Episode 1153 Scott Adams： Court Packers, Immunity, Biden Blunders, Missing Coronavirus Data
Episode Stats
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Summary
In this episode, Scott Adams talks about his best part of the day, Apple's new 5G phone, the Supreme Court Nominee, and why you should watch a cult documentary about a cult called The Vow .
Transcript
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hey come on in here everybody it's time it's time for coffee with Scott Adams best part of the day
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I think so yeah I think so there's a little bit of question whether it was the best part of the
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day or really just top two top three but I think I think we have our answer day after day best part
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of the day and all you need to hold on let me put on my microphone this would be better
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something tells me you weren't hearing me as well as you should have
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how about now yeah better better isn't it yeah you thought this couldn't get better
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and it just did surprise yeah and all you need to do all you need to do to take this
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to the next level to see if you can find yourself a cup of mug or a glass of tank or chalice or sign
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a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee
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and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes
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everything better and I'm gonna ask you to savor it yeah savor it go
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well so today later today I will be appearing on msnbc you're not gonna want to miss that
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I don't know what kind of questions they're gonna ask me I'll be on airy milber show at the they give
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a start time that's usually well in front of the time I'm actually on camera but 6 p.m eastern time
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3 p.m california time and uh they'll be talking to me so we'll see how that goes
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you know I I think I told you I I uh started saying no to all uh interview requests recently
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so I don't have I don't think I have anything else on my calendar uh but when this one came in I thought
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to myself well this one's gonna be too much fun I'm gonna have to take this one um it has been
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brought to my attention that there's a very interesting piece of content on uh on hbo called
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the vow it's a multi-part uh documentary about a cult it's called it's called a cult called uh
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nxivim or something n-x-i-v-m I don't know how you pronounce it nix nexivim
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but uh I started watching it and I think I'm halfway through but uh I can already tell you
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you've got to watch this thing so I will be talking about it in the context of persuasion
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because the cult has some interesting techniques and it is really good documentary because the access
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they have where actually things are on film or on audio it's remarkable and if you really want to
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understand uh how influenceable or how persuadable people are or what they are willing to believe
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you got to watch this thing because if you think people are gullible or people can be uh fooled
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you haven't seen anything and I'll talk about the technique after I give you time to watch it
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so allegedly today there's a big announcement from Apple about their 5g phone
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and most of you are saying to yourself well that's nice a 5g phone it'll be a little bit faster
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than a 4g phone aren't we glad that each of our phones are a little bit better than the last one
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but I think you'd be missing the big story on this one if you didn't notice stocks were solidly up
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yesterday and at least part of the reason is probably Apple and part of the reason is when 5g
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becomes common now you've got you've got a little bit of a pipeline problem uh or a capacity problem
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so I don't know if your 5g phone is going to give you 5g speed right away every place you would use it
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but probably you know it'll probably start out pretty good and here's the thing you need to know
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about speed speed doesn't just help you do what you were going to do anyway but make it faster
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this kind of speed will change what you do you'll be able to do things that you couldn't do before
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uh I don't know if that means holograms or 3d or virtual reality worlds probably all of that
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uh I don't know if it means um just completely changing how you commute we almost can't see the
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ways this is see the ways this will change things let me give you my example if you have a
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let's say a car that can go five miles an hour you can use it to tool around locally but you're not
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going to take it very far but if you have a car that can go 100 miles an hour and it can you know
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drive for hours and hours then it's a whole different application it's not something you use around town
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it's something you can take a long trip with so this 5g stuff is way bigger than you think it is
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and it'll take a while for all the all the reasons that that's true to seep into your consciousness
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this is gigantic um so I tried watching the supreme court nominee hearings for acb uh amy coney barrett
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and I thought the whole thing was so worthless I couldn't really watch it is anybody trying to
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watch that thing I feel sorry for the uh the news networks that are covering it because they kind
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of have to cover it it's big news but there's literally nothing happening because apparently
