Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1059 Scott Adams： Twitter Hackers, Biden Plans, Education Improvements, Shy Trump Supporters, More

00:00:00.000 All right, I know what you're used to.

00:00:11.300 What you usually see when you come here to visit me at this exact time every day

00:00:16.600 is you think you're going to have the best time of your day

00:00:20.260 because that's what the simultaneous sip is really every time.

00:00:24.980 But today, it's going to be better than that.

00:00:28.620 I'm going to give you the only thing that's better than the simultaneous sip.

00:00:32.700 Are you ready?

00:00:33.920 The only thing that's better than the simultaneous sip?

00:00:37.440 Ah, I'm just kidding.

00:00:38.900 There's nothing better than the simultaneous sip.

00:00:41.400 Come on.

00:00:42.340 Get out of here.

00:00:43.620 Let's have it.

00:00:44.720 Let's have at it.

00:00:46.120 All you need is a cover mug or a glass of tank or chalice or steinocantean jug or flask

00:00:50.620 of a vessel of any kind.

00:00:53.700 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:57.020 I like coffee.

00:00:58.620 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day,

00:01:03.000 the thing that makes everything better, including autocorrect, pandemics,

00:01:08.900 pretty much everything.

00:01:10.900 Go.

00:01:11.320 All right.

00:01:17.060 Somebody was making me laugh in the comments because yesterday autocorrect played a little

00:01:23.260 joke on me.

00:01:25.420 So I had author Bjorn Lomborg on Periscope yesterday.

00:01:32.560 Most of you saw it.

00:01:33.420 And when I typed in the title into Periscope, Periscope changed it to Lamborghini.

00:01:40.660 So I can't really edit it after it's published in Periscope.

00:01:44.600 You can change it in YouTube and other places.

00:01:46.560 But in Periscope, you can't really go back and change it because it's like a tweet.

00:01:52.340 So I have somebody on to promote his book.

00:01:56.660 And I don't think we get his name right.

00:01:58.620 But I'll correct that now.

00:01:59.800 It's Lamborghini.

00:02:00.520 Not Lamborghini.

00:02:01.900 It's Lamborghini.

00:02:04.060 All right.

00:02:05.820 You probably are all aware that Twitter got hacked.

00:02:10.140 And boy, did Twitter get hacked.

00:02:12.780 Talk about a good hack.

00:02:14.920 I'm kind of, you know, do you ever have that feeling when you hear about a really good serial

00:02:20.080 killer?

00:02:21.740 I'm not proud of this.

00:02:23.280 But every now and then, I'll hear a story about some serial killer who, you know, built

00:02:30.360 an underground bunker to keep his victims and he had a plan and he operated for years.

00:02:36.400 And I'll have two different feelings about it.

00:02:39.000 One, well, that's awful.

00:02:41.360 That's the worst thing, you know, I've heard today.

00:02:45.220 That's one feeling.

00:02:46.900 And then the other feeling I get is, that's kind of industrious.

00:02:50.480 You know, if I'm being fair, you know, he's not lazy.

00:02:56.600 You know, he's good at executing a plan.

00:02:59.940 Maybe a systems over goals kind of guy.

00:03:02.400 I don't know.

00:03:04.360 But I'm always impressed when people put a little effort into it.

00:03:09.960 All right.

00:03:11.580 And these hackers for Twitter, they had a really good plan.

00:03:16.960 The plan was, and I guess it worked,

00:03:19.000 they somehow, allegedly, we don't know if this part is true yet, but there's some suggestion

00:03:25.200 that they may have bribed somebody within Twitter to give them some access.

00:03:30.660 They took over some accounts, some big ones like Biden, Elon Musk.

00:03:35.500 And then they tweeted from their accounts as if they had been tweeting.

00:03:39.640 And they tweeted that if, for, on behalf of some fake charity, that if you would send them

00:03:46.640 $2,000, no, $1,000 in Bitcoin, you would get back $2,000.

00:03:52.840 Now, I don't know how many people in the world are dumb enough to fall for that.

00:03:58.060 But it turns out it's at least 100.

00:04:00.120 So if you're wondering to yourself, Scott, you said that was a clever plan?

00:04:07.400 That's not a clever plan.

00:04:09.220 Who in the world would be dumb enough to send a stranger or a strange charity $1,000 in the hopes

00:04:18.260 that they would send you $2,000 back?

00:04:20.360 That doesn't even make sense.

00:04:23.960 Well, it turns out if enough people see that offer, you're going to get a few hundred.

00:04:28.320 And that's what happened.

00:04:29.880 And the brilliance of the plan is that because the tweeting came from well-established accounts

00:04:36.260 that would not scam you, you thought, well, Elon Musk isn't going to run some scam,

00:04:42.560 and Joe Biden isn't going to run some scam in the middle of an election.

00:04:47.220 But there it was.

00:04:48.480 Now, what's interesting is, you may not know this, but Joe Biden is not actually the only

00:04:55.160 person who's running for president this year.

00:04:57.480 There's this other guy, you've heard of him, Trump.

00:05:00.800 And what does it tell you that Biden was selected but Trump wasn't?

00:05:06.620 Now, it could be.

00:05:08.220 It could be that there's a political element to this, but probably not.

00:05:14.140 Here's what I think.

00:05:15.280 I think they thought Biden would be more convincing.

00:05:20.140 I think they just figured that Biden would be more likely to do this and that people would

00:05:26.180 trust Biden more than Trump if it looks suspicious.

00:05:30.100 And they're probably right.

00:05:32.060 So that was a clever hacker plan.

00:05:34.440 Probably more clever hacking than it was anything political.

00:05:39.560 All right.

00:05:42.100 There are new stories about the so-called refrigerated trucks to put all the bodies from the coronavirus deaths.

00:05:51.460 You've heard the refrigerated truck story before.

00:05:56.220 Maybe it's true this time.

00:05:58.700 Maybe it was true the other time.

00:06:00.360 But what do I tell you about persuasion?

00:06:04.120 I tell you that if you can't make it visual, it's not nearly as good.

00:06:08.880 So compare these two versions of a story.

00:06:12.180 One, hospitals are impacted.

00:06:16.060 They're overloaded.

00:06:17.140 People are, you know, there's lots of pressure on them, et cetera.

00:06:20.640 All right.

00:06:20.900 So that's sort of the generic conceptual description of what's happening in the hospitals compared to three refrigerated trucks pulled up to hold all the bodies.

00:06:34.540 Right.

00:06:35.260 Those are not comparable.

00:06:37.200 One of them is a movie because you can actually see the trucks pulling up in your head.

00:06:42.380 That's that's persuasive.

00:06:43.840 If you can see it as a movie, you're already half persuaded.

00:06:49.300 If it's a concept, your brain doesn't hold it.

00:06:52.260 It doesn't stick to things as well because you want to activate your visual part of your brain to to get something done.

00:06:59.580 So I would ask you, how true is it that these refrigerated trucks are really going to be used and they really exist?

00:07:09.700 I think in today's world, you just have to doubt that.

00:07:13.840 That doesn't mean it's untrue.

00:07:15.480 If it turns out that they're really used, that would be terrible.

00:07:18.460 And I would say, oh, OK, well, that's that's what they reported.

00:07:22.660 But you have to at least put a little bit of skepticism in this story.

00:07:27.820 I don't know how much.

00:07:29.440 Twenty five percent minimum, I would say.

00:07:31.860 I would say dial up your skepticism to at least twenty five percent on the refrigerated corpse trucks, which might be totally real.

00:07:42.840 Seventy five percent chance.

00:07:44.140 But I don't know.

00:07:47.540 I am amazed and agog.

00:07:50.160 I don't know what agog means exactly, but I think I'm agog.

00:07:56.400 Alexa, define agog. 1.00

00:07:58.720 As an adjective, agog is usually defined as.

00:08:03.800 Defined as?

00:08:04.420 I'm excited by eagerness, curiosity.

00:08:06.820 Eagerness and curiosity.

00:08:08.920 Yes.

00:08:09.500 And after, agog is usually defined as.

00:08:11.060 OK, OK.

00:08:11.840 All right.

00:08:13.820 That's enough.

00:08:15.160 Calm down.

00:08:16.280 All right.

00:08:17.420 With eager curiosity, I look at these stories about that they seem to be settled now.

00:08:25.080 So, apparently, gun purchases are way up.

00:08:30.680 And in the past, when there have been gun purchases, because, you know, whenever there's a big story in the news about any kind of upheaval in this country, there always are more gun purchases.

00:08:42.940 But in the past, apparently, those gun purchases were primarily, they were primarily for people who already own guns.

00:08:51.940 This time, 40 percent of the gun purchases are people who have never owned a gun before.

00:08:57.240 Forty percent.

00:08:59.300 What does that mean?

00:09:01.140 Forty percent are new gun owners.

00:09:03.140 Somebody asked online, somebody asked, how many are the more Democrats?

00:09:09.000 I would also ask, how many of them did not answer a poll?

00:09:16.120 But here's the part that's amazing.

00:09:18.720 The gun debate is just over.

00:09:21.440 But there are no stories about the gun debate being over, because it would be kind of embarrassing.

00:09:28.240 Now, if you can think way, way, way back to a year ago and beyond, I'm pro-Second Amendment, pro-gun.

00:09:38.280 And although I'm left of Bernie in general, I describe myself that way, gun ownership is one of those things that isn't really left or right.

00:09:51.700 A gun is a tool.

00:09:53.340 Would you agree?

