Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1151 Scott Adams： Why the Trump Slaughtermeter Just Got Pinned at 100%. Swiss Coronavirus Mystery. Who Reversal

00:00:00.000 hey everybody come on in it's time it's time for coffee with Scott Adams best part of the day

00:00:18.420 every single time and what do you need to enjoy coffee with Scott Adams well as the name implies

00:00:26.040 coffee or a beverage of your choice but you've got to put it in something you don't want to drink it

00:00:31.900 with your hands that's bad form instead you need a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or

00:00:37.900 stein a canteen jug or flask of a vessel of any kind see them on my back shelf there that's your

00:00:42.560 visual cue and join me now for the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better

00:00:50.300 it's called the simultaneous sip and it's gonna happen right now go

00:00:57.720 I dare say that was siptastic yeah it was oh we got a lot of fun stuff to talk about today

00:01:10.880 I'd like to start by telling you about my dream oh no don't turn it off yet I know there's nothing

00:01:18.700 more boring than hearing about somebody's dream but watch how cleverly I fold this into my story

00:01:25.840 hold on when I was a kid I had a recurring dream in which I could fly I could actually just float and

00:01:35.340 levitate and fly and I would have this dream maybe once a year and it was my favorite dream but there

00:01:43.800 was one catch even though the dream itself was spectacular because as I said I could fly

00:01:51.380 imagine a vivid dream where you can just float around the house and you could be up at the ceiling

00:01:56.940 and you could go outside and you could float over the town it was great there was only one problem with

00:02:05.880 it and it was this for whatever reason my dream always included the following element other people

00:02:14.880 were not impressed it was always in the dream I'd be floating literally at the ceiling and I'd say to

00:02:22.740 the people below me say hey do you see this I'm literally flying and people would look up and then they

00:02:30.560 just continue their conversations and I'd say no I don't think you understand I am above the ground

00:02:36.620 defying gravity literally the first human being who has ever flown and I'm doing it right in front of

00:02:43.820 you and nobody cared and they would just go about their business and I would keep saying are you serious

00:02:50.220 I'm flying I'm flying look at me why can't you see me every year once a year and so I was

00:03:00.560 reminded of that dream when I was reading a piece by Andrew McCarthy in which he says this that this

00:03:09.680 is just one part of what he said that is that Clinton Clinton meaning Hillary actually did what she

00:03:15.260 accused Trump of doing she colluded with Russians through through yet another foreigner she recruited to

00:03:21.740 meddle in the 2016 presidential campaign the ludicrous former British by Christopher Steele in order to

00:03:29.500 damage Trump's campaign and cinch the election for herself now I believe that that is so well

00:03:36.480 documented by the handwritten notes etc coming out of the uh out of the disclosures that this is just a

00:03:45.420 fact right and I feel like Andrew McCarthy is having my flying dream right now he he's he's saying

00:03:53.220 okay people it's the biggest story of all time the whole Russia collusion thing was literally opposite

00:04:01.400 it was actually an example of Hillary Clinton colluding with Russians to overthrow the legally 1.00

00:04:08.800 elected government of the United States so how about that and all the people on earth say yeah

00:04:16.460 uh-huh checking my stocks how's the weather today and then Andrew McCarthy says um okay I don't think

00:04:24.940 you heard me because your reaction is not really matching what I just said so let me let me say it again

00:04:30.420 more clearly we have now proof no doubt about it proof that Hillary Clinton colluded with Russians to

00:04:39.420 overthrow the legally elected government of the United States anything does anybody care seriously

00:04:48.220 you're just going to ignore this

00:04:50.080 I don't know what to say about it it is so mind-bogglingly

00:04:56.860 it's exactly like my flying dream why can't people pay attention to this

00:05:04.100 why does it seem like it's happening and not happening at the same time why is it the biggest

00:05:11.900 story of all time that's not being reported on at least the mainstream media it's mind-boggling

00:05:20.920 anyway moving on um I've told you about something I call the Adams law of slow-moving disasters

00:05:30.000 and it goes like this when humanity can see a huge problem coming from a long ways away

00:05:37.620 we have a hundred percent track record of handling it for example we could see far in advance that it

00:05:45.760 would be hard to feed all the people if the population kept growing but we figured out how to

00:05:51.280 make more food and and you know we we did a pretty good job of it we thought we would run out of oil

00:05:57.680 but we figured out how to frack and how to find more oil and build solar panels etc so

00:06:03.700 looks like we'll get through it likewise with climate change looks like it's the end of the

00:06:08.960 world if the scientists the consensus of them are right but I'm pretty confident that we'll figure

00:06:15.600 out workarounds and we'll be fine but as the time that you have to fix a problem gets compressed

00:06:22.980 the shorter and shorter you have well then it gets a little more uncertain the more time you have the

00:06:29.240 more likely you'll figure it out but what about voting this year the question is whether the voting

00:06:37.480 mechanisms will be secure will it be will the mail-in voting give us a credible result or a non-credible

00:06:46.660 result will there be so many problems that we can't fix it well we're seeing already a whole bunch of

00:06:52.760 misprinted ballots that we're scrambling to to fix you see states moving their deadlines for when you

