Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1147 Scott Adams： I Tell You How Fear Persuasion and Fake News Will Determine the Election

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody! Come on in, come on in. It's just in time. No, you're not late, you're right in time.

00:00:19.320 It's the perfect time for the simultaneous sip. Coffee with Scott Adams is about to start,

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00:00:29.700 It's the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:31.860 It's a simultaneous sip, and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice

00:00:35.920 or a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind.

00:00:39.380 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:41.700 I like coffee.

00:00:43.480 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day,

00:00:46.840 the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:48.880 Everything.

00:00:49.580 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:00:51.860 Go.

00:00:55.520 I feel all my vital signs improving.

00:01:02.360 White blood count up.

00:01:04.560 Vitamin D levels improving.

00:01:07.380 Yep, it's all coming together now.

00:01:10.040 So, what's happening in the news?

00:01:12.580 Apparently, FBI chief Christopher Wray has something to tell us this morning.

00:01:18.400 If you find out what it is while I'm yammering away here,

00:01:22.860 tell me in the comments what the news is.

00:01:24.980 Some big news.

00:01:27.120 I saw somebody saying they thought he was going to resign,

00:01:30.900 but I don't think that's anything like confirmed.

00:01:34.720 So, we'll see.

00:01:36.280 Could be a whole new news cycle.

00:01:39.620 Could be interesting.

00:01:42.360 All right.

00:01:43.020 Here's a question I wonder about.

00:01:45.980 Whenever we talk about death rates for coronavirus,

00:01:48.860 we're always talking about averages.

00:01:52.400 And the averages are useful, but they could be misleading as well.

00:01:59.000 And here's what I'm wondering.

00:02:01.540 How many people in Trump's position,

00:02:05.360 meaning they were diagnosed early,

00:02:07.960 so there was sufficient testing to catch it before the symptoms were bad,

00:02:13.880 and they got the full suite of, let's call it the Trump protocol,

00:02:19.000 every drug that Trump got the same way that he got it.

00:02:22.900 And let's say they were in their 70s,

00:02:25.020 and let's say they had one comorbidity,

00:02:27.540 they had some extra pounds.

00:02:29.380 How many people in that situation

00:02:31.780 who were lucky enough to get treated as well as the president,

00:02:36.280 which would be rare,

00:02:37.660 but we could get there,

00:02:39.280 how many of those people would die?

00:02:43.760 Because I'm starting to think that the number is so close to zero

00:02:47.420 that we should just forget about it.

00:02:51.080 I mean, if we can get to the point

00:02:52.620 where we can catch people early

00:02:55.100 and give them exactly what Trump got

00:02:58.420 and whatever else comes along,

00:03:01.280 I feel as if vaccines are not going to be the answer.

00:03:05.360 You know, one of my predictions I made months ago,

00:03:11.700 which I haven't re-upped,

00:03:14.860 but I think I'll do it now,

00:03:16.440 I'm not sure we'll ever see vaccinations.

00:03:19.880 I'm just not sure vaccines are going to be the answer.

00:03:23.160 As other people have noted,

00:03:25.200 we've never successfully made a coronavirus vaccine.

00:03:29.360 So are you wondering,

00:03:32.020 why is it we've never been able to make one in the past

00:03:34.980 but now, you know,

00:03:37.340 six or ten different companies suddenly can all make one

00:03:40.400 and they can make it all with different techniques?

00:03:43.900 So suddenly,

00:03:45.260 the thing that was impossible every year until now

00:03:48.940 is now so possible

00:03:51.320 that you can do it ten different ways.

00:03:54.680 There's something wrong, right?

00:03:56.740 There's something terribly wrong with what we're being told.

00:04:00.380 Now, maybe it was always possible

00:04:03.100 and there was some financial or other reason

00:04:05.060 that wasn't being done.

00:04:06.700 Maybe it was a timing thing.

00:04:08.300 Maybe those coronaviruses weren't so bad

00:04:11.300 so we didn't have to try so hard.

00:04:13.220 But we're definitely not getting good information

00:04:15.300 about what's going on in the world.

00:04:17.400 Have you seen the latest polls?

00:04:22.520 It looks like the polls

00:04:23.780 are starting to show Biden with a commanding lead.

00:04:29.360 What do you think?

00:04:31.340 Do you buy it?

00:04:32.800 Apparently, this is the same week in 2016

00:04:36.100 relative to Election Day.

00:04:38.540 The same week that Hillary was at her maximum poll numbers.

00:04:42.760 Now, does that mean that this will go the way I went last time?

00:04:51.500 Well, I certainly suspect

00:04:53.080 that people are lying to pollsters, first of all.

00:04:58.840 We'll see how much.

00:05:01.140 But it's also true 0.89

00:05:02.580 that this might be one of the president's worst weeks,

00:05:07.040 wouldn't you say?

00:05:07.700 And we also see that these numbers can swing wildly in one week.

00:05:12.900 So what it is today

00:05:14.200 is really not terribly predictive

00:05:16.880 of what the election is going to be,

00:05:18.580 as we know from 2016.

00:05:20.640 So I wouldn't worry yet,

00:05:23.540 but if things don't change,

00:05:25.900 it's not looking good.

00:05:27.720 That's for sure.

00:05:29.400 All right.

00:05:29.900 Let's talk about persuasion

00:05:32.000 and the strongest elements of persuasion

00:05:35.580 to see if we can get a little visibility

00:05:37.220 on what's going on here.

00:05:38.500 As I've told you before,

00:05:40.520 the strongest persuasion,

00:05:42.180 especially for the presidency,

00:05:43.820 is fear.

00:05:45.820 You could pretty much predict

00:05:47.660 that whoever does the best job

00:05:49.440 of scaring voters

00:05:50.760 in the way that they want to scare them,

00:05:53.760 that's probably who's going to win the election.

00:05:56.720 Fear is the big persuader.

00:05:58.820 It's the one thing

00:05:59.560 that will get people off the fence.

00:06:01.700 It's the one thing

00:06:02.820 that will make you show up to vote.

00:06:04.580 And it will certainly get you

00:06:06.360 to switch parties

00:06:07.240 if you're afraid.

00:06:09.080 You might not do it for other reasons,

00:06:10.880 but if you're afraid,

00:06:12.660 you might switch parties.

00:06:15.160 So let's look at the fear filter.

00:06:19.420 So number one fear is COVID, right?

00:06:21.900 So the Democrats quite wisely

00:06:25.360 decided to focus on coronavirus

00:06:27.620 as the primary push

00:06:31.520 against President Trump.

00:06:33.220 It works for two really good reasons.

00:06:36.060 Number one,

00:06:36.980 there's a general impression

00:06:38.260 that he has not performed

00:06:39.600 as well as he could.

00:06:41.520 So they've got something to say

00:06:43.220 about his performance.

00:06:44.820 Now, I, of course,

00:06:45.840 have said that those opinions

00:06:49.140 are probably ridiculous.

00:06:51.860 It won't matter

00:06:52.680 because we make decisions

00:06:54.640 based on ridiculous thinking.

00:06:57.100 But my point is this.

00:06:58.900 What do we know

00:07:00.220 about how well, let's say,

00:07:02.520 a different leader

00:07:03.400 would have been

00:07:04.160 in the United States?

00:07:05.380 Let's say if we picked

00:07:06.420 the leader of Germany,

00:07:08.380 the leader of New Zealand,

00:07:10.020 pick anybody who you think

00:07:11.140 did a good job

00:07:11.940 on the coronavirus

00:07:12.700 and tell me

00:07:14.540 that you know for sure

00:07:15.680 if that other leader

00:07:17.620 had just been born American

00:07:19.560 and had been the president

00:07:21.340 instead of Trump,

00:07:22.740 that we would have gotten

00:07:23.960 a better result

00:07:24.860 because you can't say that.

00:07:27.660 It's unknowable.

00:07:29.420 And if you use your common sense

00:07:31.400 to just think it through,

00:07:33.560 he probably,

00:07:34.580 whoever that other president

00:07:36.080 would be hypothetically,

00:07:37.300 would probably get the same result

00:07:38.780 because they would have

00:07:40.480 the same limitations.

00:07:42.940 They would come into 0.81

00:07:43.840 an administration

00:07:45.160 that had faulty tests

00:07:46.520 from the CDC.

00:07:48.400 Wasn't the president's fault,

00:07:50.440 but they were faulty.

00:07:51.940 You would have the states

00:07:53.240 jockeying for power.

00:07:54.980 We have a system

00:07:56.000 where the states

00:07:56.680 have a lot of control.

00:07:58.240 They would be making

00:07:59.020 a variety of different decisions

00:08:00.680 just the way the system

00:08:02.460 is supposed to work.

00:08:03.800 It's exactly what

00:08:04.800 it's supposed to do.

00:08:06.660 I don't know

00:08:07.600 that some other leader

00:08:08.540 would have gotten

00:08:09.060 a better result.

00:08:09.780 But the country

00:08:12.000 is not good at analyzing,

00:08:13.920 so they won't make

00:08:14.940 that comparison.

00:08:16.220 They won't know enough

00:08:17.420 to say,

00:08:18.320 wait, wait,

00:08:18.660 the only thing that matters

00:08:19.620 is what another leader

00:08:21.540 would have done

00:08:22.100 in the same situation

00:08:23.300 as president

00:08:24.800 of the United States.

00:08:26.520 It doesn't tell you anything

00:08:28.080 to know how somebody

00:08:29.680 did in another country

00:08:30.820 because there are just

00:08:31.960 too many different variables.

00:08:34.200 So,

00:08:34.620 point is,

00:08:37.080 fear is always

00:08:37.920 the big motivator,

00:08:41.640 persuasion-wise.

00:08:42.980 Coronavirus has been

00:08:44.260 our biggest fear,

00:08:45.960 and the president

00:08:46.960 is vulnerable

00:08:47.720 to criticism

00:08:48.860 because people

00:08:49.500 aren't good at analyzing.

00:08:51.320 So,

00:08:52.140 they quite rightly

00:08:52.760 went after this.

00:08:53.580 But,

00:08:53.880 the president,

00:08:55.140 and I don't think

00:08:56.920 this is getting

00:08:58.480 enough attention,

00:09:00.200 the president's instincts

00:09:01.800 to downplay

00:09:03.220 the fear

00:09:04.140 of the coronavirus

00:09:05.360 is politically

00:09:07.140 probably

00:09:08.380 right on point.

00:09:10.460 Because you might say

00:09:11.580 to yourself,

00:09:12.160 Scott,

00:09:12.700 I think the country

00:09:13.960 would do better

00:09:14.820 if people were more afraid.

00:09:17.700 Maybe they would take

00:09:18.660 more precautions

00:09:19.360 or something.

00:09:20.400 Maybe.

00:09:21.280 That's entirely possible.

00:09:23.100 But from a political perspective,

00:09:25.760 if the president

00:09:26.780 can take the fear

00:09:28.080 off it,

00:09:29.100 he can take the criticism,

00:09:30.700 and it won't hurt

00:09:31.600 as much politically.

00:09:33.680 So,

00:09:34.200 if you are

00:09:34.820 on a scale

00:09:35.440 of 1 to 10,

00:09:36.440 if your fear

00:09:37.260 of coronavirus

00:09:37.900 was,

00:09:39.020 let's say,

00:09:39.580 a 9 or a 10,

00:09:41.500 and he can bump

00:09:42.260 that down

00:09:42.680 to a 7,

00:09:44.840 he probably wins.

00:09:47.280 Now,

00:09:47.680 what do you feel

00:09:48.980 about the risk

00:09:49.700 of the coronavirus

00:09:50.400 when you see

00:09:51.000 a 73-year-old,

00:09:53.300 73 or 4-year-old

00:09:55.560 man

00:09:56.480 who's got

00:09:57.180 some comorbidities,

00:09:58.760 got a little

00:09:59.120 extra weight on him,

00:10:00.120 what does it

00:10:01.440 make you feel

00:10:02.180 when you see him

00:10:03.060 going to the hospital

00:10:03.940 and shake it off

00:10:04.960 in a few days?

00:10:07.040 Less afraid,

00:10:08.060 right?

