Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1167 Scott Adams： Trump is on a Glide Path to Reelection, NXIVM Update, Philly Riots Help Trump, Supreme Court

00:00:00.000 hey everybody come on in it's time time for scott adams and coffee coffee with scott adams

00:00:13.920 um i'm not gonna call you george that doesn't make sense to any of you who don't follow the news

00:00:21.480 but trust me today is gonna be a good one oh yeah you're gonna learn something today

00:00:27.580 i'm gonna give you a little persuasion lesson tell you what the president is doing right and boy is he

00:00:33.660 doing a lot right this week he's killing it good timing for it but to enjoy this to its complete

00:00:42.760 and utter total capacity all you need is a cup or mug or glass a tank or chalice or stein a

00:00:51.620 canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind and fill it with your favorite liquid i like

00:00:56.760 coffee and join me now for the dopamine hit of the day the uh thing that makes everything better

00:01:05.040 the unparalleled pleasure it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go

00:01:11.120 ah

00:01:15.400 well here's the good news apparently there's a some kind of a meteor kind of a deal

00:01:26.180 called uh psych p-s-y-c-h-e and nasa is planning to visit it is it an asteroid or i mean it's an

00:01:37.160 asteroid i guess and uh nasa is going to visit it in 2026 right around the corner but here's the fun

00:01:46.520 part about it uh here's the value of the the asteroid now given that it's made of metal

00:01:55.100 and it looks like nickel and something else and it's valuable metal and just to give you a just to

00:02:03.180 give you a preview of what it's worth to mine these asteroids all right the entire global economy

00:02:11.680 the gdp of the entire earth just to give you some comparison is 142 trillion dollars

00:02:18.940 all right that's the whole earth this uh one asteroid is worth an estimated 10 000 quadrillion dollars

00:02:29.360 quadrillion what the hell is a quadrillion is it four times a trillion uh that doesn't sound right

00:02:39.800 but when you're talking 10 000 quadrillion that's some serious money and it means that if elon musk

00:02:48.640 starts mining one of these asteroids uh starts mining one of these asteroids first elon musk could be

00:02:56.540 not just the first trillionaire he could become the first quadrillionaire

00:03:05.020 somebody says it's a thousand trillion is a quadrillion which makes sense makes a lot more sense than

00:03:12.600 four trillion all right so that's how much uh money is up there in space so if you think uh elon musk

00:03:19.960 and jeff bezos are crazy to want to start up some space operations that's why somebody is going to be

00:03:29.120 a quadrillionaire do you know how much you can buy with a quadrillion dollars nobody does um but the

00:03:39.660 whole planet i guess so do you think the democrats are starting to get worried this week because they

00:03:46.400 had a good run you know the polls were overwhelmingly biden favorable for months and months but that seems

00:03:55.600 to be tightening and here's the thing that i think democrats are starting to notice number one

00:04:03.400 the supreme court is pretty packed wouldn't you say now that there's a three-person majority

00:04:11.220 of conservatives on the court because if you didn't hear amy coney barrett got

00:04:17.380 sworn in yesterday so she's the new member of the supreme court

00:04:22.580 and if you are a democrat doesn't that take away your momentum for voting

00:04:30.740 a little bit because it feels like it's already too late and the only thing you could do now is

00:04:38.700 pack the court and sure there will be some democrats who say yeah pack the court but i think at least

00:04:45.520 half of democrats will say to themselves uh won't that destroy the country because it would

00:04:54.040 it would so a lot of democrats are going to say i hate this supreme court makeup but i don't want to

00:05:03.000 ruin the republic uh aoc recently tweeted that it's uh it's expand the court she doesn't want to call

00:05:12.300 it pack the court expand the court and i tweeted back that if you expand the court how do you do that

00:05:20.580 without shrinking the republic because the republic would no longer be what it was designed to be

00:05:28.280 which is you know a division of power separation of powers you would get rid of that the moment you

00:05:34.400 pack the court the most important concept behind the entire country and the constitution would evaporate

00:05:41.500 because whoever became you know president and also had the senate would just pack the court again

00:05:48.440 so you would have packing and packing until you had hundreds of people on the court

00:05:53.300 because why wouldn't you really why wouldn't you if if all it is is a power grab

00:06:00.600 you should expect that people would grab the power but it's possible that the court would never

00:06:06.040 you know never change again if democrats got in power and packed the court maybe they just

00:06:11.640 keep it that way all right so first of all democrats at least half of them probably have lost

00:06:18.560 a little incentive to vote because it's already too late for this nomination and they might not want

00:06:25.200 to pack the court because that would destroy everything but so that so i think uh but i also think it

00:06:33.100 it trains the democrats to accept defeat meaning that this is a loss for them that there's another

00:06:41.780 supreme court nominee uh you know uh judge who's conservative and losing is something you can get used to

00:06:50.220 meaning that you start to expect it so now you have this is the pattern that's starting to form

00:06:57.200 you know democrats are worried about 2016 happening again and it feels exactly like it is and i'll talk

00:07:06.280 about that in a minute but they've got that pattern in their mind okay 2016 oh my god it's looking like

00:07:12.420 that again we lost before we might lose again and we just lost on the supreme court so you can you can

