Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1176 Scott Adams： Even the Looters Don't Know What to do Now. Get in Here.

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody. Come on in. Come on in. I know you're tense. I know you're not delighted in

00:00:23.020 some cases, but come on in anyway, because we got some interesting stuff developing. Oh, very

00:00:30.100 interesting. Very interesting. And before we get going, just to prepare ourselves, what do we need?

00:00:38.240 Yes, we need a cup or mug or a glass, a tank or chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or flask, a vessel

00:00:43.140 of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the dopamine

00:00:50.700 hit of the day. The thing that makes everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. And you

00:00:58.340 need it. You need it bad. And you need it now. Go. I can feel some ballots being disqualified

00:01:10.560 with one sip. That's all it took. All right. So I couldn't stop thinking about last night.

00:01:18.900 Last night, I was thinking about last night. What would it be like to be Joe Biden or Trump?

00:01:27.940 But more importantly, what would it be like to be Joe Biden? And you figure he's probably exhausted,

00:01:34.160 right? And he's got to go to sleep at some point. He probably didn't stay up all night.

00:01:39.500 How would you like to be Joe Biden and know that when you go to sleep last night,

00:01:44.980 in all likelihood, when you wake up, you're either the most important person in the world,

00:01:53.020 the president of the United States, or did YouTube just stop? Somebody is saying YouTube isn't working,

00:02:05.920 but I see the comments going by. So it looks like it's working. Yeah, I've got 2000 people on YouTube.

00:02:12.440 So YouTube's working. So imagine Joe Biden. He doesn't know if he's retired or the president

00:02:18.860 of the United States. What would that do to your head? Because you and I have usually just two choices

00:02:28.200 in life. You know, you apply for a job. And if you don't get it, you're unhappy. But it's not that

00:02:34.780 big a difference between being unemployed and having that specific job versus being the president of the

00:02:41.680 United States or retired. So at the moment, and things are changing quickly. But at the moment,

00:02:51.880 it looks like Joe Biden has a stranglehold on the vote, at least what we'll call phase one of the

00:02:59.700 election. Do you think it's going to be all over when they're done counting the votes? No,

00:03:06.060 no, this is 2020. In 2020, things don't happen the way they happen in other years. So let's just run

00:03:16.560 down all this stuff. So I've declared that this is the first Schrodinger's cat election, meaning that

00:03:24.940 there is a winner. We just don't know who it is. Now, maybe someday we'll be able to, you know,

00:03:32.240 look inside the proverbial box, and we'll know if the cat is alive or the cat is dead.

00:03:38.300 But we can't do it yet. There's not quite enough transparency. There's some small chance,

00:03:44.220 I guess, that Trump could pull Arizona out. And then who knows, if he holds Pennsylvania,

00:03:50.440 anything could happen. But at the moment,

00:03:53.940 the odds are looking like Biden is going to have an electoral tiny, tiny advantage when the votes are

00:04:02.860 counted. We'll see. Now, what did we learn last night? Number one, how were the professional

00:04:11.580 pollsters? Well, I would say Rasmussen was pretty close. Rasmussen, once again, you know, proves that

00:04:20.660 they're, they're one of the more accurate ones. But all the pollsters who said that Biden had this

00:04:25.440 gigantic, you know, double digit advantage, were they lying? Or were they wrong? Or my hypothesis,

00:04:38.880 that there were, it was the world's greatest dad joke. Now, it would be a better dad joke if Trump had

00:04:45.160 won. But I think we can conclude that there was something wrong with those polls. And unless you

00:04:52.020 assume that they were all colluding and lying or incompetent, I suppose, the only other possibility

00:04:59.000 that I can think of that's likely is that Trump supporters were lying like crazy to pollsters.

00:05:06.700 So are we ready to admit that that was real? Or is it too soon? If you had the,

00:05:14.160 now that we know the polls were wildly inaccurate, we didn't know that for sure. But now that we know

00:05:21.760 that for sure, what's the explanation? Incompetence, collusion, meaning they were trying to influence

00:05:30.460 the vote by faking it or, or showing Biden was ahead so he gets more fundraising or something.

00:05:36.440 So some kind of mischief, incompetence, or Trump supporters lying? Which one do you think is the

00:05:45.400 most likely explanation? Like most things, we'll probably never agree. I'm feeling pretty good

00:05:51.580 about my, that prediction. The other prediction I made is that we would, at some point, not permanently,

00:05:59.040 but at some point, I predicted we would have two presidents. Now we're not there. We're not there.

