Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1174 Scott Adams： Election Day in America and What to Expect

00:00:00.000 hey everybody come on in here having a little technical difficulty but I feel

00:00:16.080 like I solved it for some reason YouTube doesn't like to connect if I set it up

00:00:23.940 too early so I'll adjust on that good morning everybody good morning big day big day the

00:00:32.920 future of the country the United States future of the world it's all on today how do you feel

00:00:41.180 you feel good well I'll make sure that you feel better by the time you are done with this periscope

00:00:47.500 and one thing that will certainly make everything better you probably know what it is it's called

00:00:53.040 the simultaneous sip and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass a tank or chalice or a stein a

00:00:58.520 canteen joke or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join

00:01:05.420 me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything

00:01:11.500 better including democracy it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now

00:01:17.640 ah I feel the integrity of the elections improving with one sip that's all it took well let's talk

00:01:32.080 about all the things there are many things today um one of them is that although our rate of

00:01:41.160 coronavirus infections in this country is zooming up there's a surge it seems that the rate of deaths

00:01:49.800 is not zooming up it's closer to flat and so I'm curious how could it be that although the infections

00:02:02.640 are zooming up the rate that the number of deaths stays roughly the same the only way I can understand

00:02:11.720 that is if our ability to you know treat those patients and their ability to hide the vulnerable

00:02:19.900 is exactly keeping up with the rate of increase what are the odds of that right because you would expect

00:02:29.400 that those two rates of change to not be in balance that being in balance would be the biggest coincidence

00:02:37.040 what you would expect is that infections are zooming up and deaths would zoom up even if we're better

00:02:45.180 at treating them right you'd expect it maybe not as fast but it would be kind of normal to be you know

00:02:53.520 half as fast or something or let's say we were getting so good at treating people that even though the rate of

00:03:01.280 infection was zooming up the number of people dying was zooming down or even trending down but that's not

00:03:08.280 happening the number that are dying is just this sort of a flat line while the number of getting infected is

00:03:15.220 going through the roof it could be a coincidence it could be that those two rates of change how well we

00:03:23.060 protect and how well we treat people who get it is exactly keeping up with the surge in infections

00:03:31.140 maybe or is it just that there's a several week lag between infections and deaths so you'd need

00:03:41.220 something like a one month lag for those numbers to start conforming and that's just about now so if we

00:03:49.720 don't see a big increase in in deaths in the united states we have another mystery which is why is it so

00:03:57.440 balanced

00:03:58.060 all right i did a walk around last night took a nice walk beautiful night last night and i was looking for

00:04:07.740 campaign signs and found in the end i found three biden houses three houses with biden signs on the lawn

00:04:18.760 number of houses with uh trump signs in my neighborhood now it's i live in blue california

00:04:26.800 so the number of trump signs in my neighborhood zero

00:04:31.240 no not a single trump sign but

00:04:37.280 but there were a suspicious number of american flags flying yesterday

00:04:44.920 never noticed them before they looked like they had just been put up

00:04:50.500 so how would you like to be the candidate let's say joe biden and you're running against a candidate

00:04:59.040 whose political logo is indistinguishable from the brand of the country

00:05:06.280 trump actually became synonymous with the american flag now republicans already had a bias in that

00:05:15.400 direction but because you feel a little uncomfortable putting up a trump sign but you might feel a little

00:05:23.800 bit more comfortable putting up an american flag the american flag just became a substitute for a trump

00:05:30.320 sign how would you like to run against that i mean really running against the guy

00:05:37.200 who is now synonymous with the american flag

00:05:40.640 that's a tough one that's a tough one and if i were

00:05:45.760 a democrat today there would be

00:05:49.600 some kind of a song or sound going through my head

00:05:53.680 what would it be

00:05:56.080 hmm

00:05:58.960 mice

00:06:00.400 might sound something like that

00:06:10.800 um

00:06:13.040 all right so rasmussen

00:06:15.840 uh did some research

00:06:18.480 and they were asking who people expected to win

00:06:22.380 you know sort of an optimist versus pessimist sort of a situation

00:06:26.460 and trump voters expect a winner today more than biden

00:06:32.620 voters do so trump voters are expecting that we'll know the winner today more so than

00:06:39.420 biden voters um

00:06:43.340 and uh let's see

00:06:46.300 yeah that's that's the big difference is that trump supporters expect some something today

00:06:51.020 um

00:06:53.900 now how would you like to have biden as your champion

00:06:58.220 and knowing that he's the guy

00:07:01.340 who would surrender

00:07:04.060 the fastest

00:07:05.820 because he would right

00:07:07.660 let's let's say the vote is ambiguous

00:07:11.100 and we get to a place where it's

00:07:13.500 could go either way you know there's an argument

00:07:15.900 and you're just not sure even who won

00:07:19.020 which one of those two players trump or biden

00:07:22.620 is more likely to say i think i'll

00:07:25.740 i'll concede

00:07:27.500 for the you know benefit of the country because i'm a

00:07:30.780 i want to be a good character kind of a person

00:07:34.060 it's kind of biden isn't it

00:07:36.460 biden is the guy

00:07:38.380 you'd expect to cave first

00:07:41.340 if you know if he thought there would be trouble or something

00:07:44.380 so i'd hate to have my champion be the guy that i'm pretty sure would surrender first

