Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1178 Scott Adams： Election Hallucinations and Absurdities Everywhere. Let's Discuss Over Coffee.

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in. It's time. It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams. One of my window

00:00:12.200 shades didn't go down, so I'm a little over lit today. I like to be lit, but not over lit.

00:00:19.240 That's too much. All right. Now, some of you may be a little bit stressed out today,

00:00:28.040 not too happy if your candidate is not doing what you wanted, but you're going to feel better after

00:00:33.740 the simultaneous sip, and all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein,

00:00:38.540 a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee,

00:00:47.060 and join me now for the dopamine hit of the day. The thing that makes everything better,

00:00:53.000 it's called the simultaneous sip, and it will even remove fraud from the election. Just watch. Go.

00:01:07.300 So, let's talk about all the things that are happening.

00:01:12.000 One of your comments is off color, but funny, so I'm not going to mention it.

00:01:20.840 So, I'm experiencing a phenomenon today. I don't know if any of you are, but because I'm a public

00:01:27.580 personality, I get the special treatment. And what I'm getting is, I would label them pre-mockers. 0.62

00:01:35.740 Those of you who are asking about YouTube, YouTube is up and running. I'm looking at it right now. The

00:01:42.360 comments are coming in. So, if you can't see it on your end, there's something weird going on.

00:01:48.240 But I'm getting what I'll call pre-mockers. And what pre-mockers are, are there are people who are

00:01:55.460 mocking me, but not for things I've done. They're mocking me for their hallucination of what I'll do

00:02:04.020 next. I don't know if I've ever seen that before. Maybe I have. But there's a whole cottage industry

00:02:13.120 of blue-check people who just want to be mean, I guess. And they're coming into my timeline saying 0.99

00:02:19.360 things such as, well, let me predict what Scott will do. He will claim that the president was

00:02:25.980 captured by aliens. And I'm thinking, no, I probably won't do anything like that.

00:02:32.960 Scott, why are you pre-mocking me for something you're imagining I'll do in the future that I

00:02:38.460 clearly would not do? Wait till I do something. Mock me for what I do. Somebody says, Scott 2024.

00:02:51.260 You know, I'm fairly sure that I could win an election, but I don't know that I would want the

00:02:58.380 job. I mean, I really wouldn't. I have, weirdly, I have the kind of skill set that could win an

00:03:07.080 election. But I definitely wouldn't want to. I mean, I don't like meetings. That's my problem.

00:03:14.640 All right. Some other news. There's a huge jobs report beating expectations and driving the

00:03:21.380 jobless rate down to 6.9. 6.9 is around Obama level, wasn't it? When Obama took over, it was much

00:03:31.200 better when he left. But we've actually beaten the jobless rate down to the borderline of normal.

00:03:42.820 I mean, 6.9 is way too high. But it's sort of in that range where it's been, even if the world wasn't

00:03:48.820 coming apart. So we're not quite. We're getting close to it. So that's great news. You know, I often

00:03:56.580 say that luck is, you know, 80% of success. And whoever becomes president, be it Biden or be it

00:04:06.460 Trump for a second term, you know, he still has a non-zero chance that that could happen.

00:04:11.360 Whoever is our next president, look what they're going to inherit. Think about it. The next president

00:04:20.100 is going to have a world at peace. The United States won't be at war with anybody, which is

00:04:27.300 unfortunately kind of rare for this country. So we won't be at war. Probably the Middle East will 1.00

00:04:34.860 continue its trend toward, you know, just more peace. North Korea probably will just stay the 0.86

00:04:42.520 way it is. Doesn't seem to be bothering us at the moment. And so the world itself is just sort of

00:04:50.020 peaceful. So whoever is president of that has got a natural advantage. It's one less problem.

00:04:56.580 Whoever is president in 2021 will be president when coronavirus gets beaten back. Probably.

00:05:02.200 Right. I think second half of 2021 is when we'll start to say, well, it looks like we beat this

00:05:09.280 coronavirus one way or the other. So whoever's president is going to get the credit, right?

00:05:15.020 If Trump were president, they'd say, well, should have happened faster. But at least you,

00:05:19.520 you know, you led us toward the end of this. If Biden is the president,

00:05:23.660 it's going to look like he cured coronavirus. Because luck and timing are just so important to how

00:05:30.340 people see you. And then what about the economy? Again, the advantage that Obama had is he came in

00:05:37.780 when the economy was at a bottom. And if it improved at all, it was going to improve in big percentages,

00:05:43.780 which it did. And because of the coronavirus, whoever comes in next, it's going to have the

00:05:49.620 same situation. You know, Trump is enjoying it at the moment because he's the president. But I would

00:05:55.460 expect 2021 would be a very successful economic year, all things being equal, because the coronavirus

00:06:04.520 will be lessened and the jobs will be coming back, etc. So it's a it's a really good time to win the

00:06:11.860 presidency. Because I think it's going to look really good. Now, Biden could ruin it. Think about

00:06:20.680 this. Biden will be if Biden becomes president, he would be inheriting a situation that's really good,

00:06:29.300 except for the coronavirus, which will probably take care of itself, essentially, by next year.

00:06:36.460 So I don't know if we've ever been in better shape as a country, if you think about it. So will Biden

00:06:43.060 want to make radical changes to a country that has a economy roaring back? No wars?

00:06:53.560 What kind of big changes do you make when things are going pretty well? Yeah, we'll talk about fraud.