00:07:22.120 train people to lose when i used to play tennis there was a phenomenon which i think we all we all

00:07:30.000 noticed if you played a lot of tennis that you could play somebody who seemed relatively close to your

00:07:35.260 level of skill but sometimes one would just always win and i think a lot of it has to do with just

00:07:43.380 expecting you know the one who is used to winning expects to win again the one who is used to losing to

00:07:49.500 this very same opponent just sort of gets used to losing and you you can get into a mode where your

00:07:56.880 brain just causes you to lose because you're sort of thinking that's what's going to happen

00:08:01.120 and your your brain is guided toward whatever you focus on good or bad if you focus on bad stuff

00:08:08.120 happening your brain will eventually in a million small ways guide you toward that thing you were

00:08:14.120 thinking about if you think about positive things your brain will in a million ways guide you subtly and

00:08:20.980 nudge you toward that positive thing it's a pretty well understood phenomenon so i wonder if the democrats

00:08:27.280 have a little little bit of the the weight of losing in their minds so that's a that's a thing now imagine

00:08:38.300 this imagine you're a democrat you wake up every morning this week and you see that president trump

00:08:45.640 is barnstorming all of the you know most important electoral college locations he's got gigantic rallies

00:08:54.900 there's flags there's motion there's energy he's doing everything right he's reproducing his his technique

00:09:03.060 from 2016 which we all believe worked against hillary he outworked her he's doing it again and the champion

00:09:11.240 that you chose to run against this force of nature is decomposing in a darkened basement

00:09:21.140 while you watch trump do all of this how does that make you feel after you watch the supreme court go

00:09:29.840 away too not good right but i don't think it fires you up i think it just it's a gut punch i think it just

00:09:40.200 takes everything out of you if i had to guess you know i'm sure that voting will be gigantic this year for

00:09:47.000 both democrats and republicans but republicans don't have that counterweight republicans only have

00:09:54.980 benefit it's like oh i want more of this i'm happy let's go get more of this happiness i'm celebrating

00:10:03.580 let's celebrate some more that's pretty strong motivation whereas the democrats got a whole lot of

00:10:10.440 weight on them psychologically and no joke this is a pretty serious mental health issue very serious

00:10:20.560 mental health issue and if we treat it like a joke we could really get stung by it a lot of people are

00:10:26.300 going to get hurt it's a real thing that people are in psychic emergency really i mean it's hard to

00:10:35.460 it's hard to uh overstate how bad this is going to be for a lot of people's psychological well-being

00:10:42.380 it will be funny because let's let's be honest a lot of you found a lot of entertainment

00:10:49.560 from 2016 and people screaming at the sky and and you know i'm gonna be honest i wouldn't mind seeing

00:10:59.540 it again you know i can't be proud of it but i wouldn't mind it all right correct me if i'm wrong

00:11:07.900 but and i might be wrong about this because i don't think i've considered everything but it feels

00:11:13.940 to me that a hundred percent of the signals are pointing toward trump except the polls we all believe

00:11:22.740 are fraudulent is that true i'll go through the list and see if i left anything out number one

00:11:30.300 enthusiasm all trump right so if you're looking at all the intangibles that are not part of the

00:11:37.320 polling enthusiasm trump signage trump there's a some kind of statistic that says that if you win

00:11:46.580 the primaries as a sitting president and you get over 75 of the votes in the primaries as a sitting

00:11:54.900 president you win re-election almost every time so trump of course crushed that that measure he got

00:12:03.640 way more than 75 so that signals a victory trump is in roughly the same place in the polls as he was

00:12:11.060 against clinton actually maybe a little better that signals victory uh you see trump surging at the

00:12:19.640 right time and you know doing his his heavy work thing at the end of the the cycle that strongly

00:12:27.000 suggests good things for trump new voter registration i understand is heavily republican

00:12:33.560 that signals trump ground game looks better because the biden people stayed home the trump people

00:12:41.180 knocked on doors that signals trump um biden isn't even going to the right states i guess he's going to

00:12:49.320 georgia he's not even trying um so you got trump going to all the right places you've got biden going

00:12:58.800 to a place that sort of doesn't even make sense and he's not even going to many places you've seen the

00:13:04.980 level of black support for trump which by itself if if there were no other things you were looking at

00:13:11.480 and you just saw the level of black support for trump uh it's going through the roof that alone would

00:13:18.420 tell you he's going to get re-elected now i know that he may have lost suburban women etc but i'll tell

00:13:25.360 you this amy coney barrett thing has a lot of levels to it sure the democrats don't like it because she is 1.00

00:13:34.480 conservative but if you're a suburban woman and you're watching amy coney barrett are you impressed

00:13:43.740 even if you hate her politics aren't you just impressed as hell just about her as a human being

00:13:50.820 as a as a mother as a now a servant to the public impressive as hell and who nominated her to the supreme 0.91

00:14:00.320 court a woman who looks like the model of suburban women trump i feel as though trump is going to get

00:14:10.520 some suburban mother appreciation for this pick even though it was political and even though she's 0.68

00:14:18.460 conservative there's something about it that just feels like it's violating whatever they thought

00:14:25.420 about him sexism or whatever so it counters that a little bit so he's got that going for him he's got

00:14:31.400 the incumbent advantage in general incumbents normally get elected no matter what and like i said that

