Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1046 Scott Adams： #BLM, Strategy, HCQ, Kamala, Fixing Schools and More

00:00:00.000 I'll put on my microphone and I'll get out my notes and I will be ready to present to you

00:00:22.200 Coffee with Scott Adams and the thoughts of the day, the news, and the beginning of the best day you've had since yesterday.

00:00:30.000 Yeah, today is going to be a, it's going to be a doozy. It really is. And before we get started, you know what you need. You need a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. What the hell?

00:00:50.620 Well, just imagine this is my coffee and that I didn't forget my coffee cup downstairs. You're going to have to use your imagination. Okay. But it's the dopamine hit of the day.

00:01:04.160 It's the best part of the day. It's a simultaneous sip. Works with any beverage. It happens now. Go.

00:01:14.220 That might be the first time I've forgotten to have my coffee cup with me. Well, that's just because there's so many things happening.

00:01:20.960 How many of you had elk as the statue that would be destroyed next in the statue Deadpool? Did anybody guess elk? Because somebody said a statue of an elk on fire. It was obviously a white supremacist elk.

00:01:42.200 So, in a way, it had a coming. As things continue into more and more ridiculous territory, I think we can see that maybe things were not what you thought they were.

00:01:57.060 You know what I mean? All right. I've decided that if you were to write the summary of the year 2020, you could do it with one sentence.

00:02:05.980 Here it goes. The one sentence that summarizes 2020. We measured everything the wrong way.

00:02:17.000 Is it my imagination or are something like 90% of the problems we've had in 2020 all around the same problem that we don't know how to compare things?

00:02:30.040 We don't know how to measure things. We don't have the right data. We don't know how to study things.

00:02:35.980 It feels like a lot of this is self-imposed, meaning that a lot of the things that are making us unhappy are just because we don't know how to do math and compare things and measure things.

00:02:49.200 One of my favorite things to do is watch CNN for what I call contempt face.

00:03:00.120 Now, those of you listening will miss the magic of this next segment, but have you noticed there's a face they make on CNN that you don't see on Fox News?

00:03:09.540 Let me do an impression of somebody on Fox News, both opinion and news people, reading the news.

00:03:17.960 Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Here's the news.

00:03:22.060 All right. Did you see that? Nothing weird going on with my face.

00:03:25.800 Now watch every CNN host or opinion person talking about President Trump with contempt face, and it goes like this.

00:03:36.900 And really, it doesn't even matter the topic, so I'll make up a topic.

00:03:40.400 Let's say President Trump said that racism is bad, right?

00:03:48.560 You figure, well, most people are going to agree with that, even CNN.

00:03:53.600 But no, they can turn anything into a negative with contempt face.

00:03:59.680 Watch me do it now.

00:04:03.900 And the president, he is claiming that racism is bad.

00:04:12.660 And clearly, he doesn't mean it, and you see what I mean, contempt face.

00:04:24.240 Now, you can turn no story at all into a CNN feature just with contempt face.

00:04:32.040 You just have to add the contemptible face like, oh, I'm so confused, and I hate it, and what's going on here?

00:04:41.200 And I see it from another world.

00:04:44.440 I just don't know.

00:04:48.040 I can't even form a sentence.

00:04:53.000 My contempt face has taken over my brain.

00:04:57.540 Well, enough on that.

00:05:01.520 People have questioned me lately because I've said two things that sound contradictory.

00:05:07.300 And they do sound contradictory, so I'm going to clarify.

00:05:11.620 I've said that in the corporate setting, the strategies are bullshit.

00:05:17.740 And they are.

00:05:18.680 In the corporate world, the person at the meeting who says, what's our strategy, is usually just the dumbest person in the meeting.

00:05:27.080 And companies have largely given up on the whole strategy thing because there's just a lot of things you need to do right.

00:05:35.140 That's it.

00:05:35.880 Is it a strategy for Amazon to be in the package shipping business, or I mean, you know, delivering products?

00:05:44.800 Well, it turns out that just describing what you do doesn't really turn it into a strategy.

00:05:51.280 Nor does it account, if you have a strategy in the corporate world, nor does it account for changes and opportunity.

00:05:58.520 So your strategy might be, we're going to make the highest quality product.

00:06:04.520 And that's your strategy.

00:06:05.760 How long does that last?

00:06:07.800 It lasts until somebody else makes a better high quality product, and you can't compete.

00:06:12.380 Then what do you do?

00:06:14.540 You say, well, you know, what do we have going for us?

00:06:17.300 Oh, well, we can make a cheap product, and we can make a lot of them.

00:06:20.980 So people will change their strategy in the corporate world to whatever is the best opportunity at the time.

00:06:26.440 So strategy doesn't make as much sense.

00:06:29.140 But in your personal life, that's where strategy matters.

00:06:34.540 The things that you specifically are doing, you can have a strategy.

00:06:39.740 So strategy would be, for example, go to college.

00:06:42.520 Strategy would be stay in the jail.

00:06:44.900 Strategy would be be nice to people and hope that they return the favor.

00:06:49.760 The strategy might be to have systems instead of goals.

00:06:52.660 Strategy might be to build your talent stack.

00:06:55.040 A strategy might be contacting people to network on a regular basis.

00:07:00.220 So in your personal life, whether you call it a strategy or a system or whatever word you want, it's really good to have.

00:07:09.000 In the corporate world, it just devolves into jargon, and it changes on a whim.

00:07:14.040 But will it ever be a bad idea to improve your talent stack?

00:07:18.680 No, it'll never be a bad idea.

00:07:20.880 Will it ever be a bad idea to increase your network?

00:07:23.720 No, there's nothing that could happen that would make that a bad idea.

00:07:29.900 But in the business world, there's so much happening that can change what your priorities are that a strategy just makes less sense.

00:07:37.860 And in a practical world, in a practical sense, if you put five people in a room, they won't agree what the strategy is anyway.

00:07:47.260 So in the corporate world, they can't agree what the strategy is.

00:07:50.980 But if it's you personally, you just pick one and go.

00:07:54.300 You know, nobody's going to argue with you about your strategy.

00:07:58.000 So it turns out that Joe Biden is getting a very wide lead with the people over 65.

00:08:05.680 And I was looking at some anecdotal stuff.

00:08:09.940 It's hard to tell anything from anecdotal, but they seem to blame the president for the coronavirus.

00:08:16.460 I saw CNN interview one elderly gentleman, a retired banker, who said the only good thing Trump's done for the economy is juice the stock market.

00:08:27.600 And even that's low now.

00:08:29.620 And I thought to myself, I don't think he's looked at the stock market lately because it's looking kind of strong at the moment.

00:08:38.600 So old people do not make decisions based on data. 1.00

00:08:45.100 And nobody else does either.

00:08:46.820 But the old people might be a little extra, you know, not connected, depending on how old they are. 1.00

00:08:55.620 So here's the thing that is not factored into any of the polls at the moment.

00:09:00.180 The only thing that moves old people is fear. 0.99

00:09:04.400 If they're not afraid, then they get to make their decisions based on their complete lack of information, which is normal.

00:09:13.740 If they're afraid, then they will do whatever they can to limit their fear.

00:09:19.540 Now, the thing that senior citizens are most afraid of is losing what they have.

00:09:26.020 You know, they're a little less concerned with getting new stuff, you know, at least the ones who vote, than they are about losing what they have.

00:09:35.560 So that's the fear that senior citizens have, which is I can't go back to work.

00:09:42.080 Whatever I have is going to have to be good enough.

00:09:45.640 I can't give any of that away.

00:09:47.980 So you can scare senior citizens into thinking they will lose their stuff.

00:09:53.000 What would it take to scare senior citizens back to Trump?

00:09:58.640 Just lots of information about the protesters.

00:10:03.500 Just lots of information about what the left actually looks like and what they want to do.

00:10:08.160 It's plenty scary.

00:10:09.360 You don't have to add anything.

00:10:10.540 So we'll see.

00:10:12.800 We'll see if that happens.

00:10:14.560 So remember I made a suggestion that for the sports that don't have live audience, and we'll see a bunch of them while there's a coronavirus,

00:10:24.520 I said they should have some kind of technology where people could hear the people watching at home cheering.

00:10:31.060 It turns out that there's an app, or I think it's a website app, basically, called Hero.live, and Hero is spelled the way you hear, H-E-A-R, with an O on the end, .live.

00:10:52.360 Apparently, they're already doing business for ESPN and something else.

00:10:57.000 So is there any reason that the NBA, for example, couldn't just say, hey, everybody watching this game, if you use this app, you could all be sort of talking to each other by your phone.

00:11:10.720 So you would hear the cheering, but it would come out of your phone or your mobile device, not out of your television.

00:11:16.680 But it would be in real time because you would be connected to the people who are watching the same event at the same time.

00:11:22.840 So that exists.

00:11:24.000 It's called Hero.live, H-E-A-R-O dot live.

00:11:31.860 And I know that because the company contacted me to tell me.

00:11:36.520 I don't have any connection to them.

00:11:40.720 All right.

00:11:42.440 Here's my suggestion for improving the economy and making us robot proof.

00:11:50.540 Are you ready?

00:11:52.060 It goes like this.

00:11:54.000 Here's something you don't know.

00:11:55.620 So I'll give you some information and then complete the story.

00:11:59.520 Many of you know I bought an electronic bike, meaning it has a battery in it and it assists your pedaling.

00:12:08.460 So you still have to pedal.

00:12:10.140 You can't drive it without pedaling.

00:12:12.820 But the bike just makes you feel like you have a superpower.

00:12:16.380 Now, when I try to explain to people what that feels like, because the way things feel really determine how things go, right?

00:12:23.660 It's not our common sense.

00:12:25.200 It's not our data.

00:12:26.380 It's the way things feel.

00:12:27.780 And I got to tell you, the way an e-bike feels compared to a regular bike is day and night.

00:12:35.600 But you can't even compare them.

00:12:39.000 The feeling of being on a regular bicycle.

00:12:41.180 Hold that in your mind.

00:12:42.380 Almost all of you have been on a regular bicycle.

00:12:44.980 It's pretty good, isn't it?

00:12:47.020 Don't you kind of like riding a bike?

00:12:48.820 I mean, if there are no hills and it's just a nice day and you're on a bike, it's a really good feeling.

00:12:55.520 Now, I'm going to give you an analogy to make you understand how much better it feels to be on an e-bike.

00:13:03.380 Because if you don't get how much better it feels, the rest of the idea will not hold together.

00:13:09.440 So I got to transmit to you the feeling.

00:13:12.120 It goes like this.

00:13:13.140 Imagine if everything in the world was exactly the way it is.

