Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1144 Scott Adams： Trump and the Campaign. What Happens to the Country's Psychology Now？

00:00:00.420 Bum bum bum, bum bum bum, bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum 1.00

00:00:13.000 Well, it's time for the simultaneous sip, or as somebody on YouTube refer to it as, the concurrent chug.

00:00:20.660 Well, you can chug or you can sip. It's very permissive here.

00:00:24.940 So come on in, come on in. Got lots to talk about.

00:00:28.380 But first, first, it's time for the Simultaneous Sip,

00:00:32.900 and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein,

00:00:36.000 a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:39.680 Fill it with your favorite liquid I like, coffee.

00:00:43.640 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine,

00:00:46.280 the other day, the thing that makes everything better,

00:00:49.320 including the air quality in California.

00:00:52.360 It's called the Simultaneous Sip, and it happens now.

00:00:55.060 Go.

00:00:57.760 Yes, speaking of air quality,

00:01:03.800 I've been living in a smoke-infested hellhole for weeks now,

00:01:08.640 but the air quality today has improved a little bit.

00:01:12.580 So today, I might be able to go outside.

00:01:16.600 That would be pretty exciting.

00:01:18.660 Have all of you experienced going outdoors?

00:01:23.300 Imagine having coronavirus,

00:01:24.900 but you also can't go outside because it's too dangerous.

00:01:30.480 That's my world in California.

00:01:33.020 But enough about me.

00:01:34.360 Let's talk about all the fun news.

00:01:38.400 As others have noted, I think Jason Miller noted this first,

00:01:41.800 did you notice that when Trump did his little video from the hospital, Walter Reed Hospital,

00:01:51.920 did you notice, or was it, am I the only one who noticed this,

00:01:55.140 and Jason Miller, I guess, noticed it too,

00:01:57.680 that he didn't say a word about white supremacy?

00:02:00.400 So, I don't know about you, but now I wonder if he's changed back to being in favor of it again.

00:02:10.240 Because if you don't hear from him to denounce white supremacy every, I don't know,

00:02:15.800 at least every 24 hours,

00:02:18.040 every eight hours would be ideal,

00:02:20.060 but at least every 24 hours he's going to have to work it into a sentence.

00:02:24.180 Otherwise, how can we really be sure?

00:02:27.700 Sure, he's denounced them 20, 30 times in public,

00:02:31.480 but sometimes that's not enough.

00:02:35.400 So, we'll be watching for that.

00:02:36.960 There are two new polls coming out about Biden and Trump,

00:02:41.400 and these polls seem to indicate a problem.

00:02:48.220 There's a problem here.

00:02:49.480 The problem being with the polls themselves.

00:02:53.480 All right, so here's one.

00:02:54.760 The NBC Wall Street Journal poll shows a huge jump in support for Biden,

00:03:01.400 and that he would be at 53% compared to Trump's 39%.

00:03:07.180 If that's true, if this poll is even a little bit legitimate,

00:03:12.260 Trump has no chance.

00:03:14.220 He's done.

00:03:15.900 Why does my nose always itch when I go on camera?

00:03:19.480 But, on the other side of the spectrum,

00:03:24.680 we've got the Zogby poll,

00:03:26.780 in which the very opposite happened.

00:03:30.240 So, in the other world, the other reality, in Zogby,

00:03:34.000 Biden's lead has been cut down to two,

00:03:37.800 so it's only a 49 to 47 difference.

00:03:41.320 Now, that's really different.

00:03:43.820 It would be one thing if both polls showed that the direction of things was the same,

00:03:51.200 but maybe one of them showed that it was even more in one direction than the other one did.

00:03:56.500 I would think, well, those polls are different,

00:04:00.540 but at least they seem to be heading in the right direction.

00:04:03.920 But if one goes north and one goes south,

00:04:09.240 based on the same world events and taken roughly at the same time,

00:04:14.160 I don't think I trust both of those polls.

00:04:17.820 I'm not sure if you can trust any poll these days,

00:04:20.120 but I certainly don't trust them together.

00:04:22.360 For those of you who don't pay attention as much,

00:04:28.000 what do you know about the NBC polls and NBC News?

00:04:34.000 Well, I'm just telling you what's been reported.

00:04:37.000 People who are smarter than I am

00:04:38.760 would tell you that the NBC polls are essentially controlled by our own intelligence agencies.

00:04:47.440 Do I know that personally?

00:04:49.400 No.

00:04:49.740 I don't personally have any information about that.

00:04:53.360 But smart people say that NBC is largely controlled by our own intelligence agencies.

00:05:00.420 So what would our intelligence agencies want us to think about the upcoming election?

00:05:07.480 They might want us to think that President Trump can't win,

00:05:11.380 might depress the vote.

00:05:15.740 So I wouldn't trust anything out of an NBC poll.

00:05:19.740 But if it turns out that there are other polls that agree with it,

00:05:23.220 well, then maybe you take it a little bit more seriously.

00:05:26.760 But we'll wait on that.

00:05:30.040 In my opinion, the worst take on the coronavirus goes like this.

00:05:36.080 Masks definitely don't work.

00:05:37.940 Now, I'm not an epidemiologist.

00:05:45.300 I'm not a mask expert.

00:05:49.040 And I am certainly open to the idea, certainly a possibility, strong possibility, really,

00:05:56.560 that masks don't help as much as the experts would like us to believe.

00:06:01.160 Totally possible.

00:06:02.200 If you said, I'm not sure if masks work, I'd say, well, there's a, that's a reasonable opinion right there.

00:06:11.120 If you said, I'm pretty sure they do, you might be right, you might be wrong, but that's a reasonable opinion.

00:06:18.980 It's a reasonable opinion because it would agree with the consensus of experts, as far as I know, in every major country.

00:06:28.340 So all the major countries got on the same page, which is unusual, about masks having data to support that they work.

00:06:37.340 So if you said, probably they work, and a lot of the experts are on the same page, even if these experts are all over the place,

00:06:46.960 normally you expect experts to be more diverse in their opinions, but they all seem, at least the consensus, not every expert,

00:06:55.660 but the consensus in every major country, exactly the same.

00:07:01.580 That means something.

00:07:03.660 Here's the worst take.

00:07:05.600 Masks definitely don't work.

00:07:08.000 Now, is it possible, is it possibly true, that masks don't make any difference,

00:07:15.560 and all of the consensus of experts in all the countries are all wrong?

00:07:21.680 Is that possible?

00:07:23.660 Yes, totally.

00:07:25.500 Totally possible.

00:07:28.180 What is the smart risk-reward way to play it?

00:07:31.560 Suppose you are pretty sure they don't work, but it's more of a hunch, more of a skepticism.

00:07:39.440 Maybe you saw some studies that say, hey, the particle is only this big, but there's so many holes in a mask.

00:07:50.060 If you looked at it under a microscope, the holes would be this size, the particle would be the size of a BB.

00:07:56.680 How is a hole the size of a basketball hoop going to stop a BB?

00:08:02.000 That, of course, is a very bad take.

00:08:07.620 Here's what you should be thinking.

00:08:09.820 What does that virus ride on?

00:08:11.940 Does it travel alone?

00:08:14.200 It does not.

00:08:15.080 It rides on air droplets.

00:08:17.360 Is the air droplet small enough to go through the hole that's the size of a basketball hoop, relatively speaking?

00:08:26.520 And the answer is, some are, some get through, some do not.

00:08:32.940 That's called friction.

00:08:34.900 Some get through and some do not.

00:08:37.820 So if some get through and some do not, what would that tell you about the total amount of virus that's being spread into the room?

00:08:46.940 I know what you're saying.

00:08:48.640 Scott, Scott, Scott.

00:08:49.640 I've seen the video where they tested it.

00:08:52.960 The mask doesn't stop the air from coming out.

00:08:56.040 It just comes out the sides.

00:08:58.560 It still comes out.

00:09:00.380 Same amount of air.

00:09:01.860 It has to go somewhere.

00:09:03.580 So it's not like staying within the mask, right?

00:09:06.720 It's going somewhere.

00:09:08.300 That's right.

00:09:09.700 But it's not going as far, is it?

00:09:12.020 If your mask is sort of leaking out the edges, it's staying near you.

00:09:16.660 If you take the mask off and you're a big talker,

00:09:19.740 Hey, what you doing?