00:14:38.620 the motivation of packing the supreme court i think is sort of split on the democratic side

00:14:45.880 whereas the enthusiasm for trump among republicans it's sky high it's sky high i just don't know the

00:14:55.220 democrats have that and of course biden is decomposing and everybody can see that i think it was joe rogan

00:15:00.780 who said this on the kanye interview maybe he had this great physical analogy he said that voting for

00:15:08.340 biden was like uh going for a hike in the woods at night and you brought a flashlight with a dying

00:15:15.740 battery and it probably won't work out well for you the the imagery of a flashlight with a dying battery

00:15:24.860 as you go into the woods at night is one of the all-time best you know descriptions of that

00:15:30.940 all right um let's talk about trump's um persuasion strategy i'm going to try to do this without my

00:15:40.500 camera falling over let's do this and bear with me for a moment as i'm going to talk to my amazon

00:15:48.180 digital device you might want to cover your device's ears for a moment and it goes like this

00:15:55.460 alexa turn off studio

00:15:58.380 just fixing the lighting so you can see me worse but my whiteboard's a little bit better

00:16:07.520 so trump is doing his same 2016 uh technique of going to lots of rallies and getting a lot of energy

00:16:14.940 and here are all the things he's doing right so these are all um persuasion techniques that are

00:16:22.760 baked into what he's doing and it's it's really good it's like really really really good it's like

00:16:29.060 a double plus good let me run through it so first of all he's setting up just a deadly contrast

00:16:36.400 because biden's problem is he's looking sort of low energy and he's hiding and he's in his basement

00:16:42.280 he's not doing much so contrast is one of the most important concepts in persuasion the bigger the

00:16:48.720 contrast the better and trump has made the the biggest contrast you could ever achieve with the

00:16:56.460 the least visible candidate of all time no doubt about it with the most visible candidate of all

00:17:04.260 time highest energy versus lowest energy bravest versus least brave amazing contrast right now there's

00:17:14.180 always contrast but because he's making us focus on it with these rallies it just takes that contrast

00:17:20.580 into a whole new new level there's a recency bias meaning that whatever is happening at the moment

00:17:28.180 is more important to us than anything that happened last year and because time has become distorted under

00:17:34.960 the trump era the recency bias is way more important meaning that we don't remember what happened two weeks ago

00:17:43.060 you know and and if you're going to ask me what happened in february i think there was some kind of

00:17:49.260 impeachment thing i don't know i don't remember that was a long time ago but i certainly remember what's

00:17:57.780 happening today i know what's happening this week so by trump sucking up all of the news cycles with 0.61

00:18:04.660 these rallies which are nothing but positive it's just one positive funny celebration after another

00:18:11.220 it's got flags and motion and energy and all this stuff that's his that's what he's putting in your

00:18:18.100 head and that's what will be there recently so the recency bias is all trump right now he's doing

00:18:26.260 nothing but positivity and he's not only leaving it all on the field a phrase he actually used by the way

00:18:33.700 um he's a happy warrior and the happy warrior thing is a perfect finisher it makes sense to complain and

00:18:44.740 be negative and scare people you know during the the build-up to the election but you need a finisher

00:18:50.820 you need a you need a frosting on that cake that that leaves people with a with a good feeling toward the

00:18:57.060 end and man is he killing that he's just killing it he just you know from the from the point of the

00:19:04.260 last debate where trump decided to go let's say presidential i hate to use that phrase because

00:19:11.300 it's somewhat subjective but he decided to become more of us uh presidential looking tone it down kind

00:19:18.340 of candidate and then he brought positivity into the rallies and it's just nothing but good news

00:19:23.540 and his recent was great he's taking all the attention of course because he's getting tons

00:19:30.660 of coverage especially when biden is hiding he's got a social proof like crazy going on social proof

00:19:38.500 is that we're all influenced by people around us especially people who are like us so if you see if you

00:19:45.540 turn on the rally and you see all these people for trump how different is that from what you

00:19:53.380 thought for the last four years yes he's always done rallies but couldn't you kind of write them

00:19:59.220 off as okay he just went to a place that there were a lot of supporters but what is it what does it

00:20:05.860 do to your impression of how um acceptable it is to support trump when you see these rallies and many

00:20:14.500 of them are spontaneous a lot of the a lot of the rallies if you can call it that don't even have trump

00:20:20.660 you know the boat rally there's no trump there they just organized in rallies the truck rallies

00:20:26.660 no trump they just organized their own rally and when you see these spontaneous gigantic

00:20:34.100 expressions of pro-trump and they're happening all over the country in different places at the same time 0.90

00:20:39.780 suddenly your thought that you can't support trump because you know he's sort of a monster and

00:20:46.660 everybody's saying bad stuff about him is is really affected by seeing all these people who are okay

00:20:53.380 with vocally and publicly supporting trump it makes it easier for you it gives you a fake because

00:21:02.340 in other words you can say to yourself well it can't be that bad if all these people are willing to do

00:21:08.180 all this publicly so the social proof is gigantic you've got a lot of flags involved with trump rallies uh

00:21:18.100 the book persuasion by chialdini talks about how they some researchers did some tests where they would

