Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 01, 2020


Episode 1172 Scott Adams： Fake Polls, Election Day Unrest, Biden Chased Out of Texas, and More


Episode Stats

Length

51 minutes

Words per Minute

144.88483

Word Count

7,489

Sentence Count

494


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in, gather around, it's time for Coffee with Scott Adams, the
00:00:15.240 best time ever.
00:00:18.100 Yeah, it's hard to imagine really a better way to spend the morning.
00:00:22.300 This is kind of as good as it gets.
00:00:25.580 Am I an hour early?
00:00:30.000 I am an hour early, delay savings time.
00:00:37.140 Well, interesting, because some of my clocks changed and some didn't, but guess what?
00:00:44.280 We're going to do this now, and it'll be here for the rest of you.
00:00:48.520 Those of you who are a little bit slow, you're going to get here.
00:00:52.900 But let me tell you, before I continue, I did know the time changed.
00:01:00.000 I did check the clocks, I did double check, and I triple checked to make sure I had the
00:01:08.140 right time.
00:01:09.460 And for reasons that are unclear to me, some of my digital clocks have not changed, but
00:01:15.680 some of them did.
00:01:16.300 Let me make sure that I'm not hallucinating.
00:01:19.480 Oh, damn it, they all changed.
00:01:25.620 Well, we're going to do this early.
00:01:28.700 Are you ready?
00:01:29.820 Yeah?
00:01:30.380 All you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or
00:01:34.980 a flask, a vessel of any kind.
00:01:38.440 Fill it with your favorite liquid.
00:01:40.760 I like coffee.
00:01:41.440 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine to the day, the thing that
00:01:45.940 makes everything better.
00:01:48.140 It's called the simultaneous sip.
00:01:50.660 And it happens now.
00:01:52.900 Go.
00:01:56.820 Oh, yeah.
00:01:58.200 It feels early, doesn't it?
00:02:01.320 Yeah.
00:02:01.680 It tastes a little bit early.
00:02:02.980 You can get that from the coffee.
00:02:07.920 All right.
00:02:08.540 Well, those of you lazy heads who are still in bed, I've been up since 3 a.m., as I often
00:02:13.860 am, because sleep is for the dead.
00:02:19.840 Every time I sleep, I say to myself, I don't like this sleep.
00:02:24.120 I don't like this at all.
00:02:25.680 So I like to pop out of bed as soon as I can.
00:02:28.600 Get on with the day.
00:02:30.120 And you should be like that, too.
00:02:32.980 And somebody says, you're robbing us of an hour.
00:02:35.960 It's not time.
00:02:39.820 I realize that I've done something terrible to many of you.
00:02:43.580 I've developed this habit of being here at a certain time because of the time change.
00:02:50.880 And by the way, I should tell you about this time change thing, because what you're seeing
00:02:56.140 is bigger than what it looks like.
00:02:59.460 What you think you just saw is that I just had a little brain fart and forgot it was the
00:03:07.600 time changed.
00:03:08.780 That's what you think, right?
00:03:11.100 But it's actually way bigger than that.
00:03:13.600 I recently had to just stop scheduling interviews because I couldn't show up on time.
00:03:22.180 And it wasn't that I would forget that I had something scheduled.
00:03:26.120 I have a very peculiar problem that I've literally never heard of anybody else have.
00:03:31.780 And it goes like this.
00:03:32.840 I have a calendar and time issue that's like a mental problem.
00:03:41.380 And I've always had it.
00:03:42.660 It's not related to smoking marijuana or anything like that.
00:03:45.920 It's a lifelong thing.
00:03:47.180 And it goes like this.
00:03:49.900 I can look at my calendar and somebody can say, we're going to meet at 8 p.m.
00:03:55.560 Put that on your calendar.
00:03:57.040 And I'll say, well, that's easy enough.
00:03:59.300 8 p.m.
00:04:00.740 On the 9th.
00:04:01.940 And I'll look at my calendar.
00:04:03.240 I'll go to the 9th.
00:04:04.780 I'll go to 8 p.m.
00:04:05.700 Make sure I got a p.m., not a.m.
00:04:08.160 Write it in there.
00:04:09.600 And then it's pretty easy, right?
00:04:11.040 Everybody in the world can do that.
00:04:12.880 You just write it down on your calendar exactly like it was given to you.
00:04:18.180 Except I can't.
00:04:20.520 About 4 out of 5 times I write it in the wrong place or the wrong time.
00:04:25.880 And so the way I had been correcting for that is whenever I was trying to schedule something,
00:04:32.000 I would send it to Christina, and she would schedule it on my calendar
00:04:35.720 because she's not defective in this way.
00:04:39.180 So this time change thing is part of that problem,
00:04:43.440 which is I can look at a calendar and see something that isn't there consistently.
00:04:49.980 It's not one of those things that happens once in a while.
00:04:53.000 It consistently, I can look at September 9th.
00:04:56.920 I can double-check it and triple-check it and go, okay, it's September.
00:05:00.960 It says the 9th.
00:05:02.320 That's the day I want.
00:05:04.200 And I'll turn away, and then I can turn back.
00:05:06.340 It'll be like October 6th or something, just a completely different day and time.
00:05:12.120 And this has happened all my life.
00:05:13.540 It's not some new thing.
00:05:15.840 And it seems limited to calendars and time.
00:05:20.620 I don't know what that's about.
00:05:22.020 Have you ever heard of that?
00:05:23.360 Has anybody ever heard of that?
00:05:25.220 Somebody says the same here.
00:05:27.440 If somebody else is having this problem, I'd love to hear about it.
00:05:31.560 Yeah, I am dyslexic, but I don't think that's exactly what's going on
00:05:36.420 because I actually hallucinate seeing different things.
00:05:40.140 So anyway, that's not why you signed up to watch this.
00:05:43.940 So there's a study out of Stanford University.
00:05:48.540 A bunch of economists.
00:05:50.160 I'm just guessing they might skew Democrat.
00:05:52.740 But a bunch of economists estimated that there have been at least 30,000 coronavirus infections
00:05:59.620 and 700 deaths as a result of Trump's 18 campaign rallies between June and September.
00:06:08.620 Do you believe that?
00:06:09.940 Do you believe that Trump killed 700 people by campaigning for president?
00:06:16.880 It's not impossible, is it?
00:06:19.920 I mean, it's not completely impossible.
00:06:21.540 But there's a little note on this article that you don't see in the headline
00:06:30.360 and you don't see it in the first description, so you might have missed it.
00:06:36.680 Here's the note you might have missed.
00:06:39.080 It hasn't been peer-reviewed.
00:06:42.880 Do you know how many peer-reviewed studies turn out later to be false?
00:06:50.380 About half.
00:06:51.540 About half.
00:06:53.120 So this has not reached the level of credibility of a peer review,
00:06:59.360 which is only right about half the time.
00:07:02.360 So it's below the credibility of something that's only right half the time.
00:07:06.680 Now, it does seem to be reasonable that if you have large gatherings, you would have more infections.
00:07:14.500 But 700 deaths?
00:07:17.500 It sounds a little political and maybe less scientific than it needs to be.
00:07:23.140 But I don't doubt that people died because of the activity.
00:07:28.300 But that's what everybody signed up for.
00:07:32.960 There's nobody who went to an outdoor rally with lots of people during a pandemic who said to themselves,
00:07:40.300 this is perfectly safe.
00:07:42.760 Nobody said that.
00:07:44.620 It's not like anybody was fooled by it.
00:07:46.920 Oh, it turns out, surprise, surprise, meeting in large groups during a pandemic spreads the disease.
00:07:53.640 They all knew that.
00:07:54.640 Everybody knew that.
00:07:55.560 And they made that choice.
00:07:57.300 They chose freedom in this particular context over risk.
00:08:03.980 Now, unfortunately, the nature of this virus is that when you take on risk, you're taking on risk for other people.
00:08:13.180 Which doesn't seem fair, right?
00:08:15.100 It's fair for you to take on a risk that's just for you.
00:08:19.160 But what happens when you take on risks for other people?
00:08:23.840 Is that what you signed up for?
00:08:25.860 Do you want a stranger deciding whether you live or die, or at least the odds of you living or dying?
00:08:31.480 Well, you don't want that, but it's not so very different than the rest of the world.
00:08:37.260 Meaning, if you get in your automobile and go somewhere, you're taking a risk for yourself, of course,
00:08:45.420 but you're taking a risk on behalf of all the other people driving, all the pedestrians, everybody else.
00:08:50.680 You are hoping that your activity does not kill anybody.
00:08:55.600 And there's lots of examples like that.
00:08:57.380 So, it's not that unusual that you take risks that are largely about yourself,
00:09:04.040 but they have some big impact on the rest of the world, too.
00:09:07.140 And I think you have to look at that not as a mistake, but as a choice.
00:09:13.880 Right?
00:09:14.760 The people who went to the Trump rallies,
00:09:17.880 there's no claim that there was something special about these rallies,
00:09:25.840 other than they were rallies, that there were a lot of people in one place.
00:09:30.480 So, I think these are people who said,
00:09:33.000 this is the risk and I choose to take it.
00:09:37.720 Is that the same as a mistake?
00:09:40.240 I don't think it is.
00:09:41.860 It's the opposite of a mistake.
00:09:43.900 It's what people chose.
00:09:45.200 It's a tragedy when anybody dies.
00:09:48.080 We're not going to, you know, gloss over that.
00:09:50.880 Death is death.
00:09:52.200 But these were choices, not mistakes.
00:09:55.320 And I think that's important.
00:09:57.560 All right.
00:09:59.500 Here's a funniest thing from this morning.
00:10:03.440 So, of course, I've tweeted that I think the polls are fake
00:10:07.120 and that the Iowa poll you saw went from Biden being up to Trump being up.
00:10:14.200 Oh, surprise, right before the election.
00:10:17.440 Oh, who saw this coming?
00:10:20.080 That right before the election, the polls would magically converge.
00:10:24.880 I did.
00:10:26.180 I've been saying it for a year,
00:10:27.900 that right before election day, the polls will magically converge.
00:10:32.120 And what will the pollsters be able to say?
00:10:35.860 Well, I guess Trump was campaigning pretty hard in those final days.
00:10:42.000 Really?
00:10:43.500 Really?
00:10:44.560 You think that's why the polls converge in the final days?
00:10:47.640 Because Trump is campaigning extra hard?
00:10:50.940 Now, I do think that campaigning makes a difference,
00:10:53.340 but it's not that.
00:10:54.840 It really isn't.
00:10:55.700 Because if he had campaigned just as hard in August,
00:11:01.240 do you think the polls would have closed?
00:11:03.780 No.
00:11:05.260 No, they would not have.
00:11:07.040 Now, what we assume about the polls,
00:11:10.380 there are a lot of people making assumptions.
