00:00:00.000let's just sum it up. So blue wave. Now, in many ways, predicting a democratic victory was the0.98
00:00:08.760easiest thing you could ever do. The first midterms of a presidential year always flip.
00:00:17.780Am I? Did I? I guess my hopefully my audio is not.
00:00:23.840my i i just my my froze there for a moment yeah so first midterm of a presidential term
00:00:33.640always flips didn't happen for fdr his first midterm 1934 it didn't happen for george w bush
00:00:44.660as well in 2002 i i think there was just this wave of pro terror war enthusiasm and that's when they
00:00:55.720were calling like vietnam veterans who lost limbs uh osama bin laden supporters and things like this
00:01:05.660Anyway, so the Republicans increased their power in 2002, and we've seen, like, little things coming forth.
00:01:16.580I mean, the first midterm of the Biden election was a Republican victory, and the Republicans took the House, but it wasn't really much of anything to write home about.
00:01:26.700And it certainly didn't express the vibe shift of 2024 where all of these low propensity voters are coming out to vote for Trump because of COVID and Joe Rogan and transsexuals and libs being elitist or all this kind of stuff.
00:01:47.980There was a vibe shift, particularly among low propensity voters. And it seems like that the low propensity voters are either staying home or they're voting Democrat because they're very pissed off.0.64
00:02:04.700And there's also some interesting things. I saw this on Twitter just before I was coming on, but it seems like a lot of this demography is destiny is playing out in this election in a way that it didn't play out earlier.
00:02:23.380I would always stress when, you know, the sort of Republican-leaning white nationalist would be like, oh, you know, the Republican Party is the white man's home and things like that.
00:02:37.320I just – it was like, well, are you actually looking at the numbers?
00:02:41.960Mitt Romney got a larger percentage of the white vote in 2012 than Donald Trump did in 2016.
00:02:50.260And Donald Trump kept working his way into minority communities. It was remarkable. The Latino vote getting close to 50-50. Remarkable. You actually saw a little bit of that with George W. Bush back in the day, particularly when he was proposing amnesty and things like that.0.98
00:03:09.560But Trump won them over. He won them over through his outlandish personality and through QAnon, which was very popular on social media, including Hispanic social media.
00:03:25.320But anyway, that seems to be fading. And it really is white people voting for Republicans, you know, 52-48. And Latinos are returning to that 60-40, maybe 65-35 split. Blacks are returning home to the Democratic Party, etc., etc.
00:03:51.520So we seem to be just reverting to the mean or reverting to that demographic expectation that people have been talking about for my entire lifetime.0.65
00:04:04.760So it's, you know, I think that is also one story.
00:04:10.500You know, there's a reported fight between Jared Kushner and Stephen Miller, and Jared Kushner was attacking Stephen Miller for promoting the ICE stuff and hyping up ICE and being too brutal and all that kind of stuff.
00:04:29.820And Stephen Miller, I guess, to his credit, was attacking Jared for invading Iran.1.00
00:04:35.200Now, I think both of them are sort of correct.0.98
00:04:38.060uh i think both of those things did lose the midterm i think just iran is is more powerful
00:04:45.020um the immigration the ice of you know the meme of ice the meme of republicans holding up mass
00:04:56.600deportation signs etc uh the image of christy gnome in an el salvadorian death camp uh it's
00:05:07.340don't you don't you come here don't don't come we'll send you here is this place is a lot worse
00:05:12.840than Cincinnati that kind of thing just is over they that doesn't work they blew it they hyped
00:05:22.320themselves up on like social media sadism and people didn't like it and I know this is a hobby
00:05:32.800horse of mine, but why not just accept the reality of illegal immigration to a large
00:05:46.220degree as it's seasonal, they come and they go, it's not just seasonal, but it's economically
00:05:57.920seasonal in the sense that if there's a major downturn, they don't come, they go home.
00:06:05.040If there's a housing boom, they're going to come here in masses.0.53
00:06:09.700Except a little bit of that reality, that illegal immigration, being that our country
00:06:16.560borders Mexico and thus borders Central America and thus borders South America, there is going
00:06:22.500to be an influx. Now, it is what it is. And I certainly think that, you know, criminals should0.94
00:06:30.060be kicked out and blah, blah, blah. Even liberals will say that when they're attacking ICE.
00:06:35.700But why not just focus entirely on legal immigration and focus entirely on H-1B visa
00:06:45.720holders, focus entirely on legal immigration and high-skilled immigration, and basically
00:06:52.800start to say things like, well, you know, we live in a different world now, and there
00:06:57.800are a billion-some Indians and a billion-some Chinese and a billion-some Asians all over
00:09:11.480That just would have been the forward-looking move.
00:09:15.700And I really do think that the ICE, it's not so much of the ICE deportations.
00:09:21.820Because Obama deported a lot of people. Biden, it's a little wishy-washy because you almost had an open post-COVID, post the collapse of illegal immigration and immigration during COVID, you had this sort of, yeah, maybe we should have open borders mentality.
