Episode 1157 Scott Adams: Q*NON, NXIVM, and BLM Cults, Fake Polls, Ridiculous Claims and Trump Optimism
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 25 minutes
Words per Minute
148.66193
Summary
Dilbert is back in the office, and he s here to talk about it. And the fires in California, and the lack of federal funding for relief efforts, and why it s a good thing that he s back.
Transcript
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Hey everybody, come on in, it's time, time for the best part of the day, yep, got a lot
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of complaints about yesterday, apparently yesterday I didn't tell you what you wanted
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to hear, and that was bad, apparently, but I'm glad you're here now, today will be much
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better than yesterday, oh, much better, in so many ways, let me count the ways, one, two,
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well, there's so many ways, I can't count them all, but how in the world, how in the world
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can we enjoy this day more than we're going to enjoy it anyway?
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Well, I can think of one way, and it's called the simultaneous sip, and all you need is
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a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel of
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any kind, fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee, and join me now for the dopamine
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hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better, it's called the simultaneous sip, and
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Ah, I love a sip from the top third of the cup, you know, when it's sort of hasn't been
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there very long, it's got that fresh, perfect warmth, oh yeah, that's how good a day today
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Well, here's a management tip for you, I know that's why you come here, for the management
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tip and tips, and it goes like this, you don't decide what product you're selling, the audience
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tells you, or your customer, tells you what business you're in.
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That was true when I started Dilbert, when I started Dilbert it was a generic comic strip,
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and only now and then he would be in the office in the early years.
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But people would email me and write to me, and they'd say, you know, we kind of like
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your comic when Dilbert is at home, but we really like it when he's in the office.
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And so many people wrote to me and said the same thing, put him in the office, put him
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in the office, that I changed the comic into a workplace strip.
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So that's a perfect example where I didn't decide what my product was, the customer, in
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They said, you're a workplace comic guy, make us a workplace comic.
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Likewise, when I started this periscoping stuff, I didn't really have a specific thing in mind.
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I didn't know if I was going to be talking about persuasion more than politics or anything
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But the audience said, yeah, give us some more of that, you know, non-traditional look
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And part of what ticked me off was the news yesterday that's already been reversed.
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But the news was that the Trump administration had declined a California request for emergency
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funding to take care of some of the forest fire damage.
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And my comment at the time was that it looked political because I didn't see a reason beyond
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politics, and it looked like it was revenge, maybe, for California not being supportive
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And I said at the time, if we don't hear a reason for why it was turned down, you have
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I said, if you don't give us good communication, we are allowed, and in fact, I would say encouraged,
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to assume the worst, that it was just political, at which point it's personal, because I
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live in California, and at which point I could not support a president, any president who
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was behind a purely political decision to punish my state, I certainly couldn't support
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Soon after I had my periscope, in my grumpy mood, we learned that the story wasn't quite
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The reason given, I guess it was FEMA that actually turned down the request initially,
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and FEMA's reasoning was that because the fires are still ongoing, they don't know exactly
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what the right amount is, and you should wait till the end.
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Because do you think California doesn't need any money until the fires are out?
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You sort of need the money as soon as you can get it.
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If it's a gigantic multi-month problem, you're not going to wait till the end before you start
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And so none of it made sense to me, but it was a typical bureaucratic decision.
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Apparently what happened is Gavin Newsom, governor of California, called President Trump and said,
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what's up with this, and the president said, what do you mean they, I'm just guessing what
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that conversation sounded like, and I think that the president said some version of, are
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Are you telling me FEMA turned down your money request?
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So let me fix that, because one thing you don't do if you're running for re-election, and it's
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just a few weeks before election time, one thing you don't do is something grossly political
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And so when I first heard the story that the money was denied, it didn't really make sense,
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because it's not like it's Trump's personal money.
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It was obviously better for Trump to give them the money, and any other state, any other
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The best thing to do three weeks before election is give them the money.
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That's always going to be the smart play, and sure enough, that's what Trump did, and so
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Now, that does leave the question of, I made the statement that if Trump loses the election,
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and we can tell that the reason is because of healthcare and coronavirus, I would say that
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It's not my first choice, because remember, we don't live in a vacuum.
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There's a choice, and that choice is not so hot.
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So I could certainly prefer Trump, but at the same time, he knows what his weakness is.
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He knows he's losing women, maybe because of healthcare, and he knows the coronavirus thing
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I mean, he knows that if he was more pro-mask, that he'd get better treatment by the press,
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So he's making choices, and here's the thing I would caution you.