00:06:59.560 We'll get there. All right. So somebody is going to be very lucky. Here's my take. No matter how much

00:07:08.540 fraud we think there was in this election, let me make some general statements that we'll all agree

00:07:14.600 with to start start with agreement. It goes like this. If you have a big complicated system, it doesn't

00:07:22.180 matter whether it's the voting system, or it's a big corporation, or just any big complicated system

00:07:28.580 with millions of people involved and different rules and lawyers and stuff like that. As long as

00:07:34.780 you've got lots of people involved, there will be errors. Let me put it this way. If we re-ran the vote

00:07:42.880 tomorrow, and exactly the same people voted, do you think we'd get the same outcome? I don't think

00:07:50.180 there's any chance we would. Think about that. If we re-voted tomorrow, and just said, all right,

00:07:55.920 we better just do it again. And hypothetically, it's not really possible. But imagine that only the

00:08:02.260 exact same people voted. Would the count of the vote be the same? And the answer is there's not

00:08:10.800 even a little chance that it would be the same. Not any chance. Statistically, zero, basically.

00:08:17.960 Now, would that difference be big? Well, statistically speaking, you could expect that it probably would

00:08:25.440 not be. Because if the typical kind of mistakes that we make in our election were so big that,

00:08:33.680 you know, you could notice them, we would already have noticed them. But here's the thing.

00:08:42.340 Errors and fraud are not evenly distributed. Meaning that, let's say that the total amount of

00:08:50.020 fraud and error in the whole country was, you know, 0.05 or something, whatever is a small number to

00:08:56.280 you. If it all happened in one place, it changes the election. Could it happen all in one place?

00:09:04.980 Suppose it happened in Philadelphia. That could change the election. Suppose it happened in Detroit.

00:09:12.180 Just one place. Could that change the whole election? Yup. Yeah, good. So,

00:09:18.920 it can be simultaneously true that there has never been widespread fraud, emphasis on widespread,

00:09:27.060 and yet the fraud there is can completely change the election. Now, I'm not saying that happened.

00:09:32.720 We don't have direct evidence that that happened. But I'm saying that two things can be true. 1.00

00:09:39.400 There could be no widespread fraud, which, by the way, is what CNN is reporting. So they're starting

00:09:47.140 to disappear in the story that there's any problem with this election because they think Biden's going

00:09:52.240 to win. And the beginning of the disappearing is how they choose words. And choosing that word is

00:10:01.560 really, really careful. There's no widespread fraud. Because you know you'll see anecdotes and

00:10:08.560 allegations of individual things happening. So they have to convince you that any kind of fraud

00:10:15.340 would have had to have been widespread would have had to have been widespread or it wouldn't have

00:10:19.980 mattered. Right? But that's just not true. The fraud that would be the most effective would be not

00:10:28.640 widespread. It would be concentrated exactly where you needed it when you needed it. So here is the

00:10:35.920 situation. Republicans are claiming that there was specific targeted fraud. That's the claim. Specific targeted

00:10:46.820 fraud in those areas that are, you know, the most important. And CNN will report that there's no evidence of

00:10:54.800 widespread fraud. That's not the claim. The claim is not widespread fraud. The claim is specific targeted fraud.

00:11:03.140 So that's the first part of how the mainstream media will disappear any controversy so that Biden can

00:11:10.640 have a, you know, a good presidency if he ends up winning an end. So I say that this is an ideal

00:11:19.380 opportunity to really find out how much fraud there is, what the baseline is. Because you know there's some,

00:11:26.800 right? It's not zero. If you have a big system like this, somebody's frauding a little bit.

00:11:32.320 We just don't know if it matters. And I've not seen evidence that it's big enough to matter. But

00:11:37.880 that's what we're looking for. So I think that it would be a good thing for the future of the country

00:11:43.420 that even if it doesn't change the outcome of this election, I wouldn't mind at all taking this excuse

00:11:51.020 to do a deeper legal dive and really just look under every rock, check every signature, and really just

00:11:58.820 find out what we're dealing with. Because the very next election, you know, the next midterm election,

00:12:04.800 probably going to be a lot of mail-in votes. So we better figure it out no matter which way it goes.

00:12:11.240 Now, just for fun, I've been saying that, you know, a couple of ways to put a filter on what we're

00:12:17.740 watching is that we're a simulation or, and this could be an either or, it could be connected, but

00:12:24.960 or that artificial intelligence is already running the world and we just don't realize it yet.

00:12:31.240 And here's how we play this fun game. You say to yourself, if it is a simulation and the way it's

00:12:39.200 going to end up is the best movie, what would that look like? If you were the movie writer,

00:12:45.420 you can say, okay, let's give it a twist at the end. What would be the best twist?

00:12:49.800 Then alternately, and I'll tell you what that is in a moment. Alternately, if AI was in charge,

00:12:57.120 what would AI want to happen to the extent that an artificial intelligence can want something?

00:13:04.340 So it's the AI version of wanting. It's just, it's objective, if you will. And it turns out that

00:13:10.200 they're the same. Now, I don't know, is that a coincidence or is that built into this little

00:13:15.640 mental experiment? I don't know. But it goes like this. If we're a simulation that's going to turn

00:13:22.260 out like a movie, this is the third act. The third act is by definition where you, the audience, have

00:13:29.660 given up that your hero of the movie, let's say Trump in your case, can prevail. Have we not reached

00:13:39.240 that? Have we not reached the point where rational people who would like Trump to win are saying,

00:13:46.620 uh-huh, looks like it didn't happen. Looks like the numbers have turned. So if Trump has lost,

00:13:55.820 and that's the way it's going to go, it would feel exactly like it feels right now. It would feel like

00:14:01.060 it's slipping away, and then it just slips away, and everything felt just like it should have felt.

00:14:06.420 The other possibility is the third act, that the way you feel right now is exactly the way you're

00:14:13.720 supposed to feel, because that's how the movie was written. You're supposed to feel like all is lost

00:14:20.220 until the twist. So what would be the twist that would satisfy the movie, if it's a simulation,

00:14:28.060 and also, coincidentally, satisfy what AI would want? Somebody says you're going off the rails.

