Making Sense - Sam Harris - November 11, 2026


#502 — The Rebuke

#501 — The Performance of Empathy

Episode Stats


Length

26 minutes

Words per minute

175.35

Word count

4,708

Sentence count

208

Harmful content

Toxicity

16

sentences flagged

Hate speech

10

sentences flagged


Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
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00:00:22 i'm here with jonah goldberg jonah it's great to see you again it's great to be back thanks
00:00:29 for having me. So I can only imagine that you have done 12 podcasts and been on CNN 15 times
00:00:36 post midterms, but I've yet to talk about it. So if you're not too sick of the sound of your
00:00:43 own voice, I want you to be my oracle here. There's really nobody I would rather talk to
00:00:48 about the aftermath. But before we jump into the election postmortem proper, did you see the 60
00:00:54 Minutes interview with Trump last night? I did. I thought it was great. Yeah, I thought Ross did
00:00:58 a great job i i don't know what i was expecting going in but i felt that his i i mean trump is
00:01:04 successfully evasive in ways that are still fairly supernatural but ross cut in with rational
00:01:12 questions again and again and again i thought it was really um i have nothing but respect for how
00:01:17 he handled his side of that interview yeah i do think it's a bit of a triumph for i mean ross is
00:01:21 a friend and i was i was nervous for him because a lot of people have been steamrolled by trump oh
00:01:26 and i'd say it's probably the with the exception of jonathan swan who did a really fantastic
00:01:33 interview with him a while back i would say it's it's the best one i can remember and i want to
00:01:38 give a little shout out to print people um because there is something about tv broadcasters that i
00:01:45 don't want to cast dispersions to colleagues at any of the networks or anything but like there
00:01:49 is something about ross's way of doing things from being a print guy i think that lends itself
00:01:56 really well to this about you know and recognizing that trump wants to do the weave right and go on
00:02:03 his normal talking points and and ross went in just very prepared as you know as is his want
00:02:08 so i thought it was good there were some people were complaining about the interruptions but i
00:02:12 think the interruptions were vitally necessary oh yeah oh yeah because otherwise it was just 0.98
00:02:16 going to be the same bullshit like you know meandering you know nursing home patient 0.96
00:02:20 wandering off into the snow kind of stuff and i i thought you know there's some answers i would 0.99
00:02:25 have loved to hear a more fulsome answer, but I think Ross's instinct was that Trump was looking
00:02:31 for all sorts of exit ramps to evade. And so he had to intervene. And I thought it was great.
00:02:37 Yeah. He managed to do it without being adversarial in a way that Trump would have
00:02:43 had a bad reaction to. I really thought it was a very impressive high wire act on death's part.
00:02:49 And I don't know if there's anything in the interview that you want to reflect on. I mean,
00:02:54 I mean, the first thing I was going to say about the election is that the most gratifying thing from my point of view is that we have proven to ourselves that we can hold an election that is really incontestable.
00:03:05 And maybe it's merely because of what a trouncing it was that really you just can't lie about it.
00:03:12 But I've noticed that since the interview last night, Trump has begun to lie about it and claim election fraud.
00:03:19 But in the interview, he simply admitted that the Republicans lost for a variety of reasons.
00:03:25 Yeah. I mean, I saw those, you know, him backpedaling on the stolen election stuff,
00:03:29 which, you know, we don't have to spend a lot of time on. We'll talk about whatever you want,
00:03:33 but like it is so flatly preposterous that, you know, there's these Trump accounts. They're
00:03:40 talking about these voter shifts in Texas and how this is impossible. Oh, it's not impossible
00:03:46 because it actually happened. But second of all, it's what's impossible is the idea. This is
00:03:51 something I've had these arguments for so long. These people who want to claim that like ballots
00:03:56 were faked and all of these kinds of things. One of the great features of our system is how local
00:04:02 our elections are. And you can go into an election in your neighborhood and the ballot will be
00:04:08 different than one five minutes further up the road because you have a different dog catcher on
00:04:13 the ballot, you have a different superintendent for schools, you have a different, you know,
