Mark Slapinski

00:00:00.000 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet with American President Donald Trump tomorrow

00:00:03.840 in a high-level meeting regarding the economy. Even CTV admits that elbows up has failed and

00:00:10.900 Mark Carney is unlikely to get a good deal. Let's check that out together.

00:00:14.540 Let's bring in our front bench with me tonight, former New Brunswick Liberal Premier Brian Gallant.

00:00:18.320 He's the CEO of Space Canada. Former Conservative Deputy Leader Lisa Raid is here. She's the Vice

00:00:22.960 Chair and Managing Director of Global Investment Banking at CIBC. CTV News political analyst and

00:00:28.520 former NDP leader Tom Mulcair is with us, as is the Toronto Star's Queen's Park Bureau Chief Rob Benzie.

00:00:33.600 Hi, everybody. It's good to see you. Brian, I'll start with you. We just spoke to Kelly Craft,

00:00:38.140 who was the Trump ambassador during the first term of the U.S. president. And she was very specific

00:00:44.880 about sort of look to what other countries have had to agree to, to even think about what, you know,

00:00:50.400 Canada might have to do, kind of more intimating that there's more ground we could see, we would

00:00:55.180 have to cede to even arrive at some sort of reduction in the tariffs that do exist right

00:00:59.440 now. What's the implication of that, do you think, for the Carney team?

00:01:03.360 I think she's Trump's ambassador on that panel as well. I mean, she was pretty firm and, frankly,

00:01:11.360 I think a bit ridiculous on some things. I was cringing listening to it. First off, 0.84

00:01:17.580 I just want to say the idea that the U.S. can just bully everyone around,

00:01:21.180 it's the largest economy, so can it bully people? Sure, that can happen. But the repercussions of

00:01:26.220 that are important as well, right? The idea that the country that's supposed to be the leader of

00:01:30.740 the free world is bullying everyone, I don't think sets us up very well for geopolitical tensions in

00:01:36.780 the future. But anyways, that's not necessarily what we're all talking about, because we're all

00:01:40.340 focused on the immediacy of the tariffs and sort of the economic implications. So second,

00:01:46.520 for Carney and co going to Washington tomorrow, yeah, I mean, I think there's no question that

00:01:53.180 the backdrop of all of this is the idea that they have been somewhat successful. Some countries have

00:01:59.360 given in and some countries have given some concessions or made promises of big investments.

00:02:05.680 So that's the backdrop. Now, Canada is a different position because we are their most important trading

00:02:11.540 partner. So we can certainly hurt them a little more if ever we want to stand our ground. And it really,

00:02:17.800 and it comes to, if it comes to that, more so than other countries would be able to. So that puts us a

00:02:23.680 little bit in a different position. Also, I'd like to think, I'm not sure it's worth anything nowadays,

00:02:29.100 but I'd like to think that Americans, the public have a soft spot for Canada for many reasons. We don't have

00:02:36.680 to all go through it in the panel here, but our history and our economic ties and even our family

00:02:41.180 ties and the list goes on. So look, I think that is the backdrop, though. And I know you asked that

00:02:47.000 question. And frankly, it's something that the Carney team is going to have to be wrestling with as they

00:02:51.380 try to go to Washington tomorrow. Not sure they'll get a direct win out of the Oval Office. I'm not sure

00:02:56.240 anyone ever does coming out of the Oval Office, but hopefully it builds ties, relationships, and the

00:03:02.080 conversation keeps going in a positive direction. Lisa, Brian's right that it is cringy and ridiculous 0.94

00:03:09.900 that the idea that the U.S. could kind of bully everyone into the trading relationship at once,

00:03:15.480 but that is what's happened. Those countries that have arrived at deals with the United States have

00:03:19.920 all agreed to base tariffs that they wouldn't have dreamed of a year ago. Trump has, we don't have

00:03:26.280 the weight of the world behind us. Only China levied any kind of counter tariff that's commensurate in

00:03:31.240 any fashion. We're the only other country that did. Like, what kind of negotiating position does

00:03:34.840 that leave us in? Everything that we've tried was wrong. So there you have it. Even CTV admits that

00:03:40.880 everything Carney has done has failed. Carney lied to us. He said he was the chosen one, the only one

00:03:47.560 that could deal with Donald Trump. Seven months later, even his own paid propagandists are calling

00:03:52.800 him out on live television. You can't make this stuff up. Because we seem to be in a bad position right

00:03:58.060 now. And the prime minister going down to see Mr. Trump, it's going to be a difficult after

00:04:04.200 discussion because Mr. Trump will take what he wants from it. He'll say that Mr. Carney is a very

00:04:10.040 nice man and I like Mark. And he'll say all those lovely platitudes. But he's also going to point out

00:04:15.800 once again that Canadian economy is hurting and that he's stealing business from us. And the reason why

00:04:21.940 that is so difficult for us in Canada is it introduces uncertainty into investment in Canada.

