Episode 1151 Scott Adams： Why the Trump Slaughtermeter Just Got Pinned at 100%. Swiss Coronavirus Mystery. Who Reversal
Episode Stats
Words per Minute
147.78833
Summary
Why does the mainstream media not pay attention to the biggest story of all time? Why is it not being reported on? Why does it seem like it's happening and not happening at the same time, and why does nobody care about it?
Transcript
00:00:00.000
hey everybody come on in it's time it's time for coffee with Scott Adams best part of the day
00:00:18.420
every single time and what do you need to enjoy coffee with Scott Adams well as the name implies
00:00:26.040
coffee or a beverage of your choice but you've got to put it in something you don't want to drink it
00:00:31.900
with your hands that's bad form instead you need a cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or
00:00:37.900
stein a canteen jug or flask of a vessel of any kind see them on my back shelf there that's your
00:00:42.560
visual cue and join me now for the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better
00:00:50.300
it's called the simultaneous sip and it's gonna happen right now go
00:00:57.720
I dare say that was siptastic yeah it was oh we got a lot of fun stuff to talk about today
00:01:10.880
I'd like to start by telling you about my dream oh no don't turn it off yet I know there's nothing
00:01:18.700
more boring than hearing about somebody's dream but watch how cleverly I fold this into my story
00:01:25.840
hold on when I was a kid I had a recurring dream in which I could fly I could actually just float and
00:01:35.340
levitate and fly and I would have this dream maybe once a year and it was my favorite dream but there
00:01:43.800
was one catch even though the dream itself was spectacular because as I said I could fly
00:01:51.380
imagine a vivid dream where you can just float around the house and you could be up at the ceiling
00:01:56.940
and you could go outside and you could float over the town it was great there was only one problem with
00:02:05.880
it and it was this for whatever reason my dream always included the following element other people
00:02:14.880
were not impressed it was always in the dream I'd be floating literally at the ceiling and I'd say to
00:02:22.740
the people below me say hey do you see this I'm literally flying and people would look up and then they
00:02:30.560
just continue their conversations and I'd say no I don't think you understand I am above the ground
00:02:36.620
defying gravity literally the first human being who has ever flown and I'm doing it right in front of
00:02:43.820
you and nobody cared and they would just go about their business and I would keep saying are you serious
00:02:50.220
I'm flying I'm flying look at me why can't you see me every year once a year and so I was
00:03:00.560
reminded of that dream when I was reading a piece by Andrew McCarthy in which he says this that this
00:03:09.680
is just one part of what he said that is that Clinton Clinton meaning Hillary actually did what she
00:03:15.260
accused Trump of doing she colluded with Russians through through yet another foreigner she recruited to
00:03:21.740
meddle in the 2016 presidential campaign the ludicrous former British by Christopher Steele in order to
00:03:29.500
damage Trump's campaign and cinch the election for herself now I believe that that is so well
00:03:36.480
documented by the handwritten notes etc coming out of the uh out of the disclosures that this is just a
00:03:45.420
fact right and I feel like Andrew McCarthy is having my flying dream right now he he's he's saying
00:03:53.220
okay people it's the biggest story of all time the whole Russia collusion thing was literally opposite
00:04:01.400
it was actually an example of Hillary Clinton colluding with Russians to overthrow the legally
00:04:08.800
elected government of the United States so how about that and all the people on earth say yeah
00:04:16.460
uh-huh checking my stocks how's the weather today and then Andrew McCarthy says um okay I don't think
00:04:24.940
you heard me because your reaction is not really matching what I just said so let me let me say it again
00:04:30.420
more clearly we have now proof no doubt about it proof that Hillary Clinton colluded with Russians to
00:04:39.420
overthrow the legally elected government of the United States anything does anybody care seriously
00:04:50.080
I don't know what to say about it it is so mind-bogglingly
00:04:56.860
it's exactly like my flying dream why can't people pay attention to this
00:05:04.100
why does it seem like it's happening and not happening at the same time why is it the biggest
00:05:11.900
story of all time that's not being reported on at least the mainstream media it's mind-boggling
00:05:20.920
anyway moving on um I've told you about something I call the Adams law of slow-moving disasters
00:05:30.000
and it goes like this when humanity can see a huge problem coming from a long ways away
00:05:37.620
we have a hundred percent track record of handling it for example we could see far in advance that it
00:05:45.760
would be hard to feed all the people if the population kept growing but we figured out how to
00:05:51.280
make more food and and you know we we did a pretty good job of it we thought we would run out of oil
00:05:57.680
but we figured out how to frack and how to find more oil and build solar panels etc so
00:06:03.700
looks like we'll get through it likewise with climate change looks like it's the end of the
00:06:08.960
world if the scientists the consensus of them are right but I'm pretty confident that we'll figure
00:06:15.600
out workarounds and we'll be fine but as the time that you have to fix a problem gets compressed
00:06:22.980
the shorter and shorter you have well then it gets a little more uncertain the more time you have the
00:06:29.240
more likely you'll figure it out but what about voting this year the question is whether the voting
00:06:37.480
mechanisms will be secure will it be will the mail-in voting give us a credible result or a non-credible
00:06:46.660
result will there be so many problems that we can't fix it well we're seeing already a whole bunch of
00:06:52.760
