RadixJournal - Election 2020 Analysis

00:00:00.000 It's Wednesday, November 11th, 2020, and welcome back to The McSpencer Group, an unrehearsed,

00:00:08.220 hastily assembled discussion about metapolitics.

00:00:11.940 Joining me today is Edward Dutton.

00:00:15.280 Main topic, somehow everyone lost.

00:00:19.360 This past week's presidential election went exactly as expected. 0.99

00:00:23.840 It was a complete shitshow. 0.99

00:00:25.640 Liberals went to bed on Tuesday, crying and screaming, thinking that Trump had somehow won again, 1.00

00:00:32.060 and their country was, indeed, racist.

00:00:35.340 But as mail-in ballots arrived, their gloating began.

00:00:39.800 Conservatives, on the other hand, declared victory early and danced on the graves of pollsters.

00:00:46.040 But as the final tallies materialized, they were the ones whining and denying reality like a bunch of SJWs.

00:00:53.820 Put simply, Americans hate each other, and it's impossible to imagine any election not being as heinous as this one.

00:01:01.800 Ed and I discussed the real problems with mail-in ballots and Donald Trump's electoral woes with the people that got him elected in the first place.

00:01:10.100 Ed, how are you doing? You look very cheerful.

00:01:12.680 I'm not a particularly jolly heretic at the moment, it has to be said.

00:01:18.960 Well, you said the world might be ending. I'm not sure it's going to be that bad.

00:01:21.940 Well, I mean, if the QAnon conspiracy theory is correct, then the savior has not manifested. 0.98

00:01:30.120 The savior has not manifested to take down the bad hombres that are running the world.

00:01:37.740 Well, isn't this the storm that was promised to us?

00:01:41.760 Oh, is this the storm?

00:01:42.960 This is the storm. You've just misread prophecy, as usual.

00:01:48.780 So he is going, oh yeah, well, that's the thing, the prophecies were quite vague and often seemed to be wrong.

00:01:53.300 But on this occasion, Trump's ultimately going to triumph in some way that is unclear.

00:01:59.880 It's like with God answering prayers.

00:02:01.440 He doesn't answer them in exactly the way you ask them to, but he does answer them.

00:02:05.180 He moves in mysterious ways, yeah.

00:02:07.140 That reassures me. Okay, fine. Good. Okay.

00:02:10.400 Yes, everything's fine.

00:02:11.940 Excellent.

00:02:12.220 All right, so now that you've been relieved, we can now talk about what just happened.

00:02:19.680 So, yeah, this is wild.

00:02:22.220 I mean, we can just start talking about kind of personal impressions and so on.

00:02:28.660 I have to say, I do feel a little bit better knowing what happened.

00:02:32.740 I have had a really serious Twitter addiction over the last week.

00:02:38.160 I can usually keep my Twitter usage under control, but I've been totally addicted.

00:02:43.080 And I actually wrote myself a little note, like, dear Richard, get off Twitter.

00:02:49.840 You know you have more important work to do.

00:02:51.680 There are bigger things in the world.

00:02:53.060 So I will be doing that.

00:02:55.020 I'm going to be lightly using social media.

00:02:57.300 I know.

00:02:57.700 You're even, quote, tweeting me and disagreeing with me.

00:03:00.420 Oh, I dared to criticize.

00:03:06.120 It's true.

00:03:07.020 I always disagree with you very respectfully because I know that you're actually going to make a real argument.

00:03:15.020 But that has been my impression.

00:03:17.120 I think everyone was a bit catatonic over the past few days.

00:03:21.700 We just, it was, we didn't, we wanted closure for a long time.

00:03:27.260 We didn't get it.

00:03:28.240 And, but how have you, but you seem to be taking this a little bit more harder than I have.

00:03:34.800 I mean, I voted for the winner.

00:03:37.180 So I tried to get a mental framing of like, see, I've won.

00:03:42.500 That wasn't all of it, but that was part of it.

00:03:44.640 No, I'm, I just, I just don't, I don't, as you know, I like to make sense of things.

00:03:53.640 I like structure and order and things like that.

00:03:55.900 And this is a period of disorder and that makes me unhappy.

00:04:00.840 I like to know what's going on.

00:04:03.460 I like to know exactly what's going on to be able to sort of work out what's happening.

00:04:07.520 I really can't be sure precisely what's going to occur.

00:04:14.640 But I think the really interesting thing for me was the consequences of the postal vote.

00:04:19.500 Because we had, we had this in, in Britain and it worked a charm.

00:04:24.120 And we had, they had it in America for different reasons and it worked a charm.

00:04:28.100 So in Britain in 2004, I think it might've been, the Labour Party were concerned for the good of their morale and whatever,

00:04:37.320 but they were going to do badly in the European elections.

00:04:41.060 The European elections, of course, we don't, Britain's not in Europe anymore.

00:04:43.940 And they weren't really very important and they were by proportional representation rather than by first past the post.

00:04:52.440 And so this meant that unusual parties could do well and this could give vent to extremism and give a platform to extremism.

00:05:00.660 Well, Nick Griffin was in the European Parliament.

00:05:02.240 Exactly. Well, this is what they were trying to stop.

00:05:04.280 So what they were concerned about was the rise of the UK Independence Party, which was, of course, regarded as a far right party,

00:05:10.580 and of the BNP, which was regarded as a British National Party, which was regarded as an even more far right party.

00:05:15.440 And particularly them they didn't like because that very substantially took votes away from the Labour Party.

00:05:19.220 And so concerned that they were going to win seats in the 2004 European election, they brought in, Britain was divided into these various large regions.

00:05:29.780 One of them was the North West, the other was the North East, whatever.

00:05:32.580 And the North West was the one where that party had support and councillors.

00:05:36.980 And so they brought in compulsory voting by post.

00:05:41.860 So you couldn't, everyone voted by post.

00:05:44.360 That was what they brought in.

00:05:45.880 Now, they claimed it was an experiment.

00:05:47.440 It's an experiment with voting by post.

00:05:49.200 You know, you used to have to give an excuse to have a postal ballot, a good excuse that you were disabled or something like that. 0.98

00:05:56.040 But you didn't have to have an excuse and you couldn't even vote in person.

00:05:59.240 Everything was by postal ballot.

00:06:01.320 The result of that was two interesting things.

00:06:04.480 One, yes, it substantially elevated the turnout.

00:06:08.660 So normally people don't bother to vote in European elections because they're not considered particularly important.

00:06:13.200 They don't have real power. Who cares?

00:06:14.720 So it massively elevated the turnout because all of these lazy people who in the past, I can't bugger to go and vote.

00:06:20.140 I've got to go in person to the polling station.

00:06:22.140 It could be a half hour walk away or whatever.

00:06:24.400 I'm not going to do that.

00:06:25.580 They can just, you know, just go to the local post or post box at the end of the road or even just send their wife to the post box at the end of the road. 0.70

00:06:32.420 So they vote.

00:06:33.360 And those people will tend not to be particularly interested, not particularly politically engaged, not particularly fervent.

00:06:39.720 And so they vote for rather centrist parties, like the Labour Party, let's say, or Conservative Party.

00:06:45.100 Whereas the parties of the extreme, those people really are into it.

00:06:48.480 They really want to vote.

00:06:49.580 And so they and so they will they will always vote.

00:06:51.900 And so therefore, it artificially elevates the turnout and suppresses the results of these parties that have more fervent supporters.

00:06:58.540 That's exactly what it did.

00:07:00.280 And that seems to have been what has happened with the American election, with the elevated turnout, which is all of these people who wouldn't otherwise bother to vote because they're lazy and don't care.

