Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1095 Scott Adams： Biden's Fake Lead in Polls Evaporates, Trump Supporters Flee to Water, Coup V2.0, Q and BLM

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in.

00:00:13.280 I put on a shirt just for you.

00:00:16.060 That's right, I was shirtless until a moment ago because we're in a heat wave and I don't have air conditioning.

00:00:24.940 Sure wish I did. I have it in the other part of the house, but not in my office.

00:00:30.980 And how long does it take to fix air conditioning during the heat wave?

00:00:34.920 Well, it's not fast, so maybe sometime in two weeks or so.

00:00:40.540 So I may not be able to work in my office. I'm going to have to relocate somewhere for probably a few weeks.

00:00:46.500 See what happens.

00:00:47.640 But enough about me. Let's have the simultaneous sip and all you need is a copper, a mug, a glass, a tanker, chalzer, stein, a canteen, jar, or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:56.320 And fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:01:01.120 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:01:06.740 It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now. Go!

00:01:09.820 Well, although I still have electricity where I live and my zip code, I'm in California and it looks like a lot of California will not have electricity today.

00:01:25.160 Why? Because our government in California is incompetent. 0.97

00:01:31.120 It decided to be very green and socially correct.

00:01:35.620 And the cost of that is getting rid of your nuclear power, maybe some of your gas power, and trying to make it more green.

00:01:45.060 What's the problem with that?

00:01:48.840 No electricity when it gets hot.

00:01:52.840 So there will be people dropping like flies today because of bad government management.

00:01:59.420 There will be people who probably die today because Governor Newsom didn't do his job and the rest of the government.

00:02:08.420 Because if you're getting rid of power sources when you don't have enough, that's going to come back and bite you.

00:02:16.600 So if you'd like the rest of the country to be as well managed as California, you know how to do it.

00:02:26.040 I don't know why anybody stays in California.

00:02:28.340 The only reason I do is because connections and routes and, you know, I've got too many things here that I can't walk away from.

00:02:38.420 But anybody who can leave, who stays in California, I don't know why you'd do it.

00:02:46.060 Unless, like me, you've got connections.

00:02:50.580 So Rush Limbaugh is getting in trouble today for, I guess I didn't hear it, but he was referring to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as Joe and Ho.

00:03:00.640 Now, he didn't make that up.

00:03:02.620 You've seen that going around the Internet.

00:03:03.980 That here is my advice to Republicans slash conservatives.

00:03:10.400 That line of attack on Harris just doesn't work.

00:03:14.660 So if the only thing you're trying to accomplish is to make Republicans and conservatives less popular and to get them fewer votes, then that's the way to go.

00:03:28.560 Because, you know, the personal sexual past of anybody, we just can't make that part of politics.

00:03:38.300 It just can't be.

00:03:39.780 You know, if she broke some laws, okay.

00:03:42.280 But otherwise, since that didn't happen, it's just counterproductive.

00:03:47.740 It's just counterproductive.

00:03:49.400 It doesn't do anything.

00:03:52.280 So I would say don't do that.

00:03:54.780 All right.

00:03:55.120 So here is the Democrats' plan for retaining power or getting power, I guess, back from Trump.

00:04:02.860 They have three ways to win.

00:04:06.060 Three different ways to win.

00:04:08.340 Number one, fair and square.

00:04:11.140 Let's say Biden and Harris just get more votes.

00:04:14.960 That's one way to win.

00:04:16.020 Number two, rig the election with mail-in votes and fraud and all that.

00:04:25.420 Could that work?

00:04:26.700 Absolutely.

00:04:27.880 Absolutely.

00:04:28.640 Because you're only talking about some battleground states.

00:04:32.020 How hard would it be to rig the votes with mail-in votes and battleground states?

00:04:37.060 Easy.

00:04:38.480 Easy, I would think.

00:04:39.920 So they could win that way.

00:04:41.060 But they have a third plan, which is the dangerous one.

00:04:46.560 And that's the one that goes like this.

00:04:49.720 Phase one, make sure that the election will not be seen as credible no matter who wins.

00:04:56.020 Now, this is a big deal because we're better off with an inaccurate vote count that we mistakenly

00:05:02.080 think is credible than we would be if we got exactly the right vote count.

00:05:09.200 Let's say there were no errors whatsoever.

00:05:11.640 Impossible.

00:05:12.440 But we'll just say that.

00:05:13.240 But we don't think it's credible.

00:05:16.060 That would be the worst case, right?

00:05:18.380 So if you had a choice of a good vote count that we don't trust or an inaccurate vote count

00:05:24.920 that for whatever reason we do trust, you want the one where we trust.

00:05:29.740 Because otherwise the country is in trouble.

00:05:32.500 And it looks like the Democrats are setting up a situation that guarantees the outcome will

00:05:39.480 be in question.

00:05:40.420 Wouldn't you say that that's obvious at this point?

00:05:43.100 It's fairly obvious that the intention of the mail-in voting is to make sure that you

00:05:48.660 can't tell who won.

00:05:51.040 That is the intention.

00:05:52.200 You know, you don't have to be a mind reader to know that if you could select from choices

00:05:58.280 that have more integrity versus less in a national election, you would never choose the one with

00:06:05.260 less integrity unless you wanted less integrity, right?

00:06:11.180 You would only choose that option if that's what you wanted.

00:06:15.520 Otherwise, you'd say, all right, everybody's got the same risk.

00:06:18.460 Go to the voting places and vote.

00:06:23.400 So once they get there, let's say Trump wins, but narrowly.

00:06:29.440 If Trump wins, but narrowly, they're going to say that the vote was not valid.

00:06:34.140 And they're going to start whatever legal and or extra legal process to remove a president

00:06:40.160 that they would then label as a dictator who refused to leave office.

00:06:45.340 How do you know this is true?

00:06:46.540 Because you can see the disinformation campaign very clearly.

00:06:51.960 On CNN, you're going to see more and more of this.

00:06:55.400 It's going to be, what happens if Trump refuses to leave after he loses, right?

00:07:01.660 Every time they bring up that hypothetical, they're forming a truth that they can then just

00:07:08.440 transfer into whatever happens.

00:07:10.440 So reality hasn't given us an outcome of an election yet, but CNN is already forming the

00:07:17.200 truth about it, which will then just be ported over to the actual situation.

00:07:22.540 And so the truth that they're selling, the brainwashing, if you will, the disinformation campaign.

00:07:28.060 And by the way, if I had heard anybody talk the way I'm talking right now five years ago,

00:07:34.320 I would have laughed and I would have said, you stupid conspiracy theorists, there's nobody

00:07:42.460 trying to overthrow the government.

00:07:45.520 But then we just watched it.

00:07:47.540 We know for sure that the Democrats and the FBI and the media did, in fact, try to overthrow

00:07:54.740 the government.

00:07:55.220 So that's not even speculation at this point.

00:07:58.580 It's, you know, proven, demonstrable fact.

00:08:03.720 So if they did it once, would they do it a second time?

00:08:07.420 Oh, the reason to do it a second time is way bigger.

00:08:11.380 There's way more incentive to do it a second time.

00:08:14.780 Do you know why?

00:08:16.680 Because we haven't yet jailed the people who did it the first time.

00:08:20.360 If the, let's say I won't name any names, but don't you think there's some extra people

00:08:26.900 who have some trouble coming?

00:08:28.900 Some people whose names are, you know, you know, I've got a feeling that the Durham probe

00:08:36.280 and the election are racing right now.

00:08:39.360 And if Durham can get certain people indicted and or in jail before the election, that might

00:08:46.920 be one thing.

00:08:47.580 But those same people who might be indicted and or go to jail are probably going to push

00:08:53.520 pretty hard for the option of making sure that the election result is not credible if

00:08:59.820 Trump wins.

00:09:00.980 Because in order for some people to stay out of jail, they might have to rig the election

00:09:06.780 and remove the legally elected president to stay out of jail.

00:09:12.200 To stay out of jail.

00:09:13.920 Would anybody rig an election to stay out of jail?

00:09:18.140 Yeah.

00:09:19.600 Yeah.

00:09:20.600 Especially if you rigged the last election or you tried to by having a coup and removing

00:09:25.640 the president.

00:09:27.040 You know, in effect, rigging it after the fact, I guess you'd say.

00:09:31.640 So every bit of this is entirely not only possible, but probable.

00:09:37.960 I would go so far as to say probable at this point.

00:09:42.800 Yeah.

00:09:42.940 Why is Adam Schiff not in jail?

00:09:44.600 I don't even understand that.

00:09:46.220 Clearly, he should be in jail.

00:09:49.560 All right.

00:09:50.160 Now let's talk about what the media is doing to us.

00:09:55.040 So we've got mailbox gate going on.

00:09:57.840 The belief that Trump is having all the mailboxes picked up on trucks and taken away so that

00:10:03.980 people can't vote by mail.

00:10:05.260 Now, of course, I saw that story and I said to myself, you know, I feel I'm going to wait a little bit.

00:10:12.440 If you see a story that the president has ordered mailboxes to be physically removed so that

00:10:19.840 people can't vote, the first thing you should think about that story is maybe I'll wait a little

00:10:26.380 bit on this one.

00:10:27.080 I'm just going to take a little pause on this one because I don't want to jump right in on

00:10:32.820 the removing mailboxes all across the country story because it's a little bit, have you ever

00:10:39.280 heard me say this before, a little bit on the nose?

00:10:45.040 Once you learn this on the nose thing where the news story is a little too perfect, isn't

00:10:52.360 that a little perfect?

00:10:53.380 The president is rounding up mailboxes?

00:10:56.980 Your first thought should be, probably not.

00:11:01.420 Probably not.

00:11:02.400 And sure enough, you wait 24 hours, you look at the news, you know, Breitbart's got a story

00:11:09.540 about, I guess, during the Obama administration, 14,000 mailboxes were removed.

00:11:15.880 It's normal maintenance to remove them and relocate them into busier places.

00:11:20.560 It's just business as usual.

00:11:22.020 There's literally nothing that happened.

00:11:24.900 So, you got that.

00:11:28.660 Then what else we got going?

00:11:31.720 Oh, there's the fake story that the president is pushing a birther thing with Harris, which

00:11:39.920 he's not exactly pushing.

00:11:41.600 He's just saying other people brought it up.

00:11:44.860 That's it.

00:11:45.940 Yeah, people brought it up.

00:11:47.300 Okay, I guess that's our national story.

00:11:51.300 That's all we're going to talk about, is the fact that the president didn't do something,

00:11:54.940 but you can kind of make it seem as if he did, if you word it right.

00:11:58.840 That's news.

00:11:59.480 What else we got going on?

00:12:04.120 So, New Zealand has delayed their election, which could not make me any happier, because

00:12:13.200 the Democrats, well, not just the Democrats, but people have been saying for, I don't know,

00:12:20.260 weeks now, New Zealand, they're the smart ones.

00:12:23.200 New Zealand really knows how to handle a coronavirus.

00:12:26.640 We should be more like New Zealand.

00:12:28.920 You know what would be good if the United States were more like New Zealand? 1.00

00:12:33.520 They've got their act together.

00:12:35.620 They did what?

00:12:36.940 They delayed the election because of the coronavirus?

00:12:41.660 Ah, now we don't like New Zealand.

00:12:44.720 New Zealand's the wrong model. 0.79

00:12:46.600 New Zealand does everything wrong.

00:12:48.140 New Zealand is dumb.

00:12:49.160 So, you can expect that today.

00:12:53.000 New Zealand's not so smart when they don't do what we want them to do.

00:12:58.660 So, both Biden and Harris did not appear on any shows before the convention.

00:13:06.140 What the heck does that tell you?

