CBC： Carney Could Lose His Job Over Budget
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Summary
With the Canada-U.S. trade deal up in smoke, at least for now, all eyes have turned to the upcoming federal budget for a clear path forward through the economic crisis. But can the government find a partner to pass it, or will we go into another election?
Transcript
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I have some great news for you today. The CBC is finally saying the quiet part out loud.
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Mark Carney's government is collapsing and he could be out of office as early as next week
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and Poliev could be in before Christmas. Let's take a look at that and don't forget to stick
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around to the end for some commentary. With the Canada U.S. trade talks up in smoke at least for
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now, all eyes have turned to the upcoming federal budget for a clear path forward through the
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economic crisis chaos. But can the government find a partner to pass it? I hate to even bring
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this up or will we go into another election? Have a listen.
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Canadians cannot afford a 10th costly budget that drives up the price of groceries and housing.
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Will the Prime Minister put partisanship aside and work with us on an affordable budget for
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an affordable life? There will be an affordable budget for an affordable life presented in this
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House on November 4th and we certainly hope the opposition leader will order his troops to vote
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for it instead of ordering the very nervous ones to vote against it and cause a very expensive
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Christmas election here in Canada. That member and the Prime Minister trying to provoke a costly
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election on their costly budget, they're again playing costly games. This leader of the opposition
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understands, as all Canadians do, that they gave us a mandate six months ago for stability, for calm,
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not slogans, solutions. Okay, this budget will come as the economy flails in the wake of the
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tariffs and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklin says the severe impacts are here and monetary policy
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has limited tools to respond. U.S. trade policy remains unpredictable as events over the weekend
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reminded us. There continues to be considerable uncertainty, both about U.S. tariffs and their
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impacts. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual. We need to be humble about our forecasts.
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If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Okay, Tim, I want to start with you on this. I mean,
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Tiff Macklin, it was a pretty bleak assessment of where things are. It's not like a cyclical slowdown.
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This is structural damage and structural change, and interest rates can't help steel. They can't
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help auto. You can cut them to zero, and it's not going to offset it. This is a pretty dark forecast
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from the central bank here. Dark, but also should be illuminating to many at the moment as the saber
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rattling happens around elections. We do need a period of stability. Look, democracy, it's important.
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Elections happen, all of those things, and maybe we have one. We have an accidental election,
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because it doesn't feel like it's one that's going to be deliberately contrived by either the
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government or the opposition, and accidental elections do happen, a la 1980. But look, I think
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there was a lot of words on election night from all of the parties about needing to work together
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into the best interests for the best interests of Canada. That still holds true right now. And part
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of that means giving Canada its own form of stability through until next spring, perhaps.
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But going to an election now just puts us further behind getting a deal done with the U.S., puts us
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further behind bringing relief and investments to Canadians that may be in that budget, as flawed as
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they may be. It just creates more unnecessary chaos. And it challenges parties, quite frankly, too.
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I mean, a lot of provinces have had elections. The Liberal Party itself, not that as somebody with
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conservative backing, I'm too worried about them, but they've gone through it. The conservatives have
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their own challenges at the moment. The NDP, nice packet of seven. That doesn't mean they couldn't do it.
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I just don't see the reality of how it would happen. Well, things... By accident is about the only way.
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Maybe. But, you know, Jordan, I was talking to some people today about where things are.
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The conservatives, there's no way the Pierre Palliev conservatives, with a leadership review
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coming up in January, are going to vote for a Mark Kearney budget or even abstain for a Mark Kearney
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budget. When you can vote by... People can be away.
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Well, but when you can vote by phone from anywhere, it's tough to justify it for that particular
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party. The bloc has its 18 demands, six core demands on the table, which are expensive and
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difficult to meet. So the NDP, this is my question. Don Davies was here last night and said he wants
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to see the budget, but he's an interim leader. And there's leadership ambitions and directional
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disagreements inside the caucus of seven. I mean, I've also heard the NDP are kind of sick of being seen
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as the people who always save the liberals. And I think it's someone else's turn. I mean, how do you see the
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potential math here on this one? Well, look, I mean, I think the NDP and Don said this last night
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when he was here, have been pretty clear. They are in favor broadly of investments that are going to
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help with jobs, with housing, with health care, with a lot of the priorities that they've laid out.
