Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 04, 2020


Episode 1144 Scott Adams： Trump and the Campaign. What Happens to the Country's Psychology Now？


Episode Stats

Length

55 minutes

Words per Minute

145.79274

Word Count

8,081

Sentence Count

209

Misogynist Sentences

3

Hate Speech Sentences

4


Summary

Today on the show, we talk about the latest polls on Trump and Biden, and whether or not they are really as bad as they seem on the surface. Plus, we discuss the latest on the Coronavirus outbreak in California and the possible link between it and coronavirus.


Transcript

00:00:00.420 Bum bum bum, bum bum bum, bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum
00:00:13.000 Well, it's time for the simultaneous sip, or as somebody on YouTube refer to it as, the concurrent chug.
00:00:20.660 Well, you can chug or you can sip. It's very permissive here.
00:00:24.940 So come on in, come on in. Got lots to talk about.
00:00:28.380 But first, first, it's time for the Simultaneous Sip,
00:00:32.900 and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein,
00:00:36.000 a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:00:39.680 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.
00:00:43.640 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine,
00:00:46.280 the other day, the thing that makes everything better,
00:00:49.320 including the air quality in California.
00:00:52.360 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it happens now.
00:00:55.060 Go.
00:00:57.760 Yes, speaking of air quality,
00:01:03.800 I've been living in a smoke-infested hellhole for weeks now,
00:01:08.640 but the air quality today has improved a little bit.
00:01:12.580 So today, I might be able to go outside.
00:01:16.600 That would be pretty exciting.
00:01:18.660 Have all of you experienced going outdoors?
00:01:23.300 Imagine having coronavirus,
00:01:24.900 but you also can't go outside because it's too dangerous.
00:01:30.480 That's my world in California.
00:01:33.020 But enough about me.
00:01:34.360 Let's talk about all the fun news.
00:01:38.400 As others have noted, I think Jason Miller noted this first,
00:01:41.800 did you notice that when Trump did his little video from the hospital, Walter Reed Hospital,
00:01:51.920 did you notice, or was it, am I the only one who noticed this,
00:01:55.140 and Jason Miller, I guess, noticed it too,
00:01:57.680 that he didn't say a word about white supremacy?
00:02:00.400 So, I don't know about you, but now I wonder if he's changed back to being in favor of it again.
00:02:10.240 Because if you don't hear from him to denounce white supremacy every, I don't know,
00:02:15.800 at least every 24 hours,
00:02:18.040 every eight hours would be ideal,
00:02:20.060 but at least every 24 hours he's going to have to work it into a sentence.
00:02:24.180 Otherwise, how can we really be sure?
00:02:27.700 Sure, he's denounced them 20, 30 times in public,
00:02:31.480 but sometimes that's not enough.
00:02:35.400 So, we'll be watching for that.
00:02:36.960 There are two new polls coming out about Biden and Trump,
00:02:41.400 and these polls seem to indicate a problem.
00:02:48.220 There's a problem here.
00:02:49.480 The problem being with the polls themselves.
00:02:53.480 All right, so here's one.
00:02:54.760 The NBC Wall Street Journal poll shows a huge jump in support for Biden,
00:03:01.400 and that he would be at 53% compared to Trump's 39%.
00:03:07.180 If that's true, if this poll is even a little bit legitimate,
00:03:12.260 Trump has no chance.
00:03:14.220 He's done.
00:03:15.900 Why does my nose always itch when I go on camera?
00:03:19.480 But, on the other side of the spectrum,
00:03:24.680 we've got the Zogby poll,
00:03:26.780 in which the very opposite happened.
00:03:30.240 So, in the other world, the other reality, in Zogby,
00:03:34.000 Biden's lead has been cut down to two,
00:03:37.800 so it's only a 49 to 47 difference.
00:03:41.320 Now, that's really different.
00:03:43.820 It would be one thing if both polls showed that the direction of things was the same,
00:03:51.200 but maybe one of them showed that it was even more in one direction than the other one did.
00:03:56.500 I would think, well, those polls are different,
00:04:00.540 but at least they seem to be heading in the right direction.
00:04:03.920 But if one goes north and one goes south,
00:04:09.240 based on the same world events and taken roughly at the same time,
00:04:14.160 I don't think I trust both of those polls.
00:04:17.820 I'm not sure if you can trust any poll these days,
00:04:20.120 but I certainly don't trust them together.
00:04:22.360 For those of you who don't pay attention as much,
00:04:28.000 what do you know about the NBC polls and NBC News?
00:04:34.000 Well, I'm just telling you what's been reported.
00:04:37.000 People who are smarter than I am
00:04:38.760 would tell you that the NBC polls are essentially controlled by our own intelligence agencies.
00:04:47.440 Do I know that personally?
00:04:49.400 No.
00:04:49.740 I don't personally have any information about that.
00:04:53.360 But smart people say that NBC is largely controlled by our own intelligence agencies.
00:05:00.420 So what would our intelligence agencies want us to think about the upcoming election?
00:05:07.480 They might want us to think that President Trump can't win,
00:05:11.380 might depress the vote.
00:05:15.740 So I wouldn't trust anything out of an NBC poll.
00:05:19.740 But if it turns out that there are other polls that agree with it,
00:05:23.220 well, then maybe you take it a little bit more seriously.
00:05:26.760 But we'll wait on that.
00:05:30.040 In my opinion, the worst take on the coronavirus goes like this.
00:05:36.080 Masks definitely don't work.
00:05:37.940 Now, I'm not an epidemiologist.
00:05:45.300 I'm not a mask expert.
00:05:49.040 And I am certainly open to the idea, certainly a possibility, strong possibility, really,
00:05:56.560 that masks don't help as much as the experts would like us to believe.
00:06:01.160 Totally possible.
00:06:02.200 If you said, I'm not sure if masks work, I'd say, well, there's a, that's a reasonable opinion right there.
00:06:11.120 If you said, I'm pretty sure they do, you might be right, you might be wrong, but that's a reasonable opinion.
00:06:18.980 It's a reasonable opinion because it would agree with the consensus of experts, as far as I know, in every major country.
00:06:28.340 So all the major countries got on the same page, which is unusual, about masks having data to support that they work.
00:06:37.340 So if you said, probably they work, and a lot of the experts are on the same page, even if these experts are all over the place,
00:06:46.960 normally you expect experts to be more diverse in their opinions, but they all seem, at least the consensus, not every expert,
00:06:55.660 but the consensus in every major country, exactly the same.
00:07:01.580 That means something.
00:07:03.660 Here's the worst take.
00:07:05.600 Masks definitely don't work.
00:07:08.000 Now, is it possible, is it possibly true, that masks don't make any difference,
00:07:15.560 and all of the consensus of experts in all the countries are all wrong?
00:07:21.680 Is that possible?
00:07:23.660 Yes, totally.
00:07:25.500 Totally possible.
00:07:28.180 What is the smart risk-reward way to play it?
00:07:31.560 Suppose you are pretty sure they don't work, but it's more of a hunch, more of a skepticism.
00:07:39.440 Maybe you saw some studies that say, hey, the particle is only this big, but there's so many holes in a mask.
00:07:50.060 If you looked at it under a microscope, the holes would be this size, the particle would be the size of a BB.
00:07:56.680 How is a hole the size of a basketball hoop going to stop a BB?
00:08:02.000 That, of course, is a very bad take.
00:08:07.620 Here's what you should be thinking.
00:08:09.820 What does that virus ride on?
