Mark Slapinski

00:00:00.000 I have some great news for you today. The CBC is finally saying the quiet part out loud.

00:00:05.360 Mark Carney's government is collapsing and he could be out of office as early as next week

00:00:09.680 and Poliev could be in before Christmas. Let's take a look at that and don't forget to stick

00:00:14.700 around to the end for some commentary. With the Canada U.S. trade talks up in smoke at least for

00:00:19.220 now, all eyes have turned to the upcoming federal budget for a clear path forward through the

00:00:23.400 economic crisis chaos. But can the government find a partner to pass it? I hate to even bring

00:00:29.540 this up or will we go into another election? Have a listen.

00:00:32.780 Canadians cannot afford a 10th costly budget that drives up the price of groceries and housing.

00:00:41.480 Will the Prime Minister put partisanship aside and work with us on an affordable budget for

00:00:46.940 an affordable life? There will be an affordable budget for an affordable life presented in this

00:00:52.220 House on November 4th and we certainly hope the opposition leader will order his troops to vote

00:00:58.240 for it instead of ordering the very nervous ones to vote against it and cause a very expensive

00:01:04.120 Christmas election here in Canada. That member and the Prime Minister trying to provoke a costly

00:01:10.420 election on their costly budget, they're again playing costly games. This leader of the opposition

00:01:16.520 understands, as all Canadians do, that they gave us a mandate six months ago for stability, for calm,

00:01:24.860 not slogans, solutions. Okay, this budget will come as the economy flails in the wake of the

00:01:31.180 tariffs and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklin says the severe impacts are here and monetary policy

00:01:36.840 has limited tools to respond. U.S. trade policy remains unpredictable as events over the weekend

00:01:44.280 reminded us. There continues to be considerable uncertainty, both about U.S. tariffs and their

00:01:50.660 impacts. The range of possible outcomes is wider than usual. We need to be humble about our forecasts.

00:01:58.500 If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. Okay, Tim, I want to start with you on this. I mean,

00:02:04.940 Tiff Macklin, it was a pretty bleak assessment of where things are. It's not like a cyclical slowdown.

00:02:10.740 This is structural damage and structural change, and interest rates can't help steel. They can't

00:02:16.000 help auto. You can cut them to zero, and it's not going to offset it. This is a pretty dark forecast

00:02:22.000 from the central bank here. Dark, but also should be illuminating to many at the moment as the saber

00:02:28.860 rattling happens around elections. We do need a period of stability. Look, democracy, it's important.

00:02:38.020 Elections happen, all of those things, and maybe we have one. We have an accidental election,

00:02:43.100 because it doesn't feel like it's one that's going to be deliberately contrived by either the

00:02:48.420 government or the opposition, and accidental elections do happen, a la 1980. But look, I think

00:02:54.520 there was a lot of words on election night from all of the parties about needing to work together

00:02:59.660 into the best interests for the best interests of Canada. That still holds true right now. And part

00:03:05.620 of that means giving Canada its own form of stability through until next spring, perhaps.

00:03:14.860 But going to an election now just puts us further behind getting a deal done with the U.S., puts us

00:03:20.000 further behind bringing relief and investments to Canadians that may be in that budget, as flawed as

00:03:27.000 they may be. It just creates more unnecessary chaos. And it challenges parties, quite frankly, too.

00:03:34.080 I mean, a lot of provinces have had elections. The Liberal Party itself, not that as somebody with

00:03:40.640 conservative backing, I'm too worried about them, but they've gone through it. The conservatives have

00:03:44.600 their own challenges at the moment. The NDP, nice packet of seven. That doesn't mean they couldn't do it.

00:03:50.060 I just don't see the reality of how it would happen. Well, things... By accident is about the only way.

00:03:57.140 Maybe. But, you know, Jordan, I was talking to some people today about where things are.

00:04:01.980 The conservatives, there's no way the Pierre Palliev conservatives, with a leadership review

00:04:05.420 coming up in January, are going to vote for a Mark Kearney budget or even abstain for a Mark Kearney

00:04:09.420 budget. When you can vote by... People can be away.