00:06:06.360 I would not call this situation that prediction. But we're not done when the votes are counted. You

00:06:15.160 know that, right? There will be legal challenges and things discovered. And let me ask you this,

00:06:20.280 just for context. Let's say the IRS took a dart. And they just threw it at a bunch of names of

00:06:29.600 companies. And the dart randomly hits the name of one company. And the IRS says, all right,

00:06:35.700 we're going to audit you, top to bottom. We're going to look at everything you've done. What are the odds

00:06:41.940 that randomly throwing a dart? The IRS would find a company that had tax violations? Do you know the

00:06:52.100 answer to that question? Because the answer is pretty close to 100%. Now it doesn't mean these

00:06:58.820 companies are all crooks, but taxes are complicated. Things happen, judgments are made. And if you have a

00:07:06.860 big, rich, target-rich environment with complexity, yeah, I'm seeing in the comments, you're saying

00:07:12.640 100%. Yeah, anybody with experience knows that's the case. Big company, 100% of chance, 100% chance

00:07:21.460 the IRS could find something, something they didn't like. Now, what are the odds that the Trump

00:07:29.440 administration will look at the outcome of this election, and they'll look at all the reports that

00:07:35.740 people are saying of, there was this irregularity, and this irregularity? What are the odds that the

00:07:42.740 Trump campaign will not be able to find something that's real, you know, not just something they made

00:07:48.360 up, but something that has some substance that they can complain about to maybe potentially,

00:07:55.580 possibly overthrow the results of the election? What are the chances that such an opportunity exists?

00:08:02.880 100%. 100%. So if you're saying to yourself, are we done once the votes are counted? I doubt it.

00:08:12.120 The same way, you know, if the IRS wanted you, they're going to find something. And I'm sure the

00:08:18.560 Trump administration can find something to make an argument about. And of course, they do have the

00:08:25.100 Supreme Court on their side, but we don't know if any of it goes to the Supreme Court. Might it end up

00:08:30.660 at the House of Representatives, as our Constitution seems to prefer? That anything could happen.

00:08:39.500 Here's another one. What happens if Joe Biden is deemed mentally incompetent before the Electoral

00:08:49.380 College, what are they, the Electoral College voters vote? What happens then? If they can't cast their

00:08:58.680 vote for the person who won the most votes as far as they know, if they can't do that, because let's

00:09:05.080 say hypothetically, he's just not capable at that point. Or maybe there's some legal problem by that

00:09:10.740 point. You could imagine two scenarios in which something happens. By the way, there's no evidence

00:09:18.360 that I'm aware of, of Biden himself being involved in any crimes. I'm just saying anything could happen.

00:09:24.400 In a big, complicated world, you can accuse anybody of anything. And yeah, what happens then? Does Kamala

00:09:34.560 get the Electoral College votes? How does that work? Does the House get involved? So if you think that

00:09:45.100 we're done, or near done, because you think you know what the end of vote will be, I don't know. It's 2020.

00:09:54.220 Anything could happen. Let me ask you this. What are the odds that China tried to interfere with the

00:10:01.820 election? Right? Now that's separate from the odds that we would catch them. But just what are the odds

00:10:09.780 that they tried? What do you think? What are the odds that they tried? 100%? I don't know. I don't know

00:10:20.280 how to put odds on that. But aren't we trying to interfere in other elections fairly routinely? Don't

00:10:27.180 countries somewhat routinely interfere with other elections? So suppose China was just routinely

00:10:36.000 interfering, perhaps like they have in the past, perhaps like Russia is doing, you know, perhaps 0.63

00:10:42.700 as other countries are doing. Who knows? And suppose we find something. What then? Because it would be so

00:10:50.800 obvious that China prefers Biden. What happens if we find even a little bit of China influence on the

00:10:59.300 election? What then? There's a lot of wild cards here, aren't there? If you're a Biden supporter, even if

00:11:07.540 you get the win, I don't know if you can be completely, completely comfortable. Because who knows what's

00:11:15.340 going to happen. So President Trump decided to declare that in his opinion, frankly, he did win the

00:11:26.360 election. That's when he was ahead in the vote count, and wanted wanted future votes, I guess, not to be

00:11:33.260 counted or something. But Biden had said, a little bit more reserved, he said he believed he was going

00:11:41.440 to win. Now those are different. Saying you believe you're going to win is just always fair. That's always

00:11:48.580 fair for a politician to say, right? So nobody gets in trouble for saying, I believe I will win.

00:11:54.320 But if you say, I did win, and they're still counting votes, that's kind of a stretch. But did it give

00:12:03.460 Trump a strategic advantage in claiming that he had won? Maybe. Maybe it would get his base on his

00:12:12.000 side if he wants to fight it on some technicality. So it might give him some advantage. What kind of

00:12:19.660 irregularities are we seeing? So this is the point in the process, where you shouldn't believe

00:12:27.740 anything you see? Yeah, that the fake news that you're going to see in the next few days will be

00:12:32.860 probably record setting. And so one of the things we're seeing is that there was something that

00:12:38.820 happened in Michigan, where a whole bunch of votes were added to Biden sort of suddenly toward the end.

00:12:45.120 Now, I don't know the details of that. And I would not assume that it means something

00:12:51.520 untoward happened. Or that anything happened. Because we're so early in the fog of war that I

00:12:58.820 don't even know if it's true that a bunch of votes got added for Biden at the end. Who knows if even

00:13:04.540 the basic facts are true at this point. But that's, you know, one question. There's another question

00:13:10.160 about Arizona voters who were Trump supporters getting Sharpies to use on their ballots, and that

00:13:17.540 would invalidate them somehow. I don't know if there's anything to that. Who knows? Does the

00:13:23.320 Sharpie invalidate your ballot? I don't know. Of course, there will be multiple reports of fake

00:13:30.540 ballots and ballot harvesting. Ballot harvesting is legal depending on the state. So there's going to be

00:13:38.140 all kinds of stuff to look into. But let me ask you this. Let's say it came down to Michigan.