misprinted ballots that we're scrambling to to fix you see states moving their deadlines for when you
00:07:00.840
could have a postmark on your mail-in ballot so you're seeing people scrambling to adjust and they
00:07:07.060
you could argue that they might have started a few months ago and they've got a few more weeks and
00:07:12.880
they're working they're probably working you know around the clock trying to fix problems and monitor
00:07:18.240
for problems and everything it's going to be close it's going to be close on one hand I always bet on
00:07:25.420
humans if there's enough time on the other hand if there's not enough time I bet against humans every
00:07:33.240
time because humans are not good at doing complicated things correctly the first try it's almost not a thing
00:07:42.120
in fact when it happens it becomes the stuff of legends for example the first time we actually
00:07:48.560
launched a rocket with the attempt of putting somebody on the moon it worked that's one of the
00:07:56.100
reasons it's such a big deal because it was a really big chance but it worked so that's the one we talk
00:08:02.480
about more than anything else so if I had to guess um let me put this positive filter on it I think the
00:08:13.500
voting will be better than it should have been in other words I think that humanity is really going to
00:08:20.560
try to rise to this challenge because the stakes are so high and we do have some time it's not like a
00:08:27.340
hurricane you know where you have maybe a few days we had weeks there should have been enough time to
00:08:33.460
print things reprint things check things scrub databases as much as possible so we might be in a
00:08:40.220
little better shape than we thought um so that's my positivity on there so yesterday I shared with you my
00:08:49.020
conspiracy theory that you shouldn't take too seriously that Kim Jong-un um shows up on video
00:08:55.860
not talking and then separately you hear the audio of him talking but you don't see him talking on video
00:09:03.380
which at least opens up the possibility that you're looking at a body double on video and somebody who
00:09:09.920
can do a good impression on audio so CNN ran another piece on Kim Jong-un's big celebration thing in which
00:09:19.160
he showed up in public and uh it teased that it was going to show Kim Jong-un being emotional during
00:09:26.720
his speech so I said to myself ah I guess that conspiracy theory fell apart because CNN is going
00:09:34.160
to show me a clip of Kim Jong-un giving his speech it does look like it's something current and he'll be
00:09:41.860
emotional while he's talking and then I will see him physically the video and I'll hear him talking at the
00:09:48.220
same time and then there's no doubt about it all right if you see the emotion and you see him
00:09:54.500
talking he's he's alive he's well and then they show the clip and they show Kim Jong-un in front of
00:10:01.780
the microphone and he's he's got some tears he's emotional and then I'm waiting for him to talk
00:10:07.940
and they cut away they don't show him talking I don't know if that video exists probably it exists
00:10:18.000
because I don't believe my own conspiracy theory but it's getting increasingly interesting
00:10:24.440
that the thing you'd most expect a video of him talking currently the only thing that I would find
00:10:32.820
completely credible doesn't yet exist so that's why it's a conspiracy theory don't take it too
00:10:40.200
seriously um Andres uh backhouse who keeps me honest on all things data uh when you when you're on
00:10:50.220
twitter all day um when you depend on uh when you're on twitter all day you see a lot of bad data
00:10:58.020
and Andres often comes into the comments and clears up my misconceptions so uh he did that a couple of
00:11:06.480
times today one of the times was he pointed out there's a paper that estimates the trade war costs
00:11:12.720
for china were far greater than for the united states so they do the math they figured out that china
00:11:19.580
probably cost them 35 billion which would be uh about 0.3 of their gdp whereas the u.s probably cost us
00:11:28.960
uh a little under 16 billion half as much but we also have a bigger economy so it was only 0.08
00:11:38.220
percent of our gdp and apparently vietnam was the big beneficiary their gdp went up so
00:11:45.460
um it's starting to look like trump's instinct on the trade war was correct in the sense that it would
00:11:55.420
cost china more than it would cost us so if somebody was going to blink it would probably be
00:12:02.240
them uh you know all things being equal now of course they would put pressure on our farmers
00:12:08.780
so it's not exactly apples to apples you know because they could put a little political pressure
00:12:14.320
on us in a way that we can't put political pressure on them because of the differences in
00:12:18.520
the systems but it still suggests that trump's instincts were in the right direction
00:12:23.480
that china would have more to lose and if you go into a uh debate or let's say into a trade war
00:12:31.600
with somebody who definitely has more to lose than you do it's a strong position doesn't mean you'll
00:12:37.720
come out ahead doesn't mean you'll win doesn't mean it comes out good in the end but it certainly
00:12:43.280
makes it look smart makes it look like a good play um all right so let's get to the meat of this
00:12:50.820
i have placed the trump slaughter meter at 100 it has been as low as 50 even last week when trump
00:13:00.880
was was still sick with coronavirus and was doing some things that were getting him a lot of negative
00:13:07.100
attention uh like driving around you know and uh putting at risk his uh drivers the critics say
00:13:15.820
and he did put them at risk i just think it was such a small risk it wasn't terribly important
00:13:21.160
but it's at 100 now i remind you for those who are not familiar with the slaughter meter the
00:13:29.660
slaughter meter is not a prediction all right it's not the slaughter meter just tells you how the day
00:13:36.440
is going or how the week is going it's a snapshot in time that says artificially and remember this is
