so many places.
00:41:20.740 If you want really
00:41:21.460 to speak with somebody
00:41:22.580 who I think
00:41:23.520 is one of the most
00:41:24.220 hopeful leaders
00:41:26.060 on the scene,
00:41:27.540 I warmly recommend
00:41:29.160 you speak with
00:41:29.780 Mansour Abbas.
00:41:30.540 Mansour Abbas
00:41:32.440 is the leader
00:41:33.740 of an Islamist party
00:41:35.720 here in Israel
00:41:37.140 who was a member
00:41:38.820 of the short-lived
00:41:40.300 previous government,
00:41:42.960 the Bennett-Lapid government.
00:41:44.580 I think it's the only case
00:41:46.240 when an Islamist party
00:41:48.340 was a member
00:41:49.460 of a democratic government
00:41:51.380 in a Western democracy.
00:41:52.660 And it worked well.
00:41:55.280 He's a very moderate
00:41:56.400 leader.
00:41:57.280 He made some of the
00:41:58.780 sanest pronouncements
00:42:00.380 that I've heard
00:42:01.660 in recent weeks
00:42:02.920 from almost anyone,
00:42:04.180 anybody in the world
00:42:05.000 about the conflict.
00:42:07.500 And if we have
00:42:09.120 more people
00:42:09.660 like Mansour Abbas,
00:42:10.700 I think there is hope.
00:42:12.240 He's often called
00:42:13.300 the bravest person
00:42:14.440 in the Middle East.
00:42:15.240 I've got to imagine
00:42:16.620 he has his own
00:42:17.960 security concerns.
00:42:19.260 He's the number one
00:42:21.660 target
00:42:22.160 of a lot
00:42:23.860 of people here.
00:42:25.540 I'd love to speak
00:42:26.620 with him.
00:42:27.100 I don't know
00:42:27.580 if anyone on your side
00:42:28.560 could help connect me
00:42:29.520 with him,
00:42:29.820 but I would love
00:42:30.300 to speak with him.
00:42:30.840 Yeah,
00:42:31.420 we'll be happy to
00:42:33.540 afterwards
00:42:34.120 to try and connect.
00:42:36.040 With regard to extremism,
00:42:37.280 I fully agree with you
00:42:38.640 that religious extremism,
00:42:40.180 I mean,
00:42:40.560 the one,
00:42:43.580 the biggest reason
00:42:46.360 for the horrendous
00:42:47.420 cycle of violence
00:42:48.280 in my region
00:42:49.700 of the world
00:42:50.240 is religious extremism.
00:42:52.120 But as a historian,
00:42:53.840 I would say
00:42:54.560 that extremism
00:42:55.780 of any kind
00:42:56.640 is dangerous.
00:42:59.640 And what the 20th century
00:43:00.820 showed us
00:43:01.560 that not only
00:43:03.700 paradise
00:43:04.420 in some other world
00:43:06.620 can lead
00:43:07.880 to murderous extremism,
00:43:09.880 paradise on earth
00:43:10.880 as the one imagined
00:43:12.520 by Marxists
00:43:14.160 and Stalinists
00:43:15.300 has equal
00:43:16.920 dangerous potential.
00:43:18.180 I never understood
00:43:19.220 how Marxists
00:43:20.540 think about
00:43:21.480 what happens
00:43:22.000 to you after you die.
00:43:23.740 And what's the point
00:43:24.760 of dying
00:43:25.200 for the revolution
00:43:25.960 if you're dead
00:43:27.220 and you can't witness
00:43:28.300 the revolution?
00:43:29.340 So you would think
00:43:30.140 they would be
00:43:30.680 less extreme
00:43:31.540 than the jihadists.
00:43:33.300 But if you look
00:43:34.200 at the history
00:43:34.860 of the 20th century
00:43:35.940 in places
00:43:37.460 like the Soviet Union,
00:43:39.660 then they give them
00:43:40.700 a hard fight,
00:43:41.460 I would say that,
00:43:42.640 to the jihadists
00:43:43.680 in terms of
00:43:44.400 what they are willing
00:43:45.120 to do.