00:08:11.940 Does it travel alone?
00:08:14.200 It does not.
00:08:15.080 It rides on air droplets.
00:08:17.360 Is the air droplet small enough to go through the hole that's the size of a basketball hoop, relatively speaking?
00:08:26.520 And the answer is, some are, some get through, some do not.
00:08:32.940 That's called friction.
00:08:34.900 Some get through and some do not.
00:08:37.820 So if some get through and some do not, what would that tell you about the total amount of virus that's being spread into the room?
00:08:46.940 I know what you're saying.
00:08:48.640 Scott, Scott, Scott.
00:08:49.640 I've seen the video where they tested it.
00:08:52.960 The mask doesn't stop the air from coming out.
00:08:56.040 It just comes out the sides.
00:08:58.560 It still comes out.
00:09:00.380 Same amount of air.
00:09:01.860 It has to go somewhere.
00:09:03.580 So it's not like staying within the mask, right?
00:09:06.720 It's going somewhere.
00:09:08.300 That's right.
00:09:09.700 But it's not going as far, is it?
00:09:12.020 If your mask is sort of leaking out the edges, it's staying near you.
00:09:16.660 If you take the mask off and you're a big talker,
00:09:19.740 Hey, what you doing?
00:09:21.280 Let me talk to you right into your face.
00:09:23.700 You're shooting a cannon of virus into the other person's mouth and eyes.
00:09:29.520 Is it the same?
00:09:31.880 Maybe.
00:09:33.180 Maybe.
00:09:34.020 I wouldn't rule out the possibility that if you really could study this thing,
00:09:38.720 and apparently it's hard to study, so you really can't,
00:09:41.400 that in the real world,
00:09:42.680 maybe the virus coming out the side floats in the air.
00:09:48.460 It doesn't matter that it was local to you because it all spreads out, maybe.
00:09:53.460 I'm open to that.
00:09:54.840 It could be that they don't work.
00:09:57.140 But what are the odds?
00:09:58.240 If you're going to play the odds here, what's the smart way to play this?
00:10:03.520 Well, if you've got some special condition where wearing a mask might be dangerous to you personally,
00:10:09.260 well, that's a personal decision.
00:10:11.140 But in terms of the risk-reward,
00:10:14.300 given that the experts in every country,
00:10:16.980 the consensus, not every expert,
00:10:19.200 but the consensus is very strongly, unambiguously wear a mask,
00:10:24.660 maybe you ought to take that seriously on a risk-reward level.
00:10:29.280 Again, doesn't mean that there's a 100% chance that they really make a big difference.
00:10:36.440 But I would say the odds are pretty good.
00:10:39.400 30% chance?
00:10:41.260 Suppose there were a 30% chance it would make a difference.
00:10:45.260 Would you think that's worth it?
00:10:47.760 I would say so.
00:10:49.060 I would think a 30% chance that masks make a difference would be enough.
00:10:54.660 Yeah, and even if you add into it the fact that people will touch their mask and all of that,
00:11:01.900 all of that's been taken into consideration by the experts who study these things
00:11:07.680 and have figured out that the data suggests that it works.
00:11:12.760 Here's a good rule for determining what is true and what is fake in terms of the news.
00:11:20.500 It's in my book, Loser Think, and the trick goes like this.
00:11:26.540 If you see something reported as true on CNN and untrue on Fox News, it's untrue.
00:11:35.780 Not because Fox News says it's untrue,
00:11:38.520 but because there are two news organizations equally capable,
00:11:42.360 and if they don't both say it's true,
00:11:46.080 about 95% of the time it's not true.
00:11:50.520 That's also reversed.
00:11:52.780 If Fox News says it's definitely true,
00:11:55.600 and CNN says, no, that never happened,
00:11:58.440 there's a 95% chance it didn't happen.
00:12:01.580 But if both of them say something is true,
00:12:04.480 the odds of it being true, very high.
00:12:09.080 Both Fox News and CNN and MSNBC and every other network,
00:12:14.500 left and right, report unambiguously,
00:12:18.580 masks are important, right?
00:12:21.260 Now, they do have, on Fox News especially,
00:12:24.080 they'll have guests who will be on the side of opening up
00:12:28.620 and taking our chances and getting herd immunity and all that.
00:12:32.280 But it's always in context.
00:12:33.540 Next, they'll still bring on their own medical guy
00:12:36.960 right after the guy who says maybe masks are not that important.
00:12:41.140 They'll still bring on their medical guy to say,
00:12:43.220 yeah, masks are important, the experts agree.
00:12:45.880 So that's all I want to say.
00:12:47.660 You can certainly say you're not sure if masks work,
00:12:50.740 but it is not a good take to say,
00:12:53.980 therefore, we shouldn't wear them.
00:12:56.420 That the logic isn't there.
00:12:59.000 The logic is, might be a good chance they work,
00:13:02.080 given the stakes, it's worth a shot.
00:13:04.580 It probably won't kill you.
00:13:06.500 I've got a question about this Rose Garden super spreader situation.
00:13:11.840 Probably you have the same question, right?
00:13:15.260 And the question goes like this.
00:13:16.880 Why is one event such a spready situation and others are not?
00:13:26.680 Because they're not that different, are they?
00:13:29.160 What would make the Rose Garden event so infectious,
00:13:35.220 but yet let's say the normal Trump rallies were not?
00:13:38.600 Let's say the Black Lives Matter rallies were not?
00:13:43.020 It seems like there are a lot of things that were not,
00:13:45.780 but this one was.
00:13:48.200 Now, how can you explain that?
00:13:50.420 Well, the most obvious explanation would be this.
00:13:54.460 Statistics are not even.
00:13:56.920 There is a thing called statistical clustering.
00:14:00.260 It's one of the reasons that you sometimes think,
00:14:02.540 oh, no, the water is polluted in this town
00:14:05.720 because this town has an unusual amount of a certain kind of cancer.
00:14:10.380 Sometimes that's exactly what's going on.
00:14:13.680 Sometimes you have, in fact,
00:14:15.740 found that this town has a problem with the water
00:14:18.040 and the water is giving people cancer.
00:14:20.460 Sometimes.
00:14:21.640 Other times, it's just a fluke of statistics.
00:14:25.340 And when you look into it, you just find out,
00:14:27.500 oh, it's actually fairly common
00:14:29.780 that there will be little clusters of unexplained things
00:14:33.520 for every situation.
00:14:36.480 And those little clusters don't mean anything
00:14:38.620 because they're normal.
00:14:40.220 So it could be that the Rose Garden situation
00:14:43.060 was just one of those.
00:14:45.520 Just a complete coincidence
00:14:47.360 that there happened to be infected people
00:14:50.120 more than usual who attended the event
00:14:52.980 and were not aware of it.
00:14:55.600 Could be just statistics.
00:14:57.600 But I ask you this.
00:14:58.740 Could there ever have been a more perfect place
00:15:03.520 from the perspective of the anti-Trumpers?
00:15:08.220 What would be the most perfect place
00:15:10.360 for a super-spreading thing to break out?
00:15:13.980 Well, number one would be at a rally, right?
00:15:17.160 A rally would make the case for Biden
00:15:19.520 because if a rally broke out,
00:15:21.140 he could say,
00:15:21.900 see what you've done.
00:15:23.180 You're killing your own supporters.
00:15:24.760 But I've not heard much in the way
00:15:28.440 of rallies causing spreading, have you?
00:15:31.580 Maybe it's harder to tell
00:15:32.940 because the public doesn't get tested as much.
00:15:37.420 But the first thing you have to ask yourself is,
00:15:41.040 huh, that would be a pretty big coincidence.
00:15:43.920 So we would have two coincidences.
00:15:46.120 One, that this Rose Garden event
00:15:48.540 coincidentally had all the right variables
00:15:51.100 for a super-spreading event,
