Making Sense - Sam Harris - December 27, 2016


#58 — The Putin Question


Episode Stats

Length

41 minutes

Words per Minute

169.52158

Word Count

7,010

Sentence Count

317

Hate Speech Sentences

11


Summary

Gary Kasparov is a former world chess champion and now a great critic of Vladimir Putin s Russia. He has also written a book, Winter is Coming, arguing that we are in need of a new Cold War strategy to deal with the threat from Vladimir Putin and his current Russia. In this episode of the Making Sense Podcast, I talk to Gary about his new book, and how we can prepare for the coming Cold War. I also talk about his views on the rise of artificial intelligence and climate change, and why we should be worried about it. This is a very timely conversation, given the man who will soon occupy the Oval Office, and given the people he has appointed to advise him, and the choices he has chosen to advise Donald Trump, and his team, and what they are planning to do in response to them. We don t run ads on the podcast, and therefore, therefore, it s made possible entirely through the support of our subscribers, who are making the podcast possible. If you enjoy what we re doing here, please consider becoming a supporter of what we're doing here by becoming a subscriber. You'll get access to all sorts of great shows, including The New York Times besties, The New Yorker, The Huffington Post, and The New Republic, wherever you get your news and opinions are available. Thanks for listening to the podcast. Make sense of it! Sam Harris - Making Sense: A podcast about things you can t live without making sense, and more! - by becoming one of our listeners get a discount on our premium memberships, and get 20% off the purchase of our newest issue of Making Sense. Subscribe to our newest podcast, The Making Sense to get 10% off of our next month's newest issue, "Winter is Coming." and much more! Subscribe to Making Sense, wherever else you get a copy of the podcast is available, including the podcast? Subscribe on Audible, Podchaser, PODCAST, and other perks, including epsiode of our new podcasting service. . Learn more about your ad choices? Subscribe & subscribe to our podcasting choices, too! Subscribe for more like this podcasting experience? and more like it on Apple Podcasts, and subscribe on iTunes, too check it out on your favorite podcatcher, and a chance to win a discount of $5 or more?