00:09:38.960But it just would have been a very smart, forward-looking policy to crack down on legal immigration, really change that paradigm of family reunification as opposed to pumping up sadism on the internet.
00:09:57.860Now, the other thing is that even if they had done that, if we're just talking about electoral victories, even if they had done that, I'm not sure the Republicans would have won in this first midterm.
00:10:10.520Maybe it wouldn't have been quite the bloodbath that it is tonight.0.57
00:10:14.440But the major factor is just simply the Iran war.
00:10:19.280And it just, we're not, you know, there's talk of the vibe shift.
00:10:24.800you have to read the room and get the vibe i was an adult during 9-11 i witnessed 9-11
00:10:34.480believe it or not i was in new york city at the time and uh let me do this i am having some
00:10:42.060issues with wi-fi i'm just gonna go fully plugged in yeah i am just fully uh on ethernet now
00:10:51.660um yeah i literally did 9-11 that's how close i was to it i was in art school at the time um but uh
00:11:02.960anyway um yeah that was a that was like the springtime for boomers 9-11 because
00:11:11.900boomers were in their 40s 50s they were rich they had just experienced the
00:11:22.220bonanza of the dot-com boom many had become millionaires many had lost a lot but they had
00:11:28.420they were just all doing well and there was this patriotism and chauvinism of america that was just
00:11:36.940very natural to them. If you wanted to get along, I mean, I was, of course, a dissident, but if you
00:11:44.940wanted to get along in that time, even if you were a Democrat, you needed to put an American flag on
00:11:53.060your SUV and wear a lapel pin with the state of Israel and America right there and just be hyper0.81
00:12:02.060patriotic and goofy and talk about spreading democracy that was just a time when being pro-war
00:12:09.400clearly was politically advantageous and donald trump uh you know he didn't get a majority in
00:12:18.1602000 he definitely got a majority in 2004 um and they won the midterms in 2002 it was only until
00:12:27.7002006 when the american public caught up to me because i'm always out in front i know where
00:12:35.640things are headed they finally caught up to me in 2006 and they did a thumping in the midterms that
00:12:44.500was pretty dramatic and definitely set the stage for obama now i think everything resets you know
00:12:51.660two years is a long time everything resets but it definitely set the stage for obama but
00:12:55.540of course the stock market crash in the fall of 2008 i mean there was just no chance for mccain
00:13:03.680to win that election uh he did pretty well under the circumstances the war was unpopular everyone
00:13:09.700was demoralized the stock market was creating 1929 vibes uh it was yeah it was something that
00:13:19.640was a very negative social mood dark time and again it's not so much about party it's about
00:13:26.960switching parties and i don't think mccain had anything close to a chance but i say this
00:13:32.160in the sense that the iraq war there was a build-up to the iraq war of two years
00:13:40.300They were talking about Iraq even after 9-11. There was a long-term propaganda campaign on behalf of Iraq that got everyone fired up and thinking that this is the most important thing in my life right now.
00:13:59.880Nothing approaching that happened with Iran. It was done in the middle of the night after a State of the Union address in which I don't even remember if Iran got a mention.0.69
00:14:10.300i mean it was shocking i think trump was feeling himself he was still right on the you know riding
00:14:17.920the wave of 2024 and you know i stayed out of jail the people are with me there's been a vibe shift
00:14:27.380and all this kind of stuff and he venezuela was a sort of maybe i mean it was a good campaign but0.88
00:14:37.100it was a kind of fool's gold because Venezuela is very different than Iran. And it doesn't scale0.92
00:14:45.740because the situations are fundamentally different. So fundamentally different than
00:14:53.600overthrowing a 10-pot dictator whom people genuinely loathe. They were more or less happy
00:14:58.640and it went well. But unfortunately, that gave the idea to Trump that he can do the same thing
00:15:04.740in Iran. And I do hold him accountable. I'm not going to say he was tricked into it by
00:15:09.900Bibi Netanyahu or whatever. He didn't trick George W. Bush because he was too wily or
00:15:15.900something. I mean, at some point, you make a decision, you have to be responsible for
00:15:20.980it. And Iran just was a sort of worst of all worlds where you couldn't do a Venezuela1.00
00:15:29.200thing you killed the regime but which is i guess a powerful statement we can do regime death0.89
00:17:07.040I've, this is, Tucker, you know, made a big hullabaloo about talking about the use of
00:17:14.020a tactical nuclear weapon on an Iranian nuclear site.
00:17:17.780The only way to destroy a nuke is with one, I guess.0.77
00:17:20.500But yes, I do think that that is possible, if not likely. But multiple sources, including extremely mainstream think tanky sources like the Eurasian group, including liberals, etc., they are saying that we are going to be reinvigorated in bombing Iran tomorrow morning, Thursday, maybe Friday at the latest.0.90
00:17:50.500So, yeah, this is going to rear its head again almost immediately.0.52
00:17:56.120But I've been setting things up for a little while here, Alex.