Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 16, 2020


Episode 1059 Scott Adams： Twitter Hackers, Biden Plans, Education Improvements, Shy Trump Supporters, More


Episode Stats

Length

57 minutes

Words per Minute

148.43079

Word Count

8,461

Sentence Count

565

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

10


Summary

On today's show, Scott Adams talks about the latest in the Elon Musk vs. Joe Biden debate, and why he thinks Joe Biden is a better presidential candidate than Donald Trump. Plus, a lot of other stuff.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 All right, I know what you're used to.
00:00:11.300 What you usually see when you come here to visit me at this exact time every day
00:00:16.600 is you think you're going to have the best time of your day
00:00:20.260 because that's what the simultaneous sip is really every time.
00:00:24.980 But today, it's going to be better than that.
00:00:28.620 I'm going to give you the only thing that's better than the simultaneous sip.
00:00:32.700 Are you ready?
00:00:33.920 The only thing that's better than the simultaneous sip?
00:00:37.440 Ah, I'm just kidding.
00:00:38.900 There's nothing better than the simultaneous sip.
00:00:41.400 Come on.
00:00:42.340 Get out of here.
00:00:43.620 Let's have it.
00:00:44.720 Let's have at it.
00:00:46.120 All you need is a cover mug or a glass of tank or chalice or steinocantean jug or flask
00:00:50.620 of a vessel of any kind.
00:00:53.700 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:00:57.020 I like coffee.
00:00:58.620 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day,
00:01:03.000 the thing that makes everything better, including autocorrect, pandemics,
00:01:08.900 pretty much everything.
00:01:10.900 Go.
00:01:11.320 All right.
00:01:17.060 Somebody was making me laugh in the comments because yesterday autocorrect played a little
00:01:23.260 joke on me.
00:01:25.420 So I had author Bjorn Lomborg on Periscope yesterday.
00:01:32.560 Most of you saw it.
00:01:33.420 And when I typed in the title into Periscope, Periscope changed it to Lamborghini.
00:01:40.660 So I can't really edit it after it's published in Periscope.
00:01:44.600 You can change it in YouTube and other places.
00:01:46.560 But in Periscope, you can't really go back and change it because it's like a tweet.
00:01:52.340 So I have somebody on to promote his book.
00:01:56.660 And I don't think we get his name right.
00:01:58.620 But I'll correct that now.
00:01:59.800 It's Lamborghini.
00:02:00.520 Not Lamborghini.
00:02:01.900 It's Lamborghini.
00:02:04.060 All right.
00:02:05.820 You probably are all aware that Twitter got hacked.
00:02:10.140 And boy, did Twitter get hacked.
00:02:12.780 Talk about a good hack.
00:02:14.920 I'm kind of, you know, do you ever have that feeling when you hear about a really good serial
00:02:20.080 killer?
00:02:21.740 I'm not proud of this.
00:02:23.280 But every now and then, I'll hear a story about some serial killer who, you know, built
00:02:30.360 an underground bunker to keep his victims and he had a plan and he operated for years.
00:02:36.400 And I'll have two different feelings about it.
00:02:39.000 One, well, that's awful.
00:02:41.360 That's the worst thing, you know, I've heard today.
00:02:45.220 That's one feeling.
00:02:46.900 And then the other feeling I get is, that's kind of industrious.
00:02:50.480 You know, if I'm being fair, you know, he's not lazy.
00:02:56.600 You know, he's good at executing a plan.
00:02:59.940 Maybe a systems over goals kind of guy.
00:03:02.400 I don't know.
00:03:04.360 But I'm always impressed when people put a little effort into it.
00:03:09.960 All right.
00:03:11.580 And these hackers for Twitter, they had a really good plan.
00:03:16.960 The plan was, and I guess it worked,
00:03:19.000 they somehow, allegedly, we don't know if this part is true yet, but there's some suggestion
00:03:25.200 that they may have bribed somebody within Twitter to give them some access.
00:03:30.660 They took over some accounts, some big ones like Biden, Elon Musk.
00:03:35.500 And then they tweeted from their accounts as if they had been tweeting.
00:03:39.640 And they tweeted that if, for, on behalf of some fake charity, that if you would send them
00:03:46.640 $2,000, no, $1,000 in Bitcoin, you would get back $2,000.
00:03:52.840 Now, I don't know how many people in the world are dumb enough to fall for that.
00:03:58.060 But it turns out it's at least 100.
00:04:00.120 So if you're wondering to yourself, Scott, you said that was a clever plan?
00:04:07.400 That's not a clever plan.
00:04:09.220 Who in the world would be dumb enough to send a stranger or a strange charity $1,000 in the hopes
00:04:18.260 that they would send you $2,000 back?
00:04:20.360 That doesn't even make sense.
00:04:23.960 Well, it turns out if enough people see that offer, you're going to get a few hundred.
00:04:28.320 And that's what happened.
00:04:29.880 And the brilliance of the plan is that because the tweeting came from well-established accounts
00:04:36.260 that would not scam you, you thought, well, Elon Musk isn't going to run some scam,
00:04:42.560 and Joe Biden isn't going to run some scam in the middle of an election.
00:04:47.220 But there it was.
00:04:48.480 Now, what's interesting is, you may not know this, but Joe Biden is not actually the only
00:04:55.160 person who's running for president this year.
00:04:57.480 There's this other guy, you've heard of him, Trump.
00:05:00.800 And what does it tell you that Biden was selected but Trump wasn't?
00:05:06.620 Now, it could be.
00:05:08.220 It could be that there's a political element to this, but probably not.
00:05:14.140 Here's what I think.
00:05:15.280 I think they thought Biden would be more convincing.
00:05:20.140 I think they just figured that Biden would be more likely to do this and that people would
00:05:26.180 trust Biden more than Trump if it looks suspicious.
00:05:30.100 And they're probably right.
00:05:32.060 So that was a clever hacker plan.
00:05:34.440 Probably more clever hacking than it was anything political.
00:05:39.560 All right.
00:05:42.100 There are new stories about the so-called refrigerated trucks to put all the bodies from the coronavirus deaths.
00:05:51.460 You've heard the refrigerated truck story before.
00:05:56.220 Maybe it's true this time.
00:05:58.700 Maybe it was true the other time.
00:06:00.360 But what do I tell you about persuasion?
00:06:04.120 I tell you that if you can't make it visual, it's not nearly as good.
00:06:08.880 So compare these two versions of a story.
00:06:12.180 One, hospitals are impacted.
00:06:16.060 They're overloaded.
00:06:17.140 People are, you know, there's lots of pressure on them, et cetera.
00:06:20.640 All right.
00:06:20.900 So that's sort of the generic conceptual description of what's happening in the hospitals compared to three refrigerated trucks pulled up to hold all the bodies.
00:06:34.540 Right.
00:06:35.260 Those are not comparable.
00:06:37.200 One of them is a movie because you can actually see the trucks pulling up in your head.
00:06:42.380 That's that's persuasive.
00:06:43.840 If you can see it as a movie, you're already half persuaded.
00:06:49.300 If it's a concept, your brain doesn't hold it.
00:06:52.260 It doesn't stick to things as well because you want to activate your visual part of your brain to to get something done.
00:06:59.580 So I would ask you, how true is it that these refrigerated trucks are really going to be used and they really exist?
00:07:09.700 I think in today's world, you just have to doubt that.
00:07:13.840 That doesn't mean it's untrue.
00:07:15.480 If it turns out that they're really used, that would be terrible.
00:07:18.460 And I would say, oh, OK, well, that's that's what they reported.
00:07:22.660 But you have to at least put a little bit of skepticism in this story.
00:07:27.820 I don't know how much.
00:07:29.440 Twenty five percent minimum, I would say.
00:07:31.860 I would say dial up your skepticism to at least twenty five percent on the refrigerated corpse trucks, which might be totally real.
00:07:42.840 Seventy five percent chance.
00:07:44.140 But I don't know.
00:07:47.540 I am amazed and agog.
00:07:50.160 I don't know what agog means exactly, but I think I'm agog.
00:07:56.400 Alexa, define agog.
00:07:58.720 As an adjective, agog is usually defined as.
00:08:03.800 Defined as?
00:08:04.420 I'm excited by eagerness, curiosity.
00:08:06.820 Eagerness and curiosity.
00:08:08.920 Yes.
00:08:09.500 And after, agog is usually defined as.
00:08:11.060 OK, OK.
00:08:11.840 All right.
00:08:13.820 That's enough.
00:08:15.160 Calm down.
00:08:16.280 All right.
00:08:17.420 With eager curiosity, I look at these stories about that they seem to be settled now.
00:08:25.080 So, apparently, gun purchases are way up.
00:08:30.680 And in the past, when there have been gun purchases, because, you know, whenever there's a big story in the news about any kind of upheaval in this country, there always are more gun purchases.
00:08:42.940 But in the past, apparently, those gun purchases were primarily, they were primarily for people who already own guns.
00:08:51.940 This time, 40 percent of the gun purchases are people who have never owned a gun before.
00:08:57.240 Forty percent.
00:08:59.300 What does that mean?
00:09:01.140 Forty percent are new gun owners.
00:09:03.140 Somebody asked online, somebody asked, how many are the more Democrats?
00:09:09.000 I would also ask, how many of them did not answer a poll?
00:09:16.120 But here's the part that's amazing.
00:09:18.720 The gun debate is just over.
