Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1021 Scott Adams： Lying Statistics, Trump Poll Numbers Plummet, Democrat Strategy Debacle, Harris Versus Warren, BLM

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, it's time. Dr. Funkjuice, good to see you. Always a pleasure.

00:00:19.780 Well, everybody, what a great day today is. What a great day. 63 years ago today,

00:00:28.540 I came out of my mother's body. So today's my birthday. Yay. Shall we celebrate with a

00:00:37.260 simultaneous sip? I think that would be in order. And all you need to do to participate

00:00:42.920 is find yourself a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or flask,

00:00:49.040 a vessel of any kind. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit

00:00:58.360 of the day, the thing that makes everything better, including the pandemic, including

00:01:02.780 racism, it'll even make your birthday better. But it's my birthday, not yours. So it might 0.57

00:01:07.960 not help you at all. To the simultaneous sip. Go.

00:01:12.380 Happy birthday also to Kanye West and to JFK, people who shared my birthday. All right. But

00:01:28.560 enough about me. Let's talk about the world. Is the world still there? All right. Here's

00:01:36.100 some things for you to think about. 90% of the people who are killed by police are men. Is

00:01:44.660 that proof of sexism? Go. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Uh-huh. Now, I just put that out there to cause 0.96

00:01:54.020 trouble. Why is it only men who are getting killed by police? It's proof of sexism, isn't

00:02:01.780 it? Now, when you say, uh, Scott, um, no, because the men are committing the crimes, I say to

00:02:09.780 you, how sexist of you to say that. I just put that out there to cause trouble. Here's

00:02:15.700 some more trouble-causing statistics. Have you noticed that we humans can't calculate anything

00:02:24.180 correctly? We can't calculate anything correctly. We don't know how many people are going to die

00:02:30.520 from the virus. We don't know how many people died from the regular flu. We don't know what

00:02:35.600 the unemployment rate really is, because even that got revised. So that got revised up from

00:02:40.700 what we thought was great, great news to just pretty good news. The unemployment got corrected

00:02:47.280 up to 16.3%. And black unemployment is the highest in more than 10 years, according to Kamala Harris.

00:02:55.240 And Latino unemployment is 17.6%. Yikes. So as Kamala Harris is saying, that's nothing to celebrate

00:03:05.340 about. But of course, nobody is celebrating the absolute number. Do you think anybody was

00:03:12.280 celebrating the absolute number? No, I think they were celebrating the change. I think there was

00:03:19.100 celebration for the celebration for the direction, celebration for the hoped for a future. But it's

00:03:26.420 one more example of how we humans, we should just give up on numbers. We should just give up on trying

00:03:34.400 to calculate anything, because we always do it wrong. Or if we do it right, the other side doesn't believe

00:03:40.660 it. It just doesn't make any difference if you've got good numbers or bad. Here's some more numbers.

00:03:46.220 So according to Rasmussen, and I believe that's coming out any moment now, back in 2016, this was the

00:03:59.960 opinion. All right. So in 2016, 38% of voters thought most black Americans were treated unfairly by the

00:04:08.420 police. So it was 38% in 2016. Today, it's 51%. It went from 38% thought black Americans were treated

00:04:19.180 unfairly by the police to 51% during Trump's administration. What changed? What changed?

00:04:29.880 Was it the data? Did the data change? No, I'll bet not. I mean, not in three years, right? I don't think

00:04:40.680 the data changed. I think what changed was the persuasion. What you saw on television, who was the

00:04:48.660 president? You know, how many stories were run of a certain type? What did social media do? So without

00:04:56.000 the data changing at all, I mean, I haven't even looked at the data, but I don't think it got worse

00:05:02.800 between 2016 and 2019, did it? Or 2020? It didn't get worse. I mean, if it did, it's like some small

00:05:12.460 amount, but basically it's the same. But our opinion of it completely changed. So do you think opinions

00:05:19.900 change because of data? No. No, the data stayed the same, and the opinions wildly changed because of

00:05:29.660 persuasion. So if you don't see that the data didn't make any difference, and the persuasion made all the

00:05:36.420 difference, you're watching the wrong world. So let's talk about some more fun stuff. So I've told you

00:05:49.040 before that fear is the primary persuasive force. There is nothing more persuasive, period, than fear

00:06:00.580 because fear is the top of your concern stack. If you're literally afraid at the moment, you're going

00:06:07.700 to take care of that first. You won't even eat first if you're afraid. First, you take care of afraid,

00:06:15.420 go hide, protect yourself, do what you need to do, and then you eat. So there's nothing that competes

00:06:23.000 even close to fear as a primary persuasive variable. And here's what the Democrats are doing for their

00:06:32.060 campaign strategy. They're calling for defunding the police at exactly the same time other Democrats,

00:06:42.460 Democrats. And I say that more jokingly, because I'm just, you know, I'm doing that thing that all

00:06:48.360 pundits do. I act like the 1% of the bad characters represent the whole. Obviously, the looters do not

00:06:57.620 represent Democrats. Can we agree? Looters are not representative of Democrats. Even if you think it,

00:07:06.740 even if you think that's true for fun, it's not true mathematically. But it is nonetheless true

00:07:13.900 that in a political season, if the Democrats are producing two things simultaneously, it's not a

00:07:20.420 good look. One of the things they're producing is a very powerful and maybe successful call to defund

00:07:29.480 the police. So that's one thing they're doing. But other people who will be associated with the

00:07:35.720 Democrats, because they lean in that direction, even if they're not registered Democrats,

00:07:40.120 even if they're not voting, is the people doing the violence on videos. So we have all this video

00:07:47.360 of what happens when the police are not there, which is, if I can be blunt, white people being killed by 0.74

00:07:54.780 black people. I'm not saying that that describes the world. I'm saying it describes these selective 1.00

00:08:01.400 little videos that are running nonstop because those are the anecdotes we're getting. So if you're

00:08:08.120 doing two things simultaneously, the Democrats, saying let's defund the police, while all of the

00:08:15.620 visual persuasion, what do I tell you about visual persuasion? It overwhelms other kinds of persuasions

00:08:24.180 that evolve your senses. It's not as strong as fear, but the visual can be part of the fear

00:08:30.000 persuasion. But the fact that it's visual, it's on video, and it's horrible, and you're seeing people

00:08:38.460 just being killed by rioters and looters breaking store windows, you couldn't have a weaker strategy

00:08:45.900 going into the election. In fact, if you were to sit down and try to design on paper the worst

00:08:52.540 campaign strategy, it would be defund the police while simultaneously showing nonstop images of what

00:09:01.820 happens when the police are not standing right there. I don't know that that could be worse from

00:09:08.480 their side. Am I wrong? Highest form of persuasion, and they're creating a situation to scare you

00:09:18.820 to death. Now, if you haven't seen this clip, I just tweeted it, you have to watch it just for the

00:09:26.180 reaction. It's a CNN clip in which Alison Camerato is interviewing somebody named Bender, who is in

00:09:37.280 favor of defunding the police. And Alison Camerato asked this question, which I think is on all of your

00:09:44.760 minds. And here's the question. What if in the middle of the night, my home is broken into? Who do

00:09:51.440 I call? Now, here's what you need to watch in that question. Alison Camerato is a CNN, what's the right 0.99

00:10:00.920 word? Of course, host, whatever is the right word for that. Host, I think. And the way she words the

00:10:09.740 question is personal. That's important. All right? Because you're trying to understand what she's

00:10:16.760 thinking as well as what she's saying. We can't read minds, but how we receive the communication

00:10:23.300 makes you think that they're thinking a certain way, even if you're wrong. So she puts it in a

00:10:29.840 personal form of a question. What if in the middle of the night, my home is broken into? All right? This is

00:10:37.900 very important. She's putting herself in the movie. She's not saying, what if something happens to

00:10:43.040 somebody, and somebody needs to do something? No. Alison Camerato said, what if my home is broken

00:10:51.860 into? She put herself in the movie. Now watch the response. And Bender said, yes, I hear that loud and

00:11:01.480 clear from a lot of my neighbors. And I know, and myself too, and I know that that comes from a place

00:11:09.020 of privilege. So that was the moment that Democrats lost CNN. They lost CNN. Because you could watch,

00:11:25.660 you had to see the look on Camerato's face. Now again, you can't really tell what people are thinking

00:11:34.140 by a look on their face. But I'll tell you the impression I got. Because remember, when I talk

00:11:40.400 about persuasion, it's not about what's right. It's what impression did you get? And the impression

00:11:46.420 I got was Alison Camerato saying, thinking, that doesn't work for me. That doesn't work for me.

00:11:56.660 That's what I saw in her face. Again, I warn you, you can't read other people's minds. She may have

00:12:02.520 had a completely different thought. But that's how I received it. It looked like CNN was lost

00:12:08.580 on that day. Because seriously, what CNN host with a good income is going to say,

00:12:16.820 yeah, that's a good idea. If somebody is trying to break in my front door that there's nobody to call.