00:14:35.360 This is just for fun. If you can't hang with this, you should go somewhere else. So don't complain

00:14:43.220 that it's not true, because you'd be missing the point if you're complaining that it's true or not

00:14:50.680 true. It's a filter on reality that can either predict or it can't, and we're checking to see

00:14:57.200 if it predicts. Here's what both the simulation, if we're like a movie, and it's the third act,

00:15:02.300 and the AI would both want. And it goes like this. They would want you to think that Trump had lost

00:15:08.840 in the narrowest of margins until there was some technical legal twist, or maybe some other twist,

00:15:19.860 like finding some fraud. But the best would be a technical legal twist that changes the result at the

00:15:27.200 last minute. Now, why would that satisfy both the movie and the AI? Well, the movie wants the most

00:15:34.420 surprising twist that only comes at the end when you've already given up. There's no way, and then

00:15:39.540 the twist. So that satisfies the movie. It would come from nowhere. What satisfies AI is that AI wants

00:15:47.140 as much conflict as possible, but keeping us alive, because AI needs conflict for AI to reproduce,

00:15:55.360 because the more conflict we have, the more algorithms you're going to need, the more they

00:16:00.520 grow in importance. So at this point, both the simulation and the AI predict that there's a twist

00:16:07.360 coming. And that twist will give you a Trump presidency with less credibility than the first

00:16:17.420 term. Because that's what the movie would be. And that's what the AI would give you. So what would

00:16:25.140 that take? Well, there's one legal challenge that could do it. Now, I can't handicap any legal

00:16:33.280 challenges. I don't have that kind of background. But it's out there. And it goes like this.

00:16:39.800 Apparently in Pennsylvania, there was a third court system that decided that they could count the votes

00:16:46.740 after the election. But the state legislature had not made that decision. And they're the only ones who

00:16:53.420 can make it constitutionally. I think I described that right. But the point is, there's a technical

00:17:00.420 situation in Pennsylvania that is real and observable. In other words, nobody would question

00:17:08.120 the following statements. That the Pennsylvania courts made a decision that is really the domain

00:17:18.180 of the legislature. I feel like that part everybody would agree on. It's legal stuff. So, you know,

00:17:25.740 I can get lost in this pretty easily. Don't take me too seriously on any legal stuff. But let's say

00:17:32.060 that's the case. There's a technical violation. Let's say it ends up in the Supreme Court. And I don't

00:17:37.700 even know if that's possible, by the way. I don't know if that question can get to the Supreme Court.

00:17:43.060 But let's say it does. You've got a situation where the Supreme Court, if it were a narrow margin with

00:17:51.440 Justice Roberts, you know, narrowly conservative, he might make a decision that's good for the country

00:17:57.480 and good for the court that isn't exactly interpreting the Constitution. And I'm not sure that that would

00:18:05.700 be the worst thing in the world, right? It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for the Supreme Court

00:18:10.980 to make what I'll call an adult decision as opposed to a technically correct decision. It wouldn't be the

00:18:18.700 worst thing in the world. But Justice Roberts doesn't have that power anymore, because the

00:18:24.740 conservative majority has been increased with Amy Coney Barrett. So if this Pennsylvania technical

00:18:32.100 problem is real, and it looks real, and it gets to the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court will have

00:18:40.080 two choices, I think. Again, I'm not really the good one for analyzing legal stuff. So I'll do my best,

00:18:47.600 if anybody can correct me in the comments or later, that would be appreciated. But you would imagine

00:18:54.960 that these literal conservative judges would say, hey, just tell us what's in this, what's in the

00:19:00.900 Constitution? What does the Constitution say? And did they follow it? You would imagine the

00:19:08.440 conservative Supreme Court justice was would say, look, I'm not I'm not trying to change the election.

00:19:14.180 I'm just saying, our decision is that wasn't constitutional, so it doesn't count. That could

00:19:20.100 happen. That could happen. Alternately, the conservative judges could say, yeah, technically,

00:19:27.400 that's a violation. But it's more important to get a vote count that the public is willing to

00:19:33.140 think is credible. So my guess is that even this conservative Supreme Court would have to think

00:19:39.580 really hard about creating an illegitimate outcome, even by following the rules. They might be better

00:19:48.840 off not following the rules to get an outcome that looks more fair to the public. It's possible,

00:19:55.680 even though they're conservative judges. So the point is, there is a path still, not just that one,

00:20:02.160 but it could happen. So you might get yourself a President Trump, and you might get it in the least

00:20:12.420 credible way to Democrats, meaning that if Trump became president on a technical legal thing, and it

00:20:22.140 was because he packed the courts with his what the Democrats will think are illegitimate, you know,

00:20:30.960 packed the court with illegitimate, you know, Amy Coney Barrett, because the process they thought was 0.95

00:20:36.120 rushed or whatever. So that would be the ultimate bad situation is a less credible President Trump.

00:20:48.400 Although, you know, I have to say that I'm having some mixed feelings about the whole thing.

00:20:53.720 You know, if it's up to me, I prefer Trump wins. So let me say that unambiguously. If it's up to me,

00:21:00.100 I prefer Trump wins, for a variety of reasons. But suppose it doesn't happen.

00:21:08.680 Would it be the worst thing in the world that I don't spend my days defending Trump,

00:21:14.900 but rather I do the far easier thing, which is criticizing Biden all day? Because criticizing Biden

00:21:23.100 all day long, it's going to be easy. And nobody's going to hate me for it too much, right? As long as

00:21:30.220 I'm fair, not just being crazy. And I feel like it would be easier. So it's not a complete loss. And

00:21:39.020 I would feel, you know, maybe I would be safer if I walked outside. So anyway, it won't be the end of

00:21:45.920 my world. But weirdly, a lot of people, trolls are coming at me lately, as if they think it will be

00:21:52.920 the end of my world. They seem to think that I will fall apart, or I will be destroyed forever,

00:21:59.940 or shamed into oblivion, or something, if Trump doesn't win. And that is such a complete misreading

00:22:09.360 of who I am as a human being, that it's jaw dropping. The last thing I'm going to be crushed

