Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1118 Scott Adams： Polls, Antifa Versus BLM, My Solution for Fixing Police Brutality, Shy Trump Voters, A$$holes

00:00:00.000 Bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum hey everybody come on in it's another terrific

00:00:10.060 day it's going to be one of the best and it starts with the simultaneous sip which makes

00:00:16.980 everything better we can do a scientific test yeah this will be a controlled scientific test

00:00:23.400 some of you close your ears and don't listen to this you will be the control group and the

00:00:29.480 rest of you will hear the simultaneous sip and participate and then we'll compare who had a

00:00:34.100 better day you just watch all right are you ready half of you randomly cover your ears and don't

00:00:41.660 listen to any of this all you need is a copper mug or a glass of tanker chalice or stein a canteen

00:00:46.040 jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for

00:00:52.560 the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine the other day the thing that makes everything better at least

00:00:57.500 for the people who are listening it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go

00:01:01.260 oh yes coffee is the best choice there is some controversy about it but really there shouldn't

00:01:11.840 be so i was just a moment before i signed on i was uh looking at somebody wrote an article making this

00:01:21.820 observation which is funny when you hear about it remember when muller testified and everybody said

00:01:30.700 uh wait a minute we've been waiting for however long it was two years or whatever for muller's report

00:01:36.980 and now we're finding out that muller was not even mentally capable because when he talked everybody

00:01:43.980 looked at each other and said um you do know there's something seriously wrong with him right

00:01:49.920 now he's you know been a great public service for years so i don't want to mock him but it is

00:01:57.100 nonetheless true that he did not look like a competent senior citizen and now it's biden and it feels like

00:02:06.940 is there some kind of theme going on with the with the democrats that they don't mind putting a white

00:02:14.340 person as you know the the standard bearer for their cause as long as that white person is clearly 1.00

00:02:21.400 mentally incompetent 0.94

00:02:22.880 is it an accident that the two people they've depended on to save themselves from trump are old 0.98

00:02:32.100 white guys who are clearly past their expiration date what is going on over there do they feel like

00:02:40.140 they can't put a a capable person of color or a woman as their standard bearer they would still 1.00

00:02:47.100 just just hold this in your mind the democratic party the party that cares about you know uh inclusivity

00:02:57.160 cares about everybody getting an equal shot cares about systemic racism on on two different occasions 1.00

00:03:05.320 they've had a chance to take out their their moby dick you know the great white whale trump 1.00

00:03:10.960 as their champion an elderly white man who is clearly incompetent 0.99

00:03:17.560 is that the group you want run in your country i don't know all right so here's some good news to

00:03:25.560 start off maybe who knows pfizer and bio and tech are both confident they'll have a vaccine

00:03:32.560 um ready maybe as early as october for approval anyway doesn't mean it'll be approved but they

00:03:39.080 might have it by then there was a one vaccine trial some other company i forget who who paused it

00:03:46.960 because somebody got sick in a way that gave them some concern chances are it's not because of the

00:03:54.140 the uh the vaccination but abundance of caution they're going to check that out now i'm really

00:04:00.860 curious about how many of you would take this vaccination because the thing with the vaccination

00:04:08.940 is if you encourage everybody else to take it but then you cleverly don't take it yourself

00:04:16.180 that's kind of the best risk management isn't it the best you could do if you were just like a total

00:04:25.320 sociopath and you didn't care anything about other people and you were just looking out for yourself

00:04:32.280 wouldn't your best play be to vocally say oh you guys you should all take this

00:04:38.240 you know take that vaccine get that vaccination but then you don't do it yourself because as long

00:04:46.180 as enough other people do it it's going to stop the the spread you just need to get to x percentage

00:04:52.020 of people who are immune and then it's just going to die off in a few weeks so your best play is to get

00:04:57.680 other people to believe it but don't privately believe it now this puts you well all of us and i would

00:05:07.280 say me more than most of you it puts me in a moral dilemma it's a moral dilemma and it goes like this

00:05:13.740 uh like many of our politicians such as the president and nancy pelosi etc we are all and i say we as in

00:05:24.880 public figures everybody who's a public figure is going to have to make a big decision

00:05:30.960 and do not do not underestimate how how much pressure that puts on public figures

00:05:40.360 because i am well aware that my opinion influences other people to make decisions

00:05:47.640 now i'm not sure i'm totally comfortable with that but i don't mind if i've influenced you to

00:05:53.180 let's say change your vote you know because i think that's fair we live in a country where

00:06:00.460 everybody's you know jockeying to do that all the time some people do it better than others

00:06:05.700 i think everybody would agree that's fair game getting people to change their political opinion

00:06:11.060 as long as you're doing it you know responsibly um and of course i heard tons of feedback from

00:06:19.120 people who changed their vote in 2016 because of something i said lots of people said that i also

00:06:25.860 heard people made bets large bets larger than i think would be wise based on things i've said about

00:06:33.320 what might happen so when it comes to this question of whether i personally will take this vaccine

00:06:41.140 i'm in i'm in a tough spot aren't i think about it because if i were to say publicly i'm not going

00:06:49.520 to take this thing it would cause other people not to take it i don't know how many i mean it might

00:06:56.620 it might be five people in the world but it could be 10 000 it could yeah i'm sure i've changed more

00:07:05.200 than 10 000 votes if you count the entire time i've been talking about politics so i would personally

00:07:13.140 be responsible simply by role model you know cause and effect i would personally be responsible for

00:07:21.980 maybe thousands of people making a life-changing medical decision but beyond that it's not even the

00:07:32.340 the 10 000 or so just to pick a number who might be affected directly it also causes a change to herd

00:07:40.620 immunity you know that's the wrong word but you know what i mean it causes a change to the whole

00:07:45.560 dynamic so it's not just the people directly affected it's we're all sort of in this together

00:07:51.340 right if you don't get the vaccine i'm more at risk if i don't get the vaccine you know if you know what i

00:07:59.580 mean so what do i do what what is my moral obligation well i've decided as a as my strategy that i will not

00:08:12.140 make a decision prior to hearing the full medical case but i will not make my decision purely on

00:08:22.560 medical considerations some people will i won't because my decision has to be a risk management

00:08:31.560 decision that looks up the hole because if you're a public figure you're influencing people you just

