Radio 3Fourteen - Anatoly Karlin - Living in Moscow & The Ukrainian Russian Conflict 101

00:00:00.000 welcome anatolia a slavic journalist living in moscow thanks for being here uh hello lada very

00:00:20.560 nice to be with you you know i was joking around before we started that these kinds of conversations

00:00:25.000 you know me as an american living in it i'm also living in an occupied country this might be

00:00:30.360 illegal soon to talk to russians in america i'm serious uh well i mean why make it illegal when

00:00:38.720 you can just kick people out of uber than uh from uh airbnb so just deprive them of the ability to

00:00:46.440 make a living and seems to seems to be more efficient that way frankly yeah it's true it's

00:00:51.160 true well i of course i want to talk all about the ukraine russia situation what it's actually

00:00:56.200 like to live in russia today because it's a total media blackout for us we don't hear from russians

00:01:01.420 or russian journalists but let's get a little bit into your uh background story as your parents i

00:01:06.740 know they left russia but then you repatriated so tell us a little bit about that and that experience

00:01:12.080 uh okay yeah sure um so i left russia in 1994 when i was six years old i spent about a decade in the uk

00:01:21.760 then about a decade in the us and uh repatriated to russia in 2016. well i mean i enjoyed my time and

00:01:29.600 they handle the world broadly speaking uh but uh at the end of the day i identified as a doshan and uh it

00:01:38.560 ultimately seemed to me incongruent to some extent uh cringe to uh maintain that identity uh while uh

00:01:46.960 living on foreign soil essentially uh so uh yeah i mean that was the the primary ultimately impulse

00:01:54.240 for me to repeat it now where were you living when you left russia i'm sorry i didn't catch that

00:01:59.440 uh when i was uh in the bay area in the u.s okay oh yeah san francisco yeah yeah lots of russians

00:02:08.140 there too i still have lots of family there my parents grew up in the avenues there in the 50s

00:02:12.220 before there was a syringe and poop on the streets uh now now in your view is living in america i know

00:02:19.180 you were still young but um younger uh versus russia do you like russia better do you think it has more

00:02:25.620 to offer uh well i mean uh what i would say is that uh basically all the amenities uh and the

00:02:34.240 societies that you have in uh in uh something like the bay area i mean they're accessible in moscow

00:02:39.940 people do seem to have very um very much out of date impressions i mean there's uh things like uh

00:02:46.080 footballs if you want to ski you can well a flight to uh sochi is uh is uh more expensive and a bit

00:02:52.920 longer than uh driving to uh to tahoe or whatever uh but it's not not not ultimately a big deal uh so

00:03:00.180 um if you're talking about just quality of life issues uh frankly there's everything in moscow that

00:03:06.700 you have in the bay area probably frankly like even if you're talking about various uh french

00:03:11.680 communities like transhumanists for instance i mean the silicon valley is obviously the primary

00:03:16.500 hub for them but uh moscow has tons of them as well uh so yeah i mean if you're if you're looking to

00:03:22.460 have uh people having distinct conversations with or uh to um do various uh hobbies or like pursue

00:03:32.060 like sweetly things like stuff white people like uh then yeah i mean i mean moscow isn't any worse for

00:03:38.600 that in my opinion than uh than the bay area and of course considerably cheaper as well although of

00:03:44.740 course that's mitigated by local salaries uh being correspondingly lower uh as well so it's not

00:03:50.960 old sunshine and those is obviously i mean obviously a uh 70 years of uh of communist economics uh still

00:03:58.660 making itself felt to a large extent uh so i mean that's inevitable yeah uh but uh overall overall

00:04:05.240 overall i'm uh i'm positive on non-duscious prospects uh and it is a good feeling to have all these uh

00:04:13.240 all these amenities and entertainments accessible to myself while they're being uh amongst people i consider

00:04:19.660 to be my own yeah exactly now do you think you're in the big city do you think that russia is going

00:04:24.760 to be more susceptible to global homo i know you know that term in the coming years because some

00:04:29.340 people on this side uh on our side of the world speculate that oh well russia is probably just

00:04:34.780 20 years behind or so what's your opinion on that uh well my opinion on that is that there was a

00:04:42.420 substantial risk and some indications that this was happening amongst the sort of young university

00:04:48.560 university students in particular uh at the more prestigious universities but i mean that's how it

00:04:53.780 always works right it starts to seep in into the demographic cohorts which are most integrated

00:05:00.560 uh with uh with the west and spread for there essentially uh of course the uh distancing that

00:05:08.060 russia has been doing from the west uh which has the lakes are elevated for obvious reasons uh since

00:05:14.780 uh february uh 22nd um that's going to put a major grip on that uh so i'm uh relatively white-pilled about

00:05:23.320 that this is uh i mean i mean yeah i i i do i do agree with it with this that uh those stats do exist

00:05:31.220 uh but um like even relative to a country like poland uh russia is sort of like less advanced in that

00:05:38.200 process yeah now putin's on the screen now do you like putin do the majority of people like putin i

00:05:46.880 know there's some uh nationalists you know in other countries that say well he he might also be

00:05:51.360 controlled by foreign interests namely uh zionists what's your thought on that i mean i think there's

00:05:58.580 a lot of uh schizophrenia about yeah and a lot of sort of conspiracy uh theories um i mean i could sort

00:06:05.400 of uh see that point why nationalists might have a problem with putin because yes i mean if you're

00:06:09.960 talking about the mid to late 2010s in particular he was uh uh the russian state was undoubtedly

00:06:17.240 repressing nationalist organizations under the article took on and dated to hate speech laws and uh there

00:06:23.560 was also very strong feelings of the rather uh that's a betrayal uh well it's sort of like a comment

00:06:30.040 uh uh in amongst nationalists borrowed from the ukrainians uh in in regards to uh that didn't pass

00:06:35.880 for instance a lot of suspicions that uh putin uh was sort of like um planning to abandon that entire

00:06:42.360 project uh so there was uh like uh increasing immigration uh labor migration from central asia which

00:06:50.520 again is a sort of sensitive issue amongst nationalists uh but since uh since uh the late 2010s uh

00:06:57.880 uh uh it had life has become a lot better for the nationals because uh at that point putin has

00:07:04.280 started uh sort of fulfilling most of the core demands of of the nationalism uh mainstream national

00:07:10.920 nationalism i'm not talking about like marginal wick nuts and 1448 type of people yeah but but mainstream

00:07:17.320 nationalism so i discussed that at considerable length in my article one of my last articles for the

00:07:22.680 uns review it's called russia's nationalist turn uh but to briefly summarize uh uh on all those points

00:07:29.720 which i just mentioned there was a change for the better so uh uh article 282 uh the hate speech law

00:07:37.080 was decriminalized uh three four years ago a three years ago uh the immigration laws were progressively

00:07:46.120 uh uh reoriented uh reoriented uh towards towards privileging uh uh russian speakers and uh people with uh

00:07:53.080 russian uh sort of family backgrounds and uh uh uh the um uh the constitution was the the rewritten to

00:08:03.000 de facto define russians as the uh uh the nation forming the state the state forming uh uh people of the

