On this week's episode, the boys talk about the election, the alt-right, and the Russia/Trump conspiracy theories. They also discuss the possibility of a Russian hack of the 2016 election, and whether or not this is a good or bad thing.
00:01:17.340It's time for me to, you know, be dox for, you know, not voting for that guy.
00:01:25.640But again, I love all these guys, as I was saying before, where they're like,
00:01:30.040oh, I'm super critical of Trump or whatever.
00:01:32.760They're like, oh, I'm third position or like I'm alt, whatever.
00:01:36.160And then they like viciously attack anyone who doesn't vote for Republicans.
00:01:41.660There were, there were a bunch of people, there were, there were, there were a bunch of people who like at the very last moment, like flip back to Trump.
00:01:51.860And that night of the, that, that night of the, of the election, when I was, I was drunk and I was like, hey, look, it looks like Trump is doing great.
00:04:07.880I'm by no means like trying to leave out any, any side that claimed that they're not guilty of this.
00:04:14.480But it's, you can see this in the lawsuits themselves where they, they're like making, and these lawsuits are getting tossed out of court left and right.
00:04:24.000I think all but one of them has been tossed out unless I'm incorrect.
00:04:27.180But they, they're in search of evidence.
00:04:30.460They're, they're like, we know there's, we know that something's going on here.
00:04:35.240So, like, let's go find the evidence now.
00:05:28.180So, it kind of sharpens my knife, so to speak, to listen to him.
00:05:31.720But nevertheless, he's still on this team, Team Red.
00:05:36.200And I was thinking to myself, like, as people increasingly watch less mainstream media and they tune in to Facebook, you know, your favorite YouTube personality, Tim Pool, Steve Turley.
00:05:50.800Because Steve Turley gets, like, a quarter of a million views on every video.
00:05:53.760I mean, he has an audience that's larger than ours, just for what it's worth.
00:05:57.300But, yeah, if you tune in only to Steve Turley, Tim Pool, all these characters, if you're, you know, talking to your uncle on your Facebook group and he's giving you conspiracy theories, you are just, you might very well think that, like, Trump is winning and that the liberals are running for the hills and they're, you know, pulling their hair out and biting their nails because they know they've been had.
00:06:20.660I mean, the level of, like, narrative, macro narrative divergence, I don't know, I don't think it's ever been this strong.
00:06:31.920Especially with people who are online.
00:06:34.180Like, from my understanding, like, normal conservatives or Trump supporters who aren't, you know, big into a Facebook group or Twitter or whatever have kind of accepted it more.
00:09:07.420Back in, I think, April and May, they were pumping the – look at these demonstrators who are rising up against the tyrannical lockdowns.
00:09:17.300So they tried to do that earlier this year.
00:09:21.000Although this time they're in a, I would say, in a, you know, pretty bad spot.
00:09:25.760Like we said, like we both agreed, the main take before the election for six months was no matter who won the election, the other side was – there was absolutely no chance.
00:09:36.040The other side was ever going to acknowledge that they legitimately lost.
00:09:39.560And we're in that – we're in that point.
00:09:45.440If you look back at what we said before the election, maybe we were too quick to assume that they would acknowledge it was over because, you know, Holly 2024 hasn't launched.
00:10:05.520They're all sticking with Trump who insists he won the election.
00:10:10.620And so, in fact, like, so much of the Republican base is just so glued to – so absolutely glued to this narrative that, you know, things aren't really happening like they normally would,
00:10:24.280where they have, you know, the post-election Civil War Republican Party.
00:10:30.100And so all that's been postponed, I guess.
00:10:35.500Because we could at least imagine a scenario in which the GOP told Trump no and told him no hard, you know, and that's kind of where they were four years ago.
00:10:47.800I mean, remember, the GOP, they were just drag, you know, drag, kicking and screaming into the Trump movement.
00:10:55.100And they eventually got there by the summer of 2016.
00:12:25.600Like, there is this so-called nuclear option of, in the words of Darren Beattie, of, you know, convincing the Electoral College voters and so on.
00:12:37.320I – yeah, I give that – I think 1% chance is extremely generous.
00:12:43.000And if they did that, I mean, that would cause its own just tremendous problems.
00:12:49.100Because you have kind of, like – I mean, what is it now?
00:12:52.040Republicans have lost the popular vote seven out of eight last elections?
