Episode 1180 Scott Adams: Let's Explore the Depths of my Cognitive Dissonance and Congratulate President Elect Biden
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Summary
In this bonus episode of No Coffee, Scott Adams answers the question, "Am I experiencing cognitive dissonance?" Is the election over, or is there something coming that we don't see that we should be worried about?
Transcript
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Hey, everybody. Come on in. It's time for a very special afternoon bonus coffee or no coffee with Scott Adams.
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And that means you don't need to have a beverage this time. You could just join in without any kind of a beverage.
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So it's kind of special that way. Well, let me start out by saying congratulations, President-elect Biden.
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According to the vote, I don't think the vote is the official vote will change too much.
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But we're going to talk about what might happen that might surprise you. Just maybe.
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Because I like a good, a good story. And I'm going to give you one. You ready for it?
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So congratulations to President Biden and Kamala Harris for hard fought battle.
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Well, according to our system, you won. And I congratulate you for that.
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But is it over? Oh, is it over? That's what we're going to talk about.
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Because there might be something coming that you don't see.
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And you're going to want to stick around for that. Oh, yeah. You are going to want to stick around for that.
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But the big question is, and I've been seeing people ask this on social media,
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And I would like to explore that with you, and you can be the judges.
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Because the nature of cognitive dissonance, if I've told you anything,
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is that the person who suffers from it is the only person who can't tell that they have it.
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So the allegation is that I am suffering right now because of the election outcome from cognitive dissonance.
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And I just won't let go of President Trump's chances.
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I would tell you that there are two ways you could spot this alleged cognitive dissonance in me,
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and that it would be invisible to me by definition.
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Because if I could see it in myself, then I wouldn't have it.
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The trigger would be something that I had experienced or observed that I knew to be true
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that violated my sense of myself or my sense of how the world should be.
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Is there anything that has happened so far that violated my view of reality?
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I thought Trump would win, but was there any time I thought that it was somehow an impossibility
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that Biden would get more votes one way or another?
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So in my case, there's nothing that I've observed that is different from my mental model.
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I did think that the polling was terribly wrong.
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And sure enough, even though the result was slightly different than I thought,
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So that was accurate in terms of what I expected.
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People who got triggered by Trump couldn't believe he could possibly get elected in this country.
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Biden is the most sort of ordinary politician in the world.
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It's not the biggest surprise in the world that the Democrats put up a big fight and that a lot of votes were cast.
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Now, the other thing is, so I would argue that I do not have a trigger because my worldview has not been violated.
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But is there evidence that I'm acting irrationally, which would be the other tell?
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You need there to be a trigger, something that obviously violated somebody's sense of reality.
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But then also that they're acting irrationally because of it.
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So I'm going to enter into the irrational part.
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Now, those of you who have been watching me longer have a little better context for this.
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And you know that when I think of the odds of things happening, I don't think in terms of this will happen and this can't happen.
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I think it's a 90% chance this will happen or a 50% chance.
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And I'm going to tell you a story of what I think will happen based on the odds.
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So what you should be looking for is anywhere where I've estimated the odds in an irrational way.
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Because if you agree with my estimate of the odds in each of the things I'm about to talk about,
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you're probably going to be pretty close to my opinion.
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But if any of my estimates of the odds are just way off and crazy, well, that would suggest maybe I've got a little bit of confirmation bias,
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a little bit of cognitive dissonance going on, and that sort of thing.
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Let me say as clearly as possible, it is not my opinion that the only way that Joe Biden could have won is if the vote was faked.
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So I would say that if I believe the only way he could win was just this one explanation, that would be a little cognitive dissonancy, right?
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You know, likewise, when the Democrats said, the only way Trump could have won must have been Russian interference.
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Well, if you thought it was possible, you might be a rational person.
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If you thought it was the explanation, that's a little cognitive dissonancy.
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But if you just thought there were some, you know, chance of it, that would be a little bit different at least.
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All right, here are the odds of things, according to me.
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Number one, will anomalies be found in the vote?
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Now, when I say anomalies, I don't mean these little anecdotes of I saw somebody fill out some ballots,
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or I saw somebody throw something away, or there was something in the trunk of the car of the postal service guy.
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I'm not talking about the little one-offs, somebody saw something.
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If you added those all together, they probably don't add up too much.
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And I'm not talking about even necessarily the stories of the big van that pulls up with all the Biden votes only,
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because I suspect that you're going to find out that nearly all of those stories are not true.
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Okay, so do I sound crazy so far when I say that nearly, if not every story that you're hearing in the media about fraud
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Now, I would say there's a 100% chance that anomalies will be found.
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Now, would they be scientifically proven in the long run,
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or are they things that look like anomalies but have perfectly good answers?
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it doesn't matter if the anomalies are alleged and not real
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Because the point I'm going to make is that it would be enough for political purposes
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hey, can we do an audit, let's say a digital audit,
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of the entire digital database software situation
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just to feel comfortable that everything went the way it was supposed to go.
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What are the odds that Republicans will ask for a digital audit?
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The Democrats asked, well, not for a digital audit,
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but Democrats several times tried to reform the voting system,
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to look like maybe there was something wrong with the voting system.
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Because the situation is that, at least officially,
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So would the Democrats want to look into the voting system
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At the same time, you would expect Democrats would say,
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We'll maybe do some reforms, but that's for later.
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Suppose President Trump takes advantage of a gift
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that the Democrats gave to him that he never asked for.
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He is the king of creating an asset out of nothing.