00:09:54.740 That even thinking of guns as a political topic doesn't exactly make sense to me.

00:10:00.920 Because I don't think that my hammer or my saw are political, right?

00:10:07.920 I just think of them as tools.

00:10:10.100 And a firearm for self-defense is just a tool.

00:10:14.260 So I don't really think of that as either left or right, which is why I give myself the freedom to just say, well, all right.

00:10:20.480 Is it a tool I need?

00:10:23.860 Is it a tool I might need?

00:10:26.060 Is it a tool anybody needs?

00:10:28.480 So that's the only way I think of guns.

00:10:30.540 I don't think of it politically.

00:10:32.480 And one of the biggest arguments was, what happens if the government goes bad and tries to take over the citizens and become a dictatorship?

00:10:41.840 And people would argue, well, it's a good thing we all have guns, because that would make that less likely.

00:10:48.080 And other people would argue, no, you can't go up against the government because they have tanks and nuclear weapons and stuff.

00:10:54.360 To which I've always said, that's not what the fight looks like.

00:10:58.780 That's not what it would look like.

00:11:00.980 What are you imagining?

00:11:02.120 Are you imagining a line of tanks and soldiers on the right and then the left, a bunch of citizens with their handguns and, you know, some rifles and stuff?

00:11:10.540 Well, that's not what's going to happen if there were any kind of a dictatorship kind of takeover.

00:11:16.160 It would be more house to house, if you know what I mean.

00:11:20.340 So anybody who was on the side of the government would get a visit by their neighbors.

00:11:26.280 You know what I'm saying?

00:11:27.260 It would be nothing like some big battle.

00:11:30.760 It would be, let's visit your neighbor, because your neighbor has a family member who's on the dictator side.

00:11:38.400 That's what it would be.

00:11:39.480 And that would be enough to keep the dictator in control, because the citizens would have just too much power.

00:11:48.320 One of the things I had not specifically thought of, but now you can't unthink it, is what happens if there's a civil war that just comes from the citizens themselves?

00:11:59.560 Because that's sort of the feeling that you're getting with these protests, is it's approaching something like a civil war.

00:12:08.100 My opinion is it's not, and that your feeling about it is way overblown.

00:12:13.940 But it feels like that.

00:12:17.280 And anybody who's lived through this period is done with the gun conversation.

00:12:24.500 It's just over.

00:12:25.200 And I don't even think I would address anybody who wanted to talk about it at this point.

00:12:31.160 It feels like it is so off the table that if somebody said, Scott, do you want to come and represent one side in the gun debate?

00:12:39.600 Here would be my answer.

00:12:41.940 What gun debate?

00:12:43.460 What gun debate are you talking about?

00:12:46.060 Oh, you mean in the past?

00:12:47.180 Do you have a time machine where I can go back in the past and have a debate back when there was actually something to debate?

00:12:54.200 There's no longer a debate.

00:12:57.020 This ended it.

00:12:59.000 But the other one that may have ended recently in a very quiet way is climate change.

00:13:07.940 Have you heard of climate change?

00:13:10.700 Climate change just got a little gut punch by Joe Biden being in favor of nuclear energy.

00:13:20.560 Do you know who else is in favor of nuclear energy?

00:13:24.080 The Trump administration and the Department of Energy working quite aggressively for nuclear energy.

00:13:30.940 Do you know what everybody who could actually do math and science, do you know what they think is really the only way you're going to get to some kind of a no carbon situation?

00:13:45.300 Nuclear, pretty much.

00:13:47.540 I mean, everybody's in favor, I think, of doing more research.

00:13:51.340 And if you can figure out, you know, better batteries or better energy or something.

00:13:55.420 Sure, sure.

00:13:57.100 Everybody's in favor of that.

00:13:58.240 But at the same time, if you're not doing nuclear, well, you're not trying that hard.

00:14:04.180 You're not really serious.

00:14:06.140 So I think the climate change argument just sort of disappeared and it got attacked from two different directions in a very important way.

00:14:17.760 Direction number one is what are you going to do about it, right?

00:14:22.060 So there's how bad is it and what are you going to do about it are the two questions about climate change.

00:14:27.480 Would you agree?

00:14:28.760 How bad is it?

00:14:29.800 What are you going to do about it?

00:14:31.620 The what are you going to do about it apparently is roughly the same on the left and the right.

00:14:37.260 Right?

00:14:37.960 Because Biden did not take the extreme Green New Deal stuff like getting rid of airplanes.

00:14:42.940 He just made some aggressive goals that are, you know, so many years in the future that you don't even care about the deadline.

00:14:50.460 It doesn't even mean anything so far in the future.

00:14:53.260 And it's just not that different the way it feels from what the Republicans are already doing.

00:14:59.800 Now, sure, there might be some more investment in green stuff, but I don't know.

00:15:05.320 Has anything as much come out of it yet?

00:15:07.700 But I'm not sure that the citizens will see much of a difference anymore.

00:15:12.800 But here's the other part.

00:15:14.140 So that's the what do you do about it part.

00:15:16.720 The other part is the how bad is it, which, you know, drives the what do you do about it.

00:15:21.140 And that's where I think these two books that I've talked about this week, you know, Bjorn Lomborg's book, and here's the important part.

00:15:31.240 And this is the same with Michael Schellenberger's book, Apocalypse Never, which I talked about earlier.

00:15:38.540 Both books are in the same, let's say, family of criticism, which is, yes, humans are warming the earth.

00:15:47.600 So both of them start with that assumption.

00:15:51.480 This is a big deal.

00:15:52.920 They start with the assumption that, yeah, it's true, humans are warming the earth.

00:15:56.300 But then they make a far stronger argument, both Bjorn Lomborg and Michael Schellenberger, both of them with new books.

00:16:05.360 Both of them will make a big impact.

00:16:07.780 And it's just eviscerating the argument that there's a problem as big as they say.

00:16:14.740 They've just eviscerated it.

00:16:15.980 And as long as these two books are out there and people like you are willing to tell people, hey, check out these books, you're really completely eliminating the how big a problem is it part of the equation.

00:16:29.720 At the same time, you're saying, it's not that big of a problem if we do everything right.

00:16:35.020 And by the way, we're doing everything right, because we kind of are, which is pursuing every form of energy fairly aggressively is exactly what you should do, every form of cleaner energy.

00:16:48.120 So I would say that climate change just went from the biggest problem in the world to, oh, that looks like that's heading in the right direction.

00:17:01.220 So a lot of the energy is just going to come right out of it, I think.

00:17:04.860 Education is continuing to evolve, and I'm loving the conversations where people are really starting to, let's say, they're picking it apart to redesign it.

00:17:20.980 A lot of us are doing that in our minds, but there are no doubt lots of people working very hard to figure out which part of the education is the important part, which is really an interesting process, isn't it?

00:17:34.960 If you think that the education system just was designed hundreds of years ago and just evolved a little bit, it's still basically reading and writing and sitting in the classroom and listening to a teacher.

00:17:47.640 And the fact that we're picking that apart now and saying, all right, throw away all the assumptions.

00:17:53.440 Maybe it doesn't need to be a teacher.

00:17:55.540 Maybe they don't need to be in the same place.

00:17:57.980 What about these classes?

00:17:59.360 Do you need a college education?

00:18:00.680 Ivanka says companies will train you to do this specific job.

00:18:06.080 So having everything in question about maybe the most important thing that society does, which is educate, because everything good follows from that, right?

00:18:17.460 Once you get your people up to speed, good people create good outcomes.

00:18:22.320 So the fact that our most basic and important, and I would say our alpha system, can I call it that, or the apex system, the system that makes all the other systems work, education, is now going to really probably have a complete overhaul, I think.

00:18:44.040 Here's my suggestion for how to improve it.

00:18:48.200 I don't know if this is high school, or this is college, or maybe it doesn't matter, but here are the class categories that I would have.

00:18:57.680 This is sort of evolving over time, so you've heard a little of this.

00:19:00.940 One would be a class on, or maybe it's even a major, on life strategy.

00:19:06.240 Things that you would see in, such as in my book, how to fail at almost everything and still win big, where I teach things like systems are better than goals and skill stacks are good.

00:19:16.820 So knowing the user interface for life feels like that just should be a course or even a major.

00:19:25.040 That's so important, because if you don't get the basics of, well, wait, how does the world work?

00:19:30.020 If you do more of this and less of this, do you get a better result?

00:19:33.040 The answer is, if you know which button, yes, but you've got to know which button to push.

00:19:38.660 I would have a course on how to make decisions.

00:19:42.220 I do a little bit of that in my book, Loser Think.

00:19:45.660 Actually, that's mostly what the book is about, but that could be taken further.

00:19:50.680 If you look at most of the problems in the news today, from guns to green technology to racism to everything else,

00:20:02.420 they all seem to have a common problem.

00:20:06.180 What is the common problem with, you know, everything, guns, racism, green technology?

00:20:12.740 The common problem is that the differences in our opinions are differences in ability to analyze.

00:20:19.620 They're not actually political opinions.

00:20:21.740 These are fake disagreements.

00:20:23.660 If people knew how to analyze things properly, they just knew how to compare two things.

00:20:30.120 You know, can I compare this pen to this pencil?

00:20:34.380 Now, you think it's common sense.

00:20:36.280 Well, you know, you don't need to take a class to compare a pencil to a pen.

00:20:41.020 It's just obvious.

00:20:42.040 And that's where everybody goes wrong, because it's not.

