Carney’s Budget Officer Has DIRE WARNING
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Summary
Just when Mark Carney thought things couldn t get any worse, it gets worse. And when I say worse, I mean a lot worse. Today, Mark Carney s right-hand man went on national television to spill the beans about Canada s dire economic situation.
Transcript
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Just when Mark Carney thought things couldn't get any worse, it gets worse. And when I say
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worse, I mean a lot worse. Today, Mark Carney's right-hand man went on national television to
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spill the beans about Canada's dire economic situation. Let's watch that video together.
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Government's expected deficit spike. The Prime Minister has already signaled the size of the
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deficit will be, quote, substantial due to the economic impacts of our trade war with the US,
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but the Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer this week is sounding an alarm over just how
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substantial. Pardon me, Jason Jakes is projecting the Liberals will post an annual deficit of $68.5
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billion this year, up from $51.7 billion last year. And that the federal debt to GDP ratio will
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increase over the medium term and remain above its pre-pandemic levels. It's not a funny fiscal
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outlook. It's a really serious fiscal outlook. And we don't lightly use the word unsustainable,
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right? Unsustainable means you don't have the option of saying, maybe I'll wait a couple of
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years, I'll see how things go. It means if you don't change, this is done.
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And just for some quick context, Mark Carney has lost the support of his propagandists at
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CBC and CTV. That's why they're finally reporting on stories honestly for once.
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Joining me now for more is Jason Jakes. Hi, Mr. Jakes. Good to have you back here in studio. I
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appreciate you making the time. Yeah, thanks for the invitation.
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Our audience would just have heard a little snippet right now of what you told committee
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this week about the fiscal outlook that you presented. You said it's not a funny fiscal
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outlook. It's really serious. Why did you say that?
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Well, in the report, we clearly indicated that based upon the path we're currently on
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by our estimates, it raises significant concerns with respect to the sustainability of federal
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finances. What does that mean in layman's terms? I'm asking because we hear that word a lot from
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economists, particularly when we're talking about deficits or balanced budgets. What isn't
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sustainable when you say that you have concerns about the sustainability of our financial picture
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here in this country? Like what in layman's terms does that mean? I think the like certainly from
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our perspective, we're kind of we're at the precipice. So we haven't gone over the precipice.
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We're kind of looking out over the cliff at this point. And we're at a point where based upon our
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numbers, things cannot continue as they are. And I think everybody knows that, right? So what we've
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done is we've taken what everybody's feeling in terms of the anxiety across the country at this
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point, positive economic growth that doesn't necessarily feel very good. And we've actually
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put numbers around it with respect to the federal government's deficits over the next five years.
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And for us, it's really important to set the table for parliamentarians so they know what to
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expect, so they have a better sense of the overall context within which they're going to be presented
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with budget 2025. So what's what's at stake at the precipice? Like, if you fall over the cliff,
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what's there? If you're able to go the other way, what's there? The obviously you don't want to go
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over the precipice. That's probably what happens though, if you do? Nothing good. And nothing,
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nothing good. And I think for parliamentarians, and certainly, I think all Canadians are very much
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aware of the challenging economic times that we're in and the fact that we're going to have more
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challenging times as we go forward, both in terms of trying to manage the deficit. So there isn't a
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lot of fiscal space the government has to actually work with at this point. But I think also more
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broadly looking at the restructuring of the Canadian economy. So something we've touched on as part of
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the committee hearings, and I think other people have highlighted is this world order that we've had for
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the past 75 years is done. That both has geopolitical considerations around additional spending or
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increasing spending on the defense side, which is definitely a spending pressure. It also has
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immediate pressures in terms of the Canadian economy and the definitely the attenuating or the
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diminishing of the linkages with the U.S. and our need to find other linkages outside the country.
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So in short, it means a lot of change within a relatively short period of time.
