PTW # 96 - George Gammon @RebelCapitalistChannel @GeorgeGammon
Episode Stats
Summary
In this episode of the Playing to Win Back podcast, Rich Rich is joined by his long time friend, george gammon, to discuss Bitcoin, central bank digital currency, and the future of money in a world where Bitcoin and other digital currencies are centralized, centralized, and controlled by the Federal Reserve.
Transcript
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all right we're live for the 96th installment of playing to win back with my friend george
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gammon how you doing george i'm doing awesome rich thanks for having me back it's been a while
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i like to talk to you publicly at least once or twice a year about what's going on in the world
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from your angle because i have a hard time keeping up on all your content on your channel and so many
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things are going on developing and changing and you've got some really good and some interesting
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takes on uh economics different levels of economics what's going on with uh the markets and uh
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even stuff outside of that man like you're a car guy too we were talking before we went live about
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this road trip that you're going to do sort of working with is it is it with crypto only down
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through south america no we're going to try to use bitcoin gold silver and if we have to cash but the
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whole thing is called a cbdc road trip to freedom challenge yeah let's start with that let's talk
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about that yeah the reason i'm doing it is because i believe that the question of cbdc's
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is a matter of when not if yeah in fact just yesterday i saw an article on reuters talking
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about how swift uh the the payment mechanism is coming out with a platform for central bank
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digital currencies within the next 12 to 24 months so this is something you know what's funny rich is
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when i first started talking about this back in 2019 when i started my channel everybody was
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calling me a tinfoil hatter they're calling me doom and gloom oh you don't know what you're talking
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about okay alex jones whatever a central bank digital currency okay and now all of a sudden
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based on that reuters article 90 of central banks are in the process of building a cbdc
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so this is a problem on a lot of different levels is this a bank issued problem or is this a federal
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government issued problem that we're sort of well as far as from a standpoint of the citizen the real
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problem is it's centralizing the ledger and therefore they're going to have the ability to see in real
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time and therefore control your transactions and then that leads to what i would call a social score
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yeah and this is where you know it goes into complete big brother and 1984 orwell
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yeah so programmable money is very easy to um i guess create program distribute on a blockchain ledger
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you can you don't have to mail it there's no checks there's no deposit in a bank account
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you can just be added to somebody's digital wallet and they could be forced to spend the money within
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a certain time frame they can be restricted on what they can spend the money on uh their ability
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to access it could be restricted dependent i mean you know if we ended up in a dystopian sort of space
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where it's like carbon credits are a thing and you've driven your diesel dually truck too far in the last
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few uh or your mclaren yeah or your mclaren your porsche we're having to be you know driving um you
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know we're going to restrict your access to uh i don't know maybe meat protein and here's a bag of
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crickets when you check out at the grocery uh counter so it goes well beyond just you know the
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basic uh orwellian stuff like there's a deep rabbit hole here isn't it it's a pretty slippery slope yeah
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and they can also control the extension of credit so functionally what the way you just described it
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is accurate mechanically it's a little bit different because the uh the one ledger the
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consolidation of the ledger would in my view be the federal reserves balance sheet because it's infinite
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and then when we get into credit or the extension of credit they can give anyone any interest rate
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they want and they can give anyone a loan and they don't have to worry about being paid back because
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they can't go bust so right now i don't know who you bank with but let's say your viewers bank with
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wells fargo in the united states or bank of america well your dollars that you would consider your asset
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whether it's in a checking account or savings account is a liability of that bank so what would
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happen in a cbdc world those dollar liabilities would go from the bank's balance sheet over to the
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federal reserve and then since they cannot go bust they can go ahead and give xyz disadvantage group
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home loans at zero percent interest rates or negative interest rates and if you're a straight white
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male like rich cooper and if you've been successful in life because of your you know white male privilege
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then you're not going to get a loan and if you do get a loan it's going to be at a 20 or 25 percent
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interest rate because that's the only way that we can equal the playing field between you and this
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disadvantaged group that uh hasn't had the same we'll call them opportunities that you have and so
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this is where it gets really crazy as far as individual monetary policy and then to your earlier
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point if you're doing something they don't like they can go ahead and put a cap on that or if you're
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not spending money fast enough they can go ahead and have like a negative interest rate to where you
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have to spend that money or you start to lose the perching perching excuse me the the nominal
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purchasing power or uh you just at the end of the month it just gets cut in half so you got to spend
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it now or lose it and uh this is the the type of world that i think we're going into you got to ask
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yourself why wouldn't they do this yeah it makes sense like you have to assume that the more we
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centralized government the more power the central planners have the more it's going to attract
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people who have an insatiable lust for power in other words the more it's going to attract sociopaths
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now even if you like the guy or gal in charge right now that's not the point at some at some time in