00:07:09.200 It's much easier for them to vote.

00:07:11.680 So they do vote and they vote for the Democrats.

00:07:14.920 So I think that's a big thing.

00:07:16.920 I think if COVID hadn't been there and there hadn't been this easy access to postal voting, then the result might have been different.

00:07:22.520 I agree with that, actually.

00:07:24.640 And let me also jump in.

00:07:27.220 I am against this vote by mail thing.

00:07:31.220 And so I'll give a little bit of a pass to them in terms of COVID because we know what COVID was, you know, back in May or something like this when these things were first being floated.

00:07:44.820 But now we do know what COVID is and Democrats, you know, all these people who support mail-in voting and so on are, you know, blissfully tweeting about these big rallies of liberals celebrating Joe Biden.

00:07:57.740 They're dancing.

00:07:59.120 They're kissing each other.

00:08:00.500 They're not wearing masks.

00:08:02.020 They're clearly super spreading a highly contagious disease.

00:08:06.600 And these people don't care, much like they didn't care when Black Lives Matter went out into the streets.

00:08:11.580 So I don't take them seriously, to be honest.

00:08:16.160 And the other thing is, this is almost like philosophical.

00:08:19.500 I don't like the idea of mail-in voting.

00:08:22.080 I think it should be available if for like, you know, if you're in the military or if you're a businessman who happens to be overseas or you're disabled.

00:08:29.660 Okay, fine.

00:08:30.820 You know, it's like 5% of the population at most votes by mail or the voting population votes by mail.

00:08:36.180 That's okay.

00:08:36.820 But I just I think the election needs to be an event.

00:08:40.920 But it's not a poll.

00:08:43.280 It's not an ongoing poll where someone's voting in August and someone's voting in September and they kind of change their mind.

00:08:49.560 There's a lot of there's like major Google searches of can I change my vote?

00:08:53.120 I think it I actually will fully agree with conservatives here.

00:08:59.320 It should be an event.

00:09:01.020 And you need to jump through some hoops if you want to vote by mail and you should go.

00:09:06.480 It captures a moment in time.

00:09:09.280 It is like a sports game.

00:09:10.580 You don't get to delay the match if you're or the game if your quarterback is hurt.

00:09:15.740 You don't just say, oh, let's play next week or let's play.

00:09:18.160 Yeah, it has to be on a day.

00:09:20.920 Exactly.

00:09:21.740 You play on Sunday at noon.

00:09:24.260 The assumption in a democracy is that you're voting for the best.

00:09:27.600 You're not only voting for the policies of the party, but you're voting also for the particularly with the presidency.

00:09:32.660 You're voting for the best possible candidate and therefore you need to be equipped with all possible information about that candidate.

00:09:38.840 And you can only be equipped with all possible information about that candidate if you vote at the last possible moment.

00:09:44.960 That's why a campaigning is suspended on Election Day.

00:09:48.420 So there's no further campaigning on Election Day itself.

00:09:50.700 You campaign up to Election Day and then you stop and then Election Day, the decision is made.

00:09:54.500 So I agree that it's bad for that reason.

00:09:56.760 And it's bad also because I think it's just a further nail in the coffin of community life.

00:10:03.680 There's a Robert Putnam's holding a loan.

00:10:05.400 It's a further nail in community.

00:10:07.500 And community and trust are so important to sustaining democracy.

00:10:11.920 And it's a ritual and doing things together.

00:10:14.280 And it's a further thing that you're not doing together.

00:10:16.560 You're just paying.

00:10:17.480 So that's a further problem for democracy itself.

00:10:19.840 So, but also the problem, a further problem with it is that some of these, I don't know about your ones, but some of the ones in Britain are quite complicated to fill in.

00:10:28.600 My erstwhile colleague, Dr. James Thompson, calculated that you'd have to have at least average IQ to be able to correctly follow a postal ballot.

00:10:39.280 It's quite, you know, you could put it in this envelope and then sign this and put that in that envelope.

00:10:43.340 It's quite, I remember when I voted by post once in Britain, because you had to, it was, it was very complicated to work out what was going on.

00:10:52.520 And so I don't, I think that's bad, but also it is clearly open to fraud.

00:10:56.980 And there was an investigation in Britain after the 2004 election where the judge concluded that the standards of the 2004 election in northwest England, where it was an all postal ballot, he said it would have disgraced the banana republic.

00:11:11.980 Interesting.

00:11:12.460 And you had many, many cases of these votes going missing, of ballots being harvested by particular political parties and filled it, of pressure being able to put on people because you can go around people's houses and say, okay, you've got a postal ballot.

00:11:25.920 We know you've got one to ask and we'll take it in for you, you know.

00:11:29.600 And so it ceases to be a secret ballot.

00:11:32.720 Pressure can be exerted on people.

00:11:34.840 The ballots can be interfered with and changed.

00:11:37.180 They can't be observed in the same way that, nor because there's so many of them coming in at once, you've got these complicated system envelopes and whatever.

00:11:44.260 And so it's impossible to have observers there all the time, every stage of the process, observing everything.

00:11:49.120 Whereas with normal ballots, you can have observers at every stage if you want to.

00:11:52.520 So he showed, he showed many cases of this, of it being corrupt and of results in cases of council elections, I remember, being overturned on the basis that the level of corruption was demonstrated.

00:12:04.200 And so it means that the stench of corruption in a tight race said, okay, he won the popular vote, but it's very tight, Biden, I mean, but it's very tight in Pennsylvania, it's tight in the places that delivered him the electoral college vote.

00:12:19.900 The stench of corruption hangs over it.

00:12:22.680 Now, unfortunately, that's not really a good enough argument.

00:12:25.360 I don't know that they'll be able to go to the courts and say, okay, well, therefore we run it.

00:12:29.100 They won't.

00:12:29.500 They have to be able to prove that it would materially affect the result.

00:12:33.320 Yeah, that it would have affected the race as well for them to get a hearing in the Supreme Court.

00:12:37.920 Otherwise, it's not going to go anywhere.

00:12:39.740 I mean, look, a couple of things.

00:12:42.140 First off, I agree with the mail-in voting being bad.

00:12:47.720 Secondly, I also think that it clearly affected the election.

00:12:51.640 And without mail-in voting at this scale, Trump might very well have won.

00:12:55.060 I mentioned in my forecast that Trump got a 30% increase of votes in the Republican primary in New Hampshire in winter.

00:13:05.680 When was that?

00:13:06.140 February, March?

00:13:06.940 I can't remember.

00:13:07.560 So basically, in an election that clearly didn't matter, 130,000 New Hampshireites walked through the snow to vote for him.

00:13:16.560 And I was actually kind of, I didn't say this online, but I was kind of personally having doubts about my prediction of a Biden victory and a comfortable victory, which I predicted, which obviously the comfortable ass, the comfort was missing from the outcome.

00:13:34.340 Because I felt like I had underestimated just the religious fervor of Trump voters.

00:13:42.600 It just meant more to them than it did Biden voters.

00:13:47.300 Trump voters love Trump.

00:13:48.500 Biden voters simply hate Trump.

00:13:50.540 And, you know, I guess hate triumphed over love.

00:13:53.920 Hate wins once again.

00:13:55.560 But they had this major fervor.

00:13:58.820 And the other thing I'd point out is that there were people who were predicting this.

00:14:05.640 And there was a meme that was put out called the Red Mirage.

00:14:09.660 And I remember reading about it and kind of discounting it because I was saying, well, you know, everyone always said, you know, they everyone makes predictions about elections.