00:13:55.340So, I was a bit – I mean, I picked the right victor, but I was a bit off.
00:14:00.400I underestimated – it wasn't even so much overestimating Biden because he did benefit – I mean, Trump is right when he says that, you know, this is a mail-in, you know, flood.
00:14:11.640You know, and that clearly has been benefit by Biden.
00:14:15.260And Trump made it benefit by Biden, I should add, because he delegitimized mail-in-person.
00:14:20.020But, you know, I think I underestimated – I think I was, you know, in my own head a little too much being just pissed off at Trump.
00:14:29.480Yeah, you thought it was – Richard's official prediction was that it was going to be a blue wave.
00:14:35.300Actually, but, you know, technically it was a blue wave.
00:14:38.880I mean, Biden won by four points, but the thing is, is that the House is so gerrymandered that – and the Democrats are so concentrated in these cities that –
00:14:59.240They won by nine points if you aggregate all House races.
00:15:03.980Yeah, and so that was larger than any red wave.
00:15:06.880So these, like, 94 and 2010 – I mentioned this in my piece on this, and I'm kind of writing a piece called What the Hell Happened, which is kind of, like, the next stage of this.
00:15:18.580But, yeah, the 94 revolution in the 2010 Tea Party election, I think the Republicans won by, like, five or six points.
00:15:28.040The 2018 was a wave election, like, 100%.
00:15:32.160They won by, like, nine percentage points.
00:15:34.780And I don't think they went down too much.
00:15:37.140So we're just seeing, like, cascades of blue.
00:15:42.240And, you know, but, again, like, Republicans spin this, like, as if they won something.
00:15:47.640Yeah, it was actually – I mean, this election was – I mean, when I looked at – I mean, you can see the swing map.
00:15:54.820It was pretty much, like, static except in a – except in, you know, certain key suburban areas and around Miami and, you know, the Texas border.
00:16:38.320Well, we don't have an invisible audience, but what I'm saying is, obviously, like, it's not so much like I just do something and this happens.
00:16:48.380Like, I'm kind of part of the wave as much as I push the wave in my own little small way.
00:16:56.700But, you know, I think a lot of people did read and they probably saw a tweet or read an article or saw their friend on Facebook tweeting about, like, the fact that I was voting for Biden.
00:17:25.480Yeah, and the big takeaway of the 2020 election is that literally no one changed their mind except people like Richard Spencer and Brad Griffith.
00:18:33.280And he did, in one of the things, you know, one of the things I think that was getting, given too much credit was like, oh, it's a new, it's a new multi-ethnic Republican.
00:18:43.300It's a new multi-ethnic, multi-racial working class Republican Party because Trump did better with minorities this time than he did last time.
00:18:52.220But actually, actually, the big actually there is that because he was seen as a more conservative, normal conservative Republican, he didn't perform as badly with non-whites this time as he did last time.
00:19:05.540So, I mean, he ran as a Republican, I mean, that's the story, he ran as a conservative, he ran as a Republican, he lost the Rust Belt while winning more Blacks, more Hispanics, more Asians.
00:19:20.040But, I mean, the margins are there, it's like, it wasn't so much that there.
00:21:05.480Oh, well, you thought that Trump won more, more non-white votes because he just went back to being a normal Republican and maybe not like such a crypto white nationalist or whatever.
00:22:25.720Now, I think there's a, there is a complicated story among Hispanics, because if you, if you take a step back, like the, the 65, 35 break of Hispanics or 60, 40, you know, maybe 70, 30.
00:22:43.240So it changed in kind of little places.
00:22:46.840So I think in Florida, there are these, there's always been a kind of Republican base of, you know, like Cubans who are wildly anti-socialism and so on.
00:22:57.960I think there's also a kind of aspirational Hispanic in the suburb that was looking towards Trump.
00:23:04.640And I think Trump lost that, you know, alt-right edge, you could say, that he had in 2016.
00:23:12.700My little pet theory, which I don't know how I or anyone could prove this, but I think it, I think there was some, you know, there are these wild districts like in South Texas that were just like extreme Trump.
00:23:27.280And my pet theory is that Hispanics really don't like BLM for a number of reasons, including just, you know, some of the reasons that people are uncomfortable with, with, with African Americans in general.
00:23:43.640But, but also maybe a little resentment of like, why are we still talking about you guys?
00:23:48.840Like, we're the new minority, you know, we, we're the, we're the ones that matter.