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What does it mean for the near term or the more immediacy, though, as far as impacts on both the
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economy and what you're looking at, the fiscal outlook? And I ask because in response to some
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of your analysis, for example, the federal finance minister focused on, look, we're kind of in an
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emergency, I'm paraphrasing, but we're going to need to provide certain supports and ensure that our
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economy can withstand that. I sort of interpret that as, you know, we will have to spend more than
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we would have liked to, let's say, because we have to address the imperative that this trade war with
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the United States has created and the sort of shock factor to our economy. How much wiggle room do they
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actually have to do that in your view? It is a very narrow path. It's a very narrow path. And it's going to
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require it's going to require both consideration of shifting spending within within the federal
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government, in addition to reducing spending or potentially cutting programs in some areas,
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as well as potentially some consideration around increases in revenues in order to make sure that
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the Canadian economy, Canada, is actually able to navigate that very narrow path.
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If I try to understand that in sort of layman's terms, again, does that mean that, you know,
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essentially they can't just add those emergency measures, they're going to have to take something
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away? In order to be in order to be sustained, sustainable and reduce certainly the anxiety we
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have in the office, and I think provide a certain amount of comfort both to both to other members
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of parliament, other parliamentarians and Canadians writ large, there's going to have to be some sort
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of substantial change at this point. I think for myself, like I always think of it like the best
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analogy being you go into your doctor's office, you've had a bunch of tests in advance, your doctor
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sits you down and she says, yeah, well, there are a bunch of bad indicators on your blood and other
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bodily fluids, and if you continue everything you're doing right now, you're not going to end
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up in a good place and not where you want to be. So you need to make some lifestyle changes at this
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point, and for the federal government, potentially it's going on a bit of a diet in terms of some
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areas of spending. Potentially they want to bulk up on the defense side and expand those areas,
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and potentially they also want to consider, I don't know, taking on additional hours at the office
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so they can increase their revenues all at the same time. Do you mean new taxes?
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Uh, I guess we'll see. There are multiple options with respect to revenues. Okay. So just in case
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you're not following along, this is not good. Canada is like a cancer patient being told if you don't
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stop smoking, you're going to die. And Canada keeps smoking. We're actually doubling the amount we're
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smoking. That's how bad things are right now. Now it's funny how both the PBO and the interviewer
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are really calm in this episode. However, this is not the time to be calm. This is the time to be
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worried. And I'm not trying to fear monger. I'm just being straight with you. Canada is in rough
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shape and it's just getting worse and worse every single day.
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I did want to ask because one thing in particular when you're talking about sustainability that you
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flagged was your projections where debt to GDP are concerned. It's been, you know, there's lots of
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talk about what's the fiscal anchor, what isn't, all that kind of stuff. One of the ones that has
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consistently, I think, been identified by the previous government, and in some cases this one
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already, is the debt to GDP ratio. And often, you know, you flagged that going up over the medium
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term is a big concern. Often, you know, when I have interviewed, let's say, people in the government
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about it, the counter has been, and this happened during committee to a certain degree as well,
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you know, it's still not as bad as other countries. Like relative to the positioning of other countries,
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that ratio in Canada is better. Does that matter?
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I'm the Canadian parliamentary budget officer. So from my perspective, I'm focused on the Canadian
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context and not actually paying, being aware of what's going on in the other jurisdictions,
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but very much focused on the Canadian federal context. Exactly. Fashion really pisses me off
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sometimes. Of course, Canada isn't like Venezuela or Nicaragua or Lebanon, but that's the direction
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we're going in. Just because things are worse in those countries doesn't mean that things aren't bad
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in Canada. On top of that, Canada is used to having a high standard of living. We're not used to being a
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poor country. Canada is supposed to be one of the richest countries in the world because we're awash
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with natural resources. However, things are getting worse and worse every day, and every day we get
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closer to living like those people in South America. However, I'm grateful that Jason remained calm
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and put that bimbo in her place. And while we're here, if you're enjoying this episode, don't forget
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to like and subscribe. And having an increasing debt to GDP ratio over the next five years is
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a considerable cause for concern. If for no other reason, as you point out, it has been probably,
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I would say, the most important mainstay anchor for federal budgetary targets over the past 30 years.