00:09:21.440 But there are no stories about the gun debate being over, because it would be kind of embarrassing.
00:09:28.240 Now, if you can think way, way, way back to a year ago and beyond, I'm pro-Second Amendment, pro-gun.
00:09:38.280 And although I'm left of Bernie in general, I describe myself that way, gun ownership is one of those things that isn't really left or right.
00:09:51.700 A gun is a tool.
00:09:53.340 Would you agree?
00:09:54.740 That even thinking of guns as a political topic doesn't exactly make sense to me.
00:10:00.920 Because I don't think that my hammer or my saw are political, right?
00:10:07.920 I just think of them as tools.
00:10:10.100 And a firearm for self-defense is just a tool.
00:10:14.260 So I don't really think of that as either left or right, which is why I give myself the freedom to just say, well, all right.
00:10:20.480 Is it a tool I need?
00:10:23.860 Is it a tool I might need?
00:10:26.060 Is it a tool anybody needs?
00:10:28.480 So that's the only way I think of guns.
00:10:30.540 I don't think of it politically.
00:10:32.480 And one of the biggest arguments was, what happens if the government goes bad and tries to take over the citizens and become a dictatorship?
00:10:41.840 And people would argue, well, it's a good thing we all have guns, because that would make that less likely.
00:10:48.080 And other people would argue, no, you can't go up against the government because they have tanks and nuclear weapons and stuff.
00:10:54.360 To which I've always said, that's not what the fight looks like.
00:10:58.780 That's not what it would look like.
00:11:00.980 What are you imagining?
00:11:02.120 Are you imagining a line of tanks and soldiers on the right and then the left, a bunch of citizens with their handguns and, you know, some rifles and stuff?
00:11:10.540 Well, that's not what's going to happen if there were any kind of a dictatorship kind of takeover.
00:11:16.160 It would be more house to house, if you know what I mean.
00:11:20.340 So anybody who was on the side of the government would get a visit by their neighbors.
00:11:26.280 You know what I'm saying?
00:11:27.260 It would be nothing like some big battle.
00:11:30.760 It would be, let's visit your neighbor, because your neighbor has a family member who's on the dictator side.
00:11:38.400 That's what it would be.
00:11:39.480 And that would be enough to keep the dictator in control, because the citizens would have just too much power.
00:11:48.320 One of the things I had not specifically thought of, but now you can't unthink it, is what happens if there's a civil war that just comes from the citizens themselves?
00:11:59.560 Because that's sort of the feeling that you're getting with these protests, is it's approaching something like a civil war.
00:12:08.100 My opinion is it's not, and that your feeling about it is way overblown.
00:12:13.940 But it feels like that.
00:12:17.280 And anybody who's lived through this period is done with the gun conversation.
00:12:24.500 It's just over.
00:12:25.200 And I don't even think I would address anybody who wanted to talk about it at this point.
00:12:31.160 It feels like it is so off the table that if somebody said, Scott, do you want to come and represent one side in the gun debate?
00:12:39.600 Here would be my answer.
00:12:41.940 What gun debate?
00:12:43.460 What gun debate are you talking about?
00:12:46.060 Oh, you mean in the past?
00:12:47.180 Do you have a time machine where I can go back in the past and have a debate back when there was actually something to debate?
00:12:54.200 There's no longer a debate.
00:12:57.020 This ended it.
00:12:59.000 But the other one that may have ended recently in a very quiet way is climate change.
00:13:07.940 Have you heard of climate change?
00:13:10.700 Climate change just got a little gut punch by Joe Biden being in favor of nuclear energy.
00:13:20.560 Do you know who else is in favor of nuclear energy?
00:13:24.080 The Trump administration and the Department of Energy working quite aggressively for nuclear energy.
00:13:30.940 Do you know what everybody who could actually do math and science, do you know what they think is really the only way you're going to get to some kind of a no carbon situation?
00:13:45.300 Nuclear, pretty much.
00:13:47.540 I mean, everybody's in favor, I think, of doing more research.
00:13:51.340 And if you can figure out, you know, better batteries or better energy or something.
00:13:55.420 Sure, sure.
00:13:57.100 Everybody's in favor of that.
00:13:58.240 But at the same time, if you're not doing nuclear, well, you're not trying that hard.
00:14:04.180 You're not really serious.
00:14:06.140 So I think the climate change argument just sort of disappeared and it got attacked from two different directions in a very important way.
00:14:17.760 Direction number one is what are you going to do about it, right?
00:14:22.060 So there's how bad is it and what are you going to do about it are the two questions about climate change.
00:14:27.480 Would you agree?
00:14:28.760 How bad is it?
00:14:29.800 What are you going to do about it?
00:14:31.620 The what are you going to do about it apparently is roughly the same on the left and the right.
00:14:37.260 Right?
00:14:37.960 Because Biden did not take the extreme Green New Deal stuff like getting rid of airplanes.
00:14:42.940 He just made some aggressive goals that are, you know, so many years in the future that you don't even care about the deadline.
00:14:50.460 It doesn't even mean anything so far in the future.
00:14:53.260 And it's just not that different the way it feels from what the Republicans are already doing.
00:14:59.800 Now, sure, there might be some more investment in green stuff, but I don't know.
00:15:05.320 Has anything as much come out of it yet?
00:15:07.700 But I'm not sure that the citizens will see much of a difference anymore.
00:15:12.800 But here's the other part.
00:15:14.140 So that's the what do you do about it part.
00:15:16.720 The other part is the how bad is it, which, you know, drives the what do you do about it.
00:15:21.140 And that's where I think these two books that I've talked about this week, you know, Bjorn Lomborg's book, and here's the important part.
00:15:31.240 And this is the same with Michael Schellenberger's book, Apocalypse Never, which I talked about earlier.
00:15:38.540 Both books are in the same, let's say, family of criticism, which is, yes, humans are warming the earth.
00:15:47.600 So both of them start with that assumption.
00:15:51.480 This is a big deal.
00:15:52.920 They start with the assumption that, yeah, it's true, humans are warming the earth.
00:15:56.300 But then they make a far stronger argument, both Bjorn Lomborg and Michael Schellenberger, both of them with new books.
00:16:05.360 Both of them will make a big impact.
00:16:07.780 And it's just eviscerating the argument that there's a problem as big as they say.
00:16:14.740 They've just eviscerated it.
00:16:15.980 And as long as these two books are out there and people like you are willing to tell people, hey, check out these books, you're really completely eliminating the how big a problem is it part of the equation.
00:16:29.720 At the same time, you're saying, it's not that big of a problem if we do everything right.
00:16:35.020 And by the way, we're doing everything right, because we kind of are, which is pursuing every form of energy fairly aggressively is exactly what you should do, every form of cleaner energy.
00:16:48.120 So I would say that climate change just went from the biggest problem in the world to, oh, that looks like that's heading in the right direction.
00:17:01.220 So a lot of the energy is just going to come right out of it, I think.
00:17:04.860 Education is continuing to evolve, and I'm loving the conversations where people are really starting to, let's say, they're picking it apart to redesign it.
00:17:20.980 A lot of us are doing that in our minds, but there are no doubt lots of people working very hard to figure out which part of the education is the important part, which is really an interesting process, isn't it?
00:17:34.960 If you think that the education system just was designed hundreds of years ago and just evolved a little bit, it's still basically reading and writing and sitting in the classroom and listening to a teacher.
00:17:47.640 And the fact that we're picking that apart now and saying, all right, throw away all the assumptions.
00:17:53.440 Maybe it doesn't need to be a teacher.
00:17:55.540 Maybe they don't need to be in the same place.
00:17:57.980 What about these classes?
00:17:59.360 Do you need a college education?
00:18:00.680 Ivanka says companies will train you to do this specific job.
00:18:06.080 So having everything in question about maybe the most important thing that society does, which is educate, because everything good follows from that, right?
00:18:17.460 Once you get your people up to speed, good people create good outcomes.
00:18:22.320 So the fact that our most basic and important, and I would say our alpha system, can I call it that, or the apex system, the system that makes all the other systems work, education, is now going to really probably have a complete overhaul, I think.
00:18:44.040 Here's my suggestion for how to improve it.
00:18:48.200 I don't know if this is high school, or this is college, or maybe it doesn't matter, but here are the class categories that I would have.
00:18:57.680 This is sort of evolving over time, so you've heard a little of this.
00:19:00.940 One would be a class on, or maybe it's even a major, on life strategy.
00:19:06.240 Things that you would see in, such as in my book, how to fail at almost everything and still win big, where I teach things like systems are better than goals and skill stacks are good.
00:19:16.820 So knowing the user interface for life feels like that just should be a course or even a major.
00:19:25.040 That's so important, because if you don't get the basics of, well, wait, how does the world work?
00:19:30.020 If you do more of this and less of this, do you get a better result?
00:19:33.040 The answer is, if you know which button, yes, but you've got to know which button to push.
00:19:38.660 I would have a course on how to make decisions.
00:19:42.220 I do a little bit of that in my book, Loser Think.
00:19:45.660 Actually, that's mostly what the book is about, but that could be taken further.
00:19:50.680 If you look at most of the problems in the news today, from guns to green technology to racism to everything else,
00:20:02.420 they all seem to have a common problem.
00:20:06.180 What is the common problem with, you know, everything, guns, racism, green technology?
00:20:12.740 The common problem is that the differences in our opinions are differences in ability to analyze.
00:20:19.620 They're not actually political opinions.
00:20:21.740 These are fake disagreements.
