RadixJournal - October 05, 2020


Coronavirus Gets Personal


Episode Stats

Length

47 minutes

Words per Minute

161.16199

Word Count

7,643

Sentence Count

544

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

22


Summary

Donald Trump tests positive for coronavirus, and the political fallout from his initial response to the virus is just beginning. In the second half of the show, we turn to the prickly subject of whether Trump's initial response was racist.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 It's Monday, October 5th, 2020, and welcome back to The McSpencer Group.
00:00:06.500 I'm joined today by Edward Dutton.
00:00:09.380 Main topic, coronavirus gets personal.
00:00:13.460 The president has tested positive, along with much of his White House staff.
00:00:18.620 As of today, Donald Trump seems to be in recovery,
00:00:21.420 and this program wishes him and everyone else affected all the best.
00:00:25.480 But we'd be remiss not to examine the political fallout of Trump's response and messaging
00:00:30.940 when the virus first came to American shores.
00:00:33.920 Absolutely, this president will always put America first.
00:00:36.540 He will always protect American citizens.
00:00:38.300 We will not see diseases like the coronavirus come here.
00:00:40.920 We will not see...
00:00:41.800 In the second half of the show, Ed and I turn to the prickly subject of disparate impact.
00:00:48.000 Many are afraid to ask,
00:00:49.880 is coronavirus not just deadly, but worse, racist?
00:00:55.480 Ed, how are you?
00:00:59.160 I'm okay, yes.
00:01:00.980 Yes, I've had a...
00:01:02.680 I went on a long bicycle ride today.
00:01:05.860 That's good.
00:01:06.800 I rode from here to the local airport,
00:01:11.020 which is about an hour's bike ride away.
00:01:14.280 Okay.
00:01:14.480 It was the first up-front encapsulation of the chaos that Corona has caused.
00:01:21.240 You know, everything was shut.
00:01:23.180 All of the shops at the airport were shut.
00:01:24.980 All of the car rental places shut.
00:01:28.200 Hardly any taxis.
00:01:29.940 Hardly any flights.
00:01:31.860 So it was an eye-opener.
00:01:34.220 Yeah.
00:01:35.440 I have not really been in a big city for quite some time.
00:01:41.200 I mean, due to this virus.
00:01:42.980 I was in Chicago just for a little bit,
00:01:45.200 and I didn't really go downtown out of fear that I might be kidnapped by Antifa and tortured for my sins.
00:01:57.760 But yeah, I don't really know how we're going to ever come out of this.
00:02:03.960 I mean, I just saw a headline this morning that movie theaters are just closed.
00:02:09.440 And I mean, that might not be that important to everyone, but no movies are being released.
00:02:17.080 These theaters are, you know, on the verge of bankruptcy.
00:02:20.860 Many of them are.
00:02:22.540 And there is this kind of question of, like, what is life going to be like once this virus does go away?
00:02:30.620 And it will go away.
00:02:32.840 And I don't know.
00:02:35.120 I mean, there are these huge questions.
00:02:37.120 Although, it seems to be this kind of thing in the back of people's minds.
00:02:43.840 I don't think people are really contemplating what's happening.
00:02:47.780 But yeah, I don't know how these small businesses are surviving.
00:02:52.340 I mean, I definitely feel for them.
00:02:54.740 It's so much worse in almost everywhere than Northern Finland.
00:02:58.520 So whatever it is I'm seeing in Northern Finland, where we can go to pubs till midnight,
00:03:02.040 where very few people even wear masks, where there's certainly no law mandating wearing masks,
00:03:07.120 much, much worse in the South of Finland, and in turn, much, much worse in somewhere like England or built-up America.
00:03:14.320 So it must be so much worse.
00:03:15.680 All of these jobs are reliant, basically, on people leading a decadent, materialistic lifestyle.
00:03:23.100 And if they're a Cornish pasty salesman in the City of London, for example,
00:03:27.540 and people aren't going into the City of London and buying their Cornish pasty rather than having a packed lunch.
00:03:34.360 And so the Cornish pasty, it just goes on.
00:03:36.300 But to see it at the airport like that, and in Finland, there's no law saying you have to wear masks.
00:03:43.820 So the most they can do is sort of a polite notice asking you to wear masks.
00:03:48.080 And I was the only person in the airport which was practically deserted.
00:03:51.140 There must have been over 20 people in the whole airport.
00:03:55.240 Yeah, I can imagine.
00:03:56.740 It was extraordinary.
00:03:57.900 It was just no one there.
00:04:00.280 Anyway, yes.
00:04:01.720 The masks are the solution, not the problem, though.
00:04:04.300 I mean, I think a lot of conservatives unite in their mind lockdowns and masks.
00:04:10.680 But I mean, again, the whole point of a mask is that you can live your life relatively safely.
00:04:17.600 You're not being locked down.
00:04:19.220 You're wearing a mask instead.
00:04:20.560 But anyway, I think before we're going to talk about coronavirus, we haven't revisited this in a little while.
00:04:27.480 And we were on this early.
00:04:31.080 We took it seriously early.
00:04:32.740 And while other people were either oblivious or in denial, and I feel like we kind of won the argument.
00:04:43.000 And now I don't know if there's that much more to say.
00:04:45.880 I mean, I think it is what it is.
00:04:47.860 It is a global pandemic.
00:04:49.640 We've seen this before throughout human history.
00:04:53.220 And this one's going to be a little bit different.
00:04:55.640 Obviously, we're in a different time.
00:04:57.040 But these things are predictable.
00:04:59.120 But at the same time, it's not going to kill half the population or all of the population or whatever some people or some wild people were suggesting.
00:05:09.160 It just is what it is.
00:05:10.360 It's something that can be faced.
00:05:11.720 But I think a good place to start would be in the political realm and something – I mean, this 2020 election – I mean, I thought 2016 was pretty wild.
00:05:27.180 But FBI Director Comey releasing a report on Hillary or so on, these seem like little minor passing scandals du jour.
00:05:43.320 And it seems like in this one, just every three days, we get something that everyone freaks out about.
00:05:50.380 And there was, of course, the really civil and high-minded presidential debate that we witnessed.
00:06:00.660 And just 24 hours later, I guess, or 48 hours later, Trump came down with coronavirus.
00:06:10.900 I have to say, it did seem to be only a matter of time before these kinds of things were occurring.
00:06:17.980 Apparently, the virus was spread at this Amy Comey Barrett announcement celebration where there were a number of people in the Rose Garden.
00:06:31.280 They were – the Republicans were writing, hi, we're going to get our conservative justice put in.
00:06:36.120 And very few people were wearing masks.
00:06:39.160 And it was just – yeah, I mean, looking back at it, it looks almost inevitable.
00:06:43.000 But the president getting this virus, I think, is interesting on a couple of different levels.
00:06:52.240 I mean, there's no way that it can't affect the campaign.
00:06:55.020 And it also brings coronavirus right back to the fore.
00:06:58.780 And I think people were kind of forgetting about it.
00:07:01.500 We've gotten used to this thing.
00:07:04.140 And now that the president has it, you just can't avoid it.
00:07:09.400 It is the major subject.
00:07:10.500 And then it also brings up a question just about him personally, which is that the man is 74 years old.
00:07:18.780 He is clearly overweight, although he does seem to be relatively healthy.
00:07:25.340 There was a health scare, I think, about two years ago that they were hushed up.
00:07:31.360 But he seems to be a relatively healthy man.
00:07:34.000 But he is older and he is overweight.
00:07:36.100 And, you know, it raises the prospect of the president dying right in the middle of a campaign.
00:07:46.600 I mean, again, I don't think that's going to happen.
00:07:48.840 But it does certainly raise that prospect.
00:07:51.420 So this opens up a number of different doors.
00:07:55.180 I could roll on this, but do you have anything to say on Trump and just how this will affect things kind of either politically?
00:08:05.440 Well, I suppose you were saying about how we've been here before.
00:08:11.780 I mean, in 1963, in Britain or across Europe, I think, perhaps, there was a flu pandemic.
00:08:18.660 And it was in late 63, like November, October, about 663.
00:08:23.320 I think my great grandmother, I think, died of pneumonia as part of age 69, probably as part of this pandemic because she died in November 1963.
00:08:32.180 And the people were just used to this.
00:08:35.960 This was just the way it worked.
00:08:37.220 There would be these pandemics every so often, a flu or whatever, and old people in those days, 69 was old, would die.
00:08:45.080 And we were slightly more used to death.
00:08:48.640 People that were elderly in those days, people like her who had been born in 1893, have been brought up in a society where child mortality was 10 percent.
00:08:57.240 And where far more people would die younger, would die, certainly men would die in their 50s.
00:09:03.580 And that was perfectly normal.
