Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1203 Scott Adams： Biden's Foot, Data Anomalies, Opening Schools, Who Took the Utah Monolith？

00:00:00.000 Good morning, everybody. Did you all enjoy your Thanksgiving with family? Go get tested.

00:00:16.800 According to Dr. Birx, you're all infected. You're all infected. Go get your tests.

00:00:22.260 Better put my ring on before somebody asks me about it.

00:00:25.620 And how would you like to start this morning? The best way?

00:00:30.000 Yeah, why would you do it any other way?

00:00:32.020 The best way is with a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a steinac anti-junk or a flask, a vessel of any kind.

00:00:38.660 Fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee.

00:00:43.480 And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:50.520 Except your Utah monolith. It's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now. Go.

00:00:54.760 Ah. Oh, yeah. That's good stuff.

00:01:04.120 Well, let's talk about all the things that are happening.

00:01:07.940 I hope you all saw the story about a mysterious metal obelisk that appeared in the Utah desert.

00:01:15.240 Now, here's the strange part.

00:01:21.180 It was a famous in the news obelisk.

00:01:25.940 It was about the size that a few strong people could pick it up and put it in a truck.

00:01:33.520 It was unguarded and valuable because it was famous.

00:01:39.300 What are the odds that somebody would steal a valuable, because it's famous, movable, unguarded object in the middle of the desert?

00:01:53.240 Now, if you think that somebody may have taken it, I think you need to prove it.

00:02:00.500 I think you need to prove that somebody went in there and took that.

00:02:06.000 Because I don't see any evidence.

00:02:08.960 It's just a thing that was 100% likely to be stolen.

00:02:15.260 So, like your election, if there's something of high value and it is largely unprotected,

00:02:22.200 do you have to wonder if somebody's going to take it?

00:02:26.360 Do you have to think real hard and say,

00:02:31.740 huh, there's an unprotected, valuable asset in the middle of the desert where everybody can find it?

00:02:40.300 Do people take it?

00:02:43.480 Huh.

00:02:45.160 Yes.

00:02:46.180 People take it.

00:02:47.900 People take it.

00:02:49.460 And indeed, it looks great in my living room.

00:02:52.140 Let me tell you that.

00:02:56.360 So, I was talking yesterday on Twitter about whether you could prove a negative, and this is one of those examples.

00:03:06.960 You know, you can't prove that that obelisk is going to be stolen, but do you need to?

00:03:12.300 How much proof from me would you need in advance to know that that obelisk would be stolen if it were famous and unguarded and you could pick it up?

00:03:27.220 So, I was arguing that sometimes, in special cases, you can know that something happened without any evidence.

00:03:38.080 Because it's the situation.

00:03:40.300 It guarantees it.

00:03:42.160 So, Gregory Towns on Twitter decided to challenge me on that idea that sometimes you do know something happened, even if you don't have direct evidence.

00:03:51.840 And he said this in a tweet.

00:03:53.860 He said,

00:03:54.880 Has anyone debunked the very credible and serious allegation that Scott Adams had sex with a goat?

00:04:00.940 Except he didn't say sex.

00:04:02.500 He used a naughty word.

00:04:04.960 And so, has anyone debunked that credible allegation that I've had sex with a goat?

00:04:10.580 So, my first instinct was to tweet back wittily that that was false, and that I've never gotten past second base with a goat.

00:04:18.420 Later, I realized that you would have to have some farming experience to know why that is so hilarious.

00:04:25.900 Because in order to milk a goat, you kind of have to get to second base, if you know what I mean.

00:04:32.900 So, those who did not have farming backgrounds were not too impressed by that joke.

00:04:38.380 So, I followed up with a second one.

00:04:41.560 And you can choose which of these hilarious replies you'd like better.

00:04:47.280 So, instead of saying I never got past second base, I decided on the second reply about the allegation that I can't prove I did not have sex with a goat.

00:04:58.420 And I said,

00:04:59.640 My mistake.

00:05:00.860 It was horny and eating garbage, so I mistook it for your mom.

00:05:06.900 So, why do people say witty things to cartoonists on Twitter?

00:05:12.640 I don't know.

00:05:13.680 It's like walking into a narrow ravine.

00:05:15.580 It feels like it's just too easy.

00:05:19.360 In other news, you want to hear the biggest news in the world?

00:05:23.340 It's the biggest news in the world.

00:05:26.320 Nay, not the biggest news in the world.

00:05:30.240 The biggest news in reality itself.

00:05:34.500 Yeah.

00:05:35.320 And it goes like this.

00:05:36.560 I have often been asked if we were living in a simulated world, and this were just some kind of computer simulation that we think is real, but it's not.

00:05:49.760 How would you know?

00:05:51.480 Could you prove it?

00:05:52.900 Well, I don't know if proof is the right word, but there are things that you should look for if we are a simulation.

00:05:59.880 And one of the most obvious things you should look for is that we can create the past.

00:06:07.060 In other words, the past doesn't exist objectively because we were just invented in a certain period of time, if we're a simulation.

00:06:16.480 Which means that if we were to examine our past, the past would actually not exist until we started looking for it.

00:06:26.440 Because the computer program would not go through all the effort of creating a detailed history if nobody ever cared.

00:06:35.000 So that's the way you would write a simulation.

00:06:37.720 You would only code the parts that would matter.

00:06:41.000 And you wouldn't code anything nobody would look at, nobody would care about.

