PJ The Belt - Carney Just CUT A DEAL With China For Canada’s Arctic

00:00:00.000 What we have seen is that Prime Minister Carney traveling to Beijing describing Canada's alignment

00:00:04.560 with Beijing's new world order. It wasn't just a series of trade agreements that the Prime

00:00:08.660 Minister had made on behalf of Canada. It included security arrangements and security dialogues.

00:00:13.540 This is, I think, a fundamental misunderstanding of the threat to the Canadian strategic interest,

00:00:17.720 especially our own sovereign Arctic region. This whole thing with China didn't happen overnight.

00:00:22.620 For months now, Carney has been quietly signaling a shift towards Beijing, talking about re-engagement,

00:00:29.160 stability, expanding cooperation, even as Canada's relations with Washington have been getting more

00:00:35.580 and more hostile. You've seen it in the tone, you've seen it in the meetings, and you've seen

00:00:39.640 it in how often Canada sides with Europe and other globalist organizations instead of the U.S.,

00:00:44.800 even on core security issues. But here's the part most people are missing, and this is critical.

00:00:50.440 China doesn't separate trade, diplomacy, or security the way Western countries do, and that

00:00:56.460 means that any deeper cooperation with them always comes with strings attached. So the real question

00:01:01.720 isn't whether Canada is getting closer to China. It's what Ottawa has already given up to make that

00:01:07.080 happen. Good morning. My name is Kyle Matthews. I'm the Executive Director of the Montreal Institute

00:01:11.660 of Global Security. We're pleased to be here today at the Canadian Parliament to launch a report

00:01:16.320 published by the London-based China Strategic Risk Institute to talk about threats the Canadian

00:01:24.400 Arctic, particularly coming from China. We've seen in the past year increased

00:01:29.560 geopolitical competition, unraveling of the world order, and increased focus on

00:01:33.880 Canada's Arctic. And so we feel that there's a need to inform the Canadian

00:01:37.840 public, to inform policymakers on the challenges we face from authoritarian

00:01:42.580 states that are eyeing our resources, eyeing our territory, threatening our

00:01:47.160 sovereignty. So we're here today to talk about this in detail. We really want to

00:01:53.560 ensure that the Canadians around the country from west to east, north to south, understand that

00:02:01.240 there are actors that we should not be dependent on and we should actually take measures to protect

00:02:06.760 our sovereignty and protect the Arctic and work with our allies on this. Now the Arctic is entering

00:02:11.480 a new phase of strategic competition and China has become the most active non-Arctic player in the

00:02:17.000 region. China's growing presence raises two core concerns for Canada related to sovereignty and 0.88

00:02:23.080 security on sovereignty china support promotes the idea that the arctic should be treated as a

00:02:28.200 global commons where non-arctic states have equal access equal rights of access and extraction that

00:02:34.360 directly challenges canadian long-standing position that water such as the northwest passage

00:02:39.560 fall under canadian jurisdiction it also risks undermining the autonomy and governance of local

00:02:44.360 communities that live in the canadian arctic as well as environmental protections on security we

00:02:49.240 We see expanding presence and dual-use infrastructure can create long-term dependencies and surveillance

00:02:55.840 risks for northern communities as well as Canada as a whole.

00:03:00.260 Our report details how Chinese activities fall across the spectrum, from economic investment

00:03:05.620 in mining to scientific collaboration and polar research vessels to offers to finance

00:03:10.180 critical infrastructure in remote communities.

00:03:13.360 But the cumulative effect of an incremental strategy that builds access, relationships

00:03:18.080 and influence in the arctic over time this also reflects a broader pattern of foreign interference

00:03:24.160 canada has been confronting as a country many arctic communities face significant infrastructure

00:03:29.760 gaps this is true in areas such as broadband and transportation and so these infrastructure

00:03:34.800 investment offers from china can appear attractive because they're addressing real community needs

00:03:39.440 but these proposals also carry significant and potential national security implications

00:03:44.720 This also reflects a similar trend and pattern and playbook that we've seen in Belt and Road

00:03:49.120 initiatives where China is offering critical infrastructure in under-resourced areas in

00:03:53.520 exchange for economic access or long-term leverage. We've seen these dynamics play out in Sri Lanka

00:03:58.400 where Chinese financing for the Hambatantori port ultimately resulted in a 99-year lease to China

00:04:05.600 or in Djibouti where infrastructure investment ultimately was followed by the establishment

00:04:09.840 of China's first overseas military base near the port facilities.