00:14:18.540 And then the election, the day of the election, they're all out the window and something weird happens.

00:14:22.680 But in fact, the Red Mirage occurred.

00:14:25.180 So in these states where some states, Michigan being one, Pennsylvania being another, where early votes, mail-in votes were counted after the day of votes, you had this weird situation where Trump had big leads.

00:14:44.220 And you can at least excuse him a little bit for saying that I won.

00:14:48.340 Look at this.

00:14:48.960 I was up by 15 points and there was 70 percent of the vote in and so on.

00:14:53.460 But those have to do with America itself, which has a 10th Amendment, which means that nothing that is or anything that's not just explicitly stated in the Constitution is given to the states.

00:15:07.100 Therefore, these kind of semi-sovereign entities, maybe that's saying a little bit much, but kind of sovereign entities called the states, determine the election.

00:15:18.220 I mean, there is an electoral college.

00:15:19.700 Everyone knows about that.

00:15:20.800 But also they run the voting system and voting systems are simply different in each state.

00:15:26.000 And even the process that we go through of when you count votes is different.

00:15:29.340 So we knew about Florida early.

00:15:31.740 The polls in Florida were very close, but Trump actually won it by a fairly sizable amount.

00:15:38.460 And then we still don't know what's happening in Arizona and Michigan and elsewhere.

00:15:43.420 And the red mirage occurred.

00:15:45.620 Trump was up in these places.

00:15:46.980 And then this slow recount of mail-in votes comes in and it goes down.

00:15:52.540 So I think that the fundamental cause of the level of angst and like MAGA coping is something else.

00:16:02.160 I don't think it's the election itself, but I can at least give them the benefit of the doubt to some level in the sense that this is weird and messy in the words of Joe Biden.

00:16:12.540 And I agree, there is a kind of taint of corruption that will always be there.

00:16:21.040 Now, I think the cause of that is actually deeper.

00:16:23.700 I think you probably agree.

00:16:24.960 The cause of that is this radical polarization that is occurring to the point that I don't think either side is going to accept the other side winning.

00:16:35.360 And even if we could just definitively scientifically prove that there was like, you know, fraud was at a level of 0.001% or something, and it's okay.

00:16:47.860 Even then we would be focusing on it.

00:16:50.140 It's like the Heisenberg principle.

00:16:52.080 Even if it was people on Earth, even if it was erstwhile Trump's people that we would expect to be sympathetic to Trump, like whatever they see as alt-right, then they would still, they would turn around and say, oh, well, Richard Spencer proved that and he must be a fed.

00:17:02.740 Yeah, exactly, exactly.

00:17:05.420 So, yeah, I mean, for example, one of the things that they said was there were some areas, I forget where, some districts, some, what do you call them, precincts, where the turnout black areas was very, very high, like 85%, 90%.

00:17:17.120 Yeah.

00:17:17.480 And they were almost all for Biden.

00:17:19.740 Well, you shouldn't be surprised by that, actually, because they're overwhelmingly going to vote for Biden anyway.

00:17:25.940 And you put them in a situation where voting is incredibly easy.

00:17:29.240 It's really, really easy in the way that it didn't used to be.

00:17:33.660 You've just got to go to the end of the street.

00:17:36.500 So, have you even got to do that?

00:17:38.560 So, it's...

00:17:39.960 Someone will help you out with it.

00:17:41.300 Someone will help you out.

00:17:42.160 Yeah, there'll be people you can ring up and they'll take it, they'll do it for you.

00:17:44.960 So, it's not actually as shocking as it seems when you take that into account.

00:17:49.680 It's the postal votes.

00:17:51.820 America always talks about, oh, it's terrible that you have a low turnout.

00:17:55.120 Well, what having a low turnout means is that only the people that are really politically engaged and care bother to vote.

00:18:02.440 And the other half of the country don't vote.

00:18:04.780 And when you get an elevated vote, it's either because someone like Trump, some populist, or Brexit or whatever, has inspired people that don't normally vote to vote.

00:18:14.500 Or, if you bring in postal voting, you just get people that lack of basic and don't really care.

00:18:20.140 They don't care.

00:18:20.760 They don't care.

00:18:21.200 It's just, oh, whatever, I'll do it.

00:18:22.920 I'll vote for whoever.

00:18:23.560 So, that's what happened, I'm afraid.

00:18:26.240 The impression I get is that, if I was in their position, you would presumably hold your cards quite close to your chest.

00:18:34.080 You wouldn't publicly, they keep saying in the news, though, without any evidence.

00:18:37.440 But you would surely wait in presenting your evidence until you were in front of the courts.

00:18:41.380 Of course, yeah.

00:18:42.000 Which supposedly is going to be happening next week.

00:18:44.240 But I would be interested to see what they're going to try and say, because they would have to demonstrate industrial scale electoral fraud in hundreds of thousands of invalidated votes.

00:18:56.920 Yes, I think a lot of, I mean, there have been at least plausible explanations for some of these things.

00:19:04.320 There's, you know, the line, the Biden snake, where he jumps up 138,000 votes.

00:19:10.860 There have at least been plausible explanations for this.

00:19:14.240 I mean, look, I'll just admit, yes, there is some level of fraud in any election system, and particularly in big cities.

00:19:22.400 I mean, my mother grew up in Louisiana.

00:19:25.560 I mean, she's less cynical now, but she said growing up, her level of cynicism about democratic elections was just off the chart.

00:19:35.320 Like, they would just, they said, like, they're all corrupt.

00:19:38.940 Like, they all stuffed the ballot box.

00:19:41.000 Like, but the point is, we kind of like this one, you know?

00:19:44.280 It was just like a base level of cynicism, very high.

00:19:47.500 Chicago is world famous.

00:19:49.640 There were major election fraud, actually, in the election of 1960, that might very well have flipped it towards Kennedy as opposed to Nixon in 1960.

00:20:00.060 And that's just clear.

00:20:02.380 I mean, that is real.

00:20:03.520 So there is a level of fraud there.

00:20:07.240 But, again, the level that we have now, I think, you know, we can look into it, sure.

00:20:14.160 But I think it's coming from this radical polarization of not accepting the other side.

00:20:20.800 I mean, the other side is evil in a world of radical polarization.

00:20:26.040 The other side wants to round you up and throw you into a gulag.

00:20:29.920 It literally does, though.

00:20:31.120 I mean, it's not that it's not a, it's not paranoid.

00:20:33.020 You've got people like this AOC woman who have actually said, OK, we should, we want to make a list of anyone that's ever worked with or cooperated with the Trump administration in any way.

00:20:45.540 And in short, when someone respond to that tweet, yeah, we've got this list and we're going to make sure that they can never get a faculty position, that they can never get a job doing, that they can never work for the state, never work for the government in any capacity ever again.

00:20:57.180 So it's not actually that paranoid that they would.

00:21:00.360 I agree.

00:21:01.580 There is a lot of vindictiveness.

00:21:03.420 I mean, look, I have faced this, you know, a hundredfold.

00:21:07.360 I mean, it's real.

00:21:08.700 Yes.

00:21:09.000 But I'm but it's it's not necessarily real for your average Trump fan living in Ohio.

00:21:16.740 And he seems to believe that, too.

00:21:18.840 Like, he's not going to be rounded up and put into a gulag.

00:21:21.700 Yet he believes that.

00:21:24.160 And and the left believes that I mean, Marianne Williamson was tweeting before the election, like if Trump wins, you know, I was telling my daughter she might have to come visit me in a cell and all this kind of stuff.

00:21:34.880 I mean, it's just I mean, it is nonsensical and Trump clearly he's not a good fascist in this regard.