00:23:52.620Like, why are we, you know, obsessed with Africans as opposed to Hispanics?
00:23:57.280And, um, I think there was probably like a weird thing that went on there where it was like, let's stick it to BLM by voting for, uh, by voting for Trump.
00:24:07.580And I think that obviously held among, uh, many whites as well.
00:24:11.620I'll, I'll jump in, I'll jump in and try to give you my explanation of it.
00:24:15.940With, with, with blacks, with, with blacks in particular, um, I think the exit polls, I mean, maybe he did two to four points better than last time.
00:24:25.820From what I've seen with the exit polls, but what happened, what actually happened is that in 2008 and 2012, um, Obama was, you know, on the ticket.
00:24:37.540So the Republicans did worse with blacks in both of those elections.
00:24:42.440And then in 2016 and 2020, blacks kind of migrated, migrated back to the George W. Bush, 2004, um, about, about 10% of the black vote, getting more, more black women.
00:24:57.280And, and, about six, six or seven points more over the black male vote, but nothing really changed.
00:25:02.820That's really just the fading, in my view, the, the fading of the Obama effect.
00:25:08.240Maybe the Jared's platinum plan thing had some kind of impact.
00:25:12.260Maybe all these rap stars, uh, maybe, maybe marginally like, like in places like Chicago, like he, like the places that Trump did better than last time were Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia.
00:25:25.900You know, the, you know, the places where all the fraud is supposed to occur.
00:25:30.080Those are literally the places where he did better.
00:25:32.700Like, like, like, like he, Trump won 5,000 more votes in Detroit and Joe Biden won a thousand less votes than Hillary.
00:25:47.320But, um, and they decided to allow Republicans to win some congressional races while engaging in fraud just to kind of like throw us off the seat.
00:26:44.840And then of course, you know, he's been, you know, just completely anti-Iran, anti-Shiite.
00:26:51.360So, and the Muslim ban, of course, turned out to be this big joke that really applied only to Iran and like North Korea and Venezuela and Cuba.
00:26:59.500So, and so, so he won more, he won more, uh, the Asian vote is kind of complicated.
00:27:05.460There's a lot of, of, you know, beefs and, beefs and resentments going on there.
00:27:10.500And of course, a lot of, I think a lot of some Asians were just scared off by the, alienated by the, the, didn't they, didn't they vote against affirmative action in California?
00:27:24.160Actually, uh, there was a big referendum on affirmative action that was just emphatic.
00:27:28.800And then Hispanics, and then, and then with Hispanics, it's a couple of things.
00:27:32.780First of all, with, um, to John O's down in South Texas, that was like the biggest, if I'm not mistaken, one of the biggest two, one of the two biggest shifts.
00:27:44.500Those people down there are, you know, had been there for like 200 years in Texas.
00:27:50.160So they consider themselves, they think of themselves as whites, I guess, 56 percenters.
00:27:55.760Um, they think of themselves as natives.
00:27:58.740They think of themselves as rural voters, working class voters.
00:28:04.320And of course, Joe Biden was like, okay, or the impression in the campaign was that they were going to abolish ICE.
00:28:11.140Um, a lot of those people abolished, opened the border.
00:28:15.060A lot of those people, uh, work for the border patrol and fracking was the big issue down there that Trump made an issue of.
00:28:22.480And so, I mean, they, Trump appealed to those Hispanics.
00:28:27.940Um, he lost, I want to say, I want to say he lost handily amongst the Mexican immigrants in places like Dallas, but down there, he appealed to, uh, Hispanics as whites and natives and rural voters whose interests would be injured by having Biden as president persuasively.
00:28:46.900Then, of course, in South Florida, South Florida, it was, you know, Venezuela and socialism and Cuba is socialism.
00:28:58.340And you got two big, you know, expat communities there who were, who the, you know, the socialism sucks message resonated with him.
00:29:07.800Um, and he appealed to them, you know, on the basis of, you know, nationality, not as like Hispanics and one more then.
00:29:16.000And then, and then, of course, just because he was seen as a more normal Republican candidate and immigration, immigration really wasn't part of this election at all.
00:29:25.260It was, I think, 3% of voters said that immigration was the most important issue.
00:29:29.660And because immigration was off the table and Trump was running as a more normal Republican, he, like, he won more of the, he, he just did, it's not that he was, he did better with the Hispanic vote.