00:07:00.840 could have a postmark on your mail-in ballot so you're seeing people scrambling to adjust and they

00:07:07.060 you could argue that they might have started a few months ago and they've got a few more weeks and

00:07:12.880 they're working they're probably working you know around the clock trying to fix problems and monitor

00:07:18.240 for problems and everything it's going to be close it's going to be close on one hand I always bet on

00:07:25.420 humans if there's enough time on the other hand if there's not enough time I bet against humans every

00:07:33.240 time because humans are not good at doing complicated things correctly the first try it's almost not a thing

00:07:42.120 in fact when it happens it becomes the stuff of legends for example the first time we actually

00:07:48.560 launched a rocket with the attempt of putting somebody on the moon it worked that's one of the

00:07:56.100 reasons it's such a big deal because it was a really big chance but it worked so that's the one we talk

00:08:02.480 about more than anything else so if I had to guess um let me put this positive filter on it I think the

00:08:13.500 voting will be better than it should have been in other words I think that humanity is really going to

00:08:20.560 try to rise to this challenge because the stakes are so high and we do have some time it's not like a

00:08:27.340 hurricane you know where you have maybe a few days we had weeks there should have been enough time to

00:08:33.460 print things reprint things check things scrub databases as much as possible so we might be in a

00:08:40.220 little better shape than we thought um so that's my positivity on there so yesterday I shared with you my

00:08:49.020 conspiracy theory that you shouldn't take too seriously that Kim Jong-un um shows up on video

00:08:55.860 not talking and then separately you hear the audio of him talking but you don't see him talking on video

00:09:03.380 which at least opens up the possibility that you're looking at a body double on video and somebody who

00:09:09.920 can do a good impression on audio so CNN ran another piece on Kim Jong-un's big celebration thing in which

00:09:19.160 he showed up in public and uh it teased that it was going to show Kim Jong-un being emotional during

00:09:26.720 his speech so I said to myself ah I guess that conspiracy theory fell apart because CNN is going

00:09:34.160 to show me a clip of Kim Jong-un giving his speech it does look like it's something current and he'll be

00:09:41.860 emotional while he's talking and then I will see him physically the video and I'll hear him talking at the

00:09:48.220 same time and then there's no doubt about it all right if you see the emotion and you see him

00:09:54.500 talking he's he's alive he's well and then they show the clip and they show Kim Jong-un in front of

00:10:01.780 the microphone and he's he's got some tears he's emotional and then I'm waiting for him to talk

00:10:07.940 and they cut away they don't show him talking I don't know if that video exists probably it exists

00:10:18.000 because I don't believe my own conspiracy theory but it's getting increasingly interesting

00:10:24.440 that the thing you'd most expect a video of him talking currently the only thing that I would find

00:10:32.820 completely credible doesn't yet exist so that's why it's a conspiracy theory don't take it too

00:10:40.200 seriously um Andres uh backhouse who keeps me honest on all things data uh when you when you're on

00:10:50.220 twitter all day um when you depend on uh when you're on twitter all day you see a lot of bad data

00:10:58.020 and Andres often comes into the comments and clears up my misconceptions so uh he did that a couple of

00:11:06.480 times today one of the times was he pointed out there's a paper that estimates the trade war costs

00:11:12.720 for china were far greater than for the united states so they do the math they figured out that china 0.91

00:11:19.580 probably cost them 35 billion which would be uh about 0.3 of their gdp whereas the u.s probably cost us 0.96

00:11:28.960 uh a little under 16 billion half as much but we also have a bigger economy so it was only 0.08

00:11:38.220 percent of our gdp and apparently vietnam was the big beneficiary their gdp went up so

00:11:45.460 um it's starting to look like trump's instinct on the trade war was correct in the sense that it would

00:11:55.420 cost china more than it would cost us so if somebody was going to blink it would probably be

00:12:02.240 them uh you know all things being equal now of course they would put pressure on our farmers

00:12:08.780 so it's not exactly apples to apples you know because they could put a little political pressure

00:12:14.320 on us in a way that we can't put political pressure on them because of the differences in

00:12:18.520 the systems but it still suggests that trump's instincts were in the right direction

00:12:23.480 that china would have more to lose and if you go into a uh debate or let's say into a trade war

00:12:31.600 with somebody who definitely has more to lose than you do it's a strong position doesn't mean you'll

00:12:37.720 come out ahead doesn't mean you'll win doesn't mean it comes out good in the end but it certainly

00:12:43.280 makes it look smart makes it look like a good play um all right so let's get to the meat of this

00:12:50.820 i have placed the trump slaughter meter at 100 it has been as low as 50 even last week when trump

00:13:00.880 was was still sick with coronavirus and was doing some things that were getting him a lot of negative

00:13:07.100 attention uh like driving around you know and uh putting at risk his uh drivers the critics say

00:13:15.820 and he did put them at risk i just think it was such a small risk it wasn't terribly important

00:13:21.160 but it's at 100 now i remind you for those who are not familiar with the slaughter meter the

00:13:29.660 slaughter meter is not a prediction all right it's not the slaughter meter just tells you how the day