00:13:17.940 The only change is that you personally have an 80% reduction in gravity.

00:13:25.200 Just you.

00:13:26.420 Everything else in the world is the same gravity.

00:13:29.220 But for magic reasons, you personally don't have the same amount of gravity.

00:13:34.380 So you can jump 20 feet in the air.

00:13:37.340 And when you come down, you don't even get hurt because you only weigh 20% as much as you would have.

00:13:42.000 And your muscles are all the same.

00:13:43.900 So it's easy.

00:13:44.900 Now imagine a world in which you can run around and interact with the world.

00:13:51.040 Everybody else is on regular gravity.

00:13:53.600 But you're at 20% gravity.

00:13:55.820 You can jump from things.

00:13:57.460 You could jump up on a ledge.

00:13:59.460 If you saw something way above you, you could just jump up like a cat jumps up on a counter.

00:14:06.120 You could run with 20-foot leaps.

00:14:09.440 Imagine what that would feel like if you didn't have gravity just on you in a world where everybody else has gravity.

00:14:19.500 It would feel amazing.

00:14:22.480 That's what an e-bike feels like.

00:14:24.320 I've never had a physical activity this addicting.

00:14:30.580 The feeling you have of being extra strong on your bicycle because the battery is sort of just helping you out there,

00:14:38.860 that feeling is really addictive.

00:14:41.680 And it doesn't feel like a regular bike with a little extra.

00:14:45.640 It's a whole new experience.

00:14:47.460 So just in the same way that, you know, if you're, let's say, you're a distance runner and you really like it and it feels good and you get all that,

00:14:57.720 and then I told you you could run 50% faster tomorrow, it would be really a kick, wouldn't it?

00:15:05.380 Imagine just being able to run 50% faster.

00:15:08.100 So that's what an e-bike feels like.

00:15:09.900 You can't compare it and it's really addicting.

00:15:12.060 Now, here's the idea.

00:15:14.780 The cost of e-bikes will continue to plunge because the big cost is in the battery and the battery costs are dropping fast.

00:15:22.900 Actually, I don't even know if the big cost is the battery, but the cost will drop as the popularity increases.

00:15:28.940 If you try to buy an e-bike, it's already hard to find.

00:15:33.620 Most bike shops have them, but most of them are sold out.

00:15:37.960 And I told some of you this story about when I test drove it at the bike place.

00:15:43.860 The guy said, all right, here's your, you know, just take it out in the parking lot.

00:15:47.520 It was a really big parking lot.

00:15:49.480 You know, just drive around and see what you think.

00:15:52.180 I got an e-bike and I took it 50 feet and then I turned around and drove back 50 feet.

00:16:01.240 I just sort of drove to the end straight ahead, drove back, and he said, what do you think?

00:16:07.160 And I said to him, the bicycle salesman, has anybody ever ridden an e-bike and then not bought it?

00:16:15.120 And he laughed.

00:16:16.420 He said, there's something called the e-bike smile that after somebody does a test run,

00:16:21.440 they come back and they can't get the smile off their face because they're experiencing almost a drug rush.

00:16:29.060 It's so cool.

00:16:29.800 And he said, yeah, they basically, if you can afford it and you do a test ride, you leave with the bike.

00:16:38.060 That's it.

00:16:38.820 He said, basically, you just leave with the bike.

00:16:40.820 I left with the bike.

00:16:42.640 50 feet sold me on that freaking thing. 0.81

00:16:46.400 So here's the thing.

00:16:47.680 Still way too expensive for normal use, but prices will come down fast.

00:16:52.480 Here's what we should do.

00:16:53.900 We should build a national bike path that gets to all the good stuff in America.

00:17:00.860 Now, of course, seasons matter, so you couldn't use it all year everywhere.

00:17:04.620 But imagine, if you will, a major effort to build really good bike paths that are a combination of,

00:17:11.480 there might be, you need a bridge, a tunnel, you need to connect some things.

00:17:15.120 There are already a lot of bike paths, but you want to get them off the road

00:17:18.300 because the road's just a terrible place for a bike.

00:17:21.260 It's just no fun.

00:17:22.660 So even as good as the bike is, if I'm in heavy traffic, even in a bike lane, it's not much fun.

00:17:29.580 You need sort of your own, you know, bike situation.

00:17:33.740 Now, why is this such a good idea?

00:17:36.240 Because it's the type of job that you could learn to do,

00:17:40.940 which is building a bike path and all the things associated with that,

00:17:45.400 that you would suck up a lot of labor. 0.92

00:17:47.240 Or it would be universal because there's no place you wouldn't want to do it.

00:17:51.340 The government could say, yeah, we'll pay for it.

00:17:54.140 We'll train you, get people working.

00:17:56.860 And then here's the killer part.

00:17:59.680 How are you going to build a country that's safe from the age of robots

00:18:03.460 when everybody loses their jobs?

00:18:05.560 And the answer is, I think we have to become a tourist destination country, the best one.

00:18:13.660 Well, the United States, with a bike path across the entire country,

00:18:19.300 would first of all make it possible for anybody to have a vacation

00:18:22.700 because you could just get on your bike, say, all right, or rent a bike.

00:18:26.840 It would probably be as much rental as it would ownership.

00:18:30.360 So you could just rent a bike.

00:18:31.600 Going 100 miles on an e-bike is actually trivial.

00:18:37.440 You can go 100 miles on an e-bike and you just enjoy the ride.

00:18:41.220 You wouldn't even necessarily be tired at the other end, depending on the hills.

00:18:45.580 You do have to pedal a little bit on the hills, but it's easy.

00:18:47.920 So these are the types of jobs that if you built a network of bike paths,

00:18:55.140 you would need lots of support all along the network.

00:18:58.620 You would need lots of bike repair places,

00:19:01.880 kind of a job that people can get into young.

00:19:04.580 You would need lots of food and water and other resources for bikes all the way.

00:19:10.720 And you would build basically a destination that anybody from another country

00:19:16.940 could come over to any part of the country

00:19:19.080 and then use their e-bikes to get to a huge circle of places

00:19:24.380 without transportation problems.

00:19:28.020 Hey, people say it's a good idea.

00:19:30.640 That's the first time I've seen so many people like my wild ideas.

00:19:34.520 All right, enough on that.

00:19:37.300 So think about that for a little bit.

00:19:39.100 So here's a little update for you.

00:19:44.140 I've told you sometimes I plan things years in advance.

00:19:48.840 So sometimes I'll set up a situation that can't pay off for five or ten years.

00:19:54.220 Very typical in my life, I've done that.

00:19:56.940 And one of the times I did that was with this book,

00:20:00.000 which many of you know,

00:20:02.360 How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big.

00:20:04.400 When I wrote this book, which was full of useful framing, shall we say,

00:20:11.840 about how to have systems and set of goals and how to stack your talents

00:20:15.720 and basically how to organize your life,

00:20:18.540 a life strategy, if you will.

00:20:21.200 A whole bunch of things that if you said,

00:20:23.860 all right, I'll take these parts and build myself a system,

00:20:27.500 that you would come out ahead.

00:20:28.640 And the thing that I planned in advance on this one

00:20:31.380 is that there would be something like a five-year lag

00:20:34.900 between the time that the first people read it,

00:20:38.620 because usually a lot of people read it when it's new,

00:20:41.580 but not a lot of people read a book after it's been out for a while.

00:20:45.500 All right, so you get most of your readers up front.

00:20:47.480 And I knew that when people read this

00:20:50.260 that I would get not a number one bestseller

00:20:53.920 because I'm a cartoonist giving people a book that's outside my realm.

00:21:01.580 And generally that's a hard sell.

00:21:04.260 And so when I wrote this, I said to myself,

00:21:06.540 all right, it's 2013 when this is going to come out.

00:21:09.600 And somewhere around five to seven years from now,

00:21:12.680 I mean, I didn't know the exact time,

00:21:14.940 the people who read the book first

00:21:18.020 and then employed the suggestions

00:21:20.600 are going to start coming forward.

00:21:23.760 In other words, people are going to say,

00:21:25.600 I use this book and look what happened to my life.

00:21:29.720 I got this promotion.

00:21:31.520 I lost 80 pounds.

00:21:33.120 I did this.

00:21:33.960 And now all those things are coming through.

00:21:36.100 So I just got, this is a little inside baseball kind of a talk.

00:21:40.280 If you're an author, you usually get paid up front for a book.

00:21:43.440 It's called the advance.

00:21:45.780 And then let's say they give you a dollar per book

00:21:48.080 or whatever you've agreed in your deal for each book that's sold.

00:21:51.720 You don't get any more money than that initial check

00:21:55.840 unless you sell so many books at a dollar a book,

00:21:59.180 just for my math example,

00:22:01.440 that all of that would have added up to the first amount you got.

00:22:05.920 Once you've earned that by selling a lot of books,

00:22:08.840 then you can get additional checks.

00:22:13.260 I'm a notable enough author, I'll use that word,

00:22:17.400 that I always get an advance.

00:22:20.020 Now, not every author is going to get an advance.

00:22:22.600 Sometimes they'll get a little one that's just a token.

00:22:25.000 If you're a brand new author, don't expect a big advance.

00:22:28.480 But if you're well-known

00:22:30.100 and you've published a lot of books that did well,

00:22:33.220 you get an advance.

00:22:34.080 What is unusual, in my case,

00:22:37.300 is to sell more books than the advance covered.

00:22:42.000 And I just got a big old royalty check for this thing.

00:22:46.860 2013, and it just blew through its advance.

00:22:50.860 It actually doesn't stop selling

00:22:54.680 because the people who read it early

00:22:57.600 are now reporting in and recommending it.

00:23:00.480 And almost every day you see somebody in my feed

00:23:02.820 recommending it with a story of how I helped them.

00:23:07.520 So, if you haven't read this,

00:23:09.840 and I'll say this again,

00:23:11.400 every author writes a book

00:23:13.340 because they want you to buy it,

00:23:15.180 and it's part of their job,

00:23:16.660 so they would like to get money.

00:23:18.600 So, we're all adults, right?

00:23:21.560 Authors write books to make money.

00:23:23.320 We know that, right?

00:23:24.280 We don't have to argue about that.

00:23:26.080 But I don't do things for one reason anymore.

00:23:28.460 You know, my life is now rich enough

00:23:33.600 in, let's say, all the ways

00:23:35.280 that I just don't do things for one reason.

00:23:38.800 So, I wrote this to really,

00:23:40.740 I meant it for my stepson, honestly,

00:23:43.720 who tragically died of an overdose

00:23:46.060 before he finished it.