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the future as long as we continue to consolidate power then you're going to get a megalomaniac a
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stalin type or a mao or you know other people that i can't mention to keep it youtube friendly
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you're going to get one of those people in charge and then what they're going to do is they're going
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to leverage the system that has been created for them in order to control your life and this is just
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the reality of the situation that's why the only solution for this is smaller government it's not just
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changing the views of the politicians and the government we have right now so unfortunately
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i've got some good news and bad news the bad news is for most people this is unavoidable you're going
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to have to operate within this system because that's the only way that you're going to be able to hold
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have a bank account or at least a bank account it's going to be compatible with you getting a paycheck
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or you paying rent or you paying your kids tuition or buying health insurance something like that
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the good news is i think we're going to be able to initially have a hybrid system where things like
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bitcoin gold silver allow you to check out of the system and buy some of those things that could
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negatively impact your social score and that's what this cbdc road trip to freedom challenge
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is all about i'm going from santiago chile driving to buenos aires uh to meet my good friend doug
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casey for this trip this challenge i'm sorry what's the distance how many miles i don't know it's going
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to take us about a week that's all i know okay you're talking a few thousand then oh yeah yeah
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it's like if we were to drive straight through it's like 20 hours so so food gas accommodation
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you're paying for with gold silver or bitcoin only we're going to try and i think what's going to
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happen is what happens if they don't take it yeah we're then we go down to the local goldsmith
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or the goldsmith the local gold dealer or pawn shop and we say look we've got you know a tenth of
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an ounce of gold here how much will you give us and then we take the cash the hard currency and then we
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go to the gas station and fill up now if we can we're going to first and foremost use the gold
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silver or bitcoin but i i'm i'm trying to be optimistic but i want to be a realist at the same
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time and i have my doubts that we're going to be going through these certain cities in argentina
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and we're going to be able to find a hotel that takes uh bitcoin gold or silver so that's kind of the
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game plan and the reason i'm doing this rich is to show people what it would take to operate and
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transact outside of the system so people can start to prepare for that now they can they can understand
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the realities of the situation they can sit back and say okay what do i buy monthly i buy x amount of gas
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i buy x amount of beef i buy x amount of whiskey whatever it is x amount of bullets x amount of guns
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and i know that this is most likely going to negatively impact my social score which in the
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real world you know people say oh well they can pound sand okay but that social score i think moving
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forward is going to replace a credit score so if you want to get a house if you want to provide for
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your family if you want if you need credit for your business then you're going to have to play by
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these rules right or you can go live like the amish and that's fine and i think that would be respectable
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but you have to understand that that's going to be lowering your standard of living substantially so
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you have this hybrid model where i think people are going to earn money within the system they
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hopefully take their savings at the end of the month and then they transfer that into something
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that is outside of the system and then they transact as much as possible outside of the system keep a
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lot of their savings outside of the system and that's how we buy time in order for this alternative
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ecosystem to really grow and and get to a point where we can start increasing the percentage of our
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expenses that are paid for in whatever we want something that's outside of just government
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fiat so um what's the vehicle of choice for this road trip oh well here's the problem with that
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initially i i wanted to go from medellin all the way down to buenos aires and stop and take the
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pan-american highway yeah that's when i caught wind of it i thought it was an entire south american trip
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yeah i was super stoked about it unfortunately they've got a lot of problems right now in ecuador
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okay and as far as violence and just it's not a place where you want to be okay so i tried to
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figure out a way around and it just logistically it's it's basically impossible so then i was going
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to buy a car and i was going to have it transported back but once we talked to the companies we found
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that taking it across borders is very difficult if not impossible and you know it might take a year
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or something like that to get the car and it's cost prohibitive so the conclusion we came to is okay
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we got to rent a car and the good thing about chile is since it borders argentina the rental car companies
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actually allow you to take it across the border and back so bottom line we had hoped to get a really
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super cool car that would uh be kind of like a excuse me like an off-road type vehicle uh that you'd see
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what what do they the they call them nowadays they're very trendy overlanders there you go overlanders uh
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that's what i was hoping for but unfortunately we're gonna have to settle for like a a hondae santa fe
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or right or something like that are you going to be able to rent the car with uh gold bitcoin or silver
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no no there's no way so we're going to get there in fact this sunday failed the test before you even
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began it yeah well you got to cut me some slack here uh it was important richard the concept so
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it's after you get the keys and it's go yeah it's actually monday morning so we get there sunday this
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sunday march 31st and josh my assistants uh we're going to get the car we're going to get a
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hotel and then monday morning that's when we hit the ground running okay are you going to keep any