00:04:29.540 It's not just the tariffs, Fashi, that are hurting us. It's the fact that other companies are saying,

00:04:34.680 what's next for you guys up there? What else is he going to do to you? And quite frankly,

00:04:39.360 the risk associated with the uncertainty around Canada, we may as well just work with the United

00:04:43.920 States directly. And that's the kind of impact it's having now. It's not just on the tariff

00:04:49.340 industries. It's on everything that you could possibly think about, just like the announcement

00:04:54.780 today, 25 percent on medium and heavy duty trucks going into the United States. Tom Mulcair kindly

00:05:03.000 explained to me what that was before we actually came to air. Before that, I didn't even know it was

00:05:08.040 a possibility. So, you know, expect the unexpected, but serious meeting. Trump's going to use it for his

00:05:14.220 own purposes. And he's also going to try to spank us on foreign policy, tomorrow being October 7,

00:05:19.340 which is a very difficult day for a lot of people in this world.

00:05:24.580 And to be fair, this woman makes a good point. This is not the right time for Carney to be

00:05:28.820 recognizing Palestine as a state. We're literally in the middle of one of the biggest trade wars

00:05:33.460 we've seen in recent times, and this is only adding fuel to the fire. We need to settle this

00:05:38.480 dispute with the United States before interfering in Middle Eastern politics. I think we can all agree

00:05:43.540 on that. I think to Lisa's point, Tom, right, like even you heard in those comments from Trump,

00:05:49.060 they just happened right before we went to air, right? The thing he zeroed in on when it came to

00:05:53.200 tariffs was the impact he says it is having on what Lisa just described, right, that companies are

00:05:58.300 picking up and moving to the United States. It's not true in its entirety, but aspects of companies

00:06:02.740 here, look at the auto sector, for example, are delaying operations that we're going to go ahead

00:06:07.400 here and instead pursuing ones in the United States. What does that tell you about sort of

00:06:12.780 the playing field tomorrow? And how risky is this politically for the prime minister,

00:06:17.520 even if he doesn't have another choice but to go, obviously? Yeah, right. And I do think that it

00:06:22.420 shows that the Americans are very good at this game. They might have been a little bit rusty. We

00:06:27.040 weren't always sure what Trump was going to be up to. But the question about those trucks,

00:06:31.060 that zeroes in not just on a Canadian industry. It zeroes on a Canadian industry in Quebec at a very

00:06:36.880 fraught time for the votes of the federal liberals in Quebec. The PACCAR factory just north of Montreal

00:06:42.900 puts out all of the Peterborough, sorry, Peter Bilt and the Kenworth trucks. It's a huge employer.

00:06:49.420 These are great jobs. They pay super well. And what Trump was saying was, you know, 20, 30 years ago,

00:06:55.700 they used to build those factories in Canada and now we're bringing them back. If I were working there,

00:06:59.840 I'd be very afraid of what that meant. Because it's true that that factory was built with tons of

00:07:04.900 Quebec government money. It was brought in and there was a whole tussle with other people that

00:07:09.480 wanted it. And Quebec got it. And it's one of the very few things we have. You know, the auto industry,

00:07:13.900 you know, right across the highway, there used to be a big GM plant. That's long gone. And so Ontario's

00:07:19.760 got pretty well the whole industry. That's basically what's left in Quebec. And Trump zeroed in,

00:07:24.860 without naming it, zeroed in on that idea. Over the weekend, we were so ham-fisted talking about the F-35s.

00:07:31.020 So we don't really have to buy them as if that was the top of our threat list. And the person that we

00:07:36.700 sent out to explain it, a junior minister of defense, had so much trouble getting anything

00:07:41.780 out about the F-35s. If you're going to make a threat and you're going to get to the table with

00:07:45.760 Trump, you better be darn sure that you're going to be able to play right through. I don't think that

00:07:51.100 anybody in Washington cared one bit about what we were saying about the F-35s. We'll see what comes

00:07:55.600 out of this meeting tomorrow. But I like Lisa's point that coming on October 7th, it might give

00:08:00.120 Trump the occasion to talk about what Canada did, which, as far as the Americans were concerned,

00:08:05.240 went against their best interests and those of Israel. I don't think they should overplay their 1.00

00:08:09.580 hand because Trump wants to be seen right now as the peacemaker. And he's still hoping, I guess,

00:08:13.980 to get his Nobel. But for Canada right now, this is a very difficult time. And it's not getting easier.

00:08:19.340 This all has to dovetail with the renegotiation of the Canada-US-Mexico trade deal,

00:08:23.100 and anything that comes out of tomorrow's meeting, I think it's going to have a hard time

00:08:27.300 meeting that test. Let me translate that for you. Carney is screwed. When you have a CTV panel,

00:08:33.320 a left-wing CTV panel, calling you out on the evening of an important trade meeting,

00:08:38.840 you know you're in trouble. And Carney, he's in a lot of trouble. I'm going to be straight. In the

00:08:43.740 short term, this is bad for Canada. And as a patriot, someone who loves this country,

00:08:48.780 and as a decent human being, I want what's best for Canada, regardless of who's in power.