00:04:17 local, you know, commission for this, that, or the other thing on it. And the idea that you could
00:04:23 go to Kinko's and get these doctored ballots at literally tens of thousands of different locations
00:04:29 without anybody noticing, you know, is just so preposterous when you think about it. I remember
00:04:34 Roger Stone, who I think is, you know, a carbuncle, but he had this great thing where he said,
00:04:40 i know for a fact after the 2020 election that north korea has shipped shipped fake ballots that
00:04:47 they unloaded in maine yeah and then imagine the graphic design on those ballots yeah yeah like
00:04:53 because the north koreans really have a granular understanding of who ran for dog catcher in peoria 0.99
00:04:58 you know it's just all so stupid and but it's kind of it's not as surprising as i thought it 0.99
00:05:04 would be that he would eventually backslide into this because i think it's now dawning on him 1.00
00:05:08 how total the rebuke of him was. And that's one of the problems we've got with, we're in this
00:05:16 weird moment where it starts a few days before an election and it continues for about three weeks
00:05:22 after an election where partisan factions of all sorts want to put their stamp on the official
00:05:30 narrative about why so-and-so won or so-and-so lost and that kind of thing. And it's not just
00:05:36 democrats want to say it was this and republicans want to say it was that it's that the dsa wants
00:05:41 to say it was their very progressive agenda and the the normie moderate dems want to say no it's
00:05:46 like we returned to sanity and that's why we won these red states which i think there's a lot of
00:05:50 truth to that vance want which we'll get to i'm sure vance wants to say it was all about the iran
00:05:55 war and nothing else and the reason why everyone's scrambling so much so fast right now is because
00:06:02 pretty soon the narrative congeals and then there'll still be, you know, people who dispute
00:06:09 it, you know, and, and have their counter narratives, but the conventional wisdom becomes
00:06:14 kind of locked in, in terms of how reporters talk about it, how the parties mount a, either
00:06:22 for the Republicans, a comeback operation, you know, or how Democrats determine what,
00:06:28 you know, where the Overton window is for what they can get done.
00:06:31 And everybody kind of recognizes this and everybody wants to sort of, while the clay is still malleable, wants to get their thumbprints in it. And that's what we're seeing right now on just all across Washington.
00:06:42 Do you think there's any chance he's going to get traction with claims of election fraud?
00:06:47 Not really, in part because he's a lame duck and the various factions who are looking to
00:06:55 2028, they might do it as a lot of Republicans did as lip service to MAGA populists and that
00:07:03 kind of thing, but it'll get laughed out at courts.
00:07:07 Look, there might be legitimate legal stuff in Alaska and Mississippi because
00:07:11 the recount stuff is narrow and hard but this idea that there was sweeping voter fraud it can't go
00:07:18 anywhere in courts and it'll further brand the republican party as this extension of sort of
00:07:26 trump's narcissism and conspiracy stuff and i just think there are too many republicans who realize
00:07:32 there's no percentage for the for them in that now and also you know there's a lot of reporting
00:07:37 and from some people I've talked to as well is that, you know, Rupert Murdoch has zero desire
00:07:42 to go back down the Dominion lawsuit path. And they kind of think Trump is a, is a increasingly
00:07:49 spent force and passed his sell-by date. So the idea that it'll get traction in, I can't speak
00:07:54 for OAN or Newsbacks and those places, but the idea that it'll get major traction from Fox
00:07:59 is unlikely. And without that, you know, I just don't know how far it could go,
00:08:03 even if there was some superficial false, but superficially plausible rationale behind it.
00:08:09 So I think Trump may in, you know, as the West wing becomes a reenactment of a downfall video,
00:08:16 he may lean into it more and more, but I just don't think it'll have much purchase
00:08:21 where it would matter. Well, what percentage of Americans do you think fall into the just
00:08:28 irretrievable mega bitter ender camp i mean is there what do you have a sense of the people who
00:08:34 for whom there's literally nothing trump could do or that could be said about him or that could
00:08:39 happen as a result of his policies that would pry them loose from the cult i mean obviously when