00:13:44.580 Let's say the vote came down to whoever won Michigan would be president. And let's say Michigan

00:13:51.700 came down to Detroit. It could, right? Or the Detroit County or something. Suppose it came down to

00:14:00.620 really just one metropolitan area. Do you think the Trump administration could find real evidence

00:14:08.240 that that one metropolitan area, no matter what it is, had some bad ballots and irregularities?

00:14:16.680 Probably, right? Because again, everything big and complicated has a little bit of corruption or a

00:14:24.620 little bit of mistake or a little bit of incompetence. So if you just said randomly throw your dart at the

00:14:31.600 map of the United States, hit a city, and then really do a deep dive on that city, are you going to find

00:14:38.360 any problems? Probably, right? It's a big world. There's lots of opportunities for that stuff.

00:14:46.120 So 59% of my followers on an unscientific Twitter poll say they think the election has been unfair.

00:15:03.620 59%. Now it's unscientific and most of my followers are Trump supporters. So you'd expect that they would

00:15:09.960 be Trump supporting in their answering of the poll. But that's a lot of people, even unscientific.

00:15:18.460 So what would happen if Trump supporters think that the election was not fair?

00:15:25.640 If it goes through the right process, they will accept it. In other words, if, I don't know, if the

00:15:33.260 House is involved or somebody checks the votes and checks for the irregularities or the Supreme Court

00:15:39.520 makes the decision, if there's something that looks like a constitutional process, I think Trump

00:15:46.640 supporters are going to grudgingly accept the result, even while doubting that it was legitimate,

00:15:54.680 as long as the process looks like it was followed. So I don't think there's going to be civil war in

00:16:01.120 that specific sense. Now, the weirdest thing about where we are right now is that even the looters don't

00:16:10.580 know what to do. You know, I tweeted that. It's a joke, but not really a joke. Because what are all the

00:16:18.040 protesters and the people who have assembled in the streets? What do they do if Biden wins?

00:16:23.860 Do you know? I don't really know. I don't know. Do they go home if Biden wins? Because that's one

00:16:33.180 possibility. They'll just go home. But if Biden wins, don't you still have a problem with Black Lives

00:16:40.120 Matter and police brutality, according to them? There shouldn't be any difference, right? Because the

00:16:48.840 issues that BLM and Antifa had don't really change if you change the president. I don't think so. So are we going

00:16:58.000 to watch Antifa become the ally of Republicans? Because you know the enemy of my enemy situation? Antifa is going

00:17:10.260 to turn on Biden. Right? Because Antifa is not Democrats. They're Antifa. They don't have a party

00:17:20.580 per se. So they should turn on Biden pretty quickly. You expect the squad to turn on Biden. They've already

00:17:28.440 done that. So they're going to start demanding stuff. Now, here's my question to you. Let's say the Senate

00:17:35.460 holds Republican. It looks like it will barely, right? Maybe by one vote or something like that.

00:17:44.260 Maybe it's just Pence who's the tiebreaker or one vote plus Pence, something like that. Is that enough

00:17:51.080 to stop Biden or let's say stop the squad from going full socialist? Would a Republican Senate be

00:18:01.320 enough to stop that stuff from happening if you only have a one vote advantage? I don't know if that's

00:18:07.340 enough, but it might be. It could be that the thing that would surprise me the least, and indeed I've

00:18:14.920 predicted this in the past, is that a regular Democrat president would have to govern like Trump did

00:18:25.380 policy-wise. So my assumption is that Trump proved enough things to work. In other words, he tried

00:18:35.000 different things and they worked, such that whoever is president next kind of has to do that

00:18:40.900 because it worked. For example, do you think that a President Biden would just stop all work on border

00:18:50.540 security? Probably not, right? Because it's not really good for Biden if things get out of control

00:19:00.020 at the border. That means that Democrats lose the next election. So even Democrats can't really open

00:19:07.080 the border because they would never get elected again. So what about, say, North Korea? Is Biden going

00:19:15.640 to get tough with Kim Jong-un? Probably not. He'll probably take something close to a Trump approach,

00:19:23.620 which is, well, we won't threaten you if you don't threaten us. Something like that. Do you think that

00:19:29.920 a Biden would just stop negotiating a trade deal with China? So if he says, in all caps,

00:19:39.860 Trump tweeted, it must be a good one. So let's go look at that.

00:19:47.560 Let's see what Trump is tweeting, if it's so good that you just had to tell me.

00:19:56.040 All right.

00:20:00.780 So he says, three minutes ago, Trump says,

00:20:03.680 how come every time they count mail-in ballot dumps, they are so devastating in their percentage

00:20:08.840 and power of destruction? That's sort of a generic thing to say.

00:20:14.640 Sixteen minutes ago, he said, last night I was leading, often solidly, in many key states. In almost

00:20:20.080 all instances, Democrat-run and controlled. Then, one by one, they started to magically disappear

00:20:28.580 as surprise ballot dumps were counted. Very strange. And the, quote, pollsters got it completely

00:20:36.080 and historically wrong. So it looks like he's setting it up for the, uh, the mail-in ballots

00:20:42.900 to be the, the fraudulent thing that cost him the election.