00:23:47.640 He had started the book, actually,

00:23:49.700 but he hadn't finished it.

00:23:51.160 And it was really for people

00:23:52.640 who just didn't have a,

00:23:54.020 let's say, a father figure,

00:23:55.460 a role model.

00:23:56.180 Well, they just didn't have

00:23:58.140 anything in their life

00:23:59.380 that would tell them

00:24:00.600 how to organize a successful life

00:24:02.800 strategically.

00:24:04.280 So, I thought, well,

00:24:05.460 this will be like a virtual dad,

00:24:08.140 you know, like the,

00:24:09.100 or it could be a virtual mom 0.96

00:24:10.280 to make it less sexist.

00:24:11.800 Somebody who just gives somebody

00:24:13.160 that guidance

00:24:15.380 that is not common sense.

00:24:17.100 So, I hate advertising stuff.

00:24:21.120 It's just the creepiest thing.

00:24:23.080 But if I didn't know

00:24:24.180 that this changes lives,

00:24:25.620 I wouldn't do it.

00:24:27.080 I mean, it really changes lives.

00:24:28.940 And far more than really

00:24:31.200 even I hoped it would.

00:24:34.460 So, that's the good news.

00:24:38.060 So, here's a good,

00:24:39.640 here's something interesting.

00:24:40.940 I think there are

00:24:41.900 three different studies

00:24:43.720 that came out yesterday

00:24:44.820 and today,

00:24:46.100 or the last few days.

00:24:47.860 I think there are

00:24:48.800 three different ones

00:24:49.520 showing hydroxychloroquine works.

00:24:52.120 Have you seen them?

00:24:54.400 Yeah.

00:24:55.100 Somebody's mentioning

00:24:55.980 atomic habits.

00:24:57.480 There are a lot of books

00:24:58.260 that have explicitly

00:24:59.540 mentioned my book

00:25:00.980 that went on

00:25:02.380 to become huge bestsellers.

00:25:04.900 So, you'll see

00:25:05.880 a lot of people who,

00:25:07.180 and they say that.

00:25:07.960 They say, you know,

00:25:09.440 I got some portion

00:25:10.440 of my book

00:25:11.240 or my ideas

00:25:12.480 from specifically this book.

00:25:14.920 So, it's actually influenced

00:25:16.380 a lot of bestsellers

00:25:17.660 since then.

00:25:19.160 So, hydroxychloroquine,

00:25:20.480 it turns out it works.

00:25:22.540 Now, I'm still waiting

00:25:24.440 for more evidence.

00:25:27.560 But when the people,

00:25:28.880 when it was tested

00:25:29.760 in a rigorous,

00:25:31.000 the first rigorous study

00:25:32.220 it showed it worked.

00:25:33.680 Like, pretty well.

00:25:36.220 Now, this was tested

00:25:37.360 for people

00:25:37.780 who were already

00:25:38.280 in the hospital.

00:25:40.720 My smartest,

00:25:42.500 smartest thinker,

00:25:45.460 I guess,

00:25:46.480 who I always ask

00:25:47.580 for advice on this

00:25:49.700 said, yeah,

00:25:50.500 it looks like a good study.

00:25:52.360 But the way they did it,

00:25:53.820 there's a methodology

00:25:55.180 imperfection

00:25:56.680 that you have

00:25:58.060 to take seriously.

00:25:59.360 So, I will still say,

00:26:01.860 even though there are

00:26:02.580 three studies

00:26:03.420 that seem to show

00:26:04.280 hydroxychloroquine

00:26:05.440 clearly makes a difference

00:26:07.320 in a good way

00:26:08.360 without actually

00:26:09.780 killing people. 0.87

00:26:10.860 I will still say

00:26:12.020 we're not quite there.

00:26:14.460 Not quite there.

00:26:15.700 If I had to put

00:26:16.560 the odds on it,

00:26:17.620 the odds on it now,

00:26:19.000 I would raise it

00:26:19.580 quite a bit.

00:26:20.780 I'd say at this point,

00:26:21.940 it looks like

00:26:22.640 75% chance

00:26:24.920 it's a positive thing.

00:26:26.720 Maybe not,

00:26:27.700 maybe not a game changer,

00:26:29.420 but probably

00:26:30.400 a 75% chance

00:26:31.920 it's more good

00:26:33.120 than bad.

00:26:35.260 So, that's my current update.

00:26:37.860 So, how good

00:26:38.480 was the President's day 0.94

00:26:39.720 yesterday?

00:26:40.780 Studies were coming out

00:26:41.860 saying hydroxychloroquine

00:26:43.040 works.

00:26:44.660 The news was reporting

00:26:46.220 that he's pro-mask now,

00:26:48.140 so that solved

00:26:49.180 one problem.

00:26:50.620 And the economy

00:26:52.700 was screaming again.

00:26:54.020 The economy,

00:26:56.520 again,

00:26:57.060 beat expectations.

00:26:57.960 All right,

00:26:58.660 let's review

00:26:59.800 which pundits

00:27:02.280 and experts

00:27:02.940 were right

00:27:03.520 and who was wrong.

00:27:05.300 If you took

00:27:06.500 my advice,

00:27:08.260 let's say

00:27:08.660 if the country

00:27:09.220 had taken my advice,

00:27:10.700 we would have

00:27:11.260 closed the travel

00:27:12.780 from China

00:27:13.360 one week sooner

00:27:14.460 than it happened.

00:27:16.300 So, I was

00:27:16.860 maybe one of the

00:27:18.420 first few people

00:27:19.360 in public

00:27:19.900 who said,

00:27:20.820 close up,

00:27:22.000 close travel.

00:27:23.280 If you listened

00:27:24.240 to me,

00:27:24.860 you would have

00:27:25.300 known that masks

00:27:26.120 were, of course,

00:27:26.920 obviously effective

00:27:28.100 and that the

00:27:29.440 government was,

00:27:30.560 of course,

00:27:31.480 obviously lying

00:27:32.400 to you about that

00:27:33.140 from day one.

00:27:34.280 I said that

00:27:35.160 really loudly

00:27:35.940 from the beginning.

00:27:38.340 So, you would have

00:27:39.140 been wearing

00:27:39.520 your masks

00:27:40.180 sooner.

00:27:43.260 I said

00:27:44.220 early on

00:27:45.080 that we don't know

00:27:45.940 if hydroxychloroquine

00:27:46.980 works and we can't

00:27:47.980 trust those studies,

00:27:48.860 but the risk-reward

00:27:50.720 is probably good.

00:27:52.940 meaning that

00:27:54.220 given the low

00:27:55.200 downside

00:27:55.740 and the

00:27:57.360 anecdotal

00:27:58.240 but unproven

00:27:59.120 potential upside,

00:28:00.680 it just made sense

00:28:02.060 to be using it.

00:28:04.000 Now,

00:28:04.720 that is proven

00:28:05.480 correct.

00:28:07.860 All right?

00:28:08.760 So, I see somebody

00:28:10.160 in the comments

00:28:10.540 saying masks

00:28:11.420 are not very effective.

00:28:13.980 That really,

00:28:14.880 that question

00:28:15.540 is settled.

00:28:16.080 So, if

00:28:18.240 everyone now and then

00:28:19.960 somebody will send me

00:28:20.800 something saying,

00:28:21.640 oh, there's some

00:28:22.340 dispute about

00:28:23.180 whether masks work,

00:28:25.420 I don't entertain

00:28:26.540 that anymore.

00:28:28.720 I do not

00:28:29.540 entertain

00:28:30.260 even the argument

00:28:32.680 that masks

00:28:33.540 don't work.

00:28:34.320 It's overwhelmingly

00:28:35.680 obvious

00:28:38.260 and you wouldn't

00:28:39.680 even need data.

00:28:40.760 The data supports it,

00:28:42.400 but it's just

00:28:43.200 overwhelmingly obvious,

00:28:44.520 I'm going to say.

00:28:45.320 All right.

00:28:47.140 So, and

00:28:48.240 I will add

00:28:49.180 one other thing

00:28:49.880 on there.

00:28:50.980 Who told you

00:28:52.060 that the recovery

00:28:53.340 would be

00:28:54.940 surprisingly good?

00:28:57.620 Surprisingly good?

00:29:00.300 Me

00:29:01.020 and President Trump,

00:29:03.800 right?

00:29:04.560 Now,

00:29:05.160 both of us

00:29:05.960 loudly

00:29:06.580 and often

00:29:07.260 said,

00:29:08.260 you're going to

00:29:10.300 be surprised

00:29:11.160 how quickly

00:29:12.020 the economy

00:29:12.660 comes back.

00:29:13.560 And I gave

00:29:14.060 my reasons,

00:29:14.640 which was

00:29:15.180 that nothing

00:29:15.640 was broken

00:29:16.300 and people

00:29:17.480 were already

00:29:17.980 trained.

00:29:18.840 So it would

00:29:19.200 just be a little

00:29:19.660 easier to ramp

00:29:20.420 up than it

00:29:20.900 would be

00:29:21.320 if you had

00:29:21.940 massive destruction

00:29:23.200 of some kind.

00:29:24.860 So,

00:29:25.240 sure enough,

00:29:26.840 my estimate

00:29:29.000 of how the

00:29:29.900 economy would

00:29:31.500 come back

00:29:31.960 would exceed

00:29:32.660 expectations of

00:29:33.700 the experts

00:29:34.240 and it has.

00:29:36.120 And I said

00:29:36.800 that a lot

00:29:37.400 of times.

00:29:37.960 I said it

00:29:38.480 would blow

00:29:39.660 past what

00:29:41.120 the consensus

00:29:41.920 assumption

00:29:43.020 would be.

00:29:43.740 And we're

00:29:43.960 there.

00:29:45.640 Other news

00:29:46.460 from another

00:29:48.220 area.

00:29:49.760 Iran had 0.99

00:29:50.680 a mysterious

00:29:52.120 explosion,

00:29:52.900 it's called,

00:29:53.260 a mysterious

00:29:53.760 explosion

00:29:54.400 at one of

00:29:55.720 the key

00:29:56.140 buildings at

00:29:56.840 a nuclear

00:29:57.340 site in

00:29:58.000 Iran where

00:29:58.540 I guess they

00:29:58.980 make advanced

00:30:00.040 centrifuges.

00:30:01.040 This would

00:30:02.520 not be the

00:30:03.120 first time

00:30:03.800 that an

00:30:04.860 Iranian

00:30:05.280 centrifuge

00:30:06.540 facility

00:30:07.240 had a

00:30:08.680 quote

00:30:09.340 mysterious

00:30:10.400 problem.

