Why Putin Will Escalate
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Summary
In this episode, we discuss the latest in the Ukraine crisis, and why we should be worried about it. We also discuss the reasons why Putin should have been prepared to invade Ukraine and why he failed to do so, and what we can learn from it.
Transcript
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you cannot make the argument that Ukraine's a fake country and it's going to collapse like a
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folding chair in a matter of weeks. So why are we wasting our time with this? Let's start dealing
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with Russia. You know, Russia's the strong power. Ukraine's weak. We're just going to have to deal
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with the strong power. Those arguments are fair, I guess, you know, like theoretically, but I think
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at this point, I mean, all of these, you know, and I even see this in the United States with these
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effectively pro-Russian bloggers who are like, just telling you, like, let me just tell you the
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truth here. This war is going to last days. Even resisting in any way is just going to cause
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bloodshed and pain and heartache. Don't do it. You know, Russia's bad, badass. It's the, maybe even
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the best military, if not the second best. And, you know, all of this kind of bluster. And I feel
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like all of that is, is just ridiculous at this point. You know, I mean, the, the Ukraine has
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obviously been helped tremendously by NATO and the United States, but like, it's, it's also a fighting
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force that has done the fighting and dying. And so you just can't make these arguments anymore. And
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so I, yeah, I mean, particularly now when something like victory is in sight. Now, I ultimately don't
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think that victory is in sight. I, I believe that, you know, first off, in terms of the South and
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Crimea, those places, we haven't seen blitzkrieg victories there. How far there, you know, Ukraine's
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going to push to the East is an interesting question. I mean, I definitely think, you know,
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the, the, when, when, whether you're talking about like military endeavors or sports or whatever,
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it's about piling on and, you know, the nothing succeeds like success. You just keep going. Like
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once you have momentum, it's time to start press, pressing, pressing, pressing. So we'll see like
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if they're going to actually go into the Donbass region. I mean, I think this is a huge issue,
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but from the standpoint of Putin, you know, I, it's reasonable to suggest that at the very beginning,
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he thought that he could just throw a knockout punch and, you know, go in, disrupt the government
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and keep, um, put in his own guys, um, whether he wanted to just, you know, take over the whole
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country. I'm not sure, but he certainly wanted to disrupt things tremendously in his favor and,
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you know, basically turn Ukraine into Belarus. Um, you know, in Belarus and, and Russia are in
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something approaching a union state, but he can't do that. But so that has failed, absolutely failed.
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And it's been embarrassing, but you know, you're in for a penny, you're in for a pound. I mean,
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the notion that he'll now back down and negotiate, I think is just totally wrong. I mean, I think that
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would just be impossible for him to do because he would be out of power immediately. I mean, there's
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no way this would have been viewed as anything other than, and a humiliation. And so where we are now,
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I mean, maybe smartly Putin did describe this as a special military operation and not a war.
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And, um, you know, so he kind of kept his powder dry. Like he, he didn't totally mobilize the country.
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Now, obviously Russia has suffered tremendous losses. And it's interesting when you look at like
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the man to man ratio. So from what I understand, when you're invading a country, you need to have
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three to one resource, um, advantage to successfully invade. This is a, just a rule of thumb and the
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sense that you are, you're, you're, you have the initiative and that, and having the initiative
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striking first is absolutely an advantage. Um, but of course the people you're invading can hunker
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down. They have, um, they can maintain morale. You know, you're defending your own home. They know the
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terrain better than you do, et cetera. So it's a kind of, you need to outnumber them three to one to
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successfully invade a country more or less. And the, um, from what I understand, it was actually a
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one-to-one ratio in terms of Russian soldiers to Ukrainians. And, you know, he's going to need
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full mobilization of the country going forward. I mean, I, unless he's going to basically be humiliated
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and watch NATO expand, he, I don't know, maybe negotiates an ability to hold on to the Donbass
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region or something. Um, that just strikes me as humiliating and he would be out of power almost
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immediately. Um, and the other thing about it is that kind of like when you're in for a penny,
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you're in for a pound, I mean, even if he is kicked out or even executed or something, um,
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the, the sanction regime isn't going away. And like the notion that Europe would just be like,
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Oh, it's okay. We forgive everything. Let's just move on. And, you know, we're going to start buying
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more and more gas from you that I don't think that is in the cards. I just, I don't see that as,
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as plausible. Like this reaction has been so tremendous. You just, you cannot dial that back
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within a decade or two decades. I mean, it is major. There's an interesting article I just read
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this morning on kind of a neo cold war footing, including China, which is, um, this article in
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foreign affairs and an article in the New York times on it, but, um, I, I feel like Putin is now
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forced to engage in full mobilization. And so I think a lot of dangerous things are now very possible
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when he does that. I, I just, it is, I mean, I can be proven wrong, but it is hard to imagine him
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backing down and negotiating a settlement. I just, I cannot see that. Um, and if he did that,
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he would be out of power immediately. So I, I think this is, it might take him a little bit of
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time to kind of get the wheels rolling again, but I see full mobilization and a major counter-attack
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and also like the possibility of tactical nuclear weapons is in the air because that would be an
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absolute strategic advantage for him. First off, he has that in his arsenal. Secondly, Ukraine is not
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a member of NATO there, you know, there, there has been a react, a pro NATO reaction in Western and
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Central Europe and Northern Europe. Of course there has been, but there are like, there are voices
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out there, um, that are basically like, let's fold. Why are we doing this? This is going to be a
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quagmire. Um, we, you know, I'm cold and, you know, we're just giving money to Ukraine. You know,
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you see those voices in the United States, you see those voices in Europe, they are minority voices and,
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um, but they're there and they can become really intense. And, um, so I, I do think that like a
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massive counter strike is in that, that is a strategic advantage that Putin has. So, um, anyway,
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I mean, I think overall, I think that Ukraine has proven itself. It's had tremendous help of course,
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but like, nevertheless, it's proven itself. And, um, but I, I think, yeah, I, I think we might have
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a little bit of a lull here and a kind of, you know, victory celebration. And, um, once we get into
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like the year anniversary, I, I think we might be in a situation where things are much more intense.