00:15:53.140 whereas others do not.
00:15:55.340 But also by coincidence,
00:15:57.740 so this is a coincidence on top of a coincidence,
00:16:00.940 it would be the most politically powerful thing to do.
00:16:04.620 Because giving COVID to a bunch of professional politicians,
00:16:09.760 mostly Republican,
00:16:10.760 would be more popular,
00:16:14.200 let's say,
00:16:15.560 if you were a Democrat,
00:16:17.780 than giving it to citizens.
00:16:20.340 Because you would just have empathy
00:16:21.800 if citizens get it.
00:16:23.580 Do you have the same amount of empathy
00:16:25.320 if a Republican who didn't wear a mask
00:16:28.200 in public
00:16:29.380 got it?
00:16:31.780 Right?
00:16:32.500 So that's a coincidence
00:16:34.340 that it happened,
00:16:36.280 that it was super-spready
00:16:37.780 in this one event,
00:16:38.760 on top of a coincidence,
00:16:41.360 it was also the most
00:16:42.940 politically powerful place
00:16:45.540 it could happen.
00:16:47.080 Two big coincidences, right?
00:16:50.900 Here's a filter.
00:16:53.840 Oh, here's another coincidence.
00:16:55.460 It happened exactly the week,
00:16:58.200 relatively speaking,
00:16:59.280 that the 2016 video dropped,
00:17:03.580 that the video dropped
00:17:05.880 of the Access Hollywood tape.
00:17:08.760 Now,
00:17:09.400 why did the Access Hollywood tape
00:17:11.660 drop exactly when it did,
00:17:13.840 in 2016?
00:17:15.360 Was that a coincidence?
00:17:16.960 Was that the week
00:17:17.840 that somebody found the video?
00:17:20.180 No.
00:17:21.180 That was an engineered drop,
00:17:24.160 because it was close enough
00:17:25.580 to the election
00:17:26.220 that it didn't look like
00:17:27.680 we could forget it.
00:17:29.360 And it wasn't anything
00:17:30.240 the president could do about it,
00:17:31.720 he just had to live with it.
00:17:33.260 There was no response to it,
00:17:34.960 all you could say
00:17:35.760 is a locker room talk,
00:17:37.960 you know,
00:17:38.320 doing my best.
00:17:40.240 So,
00:17:41.280 if you were going to play
00:17:43.220 an intentional dirty trick,
00:17:45.400 it would happen this week.
00:17:47.380 So that would be a coincidence.
00:17:49.420 So you've got a coincidence
00:17:50.540 that the Rose Garden
00:17:51.900 was the super-spready event,
00:17:54.360 a coincidence,
00:17:55.280 it's the most politically
00:17:56.380 powerful thing
00:17:57.500 where it could have happened,
00:17:59.340 and also,
00:18:01.160 it involved
00:18:01.860 the Supreme Court nomination.
00:18:04.340 What was it that we heard
00:18:05.480 from the Democrats
00:18:06.300 about the Supreme Court nomination?
00:18:09.000 What did Chuck Schumer say
00:18:11.000 about the fact
00:18:12.220 that the Republicans
00:18:13.060 were going to push
00:18:13.880 through the nomination?
00:18:15.540 I believe he said,
00:18:17.400 everything's on the table.
00:18:20.000 Everything's on the table.
00:18:21.560 And I think he sort of meant it,
00:18:23.540 everything's on the table
00:18:24.600 as a strategy.
00:18:26.020 So now you've got
00:18:26.800 the coincidence
00:18:27.440 it was in the Rose Garden,
00:18:28.900 and not in other places.
00:18:30.820 A coincidence,
00:18:31.640 it was the perfect event
00:18:33.560 because it had to do
00:18:34.600 with the Supreme Court
00:18:36.500 and it was mostly Republicans.
00:18:39.020 It was,
00:18:39.860 it was during a time
00:18:43.020 when Schumer said,
00:18:44.140 anything's on the table.
00:18:46.600 And
00:18:47.120 it happened,
00:18:49.960 there was one other coincidence there.
00:18:53.240 Now,
00:18:54.180 does that mean
00:18:55.760 that there was some mischief involved
00:18:58.000 and that maybe
00:18:59.160 the infections
00:19:00.380 were intentional?
00:19:01.740 Nope.
00:19:02.880 There is zero evidence
00:19:05.000 of anybody
00:19:06.380 intentionally infecting anybody.
00:19:08.340 So let me say that
00:19:09.240 as clearly as possible.
00:19:10.960 There is zero evidence
00:19:12.720 that there's anything
00:19:14.680 except just natural infection
00:19:16.520 going on.
00:19:17.300 Because it could easily happen
00:19:18.820 with just coincidence
00:19:20.460 and chance
00:19:21.360 and natural infection.
00:19:22.740 You always have to be careful
00:19:23.840 of coincidence.
00:19:24.500 But I will give you
00:19:26.080 this frame
00:19:26.880 just to
00:19:28.340 have as a check.
00:19:30.380 I've told you
00:19:31.300 in other situations
00:19:32.500 that one of the ways
00:19:34.180 you can
00:19:35.820 predict
00:19:36.760 if there will be
00:19:37.740 bad behavior
00:19:38.660 is this.
00:19:40.500 Whenever you have
00:19:41.280 a situation
00:19:41.960 in the world
00:19:43.300 in which
00:19:44.420 the upside potential
00:19:46.780 for doing something
00:19:48.400 illegal or devious
00:19:49.740 is very high,
00:19:51.240 like you could
00:19:52.220 make a billion dollars
00:19:53.460 or
00:19:54.300 you could change
00:19:55.840 the government
00:19:56.400 to the United States.
00:19:57.820 Very high stakes.
00:19:59.360 So whenever you have
00:20:00.100 high stakes
00:20:01.020 if something bad
00:20:03.180 happens
00:20:03.600 and you have
00:20:04.680 this other condition
00:20:05.680 pretty much
00:20:07.320 no chance
00:20:08.220 of getting caught.
00:20:09.580 If your odds
00:20:10.540 of getting caught
00:20:11.440 are just
00:20:12.840 really,
00:20:13.720 really small
00:20:14.380 but your potential
00:20:16.000 gain is gigantic
00:20:17.440 how often
00:20:19.120 does mischief
00:20:20.240 or illegal actions
00:20:21.800 happen
00:20:22.240 under that condition?
00:20:24.860 Payoff
00:20:25.420 is gigantic
00:20:26.280 the risk
00:20:27.700 of getting caught
00:20:28.500 for doing something
00:20:29.380 to get that payoff
00:20:30.420 trivial.
00:20:32.780 How often
00:20:33.400 oh and then
00:20:34.200 I'll add a third variable
00:20:35.600 there are lots
00:20:36.840 of people involved
00:20:37.940 so let's say
00:20:39.240 in this case
00:20:39.840 you've got lots
00:20:40.540 of foreign adversaries
00:20:41.780 who would like
00:20:42.720 to see something
00:20:43.380 bad happen
00:20:44.020 to the president
00:20:44.660 but you also
00:20:45.660 have lots
00:20:46.080 of Democrats
00:20:46.820 individually
00:20:47.900 and as a group
00:20:49.200 so you've got
00:20:50.220 lots and lots
00:20:51.160 and lots
00:20:51.600 of people
00:20:52.040 who would have
00:20:53.600 interest
00:20:54.160 in doing something
00:20:55.120 that had a gigantic
00:20:56.220 payoff
00:20:56.840 minuscule risk.
00:21:00.800 How often
00:21:01.340 in our world
00:21:02.240 will mischief
00:21:03.840 happen
00:21:04.220 under those conditions?
00:21:06.140 And the answer
00:21:06.540 is every time.
00:21:08.440 The answer
00:21:08.960 is every time.
00:21:11.300 Now
00:21:11.640 could this be
00:21:12.600 the exception?
00:21:13.260 could this be
00:21:14.860 because the stakes
00:21:16.040 are so high
00:21:16.840 and if you got
00:21:18.040 caught doing
00:21:18.620 this thing
00:21:19.120 even though
00:21:19.500 the chances
00:21:19.960 of getting caught
00:21:20.640 are really
00:21:21.480 really small
00:21:22.140 if you didn't
00:21:23.360 get caught
00:21:23.880 it's pretty bad.
00:21:26.380 I mean
00:21:26.700 it's about as bad
00:21:27.480 as it could possibly
00:21:28.320 be if you get caught
00:21:29.300 doing something
00:21:29.780 like that.
00:21:31.160 Let's take an example.
00:21:33.220 Let's take
00:21:33.840 insider trading.
00:21:36.280 If you do
00:21:37.180 insider trading
00:21:38.220 do you have
00:21:39.300 a potential
00:21:39.920 for a gigantic
00:21:40.840 upside?
00:21:41.600 yeah
00:21:42.320 depending on the
00:21:43.500 trade
00:21:43.780 it could be
00:21:44.280 pretty big.
00:21:45.460 What are the odds
00:21:46.160 of getting caught
00:21:47.160 at insider trading?
00:21:51.020 Not as high
00:21:52.200 as they should be