00:30:11.880 You remember

00:30:12.520 the other

00:30:12.880 one which

00:30:13.280 was there

00:30:13.900 was a

00:30:14.380 famous

00:30:15.100 cyber attack

00:30:16.520 that made

00:30:17.820 their machines

00:30:18.340 go crazy

00:30:18.940 and ruin

00:30:19.380 all their

00:30:19.720 centrifuges.

00:30:21.100 Well,

00:30:21.420 this time

00:30:21.740 just something

00:30:22.240 exploded.

00:30:24.140 Now,

00:30:24.740 what's one

00:30:25.300 of the things

00:30:25.740 that people

00:30:26.240 warned

00:30:26.860 the United

00:30:29.020 States about

00:30:29.760 when the

00:30:30.140 coronavirus

00:30:30.560 hit?

00:30:32.200 Here's what

00:30:33.100 we were

00:30:34.200 warned.

00:30:34.960 Hey,

00:30:35.240 watch out

00:30:35.640 United

00:30:35.980 States.

00:30:37.600 Given that

00:30:38.460 you're all

00:30:38.840 distracted by

00:30:39.660 this coronavirus

00:30:40.320 stuff,

00:30:41.600 United States,

00:30:43.300 it could be

00:30:43.880 that other

00:30:44.280 countries will

00:30:44.940 start to get

00:30:45.480 adventurous because

00:30:46.440 they think your

00:30:47.220 attention is

00:30:48.240 turned somewhere

00:30:48.980 else.

00:30:50.180 Totally a

00:30:50.940 risk.

00:30:51.940 We should

00:30:52.320 take that

00:30:52.740 seriously.

00:30:54.200 But there's

00:30:55.960 a flip side

00:30:56.580 to the risk,

00:30:57.240 isn't there?

00:30:58.260 The flip side

00:30:59.480 is that

00:31:00.520 we can

00:31:00.960 take risks

00:31:01.840 internationally

00:31:03.360 that we

00:31:04.600 maybe couldn't

00:31:05.400 have taken

00:31:05.820 before because

00:31:07.480 they're also

00:31:08.820 distracted.

00:31:10.540 So I'm not

00:31:11.600 going to say

00:31:12.040 that the

00:31:12.440 United States

00:31:13.200 was behind

00:31:13.900 the mysterious

00:31:15.940 explosion.

00:31:16.960 I'm not going

00:31:17.500 to say that

00:31:17.920 Israel was 0.98

00:31:18.680 behind it.

00:31:19.900 I mean,

00:31:20.160 you can make

00:31:20.840 your own

00:31:21.120 assumptions on

00:31:21.840 that.

00:31:23.000 But here's

00:31:25.540 what I will

00:31:25.980 say to add

00:31:27.100 to the story.

00:31:28.380 If it was

00:31:29.400 either the

00:31:29.880 United States

00:31:30.620 or Israel,

00:31:32.340 the timing

00:31:32.940 was kind

00:31:33.580 of perfect.

00:31:35.020 The timing

00:31:35.560 was perfect

00:31:36.380 because everyone's

00:31:38.820 distracted by

00:31:39.860 coronavirus.

00:31:41.040 So in order

00:31:41.660 for Iran to 0.58

00:31:42.540 get any kind

00:31:44.300 of a win

00:31:45.140 out of having

00:31:45.860 their facility

00:31:46.580 attacked,

00:31:47.720 they would

00:31:48.040 either have

00:31:48.480 to mount

00:31:49.220 a counter-attack,

00:31:50.200 which looks

00:31:51.180 impossible at

00:31:52.100 this point,

00:31:52.600 or they

00:31:53.560 would have

00:31:53.840 to get

00:31:54.100 public

00:31:54.500 opinion

00:31:54.920 on their

00:31:55.340 side,

00:31:56.380 and nobody

00:31:57.620 freaking cares.

00:31:59.440 We just

00:32:00.100 don't care

00:32:00.740 about Iran

00:32:01.300 at the

00:32:01.800 moment.

00:32:02.700 I mean,

00:32:03.140 the world

00:32:03.660 just sort

00:32:04.440 of doesn't

00:32:04.820 care.

00:32:05.220 We just

00:32:05.780 have other

00:32:06.180 things to

00:32:06.600 worry about.

00:32:08.040 So if you

00:32:08.720 look at the

00:32:09.360 situation Iran

00:32:10.420 is in,

00:32:11.580 their budget

00:32:12.260 is completely

00:32:13.760 blown up.

00:32:15.180 I think

00:32:15.500 their taxable

00:32:17.600 income,

00:32:18.520 the income

00:32:19.040 they get by

00:32:19.520 taxes,

00:32:20.280 is just a

00:32:21.040 fraction of

00:32:21.640 what they're

00:32:21.940 spending now.

00:32:22.600 So they're

00:32:23.400 on a fast

00:32:24.480 track to

00:32:25.440 complete

00:32:26.600 destruction.

00:32:27.640 So they've

00:32:28.080 got runaway

00:32:28.700 inflation,

00:32:29.720 their government

00:32:31.000 budget is

00:32:31.720 toast,

00:32:32.820 their oil

00:32:33.940 revenue is

00:32:34.720 nothing,

00:32:35.320 the sanctions

00:32:35.840 are cutting

00:32:36.320 off their

00:32:36.800 other ways

00:32:38.000 to make

00:32:38.360 money,

00:32:39.020 and they've

00:32:41.020 got a big

00:32:41.420 coronavirus

00:32:41.880 problem.

00:32:44.020 And they're

00:32:45.540 still trying

00:32:45.980 to keep

00:32:46.340 their proxies

00:32:47.260 alive,

00:32:48.080 and whatever

00:32:48.840 they're trying

00:32:49.340 to do in

00:32:50.040 Syria is

00:32:50.900 probably not

00:32:51.400 working out.

00:32:51.960 It's

00:32:52.320 getting

00:32:52.500 expensive.

00:32:54.460 So

00:32:54.720 Iran is

00:32:56.880 really on

00:32:57.340 the ropes

00:32:57.840 right now.

00:32:58.840 And if

00:33:00.340 Israel or 0.89

00:33:01.800 the U.S.

00:33:02.260 are getting

00:33:02.740 adventurous in

00:33:04.500 terms of

00:33:05.120 trying to push

00:33:05.820 them over the

00:33:06.360 edge, it is

00:33:07.820 the perfect

00:33:08.240 time.

00:33:09.080 It's the

00:33:09.700 perfect time

00:33:10.220 to do it.

00:33:11.800 I've often

00:33:12.620 said that the

00:33:13.560 most important

00:33:14.900 things a

00:33:15.440 government does

00:33:16.340 are the

00:33:16.680 things you

00:33:17.040 never find

00:33:17.620 out about.

00:33:18.120 so it

00:33:20.800 could be

00:33:21.220 that we're

00:33:21.620 deeply

00:33:21.980 involved in

00:33:22.720 whatever this

00:33:23.460 mysterious stuff

00:33:24.980 is going

00:33:25.360 on, but

00:33:26.640 you're never

00:33:26.960 going to

00:33:27.240 know, or

00:33:28.320 maybe years

00:33:29.080 from now

00:33:29.380 you'll know.

00:33:31.980 Here's an

00:33:32.720 interesting

00:33:33.320 factoid that

00:33:34.180 will blow

00:33:34.780 your mind.

00:33:35.920 Are you ready?

00:33:37.380 One of the

00:33:37.800 reasons that you

00:33:38.580 listen to this

00:33:39.380 periscope, the

00:33:40.380 regulars anyway,

00:33:41.680 is that you like

00:33:42.360 to hear something

00:33:43.060 that you hadn't

00:33:43.600 heard before,

00:33:44.320 or have

00:33:45.320 something framed

00:33:46.040 away that

00:33:46.580 just makes

00:33:46.980 you go,

00:33:48.020 what?

00:33:49.080 And it's

00:33:49.740 especially

00:33:50.240 delicious if

00:33:52.080 it's something

00:33:52.580 that you

00:33:53.000 are positive

00:33:53.900 is true.

00:33:54.900 You've always

00:33:56.040 been positive

00:33:56.800 it's true,

00:33:57.660 and then you

00:33:58.920 find out it

00:33:59.540 isn't.

00:34:00.560 It's kind of

00:34:01.180 fun, isn't

00:34:01.560 it?

00:34:02.240 Admit it, it's

00:34:03.020 kind of fun to

00:34:04.680 find out that

00:34:05.320 something you

00:34:05.760 thought was

00:34:06.140 true your

00:34:06.520 whole life

00:34:07.200 just isn't

00:34:08.780 true.

00:34:09.680 All right, I

00:34:10.300 got one for

00:34:10.800 you.

00:34:12.180 Now, you'll

00:34:12.780 have to fact

00:34:13.740 check me on

00:34:14.300 this, but I'm

00:34:15.040 going to give

00:34:15.380 you a claim

00:34:16.100 that sounded

00:34:17.660 plausible to

00:34:19.100 me, but I'd

00:34:19.780 like you to

00:34:20.140 check it out

00:34:20.600 for me, okay?

00:34:21.860 So here's the

00:34:22.720 claim that I

00:34:23.320 believe every

00:34:23.980 conservative

00:34:24.600 believes about

00:34:25.800 what needs to

00:34:28.440 be fixed in

00:34:29.200 the black

00:34:29.660 community to

00:34:30.540 get us as

00:34:31.100 close to

00:34:31.620 racial parity

00:34:32.400 as possible.

00:34:33.920 Correct me

00:34:35.200 if I'm wrong,

00:34:36.520 conservatives

00:34:37.100 overwhelmingly

00:34:38.200 believe that

00:34:39.700 the family

00:34:40.340 unit staying

00:34:41.500 together, in

00:34:42.380 other words,

00:34:42.780 not being

00:34:43.180 divorced, and

00:34:44.220 having two

00:34:44.740 parents to

00:34:45.940 raise a

00:34:46.340 kid, especially

00:34:47.120 fathers, right?

00:34:48.640 Especially

00:34:49.080 fathers, that

00:34:50.180 that's critical,

00:34:51.660 and that there's

00:34:52.260 a gigantic

00:34:52.840 difference in

00:34:54.260 the black

00:34:54.640 community with

00:34:55.420 70%, I think

00:34:57.580 it's 70% of

00:34:58.880 black babies

00:34:59.780 are born to

00:35:02.480 a single

00:35:03.000 parent.

00:35:04.420 Now, that's

00:35:05.140 what you know,

00:35:05.720 right?