00:08:11.000 russian federation uh so why is this significant uh well because uh i mean a lot of actually eastern

00:08:18.600 east side of european countries do have a clause in their constitution which which define which says

00:08:23.480 that the state belongs to the uh sort of the titular nationality of that country and even the israel

00:08:32.360 for instance uh defines itself as a jewish state even though uh israel is only 75 jewish whereas russia is

00:08:41.560 almost 85 percent ethnic russian so why uh should we uh exercise this anti-modesty that relative to

00:08:49.000 the israelis for instance who would do not feel at all ashamed that defining themselves as the sort of

00:08:55.000 like that that israel belongs to jews which is okay from their perspective so why can't we have the same

00:09:00.440 thing so yeah i mean and uh obviously for for obvious reasons uh like in the summer last year in

00:09:07.080 particular uh integration processes with belarus accelerated and now uh putin has uh sort of uh

00:09:14.280 started the uh dissolving the ukraine question in force uh so basically all the uh uh political

00:09:22.040 demands of national nationalism have in effect been fulfilled over the over the three years it was a

00:09:27.480 pretty sudden uh for many unexpected turn uh but i mean for people who are not obsessed with uh

00:09:35.640 like personal issues they have with putin or with various conspiracy theories about uh how he's a

00:09:41.480 zionist or a finn i mean there's some pretty funny theories about yeah we've heard it all too but you're

00:09:48.200 you're right he goes back and forth on different things and he said some incredibly great things that

00:09:52.680 we agree with that we've said i mean many times and the way that he's calling out the west for all

00:09:56.760 their garbage you know the way he's uh you know discussed communism in the past and all that so

00:10:02.360 there's a little uh flipping and flopping backing back and forth which i i do want to get into

00:10:07.720 that later about the denotification stuff as well we'll get into that but uh biden claimed recently

00:10:12.760 there there was 200 000 russians that were fleeing russia and i even heard that this includes gays

00:10:19.560 who are going to istanbul because i guess it's a safer to go to a muslim country in russia now is

00:10:25.800 is there any truth to this i mean 200 000 russians leaving and if and if they are it's the russians

00:10:32.120 that you don't want so go ahead and leave right be doing you a favor honestly well i i mean yeah i

00:10:37.480 mean 200 000 uh i mean yeah probably true frankly um 145 million people not that relevant to be frank

00:10:45.480 like even if you even if you're talking about young people in particular i mean yes they are uh and

00:10:51.960 deniable that they're more money than the higher skilled than the average uh but uh on the other

00:10:57.640 hand i mean we have to be realistic about these things this is uh like millions of russians left in

00:11:03.080 the 1990s i mean the uh uh even from like a human capital perspective the diaspora from the uh late 80s

00:11:10.760 to 90s was vastly bigger than whatever's happening now uh uh not not even mentioned the white immigration

00:11:17.880 which as i understand as you said you're a part of uh so yeah i mean you're part of the white

00:11:22.760 immigration and i'm part of the uh sort of like the diaspora that's not okay during the yeltsin either

00:11:30.120 uh this is basically an order of magnitude if not uh if not more uh smaller than that uh that's the

00:11:35.960 first thing the second thing frankly i think there's a very high uh chance that many of those people

00:11:41.080 will uh uh sort of spend some time in belisi and tough cat which is where they actually are uh because

00:11:48.680 those are the only countries which which it's easy for russians to sort of like uh go into it's not

00:11:54.760 like the west itself it's open to them it's not like they're even giving out visas uh to uh doshans

00:12:00.040 which is appreciated frankly uh that's that's a good thing for the yeah uh the end of the day but yeah

00:12:06.200 i mean they have limited savings so i mean i don't really know what their game plan is i mean yes

00:12:11.160 some of them will find uh like a job or whatever in germany uh but um uh it's not as if uh the uh

00:12:19.960 western europe is going to be swimming in jobs anytime soon uh since they're basically creating

00:12:25.320 the the economy by uh diffusing russian gas so i mean you know that that the tax is going down like a

00:12:32.040 stone and uh so that's the first thing i don't think the sort of western attempts to essentially

00:12:38.200 cut this out of the u.s and out of the world economy uh going to uh like happen without the

00:12:44.840 bouncing on the west itself uh the solid fertilizer by the prices that's probably another uh big refugee

00:12:53.160 wave uh in another few months time and actually a probably a legitimate one as opposed to 2015 because

00:13:00.680 i mean okay like fleeing uh hunger is sort of like a wall is pretty much a legitimate reason for

00:13:07.400 uh like refugee them as does it gets uh so uh so yeah i mean that's what that's what i'm asking those uh

00:13:14.840 those decisions who have uh uh who have led i mean where where are they going next i mean

00:13:20.760 like what was the game plan uh not uh i i i don't think i i think the economic impact on the

00:13:27.080 dutchian economy per se is going to be uh limited because at the end of the day most of dush's uh

00:13:32.920 export earnings are from oil better chemicals natural gas uh so uh the world economy isn't in a

00:13:41.160 position to sort of block them and even if the west somehow managed to block it i mean it would just

00:13:46.040 sell it to china and things yeah uh so um i don't i don't think that it's going to be uh frankly that that

00:13:53.560 big of a deal uh it's by and large it's going to uh to uh stay away long term in my opinion yeah

00:14:00.760 it'll be west it'll be worse for the west and russia will will probably be okay that's what's

00:14:06.760 going to happen uh you know here we're getting major gas ikes and they're blaming everything

00:14:10.760 on putin even biden talking about you know supply was it food shortages putin like everything is putin's

00:14:16.680 fault right now it's crazy even though we know that this is all part of their agenda anyway that they

00:14:20.920 had in the plans before we'll get into that a great reset later but i want to ask you what do

00:14:25.160 russians think of all the uh russophobia and the putin bans in the west like it is just insane i i

00:14:32.200 saw even his uh black belt was pulled right like his his title for that and they're even banning russian

00:14:38.920 blue breeds of cats from competitions like it is just utterly insane we've never seen it this insane

00:14:45.800 what do russians think of it well i mean i think ordinary russians don't really care very much

00:14:51.560 because uh now again they don't really have much of a reason to care because uh uh the average

00:14:56.920 russian probably is uh isn't really all that integrated with uh with the west so for him i

00:15:02.120 mean to the extent that they even like normally russians call it their board it's usually countries

00:15:06.200 like turkey for instance uh which uh wow which is not cutting cutting like sort of like uh which is not

00:15:13.160 battling russians uh from flying in anyway uh uh one of the supreme ironies of these of many of these

00:15:21.080 sanctions as i've noted on twitter uh is that it uh hits precisely the most westernized uh uh classes

00:15:28.280 of versions and the ones uh which have uh like the closest size there so for instance they banned the

00:15:33.720 monetization of twitch steamers well i mean they're probably more more than the average that's that's for

00:15:40.360 sure uh they've banned monetization on only fans for instance and pornhub and those girls certainly

00:15:47.000 don't uh don't have don't uh uh don't vote for putin um so yeah i mean it's it's one of the supreme

00:15:54.680 ironies that okay uh in in in great britain uh one of the earliest sanctions was that russian citizens were