00:13:09.080 Neither Biden nor Harris, or even any senior people from their campaign, they didn't send

00:13:15.440 anybody out to talk on one of the biggest days of the week for the election.

00:13:21.060 Are they even trying?

00:13:23.840 Is there something going on?

00:13:25.420 Here's what I think is going on.

00:13:28.220 Hypothesis.

00:13:29.780 When would be the best time to replace Biden with Harris?

00:13:35.220 Would it be during the convention?

00:13:37.840 Would it be that once all the Democrats are somehow at least connected by Zoom and digitally

00:13:45.780 connected, could it be that that would be the right time for, let's say, Joe Biden to

00:13:53.600 say, I've got a sniffle.

00:13:56.680 And because I have a sniffle, I couldn't possibly run for president.

00:14:01.320 Or some minor problem like that.

00:14:05.460 Is it possible that all of the conversation happening right now is around the question

00:14:11.260 of who should be the top of the ticket?

00:14:13.640 Do you think that they're having that conversation intensely?

00:14:17.980 Well, here's the thing.

00:14:19.420 If they get past the convention, it's going to be a lot harder to change the ticket, won't

00:14:24.240 it?

00:14:24.740 It feels like there's an optimal time to do it, and then there's, it's a little harder

00:14:29.940 after that, but possible, right?

00:14:32.160 So I think the conversation is about when to do it.

00:14:35.820 Not if, because it's going to happen.

00:14:39.340 It's either going to happen naturally during the term, it's going to happen effectively

00:14:43.580 because everybody will assume that Harris is running the show, but it's going to happen.

00:14:49.960 So I think it's possible that having nobody from the campaign talk about anything could

00:14:57.080 be a risk management decision in which they know that anything they say today could make

00:15:02.940 things worse, but there's nothing that could have been said yesterday on the news in terms

00:15:08.000 of having your surrogates talking to the news.

00:15:11.420 There's nothing that could have made it better.

00:15:13.180 Because whatever happens with a shakeup of the ticket would be, you know, a nuclear bomb

00:15:20.240 of news that would make anything that happened on Sunday unimportant, unless it was a mistake.

00:15:26.980 So the fact that they are playing to not make a mistake that aggressively tells me something's

00:15:35.800 coming.

00:15:37.400 There's a little extra coming.

00:15:39.060 And they're at least talking about it.

00:15:42.020 I'm not predicting that they'll make the change at the convention.

00:15:45.400 I'm predicting that that's the conversation they're having.

00:15:49.020 All right.

00:15:50.980 I did a little poll in which I asked people if they thought the Black Lives Movement protests

00:15:58.040 were making things better or worse for black Americans.

00:16:02.000 Now, most of the people who answered it were probably people who were Trump supporters, probably

00:16:09.240 more male, probably more white, 80% white, something like that.

00:16:15.640 Because that's just who follows me on Twitter.

00:16:18.540 It's not my fault.

00:16:20.900 Don't blame me.

00:16:22.380 I'm not the one who decides who follows me.

00:16:25.480 I'm just telling you that that's who follows me.

00:16:27.320 If you don't think that's diverse enough, I can't help it. 1.00

00:16:30.980 But anyway, I think something like 83%, I didn't check it recently, said that the protests

00:16:41.440 are making it worse for black people in the United States.

00:16:45.920 Now, you might say to yourself, well, why are you asking a bunch of white people if this

00:16:50.320 is making it worse for black people?

00:16:51.920 Well, that's exactly the group to ask if you want to see how the people who might have prejudice

00:16:58.320 are feeling.

00:17:01.200 Because black people are not trying to convince other black people that they should get more 0.86

00:17:06.860 respect, resources, etc.

00:17:08.780 They're trying to convince the very kind of people who answered my poll.

00:17:12.700 So that is the group you want to hear from.

00:17:14.420 How do you feel about this segment of society now that they've expressed a, let's say, the

00:17:21.780 Black Lives Matter protests, etc.

00:17:24.780 have been expressed the way they have been expressed.

00:17:27.800 And if you get 83% or somewhere in that neighborhood saying it made things worse for black people,

00:17:35.040 I think that probably did.

00:17:37.480 And here's how I think it's worse.

00:17:39.420 I think the, I hate to use this word, but you know what I'm talking about.

00:17:43.480 The brand for black America, I think, is ruined for a while.

00:17:50.680 It might take 10 years to recover that.

00:17:53.580 Because it's such a bad look, because it's paired with looting and paired with pictures

00:17:59.540 of destruction and violence, etc.

00:18:01.900 Because all those things are paired, it's just become a terrible look.

00:18:05.920 And then the Black Lives Matter leaders saying stuff such as, the looting is reparations.

00:18:11.400 I don't know how you could do a worse thing to the public you're trying to help.

00:18:17.620 I mean, really?

00:18:18.880 If black people in America thought that something like real reparations could be possible, would 1.00

00:18:25.700 you want your, let's say, people who present themselves as leaders, the Black Lives Matter

00:18:32.000 leaders and organizers, would you want them saying that the looting was reparations?

00:18:37.160 That's exactly what you'd want them not to say.

00:18:39.720 Because that just took it right off the table.

00:18:43.120 You know, I was sort of pro-looking into reparations, at least having, you know, having a legitimate

00:18:50.120 conversation about what could and could not be done, given constraints.

00:18:54.480 I was all for that.

00:18:56.120 I'm all for any conversation.

00:18:57.860 And I think that that was, you know, worth having.

00:19:00.900 But not now.

00:19:01.780 Now, now it would just be a waste of time.

00:19:04.500 I wouldn't spend one minute talking about reparations.

00:19:08.420 You know, I'd wait another 10 years before bringing that up.

00:19:15.820 So I think things are worse for reparations.

00:19:18.800 They're certainly worse for racial harmony. 0.99

00:19:22.120 And I think it's going to have the biggest impact on employment.

00:19:26.340 I think Black employment is going to take a hit.

00:19:29.040 Because a lot of people are going to say, you know, I just don't want somebody who feels

00:19:33.480 bad about me.

00:19:35.160 So it won't even be a question that the employer feels bad about the employee.

00:19:39.400 They'll just say, why would I hire somebody I think might have a bad attitude about me?

00:19:46.940 You know, and that would be fair.

00:19:50.720 I don't know if it would be legal, but it would certainly be reasonable to not hire people.

00:19:55.320 You have a high, likely, a high degree of certainty that they don't like you.

00:20:01.680 All right.

00:20:03.360 And of course, Black Lives Matter has their priorities upside down, which is the worst thing. 0.98

00:20:07.440 They're focusing on the police element of it, which, you know, needs a look.

00:20:15.760 I'm not saying that you should brush that aside.

00:20:18.480 There's something real that needs to be looked at there and made better.

00:20:22.580 But it is also their lowest priority, or should be, because it affects the fewest people.

00:20:28.520 Highest priority, of course, is the teachers' unions, which are the source of ongoing systemic racism.

00:20:36.480 So if Black Lives Matter can't even fight systemic racism right, they're going after the lowest priority instead of the highest priority, the teachers' unions, it's hard to give them any credibility.

00:20:50.460 So I think they're way behind.

00:20:53.460 So CNN News is about QAnon, because that embarrasses the president, and about the U.S. Postal Service being actually quite dependable.

00:21:04.680 So CNN is trying to brainwash the country into thinking mail service is dependable.

00:21:12.920 Let me ask you this.

00:21:15.240 Have you ever had somebody else's mail delivered to your mailbox?

00:21:20.640 I think you have.

00:21:22.100 I think you have.

00:21:22.880 Have you ever mailed anything that didn't get to its destination?

00:21:29.760 Oh, I think you have.

00:21:31.280 Has anybody ever mailed something to you that you didn't get?

00:21:35.960 Oh, I think you have.

00:21:37.480 You've had that experience?

00:21:40.040 I mentioned before my father worked for the post office for 30 years.

00:21:43.600 Every night he would come home, and over dinner, he would complain about some post office inefficiency.

00:21:50.240 So I'm as biased as you could possibly be about the efficiency of the post office.

00:21:55.380 Let me tell you one other little anecdote.

00:21:57.880 Back in the days when I would draw the comic strip Dilbert on paper, and I would take a copy of it and mail the original to my syndicator,

00:22:07.280 who would then take copies and send it off to the newspapers.

00:22:09.580 Well, what happens once the post office, where you mail your originals, what happens once they figure out your name?

00:22:18.040 What happened after they recognized my name and realized I was the Dilbert creator,

00:22:23.940 and I was sending a package that was about the size of original art?

00:22:29.220 What do you think happened to my original art?

00:22:32.820 Stolen.

00:22:34.280 Yeah, stolen.

00:22:34.960 Was I the only cartoonist who put original art in the mail, and once the post office realized who was mailing it, they stole it?

00:22:44.920 Nope.

00:22:46.380 It happened to other cartoonists.

00:22:48.340 I'm not going to name names, but there's a well-known cartoonist who couldn't mail his work because the post office stole it every time.

00:22:58.800 Now, I once had these years before there were GoFundMes.

00:23:05.140 I wrote a story about somebody who was having trouble on a newsletter I used to do years and years ago.

00:23:11.260 And I think I asked people to, I don't know, send, if they wanted to donate to this person who was in a bad situation,

00:23:19.700 they could send money to this post office box.

00:23:21.760 Now, what I didn't realize is that people wouldn't send it necessarily checks.

00:23:27.640 So something like 80% of the people who send some money to that post office box put cash.

00:23:33.980 They put cash in it.

00:23:35.760 Now, of course, they tried to disguise it.

00:23:38.860 You know, you put paper around the cash or whatever.

00:23:40.820 But as soon as the post office realized that any cash, there must have been at least one that you could sort of tell there was a dollar in there or something.

00:23:49.900 As soon as the postal employees realized that the mail going to this one post office box had cash in it,

00:23:56.820 how much of the cash got through after the day that they realized it was cash?

00:24:01.900 None.

00:24:03.040 None.

00:24:03.400 They stole every bit of it.

00:24:05.300 You know, there were like empty envelopes that would show up and it just like stopped one day.

00:24:11.220 The moment they realized it was cash, they stole it all.

00:24:14.760 So the Democrats are trying to sell you the most ridiculous notion that the post office could take a 30% hit to their traffic.

00:24:25.520 And given the current amount of efficiency, that we would have something like a credible election that way.

00:24:33.140 There is not really any chance of having a credible election with massive mail-in votes.

00:24:39.880 It's just not a thing.

00:24:41.260 And it doesn't matter who wins.

00:24:43.360 It doesn't even matter what happens.

00:24:45.480 It is not credible by its, as a system.

00:24:50.720 In other words, there's nothing you can do.

00:24:52.920 Between now and then, there's just nothing you can do.

00:24:55.400 There's not enough time.

00:24:56.220 Now, let me test out a, I need you to fact check this for me.

00:25:03.980 I saw a claim that you can tell by the barcode and some codes on the outside of your ballot if you're a Republican or a Democrat.

00:25:14.560 Can somebody confirm that that's true or not true?

00:25:17.420 And the claim is that under the barcode, there's this, what looks like a long series of random numbers and letters.

00:25:25.880 But one of the letters is either a D or an R indicating whether you're registered Democrat or Republican.

00:25:33.300 I don't know if that's true.

00:25:35.840 Can somebody fact check that for me?

00:25:38.120 Because again, remember the rule.

00:25:40.280 If something's a little bit too on the nose, it's probably not true.

00:25:44.200 So if you hear that the mail-in ballots have some kind of indicator on it, a subtle one, but if you knew what it was, you could look for it,

00:25:54.800 that the indicator will tell you if you're a Democrat or Republican, that is too on the nose.