00:43:46.020 And in terms
00:43:46.940 of hope
00:43:47.780 and justice
00:43:49.940 and what we talked
00:43:51.900 earlier about
00:43:52.700 1945
00:43:53.620 and the end
00:43:54.480 of the Second World War,
00:43:55.460 so the end
00:43:56.460 of the Second World War
00:43:57.280 did not bring
00:43:58.060 absolute justice.
00:43:59.300 If you think,
00:44:00.180 for instance,
00:44:00.480 about the fate
00:44:01.380 of Poland,
00:44:02.720 so in many ways
00:44:04.180 the Second World War,
00:44:05.180 at least in Europe,
00:44:05.960 started over Poland,
00:44:07.740 protecting Poland
00:44:08.580 from Nazi
00:44:10.020 totalitarianism
00:44:11.360 and it ended
00:44:12.360 with the Allies
00:44:13.720 giving control
00:44:15.180 of Poland
00:44:15.760 to Soviet
00:44:16.660 totalitarianism
00:44:17.960 because they really
00:44:18.980 had no choice.
00:44:19.780 And looking back,
00:44:22.080 most people,
00:44:23.080 maybe not in Poland,
00:44:24.140 but certainly in Britain
00:44:25.220 or the US,
00:44:26.000 would say,
00:44:26.560 yes,
00:44:26.840 this was the better option
00:44:28.040 than to go to
00:44:29.420 a Third World War
00:44:30.600 with the Soviets
00:44:31.340 immediately
00:44:31.980 over the fate
00:44:33.220 of Poland
00:44:33.860 and Eastern Europe.
00:44:35.620 But there is,
00:44:36.760 I mention Poland
00:44:37.920 because there is
00:44:38.880 a very hopeful story
00:44:40.160 that most people
00:44:41.500 don't know
00:44:42.180 because in history
00:44:43.220 very often
00:44:43.860 the hopeful stories
00:44:45.180 get lost
00:44:46.080 because they don't
00:44:47.420 generate a lot
00:44:48.280 of violence
00:44:48.960 and bloodshed
00:44:50.000 and death
00:44:50.660 so you don't
00:44:51.360 hear about them.
00:44:52.480 You know,
00:44:52.720 when the Soviet bloc
00:44:54.120 eventually collapsed
00:44:55.200 in the late 80s,
00:44:56.860 early 90s,
00:44:57.860 everybody heard
00:44:58.860 about the wars
00:45:00.020 in Yugoslavia.
00:45:01.280 And the impression
00:45:02.040 of many people
00:45:02.920 is that this was
00:45:03.740 just inevitable
00:45:04.560 because of the
00:45:05.840 age-old ethnic
00:45:07.360 hatreds
00:45:08.360 and conflicts
00:45:09.240 in the Balkans.
00:45:11.500 And people
00:45:12.220 explain to you
00:45:13.700 about how
00:45:14.480 Croats
00:45:15.120 and Serbs
00:45:15.940 killed each other
00:45:17.060 in the 1940s
00:45:18.560 and then
00:45:19.560 when communism
00:45:20.440 broke down,
00:45:21.560 this frozen
00:45:22.280 conflict
00:45:23.000 was defrozen
00:45:24.940 and they
00:45:26.040 continued
00:45:26.420 killing each other.
00:45:27.620 What people
00:45:28.320 don't talk about
00:45:29.240 is the conflict
00:45:31.420 between Poles,
00:45:32.720 Lithuanians
00:45:33.480 and Ukrainians.