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cash reserves on you or or it's strictly silver gold bitcoin you go to a gas station you approach the
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attendant hey i need to fill up uh i have gold silver or bitcoin you don't take that then you find a
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pawn shop and then you go deal with it from there yeah or i think another and another main takeaway
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that i think we'll find from this trip is although i love gold and silver for for this type of thing
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bitcoin is vastly superior and so yeah it's easier to write it for sure yeah the problem right now with
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bitcoin is the volatility and we can get into that later because i think the mechanics behind pretty
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much all asset classes right now except for treasuries is going to lead to more and more
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volatility i call it a volatility super cycle but anyway getting back to that there's a lot of bitcoin
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cafes that i pulled up on the map that are on our route so that's going to be probably the first
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thing we'll try if we need actual hard currency is going to a bitcoin cafe then just do a peer-to-peer
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transaction right okay interesting are you guys going to film this is going to turn this into a
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vlog or oh yeah hell yeah absolutely yeah we're going to be live streaming like pretty much everything
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and then we're going to take the footage or yeah on the on the rebel capitals channel on youtube
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all right interesting okay so we actually have a caravan so i put it out there and i told anyone
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that follows me on twitter or my youtube channel that if they want they could join us
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us so i i said if you want to join us just dm my assistant josh and uh not that you can ride in
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the car with us a lot of luggage but you can follow us for the whole trip or you can follow us and be
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a part of it just for maybe one leg of the trip or i know a lot of people are going to meet us in
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buenos aires when we actually meet up with doug casey who in this trip represents freedom and uh
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uh so i i don't know how it's going to turn out we had a lot of people dm josh so we could have
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like a caravan of 10 20 30 cars uh going down the highway making this trip speaking of argentina what
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do you think of the new president there i think he's great i mean philosophically i'm i'm right in
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line he's got an uphill battle obviously what about that press piece that was out on twitter the other
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day where they were talking about him authorizing funds for uh like the transformer rainbow crowd
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yeah look no one's perfect and uh i'm not going to be completely in line with with any political
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candidate uh do i think he's better than everyone else yeah uh do i think that he's a panacea
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or perfect absolutely not but a lot of that i would have to look into the details because even if
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he's approving that you know a lot of times that can be in a bill or the overall bill is uh on net
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balance as a positive and he just has to include that just to appease the other politicians i'm not
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saying that's what's happening i'm just saying that could be so i'd want to look into the details there
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further yeah i'm i'm hopeful that he's going to do and behave as he held out to the public before he
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was elected but that that was a bit of a disappointment if i'm being honest when i read that i don't know what
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you know what the context was around it but it might have been money that was promised prior to
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him being uh you know put into power that he couldn't uh you know detour somewhere else we'll
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see what happens but yeah i'd love to hear your thoughts on you know your travels through argentina
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when you sort of uh get through there and what it's really like these days yeah another thing that
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i'm going to be focusing on is argentina for a plan b and i think everybody should be thinking
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about that right now that's prior to hitting the record button or going live you and i were talking
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about some of the groups that i've met with over the past uh couple weeks all around the world that
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are really trying to figure out how we not only maintain but increase the level of freedom and personal
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liberty that we have in the world today and one of the conclusions that everybody was talking about
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one of the main takeaways that you're i think can be some actionable advice for your audience
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is you have to have a line in the sand you and that has to be premeditated because at the end of
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the day we're all emotional creatures and i mean 2020 is a perfect example where you know all the
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government locked us in a cage for heaven's sakes and a lot of people said well it's okay they make
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excuses for it and they rationalize as to why that's okay but if you have a specific line in
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the sand this is premeditated then you have a game plan that you're going to execute you take the emoji
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the emotion outside of the decision making process so as an example my line in the sand back in 2021
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were the mandates we'll just call them the the medicine mandates just to keep it
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youtube friendly here so once the the government crossed that line i'm out i'm done i'm done i didn't
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need to think about it it's just bam you take action and i think regardless of whether you're in crypto
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whether you're in gold or or silver or whatever it is and you're sitting there patting yourself on the
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back you're saying well i can sleep well at night knowing that i have no counterparty risk
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well actually you do you still do have a lot of political risk because i don't care how much bitcoin
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you have the government can come in and just take your passport right and so you need to start thinking
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about these things and the great thing about a plan b is there's absolutely no downside to having one
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because if you never need it well fine uh now you've just got a bank account another country you might
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have a another passport you might have another residency uh and you've got maybe some real
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estate you got a great place to vacation whatever it is uh but if you do have to use it and if the
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government does cross that line then bam you're not going to have to sacrifice your freedom or the freedom
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of those people around you that you love yeah they didn't take anybody's passport during that time