00:12:24.000 There's nobody on CNN. Not even Don Lemon is going to get behind that. If you've lost Don Lemon,

00:12:33.060 well, you've lost the election. Now, of course, Don Lemon is not going to side with having more

00:12:42.500 police. But I don't think even he could say directly and on camera, you know, this would be a

00:12:48.680 better world if somebody is breaking into my house and I don't have anybody to call. That would be an

00:12:53.060 upgrade. I don't think he's going to say that. So I don't know how they can recover from that. But

00:13:01.460 despite all that, it turns out that the latest poll numbers on Trump versus Biden is that Biden is

00:13:10.800 just blowing him away. So the difference between Biden and Trump and the national polls just widened.

00:13:18.280 It widened. Trump just had the best week of his life and the polls widened. Now, when I say it's the

00:13:26.200 best week of his life, I don't mean that people realize that. I'm just saying I realize it because

00:13:32.540 he did get us through the pandemic. And I think he he called the timing about right. Pushing for the

00:13:38.980 opening looks like exactly the right thing. He was criticized for it. Being tough on China looks 0.99

00:13:46.340 smarter every day. The economy will probably pick up and Trump is very directly involved in at least the

00:13:54.780 psychology of that. I don't think Trump's ever had a better week. But I also don't think it

00:14:00.680 registered that way to everybody. I'm not sure that intellectually, people realize what a good week

00:14:06.540 this was. Now, when I say a good week, that includes the looting. Because although the president did not

00:14:14.240 do something directly to stop the looting, think about the fact that he brought in the National Guard

00:14:20.160 and it kind of stopped at the same time. Am I wrong that the looting kind of went from a lot to not

00:14:27.880 too much immediately upon the National Guard showing up? I think that's true. I mean, it feels true,

00:14:35.100 even if it's not. And if we're talking about persuasion, what feels true is right. So I think the

00:14:40.940 president actually had one of the highest, almost borders ungifted, honestly, performances, with the

00:14:51.580 exception, just so you know, that I'm not just praising Trump for everything. I think they

00:14:58.260 completely blew the messaging on a lot of this stuff. Everything from the pandemic messaging to the

00:15:04.940 the protester, the George Floyd stuff, I don't think the messaging was good. So I'm not just

00:15:11.080 complimenting everything he does just mindlessly. I'm telling you that if you're watching,

00:15:16.300 if you're watching looting on television, and your choices are the pro law and order guy, or the

00:15:23.000 who knows what guy, the pro law and order guy is just going to get a bump from watching crime on TV.

00:15:30.260 That has nothing to do with his performance. He's just had to exist and be that guy. And it's going

00:15:35.760 to help him. Likewise, the economy going up will help Trump. Likewise, you know, the coronavirus just

00:15:43.920 getting in our rearview mirror, at least a little bit will help him. So I think he had his strongest

00:15:48.780 week, but his poll numbers are the weakest. And I have, I have speculated that this is the biggest

00:15:56.580 practical joke in the history of politics, that Republicans are literally lying to pollsters

00:16:03.180 in a massive numbers. I feel that's true. I can't prove it. It's just an instinct. But I feel it's

00:16:12.060 true. I also feel like it's a long time until election day. And I don't know that polls are telling

00:16:19.240 us as much today as, as they should, because, you know, they're pretty, pretty frothy at this point.

00:16:27.960 All right. So let's talk about those protesters washing the feet of Black Lives Matter leaders. And I 0.92

00:16:37.240 guess police were washing the feet of black religious leaders as well. Not all the police, not all the 0.88

00:16:44.980 protesters, obviously. But here was my take on that. It's pretty good persuasion. Because you can't look

00:16:50.580 away, it gets your attention. And it shakes the box. Like everything that you think about people and power

00:16:58.780 and racism and who thinks what and does what, this just shakes it all up. It just makes you think, what? And it

00:17:07.540 gets you mad or excited or you put yourself in the place. But the trick of this is, if you have enough

00:17:13.700 people, there's always somebody who's willing to do anything. If you have a million people, you can

00:17:18.740 get somebody out of the million people to do literally anything. You can get them to, you do

00:17:25.560 harm to themselves, just anything, if you have enough people. So when you're watching some small

00:17:30.740 number of people do something that you wouldn't do, it doesn't mean anything. It just means that

00:17:36.400 you're seeing a small number of people do something you wouldn't do. That's it. So it doesn't have any

00:17:40.960 meaning beyond the fact that it really shakes up your head. So persuasion-wise, I give it an A+.

00:17:46.680 Because the madder or the more upset you are about it, the better it works. That is its power. Its

00:17:55.900 power is that it upsets you. So if I'm just looking at it from a persuasion as a technique, A+.

00:18:05.760 Yeah, if it disgusted you, if it angered you, if you couldn't turn away, that's what makes it work.

00:18:13.220 So I wouldn't worry about it becoming a trend. You don't have to worry about it being a trend.

00:18:21.480 It's never going to be guaranteed. It'll never be required. It'll always be optional. So this is

00:18:28.540 the power that the media has. They can take something that's unusual and give it a lot of

00:18:34.620 attention until you think it's some kind of a normal thing or it's the beginning of a trend or

00:18:39.700 it's happening everywhere. It's the smallest little thing that some very unique people could do but you

00:18:48.080 couldn't do. Nobody's going to ask you to do it. It just doesn't matter. But persuasion-wise,

00:18:53.140 it was strong. I swear to God, almost all of our problems in society are because we can't

00:19:02.340 calculate percentages right. Am I wrong about that? If we could calculate percentages, meaning

00:19:10.320 that we knew the right numerator and the right denominator, if we could always get that right

00:19:16.840 and then calculate it right and know which one is the one that matters, I don't think we'd

00:19:21.500 have nearly as many problems in the world. It's like we can't calculate anything. Right. I'll give

00:19:27.160 you some specifics on that. For example, a guy who follows me on Twitter, which is no way to

00:19:40.260 describe a person because that's the least important part of his personality is following me on Twitter,

00:19:45.620 but I don't know anything else about him. So other than his name is Leonidas Johnson. He may or may

00:19:52.400 not be watching this Periscope and he's African-American, which you need to know for the purpose of the

00:19:57.660 story. And he tweeted this and I presume he leans conservative. He says, for every 10,000 black

00:20:06.680 people arrested for violent crimes, three are killed. For every 10,000 white people arrested for violent

00:20:13.980 crime, four are killed. And then Leonidas goes on. He says, I'm going to keep tweeting this until

00:20:21.100 someone can explain to me how this is possible if there is truly pervasive racial bias in policing.

00:20:29.340 So, so he's a black man. So he can tweet this. Do you know what I can't do? 0.98

00:20:36.320 Tweet that. I can't tweet that. I don't have, I don't have freedom of speech in a practical sense.

00:20:47.980 I have freedom of speech in a legal sense. I can say anything I want, but in a practical sense,

00:20:53.440 my life would just be worse if I had been the one who tweeted this, but because Leonidas is black, 0.94

00:21:00.800 he can tweet it and then I can retweet it and I'm okay. So I did that. But I certainly don't have

00:21:07.340 freedom of speech the way black people do. Let me just say that directly. I have less freedom of 1.00

00:21:14.340 speech than black people. Would you agree? Is that, is that even controversial? Because it's true 1.00

00:21:21.540 that black people can say more things in public with less repercussions than I can. It's not even 0.98

00:21:28.260 close really. And now regardless of whether I'm right or wrong, which is a separate question,

00:21:34.460 there, there are just whole classes of things, including data. I wouldn't even be able to talk

00:21:40.740 about data in public. Think about that, that I can't talk about data in public. Now I've told you

00:21:50.320 before that one of my advantages is that I have, I wasn't going to swear today. So I'll give you the PG

00:21:57.140 version, uh, that I have F you money, meaning that the worst thing that could happen to me as I

00:22:04.320 retire and live on the money I already made. But because I'm still, you know, in the workforce and I

00:22:13.040 would still like to have an actual job. I like to be productive. I like to, I like to create things

00:22:19.460 that people want and pay for. And I would like to be paid for those things because it just works better

00:22:24.500 that way. So I'm finding that I'm becoming, um, increasingly uncancellable. If you have F you

00:22:34.020 money, you're uncancellable. But if you also care about your ongoing career, you're not, you're not

00:22:41.200 completely uncancellable because I'd still like to be a cartoonist. I'd still like to be able to come

00:22:47.440 on video and talk to you. I still like people to buy my books. So I'm not completely uncancellable,

00:22:53.900 but I'm getting closer because I always talk to you about locals, the new platform, uh, which I've

00:23:01.360 joined now locals is a subscription platform. So, and it's growing. So it's becoming a larger percentage

00:23:08.940 of my overall income at the moment. It's still the minority part of my overall income, but it's growing

00:23:16.020 pretty quickly when it reaches a point where it's competitive with my income in general, meaning

00:23:22.160 that even if I lost everything else, I would still have a real job. It would just be limited to locals,

00:23:28.640 which would be fine if that was a big enough community. And I'm becoming increasingly uncancellable.

00:23:36.780 And I don't know what that does because I haven't been there before. I've never been in a place where I

00:23:44.280 not only have F you money, but I have an F you job. I've never had that before. I've only had the

00:23:53.300 money, not a job that was invulnerable. And I'm getting close to that. I'm getting closer and closer

00:23:59.960 to being actually invulnerable. And I'm wondering if at some point I would have freedom of speech.