00:21:43.700 He's he wouldn't actually do these things.

00:21:46.700 They just say he's going to do them.

00:21:48.200 But regardless, just polarization is so intense and QAnon is a kind of tip of the spear.

00:21:55.380 It is an intense expression of the level of paranoia and and and hatred and religious fervor that both sides actually have.

00:22:08.500 And so I don't think any election would work this way.

00:22:11.520 We were still polarized to a large degree in 2000.

00:22:14.280 I mean, a lot of this is reminding me of the 2000 election.

00:22:16.680 And I just recently this morning was watching Al Gore's concession speech and he he said, I mean, he got some jabs in.

00:22:24.960 I mean, he said, I strongly disagree with the Supreme Court's ruling.

00:22:29.720 Just as a reminder, at that point, Florida was extremely tight.

00:22:34.480 It's it's just it's been tight for 20 years.

00:22:36.420 It never changes.

00:22:37.380 It was extremely close.

00:22:38.580 You actually had a very similar situation with the Cuban vote going for the Republicans on the basis of this.

00:22:44.400 I think it was Ilya.

00:22:46.360 What's who was it?

00:22:47.560 There was this Cuban refugee who was sent back to Cuba.

00:22:53.180 And that actually the Republicans kind of were in favor of him staying.

00:22:58.160 I mean, it's kind of weird when you think of an immigration, their favorite mistake. 1.00

00:23:01.120 There was a huge wave of a Cuban vote in favor of Republicans.

00:23:04.860 The vote was extremely tight, although it appears statewide that that Al Gore might have had the edge, although it's slight.

00:23:13.480 But anyway, the Supreme Court argued this will do irreparable harm to the country.

00:23:18.620 The people descending said that this was a violation of equal protection clause.

00:23:25.320 Whatever.

00:23:26.400 It's, you know, legalese.

00:23:28.180 But Trump, the recount was stopped.

00:23:30.740 And George W. Bush was given Florida and therefore given the election.

00:23:35.300 That it was stopped.

00:23:37.240 That it will do irreparable harm to the country.

00:23:39.480 So what?

00:23:39.900 The point they should want to know who won Florida.

00:23:42.920 And I thought it was amazing.

00:23:44.480 Because you're disagreeing with Antonin Scalia.

00:23:46.600 I mean, he.

00:23:47.940 Amazingly gallant and magnanimous of Al Gore and sort of southern gentleman type.

00:23:53.840 It was.

00:23:54.300 To, as it were, put the unity of the country before the fact that, as far as I can see, he won that election.

00:24:00.780 And he should have.

00:24:01.420 I think he did.

00:24:02.760 It was extremely tight, though.

00:24:05.080 But he said he got some jabs in.

00:24:06.840 He said, I totally disagree with this.

00:24:09.320 But he also was a southern gentleman.

00:24:12.320 And he said things like, we are one people with a common history and a common destiny.

00:24:17.220 And this, he was making these, we're all American like arguments.

00:24:22.820 And Biden was making a lot of these as well in his speech.

00:24:25.820 He was saying, you know, we're all Americans.

00:24:27.860 We need to lower the temperature and so on.

00:24:29.800 And that's all fine and good.

00:24:31.700 I mean, I, on a basic level, I agree with him.

00:24:34.400 I don't want just intense hatred all the time and silliness and coping.

00:24:40.600 But it just ain't going to happen.

00:24:42.820 We are in a different place now.

00:24:48.000 He's up against a candidate.

00:24:49.120 Yes, 20 years later, it's 20 years more of coming apart.

00:24:52.400 And he's up against a candidate who is certainly not a southern gentleman.

00:24:57.100 And who is not going to take this.

00:24:59.460 And if there is the slightest possibility that he can overturn or even just undermine confidence in the result, then he's clearly going to do so.

00:25:07.740 And I find it amazing that somebody can be that powerful and get into positions of influence like that.

00:25:14.860 And this is just a childish act of pique.

00:25:18.260 I can only assume he must have people seriously advising him, saying, you know, look, this is the strategy we're going to take.

00:25:25.700 And this is what we're going to try to achieve.

00:25:27.540 And it might not be, you know, you might be, yeah, we have to accept that you've lost.

00:25:30.160 This is this is our strategy and this is what we're going to do.

00:25:33.040 And we expect it to have these outcomes.

00:25:35.780 And so go go and play golf.

00:25:38.500 You know, I don't I don't I don't I don't think it's just I can't believe it's just him stomping around.

00:25:43.560 He must be there must be people that he seriously takes the advice of that know what they're doing.

00:25:47.820 Well, reportedly, to take it with a grain of salt, Jared Kushner is telling him to concede.

00:25:58.480 Now, also, and I don't want to get to, you know, you know what on this, but I thought it was quite telling that Bibi Netanyahu recognized Joe Biden as the president.

00:26:10.820 That was that that actually was a kind of serious act.

00:26:14.280 It is amazing that even the big Trump fans kind of assume that those two people are in it so that, you know, either Trump's, you know, friends with with Netanyahu, Netanyahu is controlling him or something like that.

00:26:28.640 But it's it's Netanyahu has acknowledged Joe Biden's victory.

00:26:34.720 Trump did a tremendous amount for him.

00:26:38.260 But I mean, understandably, Netanyahu is not going to die in this hill.

00:26:42.560 And so that was a major thing.

00:26:47.540 And I think that Trump actually will he I think looking at his character, I think he's going to try to play it both ways, which is what he'll always do.

00:26:57.820 So he's going to undermine his rabid fans by conceding in the next few days.

00:27:02.920 This is just my sense.

00:27:04.740 I might be wrong, been wrong before.

00:27:07.080 He's going to undermine his most rabid fans by conceding, but he's also going to leave it ambiguous so that they will still support him and there'll be this stench in the air.

00:27:19.500 You know, a different type of president or a different.

00:27:22.880 Yeah, a different type of candidate would have been like, no, the voting's fine.

00:27:26.580 We're all in this together.

00:27:27.540 We're one America.

00:27:28.220 We're going forward.

00:27:29.160 And he would be applauded for his patriotism.

00:27:31.840 Trump's obviously not going to do that.

00:27:33.620 So he's going to concede, but leave the stench in the air, much like Hillary Clinton did.

00:27:39.660 I mean, Hillary Clinton conceded, but she didn't exactly dampen, you know, Russian conspiracy fears. 0.76

00:27:48.040 She was likely behind the scenes kind of pushing these.

00:27:52.340 And these ultimately, through a lot of twists and turns, led to the impeachment of Donald Trump.

00:27:57.980 So I think Donald Trump is going to concede, but kind of keep that in the air.

00:28:02.620 The MAGA diehards are going to die hard.

00:28:05.440 They are not going to let this go.

00:28:07.960 They will not treat Biden as legitimate at all.

00:28:11.600 And it's going to kind of just get in this vicious cycle of rancor that will last indefinitely.

00:28:18.180 And so MAGA is not dead.

00:28:19.880 I mean, this is kind of the, I guess, you know, often with the McLaughlin group, they'll ask exit questions.

00:28:25.200 I mean, do you think that Trump is going to go off into the sunset?

00:28:31.140 Do you think he'll run in 2024?

00:28:33.180 Do you think MAGA will be going in 2024?

00:28:37.780 Me?

00:28:38.260 No.

00:28:39.120 No.

00:28:40.020 I'm surprised he ran again.

00:28:42.760 I mean, it's a thing that he did.

00:28:46.160 It was a thing of its time.

00:28:47.420 It was a thing of 2016.

00:28:49.400 And it works and whatever.