00:07:50.460 in a in a fight

00:07:54.540 so of course the big question is the shy trump supporters will they will they show up

00:07:59.340 and how many of them are actually shy

00:08:02.540 and i want to get this on the record in case it's right

00:08:07.580 because it would be great to be right about this

00:08:09.580 i feel like the larger group is the dad joke

00:08:13.820 people and by dad joke i mean the the republicans who

00:08:17.980 lie to pollsters not because they're necessarily shy

00:08:21.900 or not necessarily because they don't want to be in somebody's database

00:08:25.740 as a trump supporter but because they think it's hilarious

00:08:29.740 and because they don't trust any of the professionals or any of the experts

00:08:34.380 at anything anymore and so my belief is that enough people got the idea enough republicans

00:08:44.380 and conservatives got the idea of lying to pollsters that it just became a thing

00:08:50.780 now when i do my uh my unscientific queries on twitter and ask people how many have lied to pollsters

00:08:59.500 there's a lot of you as in hundreds of you responding just to my tweet now

00:09:08.460 let's say you were uh you're a democrat and you hear that one person's tweet now i've got 590 000

00:09:18.060 followers but on any given tweet they don't all see the tweet right some subset of that see the tweet and

00:09:25.660 uh if if you had heard this and you're a democrat what would you feel when you thought wait a minute

00:09:38.460 are you telling me that there are two reasons we might not be picking up trump supporters and polls

00:09:44.140 one is that they're shy but i wasn't worried about that one because i think the pollsters corrected

00:09:52.700 so they figured out how to how to correct for those shy trump supporters so that's not a problem

00:10:00.700 but what's this bigger group you're talking about scott this dad joke group who just think

00:10:07.820 it would be funny and subversive to lie to pollsters they don't really exist in big numbers do they

00:10:21.900 yeah they do yeah they do um now we don't know if it's enough to win do we i mean we don't know for

00:10:34.060 sure who's going to win but if you're telling me there are not a lot of dead joke republicans who

00:10:40.060 lied to pollsters that much i can tell you i'm very confident about i don't know if it's enough nobody

00:10:47.900 knows that but there are a lot of them there are a lot of them let me tell you something else that

00:10:53.820 you probably don't realize if you're a biden supporter and you're not good at math let's say

00:11:00.540 you believe that biden is up by pick a number let's say you think biden is up nationally by

00:11:09.260 four points whatever five points let's say you think that's that's the number he's he's up five points

00:11:15.820 nationally do you understand that it would only take a few percent of those people in other words

00:11:25.420 all it would take is that half of those people lied two and a half people two and a half percent

00:11:31.980 in order to erase the five percent because you understand that if people lied they said they were

00:11:37.740 biden supporters so that adds one to biden but it also subtracts one from trump so if you reverse that

00:11:44.860 it's a two per it's a two vote swing so that five percent margin you think you have that's not five

00:11:53.180 percent that's two and a half percent because if those people leave they're going somewhere and

00:11:59.820 they're not going home they're going to trump so it's not really a five percent gap or whatever you

00:12:06.860 think it was seven eight percent whatever number you decided to believe it's half that and then when

00:12:13.420 you half it you get really close to the margin of error for the polls themselves meaning that you're

00:12:22.140 already within striking distance if you just cut it in half so um i think it's it's going to be quite a

00:12:31.900 nervous making day for democrats again we don't know who's going to win but i'd be a lot more worried

00:12:37.900 if i were a democrat for sure and of course they also have the ptsd of 2016 hanging over them

00:12:46.860 so if you were on the winning side in 2016 and you wanted trump to win you just had a good day

00:12:52.860 maybe a really good day i know i did but if you were a democrat and it was just a crushing defeat

00:13:00.700 and it gave you ptsd and as andrew sullivan said he actually went into a clinical depression after

00:13:07.420 trump won he's not alone a lot of people went into clinical depression after trump won i think

00:13:13.900 that's definitely a thing um so you would have that in your mind like this gigantic weight because you're

00:13:21.820 like oh not again not again but trump supporters don't have that weight because well if you lose you're

00:13:29.980 going to be unhappy right everybody who loses is unhappy but you don't have that ptsd thing hanging

00:13:36.940 over you it's not it's not going to be twice as bad it'll it'll be new to you if if it happened

00:13:44.220 so it's much worse for democrats um

00:13:50.460 tucker carlson did an episode yesterday that i thought was one of his more brilliant

00:13:54.700 monologues in the beginning and he talked about why it is that voters don't just vote for trump but

00:14:02.460 in many cases they seem to love him actually be in love what's up with that right because you see a

00:14:11.580 lot of people who support joe biden but correct me if i'm wrong you don't really see voters who are in

00:14:20.300 love with him and i say in love like it's almost romantic because the affection for trump is really

00:14:27.420 really personal am i right the the trump affection is about the person as much as the politics there's

00:14:35.500 something they like about him now i get that half the country has a negative reaction and you know

00:14:41.260 they're violently opposed as much as people love him but he certainly stokes emotion

00:14:46.220 he certainly gets your emotions going yeah he even had a there was a the amish actually had a trump