00:10:08.920 Now,

00:10:09.400 you might say

00:10:09.840 to yourself,

00:10:10.680 well,

00:10:10.900 I'm not going

00:10:11.380 to get the same

00:10:12.060 health care

00:10:13.380 as the president,

00:10:14.640 but even so,

00:10:17.320 when you watch

00:10:18.160 him go through it,

00:10:19.540 you sort of

00:10:20.400 relate to it more

00:10:21.420 because it's somebody

00:10:22.320 you sort of know,

00:10:23.920 and you feel,

00:10:25.980 okay,

00:10:26.400 I just watched

00:10:27.440 the cycle

00:10:28.600 from beginning

00:10:29.280 to end

00:10:29.840 and there was

00:10:31.020 nothing that

00:10:31.660 happened there

00:10:32.320 that looked

00:10:33.520 extra dangerous.

00:10:35.580 Could have been

00:10:36.260 if he had not

00:10:37.340 gotten the right

00:10:37.920 treatment,

00:10:38.500 et cetera,

00:10:38.960 but your impression

00:10:40.260 of it,

00:10:41.340 right or wrong,

00:10:42.320 just your impression

00:10:43.260 of it is less scary.

00:10:45.160 So I think

00:10:45.800 that the president

00:10:46.480 is knocking that

00:10:47.380 down from a 9

00:10:48.360 or a 10

00:10:48.880 to about a 7

00:10:50.580 and you don't

00:10:52.020 really see,

00:10:52.920 it's sort of

00:10:53.560 an invisible play

00:10:54.660 because what

00:10:55.820 people are

00:10:56.280 concentrating on

00:10:57.340 is what

00:10:58.740 that will do

00:10:59.420 to,

00:11:00.140 let's say,

00:11:00.460 the actions

00:11:01.040 of the citizens.

00:11:02.520 Will the citizens

00:11:03.320 then expose

00:11:05.320 themselves to

00:11:06.180 greater risk

00:11:06.880 than they should

00:11:07.500 because they're

00:11:08.160 less afraid?

00:11:09.860 They might.

00:11:11.180 That's entirely

00:11:11.860 possible.

00:11:12.620 They might.

00:11:13.880 But that will

00:11:15.320 count much less.

00:11:17.480 Let's say

00:11:17.920 the death rate

00:11:19.900 is 235,000,

00:11:22.860 but it could

00:11:23.960 have been

00:11:24.420 232,000,

00:11:27.040 just to pick

00:11:27.640 the numbers.

00:11:28.420 Would you notice?

00:11:30.000 Would the public

00:11:30.720 say,

00:11:31.100 ah,

00:11:31.700 that was an

00:11:32.580 extra 2,000

00:11:33.720 people if the

00:11:35.160 president had

00:11:35.780 just said

00:11:36.220 different things

00:11:36.980 about his own

00:11:37.720 infection,

00:11:38.980 2,000 people

00:11:39.940 would be alive?

00:11:41.060 Well,

00:11:41.420 we'll never be

00:11:41.920 able to demonstrate

00:11:42.620 that anybody

00:11:43.660 died because

00:11:44.900 of what the

00:11:45.440 president said.

00:11:46.480 It just won't

00:11:47.100 be studyable.

00:11:48.880 We won't know

00:11:49.640 and certainly

00:11:50.040 won't know

00:11:50.460 by election day.

00:11:52.860 That's my dog

00:11:54.400 making all kinds

00:11:55.080 of noise if you

00:11:55.700 hear that.

00:11:56.700 So,

00:11:57.780 here's the thing.

00:12:02.740 The president

00:12:03.720 is doing a good

00:12:04.480 job on the

00:12:05.160 fear reduction.

00:12:06.800 Now,

00:12:07.140 in order to win,

00:12:08.480 they've got to

00:12:09.280 amp up the fear

00:12:10.700 in the other

00:12:12.120 direction.

00:12:13.180 So,

00:12:13.760 right now,

00:12:14.740 we don't have

00:12:15.500 enough fear

00:12:16.420 about what would

00:12:17.300 happen if

00:12:18.320 Joe Biden

00:12:19.560 got elected.

00:12:20.660 What would be

00:12:21.160 the thing you

00:12:21.660 would fear the

00:12:22.260 most?

00:12:23.280 Well,

00:12:23.660 you can think

00:12:24.340 of all kinds

00:12:24.900 of stuff.

00:12:25.380 You say,

00:12:25.660 well,

00:12:26.560 maybe he's a

00:12:27.180 little,

00:12:27.700 you know,

00:12:28.200 too friendly

00:12:28.940 with China.

00:12:30.100 But you don't

00:12:30.840 feel that

00:12:31.600 it's going to

00:12:32.420 kill you 0.70

00:12:32.820 tomorrow.

00:12:33.880 It feels like

00:12:34.560 some kind

00:12:34.980 of long-term,

00:12:36.320 you know,

00:12:37.060 suboptimal

00:12:37.900 situation.

00:12:40.300 And then you

00:12:40.980 say,

00:12:41.220 okay,

00:12:41.520 well,

00:12:41.820 you might do

00:12:43.340 something with

00:12:43.860 your health

00:12:44.240 care,

00:12:45.060 but it might

00:12:46.420 not affect you

00:12:47.140 personally.

00:12:48.040 It might take

00:12:48.620 a while.

00:12:49.880 Maybe it would

00:12:50.440 be okay.

00:12:51.020 It doesn't

00:12:52.520 scare you. 0.93

00:12:54.020 You just

00:12:54.420 have a

00:12:54.740 preference.

00:12:56.420 So the

00:12:57.240 president needs

00:12:57.960 to apply

00:12:58.740 some fear

00:12:59.500 to his

00:13:00.960 persuasion,

00:13:01.900 or it

00:13:02.420 probably won't

00:13:02.900 get done,

00:13:04.160 meaning he

00:13:04.660 won't win.

00:13:05.880 What would

00:13:06.300 be the

00:13:06.620 scariest thing

00:13:07.500 that they

00:13:09.140 could persuade

00:13:09.920 on?

00:13:10.640 Well,

00:13:11.000 street violence

00:13:11.740 and crime,

00:13:12.560 revolution,

00:13:13.880 socialists

00:13:14.720 taking over

00:13:15.320 and destroying

00:13:15.960 the planet.

00:13:16.460 so I

00:13:17.780 would be

00:13:18.440 expecting

00:13:19.620 that Mike

00:13:20.540 Pence in

00:13:21.360 his debate

00:13:24.480 tonight,

00:13:25.360 I think he's

00:13:25.960 going to be

00:13:26.360 pushing hard

00:13:27.100 on the

00:13:27.600 risk of

00:13:29.220 socialism.

00:13:31.100 That would

00:13:31.840 be my guess.

00:13:32.560 I think he's

00:13:33.020 going to push

00:13:33.420 hard on how

00:13:34.300 that will

00:13:34.640 destroy the

00:13:35.320 country and

00:13:36.360 we're all

00:13:36.700 in trouble.

00:13:39.940 The Democrats

00:13:41.140 are also doing

00:13:41.840 a better job

00:13:42.600 lying,

00:13:44.020 as it turns

00:13:44.460 out.

00:13:44.660 They're telling

00:13:45.580 people that

00:13:46.140 they're going

00:13:46.400 to lose

00:13:46.720 their health

00:13:47.140 care if

00:13:48.200 Trump gets

00:13:49.040 re-elected,

00:13:49.860 that you'll

00:13:50.900 lose pre-existing

00:13:53.420 conditions.

00:13:54.600 There's no

00:13:55.280 evidence that

00:13:55.880 any of this

00:13:56.340 is true,

00:13:56.960 and there's

00:13:57.460 evidence that

00:13:58.120 it's false.

00:13:59.260 But,

00:14:00.040 because the

00:14:00.700 country is

00:14:01.520 in such

00:14:02.840 information

00:14:04.620 poverty,

00:14:06.020 you can make

00:14:07.040 any claim

00:14:07.680 on the left,

00:14:09.460 and it will

00:14:10.060 never be

00:14:10.520 fact-checked,

00:14:11.440 because they

00:14:12.240 don't fact-check

00:14:13.060 themselves.

00:14:14.680 And the

00:14:15.360 people watching

00:14:16.040 the news

00:14:16.520 from the

00:14:16.900 left just

00:14:17.720 will never

00:14:18.140 see the

00:14:18.540 other argument.

00:14:19.840 So the

00:14:20.260 Democrats can

00:14:21.220 literally just

00:14:21.860 say anything,

00:14:23.020 just anything.

00:14:24.200 So they can

00:14:24.880 push the

00:14:25.360 fine people

00:14:25.940 hoax,

00:14:26.400 as you know.

00:14:27.460 They can tell

00:14:28.000 you that

00:14:28.400 Trump's taking

00:14:29.120 your health

00:14:29.520 care,

00:14:30.020 that he's

00:14:30.320 going to

00:14:30.540 cut Social

00:14:31.060 Security.

00:14:32.100 None of

00:14:32.400 this is

00:14:32.720 true.

00:14:33.960 None of

00:14:34.240 this is

00:14:34.780 based on

00:14:35.240 anything.

00:14:36.480 But they

00:14:36.840 can just

00:14:37.200 say it,

00:14:37.760 just put it

00:14:38.260 out there.

00:14:38.880 Now,

00:14:39.160 I'm not

00:14:39.420 saying that

00:14:39.820 the president

00:14:40.320 isn't also

00:14:41.100 making wild

00:14:41.900 claims,

00:14:42.460 but I

00:14:44.240 think his

00:14:44.620 wild claims

00:14:45.280 get fact-checked,

00:14:46.480 but they

00:14:46.960 don't get

00:14:47.260 fact-checked

00:14:47.860 on the

00:14:48.080 left.

00:14:50.640 I would

00:14:51.280 go for

00:14:51.600 starvation

00:14:52.260 as the

00:14:53.280 fear that

00:14:54.160 the Republicans

00:14:55.880 could push.

00:14:56.580 so Joe

00:14:59.120 Biden gave

00:14:59.640 this speech

00:15:00.220 at

00:15:00.800 Gettysburg,

00:15:01.920 the scene

00:15:03.160 of the

00:15:03.520 Gettysburg.

00:15:05.960 I'm going

00:15:06.480 to talk

00:15:06.780 about Sweden

00:15:07.960 in a little

00:15:08.340 bit.

00:15:08.660 I see your

00:15:09.100 comment there.

00:15:12.160 And I

00:15:12.820 would say

00:15:13.160 that I

00:15:13.780 listened to

00:15:14.300 a little

00:15:14.560 bit of

00:15:14.820 Biden's

00:15:15.260 speech,

00:15:15.840 and I'd

00:15:16.140 have to

00:15:16.420 say,

00:15:17.320 high marks.

00:15:18.560 I give

00:15:18.900 it high

00:15:19.160 marks.

00:15:20.100 I would

00:15:20.400 say that

00:15:20.760 Biden,

00:15:21.920 in terms

00:15:22.700 of going

00:15:23.160 to Gettysburg,

00:15:24.300 because it's

00:15:24.820 a place

00:15:25.600 famous for

00:15:27.420 civil war,

00:15:28.660 national

00:15:29.140 unrest.

00:15:30.520 So image

00:15:31.180 wise,

00:15:32.200 pretty good.

00:15:33.520 Speech

00:15:34.000 wise,

00:15:35.020 pretty good.

00:15:36.620 If I'm

00:15:37.760 being objective,

00:15:39.220 he did a

00:15:40.100 solid job

00:15:40.780 there.

00:15:41.060 I would

00:15:41.240 say just

00:15:42.780 a really

00:15:43.120 good job.

00:15:44.080 And I

00:15:44.360 thought the

00:15:44.700 content of

00:15:45.400 his speech

00:15:45.780 was strong

00:15:46.460 as well.

00:15:47.600 But as

00:15:48.620 Joel Pollack

00:15:50.440 pointed out

00:15:51.440 in his

00:15:52.180 article in

00:15:52.840 Breitbart,

00:15:54.040 that he

00:15:55.160 was doing

00:15:55.680 a unity

00:15:56.580 speech in

00:15:58.000 which he

00:15:58.380 led off

00:15:58.960 with the

00:15:59.520 most divisive

00:16:01.560 lie in

00:16:02.260 American history,

00:16:03.660 the fine

00:16:04.040 people hoax.