00:09:21.280 Let me talk to you right into your face. 1.00

00:09:23.700 You're shooting a cannon of virus into the other person's mouth and eyes. 0.54

00:09:29.520 Is it the same?

00:09:31.880 Maybe.

00:09:33.180 Maybe.

00:09:34.020 I wouldn't rule out the possibility that if you really could study this thing,

00:09:38.720 and apparently it's hard to study, so you really can't,

00:09:41.400 that in the real world,

00:09:42.680 maybe the virus coming out the side floats in the air.

00:09:48.460 It doesn't matter that it was local to you because it all spreads out, maybe.

00:09:53.460 I'm open to that.

00:09:54.840 It could be that they don't work.

00:09:57.140 But what are the odds?

00:09:58.240 If you're going to play the odds here, what's the smart way to play this?

00:10:03.520 Well, if you've got some special condition where wearing a mask might be dangerous to you personally,

00:10:09.260 well, that's a personal decision.

00:10:11.140 But in terms of the risk-reward,

00:10:14.300 given that the experts in every country,

00:10:16.980 the consensus, not every expert,

00:10:19.200 but the consensus is very strongly, unambiguously wear a mask,

00:10:24.660 maybe you ought to take that seriously on a risk-reward level.

00:10:29.280 Again, doesn't mean that there's a 100% chance that they really make a big difference.

00:10:36.440 But I would say the odds are pretty good.

00:10:39.400 30% chance?

00:10:41.260 Suppose there were a 30% chance it would make a difference.

00:10:45.260 Would you think that's worth it?

00:10:47.760 I would say so.

00:10:49.060 I would think a 30% chance that masks make a difference would be enough.

00:10:54.660 Yeah, and even if you add into it the fact that people will touch their mask and all of that,

00:11:01.900 all of that's been taken into consideration by the experts who study these things

00:11:07.680 and have figured out that the data suggests that it works.

00:11:12.760 Here's a good rule for determining what is true and what is fake in terms of the news.

00:11:20.500 It's in my book, Loser Think, and the trick goes like this.

00:11:26.540 If you see something reported as true on CNN and untrue on Fox News, it's untrue.

00:11:35.780 Not because Fox News says it's untrue,

00:11:38.520 but because there are two news organizations equally capable,

00:11:42.360 and if they don't both say it's true,

00:11:46.080 about 95% of the time it's not true.

00:11:50.520 That's also reversed.

00:11:52.780 If Fox News says it's definitely true,

00:11:55.600 and CNN says, no, that never happened,

00:11:58.440 there's a 95% chance it didn't happen.

00:12:01.580 But if both of them say something is true,

00:12:04.480 the odds of it being true, very high.

00:12:09.080 Both Fox News and CNN and MSNBC and every other network,

00:12:14.500 left and right, report unambiguously,

00:12:18.580 masks are important, right?

00:12:21.260 Now, they do have, on Fox News especially,

00:12:24.080 they'll have guests who will be on the side of opening up

00:12:28.620 and taking our chances and getting herd immunity and all that.

00:12:32.280 But it's always in context.

00:12:33.540 Next, they'll still bring on their own medical guy

00:12:36.960 right after the guy who says maybe masks are not that important.

00:12:41.140 They'll still bring on their medical guy to say,

00:12:43.220 yeah, masks are important, the experts agree.

00:12:45.880 So that's all I want to say.

00:12:47.660 You can certainly say you're not sure if masks work,

00:12:50.740 but it is not a good take to say,

00:12:53.980 therefore, we shouldn't wear them.

00:12:56.420 That the logic isn't there.

00:12:59.000 The logic is, might be a good chance they work,

00:13:02.080 given the stakes, it's worth a shot.

00:13:04.580 It probably won't kill you.

00:13:06.500 I've got a question about this Rose Garden super spreader situation.

00:13:11.840 Probably you have the same question, right?

00:13:15.260 And the question goes like this.

00:13:16.880 Why is one event such a spready situation and others are not?

00:13:26.680 Because they're not that different, are they?

00:13:29.160 What would make the Rose Garden event so infectious,

00:13:35.220 but yet let's say the normal Trump rallies were not?

00:13:38.600 Let's say the Black Lives Matter rallies were not?

00:13:43.020 It seems like there are a lot of things that were not,

00:13:45.780 but this one was.

00:13:48.200 Now, how can you explain that?

00:13:50.420 Well, the most obvious explanation would be this.

00:13:54.460 Statistics are not even.

00:13:56.920 There is a thing called statistical clustering.

00:14:00.260 It's one of the reasons that you sometimes think,

00:14:02.540 oh, no, the water is polluted in this town

00:14:05.720 because this town has an unusual amount of a certain kind of cancer.

00:14:10.380 Sometimes that's exactly what's going on.

00:14:13.680 Sometimes you have, in fact,

00:14:15.740 found that this town has a problem with the water

00:14:18.040 and the water is giving people cancer.

00:14:20.460 Sometimes.

00:14:21.640 Other times, it's just a fluke of statistics.

00:14:25.340 And when you look into it, you just find out,

00:14:27.500 oh, it's actually fairly common

00:14:29.780 that there will be little clusters of unexplained things

00:14:33.520 for every situation.

00:14:36.480 And those little clusters don't mean anything

00:14:38.620 because they're normal.

00:14:40.220 So it could be that the Rose Garden situation

00:14:43.060 was just one of those.

00:14:45.520 Just a complete coincidence

00:14:47.360 that there happened to be infected people

00:14:50.120 more than usual who attended the event

00:14:52.980 and were not aware of it.

00:14:55.600 Could be just statistics.

00:14:57.600 But I ask you this.

00:14:58.740 Could there ever have been a more perfect place

00:15:03.520 from the perspective of the anti-Trumpers?

00:15:08.220 What would be the most perfect place

00:15:10.360 for a super-spreading thing to break out?

00:15:13.980 Well, number one would be at a rally, right?

00:15:17.160 A rally would make the case for Biden

00:15:19.520 because if a rally broke out,

00:15:21.140 he could say,

00:15:21.900 see what you've done. 0.95

00:15:23.180 You're killing your own supporters.

00:15:24.760 But I've not heard much in the way 0.88

00:15:28.440 of rallies causing spreading, have you?

00:15:31.580 Maybe it's harder to tell

00:15:32.940 because the public doesn't get tested as much.

00:15:37.420 But the first thing you have to ask yourself is,

00:15:41.040 huh, that would be a pretty big coincidence.

00:15:43.920 So we would have two coincidences.

00:15:46.120 One, that this Rose Garden event

00:15:48.540 coincidentally had all the right variables

00:15:51.100 for a super-spreading event,

00:15:53.140 whereas others do not.

00:15:55.340 But also by coincidence,

00:15:57.740 so this is a coincidence on top of a coincidence,

00:16:00.940 it would be the most politically powerful thing to do.

00:16:04.620 Because giving COVID to a bunch of professional politicians,

00:16:09.760 mostly Republican,

00:16:10.760 would be more popular,

00:16:14.200 let's say,

00:16:15.560 if you were a Democrat,

00:16:17.780 than giving it to citizens.

00:16:20.340 Because you would just have empathy

00:16:21.800 if citizens get it.

00:16:23.580 Do you have the same amount of empathy

00:16:25.320 if a Republican who didn't wear a mask

00:16:28.200 in public

00:16:29.380 got it?

00:16:31.780 Right?

00:16:32.500 So that's a coincidence

00:16:34.340 that it happened,

00:16:36.280 that it was super-spready

00:16:37.780 in this one event,

00:16:38.760 on top of a coincidence,

00:16:41.360 it was also the most

00:16:42.940 politically powerful place

00:16:45.540 it could happen.

00:16:47.080 Two big coincidences, right?

00:16:50.900 Here's a filter.

00:16:53.840 Oh, here's another coincidence.

00:16:55.460 It happened exactly the week,

00:16:58.200 relatively speaking,

00:16:59.280 that the 2016 video dropped,

00:17:03.580 that the video dropped

00:17:05.880 of the Access Hollywood tape.

00:17:08.760 Now,

00:17:09.400 why did the Access Hollywood tape

00:17:11.660 drop exactly when it did,

00:17:13.840 in 2016?

00:17:15.360 Was that a coincidence?