00:24:06.460 I'm getting close. And it's kind of exciting because I would like to be able to have freedom

00:24:11.920 of speech the way black Americans do, the way women do. Women less than black Americans. But 1.00

00:24:18.220 someday, God willing, I will have freedom of speech. I don't know if that will make me speak

00:24:27.040 any differently. I actually don't. But it's kind of exciting. I got real excited the other day when I

00:24:32.580 thought, hey, are you kidding me? I could actually tweet some data that was actually just useful and

00:24:42.440 true. I could just tweet true data and I don't have to lose my career. Could be good. Could be good.

00:24:52.760 Anyway, in response to Leonidas' tweet, there was, of course, lots of interaction on it. And he went into

00:24:59.380 some detail in the thread, which I would recommend to you. And so look for it in my Twitter thread. I

00:25:05.080 just tweeted it this morning. So, all right. So starting with the claim that for every 10,000 black

00:25:10.540 people arrested for violent crimes. Now, this is the key phrase here, violent crimes, three are killed.

00:25:17.000 For every 10,000 white people arrested for, again, violent crimes, four are killed. Now, of course, 0.69

00:25:23.600 the big question mark is, well, what about nonviolent crimes? What about all the people getting

00:25:29.180 hassled and, I don't know, abused, beat up, humiliated, all those other bad things for nonviolent crimes?

00:25:37.980 What about all that? I mean, that's got to be part of the equation, doesn't it? And so I don't know

00:25:43.400 the answer to that. But I tweeted back that which group gets stopped and hassled the most by police.

00:25:52.700 Because let's say these statistics are true, and let's take out the violent crime. Let's say that it was

00:25:58.660 true that statistically, slightly more white people are killed, not even slightly, but more white 0.73

00:26:06.400 people are killed by police than black people. But what if black people encounter the police 10 times 0.67

00:26:14.820 more? What if there's just more police presence in black communities, because they tend, at least in 1.00

00:26:21.100 the urban areas, they're going to be lower income. More crime comes with lower income, so there's going

00:26:26.340 to be more police. So how do you factor that in? So is it the whole story that it's the percentage of

00:26:34.340 people arrested for violent crimes? It's not really the whole story, because you have to look at, you

00:26:40.240 know, who's getting stopped and why. Is there a racial component to that? And most Americans apparently

00:26:46.100 think there is a racial component to that. And it would be hard to debate. I mean, it's hard to argue

00:26:52.840 that there's not. Who could really argue that? I would think that race has a big impact on who gets

00:26:59.440 stopped. Now, but which doesn't mean that the people doing the stopping are racist, because

00:27:06.740 apparently there's not much difference between how black police officers and white police officers treat

00:27:12.660 anybody. If black and white police officers are basically the same in how they treat people,

00:27:20.060 it's kind of hard to find the racial component when you take that into consideration.

00:27:25.760 But what Leonidas argued in response to other people, you know, questioning the totality of the

00:27:34.060 stuff, is that Leonidas makes a really good rational point. And it goes like this, that people being

00:27:43.200 stopped for violent crimes is not the whole story. So he'd be in complete agreement that he's taking a

00:27:50.400 slice of the whole story. But he says quite reasonably, that if this racial, if the racial bias was what

00:28:00.960 people say it is, this is exactly where it would show up the strongest. I don't know that that's

00:28:08.060 true. I also don't know that statistics are accurate. Because where does statistics come from? The police,

00:28:15.140 right? So is it possible that the police aren't good at accurately, you know, documenting who got killed

00:28:23.980 for what? Maybe? I mean, that wouldn't be surprising. But it's an interesting point.

00:28:31.080 Leonidas says that it would show up there, and it doesn't.

00:28:36.740 Is that persuasive to you? I wouldn't say it's completely persuasive. But I would say it's exactly

00:28:44.180 the right question. Isn't it? It's exactly the right question. Because we should understand that.

00:28:49.680 No matter what the answer is, even if the answer is the data was bad, I'd like to understand that

00:28:54.940 for sure. All right.

00:29:00.880 Van Jones tweeted

00:29:02.300 today that women leaders globally kicked

00:29:06.340 hashtag coronavirus in the ass.

00:29:09.480 Male leaders across the board blew it.

00:29:12.780 Hashtag fax, hashtag pandemic,

00:29:15.780 etc. And then he linked to a story on that.

00:29:18.160 Now,

00:29:20.140 was that helpful? To say that women leaders 0.90

00:29:23.780 did a good job and male leaders

00:29:25.640 did not? Because

00:29:27.560 I don't feel like what we needed was more

00:29:29.840 sexism. Because I'm pretty

00:29:31.960 sure that you can't document

00:29:33.400 that their gender is what made them 0.99

00:29:35.700 more successful.

00:29:37.320 One of the successful female leaders

00:29:39.500 was New Zealand.

00:29:42.860 I don't want

00:29:43.700 to be unkind to New Zealand,

00:29:45.920 and I don't want to be unkind

00:29:47.500 to the leader, who's a woman, 0.71

00:29:49.740 who apparently is

00:29:51.300 leading a country that

00:29:52.720 claims to have

00:29:53.700 actually eliminated

00:29:55.400 coronavirus.

00:29:56.580 That's pretty good.

00:29:58.180 But it needs to be said,

00:30:00.180 it's an island.

00:30:02.580 It's an island.

00:30:04.540 And

00:30:05.180 it could be

00:30:06.620 that once again,

00:30:08.980 humans are bad 1.00

00:30:09.840 at calculating

00:30:10.460 percentages.

00:30:15.820 And

00:30:16.380 do you think it's

00:30:19.300 fair or accurate

00:30:20.640 or helpful

00:30:21.220 to say that women 0.99

00:30:22.220 beat the coronavirus

00:30:23.660 but male leaders 0.97

00:30:24.860 blew it?

00:30:25.820 To me,

00:30:26.760 that feels like

00:30:27.820 just sexism. 1.00

00:30:29.980 Because

00:30:30.540 I don't think you can

00:30:32.560 make that claim

00:30:33.300 based on the data.

00:30:34.220 Now,

00:30:36.120 here's what's

00:30:36.700 ironic about this.

00:30:38.360 Literally the day before,

00:30:39.760 I was thinking to myself,

00:30:41.160 who's the only person

00:30:42.540 who would have

00:30:44.180 enough credibility

00:30:45.060 to fix the,

00:30:47.280 you know,

00:30:47.680 to do something

00:30:48.440 constructive

00:30:49.020 about the protests

00:30:50.500 and race relations

00:30:52.600 in this country

00:30:53.260 and maybe come up

00:30:54.140 with something practical

00:30:55.060 that we could work on.

00:30:56.840 You know,

00:30:57.020 come up with some

00:30:57.700 specific proposals

00:30:58.820 we could toss around

00:31:00.640 and see what we can do.

00:31:02.060 And I thought,

00:31:02.720 well,

00:31:02.900 Van Jones.

00:31:03.480 Van Jones is probably

00:31:05.780 one of the few people

00:31:06.900 in the world

00:31:07.500 who can,

00:31:09.800 well,

00:31:10.080 he's bilingual,

00:31:11.920 meaning that he can

00:31:12.800 talk to black people,

00:31:13.840 he can talk to white people

00:31:14.860 and he knows what they mean.

00:31:16.300 I don't know

00:31:17.140 how many people

00:31:17.780 there are

00:31:18.160 in the whole world

00:31:19.400 who have credibility,

00:31:22.160 ability to communicate,

00:31:24.520 have the interest,

00:31:25.680 have the aptitude,

00:31:27.500 the history,

00:31:28.560 the history of success,

00:31:30.360 especially with

00:31:31.160 prison reform.

00:31:32.580 I mean,

00:31:33.600 really,

00:31:34.120 come up with

00:31:34.780 one other person

00:31:36.360 on the planet

00:31:37.140 who would be

00:31:38.740 more perfect

00:31:39.400 for being in the middle

00:31:40.740 of this

00:31:41.100 and getting it fixed.

00:31:42.460 Now,

00:31:42.920 in the comments,

00:31:43.560 somebody's saying Kanye.

00:31:45.000 Kanye is a force

00:31:46.400 of nature

00:31:46.920 and one of the most

00:31:48.160 productive ones

00:31:50.200 you'll ever see

00:31:51.220 in lots of ways,

00:31:52.900 socially as well as

00:31:54.000 economically productive.

00:31:55.240 but I don't know

00:31:57.440 that Kanye

00:31:58.180 is the right one

00:31:59.140 to dig in

00:31:59.920 and get into

00:32:00.580 some details

00:32:01.360 about how to fix

00:32:02.760 policing.

00:32:04.220 I see Kanye

00:32:05.580 as more of a,

00:32:06.700 almost a spiritual

00:32:08.900 kind of a leader,

00:32:10.600 not a,

00:32:12.080 you know,

00:32:12.500 nuts and bolts,

00:32:13.660 here's my policy

00:32:14.600 kind of a leader.

00:32:16.180 And if you want

00:32:17.160 to get down

00:32:17.620 into some real

00:32:18.620 practical stuff,

00:32:20.740 I'm thinking

00:32:21.540 Van Jones.

00:32:23.120 I'm thinking

00:32:23.880 Van Jones would be

00:32:25.220 the best choice

00:32:26.720 I can think of.

00:32:28.220 Can you think

00:32:28.780 of a better one?