00:09:05.060 And so they were just used to death.
00:09:07.140 And I find that with Finland, because they were so much poorer than other Western European countries for so much longer,
00:09:14.680 there's this attitude towards death that is much more morbid and they're much more open about death.
00:09:19.680 And they even take photographs of funerals looking sad and things like this.
00:09:24.580 And you never take a photograph of a funeral in Britain.
00:09:28.240 And so they're just much more kind of connected to death.
00:09:31.540 Yeah, death happens, noni, elema on.
00:09:34.420 And it's just fine.
00:09:36.280 And we've moved so far away from that to death being something that never happens.
00:09:41.340 And if it does happen, it happens in hospitals.
00:09:44.020 Most people probably have never seen a dead body, whereas it was quite normal in this country until quite recently.
00:09:50.120 The body would be laid out in the sauna until it was taken away by the undertaker.
00:09:55.380 So everyone's seen a dead body.
00:09:56.640 We have such strong individualistic values and there's no belief in, no public belief in things like an afterlife, particularly in Europe, in an afterlife or whatever.
00:10:06.900 And so there's no kind of idea, well, you know, God will look after us.
00:10:09.740 God will look after his own or anything like that.
00:10:12.220 It's just this is it.
00:10:13.560 This is life.
00:10:14.060 This is now.
00:10:14.620 And if I die, that's it.
00:10:16.020 And so consequently, this is the idea of herd immunity.
00:10:19.240 That was interesting when they rolled that out at the beginning.
00:10:21.380 And that was that was appealing to these kind of group values.
00:10:24.500 It was almost like saying, you know, let's have some deaths.
00:10:27.780 It was implicitly saying let's sacrifice some people.
00:10:30.660 Let's have some deaths to make the herd immune.
00:10:33.580 And that would have been a perfectly reasonable argument 100 years ago.
00:10:36.800 People would have thought in terms of the good of the herd and the good of the community and whatever.
00:10:40.200 Now they just think in terms of their own, the good of the individual.
00:10:43.540 And so there's no conception of doing something for the good of the group.
00:10:46.620 The herd immunity is what you want with something like this.
00:10:49.120 But that implies a kind of group orientation.
00:10:51.560 So I was thinking about that.
00:10:52.960 And it raises questions.
00:10:53.660 I think that's what we're going to get, whether we want it or not, as well.
00:10:58.660 We're slowing down the achievement of herd immunity.
00:11:01.740 And then it raises the questions as well about the competence of government.
00:11:04.740 And that's interesting in terms of this Peter Turkin model that I've talked about before,
00:11:08.560 about the decline, about the collapse of governmental order and the flip between right and left and back again.
00:11:18.120 And it's when governmental competence is seriously in question,
00:11:21.760 like it was in the 70s in the UK with all the trade unions or whatever,
00:11:25.080 or in the 60s in America with all the assassinations of Bobby Kennedy and Martin Luther King and whatever.
00:11:30.280 When the government seems out of control, then you get, as you've got perhaps with Reagan,
00:11:35.040 a sort of right-wing backlash.
00:11:37.700 And this is an interesting thing here, that you have this sense of incompetence,
00:11:42.100 this sense that they just don't know how to handle this.
00:11:44.260 They don't know what to do.
00:11:46.440 Well, I would jump on this and amplify it.
00:11:50.880 I mean, I think you're using a Turkin model.
00:11:53.140 I'm using the Robert Prechter model of social mood theory.
00:11:58.780 But I think they actually come out in the same way.
00:12:02.760 But what he is basically saying, it's not so much a right-wing backlash,
00:12:07.220 although that is a common characteristic,
00:12:11.200 but it is a throw-the-bums-out backlash.
00:12:14.660 So basically, the people who are associated, whether they caused it or whether they should be blamed for it or not,
00:12:21.240 the people who are associated with some kind of trauma or sign of incompetency will be thrown out of office.
00:12:28.380 And so basically, stock market crashes, which in the Prechter model are a sign of social mood,
00:12:34.680 not necessarily the economy.
00:12:36.120 The economy will follow these things,
00:12:37.680 are basically a sign that there's going to be a major tumult.
00:12:42.100 And we saw this very recently with the Republicans getting tossed out in favor of Obama,
00:12:47.400 and that being this huge, you know, all-but-landslide election,
00:12:51.940 as landslidey as you can get in the age of polarization.
00:12:56.000 But I would say this, though,
00:12:57.840 and I would say this very strongly,
00:13:01.660 I do think that there is some basic incompetence and just a lack of strategic vision in the sense of,
00:13:08.880 what are we doing here?
00:13:10.240 Is this just the flu?
00:13:11.880 Is this actually a serious thing?
00:13:14.100 Are we trying to achieve herd immunity in a moderated fashion?
00:13:18.780 Like, we'll take care of people who are most vulnerable,
00:13:21.740 but we actually will achieve this herd immunity?
00:13:24.560 Or are we locking down totally like China,
00:13:27.660 and we're just going to have, you know, six weeks of hell,
00:13:30.620 but then will the virus will be eradicated?
00:13:32.760 There was no actual strategic vision.
00:13:35.380 And that goes back, if I may,
00:13:38.280 that goes back in some ways to the Turkin model,
00:13:40.500 because we are so polarized that it's very difficult to agree on something.
00:13:44.640 Whereas if you go back to the period of World War II,
00:13:46.780 although there was polarization in the 30s,
00:13:49.720 it was, if you follow Turkin's models,
00:13:51.700 society was nowhere near as polarized as it is now.
00:13:53.900 Society has not been this polarized for a very, very long time,
00:13:57.840 since the 1860s, he suggests.
00:13:59.920 And so that means all of these divergent opinions.
00:14:03.520 And you've also had, since then,
00:14:04.880 increasing genetic diversity because of the lack of selection pressure.
00:14:08.420 And that means more divergent opinions, more people that are...
00:14:11.160 So you're not...
00:14:11.860 In a time where we have to do something decisive
00:14:14.340 and agree on something and agree that this is the strategy
00:14:17.360 we're all going to do and this is how it works,
00:14:19.360 like in a time of World War II or whatever,
00:14:21.860 we can't do that because there's such a divergent...
00:14:25.020 No one trusts anybody else.
00:14:27.420 People don't trust the motives of other people.
00:14:30.400 And there's any way such divergence of opinion
00:14:33.080 between those that are individualists,
00:14:35.020 which makes up those people,
00:14:36.480 and those that are more group-oriented and whatever.
00:14:38.760 And so you can't do anything without causing a fight.
00:14:41.400 And everything becomes political.
00:14:44.680 So you see this among both left and right, in fact.
00:14:49.460 I mean, look, I am not a physician.
00:14:52.080 I should say this once we get started.
00:14:55.460 I am an amateur in the best sense of the word
00:14:58.440 when it comes to thinking about these things,
00:15:00.740 like pandemics and disease.
00:15:02.740 But I do know something about it.
00:15:04.260 I can express opinion.
00:15:05.640 I'm not just shooting from the hip.
00:15:06.880 But, you know, there is evidence that hydroxychloroquine,
00:15:13.760 which was actually still used for lupus,
00:15:18.020 it was a malarial therapy,
00:15:22.060 actually can be useful in many cases.
00:15:25.720 But the fact is, Donald Trump came out for it
00:15:28.440 and he promoted it as a miracle drug.
00:15:30.720 And his supporters were like,
00:15:31.780 oh, this is it.
00:15:32.560 You know, we've solved this thing.
00:15:33.680 And then the liberals basically claimed
00:15:36.300 that you're just going to die if you take it
00:15:38.420 and it's useless and so on.
00:15:40.560 Everyone was kind of wrong.
00:15:43.280 Everything becomes politicized.
00:15:45.140 Wearing a mask becomes politicized.
00:15:47.080 Oh, there's liberals wearing a mask.
00:15:48.760 Whereas wearing a mask, I mean, look,
00:15:50.400 I wear a mask when I can.
00:15:52.700 It's just a way of working together
00:15:56.540 to lessen this disease.
00:15:58.840 Like, let's do this.
00:15:59.900 It's not that much of a burden.
00:16:01.520 But again, that becomes,
00:16:03.660 you must be a liberal if you're doing that.
00:16:05.400 And Trump plays up on this
00:16:06.560 and the liberals play up on it.
00:16:07.860 It's like using the veil.
00:16:10.740 It's like Islamic, Muslims in Turkey
00:16:12.880 using the veil or not using the veil.
00:16:15.820 You wear a mask.
00:16:17.380 You are making a very conspicuous,
00:16:19.360 symbolic statement about your attitude
00:16:21.260 towards the government,
00:16:23.800 towards the governmental authorities,
00:16:25.740 whatever.
