Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 08, 2020


Episode 1021 Scott Adams： Lying Statistics, Trump Poll Numbers Plummet, Democrat Strategy Debacle, Harris Versus Warren, BLM


Episode Stats

Length

53 minutes

Words per Minute

143.00906

Word Count

7,710

Sentence Count

524

Misogynist Sentences

13

Hate Speech Sentences

25


Summary

Dr. Funkjuice celebrates his birthday and talks about racism in the police, and how we should just give up on trying to calculate anything because we always do it wrong, or if we do it right, the other side doesn t believe it.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, it's time. Dr. Funkjuice, good to see you. Always a pleasure.
00:00:19.780 Well, everybody, what a great day today is. What a great day. 63 years ago today,
00:00:28.540 I came out of my mother's body. So today's my birthday. Yay. Shall we celebrate with a
00:00:37.260 simultaneous sip? I think that would be in order. And all you need to do to participate
00:00:42.920 is find yourself a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or flask,
00:00:49.040 a vessel of any kind. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit
00:00:58.360 of the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the pandemic, including
00:01:02.780 racism, it'll even make your birthday better. But it's my birthday, not yours. So it might
00:01:07.960 not help you at all. To the simultaneous sip. Go.
00:01:12.380 Happy birthday also to Kanye West and to JFK, people who shared my birthday. All right. But
00:01:28.560 enough about me. Let's talk about the world. Is the world still there? All right. Here's
00:01:36.100 some things for you to think about. 90% of the people who are killed by police are men. Is
00:01:44.660 that proof of sexism? Go. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Now, I just put that out there to cause
00:01:54.020 trouble. Why is it only men who are getting killed by police? It's proof of sexism, isn't
00:02:01.780 it? Now, when you say, uh, Scott, um, no, because the men are committing the crimes, I say to
00:02:09.780 you, how sexist of you to say that. I just put that out there to cause trouble. Here's
00:02:15.700 some more trouble-causing statistics. Have you noticed that we humans can't calculate anything
00:02:24.180 correctly? We can't calculate anything correctly. We don't know how many people are going to die
00:02:30.520 from the virus. We don't know how many people died from the regular flu. We don't know what
00:02:35.600 the unemployment rate really is, because even that got revised. So that got revised up from
00:02:40.700 what we thought was great, great news to just pretty good news. The unemployment got corrected
00:02:47.280 up to 16.3%. And black unemployment is the highest in more than 10 years, according to Kamala Harris.
00:02:55.240 And Latino unemployment is 17.6%. Yikes. So as Kamala Harris is saying, that's nothing to celebrate
00:03:05.340 about. But of course, nobody is celebrating the absolute number. Do you think anybody was
00:03:12.280 celebrating the absolute number? No, I think they were celebrating the change. I think there was
00:03:19.100 celebration for the celebration for the direction, celebration for the hoped for a future. But it's
00:03:26.420 one more example of how we humans, we should just give up on numbers. We should just give up on trying
00:03:34.400 to calculate anything, because we always do it wrong. Or if we do it right, the other side doesn't believe
00:03:40.660 it. It just doesn't make any difference if you've got good numbers or bad. Here's some more numbers.
00:03:46.220 So according to Rasmussen, and I believe that's coming out any moment now, back in 2016, this was the
00:03:59.960 opinion. All right. So in 2016, 38% of voters thought most black Americans were treated unfairly by the
00:04:08.420 police. So it was 38% in 2016. Today, it's 51%. It went from 38% thought black Americans were treated
00:04:19.180 unfairly by the police to 51% during Trump's administration. What changed? What changed?
00:04:29.880 Was it the data? Did the data change? No, I'll bet not. I mean, not in three years, right? I don't think
00:04:40.680 the data changed. I think what changed was the persuasion. What you saw on television, who was the
00:04:48.660 president? You know, how many stories were run of a certain type? What did social media do? So without
00:04:56.000 the data changing at all, I mean, I haven't even looked at the data, but I don't think it got worse
00:05:02.800 between 2016 and 2019, did it? Or 2020? It didn't get worse. I mean, if it did, it's like some small
00:05:12.460 amount, but basically it's the same. But our opinion of it completely changed. So do you think opinions
00:05:19.900 change because of data? No. No, the data stayed the same, and the opinions wildly changed because of
00:05:29.660 persuasion. So if you don't see that the data didn't make any difference, and the persuasion made all the
00:05:36.420 difference, you're watching the wrong world. So let's talk about some more fun stuff. So I've told you
00:05:49.040 before that fear is the primary persuasive force. There is nothing more persuasive, period, than fear
00:06:00.580 because fear is the top of your concern stack. If you're literally afraid at the moment, you're going
00:06:07.700 to take care of that first. You won't even eat first if you're afraid. First, you take care of afraid,
00:06:15.420 go hide, protect yourself, do what you need to do, and then you eat. So there's nothing that competes
00:06:23.000 even close to fear as a primary persuasive variable. And here's what the Democrats are doing for their
00:06:32.060 campaign strategy. They're calling for defunding the police at exactly the same time other Democrats,
00:06:42.460 Democrats. And I say that more jokingly, because I'm just, you know, I'm doing that thing that all
00:06:48.360 pundits do. I act like the 1% of the bad characters represent the whole. Obviously, the looters do not
00:06:57.620 represent Democrats. Can we agree? Looters are not representative of Democrats. Even if you think it,
00:07:06.740 even if you think that's true for fun, it's not true mathematically. But it is nonetheless true
00:07:13.900 that in a political season, if the Democrats are producing two things simultaneously, it's not a
00:07:20.420 good look. One of the things they're producing is a very powerful and maybe successful call to defund
00:07:29.480 the police. So that's one thing they're doing. But other people who will be associated with the
00:07:35.720 Democrats, because they lean in that direction, even if they're not registered Democrats,
00:07:40.120 even if they're not voting, is the people doing the violence on videos. So we have all this video
00:07:47.360 of what happens when the police are not there, which is, if I can be blunt, white people being killed by
00:07:54.780 black people. I'm not saying that that describes the world. I'm saying it describes these selective
00:08:01.400 little videos that are running nonstop because those are the anecdotes we're getting. So if you're
00:08:08.120 doing two things simultaneously, the Democrats, saying let's defund the police, while all of the
00:08:15.620 visual persuasion, what do I tell you about visual persuasion? It overwhelms other kinds of persuasions
00:08:24.180 that evolve your senses. It's not as strong as fear, but the visual can be part of the fear
00:08:30.000 persuasion. But the fact that it's visual, it's on video, and it's horrible, and you're seeing people
00:08:38.460 just being killed by rioters and looters breaking store windows, you couldn't have a weaker strategy
00:08:45.900 going into the election. In fact, if you were to sit down and try to design on paper the worst
00:08:52.540 campaign strategy, it would be defund the police while simultaneously showing nonstop images of what
00:09:01.820 happens when the police are not standing right there. I don't know that that could be worse from
00:09:08.480 their side. Am I wrong? Highest form of persuasion, and they're creating a situation to scare you
00:09:18.820 to death. Now, if you haven't seen this clip, I just tweeted it, you have to watch it just for the
00:09:26.180 reaction. It's a CNN clip in which Alison Camerato is interviewing somebody named Bender, who is in