00:21:26.580 show images of the american flag to people before they voted and they found that if they show you the flag before

00:21:34.180 you vote you're far more uh republican biased in minutes we're talking about a change that happens

00:21:42.500 almost right away so the american flag makes you feel more republican now i don't know why you know it

00:21:50.820 could be just the republicans favor the flag more than other people but you see that many flags and all these

00:21:57.940 rallies and of course the news is covering it all that to persuade you it gets you in the mood for

00:22:04.020 republican voting and it's and it is a measurable effect and it's not me just talking crazy talk it's been

00:22:11.700 studied specifically the flag and specifically voting for republicans that exact thing has been studied and he's

00:22:20.260 killing it on that uh reciprocity one of the most important concepts in persuasion that's why a

00:22:27.220 salesperson will do you a favor might be a small one buy you some tickets to the show or something

00:22:34.260 because once somebody does you a favor you are automatically wired to return the favor when you

00:22:41.140 see trump working this hard to do something which clearly is entertainment and he entertains at the rallies

00:22:49.380 that's why he does it there's not like a lot of information being uh transmitted it's entertainment

00:22:55.140 and when you see how hard he's working for the base what does that do to the base when somebody works

00:23:03.060 hard for you you say i gotta do something in return and all he's asking me is to vote that's it

00:23:13.940 that's not even hard so the reciprocity thing is gigantic it's really powerful we owe him a favor

00:23:22.820 because he did so much to entertain us to show up to to get our energy up to get the the policies that

00:23:31.140 you wanted etc you owe him and he's working hard and you appreciate that and you respect that everybody

00:23:38.020 responds to hard work it's universal you will like anybody who works hard i in fact you've you've you've

00:23:45.700 seen me model this actually when i've said good things about um aoc when i've said good things about

00:23:52.340 um oh who is the uh actress who is very pro-biden uh alissa milano um i say good things about both of

00:24:04.180 them although i disagree with their opinions on just about everything but they work hard they put in the

00:24:11.620 the time they they do the effort aoc with her wearing out her her athletic footwear and um with 0.97

00:24:21.220 you know other people you just see them putting in the hours and that means something to me that

00:24:25.140 gives me some respect energy of course is always uh persuasive people are drawn to energy trump is

00:24:33.460 showing the energy like crazy and and you are just naturally drawn to it especially if somebody is

00:24:39.220 trying to be a leader pattern spotting very important um if you think there's a pattern

00:24:47.060 and it influences you you will subconsciously start um working toward that thing so if you think that

00:24:55.700 this year is going to look like 2016 you don't know it will but you suspect it you worry about it

00:25:03.940 you fret about it you think about it it's the thinking about it that matters and you're thinking

00:25:08.580 about this 2016 pattern where trump comes from behind in the polls anyway and and wins at the

00:25:15.700 last moment what does that do to you well if if you're talking about what it does to any one person

00:25:23.940 probably nothing they're just going to vote whoever they're going to vote for but remember we're

00:25:28.260 talking about large groups of people and you only have to move a little sliver of them to make a

00:25:33.700 difference in this election and i believe that that that pattern which is in all of our heads democrats

00:25:40.420 and republicans will make republicans show up to satisfy the pattern and will make democrats who might

00:25:48.740 have been on the fence about whether it's worth voting or not worth voting maybe just find something

00:25:54.020 else to do that day now if you ask them later hey did you change your behavior because of the 2016

00:26:01.220 pattern that's in your head everybody would say no they'd say no what's that got to do with anything

00:26:07.380 this is this year i simply made a decision that i wouldn't vote because i had this important other

00:26:13.380 thing i had to do so that's the way it would play out in people's heads but the the effect would be

00:26:19.540 you'd see you know one percent some small percent maybe one percent of the people would just act a

00:26:24.740 little differently because that pattern is rolling around in their head i talked about the fake because

00:26:32.020 watching trump work so hard as contrast to biden is just one more fake reason you can give yourself

00:26:39.540 to do the thing you wanted to do anyway and sometimes you need that to just give you that little extra

00:26:45.860 nudge to get you off the fence people who wanted to vote for trump but maybe they were concerned about

00:26:52.820 this or that something that he did or might do but then you see how hard he's working

00:26:58.660 compared to biden and that gives you another fake reason it's like ah i gotta have the guy who works

00:27:04.420 hard i mean i'm hiring somebody you're literally hiring for all practical purposes an employee are you

00:27:12.260 gonna hire the employee who stays in this basement it's like just a perfect reason if people need a simple

00:27:18.420 one it's like well i don't understand all these policies and i wouldn't know a good trade deal

00:27:22.900 from the bad one but i can tell a hard worker from a not hard worker that's pretty easy to tell i mean i i

00:27:29.780 can see that so that'll be my that'll be my reason um the trump rallies are insanely visual and of course the the

00:27:38.820 visual element is the most persuasive of of your senses it's more persuasive than a concept it's more

00:27:46.020 persuasive than hearing it and man are they visual they're super visual lots of red you know that's 0.89

00:27:52.500 a good visual color just everything is visual about it and of course trump um transitioning into happier

00:27:59.780 happy warrior mode just feels good right when somebody is bringing you optimism makes you feel

00:28:06.900 optimistic gives you a little energy maybe enough energy to show up and vote so look at all the stuff that