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the democrats don't want to go too hard at the nominee because it might backfire but on the other
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hand they have to act like they're putting up a fight or they have to use their time to complain
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about the president or or obamacare so it turned into nothing but theater it we took this important
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government process and just turned it into you know kabuki theater or something it doesn't have any
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functional purpose at all and yet we're going to still do it that's the weird thing about people
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i suppose as the dilbert cartoonist i'm glad it happens but people will do things they know don't
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make sense just because of inertia or the way things are so that's what we're seeing i i would say that's
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worth about zero minutes of your time to watch those hearings because you know where that's going to go
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um are you disappointed with the republican uh and trump plans on health care
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i feel as if trump has a far better um at least opportunity to sell his health care preferred
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you know method if he would package it up better but the way it's being framed right now is that
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there's this thing called the aca or obamacare and that trump wants to kill it
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and that's the frame he wants to kill it and he doesn't have anything that has a name on it
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that's sort of packaged as its replacement so if you're a senior citizen or you're just somebody who
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thinks you're at risk of losing your health care what are you going to think about this situation
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you're going to say to yourself uh i kind of know what obamacare is because i think i have it
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and the republicans are offering freaking nothing now that's not true they are actually
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offering a bunch of stuff but they haven't packaged it in any way so when you think about it you don't
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think of it as anything you say well i'm glad that you know maybe there's something about drug prices
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going down and you know i'm happy that maybe the mandate won't be there and i might be happy about
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you know tele telehealth being you know allowed over state uh boundaries etc so if you thought about
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it there'd be a whole bunch of individual things that you liked but they don't feel like a replacement
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for obamacare it just feels like you're losing something and have i told you before that the threat
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of losing something always feels more oppressive than the opportunity to get something
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so the way human psychology works is that we're way more concerned about losing something we
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already have than we are excited about getting a new thing and that's very important to know about
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people so right now what uh what the uh trump administration is offering is less how would you
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how would you like to have less stuff now when they're not that is not an accurate description of
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what they're offering but it feels like it and they've sort of allowed that frame to to take
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form that there is this health care thing yeah it's not perfect but even that's going to go away
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that doesn't describe what would happen but that's the frame that has taken form and i think the
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republicans have to answer for that i would go so far as to say that if if uh if trump loses and let's
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say the republicans lose the senate as well and if it turns out that the reason that that happened
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was people were concerned about health care and they didn't think the republicans had enough of a plan
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i would say they earned the loss i would say the republicans deserve to lose under those conditions
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now i don't want that i don't want that to happen i would hope that they would do a little better job
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in the next next few weeks of saying what they would do versus the aca but at the moment
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they have framed it in a way they deserve to lose honestly because health care is uh kind of what's
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left now if they did lose because of that the irony would be that trump would have succeeded so well
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that he succeeded him himself out of a job meaning that the only thing left to talk about was the thing
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he didn't make enough of a you know an impact on because we wouldn't be talking about isis because he took
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care of it we're not going to be talking about the nafta because he renegotiated it we're not going
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to be talking about north korea because they seem to be sort of not a problem at the moment we're not
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going to be talking about uh renegotiating with china because that will be already underway we're not
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going to be talking so much about the you know even the border because the border looks like it
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became somewhat less of a problem because immigration slowed down i believe because of
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coronavirus so the so the president by doing a good job has reduced the number of topics we care
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about and even the economy is recovering well people would say well i think it's on the right path
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that probably do okay under a different administration so he really has narrowed the targets down to the
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one thing that he's not strong on which is health care he kind of needs to fix that and pretty quickly