00:20:47.160 It's just not.

00:20:48.280 You've got to take a lot of things into account to do a proper comparison, and you do need to learn it.

00:20:56.040 It's not something that's common sense.

00:20:58.980 I would have a course on persuasion, similar to my book, Win Bigly,

00:21:03.040 because if you can't persuade, you can't get much done.

00:21:05.900 You can't get a job.

00:21:06.900 You can't sell something.

00:21:07.880 You can't get a mate. 0.96

00:21:09.580 You know, persuasion is pretty important.

00:21:11.160 And then communication in general, which persuasion might be a subset of.

00:21:16.060 So that's what I would teach.

00:21:17.620 And then maybe entrepreneurship.

00:21:19.960 So a little bit about how would you start a business if you wanted to,

00:21:24.360 and what would you need to do if you started a business?

00:21:27.100 You know, what's a corporation?

00:21:28.720 What's a partnership?

00:21:30.200 Just some basics.

00:21:31.960 And these would be my, at least the beginning of a core platform.

00:21:37.280 Now, obviously, you need the reading and writing and science,

00:21:41.160 background, et cetera.

00:21:42.180 So you need some basics, but this is where I'd go.

00:21:45.260 Here's a little thing that you don't learn in school.

00:21:49.200 But look, just consider, if you will, I'm going to give you a little tip on one topic

00:21:56.180 that is not covered in school.

00:21:59.280 And yet it could be one of the most basic, important skills that a person can have.

00:22:04.180 And most of you are not good at it, but you could be with maybe half an hour of instruction.

00:22:12.280 And that is sleep.

00:22:14.500 Sleep should be considered a skill, not the default condition of your body when it's night

00:22:22.800 and you're tired.

00:22:23.500 We kind of think of sleep as just the thing that sort of happens at night and how hard

00:22:30.100 is it, you know?

00:22:31.140 There's no skill involved in sleeping, but there is.

00:22:35.480 Now, there may not have been skill involved in sleeping in the past because it was a simpler

00:22:40.240 world and things weren't complicated.

00:22:42.540 Maybe it was different.

00:22:43.880 I don't know.

00:22:44.680 Maybe people didn't drink as much coffee in the caveman days.

00:22:47.680 But in the modern days, sleep is so important to your performance and really your whole

00:22:54.020 quality of life that if you don't do it right, it makes a big difference and you should.

00:22:58.920 Now, I've given you sleep tips before, but here's a new one.

00:23:02.220 And this won't work for everyone.

00:23:04.680 This is a sleep tip that worked for me.

00:23:07.680 I would be interested if any of you want to try it out with the open-mindedness of, well,

00:23:13.380 if this doesn't work, I lost a week of trying something that didn't hurt me, right?

00:23:19.760 So I'd like you to just try it.

00:23:22.800 But some of you, this won't work.

00:23:26.900 You'll know if you're one of the people that it works for.

00:23:29.760 It goes like this.

00:23:30.740 If I go to bed and I can't sleep because I'm just too wound up, here's what I tell myself.

00:23:38.880 If you probably tell yourself, or the average person would say, darn it, I can't sleep.

00:23:46.500 I can't sleep.

00:23:48.020 What happens when you tell yourself over and over again you can't sleep?

00:23:52.120 Well, it doesn't help.

00:23:53.740 It doesn't help.

00:23:55.080 So that would be a bad mindset.

00:23:57.480 Let me tell you what I do.

00:23:58.980 When I can't sleep because my body is just wound up and I'm not ready to sleep,

00:24:04.740 I tell my body that I didn't work hard enough that day.

00:24:08.880 Now, your immediate reaction should be, why does that work?

00:24:14.740 You need a little more explanation, right?

00:24:17.080 It goes like this.

00:24:18.680 It helps me not a bit that night.

00:24:21.380 So that night, I'm just going to struggle to fall asleep.

00:24:25.600 So that tip doesn't help me one bit the day that I say it to myself.

00:24:30.080 I didn't work hard enough.

00:24:31.400 But the next day, it's like 7 o'clock at night, and I'll say to myself, ah, I have not exercised today.

00:24:40.120 I got busy.

00:24:41.360 I wanted to, but I didn't.

00:24:43.160 So now you say, all right, I would never exercise at 7 o'clock at night,

00:24:46.420 but I'm not going to be laying in bed again tonight and tell myself I didn't work hard enough.

00:24:52.580 So workout clothes on, hit the road, walk, run, ride your bike, lift some weights, go to the gym.

00:25:01.160 Back when people had gyms and they could go to them and they didn't die from going to the gym.

00:25:05.060 So that mindset, if you start programming it into yourself, will cause your day to be more productive

00:25:13.340 because instead of saying, what's the easiest way I can get through things,

00:25:17.660 you'll start managing your energy in a way that by the time you hit the bed at whatever your bedtime is,

00:25:24.080 10 o'clock, you're only going to want to sleep.

00:25:28.180 I push myself to the point where I know I will sleep well.

00:25:32.880 That's one of the ways I manage energy.

00:25:35.060 I've said before, and a lot of people have found this very useful,

00:25:38.560 that you should not manage your time, you should manage your energy.

00:25:43.900 Now, of course, you have to manage your time to show up to appointments,

00:25:47.400 but think in terms of managing your energy to create the best energy for the task

00:25:54.320 and then to make sure that you've used your energy up by the end of the day when it's time to go to bed

00:26:00.160 and that you haven't used it up at noon because it's going to be a tough day.

00:26:03.980 You use it all up early, but you've made sure that you did a physical work and mental work

00:26:12.180 that will get you in the sleeping point of view.

00:26:16.300 So that's the advice.

00:26:17.700 Sleep is a skill, and that skill starts when you wake up.

00:26:22.260 So your skill of sleeping at night starts when you wake up and you manage your energy in your day

00:26:30.140 to get yourself in the right condition to sleep.

00:26:33.140 It's an all-day process.

00:26:35.900 So if anybody tries that, let me know if it works for you.

00:26:38.440 I think it's the kind of framing that will appeal to some kind of mindsets that are already in place.

00:26:47.680 It won't work for everybody.

00:26:49.880 All right.

00:26:52.540 Tony Schwartz, who's some kind of a political commentator, I think he's on MSNBC,

00:26:58.260 he said this in a tweet.

00:26:59.760 It might sound like a familiar-sounding tweet.

00:27:03.420 Who has ever said something vaguely similar to this before?

00:27:08.740 See if it rings any bells.

00:27:12.320 He said in a tweet, Tony Schwartz did,

00:27:14.880 If somehow, someway, Trump is re-elected,

00:27:18.400 I won't consider it safe to continue to live in the United States.

00:27:22.740 That will be true, I believe, for many of those who have publicly opposed Trump.

00:27:29.240 Does that sound familiar?

00:27:32.660 It's kind of what I said if Biden won the election.

00:27:36.800 Now, let's compare the two assertions.

00:27:41.220 So I've said that Trump supporters would be unsafe in a world in which Biden became president

00:27:50.400 and, let's say, the left became emboldened.

00:27:54.120 And Tony Schwartz is making the exact same claim,

00:27:57.760 except saying that it would be unsafe to be a vocal Democrat in a world where Trump is re-elected.

00:28:05.040 Which of those claims seems more true?

00:28:07.920 Would it be more dangerous to be on the left or more dangerous on the right

00:28:11.000 if you're not the one whose preferred candidate is in power?

00:28:16.060 Well, how could we figure out which of those seems more reasonable?

00:28:21.300 Is there any kind of test you could do before the election

00:28:25.980 to see what the mood is in the country?

00:28:30.420 Well, I would suggest a test.

00:28:33.680 How about Tony Schwartz puts on a MAGA hat and goes to a public place?

00:28:42.200 And then I'll do the opposite.

00:28:45.300 I'll wear a Biden for president hat and I will visit the same public place or any other place.

00:28:53.300 In fact, I'll go further.

00:28:54.700 I will put on a Joe Biden hat and I will attend a Trump rally in a Joe Biden for president hat.

00:29:04.200 And I will be completely safe.

00:29:11.600 Let's just try it.

00:29:12.940 Let's make it more fun.

00:29:15.140 Let's say that Tony Schwartz has to wear a Make America Great Again hat

00:29:19.860 to a Biden event, if there ever is one that's not un-televised, that's not just digital.

00:29:28.860 And so he'll take a MAGA hat to a Democrat event

00:29:32.140 and I'll wear a Joe Biden hat to a MAGA-Trump event.

00:29:36.700 And we'll just do an experiment and see who gets the shit beat out of them.

00:29:42.220 So, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I would get some mocking

00:29:48.040 and I would get some looks from going to a Trump rally.

00:29:55.520 But I'll also bet you that the people who are mocking

00:30:00.040 and maybe looking at me at the Trump, wait for it, are smiling.

00:30:06.020 If you went to a Trump rally wearing a Biden hat,

00:30:11.800 the first thing people would do when they saw you is they would smile

00:30:14.720 because they would think it was funny.

00:30:17.180 They would think it was funny.

00:30:19.940 And they might say, hey, what are you doing here?

00:30:22.220 You're in the wrong rally and give me a hard time.

00:30:24.600 Would I ever feel physically threatened at a Trump rally?

00:30:29.840 Not even a little bit.

00:30:32.020 Wearing a Biden hat.

00:30:33.560 Not even a little bit.

00:30:34.520 It wouldn't feel the slightest bit physically dangerous.