00:17:16.960 Was that the week

00:17:17.840 that somebody found the video?

00:17:20.180 No.

00:17:21.180 That was an engineered drop,

00:17:24.160 because it was close enough

00:17:25.580 to the election

00:17:26.220 that it didn't look like

00:17:27.680 we could forget it.

00:17:29.360 And it wasn't anything

00:17:30.240 the president could do about it,

00:17:31.720 he just had to live with it.

00:17:33.260 There was no response to it,

00:17:34.960 all you could say

00:17:35.760 is a locker room talk,

00:17:37.960 you know,

00:17:38.320 doing my best.

00:17:40.240 So,

00:17:41.280 if you were going to play

00:17:43.220 an intentional dirty trick,

00:17:45.400 it would happen this week.

00:17:47.380 So that would be a coincidence.

00:17:49.420 So you've got a coincidence

00:17:50.540 that the Rose Garden

00:17:51.900 was the super-spready event,

00:17:54.360 a coincidence,

00:17:55.280 it's the most politically

00:17:56.380 powerful thing

00:17:57.500 where it could have happened,

00:17:59.340 and also,

00:18:01.160 it involved

00:18:01.860 the Supreme Court nomination.

00:18:04.340 What was it that we heard

00:18:05.480 from the Democrats

00:18:06.300 about the Supreme Court nomination?

00:18:09.000 What did Chuck Schumer say

00:18:11.000 about the fact

00:18:12.220 that the Republicans

00:18:13.060 were going to push

00:18:13.880 through the nomination?

00:18:15.540 I believe he said,

00:18:17.400 everything's on the table.

00:18:20.000 Everything's on the table.

00:18:21.560 And I think he sort of meant it,

00:18:23.540 everything's on the table

00:18:24.600 as a strategy.

00:18:26.020 So now you've got

00:18:26.800 the coincidence

00:18:27.440 it was in the Rose Garden,

00:18:28.900 and not in other places.

00:18:30.820 A coincidence,

00:18:31.640 it was the perfect event

00:18:33.560 because it had to do

00:18:34.600 with the Supreme Court

00:18:36.500 and it was mostly Republicans.

00:18:39.020 It was,

00:18:39.860 it was during a time

00:18:43.020 when Schumer said,

00:18:44.140 anything's on the table.

00:18:46.600 And

00:18:47.120 it happened,

00:18:49.960 there was one other coincidence there.

00:18:53.240 Now,

00:18:54.180 does that mean

00:18:55.760 that there was some mischief involved

00:18:58.000 and that maybe

00:18:59.160 the infections

00:19:00.380 were intentional?

00:19:01.740 Nope.

00:19:02.880 There is zero evidence

00:19:05.000 of anybody

00:19:06.380 intentionally infecting anybody.

00:19:08.340 So let me say that

00:19:09.240 as clearly as possible.

00:19:10.960 There is zero evidence

00:19:12.720 that there's anything

00:19:14.680 except just natural infection

00:19:16.520 going on.

00:19:17.300 Because it could easily happen

00:19:18.820 with just coincidence

00:19:20.460 and chance

00:19:21.360 and natural infection.

00:19:22.740 You always have to be careful

00:19:23.840 of coincidence.

00:19:24.500 But I will give you

00:19:26.080 this frame

00:19:26.880 just to

00:19:28.340 have as a check.

00:19:30.380 I've told you

00:19:31.300 in other situations

00:19:32.500 that one of the ways

00:19:34.180 you can

00:19:35.820 predict

00:19:36.760 if there will be

00:19:37.740 bad behavior

00:19:38.660 is this.

00:19:40.500 Whenever you have

00:19:41.280 a situation

00:19:41.960 in the world

00:19:43.300 in which

00:19:44.420 the upside potential

00:19:46.780 for doing something

00:19:48.400 illegal or devious

00:19:49.740 is very high,

00:19:51.240 like you could

00:19:52.220 make a billion dollars

00:19:53.460 or

00:19:54.300 you could change

00:19:55.840 the government

00:19:56.400 to the United States.

00:19:57.820 Very high stakes.

00:19:59.360 So whenever you have

00:20:00.100 high stakes

00:20:01.020 if something bad

00:20:03.180 happens

00:20:03.600 and you have

00:20:04.680 this other condition

00:20:05.680 pretty much

00:20:07.320 no chance

00:20:08.220 of getting caught.

00:20:09.580 If your odds

00:20:10.540 of getting caught

00:20:11.440 are just

00:20:12.840 really,

00:20:13.720 really small

00:20:14.380 but your potential

00:20:16.000 gain is gigantic

00:20:17.440 how often

00:20:19.120 does mischief

00:20:20.240 or illegal actions

00:20:21.800 happen

00:20:22.240 under that condition?

00:20:24.860 Payoff

00:20:25.420 is gigantic

00:20:26.280 the risk

00:20:27.700 of getting caught

00:20:28.500 for doing something

00:20:29.380 to get that payoff

00:20:30.420 trivial.

00:20:32.780 How often

00:20:33.400 oh and then

00:20:34.200 I'll add a third variable

00:20:35.600 there are lots

00:20:36.840 of people involved

00:20:37.940 so let's say

00:20:39.240 in this case

00:20:39.840 you've got lots

00:20:40.540 of foreign adversaries

00:20:41.780 who would like

00:20:42.720 to see something

00:20:43.380 bad happen

00:20:44.020 to the president

00:20:44.660 but you also

00:20:45.660 have lots

00:20:46.080 of Democrats

00:20:46.820 individually

00:20:47.900 and as a group

00:20:49.200 so you've got

00:20:50.220 lots and lots

00:20:51.160 and lots

00:20:51.600 of people

00:20:52.040 who would have

00:20:53.600 interest

00:20:54.160 in doing something

00:20:55.120 that had a gigantic 0.50

00:20:56.220 payoff

00:20:56.840 minuscule risk.

00:21:00.800 How often

00:21:01.340 in our world

00:21:02.240 will mischief

00:21:03.840 happen

00:21:04.220 under those conditions?

00:21:06.140 And the answer

00:21:06.540 is every time.

00:21:08.440 The answer

00:21:08.960 is every time.

00:21:11.300 Now

00:21:11.640 could this be

00:21:12.600 the exception?

00:21:13.260 could this be

00:21:14.860 because the stakes

00:21:16.040 are so high

00:21:16.840 and if you got

00:21:18.040 caught doing

00:21:18.620 this thing

00:21:19.120 even though

00:21:19.500 the chances

00:21:19.960 of getting caught

00:21:20.640 are really

00:21:21.480 really small

00:21:22.140 if you didn't

00:21:23.360 get caught

00:21:23.880 it's pretty bad.

00:21:26.380 I mean

00:21:26.700 it's about as bad

00:21:27.480 as it could possibly

00:21:28.320 be if you get caught

00:21:29.300 doing something

00:21:29.780 like that.

00:21:31.160 Let's take an example.

00:21:33.220 Let's take

00:21:33.840 insider trading.

00:21:36.280 If you do

00:21:37.180 insider trading

00:21:38.220 do you have

00:21:39.300 a potential

00:21:39.920 for a gigantic

00:21:40.840 upside?

00:21:41.600 yeah

00:21:42.320 depending on the

00:21:43.500 trade

00:21:43.780 it could be

00:21:44.280 pretty big.

00:21:45.460 What are the odds

00:21:46.160 of getting caught

00:21:47.160 at insider trading?

00:21:51.020 Not as high

00:21:52.200 as they should be

00:21:53.060 right?

00:21:53.460 That's the reason

00:21:54.100 that happens so much

00:21:55.140 because there are

00:21:56.220 situations in which

00:21:57.440 people say

00:21:58.020 you know

00:21:59.220 all I have to do

00:22:00.460 is mention this

00:22:01.300 to my cousin

00:22:02.000 and nobody's

00:22:03.300 going to know

00:22:03.780 it came from me

00:22:04.520 just my cousin

00:22:05.820 will have a good

00:22:06.560 stock trade

00:22:07.740 and maybe

00:22:09.420 I'll work

00:22:09.820 something out

00:22:10.320 you know

00:22:10.860 on the side

00:22:11.560 with my cousin

00:22:12.420 as a payback

00:22:13.560 for this

00:22:13.980 insider information.

