Mark Slapinski

00:00:00.000 Just when Mark Carney thought things couldn't get any worse, it gets worse. And when I say

00:00:05.000 worse, I mean a lot worse. Today, Mark Carney's right-hand man went on national television to

00:00:10.740 spill the beans about Canada's dire economic situation. Let's watch that video together.

00:00:15.960 Government's expected deficit spike. The Prime Minister has already signaled the size of the

00:00:20.440 deficit will be, quote, substantial due to the economic impacts of our trade war with the US,

00:00:25.040 but the Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer this week is sounding an alarm over just how

00:00:29.300 substantial. Pardon me, Jason Jakes is projecting the Liberals will post an annual deficit of $68.5

00:00:35.420 billion this year, up from $51.7 billion last year. And that the federal debt to GDP ratio will

00:00:42.820 increase over the medium term and remain above its pre-pandemic levels. It's not a funny fiscal

00:00:48.440 outlook. It's a really serious fiscal outlook. And we don't lightly use the word unsustainable,

00:00:57.360 right? Unsustainable means you don't have the option of saying, maybe I'll wait a couple of

00:01:06.400 years, I'll see how things go. It means if you don't change, this is done.

00:01:11.920 And just for some quick context, Mark Carney has lost the support of his propagandists at

00:01:15.480 CBC and CTV. That's why they're finally reporting on stories honestly for once.

00:01:20.160 Joining me now for more is Jason Jakes. Hi, Mr. Jakes. Good to have you back here in studio. I

00:01:24.080 appreciate you making the time. Yeah, thanks for the invitation.

00:01:26.460 Our audience would just have heard a little snippet right now of what you told committee

00:01:30.880 this week about the fiscal outlook that you presented. You said it's not a funny fiscal

00:01:36.140 outlook. It's really serious. Why did you say that?

00:01:38.480 Well, in the report, we clearly indicated that based upon the path we're currently on

00:01:46.060 by our estimates, it raises significant concerns with respect to the sustainability of federal

00:01:52.500 finances. What does that mean in layman's terms? I'm asking because we hear that word a lot from

00:01:58.660 economists, particularly when we're talking about deficits or balanced budgets. What isn't

00:02:03.020 sustainable when you say that you have concerns about the sustainability of our financial picture

00:02:10.080 here in this country? Like what in layman's terms does that mean? I think the like certainly from 0.98

00:02:15.760 our perspective, we're kind of we're at the precipice. So we haven't gone over the precipice.

00:02:19.680 We're kind of looking out over the cliff at this point. And we're at a point where based upon our

00:02:25.860 numbers, things cannot continue as they are. And I think everybody knows that, right? So what we've

00:02:31.880 done is we've taken what everybody's feeling in terms of the anxiety across the country at this

00:02:36.460 point, positive economic growth that doesn't necessarily feel very good. And we've actually

00:02:41.540 put numbers around it with respect to the federal government's deficits over the next five years.

00:02:47.200 And for us, it's really important to set the table for parliamentarians so they know what to

00:02:51.880 expect, so they have a better sense of the overall context within which they're going to be presented

00:02:57.020 with budget 2025. So what's what's at stake at the precipice? Like, if you fall over the cliff,

00:03:03.680 what's there? If you're able to go the other way, what's there? The obviously you don't want to go

00:03:09.720 over the precipice. That's probably what happens though, if you do? Nothing good. And nothing,

00:03:17.960 nothing good. And I think for parliamentarians, and certainly, I think all Canadians are very much

00:03:23.840 aware of the challenging economic times that we're in and the fact that we're going to have more

00:03:29.460 challenging times as we go forward, both in terms of trying to manage the deficit. So there isn't a

00:03:36.940 lot of fiscal space the government has to actually work with at this point. But I think also more

00:03:41.240 broadly looking at the restructuring of the Canadian economy. So something we've touched on as part of

00:03:46.020 the committee hearings, and I think other people have highlighted is this world order that we've had for

00:03:52.120 the past 75 years is done. That both has geopolitical considerations around additional spending or

00:03:59.320 increasing spending on the defense side, which is definitely a spending pressure. It also has

00:04:03.840 immediate pressures in terms of the Canadian economy and the definitely the attenuating or the

00:04:09.980 diminishing of the linkages with the U.S. and our need to find other linkages outside the country.

00:04:15.140 So in short, it means a lot of change within a relatively short period of time.

