🚨 Something Just Happened With Poilievre’s Polls
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
196.2341
Summary
It looks like all that patience and all that faith is finally paying off, because the Conservative Party is once again rising in the polls. This ain t no click bait, this ain't no sensationalism, this is the real deal.
Transcript
00:00:00.000
Now remember how I always say at the end of my videos, have some patience, have some faith.
00:00:04.840
It looks like all that patience and all that faith is finally paying off. Why? Because Pierre
00:00:10.040
Polyev and the Conservative Party, they're once again rising in the polls. This ain't no click
00:00:15.240
bait. This ain't no sensationalism. This is the real deal and I'll attach all of my sources down
00:00:20.840
below. Let's take a look. So according to a recent poll by Main Street Research, 38% of Canadians
00:00:26.500
would vote for the Conservative Party, whereas only 36% of Canadians would vote Liberal. This is
00:00:31.740
among all voters. Among undecided voters, the numbers are 40% Conservative and 39% Liberal.
00:00:38.180
Now I hate to be that guy, but I called it. Remember that? I said, have a bit of faith,
00:00:43.740
have a bit of patience, and eventually we're going to get the results we're looking for.
00:00:47.820
Look what happened. We got the results we were looking for. Now I don't care what anyone says.
00:00:52.760
The Liberals only won last election for one reason, and one reason only, and that was Donald
00:00:57.960
Trump. They got lucky. Donald Trump had to start this nonsense about annexing Canada.
00:01:03.920
He had to start this trade war, and that's what tipped the scales back in favor of the Liberal Party.
00:01:09.420
Now of course, that might not have bothered you, but it bothered enough Canadians, and it scared
00:01:14.860
them away from the Conservative Party. Now that being said, the good news is that Trump is slowly
00:01:19.860
fading from people's minds, and people are starting not to care about him as much. They're starting to
00:01:24.720
come back to issues around immigration, cost of living, and taxes, and that's where the Conservatives
00:01:30.120
really shine. We're slowly getting back to the way we were last year. Now we're not talking about a
00:01:35.220
20-point lead right now, but it's slowly getting back to that point. Now CDV, they basically admitted
00:01:41.340
the same thing during a recent episode. So I'm going to show you that, and don't forget to stick around
00:01:45.900
to the end for some commentary. I also want to remind you I'm being heavily censored on YouTube,
00:01:50.620
and that's part of the reason you probably haven't seen my videos recently. So if you see this part,
00:01:55.760
let me know in the comment section, give me a quick like, and make sure you're still subscribed.
00:02:00.320
A lot of people, they subscribe to my videos, and then they don't see them, and then they ask me,
00:02:05.640
they say, well, what happened? I say, well, double check. Then they look at it, and they realize
00:02:09.960
they were unsubscribed against their will without their knowledge. So just double check. All right,
00:02:15.420
thank you. Let's get back to the action. Canadians started this year with Justin Trudeau as Prime
00:02:20.640
Minister, but that changed quickly on January 6th, to be exact, when Justin Trudeau stepped down,
00:02:25.360
saying he didn't have the support of his caucus to stay on. At that point, Liberals were on average
00:02:29.920
between 20 and 30 points behind the Conservatives in public opinion polls. But with the advent of Trump
00:02:34.960
and a new leader as of March and Mark Kearney, the tides turned, and the Liberals won a fourth consecutive
00:02:39.720
mandate. At the time, a handful of seats short of a majority. Let's bring back the front bench to talk
00:02:45.020
about that. Christy Clark, Marco Medicino, James Moore, and Tony Clement. Christy, I'll start with you.
00:02:50.500
If we had this conversation a year ago, is this the outcome you think you would have predicted,
00:02:58.180
Well, I mean, Pierre Polyev had the gimme election of all gimme elections. It was a—it just—I mean,
00:03:06.900
it seemed to me ridiculous, crazy to imagine that Liberals could somehow win the election.
