Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1171 Scott Adams： Rappers Like Trump, Beware the Dad Jokers Answering Polls, The FBI and Hunter, More

00:00:00.000 But I don't know if I believe it.

00:00:03.260 All right, YouTubers, you missed the simultaneous sip because of technological problems.

00:00:07.900 But we're apparently working right now.

00:00:12.460 Oh, somebody says it's actually not working.

00:00:14.880 All right, well, screw that.

00:00:16.400 We'll just go on.

00:00:18.180 All right, so here's my point.

00:00:20.640 I think the biggest category of people who are lying to pollsters are not shy Trump supporters.

00:00:26.940 Looks like he's working on YouTube now.

00:00:30.880 So I think it's the dad joke category.

00:00:34.880 Because for every person who is lying to a pollster because they don't want the pollster to know they're a Trump supporter,

00:00:42.540 I feel like there might be four or five people who are lying to pollsters because they think it's hilarious.

00:00:50.300 And here's the fun part.

00:00:53.580 Well, as you know, a great deal of people on the left do not have a functioning sense of humor.

00:01:02.060 And that's part of the reason that they're horrified by Trump is they literally can't tell when he's joking.

00:01:08.200 I mean, actually, literally, they don't know when he's kidding.

00:01:12.300 So they think he has all these dictator tendencies, etc.

00:01:17.380 Because they can't tell when he's just joking and when he's serious.

00:01:22.640 And I think that there probably are four or five to one Trump supporting people who just think it's freaking hilarious that the polls are wrong.

00:01:35.840 Am I right about that?

00:01:37.500 Whoever is saying no sound, I should block you because I think you're a troll.

00:01:45.580 That's the trolliest thing to say on these live streams.

00:01:49.460 Don't be that guy.

00:01:51.240 All right.

00:01:53.920 So I think that lack of sense of humor by the left gives them a blind spot.

00:01:59.100 Meaning that if I said to Democrats, here's a mental experiment.

00:02:05.700 There are 10 Democrats and 10 Trump supporters.

00:02:09.680 You go to the 10 Democrats and you say the following.

00:02:13.540 Hey, I think Trump supporters are joking.

00:02:17.240 And it's like a practical joke that they lie to pollsters because they think it's funny.

00:02:22.140 And the result will be Democrats screaming at the sky when Trump wins.

00:02:28.280 And they think that that's worth lying to pollsters about.

00:02:31.740 What would Democrats say about that?

00:02:33.820 I believe they would say, well, that's not a thing.

00:02:37.500 Right?

00:02:38.620 Don't you think the Democrats would say, Scott, Scott, Scott.

00:02:42.440 Don't tell me that there's some massive collusion conspiracy in which there's a whole bunch of Republicans who just magically, they've all coordinated, Scott.

00:02:57.380 Who's in charge of this?

00:02:59.140 Who's coordinating this, Scott, this conspiracy that you see of all these Republicans who are lying to pollsters?

00:03:07.080 Ha, ha, ha, Scott.

00:03:08.820 You're so ridiculous.

00:03:11.280 Right?

00:03:11.560 Don't you think a Democrat would just mock me for even suggesting that a massive amount, not a small amount, a very large number of Trump supporters are lying because they think it's funny?

00:03:25.760 All right.

00:03:26.120 Now I walk over to the 10 Trump supporters and I say, hey, 10 Trump supporters, do you think that Republicans are lying to pollsters because they think it's funny?

00:03:37.580 What would the 10 Trump supporters say?

00:03:40.320 All 10 of them would laugh out loud.

00:03:44.780 You know I'm right.

00:03:46.900 You know they would because they would recognize it to be true.

00:03:51.340 They would instantly know, yeah, they're doing that.

00:03:54.120 That's exactly what they're doing.

00:03:57.580 Maybe, maybe not those 10 people, but I'll bet they know people.

00:04:02.240 I'll bet they know people who are doing it.

00:04:04.860 So I think this lack of a sense of humor has created this immense blind spot for people on the left.

00:04:12.160 They can't tell when Trump is kidding, but worse, they can't tell when the voters are being serious.

00:04:18.540 They can't tell.

00:04:20.080 So it's the perfect prank because the only people who would fall for the prank are the people who are the target.

00:04:30.920 Let's fast forward to Trump winning the election.

00:04:34.260 So that's my prediction.

00:04:36.600 I will allow that should I be wrong, I will take it like a, I'll take it like a man.

00:04:43.440 You know, if it turns out my prediction is wrong, well, then it's just wrong.

00:04:46.840 But I expect it's right, as I always do, always more confident than I should be.

00:04:53.480 And I suppose it's right.

00:04:55.960 Are there any Trump supporters who are going to say, well, that was impossible?

00:05:02.460 No, no.

00:05:03.860 There's not a single Trump supporter who's going to say, well, that was impossible.

00:05:08.480 I don't know how it happened.

00:05:09.880 They all think it's possible because they all think that the polls are wrong.

00:05:15.460 Well, pretty much universally.

00:05:18.260 So poor Democrats are going to have a tough time if it goes that way.

00:05:22.140 So the stock market pulled back quite a bit at the end of the week, especially.

00:05:27.000 Was that predictable?

00:05:29.360 Did you predict that the stock market would have a big pullback the week or so before the election, election day?

00:05:37.280 The election's already going on.

00:05:38.880 But did you predict that?

00:05:41.560 I did.

00:05:42.340 Now, I don't know if it happened because of the following reasons, which were the basis of my prediction.

00:05:49.740 But you decide.

00:05:51.320 Here's why I believed the stocks would pull back.

00:05:54.420 Number one, obviously, Pelosi was going to keep killing the stimulus bills with poison bills,

00:06:00.740 so that the economy would be frightened by not getting these relief packages, essentially.

00:06:11.400 And so since Pelosi had the power to stop that legislation, you knew that that was one reason that the stock market would get skittish, right?

00:06:20.580 So that part, everybody knew about that part.

00:06:23.320 But here's the part that I submit to you was obvious and predictable if you understood how the world works.

00:06:33.260 You know, if you had enough of a talent stack to understand everything from persuasion to politics to business,

00:06:40.780 here's what you would see.

00:06:42.020 The stock market is tied to CEOs predicting how they will do next year.

00:06:51.420 Are you with me?

00:06:52.400 The main driver of the stock market, there are lots of externalities like interest rates and outside shocks.

00:06:59.280 But primarily, despite all those outside things, primarily the stock market works on what the CEOs say will happen next year.

00:07:12.900 Which is, is that a fact?

00:07:16.800 When CEOs say, I think that our earnings next year will be up 10%, is that a fact?

00:07:25.100 No, it is not.

00:07:26.040 It's an opinion.

00:07:28.380 And it's subjective.

00:07:30.880 And it is subject to a wide variety of possible things a CEO could say.

00:07:38.040 And indeed, they could have one opinion and yet express it an infinite number of ways,

00:07:45.300 depending if they wanted you to feel a little bit optimistic or a little bit pessimistic.

00:07:51.060 Am I right?

00:07:52.040 And let's say those CEOs were mostly anti-Trump.

00:07:57.100 Let's say, and I'll just pick one as an example, and this is not an accusation.

00:08:02.260 I'll just use it as an example.

00:08:04.640 Suppose you were the CEO of a major tech company.

00:08:09.660 And let's suppose that you did not like President Trump and did not want him to be re-elected.

00:08:15.000 And suppose you looked at your earnings, and there were two ways that you could describe them.

00:08:19.900 One was really optimistic, and let's say the data supported that.

00:08:24.960 But the other was less optimistic, and let's say the data also supported that, which would not be unusual.

00:08:32.320 Because remember, it's very subjective.

00:08:34.860 It's how much optimism you're going to put on it, what kind of assumptions do you make, etc.

00:08:39.580 So now you're a CEO of a major company, and you don't want Trump to get elected.

00:08:46.100 How do you frame your earnings?

00:08:50.000 You frame them a little bit ambiguously.

00:08:54.040 And you say, we can't tell what's going to happen next year.

00:08:57.860 We'd like it to go well, but so much uncertainty, we certainly can't tell.

00:09:03.580 Now, when the market hears the CEO say that they have uncertainty, what do they do?

00:09:10.080 They sell their damn stocks.

00:09:12.080 Because you don't want to own stocks when there's great uncertainty.

00:09:16.780 Certainty is the best thing you can have, as long as it's a positive certainty, of course.

00:09:21.260 So, all of your CEOs who are reporting earnings in this week before the election,

00:09:30.760 do you think that they chose to describe their earnings in the future,

00:09:38.120 the ones that are subjective, that are an opinion,

00:09:42.280 do you think that they maybe took a little off it?

00:09:45.140 Just pulled back a little bit on the optimism?

00:09:47.340 Because if you don't think they did that, you don't know anything about people.

00:09:52.840 Even if they didn't want to do that,

00:09:55.180 even if they didn't consciously say to themselves,

00:09:58.320 I'm going to go out there and I'm going to try to move the stocks

00:10:01.360 because that'll hurt the president,

00:10:03.100 even if they weren't thinking it,

00:10:06.200 if they were anti-Trump,

00:10:08.460 they knew which answer was the good one for their team, right?

00:10:12.960 So, if you have enough CEOs who have this bias,

00:10:16.240 which is, I don't want to make it look like it's too much good news.

00:10:21.220 Now, normally your CEO would want to say good news,

00:10:24.340 so the stock would go up and they'd look like a star.

00:10:27.120 But keep in mind, they only have to keep this illusion of bad news

00:10:30.880 or ambiguous news or a lack of clarity.

00:10:34.640 They only have to maintain this for about a month

00:10:36.880 just to get past the election

00:10:39.140 and then say, well, I guess we got some new information

00:10:42.420 and it looks like things are better than we thought.

00:10:45.840 Very easy to adjust their assumptions.

00:10:50.920 Very easy to adjust it backwards.

00:10:53.640 So, I predicted that the stock guidance would get a little bit negative

00:10:59.480 and the stock would fall because of uncertainty.

00:11:02.140 But if ever there was a buying opportunity,

00:11:06.420 let me take that back.

00:11:08.480 You should not take any financial advice from cartoonists.

00:11:12.720 And I mean that as seriously as I can say anything.

00:11:17.400 You should not make bets or financial decisions

00:11:21.900 based on what I say.

00:11:24.300 You really shouldn't.

00:11:25.740 And I'm being very serious about this.

00:11:27.920 You shouldn't.

00:11:28.420 That said, this has all of the earmarks of an artificial pullback.

00:11:36.220 And if you were going to buy stock,

00:11:39.080 you would want to look for artificial pullbacks

00:11:41.880 because those are the ones that won't last.

00:11:44.860 If I had to guess on this one,

00:11:47.060 this looks about as artificial as a pullback it could possibly look

00:11:50.860 because it seems just related to the headlines,

00:11:53.740 which means it probably is not something deep.

00:11:57.980 We'll see.

00:12:03.160 Why is it that Trump never mentions nuclear power?

00:12:06.820 Have you noticed that?

00:12:09.180 Whenever Trump is talking about the Green New Deal

00:12:13.000 and how Biden wants to replace fossil fuels and everything,

00:12:19.000 he doesn't mention nuclear.

00:12:20.920 But yet the administration is quite pro-nuclear.

00:12:23.860 So if you look at the Department of Energy

00:12:26.300 and you look at what the government's doing

00:12:28.240 and what they're funding,

00:12:29.900 what they're putting their money behind,

00:12:31.980 they're definitely very pro-nuclear.

00:12:34.600 But Trump himself,

00:12:36.260 he just doesn't even use the word.

00:12:38.700 He doesn't even throw it in the list

00:12:40.500 of good things that are happening.

00:12:43.040 And I'm a little bit curious about that.

00:12:45.040 Now, I think it's probably completely political,

00:12:50.620 meaning that you don't get any new voters

00:12:53.680 because you say nuclear, I'm just guessing,

00:12:56.220 but maybe you would lose voters if you say nuclear.

00:12:59.260 So it could be that there's no good political way

00:13:02.540 to talk about it.

00:13:03.760 It might be that.

00:13:04.480 It could be because Trump himself

00:13:07.680 is not completely sold

00:13:09.900 as much as members of his administration.

00:13:13.040 It could be that.

00:13:14.040 I don't know.

00:13:14.980 But I think he needs to get over that.

00:13:17.520 I think I'd like to see the president

00:13:19.140 talk about nuclear,

00:13:20.940 even if he doesn't like it.

00:13:22.880 I feel like we need some transparency there

00:13:25.060 to get his opinion on that.

00:13:27.120 And it's so conspicuously missing.

00:13:30.320 Now, let me see.

00:13:31.020 If I told you that this happened,

00:13:34.160 would you believe it?

00:13:35.880 If I told you that Joe Biden ran a campaign ad

00:13:39.340 in which he implied that Jews in America

00:13:44.040 were associated with Hitler,

00:13:48.300 would you believe that happened?

00:13:49.720 Not associated with, but let's say compared to.

00:13:53.560 Would you believe, if I told you that, hypothetically,

00:13:57.100 would you believe that Joe Biden ran a campaign ad

00:13:59.800 comparing conservative, Trump-supporting Jews

00:14:04.780 in America to Hitler? 0.84

00:14:07.540 Would you think that actually happened?

00:14:10.620 That actually happened.

00:14:12.960 Now, in the ad, he didn't call out

00:14:15.320 any particular group except Trump supporters

00:14:18.600 by implication.

00:14:21.180 So the ad essentially accused President Trump

00:14:24.820 of being heading in the direction of Hitler.

00:14:27.580 So the ad compares Trump to Hitler.

00:14:32.040 What does that compare his supporters to?

00:14:36.000 Well, automatically, if you're saying

00:14:38.120 that you support a Hitler, 0.80

00:14:39.740 you're kind of a Nazi by definition or association.

00:14:45.240 In all practical ways,

00:14:46.940 if you support a Hitler character,

00:14:49.440 you're either a Nazi or you like one, 0.95

00:14:51.940 similar to one.

00:14:52.900 So the Biden ad quite clearly

00:14:56.320 is meant to compare Trump supporters

00:14:59.080 to Nazis, actual Nazis,

00:15:03.020 with a picture of Hitler.

00:15:05.600 Now, this comes only days after

00:15:08.580 a gigantic pro-Trump rally

00:15:12.960 by Jewish Americans.

00:15:15.060 So Jewish Americans are having a big rally

00:15:18.860 in favor of Trump.

00:15:20.120 And of course, Israel loves Trump, etc.

00:15:23.300 And Biden is comparing Trump supporters

00:15:26.160 to Nazis.

00:15:29.600 Connect the dots.

00:15:31.860 This actually happened in America in 2020

00:15:34.520 that Biden compared American Jews to Nazis.

00:15:39.160 Now, not directly.

00:15:41.680 It's only by the, you know,

00:15:42.980 the associations that I've set up.