00:08:54.380 However, if tomorrow's meeting goes as bad as I predict it will, there's going to be some issues.

00:08:59.500 However, those are going to be short-term issues, and there's going to be some long-term benefit.

00:09:03.900 And I'll explain that later in the video. If you're enjoying this episode so far,

00:09:07.760 don't forget to like and subscribe.

00:09:08.980 I started the segment off, Benzi, by talking about that letter from the leader of the Federal

00:09:13.940 Conservatives, which kind of speaks to, in more general terms, the pressure here at home, right,

00:09:18.580 the sort of political context here at home. There's what's going to happen there, but also how it plays

00:09:23.240 here. Is it enough if nothing worse happens at the end of this meeting, if there aren't any additional

00:09:28.640 tariffs, or there isn't, you know, some throwing away of Kuzma to some degree? Or does the Prime Minister

00:09:33.420 need to come back and say, I actually am able to reduce, let's say, steel and aluminum tariffs by half,

00:09:38.980 something like that? He's going to have to show a deliverable at some point, Vashi. I mean,

00:09:43.680 I mean, there was a lot of snark in Mr. Polyev's letter. Understandably, he's the leader of the

00:09:48.180 opposition. He lost an election because he didn't see the Trump issue, or his campaign didn't grasp

00:09:55.180 how that was going to play. Carney exploited it successfully. Did you hear that? CTV is finally

00:10:00.720 saying the quiet part out loud. Of course, Mark Carney selfishly exploited the situation with Donald Trump

00:10:07.200 for his own benefit. We already knew that, but at least CTV is finally saying it.

00:10:12.300 But now, Prime Minister Carney has to show why, okay, Canadians said they trusted him to deal

00:10:18.560 with Donald Trump. They have to see some results at some point. Now, the one thing, Vashi, that

00:10:24.300 Canada has going for it is the U.S. consumer. American consumers are now facing 17.4% average

00:10:33.420 tariffs on goods, according to the Yale Budget Lab, which is a nonpartisan think tank. That means

00:10:38.800 the average U.S. household is spending $2,300 more than they did when Joe Biden was president

00:10:44.580 on the same goods. So that means inflation's hitting. Under Biden, the average tariff was

00:10:51.680 around 2%. So they're at 1935 levels. And that's good for Canada in the sense that there's going to 0.99

00:10:58.780 be pressure on Mr. Trump because it's his voters who are hurting the most, the kind of lower middle 0.98

00:11:04.840 class, angry folks who felt that they weren't getting a good deal under Biden. Well, they're

00:11:10.900 paying a lot more for those goods and services now. But is it going to be enough to put pressure

00:11:16.840 on Trump that he's going to cut Canada some slack tomorrow? I doubt it. But it's building. Mr.

00:11:22.920 Trump's polling is not great. He's resorting to invading the cities of Chicago and Portland

00:11:28.500 to distract attention from the fact the economy is not doing so great in the United States.

00:11:32.740 So he can say all he wants about how factories are moving back there. That's just, there's a few,

00:11:38.100 but it's not, it's that the success is not being felt by the American consumer.

00:11:43.100 So personally, I'm glad that CTV aired that clip. Let's break it down a little bit.

00:11:47.400 Now, anyone with half a brain knows that Mark Carney is not going to get a good deal tomorrow.

00:11:51.820 And now that's really bad in the short term, but it's good in the medium to long term. And let me

00:11:56.460 explain. If Mark Carney fails to get a good deal with Donald Trump tomorrow, his supporters,

00:12:00.560 they're not going to be happy. And this comes as Paulyev continues to rise in the polls,

00:12:05.620 while Carney continues to fall in the polls. Carney failing to live up to his one major campaign

00:12:10.600 promise is going to be the death blow that the Liberal Party so desperately deserves.

00:12:15.440 And it's sort of ironic. Carney got in because of Trump, but now he's going to be pushed out

00:12:20.040 because of Trump. Think about this. We have CBC, CTV, even members of the Liberal government,

00:12:26.040 they're turning on Mark Carney. Now, next month, we have a vote on the budget. And once Canadians see

00:12:31.720 just how big that deficit is, they're going to be voting Carney out or else he's going to resign in

00:12:36.640 shame. And look, I really understand. These are rough times. But like I've said before,

00:12:41.740 have some patience, have some faith. Paulyev will be in office soon enough.

00:12:46.740 Thanks for tuning in. Talk to you tomorrow. Don't forget to like and subscribe.

CTV Drops BOMBSHELL, Admits Elbows Up FAILED

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