00:22:15.840 Well then it

00:22:16.220 happens almost

00:22:16.780 every time.

00:22:18.820 So maybe

00:22:19.520 this is the

00:22:20.100 exception.

00:22:21.100 It could be

00:22:21.540 the one time

00:22:22.280 that there was

00:22:22.900 no mischief

00:22:23.600 and that it

00:22:24.620 just happened

00:22:25.120 to coincidentally

00:22:26.400 line up

00:22:27.120 with exactly

00:22:28.500 the way

00:22:29.020 it would look

00:22:29.780 if it was

00:22:31.380 done

00:22:31.720 intentionally.

00:22:32.620 But again

00:22:35.540 let me back

00:22:36.420 up to the

00:22:36.900 first point

00:22:37.380 if you were

00:22:37.900 going to

00:22:38.120 place a bet

00:22:38.980 on this

00:22:40.160 or any other

00:22:41.040 conspiracy theory

00:22:42.280 being true

00:22:42.900 you should

00:22:43.680 probably bet

00:22:44.120 against it.

00:22:45.240 You know

00:22:45.400 if you had

00:22:47.380 to put your

00:22:47.780 money on it

00:22:48.600 I'd bet

00:22:49.660 against it.

00:22:53.120 Yeah

00:22:53.260 Martha Stewart

00:22:55.000 did have a

00:22:55.700 little issue

00:22:56.420 with that.

00:22:57.540 Alright

00:22:57.720 so I'm not

00:23:00.840 saying that

00:23:01.520 there was

00:23:02.520 mischief

00:23:02.980 I'm just

00:23:03.400 saying that

00:23:04.000 every condition

00:23:05.460 that would

00:23:07.140 support that

00:23:07.820 theory exists.

00:23:09.120 That's all.

00:23:11.600 I've talked

00:23:12.360 a lot about

00:23:12.940 this being

00:23:13.480 or about

00:23:14.680 this would

00:23:15.840 have a

00:23:16.280 third act.

00:23:17.520 In other

00:23:17.900 words in a

00:23:18.460 movie the

00:23:19.200 third act

00:23:19.920 is about

00:23:20.820 two thirds

00:23:21.940 through the

00:23:22.380 movie where

00:23:23.580 there's something

00:23:24.940 that happens

00:23:25.640 that looks

00:23:26.460 like the

00:23:26.920 hero can't

00:23:28.340 possibly escape.

00:23:30.180 The hero

00:23:30.720 is doomed

00:23:31.500 there's just

00:23:32.100 no way you

00:23:32.800 can get

00:23:33.120 out of

00:23:33.420 this trap

00:23:34.100 and then

00:23:35.180 the hero

00:23:35.620 does somehow

00:23:36.460 against all

00:23:37.280 odds.

00:23:37.900 That's the

00:23:38.260 third act

00:23:38.800 in movie

00:23:39.440 scripts.

00:23:41.500 In 2016

00:23:42.660 as I

00:23:43.400 mentioned

00:23:43.740 the

00:23:44.240 Access

00:23:45.080 Hollywood

00:23:45.480 tape

00:23:47.740 was probably

00:23:48.440 his third

00:23:48.920 act.

00:23:50.320 There are

00:23:50.960 usually some

00:23:51.560 fake third

00:23:52.340 acts before

00:23:52.980 the real

00:23:53.380 one even

00:23:53.880 in a movie.

00:23:54.860 It looks

00:23:55.220 like there's

00:23:55.620 a problem

00:23:56.080 and it's

00:23:56.420 like ah

00:23:56.860 okay that

00:23:57.640 wasn't as

00:23:58.080 big a

00:23:58.380 problem.

00:23:59.360 The hero

00:23:59.700 solved it.

00:24:01.040 And then

00:24:01.620 there's another

00:24:02.080 one that's

00:24:02.380 like ah here

00:24:02.860 comes the

00:24:03.220 third act.

00:24:04.420 Okay that

00:24:04.920 wasn't such a

00:24:05.720 big problem

00:24:06.200 and he did

00:24:06.820 solve that.

00:24:07.780 Oh here it

00:24:08.280 is.

00:24:08.520 Here's the

00:24:08.900 real one.

00:24:09.680 And the

00:24:09.980 real one is

00:24:10.540 so big you

00:24:12.160 just can't get

00:24:12.800 out of it.

00:24:13.760 So what would

00:24:14.440 be a bigger

00:24:14.940 problem than

00:24:15.720 this president

00:24:16.420 being accused

00:24:17.560 of killing

00:24:18.520 200,000 people 1.00

00:24:19.840 with his bad

00:24:20.800 management of

00:24:21.480 coronavirus

00:24:22.040 according to

00:24:23.240 his critics

00:24:23.780 and that

00:24:24.680 he gets

00:24:25.160 it himself

00:24:25.700 by not

00:24:26.640 following his

00:24:27.220 own guidelines.

00:24:28.740 Could that

00:24:29.380 be more

00:24:30.760 of a third

00:24:31.320 act?

00:24:33.100 It's hard

00:24:33.720 to imagine

00:24:34.200 because you

00:24:35.220 know his

00:24:35.520 taxes came

00:24:36.440 up nothing

00:24:37.100 Russia

00:24:37.900 collusion

00:24:38.460 came up

00:24:39.080 nothing

00:24:39.540 you know

00:24:40.620 the economy

00:24:41.260 is recovering

00:24:42.080 there's a lot

00:24:44.160 going right

00:24:44.800 but this

00:24:45.300 coronavirus

00:24:45.760 was sort

00:24:47.180 of his

00:24:47.400 big

00:24:47.620 vulnerability

00:24:48.160 what are

00:24:49.340 the odds

00:24:49.940 that just

00:24:51.040 exactly

00:24:51.820 the worst

00:24:53.100 thing

00:24:53.680 for that

00:24:54.800 specific

00:24:55.460 vulnerability

00:24:56.080 actually

00:24:56.960 happened.

00:24:58.040 Again it's

00:24:58.700 a pretty

00:24:58.980 big coincidence

00:24:59.580 isn't it?

00:25:00.800 But it did

00:25:01.760 happen and

00:25:02.340 that's the

00:25:02.700 third act.

00:25:03.200 So let's

00:25:03.400 talk about

00:25:03.840 how the

00:25:04.980 third act

00:25:05.500 will go.

00:25:06.740 But first

00:25:07.280 I'm seeing

00:25:09.980 some yammering

00:25:11.760 online about

00:25:12.800 the fact that

00:25:13.420 the pictures

00:25:14.180 that the

00:25:15.200 president

00:25:15.920 provided from

00:25:17.860 Walter Reed

00:25:18.440 hospital

00:25:18.780 people are

00:25:19.980 saying that

00:25:20.360 they look

00:25:20.700 staged

00:25:21.320 and that

00:25:22.400 the thing

00:25:22.800 he was

00:25:23.100 signing

00:25:23.380 was just

00:25:23.800 a blank

00:25:24.180 piece of

00:25:24.620 paper.

00:25:25.960 Well let

00:25:27.520 me explain

00:25:28.400 to you

00:25:29.100 how the

00:25:30.080 real world

00:25:30.740 works.

00:25:31.920 Of course

00:25:32.880 it was

00:25:33.280 staged.

00:25:34.680 If there's

00:25:35.520 anybody who

00:25:36.120 thinks that

00:25:36.780 those pictures

00:25:37.360 of the

00:25:37.760 president

00:25:38.140 are working

00:25:39.280 if there's

00:25:40.460 anybody who

00:25:41.040 doesn't think

00:25:41.640 they were

00:25:42.020 staged

00:25:42.600 pictures

00:25:43.220 which probably

00:25:44.240 had nothing

00:25:44.740 to do with

00:25:45.280 where he was

00:25:45.900 working or

00:25:46.480 what he was

00:25:46.920 doing I'm

00:25:47.800 sure he's

00:25:48.120 working but

00:25:49.340 I don't think

00:25:49.860 he needed

00:25:50.240 those documents

00:25:51.120 and binders

00:25:51.780 sitting in

00:25:52.260 front of

00:25:52.560 him and

00:25:53.240 I don't

00:25:53.440 think he

00:25:53.780 needed to

00:25:54.120 be signing

00:25:54.560 anything at

00:25:55.120 that moment.