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Don't assume that if you disagree with what Trump does as a political choice, how he presents
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himself, what policies he promotes, et cetera, don't assume that you and your wisdom, if you
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would not have done what he did, don't assume you're the one that was right.
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That's the tricky part with him, because he became president doing everything that the
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experts said you shouldn't do in at least half the country, maybe three-quarters of the
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Because I would think all the Democrats thought he shouldn't act the way he's acting in order
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to get elected, and I'll bet you at least half of Republicans probably said some version
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of, eh, he shouldn't be doing all of those things.
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We like, you know, the judges and the immigration stuff, but we think he should not be doing this
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Well, who became president of the frickin' United States?
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It was the guy doing all that stuff that all the smart people said you shouldn't do, right?
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So yesterday, Trump did a public appearance, a speech at a senior citizen facility in Florida.
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Now, I saw the crowd picture, and it looked like they put some attention into distancing.
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But not really, and I didn't see a, you know, a ton of mass compliance, and senior citizens
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Now, if you had asked me, and you said, Scott, I need your political advice.
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Should the president, who's been, you know, viciously criticized for putting people at risk
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with public events, should he have a public event with senior citizens in which they're a
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little bit too close, or at least it looks like that on the camera, and may not be wearing masks?
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It's a good thing you came to me with all of my wisdom.
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Because let me just break this down for you logically.
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And so you probably should not recreate your biggest problem in a gigantic visual feast for
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Wouldn't, if somebody came to you, if the president or his campaign came to you and asked you the
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same question, do you think you should do a rally with just senior citizens when they're
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the most vulnerable, and it's exactly your biggest problem, what would you have said?
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I don't think you would have said yes, would you?
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It seems so smart to say, well, no, why would you do a big visual presentation of your biggest
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That's exactly what you should be running away from.
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But again, Trump became president by doing everything you thought was wrong.
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That's, you know, what I write about in Winn-Bigley.
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A lot of the things that you think are accidents are technique, and he knows it.
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He knows how to make the public like him, at least enough of the public to get elected
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If you thought about the logic of having a seniors event during a coronavirus pandemic,
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You can't go beyond that to decide if Trump made a good decision politically or a bad
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It felt like he was giving attention to seniors, right?
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They were all, I assume, they were all well informed about what a coronavirus is.
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So it was a bunch of senior citizens in one of our freest states, exercising their freedom
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and their free will, taking a risk management decision, fully transparent, doing a little
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Maybe you would say not enough, but they were happy with it.
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Probably the people who were the least healthy, I'm guessing they stayed home.
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So he got energy, he got attention, he brought some love to senior citizens, a group that
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he needs to boost, and he was consistent with his story, which is that this is America and
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If you say he's putting people at unnecessary medical risk, you're like, whoa, that's a mistake.
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But if you say it's America, in America, everything we do has a risk.
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You play a sport, you get in a relationship, anything.
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We only live in a world where things are risky.
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The food you eat, basically everything has a risk.
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And the president is trying to train the country into accepting that risk.
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Now, if you throw a number on it and say it's 200x thousand died, it could be another 200,000,
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you might say to yourself, whoa, whoa, the numbers are so big.
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And if we choose to take that risk, knowing the numbers, but also knowing that opening the economy has a benefit that has to be counted as well,
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Is the president wrong for giving America the choice of freedom?
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How does it feel being told you have to wear a mask versus being told, you know, if you elect me, you're going to have freedom?
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The way it looks is bad risk management, putting people at risk.
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But when you see all those senior citizens who said, do you mind if I swear?
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There will be an unpleasant word coming up next.
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So turn down your sound, send the kids off to Zoom school, and it goes like this.
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What I saw was the president promoting freedom, standing in front of a bunch of senior citizens who earned freedom.
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And every one of those citizens who went there knew the risk.
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How do you feel about a whole bunch of senior citizens who said, I hear what you're saying.
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Now, if you tell me that Trump got the politics wrong, I would caution you that you've thought that before.
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And he is so tuned in to the average American, if I can say that, and so not on the frequency of the pundits.
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Because you really don't want the slick, packaged, pundit, appropriate, you know, Pete Buttigieg kind of guy.
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You know, if he had become president, I don't know.
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You know, he might not have the policies I prefer, but seems like a solid, rational guy with good judgment, etc.
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You know, I like him being pro-science and all that.
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But Trump just connects at a whole different level.
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At the moment, we have less visibility about who's going to win this than maybe any race ever.
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But even last year, when Trump was behind, there wasn't really more than two weeks of the entire campaign right around the pussy-grabbing part of that that I thought, maybe he won't win.