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.
00:00:08.820 This is Sam Harris.
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00:00:46.680 I am talking with Gary Kasparov, the former world chess champion, perhaps the most famous
00:00:53.960 of modern times, and now a great critic of Vladimir Putin's Russia, and a great critic
00:01:01.140 of the failures of American and European foreign policy with respect to Russia.
00:01:07.320 Needless to say, this is a very timely conversation, given the man who will soon occupy the Oval Office
00:01:14.360 and given the people he has appointed to advise him.
00:01:17.780 And so without further preamble, I give you Gary Kasparov.
00:01:28.760 I am here with Gary Kasparov.
00:01:31.080 Gary, thanks for coming on the podcast.
00:01:33.000 Thanks for inviting me.
00:01:34.200 Listen, it's really an honor to get to talk to you.
00:01:36.260 I'm sorry we can't do it in person, but we'll be forgiven any audio hiccups here.
00:01:40.040 We're doing this by Skype, and you are half a world away.
00:01:43.080 And it's late at night over there.
00:01:44.420 So again, thank you for taking the time to do this.
00:01:47.340 Okay, thanks for more technology that we can do it, you know, staying a thousand miles away
00:01:53.040 from each other.
00:01:53.720 Yeah, there's a lot to talk about.
00:01:55.700 There are really two broad areas that I want to touch with you.
00:01:59.100 The first I want to get into is politics, obviously, and the recent Russian influence
00:02:03.900 on our presidential election.
00:02:05.720 The second is that we have to say something about the future of intelligent machines, because
00:02:10.960 I've been talking a lot about artificial intelligence on the podcast, and while you will go down
00:02:16.780 in history for many things, one of those things will be that you are the first person to be
00:02:22.660 beaten by a machine in an intellectual pursuit where you were the most advanced member of
00:02:27.860 our species.
00:02:28.840 You will have a special place in history, even if that history is written by our robot overlords.
00:02:33.680 We have to talk about that, but we will get into politics first.
00:02:38.220 And you've written a fascinating book entitled Winter is Coming.
00:02:42.660 You argue several things in the book, but generally, you claim that free and open societies
00:02:49.520 like our own have grown weaker, especially because we no longer think in terms of spreading
00:02:55.300 our values to the rest of the world.
00:02:57.300 Many people consider this a return to some kind of humility and political realism, but
00:03:02.700 you consider it a failure of nerve, and I must say I agree with you there.
00:03:08.000 Your specific claim is that while we're now facing many threats, and many which we seem
00:03:13.860 ill-prepared to deal with, the worst of these threats is coming from Vladimir Putin and his
00:03:19.240 current Russia.
00:03:20.660 So perhaps you can just start there with your political thesis.
00:03:23.980 Yes, let's start with the title of the book, Winter is Coming.
00:03:27.760 I have to confess, I'm a fan of Game of Thrones, and I even read all the books.
00:03:32.540 And I thought the title was very appropriate because it could indicate two things.
00:03:36.040 One is that the history is not developed on a linear basis, and it was somehow a delayed
00:03:43.280 response to Francis Fukuyama, The End of History in 1992, the best-selling book.
00:03:48.760 And I have to admit that in 1992, I shared the same optimism, thinking that liberal democracies
00:03:53.700 have won, and the rest would be just a bright future.
00:03:57.500 So it's all up to us to build this future, and the evil has been defeated once and for
00:04:04.600 all.
00:04:05.380 So I think we get to recognize that the evil doesn't disappear.
00:04:10.280 So it probably happens in the books, in fairy tales, but in real life, the evil could be buried
00:04:15.340 temporarily under the rubble of the Berlin Wall.
00:04:17.420 But, you know, at one point it sprouts out, especially if we lose our vigilance and if
00:04:22.920 we turn to be complacent.
00:04:24.940 And also the idea of the title was, again, reflecting the motto of the House of Stark in Game of Thrones
00:04:32.500 is to indicate that this is not a winter, this is not a climate change, this is not this change
00:04:37.240 of temperature.
00:04:38.240 But this is something that happens, again, because we are grown weaker, because we don't
00:04:42.940 understand the threat that is coming to hurt us and maybe to destroy our way of life.
00:04:50.160 But it depends on us whether this winter is long or short, whether it's, you know, devastating
00:04:55.500 or the effect is minimal.
00:04:57.840 So it's like a warning.
00:05:00.000 So that's why I thought the title would be appropriate.
00:05:02.160 And, you know, to my surprise, and I publish a few books, and Sam, I'm sure you know, the publishers,
00:05:07.040 they always come up with 10 different suggestions, trying to shoot away your original title.
00:05:15.200 I mean, this time they accepted the title, you know, recognizing that, you know, it had
00:05:18.760 merits.
00:05:19.780 But they were very cautious and almost rejected the subtitle.
00:05:24.500 They said, oh, Vladimir Putin and the enemies of the free world.
00:05:28.680 Is it about a cold war?
00:05:30.540 Is this just, you know, old language that may, you know, scare people off?
00:05:34.040 I said, yeah, it's a cold war because winter is coming.
00:05:36.880 And now when I talk to my publisher, they're very happy that they actually agreed to have
00:05:41.220 Vladimir Putin and enemies of the free world.
00:05:43.100 I can imagine.
00:05:44.080 On the title of the book.
00:05:45.640 Because when they ask me, so what about the, you know, what about advertising?
00:05:49.160 How are you going to do it?
00:05:49.940 Because it was really, you know, just, you know, a very short cycle for writing and publishing.
00:05:54.920 We, me and Meg Gringart, my co-author, so we approached them in January 2015.
00:06:00.680 And I said, I said at our first meeting that I would like the book to be published in October.
00:06:07.100 They asked me whether I meant October 2016.