00:26:00.920 Meaning, if that's true, well, that would be amazing.

00:26:05.560 So usually things that, if they're true, well, that would be amazing, are usually not true.

00:26:10.080 So somebody needs to confirm that this is true to me before I will believe it.

00:26:15.700 But there's a report out there that you can tell just by looking at the envelope.

00:26:19.540 If that's true, there's really no chance of a fair election.

00:26:24.760 No chance.

00:26:26.960 Oh, and this is the funniest part.

00:26:30.100 If you want to know how dumb the post office is,

00:26:32.540 and again, I can say this because my father worked for the post office and he was one of the dumbest guys I've ever known.

00:26:42.160 True story.

00:26:43.140 I hate to say that.

00:26:44.640 He's no longer with us, so I can say that.

00:26:48.880 But the postal union decided to endorse Biden.

00:26:57.760 That's right.

00:26:58.460 While we're having this big national debate about whether the post office can be a major element of a fair election,

00:27:07.420 the postal union just endorsed one of the people running.

00:27:12.760 Now, that should have been the end of it.

00:27:15.040 The moment the postal union endorsed one of the candidates,

00:27:19.200 that was the point when the Democrats should have said,

00:27:22.260 oh, okay, that really just changes everything.

00:27:24.980 I see we can't use this system anymore because now it's not only bias, but it's announced a bias.

00:27:33.460 They announced a bias.

00:27:37.040 That's really the end of it.

00:27:38.940 If we were any kind of a competent country, we would just say,

00:27:43.340 oh, well, there's still a debate about whether it could be done fairly,

00:27:47.280 but there's no longer a debate about whether it can be seen as credible.

00:27:51.180 And if you think those are the same debate, they're not.

00:27:55.600 So let me say that again because it's the most important thing.

00:27:58.380 There's a debate about whether it can be accurate,

00:28:02.060 and that's separate from whether the public can ever see it as credible.

00:28:07.720 And once the postal union has picked a side,

00:28:12.300 that's it.

00:28:14.420 That's the end of any real chance it could be seen as credible.

00:28:18.400 It can't be.

00:28:20.220 Because the people delivering the damn mail just told you who they want to win.

00:28:25.520 I don't think it could be any clearer than that,

00:28:28.260 that you can't overcome that hurdle.

00:28:31.280 That is a mountain that no amount of hard work can overcome.

00:28:36.000 You can do anything you want.

00:28:38.100 You could put a trillion dollars into making sure that the actual mail delivery was accurate.

00:28:45.800 It would make no difference at this point

00:28:48.820 because the postal union picked a preferred candidate.

00:28:54.220 It's over.

00:28:55.400 This question is absolutely over,

00:28:58.940 but the fake news will try to conflate those two things

00:29:03.100 and act like the credibility and the actual performance are really the same thing.

00:29:09.700 And then there's another bit of magic where they have to act as though

00:29:12.600 the post office does a good job.

00:29:17.400 Now, as somebody who is bad at analogies said on Twitter,

00:29:22.060 oh, sure, because, by the way, you can tell that this is a Democrat talking

00:29:27.420 because they only use sarcasm instead of reasons.

00:29:30.880 So don't look for the reason.

00:29:33.480 It's just sarcasm.

00:29:34.980 Oh, sure.

00:29:36.720 We don't trust the post office to deliver the ballots,

00:29:41.520 but we do trust it for our Social Security checks.

00:29:45.720 Well, I think they do those electronically.

00:29:47.840 But we do trust it for all of our important other stuff.

00:29:51.780 Oh, no.

00:29:52.600 The only important thing we don't trust it for is the election.

00:29:56.560 Yeah, all these other important things we trust it for.

00:29:59.200 Just not this one thing, right?

00:30:02.220 So that's a Democrat argument.

00:30:03.860 It doesn't say anything.

00:30:04.940 It just says it in that tone.

00:30:06.800 So there's no actual thinking or rational anything.

00:30:09.760 It's just that tone.

00:30:10.880 Now, here's what's wrong with it, of course.

00:30:13.160 If somebody sends you a check and you don't get it

00:30:16.680 because it got lost in the mail or it comes a few days late,

00:30:20.280 that doesn't change too much, does it?

00:30:22.500 There isn't too much that's going to go wrong

00:30:26.480 if your check is a couple days late or even if it gets lost.

00:30:30.420 You can always call the person who lost it, as I have.

00:30:34.360 Let me tell you how many times that I've not gotten a check

00:30:38.440 that was mailed to me.

00:30:39.840 25 times?

00:30:43.300 Maybe in the course of my professional life,

00:30:46.480 something like 25 times I've had to put a stop on a check

00:30:51.900 or ask somebody to put a stop on a check

00:30:54.140 because the mail didn't deliver it.

00:30:55.820 Probably 25 times.

00:30:57.060 And so the next thing that the news will try to convince you

00:31:04.000 is that they're actually good when you have a time constraint.

00:31:09.660 So the reason these analogies are not appropriate

00:31:12.040 is because these are low-risk things

00:31:15.380 that don't have a timing element to them,

00:31:17.660 whereas the election is the highest of all risk.

00:31:20.760 It's literally the highest risk in the country.

00:31:23.280 If you get that wrong, everything else falls apart.

00:31:27.060 It doesn't matter what you're doing right with your economy,

00:31:31.280 anything else.

00:31:32.800 If the election doesn't hold as credible,

00:31:35.360 everything else falls apart.

00:31:36.940 It's all dependent on that.

00:31:38.880 That's the way the system is designed.

00:31:42.400 So we're going to have a non-credible result,

00:31:46.120 and the news will try to convince us that it was credible.

00:31:48.980 It's the most amazing act of brainwashing you'll ever see.

00:31:54.640 All right.

00:31:57.060 Oh, so you notice that there are riots

00:32:02.780 and massive shootings and gun deaths and stuff

00:32:06.480 in, I guess, Chicago and Portland and Seattle.

00:32:11.560 I don't know if New York is still doing it.

00:32:13.700 And they're getting pretty violent and terrible.

00:32:15.380 And every day that they go on,

00:32:17.700 Trump gets closer to election.

00:32:20.220 Because Trump has played this perfectly

00:32:23.020 from a political perspective.

00:32:25.680 You could argue about, you know, functionally.

00:32:28.600 But from a political perspective,

00:32:30.660 the best thing Trump could have done

00:32:32.780 is continuously offer federal help

00:32:36.760 and let the cities decline it.

00:32:39.040 And then, once they've declined it,

00:32:43.000 allow that to stand.

00:32:45.360 Not overrule them.

00:32:46.620 Now, the minor exception

00:32:47.920 was federal people protecting federal property.

00:32:51.200 But that's an exception.

00:32:52.140 That's federal property.

00:32:53.420 So, by Trump not acting like a dictator,

00:32:58.020 in other words, not sending in troops

00:33:00.060 and overriding the cities and the states,

00:33:04.040 he looks very much not like a dictator.

00:33:06.820 And it makes the other side,

00:33:08.900 the Democrats running these riot-torn cities,

00:33:12.140 look like, well, do you want more of that?

00:33:14.820 Because that's what they want to bring you nationally.

00:33:17.280 I mean, if I were the Trump campaign,

00:33:18.760 I would do nothing but show video from the riots

00:33:20.960 and say, this is what they want to bring to you nationally.

00:33:24.180 Because, you know,

00:33:25.200 that's not even a little bit wrong.

00:33:28.020 That's not even a slight bit of hyperbole.

00:33:30.940 What you're seeing in the inner cities

00:33:32.700 is exactly what you would get everywhere

00:33:35.480 if those same kinds of policies were taken nationally.

00:33:39.440 Same kind of policies,

00:33:40.900 in this case, being soft on crime.

00:33:46.600 CNN has managed to disappear.

00:33:49.160 All of the riots,

00:33:50.100 like it's like they don't exist.

00:33:52.520 And also the Clinesmith stuff.

00:33:55.260 So the country is having, like,

00:33:57.380 these big riots every night.

00:33:59.880 And there was a coup that we now know,

00:34:02.500 you know, at least one of the central players

00:34:05.400 of this coup, this Clinesmith guy.

00:34:08.020 And that's sort of not treated as news.

00:34:12.620 Not really news.

00:34:14.000 The Millie Weaver thing,

00:34:19.400 I haven't gotten interested in yet.

00:34:21.060 I guess that's been removed.

00:34:22.780 So I guess that's, let's say,

00:34:26.660 contentious, contentious?

00:34:29.560 No.

00:34:30.340 Some debatable reporting there.

00:34:32.480 So I don't know what the truth is on any of that.

00:34:34.540 Here, let me see if I can clear something up

00:34:41.200 that a few times I've made some Twitter comments

00:34:43.860 that were incomplete and therefore misleading.

00:34:47.240 And it goes like this.

00:34:48.400 Why is it that the George Floyd story

00:34:50.720 is a national story,

00:34:53.560 whereas the five-year-old

00:34:56.940 or the toddler or whatever he was

00:34:58.380 who was killed by his neighbor

00:35:00.660 while he was just in his own front yard,

00:35:04.800 why is one of them a national story

00:35:06.620 and the other is ignored

00:35:07.680 because Fox News and others are trying to say,

00:35:11.140 hey, what about this story?

00:35:12.880 Is it only because the victim was white?

00:35:15.700 And here's what the public doesn't understand

00:35:18.940 about what makes a national story.

00:35:21.200 Now, I deal with trying to turn things

00:35:24.880 that are not stories into national stories.

00:35:28.280 That's actually my job.

00:35:30.420 So if I'm trying to get my book promoted,

00:35:32.860 and let's say it was the original Dilbert books,

00:35:36.060 I would tie them to a national story,

00:35:38.160 which is, hey, there's lots of downsizing

00:35:40.460 and offshoring back in the 90s.

00:35:42.880 And here's a character that has the same situation.

00:35:46.180 So Dilbert got on the cover of magazines, et cetera,

00:35:49.740 because I did what everybody does

00:35:51.720 when they want to elevate an individual story.

00:35:55.240 They attach it to something that's already a story.

00:35:58.720 You can't make a story out of nothing.

00:36:01.280 It's really hard.

00:36:02.400 But you can attach anecdotes to existing stories,

00:36:06.260 and then they get some attention.

00:36:07.840 So the George Floyd thing was attached to a national story.

00:36:13.680 You can argue whether it was a true or false story,

00:36:18.140 but you can't argue that it was a national high-level story

00:36:21.540 about black citizens being abused by cops.

00:36:25.480 So because it was already a story,

00:36:28.520 any video especially,

00:36:29.920 and it's the video that makes it extra, extra strong.

00:36:33.300 It's not the video alone.

00:36:34.980 It still could have been a story without the video,

00:36:37.040 but I think you'd all agree the video gave it that extra power.

00:36:39.960 So I think I said on Twitter it has to be on video.

00:36:43.980 Let me adjust that to say it doesn't have to be on video,

00:36:47.940 but it's way, way, way stronger if it is.

00:36:52.200 So the problem with the child who was killed by the neighbor

00:36:55.660 is that it does not attach to any national story.

00:36:59.120 And when the conservative side of the world tried to do that

00:37:02.180 and say, hey, hey, this is a story too,

00:37:05.220 why are you ignoring it?

00:37:06.420 Why are you being hypocrites?

00:37:07.840 They weren't.

00:37:08.620 But they weren't being hypocrites

00:37:10.640 because the child who was killed,

00:37:12.620 as tragic as that is,

00:37:14.380 and unique in its way, in a bad way,

00:37:18.420 it just doesn't attach to a national story.

00:37:22.120 But suppose the Democrats had run that same story.