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The whole other time, I was just sure he would win to the point where I bet my entire career on it, and that worked out.
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This time, there's something really weird going on with the polls.
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The polls are so wildly not believable that it's either the—I'll tell you what it is, what it feels like.
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And if people were just afraid of consequences, you would expect there would be some, you know, distortion in the polls.
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But there's another effect on top of the shy Trump supporter.
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It's that sort of joke that I tell all the time.
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If you're a certain age, usually you're a white guy, but I don't think that's necessary.
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But, you know, there's this kind of joke that dad jokes are these sort of obvious, straightforward.
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What would be a better practical joke than distorting the polls so badly that every Democrat went into Election Day thinking,
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As funny as 2016 was, it wasn't a practical joke.
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Nobody said, hey, let's play a joke and fool the pollsters.
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But 2020, when you see the gap growing to just really a ridiculous level, sort of ridiculous, the level.
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I mean, it looks so not true that it just seems like either the pollsters are playing some kind of a fundraising game.
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Because there are two possibilities here, and they might actually both be true.
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One is that the polls are intentionally rigging the polls.
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Not all of them, but enough of them to change the average.
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And that they're doing it specifically for fundraising.
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Because if you thought Biden was going to lose, would you give money to him?
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Because you'd say, yeah, it's a waste of money.
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But if you think he's on a glide path to winning, and all he needs is a little extra money to make sure that he nails it down,
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well, then your wallet gets a little looser, right?
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If I put money into this campaign, I can really, it's like insurance to ensure he makes it.
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And make sure that the Congress gets in there so that when he's in there, he'll have a Congress that can do what he wants.
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If I had to guess, I would say that the main reason the pollsters are faking the polls,
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and I feel like we can just state that as fact at this point, right?
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We can just state that as fact, that these are rigged polls.
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Not all of them, but it looks like some number of them.
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And sure enough, Biden is having the biggest fundraising bonanza of all time because people are smelling the victory.
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All right, so that's one thing, and I think that's actually happening.
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But the dad joke explanation could be happening at the same time.
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And when the pollsters are calling, it might not be just people who don't want their name known to an anonymous pollster.
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Because, indeed, probably, you know, as a percentage, there can't be that many people who are afraid of it.
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But how many Trump supporters, if they saw the opportunity, would go for the dad joke?
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And the dad joke is lying to the pollster and say, yeah, yeah, I'm a big old Biden supporter.
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And how about those Democrats running for Senate?
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And if Trump pulls this off, and at the moment, I still believe he will.
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If he pulls this off, it will be, no doubt about it, the world's biggest and best dad joke.
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Now, I'm not saying that moms aren't getting into the fun.
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I'm just saying it has that feeling of a dad joke.
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I don't know how you could be a Republican and resist the temptation to lie to the pollster just for the dad joke.
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Even Jen O'Malley, the Biden campaign manager, says that the polls are bullshit.
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So even Biden's campaign says, don't believe these polls.
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I don't know what's going on with these polls, but our internal polling doesn't show what they show.
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Plus, you don't want to be fooled by the national numbers.
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Let's talk about that nodding woman who was behind Trump at his town hall.
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Now, I have to admit, I watched the town hall, and I never noticed the woman behind him,
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And so it took me a while to sort of catch up to the story.
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Persuasion-wise, it is a great idea to have somebody who looks like the audience you're trying to persuade
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So if she wasn't put there as a plant, and I think she said she wasn't,
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I think she says, I believe I saw a little snippet of an interview in which she believed that
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because she's black, that they put her behind the president because she would not be happy with him.
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And that is a strong technique, because we're all very influenced by other people.
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So if you see the president talking, and over his shoulder you see somebody that feels like you,
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it's like, oh yeah, I'm sort of like that person.
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And they're nodding along, oh yeah, oh yeah, uh-huh, uh-huh.
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So persuasion-wise, it's a smart play if they can reproduce that.
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Biden apparently won the TV ratings for the town hall.
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Because, number one, if you had a choice of seeing yet another minute of Trump,
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versus Biden, who you don't see as much, one of them is a novelty.
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And one of them, you're going to feel like you just saw three versions of him in the last 24 hours.
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So some of it is, and I admit that I was feeling this at the time,
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I was thinking, maybe I'll watch Biden, because I just don't see as much of him.
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Some people watch car races just to watch the wrecks.
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I might have watched Biden just to see if he would decompose.
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Because you kind of know what Trump is going to do.
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He's going to say three provocative things that make news.