00:14:53.580 caravan with trump signs and their little uh horses and carriages

00:14:59.260 if you hear that the amish have gone for uh have gone for trump

00:15:04.940 yeah that's what you hear in your mind and so so what uh tucker surmised

00:15:20.620 his hypothesis is that the reason that uh trump voters are in love with him and not just supporting

00:15:27.420 him politically is that they feel he's the first politician that loved them and when i heard that

00:15:35.180 the first time i thought it does feel like that it does feel like that he's he is the the blue-collar

00:15:42.380 billionaire kind of guy and if you were in the midwest you'd lost your manufacturing job etc wouldn't

00:15:49.820 you feel that trump actually cared about you which is interesting because the biggest complaint about

00:15:56.700 trump trump is a lack of empathy right that's the biggest complaint but i would argue that there are

00:16:04.780 two ways to show empathy one is the things you say i sure do feel bad for you i will fight hard for you

00:16:16.780 words are part of how we detect empathy but trump is not that guy and never has been he's not the

00:16:23.820 empathy in words guy and when he does it he has to do it as part of his job but when he does it it's

00:16:31.660 it's not as you know doesn't touch you like some somebody else like a like a cuomo or somebody who's 0.99

00:16:38.300 real good with that emotional type of speech but the thing that trump does is he does what he said he

00:16:45.980 would do which is he would help a certain uh class of americans he's basically shoving a boot up china's 0.99

00:16:54.380 ass for the swing states if you think about it i mean he basically is just putting his whole damn boot 0.99

00:17:05.740 up to the brim in in president xi's ass to get some kind of relief for people who have manufacturing 0.99

00:17:15.740 jobs he's taking the manufacturing right out of there maybe put it in puerto rico he says i don't know 0.95

00:17:22.220 if that's the best idea frankly because of hurricane risk but uh in terms of having a an important

00:17:28.460 manufacturing asset there like pharmacies pharmaceuticals but let's say we could protect them from a hurricane

00:17:36.540 it feels like that's a pretty plausible explanation from uh tucker carlson that the people who vote for

00:17:46.300 him actually feel that he cares about them and it's based on what he does it's not based on it's not

00:17:53.260 based on his words which i think is very midwestern wouldn't you say um if you if you don't understand

00:18:01.260 sort of that part of the world let me explain it to you it's about what you do it's not about your

00:18:08.620 colorful words you know we're not too interested in your flowery explanations and your big vocabulary

00:18:17.900 words are good but what did you do you know what you actually do and trump wins on that another

00:18:25.980 hypothesis is from an article i tweeted around this morning that i thought was fascinating so you

00:18:31.740 have to know that the person who wrote it is a person of color i think i don't know middle eastern

00:18:38.860 maybe in terms of heritage uh so i don't know too much about the writer but was not a generic white guy

00:18:46.140 that's the only point i'm trying to make so not a generic white guy wrote the following hypotheses

00:18:53.180 and his article was which was very good um and he says the thing that people are missing

00:19:01.100 is that minorities don't like each other

00:19:05.740 now that's why i say it's important that this was not written by a generic white guy there are just

00:19:11.260 some messages that sound better coming from different people and so a person of color can write that and

00:19:18.060 you can say okay i'll take that seriously if if some generic white guy writes that you say ah racist

00:19:23.740 right so and his point was that for example i'll just give you one example that black men i don't know

00:19:32.780 if he said men or just black americans are pretty strong on border walls because illegal immigration

00:19:44.300 competes for jobs so if you're in the in the black american voter category you're saying to yourself wait a

00:19:52.700 minute trump is protecting me i i'm in the exact group of you know workers in america who are at risk

00:20:01.740 and trump is protecting me so maybe you feel a little bit racist yourself meaning that minorities often

00:20:12.460 have negative feelings about other minority groups and so you shouldn't expect that everybody is just

00:20:19.820 because they might might also be anti some other minority group that they think trump is against or at

00:20:27.420 least his policies seem to be you know not stacked in their favor so that's that's an interesting

00:20:34.460 wild card that i hadn't really thought of uh and getting back to my point about uh people falling falling

00:20:42.620 falling in love with trump there are little things that the trump's do that bond you to them and you could easily

00:20:51.980 miss them all right you could easily miss them i'm going to give you an example of something that don jr did this

00:20:58.940 morning that it's a very small thing it's just the smallest little thing but it's that x factor

00:21:08.380 that bonds you to somebody that makes you not just like them but just you're bonded to them and it goes like

00:21:15.180 this so you may know that uh mark schneider who's active on twitter and talks about uh nuclear power

00:21:25.180 he's nuclear power advocate and he got banned from twitter suspended i guess suspended for the following

00:21:33.660 tweet that i'm going to read and uh i think if you get banned from twitter you're still allowed to be on

00:21:39.500 periscope that's true right so mark if you're watching and you might be um i'm going to read

00:21:46.060 your tweet that they got you suspended on twitter and i don't know why and i'll get to the don jr part

00:21:52.380 of this story in a minute so here's what uh mark tweeted that got him suspended he said seems like biden

00:21:59.180 is trying to lose at this point lady gaga insulted americans with her redneck video and now she's going 1.00

00:22:06.940 to campaign with sleepy joe in fracking country pennsylvania will be called for trump at 9 pm eastern