00:04:19.360 What does it mean for the near term or the more immediacy, though, as far as impacts on both the

00:04:25.340 economy and what you're looking at, the fiscal outlook? And I ask because in response to some

00:04:30.100 of your analysis, for example, the federal finance minister focused on, look, we're kind of in an

00:04:35.400 emergency, I'm paraphrasing, but we're going to need to provide certain supports and ensure that our

00:04:40.620 economy can withstand that. I sort of interpret that as, you know, we will have to spend more than

00:04:46.420 we would have liked to, let's say, because we have to address the imperative that this trade war with

00:04:51.820 the United States has created and the sort of shock factor to our economy. How much wiggle room do they

00:04:57.620 actually have to do that in your view? It is a very narrow path. It's a very narrow path. And it's going to

00:05:05.320 require it's going to require both consideration of shifting spending within within the federal

00:05:12.520 government, in addition to reducing spending or potentially cutting programs in some areas,

00:05:17.680 as well as potentially some consideration around increases in revenues in order to make sure that

00:05:24.560 the Canadian economy, Canada, is actually able to navigate that very narrow path.

00:05:29.860 If I try to understand that in sort of layman's terms, again, does that mean that, you know,

00:05:36.840 essentially they can't just add those emergency measures, they're going to have to take something

00:05:41.360 away? In order to be in order to be sustained, sustainable and reduce certainly the anxiety we

00:05:47.840 have in the office, and I think provide a certain amount of comfort both to both to other members

00:05:54.180 of parliament, other parliamentarians and Canadians writ large, there's going to have to be some sort

00:06:00.860 of substantial change at this point. I think for myself, like I always think of it like the best

00:06:06.380 analogy being you go into your doctor's office, you've had a bunch of tests in advance, your doctor

00:06:12.740 sits you down and she says, yeah, well, there are a bunch of bad indicators on your blood and other

00:06:17.960 bodily fluids, and if you continue everything you're doing right now, you're not going to end

00:06:24.460 up in a good place and not where you want to be. So you need to make some lifestyle changes at this

00:06:29.720 point, and for the federal government, potentially it's going on a bit of a diet in terms of some

00:06:34.860 areas of spending. Potentially they want to bulk up on the defense side and expand those areas,

00:06:40.640 and potentially they also want to consider, I don't know, taking on additional hours at the office

00:06:45.420 so they can increase their revenues all at the same time. Do you mean new taxes?

00:06:49.580 Uh, I guess we'll see. There are multiple options with respect to revenues. Okay. So just in case

00:06:55.520 you're not following along, this is not good. Canada is like a cancer patient being told if you don't

00:07:01.740 stop smoking, you're going to die. And Canada keeps smoking. We're actually doubling the amount we're 0.99

00:07:07.960 smoking. That's how bad things are right now. Now it's funny how both the PBO and the interviewer

00:07:13.440 are really calm in this episode. However, this is not the time to be calm. This is the time to be

00:07:18.540 worried. And I'm not trying to fear monger. I'm just being straight with you. Canada is in rough

00:07:23.440 shape and it's just getting worse and worse every single day.

00:07:26.500 I did want to ask because one thing in particular when you're talking about sustainability that you

00:07:30.300 flagged was your projections where debt to GDP are concerned. It's been, you know, there's lots of

00:07:35.460 talk about what's the fiscal anchor, what isn't, all that kind of stuff. One of the ones that has

00:07:39.400 consistently, I think, been identified by the previous government, and in some cases this one

00:07:43.980 already, is the debt to GDP ratio. And often, you know, you flagged that going up over the medium

00:07:49.720 term is a big concern. Often, you know, when I have interviewed, let's say, people in the government

00:07:54.780 about it, the counter has been, and this happened during committee to a certain degree as well,

00:07:59.960 you know, it's still not as bad as other countries. Like relative to the positioning of other countries,

00:08:04.820 that ratio in Canada is better. Does that matter?

00:08:11.780 I'm the Canadian parliamentary budget officer. So from my perspective, I'm focused on the Canadian

00:08:16.660 context and not actually paying, being aware of what's going on in the other jurisdictions,

00:08:21.680 but very much focused on the Canadian federal context. Exactly. Fashion really pisses me off

00:08:27.380 sometimes. Of course, Canada isn't like Venezuela or Nicaragua or Lebanon, but that's the direction

00:08:33.340 we're going in. Just because things are worse in those countries doesn't mean that things aren't bad

00:08:38.320 in Canada. On top of that, Canada is used to having a high standard of living. We're not used to being a

00:08:44.420 poor country. Canada is supposed to be one of the richest countries in the world because we're awash

00:08:49.600 with natural resources. However, things are getting worse and worse every day, and every day we get

00:08:55.220 closer to living like those people in South America. However, I'm grateful that Jason remained calm 0.95

00:09:00.360 and put that bimbo in her place. And while we're here, if you're enjoying this episode, don't forget 1.00

00:09:04.780 to like and subscribe. And having an increasing debt to GDP ratio over the next five years is

00:09:11.140 a considerable cause for concern. If for no other reason, as you point out, it has been probably,

00:09:17.060 I would say, the most important mainstay anchor for federal budgetary targets over the past 30 years.