00:09:37.280 favor of defunding the police. And Alison Camerato asked this question, which I think is on all of your
00:09:44.760 minds. And here's the question. What if in the middle of the night, my home is broken into? Who do
00:09:51.440 I call? Now, here's what you need to watch in that question. Alison Camerato is a CNN, what's the right
00:10:00.920 word? Of course, host, whatever is the right word for that. Host, I think. And the way she words the
00:10:09.740 question is personal. That's important. All right? Because you're trying to understand what she's
00:10:16.760 thinking as well as what she's saying. We can't read minds, but how we receive the communication
00:10:23.300 makes you think that they're thinking a certain way, even if you're wrong. So she puts it in a
00:10:29.840 personal form of a question. What if in the middle of the night, my home is broken into? All right? This is
00:10:37.900 very important. She's putting herself in the movie. She's not saying, what if something happens to
00:10:43.040 somebody, and somebody needs to do something? No. Alison Camerato said, what if my home is broken
00:10:51.860 into? She put herself in the movie. Now watch the response. And Bender said, yes, I hear that loud and
00:11:01.480 clear from a lot of my neighbors. And I know, and myself too, and I know that that comes from a place
00:11:09.020 of privilege. So that was the moment that Democrats lost CNN. They lost CNN. Because you could watch,
00:11:25.660 you had to see the look on Camerato's face. Now again, you can't really tell what people are thinking
00:11:34.140 by a look on their face. But I'll tell you the impression I got. Because remember, when I talk
00:11:40.400 about persuasion, it's not about what's right. It's what impression did you get? And the impression
00:11:46.420 I got was Alison Camerato saying, thinking, that doesn't work for me. That doesn't work for me.
00:11:56.660 That's what I saw in her face. Again, I warn you, you can't read other people's minds. She may have
00:12:02.520 had a completely different thought. But that's how I received it. It looked like CNN was lost
00:12:08.580 on that day. Because seriously, what CNN host with a good income is going to say,
00:12:16.820 yeah, that's a good idea. If somebody is trying to break in my front door that there's nobody to call.
00:12:24.000 There's nobody on CNN. Not even Don Lemon is going to get behind that. If you've lost Don Lemon,
00:12:33.060 well, you've lost the election. Now, of course, Don Lemon is not going to side with having more
00:12:42.500 police. But I don't think even he could say directly and on camera, you know, this would be a
00:12:48.680 better world if somebody is breaking into my house and I don't have anybody to call. That would be an
00:12:53.060 upgrade. I don't think he's going to say that. So I don't know how they can recover from that. But
00:13:01.460 despite all that, it turns out that the latest poll numbers on Trump versus Biden is that Biden is
00:13:10.800 just blowing him away. So the difference between Biden and Trump and the national polls just widened.
00:13:18.280 It widened. Trump just had the best week of his life and the polls widened. Now, when I say it's the
00:13:26.200 best week of his life, I don't mean that people realize that. I'm just saying I realize it because
00:13:32.540 he did get us through the pandemic. And I think he he called the timing about right. Pushing for the
00:13:38.980 opening looks like exactly the right thing. He was criticized for it. Being tough on China looks
00:13:46.340 smarter every day. The economy will probably pick up and Trump is very directly involved in at least the
00:13:54.780 psychology of that. I don't think Trump's ever had a better week. But I also don't think it
00:14:00.680 registered that way to everybody. I'm not sure that intellectually, people realize what a good week
00:14:06.540 this was. Now, when I say a good week, that includes the looting. Because although the president did not
00:14:14.240 do something directly to stop the looting, think about the fact that he brought in the National Guard
00:14:20.160 and it kind of stopped at the same time. Am I wrong that the looting kind of went from a lot to not
00:14:27.880 too much immediately upon the National Guard showing up? I think that's true. I mean, it feels true,
00:14:35.100 even if it's not. And if we're talking about persuasion, what feels true is right. So I think the
00:14:40.940 president actually had one of the highest, almost borders ungifted, honestly, performances, with the
00:14:51.580 exception, just so you know, that I'm not just praising Trump for everything. I think they
00:14:58.260 completely blew the messaging on a lot of this stuff. Everything from the pandemic messaging to the
00:15:04.940 the protester, the George Floyd stuff, I don't think the messaging was good. So I'm not just
00:15:11.080 complimenting everything he does just mindlessly. I'm telling you that if you're watching,
00:15:16.300 if you're watching looting on television, and your choices are the pro law and order guy, or the
00:15:23.000 who knows what guy, the pro law and order guy is just going to get a bump from watching crime on TV.
00:15:30.260 That has nothing to do with his performance. He's just had to exist and be that guy. And it's going
00:15:35.760 to help him. Likewise, the economy going up will help Trump. Likewise, you know, the coronavirus just
00:15:43.920 getting in our rearview mirror, at least a little bit will help him. So I think he had his strongest
00:15:48.780 week, but his poll numbers are the weakest. And I have, I have speculated that this is the biggest
00:15:56.580 practical joke in the history of politics, that Republicans are literally lying to pollsters
00:16:03.180 in a massive numbers. I feel that's true. I can't prove it. It's just an instinct. But I feel it's
00:16:12.060 true. I also feel like it's a long time until election day. And I don't know that polls are telling
00:16:19.240 us as much today as, as they should, because, you know, they're pretty, pretty frothy at this point.
00:16:27.960 All right. So let's talk about those protesters washing the feet of Black Lives Matter leaders. And I
00:16:37.240 guess police were washing the feet of black religious leaders as well. Not all the police, not all the
00:16:44.980 protesters, obviously. But here was my take on that. It's pretty good persuasion. Because you can't look
00:16:50.580 away, it gets your attention. And it shakes the box. Like everything that you think about people and power
00:16:58.780 and racism and who thinks what and does what, this just shakes it all up. It just makes you think, what? And it
00:17:07.540 gets you mad or excited or you put yourself in the place. But the trick of this is, if you have enough
00:17:13.700 people, there's always somebody who's willing to do anything. If you have a million people, you can
00:17:18.740 get somebody out of the million people to do literally anything. You can get them to, you do
00:17:25.560 harm to themselves, just anything, if you have enough people. So when you're watching some small
00:17:30.740 number of people do something that you wouldn't do, it doesn't mean anything. It just means that
00:17:36.400 you're seeing a small number of people do something you wouldn't do. That's it. So it doesn't have any
00:17:40.960 meaning beyond the fact that it really shakes up your head. So persuasion-wise, I give it an A+.
00:17:46.680 Because the madder or the more upset you are about it, the better it works. That is its power. Its
00:17:55.900 power is that it upsets you. So if I'm just looking at it from a persuasion as a technique, A+.
00:18:05.760 Yeah, if it disgusted you, if it angered you, if you couldn't turn away, that's what makes it work.
00:18:13.220 So I wouldn't worry about it becoming a trend. You don't have to worry about it being a trend.
00:18:21.480 It's never going to be guaranteed. It'll never be required. It'll always be optional. So this is
00:18:28.540 the power that the media has. They can take something that's unusual and give it a lot of
00:18:34.620 attention until you think it's some kind of a normal thing or it's the beginning of a trend or
00:18:39.700 it's happening everywhere. It's the smallest little thing that some very unique people could do but you