00:22:14.060 time now what part of that gets you suspended i i had to like read this 10 times and i still don't know

00:22:25.420 what is it about this that gets us suspended because let's just break it down um saying that biden is

00:22:34.780 trying to lose does that get you suspended lots of people have said that that's actually a fairly

00:22:39.500 common tweet uh lady gaga insulted americans with her redneck video redneck's not a banned word is it 0.59

00:22:48.620 i don't think so um lady gaga that's okay um she's going to campaign with sleepy joe that's okay in

00:22:56.940 fracking country it is and then the last sentence maybe this is what got him suspended

00:23:02.460 suspended i don't know yeah suspended from twitter um where he said pennsylvania will be called for

00:23:09.340 trump at 9 pm are you telling me that an ordinary citizen can't make a prediction about something

00:23:17.820 fairly ordinary what could be more ordinary than predicting a candidate will claim victory and that's

00:23:24.780 the most ordinary thing you could say so what about this got him banned or suspended is the right word i

00:23:32.060 guess i don't know and being you know and this is extra bad because wouldn't you like to be on twitter

00:23:39.580 today if you're if you're a real active twitter user as mark is being banned on election day for

00:23:47.420 something this lame is really it's cruel you know today's the day you want to be on twitter so i'd like

00:23:57.500 to see that you know certainly reversed today if it's possible mark schneider on twitter all right

00:24:04.700 here's the don jr connection so i i saw the tweet somebody else took a screenshot of the of the tweet

00:24:11.260 that got mark suspended we think it is maybe it's not that tweet but i think it is that one and i retweeted

00:24:17.900 that uh with my own comment which was uh what the f except i spelled out the f word so my only tweet was

00:24:26.860 what the f so here's the don jr connection he's he's the son of the sitting president of the united states

00:24:36.380 and he retweeted my tweet i'm going to use the full word because we need to use it in this context the

00:24:42.460 story isn't this good without the actual f word in use so hide the kids there's an f word coming 0.98

00:24:49.180 so don jr retweets me without comment just retweets my tweet that says what the fuck 0.94

00:24:56.380 and in that moment i felt bonded to him to don jr because he's not supposed to retweet that 0.98

00:25:06.780 because there's an f word there right he is the son of the president he's not supposed to take this

00:25:12.860 kind of risk but not only does it of course it agrees with his you know political opinions on

00:25:19.820 censorship against uh conservatives but it also seemed supportive of mark meaning that

00:25:27.980 he took a little personal reputational risk don jr did to retweet an f word

00:25:34.300 supporting mark schneider because he's just a you know ordinary american who seems to be getting

00:25:40.700 screwed by a social media platform at the moment so it's such a small thing right because he could

00:25:47.660 have easily ignored that tweet just easily would you have known if he had ignored it you wouldn't know

00:25:54.460 if he'd ever seen it so ignoring it would be the easiest thing he could have done no risk

00:25:59.340 you know doesn't get in trouble for for retweeting an f word doesn't make him look you know crude to

00:26:05.900 some people but he didn't he just said i'll retweet that it's so small but it's those little x factor

00:26:14.300 things that bind you to somebody because you see he took a risk for a stranger an american

00:26:22.300 um and i tweeted this provocatively i said uh you know when you go to vote do you want to vote for

00:26:35.740 the the candidate whose followers would stop to help you change a tire in a dangerous neighborhood

00:26:42.940 or would you rather vote for the candidate who um wouldn't do that you know basically you could

00:26:53.740 break it down you could make it simpler and just say how about the candidate who wouldn't do that

00:26:58.540 you know their followers not the candidate and when you watch the uh the rallies do you see any angry

00:27:07.580 people at a trump rally you really don't do you and there was a uh a trans um i never know the right 0.99

00:27:17.020 vocabulary so i'll i will i will couch this by saying i don't know the right vocabulary but i'm not

00:27:25.020 trying to be insensitive or anything else but a somebody who identified themselves as a trans person

00:27:32.380 said that i'm wrong and that um it would be more dangerous for this trans person to be in a 0.81

00:27:43.980 republican neighborhood than in a democrat neighborhood do you believe that do you believe

00:27:49.340 it would be more dangerous for a transsexual individual to be in a republican neighborhood 1.00

00:27:56.220 than in a democrat neighborhood you know we're just looking in general as a general average

00:28:03.340 i don't feel like that's even close to being true indeed um let me state something that might

00:28:09.660 surprise you a little bit but from the first moment that trump was running for president and maybe

00:28:18.540 or you can say from the time he got nominated let's say from the time he got sworn in have you heard

00:28:25.180 any republicans saying anti-gay stuff because i haven't it's like republicans just stopped caring 0.73

00:28:33.340 completely and why wouldn't they is there a republican that thinks they should be in your pants 0.98

00:28:39.820 no no there are no republicans who think that they should have a vote about your genitalia now they were 0.97

00:28:48.060 concerned about gay marriage at one point that seems to have passed but that was more about their 0.53

00:28:53.580 tradition you know their religious tradition it wasn't so much anti-gay i know you think it is and

00:29:00.540 certainly i'm in favor of gay marriage so i was never on that side but it was it was more about them

00:29:06.620 preserving something that they thought was their you know special cultural thing it wasn't anti anything