00:32:31.540 I'm looking at

00:32:32.380 your comments

00:32:32.860 to see if anybody

00:32:33.560 suggests anybody.

00:32:35.420 Larry Elder

00:32:36.220 would be too

00:32:36.960 associated with

00:32:37.940 the right.

00:32:39.740 You really need

00:32:40.780 somebody who is

00:32:41.440 more associated

00:32:42.320 with the left

00:32:43.240 but knows how

00:32:44.840 to work with

00:32:45.420 the right.

00:32:46.060 And it really

00:32:46.580 just sort of

00:32:47.460 comes down to

00:32:48.360 Van Jones.

00:32:50.500 So I hope

00:32:50.860 he gets in

00:32:51.280 the game.

00:32:52.280 But my

00:32:52.940 friendly advice

00:32:54.020 with affection

00:32:54.920 to Van Jones

00:32:56.560 because I think

00:32:57.560 he's one of the

00:32:58.040 most productive

00:32:58.600 people in the

00:33:00.500 country right now.

00:33:03.620 I don't think

00:33:04.600 the sexism

00:33:05.160 helps us.

00:33:05.880 We probably

00:33:06.520 didn't need that.

00:33:07.940 Alright,

00:33:08.260 here's my

00:33:09.020 favorite story

00:33:09.940 that didn't

00:33:11.440 get many retweets.

00:33:13.580 Now the fact

00:33:14.460 that this

00:33:14.840 didn't get many

00:33:15.620 retweets

00:33:16.180 compared to

00:33:16.760 everything else

00:33:17.340 I tweeted today

00:33:18.100 tells me that

00:33:19.520 the message

00:33:20.040 is not

00:33:20.580 getting through

00:33:21.560 or it's

00:33:22.740 getting through

00:33:23.300 and it's

00:33:23.640 being rejected.

00:33:25.820 Now I'm

00:33:26.300 going to tell

00:33:26.680 you something

00:33:27.160 that will be

00:33:27.720 one of the

00:33:28.080 most important

00:33:28.780 things you'll

00:33:29.300 ever hear.

00:33:30.520 Indeed,

00:33:31.120 it's so

00:33:31.620 important

00:33:32.080 it could

00:33:33.180 end racism.

00:33:35.660 I'll just

00:33:36.180 let that hang

00:33:36.820 in the air

00:33:37.140 for a moment.

00:33:38.320 I'm going to

00:33:38.660 give you a

00:33:39.140 suggestion,

00:33:39.820 a persuasion

00:33:40.560 suggestion

00:33:41.120 that's so

00:33:42.580 powerful

00:33:43.080 it could

00:33:44.420 completely

00:33:45.020 end racism.

00:33:46.700 It's a pretty

00:33:47.280 big claim,

00:33:47.960 isn't it?

00:33:48.280 Let me tell

00:33:49.920 you the

00:33:50.180 story.

00:33:51.260 Buffalo

00:33:51.660 teenager,

00:33:52.640 18 years

00:33:53.320 old,

00:33:54.700 who is

00:33:55.520 African

00:33:55.860 American,

00:33:56.440 which is

00:33:56.760 important to

00:33:57.460 the story.

00:33:59.160 After

00:33:59.700 Buffalo was

00:34:00.380 hit by

00:34:00.860 the looting,

00:34:02.160 I guess

00:34:02.500 there was

00:34:02.800 glass all

00:34:03.380 over the

00:34:03.700 streets.

00:34:04.840 And this

00:34:05.180 18-year-old

00:34:05.860 gentleman

00:34:07.980 decides to

00:34:09.700 just on his

00:34:10.200 own go out

00:34:10.720 with a broom

00:34:11.280 and start

00:34:11.880 sweeping the 0.57

00:34:12.540 streets.

00:34:12.940 And he

00:34:13.680 spent 10

00:34:14.300 hours cleaning

00:34:15.840 the street

00:34:16.380 by himself.

00:34:18.080 Just one

00:34:19.280 guy by

00:34:19.960 himself and

00:34:21.060 a broom

00:34:21.460 cleaning the

00:34:22.400 street.

00:34:23.600 What do you

00:34:24.240 think happened?

00:34:25.780 Have you

00:34:26.360 ever heard of

00:34:27.120 the power of

00:34:28.600 reciprocity?

00:34:30.380 I talk about

00:34:31.100 this, right?

00:34:32.880 And it's

00:34:33.520 documented, right?

00:34:34.580 It's in the

00:34:34.860 book Influence

00:34:36.440 by Cialdini.

00:34:37.520 So it's been

00:34:38.040 studied.

00:34:38.760 This is not

00:34:39.440 some new

00:34:40.280 agey kind

00:34:41.060 of let's

00:34:41.500 all get

00:34:42.180 along kind

00:34:42.680 of thing.

00:34:43.300 It's been

00:34:43.820 studied, and

00:34:44.520 it's scientifically

00:34:45.180 true, that if

00:34:46.720 you just give

00:34:47.580 somebody something

00:34:48.460 and ask

00:34:49.500 nothing in

00:34:50.080 return, the

00:34:51.440 odds of them

00:34:52.180 being flexible

00:34:52.960 with you in

00:34:53.520 the future and

00:34:54.460 wanting to

00:34:54.920 work with

00:34:55.260 you and do

00:34:56.440 good things

00:34:56.920 for you that

00:34:57.400 you didn't

00:34:57.740 ask for, goes

00:34:59.160 through the

00:34:59.560 roof.

00:35:00.660 Now, I don't

00:35:01.400 know that

00:35:01.760 reciprocity works

00:35:02.900 everywhere all

00:35:03.820 the same.

00:35:04.540 There could be

00:35:04.980 a cultural

00:35:05.560 element to it.

00:35:07.040 But I can

00:35:07.980 tell you, as

00:35:08.700 your representative

00:35:09.400 white person,

00:35:11.060 that, and

00:35:12.820 again, I

00:35:13.460 assume it

00:35:13.840 works with

00:35:14.240 everybody, but

00:35:15.140 I can only

00:35:15.640 speak to the

00:35:16.280 group that I

00:35:17.020 have the most

00:35:17.940 information about.

00:35:20.040 Among white 0.98

00:35:20.980 people, reciprocity

00:35:22.300 is like a

00:35:23.620 freaking nuclear

00:35:24.400 weapon.

00:35:26.160 We can't

00:35:27.440 ignore it.

00:35:28.700 We can't.

00:35:29.660 If you do

00:35:30.380 something good

00:35:30.980 for me, I

00:35:32.860 just got to

00:35:33.940 return the

00:35:34.420 favor.

00:35:35.040 I got to.

00:35:36.580 And if I

00:35:37.500 can't find

00:35:38.020 any way to

00:35:38.540 do it right

00:35:38.920 away, it

00:35:40.140 will bother

00:35:40.900 me for

00:35:41.320 years, years,

00:35:43.100 literally, it'll

00:35:43.800 bother me for

00:35:44.400 years if I

00:35:45.760 can't pay back

00:35:46.500 a kindness.

00:35:49.140 So what

00:35:49.740 happened to

00:35:50.200 the 18-year-old

00:35:51.140 African-American

00:35:51.960 guy who just

00:35:53.560 saw a glass in

00:35:54.340 the streets and

00:35:54.960 said, you know,

00:35:55.460 it would be a

00:35:55.780 better world if I

00:35:56.520 just swept up

00:35:57.160 this glass?

00:35:58.360 Spent 10

00:35:59.400 hours doing,

00:36:02.240 if you've

00:36:02.640 ever swept for

00:36:03.440 10 hours,

00:36:05.100 because I

00:36:05.740 have, not

00:36:06.740 10 hours, but

00:36:07.480 I've swept for

00:36:08.160 hours, and

00:36:09.700 it's hard after

00:36:11.240 the first few

00:36:11.960 hours.

00:36:13.060 Here's what

00:36:13.660 happened.

00:36:16.080 One gentleman

00:36:16.980 gave him a

00:36:18.000 car, I

00:36:19.560 think a

00:36:20.740 Mustang.

00:36:21.520 It was a

00:36:22.660 classic one.

00:36:24.120 It was a

00:36:24.460 few years old

00:36:25.080 because he

00:36:26.460 checked his

00:36:26.920 social media,

00:36:28.200 the person who

00:36:28.780 gave him the

00:36:29.220 car, and

00:36:30.200 found that he

00:36:30.780 said he was

00:36:31.240 saving up to

00:36:31.800 get a car.

00:36:32.240 So somebody

00:36:33.680 just gave

00:36:34.440 him a

00:36:35.720 Mustang.

00:36:36.900 Now here's

00:36:37.400 the fun part

00:36:38.000 of the story.

00:36:39.460 His late

00:36:40.300 mother had

00:36:41.900 that same

00:36:42.400 car.

00:36:44.160 And so it

00:36:44.640 wasn't just

00:36:45.280 a car, it

00:36:46.900 was like

00:36:47.220 really a

00:36:48.060 meaningful,

00:36:49.440 who's

00:36:49.900 programming the

00:36:50.680 simulation kind

00:36:51.500 of a car.

00:36:52.100 Of all the

00:36:52.800 cars in the

00:36:53.340 world, he

00:36:55.960 was given

00:36:56.480 as a gift

00:36:57.280 the car

00:36:58.840 that had

00:37:00.740 the most

00:37:01.160 meaning to

00:37:01.720 it.