00:22:17.020 at is a political outcome. That just doesn't, that doesn't touch me personally. I enjoy it as

00:22:26.580 entertainment, in a sense. Now, of course, I don't want my taxes to go up, but that's a separate

00:22:30.980 decision. So there's a rumor that I think has been debunked, we don't know yet, the rumor that

00:22:36.480 President Putin has Parkinson's and is planning to step down. I think some British papers were

00:22:43.700 reporting that, but Putin denies it. So who knows if that's true. But if it is true, it would explain

00:22:52.660 a lot, wouldn't it? If it turns out that Putin has Parkinson's, wouldn't that explain why all those

00:22:58.540 mail-in ballots have shaky signatures? I mean, that guy must be exhausted, what with all of his

00:23:04.640 foreign interference and stuff. And let me ask this question, that is one of these red pill kinds 0.99

00:23:13.820 of questions. So in 2016, it is reported as fact, and it's in the history books as a, it's a fact.

00:23:21.540 It's just a fact that, that Putin interfered with the 2016 election, and it mattered, according to

00:23:31.760 the Democrats. So Democrats believe that Putin, by making a few dozen Facebook memes that almost

00:23:40.260 nobody saw, and those memes look like they were made by children, the, the, the belief, the popular

00:23:47.920 belief is that those changed the election for Trump. Democrats believe that, that it made a difference.

00:23:54.520 So why didn't he do it again? Why didn't Putin or China or anybody else, Iran, why didn't anybody

00:24:04.980 interfere with the election this time? Is this the first election that we've never had foreign 0.71

00:24:11.900 interference? Or is it the first time they've never been caught? Or was it never really a thing

00:24:22.080 ever? Because if we're not talking about it at all in this election, it wasn't real in 2016.

00:24:33.640 Are you with me on that? That either it was real in 2016, and probably something like the same amount

00:24:40.700 happened in 2020, or it probably didn't happen at all in either case. Now, when I say it didn't

00:24:48.600 happen at all, I don't mean that there was not a Russian troll farm that made some memes. I mean that 0.79

00:24:54.460 whatever happened was so trivial that it basically was zero. So it was either zero before, and it's still

00:25:01.180 zero. Or how do you explain that every foreign country just decided not to interfere this time?

00:25:12.640 Are you telling me that you don't think foreign countries had a pretty big rooting interest in

00:25:18.340 this? I would say they had a really big interest, especially China, right? And Russia, and Iran,

00:25:25.920 our biggest rivals and frenemies, had a lot of incentive. But this year, huh? This year, nothing.

00:25:37.060 Doesn't that tell you that whatever the narrative is that's being fed to the public is clearly

00:25:43.460 fraudulent? I don't know what the truth is. Again, I don't know if there was foreign interference

00:25:50.740 all the time. I don't know. What is the baseline truth of this? I just don't know. But I know that

00:25:59.380 what we were told isn't true, right? I mean, the only thing you can rule out is the official story.

00:26:06.780 That's the only thing you can rule out. All right. And at the same token, if those few dozen Facebook ads,

00:26:17.800 allegedly from Russia, probably from Russia, changed the result of the 2016 outcome, why weren't any

00:26:25.740 Republicans or Democrats using that clever meme trick of making a few dozen bad memes that look

00:26:33.420 like they were made by children, spending $100,000 total to run these ads? If it works, why weren't

00:26:42.220 both parties doing it? Because it would be legal for them to do it. It's only illegal for Russia to do 0.76

00:26:48.460 it. So if Russia did a small test in which they proved that these few dozen lame memes with no

00:26:57.580 advertising budget worked, then the Democrats should be doing it. Because it worked. Right? Unless it never

00:27:07.960 worked, of course. So somebody asked me to mention Robert Reich. So there's the conversation about

00:27:18.820 the, what do they call it, the Truth and Reconciliation Board or something? Some kind of an official group

00:27:25.760 to re-educate Trump supporters? I don't think you really have to worry about that. Do you?

00:27:34.640 I mean, it's pretty chilling that anybody's even talking about it, and I know, slippery slope,

00:27:40.140 et cetera. But I don't feel like that's real. I could revisit that later. So let's talk about the

00:27:45.960 votes. It looks like Georgia flipped narrowly for Biden, and that would be a necessary state for Trump

00:27:53.640 to win. But as Matt Gaetz points out, we don't have the military votes yet. So the military votes,

00:28:00.800 if you imagine that they skew Trump, could flip it back to Trump. What about Pennsylvania? Well,

00:28:07.960 legal problems and Arizona still has a mathematical path to become just barely Trump country. So here's

00:28:18.180 something that could happen. Georgia could flip back to Trump on military votes. I don't know the odds.

00:28:25.780 I don't know the odds at all, but apparently it could happen. Pennsylvania could go Trump,

00:28:32.900 depending on, you know, a variety of legal things and just whatever the final count is.

00:28:39.400 Nevada has a legal challenge that looks like it has a little bit of meat, something about

00:28:44.700 out-of-state people voting, but I don't know if that's enough to change it.

00:28:48.200 Um, and Arizona could just go Trump. So don't we have a path where Georgia flips back with the 0.91

00:28:59.080 military votes, Trump holds Pennsylvania, and Trump wins Arizona outright? Is that path not still open?

00:29:08.240 Because everything's changing by the minute. It's possible to change while I'm on Periscope. But

00:29:14.820 how unlikely is that path? Does that seem? Uh, somebody in the comments is saying, oh my God, Scott,

00:29:26.300 Scott, you told us they would hunt us down. Um,

00:29:29.900 um, I think there will be some trouble, meaning that Trump supporters will probably be, you know,

00:29:38.680 singled out and they'll have, they'll have some problems. So I think that that part's true.