00:30:38.920 But, of course, they'd give me a hard time.

00:30:40.940 But I guarantee they would be smiling when they did it.

00:30:45.040 Do you think it would work the same way the other way?

00:30:47.880 I don't think so.

00:30:49.660 All right.

00:30:54.120 Let's see.

00:30:55.840 Have you watched an interview on live video with Trump's niece, Mary Trump,

00:31:01.560 who has got a book that is critical of her uncle, Donald Trump?

00:31:10.240 How many of you have seen her on video?

00:31:12.740 I don't want to be unkind.

00:31:18.860 I'm just going to say this.

00:31:22.580 You should see her.

00:31:24.360 I think she talked to George Stephanopoulos, so there's some clips.

00:31:27.660 I'm just going to say this.

00:31:31.420 You should spend 10 seconds looking at a clip of her talking.

00:31:36.980 And, again, I won't be unkind.

00:31:39.720 I'm just suggesting it's worth 10 seconds of your time.

00:31:43.820 And I'm not even going to give you my opinion of her book

00:31:48.500 because in 10 seconds of listening to her talk,

00:31:52.500 you will have the same opinion I do.

00:31:56.120 So I don't need to talk you into anything.

00:31:58.500 Just spend 10 seconds.

00:32:01.060 See if you can get the vibe of what's going on here.

00:32:04.540 See if you can just get a feel for the person.

00:32:08.000 And then you're going to have the same opinion I do,

00:32:11.180 and I'm not even going to state it.

00:32:13.820 Brad Parscale apparently has been replaced

00:32:18.000 as the head of the campaign for Trump.

00:32:20.420 We don't know what is behind that,

00:32:22.340 but if you believe rumors on Twitter,

00:32:26.580 there might be some personal relationship situation going on there.

00:32:32.360 Not between Trump and Parscale,

00:32:35.160 but there might be something personal going on.

00:32:39.780 And one wonders how that works.

00:32:42.940 I especially wonder when there is this suggestion,

00:32:47.400 and I don't know who put this idea into the public's mind.

00:32:51.740 Can somebody tell me where did this idea come from?

00:32:55.160 Like, why are people even thinking this?

00:32:57.440 There's some kind of a widespread thought

00:32:59.920 that there are these secret Trump supporters

00:33:02.800 that are lying to pollsters.

00:33:05.260 Where does the public get ideas like this?

00:33:08.980 It's crazy.

00:33:10.440 Oh, wait.

00:33:11.560 I might have been part of that.

00:33:13.360 And this is how CNN writes a headline for a story

00:33:21.420 about the belief by voters

00:33:26.000 that there are shy Trump supporters.

00:33:29.300 It's called,

00:33:29.860 2020's Latest Bogeyman, Secret Trump's Voters.

00:33:34.900 2020's Latest Bogeyman?

00:33:37.540 So I guess that means that if you're a Democrat,

00:33:41.660 the Republicans are trying to scare you

00:33:44.800 by telling you that there's this boogeyman

00:33:47.180 in the form of these hidden Trump voters

00:33:51.220 that are going to get you.

00:33:52.500 They're going to get you.

00:33:53.880 They're hiding.

00:33:54.700 And there was a Monmouth poll,

00:33:58.440 maybe you've heard of it,

00:33:59.720 in which they gave Joe Biden

00:34:01.440 a 13-point lead in Pennsylvania.

00:34:04.320 So you say, wow,

00:34:05.920 he's really doing great in these competitive states.

00:34:09.600 But then they also asked Pennsylvanians

00:34:12.680 whether they thought

00:34:14.900 there was a secret Trump voter out there,

00:34:17.120 you know, a lot of them.

00:34:18.640 And 57% believe there are hidden Trump voters.

00:34:23.520 Fifty-seven percent of Pennsylvanians

00:34:27.000 think their neighbors are lying to pollsters.

00:34:33.400 Fifty-seven percent.

00:34:37.000 But then CNN,

00:34:38.460 after giving it a headline

00:34:40.060 calling it a boogeyman,

00:34:41.820 which would suggest it's not real,

00:34:44.220 further down in the story on their website,

00:34:46.860 they say,

00:34:47.680 the idea of, quote,

00:34:48.900 secret voters is not entirely far-fetched.

00:34:52.000 In the aftermath of Trump's 2016 win,

00:34:55.880 one study suggested,

00:34:57.300 quote,

00:34:57.880 the people who kept their vote a secret

00:34:59.820 overwhelmingly voted for Trump.

00:35:03.680 Did you need to see a survey

00:35:05.560 to tell you

00:35:06.280 that the people who wouldn't tell you

00:35:08.400 who they were voting for

00:35:09.480 voted for Trump?

00:35:12.520 Look at all the undecided voters.

00:35:16.500 How many undecideds are there?

00:35:18.240 Or let's say independents.

00:35:20.240 Because independents are really fake undecideds. 1.00

00:35:22.760 They're really decided.

00:35:23.720 They just pretend they're not.

00:35:29.520 Somebody says 43% of Pennsylvania voters

00:35:32.220 are poorly informed.

00:35:33.940 That sounds about right.

00:35:35.860 Anyway,

00:35:36.640 we'll see how big that boogeyman is.

00:35:39.460 I can't get past this.

00:35:45.240 See if I'm on the wrong page with this.

00:35:47.340 The reason that I think

00:35:48.760 the hidden Trump vote

00:35:50.820 is bigger than it was in 2016,

00:35:53.960 and potentially really, really big,

00:35:56.660 two reasons.

00:35:57.540 One,

00:35:58.440 it's more and more obvious

00:35:59.620 that it could be physically dangerous

00:36:01.340 and economically dangerous

00:36:03.180 to admit you're a Trump supporter.

00:36:05.240 So the first thing is

00:36:06.840 that the danger has gone up.

00:36:09.700 Would you agree?

00:36:10.700 The danger has increased

00:36:12.260 for admitting you're a Trump supporter.

00:36:14.680 So if nothing had changed but that,

00:36:17.200 there should be more

00:36:18.400 hidden Trump supporters this year

00:36:20.240 than 2016.

00:36:21.340 But that's not the only thing that happened.

00:36:24.320 Another thing that needs to happen

00:36:26.020 for persuasion

00:36:27.160 is to think about it.

00:36:30.800 You have to actually think of it.

00:36:32.460 So if nobody had ever suggested,

00:36:36.940 hey, maybe you could just lie

00:36:38.380 to the pollster.

00:36:39.760 If nobody had ever suggested that,

00:36:42.120 then people would have to think

00:36:43.320 of it themselves.

00:36:44.740 Some of them would.

00:36:46.320 Some of them would just say,

00:36:47.400 I'm not comfortable with this.

00:36:48.420 And they would just naturally

00:36:49.440 lie to the pollsters.

00:36:51.520 But what happens when you suggest it?

00:36:54.640 What happens when you put it out there

00:36:56.420 as a national story?

00:36:58.240 You know, last time

00:36:59.360 there were a lot of people hiding

00:37:00.660 and how'd that turn out

00:37:01.840 for the people who were hiding?

00:37:03.940 How did it turn out

00:37:05.560 for the people who were hiding,

00:37:08.760 you know, the secret Trump supporters

00:37:10.220 in 2016?

00:37:12.060 The way it turned out

00:37:13.420 was better than anything

00:37:14.980 that they've ever seen

00:37:16.140 in their lives politically.

00:37:18.320 The unexpected win of Trump

00:37:21.320 and the night that you learned it

00:37:23.120 and the way that you felt

00:37:24.240 if you were a Trump supporter,

00:37:25.920 and especially if you were

00:37:27.460 a hidden Trump supporter,

00:37:29.660 was something that I would describe

00:37:31.360 as really, really good.

00:37:34.460 You would feel really, really good.

00:37:36.680 Like your whole body would feel good.

00:37:38.840 You would be exploding with,

00:37:40.520 you know, dopamine

00:37:42.060 and serotonin

00:37:43.840 and whatever else

00:37:44.680 makes you feel good.

00:37:46.060 Those people got a physical reward

00:37:49.440 that lasted for months.

00:37:51.440 You know, speaking for myself,

00:37:54.120 from the day of that

00:37:55.240 surprise Trump victory,

00:37:57.420 and I had more skit in the game

00:37:59.760 because I had been publicly

00:38:00.900 predicting it for so long,

00:38:02.620 but the feeling that you got

00:38:04.580 with that surprise victory,

00:38:06.400 it lasted months.

00:38:08.680 Now,

00:38:09.960 all of the people who lied

00:38:11.960 in 2015 and 2016,

00:38:14.600 do you think they're lying again?

00:38:16.660 Of course.

00:38:17.980 Of course.

00:38:18.520 Why wouldn't they?

00:38:19.380 Because their reasons to lie

00:38:21.160 are better than ever.

00:38:23.120 And it worked out.

00:38:24.500 And if the prank works again,

00:38:27.300 because the first time

00:38:28.300 I think it was just people hiding.

00:38:30.300 But this time

00:38:30.980 there's another motivation.

00:38:33.300 The prank.

00:38:34.960 Right?

00:38:35.600 The prank

00:38:36.280 is really attractive.

00:38:38.900 And the prank

00:38:40.060 is the surprise.

00:38:42.380 Because

00:38:42.860 as much fun as you had

00:38:44.720 when it looked like

00:38:45.820 Hillary Clinton

00:38:46.560 had a 90% chance

00:38:48.280 of winning

00:38:48.680 toward the end.