00:16:01.880 constrained to uh have a deposit of no more than 50 000 uh british pounds and british banks

00:16:09.240 uh uh uh well again who does this affect it affects uh doshans in uh in that in london uh you know

00:16:17.080 which which is the what is probably the world's most uh anti-putin anti-united dussia constituency on the

00:16:23.240 entire planet uh it's uh doshans who literally live in london yeah exactly uh so like in a recent

00:16:31.400 like constitutional amendment vote i mean like more than 80 percent of them voted against it which

00:16:38.600 which was sort of like accepted 70 or something like that in dussia uh 80 of them voted against it

00:16:45.160 uh the uh banning uh of visas for dushans well again i mean who who visits sort of western europe for

00:16:53.160 holidays uh again it's the more western leaning questions i mean the normal types again if they go

00:16:59.480 even if they go abroad they go to turkey or therefore for that matter they go to crimea or

00:17:03.800 searching whatever yeah yeah we were joking so yeah one of the supreme ironies is is that is that the

00:17:09.160 west is uh disproportionately punishing its own people yeah who uh who is sort of finding something

00:17:16.360 in the situation of uh of uh being very unpopular in their own country yeah uh as well as uh getting

00:17:24.360 punished by uh by the western plans that's funny to me we were joking around oh no they're not going

00:17:29.960 to have you know porn hub and netflix and all this uh degenerate crap you know that really just ruins

00:17:35.960 nations i was like oh people are saying how to remove globo homo overnight joking around invade a country

00:17:43.000 right now so let's talk into let's talk about that um because just some one-on-one stuff about the

00:17:49.960 founding of ukraine because it was important land that was taken uh from the russians divided by the

00:17:56.200 bolsheviks ukraine was basically lenin's idea so not off to a great start right away but maybe you can

00:18:01.560 just quickly summarize that uh one-on-one version for people that might not okay yeah sure my my personal

00:18:06.920 viewpoint and uh i think the viewpoint of many in in in russia uh is that uh uh russia ukraine

00:18:15.240 builders or the territories uh that uh that sort of constitute them uh have been in a common

00:18:20.760 civilizational space uh since uh the uh since christianity came to uh to lose uh in uh 1988

00:18:30.120 so for two and a half centuries for two centuries it existed such as the mongol invasion the expansion of

00:18:37.320 the of uh the duchy of lithuania and the polish kingdom uh sort of split split the russian land up

00:18:44.600 and uh the uh early vision stars made it their historical mission to gather up the so-called

00:18:50.200 vision the russian lands and they largely achieved that uh over the ensuing centuries uh then came uh

00:18:58.600 and uh and yes obviously uh as as a pre-industrial state uh there was uh there were a lot of regional

00:19:07.240 variations a lot of regional dialects for obvious reasons uh but frankly this was the case in

00:19:13.480 in many many countries so uh the northern french and the southern french were mutually unintelligible

00:19:20.360 uh like all throughout the middle ages and early modern period it was really only the spread of uh

00:19:26.120 mass schooling that unified the french nation linguistically uh even in uh england uh like

00:19:33.240 there were parts of it like cornwall which sort of like spoke their own uh celtic language and i think it's

00:19:38.200 that's a very natural process that many countries uh go through during the uh the era of industrialization

00:19:52.440 mass urbanization uh which uh the russian empire was embarking on by the late uh 19th century uh the as i

00:20:01.560 see it basically the bolsheviks uh uh artificially uh divided the nation nation so the beladushan so

00:20:09.400 it's socialist the public uh even though like like that practically no beladushan considered themselves uh

00:20:15.000 to be like like beladushan uh in in the in those uh in those periods and uh in in in in the ukraine as

00:20:23.000 well so i mean you could make an argument that the uh areas uh of uh that galicia which uh belong to uh

00:20:31.000 uh the austral hungarian empire really was by that point a separate nation something separate from

00:20:36.920 uh from the russian people because yes i mean it had been part of uh of uh the midi of russ initially

00:20:44.360 but it had spent uh frankly nine nine centuries or so sundered from it so i mean that's a long period

00:20:51.720 if you probably realistically yes it sort of like built its own identity uh by that point uh but as the

00:20:59.800 guards as the guards as the guards uh the the rest of ukraine as the guards especially the territories

00:21:04.680 of novella sea which is uh novella which is the southern and eastern ukraine uh which were frankly

00:21:11.320 only like really only even belong to ukraine uh because of uh russian arms uh which uh which uh

00:21:18.200 conquered them from the crimean hammer uh in the in the 18th century and allowed its settlement by uh by

00:21:24.520 both russians and uh and uh the little russians as ukrainians were called back then uh that's

00:21:30.920 basically the only reason that it exists in ukraine and the fact that those territories were followed

00:21:36.600 into the uh the the entity called the ukrainian soviet socialist republic in the soviet union uh which

00:21:44.200 promoted uh uh its own sort of separate identity uh during uh the krimisata either as opposed to say the

00:21:52.840 kuban which in demographic terms actually had a pretty similar uh 50 50 type of makeup uh the same as

00:22:00.200 southern ukraine um uh the the kuban that's like uh uh krasnodar uh cry and so on that's like sochi

00:22:09.000 uh uh but uh they they were the main part of the uh of of the russian state uh subdivision uh throughout

00:22:18.760 the soviet either and uh they adopted a fully dutch identity and in fact actually one of the uh

00:22:24.840 ironies is that um in one of the is that they are probably more patriotic than average in dussia

00:22:31.720 according to various opinion polls so like if uh uh one of the opinion polls uh serving support for the

00:22:38.120 for the war uh showed that it was the uh dush and south which was most like supportive of it

00:22:44.360 uh which is highly ironic given that uh demographically it was uh like 50 50 uh ukrainian

00:22:52.440 essentially essentially ago now everyone's talking about this war right now the conflict

00:22:59.080 and as we know it didn't just start right this war has been going ongoing basically for eight years

00:23:04.840 there have been uh russians that have killed in in donbass for the last eight years which no one seems

00:23:09.640 to want to talk about in the west violently killed in certain regions so i want to just back up and

00:23:15.800 where where did this begin where did the conflict really begin with ukraine in russia and why does

00:23:21.880 ukraine and particularly the ukrainian government hate these people so much now we know we can also

00:23:27.160 get into ukraine and all the corruption and skepticism surrounding their government and all the coups and

00:23:33.400 it's just been it's been bad news or it's basically been a stomping ground for corrupt billionaires

00:23:38.040 to launder money and do shady deals and so you know the ukrainian people have also had a bad deal

00:23:43.400 well yeah i mean i would point out from the very outset that like even on the referendum on preserving

00:23:48.840 the soviet union there was like the majority of ukrainians like 70 percent of them approximately

00:23:56.440 just like russians and 80 percent of bell russians voted in favor of it uh so this is a long-term

00:24:03.160 process of sundering i mean a national process to some extent when you live in separate countries

00:24:10.040 of course over time anything that that sort of begins fakish and encoded does steadily coalesce

00:24:17.480 into something more real uh so uh but yeah i mean even as late as 2014 according to opinion polls again

00:24:26.120 uh the division between ukrainians who wanted to integrate with the eu and the ukrainians who