00:20:48.420 What do you think? Do you think that's real? Is your opinion, if, if you were not just being a team

00:20:58.460 player, if you were not just, you know, backing your candidate, if you stepped away and said to

00:21:04.420 yourself, okay, if I'm being objective, I'm a space alien, I'm just looking at this situation,

00:21:10.060 do you think that the election was stolen by mail-in ballots? What do you think? Now, I do believe

00:21:20.500 that fraud is somewhat universal, meaning that probably, you know, every state, every county

00:21:26.400 had a little bit of irregularity, and they're probably, it's like that every time. But do you

00:21:31.680 think the mail-in ballots really were, like, legitimately, they had a bunch of them waiting,

00:21:38.100 and they just waited to see what their vote was, and then they said, all right, we don't need all

00:21:43.360 of them, but let's use half of the one, the fake ones we had, and dump them out there. Do you think

00:21:48.360 that happened? Because it would only have to happen in, like I said, maybe you only needed to do it in

00:21:55.880 Detroit, or, you know, one or two places. So you wouldn't have to do it everywhere all over,

00:22:01.480 you would just need a few places. That's it. So looking at your comments, I'm seeing some yeses,

00:22:10.640 some noes, etc. Now, I think the real issue is going to come down to how many of them

00:22:20.520 can be rejected, because there's some signature problem or something else.

00:22:26.380 And I don't know how you ever solve that. So it looks like Trump supporters believe that there

00:22:35.920 was major fraud involved. It looks like the president is very persuasive, or he's, or who

00:22:43.280 he's following. I don't know if he's leading or following in this case, but he does seem to match

00:22:48.060 his base. That the majority think that something illegal or fraudulent happened.

00:22:57.140 I don't know how to handicap that. Somebody says, do you still think Trump will win? Well, my most

00:23:04.500 recent prediction is that at least for a time, we would have two presidents. And the CNN would say,

00:23:12.520 we have a President Biden, and Fox News would say, they're not saying that now, but that they will,

00:23:19.140 at some point, say, we have a President Trump re-election. And that would happen if Trump managed

00:23:29.000 to wage a, let's say, a legal attack against the result, it had some teeth. So if Trump comes up with

00:23:39.000 some kind of a fraudulent accusation, or accusation of fraud, and there's actually some evidence,

00:23:48.840 you never know. But if the vote goes the way it's just being counted straight up, it looks like

00:23:54.100 Biden would win at the moment. It looks like that. I'm just saying what the news is telling you.

00:24:00.780 So here's a question. If you thought that, let's say you had a theory that Israel secretly controls

00:24:09.940 all the big decisions in this country, did you believe that? Did you think that Israel was really

00:24:16.120 running the show? Because Israel wanted Trump to win. So if Israel was behind any mischief, 0.50

00:24:24.840 either they didn't do anything, or they did something that wasn't as big as the mischief from

00:24:32.580 the other side. So can you rule out that Israel has that much power over the political process of 0.86

00:24:40.320 this country? I feel like if this holds, it'd be a pretty good example of how they didn't get what

00:24:47.240 they wanted. What would Biden do with all these peace deals that are happening in the Middle East?

00:24:52.760 Would he reverse them and go pro-Iran? Probably not. It's sort of too late for that, isn't it?

00:25:03.020 So the one thing you should wonder about is if Biden could do any of the things that he says he wants,

00:25:09.920 or would he be forced by circumstance to simply do something very close to what Trump was doing,

00:25:17.540 but put a new name on it and try to pretend it's different?

00:25:22.760 Somebody says, does Israel really want Trump to win? I think, yeah, I think you could say that with

00:25:28.400 some confidence. Yes. Arizona has 2% left to count, so that wouldn't get it done.

00:25:37.380 So we have to assume that that goes to Biden. So let's say Biden gets inaugurated and he becomes

00:25:47.580 president. What will we say was the reason? Some of you will say fraud, and you'll say that forever.

00:25:57.660 I think you also have to look at the social media companies, because at this point, I don't know

00:26:03.840 if humans can overcome the algorithms. You know, I call the algorithms artificial intelligence.

00:26:13.180 And I had said that whether Trump wins or loses, that he'll be the last human president, meaning that AI, 0.61

00:26:24.220 if AI and the algorithms are what caused Biden to win, and of course they did. Of course they did,

00:26:31.080 right? Because the stories that get promoted are the ones that influence. So the algorithms probably

00:26:38.240 picked the president. So one filter you could look at this is that the human activity was somewhat

00:26:45.040 irrelevant because AI caused us to do what we did. So it was really in charge. That's one way to look

00:26:52.760 at it. The other way is that the Democrats just did a good job on everything. They did a good job

00:27:01.680 getting in more, you know, more people who would vote their way into the country, did a better job

00:27:08.180 of campaigning, controlled the media better. That's another way to look at it. Some people say the AI is

00:27:16.220 made by humans, Scott. There is where you are completely misled. So yes, it is true that the AI is

00:27:24.620 designed by humans. But do you believe that any humans know what the AI will do? Nope, they don't.