00:25:56.200 So yeah

00:25:56.560 in the real

00:25:57.320 world the

00:25:58.540 photographer comes

00:25:59.580 in moves

00:26:00.720 things around

00:26:01.400 and says I

00:26:02.080 don't want to

00:26:02.460 have a blank

00:26:03.000 desk there

00:26:04.060 should be some

00:26:04.580 work on the

00:26:05.180 desk so does 0.84

00:26:06.340 anybody have a

00:26:06.980 binder that says

00:26:07.840 President Trump

00:26:09.000 on it or

00:26:09.480 something or I

00:26:10.080 put that up

00:26:10.660 there says

00:26:11.080 POTUS you

00:26:12.120 know make it

00:26:12.500 look like there's

00:26:13.040 not too much

00:26:13.740 work just the

00:26:15.060 right amount of

00:26:15.620 work.

00:26:15.840 okay move

00:26:16.340 the coffee

00:26:16.780 cup president

00:26:18.300 that shirt is

00:26:19.720 not working

00:26:20.360 could you

00:26:21.380 maybe take

00:26:21.960 off no you

00:26:23.260 don't want to

00:26:23.660 be wearing a

00:26:24.160 tie yeah try

00:26:25.520 try opening

00:26:26.180 another button

00:26:26.860 on the shirt

00:26:27.520 we'll change

00:26:28.440 the light behind

00:26:29.240 you can

00:26:30.880 somebody can

00:26:31.620 somebody come

00:26:32.100 in here and

00:26:32.980 get that little

00:26:34.020 hair lick that's 1.00

00:26:34.880 in the back okay

00:26:35.660 thank you you got

00:26:36.480 that so that's

00:26:38.620 what a photo

00:26:39.180 opportunity looks

00:26:40.720 like there's no

00:26:42.040 such thing as the

00:26:43.000 photographer sneaks

00:26:44.100 in the room and

00:26:45.280 takes them

00:26:45.780 unknowing still

00:26:46.780 picture of the

00:26:47.460 president who

00:26:48.520 couldn't have

00:26:48.940 possibly known

00:26:49.640 that his picture

00:26:50.200 was being taken

00:26:50.940 that's not a

00:26:52.740 thing that's not

00:26:54.160 a thing of

00:26:55.500 course they were

00:26:56.000 staged and

00:26:56.820 should be that's

00:26:57.960 not that's not

00:26:58.740 like a crime

00:26:59.380 and then the

00:27:04.080 word one of the

00:27:04.760 worst takes I

00:27:05.860 saw Mike

00:27:06.420 sort of it

00:27:06.900 called this out

00:27:07.680 was that one

00:27:11.100 of the bad

00:27:11.980 journalists looked

00:27:13.540 at a picture of

00:27:14.280 Trump on the

00:27:15.540 campaign trail

00:27:16.360 compared to his

00:27:18.060 video from Walter

00:27:19.240 Reed and said

00:27:20.080 look at his

00:27:20.960 complexion his

00:27:22.360 complexion at

00:27:23.160 Walter Reed is

00:27:23.900 all pale whereas

00:27:25.360 just a few days

00:27:26.540 ago in the

00:27:26.980 campaign trail his

00:27:28.400 face was full of

00:27:29.400 color to which

00:27:31.500 Mike Cernovich

00:27:32.920 points out that

00:27:34.480 these are people

00:27:35.140 pretending they

00:27:35.920 don't know how

00:27:36.540 TV makeup works

00:27:37.960 obviously if he's

00:27:40.540 in a hospital and

00:27:42.020 he's highly

00:27:42.500 contagious you're

00:27:43.900 not going to

00:27:44.300 call him the

00:27:44.880 makeup artist and

00:27:46.500 say hey makeup

00:27:47.300 artist put on

00:27:48.600 your hazmat suit

00:27:49.600 and come over

00:27:50.080 here and put

00:27:51.260 some put some

00:27:52.540 color on the

00:27:53.420 president you

00:27:54.940 don't do that

00:27:55.680 you let him look

00:27:57.320 natural because

00:27:58.080 he's in the

00:27:58.540 hospital after all

00:27:59.460 the last thing

00:28:00.400 you'd want is a

00:28:01.980 makeup picture you

00:28:03.620 know a picture

00:28:04.080 with makeup in a

00:28:05.780 hospital that's not

00:28:07.540 the way to play

00:28:08.100 that so of

00:28:09.380 course he looks

00:28:10.480 like he doesn't

00:28:11.140 have a you

00:28:12.340 know a good

00:28:13.300 tan because it

00:28:14.180 comes out of a

00:28:15.360 bottle and they

00:28:16.720 wouldn't do that

00:28:17.240 there so that's

00:28:18.440 how crazy the

00:28:19.340 news coverage is

00:28:20.360 on SNL I

00:28:25.240 don't know why

00:28:25.620 we have to talk

00:28:26.280 about Saturday

00:28:26.880 Night Live all

00:28:27.500 the time like

00:28:28.380 it's the most

00:28:29.220 interesting thing

00:28:29.940 that happens but

00:28:31.840 Chris Rock had

00:28:33.320 a his joke was

00:28:35.060 that he had a

00:28:35.920 sympathy for the

00:28:37.460 COVID so that

00:28:40.120 wasn't so nice

00:28:40.980 I had this

00:28:44.020 thought yesterday

00:28:44.760 we see all the

00:28:46.320 examples of the

00:28:47.260 people who are

00:28:47.900 wishing the

00:28:48.480 president you

00:28:49.820 know bad

00:28:51.180 outcomes and we

00:28:52.820 say to ourself

00:28:53.480 my god what

00:28:54.340 terrible people

00:28:55.480 what terrible 1.00

00:28:56.800 people you

00:28:57.980 know why do we

00:28:58.600 have to live in

00:28:59.180 a world with

00:28:59.740 people like that

00:29:00.580 where they're

00:29:01.440 wishing you know

00:29:02.760 bad health on the

00:29:03.800 president no matter

00:29:04.940 what you think of

00:29:05.680 him it's just such

00:29:06.980 a bad form but I

00:29:08.600 would like to put

00:29:10.100 this into the

00:29:11.100 the mix I think

00:29:13.360 most people are

00:29:14.100 good people I

00:29:16.080 think that most

00:29:16.900 people in in the

00:29:18.560 public eye especially

00:29:19.680 the politicians all

00:29:21.980 the way from Biden

00:29:23.220 on most people

00:29:25.260 understood that this

00:29:28.240 was a time not to

00:29:29.580 be that kind of

00:29:30.300 person most people

00:29:32.280 got this that the

00:29:34.460 rest of society

00:29:35.300 might judge them

00:29:36.380 harshly if they

00:29:38.020 wished for ill

00:29:39.180 health for another

00:29:39.980 citizen even if

00:29:41.020 they disagree with

00:29:41.760 that citizen so I

00:29:43.640 think most people

00:29:44.340 got it and I feel

00:29:46.180 as though there

00:29:47.560 was possibly a

00:29:51.660 glimmer of

00:29:52.520 humanity in the

00:29:54.500 anti-Trumpers

00:29:55.520 that where they

00:29:57.300 could feel this

00:29:58.000 little notion oh

00:29:59.700 yeah we're all

00:30:01.000 human beings and

00:30:02.040 we're all vulnerable

00:30:02.780 and yeah he did

00:30:05.200 get that while he

00:30:06.060 was doing the job

00:30:07.040 of the presidency

00:30:07.800 he was he was in

00:30:09.800 public service it

00:30:11.320 is a vital

00:30:12.180 essential service

00:30:13.720 the presidency is

00:30:15.100 obviously and he

00:30:16.900 got sick doing the

00:30:18.900 work of the people

00:30:19.540 now sure you know

00:30:22.200 maybe you should

00:30:23.280 have done more

00:30:24.060 things with masks

00:30:25.000 and social distancing

00:30:26.080 but the but when

00:30:27.800 somebody gets hurt

00:30:28.860 that's not really

00:30:30.900 the time we pile

00:30:31.840 on right if you

00:30:33.900 have a kid and

00:30:35.260 your your kid

00:30:36.280 let's say you got

00:30:37.500 a teenager teenager

00:30:39.240 comes home drunk

00:30:40.420 well that teenager

00:30:42.180 is in a lot of

00:30:42.880 trouble but not

00:30:44.560 right away right

00:30:46.240 that when the kid

00:30:47.660 is sick and you

00:30:49.640 know they're in

00:30:50.360 bad shape that's

00:30:51.900 not when you pile

00:30:52.700 on and everybody

00:30:54.220 gets that just

00:30:55.280 automatically

00:30:55.980 right so I

00:30:58.220 think that the

00:30:58.760 president's going

00:30:59.560 to get some

00:31:00.980 natural reflex

00:31:03.320 good feelings

00:31:05.200 from people who

00:31:06.160 are not bad

00:31:06.700 people those

00:31:08.000 people who are

00:31:08.460 bad people will

00:31:09.320 just continue being

00:31:10.280 bad but the

00:31:11.640 people who are

00:31:12.100 not will say

00:31:13.460 you know maybe

00:31:15.160 this is a time to

00:31:16.220 just take a little

00:31:16.900 pause maybe just

00:31:18.340 step back a little

00:31:19.080 bit

00:31:19.440 yeah as I'm

00:31:23.900 seeing a comment

00:31:24.800 on YouTube that

00:31:25.800 Reagan was

00:31:26.400 actually stronger

00:31:27.420 after he got

00:31:28.600 shot and part of