00:11:13.300 Some of the smart people who were wrong in 2016,
00:11:16.900 and yet we still call them the smart people, I don't know why,
00:11:20.400 have said that, sure, sure, sure, they got it wrong in 2016,
00:11:23.900 but, you know, Scott, Scott, Scott,
00:11:28.120 they've learned from their mistakes.
00:11:30.860 They've made adjustments.
00:11:32.040 They know what they got wrong,
00:11:33.620 and it's been four years,
00:11:35.320 so they had plenty of time to adjust.
00:11:37.620 They're not going to make the same mistake again, Scott.
00:11:41.700 Well, what's wrong with that analysis?
00:11:44.600 What's wrong with the analysis
00:11:46.300 that says the pollsters learned from their mistakes,
00:11:50.760 and now they've corrected?
00:11:52.240 What's wrong with that?
00:11:53.900 It assumes they want it to correct, right?
00:11:57.680 And that's the assumption that we don't make,
00:12:00.480 because if they were wrong in 2016,
00:12:03.260 I don't think it's because they sampled wrong, necessarily.
00:12:08.520 I feel as though, because, you know, in 2016,
00:12:11.400 they were also, it was all Hillary's going to win
00:12:14.040 until the last days,
00:12:15.860 and then magically, magically, the polls converged.
00:12:19.180 It seems far more likely,
00:12:21.960 in my skeptical opinion,
00:12:25.320 it seems far more likely
00:12:26.980 that what happened was
00:12:29.240 that the pollsters wanted to show that,
00:12:33.600 when Hillary was running,
00:12:35.460 wanted to show that Clinton was way ahead,
00:12:37.280 because that helps fundraising, right?
00:12:40.700 If you have lots of fundraising,
00:12:43.380 or if you're trying to raise funds,
00:12:45.540 you want the people you're asking money of
00:12:48.340 to think it's money well spent.
00:12:51.340 Hey, this candidate can win.
00:12:52.820 So, I think the fake polls are all about
00:12:56.300 generating funds for the candidate.
00:13:01.840 And, of course, if you generate lots of funds
00:13:04.100 for the candidate,
00:13:05.060 where do those funds go?
00:13:07.360 Do they spend them?
00:13:09.040 Well, a lot of it is for travel-related stuff.
00:13:12.260 It takes a lot to move around.
00:13:14.320 But a lot of it is advertising.
00:13:15.760 So, it goes to the very media entities
00:13:18.780 that are doing the fake polls.
00:13:22.120 Do you see that?
00:13:24.160 The entities that survive on advertising dollars
00:13:28.980 would like more advertising dollars to be spent.
00:13:33.320 And what is the best way
00:13:34.420 to get more advertising dollars spent?
00:13:37.360 Well, do a fake poll.
00:13:39.460 Put your media's name on it.
00:13:43.180 So, it says New York Times plus something
00:13:46.000 or NBC plus something,
00:13:48.380 CNN plus something.
00:13:49.800 You know, they often pair up.
00:13:51.500 But you pair up
00:13:52.540 and put your credibility on it.
00:13:55.560 And then it says,
00:13:57.100 hey, Biden's looking good.
00:13:59.400 And then suddenly,
00:14:00.460 what happened to Biden's fundraising
00:14:02.400 when he looked like he was going to win?
00:14:05.580 Did you see?
00:14:06.440 He set records for fundraising
00:14:09.500 when his poll numbers looked good.
00:14:11.480 Where did that money go?
00:14:13.740 It went to the people who did the polls
00:14:15.940 in many cases.
00:14:18.220 And not all cases.
00:14:19.320 But in many cases,
00:14:20.640 the media companies,
00:14:21.700 the news business,
00:14:23.320 paired with a polling company.
00:14:25.140 So, it's kind of like
00:14:27.220 they made money for themselves
00:14:29.100 by giving you a poll result
00:14:31.420 that guaranteed the most fundraising,
00:14:34.360 which guarantees the most advertising spend
00:14:37.100 on those same outlets.
00:14:39.420 Do you see it now?
00:14:40.560 So, everybody who said,
00:14:43.440 I think they made a mistake in 2016,
00:14:46.140 but surely they have corrected their mistake,
00:14:48.720 is missing the most important part of the equation.
00:14:51.840 They don't want to correct that mistake.
00:14:54.320 It's not a mistake.
00:14:56.380 It's not a mistake.
00:14:58.300 It's a strategy.
00:14:59.520 And it's a good one.
00:15:00.380 And it works really well.
00:15:01.760 But the last part of the strategy is,
00:15:03.780 in order to keep their credibility for next time,
00:15:06.680 so that they can just do the same trick again,
00:15:08.700 they have to look for something in the news
00:15:11.340 and say,
00:15:12.420 oh, that thing in the news,
00:15:15.040 that's why the polls went from way apart
00:15:18.160 to suddenly they're very close at the end.
00:15:21.320 It's because the thing in the news.
00:15:24.120 2016, what was the thing in the news?
00:15:27.280 Comey doing his announcement about Hillary's emails.
00:15:30.340 In my opinion, that changed zero votes.
00:15:36.020 And yet, history records,
00:15:38.400 because the media gets to write history, right,
00:15:40.840 records that that changed the election.
00:15:43.380 Do you believe that?
00:15:44.880 It's been four years.
00:15:46.780 In four years, how many people have you met
00:15:49.240 who said to themselves,
00:15:51.180 you know, I was going to vote for Hillary Clinton,
00:15:53.800 but then Comey did that announcement
00:15:56.440 about the emails and changed my vote.
00:16:00.760 Have you met even one person who said that?
00:16:04.180 In four years?
00:16:05.480 Any of you?
00:16:06.920 You know, it would be not a big deal
00:16:08.380 if any one of us had never met somebody
00:16:11.580 who changed their vote because of that.
00:16:13.800 But look in the comments.
00:16:15.580 See if you can find anybody
00:16:17.260 in the thousands and thousands of people
00:16:19.320 in the comments
00:16:20.460 who have spent four years
00:16:23.240 probably interacting at least a little bit
00:16:25.580 with people who voted both ways.
00:16:28.900 Tell me one person
00:16:30.260 who said on that day that Comey came out,
00:16:33.660 well, I'm changing my vote because of this.
00:16:36.560 And yet we have been told to accept that
00:16:38.620 as the official explanation.
00:16:40.840 It's ridiculous, of course.
00:16:42.800 Nobody changed their vote because of that.
00:16:45.000 Not a single person.
00:16:46.140 And this time they're going to have to look
00:16:49.760 for something in the news,
00:16:51.160 something that's happening this week,
00:16:53.300 to say, oh, that's why it narrowed.
00:16:56.680 What do you think they're going to say?
00:16:59.520 Well, Trump has handed it to them.
00:17:01.940 What they're going to say is that
00:17:03.180 Trump did a lot more campaigning.
00:17:06.120 And they might even say that the,
00:17:08.580 what the media will call an illegitimate story,
00:17:12.660 which is the Biden,
00:17:14.080 and the Hunter Biden laptop stuff,
00:17:16.720 and whatever connections they have
00:17:18.340 with China and Ukraine.
00:17:21.140 And the media is going to say
00:17:22.480 those are the things.
00:17:23.840 Well, yeah, Trump did campaign more,
00:17:26.340 but also there was that dirty trick he did
00:17:29.020 by trying to tie Hunter to his father
00:17:32.040 as if they were connected.
00:17:34.320 They're connected.
00:17:36.320 And that'll be the official story.
00:17:38.960 And the public will,
00:17:40.240 at least half of the public,
00:17:41.620 will believe that's what happened.
00:17:44.120 They'll think the polls were correct.
00:17:46.860 Something happened that was a dirty trick.
00:17:49.540 Darn that Trump with his dirty tricks
00:17:51.800 and Hunter's laptop.
00:17:53.380 It changed the vote at the last minute,
00:17:55.640 plus his extra effort did make a difference.
00:17:59.220 And I guess it's because he didn't care
00:18:01.400 that people got killed.
00:18:03.560 Poor Joe Biden.
00:18:04.520 Again, he could never match what Trump was doing
00:18:07.540 because unlike Trump,
00:18:10.060 the uncaring monster that he is,
00:18:13.240 Joe Biden cares.
00:18:14.880 And he cares so much
00:18:15.980 that he's not going to campaign very hard
00:18:17.700 because if he did,
00:18:18.680 people might get infected.
00:18:20.500 So he cares.
00:18:22.220 He doesn't want to infect you.
00:18:23.680 So what could he do?
00:18:24.700 He couldn't match what Trump was doing
00:18:27.100 because he's not a monster.
00:18:28.840 He's not a monster.
00:18:30.460 What choice did he have?
00:18:32.140 Because Democrats love people.
00:18:34.300 They don't want to kill people.
00:18:36.160 They love you.
00:18:37.520 Not like these monsters
00:18:38.960 wearing their red hats
00:18:40.820 and driving their pickup trucks
00:18:42.300 all over Texas.
00:18:43.600 Not like them at all.
00:18:45.900 So that's the story you're going to get.
00:18:48.080 But here's the punchline of it all.
00:18:51.140 And if this doesn't make you laugh,
00:18:53.520 you're dead inside.
00:18:55.120 All right?
00:18:55.740 If you don't think this next part is funny,
00:18:58.320 you're in the wrong place.
00:19:02.700 You're watching the wrong Periscope.
00:19:05.480 So many of you know Jimmy Wales.
00:19:08.420 Jimmy Wales is one of the founders
00:19:10.440 or the founder,
00:19:11.820 I don't know how many there were,
00:19:13.380 of Wikipedia.
00:19:16.020 Now, I've communicated with Jimmy a few times
00:19:19.000 on various Wikipedia-related things
00:19:21.640 such as correcting the fine people hoax.
00:19:24.620 By the way, Wikipedia,
00:19:27.200 you know, there was a big battle
00:19:29.640 with the Trump supporters
00:19:31.980 and the Democrats
00:19:33.800 to get the Wikipedia page
00:19:35.840 on the fine people hoax
00:19:37.000 to correctly say that it's a hoax.
00:19:40.000 And for a while,
00:19:41.100 it looked like we were winning
00:19:43.120 to get the actual accurate story on there.
00:19:46.540 But I checked out it a little while ago,
00:19:48.380 and I think what they did was
00:19:49.660 they wrote it so confusingly
00:19:52.760 that you can't kind of tell what's going on.
00:19:55.120 So you're not really sure.
00:19:57.660 Did they call it out as a hoax?
00:19:59.580 Was it a hoax or not a hoax?