00:16:26.160 You're making a statement of commitment
00:16:27.940 to what the, basically,
00:16:29.880 the powers that be
00:16:33.680 are telling you to do.
00:16:35.740 And you're signaling that strongly.
00:16:38.400 So I think it's inevitable
00:16:39.300 that something that's as black and white
00:16:41.400 as are you wearing a mask or not?
00:16:42.720 It's like, are you wearing the veil or not?
00:16:44.780 It's a commitment.
00:16:45.240 I agree, but it doesn't,
00:16:46.320 I mean, people,
00:16:47.500 there was major mask wearing
00:16:49.100 during the flu pandemic,
00:16:51.940 the Spanish flu pandemic
00:16:53.000 of 100 years ago.
00:16:54.500 I mean, there's some actually
00:16:55.340 striking photos of theaters
00:16:59.960 and buses where people are wearing
00:17:02.220 these kind of handmade cloth masks.
00:17:03.840 So, I mean, it doesn't have,
00:17:05.500 I mean, I guess it is a sign
00:17:06.860 in any way that you are conforming
00:17:09.380 and we're in this together.
00:17:10.460 We're going to work on this.
00:17:11.700 But now it becomes a, yeah,
00:17:14.860 it does become a sign
00:17:15.840 of political affiliation.
00:17:17.440 I mean, I think it's rather sad.
00:17:19.800 I want to be group oriented.
00:17:21.420 I want us to just get on board
00:17:23.620 and solve this thing.
00:17:26.120 But I guess what I was going back to before
00:17:28.380 when I was mentioning social mood,
00:17:31.380 even though I think Donald Trump
00:17:34.080 would always struggle with this virus
00:17:37.180 because basically his administration
00:17:39.560 was associated with a trauma,
00:17:41.240 whether it's an economic collapse
00:17:43.460 or a pandemic
00:17:44.800 or a loss of a war overseas
00:17:47.100 or whatever.
00:17:48.360 I think he would always be associated
00:17:50.200 with a trauma
00:17:50.860 and that's never good
00:17:52.240 when you're trying to run for re-election.
00:17:55.200 That being said,
00:17:56.640 I can easily imagine
00:17:58.780 a parallel universe
00:18:00.340 in which he really did
00:18:03.440 the right thing on this
00:18:04.700 and jumped on it
00:18:06.000 and owned it
00:18:07.120 and became the coronavirus president.
00:18:10.100 And in fact,
00:18:11.080 it kind of feeds into the energy
00:18:13.580 that he was expressing
00:18:14.780 in 2015 and 2016.
00:18:16.960 If this flu or this coronavirus
00:18:19.920 happened to occur during Obama,
00:18:23.140 I can guarantee you
00:18:24.600 that Trump would be out there saying,
00:18:27.100 these incompetent buffoons
00:18:28.340 don't know how to handle it.
00:18:29.900 I'm a businessman
00:18:32.460 and a brass tacks kind of guy.
00:18:35.720 This is what we got to do.
00:18:36.880 We've got to shut things down for a month
00:18:38.760 and eradicate this virus
00:18:40.020 and get a vaccine.
00:18:40.800 I can see him saying those things
00:18:42.980 in 2015 and 2016.
00:18:44.560 And I could imagine
00:18:45.500 if he had better advisors
00:18:46.700 and better instincts.
00:18:47.680 I think there's interesting parallels
00:18:49.860 actually between him
00:18:50.920 and Boris Johnson.
00:18:52.820 Both of them seem to be
00:18:54.280 that they,
00:18:54.800 well, with Boris Johnson,
00:18:55.960 he wanted this position
00:18:58.260 because he likes being popular.
00:19:01.160 He likes being the centre of attention.
00:19:02.760 He's a showman.
00:19:05.180 He was editor of The Spectator
00:19:07.580 and he decided to become an MP
00:19:08.880 because in his words,
00:19:09.780 they don't put up statues
00:19:11.160 to the critics.
00:19:12.380 So he obviously just wanted
00:19:13.340 to be remembered and whatever.
00:19:15.160 And he goes in
00:19:16.320 and he does all this
00:19:17.120 and he becomes leader.
00:19:18.380 He's just a big baby.
00:19:20.140 He's a big baby, yeah.
00:19:21.380 And he's driving.
00:19:22.380 And then he wins the election
00:19:23.700 with a landslide victory over Labour,
00:19:25.740 dispatches the left,
00:19:28.040 takes Britain out of the EU.
00:19:29.860 And then what?
00:19:31.500 Like, what else does he really want to do?
00:19:33.400 I don't think he's really got
00:19:34.260 any idea what he wants to do.
00:19:35.580 And I get the impression
00:19:36.340 he's just kind of exhausted.
00:19:38.420 And there's now speculation.
00:19:40.120 I mean, when this speculation
00:19:41.260 comes into the newspapers,
00:19:42.480 when people are whispering
00:19:43.300 behind the scenes,
00:19:43.980 you know there's something to it.
00:19:44.960 People are talking about,
00:19:45.960 you know, removing him.
00:19:46.840 People are talking about
00:19:47.640 how the real Boris has gone.
00:19:50.280 And I get, you know,
00:19:51.080 where's Boris gone?
00:19:52.180 When's Boris coming back?
00:19:53.180 And that he hasn't been himself
00:19:54.200 since he got Corona.
00:19:56.640 And that he's sort of lost it, really.
00:19:59.100 He's just sort of lost his mojo.
00:20:00.900 He's lost his drive.
00:20:02.260 He's not really in it anymore.
00:20:04.760 Do you think he's been
00:20:05.320 physically impaired by it?
00:20:06.740 Physically, yeah.
00:20:07.440 Physically problems.
00:20:08.220 I think I get the impression
00:20:09.260 that there's this idea
00:20:11.680 of the long COVID
00:20:12.800 that you get over it,
00:20:14.060 but you've got kind of fatigue.
00:20:15.500 And he's been asked about this.
00:20:17.440 He said, oh, it's born natural.
00:20:18.820 But I think it may be the case.
00:20:21.000 And I think with Trump,
00:20:21.820 I get the impression
00:20:22.360 he didn't think he'd win.
00:20:24.980 He didn't.
00:20:26.200 In 2016.
00:20:27.460 I know.
00:20:28.340 And he gets it
00:20:30.200 and it's extremely hard work.
00:20:31.760 And then on top of that,
00:20:33.080 now, God, this, for goodness sake.
00:20:35.340 This.
00:20:36.180 And OK, you can,
00:20:37.860 if you're the president of America,
00:20:39.080 you can delegate
00:20:40.160 to a much greater extent
00:20:41.420 than if you're
00:20:42.320 the prime minister of Britain.
00:20:43.280 I mean, if you're
00:20:43.560 the prime minister of Britain,
00:20:44.300 that's a bit like
00:20:44.640 being the governor of a state
00:20:45.800 in America.
00:20:46.760 It's much more hands-on.
00:20:48.420 But even so,
00:20:50.100 I get the impression
00:20:50.720 he's kind of had enough.
00:20:53.240 Right.
00:20:53.800 Both of them have kind of,
00:20:54.820 this is really hard work
00:20:56.560 to be in charge
00:20:58.060 during a crisis like this.
00:20:59.480 And this is too much.
00:21:01.760 Right.
00:21:02.740 I would stress this, though,
00:21:05.020 is that, you know,
00:21:06.520 when you hear the right-wing
00:21:08.040 commentary on the lockdowns
00:21:11.520 and the mask wearing
00:21:12.680 and everything,
00:21:14.220 what are they saying?
00:21:15.800 This is totalitarianism.
00:21:17.240 This is fascism.
00:21:18.680 And in some ways,
00:21:20.620 they're right.
00:21:21.440 Like this,
00:21:21.960 this is a moment
00:21:23.300 when the state
00:21:25.080 asserts its authority
00:21:27.420 and says,
00:21:28.160 we are group-oriented.
00:21:29.840 We are going to solve
00:21:31.940 this problem.
00:21:32.780 Only we can solve
00:21:34.240 this problem.
00:21:34.820 Because in fact,
00:21:35.920 in order to solve
00:21:37.460 the problem
00:21:37.940 of a contagious disease,
00:21:39.120 you are going to have
00:21:39.820 to force people
00:21:40.840 to do things
00:21:41.640 that they otherwise
00:21:42.900 wouldn't do.
00:21:44.540 And again,
00:21:45.820 this is nothing new.
00:21:47.360 The idea of quarantines,
00:21:49.420 shutting down borders,
00:21:50.380 shutting down ports,
00:21:51.740 this Black Death,
00:21:53.220 Spanish flu,
00:21:54.180 there are more examples
00:21:56.080 than you would ever need.
