Mark Slapinski

00:00:00.000 i have some breaking news the mainstream media is now confirming a federal election could be coming

00:00:05.280 in two weeks and that pure polyev actually has a chance of winning let's take a look at that

00:00:10.480 well without a doubt the government's first budget will be top of mind for the next two weeks here

00:00:15.120 in ottawa and if the budget does not pass well that would trigger another election something

00:00:20.960 the government house leader says is a real possibility take a listen right now to stephen

00:00:26.160 mckinnon look we do not think an election is necessary we have a minority parliament but we

00:00:32.240 do believe we have a mandate a mandate along the lines of my previous answer um if there has to be

00:00:38.240 an election we will confidently uh take our plan to the people but we don't think an election is

00:00:44.320 necessary and we can win one and as i said yesterday the the opposition parties are in my view being

00:00:50.720 very very cavalier about the country okay so the government house leader uses the word cavalier

00:00:57.520 but is there any incentive for any party to pull the plug on this parliament to talk about this

00:01:03.200 we're now joined by polls analyst eric grenier the founder and the writer of the writ hello eric

00:01:08.720 hi so listen and i don't have to say this to you but any party that wants to vote this government down

00:01:14.880 they would have to have this feeling that they could gain more seats in another vote so so i wonder

00:01:20.080 what the polls are telling you because you did ask us to prepare two results in particular i'm going

00:01:24.720 to ask the control room to call it up right now so there you have it leger to the left abacus to

00:01:28.560 the right walk us through these polls eric and what they're telling you yeah these are see projections

00:01:34.880 based on polls that we've seen recently from abacus data and leger and i do think that these

00:01:40.000 two sets of polls actually do tell the story the two kinds of narratives we're seeing from the polls

00:01:44.800 abacus had the poll out just a few days ago had the conservatives at 41 the liberals at 40 and

00:01:49.760 the ndp at eight percent did you hear that the mainstream media actually admits that the

00:01:54.720 conservative party is leading the liberals at 41 that's excellent news it means that we actually

00:02:00.720 can win an election all we need is a few more percentage points then if an election is called

00:02:07.120 we're gonna win now i just want to quickly point out my videos aren't getting as much traction as they

00:02:11.200 normally do so if you see this part of the video give it a like give it a subscribe and let me know

00:02:16.560 whether you saw this part in the comment section i'm doing a test all right thank you let's get back

00:02:21.440 to the action leger had a poll a few weeks before that had the liberals with a six point lead over

00:02:26.800 the conservatives and that is pretty much the kind of numbers we've seen from polls over the last two

00:02:31.040 months either a neck and neck race between the liberals and the conservatives or either a small

00:02:34.800 lead for the liberals in the case of the small lead for the liberals you get a majority government

00:02:40.480 like those see projection shows where the liberals could get the majority that they were missing out on

00:02:45.120 election night and with the very close race the kind of numbers that we've seen especially at the

00:02:50.080 regional level really suggested be 50 50. the sea projection i had there had 150 seats apiece for

00:02:55.520 the liberals and the conservatives in all likelihood one of them would end up with one or more one one

00:03:00.000 or two more seats than the other but it does show that there are two different scenarios that are

00:03:04.160 being played out here i think in a lot of uh parties minds one is could the liberals get a majority

00:03:09.040 and the other is could it end up being as as much as a toss-up election between the conservatives and the

00:03:14.640 liberals yeah so so two possible narratives nothing really guaranteed if for example the conservatives

00:03:19.600 want to pull the plug but i but i also do wonder here eric because the conservative leader has been

00:03:24.560 on the defense of this week he's been asked questions about that interview he gave uh when

00:03:29.280 that pierre pollie pierre pollie excuse me gave in which he described the rcmp leadership as despicable

00:03:35.840 and he accused the rcmp of covering up for justin trudeau is there any way of knowing if those

00:03:40.880 comments and the fallout from it will affect the the numbers that you've been looking at

00:03:45.440 well i think that it's not going to impact his ability to pass the leadership review in january

00:03:50.080 uh every indication is that conservative voters and we can expect that as well of party members

00:03:55.040 are very pleased with pierre pollie but will it have a broader impact on the support for pierre pollie

00:04:00.400 and the conservatives we've seen lots of criticisms about how statements like this don't seem to put him

00:04:05.440 as a pm and waiting they're not the kind of things that are going to appeal to those those really those

00:04:10.160 swing voters that the conservatives need to win the next election so we'll be watching to see over

00:04:13.920 the next little while if some of the some of the discontent we've heard over the last while is going

00:04:18.640 to impact his polling numbers and that indirectly could end up impacting his his leadership if there

00:04:25.520 is more concern without the within the conservative party whether or not they like him whether they

00:04:29.760 think he can actually win the next election yeah and that is of course because part of the

00:04:33.600 calculus that conservatives would have to consider whether or not they wanted to to vote down this

00:04:37.840 government let's also talk about the bloc quebecois though because yes the conservatives are the

00:04:41.200 official opposition but for the liberals they need quebec it's their path to government and we've heard

00:04:46.640 from uh he has already said that he's going to vote against the budget even with before seeing it

00:04:52.400 so when you look at the same two polls is there any any motivation for the bq to to pull the plug on this

00:04:59.520 parliament well yes and no uh they had 22 seats in the last election and with the kind of numbers

00:05:05.360 we've seen the bloc is up a little bit in quebec the liberals are down a little bit they could expect

00:05:09.280 to win 30 31 seats maybe uh replicate the results from the 2019 and 2021 elections but in one of those

00:05:16.160 scenarios they hold the balance of power in the other of those scenarios they just have a few more

00:05:20.880 seats with the liberal majority government and i think that is one of the things that the bloc has to

00:05:24.400 take into consideration what can they get out of the government right now because if there is an