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They do not like austerity, as this government has unfortunately framed the budget up to be.
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And so that's sort of their parameters. And I think that waiting to see what's actually in the
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budget is a move to be recommended to all parties, actually. You know, yes.
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Thoughtful? No. Before we get into these discussions too deeply, let's out, let's like look at what's
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actually on the table. And I think that that's something that would probably meet the nod test
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for most Canadians. So we'll see. We'll see what's in there. The government, I think, is fairly clear
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on what types of things would garner New Democrats support. But I think the bar politically is high
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because they have unfortunately framed this budget up as one that is going to involve sacrifice cuts,
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austerity, call it what you will. And they've been unable so far to tell a really compelling story
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about the investments and the way those are going to benefit Canadians directly right now.
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So that has also put the NDP in a difficult position, I would say.
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I wonder though, Supriya, when you look at, like the government's going to argue for its agenda,
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but when you look at what Trump has done, you look at the job losses and you look at the cost
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of borrowing and the cost of our government is. I mean, how do you come to the conclusion that there
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can be anything other than some form of sacrifice across society? There's going to be need to be
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money poured into economic resilience and economic diversification. That's what Tiff Macklem essentially
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said. That's what all the major banks are essentially saying, that it's going to take fiscal
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policy to do this. But that means other things are going to get squeezed out. I mean, the math is the
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math, is it not? Yeah, it is. And I mean, I think that's kind of the point that the prime
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minister has been making from the jump, right, that we were going to be seeing through uncertain
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economic times. And, you know, his national address last week sort of laid that out in terms of
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sacrificing sacrifices needing to be made. And so I don't think Canadians are like, I think we're prepped
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for a so-called austerity budget or however you want to qualify it. But I think it's also interesting
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that if you are a government and you do have a minority mandate, right, because even though it's
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a very strong minority, right, only three seats or whatever it is shy of a majority, they're still
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in a minority and they need a dance partner to be able to pass this budget. And it strikes me as
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somewhat odd that it was just last Tuesday that Don Davies had said that they hadn't actually met yet.
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And then, you know, later in the week, the prime minister did meet with all of the opposition
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leaders. But if you're if you're crafting a minority budget and you want one of the parties
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to be able to support you, I would imagine that you wouldn't craft that budget in isolation and you
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would be, you know, meeting months in advance quite regularly with some of the opposition leaders
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or a opposition leader at least to sort of see what kind of path forward you have. And that's why I
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think it was really smart of Don Davies yesterday to sort of flip the onus onto the government and say,
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well, you know, they have to craft something that we can support at the end of the day.
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And I think that's, you know, unfortunately true for the government. That's quite right.
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Canadians don't want an election right now. I can completely understand why some liberals might be
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tempted for one. You just need three more seats and boom, you get a majority. But I would caution
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them based on that simply because, you know, if you look at the last election, yeah, the conservatives
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lost yet again, but they made significant inroads with East Asians, South Asians, younger voters.
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And they have incredible message discipline, particularly when it comes to issues of
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affordability and crime. So the liberal messaging, if we were to be plunged into an election would
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presumably be we need a majority mandate. Yeah. But I don't know if that sells as good right now.
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So there you have it. The CBC is admitting that Mark Carney's government is collapsing.
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A new election is coming. And Paul Yev actually has a chance of becoming prime minister.
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We could actually expect a new election to be called next week and Paul Yev to get into office
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before Christmas. Before we go any further, I want to let you know why videos are being censored.
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So if you see this part, let me know in the comment section, like, and make sure you're
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still subscribed. Thanks. Let's get back to the action. Let's continue watching CBC say what
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conservatives like you and me already knew. Yeah, I can't find a liberal who wants an election right
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now, no matter what, you know, polling and other things would tell you. But, you know, sure, all the
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math is the math. As I was saying, but Supriya points out the politics is the politics. And, you know,
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you can see why Mr. Polly Evan, his party wouldn't do anything to help Mark Carney and his party.