00:03:12.160
I was—we were all thinking, well, how do we save a few seats, rescue a few seats here? But the thing
00:03:17.880
was, is that Justin Trudeau had this theory that if they could get NDP votes, then they would win the
00:03:24.160
election, and he was right about that. His method, though, of getting there was saying, we're going to kill
00:03:28.780
resource development, we're going to kill everything from pipelines to aquaculture, and we're going to talk
00:03:34.680
about social justice a whole lot. We ended up with an economy that was, like, in the ones in terms of
00:03:40.760
growth, and it turns out that New Democrats, as well as a lot of other Canadians, decided, well, you know what?
00:03:47.720
We want jobs. We don't want to be just talked down to. We don't want to be—we don't want someone
00:03:52.680
standing in the way of growth. We want jobs. And so, you know, Carney comes in with a proven record
00:03:58.020
on that. Trump, on the other side, threatening the country. People wanted stability. They wanted to
00:04:03.700
get somebody serious, and they wanted jobs. And so, you know, it was an utterly unexpected outcome,
00:04:11.900
but I think, you know, one where Canadians really decided we got to do a U-turn here, but they didn't
00:04:19.380
want—they wanted somebody serious. And that's how Mark Carney was finally elected at the end of the
00:04:25.100
day. Shocked me as much as everybody else. You know, unlike some other members of this panel,
00:04:29.880
I might be more happy about it, though, than they are.
00:04:34.400
Tony, as you look back over the last eight months, we haven't even hit a year yet since the election,
00:04:39.320
or since the liberal leadership race. What do you think the prime minister is doing well,
00:04:43.480
and what do you think he's not doing well? Yeah. And let me preface my answer, Vashie,
00:04:49.340
by saying that Canadians are reasonable and patient people. So they're going to give
00:04:53.180
Mark Carney the benefit of the doubt for the first segment of his mandate. And that's what Canadians
00:05:00.120
do. And I respect that. And I think all conservatives respect the election result, despite a little bit
00:05:06.060
of angst about how it all turned out. Having said that, I think that Mark Carney is good at
00:05:12.960
illustrating a changed direction, whether it's on natural resources or on the carbon tax or saying
00:05:21.060
things about fiscal probity in the federal budget. I think the jury—I'm saying this in a very neutral
00:05:29.880
way, but the jury is still out—on whether he can achieve all of those things. But again, Canadians
00:05:35.740
are patient. They're going to give him the time. Whether he can do all those things that he says he can
00:05:41.320
do is, in my view, an open question. And there certainly is some evidence that some of them are
00:05:47.200
counter to one another. So I think, ultimately, Mark Carney is going to have to make decisions.
00:05:52.040
That's what you do in the prime minister's chair. And then he will be judged accordingly.
00:05:55.600
Hmm. I think one of the things that we've talked about on this panel pretty frequently,
00:06:00.700
Marco, is the size of the ambition described, right? Like, the magnitude of it is certainly
00:06:08.740
not what we're used to in politics. I know James has made this point a couple of times,
00:06:12.440
like just saying, you know, we're going to have the fastest-growing economy in the G7,
00:06:16.980
and it's going to be this, it's going to be that. Like, these are not—usually,
00:06:20.160
you know, we set expectations low in politics so that they can be surpassed.
00:06:23.980
How big of a challenge do you think that's going to be for the prime minister moving forward?
00:06:28.600
I think it will be a challenge. I mean, to use the old adage, you know, we campaign in poetry
00:06:33.640
and we govern in prose. And certainly, I think managing expectations and executing in delivery
00:06:39.040
will be crucial for 2026. But as I've been watching some of the clips that you've been
00:06:44.800
playing throughout the show so far, I mean, it's a bit of a photo album for me, a bit personal.
00:06:48.480
And it, you know, is encapsulated by sort of a never-say-never mentality. A year ago,
00:06:54.840
you know, the Liberal Party was 20 points down. Most people were writing us off into oblivion.