00:28:51.440 And I'd be very surprised if he ran again.

00:28:54.320 Although he won't want to remove himself from the scene.

00:28:57.940 No.

00:28:59.140 Once someone has been intoxicated with power, they can never easily abandon it.

00:29:03.380 Yes.

00:29:03.860 And that was true of Margaret Thatcher. 0.99

00:29:05.620 And it's going to be true of him.

00:29:07.460 And so he'll have to find out.

00:29:08.660 And one of the things he's always saying is, I got the most votes ever of any presidential, you know, losing candidate, basically.

00:29:16.540 He wouldn't say that.

00:29:17.860 He did.

00:29:18.580 He got the most votes ever.

00:29:19.600 Except for the other one.

00:29:20.480 Except for, of course, not Biden.

00:29:22.140 That was considerably more votes.

00:29:23.840 So I think that he, there must be some, I think we could expect some skullduggery.

00:29:29.380 Whether he'll concede, it would be so out of character for him to accept weakness. 0.99

00:29:34.320 I suppose he did it when there was the scandal over the grabbed him by the pussy thing. 0.99

00:29:38.500 Then he publicly apologised. 0.99

00:29:41.140 And so he was prepared to, that was kind of a public confession of weakness there.

00:29:45.240 Yeah.

00:29:45.380 He was young, immature, 59-year-old.

00:29:47.640 And he made some inappropriate remarks that he wouldn't make powers a 70-year-old or a 69-year-old.

00:29:57.580 So mature since then.

00:29:59.520 But I'm just, I'm very interested to know what's going to happen.

00:30:03.300 And I was quite pleased that I was, I stayed, I sort of got up early in the morning on the, on the day.

00:30:07.920 I watched the, thinking it wasn't, I was there watching when they finally declared that Biden had won.

00:30:15.100 Yeah.

00:30:15.500 And I think, I did it, it's impossible to, I just think it's impossible to predict what's going to happen.

00:30:21.880 But what he'll do, could they drag him kicking and screaming from the White House?

00:30:26.640 Could he refuse to do it?

00:30:27.360 Well, that was a meme that was out there.

00:30:29.200 That was a reported meme.

00:30:30.600 They're going to have to drive me kicking and screaming.

00:30:32.160 And you and I, when we went on a, kind of like hastily went on a podcast with Keith Woods at the last minute, I was kind of suggested that great schism type thing where Trump, it just remains the shadow president.

00:30:49.020 And he's not in control of the bureaucracy or the military, but he just kind of doesn't ever concede.

00:30:55.460 And there's just this, we, the polarization becomes so intense, it doesn't quite lead to actual civil war, but it leads to just parallel states of mind where Trump is still tweeting as if he's the president.

00:31:08.420 He, he visits some foreign countries and, you know, like, you know, Bolsonaro or in Eastern Europe, and they accept him as the president.

00:31:15.920 He acts kind of like the president.

00:31:18.240 And it's just this bizarre realm where we've just, polarization is so intense, we've just like separated into two minutes.

00:31:25.460 Mental states that we don't communicate with each other.

00:31:28.300 I can see that.

00:31:29.020 I mean, possible.

00:31:30.080 I don't think it's going to happen, but possible.

00:31:31.680 Very possible.

00:31:32.540 The media, that's just propaganda, of course, is now making out that, okay, everyone's accepted it and everyone's happy.

00:31:38.480 And, you know, we can stop social distancing and men can click each other in the street to show how happy we are about this and all this.

00:31:46.540 And it's all a happy world.

00:31:48.460 And, you know, Biden is going to, Biden is going to reunite the nation and whatever.

00:31:54.060 And suddenly it's completely forgotten that he's senile, he's, he's pre-senile, he's got serious problems and whatever.

00:32:03.200 So there must be things behind the scene.

00:32:06.980 What the media are presenting to me, what's happening, which is now, look, America's pleased, is obviously not true.

00:32:12.220 And there must be, think of how they suppressed the Hunter Biden story.

00:32:15.680 Think of how they have done all these other things.

00:32:17.380 So there must be something going on behind the scenes that I'm not perceiving by watching the Sky News or whatever, would be more noticeable in America or would be more noticeable on the ground.

00:32:29.200 But I just would be, it would be satisfying that he would not give up.

00:32:33.520 It would be in his character to not give up.

00:32:35.220 And I want him, even though, to just go out in a blaze of, a blaze of, a blaze of infantile pique and fury, I think.

00:32:42.140 Well, all, all, I think Enoch Powell said all, all political careers end unhappily.

00:32:47.960 You know, you, you live long enough to become the villain, so to speak.

00:32:51.760 I mean, it's just, it is kind of a thing that happens.

00:32:56.020 And we, we have this nostalgia for past presidents.

00:32:58.800 Even George W. Bush, who was very unpopular in his second term and, and was, by at least my standards, was a disaster as a president.

00:33:09.120 There's even been a kind of renewed nostalgia for him.

00:33:12.560 There's certainly a nostalgia for Obama, even though he lived in an age of polarization.

00:33:16.240 Um, but I, I don't know.

00:33:19.000 I mean, it's, I think we're kind of past a point of no return, like, or, or, or past a, like, singularity or something with Trump.

00:33:25.460 I mean, I, I don't know if that will ever grow, at least on a, on a national level.

00:33:31.160 You know, all these other, as I pointed out in my forecast, all these other presidents achieved very high approval ratings during a crisis.

00:33:39.280 You know, George W. Bush got up to 90% or 91, I think, even approval rating right at the, in the midst of 9-11.

00:33:48.040 And then it started to go down just gradually, slowly, but surely to very low approval ratings in a second term.

00:33:54.880 All, you know, LBJ won in a monumental landslide in 1964.

00:33:59.560 Um, George, uh, George Bush, uh, George W. Bush's father got up to 90 during the Gulf War.

00:34:04.640 Or all these, all these, you know, um, Clinton kind of survived impeachment and went out, uh, with a buzzing economy and a stock market going through the roof and all this kind of stuff.

00:34:14.860 Um, Trump has never existed outside of polarization.

00:34:19.420 And, and the, the idea that he'll be looked back on.

00:34:23.600 Also, also, it's almost impossible.

00:34:26.900 One of the ways you can unite a country is by going to war.

00:34:29.280 And that's what all of them did, all of his predecessors, to some extent, uh, did about Obama, but then he, but, uh, otherwise they all went to war.

00:34:38.520 Not Obama, actually.

00:34:39.160 Obama was kind of like empire in decline. 0.99

00:34:41.600 He, he did these small world wars, which I absolutely opposed and which were stupid, like in Libya and so on. 0.88

00:34:47.800 Um, but in 2014, he didn't really have the guts to go into Syria and punted. 0.85

00:34:53.160 And it was just kind of like a declining U.S. empire that wasn't really sure of itself.

00:34:58.960 And Trump is like that too.

00:35:01.360 Um, Trump is very similar to Obama in his foreign policy in a kind of weird way.

00:35:06.060 Um, but so that, that at least leads me to believe that hot wars are on the decline, at least in the foreseeable future.

00:35:14.760 But yeah, I mean, is the possibility out there that in the next month or so we get into a fight with Iran and it may be kind, I mean, it would create a lot of rancor, but might secure a certain base that's in the cards. 0.99

00:35:32.600 I mean, I could see that I don't, not predicting that, but that's very possible.

00:35:38.300 What I like as well is the way that they try and portray Kamala Harris as the first, you know, part African-American.

00:35:46.400 I'm like, she's not, she said, someone said she's the first biracial president or vice, or maybe they said the first biracial vice president.