00:20:23.660 If people knew how to analyze things properly, they just knew how to compare two things.
00:20:30.120 You know, can I compare this pen to this pencil?
00:20:34.380 Now, you think it's common sense.
00:20:36.280 Well, you know, you don't need to take a class to compare a pencil to a pen.
00:20:41.020 It's just obvious.
00:20:42.040 And that's where everybody goes wrong, because it's not.
00:20:47.160 It's just not.
00:20:48.280 You've got to take a lot of things into account to do a proper comparison, and you do need to learn it.
00:20:56.040 It's not something that's common sense.
00:20:58.980 I would have a course on persuasion, similar to my book, Win Bigly,
00:21:03.040 because if you can't persuade, you can't get much done.
00:21:05.900 You can't get a job.
00:21:06.900 You can't sell something.
00:21:07.880 You can't get a mate.
00:21:09.580 You know, persuasion is pretty important.
00:21:11.160 And then communication in general, which persuasion might be a subset of.
00:21:16.060 So that's what I would teach.
00:21:17.620 And then maybe entrepreneurship.
00:21:19.960 So a little bit about how would you start a business if you wanted to,
00:21:24.360 and what would you need to do if you started a business?
00:21:27.100 You know, what's a corporation?
00:21:28.720 What's a partnership?
00:21:30.200 Just some basics.
00:21:31.960 And these would be my, at least the beginning of a core platform.
00:21:37.280 Now, obviously, you need the reading and writing and science,
00:21:41.160 background, et cetera.
00:21:42.180 So you need some basics, but this is where I'd go.
00:21:45.260 Here's a little thing that you don't learn in school.
00:21:49.200 But look, just consider, if you will, I'm going to give you a little tip on one topic
00:21:56.180 that is not covered in school.
00:21:59.280 And yet it could be one of the most basic, important skills that a person can have.
00:22:04.180 And most of you are not good at it, but you could be with maybe half an hour of instruction.
00:22:12.280 And that is sleep.
00:22:14.500 Sleep should be considered a skill, not the default condition of your body when it's night
00:22:22.800 and you're tired.
00:22:23.500 We kind of think of sleep as just the thing that sort of happens at night and how hard
00:22:30.100 is it, you know?
00:22:31.140 There's no skill involved in sleeping, but there is.
00:22:35.480 Now, there may not have been skill involved in sleeping in the past because it was a simpler
00:22:40.240 world and things weren't complicated.
00:22:42.540 Maybe it was different.
00:22:43.880 I don't know.
00:22:44.680 Maybe people didn't drink as much coffee in the caveman days.
00:22:47.680 But in the modern days, sleep is so important to your performance and really your whole
00:22:54.020 quality of life that if you don't do it right, it makes a big difference and you should.
00:22:58.920 Now, I've given you sleep tips before, but here's a new one.
00:23:02.220 And this won't work for everyone.
00:23:04.680 This is a sleep tip that worked for me.
00:23:07.680 I would be interested if any of you want to try it out with the open-mindedness of, well,
00:23:13.380 if this doesn't work, I lost a week of trying something that didn't hurt me, right?
00:23:19.760 So I'd like you to just try it.
00:23:22.800 But some of you, this won't work.
00:23:26.900 You'll know if you're one of the people that it works for.
00:23:29.760 It goes like this.
00:23:30.740 If I go to bed and I can't sleep because I'm just too wound up, here's what I tell myself.
00:23:38.880 If you probably tell yourself, or the average person would say, darn it, I can't sleep.
00:23:46.500 I can't sleep.
00:23:48.020 What happens when you tell yourself over and over again you can't sleep?
00:23:52.120 Well, it doesn't help.
00:23:53.740 It doesn't help.
00:23:55.080 So that would be a bad mindset.
00:23:57.480 Let me tell you what I do.
00:23:58.980 When I can't sleep because my body is just wound up and I'm not ready to sleep,
00:24:04.740 I tell my body that I didn't work hard enough that day.
00:24:08.880 Now, your immediate reaction should be, why does that work?
00:24:14.740 You need a little more explanation, right?
00:24:17.080 It goes like this.
00:24:18.680 It helps me not a bit that night.
00:24:21.380 So that night, I'm just going to struggle to fall asleep.
00:24:25.600 So that tip doesn't help me one bit the day that I say it to myself.
00:24:30.080 I didn't work hard enough.
00:24:31.400 But the next day, it's like 7 o'clock at night, and I'll say to myself, ah, I have not exercised today.
00:24:40.120 I got busy.
00:24:41.360 I wanted to, but I didn't.
00:24:43.160 So now you say, all right, I would never exercise at 7 o'clock at night,
00:24:46.420 but I'm not going to be laying in bed again tonight and tell myself I didn't work hard enough.
00:24:52.580 So workout clothes on, hit the road, walk, run, ride your bike, lift some weights, go to the gym.
00:25:01.160 Back when people had gyms and they could go to them and they didn't die from going to the gym.
00:25:05.060 So that mindset, if you start programming it into yourself, will cause your day to be more productive
00:25:13.340 because instead of saying, what's the easiest way I can get through things,
00:25:17.660 you'll start managing your energy in a way that by the time you hit the bed at whatever your bedtime is,
00:25:24.080 10 o'clock, you're only going to want to sleep.
00:25:28.180 I push myself to the point where I know I will sleep well.
00:25:32.880 That's one of the ways I manage energy.
00:25:35.060 I've said before, and a lot of people have found this very useful,
00:25:38.560 that you should not manage your time, you should manage your energy.
00:25:43.900 Now, of course, you have to manage your time to show up to appointments,
00:25:47.400 but think in terms of managing your energy to create the best energy for the task
00:25:54.320 and then to make sure that you've used your energy up by the end of the day when it's time to go to bed
00:26:00.160 and that you haven't used it up at noon because it's going to be a tough day.
00:26:03.980 You use it all up early, but you've made sure that you did a physical work and mental work
00:26:12.180 that will get you in the sleeping point of view.
00:26:16.300 So that's the advice.
00:26:17.700 Sleep is a skill, and that skill starts when you wake up.
00:26:22.260 So your skill of sleeping at night starts when you wake up and you manage your energy in your day
00:26:30.140 to get yourself in the right condition to sleep.
00:26:33.140 It's an all-day process.
00:26:35.900 So if anybody tries that, let me know if it works for you.
00:26:38.440 I think it's the kind of framing that will appeal to some kind of mindsets that are already in place.
00:26:47.680 It won't work for everybody.
00:26:49.880 All right.
00:26:52.540 Tony Schwartz, who's some kind of a political commentator, I think he's on MSNBC,
00:26:58.260 he said this in a tweet.
00:26:59.760 It might sound like a familiar-sounding tweet.
00:27:03.420 Who has ever said something vaguely similar to this before?
00:27:08.740 See if it rings any bells.
00:27:12.320 He said in a tweet, Tony Schwartz did,
00:27:14.880 If somehow, someway, Trump is re-elected,
00:27:18.400 I won't consider it safe to continue to live in the United States.
00:27:22.740 That will be true, I believe, for many of those who have publicly opposed Trump.
00:27:29.240 Does that sound familiar?
00:27:32.660 It's kind of what I said if Biden won the election.
00:27:36.800 Now, let's compare the two assertions.
00:27:41.220 So I've said that Trump supporters would be unsafe in a world in which Biden became president
00:27:50.400 and, let's say, the left became emboldened.
00:27:54.120 And Tony Schwartz is making the exact same claim,
00:27:57.760 except saying that it would be unsafe to be a vocal Democrat in a world where Trump is re-elected.
00:28:05.040 Which of those claims seems more true?
00:28:07.920 Would it be more dangerous to be on the left or more dangerous on the right
00:28:11.000 if you're not the one whose preferred candidate is in power?
00:28:16.060 Well, how could we figure out which of those seems more reasonable?
00:28:21.300 Is there any kind of test you could do before the election
00:28:25.980 to see what the mood is in the country?
00:28:30.420 Well, I would suggest a test.
00:28:33.680 How about Tony Schwartz puts on a MAGA hat and goes to a public place?
00:28:42.200 And then I'll do the opposite.
00:28:45.300 I'll wear a Biden for president hat and I will visit the same public place or any other place.
00:28:53.300 In fact, I'll go further.
00:28:54.700 I will put on a Joe Biden hat and I will attend a Trump rally in a Joe Biden for president hat.
00:29:04.200 And I will be completely safe.
00:29:11.600 Let's just try it.
00:29:12.940 Let's make it more fun.
00:29:15.140 Let's say that Tony Schwartz has to wear a Make America Great Again hat
00:29:19.860 to a Biden event, if there ever is one that's not un-televised, that's not just digital.
00:29:28.860 And so he'll take a MAGA hat to a Democrat event
00:29:32.140 and I'll wear a Joe Biden hat to a MAGA-Trump event.
00:29:36.700 And we'll just do an experiment and see who gets the shit beat out of them.
00:29:42.220 So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I would get some mocking
00:29:48.040 and I would get some looks from going to a Trump rally.
00:29:55.520 But I'll also bet you that the people who are mocking
00:30:00.040 and maybe looking at me at the Trump, wait for it, are smiling.
00:30:06.020 If you went to a Trump rally wearing a Biden hat,
00:30:11.800 the first thing people would do when they saw you is they would smile
00:30:14.720 because they would think it was funny.
00:30:17.180 They would think it was funny.
00:30:19.940 And they might say, hey, what are you doing here?