00:21:58.760 And so if Trump
00:21:59.960 had simply owned it,
00:22:01.500 and I remember this photo
00:22:02.820 when he first wore a mask
00:22:04.180 and they had him out,
00:22:05.820 they had a picture of him
00:22:06.920 being surrounded by bodyguards
00:22:08.480 wearing a mask.
00:22:09.860 It was badass.
00:22:11.880 He looked like Bain.
00:22:13.860 Like if he had,
00:22:15.800 I'm just saying that,
00:22:17.840 and all of his supporters
00:22:18.900 would have gotten into it
00:22:20.100 because as we've said,
00:22:21.020 it's all kind of
00:22:21.900 political symbology.
00:22:23.020 He should have brought a mask
00:22:25.920 with the American flag on it.
00:22:28.440 It's something, yes.
00:22:30.060 Yeah, exactly.
00:22:31.200 Make America safe again
00:22:33.880 or some slogan,
00:22:35.420 make America great again
00:22:36.240 on the mask.
00:22:37.580 If I were advising him
00:22:39.200 and not these nincompoops,
00:22:41.100 this is what we would have done.
00:22:42.920 And it would have been
00:22:43.800 better health-wise,
00:22:45.900 but it would have been
00:22:46.440 better politically.
00:22:47.460 He should have just
00:22:48.160 owned the crisis
00:22:49.300 and said,
00:22:50.760 get in line.
00:22:52.300 Like, this is what we're doing.
00:22:54.000 We're solving this thing.
00:22:55.160 This is a national trauma.
00:22:56.960 We're going to do this together.
00:22:58.080 But instead,
00:22:58.840 it was about the stock market
00:23:00.180 and it was the liberals
00:23:02.340 to a fault
00:23:03.940 kind of defer
00:23:04.840 to so-called experts.
00:23:06.860 And so he was just
00:23:07.820 getting into these
00:23:08.960 kind of conspiracy theories,
00:23:10.380 to be honest,
00:23:10.960 about it's going to go away.
00:23:12.380 It's not real.
00:23:13.760 It's a hoax.
00:23:14.500 It's a game.
00:23:16.000 And it wasn't.
00:23:16.880 It is real.
00:23:17.860 It's not as bad
00:23:19.000 as some doomsayers said.
00:23:22.120 Granted,
00:23:22.720 but it is not a hoax.
00:23:24.060 It's not a joke.
00:23:24.940 It's a real thing.
00:23:25.760 These things can happen.
00:23:26.900 And he should have just
00:23:27.880 owned the fascism,
00:23:29.320 to be honest,
00:23:29.840 just played into the stereotype.
00:23:31.820 And I think he would have been
00:23:33.560 in a much better position.
00:23:35.860 But he just...
00:23:37.780 Yeah.
00:23:38.860 COVID masks
00:23:40.020 with the United States flags on
00:23:41.460 would have been...
00:23:42.800 And the left wouldn't dare...
00:23:44.120 would then be forced into...
00:23:46.240 And it would be him
00:23:46.780 that would be directing it.
00:23:49.060 Yeah.
00:23:49.560 And it wouldn't have been
00:23:50.580 a conspiracy theorist.
00:23:51.680 They'd be like,
00:23:52.240 it's a Republican hoax.
00:23:53.700 This is how fascism
00:23:54.780 happens in America.
00:23:57.480 That's the problem.
00:23:58.400 At first,
00:23:59.180 we didn't know it was real.
00:24:00.900 And a lot of the stuff
00:24:01.620 that comes out of the media
00:24:03.380 and left-wing,
00:24:04.060 lies,
00:24:05.400 fake news.
00:24:06.620 And so consequently,
00:24:07.800 you can see why
00:24:08.800 you would end up
00:24:09.460 erring on the side of caution
00:24:10.820 and thinking that,
00:24:12.060 oh, well,
00:24:12.280 it could go away.
00:24:13.160 It could be nonsense.
00:24:14.620 And also,
00:24:15.260 the fact that there was
00:24:16.020 this dimension of it
00:24:17.500 of sort of shutting down
00:24:18.460 capitalism
00:24:19.160 and promoting the fact
00:24:21.100 that the Venice
00:24:22.620 has never been so clean,
00:24:23.680 the skies have never been so...
00:24:25.080 The air has never been so pure.
00:24:26.440 All of these dimensions to it.
00:24:27.960 So you can see why
00:24:29.140 he made that decision.
00:24:30.440 But that's the decision
00:24:31.300 that he made.
00:24:32.200 I mean,
00:24:32.420 Biden is now 14 points ahead
00:24:34.540 of Trump.
00:24:37.540 Yeah, initially, yeah.
00:24:39.880 Which is a lot.
00:24:41.380 I don't know.
00:24:42.040 What was Hillary?
00:24:42.660 How far was Hillary
00:24:43.500 ahead of Trump
00:24:44.040 at this stage?
00:24:44.900 Not that high.
00:24:45.780 It was a consistent
00:24:47.240 like six-point edge.
00:24:49.600 And then, you know,
00:24:50.960 again,
00:24:51.340 it's about these states
00:24:52.720 because most of the states
00:24:54.080 are pretty,
00:24:54.680 very stable,
00:24:55.580 but it's about these
00:24:56.320 so-called battleground states
00:24:58.080 and he's losing
00:24:58.760 in those battleground states.
00:25:00.120 Even Ohio,
00:25:01.120 which was kind of
00:25:01.660 becoming a red state,
00:25:03.740 he's now like
00:25:05.020 neck and neck
00:25:05.660 or tied.
00:25:07.020 Texas is fairly close,
00:25:08.340 but in terms of
00:25:08.940 Wisconsin, Michigan,
00:25:10.020 and these places
00:25:11.840 he's losing.
00:25:12.400 In terms of Arizona,
00:25:13.740 he's losing.
00:25:14.640 That's a fairly shocking one
00:25:17.540 if you look back
00:25:18.280 just in terms of history.
00:25:21.740 So, yeah,
00:25:22.140 it does not look good.
00:25:24.120 And I don't know.
00:25:24.960 I mean,
00:25:25.120 you could say
00:25:25.680 like a sympathy vote
00:25:26.720 for Trump,
00:25:27.780 but I don't know.
00:25:29.220 I just think
00:25:29.880 we're so mean
00:25:31.220 and nasty
00:25:31.780 these days.
00:25:32.860 I don't,
00:25:33.480 I think it's almost
00:25:34.040 the reverse.
00:25:34.840 Yeah,
00:25:35.240 so nasty
00:25:35.920 wishing him dead.
00:25:37.680 The idea of wishing
00:25:38.220 someone dead
00:25:40.100 like that,
00:25:40.700 not that they've done
00:25:41.920 something awful
00:25:42.500 or something
00:25:42.880 like murder
00:25:43.460 of a child,
00:25:44.180 but just because
00:25:45.420 you don't like
00:25:45.900 their political opinions.
00:25:47.520 And that's how
00:25:48.120 appalling it is
00:25:49.500 to wish him
00:25:50.780 to wallow
00:25:51.560 in the suffering
00:25:52.300 of this person
00:25:53.080 who say what
00:25:54.280 you like about him.
00:25:55.080 He's got a wife,
00:25:56.040 he's got children,
00:25:57.580 he's got a young child
00:25:59.180 in one case,
00:25:59.820 teenage boy.
00:26:01.160 So it's an appalling
00:26:03.220 thing to do,
00:26:03.900 but that's what
00:26:04.400 they're like.
00:26:04.960 You know,
00:26:05.120 that's how nasty
00:26:06.220 and polarised
00:26:06.940 it's become.
00:26:08.200 So I think that,
00:26:09.220 I don't know,
00:26:09.840 I'm still,
00:26:10.760 I know you're convinced
00:26:11.880 that Biden's going to win
00:26:12.960 and indeed you're going
00:26:13.540 to vote for him.
00:26:14.980 But I'm,
00:26:16.880 as you know,
00:26:18.360 I'm trying to win.
00:26:19.460 So I'll just jump on
00:26:20.520 anything.
00:26:21.420 I can't see anything
00:26:22.580 positive out of this
00:26:23.540 because the lifeblood
00:26:24.520 of the Donald Trump
00:26:25.180 campaign is these rallies
00:26:26.420 where he says
00:26:27.520 controversial things
00:26:28.660 and then people
00:26:29.360 working class
00:26:30.420 Americans think,
00:26:31.280 yeah,
00:26:31.420 he's like me,
00:26:32.560 he's one of my,
00:26:33.240 you know,
00:26:33.520 and they bond with him
00:26:35.720 and they're inclined
00:26:36.300 to vote for him
00:26:36.900 and the people
00:26:37.340 of Ohio
00:26:37.860 and the people
00:26:38.400 of Pennsylvania
00:26:39.260 and Wisconsin
00:26:39.860 who were factory
00:26:41.720 workers or whatever
00:26:42.560 are inspired
00:26:44.640 by these campaigns,
00:26:46.500 by the no-nonsense
00:26:47.700 Trump rally.