00:37:02.700 That was

00:37:03.160 a coincidence.

00:37:05.060 He gets

00:37:05.660 a car, and

00:37:06.380 then somebody

00:37:06.800 hears that

00:37:07.240 story.

00:37:08.140 And they

00:37:08.440 say, what

00:37:08.780 good is a

00:37:09.120 car without

00:37:09.520 car insurance?

00:37:11.140 So somebody

00:37:11.840 bought him

00:37:12.200 insurance.

00:37:14.040 So he

00:37:14.540 made a

00:37:15.160 brand new,

00:37:15.680 not a

00:37:16.020 brand new,

00:37:16.460 it was a

00:37:16.660 used, but

00:37:17.140 it was a

00:37:17.440 classic

00:37:17.940 Mustang,

00:37:18.900 maybe better

00:37:19.920 than a new

00:37:20.380 car, depending

00:37:20.980 on what kind

00:37:22.260 of cars you

00:37:22.660 like.

00:37:24.020 And then

00:37:24.620 somebody paid

00:37:27.020 for his

00:37:27.360 college

00:37:27.660 education.

00:37:28.300 they gave

00:37:31.480 him a

00:37:31.740 car, car

00:37:33.060 insurance, and

00:37:35.300 they paid for

00:37:35.860 college.

00:37:37.860 Because he

00:37:38.520 spent ten

00:37:39.220 hours sweeping

00:37:41.360 the streets and

00:37:43.380 asking for

00:37:44.440 nothing.

00:37:47.040 My cat is

00:37:48.340 visiting, if you

00:37:49.000 see a tail go

00:37:49.740 by.

00:37:50.400 He asked for

00:37:51.280 nothing, and

00:37:52.880 he got a car,

00:37:54.040 car insurance,

00:37:55.120 and a free

00:37:56.840 education.

00:37:58.360 Now, how

00:37:59.240 often does

00:37:59.800 this work?

00:38:01.140 Well, it

00:38:01.720 doesn't work

00:38:02.260 like that

00:38:03.040 too often, like

00:38:04.320 you're not

00:38:04.640 going to get a

00:38:05.100 car and a

00:38:05.640 college education

00:38:06.420 just for

00:38:06.900 helping people

00:38:07.440 out.

00:38:08.040 But the

00:38:08.700 concept of

00:38:09.440 reciprocity

00:38:10.240 will work

00:38:10.920 every time.

00:38:13.680 What are

00:38:14.080 white people

00:38:14.700 doing to

00:38:15.400 try to make

00:38:15.880 the world

00:38:16.440 better?

00:38:18.000 Are you

00:38:18.280 watching the

00:38:18.760 protests?

00:38:20.260 The white 0.76

00:38:20.780 people are

00:38:22.340 washing the

00:38:23.200 feet of

00:38:24.820 Black Lives

00:38:25.440 Matter people 0.66

00:38:26.140 and the

00:38:28.000 leaders of

00:38:28.720 black churches.

00:38:30.680 Why are

00:38:31.400 they doing

00:38:31.740 that?

00:38:32.800 Well, who

00:38:33.900 knows?

00:38:34.400 You can't

00:38:35.060 really see

00:38:36.800 in their

00:38:37.180 minds, but

00:38:38.560 it is a

00:38:39.060 reciprocity

00:38:39.820 play.

00:38:41.340 Because if

00:38:42.200 you're watching

00:38:42.720 that and

00:38:43.420 you're black, 0.99

00:38:44.280 let's say

00:38:44.660 you're a

00:38:44.920 black leader

00:38:45.500 and some

00:38:46.420 white people

00:38:47.080 said, can

00:38:47.620 we wash

00:38:48.100 your feet

00:38:48.500 on camera?

00:38:49.580 And you

00:38:49.900 said yes,

00:38:51.300 and it

00:38:51.660 happened.

00:38:53.320 How do

00:38:54.000 you feel?

00:38:54.820 Do you

00:38:56.880 say, ah,

00:38:57.660 suckers, 0.96

00:38:59.060 you suckers,

00:39:00.520 ha, ha, ha,

00:39:01.080 that changed

00:39:01.660 nothing?

00:39:02.640 You might

00:39:03.460 try to feel

00:39:04.220 that way.

00:39:05.360 You might

00:39:06.380 try to

00:39:07.600 feel like

00:39:08.800 these stupid

00:39:09.600 white people,

00:39:10.360 they don't

00:39:10.680 know that

00:39:11.720 this doesn't

00:39:12.280 work, but

00:39:12.840 sure, I'll

00:39:13.440 humiliate

00:39:14.020 them, I'll

00:39:15.100 let them 0.55

00:39:15.400 wash my

00:39:15.900 feet.

00:39:16.720 I don't

00:39:17.300 know what

00:39:17.620 you're

00:39:17.820 thinking

00:39:18.220 intellectually,

00:39:19.700 but I

00:39:20.740 gotta tell

00:39:21.220 you, it

00:39:22.060 probably

00:39:22.680 worked.

00:39:23.300 because

00:39:24.480 reciprocity

00:39:25.360 doesn't

00:39:26.000 ever not

00:39:26.620 work.

00:39:27.680 It works

00:39:28.400 every time.

00:39:30.480 So,

00:39:31.580 should, if

00:39:32.440 the Black

00:39:35.260 Lives Matter

00:39:35.800 people wanted

00:39:36.820 equality,

00:39:38.740 there is a

00:39:40.460 four-lane

00:39:41.500 highway with

00:39:42.480 no traffic

00:39:43.220 to get

00:39:44.140 there.

00:39:44.820 It's called

00:39:45.560 reciprocity.

00:39:46.420 but, could

00:39:49.700 you use a

00:39:50.540 reciprocity

00:39:51.340 strategy if

00:39:53.100 you were,

00:39:54.020 let's say,

00:39:55.920 still suffering,

00:39:57.040 in your

00:39:57.260 opinion, from

00:39:58.640 the effects

00:39:59.180 of slavery?

00:40:02.680 Right?

00:40:03.480 If you still

00:40:04.700 felt oppressed

00:40:06.140 today, and

00:40:07.160 you felt it

00:40:07.660 was the legacy

00:40:09.020 of slavery,

00:40:10.160 and all the

00:40:11.480 bad Jim Crow 0.99

00:40:13.580 laws, and

00:40:14.340 everything in

00:40:15.660 history, if

00:40:16.940 that's what's

00:40:17.500 on your

00:40:17.840 mind, and

00:40:19.100 that's sort

00:40:19.520 of defining

00:40:20.080 your worldview,

00:40:21.260 how in the

00:40:21.900 world could

00:40:23.780 you ever use

00:40:24.420 reciprocity as

00:40:25.640 a tool?

00:40:26.580 It just

00:40:26.960 doesn't feel

00:40:27.440 like giving

00:40:27.960 something is

00:40:29.200 the right

00:40:29.540 solution, when

00:40:31.020 the problem

00:40:31.500 is people

00:40:32.900 took too

00:40:33.400 much.

00:40:34.700 Right?

00:40:35.800 I mean, the

00:40:36.340 slavery is

00:40:37.380 somebody taking

00:40:38.100 too much from

00:40:38.900 you, your

00:40:39.360 very liberty,

00:40:40.640 your life,

00:40:41.400 your safety,

00:40:42.880 everything.

00:40:43.160 slavery is

00:40:45.220 taking everything

00:40:45.980 from you.

00:40:46.940 So how do

00:40:47.340 you get from

00:40:47.860 that mindset

00:40:48.520 something that's

00:40:49.840 still rippling

00:40:50.480 through history?

00:40:51.440 How do you

00:40:51.660 get from that

00:40:52.120 mindset to

00:40:53.360 the most

00:40:54.060 productive and

00:40:55.760 reliable

00:40:56.520 persuasion

00:40:57.740 technique in

00:40:58.420 the world,

00:40:59.780 reciprocity?

00:41:01.480 Well, I

00:41:02.060 would look at

00:41:02.720 an 18-year-old

00:41:04.820 buffalo teen

00:41:05.920 who did that.

00:41:08.440 He actually

00:41:09.120 did that.

00:41:10.180 He was born

00:41:10.840 into the same

00:41:11.460 world you were

00:41:12.120 born into.

00:41:13.460 Slavery is

00:41:14.700 still a

00:41:15.140 historical fact

00:41:16.340 in his

00:41:16.700 world, right?

00:41:19.080 This 18-year-old

00:41:20.340 was not born

00:41:21.020 into a world

00:41:21.700 where slavery

00:41:22.420 never happened.

00:41:23.960 Nope.

00:41:24.660 He was not

00:41:25.400 born into a

00:41:26.080 world where

00:41:26.740 black people

00:41:27.440 are treated

00:41:27.860 exactly the

00:41:28.660 same as

00:41:29.000 white people.

00:41:30.060 Nope.

00:41:30.700 He wasn't

00:41:31.260 born into

00:41:31.660 that world.

00:41:32.520 Wasn't born

00:41:33.100 into a world

00:41:33.820 where everything

00:41:34.740 is fair.

00:41:36.180 Nope.

00:41:36.980 Nope.

00:41:37.700 Wasn't born

00:41:38.380 into a world

00:41:39.020 where racism

00:41:39.700 doesn't exist.