00:06:09.860 I said, no, 2015, because I hoped that the book would make difference for, for upcoming
00:06:16.440 presidential elections.
00:06:17.320 And it could, you know, help to shape debates of foreign policy between two, between candidates
00:06:22.200 from the major parties.
00:06:23.160 So, and they were not sure that you can do it because I said, oh, you know, we have,
00:06:27.740 there's no time for advertising.
00:06:29.280 And I said, look, as long as you have Putin as a centerpiece of the book, he will definitely
00:06:34.000 create enough, you know, conflicts, you know, to make sure that the book will be always,
00:06:37.440 you know, on the front page.
00:06:40.620 Again, unfortunately, this prediction was right.
00:06:43.440 And I have to say that, you know, things that I predicted in the book, you know, they turn
00:06:48.400 to be even worse than I thought, because probably we live in a time when, you know, everything
00:06:54.160 happens much quicker.
00:06:55.660 So the time flies faster than it used to be.
00:06:58.680 I would just want to stop you there, Gary, for a second, because I want to get into Putin
00:07:02.040 specifically in some depth.
00:07:03.820 But you use this term evil, which I want to flag for a moment, because unfortunately,
00:07:10.380 this term has been really undermined in intelligent conversation.
00:07:17.380 Many people just don't believe in evil.
00:07:19.780 Sam, that's a great point, you know.
00:07:21.500 Thank you very much for actually raising this point, because, you know, if we are looking,
00:07:25.960 if we are now looking at the American politics, you know, the partisanship, it reached such
00:07:31.200 a level where, you know, people from two major parties consider their opponents evil.
00:07:37.060 So, and you're right, you know, the word evil, you know, has been used and overused in
00:07:41.840 the political debates between people who, you know, who disagree on many issues, but still
00:07:46.660 share the same core values, you know.
00:07:49.840 They all, you know, represent different, you know, wings of liberal democracy.
00:07:54.240 And what I wanted to emphasize in the book, and again, thanks for raising this point,
00:07:57.620 is that, you know, we are being attacked by people that are, again, let me use this old
00:08:06.260 cliche, old word cliche, the enemies of the free world, because they did not share the
00:08:10.740 same values.
00:08:11.600 And one of the fundamental differences between us and them is we believe, you know, in the
00:08:16.320 uniqueness of human life.
00:08:18.680 So the one person dead, you know, it's tragedy.
00:08:21.760 For people like Putin, you know, hundreds of thousands dead is just, you know, it's a
00:08:27.000 demonstration of strengths.
00:08:28.160 It's just statistics that proves that, you know, they are on the winning streak by, you
00:08:33.060 know, by spreading their influence.
00:08:35.520 So we have to realize that, you know, you know, despite all the differences between, you
00:08:40.940 know, different political groups and activists in the free world, we're still united by values
00:08:45.760 by values that makes us very different from the other side of the world, where, you know,
00:08:51.560 I could apply world evil, because it really threatens the way of life, you know, the very
00:08:58.500 foundation of the free society.
00:09:01.000 And value of human life is one of the things that brings together Putin, ISIS, Al-Qaeda,
00:09:07.340 Iranian moolahs.
00:09:08.460 They could look different.
00:09:09.420 But at the end of the day, you know, they believe in something that is, you know, is
00:09:15.220 not modern, something that, you know, that, you know, brings us, pushes us back to the
00:09:19.760 past.
00:09:20.680 And it's for those who are saying, oh, unlike Soviet Union, Putin's Russia is no longer an
00:09:26.320 existential threat to the free world because it doesn't have the same ideology.
00:09:30.300 My response is that probably you're right, but the Soviet project, though it was, you know,
00:09:35.340 condemned by history, it was, you know, marked by repressions, by bloodshed, by devaluation
00:09:43.680 of human life.
00:09:48.080 It was still a project about the future.
00:09:50.360 It was a futuristic project, you know, based on wrong assumptions about human nature.
00:09:56.740 That's why it failed.
00:09:57.720 But it was still about the future.
00:09:59.140 Well, today we're dealing with threats that all are looking for ideal society in a distant
00:10:05.020 past.
00:10:06.260 So Putin looks for a 19th century imperial politics, Iranian moolahs for, you know, medieval
00:10:10.640 religious inquisition.
00:10:14.900 And ISIS, of course, goes all the way back to the early caliphate.
00:10:18.000 But it's all about something that, you know, just that has no connection to the modernity.
00:10:23.620 And so that's why we could say that today we see the fight, you know, between modernity
00:10:27.960 and archaic forces.
00:10:31.300 And somehow even, you know, the last US elections was also about, you know, about a desperate
00:10:39.720 attempt to look for an ideal model of the past.
00:10:43.860 So, yeah, and that's why, again, I think it's, it's, it's, I thought it would be very important
00:10:50.420 to have the book on time for, for a proper debate about US policy since, you know, foreign
00:10:57.160 policy since, whether we like it or not, United States as a leader of the free world, you know,
00:11:02.120 defines the way the free world moves, you know, one way or another.
00:11:06.440 And unfortunately, you know, this election was about, you know, throwing mud at each
00:11:12.500 other, rather than talking about serious issues.
00:11:15.380 And I was quite disappointed.
00:11:17.840 But still, you know, it's probably now it's now while we're digesting the surprising results
00:11:24.140 of these elections, we will have time to think about the sort of the the potential impact
00:11:30.120 of all these important foreign policy issues to to the life in the United States, especially
00:11:37.600 because it became quite apparent that Putin's influence on the elections, even if it was
00:11:43.960 not decisive, it was still a considerable factor that that helped to tilt the election to the
00:11:50.340 to the Trump side.