00:13:36.440 is going or how the week is going it's a snapshot in time that says artificially and remember this is

00:13:43.400 very artificial that if everything kept going the way things went this week you would expect you know

00:13:50.400 this outcome so if everything went the way things are going today trump would win easily and let me

00:13:58.200 give you an idea of what's happening today because the news cycle is just crazy isn't it how quickly you

00:14:04.880 can be whiplashed from from oh he's definitely gonna lose to oh he's definitely gonna win oh he's

00:14:09.980 definitely gonna lose it's like whiplash so the the slaughter meter could change again you know 20 times

00:14:15.540 before election but as of today it's pinned at 100 and here's why number one uh well let me give you

00:14:23.780 some context trump doesn't need to convince you that he did a great job in all elements of the

00:14:32.480 coronavirus he doesn't need to make that case now you think he would because that's the biggest

00:14:38.840 uh complaint against him it's the one that seems to stick so all of the experts seem to agree

00:14:45.660 democrats and republicans that where trump is most vulnerable to criticism is the coronavirus because

00:14:52.680 the u.s numbers don't look good compared to other countries so that's gigantic gigantic weakness because

00:15:00.520 it's the thing in our minds it's the thing that most scares us it affects the economy it affects

00:15:07.000 everything he's got to get the coronavirus right or else he can't get re-elected right wouldn't you say

00:15:14.180 that would just be obvious he's got to get it right it's the most important thing or does he

00:15:21.560 this is what i would like to add to the thinking on this not true he does not need to convince you

00:15:30.020 that the most important thing happening right now he got right there's another way to do it

00:15:36.840 he has to convince you that it isn't that scary because if you're convinced that the coronavirus went

00:15:44.560 from a 10 and a 10 in scariness let's say in march and he's reduced it to a five maybe if trump can get

00:15:55.520 your fear level from a 10 and a 10 down to a five it's not going to matter that much how it was handled

00:16:03.440 because its importance will be less in your mind so here's what happened this week that will have the

00:16:11.340 the irrational effect of making you less scared number one trump is 73 or 4 got the coronavirus

00:16:21.520 he's got a comorbidity went into the hospital and as of today just what a week later or whatever

00:16:28.180 he looks great he looks great now should anybody take from one anecdote about one person who had

00:16:37.100 the best medical care in the world and was discovered early with the testing and had a good outcome

00:16:42.880 should you extend that one single person and of seven billion would it be logical or rational to say

00:16:51.720 oh well i guess it's safe because of what happened with that one person that one time no that would be

00:16:58.180 completely irrational and you're going to do it anyway you can't help it we are story driven creatures

00:17:07.480 you could give me all the data in the world big mountain of data over here and that one story about

00:17:14.340 trump gets the coronavirus and he's he's 100 a week later those are not equal that one story about

00:17:23.020 trump recovering is bigger than your whole mountain of data because it's visual we see it we feel it

00:17:31.860 we talk about it it comes it becomes number one in our heads it just gives us it just takes us in an

00:17:38.480 irrational place which helps trump so that's number one trump fully recovered becomes its own little story

00:17:45.420 with power and he knows that by the way he's playing it because he knows how powerful that is

00:17:52.220 here's the other thing that's coming it's not quite here yet but i would say it's right on the border of

00:18:00.840 being here and it's this there were 34 people who were allegedly uh infected who had some white house

00:18:08.820 connection 34 people that's terrible right that's really bad for trump right because it would show

00:18:17.740 that he mismanaged the protection element of it and got 34 people infected so that's day one story

00:18:25.420 but what's the story next week chris christie is already out of the hospital looks like he'll be

00:18:32.820 fine weren't you worried about him i mean honestly if you're being honest you know you heard that chris

00:18:40.000 christie got coronavirus and you said to yourself oh that's not good because comorbidity city right he's

00:18:48.080 got i think two comorbidities he's got asthma he's got a weight issue he's not as young as he could be

00:18:55.380 i don't know how old he is but he's not quite into the danger zone but he's not a spring chicken

00:18:59.660 so he's out of the hospital looks like he'll be fine what happens what happens if and i think this is

00:19:08.780 the most likely scenario what happens if all 34 people are fine in a week

00:19:15.480 doesn't look as dangerous does it now would that tell you anything what could you look at 34 people

00:19:24.200 who again were tested early founder found their symptoms early got the best treatment in the world

00:19:30.860 probably can you make any you know logical inference from 34 people no you can't they're all special

00:19:39.400 cases but that's not how your brain works your brain is going to say okay now i see this pattern

00:19:47.060 feels like everybody who gets it including chris christie including president trump with his

00:19:52.940 comorbidities it feels like everybody's getting better maybe this trump cure

00:20:00.340 huh this regeneron and maybe with the remdesivir depending on where you are in the infection

00:20:06.600 arc huh it's sounding a little bit more like a cure isn't it now is that logical nope nope there is no

00:20:18.420 logic to what i just said because the the uh the death rate of the virus is known to be less than one

00:20:26.640 percent and if you took 34 people with great health care who got you know detected early there's a

00:20:34.160 really really high chance they'll all be fine and it wouldn't mean anything beyond what you already knew