00:08:38.560 can't there's just no way you can get away with that now i could be a weasel about it and tell you

00:08:43.720 i'm not going to tell you you know so that you could be not influenced i can tell you for sure

00:08:50.020 that i legitimately don't know what i'll do because i haven't heard the story and i'm going

00:08:56.460 to wait i will wait until the last moment before i make a decision because i want all the information

00:09:03.220 i can get like right before the you know the needle goes in my arm if i think i'm going to do it like

00:09:09.060 the moment before the needle goes in i'm going to be on google and i'm going to say hold hold on give

00:09:14.340 me five seconds update latest news vaccinations okay we're good to go but if i see one story that

00:09:24.540 pops up that says uh maybe you ought to double think this or rethink it might take another few days to

00:09:33.960 think about it my uh i will tell you my bias my bias have not made a decision my bias is toward getting

00:09:45.860 the vaccination so i want you to know that in advance right because transparency is going to be

00:09:52.880 kind of key here i'm either going to tell you i'm not going to tell you which is transparency in a way

00:09:59.680 and that that might be the most reasonable thing to do if i don't want to influence your decisions

00:10:05.500 because that would be i'm not a doctor right if i'm not a doctor i shouldn't be influencing you on this

00:10:11.940 so i might i might recuse myself and just not tell you if i got it but that doesn't feel

00:10:19.600 completely responsible to me i feel like my special case given that my role is helping you

00:10:29.280 you know frame and understand your world i feel like i have a greater responsibility than just

00:10:35.260 going silent so this is a tough one i'm going to weigh this you'll find out how it goes i'm biased

00:10:42.140 toward getting the vaccination even if it's dangerous you know even if there's some risk

00:10:48.200 to me personally i'm biased or getting it i could change my mind that's just where i'm at at the moment

00:10:54.980 all right um trump has announced announced and i don't know the details but he says he will be

00:11:03.320 substantially lowering medicare premiums and prescription drug prices bringing them down to

00:11:09.780 levels that were not thought possible now the first thing i love is have you noticed that the

00:11:14.740 president consistently uses um the phrases nobody thought it was possible you know everybody thought it

00:11:23.460 couldn't be done he says that about just about everything he does nobody thought it was possible

00:11:29.500 and of course the first thing that you think is well that's not true i'm sure somebody thought that

00:11:35.200 was possible you know it's it's almost never true that nobody thought something was possible

00:11:40.320 that got done but as a persuasion little add-on it doesn't cost him anything he never gets pushed

00:11:49.320 back when he says this phrase nobody thought it was possible he if you if you think about it i don't

00:11:57.120 know that he's ever gotten pushback for that because there's always something else that they would

00:12:02.200 rather criticize him for so he gets this one for free and quite seriously i've thought of adopting it

00:12:09.660 you know adopting the technique and just start throwing it in there now and then and i'll just say

00:12:15.640 yeah yeah dilbert's and 2000 newspapers nobody thought it was possible everybody said it couldn't

00:12:20.820 be done

00:12:21.180 it's true you should try it as a try as a little uh accent enhancer to everything you say nobody thought

00:12:30.060 it could be done even for ordinary stuff it's like i went to the store got a loaf of bread nobody

00:12:37.300 thought it could be done everybody thought that's impossible but i went to the store i bought a loaf of

00:12:42.700 bread it just makes everything sound better and i always laugh every time he does it because

00:12:49.320 because it works in its own in its own little subtle way because you don't question it it just sort of

00:12:55.180 just goes past your defenses you know because you're not really guarding against it which is brilliant

00:13:00.580 um where was i talking about oh yeah now i don't know if he can do this meaning who knows if he can

00:13:09.280 accomplish this feat he did the he did make a change that uh looks like it would make you know

00:13:18.000 drugs more competitive and we would have the most favored nation uh right to buy them at the same price

00:13:24.760 as anybody else which should lower the prices but i don't know what he's doing about medicare premiums

00:13:30.620 but it's a great thing to say right before an election it's one of the things a president can say

00:13:35.980 before an election to practically buy votes with our own money the one thing an incumbent can do

00:13:43.800 is bribe voters with their own money i'm going to take some of your money and i'm going to put it over

00:13:51.020 here some of your tax money to lower these uh medicare medicare premiums so that's always a good trick

00:13:58.840 because the people who are going to lose that money that they're they're not thinking of that as

00:14:04.420 directly as they're thinking of the lowered medicare premiums so it's a good it's good persuasion who

00:14:10.260 knows how much of a difference he can make we'll see i would love to see by the way and i can't

00:14:17.440 tell me if you've ever seen this comparison you we've seen uh endless comparisons of the president's

00:14:24.980 fact checking and not winning the fact checking okay um and has anybody done a comparison of the

00:14:36.900 president president trump's promises and how well he's done keeping his promises has anybody looked

00:14:44.540 at his list of promises and then what he's done to it versus other presidents of either party

00:14:51.120 and what promises they made and that wouldn't what percentage of the promises they accomplished

00:14:56.180 now that would be a hard thing to compare because if somebody had only one promise but it was a big

00:15:03.560 one and they kept it well that's pretty good right but if somebody had lots of promises and they were

00:15:10.040 kind of trivial do you care if they kept 90 of them if they were mostly trivial so you know it's not a

00:15:17.320 direct comparison but it seems to me just anecdotally observationally and i'd love to know if it's

00:15:23.660 accurate it feels to me that trump is the best promise keeper as a president we've ever seen

00:15:31.680 and by promise keeper i don't mean he accomplished everything he promised but i mean that you can just

00:15:38.320 look and you can see he's fighting like a wounded weasel to make those promises happen it's just not

00:15:45.460 working in every case because some of them are harder than others take building the wall has

00:15:51.440 president trump put a great deal of effort into building a wall i'd say yes i'd say he put his you know

00:15:59.620 put his reputation on the line you know i'd say he laid it down on the line i'd say he pushed every

00:16:05.860 door tried every doorknob he had lots of resistance he's got you know a few hundred miles of mostly

00:16:12.460 replacement wall which is probably really good compared to not having hundreds of miles of

00:16:18.500 replacement wall and it feels like he's just maybe the all-time best at at least attempting

00:16:26.780 attempting and making a serious attempt at keeping promises i don't know i'd love to see a historian