00:29:45.060 What's not true is that there'll be a truth and reconciliation committee where you'll all be pulled

00:29:50.700 into, I don't know, confess to the committee or something like that. So I don't think it'll be any

00:29:55.900 state managed process to hunt down Trump supporters. I do think that on an individual basis, on an

00:30:03.500 employer basis, it's, it's going to be a divided country for all those reasons. All right. So it

00:30:11.960 seems to me that there's still a path. Let me tell you about some of the fraud, uh, fraud things that

00:30:18.340 are being at least alleged. So here are some of them. Um, before I tell you these, let me give you

00:30:27.040 some context. Here's the thing I learned when I was a bank teller years ago. I learned that these two

00:30:35.400 things are both true and see if you can, I've, I've used this one before, but if you're new, you haven't

00:30:40.040 heard it. See if you can figure out how both of these things could be true. And they are true, by the

00:30:44.660 way, that all bank robbers get caught. And when I say all, I mean 95%. So 95% of bank robbers get

00:30:52.320 caught. So that's the first fact. Well, the second fact is that 95% of bank robberies are unsolved.

00:31:03.260 Now, how can it be true that almost all bank robbers get caught, but almost all bank robberies

00:31:10.120 are unsolved. How could they both be true? And the answer is that bank robbers keep robbing banks

00:31:17.280 until they get caught. So they can rob 10 banks, nine of them, they don't get caught, the 10th they

00:31:22.960 do, but they're, but it's known that once they start, if you get nine successful bank robberies in a

00:31:28.980 row, you're going to try a 10th, right? So they pretty much all get caught while each individual one

00:31:36.060 doesn't. Keep that in mind as to how you can be fooled by this kind of information. All right. So

00:31:45.660 you can easily be fooled if you haven't integrated, you know, all of the information. So here are some

00:31:52.160 of the things we're hearing. We're hearing something about Sharpies being given to Republicans that would

00:31:57.160 make their votes invalidated. I think you'll find that one's not substantive. So I think Sharpiegate 0.89

00:32:04.720 will go away. I do believe it's possible that somewhere Republicans were given Sharpies while

00:32:12.100 Democrats were given regular pens. I don't know if it made any difference. There was a story of a van

00:32:18.920 full of Biden only votes showing up late at night. There's a woman who makes that claim. So there's a 0.98

00:32:26.420 real person who says, I personally watched this van show up. It had only Biden votes, which would be

00:32:33.260 impossible, etc. It's one person. And I feel like if that were real, it would be on both networks

00:32:42.100 already. So I think there's something wrong with that story, but I don't know what it is.

00:32:47.040 I'm seeing questions about the watermark. So there's some rumor, I don't know the details,

00:32:51.760 that some of the ballots had a watermark on it to track fraud. And that that watermark has allowed

00:32:58.820 them to in fact track some fraud. I don't know if that one's true. So I'm going to put a low odds on

00:33:05.440 that. So you see what I'm doing here. I'm creating the same situation as the bank robberies and the

00:33:11.240 bank robber. It could be almost certainly that there was fraud somewhere in the country. So it can be true

00:33:19.660 that there was fraud. At the same time, it's true that every single example or allegation of fraud

00:33:26.340 is not real. Do you get that? It could be true at the same time that there was fraud,

00:33:32.900 not necessarily widespread, but in some places. That could be true. While it's also true that 100%

00:33:39.600 of the examples are not true. Everybody gets that that can happen at the same time. And I think that's

00:33:47.220 sort of what we're seeing, you know, these, these stories. There's stories that only Biden votes

00:33:54.520 showed up at the end. I doubt that would hold up. There was a report yesterday that 14,000 dead

00:34:00.880 people voted in Wayne County, which is Detroit. But that's still being looked at. That still has some

00:34:07.320 life. But I guess the list doesn't show dead people. The data they were using is people over 100.

00:34:14.940 100. So there, there was an assumption in this analysis that the people over 100 were probably

00:34:21.560 dead, and some of them were confirmed to be dead. But we don't know yet if this was a major problem

00:34:26.840 or a minor one. So that's still being looked at. I would say the, the dead people voting is guaranteed 0.98

00:34:34.420 to be real in the sense that at least one dead person voted in 2020. Do you agree? Do we agree

00:34:42.820 there's a 100% chance that at least one dead person voted in 2020, meaning a fraudulent ballot? We just

00:34:50.340 don't know how big it was. So that's, that's the mystery. We've got the video of the lady filling out

00:34:57.700 multiple ballots at a counting station. Now here's a little lesson for you on understanding reality.

00:35:04.780 The worst analysis mistake you can make is to assume that if you can only think of one reason

00:35:11.760 for an observation, that's the reason. Because you can only think of one explanation. So that must be

00:35:19.620 the one. Consider though that your imagination is not that good. And lots of times when people can only

00:35:26.240 imagine one explanation, I can imagine seven. Because I imagine things for a living. It's literally what I

00:35:34.160 do. When I get off of this live stream, I'll go imagine things in a Dilbert comic, and I'll write

00:35:39.960 them down. So imagining alternate possibilities is what I do professionally. I almost always can at

00:35:47.360 least imagine several different explanations for the same fact. So you saw the video of the woman

00:35:53.600 filling out, apparently, filling out a bunch of different ballots herself as some kind of counting 0.97

00:36:00.340 facility where she should be counting and not filling out ballots. Right? So what other explanation could

00:36:09.180 there possibly be for why there's a video of a woman clearly filling out ballots, a bunch of them by 1.00

00:36:18.040 herself? What other explanation? Is there any? I'll give you one. Maybe she was testing the document

00:36:28.360 reading machine to see if she used a Sharpie, if it would register. Right? Now, I'm not saying that's what

00:36:38.320 happened. I'm saying if you didn't imagine that scenario, there was at least one possible explanation

00:36:45.120 that you didn't imagine. Which doesn't mean anything about what the outcome is. I'm just

00:36:51.580 making a comment about the limits of our imaginations. Don't assume that because you saw it with your own

00:37:00.940 eyes that you interpreted it correctly. Remember, the Covington kids you saw with your own eyes,

00:37:07.920 it just wasn't true. Remember the fine people hoax? The people who believe us think they saw it with

00:37:13.820 their own eyes. On video. But it didn't happen. The people who believe the drinking bleach hoax are

00:37:21.560 positive they heard it and saw it with their own eyes. But it didn't happen. So if you were positive

00:37:28.060 you saw that woman filling out things and you saw it with your own eyes and there's no other way 0.99

00:37:33.120 that that can be explained. Well, it probably is. Somebody says it could be staged. Correct. It could be

00:37:42.380 just a fake video that was completely staged. What are the odds of that? Very, very small. But it's a

00:37:50.340 good example of how there could be another explanation.