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but they certainly restricted your movement because of certain you know that they wanted you to take
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to hop on a flight um yeah look what they did to the truckers in canada yeah i mean you got my goodness
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gracious sorry you've got multiple passports almost uh i've had a investor visa in columbia
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for almost uh i'm about two months shy of five years and once we hit the five-year mark then i'm eligible
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for my colombian passport so i'll have both the colombian passport and the u.s passport
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and then of course i've had residency here uh for the last five years or so where are you right now
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in medellin yeah i've i've got a lot of people lately um that have been visiting building acquiring
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rental properties airbnb type of uh properties acquiring multiple passports over the last few years
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uh columbia is certainly one of the hot spots in south america so why is columbia popular versus
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uh well if i'm being honest rich it's probably the women it's it's everything you read online
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uh about columbian women is true i i i can verify that and so as far as femininity attractiveness
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stuff like that there's still women though right like they're not like there's no women there that
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are not hypergamous there's no women there that are not solipsistic you know for example absolutely
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correct yeah absolutely so if you read you know rolo or watch your stuff all the hard wiring that you
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guys talk about the firmware is definitely applicable it's going to be applicable everywhere because it's
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just basic evolution it's human psychology so you're not going to get around that um but as far as
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let's say the the way the gals present themselves uh the the the way they look the uh the curviness if
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you will i forgot a way to say that a politically correct way lips hips and it's there you go there
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you go there you go uh yeah you're gonna have as much as you can handle uh if not more coming down
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especially here you don't get that in argentina chile brazil so you you might i i haven't been
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there but i'll definitely let you know when i go i'll dm you uh i'll text you rich and let you know
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how the gals are down in argentina but i would be very surprised because they have a much different
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culture down there right and i think a lot of the culture here in especially medellin was a or is a result
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of kind of the narcos and i so that that's still ingrained in in the the psyche here uh with the
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men and the women and i think that's one of the reasons why they you see some of the shapes down
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here that you might not see in the united states or in argentina let me um let me show the super
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chat out because it kind of relates to the cbdc's you're just talking about should we expect
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a manufacturer crisis to shoehorn cbdc as a trojan horse as liquidity freezes up and they present free
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money as a solution what percentage of your net worth you have gammon and crypto precious metals cash
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i think what we have to understand is this is all an unknown and there's going to be cross currents
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that are at play constantly so when he's talking about liquidity i mean i could argue how there would
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be more liquidity just because now everything's on the fed's balance sheet and you would have the
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repo market as an example that could be exclusively on the fed's balance sheet you could argue how that
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would increase liquidity and you could also argue how that would decrease liquidity because right now
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that service if you will or that market is really controlled by the euro dollar system in other words
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the free market uh so the the bottom line here is as they move toward this system they're going to break a
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lot of eggs and there's going to be huge opportunities that's for sure because the bigger the crisis the
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bigger the opportunity but the world is going to change uh the monetary system is going to change
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and i i don't know how centralizing the monetary system will make it more efficient unfortunately on
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net balance even when you take away the big brother stuff and the 1984 stuff i think it's going to be
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a negative although although i must be fair a cbdc will have a lot of features that the average joe
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and jane will love and this is one of the reasons why i think it'll have such a high adoption rate
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even if it was voluntary because number one your bank can't go bust and what we've seen with silicon
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valley bank first republic signature credit suisse new york community bank a lot of these entities
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that are holding your dollars or the your dollars are a liability of these entities can go bust so i
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think the pitch is going to be why not move them to the one balance sheet that can't go bust that
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would be the federal reserve and they'll be able to pay you a much higher interest rate rich i don't
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know what you're getting right now in your checking account or your savings but i would be shocked if it
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was over maybe two or three percent so why not get the exact same interest rate that the federal reserve
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is paying jamie diamond and that's interest on reserves is what they call it and without getting
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technical it's basically jp morgan's checking account held at the fed and they're getting 5.25
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so how many of your viewers right now are getting 5.25 on their checking account probably very few
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so that's going to be another feature you're going to be able to settle transactions instantly you're
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probably going to be able to exchange dollars for pesos or whatever it is mexican pesos or canadian
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dollars probably free because that's just absorbed by the fed's balance sheet so this is what we have
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to look out for and you know a lot of people don't like to acknowledge the fact that they're going to
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have these features with the cbdc but to me that's like going in and fighting john jones and not doing
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any homework you have to acknowledge his strengths and then you also have to be realistic about those
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strengths and the weaknesses and that's the only way that you're going to have any chance of not
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just defeating john jones but in that case probably surviving right and it's the exact same thing we're