00:08:46 we're talking about large numbers individual people are different and you know but as a as a
00:08:52 block i think it's the lion's share of what's left of his positive favorability rating right i mean
00:08:57 I think the, so that's what it was at 30%, 35%. It's in the low thirties, depending on the poll
00:09:02 that you're looking at, that kind of thing. And I, if I had to guess it's, you know, it's probably
00:09:08 28%, 26%. And I don't think all of those people, I don't think it's fair to say all those people
00:09:14 are, are the cultists. Some of them are just so polarized and anti and defensive about their
00:09:21 choices, right? And anti-left, anti-democrat, anti-mainstream media, anti-establishment and
00:09:29 all that kind of stuff, that they won't countenance the idea of saying they dislike Trump to a pollster
00:09:36 or something like that. But they're still out there for sure. There's just a half-life to it,
00:09:43 I think. So obviously these election results were in some sense overdetermined. I mean,
00:09:48 everyone can find their favorite reason why the Republicans lost so many seats. But I do worry
00:09:55 that some of the reasons why they lost were bad ones, or at least suggest something dysfunctional
00:10:02 in the future about our politics. For instance, if the war is the reason why Republicans lost,
00:10:10 I mean, if J.D. Vance is right there, if it's the war plus Israel's manipulation of the president 0.60
00:10:16 into the war, so the scheming Jews behind the war, that is depressing on at least two 0.95
00:10:21 counts. 0.99
00:10:21 I mean, obviously, the conspiracy theory and the anti-Semitism that you just need only
00:10:26 add water to to get a whole worldview that's diabolical, that's a problem.
00:10:30 But in my view, the Iran war, which we can talk about or not, is one of the only things
00:10:37 that, in addition to closing the border, that is rational that Trump attempted to do.
00:10:43 Now, he's done it with a level of incompetence that is astonishing even for him, right?
00:10:49 So it's been a disaster in its waging.
00:10:53 But the people who are against the war are not against Trump's ineptitude.
00:10:58 They're against the war in principle, right?
00:11:01 No new foreign wars.
00:11:02 I mean, they're isolationists.
00:11:03 They want us to retreat.
00:11:04 We shouldn't be the world's cop.
00:11:06 This war was always going to be wrong no matter how we waged it.
00:11:09 And I think that's a scary lesson to draw if that is the reason why. If, in fact, the right war, no matter how you wage it, is going to raise gas prices for a period, we're proving ourselves to be a nation that can't stomach that. I don't know if I'd feel free to react to that.
00:11:26 So, yeah, if you give me a second on this one, because I think you're absolutely right, but I think you're offering, I don't want to shock you, too rosy a scenario.
00:11:35 I'm rarely convicted of that, so I would love to hear that.
00:11:38 Yeah.
00:11:39 So the argument that Vance put out in his really disingenuous autopsy tweet, you know,
00:11:46 that 617 word thing, the logic of it and the logic of what people are now calling the Vance
00:11:51 guard, you know, the people who rallied to his Praetorians who rallied to his defense
00:11:55 and everything.
00:11:56 The argument they want to make is that people voted on an ideological basis against the
00:12:04 Iran war, that the original sin was doing it at all, right?
00:12:08 Now, I'm very much a critic of how Trump did it.
00:12:11 Yeah.
00:12:11 I think announcing in the middle of the night, wearing a baseball hat with no preparation,
00:12:16 no sell, no going to Congress, none of that stuff was incredibly inept.
00:12:20 And no allies.
00:12:21 I would argue.
00:12:21 Yeah.
00:12:22 No allies.
00:12:22 Yeah.
00:12:23 And without just utterly dismissing through his power of positive thinking, the idea that
00:12:27 they would close the Strait of Hormuz, something that is in every single war game and textbook
00:12:32 going back 40 years.
00:12:34 Yeah.
00:12:34 About what Iran would do if attacked. 0.97
00:12:36 and, and in part, we know that they would do it because they've done it before. Um, and, and they 0.99
00:12:41 said they'd do it. And so like, it was like, I don't think it'll happen. So the argument that
00:12:47 they want to make is that it's forever wars that are the problem. Right. And I'm against forever
00:12:53 wars, but I'm looking, I've been looking for a couple of days now to find someone who's making
00:12:59 that the robust argument, the Vancey and argument that it wasn't gas prices per se. It was the
00:13:05 initial decision to go to war that drove all of this, who didn't also full-throatedly endorse