00:20:40.680 it would just be more of the same but because we're going to look at it because we're focused on it

00:20:46.600 because there'll be famous people senators uh you know the the white house spocks all of these people

00:20:54.420 are people you know they're familiar faces the weight of those 34 people getting better and let's hope

00:21:01.480 they do right you know nobody's out of the woods completely yet but it's going to start looking like

00:21:07.680 that really soon starting to look like they're all out of the woods because if any of them had turned

00:21:13.840 bad if anybody else had been hospitalized well you'd know it by now you'd know it by now

00:21:20.420 but there's i'm saving the best one for last all right so before i get to the best one last the

00:21:29.840 economy is improving right so your economy is getting better uh and we have these anecdotal

00:21:36.760 stories of people who seem to go through the coronavirus fine and there's a story for why it's

00:21:42.680 better now than it used to be and president trump has provided the story the story is that these new

00:21:49.180 therapeutics are the bomb they're just really good so you've got a reason and you've got a story

00:21:56.140 way more powerful than data way more powerful not even in the same universe data very very unimportant

00:22:05.600 if you haven't noticed it should be the most important but it's not story very important and the

00:22:14.240 story is all trump right now you didn't see that coming did you so the economy is approving uh which

00:22:20.760 you would expect because it's coming off a low base right it shouldn't be any big surprise that an

00:22:27.680 economy coming off a low point would have big percentage gains so i i think somebody said that on

00:22:33.920 october 29th just a few days before election we're going to see gdp results that show that the gdp had

00:22:41.840 a record increase in other words a world record for the united states increase quarter over quarter

00:22:50.140 i think i think it's going to look like that it might not but it'll be a good increase either way

00:22:55.060 now why should you make from that oh my god trump is a genius because we made a record for recovery

00:23:01.900 no no it would not be logical in any way to attribute that to leadership per se because

00:23:11.260 we're coming off a low base and anybody who had been president would have experienced probably a

00:23:17.680 record gain because what's weird about this uh this disaster it's not like a war where you have to

00:23:23.620 rebuild a factory before you can get your gdp up you just have to turn on the lights and say all right

00:23:29.740 back to work turn on the lights everybody who used to be working here you're all you're all trained

00:23:34.580 just come back and do what you were doing last last you know spring so the economy will of course

00:23:41.900 look good it won't mean what people think it means but they will process it as though it's a trump

00:23:47.880 success right so irrationally it all works in his favor still save the best part for last are you ready

00:23:55.680 this will make this whole periscope worthwhile so as of today the world health organization

00:24:02.840 who announced that it does not favor lockdowns as a as a way of combating coronavirus

00:24:10.620 did you know that yet yeah the world health organization experts if you will indeed probably

00:24:21.060 the experts in this very thing have come out publicly said they do not favor lockdowns of the

00:24:29.300 economy and the reason given reason given it's bad for poor people

00:24:36.320 bad for black people bad for brown people bad for anybody who's in the bad economic situation

00:24:46.760 and here's what's fun about this you might say to yourself well scott but the world health

00:24:54.340 organization has some credibility problems that's why we pulled out they were you know first said masks

00:25:00.140 are bad then they said they're good they said that the not to worry too much about the virus but then it

00:25:06.700 turns out we should worry so it does seem as though the world health organization is not that credible but

00:25:13.840 it gets better it gets better let's say you're a democrat and you hear this news the world health

00:25:23.440 organization says that well they don't use these words but they say in effect that trump was right

00:25:30.960 when he contradicted the experts and said let's open up the economy that's right one of the biggest

00:25:40.160 expert groups and according to democrats very credible the world health organization has just

00:25:47.740 sided with trump who had opposed most of the experts or a lot of the experts on that there were there

00:25:55.200 was a very growing sizable minority of experts who were saying the same thing the world health

00:26:00.580 organization said which is ah you might be hurting people more than helping with these lockdowns

00:26:05.800 so if you're a democrat and your big thing about trump is that he doesn't follow the science

00:26:12.820 what do you do now what do you do now

00:26:16.520 those of us who like president trump one of the things you like about him the best

00:26:24.180 is that he doesn't follow the science because the science is often bullshit

00:26:30.480 right you knew that you knew that you knew that the science is often not always and certainly we

00:26:39.820 should pay attention to science certainly we should give it the the greatest of weight

00:26:45.160 but it's often bullshit that's just a fact and you need a leader who is willing to say um

00:26:53.220 okay i hear what you're saying but i still think it's bullshit and here's why that's what trump did

00:27:02.300 from the very beginning when everybody else was saying uh hey idiot orange man lock down it's the only 0.87

00:27:10.720 way we can defeat this thing you gotta lock down why are you being such a moron why don't you listen 0.88

00:27:17.520 to the experts why don't you listen to science uh-oh science just agreed with him maybe not all of

00:27:26.420 science but the world health organization not exactly president trump's friend right is there anybody who

00:27:34.520 dislikes president trump more than the world health organization probably not this month

00:27:39.880 they might they might be the winners so uh somebody says i'm glad you're finally in about the experts

00:27:50.200 i don't think you know my history if you're saying that comment i have never been the one who backed