00:24:32.200 wanted to to instead to join russia's customs union and i mean even that's a missed representation because

00:24:37.480 actually as we know there was no serious prospect of ukraine joining the eu anytime soon uh but uh yeah

00:24:44.680 i mean even back then it was 50 50 division essentially and uh the uh uh you know my done essentially forced

00:24:52.520 forced them into that direction uh so uh yes and then uh it was coupled with uh with uh also uh nato

00:24:59.640 integration because uh yeah i mean the uh the americans had uh made a verbal promise uh to gorbachev not

00:25:06.200 to expand nato which was obviously broken uh and obviously a security concern and uh obviously it's

00:25:13.160 especially painful to uh see this security threat growing at the same time as uh uh ukraine uh makes itself

00:25:20.200 an anti-russian project and i mean it ultimately was an anti-russian project pursued by the uh

00:25:25.800 uh by the political elites in that uh in that country after euromaidan uh so uh one thing if uh you

00:25:31.800 allow a free debate about uh which direction to go uh but in reality zirinsky started doing like

00:25:38.440 things like such as banning the uh uh removing the russian language from some schools uh that by the

00:25:45.240 way and also the hungarian language this is why our plan isn't uh sort of like very friendly towards

00:25:50.440 ukraine either uh they uh shut down pro-russian media they uh attested and imprisoned pro-russian

00:25:57.160 politicians so with which uh was was imprisoned uh so which is not talked about like like when uh

00:26:04.680 yanukovych imprisoned uh timoshenko so because the west isn't isn't only he's only interested in sort of

00:26:11.080 like democracy and uh and procedure when uh when it's sort of like their people getting the test

00:26:18.120 and uh um pro-russian activists were were killed occasionally such as uh so it's not really an

00:26:28.280 atmosphere in which there was a free and fair debate over which they over even over which direction that

00:26:34.280 were to go and whether they sort of uh like the direction that the maidanist elites did decide to

00:26:42.600 go uh in this sort of uh pursuit to integrate with nato and uh and uh remove uh the russian cultural

00:26:53.080 influence from from ukraine uh like reversing a thousand years of shared culture history religion

00:26:59.880 and so forth i'm sure that ukraine ukrainian statehood would would have uh the main uh uh

00:27:05.640 would would have survived intact like with all with all of its territories intact had had this not

00:27:11.960 happened now as a nationalist a lot of people will say well you should support ukraine against uh russian

00:27:18.200 invaders now how do you answer that because i know they've been separate now for what almost a

00:27:22.760 hundred years or something but they're essentially the the same people right and as a as a nationalist

00:27:29.400 wouldn't you also support self-determination if there were russians in these regions and they

00:27:33.880 wanted to have their own republics i support that i support self-determination and i think

00:27:38.600 that that would give the most amount of peace that would be a solution to end the war if ukraine

00:27:43.240 could just concede on certain areas but they just won't let that happen why are these territories

00:27:49.160 so damn important for them why can't they just make peace with russia on this uh well i mean the

00:27:56.760 the one thing i would point out is that uh ukraine it's it's an exaggeration to say that ukraine is

00:28:03.000 done by nationalists about russians too but the nationalists do have inordinate political influence

00:28:08.920 over of ukrainian politics so frankly any even back during the 2014 to 22 either uh there were cases

00:28:18.120 basically of ukrainian politicians saying say oh why should why don't we make it it along crimea

00:28:24.680 uh for instance uh which is sort of like the midway point like even even like the russia like extreme

00:28:31.080 russian liberals like navani like propose something like a referendum in crimea uh to decide whether

00:28:36.840 the crimeans uh who want to uh join ukraine or join join russia i mean i mean margin was in the

00:28:42.600 violent years in russian society uh but uh even saying that was the vote and so like ukrainian politicians

00:28:49.560 that voiced that they had these investigations opened up against them and so forth uh or being

00:28:54.760 intimidated by uh by ukrainian nationalists uh so uh to some extent i mean this is uh i mean to

00:29:02.440 large extent i mean i think this was simply unrealistic and another thing i would i would point out is that

00:29:09.400 public opinion frankly is very valuable uh when you have propaganda and uh uh so as i as i said the

00:29:17.160 split amongst ukrainians was 50 50 between between russia the us as late as 2014. yeah i mean i think

00:29:24.120 another another point i would emphasize is that um uh people people are pretty short termist and the uh

00:29:31.640 uh and simply the media atmosphere can make a big uh big impact on how they view things

00:29:37.480 uh it's not it's not as if most normies have very deeply uh held political convictions they tend to

00:29:45.560 go with uh uh with whatever's the flavor of the day quite frankly that's true and there are a lot of

00:29:51.240 young people in ukraine are getting hit with so much propaganda they've grown up in that they've

00:29:55.880 grown up in all these uh coups and corruption and then all this uh anti-putin stuff and now you have

00:30:01.240 the west even oscars and hollywood and just like the entire western machine that is like supporting

00:30:07.640 ukraine that is anti-russia so that's affecting a lot of these young kids so they're ready to go

00:30:12.200 pick up arms and and and fight fellow slavs i want to talk about the as of these nazis in ukraine

00:30:18.440 because we know that there have also been uh you know jews funding them they're not anti-jewish right

00:30:23.560 even the adl in the u.s is saying basically they get a pass they're they're good nazis because

00:30:28.120 they're not targeting jews uh you know good good slavic nazis kill other slavs basically

00:30:33.640 even uh facebook is allowing the temporary promotion of nazism related to ukraine i mean

00:30:38.920 imagine if we had nazis in america now they call housewives like me uh nazis just because i don't

00:30:45.720 don't hate myself for being white so i guess it's different terminology when putin says nazi versus

00:30:50.040 when biden says nazi but imagine if there were real nazis in america engaging in uh warfare you know

00:30:57.800 i mean they wouldn't be so supportive it's all very fishy to me oh yeah i mean i mean um i mean

00:31:05.880 as of uh is is doing some sort of publicity efforts to distance themselves away from uh from the uh

00:31:12.760 schwastikas and so forth though often not very successfully i mean they still can't stop themselves

00:31:18.600 uh from talking about uh uh uh russian uh you know ugric months and so forth uh but uh uh but yeah i

00:31:26.040 mean they've sort of changed their tunes obviously but uh still i don't see in what in what universe you

00:31:31.080 could uh uh you could consider say the uh proud boys to be more nazi than than as of which uh like literally

00:31:39.480 uses uh sort of nazi nazi symbols like they both sign them and so forth i mean that but yeah i

00:31:49.720 but i mean i mean obviously uh it's sort of like not others uh or objective people who get to determine

00:31:57.240 these things i mean it's uh just like the modern rebels and uh in sylia uh like that like you know that

00:32:05.480 there was that scene of the islamist uh they pick out the uh heart of a uh uh syrian arab army

00:32:11.960 soldier meeting it live on camp so yeah i mean you recall them a rhetoric about those not the jihazis

00:32:18.360 uh well yeah you've i mean if you're if you're the west's useful idiot then they will uh obviously

00:32:24.600 don't pr for them and even uh uh even camp what they were what they themselves were writing about the