00:30:22.220 You're in the wrong rally and give me a hard time.
00:30:24.600 Would I ever feel physically threatened at a Trump rally?
00:30:29.840 Not even a little bit.
00:30:32.020 Wearing a Biden hat.
00:30:33.560 Not even a little bit.
00:30:34.520 It wouldn't feel the slightest bit physically dangerous.
00:30:38.920 But, of course, they'd give me a hard time.
00:30:40.940 But I guarantee they would be smiling when they did it.
00:30:45.040 Do you think it would work the same way the other way?
00:30:47.880 I don't think so.
00:30:49.660 All right.
00:30:54.120 Let's see.
00:30:55.840 Have you watched an interview on live video with Trump's niece, Mary Trump,
00:31:01.560 who has got a book that is critical of her uncle, Donald Trump?
00:31:10.240 How many of you have seen her on video?
00:31:12.740 I don't want to be unkind.
00:31:18.860 I'm just going to say this.
00:31:22.580 You should see her.
00:31:24.360 I think she talked to George Stephanopoulos, so there's some clips.
00:31:27.660 I'm just going to say this.
00:31:31.420 You should spend 10 seconds looking at a clip of her talking.
00:31:36.980 And, again, I won't be unkind.
00:31:39.720 I'm just suggesting it's worth 10 seconds of your time.
00:31:43.820 And I'm not even going to give you my opinion of her book
00:31:48.500 because in 10 seconds of listening to her talk,
00:31:52.500 you will have the same opinion I do.
00:31:56.120 So I don't need to talk you into anything.
00:31:58.500 Just spend 10 seconds.
00:32:01.060 See if you can get the vibe of what's going on here.
00:32:04.540 See if you can just get a feel for the person.
00:32:08.000 And then you're going to have the same opinion I do,
00:32:11.180 and I'm not even going to state it.
00:32:13.820 Brad Parscale apparently has been replaced
00:32:18.000 as the head of the campaign for Trump.
00:32:20.420 We don't know what is behind that,
00:32:22.340 but if you believe rumors on Twitter,
00:32:26.580 there might be some personal relationship situation going on there.
00:32:32.360 Not between Trump and Parscale,
00:32:35.160 but there might be something personal going on.
00:32:39.780 And one wonders how that works.
00:32:42.940 I especially wonder when there is this suggestion,
00:32:47.400 and I don't know who put this idea into the public's mind.
00:32:51.740 Can somebody tell me where did this idea come from?
00:32:55.160 Like, why are people even thinking this?
00:32:57.440 There's some kind of a widespread thought
00:32:59.920 that there are these secret Trump supporters
00:33:02.800 that are lying to pollsters.
00:33:05.260 Where does the public get ideas like this?
00:33:08.980 It's crazy.
00:33:10.440 Oh, wait.
00:33:11.560 I might have been part of that.
00:33:13.360 And this is how CNN writes a headline for a story
00:33:21.420 about the belief by voters
00:33:26.000 that there are shy Trump supporters.
00:33:29.300 It's called,
00:33:29.860 2020's Latest Bogeyman, Secret Trump's Voters.
00:33:34.900 2020's Latest Bogeyman?
00:33:37.540 So I guess that means that if you're a Democrat,
00:33:41.660 the Republicans are trying to scare you
00:33:44.800 by telling you that there's this boogeyman
00:33:47.180 in the form of these hidden Trump voters
00:33:51.220 that are going to get you.
00:33:52.500 They're going to get you.
00:33:53.880 They're hiding.
00:33:54.700 And there was a Monmouth poll,
00:33:58.440 maybe you've heard of it,
00:33:59.720 in which they gave Joe Biden
00:34:01.440 a 13-point lead in Pennsylvania.
00:34:04.320 So you say, wow,
00:34:05.920 he's really doing great in these competitive states.
00:34:09.600 But then they also asked Pennsylvanians
00:34:12.680 whether they thought
00:34:14.900 there was a secret Trump voter out there,
00:34:17.120 you know, a lot of them.
00:34:18.640 And 57% believe there are hidden Trump voters.
00:34:23.520 Fifty-seven percent of Pennsylvanians
00:34:27.000 think their neighbors are lying to pollsters.
00:34:33.400 Fifty-seven percent.
00:34:37.000 But then CNN,
00:34:38.460 after giving it a headline
00:34:40.060 calling it a boogeyman,
00:34:41.820 which would suggest it's not real,
00:34:44.220 further down in the story on their website,
00:34:46.860 they say,
00:34:47.680 the idea of, quote,
00:34:48.900 secret voters is not entirely far-fetched.
00:34:52.000 In the aftermath of Trump's 2016 win,
00:34:55.880 one study suggested,
00:34:57.300 quote,
00:34:57.880 the people who kept their vote a secret
00:34:59.820 overwhelmingly voted for Trump.
00:35:03.680 Did you need to see a survey
00:35:05.560 to tell you
00:35:06.280 that the people who wouldn't tell you
00:35:08.400 who they were voting for
00:35:09.480 voted for Trump?
00:35:12.520 Look at all the undecided voters.
00:35:16.500 How many undecideds are there?
00:35:18.240 Or let's say independents.
00:35:20.240 Because independents are really fake undecideds.
00:35:22.760 They're really decided.
00:35:23.720 They just pretend they're not.
00:35:29.520 Somebody says 43% of Pennsylvania voters
00:35:32.220 are poorly informed.
00:35:33.940 That sounds about right.
00:35:35.860 Anyway,
00:35:36.640 we'll see how big that boogeyman is.
00:35:39.460 I can't get past this.
00:35:45.240 See if I'm on the wrong page with this.
00:35:47.340 The reason that I think
00:35:48.760 the hidden Trump vote
00:35:50.820 is bigger than it was in 2016,
00:35:53.960 and potentially really, really big,
00:35:56.660 two reasons.
00:35:57.540 One,
00:35:58.440 it's more and more obvious
00:35:59.620 that it could be physically dangerous
00:36:01.340 and economically dangerous
00:36:03.180 to admit you're a Trump supporter.
00:36:05.240 So the first thing is
00:36:06.840 that the danger has gone up.
00:36:09.700 Would you agree?
00:36:10.700 The danger has increased
00:36:12.260 for admitting you're a Trump supporter.
00:36:14.680 So if nothing had changed but that,
00:36:17.200 there should be more
00:36:18.400 hidden Trump supporters this year
00:36:20.240 than 2016.
00:36:21.340 But that's not the only thing that happened.
00:36:24.320 Another thing that needs to happen
00:36:26.020 for persuasion
00:36:27.160 is to think about it.
00:36:30.800 You have to actually think of it.
00:36:32.460 So if nobody had ever suggested,
00:36:36.940 hey, maybe you could just lie
00:36:38.380 to the pollster.
00:36:39.760 If nobody had ever suggested that,
00:36:42.120 then people would have to think
00:36:43.320 of it themselves.
00:36:44.740 Some of them would.
00:36:46.320 Some of them would just say,
00:36:47.400 I'm not comfortable with this.
00:36:48.420 And they would just naturally
00:36:49.440 lie to the pollsters.
00:36:51.520 But what happens when you suggest it?
00:36:54.640 What happens when you put it out there
00:36:56.420 as a national story?
00:36:58.240 You know, last time
00:36:59.360 there were a lot of people hiding
00:37:00.660 and how'd that turn out
00:37:01.840 for the people who were hiding?
00:37:03.940 How did it turn out
00:37:05.560 for the people who were hiding,
00:37:08.760 you know, the secret Trump supporters
00:37:10.220 in 2016?
00:37:12.060 The way it turned out
00:37:13.420 was better than anything
00:37:14.980 that they've ever seen
00:37:16.140 in their lives politically.
00:37:18.320 The unexpected win of Trump
00:37:21.320 and the night that you learned it
00:37:23.120 and the way that you felt
00:37:24.240 if you were a Trump supporter,
00:37:25.920 and especially if you were
00:37:27.460 a hidden Trump supporter,
00:37:29.660 was something that I would describe
00:37:31.360 as really, really good.
00:37:34.460 You would feel really, really good.
00:37:36.680 Like your whole body would feel good.
00:37:38.840 You would be exploding with,
00:37:40.520 you know, dopamine
00:37:42.060 and serotonin
00:37:43.840 and whatever else
00:37:44.680 makes you feel good.
00:37:46.060 Those people got a physical reward
00:37:49.440 that lasted for months.
00:37:51.440 You know, speaking for myself,
00:37:54.120 from the day of that
00:37:55.240 surprise Trump victory,
00:37:57.420 and I had more skit in the game
00:37:59.760 because I had been publicly
00:38:00.900 predicting it for so long,
00:38:02.620 but the feeling that you got
00:38:04.580 with that surprise victory,
00:38:06.400 it lasted months.
00:38:08.680 Now,
00:38:09.960 all of the people who lied
00:38:11.960 in 2015 and 2016,
00:38:14.600 do you think they're lying again?
00:38:16.660 Of course.
00:38:17.980 Of course.
00:38:18.520 Why wouldn't they?
00:38:19.380 Because their reasons to lie
00:38:21.160 are better than ever.
00:38:23.120 And it worked out.
00:38:24.500 And if the prank works again,
00:38:27.300 because the first time
00:38:28.300 I think it was just people hiding.
00:38:30.300 But this time
00:38:30.980 there's another motivation.
00:38:33.300 The prank.
00:38:34.960 Right?
00:38:35.600 The prank
00:38:36.280 is really attractive.