00:45:34.720 In the 1940s,
00:45:37.040 there were
00:45:37.680 ethnic cleansing
00:45:38.520 and hundreds
00:45:39.700 of thousands
00:45:40.160 of people
00:45:40.800 murdered,
00:45:41.920 tortured,
00:45:42.900 expelled
00:45:43.180 from their homes
00:45:44.040 in mutual
00:45:45.200 conflicts
00:45:46.300 between Poles,
00:45:47.540 Lithuanians
00:45:48.260 and Ukrainians.
00:45:49.980 And the
00:45:50.400 arrangements
00:45:51.040 at the end
00:45:52.020 of the Second
00:45:52.660 World War,
00:45:53.880 they took
00:45:54.540 many territories
00:45:56.400 which previously
00:45:57.600 belonged to
00:45:58.360 Poland
00:45:58.680 and gave them
00:46:00.280 to Lithuania,
00:46:01.780 the city of
00:46:02.280 Vilna,
00:46:02.780 Vilnius,
00:46:03.440 which is the
00:46:04.020 capital of
00:46:04.540 Lithuania,
00:46:05.840 was part of
00:46:06.720 Poland.
00:46:07.380 It was a Polish
00:46:08.000 city to some
00:46:08.660 extent before the
00:46:09.600 war.
00:46:10.380 And in Ukraine,
00:46:11.180 you had the
00:46:11.560 same thing
00:46:12.160 with all
00:46:13.060 the territory
00:46:13.760 around Lviv
00:46:15.280 or Lvov.
00:46:16.840 Now,
00:46:17.180 lots of people
00:46:17.880 expected that
00:46:19.580 with the end
00:46:20.360 of the Cold
00:46:20.880 War,
00:46:21.640 the conflict
00:46:22.220 between Poland,
00:46:23.260 Lithuanians,
00:46:24.060 Poles,
00:46:24.680 Lithuanians
00:46:25.220 and Ukrainians
00:46:26.000 will also be
00:46:27.240 defrozen.
00:46:28.640 And you would
00:46:29.140 have this wave
00:46:30.140 of wars
00:46:30.940 as Poland
00:46:31.820 tried to reclaim
00:46:33.060 Vilnius
00:46:34.180 and Lviv
00:46:34.760 and everybody
00:46:36.180 goes back
00:46:37.100 to the terrible
00:46:37.640 memories from
00:46:38.240 the 1940s.
00:46:39.620 And it
00:46:39.960 didn't happen.
00:46:41.560 The Polish
00:46:42.240 government
00:46:42.740 had a very
00:46:44.280 conscious policy.
00:46:45.700 It wasn't an
00:46:46.200 accident.
00:46:46.860 It was a
00:46:47.340 conscious policy.
00:46:48.880 They came
00:46:49.740 to the
00:46:50.300 governments of
00:46:50.960 Lithuania
00:46:51.480 and Ukraine
00:46:52.640 and to the
00:46:53.260 people,
00:46:53.860 to the nations
00:46:54.440 themselves,
00:46:55.260 and they told
00:46:56.440 them,
00:46:57.040 we don't want
00:46:58.200 to go back
00:46:58.880 to the past.
00:47:00.220 The past
00:47:00.900 is gone,
00:47:01.800 is done,
00:47:02.500 it's over.
00:47:03.500 We are focusing
00:47:04.440 on the future.
00:47:05.960 We do not
00:47:06.640 want Vilnius
00:47:07.680 back.
00:47:08.280 It's yours.
00:47:09.160 It's the capital
00:47:09.720 of Lithuania.
00:47:10.400 We do not
00:47:11.400 want Lviv,
00:47:12.540 Lvov back.
00:47:13.640 It's part of
00:47:14.420 Ukraine.
00:47:15.080 That's over.
00:47:16.520 We want to be
00:47:17.160 good friends
00:47:17.620 with you.
00:47:18.520 And it worked.