00:20:01.580 So the final refuge
00:20:04.180 of the people who are essentially
00:20:07.660 called out for spreading
00:20:09.780 the fine people hoax,
00:20:11.320 their last play,
00:20:12.680 and you saw this with,
00:20:14.160 was it PolitiFact,
00:20:15.720 the fact-checking group,
00:20:17.340 instead of just fact-checking it
00:20:18.940 as a hoax,
00:20:20.620 which it is and it's obvious
00:20:22.060 and you just have to read the transcript,
00:20:23.880 it's obviously a hoax,
00:20:25.380 instead of fact-checking it
00:20:26.720 like they fact-check everything else,
00:20:29.300 they just decided to
00:20:30.780 show you something long and confusing
00:20:32.780 so that they didn't have to fact-check it.
00:20:36.000 I mean, it's outrageously bold
00:20:38.680 what they do.
00:20:39.780 So Wikipedia is now
00:20:40.960 just a confusing page on that.
00:20:42.700 So you can't really tell
00:20:44.320 was it a hoax or not a hoax.
00:20:45.700 Anyway, but Jimmy himself,
00:20:51.000 I've communicated a few times
00:20:52.720 on Twitter,
00:20:55.100 and he's a nice guy
00:20:57.980 and I like him,
00:21:00.100 but he's very anti-Trump.
00:21:04.060 So I'm very pro-Jimmy Wales
00:21:06.520 and pro-Wikipedia,
00:21:08.000 even if you're not.
00:21:09.020 I know some of you are going to be like,
00:21:10.340 Wikipedia,
00:21:11.780 all that news is left-leaning fakeness,
00:21:14.940 but I think Wikipedia is actually
00:21:16.340 a national treasure.
00:21:20.660 You know, even with its flaws,
00:21:23.240 everything is flawed,
00:21:24.320 but even with its flaws,
00:21:25.460 I think Wikipedia is a national treasure.
00:21:28.120 And I like Jimmy Wales.
00:21:31.020 But this story is funny.
00:21:34.080 Okay.
00:21:35.020 So Jimmy sees one of my tweets
00:21:36.720 about the polls being fake
00:21:39.900 and Trump going to win,
00:21:41.800 and he said that,
00:21:48.960 oh, where's his exact tweet?
00:21:51.200 So he tweeted back at me,
00:21:52.500 I'll give you his exact tweet,
00:21:53.720 because he said,
00:21:55.840 or,
00:21:56.560 so he's saying,
00:21:57.740 instead of my view
00:21:58.800 that the polls are fake,
00:22:00.440 he goes,
00:22:01.200 or,
00:22:01.840 what if,
00:22:02.840 as seems infinitely
00:22:03.980 more likely and plausible,
00:22:06.700 all right,
00:22:06.860 now Jimmy is going to tell us
00:22:08.460 what is infinitely
00:22:10.200 more likely and plausible
00:22:11.960 than my hypothesis
00:22:13.940 that the polls are fake
00:22:15.560 because people are lying
00:22:16.720 to the pollsters.
00:22:18.280 He goes,
00:22:20.180 isn't it infinitely
00:22:21.360 more likely and plausible
00:22:22.560 the polls are not fake
00:22:24.060 and Trump is about to lose?
00:22:27.700 Given that you have
00:22:28.840 zero evidence of fakery,
00:22:30.620 he says to me.
00:22:32.380 Now,
00:22:33.540 do I have
00:22:34.760 zero evidence
00:22:36.140 of fakery?
00:22:38.260 So,
00:22:38.980 here's the funny part.
00:22:40.560 So I pinned it
00:22:41.760 to my Twitter feed
00:22:42.720 with a retweet
00:22:44.280 in which I asked
00:22:45.760 my followers
00:22:46.460 to write into
00:22:48.520 the comments
00:22:49.160 whether or not
00:22:50.000 they personally
00:22:50.800 have lied to pollsters.
00:22:53.160 How do you think
00:22:53.680 that went?
00:22:55.860 So,
00:22:56.720 for your
00:22:57.500 entertainment pleasure,
00:22:59.520 you know,
00:22:59.820 after this Periscope,
00:23:00.880 check out my pinned tweet
00:23:02.700 to Jimmy Wales
00:23:04.300 in which he says
00:23:05.900 there's no evidence
00:23:06.960 that people are lying
00:23:08.300 to pollsters
00:23:08.920 and then read the comments
00:23:10.600 of just person
00:23:11.840 after person
00:23:12.540 who has lied
00:23:13.160 to pollsters.
00:23:15.140 And,
00:23:15.940 now,
00:23:17.020 I will grant you,
00:23:18.600 I will grant you
00:23:19.520 that my,
00:23:20.460 you know,
00:23:21.100 comments within a tweet
00:23:22.400 are certainly not
00:23:23.580 a statistical
00:23:24.680 fact of any kind.
00:23:27.460 I will grant you
00:23:28.340 that the people
00:23:28.900 who follow me
00:23:29.500 on Twitter
00:23:29.840 are far more likely
00:23:30.940 to answer that way.
00:23:32.720 I'll grant you
00:23:33.560 all of that.
00:23:34.720 But,
00:23:35.500 the funny part
00:23:36.780 is that
00:23:37.400 in Jimmy's world
00:23:38.500 and his bubble,
00:23:40.280 and we're all in bubbles,
00:23:41.300 right?
00:23:41.520 He's not the only person
00:23:42.460 in a bubble.
00:23:43.360 But,
00:23:43.660 in his bubble,
00:23:45.120 there is no evidence
00:23:46.340 for this.
00:23:48.800 There's no evidence
00:23:49.920 that people
00:23:50.480 are lying to pollsters.
00:23:51.640 and I'm going to tell you,
00:23:54.860 nobody knows for sure
00:23:56.660 how this election goes.
00:23:58.580 Could I be wrong?
00:23:59.720 Sure.
00:24:00.700 Sure,
00:24:01.060 I can be wrong.
00:24:02.100 I think Trump
00:24:02.800 has it locked down now.
00:24:04.260 But I can be wrong.
00:24:05.900 We could all be wrong.
00:24:07.980 But I'll tell you
00:24:08.860 one thing I'm sure of.
00:24:11.020 There's plenty of evidence
00:24:12.280 that people have lied
00:24:13.860 to pollsters.
00:24:15.100 Don't know how many,
00:24:16.240 but there's plenty
00:24:17.100 of evidence.
00:24:18.700 And certainly,
00:24:19.540 anecdotally,
00:24:20.880 just if you're looking
00:24:21.640 at the crowd sizes
00:24:22.880 and everything else,
00:24:24.540 it would seem that way.
00:24:26.020 All right.
00:24:28.380 Are you ready for the,
00:24:30.000 well,
00:24:30.260 I'm going to give you
00:24:30.700 the good news first.
00:24:32.340 So,
00:24:32.720 you saw the Arizona poll numbers
00:24:34.520 where Trump
00:24:35.300 just flipped it.
00:24:37.160 Trump just went from
00:24:38.240 way down to way up
00:24:39.400 in Arizona.
00:24:40.800 Now,
00:24:41.140 do you think that's because
00:24:42.480 people change their minds?
00:24:45.780 No.
00:24:46.300 It's not because
00:24:47.820 anybody changed
00:24:48.700 their minds
00:24:49.640 in the last week
00:24:51.380 in Arizona.
00:24:52.680 That didn't happen.
00:24:54.580 People either started
00:24:55.620 answering the polls
00:24:56.640 accurately,
00:24:57.900 which would be
00:24:58.720 hilarious in itself.
00:25:00.420 Imagine if the only time
00:25:01.800 you answered the poll
00:25:02.720 accurately was
00:25:03.640 a couple of days
00:25:05.100 before the vote,
00:25:06.320 the election.
00:25:07.160 That would be
00:25:07.960 almost as good
00:25:09.160 as waiting,
00:25:11.020 you know,
00:25:11.780 as the Democrats
00:25:12.940 finding out
00:25:13.660 after election day
00:25:14.720 that people had lied.
00:25:16.300 But doing it
00:25:17.140 like the day
00:25:17.680 before the vote
00:25:18.500 to make them
00:25:19.160 extra scared,
00:25:20.640 it's like,
00:25:21.020 yeah,
00:25:21.460 actually,
00:25:22.120 I am going to vote
00:25:23.020 for Trump.
00:25:23.980 So,
00:25:24.400 I don't know
00:25:24.700 if anybody did that.
00:25:26.060 I'm just saying
00:25:26.660 it would be funny
00:25:27.420 if people had decided
00:25:28.440 to answer honestly
00:25:29.520 only once
00:25:30.800 and only the week
00:25:32.160 before the actual election.
00:25:35.260 I have no evidence
00:25:36.880 that that happened
00:25:37.720 to Jimmy's point.
00:25:40.120 But it would be funny
00:25:40.860 if it did.
00:25:41.780 So,
00:25:42.220 you've got that going well.
00:25:43.300 You've got these
00:25:43.820 gigantic crowds.
00:25:46.040 Did you see
00:25:46.460 the crowd
00:25:47.180 in Pennsylvania
00:25:48.060 for Trump?
00:25:49.940 It was crazy.
00:25:51.780 It was crazy.
00:25:53.020 But here's the most
00:25:53.820 fun part.
00:25:56.200 Biden took his
00:25:57.240 little douchebag
00:25:58.100 bus
00:25:58.540 to Texas.
00:26:01.400 How do you think
00:26:02.280 Biden's little douchebag
00:26:03.660 tour bus
00:26:04.880 did in Texas?
00:26:06.700 Well,
00:26:07.340 it turns out
00:26:07.880 that it was surrounded
00:26:08.660 by pickup trucks
00:26:09.660 with American flags
00:26:11.620 and ran them
00:26:13.360 out of Texas.
00:26:16.120 Now,
00:26:16.760 I'm laughing about it
00:26:17.980 while not encouraging
00:26:19.660 this behavior.
00:26:21.180 I do not encourage
00:26:22.300 anybody to run
00:26:23.220 anybody out of
00:26:24.080 any state,
00:26:25.080 much less a
00:26:26.120 presidential candidate
00:26:27.440 out of Texas.
00:26:29.520 But I can't say
00:26:30.680 it's not funny.
00:26:32.860 And by the way,
00:26:34.140 I believe
00:26:34.680 the Biden campaign
00:26:35.940 is exaggerating
00:26:37.280 how much pressure
00:26:39.040 these trucks
00:26:40.400 that were following
00:26:41.120 the bus
00:26:41.820 through Texas,
00:26:43.160 I think they're
00:26:43.800 exaggerating
00:26:44.340 how much danger
00:26:45.100 that was.
00:26:46.900 I think they're
00:26:47.720 trying to say
00:26:48.400 that they tried
00:26:48.940 to crowd them
00:26:49.740 off the road
00:26:50.380 or something like that.
00:26:51.220 I don't believe
00:26:51.640 any of that stuff.