00:25:44.400
up against goliath we have to realize that and so we've got to take it seriously we need to understand
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that most of the normies out there will gravitate toward a cbdc like a a moth to a flame because
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they're 90 the argument there will for sure yeah the argument is that people once people get a social
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score or once they call it a cbdc the the public is going to kind of retract from that and they're
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not going to call it a cbdc rich there's why would they do that be to suck them in is it going to be
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like sign up now and get a 50 free or something like that yeah they're going to be like look your
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bank's going bust or there's a probability of the bank going bust because i think we're only in
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ending four or five of this banking crisis so once we're in ending nine if we have like a gfc type
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of deal they're going to say hey do you really want to risk having your money and a bank that can go
00:26:34.000
bust why not just take it over to the fed you get five point two five percent plus we'll throw in some
00:26:39.760
ubi or what you know to your point we'll throw in some quote-unquote free money and then you get all
00:26:45.760
these features and people are going to use it it's going to be a no-brainer and then they're hooked on the
00:26:51.280
network and to help understand how powerful a network is or the network effect i always use
00:26:59.120
the example of a cell phone right so i'm sure every single one of your viewers right now they have
00:27:05.120
an iphone or some sort of smartphone and they're on instagram they're on youtube or whatever
00:27:11.760
or the internet for that matter okay just let's assume that tomorrow everything that you do using
00:27:18.720
your phone will be used to create a social score and that will be used against you would you continue
00:27:26.320
to use your phone yes or no so i i guarantee you that 99.9 of the people are going to say yes if
00:27:32.800
they're honest with themselves if they're honest yeah that that's the power of a network and that's
00:27:37.600
what we're up against well now i want to this though but like facebook's been collecting data on people
00:27:42.640
for years and they still freely give away their information on it yeah i mean to a certain degree
00:27:48.640
we all do i mean you and i are on on youtube i mean we try to limit it to the best of our ability
00:27:55.280
but at the end of the day uh you reach people yeah exactly exactly and that's it's ironic isn't it that
00:28:02.160
the way that you impact or affect change is by playing their by playing their rules or playing their game
00:28:10.800
if you will to the um guys last point of the question what's a percentage of your net worth is
00:28:15.920
in uh metals cash crypto yeah so i have a couple different portfolios and that's just a very recent
00:28:23.840
thing usually i've just had a long-term portfolio and i set it up in a way that i call 10 80 10 so 10
00:28:30.400
would be insurance for me that's physical gold i don't care what the price is doing it's just
00:28:35.280
i'm not owning it to get rich i'm just owning it for that insurance policy then 80 of it would be
00:28:43.680
investments and i like things that pay me to own them so as an example i bought a lot of commodity
00:28:48.560
producers back in march of 2020 and then you just collect that dividend until the price of oil gets
00:28:54.240
high and then maybe you sell it rotate into something else when i first got into investing when
00:28:59.040
i retired in 2012 i went into real estate as a good time to do that and i went in not necessarily
00:29:06.640
because i thought the prices were going to rebound or go back up to where they were today i never could
00:29:11.760
have dreamed that but at the time the cash flow was a very good deal relative to what else was out there
00:29:18.480
the cash flow is very cheap so that would be an example then the other 10 would be speculative assets
00:29:24.480
so for me something like gold miners something like uranium something like bitcoin would fall into
00:29:32.160
that category now i know a lot of your uh your viewers are gonna say oh bitcoin's not speculative
00:29:37.760
asset blah blah it's a long-term investor yeah that's fine but right now it's still in the speculative
00:29:42.400
phase i mean you've got something that's moving 10 percent up or down every hour uh that that that is a
00:29:51.360
speculative asset uh especially in the short term and i hope it does great i hope they're able to
00:29:57.520
build out this ecosystem that allows us to transact as much as possible away from the government and the
00:30:05.440
central planners and the authoritarians uh but right now we're just not yet at that stage so that's
00:30:12.240
kind of how i like to set up the portfolio the new portfolio that i have is much more uh much more
00:30:19.280
trading focused and much more short term where it's not about just setting up a 10-year portfolio
00:30:25.920
and then just not paying attention to it it's more so you know how am i making money month by month
00:30:33.360
um you mentioned instagram earlier i think you got the platform from it recently was it yeah i could
00:30:39.840
not believe that well i've been kicked off youtube and then i've i was i've been kicked off uh twitter
00:30:46.880
although that was from people just hacking into my account yeah and then twitter just not caring
00:30:52.880
about it and then more recently i got kicked off of instagram and that was a real head-scratcher because
00:30:58.400
i don't post any of the freedom liberty free market capitalism stuff on instagram it's more so just a
00:31:05.520
personal thing to you know every once in a while i'll take a picture of me playing golf with michael
00:31:10.720
chandler or out with kenny or something like that it it's it's the most benign did they give you a
00:31:17.040
reason did you get it back or is it just wiped wiped clean now no they gave it back to me oh i i did
00:31:22.080
they sent me a thing to appeal yeah and i appealed it and then a couple days later they they put it back
00:31:27.600
up did they give you a reason why it was shut down or oops sorry we our algorithms picked it up by
00:31:32.320
accident they didn't even do that i i didn't get an email or anything it just i i clicked on it one day it
00:31:37.520
was back wow interesting um you've you've been talking for a while about the market correcting
00:31:45.440
um one of the interesting conversations i think we had last time was you mentioned uh something like
00:31:51.920
the last it was nine ten or eleven times that they've started to reduce rates that the market
00:31:57.600
corrects and go south as well um they've been talking about reducing the rates where are we at right
00:32:03.360
now like what do you what do you think the uh statuses of that cycle so we have to look at the
00:32:08.640
yield curve and the right now fed funds the overnight rate is at 5.25 percent now jerome powell is coming
00:32:17.200
out and starting to speak a little more dovish as they say he's committed to doing three rate cuts
00:32:24.800
over the span of 2024 but he's not saying when he's saying it's dependent on the labor market a lot of
00:32:29.360
other things uh but the 10-year treasury yield is right around 4.1 maybe 4.2 the last time i checked
00:32:39.040
so the 10-year treasury is literally 100 basis points under the overnight rate that is not normal
00:32:48.080
what does that mean that means the market because rich if i were to lend you or if you were to lend me
00:32:55.360
let's say uh a hundred thousand dollars for the next 30 days the probability of me paying you back
00:33:02.960
and the probability of you taking inflation risk is low but if i say rich i need that hundred thousand
00:33:09.600
dollars for 30 years well you're going to charge me a much higher interest rate because you have more
00:33:16.080
inflation risk and you have more credit risk from a standpoint of 30 years who knows uh you know who
00:33:25.280
knows where i'll be what i'll be doing and therefore uh you have to be compensated for that that's why
00:33:32.080
when you look at interest rates throughout history the shorter term interest rates are lower than the
00:33:38.480
longer term interest rates and so if you see the opposite or short-term interest rates are much higher
00:33:46.080
than long-term interest rates that's the market telling you something is fundamentally wrong with
00:33:53.600
the economy and the reason the reason that happens rich in my view is because of insider information
00:34:01.040
so i know just from watching your content that prior to doing youtube uh you were an entrepreneur for
00:34:06.960