00:26:49.860 But presumably,
00:26:51.300 he's A,
00:26:52.840 going to be social
00:26:53.840 distancing or something
00:26:55.300 for a couple of weeks
00:26:56.220 so he won't be able
00:26:58.020 to do...
00:26:58.460 I don't think he'll be
00:26:59.080 out of the hospital
00:26:59.780 for at least another
00:27:00.660 10 days.
00:27:01.500 I mean,
00:27:01.700 I...
00:27:01.900 The rallies are going
00:27:03.040 to...
00:27:03.440 And then there's going
00:27:04.100 to be...
00:27:04.400 10 days,
00:27:05.060 that's a long time.
00:27:07.160 In a campaign...
00:27:07.480 We're going to run
00:27:07.820 a month out of the election.
00:27:09.000 Yeah.
00:27:09.560 What, a month?
00:27:11.360 How long is that?
00:27:12.680 It's a month, isn't it?
00:27:13.480 A month left.
00:27:14.860 Yes, one month left.
00:27:16.020 Yeah.
00:27:16.580 Right.
00:27:17.060 So you're knocking out
00:27:18.640 a couple of weeks
00:27:19.300 in the middle of the campaign
00:27:20.300 and then even when
00:27:21.080 the campaign gets
00:27:22.240 back on track,
00:27:23.980 then Biden...
00:27:25.580 I mean,
00:27:25.820 Biden's not suspending
00:27:26.820 his campaign,
00:27:27.640 is he?
00:27:27.860 Biden's just suspending
00:27:28.820 the negative advertising.
00:27:31.420 Supposedly.
00:27:32.520 He's still doing
00:27:33.680 negative advertising
00:27:34.620 on Facebook.
00:27:35.480 I saw that.
00:27:37.300 So, yeah.
00:27:38.660 So maybe that was
00:27:39.560 built in or something.
00:27:41.180 It gives him
00:27:43.380 a tremendous advantage.
00:27:44.460 But then, God,
00:27:44.920 I mean, what next?
00:27:45.500 What if Biden
00:27:46.060 catches this flu?
00:27:47.300 I know.
00:27:48.360 I know.
00:27:49.180 I mean,
00:27:49.860 that's quite possible.
00:27:52.760 Yeah.
00:27:52.860 And then he's even older.
00:27:55.500 And, okay,
00:27:56.440 he's not a thief,
00:27:57.440 but he's older.
00:27:59.240 And it's just...
00:28:02.060 God, it's just almost...
00:28:03.220 It's just...
00:28:04.540 It's quite a year.
00:28:05.960 It's a...
00:28:06.360 Yeah, this is quite a year.
00:28:07.680 If you said to me...
00:28:08.360 Just a write-off, basically.
00:28:09.780 It's a write-off of a year.
00:28:11.140 It's literally...
00:28:11.760 I've managed to do nothing
00:28:12.800 since about March.
00:28:14.160 I haven't been...
00:28:14.920 I haven't left the country.
00:28:16.960 I don't know.
00:28:17.320 I left...
00:28:17.580 I did go to Latvia briefly.
00:28:19.060 That's what it can.
00:28:20.640 I haven't been to England.
00:28:22.440 I haven't...
00:28:23.360 It's just a write-off
00:28:24.860 of a year.
00:28:25.500 I don't know how...
00:28:26.260 What other years have been this...
00:28:28.180 I mean,
00:28:28.440 this is meant to be
00:28:29.100 the year of Terrorhawks.
00:28:30.800 Remember Terrorhawks
00:28:31.820 in the 80s?
00:28:33.400 The year is 2020.
00:28:35.260 And it was...
00:28:35.740 It was about these people
00:28:37.660 fighting Zelda,
00:28:38.780 the evil alien space woman.
00:28:41.840 Terrorhawks.
00:28:42.240 It was 2020.
00:28:42.980 And I was a child thinking,
00:28:44.120 God, what will it be like
00:28:44.880 in 2020?
00:28:45.680 Terrorhawks.
00:28:46.120 You don't have Terrorhawks
00:28:46.880 in America?
00:28:47.360 No, okay.
00:28:48.040 Well, so yeah,
00:28:49.360 it's...
00:28:49.800 I don't think it could possibly
00:28:51.100 do his campaign any good
00:28:53.060 that he can't do rap.
00:28:54.380 It's not good.
00:28:55.680 So this could be
00:28:56.960 a turning point,
00:28:57.660 I wonder.
00:28:58.980 Yeah.
00:28:59.740 Well, let's talk a little bit
00:29:01.820 about the disease itself
00:29:03.920 because I think there's some...
00:29:06.000 You know,
00:29:06.480 there's some interesting things
00:29:08.020 that the mainstream media
00:29:10.460 is talking about.
00:29:12.560 And I'll focus on this line
00:29:14.740 that you hear from politicians
00:29:16.880 and celebrities
00:29:18.020 and advertisements
00:29:19.400 and so on.
00:29:20.160 We're all in this together.
00:29:22.320 And that, of course,
00:29:23.720 is correct
00:29:24.700 in the sense that
00:29:26.380 it's a, you know,
00:29:27.500 it's a contagious disease
00:29:28.680 and you can affect
00:29:30.740 its outcome
00:29:32.360 even if you don't suffer from it
00:29:34.400 and it doesn't discriminate
00:29:36.980 and all that kind of stuff.
00:29:38.340 That's obviously all true.
00:29:40.060 But it's not exactly true
00:29:43.360 when it comes to the people
00:29:44.360 who suffer from it.
00:29:46.420 So I have a couple things here.
00:29:48.540 I'll just start sharing my screen.
00:29:49.980 The first thing
00:29:50.980 that I wanted to talk about
00:29:52.940 was just
00:29:54.300 excessive mortality
00:29:57.220 and
00:29:58.260 this idea of herd immunity.
00:30:03.540 So this is just a graph
00:30:05.920 that I ginned up
00:30:08.040 on Our World and Data,
00:30:10.020 which is a really good website.
00:30:12.980 But I don't, you know,
00:30:15.160 I don't quite want to sound
00:30:17.320 like one of these
00:30:18.460 anti-lockdown people,
00:30:19.900 but I've been looking
00:30:22.240 at the data
00:30:23.160 and I've almost just become one
00:30:25.300 because I'm not going
00:30:27.320 to lie to anyone.
00:30:28.980 And so this is the data
00:30:31.420 of Sweden, Germany,
00:30:33.900 the United States.
00:30:34.620 Germany has actually
00:30:35.580 fared quite well.
00:30:38.840 And, you know,
00:30:39.700 the good news
00:30:40.500 about all this stuff
00:30:41.480 is that these are
00:30:42.500 excessive mortality.
00:30:43.980 So this is
00:30:44.500 people who are dying
00:30:46.120 in excess of where
00:30:47.040 they were last year
00:30:48.100 and the year before,
00:30:49.340 et cetera.
00:30:50.520 And this also demonstrates
00:30:52.240 that this is not
00:30:53.400 a hoax.
00:30:55.500 People are,
00:30:56.420 particularly during
00:30:57.440 March through June
00:30:59.860 or so,
00:31:00.240 people were driving
00:31:01.200 quite, you know,
00:31:02.060 much less
00:31:02.920 than they would otherwise.
00:31:03.840 so there was,
00:31:05.600 you know,
00:31:05.900 a huge fall
00:31:07.380 in car accident deaths
00:31:10.100 and also just due
00:31:11.360 to the lockdown,
00:31:12.020 there was also
00:31:12.800 just less deaths
00:31:13.680 of, say,
00:31:14.300 standard flu
00:31:15.180 and so on,
00:31:15.680 which usually kills
00:31:16.460 30,000 to 60,000
00:31:18.520 a year in the United States
00:31:19.860 and a similar percentage
00:31:21.400 in other countries.
00:31:22.680 But I guess...
00:31:23.680 That's interesting,
00:31:24.880 though, isn't it?
00:31:25.300 So the way
00:31:26.660 that Sweden works,
00:31:28.540 Sweden's curve
00:31:29.840 is quite similar
00:31:32.160 to America's.
00:31:33.800 So you've got
00:31:34.220 this massive mortality
00:31:35.480 in March to April.
00:31:38.420 But then Sweden
00:31:39.620 has done this
00:31:40.680 and has essentially
00:31:41.660 achieved herd immunity.
00:31:43.020 It's not what it looked like.
00:31:44.020 I don't think anyone's
00:31:45.060 achieved herd immunity.
00:31:46.280 I mean...
00:31:46.640 Anyway,
00:31:47.420 they're not having
00:31:48.080 another peak.
