Words, Words, Words
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Summary
In this episode, we look at the history of midterms and how they ve changed over the years, and what the midterms might tell us about what s to come in 2020 and beyond. We also talk about the impact of the 1994 midterms on the political landscape, and why they may have been a turning point.
Transcript
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I think what we're going to see in two and a half weeks is the ultimate mixed bag of
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a midterm because there are some countervailing forces that I think are going to cancel each
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other out basically. And it's going to be really hard to come up with a firm narrative for the
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midterms. One of the most interesting countervailing forces is just simply the psychological fact
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that midterms usually go well for the party out of power. So this was actually the economist in the
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40 midterm elections to have taken place since 1862. So they're going back to the Civil War.
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The president's party has lost seats in the House of Representatives 36 times. So that is a remarkable
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trend. And then you can even look in the modern political era post-FDR and 11 of the past the
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13 presidents have suffered midterm losses two years after being elected. So there seems to be this
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macro collective psychology to the stuff where two short years after a president is elected,
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there's a hangover, people have buyer's remorse, et cetera. And they knock him out of power,
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where they knock his party out of power rather in the Congress. And so I just think there is this
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natural tendency that really is kind of irrational and is based on collective psychology, the madness of
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crowds, you could say, that is pointing towards a GOP victory. And this certainly played a major role
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in 2018 where we saw a huge wave election, one that was obscured a bit by the Senate, but was still
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real and was a wave election very much like 2006, 2010, 1994, et cetera. And in some ways, even more powerful.
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So there is this other factor that comes into play, which is the turning point or the inflection point
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or the kind of major event where you might even be seeing a kind of realignment take place.
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So in 1992, Bill Clinton won 75% of the non-college educated white vote. And by 2016, that had reversed.
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Trump was winning 75% of that vote. And 1994, even though this trend, this like general realignment
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was happening for a long time, it was even happening in the 70s. And you could certainly see it in the 1980s.
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But by 1994, we just had this polarization where you had
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And we'll shortly get to a point where Clinton and Al Gore will lose their home states in the presidential election,
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which was pretty unimaginable in previous times. And now is just certain, you know,
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in a presidential election, Mississippi is going to be red. There's no question about it.
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It's not debatable, et cetera. And 1994 kind of crystallized that.
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In 2002, the GOP actually won a resounding victory and they increased their dominance.
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Whereas if you had looked at that kind of like midterm trend, you would say, ah, that 2002,
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George W. Bush won in 2000. It was actually a hotly contested election.
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This will be a time for a shift. But it wasn't a shift because it was pre-Iraq war and post 9-11
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enthusiasm and terror war mania. There was actually a famous case of a man, I'm forgetting his name at
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the moment, but he was a Southern Democrat and he had like lost multiple limbs in Vietnam.
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And he was accused of not being a patriot and being on team Osama bin Laden when he lost.
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Pretty remarkable. It was also the age of freedom for eyes and all that kind of stuff.
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By 2006, the public opinion on the Iraq war had shifted dramatically and Bush kind of had his
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comeuppance then. His, I think it was called the thumping where he lost big in the house,
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Nancy Pelosi took over, et cetera. Nancy Pelosi also immediately said that she would not impeach
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George W. Bush. Again. So that was a kind of, so 94 was a kind of inflection point, turning point. It
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solidified realignment. And I think 2006 was kind of an inflection point in the post 9-11 era.
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Uh, 2018 was definitely an inflection point in terms of the, uh, anti-Trump coalition, particularly
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suburban whites. So college educated whites going over to the democratic party, which they did,
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uh, to a huge degree. Um, and so, you know, you could say that 2022 might be something similar.
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It might be a kind of inflection point macro election when it comes to Roe v. Wade. Roe v. Wade is
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popular. It is more popular than it was just six months ago. Uh, you could make the argument that
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that's just, there's going to be a shift, even if, you know, and just, just out of pure hatred of
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it. It's not like you, you elect congressmen and they can reverse the Supreme court decision, but
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they could codify Roe v. Wade, of course, but it's a, just a kind of macro trend maybe does indicate
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some kind of realignment, this ongoing realignment, which I've been talking about for a long time,
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which is actually the exit that is whites moving to the democratic party, moving away from the
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so-called populist party of Trump. Um, and the Democrats achieving a kind of high, low coalition
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of high IQ whites, low IQ blacks in a coalition that is against the midwit IQ whites and Hispanics.
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I think that is the new coalition as we understand it. And I think that will actually last a long time
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and it's going to be major and all of the kind of majority strategy stuff and sailor strategy.
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I think that is, um, increasingly going away. Um, there is not going to be a white in gathering
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in the GOP as Sam Francis wanted and prophesied. Uh, so I do think that's a factor. Although I,
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I also think that the Democrats have blown it a bit here. Um, they haven't, I don't see the urgency
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and, you know, for instance, I've told this anecdote before, so I, you guys might be getting
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tired of it, but I'll tell it again. Um, so last good Friday, I was actually meeting, uh, someone
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for dinner down in Kalispell and, um, which is, you know, if, if Whitefish is a resort town,
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little snobby, maybe a little hippie as well. Kalispell is definitely, you know, it's nice of course,
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but it's definitely a blue collar place. And I was driving down there and so it was good Friday
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and maybe I was being a bit sinful, you know, eating, drinking cocktails on Good Friday,
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but we'll put that aside. We'll put my, the fate of my soul aside from them. And, um,
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there were this, there's this massive rig that was driving down there and it, there was a pirate flag
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on the back of it and it was honking its horn really loudly and rubbing its engine. And I was just
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thinking like, what is going on? What is this? And then as I got down to Kalispell to park,
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there were this car that had a Confederate flag and a Trump flag and an American flag.