00:21:53.060 right?
00:21:53.460 That's the reason
00:21:54.100 that happens so much
00:21:55.140 because there are
00:21:56.220 situations in which
00:21:57.440 people say
00:21:58.020 you know
00:21:59.220 all I have to do
00:22:00.460 is mention this
00:22:01.300 to my cousin
00:22:02.000 and nobody's
00:22:03.300 going to know
00:22:03.780 it came from me
00:22:04.520 just my cousin
00:22:05.820 will have a good
00:22:06.560 stock trade
00:22:07.740 and maybe
00:22:09.420 I'll work
00:22:09.820 something out
00:22:10.320 you know
00:22:10.860 on the side
00:22:11.560 with my cousin
00:22:12.420 as a payback
00:22:13.560 for this
00:22:13.980 insider information.
00:22:15.840 Well then it
00:22:16.220 happens almost
00:22:16.780 every time.
00:22:18.820 So maybe
00:22:19.520 this is the
00:22:20.100 exception.
00:22:21.100 It could be
00:22:21.540 the one time
00:22:22.280 that there was
00:22:22.900 no mischief
00:22:23.600 and that it
00:22:24.620 just happened
00:22:25.120 to coincidentally
00:22:26.400 line up
00:22:27.120 with exactly
00:22:28.500 the way
00:22:29.020 it would look
00:22:29.780 if it was
00:22:31.380 done
00:22:31.720 intentionally.
00:22:32.620 But again
00:22:35.540 let me back
00:22:36.420 up to the
00:22:36.900 first point
00:22:37.380 if you were
00:22:37.900 going to
00:22:38.120 place a bet
00:22:38.980 on this
00:22:40.160 or any other
00:22:41.040 conspiracy theory
00:22:42.280 being true
00:22:42.900 you should
00:22:43.680 probably bet
00:22:44.120 against it.
00:22:45.240 You know
00:22:45.400 if you had
00:22:47.380 to put your
00:22:47.780 money on it
00:22:48.600 I'd bet
00:22:49.660 against it.
00:22:53.120 Yeah
00:22:53.260 Martha Stewart
00:22:55.000 did have a
00:22:55.700 little issue
00:22:56.420 with that.
00:22:57.540 Alright
00:22:57.720 so I'm not
00:23:00.840 saying that
00:23:01.520 there was
00:23:02.520 mischief
00:23:02.980 I'm just
00:23:03.400 saying that
00:23:04.000 every condition
00:23:05.460 that would
00:23:07.140 support that
00:23:07.820 theory exists.
00:23:09.120 That's all.
00:23:11.600 I've talked
00:23:12.360 a lot about
00:23:12.940 this being
00:23:13.480 or about
00:23:14.680 this would
00:23:15.840 have a
00:23:16.280 third act.
00:23:17.520 In other
00:23:17.900 words in a
00:23:18.460 movie the
00:23:19.200 third act
00:23:19.920 is about
00:23:20.820 two thirds
00:23:21.940 through the
00:23:22.380 movie where
00:23:23.580 there's something
00:23:24.940 that happens
00:23:25.640 that looks
00:23:26.460 like the
00:23:26.920 hero can't
00:23:28.340 possibly escape.
00:23:30.180 The hero
00:23:30.720 is doomed
00:23:31.500 there's just
00:23:32.100 no way you
00:23:32.800 can get
00:23:33.120 out of
00:23:33.420 this trap
00:23:34.100 and then
00:23:35.180 the hero
00:23:35.620 does somehow
00:23:36.460 against all
00:23:37.280 odds.
00:23:37.900 That's the
00:23:38.260 third act
00:23:38.800 in movie
00:23:39.440 scripts.
00:23:41.500 In 2016
00:23:42.660 as I
00:23:43.400 mentioned
00:23:43.740 the
00:23:44.240 Access
00:23:45.080 Hollywood
00:23:45.480 tape
00:23:47.740 was probably
00:23:48.440 his third
00:23:48.920 act.
00:23:50.320 There are
00:23:50.960 usually some
00:23:51.560 fake third
00:23:52.340 acts before
00:23:52.980 the real
00:23:53.380 one even
00:23:53.880 in a movie.
00:23:54.860 It looks
00:23:55.220 like there's
00:23:55.620 a problem
00:23:56.080 and it's
00:23:56.420 like ah
00:23:56.860 okay that
00:23:57.640 wasn't as
00:23:58.080 big a
00:23:58.380 problem.
00:23:59.360 The hero
00:23:59.700 solved it.
00:24:01.040 And then
00:24:01.620 there's another
00:24:02.080 one that's
00:24:02.380 like ah here
00:24:02.860 comes the
00:24:03.220 third act.
00:24:04.420 Okay that
00:24:04.920 wasn't such a
00:24:05.720 big problem
00:24:06.200 and he did
00:24:06.820 solve that.
00:24:07.780 Oh here it
00:24:08.280 is.
00:24:08.520 Here's the
00:24:08.900 real one.
00:24:09.680 And the
00:24:09.980 real one is
00:24:10.540 so big you
00:24:12.160 just can't get
00:24:12.800 out of it.
00:24:13.760 So what would
00:24:14.440 be a bigger
00:24:14.940 problem than
00:24:15.720 this president
00:24:16.420 being accused
00:24:17.560 of killing
00:24:18.520 200,000 people
00:24:19.840 with his bad
00:24:20.800 management of
00:24:21.480 coronavirus
00:24:22.040 according to
00:24:23.240 his critics
00:24:23.780 and that
00:24:24.680 he gets
00:24:25.160 it himself
00:24:25.700 by not
00:24:26.640 following his
00:24:27.220 own guidelines.
00:24:28.740 Could that
00:24:29.380 be more
00:24:30.760 of a third
00:24:31.320 act?
00:24:33.100 It's hard
00:24:33.720 to imagine
00:24:34.200 because you
00:24:35.220 know his
00:24:35.520 taxes came
00:24:36.440 up nothing
00:24:37.100 Russia
00:24:37.900 collusion
00:24:38.460 came up
00:24:39.080 nothing
00:24:39.540 you know
00:24:40.620 the economy
00:24:41.260 is recovering
00:24:42.080 there's a lot
00:24:44.160 going right
00:24:44.800 but this
00:24:45.300 coronavirus
00:24:45.760 was sort
00:24:47.180 of his
00:24:47.400 big
00:24:47.620 vulnerability
00:24:48.160 what are
00:24:49.340 the odds
00:24:49.940 that just
00:24:51.040 exactly
00:24:51.820 the worst
00:24:53.100 thing
00:24:53.680 for that
00:24:54.800 specific
00:24:55.460 vulnerability
00:24:56.080 actually
00:24:56.960 happened.
00:24:58.040 Again it's
00:24:58.700 a pretty
00:24:58.980 big coincidence
00:24:59.580 isn't it?
00:25:00.800 But it did
00:25:01.760 happen and
00:25:02.340 that's the
00:25:02.700 third act.
00:25:03.200 So let's
00:25:03.400 talk about
00:25:03.840 how the
00:25:04.980 third act
00:25:05.500 will go.
00:25:06.740 But first
00:25:07.280 I'm seeing
00:25:09.980 some yammering
00:25:11.760 online about
00:25:12.800 the fact that
00:25:13.420 the pictures
00:25:14.180 that the
00:25:15.200 president
00:25:15.920 provided from
00:25:17.860 Walter Reed
00:25:18.440 hospital
00:25:18.780 people are
00:25:19.980 saying that
00:25:20.360 they look
00:25:20.700 staged
00:25:21.320 and that
00:25:22.400 the thing
00:25:22.800 he was
00:25:23.100 signing
00:25:23.380 was just
00:25:23.800 a blank
00:25:24.180 piece of
00:25:24.620 paper.
00:25:25.960 Well let
00:25:27.520 me explain
00:25:28.400 to you
00:25:29.100 how the
00:25:30.080 real world
00:25:30.740 works.
00:25:31.920 Of course
00:25:32.880 it was
00:25:33.280 staged.
00:25:34.680 If there's
00:25:35.520 anybody who
00:25:36.120 thinks that
00:25:36.780 those pictures
00:25:37.360 of the
00:25:37.760 president
00:25:38.140 are working
00:25:39.280 if there's
00:25:40.460 anybody who
00:25:41.040 doesn't think
00:25:41.640 they were
00:25:42.020 staged
00:25:42.600 pictures
00:25:43.220 which probably
00:25:44.240 had nothing
00:25:44.740 to do with
00:25:45.280 where he was
00:25:45.900 working or
00:25:46.480 what he was
00:25:46.920 doing I'm
00:25:47.800 sure he's
00:25:48.120 working but
00:25:49.340 I don't think
00:25:49.860 he needed
00:25:50.240 those documents
00:25:51.120 and binders
00:25:51.780 sitting in
00:25:52.260 front of
00:25:52.560 him and
00:25:53.240 I don't
00:25:53.440 think he
00:25:53.780 needed to
00:25:54.120 be signing
00:25:54.560 anything at
00:25:55.120 that moment.
00:25:56.200 So yeah
00:25:56.560 in the real
00:25:57.320 world the
00:25:58.540 photographer comes
00:25:59.580 in moves
00:26:00.720 things around
00:26:01.400 and says I
00:26:02.080 don't want to
00:26:02.460 have a blank
00:26:03.000 desk there
00:26:04.060 should be some
00:26:04.580 work on the
00:26:05.180 desk so does
00:26:06.340 anybody have a
00:26:06.980 binder that says
00:26:07.840 President Trump
00:26:09.000 on it or
00:26:09.480 something or I
00:26:10.080 put that up
00:26:10.660 there says
00:26:11.080 POTUS you
00:26:12.120 know make it
00:26:12.500 look like there's
00:26:13.040 not too much
00:26:13.740 work just the
00:26:15.060 right amount of
00:26:15.620 work.
00:26:15.840 okay move
00:26:16.340 the coffee
00:26:16.780 cup president