00:11:51.220 Yeah, yeah.
00:11:52.140 Well, so before we get into Putin and the election, you've just raised this generic problem we have
00:11:57.840 with dictators, dictators with regimes that fundamentally don't share our values.
00:12:03.780 Just generically speaking, how do you think we should deal with this problem?
00:12:07.980 It is another paradox of of modern times is that unlike 50 or 100 years ago, dictators,
00:12:17.060 they have almost, you know, equal access to modern technologies.
00:12:21.060 So the technological advantage was always, you know, an important factor of of the superiority
00:12:28.320 of the free world, because, you know, we know that the free society always could mobilize,
00:12:34.820 you know, brains and intellectual resources to come up with new ideas, new industries, new
00:12:40.440 technologies and always to be to be ahead.
00:12:42.720 Even Soviet Union, you know, eventually lost the space race, though it was, you know, it
00:12:49.820 was not Putin's Russia.
00:12:51.100 It was, you know, the country that that relied on on resources of Russian empire.
00:12:56.440 So the generations of scientists and it's it was well advanced.
00:13:01.140 So it's it was quite a unique experiment or failed experiment.
00:13:05.040 And it it managed to put, you know, Sputnik and the man in space even ahead of the Americans.
00:13:10.220 But eventually, you know, it it lost this race because closed societies, they cannot compete.
00:13:17.560 Even the Soviet Union failed to compete with the United States in in in the technological race.
00:13:23.560 But today, you know, things are different because the globalization, you know, as every every
00:13:30.700 new technology, every new technological process has to to two sides, like every coin on one side,
00:13:38.320 you know, we can spread things around, you know, we can do business, we can socialize,
00:13:42.720 we can connect people.
00:13:44.360 Many good things can happen by using this modern device, which is in everybody's pocket or a purse.
00:13:49.460 But at the same time, you know, it helps bad guys to to advance their cause.
00:13:54.200 So you can socialize on, you know, on the net, but you can also build a very sophisticated terrorist network.
00:14:01.220 And it does, you know, it's it.
00:14:02.640 And dictators, as we can see now, they they feel very comfortable with these modern devices because,
00:14:09.120 you know, the Internet is not yet regulated.
00:14:11.520 It's something that is, you know, it's is yet to be to become part of international law.
00:14:16.240 You know, and bad guys, they don't pay attention to any rules or limitations so that they have
00:14:23.040 by by definition, they have an upper hand in something so new and so advanced and getting
00:14:28.740 access to this is is is as easy, you know, as as buying, you know, food in the store.
00:14:34.660 So it's quite a quite a paradox that while we relied on on Twitter, Facebook, Google and
00:14:45.620 all these, you know, new brilliant technologies invented in the free world to promote the ideas
00:14:51.280 of the free world, we are now seeing the opposite effect that the dictators, the totalitarian regimes,
00:14:58.600 they are successfully using these tools, very sophisticated tools for propaganda to actually
00:15:04.360 promote ideas that are that are very that are opposite to to to to our values, actually
00:15:10.920 not even ideas, but more likely fake news.
00:15:13.260 It's more like poisoning minds of people because it's almost impossible to identify what's true
00:15:19.780 and was not since you are receiving so much information.
00:15:22.720 And well-organized forces, you know, supported by by massive budgets as as, you know, Putin's
00:15:30.960 Russia.
00:15:31.460 So the propaganda machine, you know, could have a could have a deadly effect not only in
00:15:37.300 Russia, not only in the Russian speaking people around the world, but also to on the minds
00:15:42.020 of people in a free world.
00:15:44.280 And this is a paradox that we have to we have to understand and just to, you know, to recognize
00:15:48.860 that it's it's it's a new challenge and the free world was not ready for it.
00:15:53.220 Hmm.
00:15:53.660 Yeah.
00:15:54.660 Well, one point you make in your book in several places is that we have pursued a path of engagement
00:16:00.540 with with Putin in particular, but with respect to many regimes that are fundamentally illiberal
00:16:07.960 on the assumption that mere engagement, mere economic and social integration will moderate
00:16:15.940 these regimes and get them to align with our interests and with the interests of sane and decent
00:16:21.700 people everywhere.
00:16:23.020 And you then observe how foolish this has proved to be.
00:16:28.680 And it's pretty clear that some people only understand strength.
00:16:33.180 And this goes back to this issue of evil, because many people have lost sight of the
00:16:36.720 fact that there are people, you know, whether it's individual dictators or even whole cultures
00:16:42.360 or subcultures, certainly, who are committed to very different aims in life.
00:16:47.520 I mean, there are people who are malignantly selfish or just delusional.
00:16:51.960 There are whole cultures that can be organized around delusional ideals.
00:16:56.760 And I think what we're witnessing on our side, especially in recent years under Obama,
00:17:02.900 and I say this as someone who's a real fan of Obama, I mean, I think he's an extremely
00:17:08.520 smart and ethical and thoughtful person.
00:17:10.740 And the contrast to the incoming president here is just appalling to me.
00:17:14.900 But his foreign policy has been so anemic, it seems that our enemies no longer fear us
00:17:21.080 and our friends really can't rely on us.
00:17:23.880 And yet it's easy to see how we got here, because there's this perception of just this
00:17:27.620 absolute futility of foreign interventions because of what happened in Afghanistan and
00:17:32.600 Iraq.
00:17:33.040 And those are, you know, very different wars, as you know, one was probably necessary and
00:17:37.100 one almost certainly wasn't.
00:17:38.520 But they're both viewed as total failures.
00:17:41.640 And there's this, I think, an agreement, certainly on the left and now even on, you know, what's
