RadixJournal - Trump, Greenland, Canada, and Ukraine

00:00:00.000 Hello, everyone. It is January 8th, just after noon my time, and I'm going to talk a little bit about Trump, Greenland, Canada, and Russia and Ukraine.

00:00:16.440 So what sparked this discussion is my observation, just on Twitter, but Twitter is real life, as we know, kind of is, but my observation that most, if not quite all, of the pro-NATO faction and pro-Ukrainian faction and liberals in general

00:00:45.200 are up in arms about the prospect that Trump might purchase Greenland, integrate that as some sort of territory, that Canada might become the 51st state, or perhaps there would be 10 new states and three provinces.

00:01:05.620 That's probably how it would go down. But some sort of unification with Canada, I don't think anyone in their right mind would think that American troops would invade Canada in some brutal conquest and suppression of Canadians and so on.

00:01:30.380 But there is the suggestion of a sort of unification, and that's met with resistance.

00:01:36.940 But what I am talking about is the fact that pro-NATO personalities and thinkers and analysts, pro-Ukraine people are up in arms about this prospect and are just in a knee-jerk fashion against it.

00:01:57.260 I think they're wrong, and it's very disappointing to see this.

00:02:03.020 I would suggest to them that Trump's geopolitical posturing, his geopolitical ideas, are actually very good for Ukraine,

00:02:17.540 in the sense that someone who is thinking in these ways, on these terms, is much, much more likely to continue to support Ukraine,

00:02:31.040 maybe even support it with more lethal aid than Joe Biden.

00:02:36.120 And remember, Joe Biden and the liberals have not exactly been great on, in terms, on Ukraine, in terms of giving Ukraine the weaponry that it needs.

00:02:49.180 They've done a sort of slow roll, one step back, two steps forward.

00:02:56.680 You know what I'm talking about.

00:02:58.260 I think Trump, very likely, will be better on these matters.

00:03:05.800 And the fact that he is thinking in these big, bold, imperial terms is part of that.

00:03:14.540 Now, all of this remains to be seen.

00:03:18.520 The talk about Greenland in Canada might be bluster.

00:03:21.840 We have heard it before.

00:03:22.900 It might be dropped and never happen.

00:03:28.460 Trump might, in fact, pursue the Charlie Kirk or Tucker Carlson strategy and claim that he's a peacemaker by just shutting off aid to Ukraine

00:03:38.640 and abandoning it and shaking hands with Russia, with Putin, that is.

00:03:44.720 And I might very well be wrong, and I will be the first to admit that I am wrong.

00:03:49.980 But I don't think I'm wrong, and I am actually deeply encouraged by Trump's posturing, his big ideas.

00:04:01.100 And I'm deeply encouraged by what this would mean for an imperial America to support Ukraine.

00:04:09.320 So I'm going to be brief, because this is a big picture argument that I'm making.

00:04:15.660 So I think a lot of people who support Ukraine, at least the way that they justify it,

00:04:26.900 they justify it in a sort of national sovereignty, League of Nations, UN type way.

00:04:35.180 What they are in effect arguing is that after 1945, or some decades after, that all borders and nation states have effectively been frozen.

00:04:52.740 They have been frozen in ice.

00:04:54.560 We have just simply agreed that these are the borders, and if you step one foot across these borders, you are in violation of international law, and you're a monster.

00:05:08.580 Now, let me be clear. 0.99

00:05:10.520 I do think Putin is a monster.

00:05:12.620 I do think that what Putin has done to the Ukrainian people in attacks, not only on military targets, but on civilian targets, urban areas, I think this is terrible. 0.67

00:05:27.720 I 100% reject it, and I back Ukraine. 1.00

00:05:31.660 However, let's also be honest about geopolitics and the situation.

00:05:42.020 Borders change.

00:05:45.500 People migrate.

00:05:48.600 There were millions of Germans who migrated back into Germany after the end of the Second World War.

00:05:58.480 The borders of Germany have shifted so many times over the course of the 19th century and 20th century that you can't really keep up with it.

