Mark Slapinski

00:00:00.000 liberals thought that polyev's career was over however they're wrong dead wrong new

00:00:05.200 polling by abacus data changes everything today we're going to take a look at this exciting new

00:00:09.280 report together the title of this report is conservatives edge ahead as cost of living

00:00:13.760 dominates and trump fades and it was written by reputable pollster david coletto all right

00:00:19.120 all right let's dive into this the conservative party has pulled ahead in national vote intention

00:00:23.680 for the first time in months meanwhile the issue landscape remains anchored in affordability

00:00:28.960 with donald trump fading as a top tier concern a notable shift in a summer that's otherwise seen

00:00:33.840 stability and attitudes that's right patriots we're back just over a third of canadians believe the

00:00:40.320 country is headed in the right direction essentially unchanged from early august meanwhile 47 say things

00:00:46.960 are on the wrong track so what i'm getting from this report so far is that canadians simply don't

00:00:52.160 believe that carney is giving them what he said he was going to give them now i could warn them about

00:00:56.560 this however they didn't listen maybe next time however this report gets better so just stick

00:01:02.160 around the rising cost of living continues to dominate the political conversation chosen by 60

00:01:07.040 of canadians as one of their top three concerns the broader economy follows at 36 percent and housing at

00:01:13.360 35 percent healthcare ranks fourth at 33 percent donald trump's influence as a political issue appears to be

00:01:20.480 diminishing mentioned by 38 percent this wave and down from 44 earlier in the summer trump now sits

00:01:27.440 behind cost of living and is tied with the economy in salience while still significant his shadow is

00:01:32.640 receding slightly likely reflecting both canadian fatigue and a slight cooling in u.s news coverage

00:01:38.800 the only reason the liberals won the last election is because of trump if it wasn't because of trump they

00:01:43.280 wouldn't have a leg to stand on but the good news is that people are starting not to care about trump

00:01:47.920 anymore and that's giving polyev a much needed boost just wait though this report gets even better

00:01:53.600 carney's approval rating is falling and his disapproval rating is climbing while his numbers

00:01:58.480 still look pretty good it's a sign that his honeymoon phase is now over and i'll show you the graphic

00:02:03.280 right here as you see the numbers are starting to go in reverse where the red is going up and the

00:02:08.560 green is going down all right so there's even more good stuff in here conservatives are seen by the

00:02:13.680 majority of canadians as being better to deal with the cost of living the economy and immigration if an

00:02:19.680 election were held today 41 of decided voters would cast a ballot for the conservatives and that's up

00:02:24.800 one point liberals sit at 39 down four points since early august here's a picture of the graph right

00:02:31.200 here that's right patriots we're winning remember who called it i called it and now the back of state is

00:02:37.760 backing up what i said with research we're back now listen to what david coletto wrote at the end of

00:02:43.120 the report after a spring and summer of stability in public opinion we may be seeing signs of fluidity

00:02:48.640 in federal politics the carney government still enjoys a solid approval rating prime minister carney

00:02:54.000 personally remains well liked and the liberal brand remains broadly accessible but public concern around

00:02:59.200 affordability is persistent and the conservatives are clearly benefiting from that focus what's notable

00:03:04.320 about this wave is that donald trump's influence on canadian political attitudes may be receding for

00:03:08.640 now allowing domestic issues to reassert dominance that's not good news for the governing party which

00:03:14.320 holds strength internationally but continues to face trust gaps on the economy housing and cost of

00:03:20.000 living and for those who believe poliev can't become prime minister the data doesn't support that

00:03:24.720 view the issue set remains an asset to the conservatives his favorability numbers are not better than

00:03:30.000 carnies but not bad either and the conservative coalition remains firm with poliev back in the

00:03:35.680 house of commons this fall and with a complex set of issues in front of the government we may start to

00:03:40.400 see more shifts in public opinion so just to end off i noticed there's a lot of confusion about polling

00:03:46.320 and especially people on the right don't seem to understand how polls work so i'm going to try to

00:03:50.400 explain so a lot of people say how does a poll get accurate results if it doesn't ask the whole

00:03:54.720 population people often say that i've never been asked to do a poll well the interesting thing is

00:04:01.040 that a poll doesn't need to ask every single person to get an accurate result and let me briefly explain

00:04:07.120 polls work by selecting a small group of random people within a population now the reason it's

00:04:12.320 randomized is so everybody has an equal chance of being selected and i'll give you an example of why

00:04:17.680 that's the case let's say i wanted to figure out what the average person does in their spare time in

00:04:23.040 toronto i could ask my friends but the problem with asking my friends is that my friends have