00:13:43.400
very artificial that if everything kept going the way things went this week you would expect you know
00:13:50.400
this outcome so if everything went the way things are going today trump would win easily and let me
00:13:58.200
give you an idea of what's happening today because the news cycle is just crazy isn't it how quickly you
00:14:04.880
can be whiplashed from from oh he's definitely gonna lose to oh he's definitely gonna win oh he's
00:14:09.980
definitely gonna lose it's like whiplash so the the slaughter meter could change again you know 20 times
00:14:15.540
before election but as of today it's pinned at 100 and here's why number one uh well let me give you
00:14:23.780
some context trump doesn't need to convince you that he did a great job in all elements of the
00:14:32.480
coronavirus he doesn't need to make that case now you think he would because that's the biggest
00:14:38.840
uh complaint against him it's the one that seems to stick so all of the experts seem to agree
00:14:45.660
democrats and republicans that where trump is most vulnerable to criticism is the coronavirus because
00:14:52.680
the u.s numbers don't look good compared to other countries so that's gigantic gigantic weakness because
00:15:00.520
it's the thing in our minds it's the thing that most scares us it affects the economy it affects
00:15:07.000
everything he's got to get the coronavirus right or else he can't get re-elected right wouldn't you say
00:15:14.180
that would just be obvious he's got to get it right it's the most important thing or does he
00:15:21.560
this is what i would like to add to the thinking on this not true he does not need to convince you
00:15:30.020
that the most important thing happening right now he got right there's another way to do it
00:15:36.840
he has to convince you that it isn't that scary because if you're convinced that the coronavirus went
00:15:44.560
from a 10 and a 10 in scariness let's say in march and he's reduced it to a five maybe if trump can get
00:15:55.520
your fear level from a 10 and a 10 down to a five it's not going to matter that much how it was handled
00:16:03.440
because its importance will be less in your mind so here's what happened this week that will have the
00:16:11.340
the irrational effect of making you less scared number one trump is 73 or 4 got the coronavirus
00:16:21.520
he's got a comorbidity went into the hospital and as of today just what a week later or whatever
00:16:28.180
he looks great he looks great now should anybody take from one anecdote about one person who had
00:16:37.100
the best medical care in the world and was discovered early with the testing and had a good outcome
00:16:42.880
should you extend that one single person and of seven billion would it be logical or rational to say
00:16:51.720
oh well i guess it's safe because of what happened with that one person that one time no that would be
00:16:58.180
completely irrational and you're going to do it anyway you can't help it we are story driven creatures
00:17:07.480
you could give me all the data in the world big mountain of data over here and that one story about
00:17:14.340
trump gets the coronavirus and he's he's 100 a week later those are not equal that one story about
00:17:23.020
trump recovering is bigger than your whole mountain of data because it's visual we see it we feel it
00:17:31.860
we talk about it it comes it becomes number one in our heads it just gives us it just takes us in an
00:17:38.480
irrational place which helps trump so that's number one trump fully recovered becomes its own little story
00:17:45.420
with power and he knows that by the way he's playing it because he knows how powerful that is
00:17:52.220
here's the other thing that's coming it's not quite here yet but i would say it's right on the border of
00:18:00.840
being here and it's this there were 34 people who were allegedly uh infected who had some white house
00:18:08.820
connection 34 people that's terrible right that's really bad for trump right because it would show
00:18:17.740
that he mismanaged the protection element of it and got 34 people infected so that's day one story
00:18:25.420
but what's the story next week chris christie is already out of the hospital looks like he'll be
00:18:32.820
fine weren't you worried about him i mean honestly if you're being honest you know you heard that chris
00:18:40.000
christie got coronavirus and you said to yourself oh that's not good because comorbidity city right he's
00:18:48.080
got i think two comorbidities he's got asthma he's got a weight issue he's not as young as he could be
00:18:55.380
i don't know how old he is but he's not quite into the danger zone but he's not a spring chicken
00:18:59.660
so he's out of the hospital looks like he'll be fine what happens what happens if and i think this is
00:19:08.780
the most likely scenario what happens if all 34 people are fine in a week
00:19:15.480
doesn't look as dangerous does it now would that tell you anything what could you look at 34 people
00:19:24.200
who again were tested early founder found their symptoms early got the best treatment in the world
00:19:30.860
probably can you make any you know logical inference from 34 people no you can't they're all special
00:19:39.400
cases but that's not how your brain works your brain is going to say okay now i see this pattern
00:19:47.060
feels like everybody who gets it including chris christie including president trump with his
00:19:52.940
comorbidities it feels like everybody's getting better maybe this trump cure
00:20:00.340
huh this regeneron and maybe with the remdesivir depending on where you are in the infection
00:20:06.600
arc huh it's sounding a little bit more like a cure isn't it now is that logical nope nope there is no
00:20:18.420
logic to what i just said because the the uh the death rate of the virus is known to be less than one
00:20:26.640
percent and if you took 34 people with great health care who got you know detected early there's a
00:20:34.160
really really high chance they'll all be fine and it wouldn't mean anything beyond what you already knew
00:20:40.680