00:35:06.300 You're a

00:35:06.880 conservative, you

00:35:07.740 believe that

00:35:08.460 black babies in

00:35:10.780 2020, 70% of

00:35:12.980 them are being

00:35:13.440 born to a

00:35:13.980 single parent,

00:35:14.700 and you

00:35:15.560 believe that

00:35:16.080 the key to

00:35:16.940 success for

00:35:18.340 any baby, like

00:35:20.060 a really, really

00:35:21.040 the most

00:35:21.560 important thing

00:35:22.200 is to have a

00:35:23.000 solid family

00:35:24.700 unit that can

00:35:25.620 kind of guide

00:35:26.320 your upbringing,

00:35:27.140 right?

00:35:27.660 Those are the

00:35:28.160 things you

00:35:28.460 believe are

00:35:28.820 true.

00:35:30.200 Here's a

00:35:30.860 little factoid

00:35:31.680 from Darren

00:35:32.920 Bell, who is

00:35:33.840 an African

00:35:35.000 American

00:35:35.560 cartoonist, who

00:35:37.300 I've known of,

00:35:39.320 and I've

00:35:39.780 known his

00:35:40.080 work for

00:35:40.480 years, but

00:35:41.420 he got

00:35:41.660 involved in

00:35:42.180 one of the

00:35:42.740 Twitter threads

00:35:43.700 and he

00:35:44.720 dropped this

00:35:45.380 little red

00:35:45.960 pill on me.

00:35:47.780 So I'm

00:35:48.580 going to drop

00:35:48.980 the red

00:35:49.400 pill on you

00:35:50.120 that Darren

00:35:51.420 Bell dropped

00:35:52.720 on me, but

00:35:53.360 you have to

00:35:53.720 fact check

00:35:54.200 this, okay?

00:35:55.420 And it goes

00:35:55.880 like this.

00:35:56.840 It is true

00:35:57.880 that 70% of

00:36:00.320 black babies

00:36:01.160 in 2020 will

00:36:02.780 be born to

00:36:03.480 single parents,

00:36:05.120 but remember

00:36:07.200 what I told

00:36:07.900 you at

00:36:08.340 the very

00:36:08.700 beginning of

00:36:09.240 this podcast

00:36:10.260 when I

00:36:11.640 said that

00:36:12.120 the biggest

00:36:12.680 problem of

00:36:13.300 2020 is

00:36:14.080 that we're

00:36:14.460 measuring the

00:36:15.420 wrong things.

00:36:18.080 Apparently,

00:36:19.040 a huge

00:36:19.700 percentage of

00:36:20.440 that 70%

00:36:21.460 who are

00:36:22.000 single are

00:36:23.620 just living

00:36:24.120 together like

00:36:24.740 they're married

00:36:25.220 and the

00:36:26.240 father is

00:36:27.020 completely

00:36:27.480 involved.

00:36:29.080 And that if

00:36:29.420 you were

00:36:29.640 actually to

00:36:30.180 look at

00:36:30.820 father

00:36:32.220 involvement in

00:36:34.080 a two-parent

00:36:34.740 situation,

00:36:35.960 it's pretty

00:36:37.620 close.

00:36:38.880 It's pretty

00:36:39.320 close.

00:36:40.440 So your

00:36:41.060 most major

00:36:41.960 assumption that

00:36:43.900 these fatherless

00:36:45.100 black kids are 0.86

00:36:46.400 disadvantaged by

00:36:48.000 the fatherlessness,

00:36:49.660 according to

00:36:50.380 Darren Bell, and

00:36:51.820 this is what you

00:36:52.380 need to check,

00:36:53.640 it's just not

00:36:55.340 true.

00:36:56.500 They're

00:36:56.980 technically not

00:36:57.840 married, but

00:36:58.960 they operate as

00:36:59.800 a married unit,

00:37:00.800 and so the

00:37:01.200 father is

00:37:01.660 completely involved.

00:37:03.000 And in fact,

00:37:03.540 if you dig

00:37:04.020 down to

00:37:05.200 feeding and

00:37:06.120 bathing the

00:37:06.680 child, the

00:37:08.140 black fathers,

00:37:09.540 married or

00:37:10.020 not, are in

00:37:11.860 some of those

00:37:12.440 categories actually

00:37:14.160 more involved on

00:37:15.820 average than

00:37:17.600 white fathers.

00:37:20.420 Now look at the

00:37:21.280 comments.

00:37:23.000 Watch the

00:37:23.560 comments go by.

00:37:24.840 Don't think so.

00:37:26.400 Nope, they

00:37:27.400 don't.

00:37:29.980 Blah, blah,

00:37:30.380 blah.

00:37:30.800 Somebody's

00:37:31.320 having cognitive

00:37:32.580 dissonance.

00:37:33.380 somebody is

00:37:35.420 excited by it.

00:37:37.480 Having a guy in

00:37:38.520 the house doesn't

00:37:39.220 equate to a

00:37:39.860 father.

00:37:40.660 Remember, the

00:37:41.280 second part of

00:37:42.020 the survey, and

00:37:43.260 Darren Bell sent

00:37:44.240 the information so

00:37:45.200 I could look at it

00:37:45.840 myself, the second

00:37:47.040 part went down to

00:37:48.060 the details.

00:37:49.420 Do they feed and

00:37:50.440 bathe the kid?

00:37:51.260 Do they watch the

00:37:51.920 kid?

00:37:52.500 And the answer is

00:37:53.360 yes.

00:37:55.280 So whether that's

00:37:56.240 a father-father or

00:37:57.740 the new boyfriend,

00:38:00.260 statistically, that

00:38:01.900 kid's still getting a

00:38:02.760 father.

00:38:04.160 Now, check that

00:38:05.160 for me.

00:38:05.820 Look how many of

00:38:06.640 you are having real

00:38:07.500 trouble with that.

00:38:09.460 Yeah, a lot of

00:38:10.340 you are not liking

00:38:11.880 this at all.

00:38:13.140 Because it just

00:38:14.060 blew up your 0.57

00:38:15.400 most basic

00:38:16.420 assumption.

00:38:17.760 Now, is it

00:38:18.780 true?

00:38:19.820 I would like you

00:38:20.700 to check that.

00:38:21.580 Because if it

00:38:22.100 turns out that

00:38:23.400 Darren Bell is the

00:38:24.300 one that's wrong,

00:38:25.260 well, let's find

00:38:25.820 that out.

00:38:26.680 So let's put a

00:38:27.840 tack in that.

00:38:29.140 By tomorrow,

00:38:30.060 somebody will have

00:38:30.860 tweeted at me or

00:38:31.780 told me the

00:38:32.600 truth.

00:38:34.680 Yeah, I'm

00:38:35.580 watching the

00:38:36.040 comments.

00:38:36.560 Complete disbelief.

00:38:38.340 Hard to believe.

00:38:39.860 Somebody says it

00:38:40.740 does pass the

00:38:41.460 sniff test, but

00:38:42.200 you're not sold.

00:38:45.940 And you're

00:38:46.820 seeing a few

00:38:47.340 people saying,

00:38:48.940 oh, shoot,

00:38:50.800 could we be

00:38:51.520 that wrong?

00:38:52.920 And the answer

00:38:53.660 is you could be.

00:38:55.000 You could be

00:38:55.660 that wrong.

00:38:56.340 now, before I

00:39:01.740 talk about some

00:39:02.520 potentially helpful

00:39:03.600 things for the

00:39:04.460 black community, I

00:39:05.740 would like to

00:39:06.140 update you on my

00:39:07.240 free speech

00:39:08.920 exercise.

00:39:11.220 So as you

00:39:11.800 know, I've been

00:39:12.400 seeing how close I

00:39:13.320 can get to the

00:39:13.920 line of

00:39:14.320 cancellation, not

00:39:15.800 just for fun, but

00:39:17.940 to see if I can

00:39:19.020 get to a point of

00:39:20.000 useful, productive

00:39:22.160 communication on a

00:39:23.620 really sensitive

00:39:24.580 topic, race in

00:39:25.760 America, in 0.81

00:39:27.580 order to be

00:39:28.160 useful, I told

00:39:29.760 you in advance, I'm

00:39:30.780 going to have to

00:39:31.160 walk right up to

00:39:32.100 the line of

00:39:32.700 cancellation, because

00:39:34.480 if I don't get

00:39:35.240 right up to the

00:39:36.080 line, I'm not

00:39:36.760 going to be able to

00:39:37.280 be honest.

00:39:38.040 And if I can't be

00:39:39.600 honest, well, I'm

00:39:41.480 no use at all.

00:39:43.320 Ignore my, that's

00:39:45.220 my dog who's

00:39:46.000 sleep barking, if

00:39:47.620 you hear that

00:39:48.060 in the background.

00:39:49.880 When she sleeps, she

00:39:50.960 runs and barks in

00:39:51.900 her sleep.

00:39:54.760 Anyway, so as

00:39:56.420 part of my

00:39:56.800 experiment to

00:39:57.640 expand my free

00:39:59.280 speech so that I

00:40:00.220 can get to the

00:40:00.760 point of being

00:40:01.240 actually useful, I

00:40:03.980 tweeted this.

00:40:05.440 And by the way, I

00:40:06.380 don't think I could

00:40:07.120 have tweeted this

00:40:07.740 one month ago.

00:40:09.660 But today, no

00:40:11.700 blowback.

00:40:12.440 So far, could

00:40:13.540 come later.

00:40:14.440 So this is a

00:40:15.120 tweet that had no

00:40:16.340 blowback, if you

00:40:17.220 can imagine this.

00:40:18.680 This is from me,

00:40:19.780 this morning.

00:40:21.040 I said, Black

00:40:21.700 Lives Matter is a

00:40:22.760 violent, racist

00:40:23.840 organization that

00:40:25.400 includes lots of

00:40:26.380 people with good

00:40:27.240 intentions who

00:40:28.540 don't fully

00:40:29.180 understand what

00:40:30.140 they're signing on

00:40:31.020 to support.

00:40:33.080 Now, don't you

00:40:33.560 think I would have

00:40:33.980 got canceled for

00:40:34.760 that about a month

00:40:35.460 ago?

00:40:36.400 But today, I can

00:40:37.460 say it.

00:40:38.480 It's partly because

00:40:39.580 the conversation is

00:40:40.700 getting richer.

00:40:41.820 It's partly because

00:40:42.960 people are a little

00:40:44.060 bit more desperate

00:40:44.980 for something that

00:40:46.940 sounds like it's

00:40:47.680 useful, you know,

00:40:49.220 something that's

00:40:49.880 true.

00:40:50.840 And let me say this

00:40:51.940 as clearly as

00:40:52.660 possible.