00:16:05.240 So he

00:16:05.800 goes to

00:16:06.500 give a

00:16:06.800 speech on

00:16:07.360 national

00:16:07.840 reconciliation,

00:16:09.840 and he

00:16:10.200 leads off

00:16:10.880 with his

00:16:11.900 own bad

00:16:12.860 behavior,

00:16:14.260 the worst

00:16:14.900 thing that's

00:16:15.420 happening in

00:16:16.240 the country.

00:16:17.160 And I

00:16:17.600 don't think

00:16:17.920 that's an

00:16:18.320 exaggeration.

00:16:19.440 His lie

00:16:20.320 about the

00:16:20.960 fine people

00:16:21.520 hoax is

00:16:22.540 the alpha

00:16:23.600 problem in

00:16:25.020 the country,

00:16:26.420 even more

00:16:27.460 than coronavirus

00:16:28.060 in my

00:16:28.940 opinion.

00:16:30.060 Because to

00:16:30.900 the extent

00:16:31.320 that people

00:16:31.760 believe the

00:16:32.600 fine people

00:16:33.360 hoax, and

00:16:34.660 apparently people

00:16:35.420 on the left

00:16:35.900 do, that

00:16:37.780 makes everything

00:16:38.860 that they do

00:16:39.580 okay.

00:16:40.720 It's the

00:16:41.420 approval to

00:16:42.720 be dangerous.

00:16:43.860 It's the

00:16:44.240 approval to

00:16:44.860 be extreme.

00:16:45.980 Because they

00:16:46.520 think they're

00:16:46.920 fighting something

00:16:47.760 extreme, which

00:16:49.660 as it turns

00:16:50.560 out, just

00:16:51.080 didn't happen,

00:16:51.820 doesn't exist.

00:16:55.000 But he can

00:16:55.980 get away with

00:16:56.460 that, because

00:16:57.320 again, there

00:16:58.160 will be no

00:16:58.560 fact-checking

00:16:59.260 of his

00:16:59.880 false claims.

00:17:05.160 Let's see.

00:17:07.820 There's a

00:17:08.740 big story, of

00:17:09.640 course, which

00:17:11.020 will only be

00:17:12.180 shown in

00:17:13.560 the right-leaning

00:17:14.720 media.

00:17:16.100 So maybe

00:17:16.960 what would

00:17:17.860 be normally

00:17:18.780 the biggest

00:17:19.460 story in the

00:17:20.140 country will

00:17:21.520 be non-existent

00:17:22.800 on CNN and

00:17:24.280 MSNBC.

00:17:25.200 It just

00:17:25.360 won't exist.

00:17:26.800 Now, I've

00:17:27.400 told you in

00:17:27.820 the past that

00:17:29.480 that's usually

00:17:30.220 an indication

00:17:30.900 of fake

00:17:31.960 news.

00:17:33.200 Fake news is

00:17:34.460 usually when

00:17:35.180 either only the

00:17:36.180 left or only

00:17:37.060 the right

00:17:37.620 report it as

00:17:38.940 even happening,

00:17:39.860 and the other

00:17:40.920 one just doesn't

00:17:41.720 act like it

00:17:42.220 didn't happen.

00:17:43.200 That usually

00:17:43.960 means it didn't

00:17:44.620 happen.

00:17:45.520 If both of

00:17:46.420 them report it

00:17:47.180 happened, it

00:17:48.160 probably did.

00:17:48.740 they might

00:17:50.200 have a

00:17:50.440 different spin

00:17:51.060 on what it

00:17:51.540 means, but

00:17:52.620 if they both

00:17:53.200 at least

00:17:53.640 report it

00:17:54.160 happened, it

00:17:55.760 probably

00:17:56.000 happened.

00:17:57.000 So right

00:17:57.580 now we've

00:17:57.940 got this

00:17:58.340 story that

00:17:59.620 only exists

00:18:00.640 on the

00:18:01.540 right, and

00:18:02.660 may only

00:18:03.160 exist there,

00:18:03.800 and it may

00:18:04.060 never be

00:18:04.500 covered by

00:18:04.940 the left,

00:18:05.840 that the

00:18:07.360 president has

00:18:08.300 now ordered

00:18:09.880 declassification

00:18:10.940 of all of

00:18:11.660 the Russia

00:18:14.060 collusion

00:18:14.780 stuff.

00:18:17.040 Now, I

00:18:17.720 don't know

00:18:18.060 what that

00:18:18.540 means, but

00:18:20.420 does it

00:18:21.020 really mean

00:18:21.720 it's all

00:18:22.280 declassified?

00:18:24.060 Really?

00:18:24.840 All of it?

00:18:25.760 Because most

00:18:26.580 of the stuff

00:18:27.000 we've seen

00:18:27.620 had redactions

00:18:28.660 like crazy.

00:18:29.860 Is he really

00:18:30.740 getting rid

00:18:31.280 of all the

00:18:32.520 redactions?

00:18:33.580 So first of

00:18:34.360 all, I don't

00:18:34.720 believe it.

00:18:35.720 You know, it

00:18:36.180 seems like too

00:18:36.940 much of a

00:18:37.380 claim.

00:18:38.060 I feel like

00:18:38.660 there have to

00:18:39.140 be redactions

00:18:39.740 somewhere.

00:18:41.060 But that's

00:18:42.940 not the big

00:18:43.320 story.

00:18:43.640 The big story

00:18:44.120 is that

00:18:44.500 what's already

00:18:45.340 released shows

00:18:47.300 that John

00:18:48.060 Brennan was

00:18:48.840 aware and

00:18:49.820 must have

00:18:50.300 briefed, I

00:18:51.580 think he

00:18:51.880 briefed Obama,

00:18:52.980 he must have

00:18:53.540 been aware

00:18:54.060 that Hillary 1.00

00:18:55.740 Clinton had

00:18:56.500 a scheme to

00:18:57.920 detract from

00:18:58.760 her own email

00:18:59.500 problem by

00:19:01.000 creating a

00:19:01.880 fake scandal

00:19:02.800 about Trump

00:19:03.640 and Russia,

00:19:04.820 which she

00:19:05.520 did, and

00:19:06.900 with the

00:19:07.300 help of her

00:19:08.080 helpers in

00:19:09.980 the Department

00:19:10.900 of Justice

00:19:11.500 and the FBI

00:19:12.160 or whatever,

00:19:12.580 CIA, and

00:19:15.020 with her

00:19:15.420 helpers,

00:19:16.280 almost succeeded

00:19:17.480 in overthrowing

00:19:18.320 the country.

00:19:19.660 Almost succeeded.

00:19:21.320 And you

00:19:21.700 know what?

00:19:23.000 She's almost

00:19:24.040 there again.

00:19:26.200 We're at the

00:19:27.400 brink of Hillary 0.51

00:19:28.340 Clinton succeeding

00:19:29.540 in the coup

00:19:31.700 that she

00:19:32.420 attempted in

00:19:33.080 2016.

00:19:34.380 Now, when I

00:19:35.060 say she's on

00:19:35.680 the brink of

00:19:36.220 succeeding, if you

00:19:37.540 look at the

00:19:38.040 polls, it

00:19:38.980 would suggest

00:19:39.560 that the

00:19:40.700 collective

00:19:41.460 lies coming

00:19:42.460 out of the

00:19:43.260 left have

00:19:46.460 done their

00:19:46.860 job and

00:19:48.320 that those

00:19:48.800 lies collectively

00:19:49.820 might, you

00:19:51.000 know, get

00:19:52.460 Biden elected,

00:19:53.380 which puts the

00:19:54.320 Hillary-Obama

00:19:55.180 crowd back in

00:19:56.140 charge.

00:19:56.600 We don't know

00:19:57.060 exactly who.

00:19:58.940 But it's

00:20:00.380 starting to look

00:20:01.260 like Hillary's 0.94

00:20:03.040 coup attempt,

00:20:04.000 which is now

00:20:04.880 clearly documented

00:20:06.040 in 2016, is

00:20:09.000 actually going

00:20:09.500 to work, like

00:20:11.980 right now, because

00:20:14.000 this election will

00:20:15.760 be completely

00:20:16.600 fraudulent because

00:20:18.000 none of the

00:20:18.520 information the

00:20:19.400 voters have to

00:20:20.980 vote on is

00:20:22.400 real.

00:20:23.540 All of our

00:20:24.460 information is

00:20:25.100 just made up,

00:20:26.000 just fake.

00:20:27.220 Now, of course,

00:20:27.900 the Russia

00:20:28.280 collusion thing

00:20:29.060 was fake news

00:20:30.080 that was an

00:20:31.520 attempt to

00:20:32.100 overthrow the

00:20:32.680 country.

00:20:33.820 This is just

00:20:34.520 more of that.

00:20:35.180 it's just

00:20:36.260 more fake

00:20:36.860 news, the

00:20:37.700 fine people

00:20:38.280 hoax being

00:20:38.820 the prime

00:20:39.200 example.

00:20:40.320 It's just a

00:20:41.120 whole bunch of

00:20:41.640 fake news that

00:20:43.060 collectively the

00:20:44.120 left gets

00:20:44.900 together and

00:20:45.820 promotes that

00:20:47.320 is so strong

00:20:48.220 when you put it

00:20:49.480 all together,

00:20:50.240 it might actually

00:20:51.540 cost Trump the

00:20:52.600 election.

00:20:54.480 I'm still

00:20:55.160 predicting he'll

00:20:55.940 win, but at

00:20:57.620 the moment, that's

00:20:58.280 what it looks

00:20:58.640 like.

00:20:59.620 So that should

00:21:01.180 be the biggest

00:21:01.800 story in the

00:21:02.520 world, right?

00:21:03.540 Not just the

00:21:04.340 biggest story in

00:21:04.900 the country, it

00:21:05.480 should be the

00:21:05.860 biggest story in

00:21:06.500 the world.

00:21:08.320 Won't even be

00:21:09.280 covered on CNN.

00:21:11.000 Won't even be

00:21:12.180 covered.

00:21:13.160 Now, there's a

00:21:13.980 race to the

00:21:14.880 finish line that's

00:21:16.420 really interesting

00:21:17.120 because Brennan and

00:21:19.400 maybe some others

00:21:20.500 in the government

00:21:21.120 might be in a

00:21:23.460 whole lot of

00:21:24.040 legal trouble, but

00:21:26.040 only if Trump

00:21:27.000 gets reelected,

00:21:28.320 because otherwise

00:21:29.100 they can stall

00:21:30.060 until Biden gets

00:21:31.260 in office and

00:21:32.000 then everybody's

00:21:32.780 home free.

00:21:33.360 So it looks

00:21:35.880 like we have

00:21:36.660 documented

00:21:37.580 evidence of

00:21:38.660 an actual

00:21:39.180 coup in

00:21:39.680 2016.

00:21:40.980 We have an

00:21:41.660 actual coup

00:21:42.400 that's in

00:21:43.020 progress right

00:21:43.760 now, a

00:21:44.200 fake news

00:21:44.680 coup.

00:21:45.700 It's, you

00:21:46.480 know, the

00:21:46.820 fake news

00:21:47.800 creates the

00:21:49.460 coup, basically.

00:21:51.280 And the

00:21:52.700 people that we

00:21:53.340 know are

00:21:53.740 involved are

00:21:56.100 on a path,

00:21:57.280 if things go

00:21:58.100 the way the

00:21:58.580 polls are

00:21:59.160 indicating,

00:22:00.100 they're on a

00:22:00.840 path to

00:22:01.400 completely get

00:22:02.080 away with it.

00:22:03.160 Not only get

00:22:03.960 away with it,

00:22:04.920 but it might

00:22:05.380 be your next

00:22:05.980 head of the

00:22:06.600 CIA.

00:22:07.800 Brennan could

00:22:08.440 be that next

00:22:09.080 head of the

00:22:09.500 CIA.

00:22:10.940 That's

00:22:11.420 completely

00:22:11.980 possible at

00:22:12.780 this point.

00:22:13.880 I can't think

00:22:14.680 of a worse

00:22:15.120 outcome, but

00:22:16.720 we're certainly

00:22:18.220 on the precipice

00:22:19.440 of that being

00:22:19.940 possible.