00:13:12 the Venezuelan operation, right? So they're not against imperial adventures and regime change or
00:13:20 any of these kinds of things. They're against doing it because in their mind, they think if
00:13:25 you do it in the Middle East, it's for the benefit of Israel. And maybe because these
00:13:29 bagel-snarfing warmongers in Israel pulled his strings and made him do it. And that, I think, 0.91
00:13:37 is in many ways objectively an anti-Semitic argument. Not necessarily everybody who makes
00:13:43 it is full of Jew hatred, though some are, but that it says that it singles out Israel as a part
00:13:50 of our foreign policy as different from any other place. These people didn't mind Trump threatening
00:13:55 to use forests to take Greenland. These people didn't mind Trump trying to bully Canada into
00:14:00 becoming a state. They celebrated the whole take the oil initiative in Venezuela and all of the
00:14:06 lying and illegal pretexts that went into that. But when Trump goes into Iran, suddenly they become
00:14:14 these principled isolationists. They forget all of their Don Roe doctrine bullshit and everything 0.98
00:14:20 else that they said, and they embrace this sort of veneer of ideological and intellectual 0.92
00:14:26 consistency, but they only apply it when it comes to things that they think fit this narrative
00:14:31 of Israel running our elections or running our government and that kind of thing. And so I don't
00:14:37 credit them for that argument, right? Because it's not a consistently held argument. And part
00:14:44 of my problem is you'll hear people argue, including my friend Michael Brennan-Doherty
00:14:48 at National Review, that it is unfair to say the American people were voting against higher gas
00:14:55 prices and not against this Middle Eastern war, because the whole point, and I think this is an
00:15:02 intellectually serviceable argument, the serious people, like Michael, would argue, well, the
00:15:08 unintended consequences, the blowback of going to war in the Middle East has to be part of the
00:15:12 equation and you can't separate the consequences from the initial bad decision. Okay. Well, then
00:15:19 how do you reconcile the fact that Donald Trump has been quite explicit that his intent was to
00:15:26 replicate the Venezuela model? He called it the Venezuela model. He wanted to do Venezuela with
00:15:32 Iran. And these people who warn about blowback and unintended consequences and all that kind of
00:15:38 stuff cannot countenance the fact that one of the unintended consequences of the, you
00:15:43 know, arguable success, I have some problems calling it, I think it's a little premature
00:15:46 to call Venezuela a success, but as a military operation, it clearly was that one of the
00:15:52 unintended consequences of that was that Donald Trump would take away from it the lesson that
00:15:57 wars are easy and no one criticized him or Hegseth or any of these people when he did
00:16:03 Venezuela. So Trump said, well, I did it once. I can do it again. And it turns out that Iran is a
00:16:10 very different country than Venezuela and all the other things that we all know about, you know,
00:16:13 the difficulty of doing it apply. But the simple fact is, is that at the end of the day,
00:16:19 there's no data that whatever Vance's alleged great pollsters and all this kind of stuff that
00:16:24 he says he consulted in that thing. No, you know, Omicron 5000 supercomputers spit out the results
00:16:31 that he claims were spit out about how it was, you know, four issues would bring back
00:16:35 all of these wayward Trump voters and it's Iran, put America first, whatever he thinks
00:16:41 that means, affordability and economics and recalibrate with Israel. 0.62
00:16:46 It's really just two things, right? 0.69
00:16:47 Because the Iran and the Israel thing are basically two sides of the same coin in his
00:16:50 mind.
00:16:50 And recall, Trump had argued, not Trump, Vance had argued that the, the memorandum of
00:16:56 understanding fell apart because of a foreign interference operation by the Israelis in
00:17:02 America, when in fact, and they actually kind of leaked that in this weird TikTok that they did in
00:17:09 the New York Times about the lead up to the midterms, where they blamed it on hawks like
00:17:15 Ted Cruz and other supporters of the war. They insinuated in this sort of as told to by Vance
00:17:22 version of events that their pressure caused the the war to reignite which is just a lie
00:17:28 the war reignited because the iranians didn't observe the rules of the mou and started hostilities 0.91