00:04:13.760 China, as we all know, has been the disruptor, the rupture from over a decade ago to the international system. 1.00

00:04:19.380 The shocks that Beijing has imposed around the world has been something that Canadians have had to struggle with in their day-to-day life,

00:04:26.000 in our trade security, our sovereignty, and our ability to carry on in our strategic alliances.

00:04:33.280 What we have learned in recent studies is that Beijing is a primary threat to Canada's Arctic.

00:04:38.240 The Canadian Security Intelligence Service confirmed this assessment at the House of Commons Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development on February 14,

00:04:46.900 underscoring the growing strategic challenge posed by China's expanding presence in the north.

00:04:51.620 And so I'm very grateful for this report that I think every parliamentarian, policymaker, minister, and Canadian should read.

00:04:57.780 It is a report that discovers some significant gaps, as Elizabeth has described just now.

00:05:02.740 Surveillance and domain awareness gaps.

00:05:04.440 Canada's northern surveillance infrastructure is outdated and slow modernization under the North

00:05:09.400 American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, leaves Canada underprepared to detect unconventional

00:05:14.960 threats. Second, investment and infrastructure screening gaps. The Investment Canada Act does

00:05:20.080 not adequately capture unsolicited or subnational foreign infrastructure offers, particularly those

00:05:26.360 directed at indigenous or territorial governments. Third, scientific and technological presence.

00:05:31.900 China uses science diplomacy to advance data gathering and infrastructure projects

00:05:36.300 with potential dual-use applications.

00:05:38.880 Fragmented federal coordination has left openings for exploitation,

00:05:42.120 and they must be closed immediately.

00:05:44.060 Fourth, maritime awareness gaps.

00:05:46.040 Canada's incomplete maritime domain awareness means increased vessel traffic,

00:05:50.260 particularly by state-affiliated operators, may go undetected,

00:05:53.760 especially if supported by foreign-financed dual-use infrastructure.

00:05:57.420 Let's not be naive about this.

00:05:59.620 The China China is not an Arctic nation yet claims to try and be one China's commercial efforts in Greenland and elsewhere is a project of weaponized commerce.

00:06:08.440 It has proven as such over the last decade in regions around the world, as has already been described.

00:06:13.080 Meanwhile, Ottawa is out here playing geopolitical chess with China, a country that the United States military, the U.S. intelligence community and basically every Western government considers their number one strategic rival.

00:06:28.400 And Trump is saying it out loud at this point. China will eat Canada alive, devour its businesses, undermine its economy and use Canada as a tool against the United States to Canada's detriment, by the way.

00:06:46.000 And whether you like Trump or not, this part is objectively true.

00:06:52.060 China does not do friendship deals.

00:06:56.380 China does leverage.

00:06:58.560 China does control.

00:07:00.740 China does dependency. 0.81

00:07:03.420 And Ottawa is walking straight into it.

00:07:06.980 But maybe that's the plan.

00:07:08.620 Maybe that is Mark Carney's plan.

00:07:11.320 I'm Alex DL.

00:07:11.920 I'm the senior fellow for Arctic security at the Montreal Institute for Global Security.

00:07:16.000 Today's report provides a valuable window. It provides a valuable window into China as a growing strategic challenge for Canada's Arctic, and that is the fundamental takeaway we need to keep in mind here.

00:07:27.020 It argues that Arctic security is Canada's national security, and that a mix of calibrated regional and global strategies and actions are required if we are to meet this challenge.

00:07:37.040 As Elizabeth mentioned, this is about a full spectrum challenge. It's about economic security

00:07:43.040 to protect our infrastructure, and it's about research security to protect our science.