00:04:10.900 Well, but when you can vote by phone from anywhere, it's tough to justify it for that particular

00:04:16.920 party. The bloc has its 18 demands, six core demands on the table, which are expensive and

00:04:20.740 difficult to meet. So the NDP, this is my question. Don Davies was here last night and said he wants

00:04:25.120 to see the budget, but he's an interim leader. And there's leadership ambitions and directional

00:04:30.000 disagreements inside the caucus of seven. I mean, I've also heard the NDP are kind of sick of being seen

00:04:35.480 as the people who always save the liberals. And I think it's someone else's turn. I mean, how do you see the

00:04:39.860 potential math here on this one? Well, look, I mean, I think the NDP and Don said this last night

00:04:45.040 when he was here, have been pretty clear. They are in favor broadly of investments that are going to

00:04:50.900 help with jobs, with housing, with health care, with a lot of the priorities that they've laid out.

00:04:55.020 They do not like austerity, as this government has unfortunately framed the budget up to be.

00:05:01.640 And so that's sort of their parameters. And I think that waiting to see what's actually in the

00:05:07.060 budget is a move to be recommended to all parties, actually. You know, yes.

00:05:12.240 Thoughtful? No. Before we get into these discussions too deeply, let's out, let's like look at what's

00:05:18.000 actually on the table. And I think that that's something that would probably meet the nod test

00:05:22.040 for most Canadians. So we'll see. We'll see what's in there. The government, I think, is fairly clear

00:05:27.000 on what types of things would garner New Democrats support. But I think the bar politically is high

00:05:31.920 because they have unfortunately framed this budget up as one that is going to involve sacrifice cuts,

00:05:38.700 austerity, call it what you will. And they've been unable so far to tell a really compelling story

00:05:43.660 about the investments and the way those are going to benefit Canadians directly right now.

00:05:47.520 So that has also put the NDP in a difficult position, I would say.

00:05:51.300 I wonder though, Supriya, when you look at, like the government's going to argue for its agenda,

00:05:55.520 but when you look at what Trump has done, you look at the job losses and you look at the cost

00:05:59.100 of borrowing and the cost of our government is. I mean, how do you come to the conclusion that there

00:06:04.120 can be anything other than some form of sacrifice across society? There's going to be need to be

00:06:08.320 money poured into economic resilience and economic diversification. That's what Tiff Macklem essentially

00:06:14.640 said. That's what all the major banks are essentially saying, that it's going to take fiscal

00:06:18.300 policy to do this. But that means other things are going to get squeezed out. I mean, the math is the

00:06:24.760 math, is it not? Yeah, it is. And I mean, I think that's kind of the point that the prime

00:06:29.720 minister has been making from the jump, right, that we were going to be seeing through uncertain

00:06:33.980 economic times. And, you know, his national address last week sort of laid that out in terms of

00:06:39.500 sacrificing sacrifices needing to be made. And so I don't think Canadians are like, I think we're prepped

00:06:47.420 for a so-called austerity budget or however you want to qualify it. But I think it's also interesting

00:06:52.880 that if you are a government and you do have a minority mandate, right, because even though it's

00:06:57.520 a very strong minority, right, only three seats or whatever it is shy of a majority, they're still

00:07:02.540 in a minority and they need a dance partner to be able to pass this budget. And it strikes me as

00:07:07.220 somewhat odd that it was just last Tuesday that Don Davies had said that they hadn't actually met yet.

00:07:14.840 And then, you know, later in the week, the prime minister did meet with all of the opposition

00:07:18.740 leaders. But if you're if you're crafting a minority budget and you want one of the parties

00:07:23.000 to be able to support you, I would imagine that you wouldn't craft that budget in isolation and you

00:07:29.000 would be, you know, meeting months in advance quite regularly with some of the opposition leaders

00:07:35.120 or a opposition leader at least to sort of see what kind of path forward you have. And that's why I

00:07:41.140 think it was really smart of Don Davies yesterday to sort of flip the onus onto the government and say,

00:07:47.260 well, you know, they have to craft something that we can support at the end of the day.