00:37:26.780 It would have been a gun control story.

00:37:30.000 A gun control story, right? 0.54

00:37:32.680 It would have been a story about there are too many guns

00:37:35.820 and therefore look what happened,

00:37:37.420 this kid got shot.

00:37:38.620 But, because the races were the wrong races, 0.91

00:37:42.620 it doesn't fit in with the Black Lives Matter story,

00:37:46.260 it doesn't fit in with the protesters,

00:37:48.580 so places like CNN would be disinclined

00:37:51.740 to attach it to a national story about gun control

00:37:55.200 because it would work against their other propaganda.

00:37:57.840 Now, that part's true.

00:37:59.360 But, if you're a conservative,

00:38:02.380 I wouldn't try too hard,

00:38:04.080 yeah, his name is Cannon Hittnet,

00:38:08.140 if that's the right name.

00:38:10.340 So, I wouldn't try too hard to get this attached to a national story

00:38:16.740 if you're a conservative,

00:38:17.980 because it's going to get attached to gun control.

00:38:20.800 Now, you might say to yourself,

00:38:23.160 but wait, Scott,

00:38:24.080 what about the national story of black-on-white murder?

00:38:29.140 What about that?

00:38:30.720 Because, and I looked that up,

00:38:32.120 just to see what the stats are on that.

00:38:35.320 And I think it's something like,

00:38:38.740 like,

00:38:39.960 I actually have those stats.

00:38:41.160 And it's always hard to find stats

00:38:45.100 when you're talking in public

00:38:46.700 and looking for your stats.

00:38:47.920 You can never find your stats.

00:38:49.680 How the hell did I not find that?

00:38:51.760 Oh, here it is.

00:38:53.120 There are more than twice as many black-on-white homicides

00:38:58.580 compared to white-on-black.

00:39:01.240 So, the black population is 13% of the country.

00:39:05.740 White is 80-something percent. 0.74

00:39:08.060 But they have roughly equal number of crimes against the other.

00:39:14.780 Which would mean that the black-on-white crime

00:39:17.780 as a percentage would be sky high.

00:39:22.020 Now, why is that not a national story?

00:39:24.960 Do you ever ask yourself that?

00:39:26.740 Why is it not a national story

00:39:28.240 that white people are being slaughtered by black people?

00:39:32.080 Now, I use the word slaughtered to get myself canceled

00:39:36.540 because that's the part that will be taken out of context.

00:39:39.660 That's a lot of murder.

00:39:41.440 There's a lot of murder going on.

00:39:45.460 What is the, what is the,

00:39:46.860 yeah, it can't be 80%.

00:39:47.940 What's the percentage of,

00:39:49.680 oh, you know what it does?

00:39:50.760 I think in the stats,

00:39:52.880 the Hispanic population was added

00:39:55.100 to the standard white population.

00:39:59.040 So, I think in the,

00:40:00.280 when they do the stats,

00:40:01.280 they're adding Hispanic and white together

00:40:03.420 as one category.

00:40:04.440 So, then it gets into the 80s.

00:40:08.240 Not that you would do that necessarily,

00:40:10.000 but that's what it is.

00:40:12.300 So, ask yourself,

00:40:14.280 why is that not a national story?

00:40:16.220 Now, of course,

00:40:17.220 you can explain it by income,

00:40:19.360 income groups and stuff like that.

00:40:23.460 But, it is not a story

00:40:25.460 that you could tell without getting canceled.

00:40:28.120 Could you imagine any national news program

00:40:30.640 doing a story about the epidemic

00:40:33.440 of black people killing white people?

00:40:36.120 You can't, really.

00:40:37.980 You can't even imagine it.

00:40:39.780 In this country, that can never happen.

00:40:42.000 And, because data can be used

00:40:45.380 to make any case you want,

00:40:47.560 you can simply reverse it and say,

00:40:49.040 oh, sure, but white people 0.86

00:40:51.460 are killing just as many black people.

00:40:53.480 So, you know, it's about equal.

00:40:56.680 Well, my point is

00:40:57.660 that we sort of decide

00:40:59.940 what the story is

00:41:01.080 and then things get attached to it.

00:41:03.120 But, it's the national press

00:41:04.160 that decides what's the story.

00:41:05.940 And, they have decided

00:41:06.780 that it's not good

00:41:07.460 for their personal careers

00:41:08.780 to emphasize any racial disparity in crime.

00:41:12.700 And, so they don't.

00:41:13.580 And, so, therefore,

00:41:15.100 that story of the tragic story

00:41:18.260 of the child who got murdered

00:41:19.540 by the neighbor

00:41:20.120 doesn't tie to a national story.

00:41:23.560 So, if you think you should,

00:41:26.900 that would be fair to say.

00:41:28.100 But, if you're wondering,

00:41:29.720 hey, why are these

00:41:30.560 being treated differently,

00:41:31.680 that's the reason.

00:41:32.920 It's just not tied to a national story.

00:41:35.120 And, that's the way it always works.

00:41:37.280 All right.

00:41:38.680 Coronavirus deaths.

00:41:39.900 I think there are over 175,000

00:41:41.820 for this country.

00:41:42.540 We predicted at least

00:41:44.820 another 24,000

00:41:46.640 in the coming month.

00:41:48.420 So, we will easily,

00:41:49.760 it looks like,

00:41:50.960 pass 200,000 dead.

00:41:53.900 That's a number

00:41:54.740 which I had asked people

00:41:55.960 who were saying

00:41:56.680 it's just the flu.

00:41:58.700 Early on, I'd said,

00:42:00.040 well, if you think

00:42:00.640 it's just the flu,

00:42:01.640 can you commit to a number

00:42:03.320 beyond which you'd say,

00:42:05.400 oh, God,

00:42:05.800 that wasn't just the flu.

00:42:07.940 And, one of the,

00:42:09.600 one of the,

00:42:10.540 what would I say,

00:42:11.440 coronavirus,

00:42:13.220 I don't want to say skeptic,

00:42:15.000 but skeptic in terms

00:42:16.040 of how bad it would be,

00:42:17.700 had said 200,000

00:42:20.380 would be the number

00:42:21.380 at which you'd say,

00:42:22.160 okay,

00:42:23.100 all right,

00:42:23.600 for 200,000 deaths,

00:42:25.300 that's definitely

00:42:25.960 not the flu,

00:42:27.400 especially since

00:42:28.340 the 200,000

00:42:29.260 you only got to

00:42:30.140 because of the close down

00:42:32.020 and the severe punishment

00:42:33.500 of the economy.

00:42:34.200 So,

00:42:37.260 does anybody still argue

00:42:39.460 it's just the flu?

00:42:42.660 Has that population

00:42:44.060 of people now

00:42:44.980 shrunk to the point

00:42:46.620 where it's a different

00:42:48.500 conversation?

00:42:49.720 A conversation about

00:42:50.560 how to handle it,

00:42:51.900 but not so much

00:42:53.120 that it's just the flu?

00:42:55.160 So, I don't know

00:42:55.900 if that transition

00:42:56.760 is going to happen,

00:42:57.460 but I don't hear

00:42:58.380 the just the flu people

00:42:59.660 being as loud

00:43:01.820 on social media anymore.

00:43:03.080 Speaking of statistics,

00:43:08.020 do you believe

00:43:08.700 that we will ever know,

00:43:10.240 no matter when,

00:43:11.680 at any date in the future,

00:43:13.300 whether the U.S.

00:43:14.440 did worse

00:43:15.160 or better

00:43:15.820 than other countries?

00:43:17.880 Do you think

00:43:18.260 we'll ever know that?

00:43:19.500 If you said yes,

00:43:21.020 oh yeah,

00:43:21.380 we'll definitely know.

00:43:22.240 I mean,

00:43:22.480 once it's all done,

00:43:23.940 we'll look at the data,

00:43:25.240 lots of researchers

00:43:26.000 will dig in,

00:43:26.960 they'll find out

00:43:27.500 what worked,

00:43:28.140 what didn't,

00:43:29.060 and we will know

00:43:30.000 if President Trump

00:43:31.660 did a good job

00:43:32.580 compared to the other leaders.

00:43:34.760 If you believe

00:43:35.720 that can be known,

00:43:37.640 you've never been involved

00:43:38.920 in this kind of work,

00:43:40.380 meaning data analysis

00:43:41.880 of any kind.

00:43:42.980 We can't know that.

00:43:44.520 It is completely unknowable,

00:43:46.560 unless it was some

00:43:47.460 major obvious thing

00:43:48.920 that anybody could tell.

00:43:50.620 But if you tried to

00:43:51.960 suss it out of the data,

00:43:54.260 and the only thing

00:43:54.980 you're doing is saying,

00:43:55.680 I'm not going to look at,

00:43:56.840 I'm not going to look at

00:43:57.880 the decisions you made,

00:43:59.040 I'm just going to see

00:43:59.640 how it turned out.

00:44:00.500 you're never going

00:44:03.120 to be able to do it.

00:44:04.000 And here's why.

00:44:05.680 Would it be most appropriate,

00:44:07.480 I saw this yesterday,

00:44:08.840 for the U.S.

00:44:10.560 as a whole

00:44:11.420 to be compared

00:44:12.680 to the other

00:44:13.700 wealthy countries?

00:44:15.220 Would that be

00:44:15.680 a good comparison?

00:44:17.640 Well,

00:44:18.200 I would argue

00:44:19.020 that you need

00:44:19.760 to take the islands

00:44:20.820 out of it.

00:44:22.100 I think you need

00:44:22.760 to take your

00:44:23.440 Taiwans,

00:44:24.780 your South Korea,

00:44:25.740 which is effectively

00:44:26.560 an island

00:44:27.060 because of the DMZ,

00:44:27.960 your New Zealands,

00:44:32.200 and maybe

00:44:33.240 your Australia,

00:44:34.140 that's a pretty

00:44:35.060 big island,

00:44:35.920 but I think

00:44:37.880 you need to look

00:44:38.380 at the islands

00:44:38.900 separately,

00:44:40.000 and say,

00:44:40.460 okay,

00:44:40.700 these have the most

00:44:41.520 in common

00:44:42.080 with each other

00:44:42.760 because of the island

00:44:44.320 element of it,

00:44:45.660 and see how

00:44:46.140 the islands did.

00:44:47.740 So,

00:44:48.260 if you're throwing

00:44:48.820 the islands in

00:44:49.700 with wealthy countries,

00:44:50.980 well,

00:44:51.320 already,

00:44:52.580 that result

00:44:53.240 is less credible.

00:44:54.760 That's just one problem.

00:44:56.020 Here's some more.

00:44:56.560 the United States

00:44:58.600 is really

00:44:59.100 50 different

00:45:00.200 entities,

00:45:01.860 52 if you count

00:45:03.300 Puerto Rico

00:45:04.480 and Guam

00:45:05.160 or whatever.

00:45:07.760 So,

00:45:08.520 should we say

00:45:10.340 that the average

00:45:11.300 of all those

00:45:12.580 entities

00:45:12.960 is what the

00:45:13.880 United States is,

00:45:15.040 or should we

00:45:15.940 treat each

00:45:16.500 of the states

00:45:17.260 like a country

00:45:19.280 and say,

00:45:19.880 all right,

00:45:20.680 how did New York

00:45:21.580 State do

00:45:22.240 compared to Europe?

00:45:25.020 Right?

00:45:25.520 Because actually,

00:45:26.500 New York State's

00:45:27.060 doing pretty well.

00:45:28.220 You know,

00:45:28.380 they had a tough spot.

00:45:30.000 It wasn't their fault

00:45:30.820 for the most part.