00:22:23.980 Let's see

00:22:24.660 what else we

00:22:25.180 got going on

00:22:25.820 here.

00:22:26.040 the stimulus

00:22:27.460 is off.

00:22:30.600 And this

00:22:31.380 is another

00:22:31.760 example of

00:22:32.500 how the

00:22:32.880 fake news

00:22:33.640 can overthrow

00:22:35.100 a government.

00:22:36.300 The accurate

00:22:37.340 news would be

00:22:38.240 like this.

00:22:39.540 Nancy Pelosi

00:22:40.280 put a bunch

00:22:40.980 of things in

00:22:42.420 the stimulus

00:22:43.380 bill that

00:22:44.880 anybody would

00:22:45.700 have known

00:22:46.140 would make it

00:22:47.020 impossible for

00:22:48.000 Republicans to

00:22:49.380 pass it.

00:22:50.380 Anybody would

00:22:50.960 know that.

00:22:52.000 So it's quite

00:22:52.680 obvious that

00:22:54.020 Nancy Pelosi

00:22:54.720 knew that

00:22:56.160 that bill was

00:22:56.900 impossible to

00:22:57.800 pass the way

00:22:59.180 it was designed.

00:23:00.580 And she wasn't

00:23:01.480 going to negotiate

00:23:02.180 it, which

00:23:03.260 further tells you

00:23:04.300 it was never

00:23:04.940 intended to be

00:23:05.820 passed.

00:23:06.540 It was intended

00:23:07.260 to fail so

00:23:08.660 they could blame

00:23:09.200 it on the

00:23:09.600 president.

00:23:10.420 That's right.

00:23:11.580 Nancy Pelosi

00:23:12.300 is actually

00:23:13.120 starving Americans,

00:23:15.120 starving, starving

00:23:16.900 Americans for

00:23:17.640 political gain.

00:23:18.920 But because

00:23:20.140 they control

00:23:20.900 the media so

00:23:22.520 much of it

00:23:23.000 anyway, that

00:23:24.080 story will turn

00:23:24.880 into the

00:23:25.520 opposite of

00:23:26.200 that.

00:23:27.320 They can just

00:23:27.940 say it's the

00:23:28.500 opposite.

00:23:29.360 It's the

00:23:29.680 opposite.

00:23:30.140 It was a

00:23:30.460 perfectly good

00:23:31.140 bill and

00:23:32.200 this President

00:23:33.060 Trump, he

00:23:34.900 decided not to

00:23:35.860 negotiate and

00:23:36.640 walked away so

00:23:37.700 it's all on

00:23:38.540 him, right?

00:23:39.580 Of course the

00:23:40.160 president has

00:23:40.860 said that he

00:23:41.740 would be

00:23:42.040 perfectly happy

00:23:42.780 to sign a

00:23:43.580 clean bill that

00:23:45.100 just had

00:23:45.480 stimulus checks and

00:23:46.760 I think one

00:23:47.700 other thing.

00:23:48.780 But they won't

00:23:49.480 send that to

00:23:50.040 him because they

00:23:51.720 can starve the

00:23:52.580 public and

00:23:53.800 blame it on

00:23:54.340 Trump because

00:23:55.180 they control

00:23:55.700 the news.

00:23:57.500 Amazingly.

00:24:02.000 Yeah, so

00:24:02.960 and also since

00:24:04.840 the media

00:24:06.120 doesn't understand

00:24:07.100 how negotiating

00:24:07.920 works, when

00:24:09.340 they see Trump

00:24:10.020 walk away from

00:24:10.800 the negotiating

00:24:11.520 table, they

00:24:12.760 say, hey,

00:24:14.440 Trump stopped

00:24:15.180 negotiating, which

00:24:17.140 is exactly the

00:24:18.040 opposite of what

00:24:18.700 happened, they

00:24:19.860 can report

00:24:20.540 exactly the

00:24:21.700 opposite of

00:24:22.300 reality and

00:24:22.940 get away with

00:24:23.420 it completely.

00:24:24.640 When he walks

00:24:25.460 away from the

00:24:26.020 table, that's

00:24:27.420 negotiating.

00:24:28.860 That's what it

00:24:29.600 is.

00:24:30.800 And he's told

00:24:32.020 us specifically, he

00:24:33.040 wrote a book

00:24:33.500 about it, walk

00:24:34.820 away from the

00:24:35.340 table, otherwise

00:24:37.460 you can't get

00:24:38.200 what you want.

00:24:39.120 So he's

00:24:39.900 negotiating, but

00:24:41.460 the news will

00:24:42.180 treat it as he

00:24:43.140 stopped negotiating

00:24:44.040 because they can.

00:24:45.540 They just have

00:24:47.640 the power to

00:24:48.960 report things as

00:24:49.860 the opposite of

00:24:50.880 what is obviously

00:24:51.800 true.

00:24:52.860 And they can get

00:24:53.780 away with it.

00:24:54.260 It's amazing.

00:24:57.940 And, of course,

00:24:59.160 the ignorance of

00:25:00.040 the public really

00:25:00.680 helps in there.

00:25:01.900 I'm seeing more

00:25:02.780 reports about that

00:25:04.020 drug that Trump

00:25:06.120 is apparently on,

00:25:07.140 this dexamethasone.

00:25:11.160 And some doctors

00:25:12.220 are saying it has

00:25:12.840 the side effects

00:25:13.480 including aggression,

00:25:14.440 agitation, and

00:25:15.600 confusion.

00:25:17.240 Now, most people

00:25:19.020 won't have those

00:25:20.040 side effects.

00:25:21.900 But I don't like

00:25:24.220 those side effects.

00:25:25.960 And I've got to

00:25:26.460 say, as much as

00:25:27.260 I love my

00:25:28.980 President Trump,

00:25:30.540 any president

00:25:31.340 who is taking a

00:25:32.940 drug that might

00:25:33.820 have those side

00:25:34.780 effects, I think

00:25:36.540 you have to take

00:25:37.160 the nuclear codes

00:25:38.820 away from them.

00:25:39.960 I really do.

00:25:41.340 And, you know,

00:25:42.300 it's so close to

00:25:43.220 an election that I

00:25:44.420 can't imagine

00:25:45.000 that would happen.

00:25:46.320 But under

00:25:46.860 normal conditions,

00:25:47.960 yeah.

00:25:49.100 Yeah.

00:25:49.480 No matter how

00:25:50.100 much you love

00:25:50.700 your president,

00:25:51.980 that's a pretty

00:25:54.120 big risk.

00:25:55.540 Right?

00:25:56.240 You would find

00:25:57.700 no value in

00:25:59.000 my commentary

00:26:00.280 if I just

00:26:01.660 agreed with the

00:26:02.460 president on

00:26:03.160 everything.

00:26:03.860 That would be

00:26:04.620 no use to you

00:26:05.720 at all.

00:26:06.580 So that's my

00:26:07.380 opinion on that.

00:26:08.060 here is the

00:26:10.040 strangest simulation

00:26:11.620 thing.

00:26:16.340 As you know,

00:26:17.820 Kellyanne Conway

00:26:18.600 has been tested

00:26:20.020 positive and as

00:26:21.480 well as her

00:26:22.140 daughter.

00:26:23.380 So both Kellyanne

00:26:24.900 and her daughter

00:26:25.580 have the

00:26:26.480 coronavirus.

00:26:27.960 I was Googling

00:26:29.520 this morning to

00:26:30.300 try to determine

00:26:31.120 if George Conway

00:26:32.480 has tested positive

00:26:34.360 for coronavirus.

00:26:35.180 You would think

00:26:37.040 that if two

00:26:37.820 family members

00:26:38.760 have tested positive,

00:26:40.060 his odds are

00:26:40.620 pretty high.

00:26:42.160 Now,

00:26:42.900 this opens up

00:26:43.800 the following

00:26:44.680 completely possible

00:26:46.560 scenario.

00:26:48.000 You've seen

00:26:48.840 George Conway,

00:26:49.860 right?

00:26:51.100 He doesn't

00:26:51.780 look...

00:26:53.340 I don't like

00:26:55.420 to fat shame,

00:26:56.420 but it's important

00:26:57.080 in the story.

00:26:57.760 So I'm not

00:26:59.200 going to fat shame

00:26:59.980 him.

00:27:00.260 I'm just going

00:27:00.700 to say he's

00:27:01.780 got an obvious

00:27:02.440 comorbidity.

00:27:04.720 Would you

00:27:05.320 agree?

00:27:06.380 And far more,

00:27:07.740 I think,

00:27:08.540 if I can remember

00:27:09.440 what he looked

00:27:10.280 like,

00:27:10.580 far more than

00:27:11.340 Trump.

00:27:13.260 And there is

00:27:14.440 a non-zero

00:27:15.180 chance that

00:27:16.800 Trump,

00:27:17.740 through the

00:27:18.200 coronavirus,

00:27:19.640 will take

00:27:20.180 out his

00:27:20.660 biggest critic.

00:27:23.360 And that

00:27:23.880 would be,

00:27:24.720 first of all,

00:27:25.200 tragic.

00:27:25.740 I'm not hoping

00:27:26.840 that that

00:27:27.320 happens.

00:27:27.940 I'm not a

00:27:28.560 George Conway

00:27:29.240 fan,

00:27:30.100 but we

00:27:30.680 don't hope

00:27:31.600 illness on

00:27:32.420 anybody.

00:27:33.440 We don't

00:27:34.040 hope,

00:27:34.800 you know,

00:27:35.180 we don't

00:27:35.440 wish for

00:27:35.860 any violence

00:27:36.980 or any

00:27:38.140 kind of bad

00:27:38.760 outcomes for

00:27:39.340 anybody.

00:27:39.940 I hope you

00:27:40.420 don't either.

00:27:42.100 But in

00:27:42.780 terms of

00:27:43.340 the simulation,

00:27:45.640 this is

00:27:46.160 really possible

00:27:47.100 now.

00:27:48.320 It's entirely

00:27:49.360 possible that

00:27:51.240 Trump's

00:27:51.920 number one

00:27:52.760 critic could

00:27:54.160 be susceptible

00:27:54.820 to this.

00:27:56.020 And if it

00:27:56.540 turned out

00:27:56.980 that,

00:27:57.420 well,

00:27:59.480 if it

00:27:59.700 turned out

00:28:00.060 that that

00:28:00.420 happened,

00:28:01.020 I don't

00:28:01.780 know what

00:28:02.160 I would

00:28:02.420 think about

00:28:02.800 reality after

00:28:03.600 that.

00:28:04.020 It would

00:28:04.280 just be so

00:28:05.100 mind-bogglingly

00:28:07.320 looking like a

00:28:08.820 movie script,

00:28:09.500 I just wouldn't

00:28:10.040 know what to

00:28:10.440 think of it.

00:28:11.280 Here's another

00:28:11.920 one like that.

00:28:14.260 I saw a

00:28:15.140 chart of

00:28:16.640 various countries'

00:28:18.020 opinions of

00:28:18.680 China.

00:28:19.760 And if you

00:28:20.460 look at,

00:28:20.940 you know,

00:28:21.440 the various

00:28:22.080 countries and

00:28:22.900 what they

00:28:23.200 thought of

00:28:23.600 China over 0.98

00:28:24.100 the years,

00:28:24.920 it's, you

00:28:25.380 know, up and

00:28:25.860 down, but

00:28:27.020 about 2018,

00:28:29.740 the dislike

00:28:30.760 of China just

00:28:31.500 went through

00:28:31.940 the roof.

00:28:33.420 So every

00:28:34.200 country in

00:28:35.580 the world

00:28:35.940 just had a

00:28:36.620 big change

00:28:37.700 around 2018.

00:28:39.300 Boom.

00:28:40.460 Now, here's

00:28:41.440 the simulation

00:28:42.000 part of that.

00:28:43.760 Okay?

00:28:45.660 And I

00:28:46.420 know from

00:28:47.240 experience that

00:28:48.840 at least a

00:28:49.440 third of you

00:28:50.080 are going to

00:28:50.780 misinterpret

00:28:51.520 misinterpret what

00:28:52.460 I say next.