many many many years and i i won't go into the business that you're in i don't know if you share
00:34:12.560
that information but okay so you you were in the in the the credit business right and helping people
00:34:19.440
improve their credit scores so if i were to go to rich cooper i would get some insider information
00:34:27.680
as to what is happening with the consumer you know are they defaulting are they having more problems
00:34:34.880
paying back their debt what's happening with the overall credit scores uh or you would have
00:34:40.320
definitely have your finger on the pulse so you've got to look at the george soros the stan
00:34:46.560
druckenmiller the warren buffetts the paul tudor jones i i call them the financial insider the larry
00:34:53.040
finks it's like the camera in the coal mine yeah they the the same way that you had all that insider
00:34:59.520
intel for what was happening with consumer credit they have that insider intel as to what's happening
00:35:06.080
with the global banking system which has the insider intel as to what's happening with all the global
00:35:12.080
corporations you see so they're getting this in real time and the market doesn't have access
00:35:20.160
to this so if they are getting bad news bad economic news from all of these uh these multinational
00:35:29.200
corporations what are they going to do they're going to buy u.s treasuries because it's the safest
00:35:34.960
and it's the most liquid asset available and they're going to want to get the most bang for their
00:35:40.560
buck so they're going to take as much duration risk is what we call it as possible and that means
00:35:45.760
buying 10 year and 30 year treasuries that creates more demand that means the price goes up the yield
00:35:51.760
goes down and this usually happens at the same time when the federal reserve is increasing interest rates
00:35:57.120
and that's where you get the inversion of the curve and that's my answer as to why the yield curve
00:36:05.280
has almost a 100 predictive uh power if you go back to the 1950s the yield curve
00:36:15.200
inversion has preceded every single recession that we have had now it had a false positive once
00:36:21.440
in the 1960s but economic growth slowed substantially uh during that time frame
00:36:27.440
so and the curve wasn't that inverted if you look at the dynamics in addition to the curve
00:36:33.360
now i would argue that we've never been in this place before and not had a quote unquote hard
00:36:38.800
landing i'd also point out that the uk is in a technical recession germany in a technical
00:36:43.920
recession japan basically in a technical recession china is experiencing deflation for the first time
00:36:51.040
in 30 years so to have all of these global economies really struggling and somehow have the united states
00:36:58.960
economy running on all eight cylinders i think the probability of that is extremely low if you look
00:37:04.240
out over the next 12 months but it can take a lot of time rich that's the bottom line and in the interim
00:37:10.400
when the curve is inverted ironically the market usually goes up and it's when the curve starts
00:37:16.880
to un-invert by the fed dropping rates because the shit's hitting the fan that's when you start to see
00:37:22.160
the decline so i'm not saying that the market's going to crash tomorrow but i am saying if you're
00:37:26.960
a prudent investor you need to be cognizant of these risks of these risks and you need to be managing your
00:37:33.520
downside so the leading indicator where they're talking about a few rate cuts this year that's
00:37:41.360
just the tip of the iceberg there's going to be more than just a few really yeah so people look at
00:37:46.160
this as something that's bullish like oh my gosh the fed's going to drop rates and that means the
00:37:50.320
market's going to scream higher but what they forget is why the fed would be dropping rates we have
00:37:55.840
to realize that 5.25 although for a lot of people in markets right now you know the younger people
00:38:02.240
they think those are really really high interest rates but rich you and i you and i know for sure
00:38:07.440
those aren't high those are average 20 in the early 80s yeah but you can take it all the way back to the
00:38:14.000
1800s and that isn't really high that that's about average so if we have the economy running on all
00:38:20.560
eight cylinders like the central planners would have you believe then why would they be rate
00:38:25.600
lowering rates that doesn't make any sense to me and if you say well inflation is coming back down
00:38:30.960
to their two percent target well fine great uh so what we still just want uh quote-unquote normal
00:38:37.920
interest rates and again the curve is telling you that the fed is going to be dropping rates not
00:38:42.720
because we have a no landing but because we have a hard landing so you go back in time and look at all
00:38:48.560
these un-inversions due to what we call a bear uh bull steepener which is the front end coming back
00:38:54.640
down lower than the long end 100 of the time it's a result of the federal reserve responding to a
00:39:03.520
recession that we we've never seen a time when they've actually responded ahead of time to avoid a
00:39:10.880
recession once you have the curve inverted to this degree does does the upcoming election play into this
00:39:16.800
at all sure absolutely i mean that's a cross current that you have to consider and the fed is obviously
00:39:23.840
a political creature a political entity now i don't know how drome powell sees joe biden or vice versa
00:39:33.600
but i can assure you joe biden will likely be breathing down his neck and saying hey you know drop
00:39:38.960
rates or do whatever you can that is quote-unquote friendly to the market so i can get re-elected but then
00:39:44.960
you have to ask yourself is the fed at the end of the day more powerful than the market itself
00:39:50.160
and over the short term maybe over the longer midterm no chance and if you think the fed can
00:39:58.160
just come out with quantitative easing or drop rates back down to zero and it's all rainbows unicorns and
00:40:04.000
sunshine i would suggest going back to march of 2020 when the fed had to have an emergency meeting
00:40:10.080
and they're supposed to meet on a wednesday they met on a sunday and they dropped rates down to zero
00:40:16.240
they committed to over a trillion dollars a day in repo and they basically announced qe infinity and
00:40:22.240
the very next day the market was down by roughly 1500 points and the market continued to tank rich
00:40:29.520
until the government came out and said that they were going to do all this fiscal spending in the form of
00:40:35.520
the cares act that's when the market started to have that v-shaped recovery and go back up so the
00:40:42.960
yes there is a fed put but at a certain point the market forces are going to overwhelm anything the fed
00:40:51.200
does it seems like there you know it's not a question of if it's just a matter of when this
00:40:57.680
correction is going to happen and how hard or how soft it's going to be uh but based on the indicators
00:41:02.800
that you're looking at have you started to move out of positions from the market into stuff that's
00:41:08.400
more stable are you moving more into cash or yeah but i mean i did it way too early i'll be the first
00:41:14.080
person to admit that it was way early timing these things is is very very difficult uh and then it goes
00:41:21.520
back to what your objectives are right if your objectives like guys um well i think you're a perfect
00:41:30.000
example and i throw myself in that same category your your main objective right now is just don't
00:41:34.720
lose any of your pursing car like just i'm in a very good place let's at the very least let's maintain
00:41:41.280
that and if i can get a 10 or 15 return over the long run playing not to lose there you go there you
00:41:48.800
go in life i i think it should be the opposite playing i think you should be playing when you're younger
00:41:53.760
yeah yeah and even now for guys like you and i i think you should play to win but in just different
00:41:59.200
areas yeah when when you're looking at your ability to maintain your lifestyle especially at our age i
00:42:07.360
think you've and especially based on what we've uh achieved it's a different dynamic so uh if i'm
00:42:15.840
looking at it you know through that lens i would much prefer to err on the side of caution
00:42:20.560
and that's exactly what i've done so the way i've been playing this is i'm just sitting with
00:42:26.640
the majority of my portfolio in gold and t-bills and 90 t-bills and just being paid 5.5 roughly on
00:42:34.400
those and then just having a gold or gold miners or uh well with that it's it's a combination of
00:42:40.320
physical and uh the sprot trust and i i'd prefer that it's all physical but with my living situation
00:42:47.120
that that's very uh difficult to do so it's a combination of that and the sprot trust
00:42:54.000
and so that's how i'm sitting back playing the yield curve and then once it uninverts the probability