00:45:32.080 You could argue

00:45:32.620 about the

00:45:33.100 old people 0.85

00:45:37.140 being put back

00:45:38.860 in their

00:45:39.400 senior care places.

00:45:41.000 That looks like

00:45:41.820 a mistake in hindsight.

00:45:43.580 I don't know

00:45:44.240 if it was

00:45:44.760 as obvious

00:45:45.800 when it happened.

00:45:46.620 Obviously,

00:45:47.120 it wasn't obviously

00:45:48.320 a mistake

00:45:48.740 when it happened.

00:45:49.280 But,

00:45:52.420 wouldn't we find,

00:45:53.760 for example,

00:45:54.380 that we have,

00:45:55.040 let's say,

00:45:55.740 just guessing,

00:45:56.940 probably more than

00:45:57.860 40 states

00:45:59.000 who are doing

00:46:00.280 better than

00:46:01.120 Europe?

00:46:02.920 Would that be true?

00:46:04.680 Would we have

00:46:05.400 40 of our states

00:46:06.720 doing better than

00:46:07.440 Europe?

00:46:08.560 Maybe.

00:46:09.360 But then those

00:46:10.020 European countries

00:46:10.820 would say,

00:46:11.340 wait, wait, wait.

00:46:12.320 If you get to

00:46:13.200 cherry-pick your states,

00:46:15.200 we're going to say,

00:46:16.100 if you take,

00:46:17.280 just pick a random

00:46:18.300 thing.

00:46:19.200 All right,

00:46:20.360 we'll do the same

00:46:20.920 thing.

00:46:21.560 We'll take

00:46:21.980 Frankfurt out

00:46:22.820 of our equation.

00:46:23.840 I'm just guessing

00:46:24.640 that Frankfurt

00:46:25.300 had bad

00:46:26.060 coronavirus.

00:46:26.840 I don't know

00:46:27.140 if it did.

00:46:28.120 We'll just take

00:46:28.660 that out of our

00:46:29.220 equation.

00:46:29.620 How about that?

00:46:30.260 And then we

00:46:30.680 beat you again.

00:46:31.860 So basically,

00:46:32.820 everybody who

00:46:33.480 wants to look good

00:46:34.460 is going to have

00:46:35.120 an argument,

00:46:35.820 well,

00:46:36.480 don't count

00:46:37.340 the senior

00:46:39.060 care places.

00:46:40.400 You have to

00:46:40.760 take those out.

00:46:41.660 That was just

00:46:42.240 tragic.

00:46:44.300 But if you're

00:46:45.020 really going to

00:46:45.520 compare,

00:46:45.940 that was just

00:46:46.960 one event

00:46:47.740 that had a

00:46:48.400 big impact,

00:46:49.300 you can't

00:46:49.520 take that

00:46:49.940 out.

00:46:50.820 So people

00:46:51.320 argue about

00:46:51.960 whether that

00:46:52.380 should be

00:46:52.680 in or out,

00:46:53.400 whether the

00:46:53.820 states should

00:46:54.260 be compared,

00:46:55.580 whether you're

00:46:56.340 on the same

00:46:56.860 curve,

00:46:57.400 we don't

00:46:57.740 know.

00:46:58.640 And then,

00:47:00.300 here's the

00:47:02.040 thing that's

00:47:02.980 so completely

00:47:03.940 unknowable,

00:47:05.100 and the thing

00:47:05.600 that's going to

00:47:06.060 drive me

00:47:06.560 freaking crazy

00:47:07.560 for the next

00:47:08.060 five years.

00:47:09.140 And it goes

00:47:09.640 like this.

00:47:10.260 As far

00:47:11.520 as I can

00:47:12.040 tell, 0.94

00:47:13.680 Sweden did 0.80

00:47:14.520 the dumbest

00:47:15.420 strategy,

00:47:17.100 and it

00:47:17.900 worked out

00:47:18.440 the best.

00:47:20.540 Now,

00:47:21.260 that,

00:47:21.880 of course,

00:47:22.600 creates a

00:47:23.180 situation where

00:47:24.040 you can say

00:47:24.580 that they

00:47:24.980 didn't have a

00:47:25.660 good strategy,

00:47:26.680 or that they

00:47:27.440 did.

00:47:28.000 You can just

00:47:28.600 spit it any

00:47:29.580 way you want.

00:47:30.680 So here's why

00:47:31.300 it was the

00:47:31.740 dumbest plan.

00:47:33.080 When Sweden

00:47:33.980 went for

00:47:34.680 herd immunity,

00:47:35.840 the assumption

00:47:36.640 was they'd have

00:47:37.360 to get to

00:47:37.780 60 or 70%

00:47:39.340 infection.

00:47:41.040 Turns out,

00:47:42.660 it's probably

00:47:43.120 closer to

00:47:43.740 20,

00:47:44.580 because people

00:47:45.260 seem to have

00:47:45.740 some natural

00:47:46.380 immunity.

00:47:47.820 And if

00:47:49.000 Sweden had

00:47:49.600 known it

00:47:50.140 was going

00:47:50.480 to be

00:47:50.720 20,

00:47:51.600 well,

00:47:51.940 they're

00:47:52.080 geniuses.

00:47:53.560 Oh,

00:47:54.000 they're

00:47:54.180 geniuses.

00:47:55.920 We'll talk

00:47:56.400 about Italy

00:47:56.880 in a second.

00:47:59.420 But,

00:48:00.640 but Sweden,

00:48:04.380 thinking that

00:48:05.280 they were

00:48:05.560 heading toward

00:48:06.140 herd immunity

00:48:06.780 of 60 or

00:48:07.580 70%,

00:48:08.220 which was

00:48:09.320 by any

00:48:09.880 measure would

00:48:10.620 have been

00:48:10.940 quite a big

00:48:12.120 death toll,

00:48:13.140 probably would

00:48:13.560 have crashed

00:48:14.080 their health

00:48:14.640 care system.

00:48:16.400 They probably

00:48:17.200 would have

00:48:17.480 ended up

00:48:17.920 closing more

00:48:18.600 stuff.

00:48:19.480 They would

00:48:19.700 have had to

00:48:20.020 more aggressively

00:48:20.700 close down

00:48:21.440 because the

00:48:21.860 public would

00:48:22.320 say too

00:48:23.300 many people

00:48:23.740 are dying

00:48:24.220 or health

00:48:24.640 care is

00:48:24.940 dying.

00:48:25.980 So if

00:48:26.260 Sweden's

00:48:27.320 plan had

00:48:27.840 worked the

00:48:28.340 way they

00:48:28.840 thought it

00:48:29.320 would work,

00:48:31.000 here's the

00:48:31.480 key part.

00:48:32.420 If Sweden's 0.88

00:48:33.280 plan had

00:48:33.900 worked the

00:48:34.860 way Sweden

00:48:35.680 thought it

00:48:36.280 would work,

00:48:36.780 if it had

00:48:37.620 gone exactly

00:48:38.340 the way

00:48:38.700 they wanted

00:48:39.140 it to,

00:48:40.000 it would

00:48:40.360 have crashed

00:48:41.440 their whole

00:48:41.840 economy because

00:48:43.600 they thought

00:48:44.040 it was 60

00:48:44.600 to 70% for

00:48:45.700 herd immunity.

00:48:46.880 They got

00:48:47.780 incredibly

00:48:49.340 lucky, I

00:48:50.400 think.

00:48:51.540 Now, I

00:48:52.720 think we'll

00:48:53.100 probably have

00:48:53.440 to wait to

00:48:54.100 see if this

00:48:54.580 is real,

00:48:55.380 but the only

00:48:56.020 way that Sweden

00:48:56.680 got down to

00:48:57.440 basically something

00:48:59.040 like zero

00:48:59.660 deaths lately

00:49:00.800 is because

00:49:02.260 herd immunity

00:49:02.800 was a

00:49:03.720 fraction of

00:49:04.320 what everybody

00:49:04.860 thought.

00:49:06.200 Nobody knew

00:49:06.940 that.

00:49:08.000 They did

00:49:08.540 the dumbest

00:49:09.320 strategy and

00:49:10.960 hit a home

00:49:11.520 run.

00:49:12.120 It was like

00:49:12.700 they were

00:49:13.000 blindfolded and

00:49:14.500 they were up

00:49:14.860 to bat and

00:49:16.220 somebody threw

00:49:16.720 a ball and

00:49:17.220 they swung

00:49:17.700 really hard and

00:49:19.180 they hit the

00:49:19.620 freaking ball and

00:49:20.420 they got a

00:49:20.760 home run.

00:49:21.940 And it wasn't

00:49:22.560 because they

00:49:23.060 were good

00:49:23.440 batters.

00:49:24.120 They had a

00:49:24.500 blindfold on.

00:49:25.960 That's what

00:49:26.460 happened.

00:49:27.460 So it's going

00:49:28.260 to drive me

00:49:28.800 crazy that we

00:49:29.700 will ever be

00:49:30.380 compared to

00:49:30.960 Sweden.

00:49:31.380 It's like,

00:49:31.560 look how

00:49:32.260 smart Sweden

00:49:32.880 was.

00:49:33.920 No.

00:49:34.760 They were the

00:49:35.380 dumbest country

00:49:36.580 but they got

00:49:38.160 the luckiest.

00:49:39.520 That's what it

00:49:40.060 looks like to

00:49:40.540 me.

00:49:42.480 So if it

00:49:43.260 turns out that

00:49:43.900 20% is herd

00:49:44.920 immunity and

00:49:46.240 it also is

00:49:47.100 true that the

00:49:47.680 United States

00:49:48.440 has rampant

00:49:49.420 infections where

00:49:50.420 Europe does

00:49:51.000 not, who's

00:49:52.220 the smart

00:49:52.640 one?

00:49:54.280 Right?

00:49:55.140 Because now

00:49:55.800 we've seen

00:49:56.320 Sweden.

00:49:57.380 If we'd

00:49:58.180 never seen

00:49:58.780 Sweden hit

00:49:59.480 herd immunity,

00:50:00.140 we would

00:50:01.620 also think

00:50:02.200 it was 60

00:50:02.760 or 70%.

00:50:03.680 But now

00:50:04.540 that we

00:50:04.840 know it's

00:50:05.320 closer to

00:50:06.520 20% and

00:50:08.260 we know

00:50:08.640 that in

00:50:09.220 all likelihood,

00:50:10.000 I'm not

00:50:10.320 sure you can

00:50:10.720 say you

00:50:10.980 know anything,

00:50:11.700 but it

00:50:11.900 seems very

00:50:12.940 likely that

00:50:14.000 the reason

00:50:14.420 that New

00:50:14.800 York City

00:50:15.380 and New

00:50:15.760 York State

00:50:16.160 are doing

00:50:16.540 well is

00:50:17.620 that they

00:50:17.900 have so

00:50:18.260 many

00:50:18.460 infections

00:50:19.080 that they

00:50:20.420 got to

00:50:20.760 herd immunity.

00:50:22.200 And we

00:50:22.880 might be

00:50:23.440 the next

00:50:24.000 one who

00:50:24.420 hits herd

00:50:24.840 immunity

00:50:25.260 simply

00:50:26.260 because we

00:50:26.840 didn't control

00:50:27.460 it that

00:50:27.820 carefully.

00:50:28.480 Same as

00:50:28.980 Sweden.

00:50:30.280 So,

00:50:31.560 if it

00:50:32.240 turns out

00:50:32.840 that we

00:50:34.040 get back

00:50:34.660 to a

00:50:35.040 functioning

00:50:35.520 economy

00:50:36.200 and fewer

00:50:37.160 deaths

00:50:37.620 because we

00:50:38.860 hit herd

00:50:39.260 immunity

00:50:39.640 faster than

00:50:40.620 Europe,

00:50:41.380 who's the

00:50:41.860 smart one?