00:31:30.220 the explanation of

00:31:31.180 that is the the

00:31:32.680 way he handled it

00:31:34.020 so even though he

00:31:35.880 was a victim he

00:31:36.900 never acted like a

00:31:38.000 victim he always

00:31:38.940 acted like he had

00:31:40.660 good humor and that

00:31:41.800 that became the

00:31:42.480 story about his

00:31:44.200 positive attitude even

00:31:45.520 though he'd been

00:31:46.060 shot so I think

00:31:48.260 Trump has a strong

00:31:50.800 possibility to get

00:31:51.900 that kind of

00:31:52.560 reaction a positive

00:31:54.280 pop but we also

00:31:55.900 have the example

00:31:56.580 of Boris Johnson

00:31:58.980 now fact check me

00:32:00.880 on this but I

00:32:02.380 saw I saw some

00:32:03.740 data that said

00:32:04.420 that when Boris

00:32:05.180 Johnson got his

00:32:06.700 covid diagnosis

00:32:10.020 that his popularity

00:32:11.620 just went through

00:32:12.320 the roof he

00:32:13.480 immediately became

00:32:14.760 far more popular

00:32:15.860 because of a I

00:32:17.460 don't know an

00:32:17.880 empathy sympathy

00:32:18.960 just a natural

00:32:20.580 human instinct I

00:32:21.680 guess so do you

00:32:24.840 think President

00:32:25.400 Trump will go the

00:32:26.440 same way as

00:32:27.320 Boris Johnson well

00:32:28.740 a lot of you don't

00:32:29.920 know that that's

00:32:30.960 why Boris Johnson

00:32:31.880 was created in the

00:32:33.320 laboratory when you

00:32:34.720 look at Boris

00:32:35.280 Johnson do you say

00:32:36.780 to yourself hey

00:32:38.460 why does he remind

00:32:40.300 me of a poor man's

00:32:41.800 Donald Trump there's

00:32:43.540 something I don't

00:32:44.440 know is it his

00:32:44.960 hair is it his

00:32:46.580 politics there's

00:32:48.400 something that looks

00:32:49.400 like like a poor

00:32:51.020 man's Donald Trump

00:32:52.500 there with Boris

00:32:53.240 Johnson well what

00:32:53.940 you don't know is

00:32:55.240 that Boris Johnson

00:32:56.060 was actually created

00:32:57.400 in a laboratory in

00:33:00.220 case they ever needed

00:33:01.120 to test anything for

00:33:02.500 President Trump so

00:33:04.440 whenever they need

00:33:05.300 to do an experiment

00:33:06.480 like what do you

00:33:07.920 think would happen

00:33:08.640 if President Trump

00:33:10.480 got coronavirus would

00:33:12.640 he be more

00:33:13.300 popular or less

00:33:14.460 popular and then

00:33:15.660 they say well let's

00:33:16.940 let's not jump into

00:33:17.940 this let's test it

00:33:19.840 first so they say

00:33:21.560 do we where's our

00:33:23.360 test guy and they

00:33:24.860 get Boris Johnson

00:33:25.820 and they slather some

00:33:27.300 COVID you know

00:33:29.040 coronavirus on and

00:33:30.300 they say all right

00:33:30.880 let's let's watch

00:33:31.740 and then they watch

00:33:32.980 the polls and

00:33:34.240 they're like are you

00:33:34.900 seeing this are you

00:33:36.520 seeing this are our

00:33:37.960 little our test Trump

00:33:39.880 his popularity is

00:33:42.040 going up I think

00:33:45.240 this is working and

00:33:46.840 so once they see

00:33:47.840 that it works for

00:33:48.540 Boris and then he

00:33:49.440 survives and

00:33:50.100 everything they say

00:33:51.180 all right it's time

00:33:51.920 to implement our

00:33:52.620 plan I'm just

00:33:54.100 kidding in case

00:33:55.840 you're new to me

00:33:56.580 just kidding but it

00:34:00.520 does suggest that

00:34:01.580 there might be a

00:34:03.100 greater chance that

00:34:04.060 Trump will be more

00:34:05.180 popular not less

00:34:07.340 and here are some

00:34:10.520 possible outcomes

00:34:11.940 all right so

00:34:13.280 right now we're in

00:34:16.060 this sort of

00:34:17.060 multi-dimensional

00:34:18.200 Schrodinger's cat

00:34:20.540 box situation we

00:34:23.260 don't know yet if

00:34:24.700 the cat is alive or

00:34:25.920 the cat is dead or

00:34:27.600 the cat is a zombie or

00:34:29.020 ten other paths and

00:34:34.240 here are some

00:34:36.020 possible directions

00:34:37.120 one is I often

00:34:40.860 tell you that the

00:34:41.540 way people think is

00:34:42.700 in terms of stories

00:34:43.720 so when this news

00:34:45.280 broke people were I

00:34:47.360 think confused

00:34:48.660 because it didn't fit

00:34:50.280 any story they

00:34:51.360 already have in their

00:34:52.240 head there's no

00:34:53.340 model of this there's

00:34:54.480 no there wasn't

00:34:55.220 anything like it

00:34:56.180 exactly so they're

00:34:58.420 trying to say okay

00:34:59.280 what what what is

00:35:00.580 this like so I can do

00:35:02.780 some predicting because

00:35:03.800 if it's like that

00:35:04.540 other thing then

00:35:05.300 maybe I know what's

00:35:05.920 going to happen so

00:35:07.020 here are some things

00:35:07.760 it's like one is

00:35:10.220 the spider-man you

00:35:12.580 know the spider-man

00:35:13.460 story Peter Parker

00:35:15.180 gets bitten by a

00:35:16.780 radioactive spider now

00:35:19.160 I know what you're

00:35:19.740 thinking on paper if

00:35:23.580 you said hey would

00:35:24.440 you like to be bitten

00:35:25.340 by a radioactive spider

00:35:27.000 you would probably say

00:35:29.040 no thank you that

00:35:31.000 sounds like a very

00:35:31.900 bad idea I don't

00:35:33.380 like spiders I don't

00:35:35.200 like radioactivity so

00:35:37.140 if you put the

00:35:37.660 radioactivity with the

00:35:38.940 spider and then you

00:35:39.980 have it bite me that's

00:35:40.960 all bad I don't want

00:35:42.780 any of that radioactive

00:35:43.980 spider business so on

00:35:46.040 paper it's a very bad

00:35:46.980 idea but if you know

00:35:48.600 the spider-man story it

00:35:50.240 gave Peter Parker

00:35:51.400 spider powers and he

00:35:53.580 actually came out with a

00:35:54.540 superpower now look at

00:35:57.060 Trump getting coronavirus

00:35:58.840 is it possible that one

00:36:03.020 of the outcomes is a

00:36:04.860 superpower now I mean a

00:36:06.860 superpower in in terms of

00:36:08.800 the normal world what

00:36:10.720 would be a superpower for

00:36:12.800 Trump what would be

00:36:14.880 something that would let's

00:36:16.320 say if you wanted to play

00:36:18.260 it this way and you know

00:36:20.680 that he's he understands the

00:36:22.820 show he understands TV he

00:36:27.380 understands how minds work he

00:36:29.800 understands the story he

00:36:32.040 understands the visuals he

00:36:34.100 understands persuasion so he

00:36:37.460 could certainly construct a new

00:36:40.340 Trump that is the improved

00:36:42.780 version or the Peter Parker

00:36:45.080 gets bitten by the the

00:36:47.120 radioactive spider version the

00:36:49.240 one who's got something extra

00:36:51.060 coming out of this situation what

00:36:53.960 would the extra be that would

00:36:56.240 flip it for him do you know

00:36:58.880 what it is yet yeah I'm seeing

00:37:02.360 it in the comments empathy but

00:37:05.020 empathy is the right answer but

00:37:07.120 I'm gonna I'm gonna modify that a

00:37:09.100 little bit and improve it a little

00:37:10.340 bit not just empathy what about

00:37:14.140 being nice what about understanding

00:37:18.280 the problem what about being the

00:37:20.960 one person in the world who more

00:37:22.620 than anyone else understands the

00:37:25.160 trade-off and the risk between

00:37:27.640 going back to work and helping the

00:37:29.840 children because the children need

00:37:31.940 us to go back to work and helping

00:37:34.180 the economy helping the world

00:37:35.920 helping the poor because the poor 0.99

00:37:38.160 are getting at the worst as they

00:37:39.640 always do well how do you balance

00:37:42.220 that risk between doing your job the

00:37:44.820 thing that the country requires you to

00:37:46.660 do your patriotic duty to be part of

00:37:49.540 the solution and not part of the

00:37:50.900 problem how do you balance that with

00:37:53.000 the actual risk to your health well

00:37:55.560 I'll tell you if there's one person

00:37:57.520 you could trust to understand the risk

00:38:00.920 it's somebody who just went through it

00:38:03.340 all right the president is spending