00:28:54.160 So I'll just

00:28:55.480 let that happen 0.91

00:28:56.300 because I

00:28:57.040 can't help it.

00:28:58.200 I can only

00:28:58.660 say this as

00:28:59.340 clearly as I

00:29:00.140 can, knowing

00:29:01.460 that a third

00:29:02.040 of you will

00:29:02.620 permanently

00:29:03.140 misinterpret it.

00:29:04.660 It goes like

00:29:05.180 this.

00:29:06.800 In 2018, my

00:29:07.960 stepson died of

00:29:09.100 a fentanyl

00:29:10.760 overdose.

00:29:11.460 Fentanyl, of

00:29:12.080 course, comes

00:29:12.640 from China, and

00:29:13.880 they do it

00:29:14.300 intentionally to

00:29:15.340 hurt the

00:29:15.820 United States.

00:29:17.480 At that time,

00:29:18.860 I declared that

00:29:19.880 China was my 1.00

00:29:20.620 mortal enemy

00:29:21.260 and I was

00:29:22.280 going to take

00:29:22.860 them down or

00:29:24.100 certainly try as

00:29:25.980 hard as I

00:29:26.420 could.

00:29:27.520 So exactly the

00:29:28.700 time that I

00:29:29.300 publicly announced

00:29:30.440 I was going to

00:29:31.100 take down China 0.91

00:29:32.040 and destroy 0.82

00:29:32.920 their reputation

00:29:34.620 first, their

00:29:36.340 reputation just

00:29:37.540 fell off a

00:29:38.200 cliff.

00:29:39.440 And all over

00:29:40.820 the world, people

00:29:42.040 were hating China.

00:29:43.520 Now, I'm not

00:29:44.200 going to say, and

00:29:45.480 here's the part

00:29:46.020 you'll misinterpret,

00:29:47.260 I'm not claiming

00:29:48.020 I did that.

00:29:48.780 A third of the

00:29:50.180 people listening

00:29:50.780 will go away and 0.88

00:29:52.080 say, he just

00:29:52.960 claimed he did

00:29:53.640 that.

00:29:55.080 I'm telling you, I'm

00:29:57.020 not claiming that.

00:29:58.520 I'm claiming it as

00:29:59.400 a coincidence.

00:30:01.580 But it's a big

00:30:02.360 one.

00:30:03.540 And by itself, it

00:30:05.140 wouldn't mean

00:30:05.460 anything, right?

00:30:06.160 Because a lot of

00:30:06.700 people probably

00:30:07.320 turned negative on

00:30:09.060 China around the

00:30:09.840 same time.

00:30:10.900 So if you just

00:30:11.840 looked at it in

00:30:12.460 isolation, it

00:30:13.660 wouldn't mean

00:30:13.980 much.

00:30:14.920 But I got to

00:30:15.700 tell you, the

00:30:16.400 number of times

00:30:17.240 in my life

00:30:18.300 that I've

00:30:20.180 picked a

00:30:21.980 desirable

00:30:22.540 global thing

00:30:23.960 to happen

00:30:24.500 and then watched

00:30:25.980 it happen just

00:30:26.820 when I decided

00:30:27.700 it should happen

00:30:28.480 is really

00:30:29.760 freaking me out

00:30:30.520 a little bit.

00:30:31.740 Just a little

00:30:32.280 bit.

00:30:33.180 So the point

00:30:34.280 of the story

00:30:34.720 is not that I'm

00:30:35.580 changing world

00:30:36.420 events.

00:30:37.240 It's that I

00:30:38.140 don't understand

00:30:38.900 why they change

00:30:39.740 when I want

00:30:40.240 them to.

00:30:40.640 am I just

00:30:43.100 good at guessing

00:30:43.760 what will

00:30:44.180 happen?

00:30:45.480 I'm genuinely

00:30:46.440 confused by it

00:30:47.660 because it

00:30:48.000 happens so

00:30:48.600 regularly.

00:30:50.200 Someday I'll

00:30:50.860 give you the

00:30:51.340 list of things

00:30:52.160 that happened

00:30:53.320 just about the

00:30:54.140 time I started

00:30:54.840 persuading in

00:30:55.600 that direction.

00:30:56.800 I feel like

00:30:57.680 somebody says

00:31:00.160 breaking news.

00:31:01.940 Is something

00:31:02.640 breaking right

00:31:03.260 now?

00:31:05.000 Tell me in

00:31:05.580 the comments

00:31:09.020 if you see

00:31:09.620 something.

00:31:11.880 Somebody says

00:31:12.680 you caused

00:31:14.700 it.

00:31:14.960 I know you

00:31:15.320 did.

00:31:15.820 Well I don't

00:31:16.280 make that

00:31:16.680 claim but I

00:31:17.540 will tell you

00:31:18.180 that I was

00:31:20.460 trying to make

00:31:21.440 exactly this

00:31:22.300 happen.

00:31:23.520 And at the

00:31:24.160 time you

00:31:24.800 would have

00:31:25.080 said it would

00:31:25.500 be unlikely

00:31:26.100 wouldn't you?

00:31:27.200 If in 2018

00:31:28.220 when I said

00:31:29.200 publicly as I

00:31:30.360 did a number

00:31:30.800 of times that

00:31:32.060 I determined

00:31:33.300 that China was 0.73

00:31:34.040 my enemy and

00:31:34.920 I was going to

00:31:35.380 try to take

00:31:35.900 them down you

00:31:37.420 probably didn't

00:31:38.040 think much

00:31:38.540 would change

00:31:39.140 did you?

00:31:40.880 You probably

00:31:41.680 thought 2020

00:31:42.920 would look a

00:31:43.600 lot like 2018

00:31:44.400 in terms of

00:31:45.860 China.

00:31:46.480 You probably

00:31:46.780 wouldn't think

00:31:47.220 much would be

00:31:47.740 different except

00:31:49.140 we're decoupling

00:31:50.420 and there's a

00:31:52.120 lot different.

00:31:53.320 There's a lot

00:31:53.900 different but I

00:31:55.300 don't take credit

00:31:55.880 for that.

00:31:56.620 All right.

00:31:57.320 Facebook has

00:31:58.200 decided to ban

00:31:59.200 QAnon across

00:32:00.940 all of its

00:32:01.460 platforms.

00:32:02.860 What do you

00:32:03.460 think of that?

00:32:04.760 Do you think

00:32:05.200 it's reasonable

00:32:05.800 for Facebook

00:32:06.540 to ban

00:32:07.800 QAnon based

00:32:09.260 on the fact

00:32:09.900 that they

00:32:10.480 spread, I

00:32:11.440 guess this

00:32:11.880 would be their 0.94

00:32:12.400 argument, that

00:32:13.540 they spread

00:32:14.140 untruths that

00:32:16.160 presumably are

00:32:17.740 potentially dangerous

00:32:19.700 untruths?

00:32:20.480 Do you think

00:32:21.200 that's reasonable?

00:32:23.220 Here's what I

00:32:24.140 think.

00:32:25.100 It might be

00:32:26.240 reasonable, I

00:32:27.740 could totally see

00:32:28.880 how it would be

00:32:29.600 reasonable, to

00:32:30.800 remove conspiracy

00:32:32.340 theory, BS

00:32:33.920 from your

00:32:35.040 platform.

00:32:36.680 But, don't

00:32:38.160 you have to be

00:32:38.640 a little

00:32:38.880 consistent?

00:32:40.560 That's my only

00:32:41.440 issue.

00:32:42.680 Why can they

00:32:43.380 allow Joe

00:32:44.560 Biden to base

00:32:46.580 his campaign on

00:32:47.620 an obvious

00:32:48.360 falsehood, the

00:32:50.140 fine people

00:32:50.660 hoax, when you

00:32:51.840 just have to look

00:32:52.480 at the transcript

00:32:53.120 to know that it's

00:32:54.280 not true?

00:32:55.680 Just look at the

00:32:56.400 transcript, it's

00:32:57.060 that easy.

00:32:58.120 Now, why is it

00:32:59.000 that the most

00:33:00.860 divisive and

00:33:02.040 dangerous hoax

00:33:04.140 in the history

00:33:04.920 of America,

00:33:06.420 that's my claim

00:33:07.480 for the fine

00:33:08.160 people hoax, the

00:33:09.260 most dangerous

00:33:10.000 hoax in all

00:33:10.760 of American

00:33:11.620 history, why

00:33:13.140 is that okay?

00:33:15.060 Now, you

00:33:16.320 could say, well,

00:33:17.720 you know, it's a

00:33:18.320 political claim and

00:33:19.960 there's lots of

00:33:20.560 political claims and

00:33:21.720 we can't really

00:33:22.440 fact check all

00:33:23.260 that and people

00:33:24.540 will just put it

00:33:25.140 in context, it's

00:33:25.900 just a political

00:33:26.560 claim.

00:33:28.600 Is it?

00:33:29.840 I would say

00:33:30.500 no.

00:33:30.800 Here's a political

00:33:32.820 claim.

00:33:34.820 President Trump

00:33:35.620 will cut your

00:33:36.300 social security.

00:33:37.920 It's not true.

00:33:39.400 It's the opposite

00:33:40.140 of what he says

00:33:40.860 he'll do and

00:33:41.480 he's been pretty

00:33:42.060 good about doing

00:33:42.740 what he says

00:33:43.240 he'll do and

00:33:44.520 not doing what

00:33:45.120 he says he

00:33:45.520 won't do.

00:33:45.940 He's been

00:33:46.180 pretty good at

00:33:46.680 that.

00:33:47.400 So it's not

00:33:47.840 true.

00:33:49.580 Is that okay?

00:33:50.900 Is it okay to

00:33:51.600 have something

00:33:52.060 that's clearly

00:33:52.940 not true, this

00:33:55.040 political claim?

00:33:56.240 I would say

00:33:56.840 probably that's

00:33:57.860 okay because

00:33:59.360 as soon as

00:34:00.620 you get into

00:34:01.020 the business

00:34:01.480 of determining

00:34:02.120 what's true

00:34:02.720 and not, it's

00:34:04.480 just a forever

00:34:05.200 rabbit hole.

00:34:05.980 You can't get

00:34:06.420 out of that

00:34:06.760 hole, right?

00:34:08.140 Because, you

00:34:08.980 know, there are

00:34:09.320 lots of things

00:34:09.840 that are gray

00:34:10.340 area, some

00:34:11.640 people could say

00:34:12.340 it's true, some

00:34:13.360 people could say

00:34:13.860 it's not true.

00:34:14.880 You could never

00:34:15.760 really use that

00:34:16.860 standard of that

00:34:18.500 it's true or not

00:34:19.360 true.

00:34:19.900 You'd have to use

00:34:20.800 the standard that

00:34:22.640 is not true and

00:34:23.780 on top of that

00:34:24.800 it's dangerous.

00:34:26.780 I think that's

00:34:27.880 what put QAnon

00:34:28.820 over the top.

00:34:30.000 Not that it's

00:34:30.840 untrue, but it's

00:34:32.680 that it's untrue

00:34:33.700 and has a fairly

00:34:35.640 obvious potential

00:34:36.840 for danger.

00:34:39.440 That's what the

00:34:40.260 fine people hoax

00:34:41.080 is.

00:34:42.340 The fine people

00:34:43.020 hoax isn't just

00:34:44.020 something that's

00:34:44.660 untrue.

00:34:45.580 It's not like

00:34:46.300 saying I'll raise

00:34:47.140 your taxes.

00:34:48.320 It's not like

00:34:48.980 saying I'll cut

00:34:49.660 your social security.

00:34:51.020 It's not like

00:34:51.700 saying, you know,

00:34:53.000 although you can

00:34:54.120 keep your doctor.

00:34:55.900 It's not like

00:34:56.640 any of those

00:34:57.200 things.

00:34:57.820 Those are just

00:34:58.480 untrue.

00:34:59.720 They're not

00:35:00.100 dangerous.

00:35:01.500 The fine people

00:35:02.260 hoax could get

00:35:03.640 me killed.

00:35:05.200 Me, personally.

00:35:06.920 I could get

00:35:07.860 killed because

00:35:09.460 of that hoax

00:35:10.900 and all that

00:35:11.660 it supports.