00:29:40.780It's just, he did so much poorly with it the first time.
00:29:45.420So, and then of course, but the, the biggest, the absolute, the biggest shift of all the most decisive thing that happened with, I've written about it endlessly on my blog is with, I mean, you can, you can count white men, independence, moderates.
00:29:59.920Living in the suburbs, making under a hundred thousand dollars a year.
00:30:10.780I mean, it's, it's where the 5% meme where it's like, look, you know, you can hate on this all you want, but it's actually a real thing.
00:30:19.760You know, like we're describing reality and you can hate it.
00:30:23.580And I, I've heard other people where like, I, I, I mean, I don't want to make this too personal, but it's the, that genie guy who, you know, again, claims to be a big Trump critic.
00:30:32.640But, you know, when you look at his actions and not his words, he, he's clearly a Trump fanatic.
00:30:39.160Like, and he would, I think at one point he literally said, he, he was like, oh, well, yeah, he did.
00:31:00.800I forgot, I forgot college educated there.
00:31:03.380So if you, so if you, so if you, so if you take in, if you take in every Richard Spencer box, what you got white male, you got independent, you got independent voter, you got moderate.
00:31:14.420Is it not being a liberal or a conservative?
00:31:16.840You got college, you got college, you got college educated.
00:31:30.620And, you know, I've, I've identified, I've identified, like, you know, I've gone through all the, I did a previous podcast with Robert Stark and I went, I went, I got, I got out of a pew topology surveys.
00:31:42.760And like I explained exactly where all these people were in the electorate is like right in the dead center.
00:31:49.140In fact, I think I'm the, on the pre-election podcast I did with you.
00:31:52.600I was like, you know, I think that, you know, Trump's going to lose because I'm kind of in the dead center of where things are.
00:32:01.080Um, he, yeah, he, he appealed, what happened was, is that in the 2020, in the 2016 election, and, and this is, and this is true, uh, across the, you can see, you can see it, uh, in the exit polls, in both things.
00:32:14.460But he won in the, uh, Trump's base in the 2016 election was amongst white independents, more moderates.
00:32:24.380Man, he was, when he was elected, he was seen as, you know, an extremely moderate for Republican.
00:32:28.460And that is on economics and foreign policy and issues like that.
00:32:32.580He was explicitly, he, in a, in a book, he came out in favor of health, health care for all.
00:32:40.120Like, and he, he kind of, he did, he wasn't quite as explicit in the campaign, but he, he indicated as much.
00:32:45.880Uh, he was going to save all these jobs and rig the system on our behalf.
00:32:51.780Um, and, and again, the, the conservatives actually did campaigning for him because from, you know, the summer of 2015 up until the summer of 2016, when they all turned, or more, a lot of them did at least, one of their key, uh, critiques was that he's a big liberal.
00:33:23.820And we can, we can talk about the Fuentes phenomenon as well and talk about it objectively and not, uh, bitterly at all.
00:33:29.600But, um, yeah, it was like, I think even Malkin was anti-Trump at that point.
00:33:33.780I'll have to go check on this, but a lot of the, the people who became Trump fans later on were against him and they would bring up things like, um, his use of eminent domain and building real estate ventures in the nineties or something.
00:33:45.760It was just so just, just tangential to any real issue.
00:33:50.760But a lot of it was like, he's a liberal, he's a socialist, he's a Democrat as he, as he, you know, he supported Democrats.
00:34:08.620So like in the, in the, in the, in the, you got to remember in the end of the 2016 election, he was going after, he was going after banks and everything down in West Palm beach.
00:34:17.460All the conservatives had turned against them and were attacking, attacking him.
00:34:22.140And he, he, he, he, I'm telling you the reason he would, the reason Trump was elected president in 2016 is because he appealed to white men who are independent voters who make under a hundred thousand dollars a year, who are moderates and who are not conservatives.
00:34:40.520Do you think like that same Trump 2016, do you think that'll be the strategy going forward for like a neo, I don't know, neo-Trumpists, like your Josh Hawley types and stuff?
00:34:51.020Like, like, like I, cause I think they're going to run like more Trump, Trumpist, Trumpian candidates like Josh Hawley or Tom Cotton.
00:34:59.480Like, do you think they'll like go back to talking about immigration or like, what do you think that'll look like in 2024?