00:47:20.260 And when you
00:47:20.800 look at the
00:47:21.260 conflict now
00:47:21.980 in Ukraine,
00:47:23.220 and despite
00:47:23.940 some hiccups,
00:47:25.380 the Poland
00:47:26.000 and the Polish
00:47:26.840 people have
00:47:27.860 been maybe
00:47:28.920 the greatest
00:47:29.580 support,
00:47:30.140 or one of the
00:47:30.600 greatest supporters
00:47:31.480 of Ukraine,
00:47:32.660 receiving millions
00:47:33.740 of Ukrainian
00:47:34.440 refugees.
00:47:35.520 and in
00:47:37.060 the 1940s,
00:47:38.280 this would
00:47:38.780 have sounded
00:47:39.620 unthinkable.
00:47:41.000 And this
00:47:41.700 was a choice.
00:47:42.960 And I think
00:47:43.280 this is a choice
00:47:43.980 in every
00:47:44.680 ethnic conflict,
00:47:46.200 whether you
00:47:46.720 look to the
00:47:47.300 past or you
00:47:48.380 look to the
00:47:48.840 future.
00:47:49.860 And I will
00:47:50.280 say one more
00:47:50.800 thing about it.
00:47:51.480 As a historian,
00:47:52.600 I think the
00:47:53.240 curse of
00:47:54.020 history is
00:47:55.320 the attempt
00:47:55.980 to correct
00:47:57.440 the past,
00:47:58.640 to save
00:47:59.220 the past.
00:47:59.860 If we could
00:48:00.600 only go back
00:48:01.560 to the past
00:48:02.300 and save
00:48:03.200 these people,
00:48:03.900 and we
00:48:04.660 can't.
00:48:05.360 We can't
00:48:06.220 go back
00:48:06.700 to the
00:48:06.980 past and
00:48:07.560 save the
00:48:08.020 people who
00:48:08.780 are massacred
00:48:09.500 on the
00:48:09.820 7th of
00:48:10.220 October in
00:48:10.860 Israel,
00:48:11.500 or go back
00:48:12.060 to the
00:48:12.320 Holocaust and
00:48:13.020 say,
00:48:13.260 no,
00:48:13.500 it's
00:48:13.680 impossible.
00:48:14.940 And we
00:48:15.620 can't go
00:48:16.080 back to
00:48:16.400 the past
00:48:16.940 and try
00:48:18.040 to do
00:48:19.100 a different
00:48:20.000 narrative
00:48:20.800 of the
00:48:21.720 Israeli-Palestinian
00:48:22.960 conflict.
00:48:24.420 What we
00:48:24.720 need to do
00:48:25.260 is stop
00:48:27.100 using the
00:48:28.740 injuries of
00:48:29.520 the past
00:48:30.120 as an
00:48:30.640 excuse
00:48:31.160 for fresh
00:48:32.520 injuries in
00:48:33.640 the present
00:48:34.200 and instead
00:48:35.560 think constructively
00:48:37.040 about how
00:48:37.880 we can
00:48:38.260 heal the
00:48:39.420 injuries
00:48:39.900 and create
00:48:42.180 peace which
00:48:43.540 will not
00:48:44.060 give absolute
00:48:44.800 justice to
00:48:45.500 anybody but
00:48:46.560 will create
00:48:47.120 a better
00:48:47.400 future for
00:48:48.300 everybody.
00:48:49.760 Well, one
00:48:50.140 of the reasons
00:48:50.520 why it's so
00:48:51.160 untenable to
00:48:52.160 continue trying
00:48:54.280 to rectify the
00:48:55.000 past is that,
00:48:55.920 you know,
00:48:56.160 by your
00:48:57.060 description,
00:48:58.260 every group
00:48:59.040 has a
00:48:59.960 partial but
00:49:01.040 nonetheless
00:49:01.400 accurate picture
00:49:02.740 of the past
00:49:03.620 wherein they
00:49:04.740 are the
00:49:05.000 victim and
00:49:05.540 the other
00:49:05.880 group is
00:49:06.240 the perpetrator
00:49:06.860 and it's
00:49:08.160 impossible to
00:49:08.860 reconcile those
00:49:09.940 two visions
00:49:10.500 because they're
00:49:11.560 mutually
00:49:11.940 cancelling.