00:38:38.900 And the prank
00:38:40.060 is the surprise.
00:38:42.380 Because
00:38:42.860 as much fun as you had
00:38:44.720 when it looked like
00:38:45.820 Hillary Clinton
00:38:46.560 had a 90% chance
00:38:48.280 of winning
00:38:48.680 toward the end.
00:38:49.860 And oops,
00:38:50.760 there you go.
00:38:51.940 I guess 90%
00:38:52.900 wasn't good enough.
00:38:54.600 We're heading toward a place
00:38:55.940 where the polls
00:38:56.600 are so wide
00:38:57.560 that on election day
00:38:59.300 it might be
00:38:59.980 a 99.99%
00:39:02.160 predicted result
00:39:04.920 that Biden will win.
00:39:06.760 How will Democrats feel
00:39:08.760 if there's a 99.99%
00:39:12.380 prediction
00:39:13.540 from the experts
00:39:14.700 that Biden will win
00:39:16.700 and Trump wins again?
00:39:19.960 Again.
00:39:21.400 How are they
00:39:24.260 going to take it,
00:39:25.980 the Democrats?
00:39:27.200 Well,
00:39:28.220 everybody remembers
00:39:29.360 the screaming voters,
00:39:31.160 the Democrats who lost.
00:39:32.380 You know,
00:39:32.580 there's this famous
00:39:33.520 iconic picture
00:39:34.420 of the woman
00:39:35.540 going,
00:39:36.000 ah,
00:39:36.620 and being upset.
00:39:38.960 you can't tell me
00:39:41.040 if you're a Trump supporter
00:39:42.120 you haven't looked
00:39:42.880 at that picture
00:39:43.540 a hundred times
00:39:44.340 since 2016
00:39:45.320 and laughed
00:39:45.960 every time.
00:39:47.660 Every time.
00:39:49.280 So,
00:39:50.160 the situation
00:39:51.600 is sort of
00:39:52.860 picture perfect
00:39:53.740 for the biggest
00:39:55.380 prank
00:39:56.060 ever played
00:39:57.760 in political history.
00:39:59.620 If this is
00:40:00.660 what it looks like,
00:40:02.220 and it definitely
00:40:02.880 looks like it
00:40:03.820 to me,
00:40:04.200 I think it's hard
00:40:05.760 to say
00:40:06.180 that's definitely
00:40:06.900 what it is.
00:40:07.500 You know,
00:40:07.780 we don't live
00:40:08.560 in a world
00:40:08.920 of certainty.
00:40:10.180 But if I were
00:40:11.080 going to have
00:40:11.480 to put money
00:40:12.100 on it,
00:40:13.040 I would say
00:40:13.620 that the
00:40:14.120 hidden Trump
00:40:15.100 supporter
00:40:15.520 is far and away
00:40:17.460 bigger this time
00:40:18.380 than it was
00:40:19.260 last time
00:40:20.320 and maybe bigger
00:40:21.380 than any election
00:40:22.260 ever
00:40:22.640 because
00:40:23.760 there's a genuine
00:40:25.140 fear.
00:40:26.040 It's in people's
00:40:27.240 minds.
00:40:27.720 It's a bigger fear
00:40:28.380 than it was before
00:40:29.340 and the prank,
00:40:31.480 the prank of it,
00:40:33.060 just the surprise
00:40:34.300 that could be
00:40:34.960 coming,
00:40:36.200 just could be
00:40:37.020 the funniest
00:40:37.460 thing you've
00:40:37.960 ever experienced
00:40:38.640 in your whole
00:40:39.120 freaking life,
00:40:40.320 honestly.
00:40:41.240 And that's
00:40:41.880 so attractive.
00:40:43.880 We'll see.
00:40:46.360 So here's how
00:40:47.800 CNN handled
00:40:49.980 an interview
00:40:50.840 that
00:40:51.480 President Trump
00:40:53.720 did in which
00:40:54.400 he was asked
00:40:55.660 about,
00:40:56.200 was it
00:40:56.540 Catherine Herridge
00:40:59.020 or somebody
00:40:59.420 asked him this
00:41:00.020 question?
00:41:01.940 So here's
00:41:02.920 the headline
00:41:03.300 from CNN,
00:41:04.600 Trump gets
00:41:05.260 upset when
00:41:06.240 asked about
00:41:06.940 police killing
00:41:07.740 black Americans.
00:41:09.640 What would you
00:41:10.740 think the story
00:41:11.440 is going to
00:41:11.860 say if
00:41:13.600 the headline
00:41:14.240 is Trump
00:41:14.820 gets upset
00:41:15.580 when asked
00:41:16.160 about police
00:41:16.840 killing black
00:41:17.560 Americans?
00:41:18.440 Doesn't the headline
00:41:19.340 suggest that
00:41:21.220 the President
00:41:21.760 doesn't care
00:41:22.740 about police
00:41:24.040 killing black
00:41:24.720 Americans?
00:41:25.880 Doesn't it feel
00:41:26.680 like they're,
00:41:27.520 they don't say
00:41:28.320 that,
00:41:29.500 but the way
00:41:30.020 it's phrased
00:41:30.580 is sort
00:41:31.100 of suggesting
00:41:31.980 that they
00:41:33.140 can tell
00:41:33.860 his attitude
00:41:34.520 and that
00:41:36.020 he doesn't
00:41:37.000 really care
00:41:37.620 about black
00:41:38.260 people being
00:41:38.820 killed by
00:41:39.320 police.
00:41:40.420 But is that
00:41:40.860 what happened?
00:41:42.060 Well,
00:41:42.560 let's talk
00:41:43.060 about what
00:41:43.400 actually happened.
00:41:44.780 So during
00:41:45.220 an interview,
00:41:45.800 this is from
00:41:46.380 CNN,
00:41:47.380 with CBS News,
00:41:48.640 President Donald
00:41:49.700 Trump responded
00:41:50.400 to a question
00:41:50.940 about why black
00:41:51.880 Americans are
00:41:52.740 still dying at
00:41:53.380 the hands of
00:41:53.780 law enforcement
00:41:54.260 by saying,
00:41:55.420 quote,
00:41:55.660 more white
00:41:56.720 people are
00:41:57.260 killed by
00:41:57.720 police and
00:41:58.840 calling the
00:41:59.280 question terrible.
00:42:00.860 Now,
00:42:01.020 of course,
00:42:01.340 they took
00:42:01.720 him out of
00:42:02.100 context so
00:42:03.800 that you
00:42:04.640 wouldn't know
00:42:05.040 exactly why
00:42:05.760 he was saying
00:42:06.200 the question
00:42:06.640 was terrible.
00:42:07.300 It's a little
00:42:07.800 unclear.
00:42:08.800 So they've
00:42:09.640 mucked up
00:42:10.340 their description
00:42:12.760 so you don't
00:42:13.360 know what he
00:42:13.900 was really
00:42:14.320 getting at.
00:42:15.940 Right?
00:42:16.300 They just took
00:42:16.820 the meaning
00:42:17.220 out of it and
00:42:17.780 put their own
00:42:18.240 meaning on it.
00:42:19.220 Now,
00:42:19.520 if you saw
00:42:19.900 live,
00:42:20.500 what he was
00:42:20.900 getting at is
00:42:22.220 that the terrible
00:42:22.920 part is that
00:42:24.600 you would focus
00:42:25.620 on only the
00:42:26.380 deaths of one
00:42:27.100 group of
00:42:27.520 people when
00:42:28.640 the larger
00:42:29.180 group of
00:42:29.700 people were
00:42:30.300 white.
00:42:31.660 Is that an
00:42:32.480 unfair thing
00:42:33.320 for a president
00:42:33.980 to say?
00:42:35.020 Maybe we
00:42:35.520 should focus
00:42:36.060 on the
00:42:36.540 largest group
00:42:37.320 of people
00:42:37.720 who were
00:42:37.900 getting killed,
00:42:39.120 not the
00:42:39.760 smaller group.
00:42:40.740 Or maybe we
00:42:41.340 should at least
00:42:41.760 include the
00:42:42.360 larger group
00:42:42.860 in the
00:42:43.140 conversation.
00:42:43.800 He didn't
00:42:44.040 say you
00:42:44.360 should focus
00:42:44.880 on the
00:42:45.200 larger group.
00:42:46.200 He said it
00:42:46.720 should be in
00:42:47.060 the conversation,
00:42:47.920 which is
00:42:48.240 completely fair.
00:42:50.960 So how
00:42:51.920 did Caitlin,
00:42:53.740 whatever,
00:42:54.680 on CNN,
00:42:55.620 report on
00:42:56.240 that?
00:42:56.940 She summed
00:42:57.620 up the
00:42:57.960 piece,
00:42:58.480 because it
00:42:58.840 was part
00:42:59.140 of a video
00:42:59.860 package on
00:43:00.540 Jake Tapper's
00:43:01.380 show,
00:43:02.300 and she
00:43:03.280 sums it up
00:43:03.780 by saying
00:43:04.300 that police
00:43:07.320 kill black
00:43:08.400 Americans at
00:43:09.320 a rate of
00:43:09.820 3.5 times
00:43:11.200 more than
00:43:12.240 whites.
00:43:13.720 Is that
00:43:14.440 true?
00:43:16.040 No.
00:43:16.980 It's fake
00:43:17.500 news.
00:43:18.420 Because she
00:43:19.200 does the
00:43:19.720 same data
00:43:20.400 analysis
00:43:21.000 mistake that
00:43:22.580 caused all
00:43:23.140 the protests.