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i would think um and as i say he there's plenty to talk about and here's what here's what i think
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the republicans have done wrong from the start and i've said this the democrats have a better goal
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but the republicans have a better system now i favor systems over goals so therefore i favor
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the republican approach but they haven't uh but they haven't framed it right they haven't packaged it
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right and here's how i would package it i would accept the democrats goal and i would say yeah even
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as a republican it is our absolute goal that everybody will have health care affordable health
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care we'll just get there in a different way and what we would hope is that we would take it from
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whatever it is now i don't know 12 percent eight percent what how many people don't have health care at
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the moment and i would say okay it's it's at this number whatever it is around 10 percent uh by the end
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of my fourth year i would like that to get that down to two percent if you heard something like
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that you might say to yourself okay they got a system they've got a goal that i agree with and
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bernie's got you know if you look at sort of the bernie type plans that biden might do or kamala harris
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might do it looks more like it's harder to get there it's like they don't have a plan to get there
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that makes sense math wise so i think so i think that's where the republicans could go
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um i've suggested on twitter that trump should run an ad saying that he's the only candidate for
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president who's immune to the coronavirus now of course there is a debate as to whether
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as to whether trump has any immunity or if he has immunity is it short term some say four months
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some say longer and i don't know that it matters because it would be so hilarious if he started
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tweeting that he's the only candidate who's immune to the coronavirus that the press would go nuts
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because they'd be no no that is not scientifically valid and the uh wish you could shop for doctors
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by procedure yeah that's a good comment um anyway so it would be funny if he did that i don't think he
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will uh a troll came after me today on twitter and said he can't wait to see how unhappy i am
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and you know what will i do if trump were to lose the election and and i replied back
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to the effect i don't think you know me very well i would get over that in about 10 minutes
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i don't have a i don't have a long recovery time from bad news you know some some bad news you have
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to work on you know it causes you work to get out of the hole you ended up in but i don't spend a lot
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time fretting about the past and the past happens immediately right you know if it turned out and
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i'm still predicting that trump will win but if it turned out that he didn't i'm pretty sure i would
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get over that in about 10 minutes that's just me you might have a different experience um biden
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apparently has revealed a little bit about his court packing ways and by the way is it just me
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or does court packing sound vaguely like an insult you freaking court packer doesn't it just have the
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right consonants and sounds to sound like an insult you freaking court packer you damn court packer you
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well it sounds like an insult and here's what biden said uh to give us another hint what he's thinking
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about he said quote i'm not a fan of court packing but i don't want to get off on that whole issue
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biden told cnn cnn affiliate i want to keep focused the president the president would love nothing better
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than to fight about whether or not i would in fact pack the court or not pack the court
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is is he the dumbest guy you've ever met in your life now i think he might have been smart at one point
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in his life uh yeah no fair with the uh the comments i'm saying there let let's let's let's uh let's not
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make it uh let's not make it gay jokes okay the court packer by itself sounds like an insult you don't
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have to bring it into another domain um so here he is saying he's not a fan of court packing
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he's very cleverly or stupidly i haven't decided which it might actually be brilliant because we
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might have reached a point where people are so irrational about everything that biden can actually
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just say something that he knows will be taken two different ways by two different groups so he can say
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something that will make republicans sound comfortable because he says i'm not a fan of court
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packing so if you're republican you hear that say not a fan of court packing okay okay he's obviously
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not a guy who's going to do court packing so i guess i feel comfortable about that so the republicans
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have something they can you know hold on to meanwhile the the progressives who would like some court
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packing they listen to the second part of it goes you know i just don't want to get off on that
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whole issue so uh i don't want him to fight about whether i would or would not pack the court so
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he's still leaving it open leaving it open but here's the real question why are you asking joe biden