00:16:34.680 lay that out um here's a question could antifa and black lives matter the organizations

00:16:43.160 be destroyed by um having an economist on their team because the problem with antifa and black lives 0.99

00:16:53.480 matter the organizations you know not the idea of black lives matter that's that's something everybody

00:16:59.800 agrees with but the the organization it seems to me that they're more radical uh propositions for

00:17:09.640 getting rid of systemic racism is to get rid of the entire system and if you feel i feel as though

00:17:15.980 antifa many of them are artists and maybe black lives matter i don't know how many of them are

00:17:22.460 economists or or stem people but i feel as if they needed an economist and i would be you know maybe

00:17:29.380 willing to help fund an economist so that so that antifa and black lives matter could have the most 0.80

00:17:38.260 coherent argument for their own case because you want them to make the best case possible because we

00:17:45.620 live in a country in which democracy and freedom of speech are the the mother's milk as we like to say

00:17:54.460 of the of the nation so i'm always in favor of even the people i disagree with making a really strong

00:18:02.320 case because if i can't if if we can't prevail against the best argument well how good is your argument

00:18:10.460 you know maybe if you can't beat somebody else's best argument maybe that's telling you something

00:18:16.820 about your argument right so i'm always in favor of making the best case even if i disagree with it

00:18:23.360 that's how our system thrives so shouldn't antifa and black lives matter have some good economists 1.00

00:18:31.500 uh richard what's his name reich reich um one of the big critics of president trump

00:18:39.460 yeah krugman how about paul krugman why doesn't paul krugman help antifa and black lives matter

00:18:47.400 sort of game out and model what their preferred world would look like because i think if you gave

00:18:56.860 them help it would destroy them because black lives matter and antifa completely defend depend 0.99

00:19:03.840 for their support from their support from anybody who's not directly involved in the organization

00:19:10.840 they depend entirely on people not understanding what they're up to am i right now i'm not talking

00:19:18.380 just about who are the secret people funding them you know is it george soros trying to destroy the

00:19:25.300 world is it some shady you know intelligence group from another country is it russia is it china

00:19:32.060 you know i'm not even talking about that i'm just talking about the fact that the the people who

00:19:39.320 may have no influence outside influence at all who just genuinely believe that some kind of a

00:19:45.220 socialist looking world would be better than this capitalist world just let them make their best case

00:19:52.840 give them the best economists in the world how about a nobel prize winning economist paul krugman

00:19:59.360 would you like to see a paul krugman assistance for antifa and black lives matter of course you would

00:20:08.040 um that would end all of them i think i think that would be the end of all of them

00:20:13.220 they would just they would just explode um all right rasmussen has some new information about

00:20:23.100 people who don't want to tell you their political leanings and so the question was uh were you less

00:20:31.360 likely than prior elections to tell people your political preference now keep in mind that the

00:20:38.600 nature of the question is are you less likely than prior elections which allows that you are already

00:20:47.360 even in the prior election not going to tell the truth so how many of the people whether they were

00:20:55.360 already there or not how many are additionally there remember so this is on top of the people who

00:21:01.640 are already there and not wanting to tell their preference uh in the 18 to 39 year olds

00:21:07.920 it's 24 24 24 of the younger younger people who could vote 24 and these are the likely voters 24 of them

00:21:21.220 don't want to say what their political preference is so that's pretty telling and that's the highest

00:21:27.580 percentage now what is it about young people that would make them the least likely to want to publicly

00:21:35.840 say what their political preferences well i would think young people would have the most social

00:21:40.820 pressure which tells you something we also see that women are substantially more afraid than men

00:21:50.480 to say their political opinion huh why would women be more afraid than men to voice their political

00:22:00.720 opinion especially given that women are far more likely to support biden and biden is a perfectly

00:22:07.820 socially acceptable person to support i feel as if there are a number of women who might support trump

00:22:17.100 and maybe just can't say that out loud as well as these young people we'll find out so the actual

00:22:23.800 polls where people are asked who they're voting for appear to be looking not so good for trump at the

00:22:30.160 moment in the battleground states i think michigan is like plus nine for biden now do you think

00:22:36.080 that there are enough shy trump supporters to close a nine point gap that's a big gap do you think there

00:22:47.900 are that many shy trump supporters well according to rasmussen you can't rule it out now of course

00:22:58.040 you know we don't know anything because data in general is unreliable just a sweeping generalization

00:23:05.400 about all data it's all you know especially about politics it's all unreliable uh and all polls are

00:23:13.840 unreliable and you know except for the actual vote which might be unreliable this year too

00:23:19.080 so some people are saying biden is not socially acceptable that's just not true

00:23:24.960 biden is completely socially acceptable because there's no recorded i don't think there's a

00:23:32.540 recorded case of a trump voter abusing a biden voter is there is there any recorded case of that

00:23:40.600 but there are plenty of recorded cases of trump supporters getting in trouble just for wearing a

00:23:46.600 hat or whatever uh all right um so just because there isn't enough noise in the news e gene carroll

00:23:57.940 is in the news again she's got some defamation thing against trump because he said that she was

00:24:05.320 not telling the truth about her accusations or something along those lines said some bad things

00:24:11.120 matter maybe and now the because it was said on company time when the president was president

00:24:17.100 uh the the government ends up footing the bill to defend it so the department of justice or whoever

00:24:25.580 is defending it but the government is going to defend the president and people are mad about that

00:24:29.900 but apparently that's just the rule if he if he did something that is causing him to be sued

00:24:35.380 in the course of his job which is what happened it is the government's role to defend him they can they

00:24:42.140 can take the case if they want to and they have uh so and then there's a story about rochester so

00:24:51.820 rochester had some uh protests and riots and looting and burning and stuff and um so the rochester

00:25:01.440 police leaders resigned and the chief of police in rochester was black that's right the black chief 0.98

00:25:11.940 of police was sort of forced to resign you know he chose to resign but the pressure was on because

00:25:19.740 black lives matter was feeling that the police were prejudiced so the black chief of police got so much 1.00

00:25:25.620 pressure that he resigned and here is the the thing that this made me uh suggest if you were going to

00:25:34.860 try to design some way to get to a end of the police brutality issue you know some way that we could all be

00:25:44.080 happy that it's handled or doesn't need to be handled or we're doing all we can just something that would