00:27:34.080 Now they do have the power to force the AI or the algorithm to do a certain thing. They have the power,

00:27:41.240 but do you think that's how they designed it? Do you think they designed it so they know exactly what

00:27:46.140 it's going to do? I don't. I think it has so many variables that nobody who is human knows exactly

00:27:53.640 what the algorithm is going to do. They know what they programmed, but they don't know what it's

00:27:58.400 going to do. And under that condition, would you say that the human is in charge if they don't know

00:28:03.880 what their creation is going to do? Suppose you built a Frankenstein monster. You're in charge of

00:28:11.180 the monster, right? So then do you control the monster after it leaves your laboratory and starts

00:28:16.560 destroying the town? Could you say, hey, Dr. Frankenstein, stop your monster. I mean, you're the human.

00:28:24.020 You made it, so you're in control, right? Doesn't work that way. Once the Frankenstein leaves the

00:28:30.360 laboratory, which is what the algorithms are, they're Frankenstein outside the laboratory, the coder or Dr.

00:28:38.200 Frankenstein can't control it anymore. So when you say humans make the AI, true, but a human makes

00:28:47.300 Dr. Frankenstein's human and he made the Frankenstein monster, but he doesn't control it after it leaves

00:28:54.180 the laboratory. All right. Can't there be overfitting? Somebody says the media stole the election. I

00:29:11.000 would say that's true. If you were to look at Biden voters and ask them, you know, what do they think is

00:29:17.640 true? They would just say hoax after hoax after hoax. So Biden is elected on a hoax, basically.

00:29:25.660 And I would say that, you know, people ask me, Scott, why did you try so hard to debunk the

00:29:31.300 fine people hoax? And the answer was that it's the tentpole hoax. All the other hoaxes depend on you

00:29:39.180 thinking that one really happened. Because if you think, well, that one's proven, if you think it

00:29:44.740 happened, it didn't. But if you think it did, then you start thinking, well, the other unproven ones,

00:29:49.860 probably true, because this one was proven. So that kind of makes me think the other ones are true.

00:29:57.980 And I think Biden, with the help of the media, sold it as true enough that I'm sure it changed the

00:30:04.700 result. I mean, there was a reason that he led with it all the time in his campaign. I would imagine

00:30:10.140 that they do research on that stuff, right? Don't you think that Biden's campaign stump speech

00:30:17.080 was a whole bunch of poll tested points? So they knew that the Charlottesville thing

00:30:23.700 had an impact? I don't think he would have led with it consistently, if they hadn't tested it to know

00:30:30.740 that it made a difference. So probably the fine people hoax made him president. I mean,

00:30:36.740 that's an irrational thing to say. Because in these situations that are complicated, and there

00:30:45.600 are so many variables, if you change any of them, you get a different result. So you could say it was

00:30:51.980 foreign interference, because that was 1% of the difference. You could say it was the fine people

00:30:58.220 hoax, because that was 1% of the difference. And you know, it was only a 1% kind of vote. So you could

00:31:06.040 always say that there was something that was the difference. But really, everything had to be the

00:31:10.620 way it is, or you wouldn't get this result. All right. Somebody says, Biden's not elected yet.

00:31:18.560 Yeah, I suppose in the category of anything could happen.

00:31:25.400 Yeah, the fine people hoax is still a lie. That's true. You know, so here's the real question.

00:31:30.860 Will Biden getting elected? Will it cause less violence in the streets? What do you think?

00:31:40.160 Do you think that the riots will just stop? And I'm wondering if this isn't the very best

00:31:48.180 situation for Republicans, and they don't realize it. Because the rioters really needed

00:31:57.400 a solid Trump victory in order to be activated. But what if they just think, well, I don't know

00:32:05.740 what's happening yet. I feel like looting, but the trigger wasn't there. So do I take the day off?

00:32:15.660 I don't know what to do. And quite literally, I don't think they know what to do.

00:32:20.480 So somebody says that Biden president means more violence in the streets. Well, do you think that

00:32:29.360 Democratic mayors could get tougher with the protesters if they had a Democratic president?

00:32:37.940 Maybe. Maybe it's a Nixon goes to China situation, and suddenly all the Democratic mayors could get

00:32:44.840 tough. Because, hey, they're not trying to show that Trump is orange man bad. We shall see.

00:32:53.580 So I'm seeing some people say the riots will stop immediately. If they do, you really got to wonder

00:33:00.660 about stuff. Yeah, I don't see any energy whatsoever for Republicans to take over. Now, what do you think

00:33:13.000 about Trump leaving office if, let's say, he goes through his legal challenges and they don't work?

00:33:21.260 Or he uses the system as well as he can, but he can't get a different result? Do you think there's

00:33:27.240 any chance that Trump would try to stay in office if he had exhausted his appeals? I don't think so.

00:33:35.120 I think the odds of that are zero. Not even 1%. I think it's zero. But what if it's Inauguration Day

00:33:45.800 and there's still an open question of massive fraud? What then? What then, indeed?