00:38:05.620 these few days thinking about his own

00:38:08.660 mortality in a way that maybe he's

00:38:10.920 never has before all right we can't

00:38:13.420 read his mind but it would be fair to

00:38:15.660 assume that his his appreciation of

00:38:20.200 those trade-offs of maybe I'll die if I

00:38:23.420 go back to work literally maybe I'll die

00:38:26.200 or maybe I'll infect somebody I love he 0.96

00:38:29.840 probably did you probably infected

00:38:32.660 Melania you know best guess so he's

00:38:37.460 gonna look like a different person will

00:38:40.520 he be clever enough and nimble a bit

00:38:43.060 enough to simply inhabit that new

00:38:46.380 personality if he does it's a movie

00:38:50.320 because in the movie one of the

00:38:52.560 important things and as a writer you

00:38:54.640 understand this is that the hero's

00:38:57.100 journey or that how the hero changes so

00:39:00.500 the hero in the beginning of a movie has

00:39:02.600 to have a certain personality traits maybe

00:39:05.540 the hero is afraid of something by the

00:39:08.220 end of the movie they will have overcome

00:39:10.040 that fear so Trump's biggest complaint

00:39:14.520 is his personality right you know that he

00:39:18.440 rubs people the wrong way he's a little 0.54

00:39:20.220 too to to Trump and what happens if he

00:39:24.720 comes out of this with a softened

00:39:27.520 personality at least through election

00:39:29.760 day maybe it doesn't last forever but

00:39:31.860 what if it lasts through election day

00:39:33.280 he's gonna look different a lot of the

00:39:36.840 reason that people don't like him is his

00:39:38.840 style what if he modifies it now you

00:39:43.300 can't modify it all the way to not being

00:39:45.220 Trump you can't modify it all the way to

00:39:47.780 not being a fighter can't modify it all

00:39:50.520 the way to not being optimistic all right

00:39:53.060 there's a limit to how much you can

00:39:54.300 modify but there's still a lot of room

00:39:56.980 there to say the right stuff you know

00:39:59.600 what I mean he could be the same person

00:40:01.680 but maybe speak differently now if you had

00:40:06.140 to bet on Trump turning into a modified

00:40:09.840 version of Trump it's probably a bad bet

00:40:12.400 one one of the things that we like best

00:40:15.980 about Trump is you know exactly who he is

00:40:18.560 you know even even with you know not

00:40:21.300 passing the fact-checking you know

00:40:23.880 exactly who he is so it doesn't even hurt

00:40:25.840 so you hear today Trump told 5,000 new

00:40:30.420 inaccurate statements how does that

00:40:33.760 change you it doesn't makes no difference

00:40:36.800 at all because you expected that yeah

00:40:42.040 somebody says Trump is almost like

00:40:43.760 somebody from Queens exactly so that's

00:40:48.520 one way I could go it could go the

00:40:50.100 Peter Parker way and he comes out with a

00:40:52.220 personality superpower he didn't have

00:40:54.660 before you know you on his video

00:40:58.040 statement he used a he used a statement

00:41:01.560 which is just super strong and he does

00:41:04.160 this so well I mean I doubt he thought it

00:41:07.520 through but it was still perfect even

00:41:10.780 spontaneously and he said that he was

00:41:13.380 seeing lots of bipartisan you know love

00:41:16.340 and support that he was getting and then

00:41:18.140 he said this I don't know if he thought

00:41:19.740 this but he said I'll never forget it

00:41:22.700 that's really powerful he said I'll

00:41:26.460 never forget it and it sounded sincere

00:41:31.120 because I actually believe this is a

00:41:34.860 gigantic moment in his life obviously

00:41:37.760 and I don't think he will forget it and

00:41:41.100 I think he will always appreciate the

00:41:42.880 country for doing this for him even

00:41:45.700 bipartisan now when you have a president

00:41:48.840 who is touched in that way touched by the

00:41:53.560 public so the public has now done

00:41:59.720 something that if if the world is

00:42:02.020 predictable in this way it should change

00:42:05.120 him because it's one thing to have your

00:42:08.080 your loved ones say good things about you

00:42:10.200 you like it of course but it doesn't

00:42:12.660 change you but when your enemies show you

00:42:16.340 kindness when you're down that can change

00:42:20.160 you that that can turn you into that can

00:42:23.240 rewire you that can turn you into a 0.89

00:42:25.020 different person because it's just an

00:42:26.860 experience you don't normally have and

00:42:29.220 when you do it could be profound so when

00:42:31.920 the president says he's not going to

00:42:33.560 forget it here's how I internalize that

00:42:36.980 that he's going to work harder for the

00:42:38.900 country that that he owes the country

00:42:43.720 something that's what it felt like it felt

00:42:47.040 like I owe you a favor and it felt real so

00:42:50.940 I think that was meaningful

00:42:51.980 there's of course CNN is trying to turn the

00:42:57.360 story into something about did he know he

00:42:59.400 was infected and blah blah blah I'm going

00:43:02.460 to guess that there's nothing to that but

00:43:05.880 they have to have news so they'll be

00:43:08.520 chasing that down all right here's an idea

00:43:10.900 for paying off the national debt you ready

00:43:13.620 you know what convalescent plasma is right

00:43:18.000 so you take somebody who's infected you

00:43:20.820 manipulate their blood and you take out the

00:43:23.240 good stuff and you get the antibodies and

00:43:25.720 use those antibodies to help somebody else

00:43:28.240 and that's called convalescent plasma

00:43:32.000 suppose we take Trump's recovered you know

00:43:37.740 once he's recovered suppose we take the

00:43:39.760 convalescent plasma from Trump and then

00:43:43.180 clone it because I think he can do that

00:43:46.140 right you can you can clone his antibodies

00:43:48.620 so you clone his antibodies and then you

00:43:51.800 bottle it and you sell it as tiger blood

00:43:53.860 Trump tiger blood now let me ask you this

00:43:58.300 because because we're all irrational humans

00:44:03.060 and we like things like brands you know

00:44:05.920 you'd rather buy a Nike something or an Adidas

00:44:09.300 something than some other brand we're very

00:44:12.040 brand conscious and given that serious

00:44:18.040 question if you had a choice of buying let's

00:44:23.140 say from your health care provider Trump

00:44:25.620 literally Trump convalescent serum that's you

00:44:30.620 know cloned from his actual antibodies or a

00:44:33.920 generic one which one would you pay more

00:44:37.300 for if they were identical in a bill you know

00:44:42.780 in usefulness there was no difference in

00:44:45.360 utility the generic convalescent plasma or

00:44:49.600 the plasma that you know was derived from

00:44:51.720 don't from Donald Trump's own antibodies you

00:44:55.800 know you'd pay more for it you'd pay a lot more

00:44:58.900 for it I don't know what convalescent plasma

00:45:02.780 costs already but you know people would pay

00:45:06.020 twice as much for that you know you would

00:45:07.980 so it's a fun idea but not entirely impractical

00:45:12.800 yeah you can maybe make some of it give some

00:45:16.980 of it and it'd be pretty popular

00:45:19.120 all right when president Trump did his video

00:45:24.100 of course the two movie analogy came out and so

00:45:30.020 Gabriel Sherman said this just watched Gabriel

00:45:34.460 Sherman is let's see who is he he's a vanity fair

00:45:39.180 special correspondent author of the loudest voice in

00:45:43.380 the room etc so he's no no Trump supporter I'm guessing he

00:45:48.280 said just watch Trump a hospital video a second time his

00:45:51.900 breathing is clearly labored he seems to be leaning on

00:45:55.460 the table for support and there's so much fear in his

00:45:58.700 eyes what did you see any of that did you I saw him

00:46:05.900 leaning on the table do you know why because if you're

00:46:10.100 sitting at a table and you're and you're not leaning on

00:46:12.700 it with your you know with your arms like this you look kind