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about court packing the only one that matters yeah i'm seeing in the comments you're way ahead of me
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does it does kamala harris like court packing because something like greater than half of voters
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including the people voting for who would vote for biden even most of them believe he won't make it
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four years so you're not really talking about biden's opinion you're talking about biden's opinion for a
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while plus kamala's kamala's opinion for whatever time is remaining or even the second term if if she
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were the one to run for the term after that so uh shouldn't we be really pushing on that
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you know i think we've heard everything we need to from joe biden but we kind of need to hear from the
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vp uh nominee and if we don't hear from that you have to assume that she's in favor of it or at least
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that there's some chance she's in favor of it uh which uh which should change people's minds
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all right there's a cdc study uh this will be a good indication of how useless data is
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the cdc studies shows that 85 percent of covid cases were people who often or always wear masks
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so what what's that tell you number one is from the cdc so you can trust that right no not anymore
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unfortunately we we've had a bad experience with experts recently so there's there's no such thing
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as a credible source of data anymore there there are still organizations that are sort of credible
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but not when they give you data it doesn't matter who it is anybody giving you data
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in 2020 is probably lying to you or incorrect uh and when i say probably i mean nine out of ten times
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so would you conclude that if 85 percent of people who get covid wore their masks what's the obvious
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implication all right draw a conclusion 85 percent of them wore masks and got it anyway therefore
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therefore go therefore masks don't work right it's good evidence it comes from the cdc
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so that's reliable right and 85 percent of the people with masks got it anyway so i guess those masks don't
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work is that what you have concluded well if you're bad at analyzing data you concluded that
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if you're good at analyzing data you might say something like uh julia pollack tweeted who is an economist
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what have i told you about economists economists are trained at understanding whether the right things
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have been compared and knowing and knowing whether a rational comparison has been made and she points out
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the following two problems number one um it's people who claim to have worn masks
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people lie people lie about how often they wear masks especially if they're being asked by somebody
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you know would judge you if a stranger calls you and says do you wear your mask often even people who
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don't wear masks often or don't think they wear them that often are going to be tempted to say oh
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yeah yeah i totally wear my mask pretty much all the time even if they don't that's one problem i think
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that's the smaller one and then the other problem is that that they're not accounting for the differences
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in risk and exposure exactly who wears a mask in the first place somebody who needs to
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do do people get coronavirus if there are people who are not around any virus the people who don't wear
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masks are far more likely to be the people who who rightly uh judge that they're not at much risk
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risk because they're maybe you know not spending time around crowds maybe they live in a town that has
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almost or no coronavirus risk you know maybe they're maybe they're young you know so they're not bothering
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but um correlation on this is probably backwards uh it's probably backwards now you can't tell
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but you have to allow this great possibility that the reason people wear masks in certain situations
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and they're less likely to wear masks another is because they know where the virus is at least
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statistically and so they wear the masks if they're in a place where there's a lot of virus now where are
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you likely to get a virus probably in a place with a lot of viruses uh i used to joke where i lived a few
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a few homes ago whenever i looked outside and i saw somebody going for a run
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they would almost always be overweight and i would say to myself that's weird does running make you fat
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because all the people i see running look like they're trying to lose weight so running must make you fat
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and then i and of course that's a joke the correlation is backwards the people who thought
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they needed to lose a few pounds when running so i i think that might be what's happening with this mask
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thing is that uh it's it's useless data in any case um california has an interesting situation
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apparently some gop entity has put up uh ballot collection boxes of their own
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account you didn't see that coming did you so there are these official looking ballot collection
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boxes that are not trying to look like government entities so they're not pretending they're the post
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office it's just it's obviously a private gop thing and you can just throw your uh throw your