00:37:52.860 So there you go.

00:37:59.660 It's called duplicate ballots. I don't know what that means. Yes, and maybe it was fraud. So you can't rule

00:38:06.180 out fraud. It's called curing. What is curing? You mean filling in the boxes better? Could it be that

00:38:20.540 it was a bunch of ballots that were poorly filled out? But a human can clearly tell what was intended?

00:38:28.060 So all she was doing is drawing thicker lines over the weaker lines as somebody did with a pencil

00:38:33.460 or something? Maybe? Somebody says recreating torn ballots. Suppose there were torn ballots that

00:38:41.540 couldn't go through the machine and all they wanted was to create a fake one that would go through the

00:38:47.180 machine. So they make a duplicate to run through the machine and then put a note on the original so

00:38:52.760 it doesn't get double counted. Maybe? Maybe? All right. So just don't imagine that you can think of

00:38:59.720 all the explanations. Some other alleged frauds. There's the mailman with the trunk full of ballots

00:39:06.680 that tried to get to Canada. All of these anecdotal stories are like, they all have low credibility

00:39:13.780 individually. And then there's non-residents voting in Nevada. That's almost certainly true. We just

00:39:21.520 don't know the extent. Don't you think there's a hundred percent chance that at least one person

00:39:27.340 who used to live in Nevada but moved away got a ballot and filled the deal? At least one. We just don't know

00:39:37.160 how many. Let's see. Then there's the poll observers who were prohibited in Pennsylvania, I think. I'm not

00:39:46.700 sure about other places. So Republicans were very aggressively prohibited from observing the results

00:39:55.080 in Pennsylvania. Does that mean that if they had observed the results, they would have observed

00:40:01.240 fraud? Well, again, can you think of any other reason why Democrats would deny Republicans an

00:40:10.420 opportunity to do what the law requires, which is observe the vote? Can you think of any reason that

00:40:16.380 they would do it other than they plan some fraud? I can. I can think of another reason. They just don't

00:40:24.700 want to be bothered by being picked to death about all their decisions. They just think it's easier and

00:40:30.260 faster and they just don't want to be bothered with, you know, having to answer to somebody looking

00:40:34.860 over their shoulder. Now, I'm not saying that's the reason. I'm not saying it's that and I'm not saying

00:40:40.640 it's because of fraud. It could be that they don't want the Republicans to claim fraud because they saw

00:40:47.160 something that maybe wasn't fraud because it would give the Republicans something to claim. So there's

00:40:55.640 no excuse for violating the law if the law says Republicans get to observe. So that's just a

00:41:02.160 violation of the law. And I do think it would not be unreasonable to throw out all of those ballots

00:41:07.840 or to require them to be recounted with Republicans looking at them. Somebody says, Scott, you disappoint

00:41:16.080 me. Well, I'll cure that by blocking you. Here's what I don't want to hear from any of you.

00:41:26.260 You can disagree with me on anything, but don't misinterpret me and then misjudge me.

00:41:32.960 That is just so boring that I'm going to block you for that. That's what this gentleman was doing,

00:41:38.860 although he didn't give details. He's disappointed in me for what exactly? Because I don't believe all

00:41:46.220 of the claims of fraud. I just told you there's a hundred percent chance of fraud. A hundred percent.

00:41:53.200 I just don't know if these examples are the proof that anybody wants. So don't misinterpret me and

00:41:59.920 then criticize me. You can criticize all you want, though. Just don't misinterpret before you do.

00:42:04.920 And then what about vote harvesting? So there are claims of vote harvesting, but I don't know

00:42:11.260 if it's illegal where it was done. So again, I don't know if that one will turn into anything.

00:42:18.660 Now, it might not matter that these individual cases are not persuasive if there are enough of

00:42:25.660 them. Oh, there are a couple of other fraud claims. One of them is that there are a number of vote totals

00:42:32.240 that are not random. In other words, there are a number of reported totals by, I don't know,

00:42:39.400 precinct or whatever that have zero, zero at the end of the total and way more than chance would

00:42:45.740 suggest. So it looks like people filled out things illegitimately. So there's the data people are

00:42:51.980 looking at whether the numbers reported could have happened by accident. So that's still fruitful.

00:42:58.320 And they're still looking at the dead people, the databases compared to the people who voted,

00:43:03.520 trying to clean that up a little bit as we go. And I think that's going to be fruitful too.

00:43:08.700 I just don't know if it'll be fruitful enough. Somebody saying in the comments that Georgia

00:43:14.920 announced a recount. Well, that makes sense. How do you do? I thought you could announce a recount until

00:43:21.800 you had a total. Is that different by state? Because they don't have the military ballots,

00:43:30.760 I think, unless they did get counted today. All right. So I think the Trump team still has some valid

00:43:38.180 allegations, ones that will stand up. We just don't know if they're big enough in impact to change

00:43:45.180 anything. Somebody says Project Veritas sees postmarks being changed in Michigan. So that might

00:43:56.620 be another one. So there's a hundred percent chance that fraud happened. And whether or not the Trump

00:44:02.540 administration can find specific examples that are big enough to matter, that's the whole game right

00:44:09.000 now, isn't it? Unless you can create enough doubt that the doubt itself pushes it to the Supreme Court,

00:44:16.940 and then somehow the Supreme Court can save it for you. I don't know that that's going to happen.