00:50:43.020 Would we

00:50:43.500 be the

00:50:43.840 smart one?

00:50:44.340 Because our

00:50:44.780 economy would

00:50:45.520 be kicking 0.53

00:50:46.000 back into

00:50:46.600 gear,

00:50:47.480 our deaths

00:50:48.040 would be

00:50:48.420 zero,

00:50:48.940 we'd be on

00:50:49.340 the other

00:50:49.620 side of

00:50:49.980 it,

00:50:50.220 like Sweden,

00:50:51.480 while Europe

00:50:52.340 is still

00:50:52.800 trying to

00:50:53.200 tamp down

00:50:53.700 every fire?

00:50:54.960 Oh,

00:50:55.120 no,

00:50:55.300 we better

00:50:55.500 close down

00:50:56.000 again,

00:50:56.400 better close

00:50:56.860 down again,

00:50:57.460 better close

00:50:57.920 down again,

00:50:58.360 and they're

00:50:59.140 going to

00:50:59.340 end up

00:50:59.660 in the

00:50:59.900 same

00:51:00.080 place.

00:51:02.180 So,

00:51:02.980 my basic

00:51:04.380 point is

00:51:05.140 that we

00:51:05.900 will never

00:51:06.380 know who

00:51:06.920 did better

00:51:07.380 than anybody

00:51:07.900 else,

00:51:08.400 because everybody

00:51:08.880 was guessing,

00:51:09.640 we all have

00:51:10.000 good hindsight,

00:51:11.280 none of the

00:51:11.780 data is

00:51:12.180 reliable,

00:51:13.000 and nobody

00:51:13.340 can decide

00:51:13.940 what two

00:51:14.460 things should

00:51:15.000 be compared.

00:51:15.580 I will

00:51:16.520 add this

00:51:17.260 following

00:51:17.660 prediction.

00:51:19.260 I think

00:51:19.900 that the

00:51:20.340 reason that

00:51:20.820 the herd

00:51:21.260 immunity

00:51:21.660 is so

00:51:22.560 low,

00:51:24.860 somewhere

00:51:25.340 20%-ish,

00:51:27.120 might be

00:51:27.920 because of

00:51:28.500 the vitamin

00:51:28.940 D thing.

00:51:30.400 I think

00:51:31.140 we're going

00:51:31.480 to find

00:51:31.780 out that

00:51:32.360 the people

00:51:32.860 who had

00:51:33.320 the lowest

00:51:33.840 vitamin D,

00:51:35.680 as well as

00:51:36.500 any other

00:51:36.980 medical problems,

00:51:38.700 were just

00:51:39.320 the entire

00:51:39.900 group that

00:51:41.420 could have

00:51:41.720 a problem.

00:51:42.140 because it

00:51:43.300 turns out

00:51:43.720 that you

00:51:43.920 have low

00:51:44.280 vitamin D

00:51:44.840 if you're

00:51:45.280 African-American,

00:51:46.420 if you're

00:51:46.680 overweight,

00:51:47.440 if you've

00:51:47.760 got diabetes,

00:51:49.560 if you're

00:51:50.260 old,

00:51:51.100 if you're

00:51:51.740 probably in

00:51:52.860 a senior

00:51:53.200 care facility,

00:51:54.960 like all

00:51:55.560 of the

00:51:55.860 things,

00:51:56.840 all of the

00:51:57.380 types of

00:51:57.740 people who

00:51:58.060 are at

00:51:58.200 high risk

00:51:58.720 coincidentally

00:52:00.180 also had

00:52:01.900 very low

00:52:04.140 vitamin D.

00:52:05.120 I think

00:52:05.780 in the end

00:52:06.180 we're going

00:52:06.480 to find out

00:52:07.000 that they

00:52:07.340 were the

00:52:07.760 ones at

00:52:08.340 risk,

00:52:08.820 and if we

00:52:09.900 had tested

00:52:10.420 for vitamin

00:52:11.020 D levels,

00:52:11.820 we could

00:52:12.120 have really

00:52:12.780 done better.

00:52:14.920 All right.

00:52:16.040 Now,

00:52:16.880 some of you

00:52:17.380 are going

00:52:17.580 to say,

00:52:18.140 how can

00:52:18.460 herd immunity

00:52:19.000 be 20% 0.61

00:52:19.900 when we

00:52:20.400 know that

00:52:20.840 at least

00:52:21.200 in one

00:52:21.600 city in

00:52:22.000 Europe,

00:52:22.600 it was

00:52:22.900 over 50%,

00:52:23.900 and there

00:52:24.620 are some

00:52:24.940 prisons which

00:52:25.680 are also

00:52:26.060 over 50%,

00:52:27.100 and there

00:52:27.500 actually is

00:52:28.160 a perfectly

00:52:28.700 good reason

00:52:30.040 why some

00:52:30.920 environments

00:52:31.560 don't get

00:52:32.880 herd immunity

00:52:33.480 at 20%,

00:52:34.420 and it has

00:52:34.900 to do with

00:52:35.300 density.

00:52:36.660 So if you

00:52:37.080 got people

00:52:37.520 packed together,

00:52:38.420 such as in

00:52:39.120 a jail,

00:52:40.000 it doesn't

00:52:40.860 matter that

00:52:41.440 herd immunity

00:52:42.060 would normally

00:52:42.780 be 20%,

00:52:43.720 they're just

00:52:44.600 basically

00:52:46.020 marinating

00:52:46.720 in virus,

00:52:47.540 there's just

00:52:47.860 so much

00:52:48.300 of a viral

00:52:48.960 load if

00:52:50.280 you get

00:52:50.540 enough

00:52:50.800 infected

00:52:51.220 people in

00:52:51.700 a small

00:52:52.080 area like

00:52:52.640 a jail,

00:52:53.740 that in

00:52:54.160 that case,

00:52:55.500 as with

00:52:56.100 at least

00:52:56.460 one cruise

00:52:57.200 ship as

00:52:57.620 well,

00:52:58.620 it'll rush

00:52:59.840 past 20%.

00:53:00.800 But those

00:53:01.480 are artificial

00:53:02.120 environments where

00:53:03.080 people can't 0.97

00:53:03.640 get away from

00:53:04.140 each other

00:53:04.480 too well.

00:53:05.400 So it

00:53:06.060 could be

00:53:06.500 true that

00:53:08.120 a prison

00:53:08.720 or a cruise

00:53:09.300 ship or a

00:53:10.840 certain town

00:53:11.520 could have

00:53:11.940 a 50%

00:53:12.680 situation for

00:53:13.740 herd,

00:53:14.860 another one

00:53:15.480 might be

00:53:15.780 20% if

00:53:16.700 you're just

00:53:17.000 living in

00:53:17.420 the country.

00:53:19.260 So those

00:53:20.180 could be

00:53:20.560 compatible.

00:53:22.440 All right.

00:53:25.420 CNN has a

00:53:26.520 poll that

00:53:28.300 shows that

00:53:30.660 the, here's

00:53:31.760 how it's

00:53:32.400 worded on,

00:53:33.640 I think,

00:53:33.980 Breitbart,

00:53:34.820 that Joe

00:53:35.260 Biden's lead

00:53:35.960 has evaporated

00:53:36.900 in the last

00:53:37.440 two months.

00:53:38.580 A new

00:53:38.920 poll from

00:53:39.640 CNN shows

00:53:41.800 this is a

00:53:43.000 CNN poll

00:53:44.080 showing Biden's

00:53:45.860 lead has

00:53:46.400 evaporated.

00:53:47.880 Now, let me

00:53:48.820 ask you this.

00:53:51.420 Let's say

00:53:52.300 you were

00:53:53.060 planning a

00:53:54.020 coup,

00:53:55.360 version 2.0.

00:53:58.140 And let's

00:53:58.900 say,

00:54:00.040 let's say

00:54:02.280 you wanted

00:54:02.780 to maybe

00:54:03.780 keep all your

00:54:04.480 options open,

00:54:05.920 and one of

00:54:06.600 the options

00:54:07.060 would be to

00:54:07.680 replace the

00:54:08.740 top of the

00:54:09.320 ticket with

00:54:10.460 Kamala Harris.

00:54:11.800 If you were

00:54:12.800 an illegitimate

00:54:13.800 news organization

00:54:15.140 whose leader,

00:54:17.320 Jeff Zucker,

00:54:18.580 was personally

00:54:19.640 and has for a

00:54:20.780 long time been

00:54:21.440 a promoting

00:54:22.140 Kamala Harris,

00:54:23.860 what do you

00:54:24.940 think your

00:54:25.460 polls would

00:54:26.740 show right

00:54:27.860 before the

00:54:28.640 Democratic

00:54:29.220 Convention?

00:54:31.140 I believe

00:54:31.680 your polls

00:54:32.440 would show

00:54:33.260 that Biden

00:54:35.340 has a

00:54:37.360 lead

00:54:37.720 that

00:54:38.720 evaporated.

00:54:40.020 Because if

00:54:40.720 CNN wants

00:54:41.660 Kamala Harris

00:54:42.500 to take the

00:54:43.040 top spot,

00:54:44.040 they're going

00:54:44.460 to have to

00:54:44.800 create a

00:54:45.220 narrative that

00:54:45.900 says that

00:54:46.420 Biden cannot

00:54:47.300 win the

00:54:48.320 way he's

00:54:48.760 going.

00:54:49.560 In other

00:54:49.880 words,

00:54:50.180 they're going

00:54:50.400 to say,

00:54:50.840 ah, the

00:54:51.320 weakness in

00:54:51.860 the party,

00:54:52.380 it's obviously

00:54:53.400 the top

00:54:53.940 spot,

00:54:54.920 because,

00:54:55.880 you know,

00:54:56.260 and now his

00:54:56.760 lead has

00:54:57.460 evaporated,

00:54:58.180 according to

00:54:58.760 CNN.

00:55:00.160 Huh,

00:55:00.460 how convenient

00:55:01.700 just when

00:55:03.040 the Democrats

00:55:04.300 are at that

00:55:05.580 decision point

00:55:06.540 of deciding

00:55:07.520 whether they

00:55:08.020 need to

00:55:08.320 make a

00:55:08.600 change at

00:55:09.040 the top,

00:55:09.760 just at

00:55:10.500 the right

00:55:10.980 time,

00:55:12.480 CNN,

00:55:13.260 that is

00:55:13.520 very pro-Kamala

00:55:14.820 Harris,

00:55:16.040 coincidentally

00:55:16.760 produces their

00:55:17.620 worst poll

00:55:18.660 results for

00:55:19.420 Joe Biden.

00:55:20.800 Huh,

00:55:22.120 interesting,

00:55:23.540 what a

00:55:23.980 coincidence.

00:55:25.640 Or is

00:55:26.700 it?

00:55:26.940 Now,

00:55:29.960 I would

00:55:30.960 say that

00:55:31.340 one of the

00:55:31.640 reasons that

00:55:32.280 maybe Trump

00:55:33.660 will look

00:55:34.920 better in

00:55:35.380 all the

00:55:35.700 polls,

00:55:36.180 because I

00:55:36.400 would expect

00:55:36.760 all the

00:55:37.120 polls to

00:55:37.560 start narrowing,

00:55:38.400 especially as

00:55:38.900 we get

00:55:39.240 closer to

00:55:40.640 the vote.

00:55:41.820 And here's

00:55:43.020 the thing that

00:55:43.520 I don't think

00:55:44.100 you can

00:55:44.560 underestimate.