00:26:18.300 that shirt is
00:26:19.720 not working
00:26:20.360 could you
00:26:21.380 maybe take
00:26:21.960 off no you
00:26:23.260 don't want to
00:26:23.660 be wearing a
00:26:24.160 tie yeah try
00:26:25.520 try opening
00:26:26.180 another button
00:26:26.860 on the shirt
00:26:27.520 we'll change
00:26:28.440 the light behind
00:26:29.240 you can
00:26:30.880 somebody can
00:26:31.620 somebody come
00:26:32.100 in here and
00:26:32.980 get that little
00:26:34.020 hair lick that's
00:26:34.880 in the back okay
00:26:35.660 thank you you got
00:26:36.480 that so that's
00:26:38.620 what a photo
00:26:39.180 opportunity looks
00:26:40.720 like there's no
00:26:42.040 such thing as the
00:26:43.000 photographer sneaks
00:26:44.100 in the room and
00:26:45.280 takes them
00:26:45.780 unknowing still
00:26:46.780 picture of the
00:26:47.460 president who
00:26:48.520 couldn't have
00:26:48.940 possibly known
00:26:49.640 that his picture
00:26:50.200 was being taken
00:26:50.940 that's not a
00:26:52.740 thing that's not
00:26:54.160 a thing of
00:26:55.500 course they were
00:26:56.000 staged and
00:26:56.820 should be that's
00:26:57.960 not that's not
00:26:58.740 like a crime
00:26:59.380 and then the
00:27:04.080 word one of the
00:27:04.760 worst takes I
00:27:05.860 saw Mike
00:27:06.420 sort of it
00:27:06.900 called this out
00:27:07.680 was that one
00:27:11.100 of the bad
00:27:11.980 journalists looked
00:27:13.540 at a picture of
00:27:14.280 Trump on the
00:27:15.540 campaign trail
00:27:16.360 compared to his
00:27:18.060 video from Walter
00:27:19.240 Reed and said
00:27:20.080 look at his
00:27:20.960 complexion his
00:27:22.360 complexion at
00:27:23.160 Walter Reed is
00:27:23.900 all pale whereas
00:27:25.360 just a few days
00:27:26.540 ago in the
00:27:26.980 campaign trail his
00:27:28.400 face was full of
00:27:29.400 color to which
00:27:31.500 Mike Cernovich
00:27:32.920 points out that
00:27:34.480 these are people
00:27:35.140 pretending they
00:27:35.920 don't know how
00:27:36.540 TV makeup works
00:27:37.960 obviously if he's
00:27:40.540 in a hospital and
00:27:42.020 he's highly
00:27:42.500 contagious you're
00:27:43.900 not going to
00:27:44.300 call him the
00:27:44.880 makeup artist and
00:27:46.500 say hey makeup
00:27:47.300 artist put on
00:27:48.600 your hazmat suit
00:27:49.600 and come over
00:27:50.080 here and put
00:27:51.260 some put some
00:27:52.540 color on the
00:27:53.420 president you
00:27:54.940 don't do that
00:27:55.680 you let him look
00:27:57.320 natural because
00:27:58.080 he's in the
00:27:58.540 hospital after all
00:27:59.460 the last thing
00:28:00.400 you'd want is a
00:28:01.980 makeup picture you
00:28:03.620 know a picture
00:28:04.080 with makeup in a
00:28:05.780 hospital that's not
00:28:07.540 the way to play
00:28:08.100 that so of
00:28:09.380 course he looks
00:28:10.480 like he doesn't
00:28:11.140 have a you
00:28:12.340 know a good
00:28:13.300 tan because it
00:28:14.180 comes out of a
00:28:15.360 bottle and they
00:28:16.720 wouldn't do that
00:28:17.240 there so that's
00:28:18.440 how crazy the
00:28:19.340 news coverage is
00:28:20.360 on SNL I
00:28:25.240 don't know why
00:28:25.620 we have to talk
00:28:26.280 about Saturday
00:28:26.880 Night Live all
00:28:27.500 the time like
00:28:28.380 it's the most
00:28:29.220 interesting thing
00:28:29.940 that happens but
00:28:31.840 Chris Rock had
00:28:33.320 a his joke was
00:28:35.060 that he had a
00:28:35.920 sympathy for the
00:28:37.460 COVID so that
00:28:40.120 wasn't so nice
00:28:40.980 I had this
00:28:44.020 thought yesterday
00:28:44.760 we see all the
00:28:46.320 examples of the
00:28:47.260 people who are
00:28:47.900 wishing the
00:28:48.480 president you
00:28:49.820 know bad
00:28:51.180 outcomes and we
00:28:52.820 say to ourself
00:28:53.480 my god what
00:28:54.340 terrible people
00:28:55.480 what terrible
00:28:56.800 people you
00:28:57.980 know why do we
00:28:58.600 have to live in
00:28:59.180 a world with
00:28:59.740 people like that
00:29:00.580 where they're
00:29:01.440 wishing you know
00:29:02.760 bad health on the
00:29:03.800 president no matter
00:29:04.940 what you think of
00:29:05.680 him it's just such
00:29:06.980 a bad form but I
00:29:08.600 would like to put
00:29:10.100 this into the
00:29:11.100 the mix I think
00:29:13.360 most people are
00:29:14.100 good people I
00:29:16.080 think that most
00:29:16.900 people in in the
00:29:18.560 public eye especially
00:29:19.680 the politicians all
00:29:21.980 the way from Biden
00:29:23.220 on most people
00:29:25.260 understood that this
00:29:28.240 was a time not to
00:29:29.580 be that kind of
00:29:30.300 person most people
00:29:32.280 got this that the
00:29:34.460 rest of society
00:29:35.300 might judge them
00:29:36.380 harshly if they
00:29:38.020 wished for ill
00:29:39.180 health for another
00:29:39.980 citizen even if
00:29:41.020 they disagree with
00:29:41.760 that citizen so I
00:29:43.640 think most people
00:29:44.340 got it and I feel
00:29:46.180 as though there
00:29:47.560 was possibly a
00:29:51.660 glimmer of
00:29:52.520 humanity in the
00:29:54.500 anti-Trumpers
00:29:55.520 that where they
00:29:57.300 could feel this
00:29:58.000 little notion oh
00:29:59.700 yeah we're all
00:30:01.000 human beings and
00:30:02.040 we're all vulnerable
00:30:02.780 and yeah he did
00:30:05.200 get that while he
00:30:06.060 was doing the job
00:30:07.040 of the presidency
00:30:07.800 he was he was in
00:30:09.800 public service it
00:30:11.320 is a vital
00:30:12.180 essential service
00:30:13.720 the presidency is
00:30:15.100 obviously and he
00:30:16.900 got sick doing the
00:30:18.900 work of the people
00:30:19.540 now sure you know
00:30:22.200 maybe you should
00:30:23.280 have done more
00:30:24.060 things with masks
00:30:25.000 and social distancing
00:30:26.080 but the but when
00:30:27.800 somebody gets hurt
00:30:28.860 that's not really
00:30:30.900 the time we pile
00:30:31.840 on right if you
00:30:33.900 have a kid and
00:30:35.260 your your kid
00:30:36.280 let's say you got
00:30:37.500 a teenager teenager
00:30:39.240 comes home drunk
00:30:40.420 well that teenager
00:30:42.180 is in a lot of
00:30:42.880 trouble but not
00:30:44.560 right away right
00:30:46.240 that when the kid
00:30:47.660 is sick and you
00:30:49.640 know they're in
00:30:50.360 bad shape that's
00:30:51.900 not when you pile
00:30:52.700 on and everybody
00:30:54.220 gets that just
00:30:55.280 automatically
00:30:55.980 right so I
00:30:58.220 think that the
00:30:58.760 president's going
00:30:59.560 to get some
00:31:00.980 natural reflex
00:31:03.320 good feelings
00:31:05.200 from people who
00:31:06.160 are not bad
00:31:06.700 people those
00:31:08.000 people who are
00:31:08.460 bad people will
00:31:09.320 just continue being
00:31:10.280 bad but the
00:31:11.640 people who are
00:31:12.100 not will say
00:31:13.460 you know maybe
00:31:15.160 this is a time to
00:31:16.220 just take a little
00:31:16.900 pause maybe just
00:31:18.340 step back a little
00:31:19.080 bit
00:31:19.440 yeah as I'm
00:31:23.900 seeing a comment
00:31:24.800 on YouTube that
00:31:25.800 Reagan was
00:31:26.400 actually stronger
00:31:27.420 after he got
00:31:28.600 shot and part of
00:31:30.220 the explanation of
00:31:31.180 that is the the
00:31:32.680 way he handled it
00:31:34.020 so even though he
00:31:35.880 was a victim he
00:31:36.900 never acted like a
00:31:38.000 victim he always
00:31:38.940 acted like he had
00:31:40.660 good humor and that
00:31:41.800 that became the
00:31:42.480 story about his
00:31:44.200 positive attitude even
00:31:45.520 though he'd been
00:31:46.060 shot so I think
00:31:48.260 Trump has a strong
00:31:50.800 possibility to get
00:31:51.900 that kind of
00:31:52.560 reaction a positive
00:31:54.280 pop but we also
00:31:55.900 have the example