00:28:14.900 trump is getting right with all this stuff and look at the timing of it perfectly timed to peak at the

00:28:20.500 right time it's really good it's really good alexa turn on studio

00:28:33.620 all right that's enough of that let's talk about some more stuff

00:28:37.940 um you saw the video where joe biden appeared to think that the president's first name was george

00:28:46.580 did you see that and then there was some follow-up clarification that biden was actually in an

00:28:53.300 interview with george lopez so george lopez was a name that he was probably kicking around in his mind

00:29:01.300 so when it looked like biden couldn't remember the name of the president it probably it was still a

00:29:07.460 mental hiccup you know so it wasn't nothing but it was less than you thought it was maybe

00:29:16.420 it was a little less than you thought it was because it's not that unusual to um confuse the name of the

00:29:24.100 the person you're talking to with the person you're thinking of this is is a little more ordinary so

00:29:31.060 i will accept that clarification that it really wasn't about george bush and he wasn't

00:29:37.140 having some senior moment about george bush but it was still sort of a senior moment right it's not

00:29:44.740 nothing it's just it's just a little bit less than the what your first impression was

00:29:50.500 um philadelphia is on fire at least some of it is uh there's protests not protests there are riots

00:30:00.500 uh black lives matter is rioting there because a police shot a man with a knife who was attacking

00:30:07.620 them now he was an armed person who got shot in the act of violence and so there's a riot and looting

00:30:17.860 what does that do for the campaign well uh as matt walsh tweeted he said black lives matter is rioting 0.94

00:30:28.820 in philly because police shot a guy who was charging at them with a knife these buffoons didn't get the 1.00

00:30:35.220 memo that they're supposed to stop burning and destroying stuff until the election now they may 0.58

00:30:40.180 have just handed pennsylvania and the election to trump i endorse every part of that tweet i think

00:30:48.500 that's what happened because if you're the suburban uh family looking at this it just scares you again

00:30:57.300 and it's it's all democrat related so uh the democrats idea of squashing that uh violence just

00:31:07.300 before the election didn't work out um apparently trump back in 2018 i saw jack pasavik tweet on this

00:31:15.940 uh he was advocating for more mental health institutions so that that would be you know one

00:31:22.420 small way to deal with uh gun violence or other violence because crazy people can get violent now it's

00:31:29.220 not the full answer to gun violence of course but it started to look better and better isn't it a lot

00:31:36.340 of homeless people um they don't really have a homeless problem so much as a mental health problem

00:31:44.100 and i think we just have to get to the place where there are some citizens who just can't live among

00:31:50.420 the rest of them would you agree with that i think we've reached a problem let let me let me give you a

00:31:57.860 a reframing of what you see in society right now and see if this works for you we have a bunch of

00:32:06.100 problems like you know homeless and people with mental health and we've got you know lots of

00:32:11.780 income disparity and unemployment and lots of problems right and you got lots of people who've

00:32:16.980 gone through the prison system and they can't get jobs and blah blah there's there's a whole swath

00:32:24.260 of civilization that can't live with the rest of civilization but if you could find a place where

00:32:32.580 they could have their own life away from the other people who just need to get away from them

00:32:39.700 maybe that's the solution the problem seems to be when you integrate everybody in the same place

00:32:46.340 because an insane person could live happily you know in some environment a you know a person who has

00:32:54.100 committed crimes before could probably live happily in some environment but if you force them to live

00:33:00.260 where they can't afford you know they can't afford the rent what are they going to do maybe steal some

00:33:07.220 stuff so i've got a feeling that a lot of our problems in society are this assumption that everybody

00:33:13.300 should live near everybody else or wherever they want and what we need and this is one of kanye's

00:33:21.380 innovations i think because he's working on building you know low cost more livable shelters etc

00:33:28.260 kanye talks about how space can rewire your brain and i think he's on to something way bigger than

00:33:36.900 people quite understand i would like to see some kind of a trial because you should test it small

00:33:43.860 where you try to see what you can do for mental health by building a physical environment where the

00:33:49.620 physical environment is part of the cure not cure let's say treatment because imagine somebody's got a

00:33:57.220 mental health problem and it's pretty bad and so you grab them and say you no longer can live by

00:34:03.140 yourself i'm going to put you in a mental health institution is there anything that would be worse 0.93

00:34:09.380 for your mental health than being in a mental health institution which is basically a bunch of square 0.59

00:34:15.780 box you know containers with white walls i feel like that would make you worse whereas just take

00:34:25.220 this as a suppose suppose you took that same person and you put them in more of a nature surrounded

00:34:33.140 living environment where they're they're outdoors as much as they're indoors but they can't hurt

00:34:38.340 themselves they're they're no there's no traffic you know there's enough professionals watching

00:34:43.220 everything i feel like you could heal people to some extent or at least make it easier to treat

00:34:49.780 them if you put them in an environment that didn't suck that feels like it's a much much bigger thing

00:34:57.460 than we're giving it credit for because when somebody has mental health or other problems they go to jail

00:35:02.980 whatever you end you want to spend the least amount because it's like oh we don't want to raise our taxes

00:35:08.660 let's let's make it the cheapest thing it's like cubicles if you take an employee and put them in a 1.00