00:18:48.080 couldn't do. Nobody's going to ask you to do it. It just doesn't matter. But persuasion-wise,
00:18:53.140 it was strong. I swear to God, almost all of our problems in society are because we can't
00:19:02.340 calculate percentages right. Am I wrong about that? If we could calculate percentages, meaning
00:19:10.320 that we knew the right numerator and the right denominator, if we could always get that right
00:19:16.840 and then calculate it right and know which one is the one that matters, I don't think we'd
00:19:21.500 have nearly as many problems in the world. It's like we can't calculate anything. Right. I'll give
00:19:27.160 you some specifics on that. For example, a guy who follows me on Twitter, which is no way to
00:19:40.260 describe a person because that's the least important part of his personality is following me on Twitter,
00:19:45.620 but I don't know anything else about him. So other than his name is Leonidas Johnson. He may or may
00:19:52.400 not be watching this Periscope and he's African-American, which you need to know for the purpose of the
00:19:57.660 story. And he tweeted this and I presume he leans conservative. He says, for every 10,000 black
00:20:06.680 people arrested for violent crimes, three are killed. For every 10,000 white people arrested for violent
00:20:13.980 crime, four are killed. And then Leonidas goes on. He says, I'm going to keep tweeting this until
00:20:21.100 someone can explain to me how this is possible if there is truly pervasive racial bias in policing.
00:20:29.340 So, so he's a black man. So he can tweet this. Do you know what I can't do?
00:20:36.320 Tweet that. I can't tweet that. I don't have, I don't have freedom of speech in a practical sense.
00:20:47.980 I have freedom of speech in a legal sense. I can say anything I want, but in a practical sense,
00:20:53.440 my life would just be worse if I had been the one who tweeted this, but because Leonidas is black,
00:21:00.800 he can tweet it and then I can retweet it and I'm okay. So I did that. But I certainly don't have
00:21:07.340 freedom of speech the way black people do. Let me just say that directly. I have less freedom of
00:21:14.340 speech than black people. Would you agree? Is that, is that even controversial? Because it's true
00:21:21.540 that black people can say more things in public with less repercussions than I can. It's not even
00:21:28.260 close really. And now regardless of whether I'm right or wrong, which is a separate question,
00:21:34.460 there, there are just whole classes of things, including data. I wouldn't even be able to talk
00:21:40.740 about data in public. Think about that, that I can't talk about data in public. Now I've told you
00:21:50.320 before that one of my advantages is that I have, I wasn't going to swear today. So I'll give you the PG
00:21:57.140 version, uh, that I have F you money, meaning that the worst thing that could happen to me as I
00:22:04.320 retire and live on the money I already made. But because I'm still, you know, in the workforce and I
00:22:13.040 would still like to have an actual job. I like to be productive. I like to, I like to create things
00:22:19.460 that people want and pay for. And I would like to be paid for those things because it just works better
00:22:24.500 that way. So I'm finding that I'm becoming, um, increasingly uncancellable. If you have F you
00:22:34.020 money, you're uncancellable. But if you also care about your ongoing career, you're not, you're not
00:22:41.200 completely uncancellable because I'd still like to be a cartoonist. I'd still like to be able to come
00:22:47.440 on video and talk to you. I still like people to buy my books. So I'm not completely uncancellable,
00:22:53.900 but I'm getting closer because I always talk to you about locals, the new platform, uh, which I've
00:23:01.360 joined now locals is a subscription platform. So, and it's growing. So it's becoming a larger percentage
00:23:08.940 of my overall income at the moment. It's still the minority part of my overall income, but it's growing
00:23:16.020 pretty quickly when it reaches a point where it's competitive with my income in general, meaning
00:23:22.160 that even if I lost everything else, I would still have a real job. It would just be limited to locals,
00:23:28.640 which would be fine if that was a big enough community. And I'm becoming increasingly uncancellable.
00:23:36.780 And I don't know what that does because I haven't been there before. I've never been in a place where I
00:23:44.280 not only have F you money, but I have an F you job. I've never had that before. I've only had the
00:23:53.300 money, not a job that was invulnerable. And I'm getting close to that. I'm getting closer and closer
00:23:59.960 to being actually invulnerable. And I'm wondering if at some point I would have freedom of speech.
00:24:06.460 I'm getting close. And it's kind of exciting because I would like to be able to have freedom
00:24:11.920 of speech the way black Americans do, the way women do. Women less than black Americans. But
00:24:18.220 someday, God willing, I will have freedom of speech. I don't know if that will make me speak
00:24:27.040 any differently. I actually don't. But it's kind of exciting. I got real excited the other day when I
00:24:32.580 thought, hey, are you kidding me? I could actually tweet some data that was actually just useful and
00:24:42.440 true. I could just tweet true data and I don't have to lose my career. Could be good. Could be good.
00:24:52.760 Anyway, in response to Leonidas' tweet, there was, of course, lots of interaction on it. And he went into
00:24:59.380 some detail in the thread, which I would recommend to you. And so look for it in my Twitter thread. I
00:25:05.080 just tweeted it this morning. So, all right. So starting with the claim that for every 10,000 black
00:25:10.540 people arrested for violent crimes. Now, this is the key phrase here, violent crimes, three are killed.
00:25:17.000 For every 10,000 white people arrested for, again, violent crimes, four are killed. Now, of course,
00:25:23.600 the big question mark is, well, what about nonviolent crimes? What about all the people getting
00:25:29.180 hassled and, I don't know, abused, beat up, humiliated, all those other bad things for nonviolent crimes?
00:25:37.980 What about all that? I mean, that's got to be part of the equation, doesn't it? And so I don't know
00:25:43.400 the answer to that. But I tweeted back that which group gets stopped and hassled the most by police.
00:25:52.700 Because let's say these statistics are true, and let's take out the violent crime. Let's say that it was
00:25:58.660 true that statistically, slightly more white people are killed, not even slightly, but more white
00:26:06.400 people are killed by police than black people. But what if black people encounter the police 10 times
00:26:14.820 more? What if there's just more police presence in black communities, because they tend, at least in
00:26:21.100 the urban areas, they're going to be lower income. More crime comes with lower income, so there's going
00:26:26.340 to be more police. So how do you factor that in? So is it the whole story that it's the percentage of
00:26:34.340 people arrested for violent crimes? It's not really the whole story, because you have to look at, you
00:26:40.240 know, who's getting stopped and why. Is there a racial component to that? And most Americans apparently
00:26:46.100 think there is a racial component to that. And it would be hard to debate. I mean, it's hard to argue
00:26:52.840 that there's not. Who could really argue that? I would think that race has a big impact on who gets
00:26:59.440 stopped. Now, but which doesn't mean that the people doing the stopping are racist, because
00:27:06.740 apparently there's not much difference between how black police officers and white police officers treat
00:27:12.660 anybody. If black and white police officers are basically the same in how they treat people,
00:27:20.060 it's kind of hard to find the racial component when you take that into consideration.
00:27:25.760 But what Leonidas argued in response to other people, you know, questioning the totality of the