00:26:52.960 But
00:26:53.200 they did
00:26:54.500 turn
00:26:55.780 the little
00:26:56.760 douchebag
00:26:57.680 Biden bus
00:26:58.420 into a
00:26:59.540 Trump rally
00:27:00.260 because
00:27:01.160 there are little
00:27:02.180 buses in the middle
00:27:03.100 but it's surrounded
00:27:04.120 by this sea
00:27:05.200 of Trump
00:27:06.300 supporting
00:27:06.940 trucks with flags.
00:27:09.160 And it was
00:27:09.420 such a perfect
00:27:10.320 sort of
00:27:11.500 Texas thing
00:27:12.860 that they
00:27:13.800 literally
00:27:14.780 instead of
00:27:16.420 getting on
00:27:16.760 horses
00:27:17.220 and running
00:27:20.220 after the
00:27:21.440 bad guys,
00:27:23.080 it was like
00:27:23.380 they just got
00:27:23.920 in their pickup
00:27:24.500 trucks
00:27:24.960 and sort of
00:27:25.920 surrounded the
00:27:26.580 candidate
00:27:26.920 and gently
00:27:28.160 guided him
00:27:28.820 out of their
00:27:29.220 state.
00:27:31.520 So that was
00:27:32.160 funny.
00:27:33.100 All right,
00:27:33.500 here's the
00:27:34.000 scariest thing
00:27:34.900 you're going
00:27:35.940 to hear today.
00:27:38.160 I'm trying
00:27:38.860 to decide
00:27:39.380 if I'm going
00:27:39.860 to make
00:27:40.080 this an
00:27:40.480 actual
00:27:41.180 prediction
00:27:42.580 because I
00:27:43.380 feel like
00:27:43.960 I could
00:27:44.420 predict it
00:27:45.100 but I don't
00:27:46.100 want it
00:27:46.520 to happen.
00:27:47.820 And I
00:27:48.080 don't like
00:27:48.620 to predict
00:27:49.100 things that
00:27:49.880 I don't
00:27:50.300 want to
00:27:50.740 happen
00:27:51.020 because I
00:27:51.400 feel like
00:27:51.900 you can
00:27:52.980 sort of
00:27:53.660 help cause
00:27:54.520 them to
00:27:54.720 happen
00:27:54.960 by predicting
00:27:55.660 it.
00:27:57.660 But I
00:27:58.280 think there's
00:27:58.640 a really
00:27:58.920 high chance
00:27:59.820 that the
00:28:00.360 following will
00:28:00.880 happen.
00:28:01.680 And it
00:28:01.900 goes like
00:28:02.340 this.
00:28:03.100 You have
00:28:03.720 noticed that
00:28:04.520 the corporate
00:28:05.020 media can
00:28:05.800 make entire
00:28:06.820 national stories
00:28:08.100 disappear.
00:28:09.780 Have you
00:28:10.180 not watched
00:28:11.000 this?
00:28:11.720 You watch
00:28:12.220 them make
00:28:12.760 the fine
00:28:13.420 people hoax
00:28:14.120 a national
00:28:14.740 story that
00:28:16.060 didn't even
00:28:16.500 happen.
00:28:17.420 And you've
00:28:17.920 watched them
00:28:18.320 make lots
00:28:18.960 of hoax
00:28:19.560 related stories
00:28:20.500 about the
00:28:21.600 president
00:28:21.960 recommending
00:28:22.660 drinking bleach.
00:28:24.000 You know,
00:28:24.240 just crazy
00:28:25.000 stories that
00:28:26.180 you know they
00:28:26.560 just made
00:28:27.040 up and half
00:28:27.800 the country
00:28:28.580 believed.
00:28:29.020 But more
00:28:30.220 scary than
00:28:30.940 that is
00:28:32.280 that they
00:28:32.660 can make
00:28:33.640 up just
00:28:34.580 a story
00:28:34.980 on a
00:28:35.300 nothing,
00:28:36.340 such as
00:28:36.960 the Russia
00:28:37.460 collusion
00:28:38.080 hoax.
00:28:38.980 It was
00:28:39.400 made up
00:28:39.780 on a
00:28:40.040 nothing,
00:28:40.800 and half
00:28:41.340 of the
00:28:41.580 country
00:28:41.860 still believes
00:28:42.620 that Trump
00:28:44.440 did collude
00:28:45.940 with Russia,
00:28:47.180 which has
00:28:47.700 been shown
00:28:48.140 to have no
00:28:48.800 evidence
00:28:49.200 whatsoever.
00:28:50.360 So we
00:28:51.780 know that
00:28:52.260 the media
00:28:52.740 can just
00:28:53.720 change reality
00:28:55.240 for half
00:28:55.820 of the
00:28:56.060 country.
00:28:57.380 What happens
00:28:58.280 if the
00:28:59.360 media just
00:29:00.080 decides to
00:29:01.980 say Biden
00:29:02.900 won the
00:29:03.420 election when
00:29:05.020 he didn't?
00:29:07.460 Now the
00:29:08.060 first thing
00:29:08.480 you're going
00:29:08.740 to say to
00:29:09.080 me,
00:29:09.720 because this
00:29:10.200 would be
00:29:10.440 your first
00:29:10.820 reaction,
00:29:11.300 is,
00:29:11.900 well,
00:29:12.120 Scott,
00:29:12.660 there's a
00:29:13.320 vote.
00:29:15.620 We're going
00:29:16.200 to have a
00:29:16.640 vote count,
00:29:17.520 no matter how
00:29:18.460 long it takes,
00:29:19.140 we're going
00:29:19.460 to have a
00:29:19.880 final vote,
00:29:21.160 and one of
00:29:21.980 them is going
00:29:22.440 to have more
00:29:22.940 votes,
00:29:23.980 according to
00:29:24.860 the Electoral
00:29:25.380 College,
00:29:26.300 so this
00:29:27.720 isn't the
00:29:28.200 sort of
00:29:28.500 thing that
00:29:28.900 the media
00:29:29.500 could just
00:29:30.040 make disappear.
00:29:32.400 You can't
00:29:33.120 make an
00:29:33.400 election disappear,
00:29:34.760 right?
00:29:35.960 It's just
00:29:36.540 too big,
00:29:37.440 too much
00:29:38.420 objective
00:29:39.080 data,
00:29:39.880 everybody in
00:29:40.420 the world
00:29:40.720 is watching.
00:29:41.880 So under
00:29:42.280 those conditions,
00:29:43.840 the mainstream
00:29:45.060 media can't
00:29:45.760 just make up
00:29:46.420 a reality
00:29:46.980 and sell it
00:29:47.600 to you,
00:29:48.000 can they?
00:29:49.080 And the
00:29:49.560 answer is,
00:29:50.180 yes,
00:29:50.700 they can.
00:29:52.060 The media
00:29:52.680 has the
00:29:53.420 power,
00:29:54.480 as of
00:29:55.000 today,
00:29:55.980 to do
00:29:56.420 the following.
00:29:58.000 Trump
00:29:58.440 wins the
00:29:59.000 election,
00:30:00.020 and the
00:30:00.660 media can
00:30:01.420 say that
00:30:01.900 Biden won
00:30:02.740 and sell
00:30:04.020 it.
00:30:06.100 They can
00:30:06.920 do that.
00:30:08.020 They do
00:30:08.720 have the
00:30:09.200 power,
00:30:09.880 and they've
00:30:10.440 proved it
00:30:11.120 by testing
00:30:12.540 small.
00:30:13.820 They can
00:30:14.460 make you
00:30:14.840 believe the
00:30:15.660 Covington
00:30:16.980 kids were
00:30:17.500 bad for a
00:30:18.300 week.
00:30:18.680 They can
00:30:18.960 make you
00:30:19.300 believe any
00:30:20.240 hoax.
00:30:21.360 They can
00:30:21.760 make you
00:30:22.120 believe that
00:30:22.780 things happened
00:30:23.600 and half
00:30:25.700 of the
00:30:25.900 country
00:30:26.180 believes it.
00:30:27.600 So,
00:30:28.000 now you
00:30:28.360 say to
00:30:28.600 yourself,
00:30:29.020 but still,
00:30:29.520 Scott,
00:30:29.820 it's going
00:30:30.220 to be
00:30:30.480 objectively
00:30:31.280 true that
00:30:33.180 somebody won
00:30:33.780 or somebody
00:30:34.200 didn't.
00:30:35.160 The Supreme
00:30:35.780 Court is
00:30:36.360 going to
00:30:36.820 rule,
00:30:37.520 maybe,
00:30:38.020 they might
00:30:38.540 get involved,
00:30:39.500 and then
00:30:39.940 there'll be
00:30:40.240 a ruling,
00:30:41.300 and that's
00:30:41.820 going to
00:30:42.000 be black
00:30:43.460 and white.
00:30:44.940 This is
00:30:45.600 one case,
00:30:46.480 Scott,
00:30:46.980 Scott,
00:30:47.420 Scott,
00:30:48.080 where you're
00:30:48.760 not going
00:30:49.040 to have
00:30:49.200 these two
00:30:49.660 movies on
00:30:50.220 one screen.
00:30:50.860 you're
00:30:51.640 going to
00:30:51.780 have one
00:30:52.280 president
00:30:52.720 when it's
00:30:53.180 done,
00:30:54.060 everybody
00:30:54.440 will see
00:30:55.000 all the
00:30:56.180 data,
00:30:56.760 we'll all
00:30:57.120 have the
00:30:57.440 same
00:30:57.640 information,
00:30:59.080 that's when
00:30:59.840 reality will
00:31:00.720 converge into
00:31:01.480 one thing
00:31:02.120 we all
00:31:02.620 see.
00:31:04.880 Maybe.
00:31:06.480 That's one
00:31:07.240 way it
00:31:07.600 could go,
00:31:08.880 and certainly
00:31:09.480 I hope it
00:31:09.940 goes that
00:31:10.300 way.
00:31:11.120 But let me
00:31:11.680 suggest the
00:31:12.620 following.
00:31:13.740 We know
00:31:14.520 that this
00:31:14.960 vote is
00:31:15.780 going to
00:31:16.180 be contentious
00:31:18.020 and contended,
00:31:19.780 meaning that
00:31:20.840 no matter
00:31:21.260 who wins,
00:31:23.100 see if you
00:31:23.620 would agree
00:31:23.980 with this,
00:31:24.480 no matter
00:31:24.820 who wins,
00:31:25.920 the other
00:31:26.340 side is
00:31:26.760 going to
00:31:26.980 say it
00:31:27.300 was rigged.
00:31:28.840 Right?
00:31:29.840 Is there
00:31:30.340 any chance
00:31:30.940 that's not
00:31:31.560 going to
00:31:31.820 happen?