00:35:12.660 Because it

00:35:13.140 supports a whole

00:35:13.860 structure of

00:35:14.580 beliefs that,

00:35:16.280 you know, I

00:35:16.700 think that's the

00:35:17.360 strongest pillar

00:35:18.400 and it's not

00:35:19.340 real.

00:35:20.520 So that's the

00:35:21.360 world you live

00:35:21.900 in.

00:35:22.180 All right, so I

00:35:22.760 think Facebook

00:35:23.280 just needs to be

00:35:24.020 consistent.

00:35:25.100 I wouldn't mind

00:35:25.860 them banning

00:35:26.460 QAnon if

00:35:28.460 they also

00:35:29.020 banned the 0.98

00:35:30.020 fine people

00:35:30.620 hoax.

00:35:31.900 I would say

00:35:32.380 those are

00:35:32.720 equivalents.

00:35:35.960 Interestingly,

00:35:37.220 a fellow

00:35:37.720 named Glenn

00:35:38.480 Lowry, who's

00:35:40.040 a scholar,

00:35:41.660 he's got

00:35:42.100 together with

00:35:42.620 a bunch of

00:35:43.080 other scholars

00:35:43.740 and they're

00:35:45.200 calling for

00:35:45.760 the Pulitzer

00:35:46.320 board to

00:35:47.000 revoke the

00:35:47.880 Pulitzer Prize

00:35:48.920 awarded earlier

00:35:50.320 this year to

00:35:51.960 Nicole Hannah

00:35:52.760 Jones for

00:35:53.340 her 1619

00:35:54.460 project and

00:35:56.060 they're asking

00:35:56.540 for the

00:35:56.940 Pulitzer Prize

00:35:57.680 to be revoked

00:35:58.640 because the

00:36:00.160 scholarship in

00:36:01.300 that piece of

00:36:01.940 work is

00:36:03.960 lacking,

00:36:05.200 meaning that

00:36:05.860 there's a claim

00:36:06.540 in there that's

00:36:07.140 ridiculously untrue,

00:36:09.000 specifically the

00:36:10.000 claim that the

00:36:10.720 American Revolution

00:36:11.660 was fought in

00:36:13.200 large part to

00:36:14.100 preserve slavery.

00:36:15.140 apparently there's

00:36:17.480 no historical

00:36:18.800 evidence that

00:36:19.500 that was the

00:36:20.060 case, but

00:36:21.360 that's part of

00:36:22.340 the learning and

00:36:23.120 somebody got a

00:36:24.360 Pulitzer Prize

00:36:25.560 for that

00:36:26.040 completely false

00:36:27.120 claim.

00:36:29.160 Of course,

00:36:29.920 you're all going

00:36:30.220 to watch the

00:36:30.680 VP debates

00:36:33.360 tonight.

00:36:34.420 I think the

00:36:35.340 VP debate is

00:36:36.360 going to be more

00:36:37.000 interesting than

00:36:38.840 you think.

00:36:40.120 It might be

00:36:40.720 more interesting

00:36:41.300 than you think.

00:36:41.940 Of course,

00:36:43.520 the big drama

00:36:44.500 is that Kamala

00:36:45.500 Harris is going

00:36:46.160 to ask for

00:36:46.720 plexiglass walls

00:36:48.140 and Pence wants

00:36:50.660 to have no

00:36:51.520 wall.

00:36:52.460 Now, if it

00:36:53.160 turns out that

00:36:54.240 Kamala is in a

00:36:55.540 plexiglass box

00:36:56.980 and Pence is

00:36:58.680 not, who

00:36:59.760 wins?

00:37:01.280 Who wins?

00:37:02.520 Does Kamala

00:37:03.140 Harris win because

00:37:04.000 she's the one

00:37:04.560 playing it safe

00:37:05.360 and she's got

00:37:06.380 her little

00:37:06.780 plexiglass

00:37:07.640 cubicle?

00:37:08.980 Or does Pence

00:37:10.000 win because

00:37:11.200 he's clearly

00:37:11.900 far enough

00:37:12.500 away from

00:37:12.940 people to

00:37:13.480 not infect

00:37:14.040 anybody, but

00:37:15.300 he's also not

00:37:16.300 being a little

00:37:16.840 bitch in a 1.00

00:37:17.580 plastic box.

00:37:19.300 Who wins?

00:37:20.980 Well, it might

00:37:21.860 depend, you

00:37:22.520 know, people

00:37:23.140 will pick sides

00:37:24.120 with their

00:37:24.440 political favorite,

00:37:26.080 but I think

00:37:26.640 Pence wins

00:37:27.260 that.

00:37:28.140 In terms of

00:37:28.960 the optics,

00:37:30.080 you don't want

00:37:30.720 to be the

00:37:31.120 bubble girl,

00:37:32.400 all right?

00:37:32.940 If Pence is a

00:37:34.200 free-range

00:37:34.920 chicken on

00:37:35.720 that stage and

00:37:37.280 Kamala Harris is

00:37:38.140 a bubble girl,

00:37:39.860 bubble girl does 0.96

00:37:40.800 not beat free

00:37:41.880 range chicken in

00:37:43.260 optics.

00:37:43.860 It's not even

00:37:44.360 close, right?

00:37:46.020 So I don't know

00:37:46.820 if it'll turn out

00:37:47.540 that way.

00:37:48.040 One's in a bubble

00:37:48.700 and one isn't,

00:37:49.920 but bubble girl 0.63

00:37:50.920 doesn't have an

00:37:51.820 advantage.

00:37:53.140 Now, here's the

00:37:54.280 other stuff.

00:37:55.860 The first thing

00:37:56.700 you need to know

00:37:57.180 about vice-president

00:37:58.660 debates is that

00:38:00.420 that's a good

00:38:00.960 place to test

00:38:01.900 out messages.

00:38:03.520 So what you

00:38:04.300 might see is,

00:38:05.740 you might see

00:38:07.040 Pence framing

00:38:08.420 one of the

00:38:09.060 issues or

00:38:09.640 more in a

00:38:10.780 way that you

00:38:11.220 haven't seen

00:38:11.860 before, which

00:38:13.600 would be really

00:38:14.560 interesting.

00:38:15.360 Because if you

00:38:15.920 see that, it

00:38:16.740 means he's

00:38:17.200 testing it,

00:38:18.040 because that

00:38:18.320 would be a

00:38:18.720 normal procedure.

00:38:20.040 You let the

00:38:20.500 vice-president

00:38:21.080 test it.

00:38:22.120 If it doesn't

00:38:22.780 work, you just

00:38:24.320 don't do it

00:38:24.780 yourself.

00:38:25.760 If it becomes

00:38:26.800 a big controversy

00:38:28.160 and it's a

00:38:29.300 problem, then the

00:38:30.860 president could say,

00:38:31.700 well, that was the

00:38:32.180 vice-president.

00:38:32.980 You know, just

00:38:33.320 listen to me and

00:38:34.580 sort of make it

00:38:35.280 go away, because 0.67

00:38:36.340 that's typical

00:38:37.420 too.

00:38:38.280 Vice-presidents do

00:38:39.440 sometimes say

00:38:40.180 something that the

00:38:41.260 top of the ticket

00:38:42.160 has to modify.

00:38:44.640 Fairly ordinary.

00:38:45.880 I think it's

00:38:46.340 happened in a lot

00:38:47.460 of different races.

00:38:48.900 So it's a low-risk

00:38:51.520 thing for Pence to

00:38:52.840 try on a new

00:38:53.460 argument.

00:38:53.900 So see if he does

00:38:54.520 that.

00:38:55.340 And here's what's

00:38:56.660 interesting.

00:38:57.660 And I've said this

00:38:58.580 a number of times

00:38:59.560 and I'm just going

00:39:00.160 to keep saying it.

00:39:00.960 I think Pence is

00:39:02.880 the most underrated

00:39:04.220 public servant

00:39:06.540 in America.

00:39:08.340 The most underrated

00:39:09.620 in terms of how

00:39:10.820 good he is.

00:39:12.380 Because the job of

00:39:14.000 the vice-president is

00:39:15.120 primarily not to

00:39:16.460 cause trouble, right?

00:39:17.820 You don't want to

00:39:18.400 become a problem.

00:39:19.780 You just want to

00:39:20.320 be a steady

00:39:21.280 spare tire.

00:39:22.560 And I think he

00:39:23.140 does that better

00:39:23.800 than just about

00:39:24.400 anybody's ever

00:39:25.140 done it.

00:39:26.120 I think that he

00:39:26.880 stays out of

00:39:27.560 trouble like

00:39:28.180 nobody's business.

00:39:29.700 He also can win

00:39:31.120 debates.

00:39:32.440 I believe he was

00:39:33.300 considered the

00:39:33.940 winner of his

00:39:34.760 Tim Kaine

00:39:35.480 debate in

00:39:36.000 2016.

00:39:37.220 He's good at

00:39:37.840 it.

00:39:38.420 He's excellent

00:39:39.380 in public.

00:39:41.720 You know he's

00:39:42.480 not going to

00:39:42.820 have a weird

00:39:43.340 gaffe.

00:39:44.320 You know he's

00:39:44.980 going to be

00:39:45.360 prepared.

00:39:46.480 You know he's

00:39:47.160 going to present

00:39:47.800 well.

00:39:48.460 You know he's

00:39:48.980 not going to

00:39:49.360 have an emotional

00:39:50.620 flip-out moment.

00:39:52.220 You know he's

00:39:52.740 strong enough to

00:39:53.500 handle whatever's

00:39:54.260 coming.

00:39:55.920 He is really

00:39:56.760 solid.

00:39:58.240 Now do you

00:39:58.660 know that about

00:39:59.320 Kamala Harris?

00:40:00.660 Would you say

00:40:01.300 to yourself,

00:40:01.860 yeah, I know

00:40:02.580 Kamala Harris is

00:40:04.060 just as strong

00:40:04.940 as all those

00:40:05.540 things I said

00:40:06.140 about Pence?

00:40:07.680 Nope.

00:40:08.800 She could have

00:40:09.500 some moments.

00:40:10.680 So she is

00:40:11.260 capable of

00:40:11.940 moments, you

00:40:12.820 know, to

00:40:13.180 capture the

00:40:14.680 news cycle and

00:40:15.360 that could be

00:40:15.720 dangerous.

00:40:16.520 But she's not 0.62

00:40:17.360 in his class.

00:40:19.040 He is just

00:40:20.160 a better

00:40:21.440 debater.

00:40:22.960 And if I were

00:40:23.760 her I'd be a

00:40:24.420 little bit

00:40:24.720 worried.

00:40:25.460 Because people

00:40:26.020 are going to

00:40:26.380 look at the

00:40:26.900 vice presidential

00:40:27.660 debate a little

00:40:28.560 bit harder than

00:40:29.340 they would

00:40:29.640 normally.

00:40:30.660 Because people

00:40:31.400 are looking at

00:40:32.300 Kamala as maybe 0.84

00:40:33.340 the top of the

00:40:34.100 ticket.

00:40:35.220 Think about

00:40:35.880 this.

00:40:38.000 Pence could,

00:40:40.480 I'm not

00:40:40.940 predicting this

00:40:41.700 because this

00:40:42.100 would be an

00:40:42.520 unlikely outcome,

00:40:44.140 but he could.

00:40:45.940 He could end

00:40:47.240 the election

00:40:47.760 tonight.

00:40:49.120 That's possible.

00:40:50.720 Here's how he'd

00:40:51.440 have to do it.

00:40:52.460 He would just

00:40:53.020 have to expose

00:40:53.960 Kamala and just

00:40:54.900 destroy her and 0.99

00:40:55.940 eviscerate her 0.61

00:40:56.840 in the debate.

00:40:58.100 If he does

00:40:59.000 that, suddenly

00:41:00.160 Joe Biden

00:41:00.900 doesn't look like

00:41:02.240 such a good

00:41:02.780 package because

00:41:03.600 you've always

00:41:04.120 thought, all

00:41:05.340 right, really

00:41:05.800 it's about the

00:41:06.440 number two,

00:41:07.920 right?

00:41:08.480 If he destroys

00:41:09.660 number two,

00:41:11.620 he destroys

00:41:12.940 number one.