00:27:57.100 the experts uncritically i i would be closer to the opposite i'm very much closer to the person who said

00:28:04.900 there's a reason the experts are wrong here are all the reasons i'm the dilbert guy

00:28:09.540 you you don't write the dilbert cartoon and believe experts are right you're just automatically

00:28:15.060 i think that they i think experts are moving fast in the direction of being right that's what science

00:28:22.460 does science starts out not knowing the answer takes a lot of guesses that sometimes don't work out

00:28:28.660 but it's moving toward truth it's eliminating things that they used to think are true and you know

00:28:34.780 narrowing it down getting toward truth the problem with the experts in science in general

00:28:39.300 is that you can't tell where you are in the path you don't know if you're 25 of the way to truth

00:28:45.260 50 or 100 because it looks the same you just don't know when you're done because you think you think

00:28:52.780 you're done and oh there's a new new discovery i'm not done so if you add these things together

00:28:59.120 trump recovering himself anecdotal but it still is powerful 34 people recovering probably we hope

00:29:07.100 good you know fingers crossed um again just anecdotal doesn't mean anything scientifically

00:29:13.640 but it'll matter it'll matter to how afraid you are and then the world health organization

00:29:20.800 completely eviscerating the argument that trump doesn't follow science it's the biggest argument

00:29:29.380 coming out of the biden campaign that's not the crazy racism one and it just got eviscerated

00:29:35.480 because now the democrats have two choices they can either oppose science by opposing the world

00:29:44.960 health organization do you see where how awesome this is the democrats will have to oppose experts

00:29:52.160 and oppose science to maintain their current view that trump is wrong they can't have it both ways

00:29:59.940 anymore they can't say trump is wrong and science is good and and accurate and you should follow it

00:30:08.500 it's gone it's their biggest argument it just evaporated now does that mean that the world health

00:30:15.160 organization is right i don't know how the hell would i know right i i have a preference you know if you

00:30:23.920 make me the leader i'll give you a choice i'll give you a confident sounding choice of what i think we

00:30:30.860 should do but i don't know you know that's part of being a leader you just got to take your best shot

00:30:37.220 sometimes so uh this is one of the strongest days that the president has had by far i don't know if the

00:30:46.600 rest of the media will recognize this because it's the sort of thing that's just happening in people's

00:30:51.860 impressions so going back to my original point the president does not need to convince you

00:30:58.440 that he got everything right in managing the coronavirus he needs to make you less afraid of it

00:31:05.580 so it just goes down in your priorities the world health organization just did that for him

00:31:12.760 they they just completed it he what he couldn't have gotten there i don't think he couldn't have gotten

00:31:19.760 there without their help because people were still going to say yeah but the experts oh but what about

00:31:25.260 the experts oh yeah i hear what you're saying but what about the experts not anymore now the experts are

00:31:33.640 clearly on different sides and what do you do when the experts disagree what is the right thing for a

00:31:40.760 leader to do when experts disagree the leader makes the choice and the leader if it's a good leader

00:31:49.280 will make a choice based on the most basic concepts in other words he won't make the

00:31:56.440 we won't make a choice or she the leader will not make a choice based on um the science as in well i

00:32:04.940 back this scientist and i believe this data and i don't believe that data that would be bad leadership

00:32:09.880 because if the scientists can't agree it would be absurd for the leader to say uh i'm going to look

00:32:16.500 into the science myself and now i've read all the science and i pick this one bad leadership

00:32:22.560 a good leader says we can't know that's what we know what we know is we don't know so what do you do

00:32:31.560 if you don't know how do you manage your risk if you don't know and i think that the president

00:32:37.760 has found exactly the right sweet spot here he's the the thing that you can default to

00:32:44.720 is freedom because the one thing we know is that if we were to lose our freedom to anything

00:32:52.680 screw it we're out of here right we'd all just close the planet and starve to death if we lose our

00:33:01.420 freedom we don't even want to be here if you say to me i can give you your freedom back but there's a

00:33:08.880 one percent chance that you'll die i'm in i'll take my freedom i'll give you your freedom back but

00:33:16.760 there's a one percent chance your grandmother might die a few years early i'm in sorry grandma i'm going

00:33:24.960 to talk to grandma first but you know what she agrees grandma doesn't disagree grandma wants me 0.99

00:33:31.520 to be free grandma wants to be free will she take the the higher risk that she'll die yes she will

00:33:39.700 if she doesn't i'll do everything i can to keep grandma safe but if you don't know what's the right

00:33:47.280 thing to do you have to default to the primary primary human needs and we have a primary human need for

00:33:56.420 freedom and that affects of course the economy which keeps poor people alive which keeps us happy

00:34:04.900 which keeps us from killing ourselves all of these benefits so trump has done what trump always does

00:34:13.620 he he peered through this this impenetrable you know data science crap that wasn't quite as solid as it

00:34:24.980 ever needed to be we wanted it to be good but it never was he peered through it all and he found the

00:34:31.640 essential human part and the human part is this

00:34:36.920 day one coronavirus scares us day two the coronavirus attacks us attacks the united states