00:07:51.520 And I think that's, you know, unfortunately true for the government. That's quite right.

00:07:56.240 Canadians don't want an election right now. I can completely understand why some liberals might be

00:08:01.040 tempted for one. You just need three more seats and boom, you get a majority. But I would caution

00:08:05.680 them based on that simply because, you know, if you look at the last election, yeah, the conservatives

00:08:10.900 lost yet again, but they made significant inroads with East Asians, South Asians, younger voters.

00:08:16.380 And they have incredible message discipline, particularly when it comes to issues of

00:08:22.200 affordability and crime. So the liberal messaging, if we were to be plunged into an election would

00:08:28.300 presumably be we need a majority mandate. Yeah. But I don't know if that sells as good right now.

00:08:34.580 So there you have it. The CBC is admitting that Mark Carney's government is collapsing.

00:08:38.520 A new election is coming. And Paul Yev actually has a chance of becoming prime minister.

00:08:42.940 We could actually expect a new election to be called next week and Paul Yev to get into office

00:08:48.240 before Christmas. Before we go any further, I want to let you know why videos are being censored.

00:08:53.000 So if you see this part, let me know in the comment section, like, and make sure you're

00:08:56.860 still subscribed. Thanks. Let's get back to the action. Let's continue watching CBC say what

00:09:01.680 conservatives like you and me already knew. Yeah, I can't find a liberal who wants an election right

00:09:06.960 now, no matter what, you know, polling and other things would tell you. But, you know, sure, all the

00:09:10.920 math is the math. As I was saying, but Supriya points out the politics is the politics. And, you know,

00:09:15.840 you can see why Mr. Polly Evan, his party wouldn't do anything to help Mark Carney and his party.

00:09:20.680 I mean, where do you see this potentially going? Well, if I pull from, you know, my colleague Stuart Benson,

00:09:25.820 he had a story that we ran yesterday about the opposition parties, they don't necessarily have

00:09:31.560 the polling and the numbers behind them. Yes, like, you know, the voter intention, it's close

00:09:37.980 between the conservatives and the liberals. But, you know, in terms of who people prefer as a prime

00:09:43.380 minister, there is a real massive gulf between Mark Carney and Pierre Polly. And everybody is going

00:09:50.900 to, and how you frame it is if you're going to blame somebody for sending Canadians to

00:09:55.780 the polls. That's why everybody's uttering the words Christmas election. It's, they're using it as

00:10:00.040 a boogeyman. They want to strike, you know, a Sinterklaas fear into everybody about what would happen if

00:10:07.060 you actually go to the polls and say, you're going to have to wear this, you're going to pick, you're

00:10:12.040 going to have to take the blame. Nobody wants to do this again. And the opposition parties will have to

00:10:16.140 tell everybody in the country why we did this to you. But I do think that to everybody else's point, there is

00:10:23.720 still that messaging issue. You know, tomorrow, Pierre Polyev is going to have a, what's it called?

00:10:28.480 No more sacrifices event for youth to directly appeal to young people in the setting himself up

00:10:36.600 as, you know, an exact foil to what Mark Carney said last week about sacrifice. When you're, when that's

00:10:43.100 the message that you have to go out on is, especially to the younger people who are looking to park their

00:10:48.720 vote, who may not be as, you know, concerned about some of the things that older voters are going to

00:10:56.160 be caring about. It's, this is a government, this liberal government tells, is telling you specifically

00:11:01.680 that your life is going to be more difficult. Your life is going to be harder. You have to sacrifice

00:11:06.300 because of choices that everybody else older than you made.

00:11:09.400 Yeah, it's, it is going to be an interesting, Tim, the battle of the narratives here because,

00:11:15.840 well, one, just as a little detail, the election rebates don't come till January, maybe February.