00:35:55.000 Okay.

00:35:55.560 But like, so Obama was black?

00:35:57.840 I mean, Obama was black.

00:35:58.160 Well, no, no, what's interesting though is you, you never, you, they've never had an African-American.

00:36:01.060 She's kind of as white as I am in terms of mores and social signaling. 0.74

00:36:05.560 They've never had an African-American in the executive.

00:36:08.100 No, they haven't.

00:36:09.380 Because they haven't, because Obama wasn't half African-American, half Kenyan, half Kenyan, upper class.

00:36:15.300 Intelligence correlates with migration, upper class correlates with migration.

00:36:20.580 He was the descendant of slave traders. 0.89

00:36:24.280 And then she, half sort of Jamaican, I don't know, Jamaican sort of middle class. 0.99

00:36:31.740 Again, intelligence correlates with migration.

00:36:34.440 So it's nothing to do with being African-American.

00:36:36.260 There has never been an African-American in such a senior position.

00:36:39.040 And I doubt, I sincerely doubt.

00:36:42.040 No, no, it's just, yeah, it's, it's, it's really bizarre, but okay.

00:36:47.080 So let's look at what happened and the dynamics of the vote.

00:36:53.380 So I, as you know, have a hobby horse called Wegzit.

00:37:00.480 And I've seen a few, a little more people using this term.

00:37:05.220 You don't have to use the term.

00:37:06.360 It's not a big deal.

00:37:08.280 But it is basically a, a trend that is in the near term granted, but is significant.

00:37:16.240 And this is that whites, particularly, but not all, um, middle to upper middle class suburban

00:37:26.420 whites are leaving the Republicans and going to the Democratic Party.

00:37:31.660 So this is a long-term trend and you could see it in, um, even voting patterns over the

00:37:39.300 past 10 years.

00:37:40.460 So in 2010, with the so-called Tea Party election, uh, Republicans got around 65% of the sheriff

00:37:49.860 whites and they took back the house.

00:37:52.280 They had a parade, et cetera, et cetera.

00:37:55.500 And they did extremely well.

00:37:57.800 It, one would think, you know, being the age that we are around 40, that all upper class suburban

00:38:04.260 whites would be Republican.

00:38:06.320 That's their natural party.

00:38:07.960 It's the party of wealth and privilege and say, you know, the status quo and personal

00:38:14.940 ambition and all that kind of stuff.

00:38:17.080 At least it has been for decades, but they are leaving.

00:38:21.880 So Mitt Romney won basically a fewer whites and a lower percentage of whites.

00:38:28.420 Excuse me, let me go back.

00:38:29.800 Donald Trump won fewer whites and a lower percentage of whites than Mitt Romney did in 2016.

00:38:36.320 So all of this talk of Donald Trump as the white nationalist candidate, I get why they

00:38:44.720 say that, but it's kind of empirically incorrect.

00:38:50.320 So Mitt Romney won 59% of the white vote and still was not able to defeat Barack Obama.

00:38:57.140 Uh, Donald Trump won 58% of the white vote.

00:39:00.200 The key issue is that he won different whites.

00:39:03.640 So whites who were either apathetic, i.e.

00:39:06.700 didn't vote or voted for Obama in 2008 and or 2012.

00:39:11.840 Millions of them came over to Donald Trump and he won a miraculous election in 2016 by winning

00:39:19.180 different white people.

00:39:20.820 And there's also a long-term trend of whites, what we could call blue-collar whites, and

00:39:27.300 that's measured in terms of not having a college degree.

00:39:30.440 And that actually, I think that actually is a very good measure because sometimes your

00:39:35.840 actual income or wealth doesn't describe your class.

00:39:40.240 You know, class is something, particularly now, it is something a little bit separate from

00:39:44.220 wealth.

00:39:44.580 So someone who's not making a lot of money and working in an internship, but has a degree

00:39:50.520 from Yale and is a woke leftist, they are kind of of a different class than someone who's

00:39:56.220 making $70,000 a year while working as a plumber.

00:39:59.760 So it just is what it is.

00:40:01.520 But whites without college degrees used to vote, 70% of them used to vote for Democrats.

00:40:07.300 Democrats, it's the good old boy party. 0.97

00:40:09.080 It's the party of Southern segregation.

00:40:11.280 It's the party, you know, Midwestern unionists.

00:40:13.820 It's that party.

00:40:15.880 By 2016, that had flipped totally, where 70% of those whites were voting for Donald Trump.

00:40:24.340 So that was a long-term trend.

00:40:26.100 There's also this long-term trend of upper middle class whites, or a short-term trend

00:40:30.960 of upper middle class whites leaving the Republican Party and going to the Democrats.

00:40:36.040 And what did we see?

00:40:39.000 I'll share my screen.

00:40:40.300 This is a good analysis by the Brookings Institute, by William Fry is, I believe, his name.

00:40:49.820 So we can just look right here.

00:40:52.260 This is figure one.

00:40:54.620 There is a 5%.

00:40:56.520 I've been promoting the 5% meme, so of others.

00:41:00.160 It's real.

00:41:01.540 There is a 5%.

00:41:02.580 So this is Democratic minus Republican vote margins by racial category.

00:41:07.580 There is just a 5% change in voting patterns among whites in general, and particularly white men.

00:41:18.780 So mail-in ballots might have actually helped Donald Trump a little bit, because he did really well among black women. 1.00

00:41:26.440 He doubled his support among black ladies.

00:41:30.000 Remarkable.

00:41:30.520 We should tell AOC this, because I actually read an interview she did with the New York Times this morning,

00:41:34.900 in which she was saying she's really concerned about the white vote.

00:41:38.000 Apparently, whites are still voting for Donald Trump.

00:41:40.440 Well, actually, a lot fewer whites are voting for Donald Trump in 2020, and you need to talk to black ladies, 1.00

00:41:46.760 because they are supporting white supremacy, apparently, according to your own terms, AOC.

00:41:52.600 So there is a major change in the white vote.

00:41:56.280 And if we scroll down, it's actually pretty dramatic when you look at men with no college.

00:42:04.400 So here we go.

00:42:06.980 Men with college grads in 2016, basically, this is, so again, this is figure two.

00:42:13.460 This is Democratic minus Republican vote.

00:42:15.760 So basically, men who were college grads were going to the Democrats by 14% over going to the Republicans.

00:42:24.900 This is really changing now in 2020.

00:42:31.020 So basically, you had men, no college, blue-collar college whites went down for the Democrats, according to exit polls.

00:42:40.400 These are CNN exit polls, by 11%.

00:42:43.100 So that is a major shift, huge, because the Republican Party, everyone's talking about this, you know, Tucker, Josh Hawley.

00:42:53.560 The Republican Party...

00:42:54.540 This is 2016.

00:42:56.960 2016 versus 2020.

00:42:58.220 Yeah, and it's less bad now for the Democrats.

00:43:01.980 It's...

00:43:02.540 A lot, significantly less bad, yes.

00:43:05.820 So they are actually, whites are now plus two, white men with college degrees are now plus two voting for Democrats.

00:43:15.800 And previously, they were minus 14.

00:43:18.380 And that's not, I mean, again, if we use stereotypes...

00:43:21.220 If you look at Charles Murray's book, Coming Apart, of course, he looks at this way in which you've had this split that's occurred among the, well, among all classes, but certainly among the middle, whatever, what should we call it in America?

00:43:34.620 It's funny, these terms they use.

00:43:35.860 Let's say the upper middle class or the upper class, whatever term you would use, whereby it was traditionally that the working class and the upper class all have pretty much the same kind of way of seeing the world, the same values, the same fundamental values in a lot of ways.