00:29:13.260 in my opinion that's just my take on it but i've not seen anything that would even suggest even

00:29:19.980 remotely the republicans are somehow anti-lgbtq i don't see it at all in real life

00:29:29.340 all right um if trump wins re-election and i think you will

00:29:35.820 the pundits who got everything wrong again how are they going to explain how they were wrong the first

00:29:42.940 time they used russia collusion i suppose they could use you know voter suppression again that would be an

00:29:49.820 obvious one but i feel like they're going to fall back to well there are more more racists than we

00:29:55.740 thought well it turns out turns out i underestimated how many racists there are in the country i think

00:30:02.780 that would be their fallback excuse kind of kind of derivative of last year um here's another thought

00:30:12.540 fast forward to the future it's uh one month from today and so close your eyes go one month into the

00:30:20.060 future and let's say trump won all the democrats

00:30:27.340 who thought it was a good idea to run joe biden against trump are they going to look back at that

00:30:33.820 decision as possibly a little bit flawed because they chose someone who's decaying right in front of

00:30:42.860 us to run against the most energetic force of nature the country has ever seen you know in retrospect

00:30:52.860 once you get past you know the the noise of it all as soon as it slows down a little bit and you can

00:30:59.180 start to think a little more calmly and objectively about what we've experienced for the past year

00:31:04.780 if you're a democrat are you going to say to yourself i think we picked the right person

00:31:11.660 i don't feel like it i feel like they're going to feel really embarrassed about the fact that they

00:31:17.980 picked biden because uh you know i've told you this story when i when i met the president in the oval

00:31:23.660 office in 2018 he asked me who i thought way back in 2018 who i thought would be the candidate

00:31:30.460 i said i thought it would be kamala harris he said the president said he thought it would be joe biden

00:31:37.020 i said it won't be joe biden because he doesn't stand a chance against you he would be the weakest

00:31:44.220 candidate and my my thought at the time goes like this if you if you took president trump

00:31:50.220 and then you started selectively removing all the things you like about him it's like all right

00:31:56.620 he's you know he's going to be tough with china i like that but let's let's remove that from him 1.00

00:32:01.740 uh he's going to be a real fighter he's going to be tough on immigration he's going to all the

00:32:05.500 things you like about him just take them out of there he's got high energy he's you know he can

00:32:10.220 really persuade he can get things done he can kick some butt you take all that away from him and what

00:32:16.220 would you have left joe biden you would have joe biden if you took everything that's good away

00:32:23.580 from trump that's what would be left now so in my mind he was the worst matchup the best matchup

00:32:31.820 would have been somebody different like a hillary clinton because hillary clinton doesn't look like a 1.00

00:32:37.020 weak version of trump the hillary clinton looked like hillary clinton she was her own person if uh if 0.99

00:32:44.540 trump had run against let's say elizabeth warren just to pick one example i think she would have

00:32:49.660 lost but nobody would have said huh elizabeth warren looks like just a weak version of trump 0.98

00:32:56.700 nobody would have said that they would have said she's just elizabeth warren uh likewise kamala harris

00:33:02.460 they would have just said she's kamala harris but joe biden looks like the version of trump

00:33:08.220 after it's been beaten to death you know that's just a bad matchup so that's why i thought he

00:33:15.580 wouldn't get as far as he's gotten so i was wrong about how close he would get and if he wins i'll be

00:33:20.220 really wrong um i'll be i'll be happy to admit that by the way by the way let me say this as clearly as

00:33:27.500 possible if i'm wrong i'm not planning to be wrong but if i'm wrong about who wins the presidency

00:33:34.460 i'm not going to be embarrassed about that um and i'm and i'm certainly going to be completely

00:33:41.340 public about it because you shouldn't be concerned about being wrong about something you couldn't

00:33:47.020 possibly know you know we're all just predicting if the stock market is up today and i think it is

00:33:56.140 last i checked uh it's not because all the smart people are expecting their taxes to go up

00:34:03.580 now you see where i'm going with this why would it be that the polls all say biden's going to win

00:34:09.740 easily but the stock market doesn't usually vote for tax increases which is what higher stocks would

00:34:18.780 be telling you they'd be telling you that they're if the stock market thought biden was going to win

00:34:23.980 then the stocks would be going up on a tax increase that doesn't happen stocks go down if you think

00:34:32.700 taxes are going up so i think the stock market has voted for trump or voted that other people will vote

00:34:39.660 for trump so if i knew that the stock market was up and my candidate was the one pushing for higher taxes

00:34:48.140 for those very people who buy stocks what would i start to think

00:34:52.540 yeah

00:35:04.700 here's another good point from

00:35:06.540 uh gunletch what's his first name is it martin or something a big money manager guy ceo and chief

00:35:15.340 investment offices of double line capital and he's saying uh why is it that uh biden is so worried

00:35:21.900 about trump claiming victory and i thought to myself well why wouldn't he be you know why wouldn't

00:35:29.180 biden be worried that trump will claim victory why wouldn't you be worried about that and gun lack

00:35:35.500 makes a good point if the polls are correct and biden also believes the polls there's not really any

00:35:43.580 chance that trump is going to be able to claim success right if the national polls are even close to be

00:35:51.580 incredible the vote will be just so obviously biden that trump doesn't really have any path to claim