00:49:13.020 And it should
00:49:14.140 theoretically have
00:49:14.940 been possible.
00:49:15.880 You know,
00:49:16.060 this is what is
00:49:16.640 known as
00:49:17.300 theory of
00:49:17.940 mind,
00:49:18.920 that children
00:49:19.680 beyond the
00:49:20.300 age of,
00:49:20.940 I'm not sure
00:49:21.580 which age,
00:49:22.140 but beyond a
00:49:22.600 certain age,
00:49:23.360 people should
00:49:24.020 have the
00:49:24.380 capacity to
00:49:25.560 go into the
00:49:26.460 mind of
00:49:26.900 another person
00:49:27.680 and understand
00:49:28.640 that she
00:49:29.580 or he
00:49:30.200 or him,
00:49:31.040 they see
00:49:31.520 reality from
00:49:32.220 a different
00:49:32.580 perspective than
00:49:33.260 me.
00:49:34.380 And this is
00:49:34.920 the basis
00:49:35.320 for all
00:49:35.780 social relations,
00:49:37.040 but unfortunately
00:49:38.460 there are many
00:49:39.440 cases like the
00:49:40.480 current conflict
00:49:41.240 when theory of
00:49:42.460 mind breaks
00:49:43.400 down and it
00:49:44.760 becomes almost
00:49:45.660 impossible
00:49:46.480 psychologically
00:49:47.260 for people
00:49:48.660 to realize
00:49:49.720 that others
00:49:51.040 see reality
00:49:52.000 differently than
00:49:52.800 us.
00:49:54.020 To give you
00:49:54.380 a glimpse
00:49:55.420 of my theory
00:49:56.400 of mind
00:49:56.940 and this is
00:49:58.400 how I sort
00:49:59.280 dissect out
00:50:00.080 the layer
00:50:00.600 of religious
00:50:01.160 extremism
00:50:01.880 of the
00:50:02.840 Islamic
00:50:03.260 sort
00:50:03.840 that is
00:50:04.500 riding over
00:50:05.240 this entire
00:50:06.020 catastrophe.
00:50:07.800 I mean,
00:50:07.940 so for instance,
00:50:09.060 the Israelis
00:50:09.700 have very little
00:50:10.440 leverage with
00:50:11.380 respect to
00:50:12.180 Hamas now.
00:50:13.360 I mean,
00:50:13.520 it seems that
00:50:14.420 Hamas doesn't
00:50:15.200 care,
00:50:16.200 in fact,
00:50:17.060 wants them
00:50:17.580 to bomb
00:50:18.280 indiscriminately
00:50:19.300 and kill
00:50:19.820 lots of
00:50:20.280 civilians.
00:50:21.140 That works
00:50:21.900 for their
00:50:22.340 propaganda
00:50:23.020 purposes.
00:50:24.080 But they
00:50:24.820 actually do
00:50:25.240 have leverage.
00:50:26.640 I describe
00:50:27.520 this idea
00:50:28.120 in no way
00:50:29.060 endorsing it
00:50:29.820 and you'll
00:50:30.600 see why
00:50:31.300 in a moment.
00:50:31.800 But they
00:50:32.580 have a
00:50:32.860 building,
00:50:33.320 they have
00:50:33.600 the Al-Aqsa
00:50:34.300 Mosque
00:50:34.860 that everyone
00:50:35.920 really claims
00:50:37.000 to care about.
00:50:37.900 Hamas cares
00:50:38.620 about it,
00:50:39.160 every jihadist
00:50:39.860 organization
00:50:40.420 on earth
00:50:40.820 cares about it,
00:50:42.000 Muslims
00:50:42.320 everywhere
00:50:42.760 care about it,
00:50:43.480 any group
00:50:44.280 that could
00:50:44.820 have leverage
00:50:45.600 with Hamas,
00:50:46.380 the Iranians
00:50:47.320 or any
00:50:48.000 other group
00:50:49.320 cares about it.