00:40:53.120 people, and if there

00:40:54.540 are any African

00:40:55.180 American people

00:40:56.040 watching this, there

00:40:57.240 always are.

00:40:58.520 It turns out I've

00:40:59.180 got a fast-growing

00:41:00.980 part of my audience

00:41:04.200 is African-American

00:41:05.560 men and women.

00:41:06.740 More men than women 1.00

00:41:07.520 because I get more

00:41:08.200 men on here than

00:41:08.780 women. 0.81

00:41:09.720 But it's a fast-growing

00:41:10.920 portion of what they're

00:41:11.860 watching.

00:41:12.780 And here's why, the

00:41:13.940 next thing I'm going

00:41:14.900 to say, I think, is

00:41:17.600 why that is.

00:41:19.100 It's just my

00:41:19.900 hypothesis.

00:41:20.560 I can't prove this.

00:41:22.780 I think the reason I'm

00:41:23.900 getting a fast-growing

00:41:25.960 increase in black

00:41:27.900 audience for what I

00:41:29.180 do is that I'm not

00:41:31.420 going to be

00:41:31.860 condescending.

00:41:33.640 I'm not going to

00:41:34.700 treat you like you

00:41:35.520 can't handle the

00:41:36.340 truth.

00:41:38.600 Right?

00:41:39.900 I mean, who doesn't

00:41:40.760 appreciate that?

00:41:42.560 And black people say 0.97

00:41:43.980 this directly all the

00:41:45.960 time.

00:41:46.280 You hear this all the

00:41:47.040 time.

00:41:47.660 I'd rather you just

00:41:48.460 told me the truth.

00:41:50.080 Right?

00:41:50.220 Don't pretend you're

00:41:51.400 blowing smoke on my

00:41:52.280 ass and then go be a 1.00

00:41:53.780 racist privately.

00:41:55.620 Just freaking tell me

00:41:56.920 the truth.

00:41:57.840 Because I can deal with

00:41:58.740 the truth.

00:41:59.640 I just can't deal with

00:42:00.680 this BS stuff.

00:42:02.760 I don't know what to

00:42:03.300 do with that.

00:42:04.540 Perfectly reasonable.

00:42:06.400 So here's some truth.

00:42:07.900 Black people, I'm

00:42:09.360 sorry, here's some

00:42:10.480 truth.

00:42:11.560 White people almost 0.96

00:42:13.340 routinely lie to black 0.60

00:42:14.880 people because they

00:42:15.800 feel they have to.

00:42:16.520 white people almost

00:42:19.740 universally lie to

00:42:21.880 black people about 0.64

00:42:22.740 race because they 0.66

00:42:24.160 feel they have to.

00:42:26.040 So if you would like

00:42:27.380 to have an actual

00:42:28.280 conversation about

00:42:29.340 race, you're going to 0.95

00:42:30.960 have to get to the

00:42:31.700 point where you can

00:42:33.240 convince some white 0.96

00:42:34.060 people to stop lying

00:42:35.060 to you.

00:42:36.280 Because if you can't

00:42:37.220 get them to stop

00:42:37.820 lying to you

00:42:38.700 intentionally, how the

00:42:41.540 hell are you going to

00:42:42.060 make any difference in

00:42:43.400 anything?

00:42:44.820 So while I believe

00:42:46.320 that Black Lives

00:42:47.060 Matter is more of a

00:42:48.760 political, violent,

00:42:50.480 racist organization,

00:42:52.000 that doesn't change

00:42:53.080 the fact that there are

00:42:53.940 lots of things that

00:42:54.680 need to be fixed,

00:42:55.960 whether you're black

00:42:57.380 or anybody else.

00:42:59.020 And here's my current

00:43:01.080 thinking on this.

00:43:02.460 We're going to the

00:43:03.080 whiteboard.

00:43:05.560 How would you know

00:43:06.500 that?

00:43:07.080 He says.

00:43:08.180 No, I'm speculating.

00:43:09.740 So I tell you when I

00:43:11.900 think I know something,

00:43:13.080 and I tell you what

00:43:14.040 I'm speculating.

00:43:15.520 So that was speculation,

00:43:17.040 which you're free to

00:43:18.220 disagree with and or

00:43:19.300 fact check.

00:43:20.640 All right, here's how

00:43:21.240 I see the world.

00:43:24.440 So the Democrats

00:43:25.400 support teachers'

00:43:26.560 unions.

00:43:27.540 Teachers' unions are 0.74

00:43:28.680 the reason that you

00:43:29.720 don't have school

00:43:30.480 choice.

00:43:31.080 That's the reason you

00:43:31.720 have bad teachers.

00:43:33.540 Teachers' unions are 0.74

00:43:34.680 the entire problem

00:43:35.820 because if you get a

00:43:37.620 bad school, you've got

00:43:38.380 a bad life.

00:43:39.140 Where are the bad

00:43:40.020 teachers?

00:43:41.060 They're in the

00:43:41.840 inner cities.

00:43:43.080 disproportionately

00:43:44.040 teaching black

00:43:45.160 students.

00:43:46.620 So basically, the

00:43:47.400 teachers' unions are

00:43:49.240 the source of most

00:43:50.740 racism.

00:43:53.720 Right?

00:43:55.180 Institutional racism

00:43:56.380 is primarily, you know,

00:43:59.420 the thing that I would

00:44:02.760 agree that black people

00:44:04.080 say is that there's

00:44:05.500 definitely a ripple all

00:44:06.740 the way from slavery.

00:44:07.660 There's definitely

00:44:08.760 something about the

00:44:09.640 system that tries to

00:44:11.500 maintain itself, which

00:44:12.700 makes it harder for

00:44:13.960 people to have the

00:44:14.640 mobility that they

00:44:15.480 need.

00:44:16.120 There was way more

00:44:16.920 mobility, I think, when

00:44:18.340 I was a kid.

00:44:19.520 When I was young, there

00:44:20.320 was way more mobility

00:44:21.240 for everybody.

00:44:22.340 So I think there's

00:44:23.000 much to be said about

00:44:24.340 systemic racism.

00:44:25.980 Everybody's got their

00:44:26.640 own definition of it.

00:44:28.280 But this is a good

00:44:29.060 example, in my opinion.

00:44:31.060 This would be

00:44:31.600 systemic racism with

00:44:33.740 the primary system,

00:44:36.200 the teachers' unions.

00:44:37.280 And you can't fix that

00:44:38.680 as long as Democrats

00:44:39.640 have control, because

00:44:41.300 the teachers' unions

00:44:42.360 favor the Democrats.

00:44:43.800 Therefore, the

00:44:44.420 Democrats give the

00:44:45.320 teachers' unions what

00:44:46.320 they want.

00:44:47.280 The Republicans would

00:44:48.500 like to break this

00:44:49.360 model by saying, how

00:44:51.000 about instead of a

00:44:51.780 bad school, how about

00:44:52.880 you have a choice, a

00:44:54.380 little competition in

00:44:55.440 there, right?

00:44:56.780 You know, maybe some

00:44:58.000 charter schools, if you

00:44:59.220 can get them, but at

00:45:00.000 least competition.

00:45:00.760 And so that's the

00:45:03.920 Republican way to fix

00:45:06.280 it.

00:45:06.840 Now, which of those

00:45:08.380 two groups, Democrats

00:45:09.720 or Republicans, are

00:45:11.820 trying to fix systemic

00:45:14.100 racism in the place

00:45:16.540 that it matters the

00:45:17.480 most?

00:45:18.400 In other words, if you

00:45:19.120 get this right, and by

00:45:21.840 the way, you know, the

00:45:23.980 black Americans watching 0.92

00:45:26.680 this, you know, jump in.

00:45:29.420 And I guess on my eye,

00:45:30.480 this bothered me, jump

00:45:31.960 in and agree with

00:45:32.840 this.

00:45:33.280 If you get a solid

00:45:34.680 education, and let's

00:45:35.960 say a useful thing, you

00:45:38.220 still have racism to

00:45:39.560 deal with, but you're

00:45:41.100 going to slice right

00:45:41.820 through it.

00:45:42.860 It doesn't make it go

00:45:44.100 away, but you can make

00:45:46.360 it less important, and

00:45:47.980 everybody's got their

00:45:48.780 thing, right?

00:45:49.700 I'm short, I'm old,

00:45:51.240 you know, you're ugly, 0.91

00:45:53.360 you've got a weight

00:45:53.980 problem, whatever it is.

00:45:54.900 Everybody's got

00:45:55.440 something.

00:45:56.660 But if you've got a

00:45:57.320 strong training and

00:45:59.120 background and

00:46:00.200 education, you can

00:46:01.560 probably slice through

00:46:02.560 your problem, too.

00:46:04.080 Just different

00:46:04.780 problems.

00:46:06.280 All right, then there's

00:46:07.640 the cities, because you

00:46:09.100 can't, it's hard to fix

00:46:10.840 anything, including the

00:46:12.220 schools, if you're living

00:46:14.020 in a place that's, you

00:46:15.180 know, so depressed

00:46:15.940 economically.

00:46:17.100 And of course, the mayors

00:46:19.540 tend to be democratic in

00:46:21.020 the big urban areas, and

00:46:23.240 nothing can get fixed in an

00:46:25.180 urban area if there's

00:46:26.700 money involved, because

00:46:28.660 the people who want to

00:46:30.260 sell their services to

00:46:31.620 the city can just bribe

00:46:33.740 people easily.

00:46:34.720 Now, this has nothing to

00:46:35.760 do with race.

00:46:37.860 There's no race in this 0.89

00:46:38.980 conversation.

00:46:40.020 As long as you have this

00:46:41.200 model for cities, where

00:46:42.980 the people running the

00:46:43.980 city can take bribes by,

00:46:46.720 you know, big contractors,

00:46:48.000 et cetera, to do things,

00:46:49.440 how can anything ever get

00:46:50.580 fixed?

00:46:51.800 It doesn't even, there's

00:46:53.220 no system here that can

00:46:54.300 fix that.

00:46:55.400 The system as it exists is

00:46:57.820 one, super racist, two,

00:47:01.680 unfixable.

00:47:02.920 It's completely unfixable,

00:47:04.960 because you're going to be

00:47:06.080 living in the middle of

00:47:07.120 just garbage if you don't

00:47:09.420 have any way for the mayor

00:47:10.620 to do a real job when

00:47:13.720 they're being bribed to do

00:47:15.640 whatever the contractors

00:47:16.560 want.

00:47:17.500 All right.

00:47:18.880 The only way I could think

00:47:20.180 of to fix the problem of

00:47:22.300 cities being poorly managed

00:47:23.960 is by the, what I've called

00:47:26.880 government in a box.