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ballot in there do you trust that would you trust a private ballot collection box that's not a government mailbox
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if you trust that you're really gullible now i'm not going to say that the people who put them up there
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have bad intentions don't know i'm just saying that i wouldn't put my ballot in a private ballot collection box
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and if you're if you're dumb enough to do that you shouldn't be voting
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you're not smart enough to vote if you put your if you put your ballot in you know bob's collection box
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it looks like they spelled all the words right on the collection box looks good enough to me
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and so the government of california has declared that these things are illegal but here's the funny part
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how can it be illegal to have a box with some words on it
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it couldn't possibly be illegal because it's not pretending to do anything to be anything other than
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what it is it would certainly be illegal if it were pretending to be the u.s postal service
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right that would be illegal it would be illegal if they were you know claiming to be something they weren't
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but it's claiming to be exactly what it is a convenient way to have your ballot get picked up
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now i certainly wouldn't trust it but how is it illegal
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let me ask you this if i took a box you know just a box i could carry and i knocked on your door
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and i said hey you know i'm picking up some ballots and i can save you a trip to the mailbox
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if you like you can throw your ballot in my box that's in my hand and i'll carry it over to the
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mailbox for you i'll carry it to the post office would that be illegal well it depends on your state
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right if you live in a state where a ballot harvesting is illegal yes doesn't matter if you
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have a separate box doesn't matter if you knock on the door if your state says you can't bring
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somebody else's ballots in it's illegal but in california apparently that's not illegal it's not illegal
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to knock on the door and say can i take your ballot so the state of california is trying to claim
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that these little boxes that do the same thing as knocking on the door is just a little bit more
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efficient why knock on the door if you're not ready you know wait till you're ready you just put it in
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the box and the the thing that's hilarious about this is that i'm pretty sure democrats thought they
00:28:22.760
had the advantage with this ballot harvesting stuff and then the republicans do what republicans do
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what is it the republicans do that's better than what uh democrats do consistently
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they come up with better systems if you're gonna if you're gonna build something or manage something
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call a republican republicans are pretty good on systems they're pretty good at setting up a you know
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a mechanism you know figuring out how to make something work that's what they do right it's what they do
00:28:58.520
democrats their system looks a little bit like uh chop or chaz right looks a little bit more
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chaotic so you don't want to trust the democrats to set up a system uh so they set up they set up this
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thing and the very first thing that happens is the the republicans in california come up with a superior
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system and they get these boxes built and distributed all over and now they have now the government's
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gonna have to fight with what it means to be uh to to be harvesting balance and as far as i know
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they're gonna have a hard time declaring these things illegal because i don't think there's any law
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that says you can't have an accurately labeled box sitting in on your on your lawn if it's accurately labeled
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um so anyway that's hilarious on a completely different topic uh i follow a twitter account
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by the name of somebody named brian romele r-o-e-m-m-e-l-e if you want to look for it
00:30:10.920
definitely worth following he has lots of uh new technologies and you know what's what's coming next
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kind of tweets and one of them just just will blow your head off apparently now our hologram
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technology is so good that there's this device from let's see called uh port l hologram so you can
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follow them at at port port l hologram all one word port l hologram and you can see that they have
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this thing that's a phone booth sized in which inside the little phone booth sized
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hologram generator there is a full-sized human being who looks exactly like somebody you're standing in
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front of and and you know they're walking and talking and they they could be a deep fake or that
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or it could be a projection of somebody who's standing somewhere else and they're just being
00:31:10.040
projected as a hologram and uh it looks pretty amazing looks pretty amazing somebody says you
00:31:19.560
just looked and it looks terrible you you must be looking at something different than what i'm looking
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at but it is it will be difficult to explain how powerful this is and let me tell you a little story
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from my experience to give you a sense uh yeah my cat boo's doing a walk by i told you this a while
00:31:40.760
ago um microsoft has a version of their uh what do you call it enhanced reality where it places objects
00:31:50.200
in the room with you but you can't see them unless you're wearing the special goggles now if you're wearing
00:31:55.560
the special goggles you know you have a cool experience and here's the experience i had