00:35:15.700 little box a cubicle they don't perform the same as if they're in a nice environment because your

00:35:22.020 environment programs you that that's just a fact anyway i think trump's on the right path which is we

00:35:28.980 need more facilities but i would object to building those facilities the way we have in the past i think

00:35:35.540 you need more of a kanye level design thinking about how to how to approach this um

00:35:45.620 let's see let's talk about uh uh nexium so i hope some of you saw my uh interview i did it's on youtube

00:35:56.820 with uh nick nicky klein who was involved with nexium and involved with dos the the separate but

00:36:05.940 a separate but you know venn diagram uh crossover with nexium so it's the same people from nexium some

00:36:14.340 of them formed the smaller group and their leader keith uh raneri is being sentenced today now what's

00:36:23.300 interesting and i said this before is that he didn't put up a defense but apparently keith raneri

00:36:30.100 will get to speak to the court today uh and i don't think the court has heard from him because

00:36:35.540 he didn't put on a defense now this is really interesting because he's not like regular people

00:36:43.220 meaning that he has some persuasion skills which is what got him into this trouble in the first place

00:36:49.620 that is not normal you know and i'm really curious if we'll ever know what he says in court

00:36:59.220 and whether it will make a difference because typically it's just a right or i don't know if

00:37:06.100 it's a right but the fact that somebody says something in open court doesn't really change anything

00:37:11.860 does it has it ever changed anything maybe change a little bit the sentencing but probably not

00:37:20.980 but that's normal people if you let me talk to the court a trained persuader there's a little higher

00:37:30.180 chance that something would come out of that a little bit you know even if it went through the

00:37:35.860 press before it changed something so he might actually move the needle and i tell you i would

00:37:42.660 buy a ticket to watch what he said to the court especially given that the claim is that the court

00:37:50.580 that the trial process was rigged or had some irregularities in it that should raise one of your

00:37:57.780 eyebrows through the roof and there are definitely some irregularities let me talk about some of them

00:38:02.820 so i would i guess i would uh separate all of the charges against raneri which add up to possibly a

00:38:12.180 life sentence so this is how bad all of the charges are a life sentence is possible today but there are

00:38:20.820 three categories one has to do with an underaged uh girl a 15 year old girl we'll talk about that one has

00:38:27.380 to do with a bunch of business related financial improprieties and something with immigration etc

00:38:35.540 and then another has to do with some kind of sex trafficking coercing coercion so three separate

00:38:44.100 categories now the ones with the financial irregularities here is the context which you need to know

00:38:51.060 pretty much any small business that was making a lot of money and it was a private company not a not a

00:38:58.900 public corporation but a private company making a lot of money if you if the government decided to to rip

00:39:06.100 it apart and look at everything look at every transaction every bank account check the immigration status of all

00:39:14.100 the employees look at all the employees look at all your paperwork how many crimes would you find in the average

00:39:21.860 law-abiding you think american small business if you don't know this this might come as a surprise to you

00:39:31.460 pretty much all small businesses in america are criminal organizations

00:39:36.340 now part of that is because they don't know how to satisfy all the laws i used to own a couple of small

00:39:49.620 restaurants i was in court twice or i went into a court process let's say twice for violating laws

00:39:59.780 that i didn't know existed

00:40:03.620 right that's how hard it is to obey the law if you're a small if you're a small business if you're

00:40:09.140 a small business you will violate laws you didn't even know were laws if i now i can't tell you what

00:40:15.940 those the two cases were because i had to you know sign something that says i won't ever talk about them

00:40:21.620 part of the reason the court i think doesn't want you ever talk about them is because it's embarrassing

00:40:26.740 because they shouldn't be laws in the first place but two laws if i described to you

00:40:32.260 what the law was and then what we did as a small business you would say to yourself are you effing

00:40:39.060 kidding me that was a law how could you possibly have known you would even violated that law and by the

00:40:46.340 the way no victims no victims no victims in both cases people were given what they wanted

00:40:55.940 and it broke the law no no victims everybody got what they wanted no there was no fraud nobody was fooled

00:41:03.780 nobody was lied to there was nothing sketchy whatsoever and it violated two laws and i had to settle in both

00:41:12.660 cases because the violation of the law was perfectly clear i just didn't know it existed nor did anybody

00:41:19.940 else associated with the business so the category of you know those things uh suggests that maybe there

00:41:30.100 was um let's say a prejudice against the organization that caused them to dig deeper into unrelated things

00:41:38.980 because i don't think they were originally accused of all the crimes that they were convicted of

00:41:44.340 i think that these were things that they discovered in the process of looking at other stuff i might be wrong

00:41:50.020 about that but i think that they just uncovered a bunch of stuff now the stuff that they uncovered

00:41:56.420 didn't seem to be related to one big scheme it was a bunch of individual things that individual

00:42:02.660 people were involved with it didn't even look like it came from the top so in other words there's

00:42:08.820 no suggestion that keith raneri specifically was ordering people to violate the law there may have

00:42:17.140 been some of that i don't know but it was just individual instances all right now i think that if you

00:42:23.460 do enough individual instances of something that the law doesn't like they can call you racketeering

00:42:30.580 in other words i can say it's not one person doing a bad thing it's a group so it's maybe it's some