00:31:56.580 of Boris Johnson
00:31:58.980 now fact check me
00:32:00.880 on this but I
00:32:02.380 saw I saw some
00:32:03.740 data that said
00:32:04.420 that when Boris
00:32:05.180 Johnson got his
00:32:06.700 covid diagnosis
00:32:10.020 that his popularity
00:32:11.620 just went through
00:32:12.320 the roof he
00:32:13.480 immediately became
00:32:14.760 far more popular
00:32:15.860 because of a I
00:32:17.460 don't know an
00:32:17.880 empathy sympathy
00:32:18.960 just a natural
00:32:20.580 human instinct I
00:32:21.680 guess so do you
00:32:24.840 think President
00:32:25.400 Trump will go the
00:32:26.440 same way as
00:32:27.320 Boris Johnson well
00:32:28.740 a lot of you don't
00:32:29.920 know that that's
00:32:30.960 why Boris Johnson
00:32:31.880 was created in the
00:32:33.320 laboratory when you
00:32:34.720 look at Boris
00:32:35.280 Johnson do you say
00:32:36.780 to yourself hey
00:32:38.460 why does he remind
00:32:40.300 me of a poor man's
00:32:41.800 Donald Trump there's
00:32:43.540 something I don't
00:32:44.440 know is it his
00:32:44.960 hair is it his
00:32:46.580 politics there's
00:32:48.400 something that looks
00:32:49.400 like like a poor
00:32:51.020 man's Donald Trump
00:32:52.500 there with Boris
00:32:53.240 Johnson well what
00:32:53.940 you don't know is
00:32:55.240 that Boris Johnson
00:32:56.060 was actually created
00:32:57.400 in a laboratory in
00:33:00.220 case they ever needed
00:33:01.120 to test anything for
00:33:02.500 President Trump so
00:33:04.440 whenever they need
00:33:05.300 to do an experiment
00:33:06.480 like what do you
00:33:07.920 think would happen
00:33:08.640 if President Trump
00:33:10.480 got coronavirus would
00:33:12.640 he be more
00:33:13.300 popular or less
00:33:14.460 popular and then
00:33:15.660 they say well let's
00:33:16.940 let's not jump into
00:33:17.940 this let's test it
00:33:19.840 first so they say
00:33:21.560 do we where's our
00:33:23.360 test guy and they
00:33:24.860 get Boris Johnson
00:33:25.820 and they slather some
00:33:27.300 COVID you know
00:33:29.040 coronavirus on and
00:33:30.300 they say all right
00:33:30.880 let's let's watch
00:33:31.740 and then they watch
00:33:32.980 the polls and
00:33:34.240 they're like are you
00:33:34.900 seeing this are you
00:33:36.520 seeing this are our
00:33:37.960 little our test Trump
00:33:39.880 his popularity is
00:33:42.040 going up I think
00:33:45.240 this is working and
00:33:46.840 so once they see
00:33:47.840 that it works for
00:33:48.540 Boris and then he
00:33:49.440 survives and
00:33:50.100 everything they say
00:33:51.180 all right it's time
00:33:51.920 to implement our
00:33:52.620 plan I'm just
00:33:54.100 kidding in case
00:33:55.840 you're new to me
00:33:56.580 just kidding but it
00:34:00.520 does suggest that
00:34:01.580 there might be a
00:34:03.100 greater chance that
00:34:04.060 Trump will be more
00:34:05.180 popular not less
00:34:07.340 and here are some
00:34:10.520 possible outcomes
00:34:11.940 all right so
00:34:13.280 right now we're in
00:34:16.060 this sort of
00:34:17.060 multi-dimensional
00:34:18.200 Schrodinger's cat
00:34:20.540 box situation we
00:34:23.260 don't know yet if
00:34:24.700 the cat is alive or
00:34:25.920 the cat is dead or
00:34:27.600 the cat is a zombie or
00:34:29.020 ten other paths and
00:34:34.240 here are some
00:34:36.020 possible directions
00:34:37.120 one is I often
00:34:40.860 tell you that the
00:34:41.540 way people think is
00:34:42.700 in terms of stories
00:34:43.720 so when this news
00:34:45.280 broke people were I
00:34:47.360 think confused
00:34:48.660 because it didn't fit
00:34:50.280 any story they
00:34:51.360 already have in their
00:34:52.240 head there's no
00:34:53.340 model of this there's
00:34:54.480 no there wasn't
00:34:55.220 anything like it
00:34:56.180 exactly so they're
00:34:58.420 trying to say okay
00:34:59.280 what what what is
00:35:00.580 this like so I can do
00:35:02.780 some predicting because
00:35:03.800 if it's like that
00:35:04.540 other thing then
00:35:05.300 maybe I know what's
00:35:05.920 going to happen so
00:35:07.020 here are some things
00:35:07.760 it's like one is
00:35:10.220 the spider-man you
00:35:12.580 know the spider-man
00:35:13.460 story Peter Parker
00:35:15.180 gets bitten by a
00:35:16.780 radioactive spider now
00:35:19.160 I know what you're
00:35:19.740 thinking on paper if
00:35:23.580 you said hey would
00:35:24.440 you like to be bitten
00:35:25.340 by a radioactive spider
00:35:27.000 you would probably say
00:35:29.040 no thank you that
00:35:31.000 sounds like a very
00:35:31.900 bad idea I don't
00:35:33.380 like spiders I don't
00:35:35.200 like radioactivity so
00:35:37.140 if you put the
00:35:37.660 radioactivity with the
00:35:38.940 spider and then you
00:35:39.980 have it bite me that's
00:35:40.960 all bad I don't want
00:35:42.780 any of that radioactive
00:35:43.980 spider business so on
00:35:46.040 paper it's a very bad
00:35:46.980 idea but if you know
00:35:48.600 the spider-man story it
00:35:50.240 gave Peter Parker
00:35:51.400 spider powers and he
00:35:53.580 actually came out with a
00:35:54.540 superpower now look at
00:35:57.060 Trump getting coronavirus
00:35:58.840 is it possible that one
00:36:03.020 of the outcomes is a
00:36:04.860 superpower now I mean a
00:36:06.860 superpower in in terms of
00:36:08.800 the normal world what
00:36:10.720 would be a superpower for
00:36:12.800 Trump what would be
00:36:14.880 something that would let's
00:36:16.320 say if you wanted to play
00:36:18.260 it this way and you know
00:36:20.680 that he's he understands the
00:36:22.820 show he understands TV he
00:36:27.380 understands how minds work he
00:36:29.800 understands the story he
00:36:32.040 understands the visuals he
00:36:34.100 understands persuasion so he
00:36:37.460 could certainly construct a new
00:36:40.340 Trump that is the improved
00:36:42.780 version or the Peter Parker
00:36:45.080 gets bitten by the the
00:36:47.120 radioactive spider version the
00:36:49.240 one who's got something extra
00:36:51.060 coming out of this situation what
00:36:53.960 would the extra be that would
00:36:56.240 flip it for him do you know
00:36:58.880 what it is yet yeah I'm seeing
00:37:02.360 it in the comments empathy but
00:37:05.020 empathy is the right answer but
00:37:07.120 I'm gonna I'm gonna modify that a
00:37:09.100 little bit and improve it a little
00:37:10.340 bit not just empathy what about
00:37:14.140 being nice what about understanding
00:37:18.280 the problem what about being the
00:37:20.960 one person in the world who more
00:37:22.620 than anyone else understands the
00:37:25.160 trade-off and the risk between
00:37:27.640 going back to work and helping the
00:37:29.840 children because the children need
00:37:31.940 us to go back to work and helping
00:37:34.180 the economy helping the world
00:37:35.920 helping the poor because the poor
00:37:38.160 are getting at the worst as they
00:37:39.640 always do well how do you balance
00:37:42.220 that risk between doing your job the
00:37:44.820 thing that the country requires you to
00:37:46.660 do your patriotic duty to be part of
00:37:49.540 the solution and not part of the
00:37:50.900 problem how do you balance that with
00:37:53.000 the actual risk to your health well
00:37:55.560 I'll tell you if there's one person
00:37:57.520 you could trust to understand the risk
00:38:00.920 it's somebody who just went through it
00:38:03.340 all right the president is spending
00:38:05.620 these few days thinking about his own
00:38:08.660 mortality in a way that maybe he's
00:38:10.920 never has before all right we can't
00:38:13.420 read his mind but it would be fair to
00:38:15.660 assume that his his appreciation of
00:38:20.200 those trade-offs of maybe I'll die if I
00:38:23.420 go back to work literally maybe I'll die
00:38:26.200 or maybe I'll infect somebody I love he