00:27:34.060 stuff, is that Leonidas makes a really good rational point. And it goes like this, that people being
00:27:43.200 stopped for violent crimes is not the whole story. So he'd be in complete agreement that he's taking a
00:27:50.400 slice of the whole story. But he says quite reasonably, that if this racial, if the racial bias was what
00:28:00.960 people say it is, this is exactly where it would show up the strongest. I don't know that that's
00:28:08.060 true. I also don't know that statistics are accurate. Because where does statistics come from? The police,
00:28:15.140 right? So is it possible that the police aren't good at accurately, you know, documenting who got killed
00:28:23.980 for what? Maybe? I mean, that wouldn't be surprising. But it's an interesting point.
00:28:31.080 Leonidas says that it would show up there, and it doesn't.
00:28:36.740 Is that persuasive to you? I wouldn't say it's completely persuasive. But I would say it's exactly
00:28:44.180 the right question. Isn't it? It's exactly the right question. Because we should understand that.
00:28:49.680 No matter what the answer is, even if the answer is the data was bad, I'd like to understand that
00:28:54.940 for sure. All right.
00:29:00.880 Van Jones tweeted
00:29:02.300 today that women leaders globally kicked
00:29:06.340 hashtag coronavirus in the ass.
00:29:09.480 Male leaders across the board blew it.
00:29:12.780 Hashtag fax, hashtag pandemic,
00:29:15.780 etc. And then he linked to a story on that.
00:29:18.160 Now,
00:29:20.140 was that helpful? To say that women leaders
00:29:23.780 did a good job and male leaders
00:29:25.640 did not? Because
00:29:27.560 I don't feel like what we needed was more
00:29:29.840 sexism. Because I'm pretty
00:29:31.960 sure that you can't document
00:29:33.400 that their gender is what made them
00:29:35.700 more successful.
00:29:37.320 One of the successful female leaders
00:29:39.500 was New Zealand.
00:29:42.860 I don't want
00:29:43.700 to be unkind to New Zealand,
00:29:45.920 and I don't want to be unkind
00:29:47.500 to the leader, who's a woman,
00:29:49.740 who apparently is
00:29:51.300 leading a country that
00:29:52.720 claims to have
00:29:53.700 actually eliminated
00:29:55.400 coronavirus.
00:29:56.580 That's pretty good.
00:29:58.180 But it needs to be said,
00:30:00.180 it's an island.
00:30:02.580 It's an island.
00:30:04.540 And
00:30:05.180 it could be
00:30:06.620 that once again,
00:30:08.980 humans are bad
00:30:09.840 at calculating
00:30:10.460 percentages.
00:30:15.820 And
00:30:16.380 do you think it's
00:30:19.300 fair or accurate
00:30:20.640 or helpful
00:30:21.220 to say that women
00:30:22.220 beat the coronavirus
00:30:23.660 but male leaders
00:30:24.860 blew it?
00:30:25.820 To me,
00:30:26.760 that feels like
00:30:27.820 just sexism.
00:30:29.980 Because
00:30:30.540 I don't think you can
00:30:32.560 make that claim
00:30:33.300 based on the data.
00:30:34.220 Now,
00:30:36.120 here's what's
00:30:36.700 ironic about this.
00:30:38.360 Literally the day before,
00:30:39.760 I was thinking to myself,
00:30:41.160 who's the only person
00:30:42.540 who would have
00:30:44.180 enough credibility
00:30:45.060 to fix the,
00:30:47.280 you know,
00:30:47.680 to do something
00:30:48.440 constructive
00:30:49.020 about the protests
00:30:50.500 and race relations
00:30:52.600 in this country
00:30:53.260 and maybe come up
00:30:54.140 with something practical
00:30:55.060 that we could work on.
00:30:56.840 You know,
00:30:57.020 come up with some
00:30:57.700 specific proposals
00:30:58.820 we could toss around
00:31:00.640 and see what we can do.
00:31:02.060 And I thought,
00:31:02.720 well,
00:31:02.900 Van Jones.
00:31:03.480 Van Jones is probably
00:31:05.780 one of the few people
00:31:06.900 in the world
00:31:07.500 who can,
00:31:09.800 well,
00:31:10.080 he's bilingual,
00:31:11.920 meaning that he can
00:31:12.800 talk to black people,
00:31:13.840 he can talk to white people
00:31:14.860 and he knows what they mean.
00:31:16.300 I don't know
00:31:17.140 how many people
00:31:17.780 there are
00:31:18.160 in the whole world
00:31:19.400 who have credibility,
00:31:22.160 ability to communicate,
00:31:24.520 have the interest,
00:31:25.680 have the aptitude,
00:31:27.500 the history,
00:31:28.560 the history of success,
00:31:30.360 especially with
00:31:31.160 prison reform.
00:31:32.580 I mean,
00:31:33.600 really,
00:31:34.120 come up with
00:31:34.780 one other person
00:31:36.360 on the planet
00:31:37.140 who would be
00:31:38.740 more perfect
00:31:39.400 for being in the middle
00:31:40.740 of this
00:31:41.100 and getting it fixed.
00:31:42.460 Now,
00:31:42.920 in the comments,
00:31:43.560 somebody's saying Kanye.
00:31:45.000 Kanye is a force
00:31:46.400 of nature
00:31:46.920 and one of the most
00:31:48.160 productive ones
00:31:50.200 you'll ever see
00:31:51.220 in lots of ways,
00:31:52.900 socially as well as
00:31:54.000 economically productive.
00:31:55.240 but I don't know
00:31:57.440 that Kanye
00:31:58.180 is the right one
00:31:59.140 to dig in
00:31:59.920 and get into
00:32:00.580 some details
00:32:01.360 about how to fix
00:32:02.760 policing.
00:32:04.220 I see Kanye
00:32:05.580 as more of a,
00:32:06.700 almost a spiritual
00:32:08.900 kind of a leader,
00:32:10.600 not a,
00:32:12.080 you know,
00:32:12.500 nuts and bolts,
00:32:13.660 here's my policy
00:32:14.600 kind of a leader.
00:32:16.180 And if you want
00:32:17.160 to get down
00:32:17.620 into some real
00:32:18.620 practical stuff,
00:32:20.740 I'm thinking
00:32:21.540 Van Jones.
00:32:23.120 I'm thinking
00:32:23.880 Van Jones would be
00:32:25.220 the best choice
00:32:26.720 I can think of.
00:32:28.220 Can you think
00:32:28.780 of a better one?
00:32:31.540 I'm looking at
00:32:32.380 your comments
00:32:32.860 to see if anybody
00:32:33.560 suggests anybody.
00:32:35.420 Larry Elder
00:32:36.220 would be too
00:32:36.960 associated with
00:32:37.940 the right.
00:32:39.740 You really need
00:32:40.780 somebody who is
00:32:41.440 more associated
00:32:42.320 with the left
00:32:43.240 but knows how
00:32:44.840 to work with
00:32:45.420 the right.
00:32:46.060 And it really
00:32:46.580 just sort of
00:32:47.460 comes down to
00:32:48.360 Van Jones.
00:32:50.500 So I hope
00:32:50.860 he gets in
00:32:51.280 the game.
00:32:52.280 But my
00:32:52.940 friendly advice
00:32:54.020 with affection
00:32:54.920 to Van Jones
00:32:56.560 because I think
00:32:57.560 he's one of the
00:32:58.040 most productive
00:32:58.600 people in the
00:33:00.500 country right now.
00:33:03.620 I don't think
00:33:04.600 the sexism
00:33:05.160 helps us.
00:33:05.880 We probably
00:33:06.520 didn't need that.
00:33:07.940 Alright,
00:33:08.260 here's my
00:33:09.020 favorite story
00:33:09.940 that didn't
00:33:11.440 get many retweets.
00:33:13.580 Now the fact
00:33:14.460 that this
00:33:14.840 didn't get many
00:33:15.620 retweets
00:33:16.180 compared to
00:33:16.760 everything else
00:33:17.340 I tweeted today
00:33:18.100 tells me that
00:33:19.520 the message
00:33:20.040 is not
00:33:20.580 getting through
00:33:21.560 or it's
00:33:22.740 getting through
00:33:23.300 and it's
00:33:23.640 being rejected.
00:33:25.820 Now I'm
00:33:26.300 going to tell
00:33:26.680 you something
00:33:27.160 that will be
00:33:27.720 one of the
00:33:28.080 most important
00:33:28.780 things you'll
00:33:29.300 ever hear.
00:33:30.520 Indeed,
00:33:31.120 it's so
00:33:31.620 important
00:33:32.080 it could
00:33:33.180 end racism.
00:33:35.660 I'll just
00:33:36.180 let that hang
00:33:36.820 in the air
00:33:37.140 for a moment.
00:33:38.320 I'm going to
00:33:38.660 give you a
00:33:39.140 suggestion,
00:33:39.820 a persuasion
00:33:40.560 suggestion
00:33:41.120 that's so
00:33:42.580 powerful
00:33:43.080 it could
00:33:44.420 completely
00:33:45.020 end racism.
00:33:46.700 It's a pretty
00:33:47.280 big claim,
00:33:47.960 isn't it?
00:33:48.280 Let me tell
00:33:49.920 you the
00:33:50.180 story.
00:33:51.260 Buffalo
00:33:51.660 teenager,
00:33:52.640 18 years
00:33:53.320 old,
00:33:54.700 who is
00:33:55.520 African
00:33:55.860 American,
00:33:56.440 which is
00:33:56.760 important to
00:33:57.460 the story.
00:33:59.160 After
00:33:59.700 Buffalo was
00:34:00.380 hit by
00:34:00.860 the looting,
