In this episode of the podcast, I talk about China and Russia s recent alliance with the United States and Vladimir Putin, and why I don't think it's a disaster. I also talk about why I think China's relationship with Russia is a good one.
00:00:23.520I was kind of reminded of Shue and Lay's comment about, I think, Kissinger, it's all legendary, but Kissinger asked him, what are your opinions on the French Revolution?
00:00:42.820I actually looked that up today because I wanted to write something up on this, but apparently Kissinger might have been asking him about the 1968 revolution in Paris, or revolution in quotes.
00:00:57.520So it actually, the comment is less ponderous in that context, but it's still a very interesting comment, and it gets it, a kind of longer, much longer time frame, one kind of lacking development in a way in the Asian mind.
00:01:14.620And I think it is kind of telling in that degree, even if it is apocryphal.
00:01:19.760But I've heard a lot of these, there seems to be a common thread among people saying that this is a disaster, and how could this be good?
00:01:35.460You know, China and Russia are linking up, and this is going to be bad for America.
00:01:41.600I think it certainly is a change, a move away from a unipolar world that emerged after 1991, and I think it's definitely, at some point, this is going to affect the Chimerica relationship.
00:02:00.960I mean, this came in coincidence with talks about banning TikTok.
00:02:06.520Those are just two random data points, but I think it's significant that they were all happening at the same time.
00:02:13.600And Blinken explicitly said that, you know, he didn't name the consequences, but he said there are going to be major consequences if Beijing begins assisting Russia in its war effort in Ukraine.
00:02:28.760And, you know, ostensibly, you could say Beijing was there to promote their peace plan, which I read, and it's just this completely two-dimensional thing that is almost like a parody of what Asians would come up with, where it just said things like, we need to get away from Cold War thinking.
00:02:48.100That was almost the thing that stood out and vague talk of peace and something, but there's nothing there.
00:02:54.460I think the main thing is that you can imagine Russia becoming a vassal state on a whole host of ways.
00:03:03.580They could start pumping gas, obviously, into China.
00:03:08.360They have huge natural gas reserves, as we all know.
00:03:11.760If they do conquer Ukraine, you've got a breadbasket that can go and feed China.
00:03:18.920China can't exist without imports of agricultural goods.
00:03:22.880That's a bit dubious, but I think that's a real thing.
00:03:28.000And particularly if the Chimerica thing ends, I can see China kind of, you know, soft peddling any criticism of the invasion of Ukraine is basically a way of saying, well, we might do this to Taiwan and you guys, you know, what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
00:03:44.080We're not going to criticize Russia too harshly so that we don't get criticized.
00:04:47.100And you can go from, you know, Moscow on top in alliance with China, then there's a division of China in the Nixon era, and now China's on top of Moscow, and there's a division of the world.
00:05:00.120I mean, all of these things can come and go, and whether they're good or not is irrelevant on some cases.
00:05:07.580They just express the changes in population and economics, et cetera.
00:05:12.600But I ultimately think it's a positive development, because it kind of shores up east and west.
00:05:24.420I don't know why people are terrified about no longer having China under our thumb or something.
00:05:31.740I mean, it's natural that they're going to grow up and leave.
00:05:35.540I think the Chimerica arrangement has been pretty disastrous in many ways.
00:05:43.940And I think a little bit of xenophobia is healthy.
00:05:50.860So I just see all of this as positive, in fact.
00:05:56.820And I don't think it's going to damage America.
00:05:59.540I think in some ways this strong division of the world and clear boundaries are going to actually help us be stronger and have a better sense of ourselves.
00:06:12.720So I don't think this is a good thing for Russia.
00:06:16.780I think just being swallowed by the dragon is going to be a long-term devastating thing for Russia.
00:06:23.540And they fear, you know, regime change by the West or losing the war.
00:06:28.980Well, I would fear total dissolution, like literally being dissolved into a population of over a billion in this Chinese society.
00:06:41.420I would not wish that on my worst enemy.