00:50:50.680 They could
00:50:51.280 say,
00:50:51.700 listen,
00:50:52.240 you know,
00:50:53.180 we don't
00:50:53.480 much like
00:50:53.900 this building
00:50:54.440 that you
00:50:55.000 care so much
00:50:55.540 about.
00:50:56.320 If you
00:50:56.840 don't return
00:50:57.280 the hostages
00:50:57.920 in 48
00:50:58.500 hours,
00:50:59.020 we're going
00:50:59.540 to demolish
00:51:00.160 it.
00:51:01.320 I'll put it
00:51:02.180 to you.
00:51:02.520 What do you
00:51:02.980 think would
00:51:03.280 happen if
00:51:04.080 they did
00:51:04.400 that?
00:51:05.180 The Third
00:51:05.780 World War?
00:51:07.100 Exactly.
00:51:08.900 So,
00:51:09.120 I mean,
00:51:09.280 literally,
00:51:10.740 I would
00:51:11.120 expect,
00:51:11.700 and I think
00:51:12.000 everyone would
00:51:12.900 expect,
00:51:13.320 not just
00:51:13.840 World War
00:51:15.620 Three or
00:51:16.060 something quite
00:51:16.860 like it,
00:51:18.020 but they
00:51:18.340 would expect
00:51:19.040 buildings in
00:51:20.780 London and
00:51:22.000 Paris to
00:51:22.840 also burn,
00:51:23.980 right?
00:51:24.300 I mean,
00:51:24.540 just literally
00:51:25.360 an uprising
00:51:26.760 the world
00:51:27.420 over of
00:51:28.560 a sort
00:51:28.960 that no
00:51:30.140 one could
00:51:30.660 possibly
00:51:31.320 contemplate.
00:51:32.820 So what
00:51:33.160 we have,
00:51:33.740 what we're
00:51:34.280 all acceding
00:51:35.220 to here
00:51:36.320 is a
00:51:37.300 picture of
00:51:38.040 the Muslim
00:51:38.500 community
00:51:39.040 worldwide
00:51:39.700 that is so
00:51:40.900 combustible
00:51:41.620 and it's so
00:51:42.680 provocable on
00:51:44.180 the basis of
00:51:44.840 pure religious
00:51:46.240 symbolism,
00:51:47.100 right?
00:51:47.280 It's not that
00:51:47.760 they don't care
00:51:48.480 when Assad
00:51:49.840 kills hundreds
00:51:50.800 of thousands
00:51:51.360 of their
00:51:51.800 fellow Muslims.
00:51:52.520 There's not
00:51:53.340 a single
00:51:53.680 protest over
00:51:54.460 that.
00:51:55.280 They don't
00:51:55.600 care when
00:51:56.460 the Saudis
00:51:58.180 kill over
00:51:59.220 100,000
00:51:59.820 people in
00:52:00.320 Yemen.
00:52:01.140 They really
00:52:01.640 do care when
00:52:02.400 the Jews
00:52:02.840 start killing
00:52:03.580 Muslims,
00:52:04.480 as we see
00:52:05.200 in Gaza,
00:52:06.080 but they
00:52:06.660 care even
00:52:07.320 more about
00:52:08.760 religious symbols,
00:52:10.120 right?
00:52:10.300 They care about
00:52:10.780 the cartoons
00:52:11.480 of the prophet
00:52:12.060 Muhammad.
00:52:12.640 That's what
00:52:13.280 causes embassies
00:52:14.320 to burn in
00:52:15.500 a dozen cities.