00:31:48.220 We've ended up
00:31:48.940 in the same place,
00:31:49.940 I think is what
00:31:50.800 the graph demonstrates
00:31:52.240 to me.
00:31:53.320 And, you know,
00:31:54.940 I say this,
00:31:56.960 I'm just simply
00:31:57.940 being honest.
00:31:58.640 I mean,
00:31:58.860 when it first hit,
00:32:00.520 I was definitely
00:32:01.340 in support of the lockdown.
00:32:02.640 We didn't know
00:32:03.500 what was happening
00:32:04.340 and so on.
00:32:05.260 And I am in support
00:32:06.080 of mask wearing.
00:32:06.820 I wear masks
00:32:07.500 to whenever I'm out
00:32:09.520 in public places
00:32:10.420 and so on.
00:32:12.680 Sometimes when I'm
00:32:13.860 outside,
00:32:14.720 like at things
00:32:15.420 less so
00:32:16.460 because it's simply safer.
00:32:19.040 I mean,
00:32:19.240 I support these things.
00:32:21.040 I want to go along
00:32:22.060 with, you know,
00:32:24.220 what health experts
00:32:25.560 are telling us.
00:32:26.360 I'm not a science denier,
00:32:28.220 et cetera,
00:32:28.680 but I just,
00:32:29.400 I'm also not a data denier
00:32:30.640 and we all ended up
00:32:31.720 in the same place.
00:32:33.380 And so the Swedish model
00:32:34.780 was not entirely laissez-faire,
00:32:37.360 but they were doing work
00:32:40.460 with, you know,
00:32:41.700 particularly vulnerable people
00:32:43.080 and people just simply
00:32:44.420 weren't going out as much
00:32:46.280 due to just natural fear.
00:32:48.600 And I think that's going
00:32:49.380 to happen across
00:32:50.080 the Western world
00:32:51.000 for the next two to three years,
00:32:52.780 to be honest.
00:32:53.860 But the fact is
00:32:54.740 we all ended up
00:32:55.780 in the same place
00:32:56.740 and it does raise
00:33:00.760 questions about the lockdown.
00:33:03.900 I don't think we're reaching
00:33:05.060 herd immunity
00:33:05.760 in the sense of
00:33:06.400 mathematically speaking,
00:33:07.840 herd immunity
00:33:08.320 is about 60%
00:33:10.120 have been exposed.
00:33:12.020 But I've actually heard
00:33:13.480 that some have suggested
00:33:14.420 that herd immunity
00:33:15.540 is lower than that
00:33:17.680 in effect.
00:33:18.560 but the fact is
00:33:20.100 I don't think
00:33:20.660 we're close to it
00:33:21.460 but we seem to have
00:33:22.280 just simply ended up
00:33:23.200 in the best place.
00:33:24.840 Hospitals have gotten
00:33:25.560 better at treating this,
00:33:27.380 which you would hope.
00:33:29.160 The ventilators,
00:33:30.780 that seemed to be
00:33:31.540 kind of a wrong path
00:33:32.820 that we went down.
00:33:34.100 We're not using that.
00:33:36.360 We're figuring out
00:33:37.260 better techniques
00:33:37.920 of treating these deaths.
00:33:39.200 A lot of the low-hanging fruit
00:33:40.500 have been picked
00:33:41.740 in the sense of people
00:33:42.700 who are really vulnerable
00:33:43.840 to this disease
00:33:44.820 for whatever reason
00:33:45.660 have died of it
00:33:46.840 and things are going down.
00:33:49.520 But this does,
00:33:51.700 you know,
00:33:52.200 charts like this
00:33:52.860 do raise questions
00:33:53.960 about the efficacy
00:33:56.940 of a lockdown
00:33:57.720 to be honest.
00:33:59.640 Yes, yes.
00:34:01.260 Because you see,
00:34:02.740 clearly,
00:34:03.600 it's very interesting
00:34:04.700 to see that actually.
00:34:05.460 I hadn't seen that
00:34:06.080 painted so starkly.
00:34:07.740 Yeah.
00:34:08.400 It's very interesting.
00:34:09.440 So it was Sweden
00:34:11.700 didn't close schools,
00:34:14.360 didn't do all this stuff
00:34:15.620 and it's just ended up
00:34:17.140 in the...
00:34:17.520 I mean,
00:34:17.760 there were more deaths
00:34:19.020 per capita in Sweden
00:34:20.120 than Finland.
00:34:23.360 But...
00:34:23.660 Yes.
00:34:25.320 It's paralleling.
00:34:26.500 It's an American kind of rate.
00:34:29.100 Yes.
00:34:30.320 Yes.
00:34:30.740 As we have done
00:34:31.460 these lockdowns.
00:34:33.540 So this is interesting.
00:34:36.320 Let me try to
00:34:38.100 blow this up
00:34:40.480 a little bit.
00:34:41.840 So this...
00:34:43.360 So in terms of
00:34:44.520 herd immunity
00:34:46.100 and so on,
00:34:46.820 I think we're just all
00:34:47.780 kind of headed
00:34:48.680 towards the same place,
00:34:49.840 whether we like it or not.
00:34:51.280 And also just,
00:34:52.300 we don't have
00:34:53.260 the discipline
00:34:54.740 that the Chinese have,
00:34:57.600 both in terms of the state
00:34:59.080 and the people,
00:35:00.880 in terms of just
00:35:01.600 obeying orders
00:35:02.560 and the state
00:35:03.640 being willing to,
00:35:04.980 you know,
00:35:06.220 use effectively
00:35:08.200 totalitarian methods
00:35:09.400 in order to fight this.
00:35:10.900 We just simply
00:35:11.460 don't have that type
00:35:12.340 of discipline.
00:35:14.200 And so even though
00:35:15.760 we had a lockdown,
00:35:16.800 even though mask wearing
00:35:17.780 is ubiquitous,
00:35:20.280 you know,
00:35:21.000 it's still going to
00:35:22.480 get out there
00:35:23.080 and we're just going to
00:35:23.800 end up in the same place,
00:35:25.140 whichever technique we use.
00:35:26.720 This is kind of interesting.
00:35:28.000 This is CDC data.
00:35:29.880 So it's government statistics
00:35:32.440 and their websites
00:35:33.880 aren't as nice
00:35:35.020 as the private sphere,
00:35:37.720 like our world and data.
00:35:38.880 But basically,
00:35:41.240 we are seeing
00:35:42.680 really stark disparities
00:35:45.280 in terms of race.
00:35:47.960 So this is a chart
00:35:50.880 that is adjusted
00:35:52.780 and for percentage
00:35:55.640 of the population.
00:35:56.600 And that gray bar
00:35:58.640 is non-Hispanic whites.
00:36:01.820 The light purple
00:36:03.420 is Hispanics.
00:36:05.840 And the darker purple
00:36:08.600 is non-Hispanic American Indians.
00:36:11.660 And then that green,
00:36:13.880 that dark green
00:36:14.700 is African Americans
00:36:17.020 or non-Hispanic black.
00:36:18.980 And this basically shows
00:36:21.280 the death rates
00:36:22.860 as a proportion
00:36:24.260 of the population.
00:36:25.260 And again,
00:36:25.820 if we were all
00:36:26.840 in this together,
00:36:27.760 then it would be
00:36:30.040 totally random.
00:36:31.080 But no,
00:36:31.920 we know about age disparities.
00:36:33.800 I mean,
00:36:34.380 the silver lining of this
00:36:35.480 is that children
00:36:36.580 are not dying.
00:36:38.100 I think that would have
00:36:40.180 changed things dramatically
00:36:42.080 if that were the case.
00:36:43.040 If middle-aged people
00:36:44.340 were surviving
00:36:44.940 and kids were being
00:36:46.180 most affected,
00:36:46.900 I think people would have
00:36:47.840 rightfully freaked out.
00:36:49.900 That was what was happening
00:36:51.500 with the Spanish flu.
00:36:52.480 We're not kids,
00:36:53.000 but it was younger.
00:36:55.780 It was the older people
00:36:57.660 that were over 40
00:36:58.760 or something.
00:36:59.360 They were all right.
00:37:00.680 Yeah,
00:37:01.120 it's interesting
00:37:02.700 because there was
00:37:04.020 a pandemic that,
00:37:05.220 a lesser-known pandemic
00:37:06.560 that came before
00:37:07.680 the Spanish flu
00:37:08.380 called the Russian flu.
00:37:10.300 And some have speculated
00:37:12.080 that the older generations
00:37:13.840 that had lived through that
00:37:15.420 had built up
00:37:16.240 some immunity to this.
00:37:18.440 But yeah,
00:37:19.160 it was a very different situation
00:37:21.000 where younger people
00:37:22.680 in their 20s and 30s
00:37:24.260 were dying
00:37:26.560 and older people
00:37:27.640 were less affected.