00:15:45.460 If Trump's a Nazi,

00:15:47.280 or, yeah, if Trump's a Hitler,

00:15:48.980 his supporters must be Nazis. 0.77

00:15:50.720 And we just saw that there are a whole lot

00:15:52.380 of supporters who are Jewish.

00:15:54.520 So doesn't that make them Nazis, 0.87

00:15:57.700 according to Joe Biden?

00:15:59.920 That's pretty rugged, Joe.

00:16:02.200 You need to answer to that.

00:16:03.460 So here's the story that nobody cares about,

00:16:07.920 even though it's the biggest story in the world.

00:16:09.740 The FBI has active criminal investigation

00:16:12.160 into the Biden family and their business.

00:16:16.900 And the charge they're looking into

00:16:19.080 is money laundering.

00:16:20.940 What?

00:16:22.740 So since 2019,

00:16:24.620 the FBI has been looking into the Biden family

00:16:27.040 on some kind of charge.

00:16:29.340 We don't know the basis for it,

00:16:31.940 but money laundering.

00:16:33.460 Now, I'm guessing it has to do

00:16:35.900 with either Ukraine or China or both.

00:16:39.180 And how will we treat that?

00:16:41.980 Will we treat that

00:16:43.620 like it's the biggest story in the country?

00:16:47.100 Because it is.

00:16:49.100 Or will the press disappear it?

00:16:54.720 The Trump, the press disappeared it.

00:16:58.360 They're treating it like it doesn't matter.

00:17:00.880 Like it's not really there.

00:17:02.040 And watching this is just mind-boggling.

00:17:06.380 And you know what weird, weird thought I had?

00:17:09.280 Are you ready for the full simulation?

00:17:12.040 All right.

00:17:12.320 When I say this,

00:17:14.000 you're probably going to laugh

00:17:16.180 because it's too on the nose.

00:17:18.480 So the FBI has this information about Hunter Biden

00:17:23.520 and the Biden family,

00:17:24.820 but we don't know the details,

00:17:26.640 and it's a few days before the election.

00:17:29.160 Do you know who we need?

00:17:31.640 James Comey.

00:17:33.320 We need James Comey

00:17:34.920 to make a public announcement

00:17:37.060 that the Biden family is being looked into

00:17:40.440 for money laundering

00:17:43.120 because that is just like

00:17:45.280 Hillary's emails in 2016.

00:17:48.000 The fact that there's no James Comey

00:17:50.420 is the reason that

00:17:52.420 the news gets to just ignore it

00:17:55.000 because if the FBI

00:17:56.780 did a press conference

00:17:59.860 and said,

00:18:00.440 hey,

00:18:00.940 the election's coming

00:18:02.400 and I just want you to have

00:18:04.260 all the information,

00:18:05.780 which is what Comey did, right?

00:18:07.880 When Comey talked about Hillary's emails,

00:18:10.960 he didn't say she's guilty of something.

00:18:13.560 He simply said,

00:18:14.860 as voters,

00:18:15.780 you deserve to have all the information.

00:18:18.160 I'll just tell you what we know,

00:18:20.200 that we're looking into something.

00:18:21.420 All right?

00:18:22.920 Now,

00:18:23.640 don't you think

00:18:24.660 that we need a James Comey

00:18:28.620 to do the same thing

00:18:29.620 with the Hunter Biden stuff?

00:18:31.320 Same message.

00:18:32.820 There are no charges

00:18:34.720 against any of the Bidens.

00:18:36.320 We want you to know

00:18:37.240 there are no charges.

00:18:40.000 We are, however,

00:18:41.380 looking into this issue

00:18:42.740 and we just think

00:18:44.160 the public needs to know

00:18:45.460 before you vote.

00:18:47.560 Why not?

00:18:49.080 Now, of course,

00:18:49.640 that's not going to happen.

00:18:51.420 I see somebody prompting me

00:18:53.820 that ABC News

00:18:54.920 did run a story on it this week,

00:18:56.880 which was unusual enough

00:18:59.820 that people were tweeting

00:19:01.720 about the fact

00:19:03.000 that a major news organization

00:19:04.800 ran a story.

00:19:06.320 Now, it wasn't much of a story,

00:19:08.200 but they covered it

00:19:09.420 and it really stood out

00:19:12.420 because it hadn't been ignored.

00:19:16.860 All right,

00:19:17.660 so we need James Comey

00:19:19.100 to fix things here.

00:19:20.680 Here's what else we need.

00:19:23.180 Have you ever seen

00:19:23.860 Elon Musk's company

00:19:26.280 that makes this big machine

00:19:27.580 that bores tunnels?

00:19:29.340 It's actually called

00:19:30.320 The Boring Company,

00:19:31.620 which is funny.

00:19:32.720 So it's a giant

00:19:34.320 earth-moving truck device

00:19:38.000 that has a big drill

00:19:39.580 on the front

00:19:40.260 and somehow is optimized

00:19:41.500 for drilling tunnels.

00:19:43.460 So we have one of those.

00:19:45.280 All right,

00:19:45.480 so that's the first thing

00:19:46.360 you need to know

00:19:46.880 before I get to my actual idea.

00:19:49.480 Second,

00:19:50.000 I used to work on a farm,

00:19:51.440 a dairy farm,

00:19:52.240 and part of my job

00:19:53.240 was to bring in the hay.

00:19:57.440 So there would be

00:19:58.240 this big device

00:19:59.780 that a tractor would pull

00:20:01.400 and it would cut the hay 0.87

00:20:03.020 and it would wrap it

00:20:04.240 into hay bales

00:20:05.060 and wrap a twine around it

00:20:07.000 and then toss it

00:20:07.800 into the back of a wagon.

00:20:09.000 And I would be in the back

00:20:10.700 of the wagon

00:20:11.160 usually with my brother

00:20:12.260 and the hay bale

00:20:13.720 would come flying over

00:20:14.780 and then we would have

00:20:15.700 to stack it neatly

00:20:17.280 so more of them

00:20:18.640 would fit in the back

00:20:19.520 and then unload them.

00:20:22.100 All right,

00:20:22.360 so you've got a giant machine

00:20:24.080 that can bore tunnels. 0.98

00:20:26.020 We've got a giant machine

00:20:27.280 that can turn grass

00:20:28.860 into hay bales

00:20:30.220 and even tie them up

00:20:31.660 and stuff.

00:20:32.780 Can we not make a giant machine

00:20:36.200 that builds border wall?

00:20:40.080 Huh?

00:20:41.180 Because if you've seen

00:20:42.260 the border wall,

00:20:43.340 it appears that there are,

00:20:44.600 you know,

00:20:44.900 big segments

00:20:46.280 that are dropped

00:20:47.900 into concrete

00:20:48.680 and I don't know

00:20:51.160 that there's much else to it.

00:20:52.880 So you need a trench,

00:20:55.200 you need concrete,

00:20:56.320 and you need the fence parts

00:20:59.280 stuck into it.

00:21:01.180 Can we not,

00:21:02.700 just asking the question,

00:21:03.920 can we not build

00:21:05.560 a gigantic machine

00:21:07.060 that just drives down

00:21:09.720 the border

00:21:10.140 going chunk, chunk, chunk,

00:21:11.300 chunk, chunk, chunk, chunk,

00:21:11.920 chunk, and dropping fence 1.00

00:21:14.300 and concrete as it goes?

00:21:16.240 You know,

00:21:16.440 digging the tunnel,

00:21:17.760 dropping the concrete,

00:21:19.760 dropping the fence,

00:21:20.780 and then just going

00:21:21.500 to the next part

00:21:22.260 and dropping another segment.

00:21:23.880 Could we not do that?

00:21:25.620 Not possible.

00:21:27.400 Somebody's telling me

00:21:28.180 that the ABC story

00:21:29.380 was from 2019.

00:21:31.460 Is that true?

00:21:32.320 That would be funny

00:21:33.600 if it's true.

00:21:34.860 Here we were giving ABC credit,

00:21:36.880 but somebody's saying

00:21:38.560 it was a 2019 story.

00:21:40.940 That might be true.

00:21:42.100 I don't know.

00:21:42.540 Fact check that for me.

00:21:44.440 So let's get a big

00:21:45.300 wall building machine.

00:21:48.580 And I think the fiction

00:21:50.060 is starting to fall away.

00:21:52.620 All Trump was doing

00:21:53.840 was replacing existing wall.

00:21:56.420 Now I think it's technically true

00:21:58.480 that the funding

00:21:59.900 and the efforts right now

00:22:01.100 are where there is

00:22:02.240 existing wall

00:22:03.140 and they're upgrading it.

00:22:04.760 But where they're upgrading it

00:22:06.220 is because the wall

00:22:07.180 was so inadequate

00:22:08.460 it was basically

00:22:09.380 not a wall at all.

00:22:11.120 So I think that,

00:22:12.060 I think the president

00:22:12.920 is completely

00:22:13.860 within his rights

00:22:16.080 to say this is new wall.

00:22:18.060 Because the old wall

00:22:19.100 was so un-wall-like

00:22:20.520 and useless

00:22:21.100 that it was basically

00:22:22.160 no wall.

00:22:23.300 And the only reason

00:22:24.020 that the old wall

00:22:24.760 was there

00:22:25.120 is that it was

00:22:25.640 an important place

00:22:26.400 to have a wall.

00:22:26.900 All right, so

00:22:28.560 we've seen

00:22:29.560 the following pattern lately.

00:22:31.180 You saw Kanye

00:22:31.980 liking President Trump,

00:22:34.100 Ice Cube

00:22:34.780 willing to talk

00:22:35.640 to the Trump administration.

00:22:37.700 You saw 50 Cent

00:22:39.140 saying some positive things

00:22:40.560 about Trump

00:22:41.120 before some negative things.

00:22:43.220 And now I guess

00:22:43.780 Lil Wayne

00:22:44.320 has met President Trump

00:22:45.900 and endorses him.

00:22:47.800 Now,

00:22:49.040 as I've said many times,

00:22:50.900 our brains

00:22:51.520 are pattern recognition machines.

00:22:54.680 That's basically

00:22:55.500 what they are.

00:22:56.900 That's all they are.

00:22:58.500 Our brain

00:22:58.960 just recognizes patterns.

00:23:00.960 And it's not good at it,

00:23:03.920 which is the other part.

00:23:05.260 The reason that

00:23:05.960 there are things

00:23:06.540 like bias

00:23:07.240 and discrimination

00:23:08.740 and racism

00:23:09.780 and all these things

00:23:10.680 are because

00:23:11.700 our brains

00:23:12.340 are pattern recognition machines,

00:23:14.180 but they're not good.

00:23:15.540 They don't work very well.

00:23:17.240 We see patterns

00:23:18.120 that are not real patterns.

00:23:19.560 We believe we see patterns

00:23:20.980 when there are no patterns.

00:23:22.660 But we can't turn off

00:23:24.000 our pattern recognizing

00:23:25.220 function

00:23:26.560 because that's the basis

00:23:27.740 of our intelligence

00:23:29.240 is recognizing patterns.

00:23:31.400 So now you have these

00:23:32.560 four famous

00:23:33.900 black male

00:23:35.240 rapper types.

00:23:37.280 I guess they'll be called

00:23:38.300 rappers or,

00:23:40.120 you know,

00:23:40.640 obviously

00:23:41.160 Kanye is much more

00:23:43.220 than that.

00:23:43.820 50 Cent is much more

00:23:44.820 than that.

00:23:45.260 Ice Cube is much more

00:23:46.160 than that,

00:23:47.020 actually.

00:23:47.640 They all have

00:23:48.160 multiple career paths.

00:23:49.760 But your pattern recognition

00:23:53.000 part of your brain,

00:23:55.080 what's it do

00:23:55.880 when you hear

00:23:56.820 that all four

00:23:57.640 of these

00:23:58.220 famous black

00:24:00.540 musical

00:24:01.820 plus other

00:24:02.900 successes,

00:24:05.060 what do you do

00:24:06.380 when you hear

00:24:06.900 that they're all

00:24:07.920 somewhat

00:24:09.220 okay with Trump?

00:24:12.040 It makes a difference.

00:24:14.300 It makes a difference.

00:24:15.620 because you can't

00:24:17.840 unsee this pattern.

00:24:19.620 If it had only been

00:24:20.940 Kanye,

00:24:21.940 your brain would say

00:24:23.620 that's not a pattern,

00:24:24.680 that's one point.

00:24:26.340 And Kanye's

00:24:27.040 Kanye.

00:24:28.380 So Kanye

00:24:29.000 breaks so many norms

00:24:30.440 that it doesn't

00:24:31.840 really seem like

00:24:32.460 a pattern.

00:24:33.920 But then,

00:24:34.600 but then you get

00:24:35.860 50 Cent

00:24:37.180 in the mix.

00:24:38.780 But then you say

00:24:39.700 to yourself,

00:24:40.240 oh,

00:24:40.540 okay,

00:24:40.900 remember,

00:24:41.720 Kanye is the exception,

00:24:42.760 so really

00:24:44.180 it's just

00:24:44.620 50 Cent

00:24:45.320 and he didn't

00:24:46.740 necessarily say

00:24:47.500 he loves Trump,

00:24:48.480 he just dislikes

00:24:49.800 Biden's tax plans,

00:24:52.180 so that's not

00:24:53.520 exactly a pattern.

00:24:54.920 That's two things

00:24:56.360 that have something

00:24:57.060 in common.

00:24:58.540 But then you throw

00:24:59.440 in Ice Cube.

00:25:01.180 And again,

00:25:01.840 Ice Cube's not

00:25:02.560 pro-Trump.

00:25:04.000 He's just willing

00:25:04.780 to talk to them

00:25:05.640 and acknowledges

00:25:06.600 that they did

00:25:07.140 some things

00:25:07.620 for the black community.

00:25:09.300 But now you say

00:25:10.220 to yourself,

00:25:10.720 okay,

00:25:11.940 it's still

00:25:12.580 three different people,

00:25:13.980 three individuals

00:25:14.740 doing three things

00:25:16.640 for their own purposes,

00:25:18.480 but it sure feels

00:25:19.640 like a pattern,

00:25:20.380 doesn't it?

00:25:21.680 It's not really

00:25:22.960 a pattern,

00:25:24.120 but it feels like it.

00:25:25.940 And then you throw

00:25:26.760 Lil Wayne on there

00:25:27.760 and you're just done.

00:25:29.100 Your brain is done.

00:25:30.540 At this point,

00:25:31.320 you could tell yourself

00:25:32.260 this isn't a pattern,

00:25:33.920 but it's a frickin' pattern.

00:25:35.960 Right?

00:25:36.880 And again,

00:25:38.100 it's four people

00:25:39.040 doing things

00:25:39.800 for their own reasons.

00:25:40.900 It's probably

00:25:43.060 our racism

00:25:44.080 that even puts them

00:25:45.180 in the same category.

00:25:46.780 Right?