00:32:02.600
when i tried them out in my home i saw a demo version before they were available i put on on the goggles
00:32:10.440
in my own home this is the key part my own home and i put them on and i turned on a um i think it was a
00:32:21.240
a mystery game so it was like a murder mystery game where there would be characters that would
00:32:27.720
interact in your space and there would be this murder mystery and you'd have to figure it out i
00:32:32.600
guess and i put the glasses on and i see it map the room it puts a a layer of uh like wireframe you
00:32:41.400
could see the wireframe going over your furniture and stuff in your room and you think whoa that's cool
00:32:46.760
it just mapped my whole room but here's the freaky part it didn't just map the space in your room
00:32:54.360
it knew what the things were it knew what a chair was uh my cat's gonna do another walk through if you
00:33:01.720
see a tail go by and and then it introduced characters into my living room and they walked
00:33:09.160
into my living room from a doorway from another room that it just happened to know was a doorway because
00:33:16.200
it mapped it those full-sized characters walked in front of me and sat down on my couch the couch was
00:33:25.400
l-shaped some of them sat in one l and some of them sat on the other part of the l and they set
00:33:31.400
something on my coffee table and it blew my freaking brain out now these particular uh um enhanced reality
00:33:41.800
creatures uh did not look like realistic people in other words they you could see through them a
00:33:48.760
little bit so you could tell that they were sort of shadow people but they were good representations of
00:33:54.680
people now when you take that over to the uh the hologram world imagine now the glasses are off
00:34:03.720
imagine doing this same experiment but no glasses it's your own room and maybe you've replaced the
00:34:10.600
light bulbs with this technology i doubt that's possible but imagine it wouldn't be too hard to
00:34:16.440
just put some sensors and lights in any room so your room could produce a photo realistic hologram
00:34:24.600
that could interact with your room it could walk around it could walk around until you see this
00:34:32.840
yes you don't know what's coming trust me there's some stuff coming that is bigger than anything you
00:34:40.600
could ever imagine and if you're worried about everything that's been invented already been invented
00:34:46.520
nope nope there's stuff coming that hasn't been invented i mean it has been but it hasn't been
00:34:53.640
commercialized so you've got some fun stuff coming some really fun stuff and i'm sure you're already
00:35:00.600
thinking about the applications all right uh and i i've said in a related matter i've said this before
00:35:07.720
but it's worth reiterating then no matter who wins in 2020 the presidency i believe trump will be our last
00:35:17.240
human president the last human president and what i mean is that ai will effectively be making our
00:35:25.000
decisions there will still be a person who gets elected but they won't have the flexibility that
00:35:31.320
past presidents had to use their judgment and their instinct and their hunches and whatever
00:35:36.840
and make decisions that are real leadership decisions rather in the future the algorithms will
00:35:42.680
decide what things we see and then we'll decide that those are the most important things
00:35:47.480
and if those are the most important things and we could tell you know who favors which part of the
00:35:55.480
policy for those most important things the leaders are just going to have to follow it now you say to
00:36:02.360
me scott scott scott the algorithms are not ai the algorithms are just some math and they're made by
00:36:10.840
people it's the people that decide what the algorithm does and then the algorithm does things but it's all
00:36:17.240
people the the algorithm is just a little tool it's no different than scissors and a computer it's not
00:36:23.880
important it's just the tool is that what's happening i i think that's where we differ let me give
00:36:30.840
you an example uh this week i was complaining that uh youtube had had demonetized one of my videos
00:36:38.840
earlier in the week and there was no reason given so i complained about it on twitter and to youtube's
00:36:47.640
credit they noticed i was complaining on twitter and they contacted me on twitter and said which you
00:36:53.720
know which video was it we'll do a manual review so i and they said you know it's not obvious what's
00:37:00.200
wrong with it you know they couldn't just look at it and oh it's obvious what you did wrong they said
00:37:06.120
we're gonna have to manually review it so i give them the link they manually reviewed and then this
00:37:11.080
morning they got back to me and they said it's the video is fine it's been re-monetized so problem
00:37:19.240
solved right here's the weird part the humans are not aware still what was wrong with it in other words
00:37:29.240
the algorithm flagged it took it you know demonetized it and never revealed its secret
00:37:38.920
for why now when the humans looked at it they had the ability to reverse it but do you think that your
00:37:44.920
video would have been reversed if you were not the dilbert guy if you didn't have half a million people
00:37:51.560
following you on twitter and you hadn't complained in public and you weren't leaving kind of a big
00:37:58.200
footprint would yours have been corrected i'd like to think that youtube is is so you know so on it that
00:38:07.480
it wouldn't matter who complained if they saw a complaint they would deal with it i'd like to think
00:38:12.600
that's true but i'll bet they wouldn't have seen it i don't think you could have reached them i just had
00:38:18.360
this little you know semi-famous person advantage that probably helped and if there were no humans
00:38:26.440
who know why i was demonetized if this were to happen to you who would who would have made the
00:38:32.520
decision to demonetize you no human being involved no human being would be involved in the initial
00:38:40.520
decision to demonetize you and no human being would ever explain it to you or fix it later you would
00:38:47.320
be too small now what would happen if the algorithm simply decided you know using its math that decided
00:38:55.640
to focus on some videos that had certain messages and not on others would the people who made the
00:39:03.400
algorithms be aware of it would they know exactly that this video was emphasized over this one
00:39:10.760
apparently not because they couldn't tell why mine was demonetized there's a little bit too much
00:39:17.720
complexity maybe the people who look at monetization are not the ones who programmed it they wouldn't
00:39:22.840
know what they're looking at anyway and if they asked it would be too complicated a conversation so
00:39:28.520
they wouldn't really know if you asked the programmer the programmers would probably and first of all
00:39:33.320
it's not like there's one programmer yeah it would be a team of programmers who probably only know their
00:39:39.000
little hunk their little piece of the algorithm just guessing that seems like a reasonable guess
00:39:46.200
i don't think anybody would be able to answer the question so the complexity is what gives
00:39:52.680
uh ai free will i'll just let that hang there for a little while the complexity is what gives ai in this