00:33:53.660 Well, I think that with the help of the media, the media can simply sell a Biden victory, no matter how

00:34:03.900 much fraud was involved, and enough of the public will accept it. So that looks like the direction

00:34:11.860 we're going. Now, because it's 2020, you cannot rule out another surprise. And the other surprise

00:34:20.900 would be some easy to prove fraud. So what do you think are the odds that the Trump administration

00:34:32.560 will be able to point to something specific? You know, not just a general, hey, I don't like these

00:34:38.660 mail-in ballots, but something like that has a video or a witness or something you could just look at

00:34:45.180 and you know it's fraud. What are the odds that something like that will emerge in the next, I don't know,

00:34:51.980 48 hours or a week or whatever? Pretty high, right? Pretty high. Because when you need a fraud,

00:35:02.640 you can always find one. I feel like it doesn't take much work to find a fraud in any of these situations.

00:35:09.400 Yeah, according to the Constitution, somebody's saying Pelosi is third in line. So even Pelosi

00:35:18.420 could get into the work here. All right. Let's see. And Pelosi actually lost Democrats in the House.

00:35:30.700 So if you're looking at how bad the polling was, look at how bad, well, I mean, they got everything

00:35:40.960 wrong, right? So the polls thought that the House would pick up Democrats. It didn't. It thought that

00:35:46.440 the Senate would flip. It didn't. And certainly thought that the presidential election would be,

00:35:55.120 you know, an overwhelming Biden victory, but it wasn't. So the polls were quite, quite off and

00:36:03.560 everything that mattered. So in a little side story, Oregon became the first state to decriminalize

00:36:13.960 hard drugs. It's like a little side story that is sort of big. So they decriminalized heroin, cocaine,

00:36:22.340 and meth. Wow. And by a pretty solid vote, people really wanted that. And I guess they're replacing

00:36:31.720 that with some kind of humane, cost-effective health approach. I am very much in favor of this.

00:36:38.880 It would have been a mistake for the entire country to do this all at the same time. But remember what I

00:36:46.160 tell you about anything that you can test locally or small, you should. If you think it might work,

00:36:54.500 give it a test. But test is small, so you don't ruin the whole country. So now Oregon

00:36:59.240 is going to give us some data that will be really useful. And I would say that addiction is maybe the

00:37:08.300 biggest problem in the country right now. So if they can get any kind of progress on that, that would be a big deal.

00:37:16.160 By the way, if Trump did lose and does lose, it's going to be because of health care and coronavirus,

00:37:25.640 don't you think? I mean, those will kind of be the reasons.

00:37:33.880 Here is a... Oh, so here's a phrase that you might hear. This is from Ross Garber on Twitter,

00:37:44.220 who's got some credentials, and he says, unless the vote is close enough,

00:37:50.460 there's no chance for the lawyers to kick a legal field goal.

00:37:55.740 Unless it's close enough? All right. So far, too many uncounted ballots in too many key places.

00:38:01.040 Keep an eye on what he calls the margin of litigation.

00:38:03.980 All right. So I think maybe he said something wrong in his tweet. But what I take as his meaning

00:38:09.780 is that if the distance, if the final count between Biden and Trump is small, it might be a small enough

00:38:19.680 distance that a successful litigation of something specific, say one state or one metropolitan area,

00:38:27.100 might be enough to overturn it. But if the Biden gap is bigger, then even if you have a successful

00:38:36.380 litigation of some sort, you might not change anything enough to close that gap. So you might

00:38:42.400 hear this phrase, the margin of litigation. Is he close enough that a legal challenge could make a

00:38:48.920 difference? Don't you think you would find some pleasure if you're a Trump supporter, and it turns

00:38:58.360 out Biden is the winner? Would you find some pleasure in watching the squad tear him apart? Because he's

00:39:07.120 going to get, I mean, he'll just, he'll be ripped down to the bone, I think, by the progressives. So

00:39:13.400 watching that will sort of be fun. And it looks like if Biden is president, all of the Russia collusion

00:39:22.620 coup people will go free, will stay free, I guess. So it looks like crime pays so far. So far, I would

00:39:32.440 say we have strong evidence that crime pays. And that the coup attempt with the Russia collusion hoax

00:39:40.440 looks like nobody's going to get punished for that. Looks like that was just a free slap. And, and it will

00:39:48.460 actually be part of what causes Biden to win. So I would say that that just sort of worked. It just didn't work

00:39:55.480 the year that they want it to work. But it had a spillover effect into this election, for sure. Somebody says

00:40:04.020 Trump tweets are being filtered by Twitter again. Well, anything where he claims victory is going to

00:40:12.220 get filtered. Will Trump's crimes pay? Well, I don't know of any Trump crimes. All right.

00:40:22.820 Um, the, the hardest part about this will be all of the gloating Democrats. So I might have to take a

00:40:33.220 social media holiday just, just until they get less excited. Um, somebody is telling me to look at

00:40:40.860 Trump's newest tweets. I don't know if those are the ones I just looked at, but let's see.

00:40:44.740 Um, oh, there's one that's being, uh, filtered. Oh, so Matt Walsh has tweeted something that, uh,

00:40:56.880 Twitter is very, is trying very hard for me not to see. So I'm at my second level of warning here.