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But otherwise, it's going to be exactly what you think it is.
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But with Biden, you've got this extra level of mystery.
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So I can see why he would be more interesting in this specific case.
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But I want to add this conspiracy theory to the mix.
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When I turned on the TV to look for the Trump town hall,
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I knew it was on NBC, and I know what number NBC is on my dial.
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Anyway, so I turn on Comcast, and I go to the channel guide.
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I see the Joe Biden town hall, or whatever it was labeled.
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NBC said local news in a tiny little slot that would be too short for a town hall,
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followed by local news, followed by local news, followed by local news.
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Now, I, of course, eventually, you know, just, I said, screw that.
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It's probably on MSNBC, but I don't remember where that is on my cable.
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And I'm not going to go looking for it, because it's already time to watch it.
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So I picked up my phone, which I knew, you know, with two buttons I would be on NBC,
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If you were sort of ambivalent, you didn't know if you were going to watch Trump or Biden,
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If you only saw the Biden one, and you're a senior citizen,
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So I heard, I got some pushback when I said that on Twitter.
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Somebody said, Scott, everybody knows how to find NBC.
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I think some people, maybe 2%, whatever, probably made a difference.
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I'm curious about this, so I want to see your answers in the comments.
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They don't say a frickin' true thing the entire time.
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But are you aware that almost everything that Trump says is not true?
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That almost everything he claims about Biden is not true?
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But when you watch Biden, it's also true that basically 100% of what he says looks like a lie.
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and then there's the stuff that looks like maybe he won't really do what he's saying he would do.
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But do you get the impression that neither of them are doing anything even in the ballpark of truth?
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If they were not lying completely about everything,
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they just wouldn't be a good person for the job.
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If somebody tried to run against either one of those candidates by only telling the truth,
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So when you see Biden, he lies at almost 100% of what he says is a lie.
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And then Trump, of course, is still Trump, and he uses his hyperbole, et cetera.
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Now, I have said from the beginning that somebody says no.
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So seriously, there's somebody watching the Trump campaign speeches,
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and you're not finding anything untrue in that?
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Because if you think it's only the people on the left that don't know what's going on,
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you're just having the same problem as the left, but you're having it on the right.
00:31:30.660
For example, well, you don't need any examples.
00:31:38.200
Let me just say that the major claims by both sides are probably,
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if I had to put a number on it, I'd say 75% false in both cases.
00:31:49.160
But they tend to be directionally true, at least in Trump's case.
00:31:54.480
I think in Biden's case, they are not directionally true.
00:31:57.440
For example, Trump has lots of claims about the Bidens being swampy.
00:32:09.320
But is the general idea that the Bidens have some swampiness to explain, is that true?
00:32:17.600
I would say certainly the laptop emails confirm that, yeah, there's some swampiness there.
00:32:23.960
And the president is right in theme, he's right.
00:32:31.140
Biden does the fine people lie about Charlottesville.
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because this president has been very good for the African-American community,
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and there's no evidence of whatever that lie would suggest.
00:32:50.680
So, Biden is a little more likely to just plain lie,
00:32:59.360
and even if something doesn't pass the fact-checking, which happens,
00:33:03.280
it's still in the general idea of where the country would like to go,
00:33:09.440
Now, you could probably come up with a counterexample to that,
00:33:13.880
But you really need to check yourself if you said,
00:33:18.440
I've never heard Trump say anything that wasn't true.
00:33:21.740
There really is a lot there that's not exactly true.
00:33:30.820
That doesn't mean he isn't the best president we've ever had.
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And by the way, I would say, I heard somebody say this recently.
00:33:43.240
But somebody said that even if President Trump did not get re-elected,
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his one term would be the greatest one term of any president.
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And I think that's a completely defensible statement.
00:34:00.840
I mean, even if the only accomplishment had been the judges,
00:34:09.020
You know, beating ISIS and trade deals and, you know,
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getting rid of regulations we didn't need and all kinds of stuff.
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he will go down as the most successful president.
00:34:22.740
The coronavirus will be a stain, but the rest of the stuff looks good.
00:34:30.080
I wonder if Trump will ever do a debunking speech
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where he just debunks the lies that Biden tells.
00:34:38.120
I'd love to see him just do a speech where he says,
00:34:40.920
look, here's what Biden says about the fine people hoax.
00:34:44.960
Now let me read the transcript exactly as it happened and Google it.
00:35:05.600
You're not getting an honest candidate or even close to it.
00:35:49.960
But this is another case of him building the wall.
00:36:39.140
what is your response to the New York Post story