00:55:46.280 The degree

00:55:46.920 to which

00:55:47.420 Democrats

00:55:48.180 saw Biden

00:55:49.080 as a

00:55:49.700 seat

00:55:50.080 filler,

00:55:51.120 and not

00:55:51.540 a real

00:55:51.860 candidate.

00:55:52.800 Because as

00:55:53.520 long as

00:55:53.940 Trump was

00:55:54.540 running against

00:55:55.220 a generic

00:55:56.180 Democrat,

00:55:58.200 that generic

00:55:58.880 Democrat

00:55:59.280 didn't have

00:55:59.720 any flaws.

00:56:01.320 And Biden

00:56:01.980 was really

00:56:02.520 just a

00:56:02.940 seat

00:56:03.140 filler.

00:56:03.860 He was

00:56:04.220 just a

00:56:04.660 stand-in,

00:56:05.320 a proxy,

00:56:05.960 if you will,

00:56:06.740 for a

00:56:07.240 generic

00:56:07.600 Democrat,

00:56:08.400 a person

00:56:08.900 who was

00:56:09.440 not

00:56:09.680 Trump.

00:56:10.860 But,

00:56:11.460 now you

00:56:11.780 put it

00:56:12.040 in Kamala

00:56:12.440 Harris,

00:56:13.020 people say,

00:56:13.640 well,

00:56:13.980 she's the 0.99

00:56:14.420 real president,

00:56:15.480 and suddenly

00:56:16.120 it's Trump

00:56:17.600 versus

00:56:18.120 an actual

00:56:19.600 person

00:56:20.160 who has

00:56:21.320 actual

00:56:22.120 history

00:56:22.940 and actual

00:56:24.460 targets

00:56:25.160 and actual

00:56:26.560 flaws.

00:56:27.980 It's the

00:56:28.320 first time.

00:56:29.560 Until now,

00:56:30.600 Trump was

00:56:31.040 running against

00:56:31.660 a generic,

00:56:32.720 even with

00:56:33.240 Biden in

00:56:33.780 there.

00:56:33.960 It was

00:56:34.020 just a

00:56:34.380 generic.

00:56:35.400 Now it's

00:56:36.060 a real

00:56:36.300 person.

00:56:37.520 So you

00:56:37.900 would expect

00:56:38.460 that the

00:56:39.200 flaws of

00:56:39.900 a real

00:56:40.260 person would

00:56:41.080 seem bigger

00:56:41.920 than the

00:56:42.400 flaws of

00:56:42.980 a generic,

00:56:43.920 because that

00:56:44.460 person can

00:56:44.980 be perfect

00:56:45.500 in your

00:56:45.940 mind.

00:56:47.800 And the

00:56:48.560 funniest part

00:56:49.060 is that the

00:56:49.580 battleground

00:56:50.260 states,

00:56:50.900 the only

00:56:51.260 ones that

00:56:51.600 matter,

00:56:51.880 have,

00:56:55.920 how close

00:56:56.780 are they?

00:56:57.460 They're dead

00:56:58.180 even.

00:56:59.040 So the

00:56:59.720 battleground

00:57:00.280 states are

00:57:00.840 dead even.

00:57:01.900 Do you know

00:57:02.220 what dead

00:57:02.640 even means

00:57:03.280 in a

00:57:03.680 CNN poll?

00:57:05.220 If the

00:57:05.960 CNN poll

00:57:06.760 says the

00:57:07.280 battleground

00:57:07.840 states are

00:57:08.420 dead even,

00:57:09.620 statistically,

00:57:10.520 it's 49 to

00:57:11.200 48,

00:57:12.400 that means

00:57:14.820 that Trump

00:57:15.240 is ahead

00:57:15.740 of the

00:57:16.800 battleground

00:57:17.280 states.

00:57:18.480 There's no

00:57:19.200 other way to

00:57:19.720 see that,

00:57:20.140 because you

00:57:20.620 know there

00:57:22.220 are some

00:57:22.600 shy Trump

00:57:23.300 supporters in

00:57:24.180 there.

00:57:25.000 How shy are

00:57:25.780 the Trump

00:57:26.100 supporters?

00:57:27.060 Let me put

00:57:27.620 it to you

00:57:27.980 this way.

00:57:29.620 You know

00:57:30.300 those gigantic

00:57:31.040 Trump boat

00:57:32.420 rallies that

00:57:33.280 you've seen

00:57:33.780 on social

00:57:34.720 media but

00:57:35.260 you don't

00:57:35.560 see in the

00:57:36.000 news because

00:57:36.520 the news

00:57:36.820 doesn't cover

00:57:37.340 it?

00:57:38.760 Those,

00:57:39.880 I'm just

00:57:43.960 looking at a

00:57:44.420 comment that's

00:57:44.940 making me laugh.

00:57:46.060 The reason

00:57:46.700 that Trump

00:57:47.240 supporters have

00:57:48.040 to have the

00:57:48.480 rally in the

00:57:49.300 water,

00:57:50.140 is because

00:57:51.160 they can't

00:57:51.620 do it on

00:57:52.000 land.

00:57:53.520 Trump

00:57:53.780 supporters

00:57:54.320 could not

00:57:55.020 put on

00:57:55.420 their Trump

00:57:55.860 hats,

00:57:57.020 pick up

00:57:57.360 their Trump

00:57:57.780 flags,

00:57:58.800 and say,

00:57:59.220 hey, let's

00:57:59.640 meet in the

00:58:00.100 park and

00:58:00.460 have a

00:58:00.820 Trump rally.

00:58:02.080 It would

00:58:02.520 be dangerous.

00:58:03.860 It's

00:58:04.140 dangerous to

00:58:05.080 be on

00:58:05.440 land as

00:58:06.580 a Trump

00:58:06.940 supporter

00:58:07.400 that could 0.68

00:58:07.820 be identified.

00:58:09.040 It's

00:58:09.320 actually

00:58:09.860 dangerous.

00:58:10.940 And so

00:58:11.200 Trump

00:58:11.500 supporters

00:58:12.020 didn't just

00:58:13.380 find a

00:58:13.880 cool way to

00:58:14.780 show their

00:58:15.220 support.

00:58:15.840 It's like,

00:58:16.060 hey, boats

00:58:16.500 are cool.

00:58:17.360 If we have

00:58:17.800 a lot of

00:58:18.200 boats, and

00:58:19.140 it's the

00:58:19.480 summer,

00:58:20.140 it's going

00:58:20.680 to look

00:58:20.880 pretty cool.

00:58:21.420 Let's have

00:58:21.700 a lot of

00:58:22.020 boats.

00:58:22.460 Yeah, that's

00:58:22.800 part of it.

00:58:23.760 That's part

00:58:24.180 of it.

00:58:25.260 But the

00:58:26.380 bigger part

00:58:27.060 is that

00:58:28.060 Republicans are

00:58:29.020 not safe

00:58:29.660 on land.

00:58:31.360 Democrats

00:58:31.720 could have a

00:58:33.080 pro-Biden

00:58:33.920 parade, and

00:58:36.420 they would know

00:58:37.080 they would not

00:58:37.580 be harassed.

00:58:38.720 Maybe verbally,

00:58:39.960 but not

00:58:40.240 physically.

00:58:42.160 Democrats

00:58:42.760 Democrats can

00:58:43.900 have a

00:58:44.300 rally on

00:58:45.060 dry land.

00:58:46.780 You live

00:58:47.320 in a

00:58:47.580 country where

00:58:48.300 this sort

00:58:48.620 of snuck

00:58:49.640 up on

00:58:50.020 you.

00:58:50.860 It's not

00:58:51.380 an accident

00:58:51.900 that the

00:58:52.420 Trump supporters

00:58:53.060 had to

00:58:53.460 leave the

00:58:54.520 continental

00:58:55.100 United States.

00:58:56.920 I mean,

00:58:57.160 they're still

00:58:57.500 in U.S.

00:58:58.780 waters, but

00:58:59.300 they had to

00:58:59.720 leave the

00:59:00.200 continental

00:59:00.600 United States,

00:59:02.600 literally,

00:59:03.380 physically leave

00:59:04.220 it, leave 0.89

00:59:05.520 the United

00:59:06.000 States to

00:59:07.280 have a

00:59:07.640 Trump rally.

00:59:08.500 I mean,

00:59:08.800 they're still

00:59:09.120 in our

00:59:10.000 waters, but

00:59:10.680 they had to

00:59:11.420 leave the

00:59:11.840 dry land.

00:59:12.700 That's not

00:59:13.200 a joke.

00:59:14.520 There's no

00:59:15.040 joke there.

00:59:16.280 That is

00:59:16.780 actually what

00:59:17.500 happened.

00:59:18.360 They couldn't

00:59:19.080 feel safe on

00:59:20.660 dry land.

00:59:22.100 Now, you

00:59:22.500 tell me that

00:59:23.260 these people

00:59:23.800 are telling

00:59:24.180 the truth

00:59:24.660 when pollsters

00:59:25.400 call them

00:59:25.920 and say,

00:59:26.280 who do you

00:59:26.540 support?

00:59:28.000 Not a

00:59:28.620 chance.

00:59:30.100 Not a

00:59:30.740 chance.

00:59:31.420 I told you

00:59:32.000 that when a

00:59:32.400 pollster called

00:59:33.060 me, I think

00:59:34.020 the first time

00:59:34.520 it's ever

00:59:34.800 happened, the

00:59:37.060 moment I

00:59:37.560 realized it

00:59:38.080 was a

00:59:38.360 pollster, and

00:59:39.120 I realized

00:59:39.600 what the

00:59:39.980 question was

00:59:40.540 going to be

00:59:40.880 about,

00:59:41.420 in my

00:59:42.180 head I

00:59:42.580 said, oh,

00:59:43.540 I'm going

00:59:43.760 to tell

00:59:43.980 them

00:59:44.140 Biden,

00:59:45.380 because the

00:59:46.040 last thing

00:59:46.440 I'm going

00:59:46.660 to do is

00:59:46.920 tell them

00:59:47.200 the truth.

00:59:48.580 And, you

00:59:49.940 know, it

00:59:50.140 turns out

00:59:50.460 they asked

00:59:50.760 me if I

00:59:51.100 was registered

00:59:51.660 to vote,

00:59:52.180 and I

00:59:52.320 said no,

00:59:52.720 and that

00:59:52.900 was the

00:59:53.120 end of

00:59:53.340 it, so

00:59:53.580 I didn't

00:59:53.800 have to

00:59:54.100 lie.

00:59:55.180 But I

00:59:55.500 would have.

00:59:58.020 So, at

00:59:59.020 the moment,

01:00:00.000 it looks like

01:00:00.820 there's no

01:00:01.260 real chance

01:00:01.960 that Biden

01:00:02.560 can win

01:00:03.320 as the

01:00:03.880 top of

01:00:04.240 the ticket.

01:00:05.260 And that

01:00:05.540 means that

01:00:06.080 CNN is

01:00:06.720 going to

01:00:07.060 soften up the

01:00:07.820 public by

01:00:08.460 giving some

01:00:09.100 low poll

01:00:09.820 numbers.

01:00:10.180 You should

01:00:11.100 expect that

01:00:11.700 any other

01:00:12.300 polling company

01:00:13.880 that's friendly

01:00:15.140 to Biden

01:00:15.720 is going to

01:00:16.300 show his

01:00:17.820 lead narrowing.

01:00:19.980 You should

01:00:20.580 see all of

01:00:21.320 the left

01:00:21.740 leaning polls

01:00:22.560 narrow quickly,

01:00:23.740 because they're

01:00:24.600 going to try to

01:00:25.180 create the

01:00:25.680 story that,

01:00:26.880 well,

01:00:27.340 sooner is

01:00:30.000 better to

01:00:30.520 replace the

01:00:31.040 top of the

01:00:31.440 ticket.