00:34:02.160 I guess
00:34:02.500 there was
00:34:02.800 glass all
00:34:03.380 over the
00:34:03.700 streets.
00:34:04.840 And this
00:34:05.180 18-year-old
00:34:05.860 gentleman
00:34:07.980 decides to
00:34:09.700 just on his
00:34:10.200 own go out
00:34:10.720 with a broom
00:34:11.280 and start
00:34:11.880 sweeping the
00:34:12.540 streets.
00:34:12.940 And he
00:34:13.680 spent 10
00:34:14.300 hours cleaning
00:34:15.840 the street
00:34:16.380 by himself.
00:34:18.080 Just one
00:34:19.280 guy by
00:34:19.960 himself and
00:34:21.060 a broom
00:34:21.460 cleaning the
00:34:22.400 street.
00:34:23.600 What do you
00:34:24.240 think happened?
00:34:25.780 Have you
00:34:26.360 ever heard of
00:34:27.120 the power of
00:34:28.600 reciprocity?
00:34:30.380 I talk about
00:34:31.100 this, right?
00:34:32.880 And it's
00:34:33.520 documented, right?
00:34:34.580 It's in the
00:34:34.860 book Influence
00:34:36.440 by Cialdini.
00:34:37.520 So it's been
00:34:38.040 studied.
00:34:38.760 This is not
00:34:39.440 some new
00:34:40.280 agey kind
00:34:41.060 of let's
00:34:41.500 all get
00:34:42.180 along kind
00:34:42.680 of thing.
00:34:43.300 It's been
00:34:43.820 studied, and
00:34:44.520 it's scientifically
00:34:45.180 true, that if
00:34:46.720 you just give
00:34:47.580 somebody something
00:34:48.460 and ask
00:34:49.500 nothing in
00:34:50.080 return, the
00:34:51.440 odds of them
00:34:52.180 being flexible
00:34:52.960 with you in
00:34:53.520 the future and
00:34:54.460 wanting to
00:34:54.920 work with
00:34:55.260 you and do
00:34:56.440 good things
00:34:56.920 for you that
00:34:57.400 you didn't
00:34:57.740 ask for, goes
00:34:59.160 through the
00:34:59.560 roof.
00:35:00.660 Now, I don't
00:35:01.400 know that
00:35:01.760 reciprocity works
00:35:02.900 everywhere all
00:35:03.820 the same.
00:35:04.540 There could be
00:35:04.980 a cultural
00:35:05.560 element to it.
00:35:07.040 But I can
00:35:07.980 tell you, as
00:35:08.700 your representative
00:35:09.400 white person,
00:35:11.060 that, and
00:35:12.820 again, I
00:35:13.460 assume it
00:35:13.840 works with
00:35:14.240 everybody, but
00:35:15.140 I can only
00:35:15.640 speak to the
00:35:16.280 group that I
00:35:17.020 have the most
00:35:17.940 information about.
00:35:20.040 Among white
00:35:20.980 people, reciprocity
00:35:22.300 is like a
00:35:23.620 freaking nuclear
00:35:24.400 weapon.
00:35:26.160 We can't
00:35:27.440 ignore it.
00:35:28.700 We can't.
00:35:29.660 If you do
00:35:30.380 something good
00:35:30.980 for me, I
00:35:32.860 just got to
00:35:33.940 return the
00:35:34.420 favor.
00:35:35.040 I got to.
00:35:36.580 And if I
00:35:37.500 can't find
00:35:38.020 any way to
00:35:38.540 do it right
00:35:38.920 away, it
00:35:40.140 will bother
00:35:40.900 me for
00:35:41.320 years, years,
00:35:43.100 literally, it'll
00:35:43.800 bother me for
00:35:44.400 years if I
00:35:45.760 can't pay back
00:35:46.500 a kindness.
00:35:49.140 So what
00:35:49.740 happened to
00:35:50.200 the 18-year-old
00:35:51.140 African-American
00:35:51.960 guy who just
00:35:53.560 saw a glass in
00:35:54.340 the streets and
00:35:54.960 said, you know,
00:35:55.460 it would be a
00:35:55.780 better world if I
00:35:56.520 just swept up
00:35:57.160 this glass?
00:35:58.360 Spent 10
00:35:59.400 hours doing,
00:36:02.240 if you've
00:36:02.640 ever swept for
00:36:03.440 10 hours,
00:36:05.100 because I
00:36:05.740 have, not
00:36:06.740 10 hours, but
00:36:07.480 I've swept for
00:36:08.160 hours, and
00:36:09.700 it's hard after
00:36:11.240 the first few
00:36:11.960 hours.
00:36:13.060 Here's what
00:36:13.660 happened.
00:36:16.080 One gentleman
00:36:16.980 gave him a
00:36:18.000 car, I
00:36:19.560 think a
00:36:20.740 Mustang.
00:36:21.520 It was a
00:36:22.660 classic one.
00:36:24.120 It was a
00:36:24.460 few years old
00:36:25.080 because he
00:36:26.460 checked his
00:36:26.920 social media,
00:36:28.200 the person who
00:36:28.780 gave him the
00:36:29.220 car, and
00:36:30.200 found that he
00:36:30.780 said he was
00:36:31.240 saving up to
00:36:31.800 get a car.
00:36:32.240 So somebody
00:36:33.680 just gave
00:36:34.440 him a
00:36:35.720 Mustang.
00:36:36.900 Now here's
00:36:37.400 the fun part
00:36:38.000 of the story.
00:36:39.460 His late
00:36:40.300 mother had
00:36:41.900 that same
00:36:42.400 car.
00:36:44.160 And so it
00:36:44.640 wasn't just
00:36:45.280 a car, it
00:36:46.900 was like
00:36:47.220 really a
00:36:48.060 meaningful,
00:36:49.440 who's
00:36:49.900 programming the
00:36:50.680 simulation kind
00:36:51.500 of a car.
00:36:52.100 Of all the
00:36:52.800 cars in the
00:36:53.340 world, he
00:36:55.960 was given
00:36:56.480 as a gift
00:36:57.280 the car
00:36:58.840 that had
00:37:00.740 the most
00:37:01.160 meaning to
00:37:01.720 it.
00:37:02.700 That was
00:37:03.160 a coincidence.
00:37:05.060 He gets
00:37:05.660 a car, and
00:37:06.380 then somebody
00:37:06.800 hears that
00:37:07.240 story.
00:37:08.140 And they
00:37:08.440 say, what
00:37:08.780 good is a
00:37:09.120 car without
00:37:09.520 car insurance?
00:37:11.140 So somebody
00:37:11.840 bought him
00:37:12.200 insurance.
00:37:14.040 So he
00:37:14.540 made a
00:37:15.160 brand new,
00:37:15.680 not a
00:37:16.020 brand new,
00:37:16.460 it was a
00:37:16.660 used, but
00:37:17.140 it was a
00:37:17.440 classic
00:37:17.940 Mustang,
00:37:18.900 maybe better
00:37:19.920 than a new
00:37:20.380 car, depending
00:37:20.980 on what kind
00:37:22.260 of cars you
00:37:22.660 like.
00:37:24.020 And then
00:37:24.620 somebody paid
00:37:27.020 for his
00:37:27.360 college
00:37:27.660 education.
00:37:28.300 they gave
00:37:31.480 him a
00:37:31.740 car, car
00:37:33.060 insurance, and
00:37:35.300 they paid for
00:37:35.860 college.
00:37:37.860 Because he
00:37:38.520 spent ten
00:37:39.220 hours sweeping
00:37:41.360 the streets and
00:37:43.380 asking for
00:37:44.440 nothing.
00:37:47.040 My cat is
00:37:48.340 visiting, if you
00:37:49.000 see a tail go
00:37:49.740 by.
00:37:50.400 He asked for
00:37:51.280 nothing, and
00:37:52.880 he got a car,
00:37:54.040 car insurance,
00:37:55.120 and a free
00:37:56.840 education.
00:37:58.360 Now, how
00:37:59.240 often does
00:37:59.800 this work?
00:38:01.140 Well, it
00:38:01.720 doesn't work
00:38:02.260 like that
00:38:03.040 too often, like
00:38:04.320 you're not
00:38:04.640 going to get a
00:38:05.100 car and a
00:38:05.640 college education
00:38:06.420 just for
00:38:06.900 helping people
00:38:07.440 out.
00:38:08.040 But the
00:38:08.700 concept of
00:38:09.440 reciprocity
00:38:10.240 will work
00:38:10.920 every time.
00:38:13.680 What are
00:38:14.080 white people
00:38:14.700 doing to
00:38:15.400 try to make
00:38:15.880 the world
00:38:16.440 better?
00:38:18.000 Are you
00:38:18.280 watching the
00:38:18.760 protests?
00:38:20.260 The white
00:38:20.780 people are
00:38:22.340 washing the
00:38:23.200 feet of
00:38:24.820 Black Lives
00:38:25.440 Matter people
00:38:26.140 and the
00:38:28.000 leaders of
00:38:28.720 black churches.
00:38:30.680 Why are
00:38:31.400 they doing
00:38:31.740 that?
00:38:32.800 Well, who
00:38:33.900 knows?
00:38:34.400 You can't
00:38:35.060 really see
00:38:36.800 in their
00:38:37.180 minds, but
00:38:38.560 it is a
00:38:39.060 reciprocity
00:38:39.820 play.
00:38:41.340 Because if
00:38:42.200 you're watching
00:38:42.720 that and
00:38:43.420 you're black,
00:38:44.280 let's say
00:38:44.660 you're a
00:38:44.920 black leader
00:38:45.500 and some
00:38:46.420 white people
00:38:47.080 said, can
00:38:47.620 we wash
00:38:48.100 your feet
00:38:48.500 on camera?
00:38:49.580 And you
00:38:49.900 said yes,
00:38:51.300 and it
00:38:51.660 happened.
00:38:53.320 How do
00:38:54.000 you feel?
00:38:54.820 Do you
00:38:56.880 say, ah,
00:38:57.660 suckers,
00:38:59.060 you suckers,
00:39:00.520 ha, ha, ha,
00:39:01.080 that changed
00:39:01.660 nothing?
00:39:02.640 You might
00:39:03.460 try to feel
00:39:04.220 that way.
00:39:05.360 You might
00:39:06.380 try to
00:39:07.600 feel like
00:39:08.800 these stupid
00:39:09.600 white people,
00:39:10.360 they don't
00:39:10.680 know that
00:39:11.720 this doesn't
00:39:12.280 work, but
00:39:12.840 sure, I'll
00:39:13.440 humiliate
00:39:14.020 them, I'll
00:39:15.100 let them