00:06:13.800 I do think that there is a core German culture and population that is ethnic and religious,

00:06:22.420 although that's a little bit ambiguous, being that many Germans are Catholic, most are Protestant, and linguistic, obviously.

00:06:34.420 Although even there, you have some little ambiguities and so on.

00:06:40.200 That being said, the borders, what is Germany?

00:06:43.420 What is the German state?

00:06:44.980 Have shifted all over the place over the late 19th and 20th century.

00:06:50.920 So things change.

00:06:53.540 And there are points in time where it just becomes natural for some sort of unification to occur.

00:07:04.240 I think that is clearly the case with the United States and Canada.

00:07:08.740 We obviously have different histories.

00:07:12.980 You can go back to the French-Indian War.

00:07:19.020 You can look at all sorts of different things, War of 1812, that will reveal different dynamics and contested territory, etc.

00:07:31.720 The queen is still on the Canadian loony.

00:07:37.840 It's still part of the British Empire in some shape or form.

00:07:45.900 But the reality of the situation is that the United States and Canada have a very, very similar culture,

00:07:57.760 a North American culture that is largely Anglo, if not entirely.

00:08:03.960 America has the Southwest and a Spanish-speaking culture.

00:08:11.280 Canada has the French-speaking culture.

00:08:15.920 And sure, there is a rivalry and some resentment and etc., etc.

00:08:23.160 But let's just be honest here.

00:08:26.260 There really is a discernible core North American culture.

00:08:31.860 There is obviously a discernible core economic relationship between America and Canada.

00:08:41.840 America is just obviously so much larger.

00:08:44.580 But America sort of needs Canada, too.

00:08:50.000 It's not a one-way street.

00:08:52.960 It's not entirely a one-way street in terms of military protection of the North American continent as well.

00:09:01.360 Canada does play a role in that.

00:09:03.220 Canada is a member of NATO.

00:09:04.500 Canada is obviously in an unshakable good relationship with the United States.

00:09:12.160 But in terms of defending, particularly the three territories of Canada,

00:09:18.200 in terms of defending this massive land swath,

00:09:22.400 that would be impossible without NORAD and without the United States.

00:09:27.740 So what is holding us back from just simply unifying into one large government?

00:09:47.320 This is something that would be totally consensual.

00:09:51.760 I'm sure there are people in Canada who wouldn't like it.

00:09:54.560 To be honest, if Canadians were offered the chance to travel freely without the passport,

00:10:03.460 I mean, they could more or less do that now.

00:10:06.080 You do need to show a passport at the northern border.

00:10:08.960 Lower taxes, the chance of working in the United States, 0.96

00:10:15.660 of maybe even living in your hometown,

00:10:19.100 but having just a deeper and easier business relationship with U.S. companies.

00:10:29.000 They might not say it now,

00:10:30.840 but I think they're going to take the offer once they look at the big picture.

00:10:35.900 I mean, is Canadian nationalism so strong

00:10:40.680 that they would really be against a unification with the United States?

00:10:44.940 Are we dealing with, you know, German culture vis-a-vis Nigeria, 0.95

00:10:51.660 where there are these just huge ethnic, racial, religious, cultural, historical differences

00:10:58.700 and just the never the twain can meet?

00:11:01.420 We're just so out of step with each other.

00:11:03.760 We couldn't ever unify.

00:11:05.400 We couldn't even talk to each other.

00:11:07.220 I mean, no, that's clearly not the case with the U.S. and Canada.

00:11:11.360 It just simply makes sense.

00:11:13.460 Greenland also makes sense.

00:11:15.740 Now, you know, is Greenland Europe or is it North America?

00:11:20.520 You know, you can, I guess, make arguments either way.

00:11:24.020 Iceland is integrated into the European Union.

00:11:28.580 Greenland, kind of, sort of.

00:11:31.620 I've actually done research on this this morning,

00:11:33.900 and it's rather confusing.

00:11:35.980 But Greenland has tremendous geographic strategic importance.

00:11:44.820 Greenland is a site of tremendous natural resources when it comes to fisheries,

00:11:50.800 when it comes to rare earth minerals.

00:11:53.740 China is very interested in Greenland.