01:00:32.240 Better get

01:00:32.720 this going.

01:00:33.920 Better hurry

01:00:34.540 up, because

01:00:35.100 he's not going

01:00:35.660 to win.

01:00:36.140 Look at the

01:00:36.680 polls.

01:00:37.500 He's not

01:00:38.000 going to win.

01:00:38.480 You better

01:00:38.820 put somebody

01:00:39.280 stronger in

01:00:39.860 there.

01:00:40.440 Hey, who

01:00:41.280 do we put

01:00:41.640 in there?

01:00:42.500 Kamala Harris.

01:00:44.280 All right.

01:00:49.880 Somebody says,

01:00:50.760 dude, Trump

01:00:51.480 was holding

01:00:51.960 two rallies

01:00:52.560 a week

01:00:52.980 until COVID

01:00:53.740 unlanded

01:00:54.940 everything.

01:00:56.320 Well, that

01:00:57.160 was Trump.

01:00:58.420 Trump has

01:00:59.340 the advantage

01:00:59.920 of having

01:01:00.420 lots of

01:01:00.880 security

01:01:01.440 and a

01:01:02.480 secure

01:01:02.840 location.

01:01:04.320 That's still

01:01:05.000 safe.

01:01:05.440 But if

01:01:06.620 you were

01:01:06.860 to just

01:01:07.160 say, hey,

01:01:08.040 why don't

01:01:08.300 we have

01:01:08.540 like a

01:01:09.040 Trump

01:01:09.520 parade or

01:01:10.920 why don't

01:01:11.180 we all

01:01:11.480 meet in

01:01:11.840 the park

01:01:12.340 and it's

01:01:13.700 just us.

01:01:14.320 There's no

01:01:14.720 Trump.

01:01:15.140 It's just

01:01:15.420 us.

01:01:16.280 What do you

01:01:16.580 think would

01:01:16.840 happen?

01:01:18.100 It's a

01:01:18.380 different

01:01:18.600 situation.

01:01:20.060 Have you

01:01:20.340 noticed that

01:01:20.880 the people

01:01:21.240 who disagree

01:01:21.760 with me

01:01:22.220 are just

01:01:22.600 bad at

01:01:23.040 analogies?

01:01:24.580 I think

01:01:25.220 the Democrats

01:01:25.740 have basically

01:01:26.460 two modes

01:01:27.240 of arguing,

01:01:28.260 a bad

01:01:28.860 analogy

01:01:29.360 and sarcasm.

01:01:32.000 And sometimes

01:01:32.680 they combine

01:01:33.740 the two

01:01:34.200 because you

01:01:34.980 saw that

01:01:35.380 even though

01:01:36.120 that was a

01:01:36.600 written comment

01:01:37.400 about the

01:01:38.520 person who

01:01:38.940 said that

01:01:41.060 Trump has

01:01:41.500 had rallies,

01:01:42.700 even the

01:01:43.580 written comment

01:01:44.300 was written

01:01:44.900 as sarcasm.

01:01:46.280 Dude,

01:01:47.860 Trump has

01:01:48.360 had two

01:01:48.800 rallies and

01:01:49.580 everything,

01:01:50.580 even spelled

01:01:51.140 everything in

01:01:52.700 that sarcastic

01:01:53.660 right in

01:01:53.920 everything.

01:01:55.940 They can't

01:01:56.900 actually have

01:01:57.460 any kind of

01:01:58.020 a rational

01:01:58.520 debate.

01:01:59.740 It's so

01:02:00.220 universally

01:02:01.340 true.

01:02:02.360 It's just

01:02:02.800 a bad

01:02:03.240 analogy.

01:02:03.740 with sarcasm

01:02:06.000 and they

01:02:06.480 actually think

01:02:07.320 that that's

01:02:07.740 some kind

01:02:08.060 of thinking,

01:02:09.100 some kind

01:02:09.900 of point.

01:02:11.200 It's really

01:02:11.940 not.

01:02:12.880 It's actually

01:02:13.480 not.

01:02:13.920 It's just

01:02:14.280 sarcasm.

01:02:15.800 Sarcasm

01:02:16.320 isn't reasons.

01:02:17.780 And analogies

01:02:18.520 are not reasons

01:02:19.200 either.

01:02:19.920 They're just

01:02:20.280 something that

01:02:20.720 reminded you

01:02:21.300 of something

01:02:21.660 else.

01:02:22.000 That's it.

01:02:22.760 That's the

01:02:23.120 whole thing.

01:02:26.280 Yeah,

01:02:26.820 try to put a

01:02:27.380 Trump bumper

01:02:28.120 sticker on

01:02:28.840 your car.

01:02:30.080 Better yet,

01:02:30.740 put a Trump

01:02:31.520 bumper sticker

01:02:32.420 over any

01:02:33.360 car that

01:02:34.800 you think

01:02:35.200 is a

01:02:35.480 Biden

01:02:35.700 supporter.

01:02:37.160 No,

01:02:37.500 don't do

01:02:37.900 that.

01:02:38.520 Their cars

01:02:39.020 will get

01:02:39.320 wrecked.

01:02:40.160 Take that

01:02:40.620 back.

01:02:41.440 Do not

01:02:41.740 do that.

01:02:43.640 Although,

01:02:44.340 I know it's

01:02:44.780 been done

01:02:45.100 as a prank.

01:02:46.960 Somebody

01:02:47.280 says,

01:02:47.680 Warren,

01:02:48.040 I don't

01:02:48.560 think so.

01:02:50.180 Nothing can

01:02:51.020 be ruled

01:02:51.440 down at

01:02:51.820 this point.

01:02:52.720 I don't

01:02:52.940 think Warren

01:02:53.400 would have

01:02:53.720 a chance

01:02:54.080 against

01:02:54.360 Trump.

01:02:58.320 Somebody

01:02:58.840 says,

01:02:59.240 what's up

01:02:59.600 with Trump

01:03:00.160 helicopters

01:03:00.880 flying with

01:03:01.900 four missiles?

01:03:03.560 Why wouldn't

01:03:04.080 it?

01:03:05.040 You don't

01:03:05.420 think Air

01:03:06.740 Force One

01:03:07.240 has defense?

01:03:09.060 I would

01:03:09.740 expect the

01:03:10.220 helicopters to

01:03:11.000 be harmed.

01:03:12.460 Why wouldn't

01:03:13.160 they be?

01:03:13.440 All right.

01:03:18.320 Somebody

01:03:18.840 says,

01:03:19.420 the comment

01:03:20.620 was funny.

01:03:21.480 Jesus,

01:03:22.140 ease up,

01:03:22.660 boomer.

01:03:24.580 Did I

01:03:24.820 see that?

01:03:25.800 Now,

01:03:26.040 first of all,

01:03:26.880 the comment

01:03:27.540 was meant to

01:03:28.480 be a serious

01:03:29.040 comment that

01:03:29.820 Trump has

01:03:30.680 rallies.

01:03:32.000 So here's

01:03:32.500 somebody who

01:03:32.940 can't tell the

01:03:33.520 difference between

01:03:34.240 humor and

01:03:35.220 not humor.

01:03:36.040 Actually can't

01:03:36.600 tell the

01:03:36.860 difference.

01:03:38.020 And so has

01:03:38.780 decided to

01:03:39.360 call me a

01:03:39.820 boomer because

01:03:41.140 didn't have any

01:03:41.780 other reasons.

01:03:43.440 So I guess

01:03:44.820 that's the

01:03:45.240 third argument.

01:03:46.280 There are

01:03:46.500 three Democrat

01:03:47.140 arguments.

01:03:48.140 Bad analogy,

01:03:49.640 sarcasm,

01:03:50.740 and calling

01:03:51.340 people the

01:03:51.920 boomers.

01:03:53.360 Kind of it.

01:03:54.920 But this

01:03:55.600 one won't

01:03:55.940 have to

01:03:56.420 worry anymore

01:03:57.600 because he

01:03:58.840 is now

01:03:59.280 relegated to

01:04:00.320 the blocked

01:04:02.040 world.

01:04:04.320 Goodbye.

01:04:06.060 All right.

01:04:07.320 That's all I

01:04:08.200 got.

01:04:08.860 Did you

01:04:09.320 cash out

01:04:09.740 your Kamala

01:04:10.360 bet?

01:04:10.760 Well,

01:04:10.900 she's not

01:04:11.320 official yet.

01:04:12.020 She's not

01:04:13.320 official.

01:04:14.580 I have two

01:04:15.160 bets on

01:04:15.620 Kamala,

01:04:16.160 one for the

01:04:16.680 top of the

01:04:17.120 ticket and

01:04:17.800 one for

01:04:18.200 vice president.

01:04:19.220 Both of

01:04:19.780 them were

01:04:20.240 long odds.

01:04:21.980 So if

01:04:22.260 either one

01:04:22.800 of them

01:04:23.100 comes in,

01:04:23.820 it pays

01:04:24.260 for the

01:04:24.560 other one.

01:04:25.460 So I'm

01:04:26.260 at least

01:04:26.700 going to

01:04:27.140 win for

01:04:27.460 vice

01:04:27.760 president,

01:04:28.320 which would

01:04:28.780 pay for

01:04:29.260 my other

01:04:29.640 bet and

01:04:30.140 more.

01:04:32.040 But if

01:04:32.640 she becomes

01:04:33.320 the top of

01:04:33.900 the ticket,

01:04:35.620 I'm going

01:04:36.060 to make

01:04:36.280 some serious

01:04:36.780 money.

01:04:38.320 So I

01:04:38.500 still have

01:04:38.820 those bets

01:04:39.180 in place.

01:04:39.620 Oh,

01:04:40.360 QAnon.

01:04:42.940 I don't

01:04:43.660 know what

01:04:43.880 to say

01:04:44.120 about Q.

01:04:44.980 It seems

01:04:45.620 like CNN

01:04:46.460 wants to

01:04:47.040 make that

01:04:47.400 more of

01:04:47.760 a story.

01:04:49.600 Q has 0.68

01:04:50.060 become a

01:04:50.600 bit of

01:04:50.900 a religion.

01:04:51.940 I think

01:04:52.120 people just

01:04:56.040 enjoy the

01:04:56.640 whole Q

01:04:57.100 thing.

01:04:58.120 I just

01:04:58.660 can't take

01:04:59.140 it too

01:04:59.420 seriously.

01:05:02.380 Somebody

01:05:02.900 says,

01:05:03.380 if I see

01:05:03.720 an American

01:05:04.160 flag,

01:05:05.540 I think

01:05:06.080 Trump's

01:05:06.660 supporter.

01:05:07.040 I think

01:05:07.860 you're

01:05:08.060 right.

01:05:09.120 I think

01:05:09.500 you're

01:05:09.680 right.

01:05:10.340 I don't

01:05:10.860 think that

01:05:11.340 the Democrats

01:05:11.920 use the

01:05:12.420 American flag

01:05:13.080 anymore.

01:05:14.100 I think

01:05:14.700 that they

01:05:15.060 too see

01:05:15.580 it as

01:05:15.900 a Republican

01:05:17.400 symbol.

01:05:19.900 All right,

01:05:20.540 that's all I

01:05:20.900 got for now,

01:05:21.480 and I will

01:05:21.800 talk to you

01:05:22.380 tomorrow.

01:05:24.340 Slaughter

01:05:24.660 beaters at

01:05:25.140 100%.

01:05:25.780 Slaughter

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - August 17, 2020

Episode 1095 Scott Adams： Biden's Fake Lead in Polls Evaporates, Trump Supporters Flee to Water, Coup V2.0, Q and BLM

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