00:42:58.960
is high that i give an opportunity to go in there and buy something cheap and that's when i take that
00:43:03.600
dry powder that's currently earning 5.5 percent turn that into dollars take those dollars and then buy
00:43:10.400
the hard assets that hopefully are paying me to own them that i want to hold on to uh for the long run
00:43:23.840
the new york stock exchange is at let's see if we can find a chart here right now
00:43:31.120
charts composite data you know while you're doing that if i'm a young guy though that just has let's
00:43:37.280
say 20 or 30 000 and i've got a decent job and i'm just starting off in life and or i'm starting
00:43:43.040
out in life and my objective is to get to the rich cooper level or the george gammon level as soon as i
00:43:48.880
can then it's a completely completely different strategy then what i'm doing is i'm realizing that
00:43:55.360
we're going into a cycle of massive volatility and i would probably be obviously much more short term
00:44:03.440
but i'd i'd be long like nvidia or something like that or i'd be long bitcoin but i would do that and
00:44:10.160
i'd be hyper focused on my stops nvidia is at the point now where grandparents are talking about it
00:44:16.320
and usually when your grandparents start talking about stocks it's like okay it's time to sell
00:44:22.640
yeah i mean look on one hand i completely agree and you're spot on on the other hand if i'm 25 years
00:44:29.840
old and i've got a decent job i got 25 i i'm i'm potentially taking a flyer but but don't get me
00:44:36.720
wrong rich i'm not just yoloing it what i would do is i would set up that trade to make sure that i'm
00:44:45.440
limiting my downside in case i get the timing wrong and then i've got asymmetry in the trade so as an
00:44:52.640
example i would i would do like what they call a vertical spread with options uh so if i'm right
00:45:00.880
over the next month then i make x amount but if i'm wrong i define how much i lose as far as a
00:45:08.400
percentage of my portfolio where what most people do is they just say oh i like nvidia i'm gonna go
00:45:13.840
long and then they just sit there and hope and pray and what ends up happening is they do the
00:45:18.720
opposite of what you should do they cut their winners short and they ride their losers right
00:45:26.800
because let's say you get into that nvidia position at a thousand you think it's going to 1300 over the
00:45:32.240
next month and it starts to go against them well they'll sit there and say oh i don't want to cut
00:45:36.560
my position i'm just going to wait until it comes back up to a thousand and then i'm going to sell so i
00:45:41.040
don't have to realize that loss or what they do is it starts to go in their favor and it goes up to
00:45:47.280
let's say 10 50 or or 1100 and they say oh my gosh i've already made five grand uh i don't want
00:45:53.920
to jeopardize you know this uh capital gain that i've had so i'm going to go ahead and sell right now
00:46:00.720
where if you look at the pros they do the complete opposite they cut their winners almost immediately
00:46:07.760
but they let excuse me they cut their losers almost immediately but they let their winners ride right
00:46:13.360
yeah yeah there was a book that talked about that i can't remember what it was called i read it like
00:46:17.520
it's every single trading book that has ever been written by anyone credible and and if your viewers
00:46:23.920
want uh some suggestions read the market wizards books it's one of the reasons why with my new setup
00:46:29.520
here i put books right up there and one of them is uh well the first one's beat the dealer that teaches
00:46:35.520
about probabilities but then the next one is uh market wizards by jack schwager he has three or four
00:46:43.040
additions of that and i i can't suggest them enough especially for the young guys who who want to
00:46:49.520
maybe take a little bit more risk jack schwager jack how do you spell schwager uh
00:46:54.960
uh s-c-h-w-a-g-e-r okay um so the current new york stock exchange composite uh is at 18 114 when we had
00:47:08.960
the uh scamdemic a number of years ago it dropped to the nine thousands what sort of correction are you
00:47:14.880
anticipating for this uh landing that's all i do you think it could be as strong as the 9 000 range that we
00:47:24.560
saw with the scamdemic absolutely it could it could also be zero i mean the market could go up
00:47:31.760
uh that that's why so many people on my channel i talk about the economy going into a recession
00:47:38.000
that's something that i can predict with much more confidence but they say okay george if the
00:47:43.280
economy is going into recession then that's going to be negative for the stock market and therefore
00:47:48.080
let's go out and short the s p 500 let's buy puts on the s p 500 basically benefiting
00:47:54.400
if the market goes down and i always say look i can't give you personal investing advice but me
00:47:59.120
personally i wouldn't do that why because you never know what the central planners are going to do for
00:48:03.920
heaven's sakes it is true that the market's going to overwhelm them but maybe the recession isn't bad
00:48:09.680
enough for whatever the response is to actually take hold i mean they could come up with like the
00:48:15.280
bank of japan and buy equities for heaven's sakes the bank of japan owns like 60 of the outstanding
00:48:22.320
sovereign debt i mean they've done crazy crazy things so why the united states wouldn't follow
00:48:28.960
that path just to avoid any financial pain i mean you got me i think that would be the path
00:48:35.200
of least resistance so that's what i would expect so the way i prefer to play a recession
00:48:42.640
is uh going long the two-year treasury because the two-year treasury is pretty much tied at the hip
00:48:50.160
to the federal reserve overnight interest rate so assuming that we have a recession the feds dropped
00:48:55.760
drop rates which is almost definitely what they would do then you're going to benefit by the decrease
00:49:03.200
in yield or the increase in price of that to your treasury so i got um i mentioned this last time we
00:49:09.840
did a show but i got a good friend of mine that's a money manager so he's a non he has a question for
00:49:14.400
you because he likes to challenge your uh takes on certain things uh so last spoke july 2023 he said
00:49:23.680
that you thought the market was in trouble and within 12 to 16 months so this was last summer
00:49:29.280
within 12 to 16 months it's been eight months and it's up 20 percent since then does he still think
00:49:34.960
july to december 2024 is the fall i i mean again as far as timing it's it's almost impossible to know
00:49:44.000
i mean he's he's what he's insinuating is spot on uh this inversion of the curve has been incredibly
00:49:52.640
long in fact i think we may be at the point right now where it's even longer than what we saw 2006 2007
00:49:59.120
that preceded the gfc so let's go into why george gammon would be wrong and when i would even come
00:50:08.720
on on my channel you know this is not about ego i'm happy to admit if i'm wrong but i can quantify
00:50:16.400
that pretty easily so if we see again the overnight rate let's say is here the 10-year treasury is here
00:50:23.280
if we see an uninversion by what they call a bear steepener so that means the long end of the curve
00:50:30.080
going up instead of a bowl steepener which would be the short end or the front end of the curve going
00:50:35.360
down and if we see that sustained then i i'll be the first person to admit that i was wrong and this time
00:50:42.800
is absolutely different and then i would have to figure out mechanically why you know what what happened
00:50:49.040
that made this time different than pretty much every other time going back to the 1950s but to his
00:50:56.240
specific point uh i don't know i i have absolutely no idea i don't even know if the market would crash
00:51:03.280
and uh again i think a much better way to play a hard landing is the two-year treasury or the curve
00:51:14.800
inverting due to a bowl steepener because regardless of what happens with the stock market
00:51:21.440
if they're trying to prevent a recession in the real economy you know almost for sure and again
00:51:28.800
there are no certainties only probabilities but like a 99 probability that they would drop rates
00:51:33.680
in which case the price of the two-year treasury is going to go up and he's got a follow-up to it he says
00:51:39.440
if the far if the far if the fed starts to cut interest rates and 30-year mortgage rates get down
00:51:45.680
to five percent sorry five percentish does he think real estate in the u.s will take off again
00:51:52.480
well so you gotta you gotta ask yourself why would they cut rates so in the past every single time
00:51:58.960
they've cut rates was due to the hitting the fan right so let's just assume that mortgage rates
00:52:06.240
go to from i don't know what they are now let's just say they're seven percent let's say they go