00:34:49.380 day three coronavirus seems to be winning even though our president said it wouldn't day four

00:34:57.040 coronavirus is kicking our fucking asses day five day six week two week three week four

00:35:05.620 coronavirus is ripping our civilization apart month three coronavirus has us by the neck week five

00:35:17.300 or month five coronavirus is just kicking our fucking asses month six fuck you coronavirus we're done 0.99

00:35:31.680 we got us some tools they're not complete tools they're not they're not enough to completely destroy the

00:35:38.540 coronavirus yet but we're going on offense we're not going to lose anymore we're not going to lose to the

00:35:46.040 virus we're not going to lose to china we're not going to lose anymore and your president has made it clear

00:35:54.040 that the losing part is behind us will people die yes yes they will will americans die in large numbers

00:36:03.600 that should and will alarm us yes are we going to back down because it's risky nope are we going to go

00:36:14.580 forward yes are we going to beat the coronavirus one way or another one way or another because we're done

00:36:24.960 we are just done losing can't lose forever we're done losing and the president has called the term and the

00:36:35.840 world health organization gave him an assist and um i think i think it could be over uh over in terms of

00:36:44.640 the election so biden coughed twice in public uh yesterday and he coughed the other day while he was

00:36:51.540 giving a talk now in all likelihood the coughing is nothing he might be on a medication for example there's

00:36:58.440 one um blood pressure medication that gives you a dry cough maybe he's on that who knows you know at that

00:37:04.660 age everybody is so probably his coughing is not coronavirus but it is 2020 and in 2020 um in 2020

00:37:16.620 nothing nothing is off the table as as schumer has said everything's on the table so will 2020 deliver

00:37:28.680 the most 2020 thing that could ever happen which is biden getting the coronavirus now keep in mind

00:37:36.980 that if biden gets the coronavirus and either one of these two things happens either he recovers fine

00:37:43.240 which would be the best news which would also make the virus look less scary um again not in a data way

00:37:51.580 but it would just make us feel that way um or he has a bad outcome and then of course

00:37:56.700 trump has a better victory but we don't want that outcome that would be the worst of all cases

00:38:02.300 but he's coughing and if you see the guy that you want to you know elect president one of them has

00:38:11.900 recovered completely the other one's older and you're not so sure that biden could could recover

00:38:18.800 and he's coughing there's no way that doesn't affect you now i've said i've said that president

00:38:26.360 trump should uh ask to debate kamala harris and i think that would be a good play even though she'd 0.99

00:38:32.760 say no it would it would uh tell you to think past biden which i think would be good for the for john

00:38:39.400 all right um here's a really interesting fact set of facts coming out of switzerland

00:38:46.760 you know i've been telling you that there's something deeply unexplained about the coronavirus

00:38:51.800 numbers in terms of why is the united states have such big numbers compared to other places

00:38:57.960 it doesn't seem to be completely explained by leadership it doesn't seem to be completely

00:39:06.340 explained by you know we have higher obesity we have a higher black population and they get hit harder

00:39:12.900 if you put all of that in the mix it doesn't seem to explain the extraordinary difference

00:39:18.640 but then i heard this about switzerland this came from jasha mauck on twitter and if you look at

00:39:28.740 switzerland what's interesting about it is that it has three sections as a german speaking section

00:39:34.940 french speaking and and belgian i guess flemish speaking so you've got three distinct cultures in

00:39:42.600 switzerland and here's what's interesting the three cultures had tremendously different

00:39:48.460 experiences in the same country and it's not even a big country geography wise switzerland's not

00:39:55.340 not terribly large and in that little country switzerland the germans did great germans had a pretty

00:40:04.100 good outcome comparable to germany itself the french didn't do so well they did bad just like france

00:40:13.360 now how do you explain that the french people in switzerland had the same results as the french

00:40:20.440 people in france and the german people in switzerland had the same experience as the german people in

00:40:27.740 germany but in switzerland itself in the same country with the same with the same leadership wildly

00:40:34.780 different results and same with the belgian group so they they matched each of those three ethnicities

00:40:42.480 matched very well to what the country that they are associated with different country how they did

00:40:50.020 how do you explain that well one hypothesis is that it's a cultural difference it could be that

00:40:58.840 germans don't touch as much it could be that they don't have the same i don't know closeness

00:41:04.240 hand shaking just cheek kissing i don't know maybe something like that um so that's one one possibility and that was

00:41:13.420 what was suggested by yasha's tweet but of course andres backhouse came into the comments and uh and ruined all

00:41:22.360 my happiness because i thought at last i understand what's going on there's a very big difference in terms of

00:41:29.060 cultural behavior that might be important and andres points out that there's also another big variable

00:41:37.220 that cannot be overlooked which is commuting so in other words the french speaking part probably

00:41:45.300 commutes to other french places the german speaking part probably commute to work to other german speaking

00:41:51.480 places i assume some of this is over the border and that it really might have to do with where the

00:41:57.780 infection gets a hold first and then where do they travel in other words do the french speaking people in 1.00

00:42:06.320 switzerland spend as much time traveling to the german and belgian parts of switzerland or do they stick within their