00:38:49.860 And oops,

00:38:50.760 there you go.

00:38:51.940 I guess 90%

00:38:52.900 wasn't good enough.

00:38:54.600 We're heading toward a place

00:38:55.940 where the polls

00:38:56.600 are so wide

00:38:57.560 that on election day

00:38:59.300 it might be

00:38:59.980 a 99.99%

00:39:02.160 predicted result

00:39:04.920 that Biden will win.

00:39:06.760 How will Democrats feel

00:39:08.760 if there's a 99.99%

00:39:12.380 prediction

00:39:13.540 from the experts

00:39:14.700 that Biden will win

00:39:16.700 and Trump wins again?

00:39:19.960 Again.

00:39:21.400 How are they

00:39:24.260 going to take it,

00:39:25.980 the Democrats?

00:39:27.200 Well,

00:39:28.220 everybody remembers

00:39:29.360 the screaming voters,

00:39:31.160 the Democrats who lost.

00:39:32.380 You know,

00:39:32.580 there's this famous

00:39:33.520 iconic picture

00:39:34.420 of the woman

00:39:35.540 going,

00:39:36.000 ah,

00:39:36.620 and being upset.

00:39:38.960 you can't tell me

00:39:41.040 if you're a Trump supporter

00:39:42.120 you haven't looked

00:39:42.880 at that picture

00:39:43.540 a hundred times

00:39:44.340 since 2016

00:39:45.320 and laughed

00:39:45.960 every time.

00:39:47.660 Every time.

00:39:49.280 So,

00:39:50.160 the situation

00:39:51.600 is sort of

00:39:52.860 picture perfect

00:39:53.740 for the biggest

00:39:55.380 prank

00:39:56.060 ever played

00:39:57.760 in political history.

00:39:59.620 If this is

00:40:00.660 what it looks like,

00:40:02.220 and it definitely

00:40:02.880 looks like it

00:40:03.820 to me,

00:40:04.200 I think it's hard

00:40:05.760 to say

00:40:06.180 that's definitely

00:40:06.900 what it is.

00:40:07.500 You know,

00:40:07.780 we don't live

00:40:08.560 in a world

00:40:08.920 of certainty.

00:40:10.180 But if I were

00:40:11.080 going to have

00:40:11.480 to put money

00:40:12.100 on it,

00:40:13.040 I would say

00:40:13.620 that the

00:40:14.120 hidden Trump

00:40:15.100 supporter

00:40:15.520 is far and away

00:40:17.460 bigger this time

00:40:18.380 than it was

00:40:19.260 last time

00:40:20.320 and maybe bigger

00:40:21.380 than any election

00:40:22.260 ever

00:40:22.640 because

00:40:23.760 there's a genuine

00:40:25.140 fear.

00:40:26.040 It's in people's

00:40:27.240 minds.

00:40:27.720 It's a bigger fear

00:40:28.380 than it was before

00:40:29.340 and the prank,

00:40:31.480 the prank of it,

00:40:33.060 just the surprise

00:40:34.300 that could be

00:40:34.960 coming,

00:40:36.200 just could be

00:40:37.020 the funniest

00:40:37.460 thing you've

00:40:37.960 ever experienced

00:40:38.640 in your whole

00:40:39.120 freaking life,

00:40:40.320 honestly.

00:40:41.240 And that's

00:40:41.880 so attractive.

00:40:43.880 We'll see.

00:40:46.360 So here's how

00:40:47.800 CNN handled

00:40:49.980 an interview

00:40:50.840 that

00:40:51.480 President Trump

00:40:53.720 did in which

00:40:54.400 he was asked

00:40:55.660 about,

00:40:56.200 was it

00:40:56.540 Catherine Herridge

00:40:59.020 or somebody

00:40:59.420 asked him this

00:41:00.020 question?

00:41:01.940 So here's

00:41:02.920 the headline

00:41:03.300 from CNN,

00:41:04.600 Trump gets

00:41:05.260 upset when

00:41:06.240 asked about

00:41:06.940 police killing

00:41:07.740 black Americans.

00:41:09.640 What would you

00:41:10.740 think the story

00:41:11.440 is going to

00:41:11.860 say if

00:41:13.600 the headline

00:41:14.240 is Trump

00:41:14.820 gets upset

00:41:15.580 when asked

00:41:16.160 about police

00:41:16.840 killing black 1.00

00:41:17.560 Americans?

00:41:18.440 Doesn't the headline

00:41:19.340 suggest that

00:41:21.220 the President

00:41:21.760 doesn't care

00:41:22.740 about police

00:41:24.040 killing black 1.00

00:41:24.720 Americans?

00:41:25.880 Doesn't it feel

00:41:26.680 like they're,

00:41:27.520 they don't say

00:41:28.320 that,

00:41:29.500 but the way

00:41:30.020 it's phrased

00:41:30.580 is sort

00:41:31.100 of suggesting

00:41:31.980 that they

00:41:33.140 can tell

00:41:33.860 his attitude

00:41:34.520 and that

00:41:36.020 he doesn't

00:41:37.000 really care

00:41:37.620 about black

00:41:38.260 people being

00:41:38.820 killed by

00:41:39.320 police.

00:41:40.420 But is that

00:41:40.860 what happened?

00:41:42.060 Well,

00:41:42.560 let's talk

00:41:43.060 about what

00:41:43.400 actually happened.

00:41:44.780 So during

00:41:45.220 an interview,

00:41:45.800 this is from

00:41:46.380 CNN,

00:41:47.380 with CBS News,

00:41:48.640 President Donald

00:41:49.700 Trump responded

00:41:50.400 to a question

00:41:50.940 about why black

00:41:51.880 Americans are

00:41:52.740 still dying at

00:41:53.380 the hands of

00:41:53.780 law enforcement

00:41:54.260 by saying,

00:41:55.420 quote,

00:41:55.660 more white 0.58

00:41:56.720 people are

00:41:57.260 killed by

00:41:57.720 police and

00:41:58.840 calling the

00:41:59.280 question terrible.

00:42:00.860 Now,

00:42:01.020 of course,

00:42:01.340 they took

00:42:01.720 him out of

00:42:02.100 context so

00:42:03.800 that you

00:42:04.640 wouldn't know

00:42:05.040 exactly why

00:42:05.760 he was saying

00:42:06.200 the question

00:42:06.640 was terrible.

00:42:07.300 It's a little

00:42:07.800 unclear.

00:42:08.800 So they've

00:42:09.640 mucked up

00:42:10.340 their description

00:42:12.760 so you don't

00:42:13.360 know what he

00:42:13.900 was really

00:42:14.320 getting at.

00:42:15.940 Right?

00:42:16.300 They just took

00:42:16.820 the meaning

00:42:17.220 out of it and

00:42:17.780 put their own

00:42:18.240 meaning on it.

00:42:19.220 Now,

00:42:19.520 if you saw

00:42:19.900 live,

00:42:20.500 what he was

00:42:20.900 getting at is

00:42:22.220 that the terrible

00:42:22.920 part is that

00:42:24.600 you would focus

00:42:25.620 on only the

00:42:26.380 deaths of one

00:42:27.100 group of

00:42:27.520 people when

00:42:28.640 the larger

00:42:29.180 group of

00:42:29.700 people were

00:42:30.300 white.

00:42:31.660 Is that an

00:42:32.480 unfair thing 0.91

00:42:33.320 for a president

00:42:33.980 to say?

00:42:35.020 Maybe we

00:42:35.520 should focus

00:42:36.060 on the

00:42:36.540 largest group

00:42:37.320 of people

00:42:37.720 who were

00:42:37.900 getting killed, 0.89

00:42:39.120 not the

00:42:39.760 smaller group.

00:42:40.740 Or maybe we

00:42:41.340 should at least

00:42:41.760 include the

00:42:42.360 larger group

00:42:42.860 in the

00:42:43.140 conversation.

00:42:43.800 He didn't

00:42:44.040 say you

00:42:44.360 should focus

00:42:44.880 on the

00:42:45.200 larger group.

00:42:46.200 He said it

00:42:46.720 should be in

00:42:47.060 the conversation,

00:42:47.920 which is

00:42:48.240 completely fair.

00:42:50.960 So how

00:42:51.920 did Caitlin,

00:42:53.740 whatever,

00:42:54.680 on CNN,

00:42:55.620 report on

00:42:56.240 that?

00:42:56.940 She summed

00:42:57.620 up the

00:42:57.960 piece,

00:42:58.480 because it

00:42:58.840 was part

00:42:59.140 of a video

00:42:59.860 package on

00:43:00.540 Jake Tapper's

00:43:01.380 show,

00:43:02.300 and she

00:43:03.280 sums it up

00:43:03.780 by saying

00:43:04.300 that police

00:43:07.320 kill black 1.00

00:43:08.400 Americans at

00:43:09.320 a rate of

00:43:09.820 3.5 times

00:43:11.200 more than

00:43:12.240 whites.

00:43:13.720 Is that

00:43:14.440 true?

00:43:16.040 No.

00:43:16.980 It's fake

00:43:17.500 news.

00:43:18.420 Because she

00:43:19.200 does the

00:43:19.720 same data

00:43:20.400 analysis

00:43:21.000 mistake that

00:43:22.580 caused all

00:43:23.140 the protests.

00:43:24.320 It's the

00:43:24.620 same mistake.

00:43:25.940 Do you

00:43:26.140 think it's

00:43:26.500 really a

00:43:26.980 mistake?