00:38:29.840 probably did you probably infected
00:38:32.660 Melania you know best guess so he's
00:38:37.460 gonna look like a different person will
00:38:40.520 he be clever enough and nimble a bit
00:38:43.060 enough to simply inhabit that new
00:38:46.380 personality if he does it's a movie
00:38:50.320 because in the movie one of the
00:38:52.560 important things and as a writer you
00:38:54.640 understand this is that the hero's
00:38:57.100 journey or that how the hero changes so
00:39:00.500 the hero in the beginning of a movie has
00:39:02.600 to have a certain personality traits maybe
00:39:05.540 the hero is afraid of something by the
00:39:08.220 end of the movie they will have overcome
00:39:10.040 that fear so Trump's biggest complaint
00:39:14.520 is his personality right you know that he
00:39:18.440 rubs people the wrong way he's a little
00:39:20.220 too to to Trump and what happens if he
00:39:24.720 comes out of this with a softened
00:39:27.520 personality at least through election
00:39:29.760 day maybe it doesn't last forever but
00:39:31.860 what if it lasts through election day
00:39:33.280 he's gonna look different a lot of the
00:39:36.840 reason that people don't like him is his
00:39:38.840 style what if he modifies it now you
00:39:43.300 can't modify it all the way to not being
00:39:45.220 Trump you can't modify it all the way to
00:39:47.780 not being a fighter can't modify it all
00:39:50.520 the way to not being optimistic all right
00:39:53.060 there's a limit to how much you can
00:39:54.300 modify but there's still a lot of room
00:39:56.980 there to say the right stuff you know
00:39:59.600 what I mean he could be the same person
00:40:01.680 but maybe speak differently now if you had
00:40:06.140 to bet on Trump turning into a modified
00:40:09.840 version of Trump it's probably a bad bet
00:40:12.400 one one of the things that we like best
00:40:15.980 about Trump is you know exactly who he is
00:40:18.560 you know even even with you know not
00:40:21.300 passing the fact-checking you know
00:40:23.880 exactly who he is so it doesn't even hurt
00:40:25.840 so you hear today Trump told 5,000 new
00:40:30.420 inaccurate statements how does that
00:40:33.760 change you it doesn't makes no difference
00:40:36.800 at all because you expected that yeah
00:40:42.040 somebody says Trump is almost like
00:40:43.760 somebody from Queens exactly so that's
00:40:48.520 one way I could go it could go the
00:40:50.100 Peter Parker way and he comes out with a
00:40:52.220 personality superpower he didn't have
00:40:54.660 before you know you on his video
00:40:58.040 statement he used a he used a statement
00:41:01.560 which is just super strong and he does
00:41:04.160 this so well I mean I doubt he thought it
00:41:07.520 through but it was still perfect even
00:41:10.780 spontaneously and he said that he was
00:41:13.380 seeing lots of bipartisan you know love
00:41:16.340 and support that he was getting and then
00:41:18.140 he said this I don't know if he thought
00:41:19.740 this but he said I'll never forget it
00:41:22.700 that's really powerful he said I'll
00:41:26.460 never forget it and it sounded sincere
00:41:31.120 because I actually believe this is a
00:41:34.860 gigantic moment in his life obviously
00:41:37.760 and I don't think he will forget it and
00:41:41.100 I think he will always appreciate the
00:41:42.880 country for doing this for him even
00:41:45.700 bipartisan now when you have a president
00:41:48.840 who is touched in that way touched by the
00:41:53.560 public so the public has now done
00:41:59.720 something that if if the world is
00:42:02.020 predictable in this way it should change
00:42:05.120 him because it's one thing to have your
00:42:08.080 your loved ones say good things about you
00:42:10.200 you like it of course but it doesn't
00:42:12.660 change you but when your enemies show you
00:42:16.340 kindness when you're down that can change
00:42:20.160 you that that can turn you into that can
00:42:23.240 rewire you that can turn you into a
00:42:25.020 different person because it's just an
00:42:26.860 experience you don't normally have and
00:42:29.220 when you do it could be profound so when
00:42:31.920 the president says he's not going to
00:42:33.560 forget it here's how I internalize that
00:42:36.980 that he's going to work harder for the
00:42:38.900 country that that he owes the country
00:42:43.720 something that's what it felt like it felt
00:42:47.040 like I owe you a favor and it felt real so
00:42:50.940 I think that was meaningful
00:42:51.980 there's of course CNN is trying to turn the
00:42:57.360 story into something about did he know he
00:42:59.400 was infected and blah blah blah I'm going
00:43:02.460 to guess that there's nothing to that but
00:43:05.880 they have to have news so they'll be
00:43:08.520 chasing that down all right here's an idea
00:43:10.900 for paying off the national debt you ready
00:43:13.620 you know what convalescent plasma is right
00:43:18.000 so you take somebody who's infected you
00:43:20.820 manipulate their blood and you take out the
00:43:23.240 good stuff and you get the antibodies and
00:43:25.720 use those antibodies to help somebody else
00:43:28.240 and that's called convalescent plasma
00:43:32.000 suppose we take Trump's recovered you know
00:43:37.740 once he's recovered suppose we take the
00:43:39.760 convalescent plasma from Trump and then
00:43:43.180 clone it because I think he can do that
00:43:46.140 right you can you can clone his antibodies
00:43:48.620 so you clone his antibodies and then you
00:43:51.800 bottle it and you sell it as tiger blood
00:43:53.860 Trump tiger blood now let me ask you this
00:43:58.300 because because we're all irrational humans
00:44:03.060 and we like things like brands you know
00:44:05.920 you'd rather buy a Nike something or an Adidas
00:44:09.300 something than some other brand we're very
00:44:12.040 brand conscious and given that serious
00:44:18.040 question if you had a choice of buying let's
00:44:23.140 say from your health care provider Trump
00:44:25.620 literally Trump convalescent serum that's you
00:44:30.620 know cloned from his actual antibodies or a
00:44:33.920 generic one which one would you pay more
00:44:37.300 for if they were identical in a bill you know
00:44:42.780 in usefulness there was no difference in
00:44:45.360 utility the generic convalescent plasma or
00:44:49.600 the plasma that you know was derived from
00:44:51.720 don't from Donald Trump's own antibodies you
00:44:55.800 know you'd pay more for it you'd pay a lot more
00:44:58.900 for it I don't know what convalescent plasma
00:45:02.780 costs already but you know people would pay
00:45:06.020 twice as much for that you know you would
00:45:07.980 so it's a fun idea but not entirely impractical
00:45:12.800 yeah you can maybe make some of it give some
00:45:16.980 of it and it'd be pretty popular
00:45:19.120 all right when president Trump did his video
00:45:24.100 of course the two movie analogy came out and so
00:45:30.020 Gabriel Sherman said this just watched Gabriel
00:45:34.460 Sherman is let's see who is he he's a vanity fair
00:45:39.180 special correspondent author of the loudest voice in
00:45:43.380 the room etc so he's no no Trump supporter I'm guessing he
00:45:48.280 said just watch Trump a hospital video a second time his
00:45:51.900 breathing is clearly labored he seems to be leaning on
00:45:55.460 the table for support and there's so much fear in his
00:45:58.700 eyes what did you see any of that did you I saw him
00:46:05.900 leaning on the table do you know why because if you're
00:46:10.100 sitting at a table and you're and you're not leaning on
00:46:12.700 it with your you know with your arms like this you look kind
00:46:16.860 of dorky because you're just sitting sitting behind the
00:46:19.440 table you have to put your your arms on the table look at look
