00:04:06.420If any party doesn't agree to renew, it will trigger an annual review for the next decade.
00:04:12.720I think the most likely outcome is going to be that discussions continue
00:04:17.920and we continue to try to find some kind of accommodation on these issues.
00:04:23.500Canada's chief negotiator for the original Kuzma told a BMO audience
00:04:27.400he doesn't expect a deal in the near term with a possible window around the November midterms.
00:04:33.220There's a possibility for it to come together, but I think it's more likely that the discussions will continue beyond the midterms and possibly even into next year.
00:04:43.700Steve Verhul and others say the key issue is separate from the KUSMA deadline, what happens with tariffs.
00:04:50.400We haven't been able to get the United States to drop all of these additional tariffs that it has imposed on Canada and that are actually really devastating to a large number of Canadian businesses currently.
00:05:02.640Canada, Mexico and the U.S. will meet virtually tomorrow with our country represented by Canada U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc.
00:05:10.900The U.S. President has also said he doesn't like the fact that Canada seems to be getting closer to China, making new trade deals with China and more trade agreements.
00:05:20.760We know that Canada is trying to diversify, as you point out, and that really is a pillar of the Carney government is diversifying away from the U.S. market.
00:05:28.420And obviously this is something as well that Donald Trump has made no secret of the fact he doesn't like
00:05:33.240There are a number of other things here though that Canada I guess could do if you want to sort of sweeten the pot
00:05:38.420One of them is the fact that the Americans have repeatedly highlighted
00:05:41.640They don't like the liquor control board system in Canada
00:05:44.340So you know that if you're trying to get American liquor, wine, beer, anything like that into the country
00:05:49.500You have to go through these liquor control boards
00:05:51.520Which makes it harder to import American products like that
00:05:54.680But the real big sticking point recently has been that, you know, in most provinces, including here in Ontario, you still can't buy American liquor, wine or beer.
00:06:03.100And that's because they do have this ban on the American products, something that was started over a year ago as a way to sort of push back against the steel and aluminum tariffs.
00:06:11.240So that's an area that perhaps Canada can try to bend on in these negotiations to sort of sweeten the pot for the Americans.
00:06:17.880But I think if you look overall at what's going to happen on July 1st, most experts are saying really nothing is going to happen.
00:06:25.340That the Americans are not going to just all of a sudden sign a trade deal tomorrow with Canada.
00:06:29.300That there's nothing, you know, serious in the works in terms of an offer from the Americans about what this new trade deal could look like.
00:06:36.220And that most likely tomorrow is just going to be a discussion.
00:06:38.980And from there, we just have a status quo agreement.
00:06:41.440This KUSMA agreement is still in place until 2036.
00:06:44.760It's not like it's just going to poof and disappear.
00:06:46.680year. What will happen is if the Americans don't sign on tomorrow, it just creates a yearly review
00:06:52.860for the next 10 years. So then the three countries have 10 years to come up with a new agreement
00:06:57.800with annual reviews. And some American commentators have said maybe that's exactly what the U.S.
00:07:03.520president wants is an annual review so that they can keep talking, make changes and agreements
00:07:08.380moving forward. So that is what most likely is going to happen, despite the fact that both Canada
00:07:13.940and Mexico have said they're really they are ready and willing to sign on for another 16 years
00:07:19.600USMCA did one thing that I loved after six years it comes up for renewal I don't know that I'm
00:07:29.080going to renew it so here we are no deal no plan just excuses while Ottawa chases trade with Beijing
00:07:36.780they forgot our biggest and most important partnership and Trump said no more one-sided
00:07:42.520deals. No more backroom games. Canada had every chance to secure stability and instead they
00:07:49.600gambled it away. And when the dust settles, Canadians will know who sold them out, hopefully.