00:43:28.020 Or do

00:43:28.300 you think

00:43:28.700 it's an

00:43:29.820 intentional

00:43:30.440 lie?

00:43:32.080 Well,

00:43:33.120 what she

00:43:33.560 says is

00:43:34.200 technically

00:43:34.840 correct,

00:43:36.340 but it's

00:43:36.900 used to

00:43:37.460 mislead,

00:43:38.260 obviously.

00:43:39.340 And I'll

00:43:39.660 tell you

00:43:39.940 why.

00:43:40.900 So what

00:43:41.580 she's doing

00:43:42.100 is saying

00:43:42.440 that if

00:43:42.800 you just

00:43:43.100 look at

00:43:43.480 the

00:43:43.800 percentage

00:43:44.200 of the

00:43:44.480 population,

00:43:45.720 black

00:43:46.020 citizens are

00:43:46.920 killed at

00:43:47.320 3.5 times

00:43:48.440 more higher

00:43:50.260 rate than

00:43:51.040 whites.

00:43:51.540 That's

00:43:52.200 true.

00:43:53.400 It's also

00:43:53.880 the wrong

00:43:54.420 thing to

00:43:54.900 measure because

00:43:56.200 police are

00:43:57.500 not stopping

00:43:58.100 people for

00:43:58.700 no reason

00:43:59.200 and killing

00:43:59.620 them.

00:44:00.560 The only

00:44:01.500 time anybody

00:44:01.980 gets killed

00:44:02.540 is if they

00:44:03.020 have a

00:44:03.300 police

00:44:03.580 encounter.

00:44:04.860 So the

00:44:05.200 only thing

00:44:05.520 you should

00:44:05.840 count is

00:44:07.160 the number

00:44:07.580 of police

00:44:08.100 encounters.

00:44:08.980 If you

00:44:09.260 do that,

00:44:09.720 it turns

00:44:09.960 out white

00:44:10.480 and black

00:44:10.800 deaths are

00:44:11.300 comparable

00:44:11.900 as a

00:44:12.840 percentage.

00:44:13.820 So she's

00:44:14.420 simply making

00:44:15.140 a data

00:44:15.720 analysis

00:44:16.500 error that

00:44:18.380 you have to

00:44:18.920 ask yourself,

00:44:19.640 is she

00:44:20.780 really so

00:44:21.420 dumb that

00:44:22.580 she doesn't

00:44:23.120 know she's

00:44:23.720 doing this?

00:44:25.960 I don't

00:44:26.480 know.

00:44:27.300 Do you?

00:44:28.340 Is, I

00:44:29.420 forget Caitlin's

00:44:30.280 last name,

00:44:31.180 Caitlin

00:44:31.440 something,

00:44:34.120 the

00:44:34.360 correspondent,

00:44:35.860 the White

00:44:36.340 House

00:44:36.540 correspondent for

00:44:37.420 CNN?

00:44:38.980 Caitlin

00:44:39.340 Collins.

00:44:40.500 Caitlin

00:44:41.000 Collins.

00:44:42.040 I can't

00:44:42.940 tell if

00:44:43.380 she's actually

00:44:44.000 not good at

00:44:44.800 analyzing or

00:44:46.440 if she's

00:44:47.220 intentionally

00:44:47.780 ignoring the

00:44:48.900 useful number

00:44:49.940 in favor of

00:44:50.980 the one that

00:44:51.580 just causes

00:44:52.520 riots and

00:44:53.640 is not

00:44:54.080 useful.

00:44:55.280 Don't

00:44:55.480 know.

00:44:57.420 And so the

00:44:58.200 question I

00:44:58.600 ask for you

00:44:59.120 is this.

00:45:01.160 Yeah, we're

00:45:01.860 big on free

00:45:02.840 speech and

00:45:03.400 should be,

00:45:04.300 but doesn't

00:45:06.160 this get

00:45:06.580 really close

00:45:07.440 to shouting

00:45:08.620 fire in a

00:45:09.700 crowded movie

00:45:11.160 theater?

00:45:12.280 So you know

00:45:12.760 the old saying

00:45:14.580 that we have

00:45:15.240 freedom of

00:45:15.740 speech, but

00:45:16.320 you still can't

00:45:17.020 yell fire.

00:45:17.780 in a crowded

00:45:18.780 theater because

00:45:19.600 that kind of

00:45:20.320 speech would

00:45:21.460 certainly cause

00:45:22.380 people to be

00:45:23.020 hurt as they

00:45:24.180 try to get

00:45:24.680 out of the

00:45:25.040 theater and

00:45:25.700 there'd be

00:45:26.460 pandemonium.

00:45:28.080 So if we

00:45:29.260 take as a

00:45:30.420 standard that

00:45:31.840 you have

00:45:32.260 complete freedom

00:45:33.080 of speech

00:45:33.560 unless it's

00:45:34.720 going to

00:45:35.020 immediately cause

00:45:36.080 people to

00:45:36.520 hurt themselves,

00:45:38.020 that's sort of

00:45:38.660 where we draw

00:45:39.380 the line.

00:45:39.800 No, no, no,

00:45:40.240 you can't do

00:45:41.060 something that

00:45:41.540 people are

00:45:41.920 going to get

00:45:42.260 killed.

00:45:43.860 That's not the

00:45:44.980 free speech

00:45:45.480 we're talking

00:45:45.900 about.

00:45:46.220 But here

00:45:47.540 CNN is

00:45:48.980 spreading a

00:45:49.940 obviously fake

00:45:51.200 or misleading

00:45:52.960 data that is

00:45:54.560 driving protests,

00:45:56.280 looting, and

00:45:57.020 deaths all over

00:45:57.820 the country.

00:45:59.140 Why is it

00:45:59.840 legal?

00:46:00.760 Think about it.

00:46:01.720 Why is it

00:46:02.160 legal for

00:46:04.160 CNN to

00:46:05.160 report data

00:46:05.880 that clearly

00:46:06.720 drives protests

00:46:08.340 and violence all

00:46:09.100 over the country

00:46:09.700 while we're

00:46:10.220 having it?

00:46:10.700 It's not even

00:46:11.500 a hypothetical

00:46:12.180 theoretical question.

00:46:14.120 It's happening

00:46:14.540 right now.

00:46:15.960 And they put

00:46:16.480 this on the

00:46:17.000 air as a

00:46:17.860 respectable

00:46:18.400 allegedly news

00:46:20.160 organization.

00:46:21.920 It is really

00:46:22.920 close to

00:46:24.820 yelling fire in

00:46:25.660 a crowded

00:46:25.980 theater, isn't

00:46:26.580 it?

00:46:27.300 Because imagine

00:46:28.180 if they had

00:46:28.740 said this.

00:46:29.420 I know it's

00:46:29.800 hard to

00:46:30.080 imagine, but

00:46:31.460 imagine if

00:46:32.000 they had said

00:46:32.460 this.

00:46:33.740 If you look

00:46:34.460 at the number

00:46:34.920 of police

00:46:35.360 stops, it's

00:46:36.120 fairly comparable.

00:46:37.080 And we

00:46:38.640 haven't asked

00:46:39.180 anybody in

00:46:39.660 Black Lives

00:46:40.160 Matter to

00:46:40.640 respond to

00:46:41.180 that, but

00:46:42.340 we'd like to

00:46:43.060 get an

00:46:43.420 interview on

00:46:43.960 that.

00:46:46.400 How different

00:46:47.480 would the

00:46:48.660 world be if

00:46:49.680 CNN were

00:46:50.540 reporting the

00:46:51.360 data analyzed

00:46:53.700 correctly?

00:46:56.780 Pretty

00:46:57.340 different.

00:46:58.120 Yeah, it

00:46:58.520 seems that

00:46:58.980 CNN has

00:47:00.300 blood on

00:47:00.820 their hands.

00:47:02.080 The trouble

00:47:02.840 is that you

00:47:03.520 could take

00:47:03.880 this argument

00:47:04.500 pretty far and

00:47:05.900 it would close

00:47:06.360 down the

00:47:06.900 news business

00:47:07.700 because it

00:47:08.880 would be easy

00:47:09.420 to say,

00:47:10.040 well, what

00:47:10.540 about Hannity

00:47:13.020 saying something

00:47:14.760 medical that

00:47:15.780 people believed?

00:47:17.740 To which I'd

00:47:18.320 say, good

00:47:20.680 point, right?

00:47:23.220 Yeah.

00:47:23.720 The trouble

00:47:24.400 is that if

00:47:25.180 you made it

00:47:25.760 actually illegal

00:47:26.720 to do that,

00:47:27.700 what CNN is

00:47:28.520 doing that is

00:47:29.200 clearly killing

00:47:29.900 people, you'd

00:47:31.060 have to extend

00:47:32.420 that to the

00:47:34.400 news saying

00:47:35.120 anything that

00:47:35.760 gets people

00:47:36.220 killed.

00:47:36.640 And unfortunately

00:47:37.360 it's so

00:47:37.980 common, both

00:47:39.460 on the left

00:47:40.000 and the

00:47:40.380 right, that

00:47:41.980 not because

00:47:43.380 they're necessarily

00:47:43.940 doing it

00:47:44.380 intentionally,

00:47:45.400 although I

00:47:45.980 think CNN

00:47:46.460 is doing this

00:47:47.160 intentionally.

00:47:47.920 That would

00:47:48.340 be my guess.