00:35:58.780 that he won so it must be and this is a pretty good pretty good thinking i would say it doesn't

00:36:06.460 have to be right but i think it is that biden's internal polling doesn't show him being that much

00:36:13.740 ahead right because why would biden even care what trump does if he's going to win by nine he doesn't

00:36:22.860 care what trump does trump would be irrelevant forever if the polls are correct so

00:36:32.380 somebody in the comments said i'm bald and so i'm not credible that might be true dr bandy lee do you

00:36:39.260 remember dr bandy lee was the one who was going on television saying that president trump had mental

00:36:45.500 problems uh how long ago a couple years ago and she got in trouble for a tweet now if you ever believed 0.86

00:36:55.500 that dr bandy lee was credible and smart because she has credentials and she was saying the president

00:37:02.700 is mentally incompetent uh just consider what she tweeted uh and i guess she had to delete this tweet 0.52

00:37:09.740 she got in some trouble she tweeted donald trump is not adolf hitler lee began quote at least hitler 0.79

00:37:17.020 improved the daily life of his followers what had discipline and required more of himself to gain the

00:37:23.340 respect of his followers and she goes on but it doesn't matter so dr bandy lee famous trump critic

00:37:35.260 decided decided to go uh with a comparison of trump to hitler and and praise hitler's qualities of uh

00:37:44.300 improving the daily life of his followers his discipline and requiring more of himself 0.91

00:37:52.380 how dumb do you have to be to praise hitler on twitter and think that's going to go okay for you 0.97

00:37:57.820 so whatever you thought of dr bandy lee when she was criticizing trump 0.99

00:38:05.900 just keep in mind that she also uh praised hitler so that's part of the context

00:38:13.340 the the biggest trick that the media has ever sold to the public is the following trick and it's a

00:38:21.660 really good one this is the best trick in terms of brainwashing that i've i've ever seen it's just

00:38:29.740 it's monumental and it goes like this that trump is the one responsible for the uh the country being

00:38:37.500 divided now because he's the most um interesting provocative person because he's the president he gets

00:38:48.060 the credit and the blame for lots of things that aren't exactly all his fault so any president who

00:38:54.220 has a good economy gets the credit even if they didn't do anything any president during a bad economy

00:39:00.300 gets blamed even if it wasn't their fault every president during a pandemic presumably is going to get

00:39:07.100 the credit or the blame based on how the the pandemic goes and it might not all be in their control

00:39:12.380 so it's perfectly natural for the president to be imbued with our feelings of causation i don't know

00:39:22.460 if that sentence made any sense i was winging it there but we think he's the cause of things because

00:39:28.940 he is in our minds and he's the president and he's on tv and he says things and then people do things

00:39:35.580 so you think he causes everything he's the cause but that's the trick because the cause of the division

00:39:42.700 in this country has been for a number of years fake news far and away it's the fake news that causes the

00:39:50.860 division there's a mental mental uh experiment that i ask democrats to do which is that imagine the news

00:39:59.740 had been reported just straight news with no fake news how would they report each of the things that

00:40:06.380 you think is a scandal with trump well the charlottesville fine people hoax would never have

00:40:14.300 happened because if they'd reported what he said he said he disavowed the racist there on the same day

00:40:21.180 they said he was praising him just didn't happen it was fake news so suppose that never been reported

00:40:27.740 right that's very different the country would feel very different without that fake news what about

00:40:35.180 the uh the fake news that he he suggested drinking bleach for coronavirus or the fake news about

00:40:42.540 whole countries or the fake news about any of it you know you can just go right down the list

00:40:49.500 russia collusion how about the fake news about russia collusion if you removed all of the fake news

00:40:55.900 news it would just be trump making claims they'd report on his claims they'd report on what the other

00:41:03.100 people said too but they wouldn't be brainwashing you they'd just be telling you what's happening if we

00:41:09.580 lived in the world with real news trump would not be that divisive he'd be a little divisive but it would

00:41:17.100 be on scale of one to ten if ten is where we're at take away the fake news trump would be a three

00:41:26.620 maybe a four tops the fake news causes the division and they have the power not only to cause the division

00:41:35.740 but they have the power to blame somebody else for it it's like your boss right your boss has the power to

00:41:42.860 give you an assignment and then make sure you fail at it by not having the right resources or information

00:41:49.980 or whatever and then your boss can give you a bad performance review for the problem that your boss

00:41:56.620 created and then your boss can fire you for the problem that your boss created a hundred percent of it

00:42:05.500 that's the situation the fake news has put the country in they can create the problem they can assign it

00:42:11.740 to somebody and then they can make them lose the election just like just like a boss uh so that's

00:42:19.740 the world we're in all right so we're going to see today and unless unless there's a trump blowout

00:42:29.340 that's so overwhelming that it can't be denied and i don't think i don't think that's probably going to

00:42:34.380 happen i think it'll be at least a little bit close uh in the total vote if not the electoral college

00:42:40.460 electoral college might be more of a more of a gap but you're going to see the mainstream media and

00:42:47.020 the democrats running a brainwashing uh psychological operation on the country and it goes like this and

00:42:54.940 they're already signaling it pretty clearly biden has already said that he would um he would take the

00:43:01.980 job of president if the fake news declares him the president think about that biden actually said that