00:17:47.900 now called the alternative right, that a sophisticated and realistic vision of America's place in the
00:17:54.400 world is one where we should be more isolated, more humble, more, I mean, just any notion
00:18:00.480 of us really leading the world and trying to spread our values all the way across it is
00:18:06.100 some kind of unethical claim upon empire.
00:18:09.660 It seems to me that we have lost our sense that there really are right answers to questions
00:18:15.440 of good and evil.
00:18:16.580 There really is such a thing, potentially at least, as universal human values that we have
00:18:22.300 to fight for.
00:18:22.940 Now, let's start with this, you know, with your analysis about, you know, American intervention
00:18:28.040 or isolationism as an alternative.
00:18:31.100 Look, it's the 21st century.
00:18:32.920 We are just about entering the year 2017.
00:18:36.440 The globalized world is reality.
00:18:40.140 Globalized trade is reality.
00:18:41.660 No matter what President-elect says about trade and his threats to sort of to turn it around
00:18:52.600 and just, you know, to go back to, you know, to protectionism, I don't believe it's going
00:18:57.980 to happen because America is the most globalized economy.
00:19:02.300 And when you look at the United States as a country with 330 million people, the country
00:19:08.380 benefits from global trade.
00:19:09.900 Yes, you know, global trade as an average trade, as a capitalism, some people win, some lose.
00:19:15.420 But clearly, you know, when you look at the balance, you know, more people, you know, are
00:19:19.660 on the on the on the beneficiary side.
00:19:21.460 So you have to think about sort of softening the blow to others, but trying to change things,
00:19:26.000 you know, and to say, oh, now we can go back.
00:19:28.120 You know, we can, you know, back.
00:19:29.680 This is this is exactly what I said, you know, when I talked about, you know, different societies
00:19:33.800 looking for for the ideals that that are distant past.
00:19:37.340 So America 2017 should look in 2030, 2040, 2050, not in not to 1950, 1960.
00:19:45.180 Those certain things, you know, I would I wish country could recover from from from those
00:19:50.300 decades and trying to hide in a shell, you know, ignore the fact that I mean, someone has
00:19:56.820 to lead, you know, if you create vacuum and this is this is the biggest lesson of Obama's
00:20:01.860 presidency, you know, he meant well, he wanted to reach out to American enemies.
00:20:07.620 And he just, you know, he did absolutely utmost to remove America, what he thought, you know,
00:20:13.040 was no negative American influence in politics, trying to sort of to work through agreements,
00:20:20.500 compromises.
00:20:21.760 Yeah, it's it could be great if he had at the other side of the bargaining table.
00:20:26.820 People, institutions, states that shared even 50 percent of his conviction about about the
00:20:36.180 world, the the our world should function.
00:20:39.620 Unfortunately, it was not the case.
00:20:41.920 So for Putin and the like Obama's what they saw a flexibility and weakness was an open invitation
00:20:49.480 to spread their influence.
00:20:50.600 America was on retreat, thus creating vacuum.
00:20:54.840 And this vacuum was filled, not by force of peace and prosperity, but by forces of of war
00:21:01.040 and hatred.
00:21:02.940 And again, there's no simple answer, you know, for, you know, for America's role in the world.
00:21:09.740 You know, you you separate wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
00:21:12.420 Like, you know, my problem with the war in Iraq, you know, in 2003 was that, you know, as someone
00:21:18.560 who was born and raised in a communist country, I could never blame, could never condemn invasion,
00:21:24.520 even invasion that led to a to to to a demise of dictatorship.
00:21:28.420 You know, and it's, you know, people like me, we viewed, you know, the invasion as a liberation.
00:21:35.040 I understand, you know, it's it's it's it's it could open, you know, Pandora box.
00:21:38.700 We can have a big debate about it.
00:21:40.240 But this is also important for people in the United States to understand the views of those
00:21:44.080 who were born on the other side of our court.
00:21:45.540 Well, you know, anything that led to the collapse of dictatorship was a good idea.
00:21:50.120 So that's why, you know, we we had different views about American presidents, you know,
00:21:55.360 viewing those who were strongest in opposing Soviet Union and and communism as our best
00:22:01.200 friends.
00:22:01.520 Again, I understand, you know, it's a subject for debate, but let's, you know, move away
00:22:06.920 from 2003 and agreeing that, you know, we may disagree on that and go to 2009.
00:22:12.240 And this is, you know, something that Obama's decision, you know, to follow, by the way,
00:22:17.160 that was Bush's plan, you know, to to eventually move troops out of Iraq.
00:22:23.000 So when in 2009, Obama looked at the global map, you know, I believe he thought that it
00:22:27.740 was a good moment for America to exercise positive influence, soft power, you know, friendship
00:22:34.180 to even to to the to the nations that that that that wish America ill and to, you know,
00:22:40.400 extend the olive branch to to everyone, you know, including Cuba, North Korea.
00:22:46.320 Now, the failure, in my view, is based on the fact that if you play the game, you know,
00:22:51.140 chess and if you believe that you made a mistake a few moves ago, the biggest mistake,
00:22:55.460 you know, would be to try to sort of to go back and to change things because you're already
00:23:00.480 having a certain situation at the board.
00:23:02.520 And that's what happened with with with Iraq in 2009, when Obama tried to sort of to rectify
00:23:09.060 mistakes made by the previous administration without recognizing that it's already a new
00:23:13.320 game.
00:23:14.240 America was already there.
00:23:15.620 And, you know, and and by trying to get out, you know, led to what what what what we are
00:23:22.860 seeing is seeing these days in the in the Middle East.
00:23:26.400 You know, we all know where the road paved with good intentions leads.