00:43:24.320 It's the
00:43:24.620 same mistake.
00:43:25.940 Do you
00:43:26.140 think it's
00:43:26.500 really a
00:43:26.980 mistake?
00:43:28.020 Or do
00:43:28.300 you think
00:43:28.700 it's an
00:43:29.820 intentional
00:43:30.440 lie?
00:43:32.080 Well,
00:43:33.120 what she
00:43:33.560 says is
00:43:34.200 technically
00:43:34.840 correct,
00:43:36.340 but it's
00:43:36.900 used to
00:43:37.460 mislead,
00:43:38.260 obviously.
00:43:39.340 And I'll
00:43:39.660 tell you
00:43:39.940 why.
00:43:40.900 So what
00:43:41.580 she's doing
00:43:42.100 is saying
00:43:42.440 that if
00:43:42.800 you just
00:43:43.100 look at
00:43:43.480 the
00:43:43.800 percentage
00:43:44.200 of the
00:43:44.480 population,
00:43:45.720 black
00:43:46.020 citizens are
00:43:46.920 killed at
00:43:47.320 3.5 times
00:43:48.440 more higher
00:43:50.260 rate than
00:43:51.040 whites.
00:43:51.540 That's
00:43:52.200 true.
00:43:53.400 It's also
00:43:53.880 the wrong
00:43:54.420 thing to
00:43:54.900 measure because
00:43:56.200 police are
00:43:57.500 not stopping
00:43:58.100 people for
00:43:58.700 no reason
00:43:59.200 and killing
00:43:59.620 them.
00:44:00.560 The only
00:44:01.500 time anybody
00:44:01.980 gets killed
00:44:02.540 is if they
00:44:03.020 have a
00:44:03.300 police
00:44:03.580 encounter.
00:44:04.860 So the
00:44:05.200 only thing
00:44:05.520 you should
00:44:05.840 count is
00:44:07.160 the number
00:44:07.580 of police
00:44:08.100 encounters.
00:44:08.980 If you
00:44:09.260 do that,
00:44:09.720 it turns
00:44:09.960 out white
00:44:10.480 and black
00:44:10.800 deaths are
00:44:11.300 comparable
00:44:11.900 as a
00:44:12.840 percentage.
00:44:13.820 So she's
00:44:14.420 simply making
00:44:15.140 a data
00:44:15.720 analysis
00:44:16.500 error that
00:44:18.380 you have to
00:44:18.920 ask yourself,
00:44:19.640 is she
00:44:20.780 really so
00:44:21.420 dumb that
00:44:22.580 she doesn't
00:44:23.120 know she's
00:44:23.720 doing this?
00:44:25.960 I don't
00:44:26.480 know.
00:44:27.300 Do you?
00:44:28.340 Is, I
00:44:29.420 forget Caitlin's
00:44:30.280 last name,
00:44:31.180 Caitlin
00:44:31.440 something,
00:44:34.120 the
00:44:34.360 correspondent,
00:44:35.860 the White
00:44:36.340 House
00:44:36.540 correspondent for
00:44:37.420 CNN?
00:44:38.980 Caitlin
00:44:39.340 Collins.
00:44:40.500 Caitlin
00:44:41.000 Collins.
00:44:42.040 I can't
00:44:42.940 tell if
00:44:43.380 she's actually
00:44:44.000 not good at
00:44:44.800 analyzing or
00:44:46.440 if she's
00:44:47.220 intentionally
00:44:47.780 ignoring the
00:44:48.900 useful number
00:44:49.940 in favor of
00:44:50.980 the one that
00:44:51.580 just causes
00:44:52.520 riots and
00:44:53.640 is not
00:44:54.080 useful.
00:44:55.280 Don't
00:44:55.480 know.
00:44:57.420 And so the
00:44:58.200 question I
00:44:58.600 ask for you
00:44:59.120 is this.
00:45:01.160 Yeah, we're
00:45:01.860 big on free
00:45:02.840 speech and
00:45:03.400 should be,
00:45:04.300 but doesn't
00:45:06.160 this get
00:45:06.580 really close
00:45:07.440 to shouting
00:45:08.620 fire in a
00:45:09.700 crowded movie
00:45:11.160 theater?
00:45:12.280 So you know
00:45:12.760 the old saying
00:45:14.580 that we have
00:45:15.240 freedom of
00:45:15.740 speech, but
00:45:16.320 you still can't
00:45:17.020 yell fire.
00:45:17.780 in a crowded
00:45:18.780 theater because
00:45:19.600 that kind of
00:45:20.320 speech would
00:45:21.460 certainly cause
00:45:22.380 people to be
00:45:23.020 hurt as they
00:45:24.180 try to get
00:45:24.680 out of the
00:45:25.040 theater and
00:45:25.700 there'd be
00:45:26.460 pandemonium.
00:45:28.080 So if we
00:45:29.260 take as a
00:45:30.420 standard that
00:45:31.840 you have
00:45:32.260 complete freedom
00:45:33.080 of speech
00:45:33.560 unless it's
00:45:34.720 going to
00:45:35.020 immediately cause
00:45:36.080 people to
00:45:36.520 hurt themselves,
00:45:38.020 that's sort of
00:45:38.660 where we draw
00:45:39.380 the line.
00:45:39.800 No, no, no,
00:45:40.240 you can't do
00:45:41.060 something that
00:45:41.540 people are
00:45:41.920 going to get
00:45:42.260 killed.
00:45:43.860 That's not the
00:45:44.980 free speech
00:45:45.480 we're talking
00:45:45.900 about.
00:45:46.220 But here
00:45:47.540 CNN is
00:45:48.980 spreading a
00:45:49.940 obviously fake
00:45:51.200 or misleading
00:45:52.960 data that is
00:45:54.560 driving protests,
00:45:56.280 looting, and
00:45:57.020 deaths all over
00:45:57.820 the country.
00:45:59.140 Why is it
00:45:59.840 legal?
00:46:00.760 Think about it.
00:46:01.720 Why is it
00:46:02.160 legal for
00:46:04.160 CNN to
00:46:05.160 report data
00:46:05.880 that clearly
00:46:06.720 drives protests
00:46:08.340 and violence all
00:46:09.100 over the country
00:46:09.700 while we're
00:46:10.220 having it?
00:46:10.700 It's not even
00:46:11.500 a hypothetical
00:46:12.180 theoretical question.
00:46:14.120 It's happening
00:46:14.540 right now.
00:46:15.960 And they put
00:46:16.480 this on the
00:46:17.000 air as a
00:46:17.860 respectable
00:46:18.400 allegedly news
00:46:20.160 organization.
00:46:21.920 It is really
00:46:22.920 close to
00:46:24.820 yelling fire in
00:46:25.660 a crowded
00:46:25.980 theater, isn't
00:46:26.580 it?
00:46:27.300 Because imagine
00:46:28.180 if they had
00:46:28.740 said this.
00:46:29.420 I know it's
00:46:29.800 hard to
00:46:30.080 imagine, but
00:46:31.460 imagine if
00:46:32.000 they had said
00:46:32.460 this.
00:46:33.740 If you look
00:46:34.460 at the number
00:46:34.920 of police
00:46:35.360 stops, it's
00:46:36.120 fairly comparable.
00:46:37.080 And we
00:46:38.640 haven't asked
00:46:39.180 anybody in
00:46:39.660 Black Lives
00:46:40.160 Matter to
00:46:40.640 respond to
00:46:41.180 that, but
00:46:42.340 we'd like to
00:46:43.060 get an
00:46:43.420 interview on
00:46:43.960 that.
00:46:46.400 How different
00:46:47.480 would the
00:46:48.660 world be if
00:46:49.680 CNN were
00:46:50.540 reporting the
00:46:51.360 data analyzed
00:46:53.700 correctly?
00:46:56.780 Pretty
00:46:57.340 different.
00:46:58.120 Yeah, it
00:46:58.520 seems that
00:46:58.980 CNN has
00:47:00.300 blood on
00:47:00.820 their hands.
00:47:02.080 The trouble
00:47:02.840 is that you
00:47:03.520 could take
00:47:03.880 this argument
00:47:04.500 pretty far and
00:47:05.900 it would close
00:47:06.360 down the
00:47:06.900 news business
00:47:07.700 because it
00:47:08.880 would be easy
00:47:09.420 to say,
00:47:10.040 well, what
00:47:10.540 about Hannity
00:47:13.020 saying something
00:47:14.760 medical that
00:47:15.780 people believed?
00:47:17.740 To which I'd
00:47:18.320 say, good
00:47:20.680 point, right?
00:47:23.220 Yeah.
00:47:23.720 The trouble
00:47:24.400 is that if
00:47:25.180 you made it
00:47:25.760 actually illegal
00:47:26.720 to do that,
00:47:27.700 what CNN is
00:47:28.520 doing that is
00:47:29.200 clearly killing
00:47:29.900 people, you'd
00:47:31.060 have to extend
00:47:32.420 that to the
00:47:34.400 news saying
00:47:35.120 anything that
00:47:35.760 gets people
00:47:36.220 killed.
00:47:36.640 And unfortunately
00:47:37.360 it's so
00:47:37.980 common, both
00:47:39.460 on the left
00:47:40.000 and the
00:47:40.380 right, that
00:47:41.980 not because
00:47:43.380 they're necessarily
00:47:43.940 doing it
00:47:44.380 intentionally,
00:47:45.400 although I
00:47:45.980 think CNN
00:47:46.460 is doing this
00:47:47.160 intentionally.