00:43:48.620 But it was just that the rich, the poor, and the people in the middle.

00:43:52.440 Whereas what you've had since the 60s is this divergence, whereby you've had this wokeness, this wokification of the middle class, particularly, so that they don't any longer do the same things that the working class do. 0.65

00:44:05.600 They don't have the same values.

00:44:06.760 You have some of them that do, the ones that are the more Republican types, the more traditional types, more religious types, probably.

00:44:14.120 But then you have those which deviate from it increasingly, and that's what we're seeing, this splitting apart, this coming apart.

00:44:19.660 And what you might also expect would be that social climbers who were working class might begin to imitate what was perceived as the winning team.

00:44:27.680 Right.

00:44:29.360 Or also Biden himself.

00:44:31.600 I mean, look, Biden was associated with BLM and the riots, and that clearly did not help him. 0.79

00:44:38.760 But at the same time, Biden is a old white guy.

00:44:43.480 His senility, as I've told you, is a feature, not a bug.

00:44:47.360 And he just seems normal and guileless and fun.

00:44:52.200 And he doesn't look like he hates you.

00:44:54.660 So I think Biden himself personally might have affected this.

00:44:59.760 But again, this show is coming together kind of ironically.

00:45:03.880 But then I'll go back to major states down here.

00:45:08.640 So also Gen X shifted pretty.

00:45:12.040 I mean, if we assume that this is vaguely Gen X, Gen X basically changed the election.

00:45:18.880 Go Gen X, my generation, black leather jackets, depression, conspiracy theories.

00:45:24.380 It's negativity.

00:45:25.260 That's who we are.

00:45:26.420 We listen to you, too.

00:45:27.700 Okay.

00:45:29.380 Democrat minus.

00:45:30.480 Now, this is, again, this way that he's calculating it, which I think is good, which is Democrat minus Republican vote margins.

00:45:39.320 So this is figure four.

00:45:40.740 However, this had a huge effect in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

00:45:48.380 So over here on this, these two columns right here.

00:45:51.660 So the gray column is 2016.

00:45:53.620 The orange column is 2020.

00:45:56.060 These are this fight.

00:45:57.580 This one to the far right here is white men, no college.

00:46:01.140 Again, you see a in Michigan, you see a 14 percent shift.

00:46:07.280 So that among white men without a college degree, blue collar, if you want to call them, 14 percent shift towards the Democrats.

00:46:15.600 Now, they're still voting for the Republicans on margin.

00:46:19.580 But the other thing to think about is does that mean they're changing their mind or does that mean they've just got lazy chaps who are blue collar workers who wouldn't normally vote? 0.99

00:46:32.120 Now, it's a cinch to vote.

00:46:33.520 So they vote.

00:46:33.940 That's a fair point.

00:46:35.800 I mean, I don't know exactly.

00:46:38.140 Militate against the hypothesis of polarization.

00:46:41.320 It's just that this is uniquely an election in which it's been incredibly easy to vote.

00:46:47.420 And so people that really couldn't care less and who perhaps not very bright either because intelligence predicts voting, who aren't very bright and therefore might even think, oh, well, I'm working class.

00:46:58.160 I should vote Democrat.

00:46:59.000 Like that behind the times.

00:47:01.120 Yes.

00:47:01.700 That they would do so.

00:47:04.120 I mean, even I were 20 years ago, the full change, this idea that you're a Southerner and therefore you must never vote Republican ever, ever.

00:47:14.400 Right.

00:47:14.600 That still holds with some people, some particularly traditional people.

00:47:18.920 They still take that view. 0.98

00:47:20.260 My grandpappy said Republicans are the worst people ever.

00:47:23.720 And I vote Democrat, even though it's diametrically opposed to everything they believe in.

00:47:28.120 Right.

00:47:28.560 I think you might have things like that going on.

00:47:30.860 I don't doubt.

00:47:31.880 Look, I fully admit that mail-in voting affected this election tremendously.

00:47:38.920 And the other thing, once you get something going, it's hard to end it.

00:47:42.660 So you created a new trend using the excuse, justifiable somewhat, of COVID.

00:47:50.120 And now you create new behavior among people.

00:47:53.660 So now they said, oh, yeah, I voted by mail last time.

00:47:57.160 I'm going to do it again.

00:47:57.860 It was so much easier.

00:47:58.560 You created a new behavior, and that might also really fundamentally change elections.

00:48:03.660 I agree.

00:48:04.800 But I don't want to discount a couple of things.

00:48:09.980 The first one being that I personally decided the fate of the world by my voting for Joe Biden.

00:48:15.860 Just kidding.

00:48:19.160 Joke.

00:48:19.740 Joke.

00:48:20.360 But it is real.

00:48:22.780 Like, at the end of his campaign, Trump offered a platinum plan for African Americans.

00:48:29.820 He promised some other American dream plan or something to Hispanics. 0.98

00:48:34.680 The wall is kind of, sort of taking shape.

00:48:38.160 No real immigration reform has been done.

00:48:40.080 He didn't offer stimulus checks en masse.

00:48:44.080 He did once.

00:48:44.860 There was one for a thousand bucks or whatever.

00:48:47.040 He didn't really take care of people.

00:48:49.600 He didn't talk about a lot of these populist issues at his rallies.

00:48:54.440 He bragged about, you know, lowest black unemployment.

00:48:58.280 I mean, at some point, he did not deliver.

00:49:01.960 And no, I don't think it's all a bunch of Richard Spencerites who changed the election.

00:49:08.160 I was joking.

00:49:09.500 But there actually are some of those people.

00:49:12.700 And we shouldn't just dismiss that.

00:49:14.760 There's a significant amount of people who made the exact same calculation that I did. 0.98

00:49:19.900 That Trump is a fake politician. 0.59

00:49:23.300 It's fake populism. 0.88

00:49:25.180 And I've had enough of it.

00:49:26.880 He lies. 0.99

00:49:28.080 He's a con man. 1.00

00:49:29.240 It's bullshit. 1.00

00:49:30.260 That actually is. 1.00

00:49:31.300 There are a number of people like that.

00:49:33.700 Trump won Michigan by 10,000 votes last time.

00:49:37.160 10,000 people might very well think like this.

00:49:40.560 I do not dismiss that.

00:49:42.000 I also don't dismiss macro trends that you were talking about.

00:49:47.340 But the fact is, Trump gained among every single group through mail-in election.

00:49:55.620 Trump gained among every single group, including white women. 0.62

00:50:00.120 He did not gain among white men.

00:50:03.500 There is a 5% gap in terms of percentages.

00:50:06.880 It just is what it is.

00:50:10.580 And I'm sorry I'm kind of getting on my high horse here.

00:50:13.820 But all of these Trump fans who just want to just slam, oh, no, that doesn't matter.

00:50:19.240 It doesn't mean anything.

00:50:20.280 It is what it is.

00:50:23.620 It is real.

00:50:25.000 Stop denying the fact that white men determined this election.

00:50:31.120 We did.

00:50:31.720 And take exit polls with a grain of salt.

00:50:36.640 Fair enough.

00:50:37.540 But, like, the trends are pointing in one direction. 0.91

00:50:41.880 White men cause this. 0.98

00:50:44.180 What would be consistent with that?

00:50:45.840 It would be two things, then.

00:50:47.680 One would be that men are less likely to vote than women. 0.93

00:50:52.720 Right.

00:50:53.200 White men, therefore, you've got an elevated working class people are less likely to vote than middle class people. 0.50

00:50:57.980 So you end up with more white people voting, or white men voting, and those people are likely to be less fervent, and therefore they're more likely to vote for a status quo Democrat candidate.