00:25:50.260 look like progress what how how could you do that and here's my suggestion i think that uh i'm going to

00:25:58.360 make a guess that there's something that exists like an organization of black police officers does that

00:26:06.160 exist could somebody tell me if there's any kind of i don't know fraternal or you know social or

00:26:13.380 political group which is black law enforcement people who just have something that they feel

00:26:21.020 they want to work on in common does that exist i'm assuming it exists if it doesn't exist it wouldn't

00:26:28.200 be hard to form one because there's such interest in in this you know topic so suppose you formed or

00:26:36.140 already had a group of black only black law enforcement people and they stepped up and they

00:26:43.280 said this we would like to be the ones to negotiate with black lives matter or whoever else wants to 0.99

00:26:50.840 negotiate with us to figure out what we could do in a practical sense what what we could do that's

00:26:56.920 different and if we agree to it the black law enforcement officers we will help you help you sell it 0.99

00:27:05.840 help you sell it to everybody else but in order to have credibility i feel as if we're in a place

00:27:12.800 where you have to be racist you have to actually be racist to maybe get something useful done that's

00:27:20.280 non-racist in this case the racist thing would be to have the black police officers take the lead 0.70

00:27:27.080 because anything that you know i didn't anything that segregates is automatically racist just by

00:27:33.660 definition but it might be a kind of racism that everybody says because of the moment okay that

00:27:42.980 makes sense you know you can say it's racist to just let the or or to promote the black police officers

00:27:51.420 taking the lead on the question of whether the police are being too abusive to the black population

00:27:58.560 it's racist there's no way around it because any any time you know you divide people by race it's by

00:28:06.940 definition racist but it might also be practical and it might be the kind of racism that everybody

00:28:12.660 would say ah okay just this once i see where you're going with this makes sense it's just kind of

00:28:19.180 practical maybe more credible so let me put that idea out there that if black lives matter wanted to 0.99

00:28:28.000 actually get something done that would be one path that i think would be credible but there is no

00:28:33.420 evidence that they actually want something small done the the evidence would suggest that there are a lot

00:28:42.820 of different opinions about what needs to be done and not all of them have to do with just solving this

00:28:48.220 police thing i would say there are as many as or maybe more who want to change the whole system of

00:28:53.800 capitalism and you know destroy it from the bottom up in which case that wouldn't help at all because

00:28:58.860 they're not looking for a solution in that case all right um here's a new uh new set of social

00:29:07.860 standards i would like to promote as you know i've said that we need to add two sets of uh let's say

00:29:16.120 etiquette or manners that were not necessary in prior generations one of them is that uh you should

00:29:23.360 have 48 hours to apologize or criticize or clarify if you get in trouble for something you did so

00:29:30.420 everybody gets 48 hours to say oh i didn't mean that or clarify it or apologize whatever and then just

00:29:37.740 accept it and move on and the other is my 20 year rule that says if somebody comes up with your

00:29:43.840 high school yearbook and it's more than 20 years ago it just doesn't matter that we're all so

00:29:49.540 different 20 years later that we shouldn't penalize anybody for anything they did 20 years ago you know

00:29:56.520 unless it was you know murder or some kind of terrible thing like that um but here's another one i'm going

00:30:04.880 to add to the list and it comes because uh there's a new ham new hampshire police chief refused to

00:30:14.360 reinstate an officer who was fired over racist text messages so the police officer is um accused and

00:30:24.300 credibly obviously for sending some text messages to his wife only to his wife they had some unstated

00:30:33.520 offensive things that sounded racist to the people who saw the messages now i say that the new law the

00:30:42.860 new rule should be this anything that you said privately cannot be used against you publicly in terms of

00:30:51.720 making you look like a a bad person if it's if it's in the commission of a crime then yeah i mean if

00:30:59.440 your text messages you know show you're guilty of a crime that's different but if it's a thought crime

00:31:06.480 something that would exist only in your head and you've only communicated it to someone who you have

00:31:14.880 a reasonable expectation of confidentiality let's say a spouse if you have a private message to a spouse or

00:31:22.920 a lover and somebody decides to make that public or even to talk about it in this case i don't know if

00:31:29.980 they know the details but the the public is talking about it as if they know what these messages are

00:31:36.580 about i would say that the rule should be whoever took the message to the public is responsible for the

00:31:43.240 content so if there were racist messages between one police officer and a spouse the rule would be

00:31:51.900 that whoever took that to the public is the racist they're the racist because a hundred percent of

00:32:00.320 the public have unpleasant private thoughts there's no exception to that do you think that if you knew

00:32:08.160 everybody's private thoughts do you do you think you'd be happy with all of them i don't think so

00:32:14.260 the reason that we have we talk differently in private than we do in public is that it is universally

00:32:21.880 recognized that when you're talking in public you're having an impact on the public and so if you're

00:32:29.800 going to be a good person in society you don't want to have bad bad impacts on strangers in the public of

00:32:37.620 course so of course we have a different standard for public stuff but private stuff it are you okay with

00:32:47.000 private conversations between spouses becoming a reason for you to get fired i say whoever is holding

00:32:56.220 this up should be fired whoever is holding the standard up that private communication should get you fired from

00:33:04.020 your job a private conversation you had every reason to believe would stay private i think anybody who makes that

00:33:11.700 public should be fired immediately should be labeled a racist if the message was racist should be labeled

00:33:19.240 a troublemaker if the message causes trouble etc so this is the standard i am going to pursue

00:33:28.740 anytime that i see anybody outed for a private conversation don't care what the content is

00:33:35.480 do not care what the content is whatsoever i do care what they do in public i do care what they do on

00:33:42.560 their job but i don't care what they think as soon as we allow that that standard is okay

00:33:48.420 then it's it's just nothing but problems every one of you has got a big problem because you've all

00:33:57.400 said things to people you trust that you didn't think would be appropriate in public

00:34:02.600 so that's my take on that um i've had a number of conversations with shall we say high profile

00:34:14.200 anti-trump people recently and when i say high profile i mean people whose names you would probably

00:34:22.340 recognize uh and you might know that they're left-leaning but the conversations always take

00:34:30.620 this form and i tweeted this a lot of people said they have the same experience and it goes like this