00:31:32.700 Do you
00:31:33.040 see any
00:31:33.680 possibility,
00:31:34.500 no matter
00:31:34.820 who wins,
00:31:36.100 do you
00:31:36.440 see any
00:31:37.080 possibility
00:31:37.640 that the
00:31:38.260 other team
00:31:38.840 won't have
00:31:39.360 an argument,
00:31:40.740 might be a
00:31:41.240 good argument,
00:31:42.160 might be a
00:31:42.680 bad argument,
00:31:43.440 you might
00:31:43.780 agree with
00:31:44.380 it,
00:31:44.560 you might
00:31:44.820 not,
00:31:45.480 but there
00:31:45.920 will be
00:31:46.300 an argument
00:31:46.820 that the
00:31:48.000 other side
00:31:48.480 actually won.
00:31:50.060 We've never
00:31:50.780 quite had
00:31:51.480 that before,
00:31:52.800 except in
00:31:53.460 the Gore
00:31:54.740 versus Bush
00:31:55.440 days,
00:31:56.260 when we
00:31:56.920 were a
00:31:57.260 little less
00:31:57.620 divided and
00:31:58.340 the Supreme
00:31:58.820 Court could
00:31:59.300 just settle
00:31:59.760 it and we
00:32:00.280 would go
00:32:00.600 on with
00:32:00.980 life.
00:32:01.480 We're not
00:32:01.980 in that
00:32:02.300 place anymore.
00:32:04.280 It is
00:32:05.040 entirely
00:32:05.580 possible,
00:32:07.480 and at
00:32:08.060 the moment
00:32:08.500 slightly more
00:32:09.640 likely than
00:32:10.360 the other
00:32:10.800 alternatives,
00:32:11.680 that the
00:32:12.000 following will
00:32:12.640 happen.
00:32:14.020 Trump will
00:32:14.780 win according
00:32:16.200 to the things
00:32:16.860 we can
00:32:17.400 count.
00:32:17.900 the Democrats
00:32:19.280 will claim
00:32:20.240 that Biden
00:32:21.500 actually won
00:32:22.660 because of
00:32:23.660 this or that
00:32:24.340 irregularity or
00:32:25.560 something,
00:32:26.440 got counted
00:32:27.060 wrong or
00:32:27.720 there was
00:32:28.140 voter suppression
00:32:29.120 or the
00:32:30.400 wrong ballots
00:32:31.320 got not
00:32:32.860 counted in the
00:32:33.620 wrong state
00:32:34.200 or something.
00:32:35.220 So we're
00:32:35.820 going to have
00:32:36.460 two completely
00:32:39.220 different election
00:32:40.800 outcomes reported
00:32:42.240 by the two
00:32:43.500 different medias.
00:32:44.320 I feel like
00:32:46.100 that's going
00:32:46.520 to happen
00:32:46.980 more likely
00:32:48.460 than not.
00:32:49.160 Now the
00:32:49.380 alternative is
00:32:50.240 a landslide
00:32:52.000 by one or
00:32:52.820 the other
00:32:53.200 candidates.
00:32:54.700 I think
00:32:55.540 there's more
00:32:56.000 chance of a
00:32:56.680 Trump landslide,
00:32:58.420 but if you
00:33:00.140 had to go
00:33:00.640 with the odds,
00:33:01.320 you'd say it's
00:33:01.740 going to be
00:33:02.100 close no matter
00:33:02.860 what it is,
00:33:03.760 and votes
00:33:04.620 will be trickling
00:33:05.420 in that could
00:33:06.060 change the
00:33:06.620 outcome for
00:33:08.080 weeks.
00:33:08.660 I mean,
00:33:08.880 that's possible.
00:33:09.520 what happens
00:33:13.260 to the
00:33:14.200 United States
00:33:15.080 if the
00:33:16.340 media
00:33:16.800 presents us
00:33:17.820 with two
00:33:18.300 movies and
00:33:19.320 they won't
00:33:19.760 back off?
00:33:21.400 Could
00:33:22.100 Biden's
00:33:22.820 people actually
00:33:23.740 move into
00:33:24.460 the White
00:33:24.900 House having
00:33:26.300 lost the
00:33:27.040 election in
00:33:28.500 terms of
00:33:29.000 number of
00:33:29.480 votes,
00:33:30.300 according to
00:33:31.080 the Electoral
00:33:31.580 College?
00:33:32.820 Could Biden
00:33:33.660 and his
00:33:34.540 people actually
00:33:35.960 just pretend
00:33:37.180 they won
00:33:37.860 and have
00:33:39.380 half of
00:33:39.800 the country
00:33:40.260 so sure
00:33:41.000 it was
00:33:41.340 true that
00:33:42.760 they acted
00:33:43.460 as if
00:33:43.980 Biden won?
00:33:45.940 Yup.
00:33:47.780 Completely
00:33:48.340 feasible.
00:33:50.120 Now,
00:33:50.620 what happens
00:33:51.100 if Biden's
00:33:51.800 people show
00:33:52.560 up with
00:33:52.960 the moving
00:33:53.480 trucks and
00:33:54.760 they pull
00:33:55.100 up to the
00:33:55.520 White House
00:33:56.020 and Trump
00:33:57.080 is still
00:33:57.460 there because
00:33:58.000 he thinks
00:33:58.440 he won?
00:33:59.960 And the
00:34:00.300 people sitting
00:34:00.880 in the
00:34:01.140 moving truck
00:34:01.700 outside think
00:34:02.420 they won?
00:34:03.760 What happens?
00:34:05.380 Do you
00:34:05.780 call the
00:34:07.340 military?
00:34:09.080 If Trump
00:34:09.880 said,
00:34:10.460 okay,
00:34:11.240 military or
00:34:13.080 whatever security
00:34:14.140 for the
00:34:14.500 White House,
00:34:15.560 go throw
00:34:16.360 those movers
00:34:18.100 out.
00:34:18.660 They can't
00:34:19.200 be moving
00:34:19.620 stuff into
00:34:20.160 the White
00:34:20.660 House.
00:34:21.340 They lost
00:34:21.840 the election.
00:34:22.840 So tell
00:34:23.160 them they
00:34:23.500 can't come
00:34:23.960 in.
00:34:25.240 What if
00:34:25.620 they try?
00:34:27.400 Is there
00:34:28.020 anybody whose
00:34:28.760 job it is
00:34:29.660 to arrest
00:34:31.060 people who
00:34:31.620 believe they
00:34:32.220 won the
00:34:32.680 election from
00:34:34.060 moving into
00:34:34.660 the White
00:34:35.000 House,
00:34:35.300 which they
00:34:35.700 believe they
00:34:36.640 rightfully
00:34:37.700 won?
00:34:40.280 Think about
00:34:41.020 that.
00:34:41.840 You could
00:34:42.300 actually have
00:34:43.060 the moving
00:34:43.600 truck for
00:34:44.300 Biden,
00:34:44.960 figuratively
00:34:45.900 speaking,
00:34:46.520 a moving
00:34:46.840 truck,
00:34:47.960 pulling up
00:34:48.880 to the
00:34:49.100 White House
00:34:49.560 with Trump
00:34:50.860 sitting there
00:34:51.400 saying,
00:34:51.920 you didn't
00:34:52.180 win,
00:34:53.100 and the
00:34:54.180 entire
00:34:54.480 mainstream
00:34:54.980 media saying,
00:34:56.140 yeah,
00:34:56.340 Biden won.
00:34:57.920 Biden won.
00:34:58.660 When are you
00:34:59.060 moving out?
00:35:00.900 What do you
00:35:01.520 mean Trump
00:35:02.340 won?
00:35:02.540 That didn't
00:35:02.860 happen.
00:35:03.800 Biden won.
00:35:04.460 When are you
00:35:04.740 moving out?
00:35:05.880 And as
00:35:07.160 crazy as
00:35:08.020 this seems,
00:35:09.660 that's where
00:35:10.480 we're heading.
00:35:12.300 In other
00:35:12.900 words, I'm
00:35:14.100 not saying
00:35:14.540 that's where
00:35:15.080 it's going
00:35:15.740 to happen
00:35:16.300 because there
00:35:17.380 could be
00:35:17.620 lots of
00:35:17.980 twists and
00:35:18.420 turns.
00:35:19.120 There could
00:35:19.380 be that
00:35:20.500 landslide,
00:35:21.280 like I
00:35:21.560 said.
00:35:22.380 But I
00:35:22.980 feel like
00:35:23.420 it's a
00:35:23.840 60%
00:35:24.660 chance,
00:35:26.220 a 60%
00:35:27.280 chance that
00:35:28.780 Biden and
00:35:29.400 Trump will
00:35:29.920 both be
00:35:30.520 claiming victory
00:35:31.340 and the
00:35:32.520 respective
00:35:33.220 medias will
00:35:34.040 be backing
00:35:34.580 them.
00:35:35.460 And we
00:35:35.980 actually won't
00:35:37.160 have one
00:35:38.300 president.
00:35:39.440 We'll have
00:35:40.320 two.
00:35:41.640 And it
00:35:42.100 might be
00:35:42.440 like Venezuela
00:35:43.220 where Biden
00:35:44.840 becomes,
00:35:45.980 he thinks
00:35:46.820 he's president
00:35:47.420 and starts
00:35:48.800 acting like
00:35:49.580 president from
00:35:51.220 his house,
00:35:52.180 like Venezuela.
00:35:54.740 In Venezuela,
00:35:55.640 they had the,
00:35:56.220 you know,
00:35:56.520 the president
00:35:57.800 in exile or
00:35:59.760 whatever it
00:36:00.140 is,
00:36:00.840 and then
00:36:01.360 the acting
00:36:01.760 president.
00:36:03.120 But sort
00:36:03.600 of like,
00:36:04.260 depending who
00:36:04.780 you talk
00:36:05.180 to,
00:36:06.060 one of
00:36:06.520 them was
00:36:06.860 president or
00:36:07.500 the other.
00:36:08.740 We're kind
00:36:09.380 of heading
00:36:09.680 for that.
00:36:10.800 Now,
00:36:10.980 somebody said
00:36:11.480 the Supreme
00:36:12.080 Court will
00:36:12.660 settle it.
00:36:14.220 That was
00:36:15.140 before this
00:36:16.040 Supreme
00:36:16.520 Court.
00:36:17.940 Because this
00:36:19.340 Supreme Court
00:36:20.040 doesn't have
00:36:20.720 the credibility
00:36:21.520 of prior
00:36:22.520 Supreme
00:36:23.000 Courts,
00:36:23.860 because it's
00:36:24.420 so heavily
00:36:25.060 conservative at
00:36:27.400 this point.
00:36:27.900 so the
00:36:29.500 left part
00:36:30.080 of the
00:36:30.280 country is
00:36:31.600 not as
00:36:32.360 primed as
00:36:33.260 they ever
00:36:33.700 have been
00:36:34.260 to accept
00:36:35.540 a Supreme
00:36:36.140 Court decision,
00:36:37.680 even if,
00:36:39.100 even if they
00:36:40.420 used to.