00:40:05.160
case the algorithms that decide what you see on social media is what gives it a free will
00:40:11.720
what do i mean by that free will in human beings is based on the fact that you can't predict what i'll do
00:40:18.280
that's it because i'm complicated my brain is complex so you can't tell based on what i'm
00:40:26.520
doing now it's too complicated you can't you can't get all the variables you can't determine all my
00:40:32.440
inputs you don't know what my cause and effect is you don't know my body chemistry you don't know my
00:40:37.560
history but if you knew that and if you had the galaxy-sized brain to look at all those inputs and figure
00:40:46.680
out how my brain is wired you could know what i'll do the only thing that gives me the impression of
00:40:53.400
free will is that even i don't know what i'm doing sometimes and you certainly don't know what i'm going
00:40:59.400
to choose so it is only my complexity the fact that you don't know what i'm going to do that gives you
00:41:06.200
the impression i have free will this morning when youtube told me that they they didn't know basically
00:41:15.880
uh they didn't have to say this directly it's obvious in context they don't know why the
00:41:20.840
algorithm did what it did it's too complex today was the day the ai was confirmed it already had it but
00:41:33.160
today was the day that it was confirmed to me the ai already has free will exactly like mine
00:41:43.080
it does what it does by formula and it will do that if it gave it the same inputs it would do the same
00:41:48.120
thing every time if it was exactly the same inputs but it's too complicated we can't predict it it's on
00:41:55.400
its own now it has free will i'll just leave you with that thought all right moving along uh here's an
00:42:04.120
interesting factoid disney world in florida is open with obviously you know masks and whatnot whereas
00:42:12.600
disneyland in california remains closed differences between the how the states are managing this this
00:42:19.720
is one of the best things that's happened in the coronavirus because this is going to be the closest we
00:42:26.680
will get to knowing which of the two methods worked so if the disney world that opened ends up with a good
00:42:36.680
result meaning very few people who get the virus because of it to the extent that they can determine
00:42:42.840
that um that's going to tell us something and if they cause massive infections because they opened in
00:42:50.040
disney world in florida well then california was the smart one i think we're going to find out
00:42:56.760
something pretty useful because it's pretty it's sort of unusual that you would have such a apples to
00:43:02.200
apples comparison between states so good to know uh you know if you said to yourself i think they should
00:43:10.440
both open up you know you could make that argument and i think disney is making that argument they think
00:43:15.320
they should open up but you should also be a little bit happy that you got a good comparison thing
00:43:21.240
here we're going to know something about disney world that's going to be really really useful i think
00:43:27.160
and i'm i'm guessing that we'll be able to track that somehow um don't you know that data is important
00:43:35.160
has anybody told you that we should make decisions based on data has anybody mentioned that lately in this
00:43:41.960
election certain uh this election cycle that's all you hear we must use the data we must listen to the
00:43:50.520
experts follow the data follow the data that's what all the dumb people say following the data would be
00:43:58.200
terrific idea if you had data following the data would be a terrific idea if you had the data and it was
00:44:07.080
reliable and it was right under those conditions and you knew what to do with it you know you knew
00:44:15.800
how to act based on that data but that's a lot of ifs isn't it here's a good example what is the only
00:44:24.520
data about the coronavirus that you would need uh need to know to really understand where we are and where
00:44:33.240
we're going what is the one bit of data you would need you might say to yourself a death rate nope
00:44:43.160
nope that's what i would have said a few weeks ago i would have said as long as you know the death rate
00:44:48.200
that's pretty much what you need to know in terms of you know where we're heading
00:44:52.520
um somebody else somebody smarter would say you need to know the hospitalization rate because first
00:44:59.000
of all the hospitalization rate can to somewhat some degree you know will predict the death rate
00:45:06.440
but also you need to know your hospital capacity you don't want to go over it and you you also get
00:45:13.880
your people who have long-term problems and they would be picked up in the hospitalization wouldn't be
00:45:19.800
picked up in the death rate so that's all you need right somebody says recovery rate nope
00:45:26.440
you don't need the recovery rate you don't need the hospitalization rate you don't need the death
00:45:34.600
rate it would be good to have and they have value so i'm not saying you shouldn't know them i'm saying
00:45:42.200
that the most important data which we could get it's it's achievable we could collect it we haven't
00:45:49.640
and it goes like this how many people are dying who are getting the right meds and the right treatment
00:45:59.240
right because that's all that matters if we're if we're throwing people in who are having problems
00:46:05.480
today with the average of how they were doing before we had good therapeutics back in the day when
00:46:11.960
we would stick people on ventilators and the ventilator itself would kill them that i think a lot of the
00:46:18.200
deaths were from ventilator misuse nobody's fault because nobody knew what to do in the early days
00:46:25.400
certainly definitely not any kind of medical malpractice or anything i'm not suggesting that
00:46:30.680
but we didn't know so can you tell me that you know or that anybody has collected the only data that
00:46:38.520
matters you went into the hospital and you got your remdesivir let's say you know you were at that stage
00:46:46.200
or you got your regeneron or you got your vitamin d you got your zinc and maybe your baby aspirin whatever
00:46:53.400
else maybe some azithromycin and that's the only data i want to know now on top of that i also need
00:47:02.200
to know availability of those meds so if the regeneron needs let's say two weeks or three months
00:47:10.120
or whatever it is to ramp up so everybody can have it in this country i need to know that because
00:47:15.960
that's telling me you know when when we can get to a better place same with the remdesivir so i would
00:47:23.000
want to know how many people are dying with the right treatment let's call it the trump protocol okay
00:47:31.240
just to keep it simple the same stuff trump got you have to assume is the good stuff right
00:47:37.640
so plus remdesivir i don't think he got that but he didn't need it
00:47:43.720
so if we don't know that do you know anything seriously do you know anything if you don't know
00:47:51.720
that it's the only number i think matters to how well we're doing when we're going to get out of this
00:47:58.920
how bad is it do we open up do we not open up all of our decisions are based on this one thing
00:48:06.040
how do we do today like today october 13th how would you do today if you went into the hospital
00:48:13.640