00:39:15.400 wash my
00:39:15.900 feet.
00:39:16.720 I don't
00:39:17.300 know what
00:39:17.620 you're
00:39:17.820 thinking
00:39:18.220 intellectually,
00:39:19.700 but I
00:39:20.740 gotta tell
00:39:21.220 you, it
00:39:22.060 probably
00:39:22.680 worked.
00:39:23.300 because
00:39:24.480 reciprocity
00:39:25.360 doesn't
00:39:26.000 ever not
00:39:26.620 work.
00:39:27.680 It works
00:39:28.400 every time.
00:39:30.480 So,
00:39:31.580 should, if
00:39:32.440 the Black
00:39:35.260 Lives Matter
00:39:35.800 people wanted
00:39:36.820 equality,
00:39:38.740 there is a
00:39:40.460 four-lane
00:39:41.500 highway with
00:39:42.480 no traffic
00:39:43.220 to get
00:39:44.140 there.
00:39:44.820 It's called
00:39:45.560 reciprocity.
00:39:46.420 but, could
00:39:49.700 you use a
00:39:50.540 reciprocity
00:39:51.340 strategy if
00:39:53.100 you were,
00:39:54.020 let's say,
00:39:55.920 still suffering,
00:39:57.040 in your
00:39:57.260 opinion, from
00:39:58.640 the effects
00:39:59.180 of slavery?
00:40:02.680 Right?
00:40:03.480 If you still
00:40:04.700 felt oppressed
00:40:06.140 today, and
00:40:07.160 you felt it
00:40:07.660 was the legacy
00:40:09.020 of slavery,
00:40:10.160 and all the
00:40:11.480 bad Jim Crow
00:40:13.580 laws, and
00:40:14.340 everything in
00:40:15.660 history, if
00:40:16.940 that's what's
00:40:17.500 on your
00:40:17.840 mind, and
00:40:19.100 that's sort
00:40:19.520 of defining
00:40:20.080 your worldview,
00:40:21.260 how in the
00:40:21.900 world could
00:40:23.780 you ever use
00:40:24.420 reciprocity as
00:40:25.640 a tool?
00:40:26.580 It just
00:40:26.960 doesn't feel
00:40:27.440 like giving
00:40:27.960 something is
00:40:29.200 the right
00:40:29.540 solution, when
00:40:31.020 the problem
00:40:31.500 is people
00:40:32.900 took too
00:40:33.400 much.
00:40:34.700 Right?
00:40:35.800 I mean, the
00:40:36.340 slavery is
00:40:37.380 somebody taking
00:40:38.100 too much from
00:40:38.900 you, your
00:40:39.360 very liberty,
00:40:40.640 your life,
00:40:41.400 your safety,
00:40:42.880 everything.
00:40:43.160 slavery is
00:40:45.220 taking everything
00:40:45.980 from you.
00:40:46.940 So how do
00:40:47.340 you get from
00:40:47.860 that mindset
00:40:48.520 something that's
00:40:49.840 still rippling
00:40:50.480 through history?
00:40:51.440 How do you
00:40:51.660 get from that
00:40:52.120 mindset to
00:40:53.360 the most
00:40:54.060 productive and
00:40:55.760 reliable
00:40:56.520 persuasion
00:40:57.740 technique in
00:40:58.420 the world,
00:40:59.780 reciprocity?
00:41:01.480 Well, I
00:41:02.060 would look at
00:41:02.720 an 18-year-old
00:41:04.820 buffalo teen
00:41:05.920 who did that.
00:41:08.440 He actually
00:41:09.120 did that.
00:41:10.180 He was born
00:41:10.840 into the same
00:41:11.460 world you were
00:41:12.120 born into.
00:41:13.460 Slavery is
00:41:14.700 still a
00:41:15.140 historical fact
00:41:16.340 in his
00:41:16.700 world, right?
00:41:19.080 This 18-year-old
00:41:20.340 was not born
00:41:21.020 into a world
00:41:21.700 where slavery
00:41:22.420 never happened.
00:41:23.960 Nope.
00:41:24.660 He was not
00:41:25.400 born into a
00:41:26.080 world where
00:41:26.740 black people
00:41:27.440 are treated
00:41:27.860 exactly the
00:41:28.660 same as
00:41:29.000 white people.
00:41:30.060 Nope.
00:41:30.700 He wasn't
00:41:31.260 born into
00:41:31.660 that world.
00:41:32.520 Wasn't born
00:41:33.100 into a world
00:41:33.820 where everything
00:41:34.740 is fair.
00:41:36.180 Nope.
00:41:36.980 Nope.
00:41:37.700 Wasn't born
00:41:38.380 into a world
00:41:39.020 where racism
00:41:39.700 doesn't exist.
00:41:40.540 exists.
00:41:41.820 Nope.
00:41:42.660 Nope.
00:41:43.500 He had
00:41:44.040 every obstacle
00:41:45.080 in the world
00:41:46.240 against him.
00:41:47.960 Every obstacle
00:41:49.160 in the world
00:41:50.260 against him.
00:41:51.820 And he fixed
00:41:52.620 it with a
00:41:54.380 broom.
00:41:55.800 A broom.
00:41:57.700 He changed
00:41:58.740 his life
00:41:59.560 with a
00:42:01.460 broom
00:42:01.900 in 10
00:42:03.100 hours.
00:42:04.500 And if you
00:42:05.600 had asked me
00:42:06.180 ahead of time,
00:42:07.420 Scott, do you
00:42:07.920 think this is a
00:42:08.520 good idea?
00:42:09.000 Will this
00:42:09.520 work?
00:42:10.500 I would have
00:42:11.340 said, not
00:42:12.780 only will it
00:42:13.440 work, it
00:42:15.120 could change
00:42:15.640 your life.
00:42:17.100 Might even
00:42:18.000 change the
00:42:19.140 world.
00:42:20.820 I doubt it.
00:42:22.360 Because I, you
00:42:23.100 know, I just
00:42:23.760 don't think it's
00:42:24.220 realistic to
00:42:26.200 find too many
00:42:27.480 people that
00:42:28.100 have as much
00:42:29.640 on the ball
00:42:30.280 as this 18
00:42:31.040 year old has.
00:42:31.900 This 18
00:42:32.720 year old is
00:42:33.580 just operating
00:42:34.240 at a different
00:42:34.780 level.
00:42:35.220 If this
00:42:36.920 guy doesn't
00:42:37.840 run for
00:42:38.600 office someday,
00:42:40.840 it would be
00:42:42.220 a crime.
00:42:44.140 Because this
00:42:45.380 is the guy
00:42:46.280 you need to
00:42:46.680 be in charge.
00:42:48.060 I would
00:42:48.680 vote for
00:42:49.040 this guy.
00:42:49.960 He's 18
00:42:50.480 years old,
00:42:51.060 and he
00:42:51.380 already has
00:42:51.780 my vote
00:42:52.160 for president,
00:42:53.220 frankly.
00:42:55.740 All right.
00:42:57.100 So let's
00:42:57.840 see what else
00:42:58.240 is coming
00:42:58.540 down the
00:42:58.960 road.
00:43:00.020 Let's talk
00:43:00.480 about Biden
00:43:01.040 and his
00:43:01.800 vice
00:43:03.160 presidential
00:43:03.620 pick.
00:43:05.340 Some smart
00:43:06.120 people are
00:43:06.520 saying it's
00:43:06.940 narrowed down
00:43:07.480 to Elizabeth
00:43:08.020 Warren or
00:43:08.620 Kamala Harris.
00:43:09.520 So I did a
00:43:10.260 little Twitter
00:43:10.660 poll to find
00:43:11.820 out how you
00:43:12.540 thought about
00:43:13.040 it.
00:43:14.600 And Kamala
00:43:17.220 Harris was
00:43:18.520 the winner of
00:43:19.140 the unscientific
00:43:20.140 Twitter poll
00:43:20.840 with almost
00:43:22.700 70% of the
00:43:23.660 vote.
00:43:24.880 So it's
00:43:25.440 sort of a
00:43:25.960 two to one,
00:43:26.680 let's say.
00:43:27.100 So two to
00:43:27.520 one of
00:43:28.760 probably
00:43:29.620 mostly
00:43:30.120 pro-Trump
00:43:30.860 people who
00:43:31.380 voted in
00:43:31.920 my unscientific
00:43:32.840 Twitter poll,
00:43:34.280 two to one
00:43:34.720 thought Kamala
00:43:35.300 Harris was
00:43:35.800 the stronger
00:43:36.540 candidate.
00:43:38.200 Stronger meaning
00:43:38.840 the one that
00:43:39.240 would help
00:43:39.520 Biden the
00:43:39.960 most.
00:43:40.560 And I
00:43:40.900 agree with
00:43:41.260 that
00:43:41.440 completely.
00:43:42.920 Some people
00:43:43.760 complained and
00:43:44.500 said no,
00:43:45.320 no way,
00:43:46.120 because Kamala
00:43:47.220 Harris was a
00:43:48.100 prosecutor,
00:43:49.100 and she is
00:43:49.740 more associated
00:43:50.580 with putting
00:43:51.200 black people
00:43:51.780 in jail than
00:43:53.180 she is
00:43:53.560 associated with
00:43:54.420 defunding the
00:43:55.180 police,
00:43:55.720 which is the
00:43:56.520 popular thing
00:43:57.180 for Democrats.
00:43:57.820 But I
00:43:59.920 would argue
00:44:00.460 this,
00:44:02.060 that if
00:44:02.660 you're
00:44:02.840 Democrats and
00:44:03.700 you're worried
00:44:04.240 about scaring
00:44:05.300 Republicans with
00:44:06.420 too much of
00:44:07.080 the defund
00:44:07.620 the police
00:44:08.020 stuff,
00:44:08.780 and I
00:44:08.980 think Biden's
00:44:09.600 not going
00:44:10.020 to go
00:44:10.280 fully,
00:44:11.380 he might
00:44:11.980 flirt with
00:44:12.620 defunding the
00:44:13.240 police,
00:44:13.580 but he's
00:44:13.880 not going
00:44:14.200 to be
00:44:14.420 and eliminate
00:44:15.080 the police
00:44:15.560 guy,
00:44:16.000 I don't
00:44:16.560 think.
00:44:18.480 I think
00:44:19.220 Harris is
00:44:20.120 actually perfect
00:44:20.960 for that,
00:44:21.960 because she
00:44:22.580 straddles both
00:44:24.600 worlds like
00:44:25.620 nobody else you
00:44:26.400 can think of.
00:44:27.000 You want
00:44:28.320 somebody who's
00:44:28.920 got one foot
00:44:29.740 in the world
00:44:31.280 of the police,