it would just be more of the same but because we're going to look at it because we're focused on it
00:20:46.600
because there'll be famous people senators uh you know the the white house spocks all of these people
00:20:54.420
are people you know they're familiar faces the weight of those 34 people getting better and let's hope
00:21:01.480
they do right you know nobody's out of the woods completely yet but it's going to start looking like
00:21:07.680
that really soon starting to look like they're all out of the woods because if any of them had turned
00:21:13.840
bad if anybody else had been hospitalized well you'd know it by now you'd know it by now
00:21:20.420
but there's i'm saving the best one for last all right so before i get to the best one last the
00:21:29.840
economy is improving right so your economy is getting better uh and we have these anecdotal
00:21:36.760
stories of people who seem to go through the coronavirus fine and there's a story for why it's
00:21:42.680
better now than it used to be and president trump has provided the story the story is that these new
00:21:49.180
therapeutics are the bomb they're just really good so you've got a reason and you've got a story
00:21:56.140
way more powerful than data way more powerful not even in the same universe data very very unimportant
00:22:05.600
if you haven't noticed it should be the most important but it's not story very important and the
00:22:14.240
story is all trump right now you didn't see that coming did you so the economy is approving uh which
00:22:20.760
you would expect because it's coming off a low base right it shouldn't be any big surprise that an
00:22:27.680
economy coming off a low point would have big percentage gains so i i think somebody said that on
00:22:33.920
october 29th just a few days before election we're going to see gdp results that show that the gdp had
00:22:41.840
a record increase in other words a world record for the united states increase quarter over quarter
00:22:50.140
i think i think it's going to look like that it might not but it'll be a good increase either way
00:22:55.060
now why should you make from that oh my god trump is a genius because we made a record for recovery
00:23:01.900
no no it would not be logical in any way to attribute that to leadership per se because
00:23:11.260
we're coming off a low base and anybody who had been president would have experienced probably a
00:23:17.680
record gain because what's weird about this uh this disaster it's not like a war where you have to
00:23:23.620
rebuild a factory before you can get your gdp up you just have to turn on the lights and say all right
00:23:29.740
back to work turn on the lights everybody who used to be working here you're all you're all trained
00:23:34.580
just come back and do what you were doing last last you know spring so the economy will of course
00:23:41.900
look good it won't mean what people think it means but they will process it as though it's a trump
00:23:47.880
success right so irrationally it all works in his favor still save the best part for last are you ready
00:23:55.680
this will make this whole periscope worthwhile so as of today the world health organization
00:24:02.840
who announced that it does not favor lockdowns as a as a way of combating coronavirus
00:24:10.620
did you know that yet yeah the world health organization experts if you will indeed probably
00:24:21.060
the experts in this very thing have come out publicly said they do not favor lockdowns of the
00:24:29.300
economy and the reason given reason given it's bad for poor people
00:24:36.320
bad for black people bad for brown people bad for anybody who's in the bad economic situation
00:24:46.760
and here's what's fun about this you might say to yourself well scott but the world health
00:24:54.340
organization has some credibility problems that's why we pulled out they were you know first said masks
00:25:00.140
are bad then they said they're good they said that the not to worry too much about the virus but then it
00:25:06.700
turns out we should worry so it does seem as though the world health organization is not that credible but
00:25:13.840
it gets better it gets better let's say you're a democrat and you hear this news the world health
00:25:23.440
organization says that well they don't use these words but they say in effect that trump was right
00:25:30.960
when he contradicted the experts and said let's open up the economy that's right one of the biggest
00:25:40.160
expert groups and according to democrats very credible the world health organization has just
00:25:47.740
sided with trump who had opposed most of the experts or a lot of the experts on that there were there
00:25:55.200
was a very growing sizable minority of experts who were saying the same thing the world health
00:26:00.580
organization said which is ah you might be hurting people more than helping with these lockdowns
00:26:05.800
so if you're a democrat and your big thing about trump is that he doesn't follow the science
00:26:16.520
those of us who like president trump one of the things you like about him the best
00:26:24.180
is that he doesn't follow the science because the science is often bullshit
00:26:30.480
right you knew that you knew that you knew that the science is often not always and certainly we
00:26:39.820
should pay attention to science certainly we should give it the the greatest of weight
00:26:45.160
but it's often bullshit that's just a fact and you need a leader who is willing to say um
00:26:53.220
okay i hear what you're saying but i still think it's bullshit and here's why that's what trump did
00:27:02.300
from the very beginning when everybody else was saying uh hey idiot orange man lock down it's the only
00:27:10.720
way we can defeat this thing you gotta lock down why are you being such a moron why don't you listen
00:27:17.520
to the experts why don't you listen to science uh-oh science just agreed with him maybe not all of
00:27:26.420
science but the world health organization not exactly president trump's friend right is there anybody who
00:27:34.520
dislikes president trump more than the world health organization probably not this month
00:27:39.880