00:47:49.460 It's hard to

00:47:50.060 know, but it

00:47:51.100 feels intentional.

00:47:53.000 Because I'd

00:47:53.700 hate to think

00:47:54.120 they're this

00:47:54.460 dumb.

00:47:55.800 What do you

00:47:56.240 think?

00:47:57.340 Do you think

00:47:57.760 Caitlin Collins

00:47:58.600 actually doesn't

00:48:00.080 know that she

00:48:01.720 is analyzing

00:48:02.360 the wrong?

00:48:02.800 do you think

00:48:04.200 she doesn't

00:48:04.680 know?

00:48:05.080 In the

00:48:05.620 comments, tell

00:48:06.200 me your

00:48:06.460 opinion.

00:48:06.860 Because we

00:48:07.140 can't read

00:48:07.540 her mind,

00:48:08.080 and I'm

00:48:08.980 trying to

00:48:09.380 catch myself

00:48:10.180 from doing

00:48:11.160 the thing I

00:48:11.660 most criticize

00:48:12.720 in other

00:48:13.120 people, which

00:48:13.680 is, no,

00:48:14.020 you're not a

00:48:14.380 mind reader.

00:48:15.280 You don't

00:48:15.700 know what a

00:48:16.120 stranger is

00:48:16.740 thinking.

00:48:17.120 So I'm

00:48:17.980 going to pull

00:48:19.180 back my

00:48:21.680 statement that

00:48:22.500 it seems

00:48:23.100 obvious it's

00:48:24.060 intentional,

00:48:24.820 because I'm

00:48:25.460 not sure it

00:48:25.860 is obvious.

00:48:26.940 I don't know

00:48:27.720 that it is

00:48:28.180 obvious.

00:48:30.520 I'm looking at

00:48:31.600 your comments.

00:48:32.260 Yes, no,

00:48:33.140 no.

00:48:34.060 Of course

00:48:34.520 they know.

00:48:35.280 Yes, they

00:48:35.640 know.

00:48:36.460 Dumb.

00:48:40.220 Swalwell

00:48:40.700 secretly loves

00:48:41.740 Goya beans.

00:48:42.880 Okay, that's

00:48:43.300 kind of funny.

00:48:44.520 She doesn't

00:48:45.060 know.

00:48:45.380 She doesn't

00:48:45.800 know.

00:48:46.140 others saying

00:48:47.400 it's intentional,

00:48:48.380 clueless, 50-50.

00:48:49.640 She knows, she

00:48:50.160 knows.

00:48:50.500 I think they

00:48:50.900 know.

00:48:51.360 She's not

00:48:51.760 trained.

00:48:52.940 Yeah, so

00:48:54.020 she may not

00:48:55.220 have the type

00:48:56.340 of analytical

00:48:57.540 background

00:48:58.980 necessary, but

00:49:00.580 I wonder if

00:49:01.200 she's ever

00:49:01.620 even heard

00:49:02.160 the argument,

00:49:03.960 because I

00:49:04.300 even wonder

00:49:04.760 that, don't

00:49:05.240 you?

00:49:05.940 It makes

00:49:06.540 sense that

00:49:07.120 people who

00:49:07.620 only watch

00:49:08.260 CNN don't

00:49:08.980 see the

00:49:09.360 arguments on

00:49:10.000 Fox, but

00:49:11.360 do the

00:49:11.880 commentators

00:49:12.620 and the

00:49:13.340 professionals who

00:49:14.200 actually work

00:49:14.860 there, do

00:49:15.940 they also

00:49:16.460 not see the

00:49:17.260 argument on

00:49:17.740 the other

00:49:18.000 side?

00:49:20.860 Somebody

00:49:21.340 says she

00:49:21.800 has a

00:49:22.140 boss.

00:49:23.140 That's

00:49:23.360 true.

00:49:24.280 Yeah,

00:49:24.480 Cailin

00:49:24.740 Collins has

00:49:25.240 a boss, and

00:49:26.760 CNN is

00:49:28.260 coordinated

00:49:29.260 enough that

00:49:30.820 if anybody

00:49:31.640 at CNN

00:49:32.200 knew it was

00:49:33.160 wrong, she 0.99

00:49:33.980 would hear

00:49:34.320 about it,

00:49:35.120 right?

00:49:36.140 If anybody

00:49:37.260 at CNN

00:49:38.060 knew that

00:49:38.960 number was

00:49:39.520 wrong, they'd

00:49:41.160 tell somebody

00:49:41.680 else and say,

00:49:42.200 hey, hey, I

00:49:43.280 heard you say

00:49:43.720 that on the

00:49:44.340 air, you

00:49:45.280 should correct

00:49:45.800 that.

00:49:47.500 So does

00:49:48.240 nobody at

00:49:48.920 CNN know

00:49:49.480 that's wrong?

00:49:51.500 Yeah, that

00:49:52.200 would be a

00:49:52.820 bigger reach,

00:49:53.460 wouldn't it?

00:49:54.280 All right, that

00:49:55.060 is what I

00:49:56.280 have to say

00:49:56.920 for today.

00:49:59.800 I would like

00:50:00.560 to give you

00:50:01.400 a little

00:50:01.940 encouragement.

00:50:06.360 Ask

00:50:06.800 yourself,

00:50:08.340 who have

00:50:08.780 been your

00:50:09.360 most reliable

00:50:10.460 public

00:50:11.440 figures.

00:50:12.840 One of the

00:50:13.580 things I

00:50:13.980 told you

00:50:14.420 early on

00:50:15.100 was, when

00:50:16.800 the pandemic

00:50:17.760 first started

00:50:18.540 closing things

00:50:19.420 down, one

00:50:20.640 of the things

00:50:20.960 I told you

00:50:21.540 is that

00:50:22.020 nobody in

00:50:22.580 the United

00:50:22.940 States would

00:50:23.720 starve.

00:50:25.480 Right?

00:50:26.160 I told you

00:50:26.720 that directly.

00:50:27.340 I said, no,

00:50:28.080 no risk.

00:50:29.460 Nobody's going

00:50:30.020 to starve in

00:50:30.620 this country.

00:50:31.760 Nobody did.

00:50:32.980 Now, it's

00:50:34.100 hard, but

00:50:37.120 everybody's

00:50:37.760 eaten.

00:50:37.940 I told you

00:50:39.700 that we

00:50:40.220 would probably

00:50:40.740 be able to

00:50:41.440 borrow, or

00:50:42.480 not borrow

00:50:43.320 necessarily, but

00:50:44.100 print money

00:50:45.380 massively, because

00:50:47.500 we're in this

00:50:48.020 unique situation

00:50:48.940 where demand

00:50:50.600 is so low

00:50:51.440 that inflation

00:50:52.480 can't happen,

00:50:53.320 and that's the

00:50:53.720 main reason you

00:50:54.320 don't want to

00:50:54.740 print money.

00:50:56.120 Sure enough,

00:50:57.320 we printed

00:50:58.700 gazillions of

00:50:59.900 dollars, and

00:51:01.740 nobody's

00:51:03.160 sounding the

00:51:04.600 warning about 0.81

00:51:05.060 inflation, because

00:51:06.420 I had accurately 0.95

00:51:07.560 deduced that

00:51:09.520 we could just

00:51:10.020 print money and

00:51:10.740 print our way

00:51:11.300 out of it, in

00:51:12.160 this weird, unique

00:51:13.180 situation.

00:51:14.120 That's exactly

00:51:14.920 what happened.

00:51:16.700 Who told you

00:51:17.740 way before we

00:51:19.660 started getting

00:51:20.220 serious about

00:51:21.000 China that 0.98

00:51:21.960 China was an 1.00

00:51:24.440 enemy, not a

00:51:25.140 trading partner?

00:51:26.560 I did.

00:51:27.780 I told you that

00:51:28.460 two years before

00:51:29.440 it became obvious

00:51:30.280 to basically the

00:51:31.460 entire United

00:51:32.100 States.

00:51:32.500 who told you

00:51:34.400 that when the

00:51:35.940 recovery started,

00:51:38.100 the economic

00:51:38.720 recovery, that

00:51:40.020 it would be

00:51:40.620 faster than the

00:51:42.640 experts predicted?

00:51:44.920 I did.

00:51:46.400 The president

00:51:47.220 did too, but I

00:51:48.760 told you, clearly

00:51:49.820 and often, when

00:51:51.120 the recovery

00:51:51.620 starts, it's

00:51:53.200 going to be

00:51:53.680 impressive in a

00:51:54.820 way you've never

00:51:55.360 seen before.

00:51:56.360 It'll be jaw

00:51:57.640 dropping, and it

00:51:59.260 is.

00:51:59.600 So, when

00:52:02.840 you were

00:52:03.160 following me

00:52:03.960 when I was

00:52:05.060 doing my

00:52:05.420 evening

00:52:05.860 periscopes, a

00:52:07.660 lot of what I

00:52:08.200 was doing is

00:52:08.720 trying to talk

00:52:11.780 you off the

00:52:12.300 ledge that

00:52:12.860 things aren't

00:52:13.340 as bad as

00:52:13.820 they look.

00:52:14.800 And the

00:52:15.260 reason I'm

00:52:15.660 pointing this

00:52:16.080 out is not

00:52:17.000 just to brag,

00:52:17.960 although bragging

00:52:18.540 is good.

00:52:19.700 I'm never

00:52:20.340 opposed to

00:52:21.340 bragging.