00:07:00.840
I had announced that I wasn't going to be running again. And then a short few weeks into 2026 had
00:07:05.680
been asked to be the prime minister's first chief of staff. And, you know, there was a clip there,
00:07:10.840
which I think also really captures one of the most pivotal moments in the first months of his tenure.
00:07:18.980
And that was in that bilateral, in the Oval Office. You know, and I'm standing over the shoulder
00:07:25.960
of the prime minister as he's having his first interactions with Donald Trump.
00:07:29.900
And there was one never. And that was that Canada would never be for sale. And to me, I think that
00:07:39.440
was a real watershed moment to signal to Canadians and to the American administration that this is
00:07:47.260
a prime minister who understands how to crisis manage. I mean, he has spent the better part of
00:07:52.240
his professional life doing just that. 2008, in the Great Recession, serving alongside of Prime
00:07:59.040
Minister Harper, and then going to the UK and helping, you know, England navigate Brexit.
00:08:06.480
And so he seems to have been engineered for this moment. And all of the repositioning that we have
00:08:13.660
seen of the Liberal Party, a party that is much more focused on the economy, a party that I think is
00:08:19.760
much more relatable in some ways in this current moment, because Canadians are apprehensive, they are
00:08:27.160
anxious about the cost of living and about their future. I think all of that energy is striking a chord
00:08:35.340
with a lot of Canadians. And I want to come back to what James said about the
00:08:40.580
tacitonic plates shifting. I think there is also a profound shifting in the tacitonic plates that form the
00:08:48.600
political coalitions that make up this government. And so I think 2026 is going to be an interesting year.
00:08:56.320
Do you think that's the case, James, that I mean, I think to maybe put like even a finer point on it,
00:09:01.440
Canadians might be asking themselves, like, are we in for a two party system for the foreseeable future?
00:09:06.280
Like, is it is it going to be an option between Liberals and Conservatives who, from a policy perspective,
00:09:12.460
have less of a contrast than they did a year and a half ago? As usual, Bashir, I think you put your
00:09:18.100
finger on it. And I agree with Marco. I think for Prime Minister Carney, we'll talk about Pierre,
00:09:23.420
I think, in a later segment. But I was I think about Prime Minister Carney going into 2026.
00:09:28.680
I think he has a decision to make. Christie mentioned about the coalition that came together
00:09:32.320
to get him elected in April of this year. And it really was he has borrowed voters from
00:09:37.060
progressives who really didn't like Donald Trump and who really, really didn't like Pierre
00:09:41.460
Polyev and the idea of him becoming Prime Minister. And a lot of progressive voters lent their votes
00:09:45.740
to Mark Carney on in a defensive posture. And they're waiting to see some receipts.
00:09:49.740
They're not getting a lot of receipts. You see a Prime Minister who is increasing military spending
00:09:53.600
to $81 billion, who's buying F-35s, we think, or and but growing procurement in any event,
00:09:59.760
you know, is offending the center left progressive environmental movement with his moves on carbon
00:10:05.560
pricing and so on. So I mean, and he's pro pipeline now, etc. So I think for Prime Minister Carney,
00:10:10.880
as he goes into 2026, he thinks about the mandate and where it came from in April of 2025.
00:10:17.040
2026 is about, is he going to do a progressive pivot and try to retain those NDP voters? Or is
00:10:22.800
he going to double down and really be a progressive conservative? If he's going to do a progressive
00:10:27.200
pivot, I think you have to look in the next, I think in the first half of certainly 2026,
00:10:32.100
and see if he's going to tack left on other things that he hasn't talked about yet.
00:10:35.180
Whether it's, you know, culture policy, whether it's standing up to the Americans on the online
00:10:40.280
streaming app, you know, there are things that he can do on social policy, maybe a guaranteed
00:10:44.900
annual income, expanded childcare, I don't know. But is he going to do a progressive pivot and try
00:10:49.500
to hold on to those NDP voters? Or is he going to try and seize the middle ground and become really
00:10:54.200
kind of a blue, liberal, red Tory progressive conservative and try to straddle the broad middle?