00:36:42.180 This time
00:36:43.000 feels different.
00:36:44.480 So anyway,
00:36:45.000 there's some
00:36:45.680 possibility that
00:36:46.580 we'll have two
00:36:47.240 presidents for a
00:36:48.100 while.
00:36:48.500 That'll be
00:36:48.960 weird.
00:36:50.480 Which one
00:36:51.140 are you going
00:36:51.460 to obey?
00:36:51.840 if you're
00:36:58.360 wondering how
00:36:58.820 that will
00:36:59.140 be resolved,
00:37:01.200 I don't
00:37:01.660 know.
00:37:02.780 How do you
00:37:03.480 resolve that?
00:37:04.840 That'll be
00:37:05.420 hard to
00:37:06.200 resolve.
00:37:08.760 Here's a
00:37:09.420 reason that
00:37:09.980 there might
00:37:10.440 not be
00:37:11.180 violence
00:37:12.800 after the
00:37:13.580 election.
00:37:14.560 Are you
00:37:14.760 ready?
00:37:15.620 One reason
00:37:16.440 there might
00:37:16.880 not be
00:37:17.400 violence is
00:37:18.620 that we
00:37:18.940 won't know
00:37:19.400 who won.
00:37:19.880 Because if,
00:37:22.980 let's say on
00:37:23.580 election day,
00:37:24.460 the election
00:37:25.080 was called
00:37:25.780 for Trump,
00:37:26.960 and let's
00:37:27.360 say the
00:37:27.700 whole country
00:37:28.220 agreed that
00:37:29.000 okay, he
00:37:29.660 won by so
00:37:30.240 much, he
00:37:30.620 really did
00:37:31.040 win.
00:37:31.940 In that
00:37:32.740 case, you
00:37:33.600 would certainly
00:37:34.060 see mass
00:37:35.320 unrest, because
00:37:36.440 that's the
00:37:36.860 trigger.
00:37:37.840 Everybody's
00:37:38.360 waiting for
00:37:38.780 the starting
00:37:39.640 gun.
00:37:40.100 All right,
00:37:40.880 wait till
00:37:41.600 Trump gets
00:37:42.460 named the
00:37:43.180 president,
00:37:43.960 go.
00:37:45.520 But what
00:37:46.040 if the
00:37:46.900 news is we
00:37:47.920 were not
00:37:48.640 sure who's
00:37:49.220 president?
00:37:50.640 Do you
00:37:51.200 still have
00:37:51.620 a riot?
00:37:52.980 Because you
00:37:53.540 don't even
00:37:53.920 know if you
00:37:54.360 won or you
00:37:54.820 lost.
00:37:55.660 You're like,
00:37:56.140 ah, tonight?
00:37:58.340 Do we
00:37:58.920 riot tonight?
00:38:00.600 Now, they
00:38:00.940 might do
00:38:01.420 sort of, you
00:38:02.380 know, a
00:38:03.060 kind of a
00:38:03.640 riot where
00:38:04.180 they're just
00:38:04.520 supporting their
00:38:05.120 candidate, and
00:38:06.560 that would be,
00:38:07.200 you know, there
00:38:07.520 would be enough
00:38:07.860 trouble from
00:38:08.400 that.
00:38:09.020 But it's not
00:38:09.500 going to be the
00:38:09.920 full energy
00:38:10.720 riot as if you
00:38:12.460 thought you
00:38:12.860 lost.
00:38:14.400 That would be a
00:38:15.180 different level of
00:38:15.900 energy.
00:38:16.520 So it's
00:38:16.860 possible that
00:38:18.340 drawing out
00:38:19.140 the result is
00:38:21.020 the very best
00:38:21.740 thing that could
00:38:22.320 happen accidentally.
00:38:24.180 Because if you
00:38:24.980 draw it out, you're
00:38:25.980 going to take all
00:38:26.420 that energy that
00:38:27.240 would have been
00:38:27.780 concentrated on the
00:38:29.360 day after the
00:38:30.020 election, or
00:38:30.720 election night
00:38:31.480 actually, you
00:38:32.380 take all that
00:38:32.960 energy and you
00:38:33.540 just sort of
00:38:34.180 spread it out
00:38:35.600 over a few
00:38:36.200 weeks.
00:38:36.540 It's like, ah,
00:38:37.360 we don't know
00:38:38.180 who won.
00:38:39.020 I'm really angry
00:38:40.280 unless I'm not.
00:38:42.160 I really hate
00:38:43.180 what happened
00:38:43.840 unless I don't.
00:38:45.380 I'm really
00:38:46.700 going to be
00:38:47.060 angry tomorrow
00:38:48.060 unless I get
00:38:48.960 some more
00:38:49.360 data.
00:38:52.380 It could be
00:38:53.440 the weirdest
00:38:54.080 self-canceling
00:38:55.880 problems, because
00:38:56.740 you've got two
00:38:57.140 problems, right?
00:38:58.200 One is you're
00:38:59.000 not going to be
00:38:59.520 sure who got
00:39:00.160 elected, and
00:39:01.300 then the second
00:39:01.820 problem is
00:39:02.500 unrest in the
00:39:03.720 streets.
00:39:04.780 What if the
00:39:05.680 fact that we
00:39:06.200 don't know who
00:39:06.780 got elected
00:39:07.400 takes all the
00:39:08.840 energy out of
00:39:09.440 the protest?
00:39:10.620 Now, it's not
00:39:11.320 going to take it
00:39:11.740 all out.
00:39:12.180 There will
00:39:12.400 definitely be
00:39:13.100 protests.
00:39:14.220 There will
00:39:14.460 definitely be
00:39:15.080 people in
00:39:15.480 the streets,
00:39:15.940 no matter
00:39:16.360 what.
00:39:17.040 It doesn't
00:39:17.320 matter which
00:39:17.720 way it goes.
00:39:18.280 There's going
00:39:18.540 to be people
00:39:18.960 in the streets.
00:39:20.380 But I feel
00:39:22.640 as if it's
00:39:23.760 not going to
00:39:24.160 be anything
00:39:24.760 like a civil
00:39:26.700 war.
00:39:28.140 And the
00:39:28.700 reason is that
00:39:29.400 the Republicans
00:39:30.520 don't want it
00:39:31.360 to be.
00:39:32.700 They don't
00:39:33.060 want it to
00:39:33.460 be.
00:39:33.940 You would
00:39:34.420 need two
00:39:34.980 sides that
00:39:35.520 want to
00:39:35.840 fight to
00:39:37.120 have a real
00:39:37.520 fight.
00:39:38.700 The Republicans
00:39:39.260 would rather
00:39:40.020 just follow the
00:39:41.700 rules and not
00:39:42.540 fight.
00:39:42.900 But suppose
00:39:45.780 it came to
00:39:46.840 it.
00:39:47.180 It came
00:39:47.520 down to
00:39:47.960 it.
00:39:49.100 If it came
00:39:49.820 down to
00:39:50.220 it, and I
00:39:50.660 don't want to
00:39:51.020 act as if
00:39:53.600 this is
00:39:54.340 something I
00:39:54.820 want to
00:39:55.300 happen.
00:39:56.420 So frame
00:39:57.500 this with the
00:39:58.180 idea that
00:39:58.740 nobody wants
00:39:59.500 the following
00:40:00.080 thing to
00:40:00.580 happen.
00:40:02.120 Probably
00:40:02.560 there's a
00:40:03.180 mass casualty
00:40:04.320 event in our
00:40:05.060 future.
00:40:06.040 Not right
00:40:06.760 away.
00:40:07.060 But if
00:40:08.400 you get
00:40:08.920 enough
00:40:09.560 people this
00:40:10.560 worked up,
00:40:11.760 sooner or
00:40:12.540 later you're
00:40:13.340 going to get
00:40:13.740 somebody who
00:40:14.560 has the
00:40:15.760 wherewithal and
00:40:16.600 the craziness to
00:40:17.640 do something
00:40:18.580 really, really
00:40:19.260 bad in a
00:40:20.080 large crowd of
00:40:20.760 people.
00:40:21.720 So that
00:40:22.560 might take
00:40:23.340 some of the
00:40:23.760 steam out of
00:40:24.220 the protests.
00:40:25.220 So one way
00:40:25.740 it could go is
00:40:26.540 a mass casualty
00:40:27.740 event that just
00:40:29.040 makes everybody
00:40:29.660 else stay
00:40:30.140 home.
00:40:31.640 We don't want
00:40:33.200 that to happen,
00:40:33.680 but I'd say
00:40:34.900 that's in the
00:40:35.460 top ten
00:40:36.060 possibilities,
00:40:38.600 a mass
00:40:38.980 casualty event.
00:40:39.820 It's probably
00:40:40.080 in the top
00:40:40.480 five, I
00:40:41.640 would guess.
00:40:42.580 And for
00:40:43.560 that to
00:40:43.960 happen, I
00:40:44.380 think the
00:40:44.820 left would
00:40:46.000 have to
00:40:46.800 kill more
00:40:48.280 people.
00:40:49.620 So if the
00:40:50.200 left get a
00:40:50.880 little bit more
00:40:51.460 deadly after
00:40:52.580 the election,
00:40:53.700 then the odds
00:40:54.540 of a mass
00:40:55.160 casualty event
00:40:56.120 which killed
00:40:56.900 mostly Antifa
00:40:58.220 and Black
00:40:58.700 Lives Matter
00:40:59.260 goes way
00:41:00.620 up.
00:41:02.020 But not
00:41:02.780 unless they
00:41:03.220 get pretty
00:41:04.580 bad, worse
00:41:05.740 than they
00:41:05.980 have been.
00:41:08.220 On the
00:41:08.780 good news,
00:41:11.500 oh, by
00:41:11.920 the way,
00:41:12.180 the Trafalgar
00:41:13.060 group,
00:41:14.140 Robert
00:41:14.640 Caheli, I
00:41:15.900 guess he's
00:41:16.240 the head of
00:41:16.620 that, and
00:41:17.760 he called
00:41:18.280 Trump as
00:41:19.460 the winner
00:41:19.860 in 2016,
00:41:21.080 and he was
00:41:21.380 correct, and
00:41:21.960 he is calling
00:41:22.700 Trump the
00:41:23.860 winner again
00:41:24.580 now.
00:41:26.060 So the
00:41:26.460 one guy
00:41:26.900 who got,
00:41:27.280 well, a few
00:41:27.820 people got it
00:41:28.360 right, but
00:41:29.180 one of the
00:41:29.700 few people
00:41:30.160 who got it
00:41:30.620 right is
00:41:33.200 calling it
00:41:33.760 for Trump
00:41:34.160 again.
00:41:35.400 So that
00:41:35.880 means something.