00:17:33 again because it was a dumb mou to begin with that tr that vance claims brought peace in our time 0.64
00:17:39 and it didn't and so i just and also and his whole the last thing on the vance thing he says 0.91
00:17:45 at the beginning of it that the issue about why they lost was because former trump voters it's
00:17:51 not that the 2024 MAGA voters didn't show up in 2026 in his telling. It's that too many of them
00:17:59 voted for the Democrats. There's very little data to support that. Maybe 7% of Trump voters from
00:18:06 2024, according to the Fox exits, according to the Nork stuff, according to a bunch of different
00:18:11 sources, say only about 7% of the Trump 2024 voters switched to vote for Democrats in this
00:18:19 election. The real source of the Democrats' win last week was massive Democratic turnout. A lot
00:18:26 of people who stayed home and didn't vote for Harris really turned out. And independence broke
00:18:33 in ungodly numbers against Trump. And meanwhile, if you look at the exit polls, basically 80%,
00:18:41 77% say that our relationship with Israel is about right or should be stronger. And Vance's
00:18:49 argument, which I think is just a really dumb argument, is that the Republican party needs to
00:18:54 recalibrate everything to win back this alleged 7% of voters while insulting the nearly 80% of 0.54
00:19:02 voters who disagree with them about Israel. Now, I don't think, just to be a last point,
00:19:07 voters in America almost never vote on foreign policy. The idea that many people, whether they
00:19:13 like Israel or dislike Israel, voted that that was their main motivation, or even the Iran war
00:19:19 as a matter of foreign policy debates, that that was what was driving them is just nonsense.
00:19:25 I'm sure there were some, and I'm sure a lot of them were Democrats to begin with who would never
00:19:30 vote for Trump. But the simple fact is, is that the consequences of the war, high gas prices,
00:19:35 combined with high tariffs, right?
00:19:37 And the Vance people are putting out these charts
00:19:38 all over the place to show that Trump's favorability
00:19:41 declines starting with the Iran war.
00:19:44 And they take the chart and they basically airbrush out
00:19:48 that if you just move the timeline back,
00:19:51 his decline actually starts with the Liberation Day tariffs.
00:19:55 And it's accelerated by the Iran war
00:19:58 and then it's accelerated by the high prices 0.98
00:19:59 caused by the inept and incompetent conduct 0.89
00:20:02 of the Iran war.
00:20:03 Jonah, doesn't a lot of the polling suggest that corruption was also high on the list of
00:20:08 people's concerns? Huge. And let us say, so the Vance autopsy does not mention the word corruption
00:20:15 at all. And Vance, let no one forget, is the Trump administration's official anti-corruption czar.
00:20:24 I missed that somehow. He fired all the inspectors general, but he put Vance in charge of routing
00:20:31 out corruption in the government and that was because what what they meant by that was looking
00:20:35 at corruption in minnesota and the somali stuff and all that which i think there is a lot of
00:20:39 corruption there but he doesn't care about he doesn't talk about the corruption his biggest
00:20:44 mentor is don jr who you know had a russian oligarch paper his wedding you know and it is
00:20:50 all in on the crypto stuff and so the fox poll says and again it's a fox poll right which should
00:20:57 have some credibility in Megaland, says 50, I think it's 55% said it was a crucial issue
00:21:06 in why they voted. And an additional 35%, it gets to 90% said it was either a major or crucial issue
00:21:14 for why they voted. And they just, he just airbrushes that out too. I mean, and so that's,
00:21:20 this is what I'm getting at about the conventional wisdom formation stuff. It's so important because
00:21:24 If we come out of this with the Republican Party taking away this idea that defenestrating Israel,
00:21:30 turning our back also on Ukraine, because that's embedded in a lot of this stuff,
00:21:34 is the reason for the lost election, then you're committing the Republican Party to that path
00:21:42 going forward. And there's just an enormous number of the sort of new right MAGA intellectual types
00:21:48 who are pushing extremely hard on that narrative. And they're memory-holing the fact that Kevin
00:21:55 Roberts of the Heritage Foundation and lots of other people celebrated the war when it started.
00:21:59 And now they just want to say, oh, it's just those perfidious neocons who did this. And there
00:22:04 are no neocons in this administration. And so it's an attempt at myth-making for the benefit