they might they might be the winners so uh somebody says i'm glad you're finally in about the experts
00:27:50.200
i don't think you know my history if you're saying that comment i have never been the one who backed
00:27:57.100
the experts uncritically i i would be closer to the opposite i'm very much closer to the person who said
00:28:04.900
there's a reason the experts are wrong here are all the reasons i'm the dilbert guy
00:28:09.540
you you don't write the dilbert cartoon and believe experts are right you're just automatically
00:28:15.060
i think that they i think experts are moving fast in the direction of being right that's what science
00:28:22.460
does science starts out not knowing the answer takes a lot of guesses that sometimes don't work out
00:28:28.660
but it's moving toward truth it's eliminating things that they used to think are true and you know
00:28:34.780
narrowing it down getting toward truth the problem with the experts in science in general
00:28:39.300
is that you can't tell where you are in the path you don't know if you're 25 of the way to truth
00:28:45.260
50 or 100 because it looks the same you just don't know when you're done because you think you think
00:28:52.780
you're done and oh there's a new new discovery i'm not done so if you add these things together
00:28:59.120
trump recovering himself anecdotal but it still is powerful 34 people recovering probably we hope
00:29:07.100
good you know fingers crossed um again just anecdotal doesn't mean anything scientifically
00:29:13.640
but it'll matter it'll matter to how afraid you are and then the world health organization
00:29:20.800
completely eviscerating the argument that trump doesn't follow science it's the biggest argument
00:29:29.380
coming out of the biden campaign that's not the crazy racism one and it just got eviscerated
00:29:35.480
because now the democrats have two choices they can either oppose science by opposing the world
00:29:44.960
health organization do you see where how awesome this is the democrats will have to oppose experts
00:29:52.160
and oppose science to maintain their current view that trump is wrong they can't have it both ways
00:29:59.940
anymore they can't say trump is wrong and science is good and and accurate and you should follow it
00:30:08.500
it's gone it's their biggest argument it just evaporated now does that mean that the world health
00:30:15.160
organization is right i don't know how the hell would i know right i i have a preference you know if you
00:30:23.920
make me the leader i'll give you a choice i'll give you a confident sounding choice of what i think we
00:30:30.860
should do but i don't know you know that's part of being a leader you just got to take your best shot
00:30:37.220
sometimes so uh this is one of the strongest days that the president has had by far i don't know if the
00:30:46.600
rest of the media will recognize this because it's the sort of thing that's just happening in people's
00:30:51.860
impressions so going back to my original point the president does not need to convince you
00:30:58.440
that he got everything right in managing the coronavirus he needs to make you less afraid of it
00:31:05.580
so it just goes down in your priorities the world health organization just did that for him
00:31:12.760
they they just completed it he what he couldn't have gotten there i don't think he couldn't have gotten
00:31:19.760
there without their help because people were still going to say yeah but the experts oh but what about
00:31:25.260
the experts oh yeah i hear what you're saying but what about the experts not anymore now the experts are
00:31:33.640
clearly on different sides and what do you do when the experts disagree what is the right thing for a
00:31:40.760
leader to do when experts disagree the leader makes the choice and the leader if it's a good leader
00:31:49.280
will make a choice based on the most basic concepts in other words he won't make the
00:31:56.440
we won't make a choice or she the leader will not make a choice based on um the science as in well i
00:32:04.940
back this scientist and i believe this data and i don't believe that data that would be bad leadership
00:32:09.880
because if the scientists can't agree it would be absurd for the leader to say uh i'm going to look
00:32:16.500
into the science myself and now i've read all the science and i pick this one bad leadership
00:32:22.560
a good leader says we can't know that's what we know what we know is we don't know so what do you do
00:32:31.560
if you don't know how do you manage your risk if you don't know and i think that the president
00:32:37.760
has found exactly the right sweet spot here he's the the thing that you can default to
00:32:44.720
is freedom because the one thing we know is that if we were to lose our freedom to anything
00:32:52.680
screw it we're out of here right we'd all just close the planet and starve to death if we lose our
00:33:01.420
freedom we don't even want to be here if you say to me i can give you your freedom back but there's a
00:33:08.880
one percent chance that you'll die i'm in i'll take my freedom i'll give you your freedom back but
00:33:16.760
there's a one percent chance your grandmother might die a few years early i'm in sorry grandma i'm going
00:33:24.960
to talk to grandma first but you know what she agrees grandma doesn't disagree grandma wants me
00:33:31.520
to be free grandma wants to be free will she take the the higher risk that she'll die yes she will
00:33:39.700
if she doesn't i'll do everything i can to keep grandma safe but if you don't know what's the right
00:33:47.280
thing to do you have to default to the primary primary human needs and we have a primary human need for
00:33:56.420
freedom and that affects of course the economy which keeps poor people alive which keeps us happy
00:34:04.900
which keeps us from killing ourselves all of these benefits so trump has done what trump always does
00:34:13.620
he he peered through this this impenetrable you know data science crap that wasn't quite as solid as it
00:34:24.980
ever needed to be we wanted it to be good but it never was he peered through it all and he found the
00:34:31.640
essential human part and the human part is this