00:32:31.000 nazi problem uh like even as late as last year uh into the memory hole that's right that's right

00:32:38.200 ukraine was talking about that and even mainstream news oh the problem of these nazis in the ukraine

00:32:43.640 and now they're they're uh practically heroes and i noticed some of them are embracing this hollywood

00:32:48.920 version of a nazi right like this is a psychotic you know crazy person just without uh hating juice now

00:32:56.040 and now they're they're being supported everywhere but we know that western forces that they'll

00:33:00.360 they'll use whatever side they have to to further their agenda i know assad recently said that as

00:33:05.160 well so they really just don't care uh it's just interesting to watch how they they're getting a

00:33:09.640 pass right now and i don't know are they going to be used as a fall guy or is there just different

00:33:13.880 people jumping in there claiming to be nazis so that they can do this stuff and later on they could

00:33:18.120 blame oh well it was actually the nazi groups doing all these atrocities you know i don't know but

00:33:22.440 putin said he wants the denazification of ukraine but of course they have no no power right nazis don't

00:33:29.160 have power in ukraine it's a globalist neoliberal communists and of course there's a jewish president

00:33:34.360 that's in charge of the government and being pushed by a lot of these western neoliberal forces i mean

00:33:39.640 he said he didn't even want war he wanted peace with with russia initially and now look at where

00:33:44.520 we're at um but what does putin really mean when he's saying a denazification is he just being kind

00:33:50.840 of cheeky or what what do you think oh look look i mean putin said a lot of things on ukraine but

00:33:58.840 one thing that he has been saying since the late 2010s uh late 2000s even uh is that russians and

00:34:07.480 ukrainians are one people and furthermore i would say that even as of a few months ago uh soon after putin

00:34:15.080 wrote that article on the historical unity of russians and ukrainians which i strongly suggest

00:34:20.680 everybody read to get to sort of like get putin's view of this conflict um according to a poll opinion

00:34:29.480 poll 41 percent of ukrainians for that matter even even uh like literally a few months ago agreed with

00:34:35.480 that statement that ukrainians and russians are one people so it's not some kind of french like all the

00:34:40.680 french uh of the nationalist either dentists manifest it's sort of uh reflects the majority

00:34:47.320 opinion in russia and milanus and the opinion of a substantial number of people in ukraine itself

00:34:56.440 uh so uh as so as regarding uh that's i mean that's the core the core argument in my opinion

00:35:02.840 uh but uh obviously the denazification is a rhetorical tool in that same speech uh the fact

00:35:09.240 where where he had not the fact to announce the war uh he also said that uh um that he would also

00:35:16.440 become decommunized ukraine so it's basically a denazification and a decommunization and you can

00:35:24.360 sort of cherry pick whichever you want uh it's kind of your ideological election so like the communists

00:35:31.800 who are fighting to restore ussr2 uh they can uh like uh go on about the natification uh they

00:35:39.000 can uh uh they can uh sort of uh like um both uh the decommunization uh part of the message so you

00:35:53.160 know putin said like literally oh oh uh you want you want the decommunization well let's not leave a job

00:35:59.000 and finish uh i will show you what real decommunization looks like so well considering

00:36:04.680 that ukraine is literally the successor of the ukrainian soviet socialist republic uh which was

00:36:10.360 uh which gained a a huge amount of its territories uh present territories uh from from the soviet union

00:36:17.880 that's sort of like if that's that was a pretty good pretty good trolling on putin's part

00:36:26.200 uh but yeah i mean as as a marker nazism doesn't really have much to do with the real historical

00:36:33.320 nazism as such well i mean not not not not the uh ukrainian that version of nazism i mean that

00:36:39.240 that's some of the original uh version is nstapism so it's uh national socialism german workers party

00:36:46.600 so uh i mean obviously doesn't doesn't have any connection with that movement whatsoever uh not

00:36:53.000 nothing not in dushing portrayals of it and not in the way that ukrainians laugh about it uh so yeah

00:37:00.200 i mean my personal opinion is that it is a basically a rhetorical device by and large

00:37:06.760 okay got it i want to talk about too uh all this footage that's coming out uh in ukraine that it's

00:37:12.840 been a huge propaganda machine we even see hollywood producers that are helping ukraine uh with it with

00:37:18.440 their propaganda and a lot of footage that's coming out we just don't know if it's real is it faked

00:37:24.120 uh as some of it we've known is old some is actually from an old zombie movie we found out a few years ago

00:37:30.120 it's and and it's really now become the fog of war all these different factions that are there

00:37:34.200 fighting all these crazy people are coming to ukraine and picking up guns to kill russians you

00:37:39.080 have all these different interests so it's hard to know what's really happening but there was some

00:37:44.040 recent footage that came out with captured russian soldiers um who were castrated they were shot in the

00:37:51.240 balls their their bones were broken and zelensky recently just reminded soldiers to uphold the geneva

00:37:56.920 convention which of course who really does during war war is brutal but of course though they wouldn't

00:38:02.600 hold ukraine to this i think ukraine would probably get a pass if russia was doing something like this

00:38:06.920 it would be like nuclear war or something but what do you think about this footage coming out uh you know

00:38:12.440 russian missiles and they're hitting hospitals and and now we see this coming out on the flip side

00:38:18.440 how bad is it really there i mean because i have talked to people in ukraine and they say

00:38:22.840 they see planes there's missiles they're shooting but they can't tell who is doing what because it's

00:38:28.840 just such a mess there

00:38:32.440 oh well i mean uh i mean russia takes uh tries to uh target military personnel to the extent possible

00:38:40.040 uh i mean it's obviously not going to be possible all the time but uh uh if you're occupying a wall

00:38:46.360 uh for instance then it becomes a valid military target and that's the guys the bombing of that

00:38:52.200 maternity hospital in mariupol well i mean frankly it was publicly announced that it had been vacated

00:38:58.280 uh three or four days ago before the bombing and occupied occupied by uh uh ukrainian military uh

00:39:05.160 so i mean i don't i don't like going down that rabbit hole but i do think that that woman was shown was

00:39:12.520 like the crisis actor because i mean at the hospital had literally been closed for three days and she

00:39:17.800 later appeared in another photo shoot this time accepting uh food from uh from like a nutrition

00:39:23.160 humanitarian truck uh so pretty skeptical about that um the um i think about uh the uh work times uh

00:39:32.040 the shooting and the kneecaps uh that video seems to have been geolocated uh it seemed does seem to

00:39:38.040 have uh to have uh to have been legitimate uh uh as in the or not fake uh i don't think that it's a

00:39:45.720 very good idea for the ukrainians to do this because like even modality and ethics aside because uh

00:39:51.480 uh i mean russia has a lot more uh ukrainian presence of water than the converse uh so you know that's

00:39:58.840 just not a very good idea from that perspective though i suppose if you're very cynical uh the intention

00:40:04.840 behind this could be to uh uh to uh anger the russian sufficiently so uh sufficiently so that

00:40:12.760 uh ukrainian soldiers would be more afraid of uh deserts or surrendering uh so that's sort of like a

00:40:19.320 there is a kind of logic to that as well well even if a very cynical one i'm just gonna make it worse