00:37:28.840 And yeah,
00:37:30.660 I mean,
00:37:30.960 that is,
00:37:31.880 I mean,
00:37:32.280 I don't want to be cruel,
00:37:34.160 but that is,
00:37:35.900 this is better than that.
00:37:38.860 I mean,
00:37:39.100 you know,
00:37:40.020 there is a difference
00:37:41.400 between someone
00:37:41.960 who's 85 dying
00:37:43.100 and someone who's 25 dying.
00:37:44.640 Let's be honest.
00:37:46.820 But I think
00:37:48.180 what is showing up here,
00:37:50.500 and this has not been discussed
00:37:52.360 in the media
00:37:53.560 to the degree
00:37:54.360 that I thought it would be,
00:37:55.740 but we're seeing
00:37:57.720 serious disparities
00:37:59.140 in terms of race.
00:38:00.840 And I think
00:38:01.780 a lot of these
00:38:02.660 maybe can be explained
00:38:05.520 in terms of economics
00:38:07.560 in the sense of,
00:38:09.640 you know,
00:38:11.200 whites just being
00:38:12.540 better off
00:38:13.740 and getting better access
00:38:15.900 to healthcare,
00:38:16.500 just being healthier
00:38:17.260 because they're better off
00:38:18.340 being,
00:38:18.740 you know,
00:38:19.040 exercising more,
00:38:20.220 eating better,
00:38:20.980 and so on.
00:38:22.020 Also,
00:38:23.300 if they're more intelligent
00:38:25.060 as well,
00:38:25.580 then people that are intelligent
00:38:26.500 independent of how rich
00:38:27.900 they are tend to make
00:38:28.620 better health decisions.
00:38:30.100 Right.
00:38:30.320 And they're more
00:38:30.660 future-oriented.
00:38:32.100 Yes.
00:38:33.280 So,
00:38:34.320 a lot of that
00:38:35.660 can be explained
00:38:36.940 that way,
00:38:38.000 but I can't imagine
00:38:39.740 that all of it
00:38:40.760 can be explained
00:38:41.700 that way.
00:38:42.340 Well,
00:38:42.480 no,
00:38:42.600 we know in Britain
00:38:43.520 that if you look
00:38:44.820 at NHS workers
00:38:46.340 in Britain
00:38:46.960 and doctors
00:38:48.040 and things like that,
00:38:49.060 then South Asian doctors
00:38:51.200 are disproportionately
00:38:52.060 dying of this
00:38:53.680 or having serious
00:38:54.560 complications
00:38:55.100 compared to white doctors
00:38:56.440 and you're very
00:38:57.440 substantially controlling
00:38:58.620 for socioeconomic status
00:39:00.180 if you're just looking
00:39:00.880 at doctors
00:39:01.440 or looking at doctors
00:39:02.320 and nurses
00:39:02.860 and so it implies
00:39:05.000 that there is a,
00:39:06.180 and then a genetic component
00:39:07.560 and then there was a study
00:39:08.500 in the Lancet,
00:39:09.240 I think it was,
00:39:10.340 which showed
00:39:11.160 the British Medical Journal
00:39:12.380 which found that
00:39:13.620 this is hugely
00:39:14.880 disproportionately
00:39:15.480 influencing Somalis
00:39:16.940 in Sweden
00:39:18.580 and Finland
00:39:19.140 and that they have
00:39:20.780 to have,
00:39:21.800 they're vitamin D deficient
00:39:23.260 and that they have
00:39:23.940 to have double
00:39:24.620 the vitamin D dosage
00:39:25.860 that a white has to have
00:39:26.940 in order not to be
00:39:27.720 vitamin D deficient
00:39:28.840 and so,
00:39:30.180 and vitamin D deficiency
00:39:31.220 seems to be something
00:39:32.040 that would cause these,
00:39:33.960 would contribute
00:39:34.860 to these disparities.
00:39:36.820 So,
00:39:37.420 yeah,
00:39:38.360 probably part of it
00:39:39.760 is bound to be
00:39:40.380 that if you're black,
00:39:41.740 you're poor
00:39:42.160 and you're exposed
00:39:43.280 to it more
00:39:44.340 through living,
00:39:45.320 cramped conditions
00:39:46.080 and whatever
00:39:46.540 and you have
00:39:48.420 low average IQ
00:39:49.220 and so you're going
00:39:49.900 to make bad health choices
00:39:51.040 and be more likely
00:39:51.960 to be unhealthy anyway,
00:39:52.960 more likely to have
00:39:53.580 things like diabetes
00:39:54.540 and high blood pressure
00:39:57.460 and other underlying
00:39:58.040 health conditions.
00:39:59.380 But similarly,
00:40:00.260 I mean,
00:40:01.160 the health level
00:40:02.160 of the African,
00:40:03.100 of the Native Americans
00:40:03.960 is extremely poor
00:40:05.240 and worse
00:40:07.680 than that of blacks.
00:40:08.980 Okay,
00:40:09.140 they live in
00:40:09.780 sparsely populated areas
00:40:12.060 on the whole.
00:40:13.180 If you've been
00:40:13.580 to the Navajo Nation
00:40:14.480 as I have,
00:40:15.040 it's very sparse
00:40:15.660 in population.
00:40:17.400 But what would make sense
00:40:18.620 of that would be
00:40:19.620 that the blacks
00:40:21.780 are so high
00:40:22.760 because of vitamin D deficiency
00:40:24.480 that they're unhealthy
00:40:25.520 for that reason as well.
00:40:27.320 And so,
00:40:27.780 because in Africa itself,
00:40:29.180 okay,
00:40:29.520 the data is not,
00:40:30.440 how can we be sure
00:40:31.340 what's going on in Africa?
00:40:32.380 The data is not good,
00:40:33.240 but it doesn't appear
00:40:34.000 to have very badly
00:40:34.980 impacted Africa.
00:40:35.980 It's not cutting a swathe
00:40:37.120 through even South Africa,
00:40:39.440 which is quite densely populated
00:40:41.540 and that will be consistent
00:40:42.720 with the fact,
00:40:43.160 well,
00:40:43.240 they're not vitamin D deficient there.
00:40:44.620 They're living in the environment
00:40:45.540 to which they're adapted.
00:40:47.000 Right.
00:40:47.500 And so,
00:40:48.120 if the illness comes,
00:40:50.320 they're fighting it off
00:40:51.200 and you do get flu in Africa
00:40:52.760 because it's wet.
00:40:53.760 It's a hot,
00:40:54.320 wet climate
00:40:54.800 and it's wet.
00:40:55.800 It's the wet
00:40:56.420 that allows flu to breathe.
00:40:59.620 So,
00:40:59.920 I think it's partly,
00:41:01.300 yeah,
00:41:01.540 it's partly,
00:41:02.280 I think people are gradually
00:41:03.260 kind of having to breathe
00:41:04.040 and they don't want to accept it
00:41:05.220 because,
00:41:05.560 you know,
00:41:05.640 the sort of Angela Sany nonsense
00:41:07.080 about how there's no such thing
00:41:08.240 as race
00:41:08.680 and race differences
00:41:09.740 are only in superficial things
00:41:11.020 like skin and colour.
00:41:11.820 Well,
00:41:12.620 A,
00:41:13.420 they're not only in superficial things,
00:41:16.120 they're all kinds of things,
00:41:17.140 that's the nature of race,
00:41:18.300 they're genetic clusters,
00:41:19.280 then all kinds of things,
00:41:20.640 earwax composition,
00:41:21.820 numerous things,
00:41:22.420 as I will show you
00:41:23.140 in my forthcoming book.
00:41:24.840 But B,
00:41:25.660 of course,
00:41:26.400 skin is not a superficial thing.
00:41:28.520 Skin is an adaptation
00:41:29.680 to a specific environment
00:41:31.700 and if you or I were to go
00:41:33.320 to Northern Australia,
00:41:34.740 we'd be more likely
00:41:35.440 to get cancer,
00:41:37.080 skin cancer,
00:41:37.980 as a consequence
00:41:38.520 of our skin
00:41:39.520 is not adapted
00:41:40.340 to high levels of sunlight
00:41:42.140 all the time
00:41:43.020 and similarly,
00:41:44.020 therefore,
00:41:44.300 if you get it with dark skin,
00:41:45.820 somewhere that's cold
00:41:46.520 and dark in the winter,
00:41:47.800 then you're more likely
00:41:48.500 to be vitamin D deficient
00:41:49.660 and therefore more likely
00:41:50.820 to develop certain kinds
00:41:52.420 of illnesses,
00:41:53.640 including flu.
00:41:55.160 And so,
00:41:56.080 there's nothing superficial
00:41:58.900 about skin
00:41:59.900 except in the literal sense
00:42:01.460 that it is on top of it.