00:11:56.260 That is something to be very wary of.

00:11:58.620 And so I think the purchase of Greenland,

00:12:02.620 that some sort of integration,

00:12:04.300 is it a new state?

00:12:05.520 Is it a kind of territory like Puerto Rico?

00:12:08.100 I don't quite know how it would play out.

00:12:11.380 But doesn't this just make a lot of sense?

00:12:14.940 And wouldn't the half dozen people who live in Greenland benefit from it?

00:12:21.260 Isn't it?

00:12:21.780 Wouldn't it just be better to be part of America?

00:12:24.400 I think if ultimately given the choice,

00:12:27.140 they would say yes to that.

00:12:29.920 The fact that Greenland does have natural resources,

00:12:33.860 that's a reality.

00:12:34.960 These are largely not fully exploited.

00:12:39.740 That's certainly an enticement for Trump.

00:12:43.080 But the fact that China is getting very interested in those resources,

00:12:49.480 and one motivation for Trump, at least I think,

00:12:52.740 is to keep China out of that, 0.97

00:12:56.140 to basically dominate our hemisphere in a Monroe-like fashion.

00:13:02.000 This shows that Trump sees the world,

00:13:06.480 maybe on a gut level, but also maybe on an intellectual level.

00:13:09.800 I know we're dealing with Trump, 0.51

00:13:10.980 and his statements are largely buffoonish,

00:13:13.480 but he does have an intellect.

00:13:15.480 This might indicate that he's seeing the world

00:13:18.340 in terms of big imperial blocks.

00:13:22.740 We have to confront China, 1.00

00:13:27.020 which is a civilizational state.

00:13:29.820 We have to confront China's increasingly good, 1.00

00:13:35.000 I'll put that in quotes,

00:13:36.220 relationship with Russia.

00:13:38.840 And securing this hemisphere

00:13:41.660 would be a major step forward in doing that.

00:13:47.300 Now, I've already made arguments about how I don't believe

00:13:53.360 that Donald Trump is going to sell out Ukraine.

00:13:57.180 I think many people in MAGA,

00:13:59.260 the Tucker Carlson and Charlie Kirk types,

00:14:03.020 and granted,

00:14:03.640 Charlie Kirk is friends with Donald Trump Jr.

00:14:09.820 He traveled to Greenland.

00:14:11.400 He's no doubt talking to Trump on a regular basis.

00:14:14.460 I mean, this is rather concerning on many levels, 0.93

00:14:18.320 not to mention the fact that he's ultimately just an obnoxious rube.

00:14:23.560 But it's also concerning that his ideas about Ukraine

00:14:27.720 would hold sway with Donald Trump.

00:14:30.180 But let's remember,

00:14:31.140 Donald Trump is Donald Trump.

00:14:32.880 Donald Trump is the leader.

00:14:35.080 Donald Trump is the alpha,

00:14:36.760 for better and for worse.

00:14:38.020 And people like Charlie Kirk and Tucker Carlson

00:14:42.260 are really ultimately going to follow along.

00:14:45.960 We have a lot of history of these people,

00:14:49.760 even kind of inching away from Trump,

00:14:53.660 thinking that they might want to dump Trump.

00:14:59.420 And they won't ultimately do it

00:15:01.880 because people like Tucker and Charlie Kirk are beta males,

00:15:06.780 and they're just going to follow along with the alpha.

00:15:10.520 He butters their bread,

00:15:12.500 and they even recognize this on some basic level.

00:15:17.100 I don't think it's in Trump's personality

00:15:20.720 to back down against Russia.

00:15:24.620 If Trump or some people around Trump

00:15:27.800 want to hand off parts of Ukraine's sovereign territory to Russia,

00:15:33.960 my guess is that Russia would reject that offer.

00:15:39.760 The reason for that is that if you froze the conflict right now,

00:15:44.700 if you take the lines on maps of the current stalemate trench warfare

00:15:53.380 that we're seeing,

00:15:54.940 Russia would, in effect, be giving over territory

00:16:00.280 that it is already recognized.

00:16:03.940 Russia is not going to want that deal.