00:41:04.460 And, uh, so Matt Walsh says, this is reason enough to go to court. No honest person can look at this

00:41:11.280 and say it's normal and unconcerning. And the way he's talking about is this, uh, idea that Michigan

00:41:17.460 went up 128,000 votes for Biden with no extra votes for Trump at the same time. So I believe that's the

00:41:26.080 claim that the key state of Michigan had an unexpected surge in votes and, uh, conservatives are

00:41:35.700 pointing it out. Um, and Trump is saying, what is this all about in caps? Now, remember I told you

00:41:44.060 that the odds of finding something irregular is kind of a hundred percent. Now suppose, suppose this is

00:41:53.440 fraud. Now I think the greater odds are always that it's not right. If you were going to bet on it,

00:42:00.700 it'd probably bet that it's not, but you certainly have to ask the question. Why does it look like

00:42:07.700 that? I think if you dig down, you'll find out that there's more, more to it. And maybe it's not what

00:42:12.720 it looks like, but it could be, it could be. I'm not saying it's not fraud. It certainly has all of

00:42:20.720 the telltale sides of fraud. If you were going to do fraud, it would look sort of like this. So the

00:42:28.160 question has to be, uh, asked and answered, but that doesn't mean it's what you think it is. Um,

00:42:34.040 and then what else has he got here? Let's see. Yeah. And then, then the president retweeted

00:42:42.500 someone else talking about this 128,000 votes in Michigan. You know, one way this could go quite

00:42:51.780 easily. What if he challenges just that and it's enough? So, so already, uh, already you can see the

00:43:03.400 wisdom of, uh, Ross Garber's comment about the margin of litigation. So somebody tell me, cause I

00:43:12.540 don't know if Trump challenged just that 128,000 votes that look sort of suspicious because a hundred

00:43:20.400 percent of them went to Biden. If he challenged just that and he succeeded, would it change the

00:43:27.220 result? Is he within the margin of litigation as Ross Garber says? I don't know. I don't know if

00:43:36.780 this could be more interesting or more frustrating if, if you tried, how in the world did this simple

00:43:44.680 process that has worked for hundreds of years become this complicated? Um,

00:43:51.900 and could you ever be convinced that it wasn't fraud if it turns out that the basic facts being

00:44:01.520 alleged are true? Let's say it's true that 128,000 votes appeared suddenly and a hundred percent of them

00:44:09.440 were Biden. And that's the story. If that was the final story and we never got any deeper explanation,

00:44:16.700 would you accept this election as valid? I don't know. To me, it would depend a little bit about

00:44:23.660 whether that one change would, would change the result. If it would, well, if it would, you got some

00:44:31.520 real questions there. Somebody says, please don't have a defeatist attitude about this. Well, it's not

00:44:39.060 defeatist. Uh, I would say that the odds of a, um, of a challenge that's got some meat to it is pretty

00:44:48.260 good. I don't know if that wins the day, but there's a pretty good chance that the president has a, um,

00:44:58.280 has a case. And if he could find a way to get that case to the Supreme Court, does he have an advantage

00:45:06.140 because of his conservative judges? Maybe?

00:45:15.340 Somebody says kudos on, uh, on, uh, keeping going today. Well, let me ask you people, how do you feel?

00:45:25.900 How do you feel today? Now, of course you feel uncertainty and stomach aches and all that,

00:45:31.120 but is your life ruined? Will your food taste differently today? Will you, will your job

00:45:39.520 change? For most of you, uh, you're not going to be able to tell the difference, frankly. For some of

00:45:46.320 us, it will be a life-changing event. If Biden gets in and gets his tax plan, for example, people like

00:45:53.360 me have to make some real decisions about literally leaving the country because the tax rate that, uh,

00:45:59.420 Biden, uh, has proposed, uh, is confiscatory. If I think that's a word, right? Confiscatory.

00:46:09.200 Meaning that I made my money under a certain set of rules. In other words, capitalism and the

00:46:15.720 government said, here are your rules. If you follow these rules and make some money, you get to keep it.

00:46:21.560 That's what I thought were the rules. If I follow all of your constitutional rules and your laws

00:46:28.840 and I make a bunch of money and I live in the United States, I get to keep it. I thought that

00:46:35.940 was the deal. Now, if I had been told from the beginning, you know, you can make as much money as

00:46:41.860 you want, but you're going to have to give, um, 65% of it to the government. And by the way,

00:46:47.880 that's low, the 65% of it is just your regular taxes. If you're in a high tax zone, I would also

00:46:56.120 be paying property tax. I'd also be paying sales tax. So my effective tax rate, if you take all of

00:47:03.140 my taxes under Biden might be 75%. I might get to keep 25% of every dollar I earn. That's enough to

00:47:13.220 make you look at another country. Uh, but it isn't that easy to just move to another country and

00:47:19.000 avoid taxes. You got to give up your citizenship and it's not easy. So it's, it's no, it's no easy

00:47:26.640 deal just to move somewhere else. It's, it's not something you can do. Plus you want to live in the

00:47:32.020 country with the biggest military. You know, you, you don't want to live in the little island that can

00:47:36.840 be conquered by just about anybody who wants to. I don't want to live on a little island that can

00:47:42.820 be destroyed by a hurricane either. So it's hard to move out of the United States. It's a little bit

00:47:48.880 of a network effect, if you know what I mean. Somebody says they won't let you go.