00:25:48.140 If we're being honest,

00:25:49.420 it's only a little bit

00:25:50.440 of racism

00:25:51.080 that says,

00:25:52.300 oh,

00:25:52.480 all these four people

00:25:53.500 have something in common

00:25:54.500 aside from music.

00:25:56.840 They're black. 0.74

00:25:58.360 So your racism

00:25:59.500 says it's a pattern

00:26:00.520 and then you see it

00:26:01.380 and then you make

00:26:02.000 a lot more of it

00:26:02.860 than it really is,

00:26:03.860 but I think

00:26:04.480 that that would be

00:26:05.320 affecting the black population

00:26:07.400 as well as

00:26:08.260 everybody else

00:26:08.980 who's looking at it.

00:26:09.780 I think it matters.

00:26:12.460 I think that fourth rapper,

00:26:14.780 you know,

00:26:14.980 the addition of Lil Wayne

00:26:16.160 takes it from

00:26:17.700 I think I'm sort of

00:26:18.900 almost seeing a pattern

00:26:20.020 to,

00:26:21.100 oh,

00:26:21.200 there's a pattern.

00:26:22.240 Even if there isn't,

00:26:23.740 you're now convinced

00:26:24.560 there is.

00:26:25.580 Okay.

00:26:27.760 Look at all the things

00:26:28.840 we don't know

00:26:29.640 about coronavirus.

00:26:31.140 Look at all the things

00:26:31.800 we don't know

00:26:32.260 about life,

00:26:32.900 really.

00:26:33.680 But let me just run you

00:26:35.260 through the things

00:26:35.940 that we don't know,

00:26:36.940 which is astonishing.

00:26:39.700 All right.

00:26:40.740 Number one,

00:26:41.500 I saw there was some

00:26:42.800 pullback on Regeneron.

00:26:45.580 So that's the drug

00:26:46.620 that the president

00:26:47.280 was touting

00:26:48.260 that he thinks

00:26:49.080 helped them a lot.

00:26:50.260 But apparently

00:26:51.040 Regeneron is not

00:26:52.320 giving the results

00:26:54.340 that they want

00:26:55.080 if you're

00:26:55.680 in a late stage

00:26:57.220 of disease.

00:26:58.320 So I think

00:26:59.000 they stopped

00:26:59.600 testing it

00:27:00.460 on people

00:27:00.940 who were at

00:27:01.540 the ventilator stage

00:27:02.980 because it was

00:27:04.000 maybe hurting them

00:27:04.940 more than it was helping.

00:27:05.760 Or at least

00:27:06.320 there was an indication

00:27:07.160 it might.

00:27:08.400 So Regeneron

00:27:09.180 is not quite

00:27:10.680 the magic pill

00:27:11.720 that you thought it was

00:27:12.700 because it might

00:27:13.900 only work well

00:27:14.800 if you get it early.

00:27:17.240 Remdesivir

00:27:17.720 went from

00:27:18.680 hey,

00:27:19.500 this is great

00:27:20.180 to at the moment

00:27:21.960 the tests

00:27:23.520 are kind of

00:27:24.200 weak on remdesivir,

00:27:25.480 right?

00:27:26.040 So we thought it worked

00:27:27.300 but now we think

00:27:28.200 maybe it doesn't

00:27:29.020 based on

00:27:29.600 some

00:27:30.500 clinical trials.

00:27:32.540 What about

00:27:32.900 hydroxychloroquine?

00:27:34.080 If you look

00:27:36.340 at the news

00:27:37.200 on the left

00:27:37.760 and the tweets

00:27:38.360 on the left

00:27:38.960 they will say

00:27:40.320 it has been proven

00:27:41.360 not to be effective.

00:27:44.040 But all you have

00:27:45.320 to do is get

00:27:45.800 on Twitter

00:27:46.220 and there will be

00:27:47.080 people tweeting

00:27:47.860 all kinds of studies

00:27:49.040 usually retrospective

00:27:51.540 but some of them

00:27:52.200 even clinical trials

00:27:54.280 which purport

00:27:55.680 that it works

00:27:56.760 just great.

00:27:59.020 Now both of these

00:27:59.980 bits of data

00:28:01.360 which are opposites

00:28:02.420 they can't both

00:28:03.220 be true

00:28:03.880 but they are reported

00:28:05.320 with equal vigor.

00:28:07.480 There's as much

00:28:08.280 energy around

00:28:09.420 saying

00:28:09.840 hydroxychloroquine

00:28:11.320 clearly works

00:28:12.720 and all the information

00:28:13.740 is supporting it

00:28:15.020 as there is

00:28:16.240 people saying

00:28:16.940 it's been studied

00:28:17.740 to death

00:28:18.200 and there's no

00:28:18.760 impact whatsoever.

00:28:20.860 Both those

00:28:21.680 truths

00:28:22.260 are existing

00:28:23.840 in full force

00:28:25.060 and they

00:28:25.880 can't both

00:28:26.580 be true.

00:28:27.560 They just

00:28:27.920 can't be.

00:28:28.320 Now I'm of the opinion

00:28:30.540 that if it were

00:28:32.420 a big deal

00:28:33.100 we would have

00:28:33.840 noticed it

00:28:34.640 meaning it would

00:28:35.580 just be so obvious

00:28:36.820 that you wouldn't

00:28:38.440 even need

00:28:38.860 a clinical trial

00:28:39.780 if it were

00:28:40.720 as effective

00:28:41.320 as its initial

00:28:42.580 proponent said.

00:28:43.860 I don't know

00:28:44.500 if it has

00:28:44.960 no impact

00:28:47.380 I just don't

00:28:48.720 think it has

00:28:49.360 some kind of

00:28:50.160 a magic pill

00:28:51.640 impact.

00:28:53.440 So we don't know

00:28:54.460 about hydroxychloroquine

00:28:55.740 we still don't

00:28:57.380 know vitamin D

00:28:58.420 we know it's

00:28:59.300 good for you

00:28:59.920 but we don't

00:29:00.440 know how much

00:29:01.100 of a difference

00:29:01.580 that's making

00:29:02.200 and we're still

00:29:03.500 arguing about

00:29:04.280 whether masks

00:29:05.720 work.

00:29:07.460 So yesterday

00:29:08.100 I was tweeting

00:29:08.940 about somebody

00:29:09.760 you've seen

00:29:11.060 a bunch of

00:29:11.480 these

00:29:11.660 somebody will

00:29:12.720 show a bunch

00:29:13.200 of graphs

00:29:13.800 of coronavirus

00:29:15.060 infections

00:29:15.900 by state

00:29:17.080 or country

00:29:17.720 or whatever

00:29:18.220 and they'll

00:29:19.260 say here's

00:29:20.000 the point

00:29:20.460 that masks

00:29:21.300 were mandatory

00:29:22.040 and you can

00:29:23.460 see that

00:29:23.980 after the masks

00:29:25.280 were mandatory

00:29:26.020 the infections

00:29:27.240 went way up

00:29:28.220 and then they

00:29:29.360 sort of

00:29:29.860 started trailing

00:29:30.700 off on their

00:29:31.520 own for reasons

00:29:32.520 that nobody

00:29:33.480 couldn't understand.

00:29:35.180 Now let me

00:29:36.540 draw you the

00:29:37.880 picture in your

00:29:38.500 mind.

00:29:39.440 So you're

00:29:39.700 looking at a

00:29:40.160 graph that's

00:29:40.840 mostly slightly

00:29:42.620 rising

00:29:43.180 it's closer

00:29:44.180 to flat

00:29:44.780 but it's

00:29:45.220 slightly rising

00:29:46.020 and then

00:29:46.840 suddenly it

00:29:47.400 zooms up

00:29:48.040 to a mountain

00:29:48.900 and then the

00:29:50.140 mountain crests

00:29:51.060 and it goes

00:29:51.440 back down

00:29:52.040 so that's

00:29:52.460 what a surge

00:29:53.940 of coronavirus

00:29:54.980 would look

00:29:55.540 like in a

00:29:55.980 graph.

00:29:56.860 Now imagine

00:29:57.300 on the graph

00:29:57.900 that at the

00:29:58.500 base of the

00:29:59.240 mountain part

00:30:00.020 it's labeled

00:30:01.300 masks become

00:30:02.920 mandatory

00:30:03.360 and it takes

00:30:04.900 about a month

00:30:05.660 to get to

00:30:06.720 the top

00:30:07.160 of that peak

00:30:07.920 before it

00:30:09.380 trails off.

00:30:10.800 What would

00:30:11.460 be your

00:30:11.900 conclusion

00:30:12.560 if somebody

00:30:13.520 showed you

00:30:14.040 a bunch

00:30:14.420 of graphs

00:30:15.020 where every

00:30:16.160 time the

00:30:16.640 masks are

00:30:17.360 mandatory

00:30:17.940 the infections

00:30:20.280 still get

00:30:21.060 way way worse

00:30:21.960 after the

00:30:22.980 masks are

00:30:23.660 mandatory?

00:30:24.480 How would

00:30:25.060 you interpret

00:30:25.840 those graphs

00:30:27.380 given that

00:30:28.340 there's a

00:30:28.680 bunch of

00:30:29.120 them?

00:30:29.520 A whole

00:30:29.800 bunch of

00:30:30.240 them?

00:30:31.520 What would

00:30:32.140 you say?

00:30:32.820 Would you

00:30:33.200 say masks

00:30:34.900 don't work

00:30:35.780 because every

00:30:37.440 time you have

00:30:38.140 them as

00:30:38.580 mandatory you

00:30:39.920 can see on

00:30:40.460 the graph that

00:30:41.060 the infections

00:30:41.680 go out of

00:30:42.440 control higher

00:30:43.460 therefore they

00:30:44.800 don't work

00:30:45.260 right?

00:30:45.840 Because that's

00:30:46.340 what the

00:30:46.840 people tweeting

00:30:48.120 those graphs

00:30:48.780 are telling

00:30:49.220 you.

00:30:49.860 They're telling

00:30:50.360 you look at

00:30:50.840 the graph.

00:30:51.960 It's just as

00:30:52.960 plain as the

00:30:53.640 nose on your

00:30:54.200 face that's

00:30:54.800 covered by a

00:30:55.400 mask.

00:30:56.460 It's there's

00:30:58.400 the mask.

00:30:59.660 They're

00:31:00.140 required and

00:31:01.340 then the

00:31:01.640 infections go

00:31:02.420 through the

00:31:02.820 roof.

00:31:03.620 Clearly masks

00:31:04.480 don't work

00:31:05.180 right?

00:31:06.800 And I look

00:31:07.600 at these same

00:31:08.160 graphs and I

00:31:08.840 say that's

00:31:11.660 not what I

00:31:12.160 see.

00:31:13.120 I'm looking

00:31:13.800 at the same

00:31:14.300 graph you're

00:31:14.880 looking at and

00:31:16.200 I'm seeing

00:31:16.680 proof that

00:31:17.280 masks work.

00:31:19.260 Same graph.

00:31:20.140 exactly what I

00:31:21.520 just described

00:31:22.200 to you.

00:31:23.540 Why?

00:31:24.880 Timing.

00:31:26.060 How long

00:31:26.540 does it take

00:31:27.480 for mandatory

00:31:28.980 mask wearing

00:31:29.940 to work itself

00:31:30.860 through the

00:31:31.260 system?

00:31:32.080 Remember you've

00:31:32.940 got some

00:31:33.340 reporting delays

00:31:34.440 and these

00:31:35.740 delays could be

00:31:36.720 a few weeks.

00:31:38.360 So it could be

00:31:39.120 that the day

00:31:39.860 the masks are

00:31:40.740 required you

00:31:42.420 still got a

00:31:43.020 bunch of

00:31:43.400 infections that

00:31:44.180 have not yet

00:31:44.720 been reported

00:31:45.420 and they're

00:31:46.440 going to come

00:31:46.920 in after the

00:31:48.080 masks.

00:31:48.580 So you're

00:31:49.500 going to be

00:31:49.760 reporting a

00:31:50.420 whole bunch

00:31:50.760 of infections

00:31:51.420 that may

00:31:51.940 have been

00:31:52.460 last week's

00:31:53.700 infections.

00:31:55.340 Secondly,

00:31:56.240 do people

00:31:57.120 immediately

00:31:58.240 wear the

00:31:59.960 right kind

00:32:00.500 of masks

00:32:01.260 and do it

00:32:02.460 universally the

00:32:03.500 same day that

00:32:04.260 you put a

00:32:04.820 mask requirement

00:32:06.600 in place?

00:32:08.160 No.

00:32:09.400 No, right?

00:32:11.460 People are not 0.99

00:32:12.460 instantly complying.

00:32:14.340 There's probably

00:32:14.780 a little bit of

00:32:15.380 a time lag

00:32:16.240 before people

00:32:17.000 get the

00:32:17.980 better kind

00:32:18.580 of masks.

00:32:19.900 Maybe they

00:32:20.380 start out

00:32:20.920 with a bad

00:32:23.080 kind of

00:32:23.580 facial covering

00:32:24.540 but then they

00:32:25.140 buy one and

00:32:25.920 now they've

00:32:26.340 got a better

00:32:26.800 mask.

00:32:27.740 So you'd

00:32:28.220 expect that

00:32:28.860 the effectiveness

00:32:29.620 would be a

00:32:30.360 week or two

00:32:30.920 before you're

00:32:32.080 really all

00:32:32.540 masked up,

00:32:33.240 right?

00:32:33.820 Wouldn't you?

00:32:34.880 Then what about

00:32:35.560 the people who

00:32:36.820 are infected

00:32:37.460 and they don't

00:32:39.000 know it yet?

00:32:40.200 So they got

00:32:40.960 the virus

00:32:41.160 yesterday but

00:32:45.000 the mask

00:32:45.520 requirement

00:32:46.060 goes in

00:32:46.600 today.

00:32:47.800 A week

00:32:48.340 from now

00:32:48.880 we realize

00:32:49.940 that they

00:32:50.300 were really

00:32:50.760 sick but

00:32:51.320 we just

00:32:51.660 didn't know

00:32:52.060 it.

00:32:53.360 Where does

00:32:53.880 the infection

00:32:54.520 get recorded?

00:32:55.400 It gets

00:32:55.640 recorded at

00:32:56.300 the point

00:32:56.640 where you

00:32:56.960 discover it,

00:32:58.000 right?

00:32:58.660 So it's

00:32:59.260 going to

00:32:59.520 look like

00:32:59.960 that infection

00:33:00.660 came after

00:33:01.480 the mask

00:33:02.100 but in

00:33:03.000 fact it

00:33:03.700 started before

00:33:04.420 the mask.

00:33:05.860 So here's

00:33:06.860 my larger

00:33:07.380 point.

00:33:08.460 Can I look

00:33:09.920 at those

00:33:10.340 graphs and

00:33:11.160 then conclude

00:33:12.460 that masks

00:33:13.280 work?