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that the Democrats accidentally created a gigantic negotiating asset for him
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Democrats believe he might not want to leave peacefully.
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Because he actually has something to negotiate with now.
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Now, I'm not telling you yet what that one thing is,
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but would you agree that the Democrats have essentially brainwashed themselves
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into believing it's a real thing that Trump would not leave the White House?
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But I feel like the Democrats created that asset out of nothing.
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They created a belief that was a little bit crazy, in my opinion,
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but they believe it, that he won't leave the White House.
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Now, what are the odds that President Trump will not recognize
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that that asset has been created and he can use it now?
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He recognizes a free asset that's a psychological construct.
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Hey, I know the Republic really depends on the peaceful transfer of power.
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As a patriot, I believe in the peaceful transfer of power,
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And when that audit comes back and it shows that I lost,
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or even if it changes a little bit, I'm sure I'll still lose,
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and then I will proceed with the peaceful transfer of power.
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Now, is there anybody in the public, I'm talking to you, voters,
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is there anybody who thinks it's not a good idea to audit a digital system?
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Because if the Democrats don't agree to an audit of the system,
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they're basically telling you it's not a credible system.
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and some people will believe those other reasons,
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They might have totally factual, reasonable reasons
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why you can't or shouldn't audit the election that just happened.
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But all it requires is the Republican legislatures to say,
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you're not going to comply with the most reasonable thing
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My dog is making strange noises if you hear them.
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What is a higher principle than transparency in the election?
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You get a President Biden, a peaceful transfer of power,
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it probably frees up the electoral college
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But we're going to have to do what the Constitution was designed to take care of,
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which is have our smart electors make a decision that could be independent of the official vote
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because we can't certify that the vote was credible.
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What would happen if the GOP electors in the electoral college said,
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they said, look, we honestly can't tell who won in our state
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because there's a little too much non-transparency.
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Depending on which states, I suppose, it could go either way.
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Now, let's say instead that the Democrats call his bluff
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If it's the only way to get Republicans on board
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and we want it, you know, Biden is the unifier.
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And if you're the unifier and you're Biden and you're a centrist,
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I want my presidency to be as credible and valid as possible.
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So, yeah, I realize that a politician might say no to this,
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I'm just going to be, I'm going to level with you, no malarkey.
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And see if you agree or disagree with the odds I'm going to put on this stuff.
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So if you've done any Googling or you've spent time on YouTube
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you will be amazed and appalled when you hear how the,
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You will learn that it is done not by our government,
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You will learn that in several cases they are not American companies.
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Non-American companies are handling important parts of our counting our votes.
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And I believe at least one of them is in Spain,
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one of them is in, one of them is a Canadian company, et cetera.
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that's not the biggest problem in the world, is it?
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Because you would expect that there would be transparency.
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But those companies also have proprietary systems, proprietary software,
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and so they have never been audited because nobody else can see their stuff.
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What are the odds that these digital systems that support the vote,
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We'll talk about whether they have been hacked separately.
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But just the question of is it possible to hack them
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such that the vote could be changed in a database or as it's happening
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I'm no expert, but sometimes it helps that you've got a little bit of a skill stack
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So I've been around a lot of software development, including my own companies.
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And one thing I can tell you for sure is that most systems have at least some weakness
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But you don't even need to have a digital way to hack it.
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That's not the way it's done for the big stuff.
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For the big stuff, such as throwing an election, you bribe an insider or blackmail them.
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How hard is it to bribe an insider to get a change made in any company?
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It turns out it's really easy, and there's plenty of evidence that it's happened in other big companies.
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They just find the person who's in charge of it.
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A lot of people will take a million dollars to flip a bit.
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So if you say it can't be hacked, that would only be because you don't understand enough about the world.
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Either the technology could be directly hacked in some cases, even if it's hard.
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But remember, the people who would be trying to hack it would be governments.
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We're not talking about a kid in the basement as good as that kid in the basement might be a hackie.
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We're talking about the best hackers who have ever existed on Earth in each of the major countries.
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Probably every one of them took a run at it, right?
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Is there anybody who disagrees with that estimate of the odds that just as a general concept,
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it is 100% hackable, even if the hack involves bribing an insider to do it, okay?
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Then the second chance is, what are the odds that somebody did succeed in hacking it?
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I would say the odds that somebody will eventually hack it, because it is hackable,
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and the upside gain of hacking it is so gigantic, I mean, it's billions or trillions of dollars,
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that people would keep hammering at it until they succeeded.
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So presumably the intelligence services of each of the major countries would try to get an insider here
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or try to get somebody close to the insiders or try to get their own person on that job or try to hack it.
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And they would just keep hacking and hacking away.
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And eventually I would say the odds of somebody hacking it, whoever, could be domestic, could be foreign.
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But if you wait long enough, the odds are 100%.
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They have the highest incentive in the world to hack it, and they wouldn't stop trying.
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do you think that the electoral college electors
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do you think an audit is just pretty much required?
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don't you think they should plug those holes and audit the heck out of that thing?
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So here's the weird, strange path that Trump still has.
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If the Republicans decide to fight with the same
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this is the time when it is perfectly appropriate
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and try to, you know, get past any bad feelings.
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no way, we don't think Biden even had the popular vote.
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Now, I don't know if a recount gets you what you want.
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of everything that ever changed in the vote database?
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if it's architected in a way we could retrieve that.
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Let's say there is a log of every change to the database
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a subtraction and an addition at the same time.
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that that's exactly how you would find a problem.