and you got the full trump protocol right because it's nowhere near the death rate of march and i feel
00:48:22.760
like we're making decisions based on march you know march through october death rates which would
00:48:30.760
be insane so um and somebody says the deaths are are grossly inflated but i would say that anybody
00:48:40.840
who got the trump protocol would be certainly confirmed to be somebody who's got a coronavirus
00:48:47.240
problem yeah i'm pretty sure by the time you get the full protocol they know that the coronavirus is
00:48:54.440
the thing that's going to kill you or not you know so um there is definitely a question about how the
00:49:00.920
deaths are counted but i think we could count the uh if you looked at the excess uh mortality
00:49:08.440
you'd be okay so if you knew excess mortality had gone down to normal because people who got the
00:49:16.520
treatments their death rate had gone down to a trivial number um that would be a lot to know all
00:49:24.600
right so you can love having data but if you collect the wrong data doesn't matter if you know as i mentioned
00:49:32.280
earlier if you're the cdc and you collect the data that 85 of the people getting the virus are wearing
00:49:38.360
the mask how did that help you in fact it probably hurt you because people would misinterpret the data
00:49:45.800
now they might misinterpret it in a way that actually helps you if it made them wear them
00:49:50.200
where no in that case i think they would wear the mask less so people would misinterpret it and
00:49:55.400
do the wrong thing data is very overrated data is usually wrong
00:50:02.520
that that's just the fact uh all data is usually wrong and wrong enough that it would change how you
00:50:13.720
deal with it um somebody says i'm laughing at your blind loyalty
00:50:22.520
to your cult leader um you must be new here that whoever's laughing at my blind loyalty to my cult leader
00:50:30.200
you must be brand new and you must have joined later in this very periscope because the entire
00:50:36.920
first part of the periscope was criticizing trump for health care not being you know packaged into a
00:50:44.120
good plan did you miss that part did you did you miss the part where i said it would take me 10 day
00:50:53.000
what is it about all of you democrats who can't see anything clearly if if you can see one thing
00:51:03.080
clearly it's that i'm not a slave to uh dogma if you don't get that you have missed the most
00:51:11.560
essential part of me that i could change my mind in a heartbeat on anything it's it's one of my uh
00:51:18.920
that's one of my advantages in fact it's the only reason anybody's watching me if if all i did was
00:51:24.840
get on here and do a blind obedience uh everything trump does is terrific if that's all i did i don't
00:51:32.920
think people would be too interested in coming back because i would just be another celebrity with a stupid
00:51:38.520
opinion it's only because i do have the facility to go in either direction that makes me worth watching
00:51:47.560
for my critic who i'm talking to right now uh you might also not know that i consider myself left of
00:51:56.280
bernie at least on the social stuff now i don't think that bernie is good at math so he doesn't know
00:52:02.280
how to pay for the things he wants and that's the problem i'm not going to be impractical i like his
00:52:08.840
goals have everybody you know have a good education and uh you know want everybody to to be free you
00:52:17.080
want to you know etc but uh but he needs to be able to figure out how to do it it's got to be practical
00:52:25.400
all right that is all for today and i will talk to you tomorrow
00:52:37.960
so it's so awkward when i try to hit that little x to end this and i can't hit it with my thumb
00:52:45.000
all right periscope is turned off we're on youtube only now live streaming
00:52:50.680
uh thoughts on kanye and joe rogan and his presidential ad i didn't see that does kanye
00:53:07.080
data are facts statistics or interpretation not true data are alleged effects if data were facts
00:53:16.600
we'd probably be in a lot better shape but usually data is out of context and it's just wrong
00:53:25.320
is local still thing oh yeah let me give you an update on locals so locals.com is a
00:53:33.080
platform um full disclosure i have a small investment in it as well and that's where i do
00:53:40.280
everything that you that i don't do in public i do there so there's a whole bunch of other content on
00:53:45.880
uh including micro lessons on success and being more being more effective as well as some content
00:53:53.560
that's a little too edgy to be on twitter or to be on uh youtube so uh locals is not only working but
00:54:01.000
uh is it's working embarrassingly well the the number of people who were willing to pay a subscription
00:54:08.360
to see extra content actually uh is humbling because way more demand than i could have imagined
00:54:16.360
and so far they seem happy the retention is excellent people are adding every uh every uh
00:54:22.840
week so yeah locals.com you go there and you can follow people like me people like uh greg gutfeld
00:54:29.400
um i think uh don jr is there a bunch of other people are going over and what you'll see there is
00:54:37.240
uh stuff you can't see in other places um somebody says you need a coupon code no you don't need a coupon
00:54:44.840
code um the the creators can create a coupon to give you a discount but you don't need that you can just
00:54:52.840
go there and sign up um and it's working great by the way and the community over there is just people
00:55:00.520
who want to be you know part of my community so i have basically no trolls imagine a social media
00:55:08.840
platform that because it's subscription it basically eliminates all of the trolls every bit of content and
00:55:16.440
other people can other people post things as well so i look at other people's content and it's exactly
00:55:22.920
what i want to see and it's because somebody who followed me kind of knows what i would like to see
00:55:29.480
and knows what other people who follow me would like to see and so it's this whole environment where
00:55:34.120
i only see stuff that's interesting and i wanted to see it it's the weirdest thing and there are no trolls
00:55:40.200
and and people pay a subscription fee to be there somebody says what is the seven dollar
00:55:46.120
subscription fee for it is for content that you won't see anywhere else but on top of that uh
00:55:53.080
there's and i didn't see this coming exactly there's a little bit of a patreon element to it
00:55:59.560
patreon allows you just to um essentially donate to creators that you would like to incentivize to do more
00:56:07.320
and so i think a lot of people just join locals because they're supporting my voice
00:56:12.520
uh and then they also give some extra content but uh the if you like robots read news my edgier uh
00:56:22.120
comic that i only do on the web um some of those i will tweet i'll put onto twitter so you just so
00:56:29.960
it's a access and advertisement for locals but uh most of the really naughty ones i just keep on locals if
00:56:37.800
it's if it's if it's too edgy i just keep it there all right that's all for now and i will talk to you
00:56:44.200
oh just to give you one more example of what is on locals yesterday i did a detailed um tour of my
00:56:51.720
office you know down to the down to the real details which some people would find interesting but