00:42:13.260 own french speaking part probably a lot of sticking within your own neighborhood so it could be that travel and

00:42:23.500 transportation patterns end up explaining the whole thing that if you have a certain kind of

00:42:30.260 transportation pattern you are relatively safe let's say new zealand what is the international travel

00:42:37.640 pattern or even the domestic travel pattern within new zealand and if you saw that visually compared it

00:42:44.400 to say the united states would they look similar just you know one is bigger is that the only difference

00:42:50.320 i don't think so i think our travel patterns in the united states might have a lot to do with our

00:42:56.600 experience if not the culture all right um so that's still an open question but the fact that

00:43:05.240 switzerland had such different experiences with one leadership does that not tell you that leadership is not

00:43:13.160 the overarching um variable because switzerland should have had a fairly uniform experience if the only

00:43:23.200 thing that matters is how well you manage the manage the outbreak but in fact they were so different

00:43:29.680 that you could almost rule out leadership as even being a variable because if if it were you'd get more

00:43:37.680 similar results and when you got something that was you know an outsized um effect like an outbreak

00:43:44.900 it would be like new york city where you could look at it and say well it's new york city we had more

00:43:50.300 travel um there was a problem with the the old folks who were put in uh nursing homes etc so you would

00:43:58.560 identify it if it wasn't you know if it was a an exception you could track it down pretty easily

00:44:03.580 all right um more and more people talking about the similarities between the polling this year

00:44:09.580 and the polling in 2016 and if you look at the swing states especially and you look at the differences

00:44:15.600 um you can see that the amount that hillary was leading trump in 2016 only to lose those same states

00:44:25.260 is very similar in fact in fact biden you know doesn't even lead as much as hillary was

00:44:32.900 so are we going to run into the same situation because it looks exactly like 2016 well a lot of

00:44:41.920 people are saying yes this looks exactly like 2016 so we're going to get the same result but here's

00:44:49.180 the counter argument the counter argument from uh nate uh nate silver who uh i hold now as one of the

00:44:58.040 best follows on uh twitter so if you're not following him you really should uh he's tremendous

00:45:05.500 at sticking to the numbers now does that mean he's always right of course not it doesn't work like that

00:45:11.620 he's not he's not the kind of job where being right all the time is even a thing but he's really right a lot

00:45:18.580 so even though he you know slightly got the 2016 race wrong it was only slightly you know he was

00:45:26.080 pretty close so i would consider him a very credible source and he says that uh the 2016 experience won't

00:45:34.700 tell us about 2020 because the pollsters figured out what they did wrong in 2016 and they've made

00:45:42.120 adjustments so you can't compare them because one is before they knew they had a problem and one is

00:45:48.180 after they corrected the problem so now 2020 is good right accurate now okay that's a smart argument

00:45:57.100 but there's a counter to the counter which i'll offer now some people say that there were a few if any

00:46:05.000 shy trump supporters in 2016 after all there's some difference of opinion on that but there is i think

00:46:13.660 there's some uh unity on the fact that it wasn't gigantic you know it may have might have been small

00:46:19.540 might have made the difference but it wasn't gigantic the the hidden shy trump supporters who don't show up

00:46:25.720 in the polls but 2020 is not 2016 we have four years of being vilified for being trump supporters

00:46:34.980 if you if you tell me that there aren't more people hiding their trump support in 2020 even from

00:46:42.540 pollsters if you tell me that's not a thing i you've lost all credibility because let me tell you

00:46:49.960 i don't have data you know i don't have a a way to show you data to prove it but a hundred percent of

00:46:57.600 experience and observation is compatible with the fact that they're hiding you know not least

00:47:04.960 of all i asked in a twitter poll which is unscientific of course but i still got hundreds

00:47:10.440 of people within a minute who said that they've lied to pollsters this year this year they've lied

00:47:17.720 to pollsters so if if hundreds of people who follow me on twitter can in in a minute will confess that

00:47:25.940 they did that i think there's a lot of that out there there's a lot of that out there all right

00:47:31.780 um i'm starting to think that the uh oh and then if you look at some of the other indicators like

00:47:38.320 there's one indicator that says that if the uh the candidate who gets over 75 percent

00:47:44.840 in the primaries always gets re-elected so there are a bunch of other little weirdo kinds of uh trends

00:47:53.000 and correlations that favor the president so all of the ones that can't be rigged favor trump

00:48:01.920 all of the ones that can be rigged and we're pretty sure they were in 2016 all of those seem to be

00:48:09.320 against trump so if it's something that can be rigged it's against trump if it can't be rigged such

00:48:17.240 as looking at how much anybody got in the primaries in the past if it can't be rigged it favors trump

00:48:23.620 coincidence a coincidence that the only things that don't favor him are the things that are easily

00:48:31.240 rigged and were in 2016 as far as i can tell all right here's a an annoying provocative thought

00:48:38.740 i feel as though the election could come down to um you know it'll always be close it could come down

00:48:46.780 to how successfully the harris biden campaign that's what i'm going to call them for now for now on the

00:48:52.280 harris biden campaign and their corporate lackeys it might come down to how how well they can keep

00:48:58.140 black voters uninformed isn't that awful that the election of this in this country will almost 0.97