00:41:14.400 That wouldn't

00:41:15.320 be true to

00:41:15.880 the reverse.

00:41:16.760 If Pence were

00:41:17.760 to lose the

00:41:18.480 debate, what's

00:41:20.980 anybody going to

00:41:21.580 say, really?

00:41:23.220 Are you going to

00:41:24.120 say, therefore I

00:41:24.940 change my vote?

00:41:26.440 Nope.

00:41:27.300 You're not going

00:41:27.900 to change your

00:41:28.360 vote.

00:41:29.280 So first of

00:41:29.900 all, it's very

00:41:30.520 unlikely he's

00:41:31.280 going to lose.

00:41:32.800 It'll be a tie

00:41:34.140 or he'll win.

00:41:36.500 I would say

00:41:37.040 that's a fair

00:41:37.760 estimate.

00:41:38.700 But he might

00:41:39.420 win, and this

00:41:40.240 is the thing I

00:41:40.880 don't think people

00:41:41.460 are counting on.

00:41:43.200 He has the

00:41:44.280 skill, he does

00:41:46.060 have the skill,

00:41:47.320 compared to

00:41:48.160 Kamala Harris,

00:41:49.860 to eviscerate her.

00:41:52.140 Now, probably not.

00:41:54.020 I think she'll

00:41:54.880 rise to the

00:41:55.420 challenge, and

00:41:55.980 usually these

00:41:56.560 things look

00:41:57.080 closely, even

00:41:58.340 if you think

00:41:59.060 somebody won.

00:42:00.280 But he does

00:42:00.920 have the

00:42:01.320 talent.

00:42:02.500 He has the

00:42:03.180 talent to

00:42:03.800 completely take

00:42:04.700 her out. 0.82

00:42:05.640 And I don't

00:42:06.500 think the risk

00:42:07.080 works in the

00:42:07.620 other direction

00:42:08.200 in this case.

00:42:09.700 So if he

00:42:10.280 exposes her as

00:42:11.400 unusually weak,

00:42:13.980 could change

00:42:14.800 the race.

00:42:15.880 We'll see.

00:42:16.660 Have you

00:42:20.380 noticed, let

00:42:21.000 me just do a

00:42:21.700 little recap

00:42:22.620 here on, oh,

00:42:24.580 I want to talk

00:42:25.060 about Sweden

00:42:25.600 before we do

00:42:26.240 that.

00:42:27.240 So I was

00:42:28.440 looking at a

00:42:28.820 tweet by, I

00:42:30.040 don't know how

00:42:30.360 to pronounce

00:42:30.720 his name,

00:42:31.500 Jainan Weiss,

00:42:33.400 I think.

00:42:34.420 Jainan, or

00:42:35.100 Jainan.

00:42:36.420 And he

00:42:37.020 showed some

00:42:37.580 graphs about

00:42:38.940 showing Sweden

00:42:40.440 compared to some

00:42:41.340 other countries,

00:42:42.500 UK, France, and

00:42:43.760 Spain.

00:42:44.100 And the

00:42:45.460 point he was

00:42:46.180 making is that

00:42:47.040 Sweden is doing 0.50

00:42:47.860 great in terms of

00:42:49.220 death rate and

00:42:50.380 infections.

00:42:50.840 So very low, and

00:42:52.560 I think trending

00:42:53.260 down.

00:42:54.220 Whereas there are

00:42:55.220 at least three

00:42:55.920 countries he

00:42:56.540 mentioned, and

00:42:57.280 the US I think

00:42:58.040 he threw in

00:42:58.420 there too.

00:42:59.100 So UK, France, 0.99

00:43:00.260 and Spain, where

00:43:01.400 they're having

00:43:01.900 more infections.

00:43:03.940 Now his point

00:43:04.560 was that Sweden

00:43:05.580 has essentially

00:43:06.620 stopped the

00:43:08.320 lockdown.

00:43:09.240 They've gone

00:43:09.860 back to something

00:43:10.660 closer to normal.

00:43:12.440 And he's saying

00:43:13.480 that Sweden has

00:43:14.080 Sweden is doing 0.50

00:43:15.040 great, doing

00:43:16.640 none of the

00:43:17.240 things that the

00:43:18.200 countries that

00:43:18.860 are doing

00:43:19.200 poorly feel

00:43:20.760 they need to

00:43:21.300 do, like the

00:43:22.060 lockdowns and

00:43:22.780 the masks and

00:43:23.680 stuff.

00:43:24.640 Now, first of

00:43:25.580 all, I don't

00:43:25.860 think the Sweden

00:43:26.440 story is that

00:43:27.160 clean.

00:43:27.720 I think that the

00:43:28.400 Swedes are

00:43:29.400 wearing masks,

00:43:30.540 and I think that

00:43:31.360 they are

00:43:31.940 voluntarily socially

00:43:33.280 distancing.

00:43:34.460 So it's not

00:43:35.580 really a clean

00:43:36.880 comparison.

00:43:38.160 But he tries to

00:43:40.100 make this case,

00:43:41.280 and I am not

00:43:42.340 convinced, and

00:43:43.120 here's why.

00:43:44.080 Number one,

00:43:45.380 every time you

00:43:46.660 see somebody

00:43:47.260 say, I'm

00:43:47.920 going to

00:43:48.160 compare one

00:43:48.860 country, no

00:43:49.600 matter what

00:43:50.060 country, to

00:43:51.320 these three or

00:43:52.340 four or five

00:43:53.320 countries, you

00:43:54.800 can just forget

00:43:55.520 what they're

00:43:55.900 saying, because

00:43:57.080 nothing they say

00:43:57.860 is useful.

00:43:59.560 If out of all

00:44:00.360 the countries in

00:44:01.020 the world, I

00:44:01.720 don't know, 180,

00:44:02.740 whatever there

00:44:03.200 are, if you're

00:44:04.120 going to take

00:44:04.600 six of them and

00:44:06.480 say, I can tell

00:44:07.660 something from

00:44:08.380 these six, that's

00:44:09.740 probably not true.

00:44:11.700 It's probably

00:44:12.520 cherry-picking, if

00:44:13.700 you had picked

00:44:14.140 other countries, you

00:44:15.080 might get a

00:44:15.520 different result.

00:44:16.720 So first of all,

00:44:17.500 anytime you see a

00:44:18.340 coronavirus graph

00:44:19.520 with three or

00:44:21.120 five countries,

00:44:22.560 don't believe

00:44:23.480 anything you see

00:44:24.520 on that graph.

00:44:25.680 That is cherry-picked

00:44:26.940 data.

00:44:27.800 It might be true,

00:44:29.180 but you shouldn't

00:44:29.960 assume it's true,

00:44:31.200 because it's

00:44:32.700 non-credible by

00:44:33.980 design, just a few

00:44:35.180 countries.

00:44:35.560 So, but here

00:44:37.860 was, in part of

00:44:39.140 his Twitter thread,

00:44:41.540 he had this little

00:44:42.680 throwaway line.

00:44:44.180 He said, and

00:44:45.080 yes, other

00:44:46.220 Nordic countries

00:44:47.060 did better than

00:44:47.880 the Swedes.

00:44:49.420 What?

00:44:50.840 Wait a minute.

00:44:51.620 His point was

00:44:52.320 that Sweden is

00:44:53.840 doing a great job

00:44:54.900 without the

00:44:55.620 lockdowns and

00:44:56.280 the masks, but

00:44:57.700 he compared it

00:44:58.340 to UK, France,

00:44:59.480 and Sweden.

00:45:00.240 But then in the

00:45:00.960 tweet, he throws

00:45:01.840 in this line, yes,

00:45:03.320 other Nordic

00:45:04.040 countries did

00:45:04.680 better than the

00:45:05.340 Swedes, but 0.98

00:45:06.660 that is not

00:45:07.300 proof lockdowns

00:45:08.300 work, because

00:45:08.880 the other Nordic 0.98

00:45:09.580 countries did

00:45:10.160 the lockdowns.

00:45:11.400 It may just

00:45:12.160 be proof that

00:45:12.800 the Swedes

00:45:13.520 should have

00:45:14.300 protected their

00:45:15.040 nursing homes

00:45:15.760 better.

00:45:16.880 Maybe.

00:45:18.420 Here's my

00:45:19.240 take.

00:45:20.780 In other

00:45:21.220 words, the

00:45:21.960 Nordic countries,

00:45:23.840 the ones that

00:45:24.660 supplement with

00:45:25.620 vitamin D all

00:45:26.960 year round,

00:45:27.780 because they

00:45:28.280 don't get enough

00:45:28.920 vitamin D.

00:45:30.060 So, apparently

00:45:30.640 in Sweden, it's

00:45:31.780 typical to take

00:45:32.760 fish oil on a

00:45:34.760 daily basis to

00:45:35.640 get your

00:45:35.940 vitamin D.

00:45:37.440 Is that true

00:45:38.440 in the UK?

00:45:39.880 Do people in

00:45:40.440 the UK supplement

00:45:41.320 with vitamin D?

00:45:42.800 Don't think so.

00:45:44.120 France?

00:45:45.080 Nope.

00:45:46.220 Spain?

00:45:47.160 Don't think so.

00:45:48.720 So, here's what

00:45:50.180 I see.

00:45:51.360 I see that when

00:45:52.400 Janan Weiss was

00:45:53.760 trying to make

00:45:54.380 the case that

00:45:55.980 the masks and

00:45:57.360 lockdowns don't

00:45:58.200 help that much,

00:45:59.360 because Sweden is

00:46:00.960 doing well, that's

00:46:02.760 not the story I

00:46:03.660 saw.

00:46:04.540 I looked at his

00:46:05.360 own tweet thread

00:46:06.280 and said, um,

00:46:08.240 there's more

00:46:08.980 evidence in your

00:46:10.260 own tweet thread

00:46:11.120 that the vitamin

00:46:12.580 D levels are the

00:46:14.480 main thing.

00:46:16.640 Because if it's

00:46:17.560 true that it

00:46:18.100 doesn't matter if

00:46:18.780 you have a mask

00:46:19.460 or a lockdown

00:46:20.060 or not, you

00:46:21.800 get wildly

00:46:22.540 different results,

00:46:23.880 but that the

00:46:25.220 people who do

00:46:25.800 well all seem

00:46:26.720 to be the

00:46:27.420 vitamin D

00:46:28.220 supplement people,

00:46:29.820 is that a

00:46:30.640 coincidence?

00:46:31.980 Is that a

00:46:32.740 coincidence?

00:46:33.780 It could be.

00:46:34.680 So, the first

00:46:35.300 thing you should

00:46:35.820 say to yourself

00:46:36.420 is, yes, Scott,

00:46:37.960 that could be a

00:46:38.680 coincidence.

00:46:39.900 It totally could

00:46:40.980 be a coincidence.

00:46:42.460 But, what I'm

00:46:44.020 saying is that

00:46:44.700 all of the

00:46:45.300 other correlations

00:46:47.360 or causations

00:46:48.380 that you imagine

00:46:49.260 you see, don't

00:46:50.860 believe them.

00:46:51.680 They're just not

00:46:52.440 credible.

00:46:53.320 Is the vitamin

00:46:54.080 D correlation

00:46:54.920 credible?

00:46:56.020 No.

00:46:57.380 No.

00:46:58.320 Not based on

00:46:59.160 the little bit

00:46:59.760 of data that

00:47:00.360 I just

00:47:00.720 mentioned, it's

00:47:01.460 not credible

00:47:02.020 at all.

00:47:03.300 But, it's

00:47:05.320 not less

00:47:05.880 credible than

00:47:07.600 the idea that

00:47:08.280 masks and

00:47:09.200 lockdowns don't

00:47:10.860 work and that

00:47:12.060 Sweden is telling

00:47:12.860 you that.

00:47:14.320 All right.

00:47:15.420 How many of

00:47:16.280 our stories

00:47:16.820 today, stories

00:47:19.300 in the news,

00:47:20.020 are based on

00:47:20.720 just lies?

00:47:22.740 All right.

00:47:23.120 Let's go

00:47:23.700 through them.

00:47:24.800 So, we've got

00:47:25.480 the coronavirus

00:47:26.420 situation, which,

00:47:28.580 yeah, that's

00:47:29.340 been filled

00:47:30.460 with lies.