00:44:21.920 All right. I find that I was strangely troll-free in 2020. Compared to 2016, it wasn't even close.

00:44:34.580 And I can't tell if it's because of how clever I was. Meaning that I learned that I can block

00:44:43.480 comments, at least block myself from seeing them, by keywords. And my trolls were so organized that

00:44:50.440 they used the same keywords all the time. So I just figured out what keywords my trolls use,

00:44:55.620 and I blocked just those. And I had this delightful Twitter experience with very few trolls. But a bunch

00:45:02.780 of them have figured out these words that I haven't yet blocked. So I've got a new batch that got

00:45:09.000 through my screen. But I think I tightened that up. So my life on Twitter is much better without

00:45:15.440 trolls. It's not as good as being on Locals, by the way. If you don't know, I'm also on the Locals

00:45:22.040 platform. Locals, just like it sounds, dot com. And over there, it's people who want to be there,

00:45:28.540 so there are no trolls. And that's a much better experience. And I do stuff there that I don't

00:45:35.000 show in public. Here's how the mainstream media is trying to disappear the story of any irregularities

00:45:46.540 in the vote. And irregularities could include, you know, up to the point where Trump could win,

00:45:53.580 I suppose. So you can see it beginning to happen. And here's how it happens. The first part I

00:45:58.320 mentioned, they will deny a thing that nobody's claiming and hope you can't tell the difference.

00:46:05.940 Somebody says voter role discrepancies is what we should be looking at. The difference between who

00:46:12.020 is eligible to vote and who did vote, and looking for places where more people voted than there are

00:46:18.720 people who can vote. So that was one of the comments. And maybe, maybe that'll be something.

00:46:24.880 But anyway, here's what the mainstream media will say. And I'll use an analogy to make this case.

00:46:33.660 Somebody just said, I'm a disgrace. We'll hide that user. Goodbye.

00:46:41.300 All right. So the mainstream media is going to deny the wrong thing and hope that the public can't tell

00:46:52.080 the difference. So the Trump administration will say there was targeted fraud in a few places.

00:46:58.720 The mainstream media will look you in the eye and say, there's no widespread fraud, which of course is

00:47:04.600 not what's being reported. Rather, it's targeted fraud. So they'll just turn it into widespread so they

00:47:11.180 can say it doesn't happen. And the public will hear it and say, well, the news says there's no widespread

00:47:16.140 fraud. And they won't make the connection that that was never the claim, that the claim is that

00:47:21.780 it's targeted. Of course. Widespread fraud wouldn't do anything. Because the only way widespread fraud

00:47:29.680 would work is if it were massive and nobody noticed. And that kind of doesn't happen. But you could have

00:47:36.040 targeted fraud where the people who notice are all in on it. So that you could get away with that.

00:47:45.020 The other thing that they're doing is there's absolutely no reporting, as I said, on foreign

00:47:54.760 interference. Why is the mainstream media no longer reporting on foreign interference? Do you see the

00:48:03.000 reason? If CNN started reporting that Russia had interfered with the election, it would make a Biden

00:48:13.960 victory, which they expect, illegitimate. So suddenly, Russia doesn't interfere anymore. Now, if Russia had

00:48:23.860 interfered successfully, wouldn't that tell you that there's an even greater chance that some individual

00:48:31.240 cities and precincts also interfered? In other words, if the mainstream media puts it in your head

00:48:37.500 that Putin or China or Iran could interfere and did this year, it's easier to believe that Democrats

00:48:47.080 also interfered. So they want the entire idea of interference to not even be anywhere in your brain.

00:48:54.240 Do you see that happening right in front of you? So the setting the table to disappear the story that

00:49:01.460 there's anything wrong with the election is being set up right now, right in front of you, and you can

00:49:06.200 watch it happening. So without the foreign interference story, and by putting in that word widespread,

00:49:13.380 they can get most of it. And then they can label anything that has maybe a little meat to it.

00:49:20.440 They can label it baseless. Do you know why they can label it baseless? Because they haven't looked

00:49:27.940 into it. So they can label anything baseless simply by deciding not to report on it. That's what makes

00:49:35.520 it baseless. It's baseless because they don't look into it. So they'll be baseless and widespread,

00:49:42.740 no foreign interference. This is all how to disappear the story. And then there will be the conspiracy

00:49:51.720 theories word, so that they'll be able to sort of sweep their hand at all the conspiracy theories.

00:49:59.800 So if they can debunk several of the specific allegations, which will be easy, right? If there

00:50:07.020 are 20 allegations, how hard would it be to find that three of them are not real? It'd be easy.

00:50:14.180 Of course, if there are 20 allegations, I guarantee that at least three of them are not real. Closer to

00:50:21.800 20 of them are not real, but at least three. So then the mainstream media can say, look at all these

00:50:29.200 ridiculous rumors that have already been debunked. The Republicans claimed A, B, and C, and all of them

00:50:36.780 have been debunked as conspiracy theories. So can we really take the other things seriously? Can we

00:50:42.980 take those other claims seriously? Because look at these other ones. They're just conspiracy theories.

00:50:47.480 I mean, we're not going to spend our whole life looking at one conspiracy theory after another from

00:50:53.440 Republicans. If we've debunked three of them, walk away, right? So that's what's shaping up. And it's

00:51:06.620 exactly like you thought. Then you're also seeing the pressure on large Republican platforms. I believe

00:51:14.360 Steve Bannon got banned from Twitter forever, right? Alex Jones already gone, right?

00:51:21.940 President Trump, his own tweets are being suppressed, right? Now, you might say, but Scott, Scott,

00:51:31.420 Scott, in your opinion, they were not credible people, or that's no big deal, because they're not

00:51:39.020 the normal Republicans. They're sort of edgy people. But what's important is they had big platforms.

00:51:46.720 So a lot of Republicans would hear a different version through these platforms.