00:09:24.400 And certainly looking at the people that lend money to the country, it's one of the key indicators

00:09:29.080 that they look at as well. Why is that ratio important? Well, because it represents two really

00:09:35.160 important things that I think are really intuitive for people. The first is GDP, and that's the size

00:09:42.480 of the economy. So how much stuff are we producing? How wealthy is the economy and how wealthy are

00:09:48.360 households? And the second is debt. So how much debt do we actually have to pay back? And I think for

00:09:54.360 most people who run their own household budgets, you have a good sense of how much money you've taken

00:09:59.800 in over the course of the year, and what are your payments on either your mortgage or car loan and

00:10:05.900 other payments you need to make on a regular basis. And in a situation where the cost of actually

00:10:12.300 servicing or potentially paying down your debt as a share of your overall income, if that's going up

00:10:17.920 over time, it means that you need to make some tough choices regarding, okay, got to pay my mortgage,

00:10:23.320 but potentially I'm not buying chicken this week. And I'm going to shift to something that's a little

00:10:29.060 bit cheaper. That's a good way of describing it. I just have one final question for you. And I know

00:10:33.100 that your analysis included, I think it was up until August the 11th, the spending that had been

00:10:38.080 announced, new items, but there's some stuff that's happened since then. And I imagine in the budget,

00:10:45.000 there will be other spending initiatives announced. Plus, you've got a spending review underway,

00:10:49.800 and we don't know what the conclusions of that will be. If you were to take a guess at this point

00:10:54.040 about what the impact and the aggregate of that is on your projections, do you think that an even

00:10:58.820 bigger deficit is possible?

00:11:01.680 It really does depend on what the government decides as part of the budget, because again,

00:11:06.040 there end up being two key moving parts, both on the spending side and on the revenue side.

00:11:11.400 And I think at this point, it kind of remains to be seen where they ultimately end up.

00:11:14.780 But certainly something that we're focusing on, the short term is obviously important.

00:11:19.580 We're also really keen to see where the government's targets are over the longer term,

00:11:23.740 and potentially a recommitment to a declining debt to GDP ratio over time.

00:11:29.620 Okay, I'm going to leave it there. Mr. Jakes, a pleasure. Thank you for your analysis today.

00:11:32.540 Oh, thanks. Thanks for your interest.

00:11:34.940 Jason Jakes is the interim parliamentary budget officer.

00:11:37.720 So I got two things from this interview. The most obvious one is that Carney needs to go.

00:11:42.440 Number two, and this is a bit less obvious, is that the mainstream media, particularly CBC and CTV,

00:11:50.320 still give really softball interviews to liberals. Imagine if the conservatives were

00:11:54.920 running a sky-high deficit. Vashti would have ripped them apart. And for reference,

00:12:00.120 you can check out the interview between Vashti and Polyev. She was really hard on Polyev.

00:12:05.080 She never does that with liberals. They never do that with liberals. But I'm a credit where credit

00:12:09.400 is due guy, and I'm glad to see the mainstream media finally, slowly but finally, turning on

00:12:15.560 their puppet masters. I'm not sure exactly why they're doing this, but I have to give credit where

00:12:20.820 it's due. Of course, it would have been better if they started telling the truth 10 years ago,

00:12:24.920 but it's better late than never. Now, you know I hate to make predictions, but I'm going to give

00:12:28.900 one. I really believe that Carney will be out of office within the next year, probably less than

00:12:33.540 six months. He's either going to resign or he's going to face a no-confidence vote. There's no

00:12:38.780 way he's going to survive all of this. He's lost the CBC. He's lost CTV. Even other major networks

00:12:45.000 are turning on him, and you've never seen this happen that fast. On top of that, people within

00:12:49.260 his own government are turning on him. Christopher Freeland is out, and now the PBO is sounding the

00:12:54.500 alarm. I really believe it's only going to get worse after this. Carney hasn't delivered a single

00:12:59.700 campaign promise. He hasn't gotten a deal with Donald Trump. He hasn't fixed the economy. All

00:13:05.240 he's done is vacation around and do photo ops. He's just like Justin Trudeau. Polyev warned us

00:13:11.300 about this. I really believe if Polyev was in office, we'd have a good deal with Donald Trump.

00:13:16.000 We'd have a better deal with China, and we'd be building pipelines all across the country.

00:13:20.840 There'd be so many pipelines we wouldn't know what to do with all of them. Instead, we have Carney,

00:13:25.480 and not a single pipeline is being built. Think about that for a second. We have more oil than

00:13:31.320 most countries on earth. The only countries that have more oil than Canada are Saudi Arabia and

00:13:36.860 Venezuela, right? We have the resources, the potential, the manpower, the will. It's just the

00:13:44.800 government is in the way, and this needs to end. But I truly hope that Canadians are actually watching

00:13:49.800 these news stories on TV and seeing for themselves that they made the wrong decision. They voted in

00:13:55.420 the wrong government, and this can never happen again. And of course, Canada's in pretty rough

00:14:00.700 shape right now, but I still have hope that things will get better. Talk to you tomorrow, patriots.

Carney’s Budget Officer Has DIRE WARNING

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