00:41:40.540 exists.

00:41:41.820 Nope.

00:41:42.660 Nope.

00:41:43.500 He had

00:41:44.040 every obstacle

00:41:45.080 in the world

00:41:46.240 against him.

00:41:47.960 Every obstacle

00:41:49.160 in the world

00:41:50.260 against him.

00:41:51.820 And he fixed

00:41:52.620 it with a

00:41:54.380 broom.

00:41:55.800 A broom.

00:41:57.700 He changed

00:41:58.740 his life

00:41:59.560 with a

00:42:01.460 broom

00:42:01.900 in 10

00:42:03.100 hours.

00:42:04.500 And if you

00:42:05.600 had asked me

00:42:06.180 ahead of time,

00:42:07.420 Scott, do you

00:42:07.920 think this is a

00:42:08.520 good idea?

00:42:09.000 Will this

00:42:09.520 work?

00:42:10.500 I would have

00:42:11.340 said, not

00:42:12.780 only will it

00:42:13.440 work, it

00:42:15.120 could change

00:42:15.640 your life.

00:42:17.100 Might even

00:42:18.000 change the

00:42:19.140 world.

00:42:20.820 I doubt it.

00:42:22.360 Because I, you

00:42:23.100 know, I just

00:42:23.760 don't think it's

00:42:24.220 realistic to

00:42:26.200 find too many

00:42:27.480 people that

00:42:28.100 have as much

00:42:29.640 on the ball

00:42:30.280 as this 18

00:42:31.040 year old has.

00:42:31.900 This 18

00:42:32.720 year old is

00:42:33.580 just operating

00:42:34.240 at a different

00:42:34.780 level.

00:42:35.220 If this

00:42:36.920 guy doesn't

00:42:37.840 run for

00:42:38.600 office someday,

00:42:40.840 it would be

00:42:42.220 a crime.

00:42:44.140 Because this

00:42:45.380 is the guy

00:42:46.280 you need to

00:42:46.680 be in charge.

00:42:48.060 I would

00:42:48.680 vote for

00:42:49.040 this guy.

00:42:49.960 He's 18

00:42:50.480 years old,

00:42:51.060 and he

00:42:51.380 already has

00:42:51.780 my vote

00:42:52.160 for president,

00:42:53.220 frankly.

00:42:55.740 All right.

00:42:57.100 So let's

00:42:57.840 see what else

00:42:58.240 is coming

00:42:58.540 down the

00:42:58.960 road.

00:43:00.020 Let's talk

00:43:00.480 about Biden

00:43:01.040 and his

00:43:01.800 vice

00:43:03.160 presidential

00:43:03.620 pick.

00:43:05.340 Some smart

00:43:06.120 people are

00:43:06.520 saying it's

00:43:06.940 narrowed down

00:43:07.480 to Elizabeth

00:43:08.020 Warren or

00:43:08.620 Kamala Harris.

00:43:09.520 So I did a

00:43:10.260 little Twitter

00:43:10.660 poll to find

00:43:11.820 out how you

00:43:12.540 thought about

00:43:13.040 it.

00:43:14.600 And Kamala

00:43:17.220 Harris was

00:43:18.520 the winner of

00:43:19.140 the unscientific

00:43:20.140 Twitter poll

00:43:20.840 with almost

00:43:22.700 70% of the

00:43:23.660 vote.

00:43:24.880 So it's

00:43:25.440 sort of a

00:43:25.960 two to one,

00:43:26.680 let's say.

00:43:27.100 So two to

00:43:27.520 one of

00:43:28.760 probably

00:43:29.620 mostly

00:43:30.120 pro-Trump

00:43:30.860 people who

00:43:31.380 voted in

00:43:31.920 my unscientific

00:43:32.840 Twitter poll,

00:43:34.280 two to one

00:43:34.720 thought Kamala

00:43:35.300 Harris was

00:43:35.800 the stronger

00:43:36.540 candidate.

00:43:38.200 Stronger meaning

00:43:38.840 the one that

00:43:39.240 would help

00:43:39.520 Biden the

00:43:39.960 most.

00:43:40.560 And I

00:43:40.900 agree with

00:43:41.260 that

00:43:41.440 completely.

00:43:42.920 Some people

00:43:43.760 complained and

00:43:44.500 said no,

00:43:45.320 no way,

00:43:46.120 because Kamala

00:43:47.220 Harris was a

00:43:48.100 prosecutor,

00:43:49.100 and she is

00:43:49.740 more associated

00:43:50.580 with putting

00:43:51.200 black people

00:43:51.780 in jail than

00:43:53.180 she is

00:43:53.560 associated with

00:43:54.420 defunding the

00:43:55.180 police,

00:43:55.720 which is the

00:43:56.520 popular thing

00:43:57.180 for Democrats.

00:43:57.820 But I

00:43:59.920 would argue

00:44:00.460 this,

00:44:02.060 that if

00:44:02.660 you're

00:44:02.840 Democrats and

00:44:03.700 you're worried

00:44:04.240 about scaring

00:44:05.300 Republicans with

00:44:06.420 too much of

00:44:07.080 the defund

00:44:07.620 the police

00:44:08.020 stuff,

00:44:08.780 and I

00:44:08.980 think Biden's

00:44:09.600 not going

00:44:10.020 to go

00:44:10.280 fully,

00:44:11.380 he might

00:44:11.980 flirt with

00:44:12.620 defunding the

00:44:13.240 police,

00:44:13.580 but he's

00:44:13.880 not going

00:44:14.200 to be

00:44:14.420 and eliminate

00:44:15.080 the police

00:44:15.560 guy,

00:44:16.000 I don't

00:44:16.560 think.

00:44:18.480 I think

00:44:19.220 Harris is

00:44:20.120 actually perfect

00:44:20.960 for that,

00:44:21.960 because she

00:44:22.580 straddles both

00:44:24.600 worlds like

00:44:25.620 nobody else you

00:44:26.400 can think of.

00:44:27.000 You want

00:44:28.320 somebody who's

00:44:28.920 got one foot

00:44:29.740 in the world

00:44:31.280 of the police,

00:44:34.100 let's say law

00:44:34.660 enforcement world,

00:44:35.880 and she does,

00:44:36.940 but you also

00:44:37.760 want the other 0.87

00:44:38.520 foot to be

00:44:39.980 with the

00:44:40.460 protesters,

00:44:41.340 with Black

00:44:41.780 Lives Matter,

00:44:42.960 clearly progressive,

00:44:44.620 somebody who can

00:44:45.340 see both sides.

00:44:47.320 How many people

00:44:48.120 have that?

00:44:49.440 She actually is

00:44:50.300 exactly the right

00:44:51.220 person.

00:44:52.020 She's not even

00:44:52.700 approximately the

00:44:53.640 right person.

00:44:54.620 She's exactly the

00:44:55.660 right person.

00:44:56.140 because you

00:44:57.280 want somebody

00:44:57.780 who can see

00:44:58.160 both sides.

00:44:59.380 You're not

00:44:59.900 going to get

00:45:00.200 to the end

00:45:00.720 without a few

00:45:01.540 leaders who

00:45:02.080 can do that.

00:45:03.160 Now,

00:45:03.340 I don't think

00:45:04.040 she's necessarily

00:45:06.040 the unifying

00:45:07.180 leader that we

00:45:08.060 need,

00:45:08.700 but she has

00:45:09.920 what you need

00:45:10.380 for vice

00:45:10.780 president.

00:45:11.220 I think it's

00:45:11.540 a slam dunk.

00:45:12.800 All right,

00:45:13.060 so we could

00:45:16.160 be surprised

00:45:16.780 by some

00:45:17.420 candidate we

00:45:18.200 didn't know

00:45:18.740 of,

00:45:19.400 who just was

00:45:20.020 even more

00:45:20.500 perfect,

00:45:20.960 but at

00:45:22.660 this point,

00:45:23.240 I'd say

00:45:23.560 at least

00:45:24.240 a 50%

00:45:25.020 chance

00:45:25.640 it's

00:45:26.460 Kamala

00:45:26.980 Harris,

00:45:27.940 but I

00:45:28.460 would say

00:45:28.780 there's

00:45:29.140 a 100%

00:45:29.960 chance

00:45:30.500 it's not

00:45:31.780 Elizabeth Warren,

00:45:33.660 so there

00:45:34.500 could be

00:45:34.780 some surprises.

00:45:36.340 I checked

00:45:36.800 my predicted

00:45:37.640 bets,

00:45:41.940 so where I

00:45:42.700 go to the

00:45:43.260 betting market

00:45:43.920 and actually

00:45:44.340 bet on stuff.

00:45:45.460 Now,

00:45:45.760 all of my

00:45:46.280 bets are

00:45:46.860 many months

00:45:48.020 old,

00:45:48.560 so there's

00:45:48.960 nothing that I

00:45:49.620 bet recently.

00:45:51.000 Everything is

00:45:52.280 2019,

00:45:53.960 maybe early

00:45:54.620 2020,

00:45:55.340 I don't

00:45:55.620 remember some

00:45:56.140 of them,

00:45:56.740 so there's

00:45:57.140 nothing new,

00:45:58.340 and I've got

00:45:58.920 six bets.