00:47:29.380 Now, I think somebody needs

00:47:30.860 to create the government

00:47:32.720 in a box option so that

00:47:34.920 voters can at least have an

00:47:37.120 option.

00:47:38.060 Imagine if you would.

00:47:39.580 I don't know.

00:47:40.540 Now, in California, you can

00:47:41.720 put anything on a ballot,

00:47:43.480 you know, called a

00:47:44.340 proposition, if you get

00:47:45.840 enough signatures.

00:47:46.800 I don't know how widespread

00:47:47.780 that is, so somebody fact

00:47:49.660 check me on this.

00:47:50.340 But suppose that you had

00:47:52.320 an urban area that was

00:47:53.360 just a mess.

00:47:53.980 Let's take Baltimore.

00:47:55.400 So Baltimore is just a mess,

00:47:57.240 right?

00:47:58.120 And we know that, you know,

00:48:01.260 the governance is probably

00:48:03.620 part of the problem

00:48:04.380 historically.

00:48:06.340 Suppose somebody started a

00:48:08.500 petition and said, look,

00:48:10.260 if we get enough signatures

00:48:11.440 here and enough votes,

00:48:13.080 we will replace the mayor

00:48:14.980 and the administration

00:48:15.820 for, let's say,

00:48:18.240 one year, could be

00:48:19.900 three years, whatever it

00:48:20.940 is, but limited time

00:48:22.300 with this government

00:48:24.260 in a box, which might

00:48:25.500 be, who knows,

00:48:27.120 maybe it's people from

00:48:28.320 Switzerland who just

00:48:30.220 want to come in and

00:48:31.300 they don't care about

00:48:31.980 your country, they're 1.00

00:48:32.740 just trying to do their

00:48:33.480 job, so they get

00:48:34.240 recommended to be

00:48:35.880 government in a box

00:48:36.820 in another city.

00:48:37.660 So they want to do a

00:48:38.340 good job just because

00:48:39.300 it's a business, right?

00:48:41.280 A government doesn't need

00:48:42.340 to do a good job if it

00:48:43.640 can also get elected.

00:48:45.240 If your mayor knows he

00:48:47.180 or she is going to get

00:48:48.020 re-elected, they don't

00:48:49.960 really have to do a good

00:48:50.940 job.

00:48:52.000 But if you had a

00:48:52.820 government in a box,

00:48:53.900 which was a private

00:48:54.800 company, let's say

00:48:55.740 consultants, who would

00:48:57.500 come in for a year or

00:48:58.440 three, just straighten

00:48:59.460 things out, get things

00:49:01.020 on the right track, and

00:49:02.460 then at the end of that

00:49:03.880 you say, all right, it's

00:49:05.260 time for these guys to

00:49:06.160 move on, fix another

00:49:07.960 city.

00:49:09.940 But until that exists,

00:49:11.600 until you have a

00:49:13.620 government in the box

00:49:14.600 option, until somebody

00:49:17.180 offers it, you're just

00:49:19.720 stuck with the old

00:49:20.380 system, which is racist

00:49:23.260 in a systemic way.

00:49:25.820 Now, let me offer you my

00:49:27.620 most provocative thought

00:49:30.060 for ending racism.

00:49:34.060 Now, would it end

00:49:35.400 racism?

00:49:35.940 It would come close.

00:49:36.620 So, let's say ending

00:49:38.360 racism is too big,

00:49:39.520 because we're, you

00:49:40.820 know, humans are just,

00:49:42.840 we're unfixable when it

00:49:44.480 comes to recognizing

00:49:45.680 patterns, especially

00:49:47.840 fake patterns.

00:49:49.200 So, you can't get rid of

00:49:50.480 people's bias, but you

00:49:51.680 can certainly find

00:49:53.040 systems that overcome

00:49:54.220 them so well that they

00:49:56.180 don't matter as much.

00:49:57.540 All right, here's the

00:49:58.140 most provocative thing I

00:49:59.420 will ever say.

00:50:00.720 You ready?

00:50:01.260 And I can only say

00:50:03.100 this because you've,

00:50:04.280 those of you who have

00:50:04.900 followed my lessons on

00:50:06.340 persuasion, and you know

00:50:08.160 that facts don't matter,

00:50:09.340 et cetera.

00:50:11.380 You have to brainwash

00:50:13.060 children.

00:50:15.120 Children need to be 0.92

00:50:17.280 brainwashed.

00:50:18.380 They need it.

00:50:19.480 Because if you don't

00:50:20.500 brainwash them, somebody

00:50:22.340 else will.

00:50:23.720 Either television will, or

00:50:25.520 their friends will, or

00:50:27.000 they'll just work it out

00:50:29.400 on their own, which is

00:50:30.280 the worst case, if you

00:50:31.840 don't brainwash kids, and

00:50:33.980 I'm using that term very

00:50:35.660 thoughtfully, children are

00:50:39.780 not influenced, they're

00:50:41.880 brainwashed.

00:50:43.420 And you've got to do it

00:50:44.960 right, or you don't get a

00:50:46.600 good kid.

00:50:47.860 Right?

00:50:48.480 So, how could black 1.00

00:50:51.260 America brainwash its own 0.99

00:50:53.940 kids easily?

00:50:56.500 Easily.

00:50:58.000 And fix an entire

00:50:59.680 generation the moment

00:51:01.380 they're born.

00:51:02.800 Right?

00:51:03.020 So, here's an idea that

00:51:04.440 won't fix people who have

00:51:05.700 already been born, and

00:51:07.220 have already reached a

00:51:08.580 certain age.

00:51:09.480 I'm talking about

00:51:10.320 something that would

00:51:11.040 stop it cold from this

00:51:14.680 point on, so that the

00:51:15.840 next baby born would be

00:51:17.680 born into a better world.

00:51:18.920 And here it goes.

00:51:20.680 You convince, somehow,

00:51:22.320 because this would require

00:51:23.120 persuasion as well.

00:51:24.260 So, the black community

00:51:25.320 would have to embrace this

00:51:26.840 wildly for it to work.

00:51:28.980 You embrace this, that

00:51:30.960 education is the key to

00:51:33.340 success.

00:51:34.320 Now, education including

00:51:35.700 any kind of profession.

00:51:38.560 So, I'm talking about a

00:51:39.500 skill stack, I'm talking

00:51:41.680 about the kinds of things

00:51:43.000 you would learn in this

00:51:43.820 book, etc.

00:51:45.160 And so, this is all

00:51:48.220 education, but I'll say a

00:51:49.800 practical education.

00:51:51.480 So, imagine if you will, the

00:51:53.380 black America says, hey, 0.88

00:51:54.600 let's end racism.

00:51:57.560 And everybody will say,

00:51:59.080 that's not possible, that's

00:52:00.420 too hard.

00:52:01.540 Oh, yeah?

00:52:02.700 Watch this.

00:52:04.460 Watch this.

00:52:05.760 We're going to get every

00:52:07.320 mother, you don't even need 1.00

00:52:09.960 the fathers for this.

00:52:11.780 And I'll tell you why you

00:52:12.860 don't need the fathers in a

00:52:13.820 minute.

00:52:14.000 But you don't need the

00:52:14.740 fathers to be part of this.

00:52:16.220 Just the moms. 1.00

00:52:17.480 Keep it simple.

00:52:18.540 The fathers can help, but

00:52:19.820 they're not required.

00:52:22.040 And the mother, from the

00:52:23.280 first time the baby can hear,

00:52:25.760 says, you're going to

00:52:27.440 college.

00:52:28.820 Or, education is the

00:52:31.180 thing.

00:52:32.340 Education is the thing.

00:52:34.700 Education is the thing.

00:52:37.060 And you just brainwash those

00:52:39.060 kids into thinking, education

00:52:41.420 is the thing.

00:52:43.340 Now, I've gone further and

00:52:45.040 said, you can make a

00:52:46.120 checklist and say, if you

00:52:48.200 don't, if you check any of

00:52:50.080 these boxes, you're not

00:52:51.060 going to succeed.

00:52:52.160 One of them, did you have

00:52:53.180 trouble with the law?

00:52:54.820 Did you get involved with

00:52:56.000 drugs or a gang?

00:52:57.220 You know, so it's sort of an

00:52:58.180 easy checklist.

00:52:59.400 And you just give that

00:53:00.320 checklist to every new mom

00:53:02.300 in an urban area.

00:53:03.980 And again, this would work,

00:53:05.340 this works for everybody.

00:53:07.000 The fact that I'm talking

00:53:07.900 about the black experience

00:53:10.080 doesn't mean it's limited.

00:53:11.860 This would work for

00:53:12.900 everybody.

00:53:14.720 And you just say, here's

00:53:15.980 the checklist, kid.

00:53:17.460 Oh, you're only two years

00:53:18.540 old, you don't quite

00:53:19.400 understand this.

00:53:20.640 Well, look how important

00:53:21.640 it is.

00:53:22.300 I know you don't

00:53:22.900 understand it.

00:53:24.020 And you're three years

00:53:24.800 old, still don't understand

00:53:25.840 it, but you realize

00:53:26.600 there's a checklist.

00:53:27.540 These are the things you

00:53:28.200 need to do.

00:53:29.000 Stay off drugs.

00:53:29.820 Education is the key.

00:53:31.620 Then the kid's about five.

00:53:32.980 At around five, they don't

00:53:36.380 understand how the world

00:53:37.820 works, but the brainwashing

00:53:39.800 becomes permanent.

00:53:41.660 Education is your way to

00:53:43.060 success.

00:53:43.680 Education is your way to

00:53:44.860 success.

00:53:45.820 Education.

00:53:46.500 And again, practical education.

00:53:48.820 I'm not talking about, you

00:53:50.660 know, an English degree.

00:53:52.880 I mean, it could be

00:53:53.740 mechanics or programming or

00:53:55.940 any practical thing.

00:53:57.420 And what would happen 18

00:54:02.320 years from then, or let's

00:54:04.020 say 20 years from, 21 years

00:54:05.760 from then, 21 years from

00:54:07.900 then, let's say that every

00:54:09.540 black mother just started 1.00

00:54:10.620 drilling that into their

00:54:11.800 kids.

00:54:12.440 Doesn't mean they all do it,

00:54:14.080 but they're drilling it in.

00:54:15.840 And you start developing a

00:54:18.060 generation, which 21 years

00:54:21.300 from now, you're an

00:54:22.340 employer.

00:54:23.920 All right, wait for this.

00:54:24.960 Here's the good part.

00:54:25.680 It's 21 years in the future

00:54:27.520 and you're an employer.