00:42:35.860 kind of a group problem and that's bigger now you're racketeering and you know maybe you got some

00:42:40.820 rico problems and everything else so you can you can sum these things up to a bigger thing all right

00:42:46.340 then the other category is let's talk about the underage uh girl it's really hard to read any press that 1.00

00:42:56.900 gets into the details but there are some things about this that don't make any sense at all

00:43:01.860 so one of the major claims is that this 15 year old girl and two siblings came to live with the

00:43:10.180 the nexium folks and it's because their father was a big fan of the program he went through it and had

00:43:17.220 a great result so he wanted his children to benefit too and so the parents said yeah go there now uh

00:43:24.820 two of them were underage two of the females i guess

00:43:28.100 so here are the things that kind of don't make sense in the story you ready one of them is that

00:43:34.740 the uh the 15 year old was uh imprisoned in one room with the windows covered and a mattress and a

00:43:45.620 piece of paper that she could only write letters to keith raneri saying she was sorry or something i don't

00:43:51.860 know and and and that she stayed there for a year now when you first hear that you say okay he needs

00:44:00.020 to go to jail he needs to go to jail for a long time because if you put a 15 year old in a room and

00:44:07.140 imprison her or him for a year you need to go to jail but then you read another detail about it here's

00:44:17.540 the other detail it wasn't the cult that imprisoned her it was her family in the house that the family

00:44:26.020 lived in so her family made her stay in that room is that the cult i don't know it i mean you could

00:44:38.260 maybe say well the cult forced the family to do it but this gets me to the next question i'll talk

00:44:45.060 about this in a moment so that that sort of doesn't make sense because it feels like if the family's doing

00:44:50.820 it isn't you know it's still bad but wasn't that more the family um next there's a story that the

00:45:01.860 older sister the one who was older than 15 was getting a little flirty i guess when she was 17 with 1.00

00:45:09.460 keith the leader and that when it started to look like it was going to get physical keith the leader

00:45:17.060 said that she was under 18 and she was too young and so they waited until after she was 18 this was the

00:45:27.780 sister of the 15 year old who will come into the story again but the story goes that he did sleep

00:45:36.420 or did have some kind of sex with the 15 year old now does that story completely track to you that

00:45:45.300 he would be telling one of the sisters you have to wait until you're 18 and obviously he was interested

00:45:51.940 in her because as soon as she was 18 they got busy so does the person who is so concerned about

00:46:01.140 somebody not being a minor suddenly not care about the other one and then i guess the the story given

00:46:08.020 was that he said that some people are more mature than other people but i believe that the evidence

00:46:14.900 that he had sexual relationship with the younger one was hearsay meaning that i don't believe that

00:46:23.220 that it came from anybody except another witness meaning i think the sister is the one who said that the

00:46:29.620 15 year old told her and the sister is the one that said that keith said it but i don't know if they have

00:46:35.140 any direct evidence meaning i don't know if keith said it you know legally if he said it and i don't

00:46:41.700 know if the 15 year old who is now much older she's in her late 20s i guess i don't know if she ever said

00:46:47.300 it so these are just sort of questions i have is like do you have actually have evidence of this

00:46:54.180 because we've got two pieces of evidence that don't disprove it that you know they certainly don't

00:47:00.820 disprove it but they certainly raise some questions and the press doesn't fill in those blanks so i got

00:47:07.140 questions now let me say as clearly as possible if anything happened with the underage girl 0.51

00:47:13.780 the legal system needs to be involved and whatever it comes up with probably makes sense but

00:47:20.260 uh there does seem to be a strong indication that there's um maybe some kind of vendetta going on

00:47:30.740 here and that there might be some prejudice in the whole process but let me get to get to the most

00:47:38.020 interesting part of this because it gets into free will so the the largest part of the uh accusations

00:47:45.140 are that he sort of brainwashed people into becoming sex slaves and i feel as though there's a blind spot

00:47:54.740 here in how you know the normal public looks at this situation because let me give you this example

00:48:01.060 let's say let's say somebody came to you and said um i've got this proposition for you i would like you to

00:48:08.500 be my my slave and as part of that uh that situation i would like you to give me personal private information

00:48:19.460 that will guarantee the privacy of this situation blackmail if you will now it's only it's only blackmail

00:48:26.980 i suppose if somebody used it and there's no evidence that in this in this uh nexium or in this dos

00:48:34.580 situation i should say there's no evidence that anybody ever used any of that blackmail and indeed

00:48:40.420 people people left the organization so there were people who left the organization there's no no penalty

00:48:47.860 so we know that happened now here's the question if i say to you here's the deal you have you have to

00:48:53.460 give me this information and then you would be treated as my slave and let's say you agree to that 0.63

00:48:59.300 you agree to be a slave for whatever reason and you agree to give that private information

00:49:08.180 and then later you decide that you have to do what you're told because you have agreed to the situation

00:49:17.060 where's the crime exactly where's the crime because it'd be one thing if somebody stole blackmail

00:49:25.380 information and then used it against you but there's no indication that happened it was all

00:49:29.700 voluntary so where does free will come into this can a person not agree in this country is it illegal to

00:49:39.220 agree to be somebody else's slave and to give them private information that of course could be dangerous