00:34:36.580 and this this will be the the sort of generic version of it where somebody will say to me uh you know

00:34:44.320 trump uh bit the head off a baby and i'll say um no that sounds like uh fake news and then i'll show

00:34:55.260 a link an argument to prove that the very that the person's argument against trump is based on fake news 0.59

00:35:03.260 i've done it with the drinking bleach hoax i've done it with the fine people hoax but often there's something

00:35:10.400 they mention that's just clearly not true or they don't have the context or something so i'll add the

00:35:15.400 context i'll prove to them that the thing they think is their biggest problem with trump literally never

00:35:20.300 happened and then what do they do do they say well i guess everything i've learned is wrong i must have

00:35:29.700 a bad news source i have now adopted your opinion and i'm pro trump no no they don't do that here's what

00:35:38.720 they do every time after you prove that the main reason that was a real reason if it had been true

00:35:45.800 it would have been a really good reason to not like trump but it wasn't true once they learn that

00:35:52.020 they go with they go with uh they go down the hoax funnel as i call it and they'll retreat to this

00:35:59.600 position yeah but look at those tweets he said some bad stuff or don't you know he got fact

00:36:08.040 checked and was wrong on a fact to which i'll say um did you think i'm just curious as a democrat

00:36:18.560 were you under the impression that republicans were not aware that the fact checkers have said

00:36:27.020 that president trump has failed the fact checking 20 000 times i don't think there's anybody who's not

00:36:33.300 aware of that and i don't think there's anybody who supports the president who also thinks that all

00:36:40.260 20 000 fact check things were just all lies nobody thinks that they're all wrong right but we also

00:36:50.200 are adults many of us are and we know that there's no such thing as somebody running for president

00:36:56.180 or even being president who is not lying on a pretty regular basis obama lied lots of examples

00:37:04.640 um biden is literally basing his campaign on the most well-known lies in america most debunked lies

00:37:13.460 the fine people hoax the drinking bleach hoax he's basing his campaign on those things those are

00:37:18.700 literally the foundation of biden's campaign are two easily debunked lies and yet and yet democrats

00:37:30.600 think that republicans haven't noticed that all the candidates do this like they like they think

00:37:39.360 that republicans only think that the democrats do it have you ever met a republican who didn't think 0.97

00:37:45.720 the republicans also will tell some tall tales is there anybody that dumb and so the democrats have 0.98

00:37:53.900 to form this ridiculous opinion of the world in order to preserve their their being right about 0.99

00:38:01.800 everything and that ridiculous opinion is that you haven't noticed that the president uses a little 0.57

00:38:08.200 bit of hyperbole if you know what i mean is there anybody here who hasn't noticed have you been

00:38:14.180 following politics and it's the first time you're hearing that president trump sometimes will

00:38:19.320 exaggerate first time you've heard it democrats literally believe it's the it's the first time

00:38:27.140 you've heard it now that should be a such a glaring and obvious uh cognitive dissonance that that

00:38:36.580 should settle the whole argument about who's hallucinating because it's so obvious it's so easily

00:38:42.400 you know provable okay let me ask you republicans let's let's test out the theory how many of you have

00:38:51.700 never noticed the president sometimes will exaggerate has anybody ever noticed that sometimes take

00:38:58.480 something out of the context a little bit because it makes its case has anybody ever noticed

00:39:02.740 uh all right somebody says scott says i talked to fine people but i won't tell you who ha ha ha ha ha 0.99

00:39:15.040 now um i'm gonna block you just for being an asshole that's the that's the only reason that's the only 0.99

00:39:24.800 reason i need assholes get blocked all right um so that's every conversation with every democrat goes 1.00

00:39:34.920 that way all right i also learned that democrats who are actually like smart people who follow the news 0.98

00:39:43.820 this will blow your mind are you ready for this there's some things you think the democrats just say

00:39:51.040 because it's you know it might help their argument and then there's some things that you think they

00:39:57.400 actually believe i didn't think they believed the following thing i thought it was just something

00:40:04.120 they say but democrats have actually been convinced by the fake news that the reason the protests are

00:40:14.140 happening is because of trump and that you know when you hear that you laugh right you think because

00:40:22.160 of trump what did he do what the hell did trump do uh he didn't he didn't arrest anybody i mean he's 0.60

00:40:32.140 pro-police but he's not in favor of police brutality he's not opposed to fixing it right exactly how did

00:40:42.280 trump even get into this conversation did trump cause systemic racism i don't think so if you asked

00:40:50.880 antifa and black lives matter the organizers not not just all the people in the streets but the

00:40:56.200 organizers and you said to them if trump went away tomorrow would you be good would we all be good

00:41:03.920 then trump's gone what would they say i think they would say hell no i think they would say it doesn't

00:41:11.040 even have anything to do with trump it has to do with 400 years of systemic racism i don't even think

00:41:18.280 black lives matter and antifa blames trump for any of it and yet even though black lives matter 0.84

00:41:24.640 and antifa are very clearly making the case that has to do with you know the whole system it's not

00:41:32.440 something that trump alone is doing what's he doing uh opportunity zones uh prison reform

00:41:39.700 lowering you know unemployment for black people what you know helping you know protecting the

00:41:47.420 the lowest income people in the country by having strong immigration preferences

00:41:52.780 you really can't make a logical argument to tie these protests to trump but they're actually

00:42:01.160 educated smart people who are paying attention who have bought into the the fake news framing

00:42:10.180 that trump is the problem isn't that kind of mind-blowing that anybody would believe that

00:42:17.180 given given what we observe so that's the power of the fake news the fake news can make you believe

00:42:24.400 something that is quite obviously not true really sort of obviously and i have to admit

00:42:32.480 that as much as i you know i prefer president trump get re-elected i kind of would like to see what

00:42:39.820 happened if he didn't you know what i mean i kind of would you know there's a part of me that would

00:42:46.180 like to see biden try to stop uh everything and now the i asked i asked this one person i was arguing

00:42:53.640 with a high profile person i said can you explain to me why they would stop like what would cause

00:43:01.000 what is the situation in which biden would fix something that trump is not willing to fix or able

00:43:08.860 to fix and the argument went like this that because biden would have the right let's say attitude

00:43:15.340 and the right um incentive and credibility that he would be the adult in the room and then he would