00:46:00.680 All six of

00:46:01.480 them are

00:46:01.780 right,

00:46:03.580 except that

00:46:04.320 only four of

00:46:05.620 them I think

00:46:06.100 will pay.

00:46:07.660 Here's why I

00:46:08.420 say they're

00:46:08.820 all correct

00:46:09.540 bets,

00:46:10.240 but only

00:46:10.720 three or

00:46:11.940 four of

00:46:12.220 them are

00:46:12.440 going to

00:46:12.660 pay.

00:46:13.620 One of my

00:46:14.300 bets was

00:46:14.760 that Kamala

00:46:15.240 Harris would

00:46:16.100 get the

00:46:17.260 top ticket

00:46:18.140 nomination.

00:46:19.620 That will

00:46:20.820 not happen

00:46:21.400 because Biden

00:46:22.100 already got

00:46:22.660 it,

00:46:23.540 but we

00:46:24.580 also agree

00:46:25.300 that if

00:46:25.820 she's the 0.99

00:46:26.220 vice

00:46:26.400 presidential

00:46:26.860 pick,

00:46:27.580 it will

00:46:28.100 be like

00:46:28.740 she's the 0.99

00:46:29.380 presidential

00:46:29.920 candidate.

00:46:30.960 So I'm

00:46:31.400 going to

00:46:31.600 lose my

00:46:32.120 bet on

00:46:32.540 predict it

00:46:33.140 because they're

00:46:33.840 going to be

00:46:34.160 technical about

00:46:35.040 that.

00:46:35.780 They tell you

00:46:36.700 in advance

00:46:37.120 what the

00:46:37.480 standard is

00:46:38.080 and it

00:46:38.320 wouldn't

00:46:38.540 meet that

00:46:38.900 standard.

00:46:40.000 So I'm

00:46:40.380 going to

00:46:40.560 lose the

00:46:41.000 bet at

00:46:43.140 the same

00:46:43.540 time that

00:46:45.240 I won

00:46:46.620 the bet.

00:46:47.060 So I

00:46:49.600 think it

00:46:49.880 was either

00:46:50.200 6 out of

00:46:50.640 6,

00:46:50.940 might have

00:46:51.160 been 5

00:46:51.580 out of

00:46:51.740 6.

00:46:51.980 So one

00:46:52.840 of the

00:46:53.060 bets I

00:46:53.420 won is

00:46:55.340 that the

00:46:55.660 nominee would

00:46:56.240 be over

00:46:56.580 70.

00:46:58.180 So that's

00:46:58.920 Biden.

00:47:01.040 One of the

00:47:01.560 ones I

00:47:01.960 won is

00:47:02.760 that I

00:47:04.180 lost the

00:47:05.320 bet that

00:47:06.280 the Democrats

00:47:07.100 would nominate

00:47:08.900 a woman.

00:47:10.580 But again,

00:47:11.940 if Kamala

00:47:12.520 Harris is

00:47:13.000 vice

00:47:13.260 president and

00:47:13.960 people see

00:47:14.520 her as the

00:47:15.100 top of

00:47:15.380 the

00:47:15.480 ticket,

00:47:16.280 I kind

00:47:17.340 of won

00:47:17.640 the bet

00:47:18.100 even though

00:47:19.360 I'll have

00:47:19.820 to pay

00:47:20.460 on the

00:47:20.740 bet and

00:47:21.120 lose it.

00:47:25.400 So anyway,

00:47:26.300 I think

00:47:26.560 Harris is

00:47:27.540 going to

00:47:28.240 get it.

00:47:30.380 That's

00:47:30.820 about

00:47:31.280 all I

00:47:35.160 got for

00:47:35.500 now.

00:47:36.380 Just

00:47:36.620 checking to

00:47:37.100 make sure.

00:47:39.600 So here's

00:47:40.340 something I

00:47:40.820 tweeted

00:47:41.160 yesterday.

00:47:42.000 I had this

00:47:42.360 pinned for

00:47:42.760 a while.

00:47:43.740 And even

00:47:44.060 Ann Coulter

00:47:44.900 liked it.

00:47:48.280 So I

00:47:49.000 got over

00:47:49.460 11,000

00:47:50.400 retweets.

00:47:51.820 Now,

00:47:52.160 given the

00:47:52.920 size of

00:47:53.400 my Twitter

00:47:53.820 following,

00:47:54.980 a really

00:47:55.680 good viral

00:47:56.580 tweet for

00:47:57.220 me would

00:47:57.700 be about

00:47:58.100 1,500

00:47:58.800 retweets.

00:48:00.900 So this

00:48:01.480 is

00:48:01.740 approaching

00:48:04.080 10 times

00:48:05.340 more

00:48:06.540 than a

00:48:09.920 good

00:48:10.160 normal

00:48:10.620 viral

00:48:11.000 tweet.

00:48:12.100 So that

00:48:12.820 means that

00:48:13.260 this is

00:48:13.660 hitting

00:48:14.120 a

00:48:14.620 chord

00:48:14.860 with

00:48:15.120 people

00:48:15.440 way,

00:48:16.820 way beyond

00:48:17.440 normal

00:48:18.240 tweets.

00:48:19.360 And here's

00:48:19.960 what it is.

00:48:20.440 Most of

00:48:20.740 you saw it.

00:48:21.580 I said,

00:48:22.000 I can't

00:48:22.280 respect the

00:48:22.780 protest.

00:48:23.560 I always

00:48:24.280 respect the

00:48:24.880 people,

00:48:25.320 of course,

00:48:25.700 but you can

00:48:26.820 disrespect

00:48:27.400 activities.

00:48:29.100 I can't

00:48:29.700 respect a

00:48:30.180 protest that

00:48:30.860 has these

00:48:31.260 qualities.

00:48:31.680 Number one,

00:48:32.760 no specific

00:48:33.500 suggestions on

00:48:34.540 what to

00:48:34.840 change.

00:48:36.360 Defunding the

00:48:37.060 police isn't

00:48:37.660 too specific.

00:48:39.160 Data is not

00:48:40.060 allowed into the

00:48:40.780 debate,

00:48:41.220 because it's

00:48:41.920 not.

00:48:43.080 You're not

00:48:43.500 really allowed

00:48:44.160 to look at

00:48:44.640 the data,

00:48:45.860 right?

00:48:47.380 Dissenting

00:48:47.880 opinions,

00:48:48.420 no matter

00:48:48.800 how respectful

00:48:49.560 and well-meaning,

00:48:50.440 are not

00:48:50.780 allowed.

00:48:51.840 That's

00:48:52.120 true.

00:48:52.940 You could

00:48:53.420 not have

00:48:54.080 a dissenting

00:48:54.920 opinion,

00:48:56.060 even if you're

00:48:56.740 respectful,

00:48:57.540 and even if

00:48:57.960 your data was

00:48:58.520 on your side,

00:48:59.620 and even if

00:49:00.160 you're well-meaning.

00:49:01.480 Not allowed.

00:49:03.160 And number

00:49:04.300 four,

00:49:04.860 the protest

00:49:05.420 has a low

00:49:06.180 regard for

00:49:06.800 public safety,

00:49:07.680 and I think

00:49:08.260 that's true.

00:49:11.860 So,

00:49:12.740 I don't

00:49:16.600 know.

00:49:16.740 I don't

00:49:17.000 know how

00:49:17.280 to participate

00:49:17.940 in a

00:49:18.420 debate in

00:49:19.740 which you

00:49:21.380 can't talk

00:49:21.960 about the

00:49:22.340 data,

00:49:22.800 you can't

00:49:23.160 have a

00:49:23.420 different

00:49:23.660 opinion,

00:49:24.620 there's no

00:49:25.440 real suggestions,

00:49:26.920 and they're

00:49:27.520 not even

00:49:27.940 concerned with

00:49:28.800 public

00:49:29.160 well-being.

00:49:30.460 Like,

00:49:31.060 I don't

00:49:31.560 know.

00:49:31.860 What's

00:49:32.100 that?

00:49:32.880 Part of

00:49:33.400 the reason

00:49:33.720 that I

00:49:34.020 think the

00:49:34.320 protests are

00:49:34.920 so big,

00:49:35.640 and that,

00:49:36.260 again,

00:49:36.800 nobody seems

00:49:37.460 to want to

00:49:37.860 say this

00:49:38.220 out loud,

00:49:38.780 but I

00:49:39.020 will.

00:49:39.940 It's

00:49:40.340 because the

00:49:40.920 weather is

00:49:41.440 good,

00:49:42.280 and there

00:49:43.000 are no

00:49:43.320 alternatives for

00:49:45.000 something to

00:49:45.600 do.

00:49:46.480 Imagine if

00:49:47.440 this were

00:49:47.880 just a

00:49:48.540 regular summer,

00:49:49.840 and people

00:49:50.720 had their

00:49:51.140 summer vacations

00:49:52.100 planned,

00:49:53.040 and kids

00:49:53.860 were going

00:49:54.300 to camps,

00:49:55.360 and you're

00:49:56.360 just busy,

00:49:57.000 busy running

00:49:57.560 around,

00:49:58.160 and you

00:49:58.460 could go to

00:49:58.920 clubs and

00:49:59.560 bars,

00:50:00.060 you could go

00:50:00.480 out to

00:50:00.820 restaurants,

00:50:01.460 you're at

00:50:01.800 the beach,

00:50:02.640 and you've

00:50:03.160 got all

00:50:03.780 these other

00:50:04.500 things you

00:50:05.100 can do.