00:11:22.080 So that may affect, that matters for especially the NDP and the bloc to a degree, maybe not the

00:11:27.140 conservatives or the liberals right now. But the competing narratives on this, you know, we played

00:11:31.480 that clip of the back and forth between Pierre Polyev and Stephen McKinnon. They want, the conservatives are

00:11:36.940 caring for an affordability budget. They want the deficit way down. They want spending reigned way

00:11:40.380 in. But you heard the Bank of Canada, right, saying you got to spend or to help, like it is

00:11:46.100 counter cyclical, you know, in terms of what they're arguing for and what the banks and the central

00:11:51.800 bank are recommending right now.

00:11:53.540 But it goes back to the point Cherelle made and you made earlier about their,

00:11:59.840 Supriya made about the NDP. They're, they're making the government make the case, right?

00:12:04.660 Uh, and Kearney is going to come with something that enough of the opposition, they may not vote

00:12:10.900 for it, but they're equally going to be in a difficult place if they were to go out on the

00:12:14.340 hustings and explain, why did you vote against this? Why did you vote against this? You know,

00:12:18.780 this is very reminiscent of what happened in some of the early Harper governments when they were

00:12:24.840 getting their feet of the saber rattling and the, uh, the gamesmanship that happened. Then, whoa,

00:12:31.500 lo and behold, also all of a sudden polls would appear saying 85% of Canadians don't want an

00:12:37.180 election. And if the election happened, they blame it squarely on, uh, the liberals in the day. I

00:12:42.140 suspect we're about to see all of those polls come to the fore at the moment. So I think other forces

00:12:47.360 are going to put this in a place where, unless there is clearly some clumsiness in the management

00:12:53.340 of parliament, that a way will be found to go forward. Because I really do not think the Canadian 0.99

00:12:59.860 public and yes, when we're in elections, there's lots of data to show that we don't care that we

00:13:04.340 don't, we don't like we went into it, but we have to live with it. But I don't think they are going to

00:13:08.580 be kind to those who put them in this particular place, particularly if they're in Ontario, where

00:13:16.100 they've had an election in our province, Newfoundland and Labrador, where they, this would be the fourth

00:13:21.220 election. Uh, there've been other this year, there are other jurisdictions that, uh, that have had

00:13:26.500 elections this year. People are tired. And the last point in all of this, you know, if you're the

00:13:31.220 conservatives, the NDP or the block, less so for the block, um, if you want to take advantage of

00:13:36.580 this, you've got to have motivated workers and people that are going to go out there and do this.

00:13:40.420 People are tired. The, the ground troops are tired. So all of that is in the back there.

00:13:46.180 Yeah. Jordan, it's going back to the austerity phrase. I mean, what, what would, what would constitute

00:13:52.340 austerity do you think of this budget? Because the promise has been transfers to provinces,

00:13:56.740 transfers to individuals, ring fenced, uh, the social programs ring fence, not going to be cut.

00:14:01.540 Uh, yes, attrition and downsizing in the civil service, though there were comments today by

00:14:06.260 Minister Champagne that would suggest a job cut above and beyond what normal attrition and retirement

00:14:12.100 might do. What, what would the threshold have to be, do you think for the NDP for them to say,

00:14:17.620 we're out? Well, we're going to have to see, but look, here's what I'll say is that we have

00:14:22.260 a prime minister who did not run on a massive ramp up of defense spending and committed to it,

00:14:29.060 who did not run on significant cuts to the public service and committed to it. Um, and, and has not,

00:14:35.140 in fact, uh, delivered on the elbows up promise that he made to Canadians during the election.

00:14:40.180 So I think that the challenge for the government in terms of how they craft their offer and make that

00:14:45.540 appealing to potential dance partners is that they need to answer some of those political questions

00:14:51.060 before they get into the math of it. And to your question about, is the math, the math? Well,

00:14:55.060 not really because the government also of course has the option of looking at revenue. Um, a lot of

00:15:00.660 the original calculations that were involved in their plans banked on counter tariff revenue that

00:15:05.940 we now no longer have. We've dropped the digital service tax, that's revenue. The Kearney government

00:15:11.380 put forward a tax cut that by the way did overwhelmingly benefit wealthier households that nobody asked for and

