Mark Slapinski


Can Poilievre Win The Next Federal Election？

Topics
Polyev leadership chances
Hosted by
Mark Slapinski
Mentioned
Pierre Poilievre Donald Trump Mark Carney Paulieff Majumdar Stephen Harper Conservative

Episode Stats


Harmful content

Toxicity

1

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Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

A year ago, in late January 25, 46% of Canadians were prepared to vote Conservative, and only 20% were willing to vote Liberal. However, only a few months later, with a new leader, the tables were turned. With a new prime minister, the Liberal Party was able to win the federal election, securing a minority government. On top of that, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Polyev lost his longtime seat in Carleton, Ottawa.

Transcript

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Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 But respectfully, Mr. Majumdar, my question was about your party, what you did wrong, why you couldn't win the election, not what they're doing wrong.
00:00:08.140 You didn't address it at all.
00:00:09.060 Pierre Polyev and his MPs are in Calgary for the Conservative Leadership Convention.
00:00:13.760 Nobody knows that Polyev is going to ace his leadership review and remain on as leader.
00:00:18.280 But a lot of people are wondering, can Polyev actually become Prime Minister?
00:00:22.200 One year ago, in late January 25, 46% of Canadians were prepared to vote Conservative, and only 20% of Canadians were prepared to vote Liberal, according to a study by Abacus Data.
00:00:32.960 However, only a few months later, the tables had turned.
00:00:36.040 With a new leader, the Liberal Party was able to win the federal election, securing a minority government.
00:00:41.660 On top of that, Conservative Party leader Pierre Polyev lost his longtime seat in Carleton, Ottawa.
00:00:47.040 Polyev didn't challenge the results, and he accepted his defeat.
00:00:49.960 This was obviously a huge loss for Conservatives, and a big win for the left.
00:00:54.980 Polyev decided to stay on as leader, and will likely one day run again in a federal election.
00:01:00.520 The question everyone's asking, does he actually have a chance at winning?
00:01:03.900 The infamous Vashti Capello has put this question to a Conservative MP based out of Calgary.
00:01:08.100 Before we get into this, I want to remind you of being heavily censored on YouTube.
00:01:12.040 If you see this part of the video, let me know in the comment section, tell me what city you're coming from, give me a quick like, and make sure you're still subscribed.
00:01:18.740 All right. All right, let's check this out.
00:01:21.020 Whatever fell short in that message that you just delivered?
00:01:23.580 This was a narrowly contested election.
00:01:25.740 Let's be very clear.
00:01:26.760 This is a very narrowly contested election with a narrow outcome, even if the prime minister acts like he's got a big mandate that he's trying to steal through his different adventures.
00:01:35.440 We're talking about a country in which over 8 million people who typically would not have connected with politics or their democracy, whether they're young people, whether they're workers, whether they're newcomers.
00:01:45.960 The coalition that Pierre Polyev has built is a coalition of people in this country that represents the generational decisions we need to make for the next half century.
00:01:53.960 That message is something that I think we're very proud of and will continue litigating at every turn like we have in the fall and we will continue to into this year.
00:02:01.880 And I wouldn't take away from the point, right?
00:02:03.660 Like, it's, you know, 400,000 plus people who essentially decided the election.
00:02:08.880 But I think it's not also fair to say that that's the whole picture.
00:02:12.340 Like, again, it's sort of a message of, well, we almost won, so we should just stay on the same track.
00:02:17.240 But that neglects to take into account the fact that two people have crossed the floor to the Liberals since, that you were a few months before that election 27 points ahead in the polls, that the leader of the party who will face that vote tomorrow night could not even secure a riding he had held for two decades.
00:02:33.720 Are you reckoning with anything, or is it just status quo?
00:02:36.560 We've had almost a year of Mark Carney's government to see him make the big decisions that Pierre Polyev has proposed all along.
00:02:44.580 You'll recall that during the campaign that Mark Carney took from the Conservatives' script as much as he could.
00:02:50.440 And that's great.
00:02:51.500 We delivered a consensus.
00:02:52.720 Pierre Polyev won the debate.
00:02:53.980 Now it's time to deliver the decisions that all of those things require for Canada, whether it's on taxes, on immigration, on getting our resources to market.
00:03:01.420 It's been almost a year, and we still haven't seen any of that.
00:03:03.820 Instead, we see gaslighting from Mark Carney's ministers on issues that we've been proactive on, whether it's bail reform, getting our resources to market with our Sovereignty Act and the motion we proposed yesterday.
00:03:13.900 They keep voting against the very things they ran on.
00:03:16.880 They've said one thing during the campaign, undo another as a government.
00:03:20.000 So delivering a government that's actually on the basis of hope, on results, on the things that Canadians expect, is, I think, a great thing for us to go forward with.
00:03:29.300 I'd be the last person to argue that the government doesn't deserve hard questions of accountability on what they have and haven't delivered on.
00:03:35.980 But respectfully, Mr. Majumdar, my question was about your party, what you did wrong, why you couldn't win the election, not what they're doing wrong.
00:03:44.140 You didn't address it at all.
00:03:45.560 Well, listen, I think that our party performed extraordinarily.