00:34:36.920
day one coronavirus scares us day two the coronavirus attacks us attacks the united states
00:34:49.380
day three coronavirus seems to be winning even though our president said it wouldn't day four
00:34:57.040
coronavirus is kicking our fucking asses day five day six week two week three week four
00:35:05.620
coronavirus is ripping our civilization apart month three coronavirus has us by the neck week five
00:35:17.300
or month five coronavirus is just kicking our fucking asses month six fuck you coronavirus we're done
00:35:31.680
we got us some tools they're not complete tools they're not they're not enough to completely destroy the
00:35:38.540
coronavirus yet but we're going on offense we're not going to lose anymore we're not going to lose to the
00:35:46.040
virus we're not going to lose to china we're not going to lose anymore and your president has made it clear
00:35:54.040
that the losing part is behind us will people die yes yes they will will americans die in large numbers
00:36:03.600
that should and will alarm us yes are we going to back down because it's risky nope are we going to go
00:36:14.580
forward yes are we going to beat the coronavirus one way or another one way or another because we're done
00:36:24.960
we are just done losing can't lose forever we're done losing and the president has called the term and the
00:36:35.840
world health organization gave him an assist and um i think i think it could be over uh over in terms of
00:36:44.640
the election so biden coughed twice in public uh yesterday and he coughed the other day while he was
00:36:51.540
giving a talk now in all likelihood the coughing is nothing he might be on a medication for example there's
00:36:58.440
one um blood pressure medication that gives you a dry cough maybe he's on that who knows you know at that
00:37:04.660
age everybody is so probably his coughing is not coronavirus but it is 2020 and in 2020 um in 2020
00:37:16.620
nothing nothing is off the table as as schumer has said everything's on the table so will 2020 deliver
00:37:28.680
the most 2020 thing that could ever happen which is biden getting the coronavirus now keep in mind
00:37:36.980
that if biden gets the coronavirus and either one of these two things happens either he recovers fine
00:37:43.240
which would be the best news which would also make the virus look less scary um again not in a data way
00:37:51.580
but it would just make us feel that way um or he has a bad outcome and then of course
00:37:56.700
trump has a better victory but we don't want that outcome that would be the worst of all cases
00:38:02.300
but he's coughing and if you see the guy that you want to you know elect president one of them has
00:38:11.900
recovered completely the other one's older and you're not so sure that biden could could recover
00:38:18.800
and he's coughing there's no way that doesn't affect you now i've said i've said that president
00:38:26.360
trump should uh ask to debate kamala harris and i think that would be a good play even though she'd
00:38:32.760
say no it would it would uh tell you to think past biden which i think would be good for the for john
00:38:39.400
all right um here's a really interesting fact set of facts coming out of switzerland
00:38:46.760
you know i've been telling you that there's something deeply unexplained about the coronavirus
00:38:51.800
numbers in terms of why is the united states have such big numbers compared to other places
00:38:57.960
it doesn't seem to be completely explained by leadership it doesn't seem to be completely
00:39:06.340
explained by you know we have higher obesity we have a higher black population and they get hit harder
00:39:12.900
if you put all of that in the mix it doesn't seem to explain the extraordinary difference
00:39:18.640
but then i heard this about switzerland this came from jasha mauck on twitter and if you look at
00:39:28.740
switzerland what's interesting about it is that it has three sections as a german speaking section
00:39:34.940
french speaking and and belgian i guess flemish speaking so you've got three distinct cultures in
00:39:42.600
switzerland and here's what's interesting the three cultures had tremendously different
00:39:48.460
experiences in the same country and it's not even a big country geography wise switzerland's not
00:39:55.340
not terribly large and in that little country switzerland the germans did great germans had a pretty
00:40:04.100
good outcome comparable to germany itself the french didn't do so well they did bad just like france
00:40:13.360
now how do you explain that the french people in switzerland had the same results as the french
00:40:20.440
people in france and the german people in switzerland had the same experience as the german people in
00:40:27.740
germany but in switzerland itself in the same country with the same with the same leadership wildly
00:40:34.780
different results and same with the belgian group so they they matched each of those three ethnicities
00:40:42.480
matched very well to what the country that they are associated with different country how they did
00:40:50.020
how do you explain that well one hypothesis is that it's a cultural difference it could be that
00:40:58.840
germans don't touch as much it could be that they don't have the same i don't know closeness
00:41:04.240
hand shaking just cheek kissing i don't know maybe something like that um so that's one one possibility and that was
00:41:13.420
what was suggested by yasha's tweet but of course andres backhouse came into the comments and uh and ruined all
00:41:22.360
my happiness because i thought at last i understand what's going on there's a very big difference in terms of
00:41:29.060
cultural behavior that might be important and andres points out that there's also another big variable
00:41:37.220
that cannot be overlooked which is commuting so in other words the french speaking part probably
00:41:45.300
commutes to other french places the german speaking part probably commute to work to other german speaking
00:41:51.480
places i assume some of this is over the border and that it really might have to do with where the
00:41:57.780