00:47:57.540 Um, oh, somebody says the market is up. Is it? Let's see. So markets like certainty.

00:48:05.660 So Amazon is way up. Oh, that's interesting. Um, Bitcoin has been having a run, so that's staying

00:48:15.440 solid. Uh, the, the broader market is up solidly. Apple's way up. Israel's up. The, I've got a,

00:48:25.300 a fund of stocks in Israel and that's way up. Um, interesting. What the hell?

00:48:34.000 Okay. Um, I'm just looking at a comment. Uh, did you notice they changed the way we voted

00:48:45.780 at the last minute? Uh, just looking at your comments. Somebody says it's stupid to leave,

00:49:01.400 stay and fight. Yeah. I don't think taxes will go the direction of the, um, Biden tax plan. I think

00:49:10.600 that if there's a Republican Senate and the Democrats want to stay in power for a while,

00:49:16.320 that they probably can't do that. The one is tanking again. Interesting. What, what is the

00:49:24.720 betting market? The betting market has gone Biden, right? The betting market has gone completely

00:49:29.220 Biden. So, uh, somebody asked me about simulation theory. So let me, let me put this in a frame you've

00:49:37.660 heard before. If this is a simulation, and as I've said, there's a tendency for life to follow the path

00:49:47.820 of the best movie. What would be the best movie? Think about it. If this were a movie and everything

00:49:57.200 that had happened up to this point is what happened in the movie, what would be the movie ending?

00:50:02.620 Do you know what it would be? The movie ending would be finding out that those Michigan votes were

00:50:11.320 fraudulent and that, uh, and this is the third act because the point of the third act is that you're

00:50:19.380 supposed to feel as if it's over. Like you're actually supposed to think, okay, seriously, no joking

00:50:26.180 aside. It's done now. It's a little bit how you might've felt the day the, uh, access Hollywood

00:50:33.420 tape came out right before the 2016 election. When I heard that, my feeling was the first time I heard

00:50:42.280 it, I came out of it. But the first time I heard that I said, that's it. There isn't any way anybody

00:50:49.420 in the world can recover from this access Hollywood tape. Now it took me a few days to realize that

00:50:55.900 wasn't the case and came back to predicting Trump would win. But that was the third act, in my

00:51:02.800 opinion. That was the point where even the biggest believer, the biggest optimist capitulates and says,

00:51:10.920 all right, all right, there's just no hope. There's no hope left. And then the hero pulls out a victory

00:51:20.180 in a way that was completely unexpected. And the obvious way that would happen would be to find out

00:51:27.760 that there was some fraud that changed the election and find out in time to reverse the outcome. So this

00:51:35.580 will be a good test of the simulation slash movie hypothesis. The movie simulation theory

00:51:44.300 suggests that Trump will reverse, uh, reverse some of the votes. Now, if I said to you, there's a,

00:51:53.100 there's a presidential candidate and he's going to challenge the votes and he's going to have them

00:51:58.180 reversed and it will be enough of them that it changes the election. What would you say in general?

00:52:03.880 In general, you'd say, I don't think so. I don't know of any president who's ever done that,

00:52:09.640 but it's Trump. Trump consistently does things you didn't think were possible.

00:52:18.120 I don't have to do the list. You've seen the list, but you know, he's, he's, he's finding peace in the

00:52:23.400 Middle East. He consistently does the thing you think, I don't think anybody could do. Oh, he just did it. 1.00

00:52:29.560 So if you say to me, the only way he could win is to do this highly unlikely play of getting a bunch

00:52:38.040 of votes tossed out. Very unlikely that anybody could succeed at that. But it's 2020 and it's Trump.

00:52:48.340 He could. I'm not, I'm not going to predict it. I'm going to say that if the movie filter holds,

00:52:56.700 this was the third act. And I have to say that there was nothing that happened before this

00:53:03.260 that felt completely third acty. The other things that have happened before this seem big,

00:53:09.960 but they didn't quite seem like a crushing final blow. Today's vote count feels like a crushing final

00:53:18.720 blow, doesn't it? So that's either real or it's a third act. We'll find out.

00:53:25.540 Somebody says Trump should pardon Hunter. I don't know what good that is.

00:53:39.080 Somebody says they prefer the low budget movie where Nevada turns red in a few hours somehow.

00:53:44.180 Yeah, maybe. So the slaughter meter, at least in terms of the vote, I would say is pretty close

00:53:56.680 to zero. So in terms of winning it on the first count, I would say the odds of Trump winning it

00:54:03.400 just because the votes came in his way is pretty close to zero at this point. The odds of prevailing

00:54:10.560 in the long run still exist, meaning that when he digs into this Michigan vote count, there might be

00:54:20.340 something there. I'd bet against it. There might be something there. So we'll find out. All right.

00:54:29.500 This is what we know so far. It's so 2020 that it couldn't be more 2020.

00:54:40.560 So we'll find out what's what. And we'll find out if there's any room for this to change. And I will talk to you soon.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 04, 2020

Episode 1176 Scott Adams： Even the Looters Don't Know What to do Now. Get in Here.

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