00:46:16.860 of dorky because you're just sitting sitting behind the

00:46:19.440 table you have to put your your arms on the table look at look 0.82

00:46:24.360 at somebody on camera with their arms on the table looks

00:46:28.900 powerful you're leaning forward you're not leaning on your

00:46:32.120 arms you're leaning in it's a power power pose so but

00:46:38.320 Gabriel Sherman saw that as he had to be leaning for support

00:46:42.900 again that's knowing nothing about photography any if if if Peter Duke is

00:46:51.500 watching this and sometimes he does professional photographer Peter let me

00:46:56.420 ask you this question true or false it's a better picture when the when the

00:47:01.840 president is leaning forward on on a desk right now I don't know that he does I'm

00:47:07.440 trying to remember if he does it for the addresses from the Oval Office but I

00:47:11.440 think he does if we looked at an Oval Office address wouldn't wouldn't he be

00:47:15.760 on the table because it just looks weak if you just your hands are by your side

00:47:20.520 at a table or a desk and then I certainly couldn't tell that he was

00:47:27.360 breathing having breathing difficulty I didn't see any of that and I didn't see

00:47:31.900 any fear in his eyes did you see any fear in his eyes now of course he would

00:47:37.220 have to be concerned about his health who wouldn't be but fear in his eyes I

00:47:42.540 don't really see any okay all right here's another wild card for you on how

00:47:51.840 people will process this Trump situation I asked on a Twitter poll just this

00:47:57.640 morning I asked if based on what you know about the White House's own procedures

00:48:02.940 for social distancing and for mask wearing is your personal family

00:48:07.940 situation better or worse than the White House as far as what you've heard

00:48:14.020 reported and what did you what do you think people said they said about about

00:48:18.620 80% of the people who answered said that their family situation is similar to or

00:48:24.660 worse in terms of protecting themselves than the White House 80% were were

00:48:31.860 handling their own personal situation very similarly to how the White House was

00:48:38.080 handling it for themselves now does that make it smart that the White House was

00:48:44.620 only doing as much as average families no no medically and politically and

00:48:51.320 everything else they should have done better but when you see the president let me put

00:48:57.360 it in analogy terms when the president eats a fast food whether it's McDonald's or

00:49:04.380 Taco Bell and he does it conspicuously and publicly what do the experts say well I'm

00:49:11.820 not so sure you should be eating junk food in front of the public you're setting an

00:49:16.820 example you know that's not really the healthiest thing maybe you should eat

00:49:21.520 something healthier than they would eat something healthier that's what the experts

00:49:24.840 will say right what do the voters say the voters say hey I eat at McDonald's too

00:49:32.780 the voters say hey I eat a Taco Bell hey the president eats a Taco Bell I eat a Taco Bell

00:49:42.420 that's what the voters say so when you see the president being lax with the social

00:49:51.120 distancing or the White House in general and lax with the masks do you say to yourself man I don't

00:49:58.080 do that that's not how I act and he needs to be better than me some people do some people will say

00:50:05.820 exactly that are those were those people going to vote for the president anyway nope no they

00:50:13.320 weren't I'm guessing that this is more of a bonding experience than anybody is ever going to

00:50:22.060 recognize when you see your president doing the same thing that you do that doesn't make you like

00:50:29.440 him less even if you're sure he shouldn't have done that I'm sure the president should not eat junk

00:50:35.880 food but how do I feel when he does I feel like he's like me well he's actually he's not like me

00:50:43.520 because I don't eat much junk food but I think he's like ordinary people and that certainly helps

00:50:48.440 all right so those are my big points for today uh the part which will be taken out of context

00:51:01.520 is the conspiracy theory parts so look for that today and uh have you noticed that the the the breadth

00:51:11.080 of news just sort of stopped I have to think that there were probably other surprises that were

00:51:17.900 waiting to happen but maybe the other surprises are on hold because you know there was going to be

00:51:23.680 more surprise right between now and election day so you can see how the news is an artificial

00:51:30.500 construct because it's not an accident that there's less news on holidays and weekends

00:51:36.460 you know I mean there's a reason for that because people aren't working but there they feel like

00:51:44.100 there's there are not even natural disasters on holidays have you ever noticed that it's as if

00:51:49.700 it's as if the news in general knows to stop when we're not going to be paying attention and now that

00:51:56.660 everything is about the president's health at the moment for about a week it won't matter what

00:52:03.020 Joe Biden does in fact the only thing we're going to care about what Joe Biden does is what he does

00:52:10.300 vis-a-vis Trump I'm not sure I use a vis-a-vis correctly there but let's say I did and so so Trump

00:52:20.720 by no plan of his own but because he's the more interesting person in all in all cases because he's

00:52:27.960 got a big story happening it just sucks all the attention away from Biden and while I think it was

00:52:34.500 smart of Biden to do that that well I'm not going to do any any any hit ads but then of course he did

00:52:44.980 them anyway that was probably a good play but it also diminishes his importance if I ask you who is

00:52:54.420 more important the president of the United States commander-in-chief who currently has coronavirus well

00:53:01.080 that's a 10 and a 10 you know you can't care about many things more than that except you know

00:53:06.920 an immediate emergency but in terms of how important that is to the country to the world to your own

00:53:13.020 psychological well-being President Trump in the hospital that's a 10 now how does Joe Biden compete

00:53:21.580 with a 10 what's it what's his best play there's almost nothing he can do he could go around in his

00:53:29.800 little weak-ass train tour or whatever he can talk to some donors he can do some zoom calls

00:53:35.900 but everything that Joe Biden can do is on a scale of one to 10 is a one or maybe a two in total 0.94

00:53:45.560 importance emotional impact relevance size wattage he so so so Biden is just gonna be shooting ones and

00:53:56.360 two with his little BB gun while the president is in full nuclear you know maximum newsworthy mode

00:54:08.040 while hardly trying so that's advantage Trump if I you know I said in the beginning when when this all

00:54:18.360 broke the coronavirus stuff with Trump when this broke

00:54:22.260 uh yeah when this broke uh I thought you have to wait a little bit to see how people are processing it

00:54:32.280 you can't immediately guess on moment one oh well this will play out this way for him or against him

00:54:38.580 you have to see how it's settling out a little bit and as I'm watching it start to settle

00:54:43.860 the thing that I'm I'm seeing as a dominant theme is one Trump will get all the attention

00:54:49.800 to he's he's more relatable probably more empathetic and probably we care about him more just because

00:54:57.080 he's you know sick and and given the Boris Johnson effect and uh given the Reagan you know assassination

00:55:06.800 attempt to effect if I had to bet on this I bet it's going to help him now that could be just me being

00:55:15.040 uh you know too close to it and I've got some bias in that but I showed my reasons so now you know why

00:55:20.800 all right that's all I got for now and I will talk to you tomorrow

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 04, 2020

Episode 1144 Scott Adams： Trump and the Campaign. What Happens to the Country's Psychology Now？

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