00:41:37.220 Here's a
00:41:37.660 little tidbit
00:41:38.200 of interest.
00:41:40.140 Did you
00:41:40.400 know that
00:41:40.780 Black and
00:41:41.240 Hispanic
00:41:41.500 young women
00:41:42.480 now attend
00:41:43.380 college at
00:41:44.120 higher rate
00:41:44.820 than white
00:41:45.540 young men?
00:41:48.160 Interesting.
00:41:49.360 This is more
00:41:50.140 to my
00:41:50.720 hypothesis that
00:41:54.200 the Republican
00:41:54.800 Party is
00:41:55.620 becoming a
00:41:56.340 male,
00:41:57.520 let's say,
00:41:59.340 male-focused
00:42:00.160 or oriented
00:42:01.040 or biased.
00:42:02.380 I guess
00:42:02.600 biased would
00:42:03.280 be the way.
00:42:04.060 The Republican
00:42:04.940 Party is more
00:42:05.660 male-biased,
00:42:07.040 and I think
00:42:07.720 will start to
00:42:08.440 absorb African
00:42:09.300 American men.
00:42:10.340 You're already
00:42:10.700 seeing that.
00:42:11.780 Whereas the
00:42:12.300 Democratic Party
00:42:13.060 is more of a
00:42:14.080 party of women,
00:42:15.440 which will
00:42:16.500 absorb women
00:42:18.280 and men who
00:42:19.980 think women
00:42:20.620 should be in
00:42:21.180 charge,
00:42:22.400 meaning that
00:42:25.140 they would
00:42:25.420 rather not be
00:42:25.980 in charge
00:42:26.320 themselves.
00:42:26.800 So I
00:42:29.500 think that's
00:42:29.840 where it's
00:42:30.060 going.
00:42:30.600 Long term,
00:42:32.680 the political
00:42:33.380 parties will be
00:42:34.300 separated by
00:42:34.940 gender more
00:42:36.460 than ethnicity.
00:42:38.420 That is my
00:42:39.140 prediction,
00:42:40.100 that the
00:42:40.820 black voters
00:42:42.580 will split,
00:42:44.420 and the males
00:42:45.620 will go
00:42:46.080 Republican,
00:42:47.300 the women
00:42:47.780 will stay
00:42:48.580 Democrat,
00:42:49.580 and that that
00:42:50.200 will be a
00:42:50.580 trend in the
00:42:51.060 future.
00:42:51.460 That's what I
00:42:51.880 predict.
00:42:53.180 All right.
00:42:53.460 All right.
00:42:56.800 There's another
00:42:57.800 theory about
00:42:59.460 why the
00:42:59.920 polls are so
00:43:00.900 off, and
00:43:02.420 that is the
00:43:03.260 revolution
00:43:04.160 theory.
00:43:05.760 And the
00:43:06.020 theory is that
00:43:06.740 the pollsters
00:43:07.560 are part of
00:43:08.200 a mass
00:43:09.120 effort to
00:43:10.760 make it look
00:43:11.480 as though
00:43:11.880 Trump stole
00:43:12.880 the election.
00:43:21.180 Somebody says
00:43:22.140 that I should
00:43:22.560 look no
00:43:22.980 further than
00:43:23.620 my own
00:43:24.140 chat as
00:43:25.800 to whether
00:43:26.300 Republicans
00:43:27.100 want to
00:43:27.720 follow the
00:43:28.200 rules.
00:43:29.100 Well, I
00:43:29.480 would say
00:43:29.840 if you
00:43:30.220 look at
00:43:30.680 what the
00:43:31.080 Republicans
00:43:31.500 have done
00:43:32.100 so far,
00:43:33.800 there's a
00:43:34.660 pretty strong
00:43:35.440 trend toward
00:43:37.120 them following
00:43:37.640 the rules.
00:43:39.360 I think
00:43:40.140 that's safe
00:43:40.600 to say.
00:43:41.500 So why
00:43:41.840 would that
00:43:42.140 change?
00:43:46.600 Such
00:43:47.040 speculation
00:43:47.700 about the
00:43:48.340 White House
00:43:48.820 moving in.
00:43:49.400 I'm just
00:43:49.640 looking at
00:43:50.000 your comments
00:43:50.720 here for a
00:43:51.140 moment.
00:43:51.600 Well, of
00:43:51.900 course it's
00:43:52.300 speculation.
00:43:53.060 That's what
00:43:53.380 we're doing
00:43:53.680 here.
00:43:54.600 All right.
00:43:55.800 there's
00:43:57.600 another
00:43:58.700 article in
00:43:59.560 the news
00:44:00.160 suggesting
00:44:00.820 that masks,
00:44:02.640 although a
00:44:03.720 mask of
00:44:04.200 course cannot
00:44:04.660 keep a
00:44:05.480 virus from
00:44:06.080 getting to
00:44:06.540 you completely,
00:44:08.180 but there's
00:44:09.140 mounting evidence
00:44:10.580 that the
00:44:11.020 amount of
00:44:11.700 virus you're
00:44:12.340 exposed to
00:44:13.020 can determine
00:44:14.040 how sick
00:44:14.700 you get
00:44:15.220 or even
00:44:15.640 if you
00:44:15.920 get sick.
00:44:17.100 So if
00:44:17.660 the masks
00:44:18.360 did nothing
00:44:19.040 but reduce
00:44:19.960 the viral
00:44:20.760 load,
00:44:21.980 even if
00:44:22.580 you got
00:44:23.060 the virus
00:44:23.680 every single
00:44:24.600 time,
00:44:25.780 let me
00:44:26.520 give you
00:44:26.880 an example.
00:44:27.460 Let's
00:44:27.600 say you
00:44:28.900 knew that
00:44:29.360 every time
00:44:29.980 you came
00:44:30.420 in contact
00:44:30.940 with another
00:44:31.780 masked
00:44:32.340 person and
00:44:33.600 you had
00:44:33.860 a conversation
00:44:34.780 that if
00:44:36.760 one of
00:44:37.120 you had
00:44:38.240 been
00:44:38.460 infected,
00:44:39.580 that the
00:44:39.920 odds of
00:44:40.380 your
00:44:40.560 coronavirus,
00:44:41.900 even if
00:44:42.380 both of
00:44:42.800 you have
00:44:43.120 masks,
00:44:44.160 if the
00:44:44.480 odds of
00:44:44.860 your
00:44:45.040 coronavirus
00:44:45.500 from
00:44:46.040 your
00:44:46.220 infected
00:44:46.680 body
00:44:47.440 getting
00:44:48.480 over to
00:44:48.940 the other
00:44:49.240 person,
00:44:49.900 let's
00:44:50.180 say it's
00:44:50.440 100%.
00:44:51.220 Let's
00:44:52.360 say if
00:44:52.680 you're
00:44:52.880 in a
00:44:53.120 room with
00:44:53.620 an
00:44:53.780 infected
00:44:54.180 person
00:44:54.640 who's
00:44:55.060 shedding
00:44:55.540 the virus,
00:44:56.980 your odds
00:44:57.520 of getting
00:44:57.920 it in
00:44:58.440 a five
00:44:58.920 minute
00:44:59.120 conversation,
00:45:00.100 even if
00:45:00.520 both of
00:45:00.920 you have
00:45:01.160 masks,
00:45:01.920 let's
00:45:02.180 say the
00:45:02.480 odds of
00:45:03.020 some
00:45:03.840 of that
00:45:04.140 virus
00:45:04.480 reaching
00:45:04.800 you
00:45:04.980 are
00:45:05.100 100%.
00:45:05.900 Because
00:45:06.820 that's
00:45:07.000 probably
00:45:07.280 true,
00:45:08.120 right?
00:45:08.660 Because
00:45:09.120 the virus
00:45:09.660 is aerosol,
00:45:11.920 it's coming
00:45:12.700 out of the
00:45:13.100 sides of
00:45:13.540 your mask,
00:45:14.240 because when
00:45:14.640 you exhale,
00:45:15.500 it's going
00:45:15.860 somewhere,
00:45:17.100 right?
00:45:17.360 It's got
00:45:17.680 to go
00:45:17.900 somewhere.
00:45:18.220 So the
00:45:19.540 room would
00:45:20.080 fill up
00:45:20.520 with virus,
00:45:21.420 the other
00:45:21.820 person would
00:45:22.340 be exposed
00:45:22.780 to it.
00:45:23.580 I feel
00:45:24.040 like you
00:45:24.380 could say
00:45:24.800 that the
00:45:25.160 odds of
00:45:25.700 the other
00:45:25.980 person being
00:45:26.620 exposed to
00:45:27.600 at least
00:45:28.600 one virus
00:45:29.520 particle,
00:45:30.220 if that's
00:45:30.760 what they're
00:45:31.080 called,
00:45:32.240 is 100%.
00:45:33.760 Probably,
00:45:35.760 right?
00:45:36.180 Because the
00:45:36.860 virus is sort
00:45:37.540 of floating
00:45:37.960 around wherever
00:45:38.820 you are if
00:45:40.000 you're infected.
00:45:41.120 But because
00:45:42.800 we know that
00:45:43.580 the amount
00:45:44.460 of the virus
00:45:45.220 is very
00:45:46.340 important to
00:45:47.000 whether you
00:45:47.460 get infected
00:45:48.160 in the
00:45:48.520 first place,
00:45:49.500 and if
00:45:50.040 you do
00:45:50.300 get infected,
00:45:51.480 it's a
00:45:52.100 really big
00:45:52.600 deal in
00:45:53.100 terms of
00:45:53.460 how bad
00:45:53.920 it becomes.
00:45:54.860 So if
00:45:55.160 you get a
00:45:55.520 big dose
00:45:56.180 in the
00:45:57.180 beginning,
00:45:57.720 you're going
00:45:58.020 to get
00:45:58.240 much sicker,
00:45:59.220 the scientists
00:45:59.660 say.
00:46:00.880 So here's
00:46:02.000 the question.
00:46:03.040 If the
00:46:03.540 mask does
00:46:04.500 not keep
00:46:05.080 you from
00:46:05.500 getting the
00:46:06.160 virus,
00:46:06.980 could it
00:46:07.580 keep you
00:46:08.000 from getting
00:46:08.500 it worse?
00:46:10.100 And the
00:46:10.500 scientists are
00:46:11.260 suggesting they
00:46:12.800 don't have a
00:46:13.560 controlled study
00:46:15.440 of this,
00:46:16.340 but they're
00:46:16.660 suggesting that
00:46:17.880 the common
00:46:18.440 sense of
00:46:19.060 it,
00:46:19.400 the logic,
00:46:20.740 the best
00:46:22.020 medical thinking
00:46:23.020 about it,
00:46:23.880 is that at
00:46:24.640 the very
00:46:24.980 least,
00:46:26.220 it would
00:46:26.620 reduce the
00:46:27.360 amount of
00:46:27.740 virus that
00:46:28.520 hits the
00:46:29.960 other person.