00:15:17.300 that everyone has already forgotten. So these things are also constraining the choices that

00:15:21.780 the government has going forward. And those are choices of their own making. So it is up to them

00:15:26.820 to figure out if their budget is going to meet the test of Canadians. And it's not just about, are they

00:15:32.740 talking about growing the economy and making it more independent from the United States? Because if you're

00:15:37.140 a Canadian who doesn't feel like you're getting a fair share of this economy, that message is not going to be

00:15:42.260 enough for you. So they have to deal also with some of those quality measures within those offerings,

00:15:48.100 if they're going to be successful. But just how do they do that with the way the economy is like,

00:15:52.660 I take your point that they've cut like five taxes since, uh, since, you know, their capital gains

00:15:57.220 inclusion gone, DST gone, carbon tax gone, uh, and the income tax cut, uh, which was, you know, billions

00:16:04.260 of dollars out of your revenue stream. So that widened that challenge and these stacked the defense

00:16:07.780 spending on top of it. But now the economic situation has gotten so much more severe.

00:16:12.260 Then even it was, you know, contemplated, I think in the election. So things, things have changed

00:16:17.940 pretty dramatically for whoever would have been prime minister, no matter what they ran on,

00:16:21.700 I guess is what I'm grappling with. Like, how do you craft something that satisfies the political

00:16:26.660 demands while dealing with the economic reality? Well, I think the political demands that they're

00:16:30.420 hearing from the opposition, there are some common threads through all of them. They want

00:16:34.660 things that are going to tackle the affordability crisis. They want to deal with the housing crisis.

00:16:38.900 They want to deal with the precarity and the insecurity that people are feeling at an economic

00:16:43.140 level on things like housing. So I actually don't think it's that complicated to meet some of those

00:16:48.020 tests. The challenge for the government is that a lot of the measures that they've put forward to

00:16:51.300 date are very long-term. They're very distant in terms of the impact that they're going to feel.

00:16:55.940 And when you're putting forward a plan that relies on taking public money and putting it into

00:17:00.660 a lot of private projects, there is going to be a gap there. You've got to figure out how you're going to

00:17:05.540 tell Canadians that not only are they getting value for money, but that they're going to get,

00:17:08.820 they're going to see some benefit in their lives immediately on some of these things.

00:17:12.340 Yeah, but that's a circle they need to score. Yeah, the long-term stuff. When the prime minister

00:17:16.500 talks about moving at a speed, we thought it was impossible. That's like still eight to ten

00:17:20.420 year horizons on a lot of things, right? Not like eight to ten weeks. Okay, we're out of time.

00:17:24.580 I want to thank you all. So there you have it. CBC actually admitted in more or less words that

00:17:29.300 Carney is out and Polyev, he's in. And of course they didn't say it quite as directly as I did,

00:17:35.300 but that's what I'm getting from the episode. Let's face it, Carney is screwed. He failed on 0.97

00:17:39.780 his one big campaign promise, his big major platform promise, get a deal with Donald Trump.

00:17:46.340 Did he get a deal? No, there's no deal. It's been almost eight months and there's no deal. All Mark

00:17:52.420 Carney and his drinking buddy Doug Ford have accomplished is pissing Donald Trump off and making him mad

00:17:58.580 and angrier at us than he already was. And that's quite a feat. Like I said in a previous video,

00:18:03.540 the only reason Carney got in was because of Trump. And now the main reason he's going to be out is

00:18:08.740 because of Trump. Even if there's some way for Carney to survive the budget vote, I truly believe Carney

00:18:13.620 will be out of office sooner than later, hopefully next year when the polls are a little bit higher for

00:18:18.100 Polyev. It's only a matter of time before Polyev gets into office. Polyev is going to go down south and

00:18:23.460 immediately, right away, get a good deal with Donald Trump, get both of our economies back on

00:18:28.420 track. And then we're off to the races. Once again, thanks for tuning in.

00:18:32.660 Hope you have a great night and I'll talk to you tomorrow, Patriots.

CBC： Carney Could Lose His Job Over Budget

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