00:52:16.800 And if the
00:52:17.500 Israelis said,
00:52:18.380 listen,
00:52:18.680 we're so sick
00:52:19.500 of killing
00:52:19.940 your children,
00:52:21.060 we're just
00:52:21.460 going to destroy
00:52:22.000 this building
00:52:22.680 unless you
00:52:23.860 give us
00:52:24.100 our hostages
00:52:24.600 back,
00:52:25.340 that would
00:52:25.840 be a
00:52:26.080 provocation
00:52:26.800 that would
00:52:27.560 overturn
00:52:28.680 this period
00:52:29.860 in history.
00:52:31.260 So that
00:52:32.220 is a
00:52:32.480 completely
00:52:33.020 insane
00:52:34.280 and untenable
00:52:35.260 status quo,
00:52:36.480 right?
00:52:36.680 I mean,
00:52:36.940 my view is
00:52:38.040 that the
00:52:38.320 Muslim world
00:52:38.920 has to
00:52:39.440 figure out
00:52:40.080 how to
00:52:41.080 perform
00:52:42.180 an exorcism
00:52:43.760 on itself
00:52:44.480 such that
00:52:45.100 that is not
00:52:46.000 the level
00:52:46.580 of religious
00:52:47.100 fanaticism,
00:52:48.400 generally speaking,
00:52:49.820 in the Muslim
00:52:50.440 community,
00:52:50.980 in a hundred
00:52:51.880 countries.
00:52:52.780 We're dealing
00:52:53.360 with the
00:52:53.700 Christians of
00:52:54.200 the 14th
00:52:54.740 century.
00:52:55.740 There's no
00:52:56.160 other community
00:52:56.920 that is combustible
00:52:58.420 like this.
00:52:59.020 If the Israelis
00:53:00.020 destroyed the
00:53:00.880 Church of the
00:53:01.340 Nativity,
00:53:02.380 there wouldn't
00:53:02.860 be a Christian
00:53:03.560 uprising the
00:53:04.940 world over,
00:53:06.120 and for good
00:53:06.740 reason,
00:53:07.240 because as
00:53:07.860 sentimental as
00:53:08.800 people are
00:53:09.420 about it,
00:53:10.240 it is just
00:53:10.700 a building.
00:53:11.920 So from my
00:53:12.840 point of view,
00:53:13.660 the underlying
00:53:14.440 problem that we
00:53:15.720 really have to
00:53:16.380 deal with is
00:53:17.060 there is an
00:53:17.760 ambient level
00:53:18.600 of religious
00:53:19.080 fanaticism
00:53:19.860 that is
00:53:20.600 totally at
00:53:21.380 odds with
00:53:22.520 a pluralistic
00:53:23.980 civilization in
00:53:25.200 the 21st
00:53:25.780 century,
00:53:26.220 and we have
00:53:26.520 to figure out
00:53:27.040 how to
00:53:28.260 release that
00:53:29.020 pressure,
00:53:29.960 the operative
00:53:30.720 pressure of
00:53:31.260 that ideology
00:53:32.060 and the
00:53:32.420 commitment to
00:53:32.920 it.
00:53:33.580 And until we
00:53:34.180 do that,
00:53:34.800 that is always
00:53:35.500 going to be
00:53:35.900 casting a
00:53:36.420 shadow over
00:53:37.080 all of these
00:53:37.840 kinds of
00:53:38.400 moments.
00:53:38.760 Yeah, I
00:53:39.740 think basically
00:53:40.980 what we can
00:53:42.560 say is that
00:53:43.660 in history,
00:53:44.920 story matters.
00:53:46.620 The stories in
00:53:47.900 people's minds
00:53:48.960 are often the
00:53:50.960 most powerful
00:53:51.680 forces that
00:53:53.140 shape history,
00:53:54.860 that shape
00:53:55.360 politics and
00:53:56.780 culture, and
00:53:59.060 this is a
00:54:00.580 large part of
00:54:01.280 what it means
00:54:02.020 to do
00:54:02.360 history, is
00:54:03.320 to listen to
00:54:04.340 the stories
00:54:05.160 that people
00:54:05.800 tell you.
00:54:06.360 If you'd
00:54:12.980 like to
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