00:43:23.660 start negotiating and of course he can't get everything at once but you could at least start

00:43:28.960 to move in the right direction toward making things better for you know for everybody about black

00:43:34.960 people in particular and that if biden were in the in the leader chair sure you wouldn't solve

00:43:42.620 you know uh systemic racism right away but he would start chipping away at it and sort of moving

00:43:49.900 things in the right direction such that the energy would come out of the protests and they would say

00:43:54.920 okay we wish it were faster but now things are moving in the right direction 0.70

00:43:59.980 is that the most ridiculous opinion you've ever heard because i think it doesn't understand 0.67

00:44:07.360 the protests at all because the protest the protesters have flat out rejected small change 0.95

00:44:16.020 they have rejected without conversation any specific solutions they don't want any specific solutions

00:44:25.100 if you don't know that i don't know if you should have an opinion on this stuff that's the most basic

00:44:31.840 thing you should know is that they're not asking for anything in particular if you don't understand

00:44:38.180 they're not asking for anything in particular they want the whole system destroyed and then

00:44:44.440 it will be rebuilt in a way that they don't want to specify if you don't understand that you don't know

00:44:51.040 what's going on all right um did you know that the history of antifa is a little uh shall we say

00:45:03.180 complicated now because history is written by winners and and i doubt everything i read everywhere

00:45:10.280 these days um take this with a little bit of grain of salt but this is my understanding

00:45:17.720 that antifa was founded by this guy ernst thelman he was a german guy in 1932 do you know what was

00:45:28.240 happening around the 30s in germany yes it was about the same time that hitler was rising

00:45:34.200 now hitler of course wanted to overthrow the weimar republic the the government of germany

00:45:41.640 but another entity that wanted to overthrow the government of germany was antifa now antifa formed by

00:45:49.720 this guy ernst talman was essentially a stalin guy so he was a communist who stalin supported and he

00:46:01.760 supported stalinism and so antifa was originally founded to be pro-stalin and against

00:46:11.240 any form of capitalism now here's the other interesting thing fascism as it was originally

00:46:18.620 put into the name antifa didn't mean the same thing it means today so the whole argument that

00:46:28.360 the anti-fa people make is they say hey it's right in our name we're anti-fascist it's right in the name

00:46:37.300 we can't not be that because it's right there in the name but it turns out the fascist didn't mean

00:46:45.840 the same thing fascist just meant anybody who wasn't a communist that's it at least according to

00:46:53.140 wikipedia's telling of it that it just meant that you were uh in the late stages of capitalism so it

00:47:00.600 didn't matter if you were socialist capitalism etc so antifa would have been against a bernie sanders

00:47:09.020 presidency let me say that clearly antifa as it was originally founded and what the name anti-fascist

00:47:18.680 meant back then he would have been against bernie sanders because bernie sanders would have still

00:47:26.220 democracy you would still have democracy he would still have capitalism but it would be a socialist

00:47:32.400 capitalism that's no bueno for antifa so antifa antifa means anti bernie sanders in its original form

00:47:46.460 so if they try to tell you it's anti-fascist you should say it is it's totally anti-fascist and one of the

00:47:55.120 things that is considered fascist is bernie sanders entire platform i'm not making that up that's

00:48:03.460 originally what antifa meant and they haven't said we've changed it so they would oppose bernie sanders

00:48:11.100 i wonder if how many people know that now both the nazis and antifa i've said that they were allied

00:48:22.200 in defeating the german government and therefore that would make them an ally of hitler now uh

00:48:30.340 i got a little pushback from that andres backhouse who was german he's german so he gets to have a

00:48:36.940 better opinion than we do on this he said no no you can't call them allies because they were also

00:48:43.880 killing each other it's just that they had a common enemy in the german government but they didn't love

00:48:50.180 each other and indeed as soon as hitler came to power one of the first things he did was you know

00:48:56.180 crush antifa so i will take that as true but it is also true that the enemy of your enemy is kind of

00:49:05.020 your friend and i would argue also that the united states was allied with stalin against germany so

00:49:16.580 in the same way that the united states was allied with russia even though we weren't friends we were just we

00:49:24.920 had a common enemy antifa had a common enemy and they they were on the same side with hitler

00:49:31.820 uh for different reasons all right uh but they also were they they also hated each other so you've got

00:49:39.860 to add that in there too all right um i'll bet that surprised you uh peter navarro likes to stir the pot

00:49:50.580 which makes me like him uh i i can understand why president trump likes peter navarro i assume he does i

00:49:58.880 mean maybe that could change tomorrow but um navarro goes for blood on social media and also in his

00:50:06.620 interviews he doesn't leave anything on the table he just he just like you know goes for the the

00:50:12.860 provocation and he's not afraid of it so you can see why trump would like him if if that's the case

00:50:19.140 i hope it is but uh there was a new study if you will in which um some credible group looked at all the

00:50:27.940 other studies so it's observational it's not one of these gold standard randomized trials that you'd want

00:50:34.240 but when they looked at all the existing studies they found this no credible study found worse outcomes

00:50:42.320 with hydroxychloroquine use no credible study uh no mortality or other serious safety issue was found

00:50:51.140 conclusions uh the conclusion is that hydroxychloroquine is consistently effective against

00:50:58.900 covid19 when used early in the outpatient setting it is overall effective against covid19 it has not

00:51:06.400 produced worsening and it is safe so again this is a study of studies so the flaw if there is one

00:51:17.480 don't know if there is one but the potential flaw and the reason that randomized trials exist is that

00:51:25.020 all of those studies could have the same flaw that's possible in fact it's not even that crazy

00:51:32.780 that they would all have the same flaw because the flaw could be this the doctors get to decide who gets

00:51:39.980 the drug that could be the flaw so if the doctors are making a similar kind of bias on average then then

00:51:49.900 every study would have that same bias in it what would be that bias let me let me just say

00:51:56.780 suppose that if somebody looked like they were in really bad shape you would be less likely to get them

00:52:03.820 hydroxychloroquine and more likely to say whoa we better move you directly to whatever's a you know more

00:52:11.200 more end-of-life dangerous situation so it's possible there's a selection bias

00:52:17.580 i don't know that but i'm going to still stick with my 30 percent estimate uh 30 percent uh odds