00:33:13.920 because there's

00:33:15.220 a little bit

00:33:15.620 of a time

00:33:16.060 lag but in

00:33:16.820 every case

00:33:17.620 on those

00:33:20.020 graphs the

00:33:21.180 infections would

00:33:22.140 reach a peak

00:33:23.200 and then trail

00:33:23.920 off very

00:33:24.420 quickly.

00:33:25.680 To me

00:33:26.280 that's a

00:33:26.860 picture of

00:33:27.360 masks working

00:33:28.300 perfectly.

00:33:29.520 Just the way

00:33:30.380 I would have

00:33:30.900 expected them

00:33:31.740 to work.

00:33:32.660 I would not

00:33:33.340 expect them

00:33:33.900 to work on

00:33:34.500 the day of

00:33:35.020 implementation.

00:33:36.500 I would

00:33:36.820 expect to

00:33:37.400 see the

00:33:37.900 effect maybe

00:33:39.500 three weeks

00:33:40.140 later which

00:33:41.540 is about what

00:33:42.200 the graphs

00:33:42.780 show.

00:33:43.920 Now is

00:33:45.400 my

00:33:45.640 interpretation

00:33:46.260 accurate that

00:33:47.860 these graphs

00:33:49.060 that people

00:33:49.600 are using to

00:33:50.260 show that

00:33:50.680 masks definitely

00:33:52.020 don't work

00:33:52.960 is my

00:33:54.040 interpretation

00:33:54.480 correct that

00:33:55.820 those same

00:33:56.360 graphs are

00:33:56.960 proving that

00:33:57.640 they do

00:33:58.040 work?

00:33:59.100 Which one

00:33:59.640 of us is

00:34:00.040 correct?

00:34:01.000 Do you

00:34:01.380 know?

00:34:02.220 Before I

00:34:02.840 started talking

00:34:03.480 about this did

00:34:04.200 you say to

00:34:04.620 yourself well

00:34:05.160 obviously if

00:34:05.900 infections go

00:34:06.740 up like

00:34:07.700 crazy after

00:34:08.680 masks obviously

00:34:10.500 they don't

00:34:11.060 work.

00:34:11.420 did you

00:34:12.480 think that

00:34:12.960 before I

00:34:13.520 started talking?

00:34:14.980 Now I'm

00:34:15.800 not going to

00:34:16.100 make a claim

00:34:16.680 that my

00:34:17.240 interpretation

00:34:17.700 is correct

00:34:18.800 because if

00:34:24.140 you know how

00:34:24.720 to analyze

00:34:25.220 data you

00:34:26.220 should be

00:34:26.580 asking yourself

00:34:27.340 this where

00:34:28.720 is my

00:34:29.140 comparison to

00:34:30.440 that same

00:34:31.180 city or

00:34:32.040 state that

00:34:33.720 had the

00:34:34.880 same problem

00:34:35.520 and then they

00:34:36.760 did not have

00:34:37.540 masks.

00:34:38.100 right?

00:34:40.000 Because you

00:34:40.300 would have to

00:34:40.660 compare place

00:34:41.520 to place.

00:34:42.180 It would have

00:34:42.380 to be the

00:34:42.700 same place

00:34:43.320 to the same

00:34:44.180 place otherwise

00:34:44.840 you're not

00:34:45.360 really comparing.

00:34:48.200 So the real

00:34:49.060 answer is we

00:34:49.720 can't tell from

00:34:50.360 those graphs.

00:34:51.600 Those graphs

00:34:52.380 don't tell you

00:34:53.220 masks work and

00:34:54.780 they don't tell

00:34:55.460 you that masks

00:34:56.140 don't work.

00:34:57.300 They don't tell

00:34:57.840 you anything

00:34:58.280 because we're

00:34:59.480 really really bad

00:35:00.480 at gathering

00:35:01.560 data which

00:35:02.960 and there are

00:35:04.160 other folks on

00:35:04.820 the internet

00:35:05.520 I'm still

00:35:07.640 having conversations

00:35:08.500 with them but

00:35:09.480 there's some

00:35:10.000 thought that

00:35:10.980 even the

00:35:11.580 current number

00:35:12.200 of infections

00:35:12.840 and deaths

00:35:13.480 may be lagged

00:35:14.900 by as much

00:35:15.900 as months.

00:35:17.300 So we don't

00:35:18.160 have data we

00:35:19.260 can rely on

00:35:20.080 in any way

00:35:21.100 about any of

00:35:22.220 this stuff.

00:35:22.720 It's just

00:35:22.980 useless and

00:35:24.440 thinking it's

00:35:25.200 useful is kind

00:35:26.120 of dangerous.

00:35:27.720 All right.

00:35:28.760 I asked on

00:35:29.900 Twitter, I

00:35:31.260 asked how many

00:35:31.980 people have

00:35:32.560 experienced fewer

00:35:34.500 colds and

00:35:35.600 regular flus

00:35:36.480 this season

00:35:37.140 and I think

00:35:38.300 this is again

00:35:39.040 one of those

00:35:39.560 things where

00:35:40.080 this is purely

00:35:41.120 anecdotal but

00:35:43.140 it was the

00:35:43.680 summer so you

00:35:44.980 shouldn't expect

00:35:45.680 that there would

00:35:46.120 be too many

00:35:46.680 colds and flus

00:35:47.480 in the summer

00:35:48.040 but let me

00:35:49.360 ask all of

00:35:51.620 you, do you

00:35:53.820 feel like you've

00:35:54.500 had fewer

00:35:55.320 regular illnesses

00:35:56.740 since the

00:35:59.380 coronavirus issue

00:36:00.820 in say

00:36:01.520 February?

00:36:01.940 I feel like

00:36:04.140 there are

00:36:04.860 fewer of

00:36:05.400 them.

00:36:06.540 Now, I

00:36:07.320 don't know if

00:36:07.640 that's true,

00:36:08.500 it's probably

00:36:09.320 a bias but

00:36:10.300 it just feels

00:36:10.860 like there are

00:36:11.300 fewer of

00:36:11.700 them.

00:36:12.560 There's

00:36:13.080 somebody on

00:36:14.040 Twitter who

00:36:15.060 claims to

00:36:15.760 be in the

00:36:16.200 business of

00:36:16.820 selling cold

00:36:18.120 and flu

00:36:18.660 medicines.

00:36:19.840 So it's

00:36:20.140 somebody who's

00:36:20.720 in that

00:36:21.040 industry and

00:36:22.320 they say that

00:36:23.020 the sales of

00:36:24.200 regular cold

00:36:25.320 and flu

00:36:25.740 medicines is

00:36:26.620 down.

00:36:27.760 Meaning that

00:36:28.700 regular colds

00:36:29.500 and flus may

00:36:30.840 be substantially

00:36:31.520 down, which

00:36:32.740 would make

00:36:33.120 sense, right?

00:36:34.160 Because we're

00:36:34.560 socially distancing.

00:36:35.960 Now, if it's

00:36:37.220 true that

00:36:38.040 regular colds

00:36:39.200 and regular

00:36:39.920 flus are

00:36:40.600 way down and

00:36:42.060 the lack of

00:36:43.020 sales of those

00:36:43.920 products that

00:36:44.740 treat them

00:36:45.340 would suggest

00:36:46.040 that's the

00:36:46.460 case, then

00:36:49.420 wouldn't that

00:36:50.120 be pretty good

00:36:50.880 evidence that

00:36:51.780 masks work for 0.99

00:36:52.900 coronavirus?

00:36:54.900 Now, that's

00:36:55.840 not proof because

00:36:57.600 regular colds and

00:36:58.940 regular virus may

00:37:00.660 be some

00:37:01.000 differences that

00:37:01.900 are not

00:37:02.720 obvious to

00:37:03.280 me as a

00:37:03.740 non-medical

00:37:04.260 person, but

00:37:05.300 if it were

00:37:05.920 true, just

00:37:06.860 take this as

00:37:07.860 a hypothetical,

00:37:09.240 if it could

00:37:09.880 be proven that

00:37:11.440 our regular

00:37:12.080 colds and

00:37:12.780 regular flu,

00:37:15.200 seasonal flu,

00:37:15.860 are way down

00:37:16.560 this year, if

00:37:17.940 we could prove

00:37:18.540 that was true,

00:37:20.240 would you be

00:37:20.920 willing to say

00:37:21.460 that masks

00:37:22.020 work or would

00:37:24.200 you still

00:37:24.600 fight it?

00:37:25.180 just asking.

00:37:28.320 Now, here's

00:37:29.200 the latest good

00:37:30.220 thinking that

00:37:30.900 I've heard on

00:37:31.480 masks, and it

00:37:32.300 goes like this.

00:37:34.680 If you and I

00:37:35.900 are in a small

00:37:37.020 room, and let's

00:37:38.140 say one of us

00:37:38.820 has the

00:37:39.260 coronavirus, and

00:37:40.080 we both have

00:37:40.740 masks, and you

00:37:42.360 and I stay in

00:37:43.080 that small room

00:37:44.000 breathing our

00:37:45.360 shared air for

00:37:48.280 hours at a time,

00:37:49.360 and one of us

00:37:50.020 has the

00:37:50.360 infection, what

00:37:51.580 are the odds

00:37:52.140 that the other

00:37:52.680 one will get

00:37:53.260 the infection?

00:37:54.560 Pretty good.

00:37:56.060 Pretty good.

00:37:57.380 And it's because

00:37:58.080 even though the

00:37:59.140 mask might be

00:38:00.260 blocking some of

00:38:02.220 my direct air

00:38:03.160 flow going

00:38:04.100 directly out, the

00:38:05.440 air is going

00:38:06.060 somewhere.

00:38:07.220 You exhale, so

00:38:08.360 it's coming out

00:38:09.300 the sides of the

00:38:09.980 masks or whatever.

00:38:11.460 So it's going

00:38:12.120 somewhere.

00:38:13.240 So eventually, if

00:38:14.660 you and I stay in

00:38:15.460 the same closed

00:38:16.360 room with the

00:38:17.100 windows closed and

00:38:18.180 bad ventilation, it

00:38:19.820 doesn't matter if

00:38:20.500 we have masks or

00:38:21.420 not.

00:38:22.120 So in that one

00:38:22.960 scenario, do

00:38:24.040 masks work?

00:38:25.820 I'd say closer

00:38:27.100 to no than

00:38:27.880 yes.

00:38:29.180 Meaning that if

00:38:29.940 you stay in that

00:38:30.640 room long enough

00:38:31.560 and the ventilation

00:38:32.380 is bad enough and

00:38:33.700 one of you has

00:38:34.440 coronavirus, the

00:38:36.140 other one's going

00:38:36.740 to get it.

00:38:37.680 It's just a matter

00:38:38.360 of time, right?

00:38:40.260 But suppose you

00:38:42.800 and I are at a

00:38:43.920 bar, and it's a

00:38:46.040 big bar, and I

00:38:47.960 come up to you

00:38:48.680 drunkenly and I

00:38:50.340 talk a little too

00:38:51.500 close to you, and

00:38:53.000 I've got my mask

00:38:53.840 on.

00:38:56.260 It's a brief

00:38:57.400 encounter.

00:38:58.460 Do you think that

00:38:59.300 would make a

00:38:59.800 difference?

00:39:00.260 I think yes, because

00:39:02.020 the mask would be

00:39:03.180 dispersing my

00:39:06.380 airflow out the

00:39:07.520 sides, and it

00:39:08.180 would be out

00:39:09.120 there, but it

00:39:09.620 wouldn't be like

00:39:11.340 a hose of my

00:39:13.700 bad virus directly

00:39:14.860 into your mouth

00:39:15.540 and your eyes.

00:39:16.220 So if I'm

00:39:17.140 talking to you

00:39:17.800 from two feet

00:39:18.480 away, I'm not

00:39:19.740 jamming virus into

00:39:21.040 your face.

00:39:22.020 It's sort of

00:39:22.520 coming out the

00:39:23.040 sides.

00:39:23.860 That's got to

00:39:24.480 make a difference,

00:39:25.220 right?

00:39:26.060 Doesn't common

00:39:26.720 sense tell you

00:39:27.520 that in that

00:39:28.160 scenario, probably

00:39:30.040 it makes a

00:39:30.600 difference, whereas

00:39:31.820 if you're locked

00:39:32.580 in the tiny room

00:39:33.640 with no ventilation,

00:39:35.180 probably it

00:39:36.020 doesn't.

00:39:37.400 And maybe if

00:39:38.100 you're outdoors,

00:39:38.920 the difference is

00:39:39.720 so small it's not

00:39:40.840 worth it.

00:39:41.660 But we don't

00:39:42.240 know.

00:39:43.220 All right.

00:39:43.560 I tweeted a

00:39:45.360 link so you

00:39:46.380 could see how

00:39:47.000 the CDC estimates

00:39:48.480 the number of

00:39:49.720 regular influenza

00:39:51.300 deaths per year.

00:39:54.220 And the reason I

00:39:55.120 tweeted it is for

00:39:56.120 you to see how

00:39:56.700 ridiculous it is.

00:39:58.200 So I've been

00:39:58.820 making a claim

00:39:59.760 that sounds so

00:40:01.160 ridiculously stupid

00:40:02.620 that nobody

00:40:03.360 believes it.

00:40:04.320 I don't think I've

00:40:05.100 convinced one person

00:40:06.380 that the following

00:40:07.460 is true.

00:40:08.420 But I'll say it

00:40:08.940 again.

00:40:09.960 I like being a

00:40:10.720 contrarian.

00:40:12.020 We don't know

00:40:12.660 how many regular

00:40:13.440 influenza deaths

00:40:14.500 there are every

00:40:15.120 year.

00:40:16.060 And almost all

00:40:17.300 of our conversation

00:40:18.280 about how bad

00:40:19.700 the coronavirus

00:40:20.280 is, is compared

00:40:22.080 to this number

00:40:23.680 we believed was

00:40:24.640 a pretty solid

00:40:25.460 number.

00:40:26.280 The number of

00:40:27.220 regular influenza

00:40:28.540 flu deaths per

00:40:29.600 year, which people

00:40:30.940 say is in the

00:40:31.920 low tens of

00:40:33.300 thousands, but

00:40:34.100 could be in the

00:40:34.720 high tens of

00:40:35.320 thousands if it's

00:40:36.100 a bad year.

00:40:39.120 So look at the

00:40:40.940 CDC and look at

00:40:42.340 the tortured,

00:40:43.880 convoluted way

00:40:44.960 that they

00:40:45.400 estimate it.

00:40:46.980 And if you have

00:40:47.560 any experience

00:40:48.580 in data analysis,

00:40:51.260 and I think you

00:40:52.700 would need it to

00:40:53.640 come to this

00:40:54.180 opinion, as I

00:40:55.400 do, there isn't

00:40:57.700 the slightest

00:40:58.200 chance these numbers

00:40:59.140 are good.

00:41:00.660 Not any.