00:50:05.640 How big

00:50:07.380 would the

00:50:07.720 protests be?

00:50:09.620 Now,

00:50:09.980 you'd like to

00:50:10.560 believe they'd

00:50:11.020 be the same

00:50:11.500 size,

00:50:12.040 right?

00:50:12.840 Because what's

00:50:13.420 more important,

00:50:14.180 going to the

00:50:14.720 beach,

00:50:15.600 or protesting

00:50:16.940 to try to

00:50:18.120 improve life

00:50:18.900 and reduce

00:50:20.300 racism?

00:50:21.780 So your

00:50:22.800 logical mind

00:50:24.300 says,

00:50:24.620 well,

00:50:24.800 they'd be the

00:50:25.180 same size,

00:50:25.920 because it's

00:50:26.640 so important

00:50:27.200 compared to

00:50:27.760 going to the

00:50:28.260 beach.

00:50:29.280 Have you met

00:50:30.080 people?

00:50:32.600 If you've

00:50:33.460 got that

00:50:33.820 many human

00:50:34.400 beings,

00:50:35.640 there are a

00:50:36.140 lot of those

00:50:36.740 people who

00:50:37.280 would have

00:50:37.640 gone to

00:50:37.980 the beach,

00:50:39.180 they would

00:50:39.680 have gone

00:50:39.920 to the

00:50:40.240 beach.

00:50:40.540 It doesn't

00:50:40.860 mean that

00:50:41.260 the issue

00:50:43.360 is any

00:50:43.980 less,

00:50:44.920 certainly not

00:50:45.620 saying that.

00:50:46.520 I'm just

00:50:46.880 saying if

00:50:47.220 you're looking

00:50:47.540 at the

00:50:47.840 size of

00:50:48.280 the crowd,

00:50:48.820 it's

00:50:49.020 completely

00:50:49.620 misleading,

00:50:50.800 because they

00:50:51.500 just didn't

00:50:52.200 have anything

00:50:52.760 else to do

00:50:53.620 that was

00:50:54.480 outdoors,

00:50:55.700 that you

00:50:56.080 could leave

00:50:56.420 the house.

00:50:57.440 So I

00:50:58.320 think we're

00:50:58.640 being fooled

00:50:59.260 not only

00:50:59.860 by selective

00:51:00.700 images on

00:51:01.500 our TV,

00:51:02.500 we're being

00:51:03.060 fooled because

00:51:03.800 we ignore the

00:51:04.980 alternatives.

00:51:06.040 The alternative

00:51:06.640 was to do

00:51:07.400 something else

00:51:07.960 and it

00:51:08.220 didn't exist.

00:51:11.500 All right.

00:51:13.660 It's the

00:51:14.260 perfect time

00:51:14.760 for a protest.

00:51:15.720 Weather's good

00:51:16.380 and there's

00:51:16.820 nothing else

00:51:17.300 to do.

00:51:19.440 I don't even

00:51:20.240 think the

00:51:20.600 protests would

00:51:21.220 be this big

00:51:21.800 if they were

00:51:22.200 in August,

00:51:23.040 because it

00:51:23.380 would be

00:51:23.500 too hot.

00:51:25.520 That alone

00:51:26.360 would be a

00:51:27.080 factor.

00:51:27.400 you just

00:51:29.560 described

00:51:30.220 Florida.

00:51:35.140 Do you

00:51:35.740 think it'll

00:51:36.140 matter that

00:51:36.880 people are

00:51:37.300 seeing that

00:51:37.900 Democratic

00:51:39.040 mayors all

00:51:40.360 failed?

00:51:41.880 Do you think

00:51:42.540 that that's

00:51:42.920 going to

00:51:43.120 matter to

00:51:43.500 anything?

00:51:44.120 I have a

00:51:44.580 feeling it

00:51:45.000 won't.

00:51:46.460 I really

00:51:46.900 do.

00:51:48.080 I'd love to

00:51:48.820 see some

00:51:49.280 kind of a

00:51:49.980 city,

00:51:51.960 let's say

00:51:52.940 consultants like

00:51:54.900 Bain

00:51:55.260 consultants or

00:51:56.320 people like

00:51:56.740 that.

00:51:57.200 I'd love to

00:51:57.760 see them

00:51:58.100 put together

00:51:58.700 a city

00:52:00.040 rescue

00:52:00.720 service.

00:52:03.380 It would

00:52:03.880 be a

00:52:05.500 contracted

00:52:06.100 service and

00:52:07.400 you would

00:52:07.620 say to

00:52:07.920 some big

00:52:08.360 consulting

00:52:08.840 company,

00:52:09.480 McKenzie,

00:52:10.100 somebody who's

00:52:11.080 got a lot

00:52:11.520 of smart

00:52:12.500 people,

00:52:13.720 and you'd

00:52:14.040 say,

00:52:14.600 we're going

00:52:15.200 to have an

00:52:15.480 election in

00:52:16.060 our city,

00:52:17.220 and if we

00:52:18.000 choose this

00:52:19.220 by referendum,

00:52:20.720 then you're

00:52:21.380 going to come

00:52:21.720 in for two

00:52:22.300 years,

00:52:23.240 and at two

00:52:23.780 years,

00:52:24.200 you're out of

00:52:24.680 here,

00:52:25.080 but two

00:52:25.540 years,

00:52:26.220 we'll bring

00:52:26.820 in professional

00:52:27.880 consultants who

00:52:29.760 have a package

00:52:30.660 of, you know,

00:52:31.500 they've figured

00:52:32.000 out how to do

00:52:32.520 things,

00:52:32.980 what works

00:52:33.420 and what

00:52:33.680 doesn't,

00:52:34.380 and they'll

00:52:34.780 come in and

00:52:35.240 they'll just

00:52:35.540 implement these

00:52:36.260 changes,

00:52:37.100 we'll run it

00:52:37.760 for two

00:52:38.100 years,

00:52:38.660 and then the

00:52:39.500 consultants will

00:52:40.220 have to leave

00:52:40.880 no matter how

00:52:41.520 well they do,

00:52:42.180 they don't live

00:52:42.920 here,

00:52:43.700 they're not

00:52:44.100 elected,

00:52:44.600 they've got to

00:52:45.000 leave after

00:52:45.400 two years,

00:52:46.440 and then we'll

00:52:47.280 try to fill

00:52:48.900 positions with

00:52:49.840 regular elected

00:52:50.760 people to keep

00:52:51.620 the momentum

00:52:52.140 going.

00:52:52.520 Do you

00:52:53.500 think anybody

00:52:53.960 would use

00:52:54.340 that?

00:52:55.080 Would anybody

00:52:55.660 use a city

00:52:57.120 rescue service?

00:53:00.120 It would be

00:53:00.560 like a

00:53:01.620 government in

00:53:02.360 a box,

00:53:03.480 you know,

00:53:04.000 a canned

00:53:04.660 government that

00:53:05.360 just comes in

00:53:05.920 for two years

00:53:06.540 and then they

00:53:06.980 have to leave.

00:53:08.200 You know,

00:53:08.400 no two ways

00:53:09.380 about it.

00:53:10.160 Now,

00:53:10.340 I wouldn't

00:53:10.620 worry about,

00:53:11.360 you know,

00:53:12.600 consultants taking

00:53:13.680 over a city

00:53:14.240 and staying.

00:53:15.660 I don't feel

00:53:16.380 like that's a

00:53:16.920 big risk.

00:53:17.960 I feel like

00:53:18.640 they'd want to

00:53:19.100 make their

00:53:19.440 money and move

00:53:19.960 to another

00:53:20.340 city.

00:53:22.520 Yeah,

00:53:23.320 and you

00:53:23.720 know,

00:53:23.840 maybe you

00:53:24.180 appoint a

00:53:24.700 city manager

00:53:25.300 to implement

00:53:25.960 things,

00:53:26.860 but that

00:53:27.480 manager would

00:53:28.040 be more

00:53:28.360 of an

00:53:28.580 implementer.

00:53:31.820 Anyway,

00:53:32.880 pork is a

00:53:33.360 problem.

00:53:34.580 That is

00:53:35.160 correct.

00:53:35.960 And I

00:53:36.260 think that

00:53:36.660 the professional

00:53:37.460 consultants would

00:53:38.740 be less

00:53:39.280 susceptible to

00:53:40.480 the pork

00:53:40.900 because they

00:53:41.760 would be

00:53:42.040 highly paid

00:53:42.760 on day

00:53:44.320 one.

00:53:44.860 They wouldn't

00:53:45.140 have to take

00:53:45.620 bribes because

00:53:46.260 they have good

00:53:46.640 jobs.

00:53:48.160 All right,

00:53:48.780 that's all

00:53:50.720 for now,

00:53:51.160 and I

00:53:51.940 will talk

00:53:52.300 to you

00:53:52.680 later.

00:53:54.040 Have a

00:53:54.360 great day.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 08, 2020

Episode 1021 Scott Adams： Lying Statistics, Trump Poll Numbers Plummet, Democrat Strategy Debacle, Harris Versus Warren, BLM

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