00:51:51.940 Then they would hear through the controlling mainstream media. So the controlling mainstream

00:51:57.020 media is picking off one dissenting platform after another and shrinking the total amount

00:52:03.620 of energy that Republicans have for any message. So you can see it all coming together. All right.

00:52:12.120 Um, that is pretty much what I wanted to talk about today. Uh, and, uh, do they hope Q will shut up? Yeah. And Q would be another one. So I'm not the one who's saying that Q said anything real. I don't know if Bannon is saying things that are real or not. I have no idea. Uh, Alex Jones has some mix of things that are real and are not. I can't tell the difference most of the time.

00:52:39.840 But that's not the point. That's the excuse that's being used to take them to de-platform them.

00:52:48.980 Um, but it's more about the energy and the noise and the power that's being diminished. It's just, it just takes down the, uh, the power from the Republicans.

00:52:58.120 Um, I would have to say that my own social media platforms were not affected, uh, in the last several months that I can tell. In other words, my, uh, user growth on Twitter is off the charts, 600,000, uh, followers on Twitter.

00:53:18.760 That doesn't look like it's been, um, compromised in any way in the last several months. I did think that, you know, back in 2017, 16, but I haven't seen it lately.

00:53:30.680 And likewise, um, even YouTube, which used to de-monetize basically everything I did, which, you know, and, and minimize it so it just couldn't grow.

00:53:41.860 In the last few months, since around May, my YouTube traffic took off and most of it gets monetized after a, an appeal.

00:53:50.040 I still have to appeal it almost every time.

00:53:51.920 So that the algorithm demonetizes me automatically, but at least we get it reversed on appeal most of the time and the growth of subscribers went crazy.

00:54:01.780 So if I only look at my own experience as a user, I don't think I got, um, any kind of pressure on my account that I could notice.

00:54:13.960 Now, I remember we did have that problem earlier in the year that probably continued, which is people get unfollowed automatically.

00:54:20.860 That's still a giant question mark.

00:54:24.780 Uh, it's only a question mark as to why it happens.

00:54:27.680 It's, it's confirmed.

00:54:29.100 I would say that it does happen and it happens a lot.

00:54:32.280 All right.

00:54:34.040 How can this happen?

00:54:35.300 Somebody says, I don't know which part.

00:54:39.120 Do you think that's fair? 1.00

00:54:41.900 Fair is a word for children and idiots because the world does not have any fairness. 1.00

00:54:48.960 Fairness is not a objective standard. 1.00

00:54:52.220 It's just how you feel.

00:54:53.860 Two people can have a different idea of what's fair.

00:54:56.720 So I, I try to avoid using that word unless I'm talking about somebody else using it.

00:55:02.500 I, I don't like to say things are fair or not fair because that's just subjective.

00:55:08.460 Um, somebody says Cernovich's periscopes were throttled.

00:55:13.940 Could be.

00:55:14.680 Um, the lefty truth squad will come after you.

00:55:21.100 I kind of like the fight.

00:55:24.660 Is there anything wrong with that?

00:55:26.880 I, I do worry about myself sometimes.

00:55:29.400 Do you ever have those moments where you wonder about your own mental health and you think to

00:55:33.400 yourself, well, if I'm worried about my mental health, maybe that means I am sane because 0.68

00:55:39.080 a crazy person wouldn't know they're crazy.

00:55:42.540 Um, and one of the things that I worry about in myself is that I sometimes enjoy fights.

00:55:51.060 Meaning that if the leftists come for me, it's kind of exciting.

00:55:56.980 I don't, I think I like the attention more than I'm worried about the outcome or I like the

00:56:05.360 fight or I like something.

00:56:07.280 There's something about it that, uh, on an irrational level, I'm drawn to it.

00:56:13.360 Uh, I have to tell you that, uh, I received a threat on social media that something would

00:56:19.840 happen at my house on election night.

00:56:22.820 All right.

00:56:24.900 Now, if I were normal, my, my reaction should have been, oh my God, I have a security threat.

00:56:32.840 I don't know if it's real or not, but I better treat it as real.

00:56:36.300 There could be, I don't know, a person or an angry mob at my house on election night.

00:56:41.200 And instead, my first reaction, and again, this is why I worry about myself.

00:56:45.960 My first reaction was, well, that's going to be fun.

00:56:48.740 Like I, I imagined an angry, uh, uncontrollable mob forming in front of my own house while

00:56:57.740 I'm inside and I couldn't get worried about it.

00:57:02.080 I should.

00:57:03.380 I mean, if I were sane and normal, I would say to myself, oh, that's a bad problem.

00:57:08.380 I better think about this all night.

00:57:10.080 And I couldn't, I just couldn't get worried about it.

00:57:13.220 And I thought how fun it would be if an angry mob showed up at my house.

00:57:18.480 That's all I could think of is how fun it would be.

00:57:21.280 And that's not good.

00:57:25.300 That's not good at all.

00:57:29.500 Yeah, I do love a good fight.

00:57:31.720 I'm pro second amendment and it wouldn't take people long to figure that out.

00:57:36.660 So I feel like I'm a lot safer than, um, than you might think.

00:57:43.360 And my house has a unique quality to it.

00:57:46.660 I won't describe it in detail, but if you got inside my house, you'd be in a lot of trouble.

00:57:55.160 You'd be in a lot of trouble if somehow you actually got inside.

00:57:59.360 That, that would be the worst thing you'd want to do.

00:58:01.640 Uh, and I won't tell you more about that.

00:58:04.580 Just assume that getting inside my house, even if you're armed, it's, it's just not a good play.

00:58:11.980 Just, just believe me when I tell you that.

00:58:14.360 All right, that's all I got for today.

00:58:15.880 And I will talk to you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 06, 2020

Episode 1178 Scott Adams： Election Hallucinations and Absurdities Everywhere. Let's Discuss Over Coffee.

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