00:23:30.160 In this case, it led to Aleppo genocide.
00:23:33.360 So it is very important that we learn from these lessons because, you know, it's now what
00:23:39.240 follows Obama is is is is much more cynical approach.
00:23:42.960 So if Obama Obama wanted to to cut these deals, you know, out of his ideological beliefs that
00:23:49.240 the world should change.
00:23:50.440 Now you may have administration that would like to cut these deals, you know, out of very
00:23:54.300 pragmatic assumptions that, you know, that could benefit people who are close to the administration.
00:24:00.780 So ironically, they could be pursuing the same goals, but for very different purposes.
00:24:06.460 And I think that, you know, America, as long as, you know, it remains the most powerful economy
00:24:15.160 and the most powerful military force in the world.
00:24:17.480 And it's it's due to to remain the leader of the free world.
00:24:22.080 That's, you know, carrying these responsibilities for for protecting the world order from different
00:24:29.540 attempts to to destroy it.
00:24:31.080 Because if America doesn't do anything, then what's going to happen to NATO?
00:24:35.460 What's going to happen to European security?
00:24:37.900 And now we already saw the result in Crimea and definitely Putin is not going to stop in
00:24:42.960 Crimea.
00:24:43.220 And he's now, you know, willing to willing to to have, you know, a great bargain with Trump
00:24:50.920 about about dividing the world and and eliminating all security institutions that that were standing
00:24:59.060 on his way to global dominance.
00:25:00.900 So I think it's very important that America, you know, recovers its, you know, its its integrity
00:25:07.900 as the as a global power and will come up with a view of the foreign policy, which is, by
00:25:14.140 the way, you saw you saw it in these elections, is somehow extension of domestic policy or other
00:25:19.380 way around.
00:25:20.180 And to to stop, you know, changing these policies, you know, from elections to elections, because
00:25:27.420 if from Harry Truman to Ronald Reagan, and that's what I argued in the book, American foreign
00:25:32.100 policy was quite consistent.
00:25:33.620 There were some modifications with basically all presidents, Democrats and Republicans.
00:25:37.900 They they they they knew what was America's role in the world.
00:25:40.720 And they they get disagreements.
00:25:42.940 They were, you know, within within the reach.
00:25:46.340 Now, since 1991, the collapse of the of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.
00:25:52.440 So we saw American foreign policy working more like pendulum switching from one side to another.
00:25:59.760 You have Clinton, who did little than a W did too much than Obama, who did almost nothing.
00:26:05.860 And then now you it goes to Trump, who can do whatever nobody can predict.
00:26:10.900 And it's quite interesting that when you look at the all presidents, you know, were elected,
00:26:15.300 you know, since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War in the last
00:26:18.960 25 years, I think it's the first time in American history that the four presidents that were
00:26:23.880 elected, Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump, they had no foreign policy expertise and very little
00:26:31.000 sort of national exposure.
00:26:33.580 OK, Trump had it, but it's not political.
00:26:35.640 So it's interesting that that's, you know, it's the it seems that if Americans looking for
00:26:41.880 something else, you know, so the country, you know, didn't want to hear about big problems
00:26:46.040 and wanted just to, you know, have a comfortable life, let's enjoy.
00:26:49.580 And now we reached a point, you know, after these elections that, you know, it's time to
00:26:54.500 define America's role in the world.
00:26:56.240 And I don't believe that the United States has a chance to to stay away and just to isolate
00:27:03.260 since, you know, the world, you know, has changed and very much under American influence.
00:27:09.180 And walking away means that, you know, you will have to come back.
00:27:12.900 But but but when it happens, it will be already under the terms of your enemies.
00:27:17.900 Yeah, that final point is really worth reflecting on, because to retreat and to ignore the world's
00:27:25.820 problems when we alone among nations have this disproportionate potential influence to let
00:27:34.320 genocides happen, you know, especially in the case of, you know, we draw a red line and our bluff
00:27:39.180 gets called and then we do nothing. That kind of weakness is really provocative. And as you say,
00:27:45.200 then once we're dragged back into involvement, it's on the terms that are now on the ground,
00:27:50.440 you know, the pieces on the board, to use your analogy, have have moved, and we're in a worse
00:27:55.300 position. And so let's let's talk about the position we're in with respect to Putin at this
00:28:00.320 point, because it seems to me and you make this point as well, that he's running a very clever
00:28:06.480 dictatorship. It's a dictatorship that for those who don't want to see it as one seems to be justified
00:28:13.420 by, you know, a high level of support. He holds elections and he's managed to sanitize his reputation
00:28:20.720 by being taken seriously as a statesman on the world stage. And again, you point this out many times
00:28:27.140 that American, many American and European administrations are culpable for this. So
00:28:33.000 this policy of engagement with Putin has given him a free pass to do more or less whatever he's
00:28:38.340 wanted. And of course, this all has been facilitated by a rise in oil prices. But Putin seems like
00:28:45.140 quite a sinister figure. How bad is he?
00:28:49.880 It's very bad and he's getting worse. But, you know, we have to give him credit. And you're right,
00:28:54.280 you know, pointing out at his strengths and his ability to manipulate both domestically and
00:28:59.680 internationally. He started in, you know, in the beginning of this century. So as as a president
00:29:07.840 of Russia, so whether he had an idea of turning his rule into dictatorship, I don't know. But he