00:44:34.100 let's say law
00:44:34.660 enforcement world,
00:44:35.880 and she does,
00:44:36.940 but you also
00:44:37.760 want the other
00:44:38.520 foot to be
00:44:39.980 with the
00:44:40.460 protesters,
00:44:41.340 with Black
00:44:41.780 Lives Matter,
00:44:42.960 clearly progressive,
00:44:44.620 somebody who can
00:44:45.340 see both sides.
00:44:47.320 How many people
00:44:48.120 have that?
00:44:49.440 She actually is
00:44:50.300 exactly the right
00:44:51.220 person.
00:44:52.020 She's not even
00:44:52.700 approximately the
00:44:53.640 right person.
00:44:54.620 She's exactly the
00:44:55.660 right person.
00:44:56.140 because you
00:44:57.280 want somebody
00:44:57.780 who can see
00:44:58.160 both sides.
00:44:59.380 You're not
00:44:59.900 going to get
00:45:00.200 to the end
00:45:00.720 without a few
00:45:01.540 leaders who
00:45:02.080 can do that.
00:45:03.160 Now,
00:45:03.340 I don't think
00:45:04.040 she's necessarily
00:45:06.040 the unifying
00:45:07.180 leader that we
00:45:08.060 need,
00:45:08.700 but she has
00:45:09.920 what you need
00:45:10.380 for vice
00:45:10.780 president.
00:45:11.220 I think it's
00:45:11.540 a slam dunk.
00:45:12.800 All right,
00:45:13.060 so we could
00:45:16.160 be surprised
00:45:16.780 by some
00:45:17.420 candidate we
00:45:18.200 didn't know
00:45:18.740 of,
00:45:19.400 who just was
00:45:20.020 even more
00:45:20.500 perfect,
00:45:20.960 but at
00:45:22.660 this point,
00:45:23.240 I'd say
00:45:23.560 at least
00:45:24.240 a 50%
00:45:25.020 chance
00:45:25.640 it's
00:45:26.460 Kamala
00:45:26.980 Harris,
00:45:27.940 but I
00:45:28.460 would say
00:45:28.780 there's
00:45:29.140 a 100%
00:45:29.960 chance
00:45:30.500 it's not
00:45:31.780 Elizabeth Warren,
00:45:33.660 so there
00:45:34.500 could be
00:45:34.780 some surprises.
00:45:36.340 I checked
00:45:36.800 my predicted
00:45:37.640 bets,
00:45:41.940 so where I
00:45:42.700 go to the
00:45:43.260 betting market
00:45:43.920 and actually
00:45:44.340 bet on stuff.
00:45:45.460 Now,
00:45:45.760 all of my
00:45:46.280 bets are
00:45:46.860 many months
00:45:48.020 old,
00:45:48.560 so there's
00:45:48.960 nothing that I
00:45:49.620 bet recently.
00:45:51.000 Everything is
00:45:52.280 2019,
00:45:53.960 maybe early
00:45:54.620 2020,
00:45:55.340 I don't
00:45:55.620 remember some
00:45:56.140 of them,
00:45:56.740 so there's
00:45:57.140 nothing new,
00:45:58.340 and I've got
00:45:58.920 six bets.
00:46:00.680 All six of
00:46:01.480 them are
00:46:01.780 right,
00:46:03.580 except that
00:46:04.320 only four of
00:46:05.620 them I think
00:46:06.100 will pay.
00:46:07.660 Here's why I
00:46:08.420 say they're
00:46:08.820 all correct
00:46:09.540 bets,
00:46:10.240 but only
00:46:10.720 three or
00:46:11.940 four of
00:46:12.220 them are
00:46:12.440 going to
00:46:12.660 pay.
00:46:13.620 One of my
00:46:14.300 bets was
00:46:14.760 that Kamala
00:46:15.240 Harris would
00:46:16.100 get the
00:46:17.260 top ticket
00:46:18.140 nomination.
00:46:19.620 That will
00:46:20.820 not happen
00:46:21.400 because Biden
00:46:22.100 already got
00:46:22.660 it,
00:46:23.540 but we
00:46:24.580 also agree
00:46:25.300 that if
00:46:25.820 she's the
00:46:26.220 vice
00:46:26.400 presidential
00:46:26.860 pick,
00:46:27.580 it will
00:46:28.100 be like
00:46:28.740 she's the
00:46:29.380 presidential
00:46:29.920 candidate.
00:46:30.960 So I'm
00:46:31.400 going to
00:46:31.600 lose my
00:46:32.120 bet on
00:46:32.540 predict it
00:46:33.140 because they're
00:46:33.840 going to be
00:46:34.160 technical about
00:46:35.040 that.
00:46:35.780 They tell you
00:46:36.700 in advance
00:46:37.120 what the
00:46:37.480 standard is
00:46:38.080 and it
00:46:38.320 wouldn't
00:46:38.540 meet that
00:46:38.900 standard.
00:46:40.000 So I'm
00:46:40.380 going to
00:46:40.560 lose the
00:46:41.000 bet at
00:46:43.140 the same
00:46:43.540 time that
00:46:45.240 I won
00:46:46.620 the bet.
00:46:47.060 So I
00:46:49.600 think it
00:46:49.880 was either
00:46:50.200 6 out of
00:46:50.640 6,
00:46:50.940 might have
00:46:51.160 been 5
00:46:51.580 out of
00:46:51.740 6.
00:46:51.980 So one
00:46:52.840 of the
00:46:53.060 bets I
00:46:53.420 won is
00:46:55.340 that the
00:46:55.660 nominee would
00:46:56.240 be over
00:46:56.580 70.
00:46:58.180 So that's
00:46:58.920 Biden.
00:47:01.040 One of the
00:47:01.560 ones I
00:47:01.960 won is
00:47:02.760 that I
00:47:04.180 lost the
00:47:05.320 bet that
00:47:06.280 the Democrats
00:47:07.100 would nominate
00:47:08.900 a woman.
00:47:10.580 But again,
00:47:11.940 if Kamala
00:47:12.520 Harris is
00:47:13.000 vice
00:47:13.260 president and
00:47:13.960 people see
00:47:14.520 her as the
00:47:15.100 top of
00:47:15.380 the
00:47:15.480 ticket,
00:47:16.280 I kind
00:47:17.340 of won
00:47:17.640 the bet
00:47:18.100 even though
00:47:19.360 I'll have
00:47:19.820 to pay
00:47:20.460 on the
00:47:20.740 bet and
00:47:21.120 lose it.
00:47:25.400 So anyway,
00:47:26.300 I think
00:47:26.560 Harris is
00:47:27.540 going to
00:47:28.240 get it.
00:47:30.380 That's
00:47:30.820 about
00:47:31.280 all I
00:47:35.160 got for
00:47:35.500 now.
00:47:36.380 Just
00:47:36.620 checking to
00:47:37.100 make sure.
00:47:39.600 So here's
00:47:40.340 something I
00:47:40.820 tweeted
00:47:41.160 yesterday.
00:47:42.000 I had this
00:47:42.360 pinned for
00:47:42.760 a while.
00:47:43.740 And even
00:47:44.060 Ann Coulter
00:47:44.900 liked it.
00:47:48.280 So I
00:47:49.000 got over
00:47:49.460 11,000
00:47:50.400 retweets.
00:47:51.820 Now,
00:47:52.160 given the
00:47:52.920 size of
00:47:53.400 my Twitter
00:47:53.820 following,
00:47:54.980 a really
00:47:55.680 good viral
00:47:56.580 tweet for
00:47:57.220 me would
00:47:57.700 be about
00:47:58.100 1,500
00:47:58.800 retweets.
00:48:00.900 So this
00:48:01.480 is
00:48:01.740 approaching
00:48:04.080 10 times
00:48:05.340 more
00:48:06.540 than a
00:48:09.920 good
00:48:10.160 normal
00:48:10.620 viral
00:48:11.000 tweet.
00:48:12.100 So that
00:48:12.820 means that
00:48:13.260 this is
00:48:13.660 hitting
00:48:14.120 a
00:48:14.620 chord
00:48:14.860 with
00:48:15.120 people
00:48:15.440 way,
00:48:16.820 way beyond
00:48:17.440 normal
00:48:18.240 tweets.
00:48:19.360 And here's
00:48:19.960 what it is.
00:48:20.440 Most of
00:48:20.740 you saw it.
00:48:21.580 I said,
00:48:22.000 I can't
00:48:22.280 respect the
00:48:22.780 protest.
00:48:23.560 I always
00:48:24.280 respect the
00:48:24.880 people,
00:48:25.320 of course,
00:48:25.700 but you can
00:48:26.820 disrespect
00:48:27.400 activities.
00:48:29.100 I can't
00:48:29.700 respect a
00:48:30.180 protest that
00:48:30.860 has these
00:48:31.260 qualities.
00:48:31.680 Number one,
00:48:32.760 no specific
00:48:33.500 suggestions on
00:48:34.540 what to
00:48:34.840 change.
00:48:36.360 Defunding the
00:48:37.060 police isn't
00:48:37.660 too specific.
00:48:39.160 Data is not
00:48:40.060 allowed into the
00:48:40.780 debate,
00:48:41.220 because it's
00:48:41.920 not.
00:48:43.080 You're not
00:48:43.500 really allowed
00:48:44.160 to look at
00:48:44.640 the data,
00:48:45.860 right?
00:48:47.380 Dissenting
00:48:47.880 opinions,
00:48:48.420 no matter
00:48:48.800 how respectful
00:48:49.560 and well-meaning,
00:48:50.440 are not
00:48:50.780 allowed.
00:48:51.840 That's
00:48:52.120 true.
00:48:52.940 You could
00:48:53.420 not have
00:48:54.080 a dissenting
00:48:54.920 opinion,
00:48:56.060 even if you're
00:48:56.740 respectful,
00:48:57.540 and even if
00:48:57.960 your data was
00:48:58.520 on your side,
00:48:59.620 and even if
00:49:00.160 you're well-meaning.
00:49:01.480 Not allowed.
00:49:03.160 And number
00:49:04.300 four,
00:49:04.860 the protest
00:49:05.420 has a low
00:49:06.180 regard for
00:49:06.800 public safety,
00:49:07.680 and I think
00:49:08.260 that's true.
00:49:11.860 So,
00:49:12.740 I don't
00:49:16.600 know.
00:49:16.740 I don't
00:49:17.000 know how
00:49:17.280 to participate
00:49:17.940 in a
00:49:18.420 debate in
00:49:19.740 which you
00:49:21.380 can't talk
00:49:21.960 about the
00:49:22.340 data,
00:49:22.800 you can't
00:49:23.160 have a
00:49:23.420 different
00:49:23.660 opinion,
00:49:24.620 there's no
00:49:25.440 real suggestions,
00:49:26.920 and they're
00:49:27.520 not even
00:49:27.940 concerned with