00:49:46.580 later why is that illegal now let's say you did it with one person i'll bet that wouldn't be

00:49:55.300 illegal right but suppose one person did it to lots of people let's say there was one person at

00:50:02.740 the top and lots of people got involved well now it sounds like a bigger problem right but isn't it the

00:50:10.420 same thing that wasn't a problem just multiplied there's more of it how many of these people enjoyed the

00:50:18.420 situation from beginning to end including the part where they voluntarily accepted a brand how many

00:50:27.780 people were happy all the way through from the moment they said yes through all the process all the way

00:50:34.260 to the end and and when it was a problem how many of them said why is this a problem i don't even

00:50:41.700 understand i voluntarily did this i enjoyed every minute of it what percentage of them said that i don't

00:50:48.900 know but i feel like probably more of them said they liked it and probably more of them said well this is

00:50:55.220 what i signed up for than there were who ultimately changed their mind so there there obviously has to be

00:51:03.780 something more to this from a legal perspective that turned that into something illegal but i suspect that

00:51:10.660 sexism is a really big part of this story because imagine if you will that you just reverse the genders 1.00

00:51:18.660 okay suppose there was a woman on top of a a slave organization and all the slaves were men 1.00

00:51:27.700 would that woman ever go to court no no all you'd have to do is reverse the genders and nobody would even 1.00

00:51:39.940 see a crime because they would say well men can make decisions and if a man makes a decision to give you

00:51:46.420 private information and a man makes a decision to act as your slave where's the bad where's the crime so here

00:51:55.220 here here's here's here's the part that will make your head explode i hope it made my head explode it's

00:52:02.020 only a crime because wait for it society doesn't imagine that women can make up their own minds that's 1.00

00:52:12.020 it i think this whole thing got hyper criminalized because society doesn't think women have agency over their 1.00

00:52:20.980 their own decisions and that they can be manipulated by a this svengali you know guru but if you reverse 1.00

00:52:29.860 the genders nobody would say that about a man they would just say well you dumb ass you gotta enjoy your 1.00

00:52:37.140 brand dumb ass you had it coming nobody would give a shit if you reversed the genders that's important 1.00

00:52:47.780 now if i were going to argue this case and i were the defense attorney i would go and write for that 1.00

00:52:54.820 and the and i think that the uh the jury trial would have said um you're right if the genders had been 0.90

00:53:04.020 reversed we wouldn't have had any problem with it at all i see in the comments that somebody of you were

00:53:12.340 uh agreeing uh agreeing so the reason that i talk about this i see some of you are uncomfortable with

00:53:19.860 the topic and saying move on get away from this topic the reason that this is relevant to everything

00:53:26.500 else is persuasion and free will these are my primary topics when i talk about uh politics it's generally 0.99

00:53:33.780 through that filter um somebody says they're uncomfortable with how stupid this is is it see 0.99

00:53:42.660 here's here's your blind spot the blind spot is this you believe that the people who signed up as slaves 1.00

00:53:51.780 were coerced right that's really the nature of the the thing you believe they were coerced now

00:53:59.220 you're thinking yourself well they were manipulated so they feel like they made their own decisions

00:54:06.260 but did they they were manipulated into making those decisions but again you wouldn't have said this if

00:54:11.860 it were men all right um let's keep an eye on this there will be more news about this oh let me give

00:54:19.140 you one update that you'll like so i was reading up on this cnn had an article and in cnn

00:54:24.260 they mentioned uh nikki klein who i interviewed on youtube who was a member and they said that they

00:54:32.100 contacted nikki klein for a comment and she declined to comment and so i texted nikki klein and said

00:54:42.900 cnn says you declined to comment which seemed not necessarily true to me because

00:54:49.540 she wants to she wants public attention why would you decline to comment if you are actively engaged

00:54:58.820 in trying to get attention for your point of view and so i said did you decline to comment for cnn

00:55:05.780 what do you think she said no she invited them to join the protest and cover it which is where she 1.00

00:55:12.820 is right now at the courthouse as part of a protest during the hearings so cnn the the one thing i could

00:55:20.020 check wasn't true all right so just just hold this in mind you i talk about the gel man amnesia all the

00:55:28.420 time where if you know about a story you can tell all the things that are wrong about it but if you don't

00:55:33.620 have any of your own information about a story it looks real to you i mean you say well it's in the

00:55:39.780 news it's probably true but as soon as you know anything about it you know it's not true what did

00:55:45.540 i know about this story nothing i took a guess on one fact in a larger body of a story i just took

00:55:56.180 a guess and i said i'll bet this fact isn't true picked up my phone and learned it wasn't true in less

00:56:03.860 than 30 seconds right i mean that's that's the world you live in right so let me say i don't

00:56:11.700 believe any of the reporting about this nexium stuff if it turns out the underage girl stuff is true then 0.99

00:56:20.100 keith deserves some prison time i'm sure but the rest of the stuff it's really sketchy it's really sketchy

00:56:29.780 and i think probably it needs to be addressed in some way all right that's enough for now and i will

00:56:36.500 talk to you all tomorrow

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 27, 2020

Episode 1167 Scott Adams： Trump is on a Glide Path to Reelection, NXIVM Update, Philly Riots Help Trump, Supreme Court

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