00:41:01.900 And when I say

00:41:02.640 there's not the

00:41:03.320 slightest chance

00:41:04.020 they're good, I

00:41:04.680 don't mean they're

00:41:05.220 off by 10%.

00:41:06.500 Do you feel me?

00:41:08.360 I mean, they

00:41:09.460 could be off by

00:41:10.580 200%.

00:41:12.660 They could be

00:41:14.460 off by 90%.

00:41:16.360 There's just, when

00:41:18.260 you look at how

00:41:19.020 they calculate it,

00:41:19.920 you can't even

00:41:20.520 understand it.

00:41:22.600 There's a general

00:41:23.600 rule of life that

00:41:24.860 if somebody can't

00:41:25.780 explain something

00:41:26.700 to you, let's

00:41:28.140 say you have

00:41:28.660 average intelligence,

00:41:29.900 if somebody can't

00:41:31.040 explain it to you,

00:41:32.640 it's bullshit.

00:41:34.480 Right?

00:41:35.120 And if somebody

00:41:35.940 has to explain it

00:41:36.800 to you with a

00:41:37.400 whole bunch of

00:41:37.840 word salad, it's

00:41:40.040 not because they're

00:41:40.980 bad at explaining

00:41:42.160 necessarily.

00:41:43.920 It's because there's

00:41:44.660 nothing there to

00:41:45.440 explain.

00:41:46.700 It's just bullshit.

00:41:48.400 So the CDC

00:41:49.300 estimates and the

00:41:51.140 way that they go

00:41:52.040 about doing

00:41:52.860 regular influenza is

00:41:54.680 laughingly ridiculous.

00:41:56.880 And I would like

00:41:57.700 to put this

00:41:58.260 challenge out there.

00:41:59.960 So if there's

00:42:00.660 anybody who, just

00:42:02.140 look at my

00:42:02.620 Twitter feed, I

00:42:03.380 tweeted that within

00:42:04.720 the hour, look at

00:42:06.280 that link.

00:42:06.980 Look how the CDC

00:42:07.800 estimates the

00:42:09.200 influenza deaths.

00:42:10.360 And if you're

00:42:10.860 experienced in

00:42:12.520 data analysis, and

00:42:13.780 that's the important

00:42:14.400 part for this, if

00:42:15.640 you're experienced

00:42:16.420 at it, just look at

00:42:17.960 their explanation, and

00:42:19.620 then tweet at me

00:42:20.320 later that you

00:42:21.900 think that those

00:42:22.620 are useful estimates

00:42:23.800 or not.

00:42:24.740 I think you're just

00:42:25.700 going to laugh when

00:42:26.420 you see it.

00:42:27.880 All right.

00:42:30.480 And here's a

00:42:31.320 little factoid to

00:42:32.580 put on top of

00:42:33.200 this, and I need

00:42:33.760 a fact check on

00:42:34.560 this.

00:42:34.840 So every year we

00:42:36.500 know that there's

00:42:37.180 a vaccination for

00:42:38.300 the regular seasonal

00:42:39.580 influenza.

00:42:41.100 But we also know

00:42:42.300 that in each, in

00:42:43.820 various years, that

00:42:45.480 vaccination can

00:42:46.460 either be pretty

00:42:47.380 good, meaning it'll

00:42:49.060 protect a lot of

00:42:49.940 people, or they

00:42:51.520 didn't quite get the

00:42:52.480 right formulation for

00:42:53.760 the virus that

00:42:54.780 emerged, and it's

00:42:56.240 just sort of not

00:42:57.220 that good.

00:42:57.740 So would you say

00:43:00.280 that on the years

00:43:01.880 that we have the

00:43:02.560 really good and

00:43:03.440 strong version of

00:43:04.720 the vaccine, that

00:43:07.080 the total number

00:43:07.920 of flu deaths

00:43:09.420 should be lower,

00:43:11.440 right?

00:43:11.980 Because that's the

00:43:12.740 year that the

00:43:13.260 vaccine is working

00:43:14.140 really well.

00:43:15.240 Compared to a year

00:43:16.420 where we know the

00:43:17.260 vaccine wasn't a

00:43:18.760 good fit for the

00:43:19.840 virus, and it

00:43:21.100 didn't really protect

00:43:21.920 many people, you

00:43:23.400 would expect that

00:43:24.080 those would be the

00:43:24.820 years you'd have a

00:43:26.040 lot of flu deaths,

00:43:26.740 right?

00:43:28.360 Nope.

00:43:31.340 Nope.

00:43:32.540 Apparently there's

00:43:33.320 no correlation

00:43:34.040 between how good

00:43:35.800 the vaccine is and

00:43:37.780 how many people

00:43:38.400 die.

00:43:39.340 Now I need a fact

00:43:40.240 check on that.

00:43:41.220 Don't take that as

00:43:42.760 true because you

00:43:44.500 heard it on this

00:43:45.100 periscope.

00:43:46.080 I'm explicitly

00:43:47.440 acting for a fact

00:43:48.920 check.

00:43:49.600 This is just

00:43:50.080 something I heard

00:43:50.700 on Twitter, and

00:43:51.720 it could be

00:43:52.420 untrue easily.

00:43:54.340 All right, moving

00:43:55.340 on.

00:43:55.800 Ian Bremmer, who

00:43:57.720 is always

00:43:58.240 interesting, in

00:43:59.300 part because I

00:44:00.020 can't tell his

00:44:00.740 politics, which

00:44:02.160 is a compliment.

00:44:04.000 Let me give you,

00:44:05.000 let me give Ian

00:44:05.840 Bremmer, one of the

00:44:06.760 Bremmer, one of the

00:44:08.400 best compliments

00:44:09.420 that a Twitter user

00:44:11.680 can ever have.

00:44:13.140 I've been following

00:44:14.060 him for quite some

00:44:15.020 time.

00:44:16.340 I can't tell if he's

00:44:17.500 a Republican or a

00:44:18.440 Democrat or an

00:44:19.280 Independent.

00:44:19.600 Isn't that pretty

00:44:21.780 good?

00:44:22.040 Because he has

00:44:23.620 opinions which seem

00:44:25.140 well-reasoned, that

00:44:26.880 some are anti-Trump,

00:44:28.100 some are pro-Trump,

00:44:29.180 but in all cases,

00:44:30.380 they don't seem

00:44:30.880 crazy.

00:44:32.560 He doesn't seem to

00:44:33.780 have any crazy

00:44:34.480 opinions.

00:44:35.740 I don't agree with

00:44:36.760 them all, but when

00:44:38.060 I don't agree, it's

00:44:38.920 usually there's some

00:44:39.760 assumption that I

00:44:40.660 differ on, or I have

00:44:42.460 a different view of

00:44:43.300 human beings or

00:44:44.140 something.

00:44:44.700 But they're not

00:44:45.300 crazy.

00:44:45.660 So here's one of

00:44:47.580 his not-crazy

00:44:48.760 opinions that I

00:44:50.380 really liked.

00:44:52.560 When, you know,

00:44:53.500 President Trump is

00:44:54.220 often being accused

00:44:55.280 of having autocratic

00:44:56.600 tendencies, meaning

00:44:58.480 that if there was

00:44:59.260 any way he could, he'd

00:45:00.900 stay in office

00:45:01.580 forever.

00:45:02.660 If there was any

00:45:03.360 way he could, he

00:45:04.760 would become a

00:45:05.280 dictator, right?

00:45:06.840 That's one of the

00:45:07.480 biggest complaints

00:45:08.200 about Trump.

00:45:09.600 But then, as Ian

00:45:10.900 Bremmer points out,

00:45:12.220 the pandemic came.

00:45:14.400 Has there ever been

00:45:15.380 a more perfect

00:45:16.280 situation for a

00:45:18.320 would-be dictator

00:45:19.420 to take power?

00:45:22.240 Never.

00:45:23.900 Never.

00:45:24.740 This is as good

00:45:25.580 as it gets.

00:45:26.720 If you want to be

00:45:27.620 a dictator, you

00:45:29.640 want a pandemic.

00:45:31.700 Pandemic is

00:45:32.480 perfect for taking

00:45:34.520 over power.

00:45:36.000 You just say, hey,

00:45:36.920 it's an emergency.

00:45:38.640 You know, martial

00:45:39.200 law, I guess I've

00:45:40.340 got all the power

00:45:40.960 now, it's for your

00:45:41.800 own good.

00:45:42.940 Perfect situation.

00:45:44.100 And it wasn't

00:45:45.220 like the president

00:45:46.240 had to make some

00:45:46.940 kind of snap

00:45:47.640 decision.

00:45:48.740 It wasn't like he

00:45:49.660 made the wrong

00:45:50.160 decision.

00:45:50.680 Oops, I wish I'd

00:45:51.940 gone the other

00:45:52.380 way.

00:45:52.740 I could have been

00:45:53.220 more of a

00:45:53.700 dictator.

00:45:54.360 Because the

00:45:55.200 pandemic was sort

00:45:56.520 of a slow

00:45:57.080 moving, even

00:45:58.080 though it was

00:45:58.400 kind of fast,

00:45:59.140 it was slow

00:46:00.220 enough that he

00:46:02.200 would have made

00:46:02.720 the connection,

00:46:03.600 hey, hey, I

00:46:05.580 can start now and

00:46:07.260 become a dictator.

00:46:08.000 dictator.

00:46:09.120 And we saw

00:46:10.060 nothing like that,

00:46:11.980 as Ian

00:46:13.000 Bremer points

00:46:13.660 out.

00:46:14.280 You saw Trump

00:46:15.580 doing the

00:46:16.160 opposite of

00:46:17.340 trying to

00:46:17.900 consolidate power.

00:46:19.720 Literally the

00:46:20.520 opposite.

00:46:21.560 He didn't use the

00:46:22.640 War Powers Act as 0.89

00:46:24.160 much as his critics

00:46:25.200 think he should.

00:46:26.600 He let the states

00:46:27.740 make lots of

00:46:28.560 decisions, allowed

00:46:30.640 them to have the

00:46:31.240 power.

00:46:31.500 And his biggest

00:46:32.960 critics are

00:46:34.000 complaining that

00:46:34.880 he didn't take

00:46:35.740 enough dictator

00:46:37.860 control and let

00:46:39.760 everybody kind of

00:46:40.780 do their own

00:46:41.220 thing.

00:46:41.640 Didn't have a,

00:46:42.680 you know, even

00:46:43.040 Joe Biden wants

00:46:43.860 to be more of

00:46:44.600 an autocrat and

00:46:45.880 have more of a

00:46:46.920 federal guidelines

00:46:48.780 that the states

00:46:50.240 would have to

00:46:50.880 abide by in some

00:46:52.520 fashion.

00:46:53.620 So I thought that

00:46:54.640 was a great point.

00:46:55.460 If you thought

00:46:56.180 that President

00:46:56.960 Trump would take

00:46:58.420 the first chance

00:47:00.500 to become a

00:47:01.120 dictator, you

00:47:02.560 can't think that

00:47:03.300 anymore because

00:47:04.380 the first chance

00:47:05.220 came and went.

00:47:06.640 And he didn't

00:47:07.160 even take a

00:47:08.220 sniff at it.

00:47:09.520 It'd be one thing

00:47:10.240 if he sort of

00:47:10.880 took a run at it,

00:47:12.260 you know, like he

00:47:13.200 felt it down a

00:47:13.960 little bit, dipped

00:47:15.360 his toe in, or

00:47:16.320 you know, tried to

00:47:17.320 see if he could get

00:47:17.940 a little dictator

00:47:18.660 stuff going.

00:47:20.120 Nothing.

00:47:21.080 He actually ran in

00:47:22.780 the opposite direction

00:47:23.820 of states'

00:47:24.780 rights.

00:47:25.880 Now, we'll always

00:47:26.960 argue whether that

00:47:27.760 was the right choice

00:47:28.780 and his critics will

00:47:30.520 say he should have

00:47:31.100 been more directive.

00:47:33.540 But what you can't

00:47:34.520 argue with anymore

00:47:35.480 is the thought that

00:47:37.500 if he had an

00:47:38.940 opening, he would

00:47:39.780 try to become a

00:47:40.440 dictator.

00:47:41.120 You can rule that

00:47:42.140 out because he has

00:47:43.500 the opening right

00:47:44.180 now, still.

00:47:46.060 I mean, still, right?

00:47:47.120 If he decided, hey,

00:47:48.400 I'm going to

00:47:49.240 consolidate a lot

00:47:50.280 more power, he

00:47:51.280 could still do it

00:47:52.000 because people are

00:47:53.040 still worried about

00:47:53.780 COVID.

00:47:54.900 He just has no,

00:47:55.880 apparently no

00:47:56.480 interest in it.

00:47:57.120 Ali Alexander put

00:48:00.000 together a website

00:48:01.260 so that you can

00:48:02.720 refer people for

00:48:04.020 the fine people

00:48:05.100 hoax.

00:48:05.920 It's called

00:48:06.700 finepeople.org,

00:48:08.580 and it's got a

00:48:09.980 variety of resources

00:48:10.860 there, including the

00:48:11.740 full clip of the

00:48:12.800 fine people statements,

00:48:13.860 and I think I'm there

00:48:16.120 with some clips

00:48:16.920 talking about how it

00:48:18.760 was misinterpreted,

00:48:19.940 et cetera.

00:48:20.800 So just keep that in

00:48:22.180 mind because it's

00:48:23.100 real handy.

00:48:23.680 Every time somebody

00:48:25.360 asks you about

00:48:26.720 the fine people

00:48:27.500 thing, instead of

00:48:29.140 going through that

00:48:30.120 whole debunking

00:48:31.260 hoax thing where

00:48:32.260 they get all

00:48:32.800 confused and

00:48:33.640 everything, just

00:48:34.800 point them at

00:48:35.700 finepeople.org,

00:48:38.220 and excellent work,

00:48:40.220 Ali Alexander, a

00:48:41.920 patriot, because

00:48:44.200 that's, I mean,

00:48:45.540 that's just a

00:48:46.060 service, just a

00:48:47.720 service to the

00:48:48.500 country, and we

00:48:49.360 appreciate that,

00:48:50.320 Ali.

00:48:50.520 Twitter has

00:48:53.760 allowed the New

00:48:54.340 York Post to

00:48:55.040 tweet again, so

00:48:56.900 they looked at

00:48:57.740 their internal

00:48:59.420 policies.

00:49:01.960 Yes, Ali

00:49:02.900 Alexander, that's

00:49:03.920 correct.

00:49:04.420 Somebody is asking.

00:49:05.860 They looked at

00:49:06.460 their policies and

00:49:07.960 decided that they

00:49:08.940 would unblock the

00:49:10.100 New York Post.

00:49:11.580 So that's what

00:49:12.240 people wanted.

00:49:13.160 That's what

00:49:13.660 observers thought

00:49:14.840 was reasonable,

00:49:16.260 and that's what

00:49:17.240 they came around

00:49:18.000 to.