00:03:48.440 We've achieved a thing in this country that no Conservative leader has in its history.
00:03:52.540 And when you think about the people that we represent, the voices that we animate in Parliament, and the consensus that we have achieved in this country, that despite even with the support of Conservatives for the last year, the Carney Liberals aren't able to move forward the major things that we have proposed and will continue to propose.
00:04:09.360 So the difference between us and them is that they have nice rhetoric but don't deliver any results.
00:04:14.620 We actually have the plan to get the thing done.
00:04:16.380 The other difference with respect, though, is that they're in government, and Mr. Carney's personal popularity, according to every single public opinion poll I can find, is nearly double that of Mr. Polyev.
00:04:26.540 What does Mr. Polyev need to secure in the form of a vote tomorrow in order to remain on as leader?
00:04:33.160 And I know nobody wants to say a number, but does it have to be something in the neighborhood of what Stephen Harper was able to get in a similar situation when he had lost an election but wanted to fight another one back in 2005?
00:04:45.440 That number was closer to 84, 85 percent.
00:04:48.380 Isn't it amazing that despite the backing of the press and all the support that Mr. Carney has enjoyed, that while he's been out doing his thing, his numbers as a party have not moved much.
00:04:59.560 Our numbers as a party have remained solid.
00:05:01.840 Canadians are telling us that they want to see results on the issues that we've been campaigning on.
00:05:05.840 And Pierre Polyev has been touring the entire country, talking to Conservatives coast to coast, with massive receptions of support.
00:05:12.520 I'm, you're right, I'm not going to get into a number here today, but I will talk about a party that is united, that is focused, that supports its leader with strength.
00:05:21.700 I'm excited to see what numbers we do get over the course of the weekend and energized with Pierre Polyev as the next prime minister of this country.
00:05:29.460 That was a great answer by this MP and he touched on a lot of great points.
00:05:32.900 However, I want to elaborate on this a little bit more.
00:05:35.040 Politicians have a lot of constraints, to say the least, so they can't always say things as directly as people like I can.
00:05:42.200 And I'll be the first to point out that Polyev did a fantastic job last election, turned some writings blue, and had a record turnout.
00:05:49.220 However, politics isn't really about doing a good job.
00:05:52.120 It's about winning, and unfortunately, Polyev's Conservatives lost.
00:05:55.600 My analysis is that Polyev was on track to becoming the next prime minister of Canada,
00:05:58.960 and he would have won and maintained his lead, except for one thing he couldn't control.
00:06:04.000 And that was that guy down south, Donald Trump.
00:06:06.780 Donald Trump's second presidency threw a curveball at Polyev and his team that they simply couldn't pivot to deal with.
00:06:13.340 Nobody could have expected Donald Trump threatening to annex Canada or start a trade war with us.
00:06:18.060 That was completely unexpected, and Polyev had a hard time dealing with that.
00:06:21.640 The Liberals' new leader, Mark Carney, whether you like it or not,
00:06:24.680 was effectively able to position himself as the right person to deal with Donald Trump.
00:06:28.460 Now, the tricky thing is that a lot of Polyev supporters really like Trump. 1.00
00:06:32.180 So if Polyev took a stronger stance against Trump, he would have alienated a large part of his base.
00:06:37.740 Sure, he could have won over more centrist voters, but he would have alienated a lot of people,
00:06:42.220 and that put him in a really hard position.
00:06:44.400 Now, other political commentators on my side really dumb it down, and they blame it all on the media.
00:06:50.000 And there might be some truth to this, in the sense that we don't have a right-wing news network
00:06:54.600 broadcasting on television, sort of like Fox News in the United States.
00:06:58.460 And a lot of media outlets in Canada are very left-wing and biased against conservatives.
00:07:04.120 So there's some truth to that.
00:07:06.060 However, it's not quite that simple.
00:07:07.740 Most Canadians are not dumb, and they're genuinely worried when the leader of the free world,
00:07:12.540 quote-unquote, the leader of the most powerful military, the most powerful economy, 0.91
00:07:17.180 starts a trade war with Canada and then talks about annexing us.
00:07:20.360 To be quite frank, even I was worried about that.
00:07:22.400 A very smart man once said that the definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over again
00:07:27.560 and expecting different results.
00:07:29.820 In order for Paulieff to win the next election, he either needs a different set of circumstances,
00:07:34.740 or he needs to change up his approach.
00:07:37.600 I still think there's a good chance Paulieff will win the next election.
00:07:40.100 However, it will require Donald Trump losing the midterm elections.
00:07:43.640 His poll numbers aren't doing so great right now anyway,
00:07:45.940 so there's a good chance he will lose and either become a lame-duck president or even get impeached.
00:07:51.600 However, I'm still optimistic.
00:07:53.160 Just like nobody could have predicted that Paulieff was going to lose last year,
00:07:56.380 we could still see an unexpected change in circumstances that are in our favor.
00:08:00.320 There's still a number of issues that Paulieff can win on, such as immigration reform and tax reform.
00:08:05.520 So once Trump is out of the picture, conservatives can get back on track to winning.
00:08:09.340 So yes, Paulieff can still win the next election, and I hope he does.
00:08:12.740 But the path ahead is not straightforward, and it will require a bit of luck.
00:08:17.760 Thanks for tuning in.
00:08:18.900 I love you all.
00:08:19.860 Talk to you tomorrow, Patriots.