00:46:24.360 at somebody on camera with their arms on the table looks
00:46:28.900 powerful you're leaning forward you're not leaning on your
00:46:32.120 arms you're leaning in it's a power power pose so but
00:46:38.320 Gabriel Sherman saw that as he had to be leaning for support
00:46:42.900 again that's knowing nothing about photography any if if if Peter Duke is
00:46:51.500 watching this and sometimes he does professional photographer Peter let me
00:46:56.420 ask you this question true or false it's a better picture when the when the
00:47:01.840 president is leaning forward on on a desk right now I don't know that he does I'm
00:47:07.440 trying to remember if he does it for the addresses from the Oval Office but I
00:47:11.440 think he does if we looked at an Oval Office address wouldn't wouldn't he be
00:47:15.760 on the table because it just looks weak if you just your hands are by your side
00:47:20.520 at a table or a desk and then I certainly couldn't tell that he was
00:47:27.360 breathing having breathing difficulty I didn't see any of that and I didn't see
00:47:31.900 any fear in his eyes did you see any fear in his eyes now of course he would
00:47:37.220 have to be concerned about his health who wouldn't be but fear in his eyes I
00:47:42.540 don't really see any okay all right here's another wild card for you on how
00:47:51.840 people will process this Trump situation I asked on a Twitter poll just this
00:47:57.640 morning I asked if based on what you know about the White House's own procedures
00:48:02.940 for social distancing and for mask wearing is your personal family
00:48:07.940 situation better or worse than the White House as far as what you've heard
00:48:14.020 reported and what did you what do you think people said they said about about
00:48:18.620 80% of the people who answered said that their family situation is similar to or
00:48:24.660 worse in terms of protecting themselves than the White House 80% were were
00:48:31.860 handling their own personal situation very similarly to how the White House was
00:48:38.080 handling it for themselves now does that make it smart that the White House was
00:48:44.620 only doing as much as average families no no medically and politically and
00:48:51.320 everything else they should have done better but when you see the president let me put
00:48:57.360 it in analogy terms when the president eats a fast food whether it's McDonald's or
00:49:04.380 Taco Bell and he does it conspicuously and publicly what do the experts say well I'm
00:49:11.820 not so sure you should be eating junk food in front of the public you're setting an
00:49:16.820 example you know that's not really the healthiest thing maybe you should eat
00:49:21.520 something healthier than they would eat something healthier that's what the experts
00:49:24.840 will say right what do the voters say the voters say hey I eat at McDonald's too
00:49:32.780 the voters say hey I eat a Taco Bell hey the president eats a Taco Bell I eat a Taco Bell
00:49:42.420 that's what the voters say so when you see the president being lax with the social
00:49:51.120 distancing or the White House in general and lax with the masks do you say to yourself man I don't
00:49:58.080 do that that's not how I act and he needs to be better than me some people do some people will say
00:50:05.820 exactly that are those were those people going to vote for the president anyway nope no they
00:50:13.320 weren't I'm guessing that this is more of a bonding experience than anybody is ever going to
00:50:22.060 recognize when you see your president doing the same thing that you do that doesn't make you like
00:50:29.440 him less even if you're sure he shouldn't have done that I'm sure the president should not eat junk
00:50:35.880 food but how do I feel when he does I feel like he's like me well he's actually he's not like me
00:50:43.520 because I don't eat much junk food but I think he's like ordinary people and that certainly helps
00:50:48.440 all right so those are my big points for today uh the part which will be taken out of context
00:51:01.520 is the conspiracy theory parts so look for that today and uh have you noticed that the the the breadth
00:51:11.080 of news just sort of stopped I have to think that there were probably other surprises that were
00:51:17.900 waiting to happen but maybe the other surprises are on hold because you know there was going to be
00:51:23.680 more surprise right between now and election day so you can see how the news is an artificial
00:51:30.500 construct because it's not an accident that there's less news on holidays and weekends
00:51:36.460 you know I mean there's a reason for that because people aren't working but there they feel like
00:51:44.100 there's there are not even natural disasters on holidays have you ever noticed that it's as if
00:51:49.700 it's as if the news in general knows to stop when we're not going to be paying attention and now that
00:51:56.660 everything is about the president's health at the moment for about a week it won't matter what
00:52:03.020 Joe Biden does in fact the only thing we're going to care about what Joe Biden does is what he does
00:52:10.300 vis-a-vis Trump I'm not sure I use a vis-a-vis correctly there but let's say I did and so so Trump
00:52:20.720 by no plan of his own but because he's the more interesting person in all in all cases because he's
00:52:27.960 got a big story happening it just sucks all the attention away from Biden and while I think it was
00:52:34.500 smart of Biden to do that that well I'm not going to do any any any hit ads but then of course he did
00:52:44.980 them anyway that was probably a good play but it also diminishes his importance if I ask you who is
00:52:54.420 more important the president of the United States commander-in-chief who currently has coronavirus well
00:53:01.080 that's a 10 and a 10 you know you can't care about many things more than that except you know
00:53:06.920 an immediate emergency but in terms of how important that is to the country to the world to your own
00:53:13.020 psychological well-being President Trump in the hospital that's a 10 now how does Joe Biden compete
00:53:21.580 with a 10 what's it what's his best play there's almost nothing he can do he could go around in his
00:53:29.800 little weak-ass train tour or whatever he can talk to some donors he can do some zoom calls
00:53:35.900 but everything that Joe Biden can do is on a scale of one to 10 is a one or maybe a two in total
00:53:45.560 importance emotional impact relevance size wattage he so so so Biden is just gonna be shooting ones and
00:53:56.360 two with his little BB gun while the president is in full nuclear you know maximum newsworthy mode
00:54:08.040 while hardly trying so that's advantage Trump if I you know I said in the beginning when when this all
00:54:18.360 broke the coronavirus stuff with Trump when this broke
00:54:22.260 uh yeah when this broke uh I thought you have to wait a little bit to see how people are processing it
00:54:32.280 you can't immediately guess on moment one oh well this will play out this way for him or against him
00:54:38.580 you have to see how it's settling out a little bit and as I'm watching it start to settle
00:54:43.860 the thing that I'm I'm seeing as a dominant theme is one Trump will get all the attention
00:54:49.800 to he's he's more relatable probably more empathetic and probably we care about him more just because
00:54:57.080 he's you know sick and and given the Boris Johnson effect and uh given the Reagan you know assassination
00:55:06.800 attempt to effect if I had to bet on this I bet it's going to help him now that could be just me being
00:55:15.040 uh you know too close to it and I've got some bias in that but I showed my reasons so now you know why
00:55:20.800 all right that's all I got for now and I will talk to you tomorrow