00:49:18.800 And I would like

00:49:19.560 to say this again

00:49:20.500 and again and

00:49:22.060 again.

00:49:22.500 I'll say this as

00:49:23.240 many times as I

00:49:24.720 need to for the

00:49:25.320 rest of my life.

00:49:27.500 If somebody makes

00:49:28.760 a mistake, and

00:49:31.080 then they hear

00:49:31.780 your complaint

00:49:32.480 about the

00:49:33.100 mistake, and

00:49:34.480 then they look

00:49:35.040 into it, they

00:49:36.760 admit they made

00:49:37.580 a mistake, and

00:49:39.320 then they take

00:49:40.240 actions to fix

00:49:41.200 it, not just

00:49:42.080 this one, but

00:49:42.920 in the future,

00:49:44.540 that's good.

00:49:46.860 And you should

00:49:47.700 just be happy

00:49:48.400 about that.

00:49:48.980 And I think

00:49:50.120 Twitter satisfied

00:49:50.980 that in this

00:49:51.860 case.

00:49:52.700 Now, that's not

00:49:53.440 to say that I'm

00:49:55.220 completely happy

00:49:56.100 with the

00:49:56.840 unbiasedness of

00:49:58.120 Twitter.

00:49:59.220 I would say

00:49:59.980 there's room for

00:50:01.940 improvement, if we

00:50:03.840 can be blunt.

00:50:05.580 Room for

00:50:06.320 improvement.

00:50:07.460 But when you

00:50:08.860 see an individual

00:50:09.780 case where you've

00:50:11.400 got a gripe, you

00:50:12.520 make your

00:50:12.960 complaint, they 0.53

00:50:13.820 hear it, they

00:50:14.860 acknowledge a

00:50:15.480 wrong, they fix

00:50:16.280 it, it's a few

00:50:17.540 days later, you

00:50:18.500 wish it had been

00:50:19.180 faster, but it

00:50:20.460 also comes with a

00:50:21.780 permanent change.

00:50:23.100 So it's not just a

00:50:24.100 decision on this

00:50:25.140 one tweet or

00:50:26.280 company, it's a

00:50:27.980 permanent change.

00:50:29.420 I feel like that's

00:50:30.420 about as good as

00:50:31.140 you can do.

00:50:32.420 All right?

00:50:32.820 Oh, by the

00:50:33.460 way, I am

00:50:37.060 remiss for not

00:50:38.240 having done this

00:50:39.000 sooner, and

00:50:40.200 there's no bad

00:50:41.260 intention with

00:50:42.400 this.

00:50:42.700 it has simply

00:50:44.600 slipped my mind.

00:50:46.580 I didn't connect

00:50:47.400 these two things.

00:50:48.660 So let me do it

00:50:49.380 now so that I

00:50:52.880 can close that

00:50:54.360 gap.

00:50:55.720 I do have

00:50:56.960 investments in

00:50:58.320 Twitter, meaning

00:51:00.060 that as just a

00:51:01.140 stock purchaser.

00:51:03.020 So several months

00:51:03.780 ago, I said to

00:51:04.640 myself, you know,

00:51:05.660 all these people

00:51:06.460 trying to leave

00:51:07.460 Twitter are not

00:51:08.840 having much success

00:51:10.080 because the other

00:51:11.100 services just don't

00:51:12.020 have that network

00:51:12.820 effect, because it's

00:51:14.040 no fun to be on a

00:51:15.020 service that doesn't

00:51:16.000 have all the people

00:51:16.700 you want to fight

00:51:17.300 with.

00:51:18.340 So I thought, you

00:51:20.140 know, there's just

00:51:21.220 nothing that can

00:51:22.200 compete with Twitter.

00:51:23.100 It's just such a

00:51:23.880 dominant position.

00:51:25.100 So I bought a stock

00:51:26.040 in them about, I

00:51:27.960 forget, six months

00:51:28.960 ago or something.

00:51:30.180 Turned out to be

00:51:31.140 tremendously good

00:51:32.320 timing, because

00:51:34.200 they've had quite a

00:51:35.360 bit of growth, even

00:51:36.080 though they went

00:51:36.500 down 20% yesterday.

00:51:37.860 I'm still way in

00:51:38.700 the plus.

00:51:39.320 So now you

00:51:42.720 know that just

00:51:43.240 for full disclosure.

00:51:45.080 But, having

00:51:46.320 said that, I

00:51:48.800 still maintain

00:51:49.660 that if they

00:51:50.360 fix something that

00:51:51.380 needs to be

00:51:51.960 fixed, we should

00:51:53.080 only be happy

00:51:53.840 about it, just

00:51:54.960 in general.

00:51:56.100 But there's

00:51:56.700 still big issues

00:51:57.940 that need to be

00:51:59.220 addressed.

00:51:59.920 All right.

00:52:03.540 Trump did one

00:52:04.680 of the best

00:52:05.160 persuasion plays

00:52:06.300 this week that

00:52:08.720 I've seen.

00:52:10.480 And I always

00:52:11.240 tell you that he's

00:52:12.000 good at picking up

00:52:12.800 free money.

00:52:13.920 There's just

00:52:14.260 something, if

00:52:14.780 there's just money

00:52:15.400 laying on the

00:52:15.980 table and nobody's

00:52:17.240 going to pick it

00:52:17.780 up, he just

00:52:18.920 notices it and

00:52:19.880 says, hey,

00:52:20.380 anybody?

00:52:21.160 Anybody?

00:52:21.620 Is this free

00:52:22.120 money?

00:52:22.440 Belong to

00:52:22.780 anybody?

00:52:23.180 All right.

00:52:24.040 I'll take it.

00:52:25.540 And this felt

00:52:26.940 like that.

00:52:28.260 And when I

00:52:28.720 describe this, I

00:52:30.320 think you're

00:52:30.780 going to have the

00:52:31.080 same reaction I

00:52:31.820 did, which is,

00:52:32.880 why didn't I

00:52:33.920 think of that?

00:52:35.220 All right?

00:52:35.540 Here it is.

00:52:36.100 Trump points

00:52:37.880 out, and I'm

00:52:38.500 going to paraphrase

00:52:40.040 his idea, not

00:52:41.940 his words, but

00:52:42.920 I'll paraphrase

00:52:43.840 his idea.

00:52:44.560 He tweeted

00:52:45.020 that, in

00:52:46.060 effect, and

00:52:46.640 again, these

00:52:47.120 are my words

00:52:47.840 putting on

00:52:48.360 what I

00:52:48.820 interpret as

00:52:49.560 his notion,

00:52:52.580 that imagine

00:52:53.580 that the

00:52:54.080 Supreme Court

00:52:54.840 is asked to

00:52:55.760 rule on the

00:52:56.780 election.

00:52:58.120 Pretty high

00:52:58.720 likelihood,

00:52:59.420 wouldn't you

00:52:59.780 say?

00:53:00.700 There'll be

00:53:01.140 something about

00:53:01.840 the election

00:53:02.360 outcome that is

00:53:03.860 likely to get to

00:53:04.860 the Supreme

00:53:05.440 Court.

00:53:06.400 We all feel

00:53:07.240 that, right?

00:53:07.880 Not 100%, but I

00:53:09.860 feel like, I

00:53:10.940 don't know, 75%

00:53:12.400 chance something

00:53:13.580 will end up in

00:53:14.280 the Supreme

00:53:14.740 Court, and it

00:53:15.880 might make the

00:53:16.460 difference between

00:53:17.220 who is president.

00:53:19.100 We're on the

00:53:19.580 same page.

00:53:21.060 Trump points out

00:53:22.000 the following,

00:53:23.380 and again, this is

00:53:25.000 my description of

00:53:25.940 it, not his.

00:53:27.400 Imagine that the

00:53:29.160 justices have

00:53:30.080 this decision,

00:53:31.820 election, and

00:53:32.920 they can go

00:53:33.520 one way, which

00:53:34.540 they know will

00:53:35.340 put Trump in

00:53:36.040 office.

00:53:36.900 If they go the

00:53:37.800 other way, it

00:53:38.540 puts Biden in

00:53:39.480 office.

00:53:40.940 If they put

00:53:41.780 Trump in

00:53:42.260 office, life

00:53:43.700 goes on, right?

00:53:45.260 The Supreme

00:53:45.780 Court's the

00:53:46.380 Supreme Court.

00:53:47.860 Yeah, there will

00:53:48.340 be some, you

00:53:49.340 know, riots in

00:53:50.080 the street, but

00:53:50.760 eventually we'll

00:53:51.420 get over it.

00:53:52.600 Life will go

00:53:53.160 on.

00:53:54.300 Now, suppose

00:53:54.900 they pick

00:53:55.400 Biden.

00:53:57.200 Biden has

00:53:58.140 threatened, he

00:54:00.280 doesn't use the

00:54:01.020 word threatened,

00:54:01.820 but he's

00:54:02.380 suggested, he's

00:54:03.320 hinted, that

00:54:04.840 there's a good

00:54:05.380 chance that he

00:54:06.540 would increase

00:54:07.200 the number of

00:54:08.140 justices on the

00:54:09.080 court.

00:54:10.120 Now, given that

00:54:10.960 we know the

00:54:11.540 justices do not

00:54:12.840 favor that, I'm

00:54:14.120 not a mind

00:54:14.720 reader, but we

00:54:15.760 know what Ruth

00:54:17.260 Bader Ginsburg

00:54:18.120 said, that nine

00:54:19.200 was the right

00:54:19.680 number, and as

00:54:20.720 soon as you

00:54:21.180 start messing

00:54:22.240 around with that

00:54:22.940 number, you

00:54:24.340 delegitimize the

00:54:26.500 Supreme Court,

00:54:27.760 because then it

00:54:28.320 just becomes a

00:54:29.360 captive of the

00:54:30.340 political process,

00:54:31.360 because the

00:54:32.160 next president

00:54:32.820 will just, you

00:54:33.700 know, add some

00:54:34.340 justices until

00:54:35.320 there's control.

00:54:37.540 So, you're the

00:54:39.440 Supreme Court, and

00:54:41.220 you've got to make

00:54:41.860 a decision, and

00:54:43.540 one of them, one

00:54:44.460 way we'll put

00:54:45.020 Biden in the

00:54:45.720 presidency, and

00:54:46.940 delegitimize your

00:54:49.300 job.

00:54:50.780 You're on the

00:54:51.340 Supreme Court, are

00:54:53.000 you going to make

00:54:53.720 a choice that

00:54:55.280 would delegitimize

00:54:56.600 the Supreme Court,

00:54:57.960 because that's

00:54:58.440 what a Biden

00:54:58.920 presidency promises

00:55:00.660 to do?

00:55:01.840 I mean, really?

00:55:03.220 That's not even

00:55:04.080 guessing?

00:55:05.380 He's going to do

00:55:06.520 a commission to

00:55:07.720 study, what's he

00:55:10.200 call it, reforming

00:55:11.220 the court, which

00:55:12.440 would include term

00:55:13.680 limits, maybe, or

00:55:15.860 packing the court,

00:55:16.860 adding people.

00:55:18.200 Those are two

00:55:18.940 things that you

00:55:19.580 can be pretty

00:55:20.300 certain the

00:55:21.380 sitting justices

00:55:22.460 do not favor.

00:55:23.380 So, do you

00:55:24.660 think that the

00:55:25.800 justices of the

00:55:26.980 Supreme Court will

00:55:28.600 ever come to a

00:55:30.440 decision that

00:55:31.760 would make the

00:55:32.580 Supreme Court

00:55:33.720 irrelevant?

00:55:37.320 Is there?

00:55:38.800 Now, think about

00:55:39.620 the fact, think

00:55:40.760 about this.

00:55:42.160 Think about the

00:55:42.920 fact that you

00:55:43.500 never had that

00:55:44.320 idea.

00:55:46.260 Don't you feel

00:55:46.960 dumb?

00:55:47.800 I did.

00:55:48.480 The moment I

00:55:49.180 read that, I

00:55:49.720 read that tweet

00:55:50.340 from Trump, and

00:55:51.060 I thought, oh,

00:55:52.580 my God, why

00:55:54.560 is he the first

00:55:55.360 person to think

00:55:56.200 of this?

00:55:57.200 Or, you know,

00:55:57.720 somebody may have

00:55:58.380 suggested it to

00:55:59.080 him.

00:55:59.480 But have you

00:55:59.900 seen this on

00:56:00.500 the news?

00:56:01.720 Have you seen

00:56:02.480 the news covering

00:56:03.940 the fact that if

00:56:05.360 the Supreme Court

00:56:06.240 votes on it, they

00:56:07.560 will be voting to

00:56:09.320 put themselves into

00:56:10.980 irrelevancy?

00:56:13.240 That's what the

00:56:13.980 vote will be.

00:56:15.180 And they'd know

00:56:15.820 it.

00:56:16.200 It's not just my

00:56:16.940 interpretation.

00:56:18.060 They would know

00:56:18.640 it.

00:56:18.980 They would know

00:56:19.460 that if Biden's

00:56:21.540 supporting vote,

00:56:22.580 would make the

00:56:23.820 Supreme Court and

00:56:24.980 maybe the

00:56:25.500 republic itself

00:56:26.520 irrelevant.

00:56:29.820 So for Trump

00:56:30.960 to, I call it

00:56:32.240 working the

00:56:32.860 refs, you know,

00:56:33.900 he brings up

00:56:34.420 this point so

00:56:35.200 the refs, the

00:56:36.120 Supreme Court,

00:56:37.340 it gets in

00:56:37.860 their head.

00:56:38.980 Because if they

00:56:39.860 weren't thinking

00:56:40.620 about it before,

00:56:42.120 they're thinking

00:56:42.940 about it now.

00:56:44.840 Now, I don't

00:56:45.700 think there was

00:56:46.320 any chance that

00:56:47.020 the Supreme Court

00:56:47.860 would not have

00:56:49.060 had that thought.

00:56:49.800 but the fact

00:56:51.040 that he works

00:56:51.700 the refs like 0.99

00:56:52.520 this, and he

00:56:53.600 does it so

00:56:54.320 well, he's

00:56:55.620 really working

00:56:56.300 the refs right. 0.98

00:56:58.080 And, you

00:56:58.940 know, that'll

00:56:59.460 be one of the

00:57:00.040 things that

00:57:00.720 Trump will

00:57:02.220 probably always

00:57:03.360 be the best

00:57:04.300 there ever was

00:57:06.220 at working

00:57:07.020 the refs.

00:57:08.380 But when you

00:57:09.180 read the history

00:57:09.760 books, it's not

00:57:10.920 going to say

00:57:11.280 that, because

00:57:12.000 it's like a

00:57:13.360 small skill.

00:57:15.000 But he's so

00:57:15.940 good at it, it

00:57:16.740 feels like it

00:57:17.320 should be in the

00:57:17.800 history books,

00:57:18.480 but it won't

00:57:18.840 be.