00:46:31.820 All right.
00:46:32.180 somebody says,
00:46:37.740 I'm very
00:46:38.040 happy today
00:46:38.680 because it's
00:46:39.180 only two
00:46:39.620 days until
00:46:40.160 the Trumpers
00:46:40.800 are silenced
00:46:41.540 and it's
00:46:42.460 game over.
00:46:44.760 You know,
00:46:45.520 this really
00:46:46.040 isn't the
00:46:46.540 election where
00:46:47.160 you want to
00:46:47.580 be overconfident.
00:46:50.200 Did you learn
00:46:51.420 nothing from
00:46:52.000 2016?
00:46:53.280 You know,
00:46:53.580 as a Trump
00:46:54.800 supporter,
00:46:55.920 even I learned
00:46:56.880 something from
00:46:57.480 2016,
00:46:58.120 which is,
00:46:59.680 you don't
00:47:00.060 really want
00:47:00.840 to be that
00:47:01.540 person who
00:47:02.900 the day before
00:47:03.620 the election
00:47:04.140 is a little
00:47:04.780 too confident.
00:47:06.620 Now,
00:47:07.100 I'm telling
00:47:07.740 you my
00:47:08.380 prediction,
00:47:09.860 but of course
00:47:10.520 we're human
00:47:11.180 beings,
00:47:12.360 right?
00:47:12.580 Anybody can
00:47:13.120 be wrong.
00:47:14.020 If it turns
00:47:14.560 out I'm
00:47:14.960 wrong,
00:47:15.400 I'll just
00:47:15.800 deal with
00:47:16.180 it.
00:47:16.580 It's not
00:47:16.900 going to
00:47:17.100 ruin my
00:47:17.500 day.
00:47:18.180 It won't
00:47:18.380 even ruin
00:47:18.740 my day,
00:47:19.960 much less
00:47:20.660 my life.
00:47:21.240 So I
00:47:22.100 hope that
00:47:22.800 most of
00:47:23.220 you can
00:47:23.960 be
00:47:25.980 similarly
00:47:26.900 relaxed
00:47:28.880 about this.
00:47:29.560 I don't
00:47:29.760 think there's
00:47:30.120 any chance
00:47:30.640 that Republicans
00:47:31.460 are going
00:47:31.880 to riot
00:47:32.720 if they
00:47:33.840 don't get
00:47:34.180 their way,
00:47:34.560 as long
00:47:34.800 as the
00:47:35.020 election
00:47:35.300 is fair.
00:47:38.600 So what
00:47:39.200 are you
00:47:39.360 going to
00:47:39.580 do after
00:47:40.220 election
00:47:40.600 day when
00:47:41.040 there is
00:47:41.420 unrest
00:47:41.940 everywhere?
00:47:42.780 What are
00:47:43.340 you going
00:47:44.220 to do?
00:47:45.320 How will
00:47:45.880 you stay
00:47:47.220 safe?
00:47:48.620 And here
00:47:49.280 is what I
00:47:49.800 suggest.
00:47:51.240 Number
00:47:51.680 one,
00:47:52.980 first of
00:47:53.680 all,
00:47:53.900 if Biden
00:47:54.400 wins in
00:47:55.540 a landslide,
00:47:57.020 there won't
00:47:57.520 be much
00:47:58.440 social unrest,
00:48:00.200 probably.
00:48:01.980 That's what
00:48:02.640 all the smart
00:48:03.160 people say.
00:48:04.160 I think it's
00:48:04.780 still possible
00:48:05.420 that the
00:48:06.400 looters and
00:48:07.240 protesters just
00:48:08.220 want to loot
00:48:08.740 and protest,
00:48:09.740 so there
00:48:10.100 might be
00:48:10.440 some of it
00:48:11.020 anyway.
00:48:11.720 But if
00:48:12.040 Biden gets
00:48:12.520 elected in
00:48:13.100 a landslide,
00:48:14.820 probably I
00:48:16.520 would agree
00:48:16.940 with most
00:48:17.460 of the smart
00:48:18.040 people who
00:48:18.620 say there
00:48:19.220 would be
00:48:19.440 less rioting.
00:48:21.240 But I
00:48:22.340 think Trump
00:48:23.080 is going
00:48:23.400 to win.
00:48:24.520 So, how
00:48:25.240 should you
00:48:25.620 prepare?
00:48:27.060 Well,
00:48:27.540 definitely you
00:48:28.240 should have
00:48:28.820 guns and
00:48:30.880 ammo, and
00:48:32.800 that's just a
00:48:33.740 good general
00:48:34.720 Second Amendment
00:48:36.620 advice.
00:48:38.200 So, it's
00:48:38.900 not even
00:48:39.320 advice specific
00:48:41.500 to this
00:48:42.880 situation.
00:48:43.800 Just in
00:48:44.340 general, you
00:48:45.680 should be
00:48:46.040 prepared for
00:48:46.860 whatever comes
00:48:47.980 your way.
00:48:49.280 But, keep
00:48:50.760 it in your
00:48:51.100 house, right?
00:48:52.780 I would
00:48:53.360 not go out
00:48:54.000 on the
00:48:54.320 porch with
00:48:55.700 your weapon.
00:48:57.460 I would
00:48:57.880 not display
00:48:59.500 my weapon,
00:49:00.900 unless your
00:49:01.900 house is under
00:49:02.500 attack, of
00:49:03.060 course, and
00:49:03.420 then all
00:49:04.000 bets are
00:49:04.780 off.
00:49:05.240 You have
00:49:05.580 to do what
00:49:05.960 you have
00:49:06.240 to do if
00:49:06.660 your house
00:49:07.540 is actually
00:49:08.100 under attack.
00:49:10.720 But, be
00:49:12.440 careful, right?
00:49:13.920 Just be
00:49:16.540 cool, and
00:49:17.920 try to get
00:49:18.600 through the
00:49:19.060 first couple
00:49:19.640 of weeks.
00:49:20.520 The first
00:49:20.920 couple of
00:49:21.280 weeks could
00:49:21.700 be rough.
00:49:22.800 But, just
00:49:23.160 try to be
00:49:24.560 a good
00:49:25.100 winner.
00:49:26.180 Try to be
00:49:26.880 a good
00:49:27.240 winner if
00:49:27.820 you win.
00:49:28.640 And, if
00:49:29.060 you lose,
00:49:29.600 try to be
00:49:29.940 a good
00:49:30.180 loser.
00:49:31.500 Because, that's
00:49:32.300 one thing we
00:49:33.060 can control,
00:49:33.880 right?
00:49:34.420 You can't
00:49:35.040 control
00:49:35.340 everything, but
00:49:36.480 you can
00:49:36.820 control if
00:49:37.660 you go
00:49:39.200 crazy.
00:49:40.200 You can
00:49:40.800 control if
00:49:41.520 you act
00:49:43.000 impulsively.
00:49:44.840 You can
00:49:45.360 control how
00:49:46.620 you influence
00:49:47.460 other people
00:49:48.060 by your
00:49:48.620 attitudes,
00:49:49.320 etc.
00:49:50.420 So, influence
00:49:51.420 what you can
00:49:52.020 influence, and
00:49:53.200 don't worry
00:49:54.220 about the
00:49:54.640 rest.
00:49:55.480 I don't
00:49:55.920 think there's
00:49:56.340 any chance
00:49:57.060 that the
00:49:57.400 United States
00:49:58.080 will be
00:49:58.560 dissolved in
00:49:59.460 the next
00:49:59.820 year because
00:50:00.860 of unrest.
00:50:02.160 I put the
00:50:02.980 odds of
00:50:03.460 that at
00:50:04.060 zero.
00:50:06.060 Zero.
00:50:07.500 You have
00:50:08.180 a very
00:50:09.460 biased
00:50:10.840 view, all
00:50:11.960 of us do,
00:50:12.820 a biased
00:50:13.420 view of
00:50:14.260 how many
00:50:14.800 people are
00:50:15.580 marching, and
00:50:16.740 how many
00:50:17.240 people want
00:50:17.920 to overthrow
00:50:18.620 the government.
00:50:19.920 It's a really
00:50:20.540 small number.
00:50:22.220 The rest of
00:50:22.820 us are just
00:50:23.360 not making
00:50:24.120 noise.
00:50:25.300 So, it
00:50:25.720 feels like
00:50:26.440 there's a
00:50:27.520 much bigger
00:50:28.120 movement than
00:50:28.840 there is.
00:50:29.340 It's small,
00:50:30.500 and we are
00:50:31.360 strong and
00:50:32.340 well-armed and
00:50:33.400 quite determined
00:50:34.160 to still be the
00:50:35.260 United States
00:50:36.140 by the end
00:50:37.420 of the year.
00:50:37.840 So, I
00:50:39.840 make this
00:50:40.320 commitment to
00:50:40.920 all of you.
00:50:42.480 We will be
00:50:43.220 the United
00:50:43.820 States
00:50:44.420 next year.
00:50:48.360 We will
00:50:49.060 not go
00:50:49.560 out of
00:50:49.820 business.
00:50:51.000 We will
00:50:51.620 not have a
00:50:52.220 civil war.
00:50:53.000 We will
00:50:53.320 not shoot
00:50:55.120 ourselves in
00:50:55.720 the foot.
00:50:56.900 Maybe a
00:50:57.380 little.
00:50:57.740 We might
00:50:58.080 wound
00:50:58.360 ourselves, but
00:50:58.980 we're not
00:50:59.280 going to kill
00:51:00.640 ourselves.
00:51:01.920 You will
00:51:02.440 be fine.
00:51:04.020 The
00:51:04.520 coronavirus
00:51:04.940 won't last
00:51:05.900 forever.
00:51:06.960 The economy
00:51:07.800 will survive.
00:51:10.240 Nobody will
00:51:10.840 starve.
00:51:13.080 It will be
00:51:14.040 uncomfortable,
00:51:15.560 and a lot of
00:51:16.120 people are
00:51:16.520 going to be
00:51:16.840 suffering, but
00:51:17.480 nobody's going
00:51:17.980 to starve in
00:51:18.620 this country,
00:51:19.760 and we're
00:51:21.460 going to be
00:51:21.780 okay.
00:51:23.460 So,
00:51:24.780 everybody,
00:51:25.720 be prepared,
00:51:26.580 but be
00:51:27.040 cool.
00:51:28.160 Be prepared,
00:51:29.400 but be
00:51:29.860 cool.
00:51:31.380 Emphasis on
00:51:32.160 be cool,
00:51:34.240 and I
00:51:34.800 will talk
00:51:35.160 to you
00:51:35.540 tomorrow,
00:51:37.560 if not
00:51:37.840 tonight.
00:51:40.600 See you
00:51:41.120 then.