00:52:28.140 just based on stuff we see in the news not based on me knowing something in some deep way but i'd say

00:52:35.500 there's still a good 30 chance that hydroxychloroquine is the real deal and 70 chance that it might be

00:52:43.820 overstated but i doubt it's dangerous all right i ran a poll and i a twitter poll so it's not a

00:52:51.420 scientific poll but i asked the following question in your personal circle are you hearing more whispers

00:52:57.420 about voters moving to trump or away so you know you always hear before an election i used to vote this

00:53:04.060 way but now this year i'm going to vote that way 70 percent of the people said that they had heard

00:53:11.660 people in their own circle their personal circle 70 of them said they'd heard people say they were

00:53:18.300 moving to trump and 4.33 said they'd heard it go the other way now of course my audience on twitter is

00:53:28.780 highly biased but it was 32 000 people voted and 70 70 of them are willing to say that they've heard

00:53:38.620 people going to trump but not away now would you necessarily hear about it if people went from trump

00:53:47.340 to biden probably probably that sounds exactly like the sort of thing somebody would say out loud

00:53:54.460 how likely are you to hear it the other way that somebody says i'm going to vote for trump but you

00:53:59.420 know i didn't vote for him the first time well they usually whisper that that's sort of a whisper

00:54:05.420 conversation so this is a deeply non-scientific poll but uh when you get it when you get a result that

00:54:13.420 that's grotesquely balanced you know unbalanced it's still unscientific but i feel like it could mean

00:54:21.820 something um the michael the michael cohen book is hilarious because he makes all these claims and i don't

00:54:32.460 think anybody cares i just don't think anybody cares now of course michael cohen falls into my 0.79

00:54:39.180 category of he's the asshole because if there was anything that trump ever said to him in confidence 0.92

00:54:46.460 that cohen decided to put in a book that does not reflect on trump that's my rule it only reflects on 0.98

00:54:53.900 cohen so if there was something that he alleges was you know racist or offensive in some way and by the

00:55:01.580 the way we confuse offensive and racist all the time i feel like we should do a better job of

00:55:09.340 distinguishing what's racist from what is offensive because you can be offensive to anybody it doesn't

00:55:17.420 mean that you hate them for their color you are just offensive um anyway but what was funny about

00:55:27.660 peter navarro and hydroxychloroquine is that in his tweet he starts it with even more blood blood on the

00:55:33.900 hands of cnn which which is a great uh framing because should time prove peter navarro correct

00:55:44.380 and the people who think hydroxychloroquine works should they be correct in the long run and i think

00:55:50.140 there's a good chance of that um then cnn does have blood on their hands and a lot of it and that's

00:55:58.860 just the truth so we'll see um this is this is so awful so kamala harris went and visited with uh

00:56:12.300 jacob blake who is credibly accused of some bad crimes and after she talked to him you know he's

00:56:20.300 the one who was shot seven times but survived shot by cops and she told him she's proud of him

00:56:27.740 now megan kelly wasn't too happy about that and she tweeted this proud of him

00:56:35.180 he's accused of breaking into a sleeping woman's house sexually assaulting her humiliating her and

00:56:45.020 later returning to harass her then the cops she called for help say he resisted arrest assaulted

00:56:51.980 them and went for his knife how about a word for his victim senator that seems like a pretty reasonable

00:56:59.100 comment doesn't it i would say that megan kelly has every right to this tweet uh because it sounds 0.93

00:57:06.300 solid to me and i say again that black lives matter if you keep if you keep um what's the right word

00:57:15.740 idolizing or or making heroes and other people who appear to be criminals you know they haven't all

00:57:23.820 been convicted but they're credibly accused if you keep making heroes and giving

00:57:28.860 respect to literally criminals you you just can't be taken seriously you just can't be taken

00:57:36.940 seriously so stop asking us to stop asking us to take seriously making heroes and criminals at the same

00:57:45.580 time you want confederate statues to be taken down i'm in favor of taking down confederate statues

00:57:52.780 because they're offensive but don't don't then reverse your opinion and say oh we can't make heroes

00:58:00.460 out of these confederate statues guys because of slavery um but why would you make a hero out of

00:58:07.260 somebody who's a sexual abuser allegedly credibly accused

00:58:12.700 and then uh an actress uh an actress who did not like megan kelly weighed in um rosanna arquette 0.77

00:58:24.380 who was sort of a vocal democrat um artist and she said to megan kelly about after megan's comment

00:58:34.780 you are a disgrace to journalism do you notice a pattern here here's the pattern megan kelly gives

00:58:43.660 an opinion backed by factual reasons right that's what happened so megan kelly said 0.95

00:58:52.220 this person has all these accusations against them maybe you shouldn't show you know pride in somebody

00:58:59.740 who's got those against them so she showed her reason she gave her opinion based on the reason

00:59:06.140 okay and what does the democrat do goes after the person you're a disgrace to journalism but

00:59:14.940 rosanna you left out your reasons this is this is how the hoax funnel goes here are my reasons okay 1.00

00:59:22.860 your reasons are all debunked oh yeah you're a jerk well that's not an argument after you lose your 0.99

00:59:31.340 argument you're supposed to do something else go find something else to do you don't double down by 1.00

00:59:37.660 saying the person is a jerk and don't even give a reason so you'll see that pattern a lot 0.94

00:59:44.620 um the atlantic which did the fake news about president trump recently now when i say it's fake news 0.98

00:59:55.820 this is another standard which i insist on and the standard goes like that this if any journalist or any

01:00:03.420 person presents a package of claims and you can debunk any part of the package but you can't tell one way

01:00:12.380 or another whether the other stuff is true let's say because it's a anonymous source so you can know

01:00:18.700 that the anonymous source said it but you can't independently verify it but the part you can

01:00:24.300 independently verify turns out to be completely false like not even close to true you should discount

01:00:32.620 all the rest of it that should be the rule like the steel dossier if you found out that some part of it

01:00:39.900 is clearly and obviously not true obviously created to fool you you should discount the rest of it

01:00:47.500 now you might want to look into it but you should certainly discount it while you're looking into it

01:00:52.860 and i would say that would be a good standard to have um so the atlantic did yet another

01:01:00.220 um fake news and it was about there was something a video of biden appearing to walk through a cemetery