00:47:47.920 That would
00:47:48.340 be my guess.
00:47:49.460 It's hard to
00:47:50.060 know, but it
00:47:51.100 feels intentional.
00:47:53.000 Because I'd
00:47:53.700 hate to think
00:47:54.120 they're this
00:47:54.460 dumb.
00:47:55.800 What do you
00:47:56.240 think?
00:47:57.340 Do you think
00:47:57.760 Caitlin Collins
00:47:58.600 actually doesn't
00:48:00.080 know that she
00:48:01.720 is analyzing
00:48:02.360 the wrong?
00:48:02.800 do you think
00:48:04.200 she doesn't
00:48:04.680 know?
00:48:05.080 In the
00:48:05.620 comments, tell
00:48:06.200 me your
00:48:06.460 opinion.
00:48:06.860 Because we
00:48:07.140 can't read
00:48:07.540 her mind,
00:48:08.080 and I'm
00:48:08.980 trying to
00:48:09.380 catch myself
00:48:10.180 from doing
00:48:11.160 the thing I
00:48:11.660 most criticize
00:48:12.720 in other
00:48:13.120 people, which
00:48:13.680 is, no,
00:48:14.020 you're not a
00:48:14.380 mind reader.
00:48:15.280 You don't
00:48:15.700 know what a
00:48:16.120 stranger is
00:48:16.740 thinking.
00:48:17.120 So I'm
00:48:17.980 going to pull
00:48:19.180 back my
00:48:21.680 statement that
00:48:22.500 it seems
00:48:23.100 obvious it's
00:48:24.060 intentional,
00:48:24.820 because I'm
00:48:25.460 not sure it
00:48:25.860 is obvious.
00:48:26.940 I don't know
00:48:27.720 that it is
00:48:28.180 obvious.
00:48:30.520 I'm looking at
00:48:31.600 your comments.
00:48:32.260 Yes, no,
00:48:33.140 no.
00:48:34.060 Of course
00:48:34.520 they know.
00:48:35.280 Yes, they
00:48:35.640 know.
00:48:36.460 Dumb.
00:48:40.220 Swalwell
00:48:40.700 secretly loves
00:48:41.740 Goya beans.
00:48:42.880 Okay, that's
00:48:43.300 kind of funny.
00:48:44.520 She doesn't
00:48:45.060 know.
00:48:45.380 She doesn't
00:48:45.800 know.
00:48:46.140 others saying
00:48:47.400 it's intentional,
00:48:48.380 clueless, 50-50.
00:48:49.640 She knows, she
00:48:50.160 knows.
00:48:50.500 I think they
00:48:50.900 know.
00:48:51.360 She's not
00:48:51.760 trained.
00:48:52.940 Yeah, so
00:48:54.020 she may not
00:48:55.220 have the type
00:48:56.340 of analytical
00:48:57.540 background
00:48:58.980 necessary, but
00:49:00.580 I wonder if
00:49:01.200 she's ever
00:49:01.620 even heard
00:49:02.160 the argument,
00:49:03.960 because I
00:49:04.300 even wonder
00:49:04.760 that, don't
00:49:05.240 you?
00:49:05.940 It makes
00:49:06.540 sense that
00:49:07.120 people who
00:49:07.620 only watch
00:49:08.260 CNN don't
00:49:08.980 see the
00:49:09.360 arguments on
00:49:10.000 Fox, but
00:49:11.360 do the
00:49:11.880 commentators
00:49:12.620 and the
00:49:13.340 professionals who
00:49:14.200 actually work
00:49:14.860 there, do
00:49:15.940 they also
00:49:16.460 not see the
00:49:17.260 argument on
00:49:17.740 the other
00:49:18.000 side?
00:49:20.860 Somebody
00:49:21.340 says she
00:49:21.800 has a
00:49:22.140 boss.
00:49:23.140 That's
00:49:23.360 true.
00:49:24.280 Yeah,
00:49:24.480 Cailin
00:49:24.740 Collins has
00:49:25.240 a boss, and
00:49:26.760 CNN is
00:49:28.260 coordinated
00:49:29.260 enough that
00:49:30.820 if anybody
00:49:31.640 at CNN
00:49:32.200 knew it was
00:49:33.160 wrong, she
00:49:33.980 would hear
00:49:34.320 about it,
00:49:35.120 right?
00:49:36.140 If anybody
00:49:37.260 at CNN
00:49:38.060 knew that
00:49:38.960 number was
00:49:39.520 wrong, they'd
00:49:41.160 tell somebody
00:49:41.680 else and say,
00:49:42.200 hey, hey, I
00:49:43.280 heard you say
00:49:43.720 that on the
00:49:44.340 air, you
00:49:45.280 should correct
00:49:45.800 that.
00:49:47.500 So does
00:49:48.240 nobody at
00:49:48.920 CNN know
00:49:49.480 that's wrong?
00:49:51.500 Yeah, that
00:49:52.200 would be a
00:49:52.820 bigger reach,
00:49:53.460 wouldn't it?
00:49:54.280 All right, that
00:49:55.060 is what I
00:49:56.280 have to say
00:49:56.920 for today.
00:49:59.800 I would like
00:50:00.560 to give you
00:50:01.400 a little
00:50:01.940 encouragement.
00:50:06.360 Ask
00:50:06.800 yourself,
00:50:08.340 who have
00:50:08.780 been your
00:50:09.360 most reliable
00:50:10.460 public
00:50:11.440 figures.
00:50:12.840 One of the
00:50:13.580 things I
00:50:13.980 told you
00:50:14.420 early on
00:50:15.100 was, when
00:50:16.800 the pandemic
00:50:17.760 first started
00:50:18.540 closing things
00:50:19.420 down, one
00:50:20.640 of the things
00:50:20.960 I told you
00:50:21.540 is that
00:50:22.020 nobody in
00:50:22.580 the United
00:50:22.940 States would
00:50:23.720 starve.
00:50:25.480 Right?
00:50:26.160 I told you
00:50:26.720 that directly.
00:50:27.340 I said, no,
00:50:28.080 no risk.
00:50:29.460 Nobody's going
00:50:30.020 to starve in
00:50:30.620 this country.
00:50:31.760 Nobody did.
00:50:32.980 Now, it's
00:50:34.100 hard, but
00:50:37.120 everybody's
00:50:37.760 eaten.
00:50:37.940 I told you
00:50:39.700 that we
00:50:40.220 would probably
00:50:40.740 be able to
00:50:41.440 borrow, or
00:50:42.480 not borrow
00:50:43.320 necessarily, but
00:50:44.100 print money
00:50:45.380 massively, because
00:50:47.500 we're in this
00:50:48.020 unique situation
00:50:48.940 where demand
00:50:50.600 is so low
00:50:51.440 that inflation
00:50:52.480 can't happen,
00:50:53.320 and that's the
00:50:53.720 main reason you
00:50:54.320 don't want to
00:50:54.740 print money.
00:50:56.120 Sure enough,
00:50:57.320 we printed
00:50:58.700 gazillions of
00:50:59.900 dollars, and
00:51:01.740 nobody's
00:51:03.160 sounding the
00:51:04.600 warning about
00:51:05.060 inflation, because
00:51:06.420 I had accurately
00:51:07.560 deduced that
00:51:09.520 we could just
00:51:10.020 print money and
00:51:10.740 print our way
00:51:11.300 out of it, in
00:51:12.160 this weird, unique
00:51:13.180 situation.
00:51:14.120 That's exactly
00:51:14.920 what happened.
00:51:16.700 Who told you
00:51:17.740 way before we
00:51:19.660 started getting
00:51:20.220 serious about
00:51:21.000 China that
00:51:21.960 China was an
00:51:24.440 enemy, not a
00:51:25.140 trading partner?
00:51:26.560 I did.
00:51:27.780 I told you that
00:51:28.460 two years before
00:51:29.440 it became obvious
00:51:30.280 to basically the
00:51:31.460 entire United
00:51:32.100 States.
00:51:32.500 who told you
00:51:34.400 that when the
00:51:35.940 recovery started,
00:51:38.100 the economic
00:51:38.720 recovery, that
00:51:40.020 it would be
00:51:40.620 faster than the
00:51:42.640 experts predicted?
00:51:44.920 I did.
00:51:46.400 The president
00:51:47.220 did too, but I
00:51:48.760 told you, clearly
00:51:49.820 and often, when
00:51:51.120 the recovery
00:51:51.620 starts, it's
00:51:53.200 going to be
00:51:53.680 impressive in a
00:51:54.820 way you've never
00:51:55.360 seen before.
00:51:56.360 It'll be jaw
00:51:57.640 dropping, and it
00:51:59.260 is.
00:51:59.600 So, when
00:52:02.840 you were
00:52:03.160 following me
00:52:03.960 when I was
00:52:05.060 doing my
00:52:05.420 evening
00:52:05.860 periscopes, a
00:52:07.660 lot of what I
00:52:08.200 was doing is
00:52:08.720 trying to talk
00:52:11.780 you off the
00:52:12.300 ledge that
00:52:12.860 things aren't
00:52:13.340 as bad as
00:52:13.820 they look.
00:52:14.800 And the
00:52:15.260 reason I'm
00:52:15.660 pointing this
00:52:16.080 out is not
00:52:17.000 just to brag,
00:52:17.960 although bragging
00:52:18.540 is good.