00:52:10.480
down to five percent or four percent okay but the unemployment rate in that environment is going from
00:52:16.480
four percent up to eight percent or ten percent so and then lending standards are going to get far tighter
00:52:26.960
so yes rates are going down but is that a net positive for the real estate market probably not and
00:52:34.800
i'd go back to the gfc i mean look we had rates plummet in 2009 2010 but what happened to the housing
00:52:42.880
market it went straight down until it bottomed out in august of 2012 so just because we have low rates
00:52:51.280
that that isn't necessarily bullish in fact low rates are usually an indicator that the economy is
00:52:57.840
unhealthy and is often an indicator that although money's cheap money's tight and most people think
00:53:04.560
that low interest rates equal money being loose and that's not the case um got a friend here in
00:53:11.760
the super chat asking about the rain tax in canada i think that's a toronto mayoral tax that was
00:53:17.760
introduced apparently i haven't heard about that enough uh i might bodge this up somebody in the
00:53:22.880
chat or the comments can correct me afterwards but apparently if you don't have enough
00:53:26.400
uh lawn on your property then there's a tax because of runoff or like rain runoff or something like
00:53:35.040
i don't know they keep making up these new taxes to live in toronto i don't know why people live in
00:53:40.160
a big city anymore it's just absurd to uh deal with all these inconveniences and tax rates uh with
00:53:46.880
less freedom and more wokeness and rainbows shoved down your throat yeah but again that's i think that's a great
00:53:52.080
reason why everyone should have a line in the sand yeah and it should be very defined and everyone's
00:53:56.800
line in the sand is going to be different i'm not saying there's a right or wrong it's the whole boil
00:54:00.240
the frog slowly though right like everybody says they've got a line in the sand but it's like okay
00:54:04.240
take one step back another step back and you you know you keep walking backwards over the line in
00:54:08.640
the sand very very slowly you don't that's my point moving the line right but that's my point
00:54:13.360
but if you don't have a line to begin with there there's no way that you can avoid being that frog
00:54:18.240
yeah so you've not only got to have a line but then you have to be disciplined enough to execute
00:54:24.640
your game plan when and if the government crosses that line um got a little bit of time left um
00:54:32.240
you've got the rebel capitalist event coming up in may june um it's coming up very quickly um you
00:54:39.280
invited me as a guest so i've i've got a speaking slot slot there yeah can you tell everybody what's
00:54:46.240
happening at the event is there a link that that they can go to to buy a ticket um that you can
00:54:50.720
mention and give them some insight on what's going to happen there yeah thanks for letting me plug it
00:54:54.400
rich it's rebelcapitalslive.com and they can see past speakers we've been doing this now for
00:55:01.280
about three years and they can see the speaker lineup that we have for this year it's uh i try to
00:55:08.080
bring a diverse group of guys and gals that i like talking to and so it's got components of real estate
00:55:17.680
gold crypto the stock market uh macroeconomics uh we've got guys like jeff snyder mike green
00:55:26.320
there uh but then we also have guys like kenny mccaroy uh kiyosaki stops by every once in a while
00:55:32.160
yeah and we've got guys uh that are in the plan b space freedom and liberty like my good friend
00:55:38.400
robert barnes i want to hear about that yeah yeah he's a constitutional lawyer that represents alex
00:55:44.880
jones and a lot of his uh let's say adventures yeah and and then we've got mark moss a good buddy
00:55:53.040
of mine who's uh he's a good macro guy but he kind of uh is in the bitcoin space i think you'd call
00:55:59.120
him maybe a maxi and so we're bringing all these incredible people together the one common denominator
00:56:05.520
we all have is we are hardcore proponents of freedom liberty and free market capitalism so if
00:56:15.760
you want to be a part of that group you can just check it out at rebelcapitalistlive.com yeah and i'm
00:56:21.040
gonna have to tailor my talk to that theme um so i'll be mindful of that when i put it all together
00:56:27.760
um yeah so grab a ticket guys i'll be there is is robert kiyosaki gonna be there this year you
00:56:34.240
said he might stop by yeah so he robert you know i'm very good friends with robert and he knows he has
00:56:42.320
an open invitation to anything i do and so although he's not scheduled to be a speaker uh it's not unlike
00:56:50.160
robert robert to text me a couple days prior and say hey i'm gonna be there and i want to talk about
00:56:57.360
x y and z and i'm like okay we'll make it happen so uh we have some vip guests that are coming we've got
00:57:05.120
the uneducated economist who's great on youtube we've got viva fry who's uh partners with barnes and
00:57:11.920
kind of that freedom and liberty space uh he was up in canada he was and then he got the hell out of
00:57:16.480
dodge he went down to florida yeah yeah so a lot of just super super cool people but the main benefit
00:57:24.880
is just rubbing elbows with people that share your world view and i call them rebel capitalists
00:57:31.040
i'm gonna i'm gonna message robert i got his number i'm gonna ask him if he's coming because
00:57:34.400
i'd like to meet him um yeah good show george yeah i appreciate you popping in saying hi and uh
00:57:41.360
sharing some wisdom um you know with our followers uh you know thanks for all the super chats and uh
00:57:46.880
you know the gratitude uh go check out uh george's channel rebel capitalist channel and uh george gammon
00:57:52.800
i've tagged it in the title uh he's got loads and there's more content than you can consume there
00:57:58.960
and i definitely want to hear about your road trip uh the cbdc uh challenge you know the gold silver
00:58:05.760
bitcoin sort of road trip to see how that unfolds i'll be uh i'll be watching and looking forward to
00:58:10.800
hearing the updates on that so yeah we'll be live streaming it on the rebel capital's channel from
00:58:15.520
the road so i'm sure we'll go through a lot of fun times a lot of trials and tribulations and at the
00:58:21.520
very least it'll be an incredible adventure that we can share with everyone and and again help them
00:58:27.520
prepare for what i think is coming yeah enjoy that road trip are you still into um the diesel trucks or
00:58:33.360
the supercars or what do you what do you do in car wise these days because i know that you're a bit
00:58:37.280
of a petrol head yeah so that's the one drawback to medellin uh the gals are great the cost of living
00:58:44.480
the weather everything but uh they don't really have highways here and they definitely don't have
00:58:50.480
any roads where you could drive like like a mclaren you know i had one uh last time i was in the
00:58:55.680
states so i kind of reserve that for uh when i go back to the usa you know temporarily or i'm spending
00:59:02.960
time in europe or something like that but what i have done to scratch the itch down in medellin is
00:59:09.600
a couple different things i bought an fj cruiser the other day which i absolutely love i didn't know
00:59:15.200
if i'd like it uh but now that i have it and i've taken it off-roading and i take it to some of the
00:59:20.800
towns and the exterior in the countryside it's oh it's one of my favorite cars i've ever had it's so
00:59:26.240
cool so awesome and then as far as the speed uh they are setting up a track here in medellin and
00:59:33.360
they do have a track up in bogota where you can kind of run the quarter mile on friday night saturday
00:59:38.880
night something like that so i bought a 2014 e 63 and then what i did is i had it tuned and as you i
00:59:48.480
didn't know how that would work but as you know that car uh has a lot of capacity and those turbo turbo v8
00:59:55.920
right that's right yeah you can get seven eight hundred horsepower easily out of that exactly so
01:00:00.160
stock it comes 550 and usually when you do a tune it only adds about 25 or 50 horsepower but there's
01:00:05.840
so much capacity they're not using those turbo chargers if you get a good tuner to your point
01:00:10.720
they can really ramp up the horsepower and he got it up to about 700 and i've had you know the lambos
01:00:18.640
i've had the ferraris i've had the mclarens and this thing in a straight line i would argue is
01:00:24.400
probably faster than all it's basically like a german hellcat so that's what i'm doing right
01:00:28.720
now as far as vehicles awesome all right man well appreciate you uh stopping by and saying hi guys
01:00:33.840
go check out george's stuff um i'll definitely have them on in the future and if you're at the uh
01:00:38.640
rebel capitalist event coming up i'll i'll see you guys there because i'll be there thanks man thanks rich