infection gets a hold first and then where do they travel in other words do the french speaking people in
00:42:06.320
switzerland spend as much time traveling to the german and belgian parts of switzerland or do they stick within their
00:42:13.260
own french speaking part probably a lot of sticking within your own neighborhood so it could be that travel and
00:42:23.500
transportation patterns end up explaining the whole thing that if you have a certain kind of
00:42:30.260
transportation pattern you are relatively safe let's say new zealand what is the international travel
00:42:37.640
pattern or even the domestic travel pattern within new zealand and if you saw that visually compared it
00:42:44.400
to say the united states would they look similar just you know one is bigger is that the only difference
00:42:50.320
i don't think so i think our travel patterns in the united states might have a lot to do with our
00:42:56.600
experience if not the culture all right um so that's still an open question but the fact that
00:43:05.240
switzerland had such different experiences with one leadership does that not tell you that leadership is not
00:43:13.160
the overarching um variable because switzerland should have had a fairly uniform experience if the only
00:43:23.200
thing that matters is how well you manage the manage the outbreak but in fact they were so different
00:43:29.680
that you could almost rule out leadership as even being a variable because if if it were you'd get more
00:43:37.680
similar results and when you got something that was you know an outsized um effect like an outbreak
00:43:44.900
it would be like new york city where you could look at it and say well it's new york city we had more
00:43:50.300
travel um there was a problem with the the old folks who were put in uh nursing homes etc so you would
00:43:58.560
identify it if it wasn't you know if it was a an exception you could track it down pretty easily
00:44:03.580
all right um more and more people talking about the similarities between the polling this year
00:44:09.580
and the polling in 2016 and if you look at the swing states especially and you look at the differences
00:44:15.600
um you can see that the amount that hillary was leading trump in 2016 only to lose those same states
00:44:25.260
is very similar in fact in fact biden you know doesn't even lead as much as hillary was
00:44:32.900
so are we going to run into the same situation because it looks exactly like 2016 well a lot of
00:44:41.920
people are saying yes this looks exactly like 2016 so we're going to get the same result but here's
00:44:49.180
the counter argument the counter argument from uh nate uh nate silver who uh i hold now as one of the
00:44:58.040
best follows on uh twitter so if you're not following him you really should uh he's tremendous
00:45:05.500
at sticking to the numbers now does that mean he's always right of course not it doesn't work like that
00:45:11.620
he's not he's not the kind of job where being right all the time is even a thing but he's really right a lot
00:45:18.580
so even though he you know slightly got the 2016 race wrong it was only slightly you know he was
00:45:26.080
pretty close so i would consider him a very credible source and he says that uh the 2016 experience won't
00:45:34.700
tell us about 2020 because the pollsters figured out what they did wrong in 2016 and they've made
00:45:42.120
adjustments so you can't compare them because one is before they knew they had a problem and one is
00:45:48.180
after they corrected the problem so now 2020 is good right accurate now okay that's a smart argument
00:45:57.100
but there's a counter to the counter which i'll offer now some people say that there were a few if any
00:46:05.000
shy trump supporters in 2016 after all there's some difference of opinion on that but there is i think
00:46:13.660
there's some uh unity on the fact that it wasn't gigantic you know it may have might have been small
00:46:19.540
might have made the difference but it wasn't gigantic the the hidden shy trump supporters who don't show up
00:46:25.720
in the polls but 2020 is not 2016 we have four years of being vilified for being trump supporters
00:46:34.980
if you if you tell me that there aren't more people hiding their trump support in 2020 even from
00:46:42.540
pollsters if you tell me that's not a thing i you've lost all credibility because let me tell you
00:46:49.960
i don't have data you know i don't have a a way to show you data to prove it but a hundred percent of
00:46:57.600
experience and observation is compatible with the fact that they're hiding you know not least
00:47:04.960
of all i asked in a twitter poll which is unscientific of course but i still got hundreds
00:47:10.440
of people within a minute who said that they've lied to pollsters this year this year they've lied
00:47:17.720
to pollsters so if if hundreds of people who follow me on twitter can in in a minute will confess that
00:47:25.940
they did that i think there's a lot of that out there there's a lot of that out there all right
00:47:31.780
um i'm starting to think that the uh oh and then if you look at some of the other indicators like
00:47:38.320
there's one indicator that says that if the uh the candidate who gets over 75 percent
00:47:44.840
in the primaries always gets re-elected so there are a bunch of other little weirdo kinds of uh trends
00:47:53.000
and correlations that favor the president so all of the ones that can't be rigged favor trump
00:48:01.920
all of the ones that can be rigged and we're pretty sure they were in 2016 all of those seem to be
00:48:09.320
against trump so if it's something that can be rigged it's against trump if it can't be rigged such
00:48:17.240
as looking at how much anybody got in the primaries in the past if it can't be rigged it favors trump
00:48:23.620
coincidence a coincidence that the only things that don't favor him are the things that are easily
00:48:31.240
rigged and were in 2016 as far as i can tell all right here's a an annoying provocative thought
00:48:38.740
i feel as though the election could come down to um you know it'll always be close it could come down
00:48:46.780