00:51:08.680 And the other possibility, or related possibility, is that these kinds of white men see that Joe is a bit like them.

00:51:15.320 Yeah.

00:51:16.260 Uncle Joe is not seemingly, no, I'm sure he's very intelligent, but seemingly not particularly intelligent. 0.98

00:51:22.100 He's, you know, doggy old bugger with the embarrassing son, and reminds them of their own family. 0.99

00:51:30.880 Reminds them of their own family. 1.00

00:51:32.660 Whereas Trump is just this wealthy, conceited man. 0.86

00:51:38.380 And he's conning them. 0.59

00:51:40.200 He didn't.

00:51:40.920 Like, Trump said that coal mining was going to come back.

00:51:44.900 Trump told people at rallies, don't sell your house.

00:51:47.840 Don't get a new profession.

00:51:49.320 We're bringing it all back.

00:51:50.640 Trump made promises in Wisconsin about a new Foxconn facility that was going to, we're going to just reinvent manufacturing.

00:51:59.200 That was a joke.

00:52:00.760 They built a bunch of stuff.

00:52:02.360 They poured millions into it.

00:52:03.760 It's not doing anything.

00:52:06.240 And maybe it's too much to ask for Trump just to revolutionize everything in three and a half years or whatever.

00:52:12.880 But, okay, but still, he just didn't deliver on any of this stuff.

00:52:20.840 And at some point, you just view him as a bad joke, and you just want to move on.

00:52:29.120 And, you know, he's just like the other Republicans who wanted Detroit to go bankrupt, and I would lose my job.

00:52:36.260 He's just like Mitt Romney, basically.

00:52:38.340 And they just go back to the fold.

00:52:40.860 And this is what happened.

00:52:43.720 I mean, the states, the key states, at least now, the key states that Biden flipped are, you know, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

00:52:51.520 We'll see about Arizona.

00:52:52.940 And Georgia is also just a huge state.

00:52:56.120 Even if Trump does win, which is possible, the fact that that is a swing state in the Deep South and so on demonstrates tremendous demographic shift, i.e. whites moving to Democrats.

00:53:12.200 Yeah.

00:53:13.180 So, all I don't know, all I can say is the end of the world has been prognosticated, and I'm waiting for it to occur.

00:53:23.220 But it doesn't seem to be occurring.

00:53:26.460 But what he could have done, the things he could have done, like reacted to the big tech problems and all this kind of stuff, he didn't do.

00:53:33.600 It was a wasted opportunity.

00:53:36.260 And he's now just getting owned.

00:53:38.100 You know, every other tweet is said, you know, this is election, you know, this is a false claim about the election.

00:53:45.000 I mean, they're just owning him now.

00:53:47.080 And you can't, I mean, I think with, this is maybe a discussion for another day.

00:53:52.280 But you, it's funny when he owns journalists, because yes, journalists are all a bunch of liberals.

00:53:58.320 I mean, of course they are.

00:53:59.580 But at some point, they're going to own you back.

00:54:02.880 You can't just endlessly try to delegitimize them and get your followers to just say they're all fake news. 0.99

00:54:10.360 They're absolute liars. 0.95

00:54:11.840 They're tricking you. 1.00

00:54:13.000 They're horrible people. 0.99

00:54:14.280 If you do that enough, they're going to punch back.

00:54:19.600 And it's just kind of like, you either need to find a solution.

00:54:24.880 Humiliating punch back though, wasn't it?

00:54:26.740 For a sitting president to come out and do a speech and for them to cut him off.

00:54:32.840 For a number of channels to just cut him off.

00:54:35.500 Oh, who cares?

00:54:36.080 Yeah, exactly.

00:54:37.920 It's absolutely humiliating.

00:54:40.460 But it's like, you asked for this fight.

00:54:43.720 And there are ways.

00:54:45.520 I mean, I don't want to go back into my, jump back on my deplatforming hobby horse.

00:54:49.760 But there are ways that this issue can be solved.

00:54:53.760 And just yammering about Section 230 and threatening that you're going to, that you're just going to get sued by all these people and saying that they're all fake news and they're horrible.

00:55:05.000 Just doing that over and over has consequences.

00:55:07.920 You pick a fight.

00:55:09.260 You've got to get, you've got to be willing to throw punches back.

00:55:12.760 You've got to be willing to do something.

00:55:14.520 And sometimes not picking that fight is maybe a good idea.

00:55:18.420 And just kind of slowly moving of saying things like, well, we all want fair media.

00:55:24.000 Social media is now mainstream.

00:55:26.400 Social media is no longer the kind of wild west that it was in 2015 to 2016.

00:55:31.360 We kind of need everyone to have a voice and we need to kind of work this out.

00:55:35.220 He could have helped the alternative media quite a bit, but he didn't.

00:55:38.860 I mean, Matt Drudge, you know, again, this is like a discussion for another day.

00:55:42.520 But Matt, I saw this very interesting article that was sent to me.

00:55:46.140 In 2017, Matt Drudge said that Donald Trump saved mass media, that these companies actually were failing.

00:55:53.700 Vanity Fair might have been going out of business.

00:55:56.740 Washington Post was, you know, they had to be bought by Bezos.

00:55:59.980 New York Times wasn't profiting.

00:56:02.260 They benefited from the Trump effect by him giving them interviews all the time, by them just broadcasting his speeches.

00:56:09.140 And then they benefited from the Trump effect after he got in office by just all this liberal outrage and the resistance and so on.

00:56:16.260 He kind of saved them.

00:56:17.880 And then he didn't do anything for alternative media.

00:56:21.700 He just threatened and fumed, but he didn't do something about deplatforming.

00:56:30.080 And that is the lifeblood of alternative media.

00:56:32.300 I mean, look, let's just be honest.

00:56:34.080 We are, this is going to be broadcast as a podcast and on BitChute. 0.93

00:56:38.920 That is not where I want to be on YouTube, but I have to deal with the situation as it is.

00:56:45.780 But Trump could have tried something.

00:56:49.340 I know it's hard, but he could have done something and he just simply didn't.

00:56:54.660 And, you know, I don't know.

00:56:58.860 It's the end of the world.

00:57:00.520 Look, this guy, you know, he needed to have done something.

00:57:05.120 So I have no sympathy for him.

00:57:07.520 None.

00:57:08.720 I mean, I'm maybe harsher than you are, but I just don't.

00:57:13.880 I have sympathy for his, like, middle, I have sympathy for, like, the broad, white, middle class and working-collar people who support him and think that he's their only chance and he represents them.

00:57:26.100 He doesn't hate them like the liberals.

00:57:27.960 I have sympathy for them.

00:57:29.160 I think they're real, authentic people. 0.99

00:57:31.000 But for this man himself, he can go to hell. 1.00

00:57:35.520 Hail Trump. 1.00

00:57:38.440 Hail our people.

00:57:39.520 Hail victory.

00:57:39.980 Words from long ago.

00:58:10.260 Join us at theиля.

00:58:11.060 Hail.

00:58:18.180 See you, Jason.

00:58:20.900 This is called perfectionist.

00:58:23.000 Thanks, Jason.

00:58:28.440 Thanks, Jason.

00:58:29.180 We'll see you next time.

00:58:35.120 See you next time.

00:58:36.700 Bye.

00:58:37.200 Bye.

00:58:37.760 Bye.

00:58:39.300 Bye.

00:58:39.680 Bye.

RadixJournal - November 12, 2020

Election 2020 Analysis

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