00:40:24.840 for them and it's it's horrible for me to see this you know as a russian too like i don't want to see

00:40:29.640 i don't want to see more brotherly wars like i don't want to see any of this and i know that it's

00:40:34.280 just being instigated there's other forces that are stirring the pot right and uh basically more

00:40:40.920 white people are dying you know and it's it's horrible to see and my question is why is this

00:40:47.400 so important to globalists why is ukraine and getting to russia so important i know some people

00:40:52.680 theorize as part of the great reset and uh and russia stands in the way what is your view

00:40:58.120 i mean uh the west has been trying to integrate uh ukraine into its security and uh like geopolitical

00:41:06.520 structures for for decades um and i mean it's sort of it does make sense because a russia without

00:41:13.240 ukraine is uh all else equal a weaker country uh well i mean it's basically uh used to be 50 million now

00:41:21.720 more like 35 million people uh who share the same culture with russians would be very easy to integrate

00:41:27.880 uh don't have a history outside of galicia of uh resistance uh against russia when they were part of

00:41:36.040 the like even the soviet union uh so obviously this would be a big boom to russia and uh well not not as

00:41:43.560 big of a relative boom to the west uh but uh but still i mean um like this this is a long long running

00:41:51.560 process and uh like even even integration with the eu uh which they were trying to force it i mean if you

00:41:58.760 recall the in 2014 the choice wasn't uh uh they didn't allow a choice of both the eu and the russian

00:42:04.760 customs union they it was the eu which insisted it had to be one or the other

00:42:09.240 uh and so uh to that extent substantially forced the uh the color revolution uh so i think yeah i

00:42:17.960 mean let's say it's uh just for these uh sort of like uh my out of these considerations that a

00:42:24.280 russia without ukraine would be a weaker version and more it's often more susceptible to uh to western

00:42:31.400 influence over the long run to acknowledge and agree that it is a huge tragedy that uh it ended up being

00:42:37.880 a bigger war because there were i mean ideally uh russia and ukraine could have integrated under the

00:42:44.360 egos of the uh uh customs union uh of the like a base of like a eu-like structure uh the alternative

00:42:52.760 which was pursued after after 2014 was the so-called minsk accords uh in which ukraine was supposed to

00:43:00.360 federalize uh the idea there was that uh uh the eastern and southern provinces which were more russian

00:43:07.000 leaning could over time naturally naturally drift towards russia simply by weight of their economic

00:43:12.920 and cultural links to russia uh but uh this was made impossible i mean the uh those files were

00:43:19.080 completely purged from the ukrainian government and as i said uh russian cultural media influence was

00:43:25.720 forcibly shut down uh without any complaints from the west that i mean it's it's logical from the state of

00:43:32.760 from the point of view of uh of ukrainian nation building uh but uh uh obviously russia back to

00:43:39.240 different uh so and eventually we came to this uh sort of uh well that tragic crossroads essentially

00:43:48.360 now what do you think is a is a peaceful solution i know russia had some reasonable demands right they

00:43:53.000 wanted for ukraine no nato membership for ukraine and nato shouldn't exist anymore anyway uh no

00:43:58.920 militarization of course the denotification which we talked about and then stop limiting the russian

00:44:05.400 language in ukraine uh that those were their demands uh what do you think is a peaceful solution

00:44:13.400 oh you see here here's the thing i mean i would say from the outset that uh the ukrainians aren't

00:44:18.280 interested in this according to opinion polls at least a week or two ago uh 90 percent of ukrainians

00:44:26.200 literally thought that they were winning uh so why on earth would you uh give concessions to a

00:44:32.920 country that you think you're beating uh that's the first thing and the second thing is i mean i mean

00:44:38.200 okay like even even if zelensky uh like went ahead with this uh the uh he'd frankly get assassinated by

00:44:47.320 the nationalists i mean the this this isn't the realistic i mean that these people literally shot one of

00:44:54.120 the people on the negotiating team because they had suspicions that he was a russian agent i don't know

00:44:59.880 if that was was uh was correct or not but but uh you know i mean there's some crazy people there uh who

00:45:07.400 have really maximal maximalist demands and would stop at nothing uh short of russian withdrawal from the

00:45:14.120 pass and even crimea uh to say nothing of all those other points uh so that's the first thing i mean the

00:45:21.080 political class isn't thought to uh maximalist ukrainian nationalists but the second point is

00:45:26.520 that even non-ukrainians believe that they are winning because that's what the tv tells them uh so

00:45:33.640 frankly until until at least the ukrainian army uh isn't getting decisively beaten and for that to happen

00:45:42.680 at the minimum i would expect you'd need the full encirclement and the liquidation of the pocket and the

00:45:49.000 pass uh i don't think any any negotiations are realistic any negotiations that lead to a peace

00:45:56.840 deal at any rate this is why from the beginning i have been saying that all all negotiations are a

00:46:02.600 charade and self-woman otherwise uh that i've been proven correct so far yeah so this could be going on

00:46:08.680 for a long time do you think it's going to be going on a long time because i remember you had some other

00:46:11.800 predictions yeah yeah i mean i got i got most of my predictions right so i was correct on the invasion

00:46:19.480 uh up until even the date uh and i was uh correct on another thing such as china supporting uh or at

00:46:28.600 least acquiescing to russia uh on many of the economic ramifications uh on the fact that uh need that

00:46:36.280 that uh russians would not overthrow putin because of this that the voice that let's be popular in

00:46:41.080 russian society that uh the oligarchs have no power the so-called oligarchs in russia country to

00:46:46.920 popular opinion in the west have no power over over putin's decision making uh but yes i mean i did

00:46:53.880 sort of uh uh take a big l uh in uh in the modern jargon uh on the duration of the conflict i thought

00:47:01.640 that it would be dapped up in a matter of uh several or a few weeks uh much uh much like uh

00:47:07.400 like along the model of uh in reality it now seems that's the obvious that it's going to take several

00:47:14.040 months yeah because oh i guess you couldn't have anticipated to all the support that they were going

00:47:19.240 to get and just i mean they're talking about it at the oscars for crying out loud it's amazing how

00:47:22.680 all these anti-gun people in america all these annoying liberals are now like yeah go kill russians

00:47:28.120 and blow them up and tanks and guns and now they support you know ethnic nationalism for ukrainians

00:47:34.120 and it's just mind-blowing for people like us who have literally lost bank accounts and been banned

00:47:39.640 and censored everywhere for supporting these things for other people at other times and it is amazing

00:47:45.320 too how biden is accusing russia of everything that he's doing jailing protesters censorship banning ending

00:47:52.120 free speech uh pushing state propaganda on the news war murder conquest i mean these are globalist

00:47:59.080 american values and all we hear right now is putin putin russia russia russia you know like he's the

00:48:04.200 only guy on the planet that does does these things but uh what is your level of of censorship in russia

00:48:11.240 right now i mean are you being are people being censored and banned and they can't talk about things

00:48:16.600 how bad is it uh well i mean there was a law introduced against uh discrediting the armed forces

00:48:24.120 which i think is is sort of more defensible than uh than western speech codes on the uh uh because at