01:01:08.380 and it the fake news was that people were bothering him when he was visiting his

01:01:13.980 deceased son at the cemetery except his deceased son was not in that cemetery

01:01:20.860 and biden was not in the cemetery he was photographed through a cemetery as he was leaving a church that

01:01:29.260 happened to have a cemetery in front of it so he wasn't in a cemetery really he was just passing through

01:01:35.900 where one was nearby his son wasn't there none of the story was true comes from the same organization

01:01:44.300 the atlantic one of their writers uh that the other stories that you're supposed to believe are true

01:01:52.300 this should be enough to tell you that the atlantic is just not something you should pay attention to

01:01:56.540 all right apparently trump said um in his speech yesterday that he'll provide school choice to every

01:02:06.700 parent in america that should be enough for him to win the black vote don't know if it will

01:02:13.260 um trump also banned anti-white training in government now he doesn't call it anti-white

01:02:19.420 or maybe he does but it was the critical race theory now uh critical race theory

01:02:28.220 its proponents would say is trying to remove racism but anybody who looks at it can plainly see

01:02:35.260 that it's anti-white by its nature so it is racist by its nature and the president quite rightly got rid of

01:02:43.340 racist training in the government and brian stelter said uh here was brian stelter's comment about

01:02:52.380 the president getting rid of racist training he goes it all comes back to whiteness and the backlash to

01:02:59.180 a browning america and the president heats it up and the feedback loop spins round and round so to brian stelter

01:03:08.540 it's all about whiteness so that's not a good contribution uh brian uh and the best story of

01:03:16.700 the day is that the norwegian uh parliamentarian parliamentarian nominated trump for the nobel peace

01:03:24.460 prize and justification for the nomination was that uh trump uh helped to bring about the deal with the

01:03:33.580 uae and israel and also he was uh he was key to getting south korea and north korea to be in

01:03:42.380 conversation now are those two things first of all are they true yeah yeah totally they're totally true

01:03:54.060 so is this nomination credible and one that you should take seriously yeah yeah it is now i don't think

01:04:02.620 politically speaking i doubt that the president can get the award but is it perfectly reasonable

01:04:10.140 that he should be one of the top people in contention i don't even know who the others would

01:04:15.260 be who would be the who would be number two that you could think of that would get the nobel prize for

01:04:21.820 peace who's number two seriously name name one other person in the world that you could think of

01:04:30.540 who might be in the top two or three i can't think of one can't think of one that doesn't mean he'll win

01:04:40.220 but he's clearly the one but here's the part that i wonder about a deal between israel and the uae is a deal

01:04:49.340 between primarily jewish people and uh islamic people you're with me so far not a hundred percent but

01:04:59.260 largely speaking a deal between israel and uae is jews and uh muslims getting along right now who was

01:05:10.060 key to uh organizing this it was jared jared kushner took the lead in getting this done now how does that

01:05:19.740 fit fit with the democrats and cnn's belief that president trump hates all of those people

01:05:28.860 so the claim that cnn and the anti-trumpers have been making since day one is that the president doesn't

01:05:36.780 like muslims that he supported the uh this is the fine people hoax that he allegedly supported the

01:05:45.740 the people who are anti-semitic which would mean that the president doesn't like israel doesn't

01:05:52.860 like jews and certainly doesn't like jared kushner who is jewish so this is what cnn has sold to its 0.99

01:06:01.580 idiot viewers that the president doesn't like any of those groups and at the same time you have to 0.99

01:06:10.060 explain to the the little confused the cnn viewer heads can you explain why cnn tells you that the 1.00

01:06:18.060 president hates you know hates jews hates muslims and obviously would hate his own son-in-law for being

01:06:25.820 jewish how do you explain that he's nominated for a nobel prize for helping those groups achieve peace 0.98

01:06:35.260 does that make sense in your world view that that would be a major priority for the president

01:06:44.060 to get peace for the two groups you say he hates why is he working so hard for peace

01:06:50.620 for groups he doesn't like according to you doesn't quite make sense does it which worldview would have

01:06:58.460 predicted this well my worldview predicted this because if you will look at my if you look at my

01:07:09.020 blogging record you will find that i might be one of the earliest people who said you know i think trump

01:07:16.140 can actually make peace in the middle east now other people have said it but i think you will see that my

01:07:21.420 record is one of the first ones to say i think he's going to make this happen now it's the beginning

01:07:28.860 of something that could be better we hope it goes in the right direction but if your worldview did not

01:07:34.620 predict this then you should adjust your worldview my worldview predicted it and it happened every time

01:07:43.340 your worldview predicts something that does happen give yourself a check mark but also keep track if your

01:07:50.300 worldview predicts the opposite you're gonna have to keep track of that too i recommend this because

01:07:56.060 otherwise you just don't know how much cognitive dissonance is getting to you all right those are the fun

01:08:02.140 stories for today um

01:08:07.340 and is there anything i missed

01:08:11.420 oh yeah serbia the serbian and kosovo deal i don't know much about it but that would be yet another

01:08:17.500 example of the trump administration being useful to get two warring sides together oh and the other

01:08:24.060 the other argument was uh in the nomination for the nobel prize the peace prize that uh

01:08:30.060 it was noted that trump broke a 39 year um pattern of of the us presidents getting us into war

01:08:39.580 uh so trump is the least warring uh of as president that we've had in 39 years

01:08:50.700 somebody says greta will win it if greta wins the nobel peace prize and trump doesn't

01:08:58.060 do we need a nobel peace prize we can just stop talking about the nobel peace prize if uh

01:09:03.820 yeah oh yeah there's a story tucker carlson was talking about there's a taped conversation between

01:09:11.260 michael cohen and jeff zucker of cnn uh in which it is revealed that zucker was hoping hoping for the

01:09:20.220 best from trump and i don't think he thought trump would get elected but it sounded like zucker was trying

01:09:27.100 to maybe get a tv show going on cnn with trump so it looked like uh zucker was playing both sides there

01:09:36.940 so that was interesting all right that's all for now and i will talk to you

01:09:43.260 thank you lynn that's very nice of you to say and i will talk to you later

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - September 09, 2020

Episode 1118 Scott Adams： Polls, Antifa Versus BLM, My Solution for Fixing Police Brutality, Shy Trump Voters, A$$holes

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