00:54:30.160 A black applicant comes in, 0.99

00:54:32.480 fresh out of college.

00:54:35.000 What do you say to yourself?

00:54:37.720 Because you're a racist.

00:54:40.280 Because everybody's biased,

00:54:41.800 right?

00:54:42.180 It's just now something you

00:54:43.300 can turn off.

00:54:44.620 So what do you say to

00:54:45.540 yourself 21 years after that

00:54:48.080 all started, hypothetically?

00:54:49.840 You say to yourself, oh, good.

00:54:53.440 I got a super baby.

00:54:55.680 I got a super baby.

00:54:58.960 You're hired.

00:55:01.620 Because all you want to hear

00:55:03.040 if you're an employer is that

00:55:05.500 you got a kid who came up

00:55:06.860 through a system from the

00:55:08.340 moment they were born,

00:55:09.840 educate, educate, educate,

00:55:11.520 educate, educate, educate.

00:55:13.420 It's your way out.

00:55:14.580 You tell me that kid doesn't

00:55:16.020 get the job?

00:55:17.580 No, that kid gets the job.

00:55:19.060 And what happens when that kid,

00:55:21.780 well-educated, does well?

00:55:24.520 Well, people start noticing it.

00:55:26.420 You could, in one generation,

00:55:29.280 turn racism upside down.

00:55:32.420 And you could say to yourself,

00:55:34.340 black kid comes in for an interview.

00:55:36.620 He's 21.

00:55:37.780 And from the moment he was born,

00:55:40.100 he was drilled with education.

00:55:41.400 White kid comes in, 0.99

00:55:44.360 looks like sort of a similar background,

00:55:46.960 but you don't know what kind of

00:55:48.140 programming that kid had.

00:55:51.300 I don't know.

00:55:52.300 I think you take the one that got brainwashed

00:55:54.500 the most productive way,

00:55:56.620 education.

00:55:57.660 Now, why do I mention this?

00:55:59.720 Because this is what my mother did to me.

00:56:02.780 My mother was not educated,

00:56:05.820 nor was my father.

00:56:07.520 Both my mother and my father

00:56:08.800 had to repeat a grade in school.

00:56:12.060 Now, my mother,

00:56:12.760 because she had some family problems.

00:56:15.320 My father, because he just had a low IQ.

00:56:18.680 So he just failed a grade

00:56:19.780 in the way that people do.

00:56:21.860 So neither of my parents had any college.

00:56:26.160 But from the moment I could understand language,

00:56:31.180 my mother said to me,

00:56:32.580 you're going to college.

00:56:34.500 It's the key to your success.

00:56:36.380 You can do anything you want.

00:56:38.220 You're going to college.

00:56:39.300 It's the key to your success.

00:56:40.600 You're going to college.

00:56:42.160 Now, she didn't have any money

00:56:43.740 and didn't even know anybody

00:56:45.740 had been to college.

00:56:46.640 But that simple little mantra,

00:56:48.960 if I could call it that,

00:56:50.880 programmed me.

00:56:52.320 It programmed me.

00:56:53.300 There was not one moment of my life

00:56:56.260 that I didn't think I was going to college

00:56:58.780 and we couldn't even afford it.

00:57:00.920 We couldn't even come close to affording it,

00:57:02.680 especially with three kids.

00:57:04.280 We figured it out.

00:57:05.780 You know, I got some scholarships

00:57:06.820 and, you know, my brother and sister

00:57:08.840 went to less expensive colleges, etc.

00:57:11.220 We figured it out.

00:57:13.160 But we never doubted

00:57:14.780 that that was the path.

00:57:16.940 Now, that's my suggestion.

00:57:18.840 It's something that 100% of people could do.

00:57:21.560 There's no mother who couldn't program their kid. 0.99

00:57:24.720 You just have to say it

00:57:26.300 over and over and over again.

00:57:27.720 That's all it is.

00:57:29.420 Kids can be programmed just by repetition.

00:57:33.220 Consistency and repetition.

00:57:35.380 That's all it is.

00:57:36.420 In one generation,

00:57:37.940 you could turn a black applicant 0.98

00:57:41.020 into a super baby.

00:57:44.520 In other words,

00:57:45.680 the employer says,

00:57:46.660 yeah, I want somebody who came up

00:57:48.780 with that kind of programming.

00:57:49.800 All right.

00:57:54.700 That probably was just about all I wanted to...

00:57:57.800 Oh, yeah.

00:57:58.160 There's another interesting thing.

00:57:59.540 Elon Musk is having an online debate

00:58:02.060 with some other smart people and experts.

00:58:05.640 And Elon is pointing out

00:58:06.960 that the coronavirus test kits

00:58:11.340 can be as inaccurate

00:58:13.760 as 50% false positive.

00:58:16.280 It could be as high as 50% false positive.

00:58:20.540 And he's saying that's the reason

00:58:22.820 the number of infections

00:58:25.120 seems to be going up.

00:58:27.020 It's a combination of more testing,

00:58:29.020 plus the fact that the testing

00:58:30.920 is so inaccurate,

00:58:32.300 plus the fact,

00:58:33.660 as other people piled in and said,

00:58:36.320 that the hospitals are now open

00:58:37.900 for other business.

00:58:39.440 Now, I have a surgery scheduled,

00:58:41.180 minor surgery scheduled,

00:58:42.660 and I can tell you for sure

00:58:44.280 that the process is

00:58:45.960 I have to get a coronavirus test

00:58:48.000 and then I have to self-quarantine

00:58:50.080 for two weeks

00:58:50.980 before I go in for my surgery.

00:58:53.860 Now, this is elective.

00:58:55.280 But suppose you went in,

00:58:56.860 you just went in

00:58:57.820 and you didn't have a surgery plan.

00:59:00.460 You just went in

00:59:01.220 to the emergency room.

00:59:03.020 Well, the first thing they do

00:59:03.960 is they test you for coronavirus.

00:59:05.120 So if there are simply more people

00:59:08.000 going to the hospital

00:59:08.880 for unrelated reasons,

00:59:10.740 you're going to pick up

00:59:11.520 a lot more coronavirus

00:59:12.480 because some of them will have it.

00:59:15.300 So Elon is arguing the point.

00:59:20.100 Now, I'm not sure that I agree

00:59:21.260 with Elon's point

00:59:22.320 because these are complicated situations

00:59:25.320 and there's probably a lot of stuff

00:59:27.420 I don't know,

00:59:28.120 but it would explain the unexplained.

00:59:31.000 The most unexplained thing

00:59:33.260 in this phenomenon,

00:59:34.880 correct me if I'm wrong,

00:59:36.160 the most unexplained thing

00:59:37.500 is why infections are going up

00:59:39.820 while death rates are going down.

00:59:42.240 Oh, I know what you're going to say.

00:59:43.520 It's the time lag.

00:59:45.140 But I don't think the time lag

00:59:47.020 is going to change it.

00:59:48.860 That's my prediction.

00:59:50.600 There might be some change,

00:59:51.820 but it's not going to change

00:59:52.600 the major trend.

00:59:54.700 The major trend is that

00:59:56.020 infections are going up

00:59:57.200 and deaths are going down.

00:59:59.440 I think that's going to continue.

01:00:02.060 And I don't know

01:00:02.620 how you would explain that

01:00:03.840 other than you're detecting

01:00:05.740 more cases that are the mild kind.

01:00:08.540 I mean, that would be

01:00:09.080 part of the explanation.

01:00:10.360 The other part could be

01:00:11.460 they're doing better with meds,

01:00:13.160 they're doing better with ventilators.

01:00:15.500 You know, they're just getting

01:00:16.220 smarter in general.

01:00:17.220 It's possible.

01:00:18.800 All right.

01:00:20.120 That is what I wanted to cover today.

01:00:22.960 So I believe I've said,

01:00:24.580 let's see, what have we fixed today?

01:00:25.960 We fixed the long-term economy

01:00:28.620 to make us protected against robots

01:00:31.340 by building a national network

01:00:35.000 of bicycle paths

01:00:36.280 and turning us into a bicycle

01:00:38.320 tourist destination

01:00:39.360 with mostly e-bikes in the future.

01:00:42.420 We've fixed racism

01:00:44.420 by, I told you, a mantra.

01:00:48.360 Three words.

01:00:50.260 No, how many words?

01:00:51.960 Education is the key.

01:00:55.700 Education is the key.

01:00:57.100 All right, four words, five words,

01:00:58.580 whatever you want.

01:00:59.500 But something like that,

01:01:00.480 a little mantra for mothers

01:01:02.100 would transform children.

01:01:05.580 Now, you still have to keep them

01:01:06.920 out of jail and all that.

01:01:08.940 So that's another problem.

01:01:10.980 And of course, if you voted Republicans

01:01:13.260 and you could get maybe

01:01:14.980 some school choice

01:01:15.980 and that would fix

01:01:17.240 your school situation.

01:01:18.580 Yeah, I think we fixed

01:01:19.620 just about everything today.

01:01:21.580 Is there anything

01:01:22.340 I haven't fixed yet?

01:01:24.260 I don't think so.

01:01:25.360 I fixed your personal lives

01:01:27.760 so you all have better lives

01:01:29.380 because of this.

01:01:30.740 Yeah, I think

01:01:31.360 almost everything is fixed.

01:01:34.160 Do we have any other problems

01:01:35.540 you'd like me to get to?

01:01:40.220 All right.

01:01:40.920 Well, let's end on that

01:01:41.940 because I think

01:01:42.380 that's the good news.

01:01:43.720 And things are looking up.

01:01:45.280 Stock market's good.

01:01:47.100 This country

01:01:47.900 is going to be fine.

01:01:50.440 And so will you.

01:01:51.840 Talk to you later.

01:01:52.500 Thank you.

01:01:55.080 Bye.

01:01:55.220 Bye.

01:01:56.060 Bye.

01:01:57.580 Bye.

01:01:59.060 Bye.

01:01:59.980 Bye.

01:02:01.380 Bye.

01:02:02.220 Bye.

01:02:02.300 Bye.

01:02:04.480 Bye.

01:02:05.700 Bye.

01:02:08.560 Bye.

01:02:14.420 Bye.

01:02:15.440 Bye.

01:02:16.300 Bye.

01:02:17.360 Bye.

01:02:17.800 Bye.

01:02:18.300 Bye.

01:02:18.800 Bye.

01:02:19.800 Bye.

01:02:20.340 Bye.

01:02:20.380 Bye.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 03, 2020

Episode 1046 Scott Adams： #BLM, Strategy, HCQ, Kamala, Fixing Schools and More

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