00:48:31.320 least russia is he is in a pretty serious war uh so it has that going for it and uh uh but to date it's

00:48:39.160 only uh it's only uh it's only boiled down to pretty minor fines essentially uh so uh um not something

00:48:47.400 you'd go to jail for uh whereas in uh czechia in slovakia uh they've actually introduced uh criminal

00:48:54.840 responsibility for making coalition um like uh statements and in uh latvia there was decently a

00:49:02.120 video blogger television video blogger who was arrested because his uh video is supposedly celebrated

00:49:08.120 the tradition armed forces uh so it seems that relative to those east central european uh

00:49:14.360 countries uh um like uh who are not even at war themselves uh i mean i can sort of i mean i mean

00:49:22.040 objectively i can see why ukraine now would be locking up productions i mean that sort of to be expected

00:49:27.560 if you're at war yeah and i mean to a less extent that also applies to russia as well because i mean

00:49:33.240 uh russia itself isn't being bombed or whatever but russian troops are involved in a special

00:49:37.720 military operation uh so uh the uh the west world is subjecting russia to unprecedented sanctions

00:49:46.680 so uh at least in those grounds it's at least somewhat more defensible in my opinion

00:49:53.240 now with all of this happening russia is basically getting driven into the arms of china more uh now how

00:50:00.600 is that going to change things with a stronger relationship between russia and china if they pull away

00:50:06.120 from the west uh well there's going to be more trade between russia and china obviously uh the uh i

00:50:12.440 mean one of the points i've been making since the late 2010s again is that there is a great verification

00:50:17.800 uh occurring uh i mean i think the future of the world is a sort of like a like the western sphere the

00:50:24.840 u.s that's uh various allies and satellites uh so mostly western europe um like big one civilization

00:50:33.400 and uh uh the china also having a large sphere of influence called the sinus sphere so well i mean

00:50:40.120 obviously russia is going to uh to tell much more towards the sinus sphere in this uh global rearrangement

00:50:47.320 uh but i wouldn't call it a dependency like many people uh like many western analysts are saying with

00:50:55.160 shannon florida i mean one thing i would point out is that russia does have 145 million people uh possibly

00:51:01.960 soon to be 180 or 190 million people if like like belarus ukraine uh become united uh so and who have a

00:51:13.320 a relatively high degree of human capital so i mean i would say that even a country like aidan

00:51:20.360 manages to done a pretty modern civilization it even has its own commercial uh airline fleet uh it

00:51:28.120 produces its own its own cars uh so if uh if iran can do it which has been subject to the very harsh

00:51:35.800 sanctions in that since 1979 i think it's a relative no-brainer that russia will be able to uh given

00:51:42.440 its sort of uh human capital advantages its much larger population uh it's uh like high iq population

00:51:49.800 and uh the fact that uh the west share of global gcp is uh has been decreasing progressively over over the

00:51:58.440 past uh the past uh several decades uh relative to china and increasingly to india and so forth uh so

00:52:05.880 uh um um i'm pretty don't don't think this is going to be a a uh that big of a deal as many westerners

00:52:14.040 are hoping in terms of socially of pushing back with this frankly many of the uh technologies that

00:52:19.720 she is going to miss it can either manufacture itself or it uh such as such as uh airplanes for instance

00:52:27.640 so i mean we do have the mc21 and the superjet uh so these uh like airliners which are almost entirely

00:52:36.600 made up of components which are domestically produced and uh uh those uh things that uh

00:52:43.320 the she can't uh produce such as uh uh like the most advanced uh microchips uh chip farms are actually

00:52:51.000 very expensive uh so that's of like constraint uh but uh yeah i mean that can be made good with uh

00:52:57.560 with uh with chinese imports essentially uh obviously the americans are not going to be

00:53:03.480 happy with this they're going to be talking of sanctioning china but the good thing is that uh

00:53:08.040 chinese american uh ties as i said are progressively breaking down anyway uh they have been ever since the

00:53:14.520 americans started the sort of uh depressing huawei uh so i think that's going to play a decrease

00:53:21.880 an increasingly a small part in chinese decision making on what to provision to russia now after all

00:53:30.200 of this that's been happening do you think would you say russians are more united was my first question

00:53:36.600 and then the second thing would be what else do we need to know in america what else as a russian would

00:53:42.200 you want to say to americans something that's where we're missing or not here okay yeah yeah sure i

00:53:47.480 mean uh the uh uh russian society is united behind this i said from the outside that i think that

00:53:54.600 something like 60 70 percent of people supported the military operation and now i've got opinion polls

00:54:00.440 have since confirmed that uh if anything support for it has gone up uh in the weeks since uh frankly i

00:54:07.000 mean yeah i mean if if the war dags on for a long time without successes visible successes

00:54:12.520 probably support will go down uh but for now it's very high uh frankly you have to bear in mind that

00:54:19.000 western journalists those who remain in dussia they talk to a very specific subset of dussians

00:54:25.240 uh they tend to talk to uh anti-regime dussians who like dislike putler uh who are based in moscow and

00:54:34.280 saint petersburg uh who are younger so frankly the main division and support for the war in dussia

00:54:41.240 as with many other sort of like liberal conservative divides isn't between uh income levels although

00:54:47.960 there's a bit of that but not the main part it's not between men and women it's not between urban and

00:54:53.000 doodle but it's between uh age groups so like the boomer is supported much more than the uh like the

00:55:00.280 young so like if it's like 90 support amongst amongst the boomers then it's uh something like

00:55:05.640 50 50 amongst the uh the zoomers and millennials oh yeah yeah uh so uh so yeah but uh but overall

00:55:15.720 even even amongst that uh even amongst the zoomers that's uh that's like 50 who do support it but

00:55:22.120 obviously if you further narrow it down to like zoom with millennials in moscow uh the type of people

00:55:29.160 who would be happy to talk to western journalists give interviews and so forth uh well yeah then it's

00:55:34.760 like 20 or 30 percent so uh but uh but not exactly that doesn't representative of the country at large

00:55:42.520 so that's uh that's the thing i would i want to say about uh about supporting this as it stands

00:55:48.120 uh what i would like to tell americans is that uh well ultimately we do view it as a sort of internal

00:55:55.880 dispute between eastern slavs between uh between one people at the end of the day uh so you're not

00:56:03.080 obligated to uh uh support one side or another for like any like deep ethical or moral reason or whatever

00:56:11.480 uh the one thing that i would i would sort of want to mention uh from the perspective of sort of like

00:56:19.000 the old right or the uh like uh either the terrorism as as as as concerns those people uh is that uh ukraine

00:56:28.120 is a country of uh 35 million people and uh uh frankly yes uh uh as of us currently being lionized by

00:56:37.240 the western media uh you they might think that they have uh like allies within the western elites

00:56:44.200 but all of the this is a very situational affair uh as um like in the event that they achieve their

00:56:51.720 dream and uh sort of reconstitute the pain within this with within it's sort of like take even take

00:56:58.360 back crimea uh like uh i don't see any realistic path to that given the military uh the dot the dominance

00:57:06.520 but okay yeah let's assume that all your dreams come true uh ukraine sort of gets back to its