00:52:22.320 If you ever

00:52:23.000 hear me say

00:52:24.460 anything like

00:52:24.940 that, I

00:52:25.200 would be

00:52:25.400 lying.

00:52:26.400 I do think

00:52:27.400 that it is

00:52:28.200 functional and

00:52:29.080 useful.

00:52:29.600 for people

00:52:30.620 to, especially

00:52:31.480 in the public,

00:52:32.040 to tell you

00:52:32.840 what they got

00:52:33.260 right.

00:52:34.780 As I get

00:52:35.560 things wrong,

00:52:36.140 I'll tell you

00:52:36.480 that too.

00:52:37.540 I'll probably

00:52:37.920 spend less time

00:52:38.680 telling you what

00:52:39.220 I got wrong.

00:52:40.520 Why wouldn't

00:52:40.900 I?

00:52:42.720 But think

00:52:45.100 about that.

00:52:45.980 Now, the

00:52:46.400 other thing

00:52:46.880 that I said,

00:52:48.120 I didn't say

00:52:49.180 it often, but

00:52:50.140 those of you

00:52:51.200 who are

00:52:51.360 regulars will

00:52:52.120 back me up.

00:52:53.240 I also said

00:52:54.140 you better not

00:52:55.360 wait for

00:52:56.020 vaccinations.

00:52:58.460 You better

00:52:59.760 not wait

00:53:00.440 for medical

00:53:01.840 science because

00:53:03.260 I don't think

00:53:03.820 you're going

00:53:04.100 to have a

00:53:04.680 vaccination in

00:53:06.480 time to save

00:53:07.620 the economy,

00:53:08.260 et cetera, and

00:53:09.020 then we're just

00:53:09.420 going to have to

00:53:09.840 live with the

00:53:10.440 virus.

00:53:11.800 It looks like

00:53:12.480 it.

00:53:12.900 It looks like

00:53:13.640 the situation

00:53:14.300 is we're

00:53:14.900 simply going

00:53:15.460 to have to

00:53:15.920 adapt to

00:53:17.540 living with

00:53:18.000 the virus

00:53:18.520 until who

00:53:19.780 knows.

00:53:20.620 Maybe it's a

00:53:21.380 year and a

00:53:21.700 half from now

00:53:22.160 when we've

00:53:22.540 got something.

00:53:23.920 So, yeah,

00:53:25.820 the stock

00:53:26.200 market is at

00:53:26.780 an all-time

00:53:27.260 high.

00:53:29.720 And here's

00:53:30.760 the other

00:53:31.080 thing which I

00:53:31.800 predicted.

00:53:32.460 It'll take a

00:53:32.980 little bit

00:53:33.280 longer for

00:53:33.840 this to

00:53:34.360 unwind,

00:53:35.420 which is the

00:53:36.120 total shaking

00:53:36.920 of the box

00:53:37.640 of the economy

00:53:38.420 and the

00:53:38.920 rethinking

00:53:39.320 of everything

00:53:39.880 from education

00:53:40.800 to the food

00:53:41.760 supply to

00:53:42.600 really everything.

00:53:44.460 The rethinking

00:53:45.400 of all that

00:53:46.100 will actually be

00:53:46.880 an economic

00:53:47.560 stimulus because

00:53:49.360 it creates all

00:53:50.160 kinds of new

00:53:50.940 businesses to

00:53:51.780 wind up,

00:53:52.360 et cetera.

00:53:54.920 So I think

00:53:55.760 the economy

00:53:56.340 is going to

00:53:56.960 be a good

00:53:57.860 spot.

00:53:58.560 I think that

00:53:59.320 there really

00:54:01.800 isn't much

00:54:02.400 option except

00:54:03.220 to live with

00:54:04.100 a grotesque

00:54:06.120 amount of

00:54:06.960 coronavirus

00:54:07.860 deaths.

00:54:08.940 And we're

00:54:09.280 just going to

00:54:09.740 deal with it

00:54:10.380 because we're

00:54:11.160 at war.

00:54:12.040 We're at war

00:54:12.960 with the virus

00:54:13.720 and it's the

00:54:15.440 weirdest kind

00:54:16.020 of war because

00:54:16.620 the civilians

00:54:17.300 are all in.

00:54:18.600 And the most

00:54:19.800 vulnerable among

00:54:20.920 us are on

00:54:21.900 the front lines

00:54:22.620 in a sense

00:54:23.460 because they

00:54:24.260 have the most

00:54:24.900 vulnerability.

00:54:26.480 So somebody

00:54:27.840 says it's too

00:54:28.640 soon to tell

00:54:29.320 about inflation.

00:54:30.280 That is correct.

00:54:31.700 You always have

00:54:32.640 that risk of

00:54:33.320 future inflation.

00:54:34.760 But let me say

00:54:35.760 this as clearly

00:54:36.500 as possible.

00:54:37.600 If we get to

00:54:38.620 the point where

00:54:39.240 inflation is a

00:54:40.180 problem, we've

00:54:41.660 really done well.

00:54:44.080 Yeah, now

00:54:44.640 Moderna has a

00:54:46.260 vaccine that

00:54:48.200 they think will

00:54:49.100 work.

00:54:49.880 Looks promising.

00:54:50.960 Need a little

00:54:51.380 extra testing.

00:54:52.960 We'll see how

00:54:53.500 that goes.

00:54:54.980 Fingers crossed.

00:54:58.360 And the

00:55:01.540 election will be

00:55:02.420 the end.

00:55:02.980 I don't know

00:55:03.260 what that means.

00:55:04.460 Oh, and you

00:55:05.440 mean if a

00:55:06.100 Democrat gets

00:55:06.940 elected?

00:55:07.740 Yeah.

00:55:08.940 So let me

00:55:09.780 update the

00:55:10.420 slaughter meter.

00:55:11.660 The slaughter

00:55:12.140 meter is at

00:55:13.180 100%.

00:55:14.820 If nothing

00:55:16.860 changed between

00:55:17.920 now and

00:55:18.360 election, the

00:55:19.900 slaughter meter

00:55:20.400 says there's

00:55:21.000 100% chance of

00:55:22.480 Trump being

00:55:22.980 re-elected.

00:55:24.120 But of course

00:55:24.540 lots of things

00:55:25.320 will change.

00:55:26.460 So it's not a

00:55:27.000 prediction.

00:55:27.740 It's just a fun

00:55:28.580 little point in

00:55:30.080 time that says

00:55:30.900 unless something

00:55:31.620 changes, but it

00:55:33.440 will change.

00:55:34.580 The last time,

00:55:35.880 I mean I started

00:55:36.500 doing the

00:55:37.080 slaughter meter

00:55:37.860 always with the

00:55:39.480 caveat that until

00:55:41.180 something changes

00:55:42.040 and it will,

00:55:43.180 before the

00:55:43.700 coronavirus.

00:55:45.660 I mean really,

00:55:46.920 it was so obvious

00:55:48.380 that there would

00:55:48.860 be big things

00:55:49.640 between now and

00:55:51.360 November, but I

00:55:52.240 didn't think it

00:55:52.640 would be that

00:55:53.000 big.

00:55:56.620 Why should we

00:55:57.460 have to live

00:55:58.020 with the deaths?

00:55:58.860 Other countries

00:55:59.480 are managing it

00:56:00.280 much better.

00:56:01.860 Let me answer

00:56:02.740 it this way.

00:56:04.600 Those other

00:56:05.260 countries that

00:56:06.140 have gotten it

00:56:06.800 under control,

00:56:08.540 it's not going

00:56:09.180 to stay that

00:56:09.720 way.

00:56:10.660 There is no

00:56:11.400 scenario that

00:56:12.780 anybody can

00:56:13.280 think of, in

00:56:14.360 which the

00:56:14.780 countries that

00:56:15.400 get it under

00:56:15.960 control don't

00:56:17.460 lose control of

00:56:18.420 it pretty soon.

00:56:20.120 You get that,

00:56:20.880 right?

00:56:21.300 If any country

00:56:22.280 got their

00:56:22.880 infections down

00:56:24.280 to zero, they

00:56:25.820 would also have

00:56:26.560 to close all

00:56:27.440 travel.

00:56:28.580 It's the only

00:56:29.120 way it would

00:56:29.600 stay to zero.

00:56:30.740 And the first

00:56:31.240 thing you do

00:56:31.740 when you get it

00:56:33.280 down to zero is

00:56:34.080 you say, hey,

00:56:34.520 let's open things

00:56:35.200 up.

00:56:35.440 If there's

00:56:36.680 any international

00:56:37.660 travel, the

00:56:39.060 odds of all

00:56:39.960 the countries

00:56:40.480 getting the

00:56:41.020 infections under

00:56:42.060 control is zero.

00:56:43.300 There's no

00:56:43.640 chance.

00:56:44.600 There's no

00:56:45.140 plan.

00:56:45.720 Nobody has a

00:56:46.720 way to do

00:56:47.180 that.

00:56:48.160 Nothing.

00:56:49.100 There's nothing

00:56:49.520 you can do.

00:56:52.260 All right.

00:56:52.940 So Slaughter

00:56:53.400 Meter at 100%

00:56:54.560 until something

00:56:55.460 changes, but you

00:56:56.460 know it will.

00:56:57.520 And that's all I

00:56:58.120 got for today.

00:56:58.960 And I'll talk

00:56:59.700 to you later.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - July 16, 2020

Episode 1059 Scott Adams： Twitter Hackers, Biden Plans, Education Improvements, Shy Trump Supporters, More

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