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I mean, where do you see this potentially going? Well, if I pull from, you know, my colleague Stuart Benson,
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he had a story that we ran yesterday about the opposition parties, they don't necessarily have
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the polling and the numbers behind them. Yes, like, you know, the voter intention, it's close
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between the conservatives and the liberals. But, you know, in terms of who people prefer as a prime
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minister, there is a real massive gulf between Mark Carney and Pierre Polly. And everybody is going
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to, and how you frame it is if you're going to blame somebody for sending Canadians to
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the polls. That's why everybody's uttering the words Christmas election. It's, they're using it as
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a boogeyman. They want to strike, you know, a Sinterklaas fear into everybody about what would happen if
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you actually go to the polls and say, you're going to have to wear this, you're going to pick, you're
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going to have to take the blame. Nobody wants to do this again. And the opposition parties will have to
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tell everybody in the country why we did this to you. But I do think that to everybody else's point, there is
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still that messaging issue. You know, tomorrow, Pierre Polyev is going to have a, what's it called?
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No more sacrifices event for youth to directly appeal to young people in the setting himself up
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as, you know, an exact foil to what Mark Carney said last week about sacrifice. When you're, when that's
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the message that you have to go out on is, especially to the younger people who are looking to park their
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vote, who may not be as, you know, concerned about some of the things that older voters are going to
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be caring about. It's, this is a government, this liberal government tells, is telling you specifically
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that your life is going to be more difficult. Your life is going to be harder. You have to sacrifice
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because of choices that everybody else older than you made.
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Yeah, it's, it is going to be an interesting, Tim, the battle of the narratives here because,
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well, one, just as a little detail, the election rebates don't come till January, maybe February.
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So that may affect, that matters for especially the NDP and the bloc to a degree, maybe not the
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conservatives or the liberals right now. But the competing narratives on this, you know, we played
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that clip of the back and forth between Pierre Polyev and Stephen McKinnon. They want, the conservatives are
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caring for an affordability budget. They want the deficit way down. They want spending reigned way
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in. But you heard the Bank of Canada, right, saying you got to spend or to help, like it is
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counter cyclical, you know, in terms of what they're arguing for and what the banks and the central
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But it goes back to the point Cherelle made and you made earlier about their,
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Supriya made about the NDP. They're, they're making the government make the case, right?
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Uh, and Kearney is going to come with something that enough of the opposition, they may not vote
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for it, but they're equally going to be in a difficult place if they were to go out on the
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hustings and explain, why did you vote against this? Why did you vote against this? You know,
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this is very reminiscent of what happened in some of the early Harper governments when they were
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getting their feet of the saber rattling and the, uh, the gamesmanship that happened. Then, whoa,
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lo and behold, also all of a sudden polls would appear saying 85% of Canadians don't want an
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election. And if the election happened, they blame it squarely on, uh, the liberals in the day. I
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suspect we're about to see all of those polls come to the fore at the moment. So I think other forces
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are going to put this in a place where, unless there is clearly some clumsiness in the management
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of parliament, that a way will be found to go forward. Because I really do not think the Canadian
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public and yes, when we're in elections, there's lots of data to show that we don't care that we
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don't, we don't like we went into it, but we have to live with it. But I don't think they are going to
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be kind to those who put them in this particular place, particularly if they're in Ontario, where
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they've had an election in our province, Newfoundland and Labrador, where they, this would be the fourth
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election. Uh, there've been other this year, there are other jurisdictions that, uh, that have had
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elections this year. People are tired. And the last point in all of this, you know, if you're the
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conservatives, the NDP or the block, less so for the block, um, if you want to take advantage of
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this, you've got to have motivated workers and people that are going to go out there and do this.
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People are tired. The, the ground troops are tired. So all of that is in the back there.
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Yeah. Jordan, it's going back to the austerity phrase. I mean, what, what would, what would constitute
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austerity do you think of this budget? Because the promise has been transfers to provinces,
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transfers to individuals, ring fenced, uh, the social programs ring fence, not going to be cut.