00:49:28.800 public
00:49:29.160 well-being.
00:49:30.460 Like,
00:49:31.060 I don't
00:49:31.560 know.
00:49:31.860 What's
00:49:32.100 that?
00:49:32.880 Part of
00:49:33.400 the reason
00:49:33.720 that I
00:49:34.020 think the
00:49:34.320 protests are
00:49:34.920 so big,
00:49:35.640 and that,
00:49:36.260 again,
00:49:36.800 nobody seems
00:49:37.460 to want to
00:49:37.860 say this
00:49:38.220 out loud,
00:49:38.780 but I
00:49:39.020 will.
00:49:39.940 It's
00:49:40.340 because the
00:49:40.920 weather is
00:49:41.440 good,
00:49:42.280 and there
00:49:43.000 are no
00:49:43.320 alternatives for
00:49:45.000 something to
00:49:45.600 do.
00:49:46.480 Imagine if
00:49:47.440 this were
00:49:47.880 just a
00:49:48.540 regular summer,
00:49:49.840 and people
00:49:50.720 had their
00:49:51.140 summer vacations
00:49:52.100 planned,
00:49:53.040 and kids
00:49:53.860 were going
00:49:54.300 to camps,
00:49:55.360 and you're
00:49:56.360 just busy,
00:49:57.000 busy running
00:49:57.560 around,
00:49:58.160 and you
00:49:58.460 could go to
00:49:58.920 clubs and
00:49:59.560 bars,
00:50:00.060 you could go
00:50:00.480 out to
00:50:00.820 restaurants,
00:50:01.460 you're at
00:50:01.800 the beach,
00:50:02.640 and you've
00:50:03.160 got all
00:50:03.780 these other
00:50:04.500 things you
00:50:05.100 can do.
00:50:05.640 How big
00:50:07.380 would the
00:50:07.720 protests be?
00:50:09.620 Now,
00:50:09.980 you'd like to
00:50:10.560 believe they'd
00:50:11.020 be the same
00:50:11.500 size,
00:50:12.040 right?
00:50:12.840 Because what's
00:50:13.420 more important,
00:50:14.180 going to the
00:50:14.720 beach,
00:50:15.600 or protesting
00:50:16.940 to try to
00:50:18.120 improve life
00:50:18.900 and reduce
00:50:20.300 racism?
00:50:21.780 So your
00:50:22.800 logical mind
00:50:24.300 says,
00:50:24.620 well,
00:50:24.800 they'd be the
00:50:25.180 same size,
00:50:25.920 because it's
00:50:26.640 so important
00:50:27.200 compared to
00:50:27.760 going to the
00:50:28.260 beach.
00:50:29.280 Have you met
00:50:30.080 people?
00:50:32.600 If you've
00:50:33.460 got that
00:50:33.820 many human
00:50:34.400 beings,
00:50:35.640 there are a
00:50:36.140 lot of those
00:50:36.740 people who
00:50:37.280 would have
00:50:37.640 gone to
00:50:37.980 the beach,
00:50:39.180 they would
00:50:39.680 have gone
00:50:39.920 to the
00:50:40.240 beach.
00:50:40.540 It doesn't
00:50:40.860 mean that
00:50:41.260 the issue
00:50:43.360 is any
00:50:43.980 less,
00:50:44.920 certainly not
00:50:45.620 saying that.
00:50:46.520 I'm just
00:50:46.880 saying if
00:50:47.220 you're looking
00:50:47.540 at the
00:50:47.840 size of
00:50:48.280 the crowd,
00:50:48.820 it's
00:50:49.020 completely
00:50:49.620 misleading,
00:50:50.800 because they
00:50:51.500 just didn't
00:50:52.200 have anything
00:50:52.760 else to do
00:50:53.620 that was
00:50:54.480 outdoors,
00:50:55.700 that you
00:50:56.080 could leave
00:50:56.420 the house.
00:50:57.440 So I
00:50:58.320 think we're
00:50:58.640 being fooled
00:50:59.260 not only
00:50:59.860 by selective
00:51:00.700 images on
00:51:01.500 our TV,
00:51:02.500 we're being
00:51:03.060 fooled because
00:51:03.800 we ignore the
00:51:04.980 alternatives.
00:51:06.040 The alternative
00:51:06.640 was to do
00:51:07.400 something else
00:51:07.960 and it
00:51:08.220 didn't exist.
00:51:11.500 All right.
00:51:13.660 It's the
00:51:14.260 perfect time
00:51:14.760 for a protest.
00:51:15.720 Weather's good
00:51:16.380 and there's
00:51:16.820 nothing else
00:51:17.300 to do.
00:51:19.440 I don't even
00:51:20.240 think the
00:51:20.600 protests would
00:51:21.220 be this big
00:51:21.800 if they were
00:51:22.200 in August,
00:51:23.040 because it
00:51:23.380 would be
00:51:23.500 too hot.
00:51:25.520 That alone
00:51:26.360 would be a
00:51:27.080 factor.
00:51:27.400 you just
00:51:29.560 described
00:51:30.220 Florida.
00:51:35.140 Do you
00:51:35.740 think it'll
00:51:36.140 matter that
00:51:36.880 people are
00:51:37.300 seeing that
00:51:37.900 Democratic
00:51:39.040 mayors all
00:51:40.360 failed?
00:51:41.880 Do you think
00:51:42.540 that that's
00:51:42.920 going to
00:51:43.120 matter to
00:51:43.500 anything?
00:51:44.120 I have a
00:51:44.580 feeling it
00:51:45.000 won't.
00:51:46.460 I really
00:51:46.900 do.
00:51:48.080 I'd love to
00:51:48.820 see some
00:51:49.280 kind of a
00:51:49.980 city,
00:51:51.960 let's say
00:51:52.940 consultants like
00:51:54.900 Bain
00:51:55.260 consultants or
00:51:56.320 people like
00:51:56.740 that.
00:51:57.200 I'd love to
00:51:57.760 see them
00:51:58.100 put together
00:51:58.700 a city
00:52:00.040 rescue
00:52:00.720 service.
00:52:03.380 It would
00:52:03.880 be a
00:52:05.500 contracted
00:52:06.100 service and
00:52:07.400 you would
00:52:07.620 say to
00:52:07.920 some big
00:52:08.360 consulting
00:52:08.840 company,
00:52:09.480 McKenzie,
00:52:10.100 somebody who's
00:52:11.080 got a lot
00:52:11.520 of smart
00:52:12.500 people,
00:52:13.720 and you'd
00:52:14.040 say,
00:52:14.600 we're going
00:52:15.200 to have an
00:52:15.480 election in
00:52:16.060 our city,
00:52:17.220 and if we
00:52:18.000 choose this
00:52:19.220 by referendum,
00:52:20.720 then you're
00:52:21.380 going to come
00:52:21.720 in for two
00:52:22.300 years,
00:52:23.240 and at two
00:52:23.780 years,
00:52:24.200 you're out of
00:52:24.680 here,
00:52:25.080 but two
00:52:25.540 years,
00:52:26.220 we'll bring
00:52:26.820 in professional
00:52:27.880 consultants who
00:52:29.760 have a package
00:52:30.660 of, you know,
00:52:31.500 they've figured
00:52:32.000 out how to do
00:52:32.520 things,
00:52:32.980 what works
00:52:33.420 and what
00:52:33.680 doesn't,
00:52:34.380 and they'll
00:52:34.780 come in and
00:52:35.240 they'll just
00:52:35.540 implement these
00:52:36.260 changes,
00:52:37.100 we'll run it
00:52:37.760 for two
00:52:38.100 years,
00:52:38.660 and then the
00:52:39.500 consultants will
00:52:40.220 have to leave
00:52:40.880 no matter how
00:52:41.520 well they do,
00:52:42.180 they don't live
00:52:42.920 here,
00:52:43.700 they're not
00:52:44.100 elected,
00:52:44.600 they've got to
00:52:45.000 leave after
00:52:45.400 two years,
00:52:46.440 and then we'll
00:52:47.280 try to fill
00:52:48.900 positions with
00:52:49.840 regular elected
00:52:50.760 people to keep
00:52:51.620 the momentum
00:52:52.140 going.
00:52:52.520 Do you
00:52:53.500 think anybody
00:52:53.960 would use
00:52:54.340 that?
00:52:55.080 Would anybody
00:52:55.660 use a city
00:52:57.120 rescue service?
00:53:00.120 It would be
00:53:00.560 like a
00:53:01.620 government in
00:53:02.360 a box,
00:53:03.480 you know,
00:53:04.000 a canned
00:53:04.660 government that
00:53:05.360 just comes in
00:53:05.920 for two years
00:53:06.540 and then they
00:53:06.980 have to leave.
00:53:08.200 You know,
00:53:08.400 no two ways
00:53:09.380 about it.
00:53:10.160 Now,
00:53:10.340 I wouldn't
00:53:10.620 worry about,
00:53:11.360 you know,
00:53:12.600 consultants taking
00:53:13.680 over a city
00:53:14.240 and staying.
00:53:15.660 I don't feel
00:53:16.380 like that's a
00:53:16.920 big risk.
00:53:17.960 I feel like
00:53:18.640 they'd want to
00:53:19.100 make their
00:53:19.440 money and move
00:53:19.960 to another
00:53:20.340 city.
00:53:22.520 Yeah,
00:53:23.320 and you
00:53:23.720 know,
00:53:23.840 maybe you
00:53:24.180 appoint a
00:53:24.700 city manager
00:53:25.300 to implement
00:53:25.960 things,
00:53:26.860 but that
00:53:27.480 manager would
00:53:28.040 be more
00:53:28.360 of an
00:53:28.580 implementer.
00:53:31.820 Anyway,
00:53:32.880 pork is a
00:53:33.360 problem.
00:53:34.580 That is
00:53:35.160 correct.
00:53:35.960 And I
00:53:36.260 think that
00:53:36.660 the professional
00:53:37.460 consultants would
00:53:38.740 be less
00:53:39.280 susceptible to
00:53:40.480 the pork
00:53:40.900 because they
00:53:41.760 would be
00:53:42.040 highly paid
00:53:42.760 on day
00:53:44.320 one.
00:53:44.860 They wouldn't
00:53:45.140 have to take
00:53:45.620 bribes because
00:53:46.260 they have good
00:53:46.640 jobs.
00:53:48.160 All right,
00:53:48.780 that's all
00:53:50.720 for now,
00:53:51.160 and I
00:53:51.940 will talk
00:53:52.300 to you
00:53:52.680 later.
00:53:54.040 Have a
00:53:54.360 great day.