00:29:14.980 wasn't he is an opportunist. And he suddenly saw big opportunities. Oil prices, you know, were rising.
00:29:21.480 So giving him, you know, a limited amount of cash. And also, he just recognized that there was a lot
00:29:27.080 of goodwill on the on the other side. So he could play games with with George W. Bush. It was an
00:29:34.160 amazing, you know, psychological game when they met in June 2001. And Putin told him a story about,
00:29:42.880 you know, hiding, you know, cross, you know, while, you know, being in a KGB school. So because he was
00:29:49.220 baptized by his grandmother or whatever. I mean, it's obviously it's a fake story. But, you know,
00:29:54.620 he he made it was a perfect calculation for George W. That was a story that always, you know,
00:30:01.800 caught, you know, cause him to cry because it was about religion. So just about affectionate about the
00:30:08.440 Putin's connection to religion. And and he built a very strong psychological contact with with George
00:30:15.140 W. who after his meeting said that he looked into Putin's soul, looked, looked and put his eyes and
00:30:21.640 saw his soul. So that was a big victory. And Putin strengthened his ties with with George W. by being
00:30:28.440 the first leader calling after 9-11 immediately, recognizing that that was a moment, you know,
00:30:33.420 where he could, you know, have a Bush, you know, on his side for many years to come.
00:30:37.500 So he was very good in building this relations and looking for friends because at that time he needed
00:30:43.560 friendship from the Western leaders to neutralize any opposition in Russia. And I remember in 2006 when
00:30:49.880 Putin was hosting the G8 meeting in St. Petersburg. And I was always reluctant to call it G8 because
00:30:56.320 G7 stood for seven great industrial democracies and Russia was neither democracy nor industrial power.
00:31:02.640 But Putin, you know, was there, you know, actually Yeltsin was the first one to be invited like an
00:31:09.180 advanced payment for immature Russian democracy. And Putin fully capitalized on his position of being
00:31:16.340 one of the members of G8. And it was his turn in 2006 to host it. And it was a phenomenal PR success
00:31:25.620 for Putin because Russian television, you know, um, had, uh, was showing these meetings from every
00:31:31.480 angle. And, uh, you know, they say that, you know, picture is more powerful than thousand wars,
00:31:36.540 but Putin had both the picture and thousand wars. And, uh, how could people like myself or late Boris
00:31:42.360 Demtsov, how could we convince even, you know, liberal minded Russians that Putin was not a Democrat,
00:31:49.280 Putin was not recognized as democratic elected leader while every other leader of the free world was
00:31:54.640 there, you know, to, to, to, to, to greet him as one of the equals. So Putin, by using this,
00:32:00.940 you know, by using this game, Putin totally neutralized opposition in Russia. And as you
00:32:06.000 pointed out, you know, created an image of, you know, of, of, um, a ruler that was not probably,
00:32:11.980 you know, um, uh, true Democrat, but, you know, he was not one to fear, um, not one who could,
00:32:20.860 you know, who could destroy, you know, democratic institutions. Uh, and that, uh, and that's why
00:32:26.580 his decision to stay behind Medvedev when he following constitution, he had to step down,
00:32:31.520 but he stayed, you know, as a prime minister. And we all in Russia knew that it was, you know,
00:32:35.860 he was a puppet master who was pulling the strings. Um, it, you know, it, it caused some kind of an
00:32:41.400 illusion, uh, for Europe and for the United States where, um, politicians, political leaders
00:32:47.800 believed that they could play Medvedev against Putin. And eventually they could see some kind
00:32:52.320 of, uh, peaceful transition of Russia from Putin's, you know, as, as they thought slightly
00:32:58.520 authoritarian regime into something more democratic, not recognizing that Putin was buying time,
00:33:04.640 uh, um, to, um, strengthen his crippling power. And eventually he would come back as the all
00:33:11.140 powerful dictator as it happened in, in, uh, 2012. And then as every dictator, you know, he had to,
00:33:17.220 uh, change gears because if he needs friends in the beginning of his rule, eventually he needs
00:33:23.120 enemies because at some time he realized that all economic, um, resources that could, uh, generate
00:33:31.600 steady growth of, um, Russian GDP and, and more, more important, um, steady improvement of, uh,
00:33:41.460 leading standards for the Russians. These resources have been, you know, have been wiped out by the,
00:33:46.940 lower oil prices and also by the aging infrastructure and by endemic corruption.
00:33:52.340 So economy was no longer serving Putin and he needed something else to legitimize his endless
00:33:58.560 same power. And as every dictator, he turned for foreign aggression. As we warned from, from the
00:34:04.300 beginning saying Putin was our problem. Eventually it would be everybody's problem because this is the
00:34:09.620 way dictatorship works. And, uh, it was amazing that Americans and Europeans didn't want to see it.
00:34:16.160 It didn't be the rise of anti-American, anti-Western propaganda on Russian television. Um, and since
00:34:22.240 2012, it became, you know, a staple of Putin's, uh, domestic propaganda to blast America for anything
00:34:29.800 that happens in the world and to present Russia as the sort of besieged, uh, fortress of good
00:34:36.820 surrounded by global evil. By the way, they, they, they, they use this language. This is, this is the
00:34:41.440 language used by Russian television. Right, right. Is it true that the level of anti-Americanism in
00:34:46.360 Russia now is, is the worst it's ever been? Look, maybe it was worse in the forties and the fifties.
00:34:52.940 I don't know, but it's definitely, it's definitely the worst in my lifetime. And, uh, I can rely on my
00:34:59.100 mother's comments. She's turning 80 next March. Uh, so she was born under Stalin. And of course, you know,
00:35:04.600 propaganda machine was, you know, different because, you know, there was no television, there was only radio