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Uh, yes, attrition and downsizing in the civil service, though there were comments today by
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Minister Champagne that would suggest a job cut above and beyond what normal attrition and retirement
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might do. What, what would the threshold have to be, do you think for the NDP for them to say,
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we're out? Well, we're going to have to see, but look, here's what I'll say is that we have
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a prime minister who did not run on a massive ramp up of defense spending and committed to it,
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who did not run on significant cuts to the public service and committed to it. Um, and, and has not,
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in fact, uh, delivered on the elbows up promise that he made to Canadians during the election.
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So I think that the challenge for the government in terms of how they craft their offer and make that
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appealing to potential dance partners is that they need to answer some of those political questions
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before they get into the math of it. And to your question about, is the math, the math? Well,
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not really because the government also of course has the option of looking at revenue. Um, a lot of
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the original calculations that were involved in their plans banked on counter tariff revenue that
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we now no longer have. We've dropped the digital service tax, that's revenue. The Kearney government
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put forward a tax cut that by the way did overwhelmingly benefit wealthier households that nobody asked for and
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that everyone has already forgotten. So these things are also constraining the choices that
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the government has going forward. And those are choices of their own making. So it is up to them
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to figure out if their budget is going to meet the test of Canadians. And it's not just about, are they
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talking about growing the economy and making it more independent from the United States? Because if you're
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a Canadian who doesn't feel like you're getting a fair share of this economy, that message is not going to be
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enough for you. So they have to deal also with some of those quality measures within those offerings,
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if they're going to be successful. But just how do they do that with the way the economy is like,
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I take your point that they've cut like five taxes since, uh, since, you know, their capital gains
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inclusion gone, DST gone, carbon tax gone, uh, and the income tax cut, uh, which was, you know, billions
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of dollars out of your revenue stream. So that widened that challenge and these stacked the defense
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spending on top of it. But now the economic situation has gotten so much more severe.
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Then even it was, you know, contemplated, I think in the election. So things, things have changed
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pretty dramatically for whoever would have been prime minister, no matter what they ran on,
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I guess is what I'm grappling with. Like, how do you craft something that satisfies the political
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demands while dealing with the economic reality? Well, I think the political demands that they're
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hearing from the opposition, there are some common threads through all of them. They want
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things that are going to tackle the affordability crisis. They want to deal with the housing crisis.
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They want to deal with the precarity and the insecurity that people are feeling at an economic
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level on things like housing. So I actually don't think it's that complicated to meet some of those
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tests. The challenge for the government is that a lot of the measures that they've put forward to
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date are very long-term. They're very distant in terms of the impact that they're going to feel.
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And when you're putting forward a plan that relies on taking public money and putting it into
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a lot of private projects, there is going to be a gap there. You've got to figure out how you're going to
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tell Canadians that not only are they getting value for money, but that they're going to get,
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they're going to see some benefit in their lives immediately on some of these things.
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Yeah, but that's a circle they need to score. Yeah, the long-term stuff. When the prime minister
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talks about moving at a speed, we thought it was impossible. That's like still eight to ten
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year horizons on a lot of things, right? Not like eight to ten weeks. Okay, we're out of time.
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I want to thank you all. So there you have it. CBC actually admitted in more or less words that
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Carney is out and Polyev, he's in. And of course they didn't say it quite as directly as I did,
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but that's what I'm getting from the episode. Let's face it, Carney is screwed. He failed on
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his one big campaign promise, his big major platform promise, get a deal with Donald Trump.
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Did he get a deal? No, there's no deal. It's been almost eight months and there's no deal. All Mark
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Carney and his drinking buddy Doug Ford have accomplished is pissing Donald Trump off and making him mad
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and angrier at us than he already was. And that's quite a feat. Like I said in a previous video,
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the only reason Carney got in was because of Trump. And now the main reason he's going to be out is
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because of Trump. Even if there's some way for Carney to survive the budget vote, I truly believe Carney
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will be out of office sooner than later, hopefully next year when the polls are a little bit higher for
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Polyev. It's only a matter of time before Polyev gets into office. Polyev is going to go down south and
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immediately, right away, get a good deal with Donald Trump, get both of our economies back on
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track. And then we're off to the races. Once again, thanks for tuning in.
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Hope you have a great night and I'll talk to you tomorrow, Patriots.