00:16:06.340 It's going to want more.

00:16:08.060 I think Putin is,

00:16:09.480 his own personality is,

00:16:12.160 he's likely to engage in a kind of sunk cost fallacy

00:16:17.140 where he feels that so much has been invested in Ukraine,

00:16:22.840 that Ukraine is so strategically important

00:16:25.820 to the Russian Empire.

00:16:28.040 Remember,

00:16:29.300 when Ukraine had a referendum for sovereignty in 1991,

00:16:36.200 after that occurred,

00:16:37.780 immediately afterward,

00:16:39.980 the Soviet Union just collapsed.

00:16:41.880 The Soviet Union could not make sense 0.99

00:16:44.420 geographically without Ukraine.

00:16:47.360 It had to fall into rump Russia after that fact.

00:16:51.560 So I think Putin has just invested too much

00:16:57.780 for him to psychologically give up on Ukraine.

00:17:01.920 I think he wants more.

00:17:03.540 Any offer that Trump makes of,

00:17:06.700 let's just freeze the conflict,

00:17:08.440 you can have these eastern territories,

00:17:10.460 I think he's actually going to reject it.

00:17:12.400 And when that happens,

00:17:16.900 Trump is going to fire back at Putin

00:17:21.020 in an angry, resentful, bold, fiery fashion.

00:17:28.940 If Putin rejects a peace offer

00:17:32.940 that Trump honestly gives,

00:17:36.000 Trump will never let him hear the end of it.

00:17:39.000 And he will absolutely begin supporting Ukraine 0.92

00:17:43.540 in a war for national sovereignty,

00:17:49.480 or really a war for victory

00:17:50.980 that is pushing Russians out of all of the territory.

00:17:56.680 Now, look,

00:17:58.320 am I engaging in some wishful thinking?

00:18:01.500 Perhaps.

00:18:02.480 As I said,

00:18:03.760 if my calculation is incorrect,

00:18:06.580 I will acknowledge that.

00:18:08.220 I'll be the first to acknowledge it.

00:18:09.600 I was simply wrong.

00:18:12.180 Let's also remember

00:18:13.280 that I didn't vote for Donald Trump.

00:18:15.860 I voted for Kamala Harris,

00:18:17.220 and it wasn't because I loved her

00:18:21.480 and the liberals exactly.

00:18:23.260 But one of the primary motivations,

00:18:25.880 if not the number one issue,

00:18:27.540 was Ukraine.

00:18:29.260 The MAGA intellects,

00:18:32.180 such as they are,

00:18:33.680 have been demonizing Ukraine.

00:18:35.800 They want to sell it out completely.

00:18:37.420 They would probably write off

00:18:38.800 the entire country to Vladimir Putin

00:18:40.880 if they could,

00:18:42.120 and they make these just inane arguments

00:18:44.460 like, you know,

00:18:45.960 we sent 50 billion in military aid to Ukraine,

00:18:50.280 and that's why we have a homeless problem,

00:18:53.140 or that's why we don't have national health care,

00:18:55.160 or that's why we can't fight

00:18:57.700 the wildfires in Los Angeles,

00:18:59.800 or just obviously incorrect,

00:19:02.500 bad faith arguments like that.

00:19:05.280 I didn't want to have anything to do with them,

00:19:08.260 in fact.

00:19:09.940 So, you know,

00:19:11.520 I have been extremely skeptical of Trump,

00:19:14.420 but I can also call balls and strikes,

00:19:19.120 and I can also assess the situation.

00:19:21.540 Trump moving in this geostrategic global way

00:19:30.000 to secure and empower the American empire

00:19:33.460 leads me to believe

00:19:35.260 that he is much, much more likely

00:19:38.860 to support Ukraine than many of us,

00:19:42.600 and obviously I include myself in that,

00:19:45.420 calculated just months ago.

00:19:48.660 But anyway,

00:19:50.020 we live in interesting times,

00:19:51.340 and we'll see.

00:19:52.380 Just a thought.

RadixJournal - January 08, 2025

Trump, Greenland, Canada, and Ukraine

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