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And it was doing wheelies. So it was like, um, or donuts rather. So it was slamming on the brakes
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and slamming on the accelerator at the same time. And so basically, you know, it was burning rubber,
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basically smoke was flying up in the air and then the, the, the light turned green and it like sped
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down the road. There's all of this honking. And I was just thinking, what in the hell is this?
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And I, I turned to this woman who was a, uh, who, she was just standing next to me. She was a,
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you know, fairly nice looking woman. And I was like, what is going on? I was like,
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is this about good Friday? She was like, it's the Trump people. And she was obviously annoyed. So
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every Friday for effectively no reason, they go out and just raise hell on behalf of Trump.
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And I think even the fact that they were doing this on good Friday might be somewhat significant
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in the sense that they were mostly secular, but it was a class based
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populist revival effectively about nothing about no real issue other than maybe the 20 to 20 election
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or Donald Trump himself, or just let's go, Brandon, you know, we hate liberals.
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And as I was walking out a couple hours later, walking out for dinner and this car pulled up
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and a guy got out and he just yelled at me. He said,
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Fuck, fuck, fuck Joe Biden. Fuck the liberals. And he got back in his car and drove back.
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And I was just thinking, what has just happened? And I don't think at all he knew who I was.
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Um, I, I, I, I think he just saw me as a guy who was fairly well-dressed and thus must be liberal.
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And thus it reveals a kind of class aspect to this. I was wearing, you know, a hip leather jacket and
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some jeans and whatever. Well, it's not like I was wearing a tuxedo or anything, but I, I was dressed
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differently than the kind of working class wear out here, which I guess is like, what is it called?
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Carnhart or something. I see a lot of that. Anyway, um, it's a secular class based
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revolt. So in the primary season in Kansas, they put abortion on the ballot and they basically
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protected it, generally speaking. And they're that one by in a landslide and it outperformed
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democratic candidates who are running. So that should also kind of tell you something that there is,
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there is some kind of force that might be a macro trend and towards realignment, realignment that's out
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there. Um, but I, I'm wondering whether it's going to be enough. The other interesting factor
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is that you have some major Republicans who are underperforming Donald Trump's 2020 score.
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And these are actually the teal Republicans, this, you know, the new wave of populism,
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the smart populist. And so I'm thinking of J.D. Vance and Blake Masters in particular. So
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Arizona was 50, 50, more or less. And Masters is pretty significantly underperforming the Democratic,
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the Democrat Mark Kelly, who is a kind of centrist candidate, is also a good candidate.
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J.D. Vance is also apparently leading, although I have seen polls that show Tim Ryan leading.
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Tim Ryan is a very centrist Republican, excuse me, Democrat. Um, and that's actually his brand.
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Uh, so it's not like he's running against AOC or something, but nevertheless, Trump won Ohio by more
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than 55% and J.D. Vance might very well lose. So you could, and you can see a similar story in
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Pennsylvania. OZ is a weird candidate. OZ has been five points behind, although from everything I've
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heard, I checked under this morning, OZ is still losing, but it is a lot closer. So basically there
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are these countervailing forces and I don't know which one is going to overwhelm the other. Um, there's the
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midterm force, this weird collective psychology. There is the, um, middle to upper class white realignment
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and a kind of, uh, uh, you know, um, uh, enthusiasm based on Roe v Wade that's out there. There is still
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a kind of burgeoning class dynamic of Trump supporters that's out there. Uh, there is also the factor of
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redistricting and that makes it to the point where the Democrats really have to win about 55,
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to 57% of the vote to make gains in the house. And I'm not sure they're going to, that is the total
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vote spread out nationally spread out as articulated in these districts. Uh, because basically the way we
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do elections, the United States just favors rural voters. I mean, in the Senate, it's almost ridiculous,
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the degree to which Wyoming is favored over Canada. They both have two senators. Wyoming has 500,000
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people. Um, California, did I say Canada? California has 60 million. It's the size of Germany.
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So I just feel like there are these countervailing forces. It's very difficult to predict it. And I
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think we're just going to end up in this weird mixed bag. I kind of want to make the call that
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Democrats are actually going to take both the house and the Senate, but looking at the numbers,
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I think it's hard to really justify that. And so I am going to go with what I think is pretty much a
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consensus opinion, which is that the Republicans are going to take the house. I think they're going
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to take it by a small amount. And I think the Democrats are going to like cling onto power in the
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Senate. It will be 50, 50 again. If they get a 52, that would be considered a victory. I think it is just
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going to be this mixed bag or wash and both sides are going to claim victory. Both sides are going to see
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it as a loss. That is my prediction at this point, but in a weird way are not so weird, but I do think it's
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worse for Republicans because it's just set up for them to have a roaring victory. And if they can't
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achieve that, I think that is going to be, that is going to tell them something important or tell us
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something important, whether they learned their lessons. Unlikely.