00:05:28.720 election yeah the bloc might be able to win a few more seats doesn't necessarily mean that they

00:05:32.880 would have any more influence in a parliament after that so that is a choice they're going to have to

00:05:36.320 make also a big choice there is a provincial election in quebec next year so if the bloc doesn't

00:05:41.120 go in 2025 could they go in 2026 because i i think that they would want to make sure they're not getting

00:05:47.280 in the way with the pelci québécois winning that election next year and talk to us a bit about the

00:05:52.800 ndp because you know anecdotally i'll tell you i've spoken to some new democrats here in ottawa they talk about

00:05:58.000 the borrowed vote that that essentially delivered a victory to the carny liberals and they believe

00:06:03.360 that those votes would come back to the ndp if an election were held can you say anything about that

00:06:10.080 well that is certainly something that could happen but we haven't seen it happen in the polls there

00:06:14.000 have been a couple surveys now and then that'll have the ndp at 12 something like that but most of

00:06:18.800 them still show them in the low single or the the mid single digits i should say so there is the

00:06:23.200 chance that if there wasn't another election they could get the 12 seats that they need for official

00:06:27.600 party status in the house of commons there's also a chance that they end up with the same number of

00:06:31.840 seats or even fewer and the ndp really can't afford another bad election another election where they

00:06:37.680 have to spend resources on a on a campaign where they don't get a lot of the reimbursements back

00:06:42.720 so it's possible the ndp could find themselves with 12 15 seats in a new election but again could the

00:06:49.200 party afford uh another catastrophe like the last election and just like the bloc could they end up

00:06:54.560 losing the balance of power that they currently have okay so so then when you when you hear the

00:06:58.880 government house leader expressing concerns about getting this budget passed how real again based on

00:07:04.320 the numbers you're looking at how real is that concern right now eric it they must be real enough

00:07:10.400 because we see that mark kearney has met with a couple of the leaders today he's making that speech

00:07:15.680 there's clearly a concern that the budget might not get passed or that they need to make sure that they

00:07:20.400 have the parties on board to at least abstain one of them could abstain and also avoid an election

00:07:24.880 but at the same time there's not really a lot of incentive for anybody to go to the polls is there

00:07:29.200 a chance that any of those parties could end up in a better position yes is there a chance that they

00:07:33.680 could end up in a worse position yes and it's really 50 50. so we're not in a scenario like in

00:07:39.200 the fall of 2024 where there was a huge incentive for the conservatives for the bloc to go to uh to a

00:07:44.880 campaign because of how weak the liberals were right now liberals could get a majority they could get

00:07:49.600 defeated the conservatives could win uh an election they could end up in the exact same position they

00:07:53.840 are right now so uh when you look at those kind of calculations not a lot of incentives for parties

00:07:59.920 to go to the polls now maybe there'll be incentives to go later okay uh maybe as soon as next week who

00:08:05.280 knows we'll bug you again eric randy i always appreciate the time thank you for that thanks michael so

00:08:11.920 there you have it the mainstream media is literally admitting a new election could be around the corner

00:08:17.040 mcpire polyev in fact does have a chance of winning now the guy on this episode didn't use

00:08:22.400 those exact words but that's what they're hinting at now it all makes sense that's why my videos and

00:08:27.760 other podcasters are getting censored that's why the liberals and the liberal media are on attack mode

00:08:33.600 they know the end is nigh and they're getting desperate really desperate this also comes as the

00:08:38.960 people of toronto reject their socialist mayor olivia chow even the mainstream media is now admitting

00:08:44.960 that she's on her way out if you haven't seen that video check that one out after this one i think

00:08:49.760 you're gonna like it especially if you live in or near toronto now before i end off for today i want

00:08:55.120 to show you another recent clip from polyev in the house of commons you're gonna like this another day

00:09:00.720 more costly slogans from that member of parliament but now canadians are learning it was a bait and switch

00:09:05.920 today another terrible tragedy as they laugh 1300 excuse me 1200 workers at the indersault kami plant

00:09:15.440 learned that they would lose their jobs after that prime minister promised he would negotiate a win

00:09:20.960 and that he would keep their jobs here in canada they joined with 2 000 workers in brampton many more

00:09:28.080 in oshawa how does the prime minister look in the eyes the very workers that he sold out and betrayed

00:09:33.520 i'll tell you how the prime minister will how he will deal with the auto sector he will look at the

00:09:40.320 auto workers in the eyes and he will say we will fight for your job

00:09:51.440 this is important to say that i met this morning with the canadian ceo of gm i was in conversation with

00:09:58.880 the head of the labor union of uniform and i also talked to doug ford and i talked to vic fidelli and

00:10:05.680 you know what we're putting in place a response group we will make sure that we fight for these

00:10:11.200 jobs and she announced just now that she talked to this person and she talked to that person and she

00:10:15.920 talked to this other person and she talked and she talked and they talked and they talked and nothing

00:10:21.440 gets done mr speaker canadians are tired of talk they want their job this government for this prime

00:10:27.840 minister looked these workers in the eye and said he would negotiate a win that he would protect auto

00:10:33.680 jobs that there would be an all in canada supply chain that would keep them working they even gave

00:10:39.360 a quarter billion tax dollars to gm for this plant and now those workers don't know how they're going

00:10:45.760 to pay their bills how does this government explain the broken promise and betrayal another great speech

00:10:51.360 and a reminder of why we need paulie have an office he's smart he's a good leader he's a good father

00:10:57.440 and he's going to lead our country to greatness and make sure we're one of the richest most powerful

00:11:02.880 countries in the world i can assure you of that if he gets into office that's where we're headed

00:11:07.920 thanks for tuning in have a great night patriots

Poilievre Could Win If Election Were Held Today - Pollster

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