00:10:59.240
And is that ground available? Um, there's a political, cause he can't have both. He has
00:11:03.760
to choose. And I think politically we'll see what he does in 26. Do you just very quickly follow up?
00:11:09.160
Do you think that ground is available? We'll see. I mean, you know, it's, I think,
00:11:14.320
I think there are a lot of Canadians. I think Marco touched on it, right? There are a lot of Canadians
00:11:17.360
who are, who have shed their old partisan fight because they realize that Donald Trump really is
00:11:21.960
something different. He's not just another president. And when, when Canadians, as Christy said,
00:11:26.720
they want the prime minister to broaden our global market access and sell our products to more than
00:11:31.960
just 97% of what we sell in for energy goes to the United States. They want to see it to go to
00:11:36.540
more countries, not just because we need to, but because we want to, we don't want to just sell
00:11:41.000
to Americans anymore, not just because it's a better economic opportunity, but because we're
00:11:45.040
offended. We're not a 51st state. We're an independent, proud country with a sturdy past and a bright future.
00:11:50.720
And we don't want to do business with Americans right now. And we're not going to do it for a long
00:11:54.480
time. And they, and so, so I think a lot of people are prepared to shed the old sort of culture war,
00:11:59.340
partisan, red, blue, orange veneer that we have on politics and fight a fight that's worth fighting,
00:12:04.920
which is putting country first. And I think there's a great appeal to that. And I think the prime
00:12:09.260
minister is, he has some choices to make about how he holds that together. Now, of course, CTV and his
00:12:14.620
panelists, they're obviously biased against conservatives. However, they admitted something
00:12:19.300
really important at the beginning of that episode. They admitted that it was actually because of
00:12:24.220
Donald Trump, like I said, that the conservatives lost and the liberals won. Even some on the left
00:12:30.040
were surprised the liberals won. They were surprised that Mark Carney got into power. Now, other political
00:12:35.620
commentators, they'll make every excuse they can for Donald Trump. Well, you know what? I'm not going
00:12:40.760
to do that. I'm a patriot. I love my country. And I believe that anyone that's a patriot and loves
00:12:46.460
their country, Canada can't support Donald Trump. I will never forgive Donald Trump for starting this
00:12:52.480
trade war with Canada, talking about annexing us and costing us another federal election. And by us,
00:12:59.020
I mean conservatives. And if that's not enough for you, what happened with Epstein? It seems that as
00:13:05.140
more and more information comes out, Trump was pretty close with Epstein. And in my opinion,
00:13:10.800
that's kind of weird. And also what happened to the war in Ukraine? I thought this whole war was
00:13:16.240
supposed to be over. It looks like Donald Trump's not doing a great job in the second term to say
00:13:21.340
the least, but enough about Trump. I'm still optimistic that conservatives are going to win
00:13:26.080
a super majority, hopefully sooner rather than later. I'm still predicting a blue summer. Now,
00:13:31.820
I'm not saying that's going to happen a hundred percent because another sneaky conservative MB could
00:13:35.960
always cross the aisle, but you know what? I don't care if they do that. You know what? If they're
00:13:40.620
going to do it, they should do it now. And we should figure out who the traders are now before the next
00:13:45.880
election. PolyEv needs MPs he can trust. So like I always say, just hang in there and have a bit of
00:13:51.580
faith. As a bonus, I've added some new items to my store. And as a bonus for watching, you can save
00:13:57.320
10% by entering the code Pierre2026. And if for whatever reason, the website doesn't open,
00:14:03.940
just try it again because I know it shuts down sometimes. Thanks for tuning in. I love you all.
00:14:09.160
My voice is still a bit hoarse, but I think it's slowly coming back. Talk to you tomorrow, Patriots.