00:35:09.460 and then, you know, primitive TV. So it's hard to compare to, to, to, to, to these days, but she said
00:35:15.260 that, you know, by listening to, to, to, to Russian media today, um, she couldn't help but thinking
00:35:23.500 that while Soviet propaganda was, you know, was, um, very intense and it was brainwashing, but it was
00:35:32.020 still about bright future. So Soviet propaganda tried to present something that is more, you know, um, uh,
00:35:39.300 it's more positive, something, something futuristic that, you know, that, that, that could, uh, make a
00:35:45.680 great deal of difference for everybody. So they talked about, of course it was false talk, but still
00:35:51.340 they talked about, you know, communist brotherhood, you know, generations ahead of us, uh, and about,
00:35:57.660 you know, competition between socialism and capitalism and about socialism, you know, so gaining
00:36:01.800 ground. So there was some kind of a competition about, uh, uh, fighting for the, for the better
00:36:07.540 future of, of humanity. Putin's propaganda is more like cult of death. So Russia has no allies. It's
00:36:15.120 all about, you know, Putin defending Russia against global evil. It's, you know, we all maybe have to
00:36:20.280 die, you know, but it's, but it's, the language is so poisoning. And my mother says it's, it's,
00:36:25.280 it's depressing. It is so depressing. And, you know, because of modern technology, it comes, you know,
00:36:31.800 as we say in Russia from every kettle. So it's from everywhere. So, and it's 24 seven and, uh,
00:36:39.800 and this propaganda, which, you know, just, it's, it's follows oral rules that, you know,
00:36:44.640 it should be total lie. So it's not just, you know, you know, some truth, some lies, but it's
00:36:50.420 basically, you know, it's as white as black, you know, war is peace, you know, freedom is slavery.
00:36:54.220 So it's, it's totally reversing the facts. And if, if it's so intense as, as it, as it is now,
00:37:02.380 you know, it works and it works way beyond Russia now, because we could see polls in some European
00:37:09.020 countries or people, you know, ordinary people in, in, in, in these countries, they are just buying
00:37:14.820 the Putin versions of the events in, in Ukraine, in, in, um, uh, Middle East, um, and elsewhere.
00:37:22.200 So what's the significance of his being a former KGB figure? President Bush senior ran the CIA,
00:37:29.200 and I've never heard it said of him that that made him somehow nefarious by definition. Obviously
00:37:35.220 there's a false moral equivalence here, but this is the way many people would think about it.
00:37:39.440 How do you think about his KGB past?
00:37:42.240 Yeah, but you, you mentioned his false moral equivalence. I mean, KGB is an organization that,
00:37:47.000 you know, that I believe, you know, was, was criminal from day one. It was built by Lenin and,
00:37:51.980 and, and his, uh, associates, you know, to, uh, destroy whatever, you know, was left of freedom
00:37:58.920 in, in, in, in, in, in, in Russia. And it had a history of, of going after, um, uh, political
00:38:05.120 opponents of the regime. And, um, you know, it's, it's one of the most, uh, um, uh, uh, nefarious
00:38:10.940 acronym in the Soviet history, KGB. So these three, these, these three letters and Putin in 1999,
00:38:16.860 uh, uh, while being still a prime minister, when he spoke at the, um, meeting of, um, KGB officers
00:38:25.360 at, um, the headquarter in Lubanka square, um, he said, once KGB is always KGB. And that,
00:38:35.800 you know, you couldn't say it's better, you know, it's just, it's a recognition of the fact
00:38:39.680 that, you know, he never, you know, betrayed his organization. And he always believed that,
00:38:43.700 you know, they, they had some kind of rights, you know, to, to rule the country and just
00:38:48.160 to, um, to, um, basically they were always above the law. So the, if we are talking about
00:38:54.560 Bush 41, who was head of CIA, I know he was, he was a still civilian. And, and, uh, even
00:39:01.720 as a, as a head of CIA, you know, he knew that he was under some kind of supervision of the,
00:39:06.760 of the legislation and the president. So it's the, there were many things that, you know,
00:39:10.860 uh, and still, still hopefully there in America, you know, that guarantee checks and balances.
00:39:15.540 So it's, you can hardly imagine, you know, one institution in that state, you know, going
00:39:19.940 just, you know, totally, um, wild. So it's probably, probably, you know, we'll still, we'll still
00:39:25.820 have to see the resilience of US democracy in the years to come, but, you know, in, in the
00:39:31.040 Soviet Union, it was, it was the opposite. So the KGB was always above the law. So it's the
00:39:35.640 whole idea that the organization, you know, was the law itself. And, um, and while today
00:39:41.420 we're looking at Putin's actions, I always warn people that, you know, you should remember
00:39:45.600 about his, his, his true nature. He's a KGB guy. So that's why, you know, while he is
00:39:51.260 not, um, he's not alien to the idea of using force, he can, you know, decimate cities, he
00:39:56.560 can do, he can order carpet bombing, he can, you know, um, order genocide, but, uh, um, but
00:40:02.520 at the same time, he always prefers to deal with more clandestine methods. So the, um,
00:40:08.640 just looking for kind of hybrid wars and, uh, and, and every opportunity to buy favors,
00:40:14.420 to blackmail people, to, to have a covert operation. And, uh, and the fact is that his, uh, reputation
00:40:21.280 is still quite sanitized, as you just said a few minutes ago worldwide is a result of,
00:40:26.240 of, uh, of these operations that have been heavily funded, uh, by Putin. And, uh, you
00:40:32.140 know, well, um, designed, um, uh, adjusting to the certain, um, uh, specifics of, uh, different
00:40:41.380 countries and, and, uh, regions. Do you think there's any truth to the rumor that he might
00:40:45.760 be the richest person on earth at this moment? I think we should, you know, we should first
00:40:50.440 agree on the definition of the richest person on earth, because, you know, um, if you, I mean...
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