00:57:21.400 All right, even

00:57:22.260 Bill Maher is

00:57:23.020 saying that the

00:57:24.260 Democrats should

00:57:25.320 not prep for a

00:57:26.840 civil war if

00:57:27.660 they lose the

00:57:28.600 election, which

00:57:30.180 suggests to me

00:57:30.980 that at least

00:57:31.520 Bill Maher is

00:57:32.380 considering a

00:57:33.160 high likelihood

00:57:33.880 that the

00:57:35.280 Democrats will 0.92

00:57:36.000 lose the

00:57:36.420 election.

00:57:37.120 Because you

00:57:37.720 wouldn't be

00:57:38.160 talking about

00:57:38.760 the Democrats

00:57:39.420 going into a

00:57:40.200 civil war if

00:57:41.660 you believe the

00:57:42.560 polls, would

00:57:43.580 you?

00:57:44.600 Do you think

00:57:45.380 Bill Maher

00:57:45.840 believes the

00:57:46.440 polls?

00:57:47.800 Because if

00:57:48.240 you did, why

00:57:48.880 would you

00:57:49.140 even bring

00:57:49.560 up the

00:57:50.420 possibility of

00:57:51.240 a civil war?

00:57:52.600 You wouldn't.

00:57:54.260 Because Biden's

00:57:56.520 going to win,

00:57:57.420 according to the

00:57:58.100 polls.

00:57:58.760 So I think

00:57:59.300 that Bill Maher

00:57:59.900 probably believes

00:58:00.680 the polls as

00:58:01.460 much as, as

00:58:04.640 much as, what's

00:58:06.120 his name, as

00:58:07.520 much as Michael

00:58:08.540 Moore does, which

00:58:09.380 is not at all.

00:58:10.640 And he's advising

00:58:11.940 people to forget

00:58:13.640 about the civil

00:58:14.580 war, and he

00:58:15.180 points out

00:58:15.740 something that's

00:58:16.940 kind of funny.

00:58:17.800 that we don't

00:58:18.640 have a Mason

00:58:19.300 Dixon line, that

00:58:21.440 it wouldn't be a

00:58:22.540 civil war where

00:58:23.480 the South goes 0.67

00:58:25.100 to war against

00:58:25.780 the North.

00:58:26.720 It would be a

00:58:27.440 civil war within

00:58:28.120 your own house.

00:58:30.280 It would be a

00:58:30.960 civil war in

00:58:31.460 your neighborhood.

00:58:32.760 Would everybody

00:58:33.400 just start fighting

00:58:34.480 with their

00:58:34.840 co-workers?

00:58:35.480 How would you

00:58:35.800 even have a

00:58:36.300 civil war?

00:58:37.220 It's hard to

00:58:37.680 have a civil

00:58:38.120 war when you're

00:58:38.700 all living among

00:58:39.420 each other.

00:58:40.180 That would be

00:58:40.700 pretty messy.

00:58:42.220 But he's

00:58:42.760 recommending no

00:58:43.660 civil war, and

00:58:44.400 I think that

00:58:45.180 he probably, I

00:58:47.200 think Moore

00:58:47.660 probably represents

00:58:48.760 in many ways the

00:58:50.900 moderate Republican

00:58:51.820 view.

00:58:52.840 And if moderate

00:58:53.740 Republicans are

00:58:54.760 not on board for a

00:58:55.960 civil war, there

00:58:57.620 isn't going to be

00:58:58.100 one, because there

00:58:59.560 aren't enough

00:59:00.160 radical leftists.

00:59:02.940 I feel like all

00:59:03.880 you'd have to do is

00:59:04.500 stop the snack

00:59:05.240 truck, and you

00:59:06.940 could stop the

00:59:07.720 riots.

00:59:08.500 just get rid of

00:59:10.440 that Antifa

00:59:11.180 snack truck.

00:59:12.840 Just, they'll

00:59:13.440 get hungry.

00:59:14.860 Here's a question

00:59:15.640 for you.

00:59:16.400 You've heard it

00:59:16.920 said that the

00:59:17.820 winners are the

00:59:18.540 ones who write

00:59:19.380 history, right?

00:59:20.740 It's the winners

00:59:21.560 who write history.

00:59:23.180 But what is the

00:59:25.140 history of 2020

00:59:26.160 and 2019 going to

00:59:27.440 look like?

00:59:28.900 And really the

00:59:29.640 whole Trump

00:59:30.180 presidency.

00:59:31.000 What is that

00:59:31.400 history going to

00:59:32.000 look like?

00:59:32.880 Who gets to

00:59:33.720 write that?

00:59:34.960 Because I don't

00:59:36.140 know if there's

00:59:36.600 ever been a time

00:59:37.560 in my life,

00:59:38.500 where we

00:59:39.380 couldn't agree,

00:59:41.020 you know, even

00:59:41.660 among the

00:59:42.240 intellectual class,

00:59:43.780 what happened?

00:59:45.480 We can't agree

00:59:46.600 what's happening

00:59:48.340 now and what

00:59:50.000 just did happen.

00:59:51.900 We can't agree

00:59:52.960 on any of it.

00:59:53.620 So forget about

00:59:54.340 the history books.

00:59:55.640 How are you

00:59:56.080 going to write,

00:59:56.740 for example,

00:59:57.960 the history of

00:59:58.920 the Russia

00:59:59.420 collusion hoax?

01:00:01.960 How do you

01:00:02.800 write that?

01:00:03.780 As I say to my

01:00:05.020 smart Democrat

01:00:05.880 friend just

01:00:06.820 yesterday,

01:00:07.940 you know,

01:00:08.320 is he aware

01:00:09.140 that there was

01:00:10.700 an actual

01:00:11.500 coup attempt

01:00:12.480 in the United

01:00:13.740 States

01:00:14.300 by Democrats

01:00:16.240 and that it

01:00:17.400 failed?

01:00:18.480 And he says

01:00:19.580 there was no

01:00:20.340 coup attempt.

01:00:21.420 That's fake

01:00:22.180 news

01:00:22.620 by a bunch

01:00:24.540 of Trump

01:00:25.020 supporters.

01:00:26.100 So how do you

01:00:26.920 write the history?

01:00:28.060 In my opinion,

01:00:29.260 I was here.

01:00:30.800 I watched the

01:00:31.780 news.

01:00:32.160 I watched all

01:00:33.780 the news

01:00:34.400 that would be

01:00:35.060 the subject

01:00:35.700 of whatever

01:00:36.500 history gets

01:00:37.380 written.

01:00:38.340 I didn't miss

01:00:39.100 much of the

01:00:39.600 news.

01:00:40.580 And what I

01:00:41.120 saw was an

01:00:41.980 obvious,

01:00:42.860 well-documented

01:00:43.900 coup attempt.

01:00:47.260 What did you

01:00:48.100 see?

01:00:49.200 So if I were

01:00:50.200 writing the news,

01:00:50.980 I would say,

01:00:51.540 well,

01:00:51.840 these people

01:00:53.020 in the government

01:00:53.640 tried to do

01:00:54.780 a coup attempt

01:00:55.560 and members

01:00:56.820 of intelligence

01:00:58.320 and FBI

01:00:59.320 colluded

01:01:00.420 to try to

01:01:01.020 get rid

01:01:01.320 of the

01:01:01.520 president.

01:01:04.460 So in

01:01:05.540 the comments,

01:01:06.280 somebody is

01:01:06.780 saying,

01:01:07.220 OMG,

01:01:08.300 no coup

01:01:08.860 attempt.

01:01:10.000 And I

01:01:11.840 have to say

01:01:12.460 that I

01:01:13.560 acknowledge

01:01:14.100 that people

01:01:15.000 on the left

01:01:15.560 believe there

01:01:16.300 was no coup

01:01:16.900 attempt.

01:01:18.140 But it's

01:01:19.320 mind-boggling

01:01:20.160 when you

01:01:21.900 look at

01:01:22.460 the evidence

01:01:23.640 that's public

01:01:24.360 and indisputed.

01:01:25.980 So if you

01:01:26.680 only take the

01:01:27.480 evidence that's

01:01:28.300 not disputed,

01:01:30.260 the coup is

01:01:31.100 right there.

01:01:32.140 It's as obvious

01:01:32.780 as it could

01:01:33.340 possibly be.

01:01:34.540 Now,

01:01:34.860 what it

01:01:35.140 probably wasn't

01:01:36.400 is everybody

01:01:37.920 involved meeting

01:01:39.380 on a Zoom

01:01:40.280 call to plot

01:01:41.420 the overthrow

01:01:42.060 of the president.

01:01:43.040 I don't think

01:01:43.560 that happened.

01:01:44.700 I think everybody

01:01:45.460 just knew what

01:01:46.140 to do.

01:01:47.680 Everybody knew

01:01:48.460 that anything

01:01:49.040 they could do

01:01:49.680 against the

01:01:50.180 president would

01:01:50.880 be useful.

01:01:55.040 Yeah,

01:01:55.440 so to me,

01:01:56.880 it looks

01:01:57.320 obviously

01:01:58.480 like we

01:01:59.320 observed it.

01:02:01.260 We're still

01:02:01.780 observing the

01:02:02.460 aftermath of it.

01:02:03.800 And if I were

01:02:04.360 writing the

01:02:04.800 history book,

01:02:05.400 I would write

01:02:05.860 it like that.

01:02:06.540 I would say

01:02:06.940 there was a

01:02:07.340 coup attempt.

01:02:08.340 It was sort

01:02:09.120 of a loosely

01:02:11.060 organized coup

01:02:12.340 attempt.

01:02:14.160 But if

01:02:15.680 somebody who

01:02:16.240 is a Democrat

01:02:16.760 writes it,

01:02:18.080 they're going

01:02:18.440 to say that

01:02:19.040 Russia tried

01:02:20.480 to interfere

01:02:21.100 with the election

01:02:21.800 and there's

01:02:22.420 still some

01:02:22.960 suggestion

01:02:23.500 that the

01:02:24.100 Trump

01:02:24.420 administration

01:02:25.060 talked to

01:02:26.320 the Russians

01:02:26.760 too much

01:02:27.320 and we're

01:02:27.660 not clear

01:02:29.120 what they

01:02:29.560 did or

01:02:30.800 something like

01:02:31.400 that.

01:02:32.540 So this

01:02:34.620 is an honest

01:02:35.220 question.

01:02:36.540 How do you

01:02:37.100 write the

01:02:37.500 history?

01:02:38.840 If you see

01:02:39.460 Biden out there

01:02:40.200 saying that

01:02:40.720 the president

01:02:41.220 called service

01:02:42.380 people suckers

01:02:43.340 and losers,

01:02:44.380 which as far

01:02:45.280 as we know

01:02:45.720 did not

01:02:46.160 happen.

01:02:47.520 So what

01:02:47.800 do the history

01:02:48.280 books say?

01:02:49.280 Do the history

01:02:49.960 books say he

01:02:50.560 did say that?

01:02:51.920 Or do the

01:02:52.580 history books

01:02:53.100 say he

01:02:53.440 didn't say

01:02:53.840 that and it

01:02:54.320 was claimed

01:02:54.740 that he

01:02:55.020 said that?

01:02:55.820 How about

01:02:56.200 the fine

01:02:56.760 people hoax?

01:02:58.040 Do the

01:02:58.340 history books

01:02:59.040 write that

01:02:59.520 as a hoax?

01:03:00.620 Or do they

01:03:01.040 write that

01:03:01.480 like the

01:03:02.560 hoax actually

01:03:03.160 happened?

01:03:05.360 How about

01:03:06.000 the Hunter

01:03:06.420 Biden laptop

01:03:07.340 story?

01:03:08.860 Will the

01:03:09.340 history write

01:03:10.120 it that that

01:03:11.380 was a real

01:03:11.980 thing that

01:03:13.440 got ignored

01:03:14.080 by the media?

01:03:15.200 Or will

01:03:15.840 history just

01:03:16.820 ignore it the

01:03:17.740 same as the

01:03:18.160 media?

01:03:19.080 These are

01:03:19.680 pretty big

01:03:20.300 questions.

01:03:21.960 And let

01:03:23.180 me ask you

01:03:23.640 this.

01:03:25.000 I don't

01:03:25.820 remember if

01:03:26.360 I talked

01:03:28.160 about this

01:03:28.700 before, so

01:03:29.460 tell me in

01:03:30.200 the comments

01:03:30.620 if I already

01:03:31.080 talked about

01:03:31.520 this.

01:03:32.440 You've heard

01:03:33.000 of the

01:03:33.260 Gelman

01:03:33.720 amnesia

01:03:34.460 effect,

01:03:35.060 where if

01:03:35.660 you're an

01:03:35.940 expert on

01:03:36.560 a topic

01:03:37.020 and you

01:03:37.840 read a

01:03:38.240 news report

01:03:38.860 about that

01:03:39.320 topic, you

01:03:39.900 can tell

01:03:40.420 all the

01:03:40.940 factual errors

01:03:43.020 in it because

01:03:43.660 you just

01:03:44.040 happen to be

01:03:44.500 an expert

01:03:44.880 on that

01:03:45.300 topic.

01:03:46.140 But you

01:03:46.600 read any

01:03:47.080 other topic

01:03:47.740 in which you

01:03:48.260 are not an

01:03:48.760 expert, and

01:03:49.800 you kind

01:03:50.260 of uncritically

01:03:51.140 accept that

01:03:51.780 it's probably

01:03:52.360 kind of

01:03:52.880 true.

01:03:53.980 It's only

01:03:54.520 when you

01:03:54.800 read things

01:03:55.280 you know

01:03:55.720 the truth

01:03:56.240 that you

01:03:56.760 can see

01:03:57.100 how bad

01:03:57.720 the news

01:03:58.700 is.

01:03:59.540 You have

01:04:00.180 to assume

01:04:00.640 this applies

01:04:01.240 to history

01:04:01.920 as well.

01:04:02.880 We know

01:04:03.160 the winners

01:04:03.580 write history,

01:04:04.320 right?

01:04:04.740 But the

01:04:05.300 things you

01:04:05.700 think are

01:04:06.080 just facts

01:04:06.860 might not

01:04:08.400 be, because

01:04:09.480 our history

01:04:10.100 is pretty

01:04:10.940 subjective, it

01:04:11.940 turns out.

01:04:13.000 Now, let

01:04:13.440 me give you

01:04:13.840 an example,

01:04:14.640 and stop

01:04:15.040 me if I

01:04:15.500 already told

01:04:16.420 you this.

01:04:16.700 So, the

01:04:17.640 Wall Street

01:04:17.960 Journal had

01:04:19.160 an article

01:04:19.620 about Jack

01:04:21.360 Dorsey, and

01:04:22.280 they mentioned

01:04:23.280 me in the

01:04:23.940 article.