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And certainly looking at the people that lend money to the country, it's one of the key indicators
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that they look at as well. Why is that ratio important? Well, because it represents two really
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important things that I think are really intuitive for people. The first is GDP, and that's the size
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of the economy. So how much stuff are we producing? How wealthy is the economy and how wealthy are
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households? And the second is debt. So how much debt do we actually have to pay back? And I think for
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most people who run their own household budgets, you have a good sense of how much money you've taken
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in over the course of the year, and what are your payments on either your mortgage or car loan and
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other payments you need to make on a regular basis. And in a situation where the cost of actually
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servicing or potentially paying down your debt as a share of your overall income, if that's going up
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over time, it means that you need to make some tough choices regarding, okay, got to pay my mortgage,
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but potentially I'm not buying chicken this week. And I'm going to shift to something that's a little
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bit cheaper. That's a good way of describing it. I just have one final question for you. And I know
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that your analysis included, I think it was up until August the 11th, the spending that had been
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announced, new items, but there's some stuff that's happened since then. And I imagine in the budget,
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there will be other spending initiatives announced. Plus, you've got a spending review underway,
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and we don't know what the conclusions of that will be. If you were to take a guess at this point
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about what the impact and the aggregate of that is on your projections, do you think that an even
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It really does depend on what the government decides as part of the budget, because again,
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there end up being two key moving parts, both on the spending side and on the revenue side.
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And I think at this point, it kind of remains to be seen where they ultimately end up.
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But certainly something that we're focusing on, the short term is obviously important.
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We're also really keen to see where the government's targets are over the longer term,
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and potentially a recommitment to a declining debt to GDP ratio over time.
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Okay, I'm going to leave it there. Mr. Jakes, a pleasure. Thank you for your analysis today.
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Jason Jakes is the interim parliamentary budget officer.
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So I got two things from this interview. The most obvious one is that Carney needs to go.
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Number two, and this is a bit less obvious, is that the mainstream media, particularly CBC and CTV,
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still give really softball interviews to liberals. Imagine if the conservatives were
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running a sky-high deficit. Vashti would have ripped them apart. And for reference,
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you can check out the interview between Vashti and Polyev. She was really hard on Polyev.
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She never does that with liberals. They never do that with liberals. But I'm a credit where credit
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is due guy, and I'm glad to see the mainstream media finally, slowly but finally, turning on
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their puppet masters. I'm not sure exactly why they're doing this, but I have to give credit where
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it's due. Of course, it would have been better if they started telling the truth 10 years ago,
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but it's better late than never. Now, you know I hate to make predictions, but I'm going to give
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one. I really believe that Carney will be out of office within the next year, probably less than
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six months. He's either going to resign or he's going to face a no-confidence vote. There's no
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way he's going to survive all of this. He's lost the CBC. He's lost CTV. Even other major networks
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are turning on him, and you've never seen this happen that fast. On top of that, people within
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his own government are turning on him. Christopher Freeland is out, and now the PBO is sounding the
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alarm. I really believe it's only going to get worse after this. Carney hasn't delivered a single
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campaign promise. He hasn't gotten a deal with Donald Trump. He hasn't fixed the economy. All
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he's done is vacation around and do photo ops. He's just like Justin Trudeau. Polyev warned us
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about this. I really believe if Polyev was in office, we'd have a good deal with Donald Trump.
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We'd have a better deal with China, and we'd be building pipelines all across the country.
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There'd be so many pipelines we wouldn't know what to do with all of them. Instead, we have Carney,
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and not a single pipeline is being built. Think about that for a second. We have more oil than
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most countries on earth. The only countries that have more oil than Canada are Saudi Arabia and
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Venezuela, right? We have the resources, the potential, the manpower, the will. It's just the
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government is in the way, and this needs to end. But I truly hope that Canadians are actually watching
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these news stories on TV and seeing for themselves that they made the wrong decision. They voted in
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the wrong government, and this can never happen again. And of course, Canada's in pretty rough
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shape right now, but I still have hope that things will get better. Talk to you tomorrow, patriots.