00:42:02.800 It is on the surface.
00:42:05.160 So,
00:42:05.700 I think that it raises
00:42:06.520 that problem
00:42:07.060 and they really don't want
00:42:07.940 to have to accept that,
00:42:09.160 but they're going to have to,
00:42:10.180 really.
00:42:10.440 I mean,
00:42:10.600 we know it from organ trans,
00:42:11.980 this schizophrenic attitude,
00:42:14.080 but we know it from
00:42:14.660 organ transplants
00:42:16.080 that you're more likely
00:42:18.120 to reject an organ
00:42:19.300 if the person is
00:42:20.080 from a different race
00:42:21.020 from you.
00:42:21.480 Of course you are
00:42:22.020 because you'll be less similar
00:42:23.140 to them
00:42:23.500 than they would be
00:42:24.040 if they were the same race.
00:42:25.220 And there's a lack
00:42:25.920 of South Asian donor organs
00:42:27.820 in Britain.
00:42:28.820 So,
00:42:28.960 there's all these South Asians
00:42:29.840 that need donor organs
00:42:30.920 and there's no pool of them.
00:42:33.580 The people,
00:42:33.900 they don't donate.
00:42:34.800 They don't want to have
00:42:35.260 their bodies cut up.
00:42:36.200 They have religious reasons
00:42:37.640 for objecting.
00:42:39.460 Right.
00:42:40.240 And so,
00:42:41.380 it's just in line
00:42:42.400 with that,
00:42:42.860 really.
00:42:43.220 So,
00:42:43.580 yeah,
00:42:43.740 I think that's what's going on
00:42:44.720 with the,
00:42:45.420 it's a perfect storm
00:42:46.880 of problems
00:42:47.440 which is going to impact
00:42:48.240 blacks more.
00:42:49.380 To a lesser extent,
00:42:50.300 it will impact Native Americans
00:42:51.540 more,
00:42:53.040 perhaps because
00:42:53.720 that's just,
00:42:54.700 I mean,
00:42:54.960 they're living in the environment
00:42:55.740 to which they're adapted
00:42:56.560 but then they have another problem
00:42:58.460 which is that they're less adapted
00:42:59.520 to dealing with flu
00:43:00.400 because when we came to America
00:43:02.900 and in many cases
00:43:03.740 until the 19th century,
00:43:04.940 they were herders
00:43:05.620 which meant they didn't have
00:43:06.820 that much animals
00:43:07.860 as agriculturalists do
00:43:08.880 which means they were less
00:43:09.740 riven by things like flu
00:43:10.920 which means they're less adapted
00:43:11.980 to flu
00:43:12.460 which means they're less likely
00:43:13.420 to be able to deal properly
00:43:15.140 with flu
00:43:15.640 whereas we've co-evolved
00:43:16.900 with flu
00:43:17.400 over we whites
00:43:18.740 over the last
00:43:19.900 you know,
00:43:21.300 10,000 years
00:43:22.720 so
00:43:23.640 that,
00:43:25.360 or a bit less than that
00:43:26.200 but
00:43:26.440 whatever,
00:43:27.600 5,000 years
00:43:28.240 but the point is
00:43:28.920 that a lot of them
00:43:29.440 were supposed to flu
00:43:30.700 until the white man
00:43:31.560 came into their territories
00:43:33.000 in many cases
00:43:34.020 in the 1800s
00:43:35.140 right
00:43:35.940 so
00:43:36.240 that's what's going on
00:43:38.140 Yeah
00:43:38.980 and I mean
00:43:39.940 obviously
00:43:40.360 there are huge
00:43:40.940 age disparities
00:43:41.960 this was just something
00:43:43.940 I was reminding myself of
00:43:45.440 but
00:43:45.700 of
00:43:46.520 but the
00:43:47.140 58
00:43:48.120 is actually
00:43:48.940 the most common age
00:43:50.680 among whites
00:43:51.520 whereas
00:43:52.440 among
00:43:53.080 Hispanics
00:43:54.420 the most common age
00:43:55.640 is 11
00:43:56.220 among blacks
00:43:57.320 is 27
00:43:58.100 among Asians
00:43:58.840 is 29
00:43:59.540 so I mean
00:44:00.200 white people
00:44:01.320 are
00:44:01.860 just seriously
00:44:03.480 older
00:44:04.320 as a group
00:44:05.420 than
00:44:06.180 other races
00:44:06.980 and
00:44:07.640 clearly
00:44:08.900 this is affecting
00:44:10.020 the elderly
00:44:11.900 more than it's affecting
00:44:12.720 young people
00:44:13.180 and the elderly
00:44:13.680 just by the nature
00:44:15.020 of being old
00:44:15.620 they're going to have
00:44:16.100 more comorbidities
00:44:18.120 etc
00:44:19.340 but
00:44:20.620 it does seem
00:44:22.080 again
00:44:22.420 from the data
00:44:23.500 that we have
00:44:24.280 it's worth raising
00:44:25.680 as well
00:44:26.220 that
00:44:26.920 black people
00:44:28.180 age more quickly
00:44:29.540 than white people
00:44:30.520 as again
00:44:32.180 I'm trying to
00:44:32.800 look
00:44:32.940 they have a faster
00:44:33.740 life history strategy
00:44:34.860 so the average
00:44:35.580 they go through
00:44:36.880 the menopause
00:44:37.520 for example
00:44:38.000 a couple of years
00:44:38.680 younger than white people
00:44:39.700 age
00:44:40.620 they're literally
00:44:42.120 older
00:44:42.920 for their age
00:44:45.180 which would be
00:44:46.020 the problem
00:44:46.400 as well
00:44:46.720 they're age
00:44:47.920 they're just more elderly
00:44:48.780 than white people
00:44:49.920 a 70 year old
00:44:51.320 black person
00:44:51.940 is physically
00:44:52.580 older
00:44:53.220 than a 70 year old
00:44:54.180 white person
00:44:54.780 so that would
00:44:55.460 as well
00:44:56.180 but again
00:44:59.520 it does seem
00:45:00.540 to be
00:45:01.160 that
00:45:01.780 this
00:45:02.340 just
00:45:02.620 basic
00:45:03.420 vitamin D
00:45:04.400 which is
00:45:04.860 I mean
00:45:05.140 I know
00:45:05.580 that
00:45:05.920 when I got
00:45:07.140 I got really sick
00:45:08.300 in 2016
00:45:09.180 I had something
00:45:10.360 I don't know
00:45:10.780 I had a sinus infection
00:45:11.960 or flu
00:45:12.660 or some combination
00:45:13.740 of things
00:45:14.060 I was finally
00:45:14.720 put on antibiotics
00:45:15.760 but I
00:45:16.180 I kind of had
00:45:16.900 a whole month
00:45:17.740 where I was
00:45:18.440 had flu-like
00:45:20.060 symptoms
00:45:20.460 and
00:45:21.100 the doctor
00:45:22.460 said that
00:45:22.900 it was a vitamin D
00:45:23.800 deficiency
00:45:24.360 that I was getting
00:45:26.240 just because
00:45:26.680 I was in
00:45:27.240 from Montana
00:45:28.300 during that long period
00:45:29.340 and
00:45:29.920 there's not enough
00:45:31.540 sunlight
00:45:31.880 out here
00:45:32.840 so I mean
00:45:33.340 vitamin D
00:45:34.140 is just a key
00:45:34.960 component
00:45:35.480 of a healthy
00:45:36.020 immune system
00:45:36.700 and
00:45:37.260 you know
00:45:39.000 in this case
00:45:39.860 in terms of race
00:45:40.740 and skin color
00:45:41.680 in particular
00:45:42.260 this is
00:45:42.980 there's just
00:45:43.760 an evolutionary
00:45:44.320 mismatch
00:45:45.060 of people
00:45:45.700 not
00:45:46.060 getting the vitamin D
00:45:47.880 they need
00:45:48.280 from the sun
00:45:48.840 yep
00:45:49.940 but there
00:45:51.700 it is
00:45:52.400 okay
00:45:54.900 let's
00:45:55.920 put a bookmark
00:45:56.760 in it
00:45:57.080 but
00:45:57.440 good discussion
00:45:58.940 and
00:46:00.320 we will see
00:46:01.720 everyone
00:46:02.320 in
00:46:02.900 three or four
00:46:03.780 days
00:46:04.020 of the next
00:46:04.380 show
00:46:04.640 thank you
00:46:05.540 bye-bye
00:46:19.940 bye-bye
00:46:21.080 bye-bye
00:46:22.640 love you
00:46:22.780 peace
00:46:23.480 bye bye
00:46:24.340 bye
00:46:25.480 We'll be right back.
00:46:55.480 We'll be right back.