00:35:11.300And I, I have something to say, but I'll let you go first.
00:35:13.800Well, well, I mean, like we said in the previous podcast, the, the GOP prefer to lose for like a hundred from the most part for a hundred years, you know, for the last hundred years, rather than like change their position on economic, moderate their position on economics to appeal to white people who are more in the center of the electorate.
00:35:32.580They prefer to lose throughout like the whole, the whole era.
00:35:36.480Now we'll, we'll, we'll, will Trumpism go away?
00:35:41.620And in some form, in some form, it's going to, at least rhetorically, I mean, that's what we saw.
00:35:48.640Like we found out when we elected Trump, it was mainly a rhetorical strategy.
00:35:53.640So the rhetoric will build, there'll be Trumpian, Trumpian rhetoric.
00:35:58.600But the question is, or is any of these people actually going to like implement some kind of serious policy, whether it's Hawley or Rubio or, or either one, I don't, I don't know.
00:36:10.040But yeah, Trump, Trumpism in, in some form, it was too successful, it was too successful for them to, to get rid of.
00:36:19.160And I mean, Marco Rubio is already, Marco Rubio 15.0 has already come out and is trying to at least talk like Trumpian conservative.
00:36:40.620So this is a very mainstream magazine that like breaks stories on movies or whatever.
00:36:46.520Um, so the Michelle Malkin, the conservative, so this is from 2015, the conservative blogger called Trump out during a Fox segment in 2011, saying that he built his entire empire in defiance of core Tea Party principles.
00:37:02.720It's time for those conservatives who, who's, who have been flirting with Donald Trump to get serious themselves.
00:37:09.180I think actually, um, didn't Nick Fuentes say the exact same line?
00:37:15.400Following, following Trump's official bed for presidency on June 16th, Malkin tweeted, getting emails from conservatives welcoming Ronald McDonald chump would be refreshing to see more conservatives telling him to fuck off.
00:38:10.820We're, the reason we've always, I mean, you think about 20 years of having the GOP in power, from our perspective is, I mean, especially after the wreckage of Trump, it's just been an absolute, absolute catastrophe.
00:38:33.100And the reason we feel like it would probably be the less, the least catastrophic.
00:38:37.840Yeah, the reason we feel like that is because we are more in the middle.
00:38:42.260This is one of the most interesting things I found out, that the stratum of the electorate that's in the center is, I looked at the peace surveys, and going all the way back to the 80s, it was disaffected, disaffected, disaffected, embittered, hard-pressed skeptics, and then finally, market-skeptic Republicans, right?
00:39:01.420And what these people were, you know, they think that, they think the economic system is rigged.
00:39:10.080I mean, something like 95% of them believe that.
00:39:13.100Um, their issues are immigration and foreign policy.
00:39:17.060Not as much as the social conservative types, but still, um, so what happened in 2016 was, was, this is, you can see this reflected in the Pew surveys, is that group came into the Republican Party.
00:39:33.380Now, the core conservative types, they're like 13, they're 12, 13% of the population, but they're 20% of the people who are politically engaged.
00:39:43.740The social conservatives are, are kind of a distinct group, um, they're more, more downscale.
00:39:50.940They're like 7% of the adult population and about 7% of the politically engaged.
00:39:56.200Then there's another group called, like, new era enterprisers.
00:40:00.600And what these people are is they're moderates, but they're like libertarians, um, they're cultural libertarians.
00:40:08.020That was another group that came in to the GOP.
00:40:10.480And they're like 12% of the population, and then the hard-pressed skeptics are about 12, the nationalists and populist types, who were out in the center 20, 30 years ago, but as the Republican base shrank, shrank, shrank, were pressed more to the right.
00:40:29.340They're like 12 or 13% of the population, too.
00:40:31.520So, um, like, the Republicans can't win.
00:40:35.780There's, there's no possible way for the Republicans to win the White House except winning our group.
00:40:42.620But they're not, they don't, they don't want to do that because they don't want to moderate on economics and foreign policy.
00:41:18.000He kind of, you know, that it probably in a better way than like Nikki Haley or, or whatever, who, who have a lot of hate from the MAGA crowd.
00:41:25.720Um, there's, there is the Tucker thing, although he might've blown it by just being like reasonable and down to earth on Sidney Powell.
00:41:33.700There, there is obviously like Josh Hawley is wildly ambitious as is Tom, Tom Cotton.