01:04:25.000 Now, there

01:04:25.500 were two

01:04:25.980 facts in

01:04:27.440 this little

01:04:28.000 mention of

01:04:28.660 me in

01:04:29.440 the Wall

01:04:29.780 Street

01:04:30.000 Journal.

01:04:30.860 Now, the

01:04:31.200 Wall Street

01:04:31.580 Journal is

01:04:32.000 a pretty

01:04:32.280 reliable

01:04:32.860 publication,

01:04:33.940 wouldn't

01:04:34.120 you say?

01:04:34.920 If you

01:04:35.260 were to

01:04:36.280 rank

01:04:36.680 credibility

01:04:37.840 of

01:04:38.540 publications,

01:04:39.460 the Wall

01:04:39.720 Street

01:04:39.880 Journal would

01:04:40.360 be very

01:04:40.960 near the

01:04:41.400 top, the

01:04:43.000 very best

01:04:43.620 in

01:04:44.020 credibility.

01:04:45.100 two things

01:04:47.040 that were

01:04:47.420 said about

01:04:47.860 me in

01:04:48.220 there.

01:04:48.580 One, I

01:04:49.160 was labeled

01:04:49.680 a conservative.

01:04:51.700 I'm left

01:04:52.260 of Bernie.

01:04:53.860 So, my

01:04:54.820 label was

01:04:56.520 dead wrong,

01:04:57.520 complete

01:04:58.600 opposite.

01:04:59.340 I support

01:04:59.940 President

01:05:00.440 Trump, but

01:05:01.660 it has more

01:05:02.060 to do with

01:05:02.580 Trump's

01:05:03.120 special skills

01:05:04.180 than some

01:05:05.400 alignment in

01:05:06.360 philosophy.

01:05:07.880 All right?

01:05:08.480 The second

01:05:09.120 thing they

01:05:09.500 said was

01:05:10.160 they paired

01:05:10.680 me with

01:05:11.880 DeRay

01:05:12.840 McKesson,

01:05:13.640 I think,

01:05:13.900 as people

01:05:16.220 who Jack

01:05:17.460 interacts

01:05:18.440 with.

01:05:19.880 Now, I've

01:05:21.340 interacted with

01:05:22.200 Jack several

01:05:23.460 times, most

01:05:24.280 of them about

01:05:25.020 Twitter itself

01:05:26.820 and Twitter

01:05:27.760 censorship.

01:05:29.840 And once on

01:05:31.500 a book he

01:05:32.220 recommended, but

01:05:33.100 fairly ordinary,

01:05:36.700 trivial stuff.

01:05:37.960 I've only been

01:05:38.820 in the room

01:05:39.320 with him once

01:05:40.160 in my life

01:05:40.940 for about 20

01:05:41.700 minutes on

01:05:42.340 charity-related

01:05:43.860 thing.

01:05:45.100 And that's

01:05:48.540 it.

01:05:49.880 And the

01:05:50.600 Wall Street

01:05:50.980 Journal puts

01:05:52.240 me in the

01:05:52.700 article with

01:05:53.480 DeRay, who

01:05:54.520 is one of

01:05:54.980 the activists

01:05:55.920 for Black

01:05:56.520 Lives Matter,

01:05:57.520 as if we

01:05:58.140 are somehow

01:05:58.740 key people

01:06:00.380 in Jack's

01:06:01.160 lives.

01:06:01.780 I would not

01:06:02.700 be in the

01:06:03.280 top 5,000

01:06:04.800 of key people

01:06:06.540 that are

01:06:07.520 important to

01:06:08.160 Jack Dorsey.

01:06:08.780 I'm just

01:06:09.520 somebody who

01:06:09.940 has talked

01:06:10.280 to him a

01:06:10.600 few times.

01:06:11.500 I like

01:06:11.840 him.

01:06:13.700 But that's

01:06:14.100 it.

01:06:14.840 Now, if you

01:06:15.420 read that

01:06:15.860 article, you

01:06:16.500 would think

01:06:16.880 that we're

01:06:17.200 hanging out

01:06:17.680 all the

01:06:18.000 time, and

01:06:18.860 that somehow

01:06:19.900 my association

01:06:21.460 with him

01:06:22.140 has some

01:06:23.480 importance as

01:06:25.300 much as

01:06:25.760 DeRay's, who

01:06:26.820 had a long

01:06:27.300 time relationship

01:06:28.620 with him.

01:06:29.500 I understand.

01:06:30.860 So, the

01:06:32.120 only two

01:06:32.720 things about

01:06:33.360 me were

01:06:34.720 very misleading.

01:06:37.060 Did you

01:06:37.600 know that?

01:06:38.160 If you

01:06:38.540 had read

01:06:38.860 that article,

01:06:39.460 would you

01:06:39.700 know that

01:06:40.040 those two

01:06:40.480 things were

01:06:40.960 misleading?

01:06:42.260 Probably not.

01:06:43.540 Probably not.

01:06:44.740 But if it

01:06:45.440 were about

01:06:45.780 you, you'd

01:06:46.260 know it.

01:06:47.340 So, don't

01:06:49.380 trust your

01:06:49.840 history.

01:06:50.420 Don't trust

01:06:51.040 your media.

01:06:52.900 The only

01:06:53.600 people you

01:06:54.100 can trust

01:06:54.660 are the

01:06:56.020 people here

01:06:56.560 on this

01:06:56.960 live stream.

01:06:59.900 That's it.

01:07:00.900 You're the

01:07:01.280 only people we

01:07:02.020 can trust.

01:07:03.180 By the way,

01:07:03.640 there's another

01:07:04.080 thing that

01:07:04.720 Trump does

01:07:06.000 that's really

01:07:06.780 good,

01:07:07.100 persuasion.

01:07:08.360 And I

01:07:08.600 laugh every

01:07:09.120 time I

01:07:09.460 hear it

01:07:09.760 because it's

01:07:10.200 so ham-handed

01:07:12.900 and yet it

01:07:14.160 completely works.

01:07:15.800 He tells his

01:07:17.500 supporters that

01:07:18.360 they're smarter

01:07:18.980 than the

01:07:19.460 experts.

01:07:20.920 Now, I

01:07:22.440 know that

01:07:23.000 this works

01:07:23.700 because the

01:07:24.880 secret to

01:07:25.600 the Dilbert

01:07:26.080 cartoon strip

01:07:27.000 was when I

01:07:28.220 started telling

01:07:28.840 my readers

01:07:29.440 that they

01:07:29.940 were smarter

01:07:30.500 than their

01:07:31.020 boss.

01:07:32.680 Everybody

01:07:33.280 loves to

01:07:34.020 hear that

01:07:34.600 they're smarter

01:07:35.180 than the

01:07:35.540 experts and

01:07:36.620 they're smarter

01:07:37.120 than their

01:07:37.600 boss.

01:07:38.540 Are they?

01:07:39.700 Well, I

01:07:40.480 suppose sometimes.

01:07:41.960 Sometimes you're

01:07:42.700 smarter than

01:07:43.140 your boss.

01:07:44.220 Sometimes you

01:07:44.760 are smarter

01:07:45.200 than the

01:07:45.520 experts.

01:07:46.760 But as a

01:07:48.500 persuasion

01:07:49.200 thing, it's

01:07:50.340 really super

01:07:52.000 good.

01:07:53.260 Because people

01:07:54.080 are primed to

01:07:55.100 want to believe

01:07:56.000 that they're

01:07:56.480 smarter than

01:07:57.020 experts.

01:07:58.040 So Trump

01:07:58.700 will say this

01:07:59.240 all the time.

01:07:59.820 He'll say,

01:08:00.180 well, the

01:08:00.800 experts said

01:08:01.580 this, and

01:08:02.200 then he'll

01:08:02.520 look at his

01:08:02.980 audience, the

01:08:03.840 rally audience,

01:08:04.520 but you're

01:08:05.440 smarter than

01:08:06.080 them.

01:08:07.280 They say

01:08:08.140 they're the

01:08:08.640 elites, but

01:08:09.740 you're the

01:08:10.120 elites.

01:08:10.880 It's really

01:08:11.440 good stuff for

01:08:12.760 bonding with

01:08:13.560 his audience.

01:08:15.020 It's A-plus

01:08:15.920 persuasion.

01:08:17.340 All right.

01:08:20.420 Scott sides

01:08:21.280 with the

01:08:21.840 maskers.

01:08:22.640 I want to

01:08:23.220 see this

01:08:23.720 accusation

01:08:25.120 before I

01:08:25.640 block you.

01:08:26.880 It says,

01:08:27.200 Scott sides

01:08:28.080 with the

01:08:28.380 maskers to

01:08:29.300 keep his

01:08:30.220 leftist

01:08:30.820 credibility.

01:08:32.020 So I'll

01:08:34.540 be blocking

01:08:35.060 you.

01:08:38.320 Somehow that

01:08:39.220 disappeared.

01:08:41.160 If you

01:08:42.100 apply mind

01:08:43.060 reading to

01:08:43.640 me that is

01:08:44.560 incorrect, such

01:08:46.240 as that, do

01:08:47.620 you really

01:08:48.020 think that I

01:08:51.620 would back

01:08:52.240 masks just

01:08:53.920 to preserve

01:08:54.620 my leftist

01:08:55.480 credibility?

01:08:57.380 I feel like

01:08:58.480 you must be

01:08:59.080 new here.

01:09:00.540 Do you

01:09:00.880 think I care

01:09:01.560 about my

01:09:02.060 leftist

01:09:02.560 credibility?

01:09:05.400 Is that

01:09:06.120 high on my

01:09:06.820 list of

01:09:07.300 things to

01:09:07.980 preserve?

01:09:09.880 So saying

01:09:10.820 good things

01:09:11.340 about Trump

01:09:12.160 literally every

01:09:13.680 fucking day, 0.97

01:09:15.240 and somebody

01:09:15.880 is on here

01:09:16.360 saying, I

01:09:16.800 think he

01:09:17.160 wants to

01:09:17.580 preserve his

01:09:18.320 leftist

01:09:18.840 credibility.

01:09:20.920 No.

01:09:22.300 That has

01:09:22.900 no bearing

01:09:23.400 on any of

01:09:23.980 my decisions.

01:09:25.420 What I

01:09:25.840 would like

01:09:26.200 to destroy

01:09:27.040 is my

01:09:28.540 association

01:09:29.480 with either

01:09:30.020 the left

01:09:30.540 or the

01:09:30.920 right.

01:09:31.560 In my

01:09:32.220 perfect world,

01:09:33.600 neither the

01:09:34.180 left nor

01:09:34.620 the right

01:09:35.000 would claim

01:09:35.600 me, but

01:09:36.480 would understand

01:09:37.240 that I can

01:09:38.520 be fluid

01:09:39.340 based on

01:09:40.140 where the

01:09:40.760 facts and

01:09:41.940 my sense

01:09:42.540 of reason

01:09:43.060 take me.

01:09:44.780 So anybody

01:09:45.700 who thinks

01:09:46.160 that I'm

01:09:46.640 pro-mask for

01:09:47.440 a political

01:09:48.600 reason doesn't

01:09:50.020 understand risk

01:09:51.600 management.

01:09:52.840 I'm pro-mask 0.98

01:09:54.060 as a risk

01:09:55.140 management

01:09:55.740 decision,

01:09:56.700 meaning that

01:09:57.340 there's enough

01:09:58.620 evidence that

01:09:59.340 they probably

01:10:00.100 work that

01:10:01.460 it's worth

01:10:01.940 the risk.

01:10:03.300 There's

01:10:03.660 certainly a

01:10:04.080 downside.

01:10:05.140 I recognize

01:10:05.700 the downside

01:10:06.320 completely,

01:10:07.900 but on

01:10:08.580 balance, we

01:10:10.140 unfortunately

01:10:10.620 have to

01:10:11.040 sort of

01:10:11.380 guess.

01:10:12.880 And none

01:10:13.480 of us are

01:10:13.920 smart enough

01:10:14.520 to know if

01:10:15.200 the masks are

01:10:15.860 a good idea

01:10:16.560 or not.

01:10:17.200 We're not.

01:10:18.000 If you think

01:10:18.740 you know

01:10:19.460 that masks

01:10:21.120 are bad,

01:10:21.780 or you think

01:10:22.240 you know

01:10:22.920 that masks

01:10:24.220 are definitely

01:10:25.000 good,

01:10:25.760 you're not

01:10:26.780 smart.

01:10:28.040 Sorry.

01:10:29.120 If you say

01:10:30.120 I have a

01:10:30.960 strong opinion,

01:10:32.960 well, you're

01:10:33.900 probably reasonable.

01:10:35.200 Even if your

01:10:35.860 strong opinion

01:10:36.520 is one way

01:10:37.240 or the other,

01:10:38.220 it would be

01:10:38.900 reasonable

01:10:39.420 to look at

01:10:40.960 this and have

01:10:41.520 a strong

01:10:41.960 opinion.

01:10:43.000 It would be

01:10:44.040 stupid to

01:10:45.900 say you know

01:10:46.520 they work

01:10:47.100 or you know

01:10:48.620 they don't.

01:10:49.540 That would

01:10:49.920 just be stupid. 0.88

01:10:52.400 So let me

01:10:53.340 be as clear

01:10:54.180 as I can

01:10:54.640 on that.

01:10:55.820 But risk

01:10:56.380 management,

01:10:57.060 you could

01:10:57.460 certainly go

01:10:57.920 either way

01:10:58.280 on that.

01:10:59.980 All right.

01:11:01.840 I'm seeing

01:11:02.620 Warren for

01:11:03.900 Secretary of

01:11:05.300 Treasury.

01:11:06.400 There's some

01:11:07.140 thinking that

01:11:07.760 that would

01:11:08.060 scare Wall

01:11:08.680 Street too

01:11:09.340 much.

01:11:10.200 So maybe

01:11:11.060 we won't

01:11:11.520 see that.

01:11:12.380 And I

01:11:12.660 heard somebody

01:11:13.120 smart say

01:11:13.720 that if

01:11:14.080 Elizabeth

01:11:14.580 Warren took

01:11:15.460 a cabinet

01:11:15.960 job,

01:11:17.200 her Senate

01:11:17.860 position would

01:11:19.420 be filled

01:11:20.600 by a

01:11:21.440 Republican

01:11:21.840 governor.

01:11:23.440 And so

01:11:23.860 she doesn't

01:11:24.360 want to

01:11:24.600 leave the

01:11:24.880 Senate

01:11:25.120 because that

01:11:26.320 would become

01:11:26.760 a Republican

01:11:27.740 Senate seat.

01:11:29.740 Slaughter meter

01:11:30.260 100%.

01:11:31.420 And I will

01:11:32.620 talk to you

01:11:33.260 tomorrow.

01:11:34.500 Thank you.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - October 31, 2020

Episode 1171 Scott Adams： Rappers Like Trump, Beware the Dad Jokers Answering Polls, The FBI and Hunter, More

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