00:07:48.080 China is pushing on all of these fronts, and these fronts also point to the likelihood of 0.83

00:07:52.400 China's growing future military capabilities in the Arctic. An important point in the paper to

00:07:58.280 realize is that China's extensive collaboration with Russia is advancing China's Arctic interests,

00:08:03.940 enabling its presence, advancing its capabilities through transfer of technology, skills, and presence.

00:08:11.400 China is pushing hard on the commercial front, taking advantage of Arctic sea lanes passing the Russian coast to reach Europe,

00:08:18.860 and is looking at technologies, as the report points out, to improve the quality of its nuclear submarine fleet.

00:08:25.860 It's important to keep to mind that even on the scientific front, this is dual-use technology,

00:08:30.840 dual use knowledge that can be applied in a whole range of domains including in the military one

00:08:36.520 it's very important in canada that we have an ongoing conversation about building and

00:08:40.040 protecting dual use and multiple use infrastructure a key point in this paper we need a concerted

00:08:46.360 effort to devise governance mechanisms to support secure infrastructure development at all levels

00:08:51.480 of canadian government ground up and top down china is using all of its tools on the arctic front

00:08:58.440 That calls for a whole-of-government approach by the Canadian federal government for the same problem.

00:09:03.320 Thank you.

00:09:03.780 With that being said, if there's any journalist in person or online that would like to ask a question,

00:09:08.520 we are free and available to do so.

00:09:12.560 Emma Godin here with CBC.

00:09:13.780 I'll ask, Elizabeth, you mentioned some examples of some concrete threats.

00:09:18.360 I'm thinking that Canadians probably remember a lot from late 2020 to early 2023

00:09:23.440 with the concerns around surveillance balloons,

00:09:28.000 buoys that were found in Canadian waters.

00:09:29.880 Are there other examples like that that we're starting to see continue?

00:09:34.760 I'd also like to invite my colleagues to address that as well.

00:09:38.660 I mean, China's activities last summer, mostly in the North Pacific,

00:09:44.060 Beaufort Sea, Chouksey Sea, off the Bering Strait,

00:09:46.380 and Alaska is directly relevant to Canada and Canada's security.

00:09:51.160 These are so far in line with international law and sailing in international waters, but pushing right up to the edges.

00:09:58.120 And they're certainly signaling, just as is China's use of Russia's northern sea route to move to ship via sea routes to Europe.

00:10:08.940 I think one of the crucial questions here is around governance and is Russia enforcing the standards that the Arctic community had very carefully devised for safe shipping, environmentally sound shipping?

00:10:19.720 and will China abide by those?

00:10:23.340 Hey there, thanks for taking our questions.

00:10:25.020 Sorry for the audio here.

00:10:26.720 I'm wondering if you could speak to how this government

00:10:30.080 and its predecessor have talked about China in the Arctic

00:10:33.820 in terms of the Arctic foreign policy that came out under Trudeau,

00:10:38.600 Carney before the Beijing visit,

00:10:41.160 and especially after the Beijing visit.

00:10:42.980 It seems like every time the foreign minister has spoken

00:10:46.020 about threats to the Arctic,

00:10:47.060 Russia is always named. I'm not sure if China is coming up. Have you seen a shift there and how

00:10:53.500 should we be publicly messaging about these countries? Thank you for the question. I think

00:11:03.000 we have seen a shift in terms of Canadian strategic discussion of this where Russia is seen as the

00:11:10.240 current threat, the established threat in China as the emerging threat. I think it's very important 1.00

00:11:16.440 that Canada keep in mind that the Arctic almost as a whole is a strategic sector so any engagement

00:11:23.280 with non-Arctic countries in general but particularly with governments such as those

00:11:28.940 of China needs to be subject to extremely high levels of scrutiny and caution. It's the Nordic 1.00

00:11:35.020 countries and the United States with which we will build security in the Arctic. These are the

00:11:40.240 relationships most important. We should certainly be active with many countries in encouraging

00:11:44.860 science, etc., in cooperation with Canada. But, you know, the nature of the governments in Beijing

00:11:50.940 and Moscow, you know, present a particularly sharp challenge to, you know, in the short,

00:11:56.960 medium-term relations that involve Arctic matters. What we have seen is that Prime Minister Carney

00:12:04.680 traveling to Beijing, describing Canada's alignment with Beijing's new world order.