00:43:09.580 without the words fake news so biden has said that if the news organizations declare him the winner

00:43:16.300 that he'll give a victory sort of acceptance speech and declare himself the president prior to being

00:43:22.940 sworn in but the president-elect tonight or tomorrow or whenever whenever there's a result now

00:43:31.500 that tells me that the fake news guessed to decide who's president and if you didn't think that was

00:43:42.060 true consider that they sold the consider all the things they've sold they sold to find people hoax

00:43:49.020 half the country bought it they sold russia collusion all kinds of things drinking clorox just just an

00:43:56.860 enormous amount of fake news has been sold to the public and they have proved the concept works they

00:44:04.380 have proven they can disappear the hunter biden laptop story they could just make it go away

00:44:10.700 successfully they made the biggest story in the country just just go away they have that kind of

00:44:17.100 power now the fake news industry if you will so it seems to me that if trump wins they have plenty of

00:44:25.660 cause to say the there was voter suppression wouldn't you say there's no doubt that there will be

00:44:32.220 enough anecdotal bad things happening in local places that both sides will be able to claim the

00:44:38.620 the the election was rigged even if it's not even if all of those things put together didn't add up to

00:44:45.820 anything both sides will have all the fodder they need to claim it was an illegitimate election you all

00:44:51.820 know that right nobody's going to be surprised when the losing side claims the vote was illegitimate we

00:44:59.740 all expect that given that and given that the mainstream media can create a reality that isn't

00:45:08.780 real but people will accept as real they can simply say biden won and half the country will believe it

00:45:15.900 it and then it's just a question of how many people act that way right suppose just take it down to

00:45:25.340 an employee level at the white house you're just an employee and let's say you work i don't know security

00:45:34.380 or maybe you're one of a facilities people well i'll make it really basic i imagine that there's somebody

00:45:41.020 whose job it is it's fair to say is a facilities um director or manager for the white house there's

00:45:49.340 somebody whose job it is that when there's a transition of government that they get the moving

00:45:54.540 trucks and they they move out the old stuff from the you know the people who were in charge and they

00:45:59.900 move in the new people and there's you know they assign who gets what office and all that so there's

00:46:05.100 somebody whose job it is to make sure that the right people have the right stuff in the white house

00:46:12.460 what if that person is a democrat right what if the facilities person looks at the mainstream news

00:46:20.700 and says well you know the mainstream news it says biden is my president so i'm going to order my

00:46:28.380 employees to move the files and personal effects of the last administration out on inauguration day

00:46:37.820 and i'm going to tell my people to move in joe biden's staff what happens then would the security

00:46:47.260 people say wait wait wait you can't do that because i don't think joe biden won what if that happens

00:46:54.540 what if the facilities person is lining up the trucks to move biden into the white house and the

00:47:01.260 security people are saying he didn't win what then right what then you know somebody is saying in the

00:47:10.860 comments that the most guns win but i don't know that it would come to that because it feels more like

00:47:17.020 a bureaucratic problem it feels more like people with no guns standing in the white house saying

00:47:24.060 but i think biden's the president look at cnn they just declared he's the president

00:47:30.700 and then the other one would say but i'm watching fox news and they're not so sure

00:47:35.980 so what do i do i feel like that's what's coming what we don't know is how individual citizens

00:47:44.540 will act if they're told there are two different presidents i don't think here's what i don't think i don't

00:47:51.900 think it'll be a civil war i think it will be frustrating sometimes hilarious very interesting

00:48:02.460 fascinating from beginning to end a study of human behavior and brainwashing and and everything else

00:48:09.660 but it's not going to be a shooting war i'm not going to say that nobody will get hurt in the next week

00:48:17.580 because it's a big country with lots of crazy people but we're not going to have a civil war

00:48:22.620 it's just not going to happen we will have this bureaucratic supreme court fake news mess

00:48:31.660 probably the only way to avoid it is a is a blowout in one direction or the other but it looks like we're

00:48:37.980 heading toward the fake news running what i call coup two coup two involves the biden people simply

00:48:46.380 acting like they won and the news simply supporting them and then seeing if everybody else will just go

00:48:52.860 along and see if they'll act like biden won too so that would be coup two um

00:48:59.100 and that is mostly what i wanted to talk about checking my notes um i think we're good all right

00:49:12.220 do you have any questions that you would like to ask me i'll tell you there are a lot of things that

00:49:18.380 don't matter in this election and the number of things that don't matter is pretty large for example

00:49:26.620 you heard a lot about the candidates making their their quote closing arguments their closing

00:49:33.340 arguments i don't think their closing arguments mattered at all do you know anybody who even

00:49:39.260 knows what their closing arguments were i don't i saw in the comments i've been asked about this thing

00:49:47.180 hammer and scorecard have you heard those words hammer these are projects project hammer project

00:49:56.300 scorecard have you heard of those so uh on steve bannon's show the war room he had general mckearney

00:50:06.700 retired general who claims to have close personal knowledge to a software program that can change

00:50:14.540 votes after they've been made he claims if i have this right that the our our intelligence services

00:50:22.620 created the software to use on other countries to influence their elections and and the claim is

00:50:29.980 that we've used it and that some election unstated don't know which ones were actually influenced