to how successfully the harris biden campaign that's what i'm going to call them for now for now on the
00:48:52.280
harris biden campaign and their corporate lackeys it might come down to how how well they can keep
00:48:58.140
black voters uninformed isn't that awful that the election of this in this country will almost
00:49:08.060
certainly come down to how well democrats can bamboozle and dupe black voters into thinking
00:49:16.680
you know trump is something he's not and the key to that the most important thing is the fine people
00:49:25.040
hoax the reason that i keep hammering on that one hoax when you know politics is full of things that
00:49:31.960
are not true but i keep hammering on that one thing relentlessly it's because that's the key
00:49:37.200
i tend i tend to think of the world uh in a physical analogy quite often when i used to do computer
00:49:44.600
programming years ago i would i would imagine my program as a pinball machine where the you know
00:49:52.200
the control of the program was the ball and i was putting bumpers and levers and things to control
00:49:58.440
you know where the ball ends up so i would translate my my programs into physical things so i could
00:50:05.340
manipulate them physically when i was not sitting in front of my computer so i could do my programming
00:50:11.520
in physical ways like okay i need to build the structure down here there's going to be a you know
00:50:17.060
building over here that does this and i tend to do the same thing with politics i translate it into
00:50:24.960
these physical models so i can manipulate them in my head and one of the physical models is that
00:50:30.760
black voters are literally in a misinformation jail all right i suppose is that a racist visualization
00:50:41.120
probably is so uh just assume that i don't mean it that way um but i imagine that because they are
00:50:48.820
uninformed and their their new sources and specifically in this this one area not in general but in this one
00:50:55.860
area they're under informed which is they believe the fine people hoax was real because their news source
00:51:03.780
tells them it's real and they don't see anything else so if you believed that the president really called
00:51:10.480
neo-nazis and white supremacists fine people and that he said it in public and that he said it
00:51:17.520
with no remorse if you believe that was true you would believe everything else bad said about him
00:51:24.560
and race because if that thing's true anything could be true so the fine people hoax is not like the
00:51:33.120
other things it's the key to the jail and if black people ever get that key in other words if if the black
00:51:42.640
voters learn how badly they've been duped intentionally completely intentionally how badly they've been
00:51:50.860
conned on that one hoax that makes all the other hoaxes look real if they ever get that key they're
00:51:59.060
just going to shove it in the lock and they're never going to vote democrat again now what are the odds
00:52:04.440
that that'll happen low i think the odds the odds of the black population getting their hands on that
00:52:11.460
key and finding out how badly they've been duped by democrats it's low because they have control of the
00:52:17.660
new sources but it could happen it's not impossible it's just unlikely
00:52:22.300
um here's the best funniest thing that i've heard in a while let's say all day uh there's a sports
00:52:33.700
commentator maybe you've seen him he appears on fox news every every now and then jason whitlock
00:52:38.280
he's uh he's black which is important to this story and i say this every time can we ever get to
00:52:47.440
the place where you can tell a freaking story without mentioning the race or the gender of the person
00:52:54.600
involved can we get to that point like oh i just crave the time when i don't have to add that and
00:53:02.620
he's black because it does matter to the story and what he said was uh that lebron james is the black
00:53:11.300
trump and the first time i heard it i thought no he's not how does that make sense how is lebron james
00:53:21.340
the the black trump and then he goes on to explain it and i go oh yeah he is the black trump it goes
00:53:29.020
like this um lebron this is uh jason willock quote lebron fashions himself as a dignified statesman
00:53:37.460
a role model political activist and champion of racial equality he is every bit as crude undignified
00:53:44.780
inarticulate as our sitting president james writes uh james meaning lebron writes and speaks at a third
00:53:52.160
grade level the athletic privilege he's enjoyed that's right you were not born with lebron james
00:54:02.300
physical abilities i wasn't i wasn't born with his physical capabilities he was born privileged
00:54:11.640
um and he that he's enjoyed since about age 10 has spoiled and pampered him the same way wealth and
00:54:17.700
privilege spoiled and pampered president trump jason whitlock argument made you are correct
00:54:26.760
now i would argue at some of his uh characterizations of our president but because specifically the part
00:54:35.760
about his vocabulary because i think the president's vocabulary is ideally suited for the way he
00:54:41.280
communicates with the public but the correlation and the analogy analogy accepted analogy accepted
00:54:49.720
uh and so i think i'll be calling lebron james black trump from now on because it's wonderfully delicious
00:54:58.440
all right that is my program for today and i hope you enjoyed it um so the the uh slaughter meter set
00:55:10.620
at 100 you should you should expect that this coming week will be really newsy a lot of news going to
00:55:19.220
come out and it could change everything so the slaughter meter could be anything by tomorrow but as of
00:55:25.980
today it's a hundred percent and that is my show for the day
00:55:32.140
all right periscope people have been signed off and i'm still here with you youtubers i like to spend a
00:55:43.320
little time looking at your comments um thank you it is the best part of the day i agree totally the best part
00:55:53.200
of the day all right that's all for me today and i will talk to you tomorrow