00:47:31.460 We've got the

00:47:32.440 Russia collusion

00:47:34.240 thing and who's

00:47:35.600 behind it.

00:47:36.480 That's filled

00:47:37.380 with lies.

00:47:38.120 It's all about

00:47:38.640 lies.

00:47:39.660 We've got the

00:47:40.460 stimulus deal

00:47:41.220 being off, but

00:47:42.720 the stimulus deal

00:47:43.500 was never really

00:47:44.320 being negotiated.

00:47:45.640 It was a lie

00:47:46.720 that it was ever

00:47:47.780 being negotiated

00:47:48.560 because it wasn't.

00:47:49.900 So, that's just

00:47:50.520 a lie.

00:47:53.160 Let's see, what

00:47:54.100 else, Facebook

00:47:56.840 is banning QAnon

00:47:58.140 because those

00:47:59.000 are lies.

00:48:00.840 The Pulitzer

00:48:01.640 Prize might get

00:48:03.660 revoked, or at

00:48:04.420 least some scholars

00:48:05.440 are asking for

00:48:06.100 it, because the

00:48:08.480 document that got

00:48:10.280 the Pulitzer Prize

00:48:11.260 had a big lie in

00:48:13.000 it.

00:48:14.540 Do you see a

00:48:15.380 pattern yet?

00:48:15.920 The pattern is

00:48:18.260 pretty clear.

00:48:20.300 All of our

00:48:21.020 biggest problems

00:48:21.840 are based on the

00:48:24.120 fact that we

00:48:24.600 don't have a

00:48:25.080 credible news

00:48:26.720 media anymore.

00:48:28.420 As soon as your

00:48:29.320 news source becomes

00:48:30.700 completely non-credible,

00:48:32.840 then all of your

00:48:34.080 news becomes

00:48:34.700 bullshit.

00:48:35.800 It's just all

00:48:36.340 bullshit.

00:48:37.340 Every one of our

00:48:38.340 problems is

00:48:39.920 bullshit.

00:48:41.260 But the problem

00:48:41.920 is real, but what

00:48:43.300 people are saying

00:48:44.120 about it is just

00:48:44.940 not true.

00:48:53.640 Somebody says

00:48:54.320 that I'm

00:48:54.880 conflicted about

00:48:55.800 Kamala because 0.90

00:48:56.620 she's my

00:48:57.200 creation.

00:48:58.820 See, you get

00:48:59.480 blocked for saying

00:49:00.260 stuff like that

00:49:01.080 because that's a

00:49:02.480 mind-reading

00:49:03.560 thing.

00:49:05.300 So, hold on

00:49:05.960 a second.

00:49:07.460 I have to move

00:49:08.000 something in order

00:49:08.660 to block you.

00:49:10.260 Nah, it's not

00:49:11.140 worth it.

00:49:12.060 I'll block you

00:49:12.580 next time.

00:49:14.120 I'll get you

00:49:14.500 next time.

00:49:15.980 So, if that

00:49:17.900 confuses you, the

00:49:19.160 blocking is when

00:49:21.140 you ascribe opinions

00:49:24.480 to me that are

00:49:25.360 inaccurate.

00:49:26.320 You can ask me my

00:49:27.640 opinion and you

00:49:29.000 can certainly

00:49:29.520 criticize my

00:49:30.520 actual opinion.

00:49:31.840 But when you

00:49:32.460 assign an opinion

00:49:33.360 to me that I do

00:49:34.320 not hold and

00:49:35.680 then criticize it,

00:49:37.440 you get blocked.

00:49:38.160 Pence is

00:49:43.320 somebody saying

00:49:43.820 Pence is more

00:49:44.460 disciplined than

00:49:45.220 Trump.

00:49:45.800 I think that's

00:49:46.360 true.

00:49:47.020 That's true.

00:49:48.840 He's more

00:49:49.400 disciplined, less

00:49:50.460 interesting.

00:49:52.500 All right.

00:49:53.420 That is all I have

00:49:54.440 for now.

00:49:55.800 And I will talk

00:49:56.640 to you

00:49:57.100 Periscopers 0.99

00:49:58.260 tomorrow.

00:50:00.320 and you

00:50:03.160 YouTubers 0.97

00:50:03.640 still with

00:50:05.020 you.

00:50:05.240 You can look

00:50:05.900 at your

00:50:06.300 comments here

00:50:07.280 as we

00:50:07.760 close up.

00:50:09.180 Is anybody

00:50:14.980 enjoying the

00:50:16.220 YouTube experience

00:50:17.460 better?

00:50:18.220 So, you might

00:50:18.780 have noticed I

00:50:19.360 took out my

00:50:20.320 AirPods that I

00:50:23.460 was using for a

00:50:24.180 microphone.

00:50:25.700 And I'm not

00:50:26.180 seeing anybody

00:50:27.000 Oh, somebody's

00:50:29.560 saying the sound

00:50:30.140 is echoing.

00:50:30.780 Okay, that's

00:50:31.180 what I was

00:50:31.480 going to ask.

00:50:32.360 So, you should

00:50:33.020 hear a little

00:50:33.500 echo.

00:50:34.160 Let me give you

00:50:34.720 a little update

00:50:35.360 on the sound

00:50:36.040 because so many

00:50:36.760 of you have

00:50:37.220 asked for it.

00:50:38.300 Now, people

00:50:38.940 have said to

00:50:39.360 me, Scott,

00:50:39.960 you should

00:50:40.260 upgrade your

00:50:40.820 sound system.

00:50:42.500 Yes.

00:50:43.640 Yes, I

00:50:44.120 should.

00:50:45.020 I've got

00:50:45.620 every kind

00:50:47.280 of sound

00:50:48.300 device you

00:50:49.660 could possibly

00:50:50.260 think of.

00:50:50.860 I've got a

00:50:51.140 whole rack of

00:50:52.080 high-end

00:50:52.440 sound equipment.

00:50:54.000 I've got

00:50:54.620 this.

00:50:56.820 I've got

00:50:57.560 this.

00:51:00.640 And all

00:51:01.080 this.

00:51:01.980 And here's

00:51:02.440 what I've

00:51:02.760 learned because

00:51:03.320 I've experimented

00:51:04.220 with all of

00:51:04.860 this stuff.

00:51:05.580 If you do

00:51:06.300 the super

00:51:06.820 high-end

00:51:07.300 stuff like

00:51:08.380 the Shure

00:51:09.000 microphone

00:51:09.620 and the

00:51:10.660 sound boards,

00:51:11.580 et cetera,

00:51:12.100 you can make

00:51:12.940 that work,

00:51:13.760 but only if

00:51:14.720 you have a

00:51:15.400 soundproof room

00:51:16.400 because this

00:51:17.320 kind of

00:51:17.620 microphone will

00:51:18.260 pick up too

00:51:18.800 much room

00:51:19.360 noise and

00:51:20.520 you get way

00:51:21.320 too much.

00:51:22.540 The preferred

00:51:23.840 method, which

00:51:25.900 I just bought,

00:51:27.080 I bought another

00:51:28.340 lavalier to use

00:51:29.320 that.

00:51:29.940 The lavalier,

00:51:30.800 when it clips

00:51:31.260 on, doesn't

00:51:31.960 give you the

00:51:32.440 full richness

00:51:33.140 of the high-end

00:51:35.300 sound system

00:51:36.040 with a soundproof

00:51:36.920 room, but you

00:51:38.120 can use this

00:51:38.800 in a non-sound

00:51:39.940 proof room

00:51:40.680 without the

00:51:41.600 echo.

00:51:42.420 So on

00:51:42.840 Periscope, the

00:51:43.520 sound is pretty

00:51:44.180 good.

00:51:44.680 It's not as

00:51:45.220 good as the

00:51:45.780 best it could

00:51:46.700 be, but it's

00:51:47.260 fine.

00:51:48.240 And I had to

00:51:50.220 order a second

00:51:51.020 one of these

00:51:51.840 so that I could

00:51:52.980 use it with

00:51:53.640 YouTube.

00:51:54.140 So here's the

00:51:54.940 bottom line.

00:51:55.440 The sound will

00:51:56.220 be different in

00:51:56.920 a few days on

00:51:57.660 YouTube without

00:51:58.820 the echo.

00:52:01.020 And I think

00:52:02.220 that will be the

00:52:02.840 best it could be.

00:52:03.480 I have tried

00:52:04.600 for four years

00:52:06.620 every possible

00:52:08.180 sound and

00:52:09.500 video combination

00:52:10.580 and this is

00:52:11.840 what I've

00:52:12.220 learned.

00:52:13.020 You can't

00:52:13.940 beat the

00:52:14.640 video from

00:52:15.720 an iPhone or

00:52:16.740 an iPad.

00:52:17.740 So this is

00:52:18.200 just my iPhone

00:52:19.060 that you're

00:52:19.560 watching right

00:52:20.400 now.

00:52:21.180 It's the best

00:52:22.280 video.

00:52:23.220 If you get

00:52:23.960 any kind of

00:52:24.460 high-end camera,

00:52:25.780 you can get a

00:52:26.840 better video,

00:52:27.800 but the complexity

00:52:29.020 of a high-end

00:52:30.080 camera, because

00:52:31.000 you have to run

00:52:31.520 it through other

00:52:32.060 equipment and

00:52:32.780 other software,

00:52:33.740 it basically

00:52:34.700 makes it

00:52:35.200 completely

00:52:35.620 unusable.

00:52:36.780 Because you

00:52:37.300 can get it

00:52:37.780 to work, but

00:52:38.940 the very second

00:52:39.740 time you want

00:52:40.420 it to work,

00:52:41.920 some software

00:52:42.720 will need

00:52:43.140 updating,

00:52:43.940 something went

00:52:44.480 off, something

00:52:45.560 timed down.

00:52:46.360 It just never

00:52:46.940 works twice.

00:52:48.580 So the

00:52:49.680 iPhone or the

00:52:50.260 iPad is the

00:52:51.220 number one way

00:52:52.200 to get a

00:52:53.000 clean video

00:52:54.420 that works

00:52:54.820 every time.

00:52:55.520 But to get

00:52:55.920 the sound,

00:52:57.380 like I said,

00:52:58.220 I've purchased

00:52:59.160 expensive sound

00:53:01.040 boards,

00:53:01.560 such as

00:53:03.300 this one,

00:53:05.060 such as

00:53:06.560 this thing,

00:53:07.640 and I've

00:53:09.080 learned to

00:53:09.420 use it,

00:53:09.980 I've hooked

00:53:10.320 it all up,

00:53:11.440 I've soundproofed

00:53:13.420 a room,

00:53:14.240 a different room

00:53:15.000 in the house.

00:53:15.820 I've tried

00:53:16.520 every combination

00:53:17.700 of microphones,

00:53:19.520 and the best

00:53:20.200 kind, I'm

00:53:21.240 buying some

00:53:22.200 pretty high-end

00:53:22.760 stuff, and

00:53:24.360 nothing works

00:53:25.160 as well as

00:53:26.740 a $20

00:53:28.340 plug-in

00:53:29.780 lavalier

00:53:30.580 microphone

00:53:31.120 on an

00:53:32.200 iPad.

00:53:33.160 Nothing comes

00:53:33.720 close.

00:53:35.040 Now, I

00:53:35.880 could come

00:53:36.480 close if I

00:53:37.800 had a full-time

00:53:38.500 engineer and

00:53:40.480 a room that

00:53:42.300 was designed

00:53:42.900 for sound,

00:53:44.140 and then this

00:53:44.840 high-end

00:53:45.180 equipment, and

00:53:45.860 then the

00:53:46.120 engineer

00:53:46.480 troubleshooting

00:53:47.240 it every day,

00:53:48.000 because you

00:53:48.360 have to

00:53:48.620 troubleshoot it

00:53:49.240 every time

00:53:49.640 you use it.

00:53:50.100 Alright, so I

00:53:53.440 just thought I'd

00:53:53.880 give you that

00:53:54.440 update, and I

00:53:55.840 will talk to

00:53:56.280 you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 07, 2020

Episode 1147 Scott Adams： I Tell You How Fear Persuasion and Fake News Will Determine the Election

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