00:22:10 of Vance and the sort of Tucker Carlson wing of the right. 0.62
00:22:15 Well, it seems that both parties are drawing the lesson that the U.S. needs a reset with Israel, right? I mean, like the Democrats and the Republicans have drawn this lesson and don't, I mean, how do you map that onto the poll you just cited? What was it, 80% of Americans think?
00:22:33 80% of Republicans.
00:22:34 80% of Republicans. Okay. So it's got to be quite different among Democrats, I would imagine.
00:22:38 Yeah. I don't know what the numbers of Democrats, but I'm sure it's different.
00:22:40 Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, I mean, if even if the Republicans are poised, well, maybe maybe maybe these vapors will dissipate and the Republicans will not be making these noises about Israel as we go into the 2028 campaign.
00:22:54 It'll just be the Democrats. Let's talk about both the Republicans and the Democrats here and the lessons they can plausibly draw.
00:23:01 Let's start with the Republicans.
00:23:03 What did these results do to J.D. Vance's prospects in 2028?
00:23:08 Is he one of the main casualties of this, do you think? 0.98
00:23:11 He's definitely a loser in this.
00:23:12 There's no way you can talk about him being a winner, except in one scenario, which is 0.95
00:23:17 that if Republicans concluded that no Republican can win in 2028, then it's, you know, was
00:23:27 it the Napoleon line?
00:23:28 I found the crown in the gutter and I put it on.
00:23:30 You know, like it'll be, it'll be his for the taking because no one else wants it.
00:23:35 So, uh, drill down on that a little bit.
00:23:37 So, because it's kind of counterintuitive, you think that it may look, 2028 may look
00:23:41 so inauspicious for Republicans given this sweep that Rubio and, um, anyone else who
00:23:49 DeSantis, Cruz, you know, all that.
00:23:51 Yeah.
00:23:51 Well, I mean, we'll talk about DeSantis in a second, I guess, because he's, he is in
00:23:55 a different orbit, but if it just looks like pure doom for whoever that Republican
00:24:00 candidate will be, then J.D. Vance might just find that he's just got an open lane to the
00:24:07 coronation. Yeah. And again, I don't think that's likely. I'm just saying it's not a scenario you
00:24:13 can entirely rule out. I mean, it certainly, everyone I know who follows this stuff thinks
00:24:18 Cruz is definitely running. Chris Christie is making noises that he's going to run. DeSantis
00:24:23 certainly seems like he's going to run. Well, DeSantis can plausibly say that he wasn't part
00:24:29 of any of this debacle. And he's always kept a critical distance conveniently on certainly this
00:24:36 incarnation of MAGA in the second term. So he's squeaky clean as a candidate, isn't he?
00:24:45 Yeah. It's a little ironic. He and Vance have seemed to have very similar, not exact
00:24:52 theories of the case that they both seem to think that the GOP has been permanently MAGA-fied
00:25:00 and that what people want is competent MAGA, right? They want fewer mean tweets, less stuff,
00:25:08 less corruption. For Vance, his theory seems to be he's the vessel for Trumpism with twice the
00:25:15 bigotry and half the charm, right? And he thinks he can just sort of fake that by being obnoxious
00:25:24 and pugilistic, that's what people liked in Trump. So they'll like it in him too.
00:25:29 And he'll double down on the tariff stuff and the anti-forever war interpretation of
00:25:36 what MAGA was, but MAGA wasn't that. MAGA at the end of the day was a cult of personality
00:25:42 about Trump himself. And the idea, I'm pretty sure I said this last time I was on here or the
00:25:49 time before, in 2016, something the pundits, including me, we all got wrong. It was a cliche
00:25:54 to say it. It's a cliche for pundits generally is to say, oh, Donald Trump's not immune to the
00:26:01 laws of political gravity and he'll come down eventually. And we said it throughout the
00:26:04 primaries after one weird gap, attacking gold star moms, attacking John McCain, right? He's like,
00:26:10 this won't last, he can't sustain this. And what we all missed was that he is immune to the laws
00:26:16 of political gravity, or at least was, because he is a subject of the laws of entertainment gravity.
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00:26:30 What bothers me in some ways more about the anti-Semitism on the right is that, well,
00:26:36 First of all, I spent my entire life, you know,
00:26:39 as a conservative trying to defend conservatism.
00:26:41 J.D. Vance will not condemn Tucker.
00:26:44 He won't really condemn people
00:26:46 who are hurling racist slurs at his own wife.
00:26:48 That is very depressing to me.