00:52:19.700 I'm never
00:52:20.340 opposed to
00:52:21.340 bragging.
00:52:22.320 If you ever
00:52:23.000 hear me say
00:52:24.460 anything like
00:52:24.940 that, I
00:52:25.200 would be
00:52:25.400 lying.
00:52:26.400 I do think
00:52:27.400 that it is
00:52:28.200 functional and
00:52:29.080 useful.
00:52:29.600 for people
00:52:30.620 to, especially
00:52:31.480 in the public,
00:52:32.040 to tell you
00:52:32.840 what they got
00:52:33.260 right.
00:52:34.780 As I get
00:52:35.560 things wrong,
00:52:36.140 I'll tell you
00:52:36.480 that too.
00:52:37.540 I'll probably
00:52:37.920 spend less time
00:52:38.680 telling you what
00:52:39.220 I got wrong.
00:52:40.520 Why wouldn't
00:52:40.900 I?
00:52:42.720 But think
00:52:45.100 about that.
00:52:45.980 Now, the
00:52:46.400 other thing
00:52:46.880 that I said,
00:52:48.120 I didn't say
00:52:49.180 it often, but
00:52:50.140 those of you
00:52:51.200 who are
00:52:51.360 regulars will
00:52:52.120 back me up.
00:52:53.240 I also said
00:52:54.140 you better not
00:52:55.360 wait for
00:52:56.020 vaccinations.
00:52:58.460 You better
00:52:59.760 not wait
00:53:00.440 for medical
00:53:01.840 science because
00:53:03.260 I don't think
00:53:03.820 you're going
00:53:04.100 to have a
00:53:04.680 vaccination in
00:53:06.480 time to save
00:53:07.620 the economy,
00:53:08.260 et cetera, and
00:53:09.020 then we're just
00:53:09.420 going to have to
00:53:09.840 live with the
00:53:10.440 virus.
00:53:11.800 It looks like
00:53:12.480 it.
00:53:12.900 It looks like
00:53:13.640 the situation
00:53:14.300 is we're
00:53:14.900 simply going
00:53:15.460 to have to
00:53:15.920 adapt to
00:53:17.540 living with
00:53:18.000 the virus
00:53:18.520 until who
00:53:19.780 knows.
00:53:20.620 Maybe it's a
00:53:21.380 year and a
00:53:21.700 half from now
00:53:22.160 when we've
00:53:22.540 got something.
00:53:23.920 So, yeah,
00:53:25.820 the stock
00:53:26.200 market is at
00:53:26.780 an all-time
00:53:27.260 high.
00:53:29.720 And here's
00:53:30.760 the other
00:53:31.080 thing which I
00:53:31.800 predicted.
00:53:32.460 It'll take a
00:53:32.980 little bit
00:53:33.280 longer for
00:53:33.840 this to
00:53:34.360 unwind,
00:53:35.420 which is the
00:53:36.120 total shaking
00:53:36.920 of the box
00:53:37.640 of the economy
00:53:38.420 and the
00:53:38.920 rethinking
00:53:39.320 of everything
00:53:39.880 from education
00:53:40.800 to the food
00:53:41.760 supply to
00:53:42.600 really everything.
00:53:44.460 The rethinking
00:53:45.400 of all that
00:53:46.100 will actually be
00:53:46.880 an economic
00:53:47.560 stimulus because
00:53:49.360 it creates all
00:53:50.160 kinds of new
00:53:50.940 businesses to
00:53:51.780 wind up,
00:53:52.360 et cetera.
00:53:54.920 So I think
00:53:55.760 the economy
00:53:56.340 is going to
00:53:56.960 be a good
00:53:57.860 spot.
00:53:58.560 I think that
00:53:59.320 there really
00:54:01.800 isn't much
00:54:02.400 option except
00:54:03.220 to live with
00:54:04.100 a grotesque
00:54:06.120 amount of
00:54:06.960 coronavirus
00:54:07.860 deaths.
00:54:08.940 And we're
00:54:09.280 just going to
00:54:09.740 deal with it
00:54:10.380 because we're
00:54:11.160 at war.
00:54:12.040 We're at war
00:54:12.960 with the virus
00:54:13.720 and it's the
00:54:15.440 weirdest kind
00:54:16.020 of war because
00:54:16.620 the civilians
00:54:17.300 are all in.
00:54:18.600 And the most
00:54:19.800 vulnerable among
00:54:20.920 us are on
00:54:21.900 the front lines
00:54:22.620 in a sense
00:54:23.460 because they
00:54:24.260 have the most
00:54:24.900 vulnerability.
00:54:26.480 So somebody
00:54:27.840 says it's too
00:54:28.640 soon to tell
00:54:29.320 about inflation.
00:54:30.280 That is correct.
00:54:31.700 You always have
00:54:32.640 that risk of
00:54:33.320 future inflation.
00:54:34.760 But let me say
00:54:35.760 this as clearly
00:54:36.500 as possible.
00:54:37.600 If we get to
00:54:38.620 the point where
00:54:39.240 inflation is a
00:54:40.180 problem, we've
00:54:41.660 really done well.
00:54:44.080 Yeah, now
00:54:44.640 Moderna has a
00:54:46.260 vaccine that
00:54:48.200 they think will
00:54:49.100 work.
00:54:49.880 Looks promising.
00:54:50.960 Need a little
00:54:51.380 extra testing.
00:54:52.960 We'll see how
00:54:53.500 that goes.
00:54:54.980 Fingers crossed.
00:54:58.360 And the
00:55:01.540 election will be
00:55:02.420 the end.
00:55:02.980 I don't know
00:55:03.260 what that means.
00:55:04.460 Oh, and you
00:55:05.440 mean if a
00:55:06.100 Democrat gets
00:55:06.940 elected?
00:55:07.740 Yeah.
00:55:08.940 So let me
00:55:09.780 update the
00:55:10.420 slaughter meter.
00:55:11.660 The slaughter
00:55:12.140 meter is at
00:55:13.180 100%.
00:55:14.820 If nothing
00:55:16.860 changed between
00:55:17.920 now and
00:55:18.360 election, the
00:55:19.900 slaughter meter
00:55:20.400 says there's
00:55:21.000 100% chance of
00:55:22.480 Trump being
00:55:22.980 re-elected.
00:55:24.120 But of course
00:55:24.540 lots of things
00:55:25.320 will change.
00:55:26.460 So it's not a
00:55:27.000 prediction.
00:55:27.740 It's just a fun
00:55:28.580 little point in
00:55:30.080 time that says
00:55:30.900 unless something
00:55:31.620 changes, but it
00:55:33.440 will change.
00:55:34.580 The last time,
00:55:35.880 I mean I started
00:55:36.500 doing the
00:55:37.080 slaughter meter
00:55:37.860 always with the
00:55:39.480 caveat that until
00:55:41.180 something changes
00:55:42.040 and it will,
00:55:43.180 before the
00:55:43.700 coronavirus.
00:55:45.660 I mean really,
00:55:46.920 it was so obvious
00:55:48.380 that there would
00:55:48.860 be big things
00:55:49.640 between now and
00:55:51.360 November, but I
00:55:52.240 didn't think it
00:55:52.640 would be that
00:55:53.000 big.
00:55:56.620 Why should we
00:55:57.460 have to live
00:55:58.020 with the deaths?
00:55:58.860 Other countries
00:55:59.480 are managing it
00:56:00.280 much better.
00:56:01.860 Let me answer
00:56:02.740 it this way.
00:56:04.600 Those other
00:56:05.260 countries that
00:56:06.140 have gotten it
00:56:06.800 under control,
00:56:08.540 it's not going
00:56:09.180 to stay that
00:56:09.720 way.
00:56:10.660 There is no
00:56:11.400 scenario that
00:56:12.780 anybody can
00:56:13.280 think of, in
00:56:14.360 which the
00:56:14.780 countries that
00:56:15.400 get it under
00:56:15.960 control don't
00:56:17.460 lose control of
00:56:18.420 it pretty soon.
00:56:20.120 You get that,
00:56:20.880 right?
00:56:21.300 If any country
00:56:22.280 got their
00:56:22.880 infections down
00:56:24.280 to zero, they
00:56:25.820 would also have
00:56:26.560 to close all
00:56:27.440 travel.
00:56:28.580 It's the only
00:56:29.120 way it would
00:56:29.600 stay to zero.
00:56:30.740 And the first
00:56:31.240 thing you do
00:56:31.740 when you get it
00:56:33.280 down to zero is
00:56:34.080 you say, hey,
00:56:34.520 let's open things
00:56:35.200 up.
00:56:35.440 If there's
00:56:36.680 any international
00:56:37.660 travel, the
00:56:39.060 odds of all
00:56:39.960 the countries
00:56:40.480 getting the
00:56:41.020 infections under
00:56:42.060 control is zero.
00:56:43.300 There's no
00:56:43.640 chance.
00:56:44.600 There's no
00:56:45.140 plan.
00:56:45.720 Nobody has a
00:56:46.720 way to do
00:56:47.180 that.
00:56:48.160 Nothing.
00:56:49.100 There's nothing
00:56:49.520 you can do.
00:56:52.260 All right.
00:56:52.940 So Slaughter
00:56:53.400 Meter at 100%
00:56:54.560 until something
00:56:55.460 changes, but you
00:56:56.460 know it will.
00:56:57.520 And that's all I
00:56:58.120 got for today.
00:56:58.960 And I'll talk
00:56:59.700 to you later.