00:49:08.060 certainly come down to how well democrats can bamboozle and dupe black voters into thinking

00:49:16.680 you know trump is something he's not and the key to that the most important thing is the fine people

00:49:25.040 hoax the reason that i keep hammering on that one hoax when you know politics is full of things that

00:49:31.960 are not true but i keep hammering on that one thing relentlessly it's because that's the key

00:49:37.200 i tend i tend to think of the world uh in a physical analogy quite often when i used to do computer

00:49:44.600 programming years ago i would i would imagine my program as a pinball machine where the you know

00:49:52.200 the control of the program was the ball and i was putting bumpers and levers and things to control

00:49:58.440 you know where the ball ends up so i would translate my my programs into physical things so i could

00:50:05.340 manipulate them physically when i was not sitting in front of my computer so i could do my programming

00:50:11.520 in physical ways like okay i need to build the structure down here there's going to be a you know

00:50:17.060 building over here that does this and i tend to do the same thing with politics i translate it into

00:50:24.960 these physical models so i can manipulate them in my head and one of the physical models is that

00:50:30.760 black voters are literally in a misinformation jail all right i suppose is that a racist visualization 0.65

00:50:41.120 probably is so uh just assume that i don't mean it that way um but i imagine that because they are

00:50:48.820 uninformed and their their new sources and specifically in this this one area not in general but in this one

00:50:55.860 area they're under informed which is they believe the fine people hoax was real because their news source

00:51:03.780 tells them it's real and they don't see anything else so if you believed that the president really called

00:51:10.480 neo-nazis and white supremacists fine people and that he said it in public and that he said it

00:51:17.520 with no remorse if you believe that was true you would believe everything else bad said about him

00:51:24.560 and race because if that thing's true anything could be true so the fine people hoax is not like the

00:51:33.120 other things it's the key to the jail and if black people ever get that key in other words if if the black 0.84

00:51:42.640 voters learn how badly they've been duped intentionally completely intentionally how badly they've been

00:51:50.860 conned on that one hoax that makes all the other hoaxes look real if they ever get that key they're

00:51:59.060 just going to shove it in the lock and they're never going to vote democrat again now what are the odds

00:52:04.440 that that'll happen low i think the odds the odds of the black population getting their hands on that

00:52:11.460 key and finding out how badly they've been duped by democrats it's low because they have control of the

00:52:17.660 new sources but it could happen it's not impossible it's just unlikely

00:52:22.300 um here's the best funniest thing that i've heard in a while let's say all day uh there's a sports

00:52:33.700 commentator maybe you've seen him he appears on fox news every every now and then jason whitlock

00:52:38.280 he's uh he's black which is important to this story and i say this every time can we ever get to

00:52:47.440 the place where you can tell a freaking story without mentioning the race or the gender of the person

00:52:54.600 involved can we get to that point like oh i just crave the time when i don't have to add that and

00:53:02.620 he's black because it does matter to the story and what he said was uh that lebron james is the black

00:53:11.300 trump and the first time i heard it i thought no he's not how does that make sense how is lebron james

00:53:21.340 the the black trump and then he goes on to explain it and i go oh yeah he is the black trump it goes

00:53:29.020 like this um lebron this is uh jason willock quote lebron fashions himself as a dignified statesman

00:53:37.460 a role model political activist and champion of racial equality he is every bit as crude undignified 0.94

00:53:44.780 inarticulate as our sitting president james writes uh james meaning lebron writes and speaks at a third

00:53:52.160 grade level the athletic privilege he's enjoyed that's right you were not born with lebron james

00:54:02.300 physical abilities i wasn't i wasn't born with his physical capabilities he was born privileged

00:54:11.640 um and he that he's enjoyed since about age 10 has spoiled and pampered him the same way wealth and

00:54:17.700 privilege spoiled and pampered president trump jason whitlock argument made you are correct

00:54:26.760 now i would argue at some of his uh characterizations of our president but because specifically the part

00:54:35.760 about his vocabulary because i think the president's vocabulary is ideally suited for the way he

00:54:41.280 communicates with the public but the correlation and the analogy analogy accepted analogy accepted

00:54:49.720 uh and so i think i'll be calling lebron james black trump from now on because it's wonderfully delicious

00:54:58.440 all right that is my program for today and i hope you enjoyed it um so the the uh slaughter meter set

00:55:10.620 at 100 you should you should expect that this coming week will be really newsy a lot of news going to

00:55:19.220 come out and it could change everything so the slaughter meter could be anything by tomorrow but as of

00:55:25.980 today it's a hundred percent and that is my show for the day

00:55:32.140 all right periscope people have been signed off and i'm still here with you youtubers i like to spend a

00:55:43.320 little time looking at your comments um thank you it is the best part of the day i agree totally the best part

00:55:53.200 of the day all right that's all for me today and i will talk to you tomorrow

00:55:59.240 you

00:56:09.120 you

00:56:10.120 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 11, 2020

Episode 1151 Scott Adams： Why the Trump Slaughtermeter Just Got Pinned at 100%. Swiss Coronavirus Mystery. Who Reversal

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