00:04:27.920 similar interests to me so most of my friends are going to say that they like to play music

00:04:32.800 but that doesn't mean that the average person in toronto likes to play music that's just what

00:04:37.040 my friends say and this is a mistake a lot of people make they think that just because their

00:04:41.840 friends do something and they see it a lot online that means everybody does it but quite often it's

00:04:47.600 actually the opposite this is where it gets a bit complicated is that pollsters use a science called

00:04:52.080 weighting to make sure the results are accurate and what that means is that some people are more

00:04:56.720 likely to take polls than others so they try to figure out who's more likely to take a poll and

00:05:00.960 who's not the people that are more likely to take the poll their answers get devalued a little bit

00:05:06.720 and the people that are less likely to take a poll their answers get boosted a bit now of course

00:05:11.440 that gets a bit complicated but that's what pollsters specialize in i also want to point out that most

00:05:15.920 polling companies are private companies and where they make the big bucks is selling research to

00:05:20.560 corporations so they have a vested interest in providing good data because if the data is not

00:05:26.080 good people won't trust them and they won't spend money on their research they'll go to someone else

00:05:30.800 so i just want to throw that out there so i'll attach a link in the description so you can look

00:05:34.080 into this a bit more if you want it's interesting stuff but either way conservatives are on the right

00:05:38.960 track and i'm really optimistic about the future talk to you next time hey everyone pierre poliev here

00:05:45.200 answering questions for six buzz and i am anna poliev here pierce wife here to ask the questions 1.00

00:05:55.600 what would you do in your first day in office as a prime minister well we are going to axe the federal

00:06:01.040 sales tax on new homes and we will also incentivize municipalities to cut their building taxes so we

00:06:09.520 can knock a hundred grand of taxes off every new home we're going to cut income tax by 15 percent

00:06:16.560 that will be phased in over the first few years in my time in office and that'll let you keep more

00:06:22.640 of your paycheck and all those things are going to begin the first day i take office

00:06:31.600 my my musical tastes are pretty eclectic when i thumb through my list it's like

00:06:38.880 he is anything as random as led zeppelin to louie armstrong you know i do play some faster music when

00:06:47.680 i'm working out occasionally and then you have obviously some country music because i grew up in

00:06:52.400 calgary yeah so there's always some of that uh on my playlist and he has no choice but to listen

00:06:56.720 to latin music obviously you know you make up some some lyrics what lyrics do i make up um well you

00:07:04.400 say we go to home depot yo quiero estar contigo we go to home depot yeah yeah that's what i thought

00:07:11.440 the song was about some guys who needed to get some building supplies and they needed a two by four and

00:07:16.640 it's not it's enrique iglesias and it's really good let's move on before you screw up the song

00:07:23.200 okay what are we going to do about all the crime sometimes the answers are simple

00:07:28.480 not easy but simple we have to lock up criminals right so if you have you know right now we're in

00:07:34.640 the vancouver area get this stat 40 criminals got arrested 6 000 times in vancouver so we're basically

00:07:43.760 going to lock them up with tougher laws three strikes you're out by the way three serious

00:07:48.160 offenses you go to jail for a minimum of 10 years no chance for parole bail probation or house arrest

00:07:54.080 none whatsoever and even after your 10 and your sentence is done you'll have to earn your way out

00:07:58.400 of prison through spotless behavior clean drug tests and learning an employable skill are you watching

00:08:04.400 anything on tv right now no i don't watch tv we don't really have time guys um sorry we're boring i watch

00:08:11.760 a little bit of ufc on my youtube you do you like that so let's tell me why do you want to become

00:08:17.520 prime minister it's pretty simple i basically want to give people what i had very simple deal you work

00:08:23.920 hard you get a great life and that used to be how the country worked you could get a decent job at a

00:08:30.400 school you could get a down payment by the time you were 26 27 that's what i i had that chance when i

00:08:35.760 was a kid i started from pretty humble beginnings and got to where i am i just want everybody to help

00:08:41.360 else to have that chance so that's why i'm doing sounds like common sense to me how can people who

00:08:45.840 want to support you help vote you have to vote and tell all your friends to vote as long as they're

00:08:51.840 voting of course for change do it with the conservatives you want your life back you want to afford a home

00:08:57.920 you want a great life you want um the freedom to do whatever you want then you got to get out and vote

00:09:04.480 because if you don't vote it will not change things will only get worse we they can get better

00:09:09.600 we have to have hope for a change go mark your ex thank you guys thank you

New Report On Poilievre Changes EVERYTHING

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