00:12:08.540 It wasn't just a series of trade agreements that the Prime Minister had made on behalf of Canada.

00:12:12.520 It included security arrangements and security dialogues.

00:12:15.900 This is, I think, a fundamental misunderstanding of the threat to the Canadian strategic interest,

00:12:20.020 especially our own sovereign Arctic region.

00:12:22.480 For too long, this government and the one that preceded it have had an obsession with

00:12:26.620 trying to appease and accommodate Beijing's expansionist attitudes towards Canada and

00:12:32.300 our country.

00:12:33.480 And so I think it's important for Canadians to understand that this is a decision point

00:12:37.940 that the government has to make about securing our country by not just establishing diplomats,

00:12:43.720 whether it be an ambassador for the Arctic or a diplomatic presence in Greenland,

00:12:48.100 but the hard material and the economic interests that we need to defend with great zeal.

00:12:54.240 For a year, they've been not acting with the pace that they should be,

00:12:58.080 with the urgency that they should be.

00:12:59.180 For a year, they have been cloaking much of their concerns in the Arctic around language with Russia.

00:13:04.460 But Russia would never be able to accomplish its strategic goals in the Arctic

00:13:07.500 were it not for China's backing, and the government needs to recognize it.

00:13:10.220 If I can just get a follow-up, I'm wondering as well what sort of posture we should have

00:13:16.120 towards the current Trump administration when it comes to this issue,

00:13:20.100 specifically looking at the integration of Russian concerns,

00:13:24.420 of Russian oligarchs with the Trump administration, but also the Northwest Passage.

00:13:28.320 As you mentioned, China wants this seen as international waters.

00:13:31.720 I believe that that's also been the American policy.

00:13:34.260 I'm wondering how much we can advance our concerns about adversarial states in the Arctic

00:13:40.800 and how much of this we might have to wait until a later presidency.

00:13:48.080 I don't think we can wait until the next presidency.

00:13:51.260 I think that this needs to be a continual effort by Canada to express Canada's well-founded positions

00:13:56.800 on the nature of the waters in the Arctic, as well as, you know, the benefits of close

00:14:03.160 Canada-U.S. cooperation and, you know, some of the basic fundamentals of that cooperation

00:14:07.780 in respect for Indigenous rights and self-determination, et cetera.

00:14:11.960 So I think Canada needs to push this line.

00:14:14.620 We need to make the hard investments in, you know, things that reinforce NORAD.

00:14:19.660 We need to look creatively with our Greenlandic neighbours, our Danish neighbours, you know, 1.00

00:14:25.760 the Nordic countries on how we collectively convince the United States that NATO and North

00:14:31.500 American transatlantic cooperation are crucial. I also think there's a role here for Japan,

00:14:36.380 South Korea, as we saw last week, with Prime Minister Carney in Tokyo. Discussions of the

00:14:41.420 Arctic are coming up in a lot of different places, Canberra, Tokyo, New Delhi, etc. So Canada really

00:14:46.520 needs to be on the front foot with this, and certainly the U.S. is an absolutely essential

00:14:53.840 part for Canada to have the most robust defense and security can have. But certainly, I think we

00:15:00.400 need to stand on our own two feet and tell the Americans exactly the sort of Arctic that we want

00:15:06.140 to see take shape, ideally with them as partners. Do you think this security cooperation with China

00:15:11.140 is smart or is Canada playing with fire here? And if Washington does respond, will Canada be ready

00:15:16.780 for what comes next? Let me know what you think in the comments. And if you want more breakdowns

00:15:21.360 that cut through the noise like the video we just watched like and subscribe and I'll see you in the

00:15:26.440 next one

PJ The Belt - March 12, 2026

Carney Just CUT A DEAL With China For Canada’s Arctic

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