00:57:11.800 all borders gets accepted into nato the eu well what i mean i mean what happens next uh uh the uh

00:57:18.760 do you think do you seriously think that uh as all rights will end up building ukraine well nobody's

00:57:23.880 obviously not i think that's that i mean they they can't even stop gay pride parades in kiev uh at the

00:57:30.440 time when they sort of like have uh uh like like this uh like they they have a a license to kill

00:57:37.080 production activists like essentially assassinate people like what is putin and so forth uh but uh

00:57:42.520 they they can't even um even like like you know do anything about this very outside expression of global

00:57:49.320 homo in in their own capital so uh i think what happens when when your themes come through and uh yeah

00:57:58.200 i mean somehow ukraine uh like they the ukrainians the europeans uh look uh look away from the fact that

00:58:05.640 ukraine has uh wages uh like a gcp per capita equivalent to that of uh almost equivalent to that

00:58:11.240 of uzbekistan and uh like accept uh accept the ukraine into uh into the eu the day after it the

00:58:19.000 claims crime here okay let's let's assume this fantasy comes to what happens then well uh i mean ukraine

00:58:26.280 has that's family people now uh it's got a tiny gdp uh people uh you're not going to be sort of like

00:58:34.520 uh reading uh white europe into like a promise like uh white wakanda after this uh you're going to

00:58:42.680 be criminalized progressively uh the people will very rapidly uh stop uh like caring about what you did

00:58:51.960 in the war whatever uh you'll uh you'll simply be sidelined politically as uh as nationalist

00:58:58.920 sedentary and settler nationalists white nationalists have been uh pretty much everywhere in the eu and

00:59:05.880 this is inevitable simply because uh you're not like by yourself or even in a in a putative alliance with

00:59:14.360 poland on the d4 it's not a viable uh block uh you use western social networks to communicate with each

00:59:22.840 other which are going to be shut down uh you're not energy dependent uh your population is uh less

00:59:30.040 than 100 million even in total even if you could get past your very big internal differences between

00:59:36.040 each other uh so um i mean poland and ukraine yes they're currently united uh because uh the polish

00:59:44.600 uh would prefer that uh that uh that ukraine was literally ruled by by uh uh uh i don't know like

00:59:52.200 uh chaos cultists uh over russia having a border there and i mean okay that's not even that unreasonable

00:59:59.720 for for a pose i suppose from some perspective but they do have their historical issues themselves

01:00:05.720 where the national hero of ukraine uh but then uh uh his uh uh like partisans killed uh almost 100 000

01:00:15.160 poles uh during the world war ii uh so that issue is going to come to a head in the event that uh that uh

01:00:23.880 poles and ukrainians sort of have to like start integrating with each other oh i think there's going

01:00:30.840 to be a lot of like cementing themselves together even if like even if like russia like vanished like

01:00:37.160 this moment they'd still have to resolve that issue before before um they could uh um like

01:00:43.720 provision their conditions to to to the eu uh uh same thing with hungary hungary and ukraine also have

01:00:50.520 their disputes over the hunger status of the hungarian minority in ukraine and their language rights and

01:00:55.960 so forth so i don't really see how that's going to be realistic especially given that uh in practice

01:01:03.400 the uh eu has generally pushed the polls around quite successfully i mean they do depend on the eu

01:01:09.960 subsidies to a considerable degree uh so whenever those uh you know um the those uh lgbt-free zones that

01:01:18.600 you have in poland uh so yeah i mean they uh declare those zones which are really just for sure they

01:01:25.800 don't really mean anything yeah they're not as hardcore as we think unfortunately to get to

01:01:30.760 trigger the lips right and then the eu comes around and says uh yeah well you know if you're going to be

01:01:37.160 uh evil homophobes then we're not obligated to uh defund you you know those progressive uh dutch people

01:01:44.120 uh come around uh yeah i mean uh not a popular viewpoint uh uh in the in in the uh you know the

01:01:53.400 sort of like nationalist viewpoint in the progressive uh western europe uh so yeah they started to cut

01:01:58.520 out their gifts uh very soon afterwards and the those polish mayors uh say oh we're very very very

01:02:05.640 lgbt friendly and uh cancel those zones as soon as eu funding is is started yeah they were also

01:02:13.960 crazy on the vaccine i'm just i'm just trying to get like from a practical perspective and very

01:02:19.080 difficult to see how uh how a country like how how like poland or the v4 block even if you putatively

01:02:27.960 uh ukraine wants to join them how it's supposed to be of the audience here the european world towards

01:02:34.920 its values given that those countries are relatively poor and low prestige in the western hierarchy

01:02:41.640 yeah i think we're going to see some negative aspects too of the of you know millions of ukrainians

01:02:48.360 flooding into poland right because i mean they're they're similar but they're different right i know

01:02:53.160 there's lots of poles that are pouring into the uk but it's a lot of people that are coming in there

01:02:57.880 really fast and it is a different culture you know so we'll see we'll see how that works i mean on

01:03:02.440 the plus side at least they're european so at least they're slobs they have that you know it's not like

01:03:07.720 millions of people coming from africa or wherever um but yeah i think that we'll see some some problems

01:03:14.520 i mean i think i think ukrainians will integrate into poland those who stay there without much

01:03:19.080 problems because yeah i mean they are a property uh pretty is like genetically identical just like

01:03:25.880 russians and uh i mean you can learn the polish language as an eastern slav in like three months

01:03:32.440 essentially uh yes so i don't think that's going to be a big deal specifically but i'm really talking

01:03:39.320 more about uh how their states would manage sort of to maintain ideological uh consistency like sort of

01:03:48.040 like the conservative sort of quasi-nationalism that uh that they want to promote yeah uh and how they

01:03:55.720 would coordinate that between themselves at the state level you know locked up i was more guessing

01:04:02.280 towards that but yeah i mean like uh even ukrainian frankly i mean poland has been i i think will

01:04:08.280 benefit a huge deal in relative terms like all the polls which i think they get to britain and uh

01:04:14.440 germany and so forth they've uh basically been replaced and that's all uh thanks to this uh uh recent wave

01:04:21.000 well anatolia this has been very informative i know that we can uh speak for hours it's

01:04:26.920 getting late over there in ruski land moscow it's been yeah very good to have you on and hear your

01:04:32.200 perspective and it's great that we can reach out and you know one of the big things for me is is been

01:04:37.000 the language barrier you know my russian is is very uh child it's on a child level but trying to find

01:04:44.440 russians to speak to an english audience is is very difficult and you can't even find stuff online

01:04:49.880 anymore just blocked out and stuff so it's great having you on uh and sharing your perspective and

01:04:55.080 i know you have some uh powerful takes on substack where people can go tell us about yes yeah yep so

01:05:01.640 yeah i mean i'm primarily blogging at substack uh thanks for showing the page and you can follow me on

01:05:07.080 twitter at katlin zero all right well thank you we'll have to do this again sometime soon all right uh

01:05:13.960 thank you thank you lana and it's been great uh uh being on red ice tv speak only notch i should say

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Radio 3Fourteen - April 09, 2022

Anatoly Karlin - Living in Moscow & The Ukrainian Russian Conflict 101

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