00:50:36.940 by a software program that i guess could be inserted in somebody's database and and move move votes

00:50:44.860 without anybody knowing it the claim is that the democrats have access to this tool

00:50:51.020 and that they will use it to influence the votes after they've been cast so the votes will get

00:50:58.540 into the database the software will get into the database switch some votes and it'll be just enough

00:51:04.300 to win so they won't make it so obvious that you would know it happened to be you know cleverly

00:51:10.540 picking a person here or a person there spreading it around you know so it's not all in one state

00:51:15.500 or something that would be obvious now the source for this is a retired u.s general who has a

00:51:24.780 excellent resume do you believe it do you believe it i'm finding it difficult to believe not impossible

00:51:36.460 because it falls yeah macchinearney macchinearney is the general um it falls in the it falls into the

00:51:44.860 category of things that totally could be real totally could be but i don't know it also has the the sound and

00:51:58.220 feel of something that's not real but it could be could be so i would say that's a wait and see

00:52:05.900 but we'll be waiting and seeing forever because we would never use somebody somebody in comments

00:52:11.500 is saying they used it in canada i don't think there's any proof of any of that

00:52:16.460 um so let us not assume that just because it was on a podcast it's true

00:52:23.900 um i assume let let me give you a complete assumption my complete assumption is this

00:52:32.060 whenever there's a possibility to do something that has an enormous upside potential now you could gain

00:52:37.740 a lot if you did it not not always but you might gain a lot and the risk of getting caught is minuscule

00:52:45.900 it always happens always so if you have that condition and there are enough people involved so

00:52:51.580 you don't have one honest person who doesn't do it but if you have enough people involved

00:52:56.300 it's possible there's a big upside gain and the odds of getting caught are

00:53:02.300 minimal and i would imagine that they wouldn't make a software that could do this unless it could

00:53:07.580 also cover its tracks really really well because if we made a software that was intended to change

00:53:13.100 elections in other countries and why wouldn't we really i mean think about it do you think nobody at least

00:53:19.900 tried to make a software that would change the elections in other countries of course we did

00:53:25.420 of course if our intelligence agencies had never at least tried to do that i would think they were

00:53:31.420 not doing their job you should at least have the option if you know what i mean so i don't think they

00:53:37.100 would build such software if you because it would have to be quite sophisticated and if you could build

00:53:43.580 something that sophisticated couldn't you also cover your tracks couldn't you also pretty easily make it

00:53:51.900 hard to discover so i don't know that we would ever know we'll just know we'll have an election

00:53:58.140 there'll be a president and who knows all right so uh be smart today be brave and when the brainwashing

00:54:09.660 comes and it will it will come because they've signaled that pretty clearly be immune be immune

00:54:16.220 to the uh the brainwashing the slaughter meter is at a hundred percent and by the way i noticed that

00:54:23.340 fox news is running a uh a little area on their website where they have an actual digital meter like a

00:54:31.260 like a gas meter that's uh that will tell you the odds so on any given time they'll estimate the odds

00:54:39.100 of somebody winning and it's basically the slaughter meter except the fox news version of it

00:54:48.220 somebody says how would this software work given vastly different voting systems among the states

00:54:54.140 that is an excellent question as you know all the states um do their own thing but you would only need

00:55:03.500 to be able to you would only need to compromise the key states and then only a few counties in the key

00:55:10.140 states so you might only have to influence let's say three databases three states where the the election

00:55:19.900 information information is consolidated for the state before it's reported you know at a federal level

00:55:26.540 so you figure all the individual reporting machines etc are going to go into one database

00:55:32.700 in each state i assume right that isn't that a fair assumption every state has one database

00:55:38.780 that ultimately all of the different voting machines the the paper ballots and everything will go into

00:55:44.460 right if you have a database in each state and there are only a few states that are critical you

00:55:52.140 just have to compromise maybe three databases and though they would not be the voting machines

00:56:00.860 they would just be the database that has the data from the voting machines so maybe compromise

00:56:07.260 three of them and you could throw the election um that may be simplistic perhaps they have you know ways

00:56:15.500 to check against exactly that but i don't know um

00:56:23.500 all right uh oh senate predictions here's my senate prediction um i think the republicans will do

00:56:31.900 better than the polls suggest i don't know if they'll hold the senate but they'll do better than the

00:56:37.500 polls suggest because i think that lying about what senator you're going to vote for is sort of

00:56:45.420 so adjacent to lying about what presidential candidate you support that i would expect people to be

00:56:51.500 consistent in other words if they lied to a pollster about who they're voting for president

00:56:57.100 i think they would also take that lie to the senate and say oh yeah i'll be voting for that democratic

00:57:04.460 senator sure so if there's a shy trump supporter or a dad joke trump supporter group i would expect not

00:57:14.140 all of it but some percentage of it to be influencing the polls of this the senators so i think the senators

00:57:20.540 will do better republicans uh did i vote i did not i did not uh because i didn't want to vote until it

00:57:30.060 was the last minute because it's funnier all right that's all i got for now and i will talk to you

00:57:37.100 maybe tonight let's see how things go but i i might be joining you tonight and that's all for now

00:57:50.540 um

00:58:09.020 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 03, 2020

Episode 1174 Scott Adams： Election Day in America and What to Expect

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