00:06:43.980 So, if we ever discovered, in scientific terms, that you could change the past, not change what you know about the past, but actually change the past, we would be a simulation.

00:07:01.500 Now, that alone wouldn't be the one piece of proof, but it's a pretty big one.

00:07:05.320 And it turns out that there is exactly that kind of experiment, where it can be proven that two observers can observe an objective past which is different.

00:07:21.700 Meaning that they can look at something that's proven, meaning that they can look at something that's proven, I mean really just proven, two different people in two places, and they can see for sure a past that's different.

00:07:36.060 One of them sees a past that's different from the others, and they're both proven.

00:07:41.440 Two different objective pasts.

00:07:43.660 Can't both be true, right?

00:07:44.860 If we were just one reality, there would be one past exactly, there would be no alternative pasts, there would just be one.

00:07:55.700 But now science has proven that there can be at least two in this one example.

00:08:02.340 Now, I tweeted it, it's a Deepak Chopra tweet, so look for that, I tweeted it yesterday if you want to follow up on that.

00:08:08.720 But the reason I say that this experiment shows that the past can be programmed is that one of those two observers went first.

00:08:19.640 So one of the observers went first and solidified a past that's now done.

00:08:26.200 So that past is completely solidified.

00:08:29.760 The second observer comes in and rewrites the past, changes it.

00:08:35.920 Because it used to be one thing was true, and the second observer made a second thing, which is 100% incompatible with the first thing.

00:08:44.460 They can't both exist, but they do.

00:08:47.620 That is creating the past.

00:08:50.480 And so we are a simulation.

00:08:53.640 Maybe.

00:08:55.520 All right, there's a story that Biden sprained his ankle, but then it turned into a hairline fracture on his foot.

00:09:03.920 And the story was that it happened when he was playing with his big old dog.

00:09:11.300 Now, does that sound true to you?

00:09:14.520 Do you think that he injured himself playing with his dog?

00:09:19.000 Totally possible.

00:09:20.760 Do I have any information that would suggest that this is not true?

00:09:25.560 That he didn't injure himself playing with his dog?

00:09:28.760 I have no information that would suggest that's not true.

00:09:32.260 I will simply point out that if it weren't true, this is just hypothetical,

00:09:39.600 if, let's say, he just fell down or tripped in an old man way,

00:09:46.020 which is pretty common for old men and old women, right?

00:09:50.860 If that happened, again, just hypothetical, I'm not saying it did,

00:09:56.780 what kind of story would your handlers make up that would be a perfect lie?

00:10:03.120 What is the perfect lie?

00:10:05.600 Well, the perfect lie would be, number one, something slightly athletic,

00:10:11.020 something active, something a young person does.

00:10:14.660 But if that thing had been, let's say, going for a run or that thing had been going for a bicycle ride,

00:10:23.940 there would be evidence because whenever the president-elect allegedly leaves home,

00:10:31.000 there's going to be reporters and stuff.

00:10:33.380 So they couldn't go with the story of an athletic event because people would know it didn't happen.

00:10:40.540 So you have to come up with something that would be active and young and athletic

00:10:46.460 that would just sort of happen around the house where nobody was watching.

00:10:51.700 So what do you do?

00:10:53.540 Well, what's the most vital, manly thing you could do?

00:10:57.980 Rough housing with your very large dogs.

00:11:01.920 Perfect.

00:11:03.380 Perfect.

00:11:04.000 Now, again, I'm not saying that the story is false.

00:11:09.940 I'm just saying that whenever you see a story that's just a little bit too perfect,

00:11:14.880 you have to ask yourself,

00:11:16.880 is this one of those times that reality served up a story that's a little bit too perfect?

00:11:23.180 Or are you seeing a cover story?

00:11:25.860 No, no.

00:11:26.200 Well, when I saw that Biden had hurt his foot, I said to myself,

00:11:33.460 Biden thinks he's president-elect, but his doctors gave him the boot.

00:11:38.840 He's actually wearing a boot now for his bad foot.

00:11:42.920 And I said Biden protested, but he didn't have a leg to stand on.

00:11:47.900 No.

00:11:49.060 And those were not that funny, but I wasn't done yet.

00:11:53.580 No, I'm not done.

00:11:56.800 The final one, I think I'll end it on this one, is,

00:12:00.040 I don't see how Biden could ever win in court.

00:12:02.680 He has no standing.

00:12:04.980 I think that one I like the best.

00:12:07.820 And I'm not going to go with Trump had the agony of defeat,

00:12:12.160 but Biden has the agony of the foot,

00:12:14.760 because that's too ordinary.

00:12:17.880 That's one you could have done yourself.

00:12:19.460 You don't need a professional for that one.

00:12:21.080 No, you need a professional for he has no standing.

00:12:24.900 That's the difference between the amateur and the professional.

00:12:29.420 All right.

00:12:31.480 There is more an increasingly number of accusations of specific fraud in the election.

00:12:40.420 There are now two forms of accusations.

00:12:44.800 I'm going to put them in two buckets,

00:12:46.120 because I like dividing things into two buckets.

00:12:48.340 Don't you?

00:12:50.220 You know you do.

00:12:51.440 You like dividing things into two buckets.

00:12:53.840 So I'm going to do that.

00:12:55.280 Bucket number one are the allegations of fraud that are pretty unlikely.

00:13:01.940 Let's say that one bucket has fraud allegations that largely are debunked.

00:13:08.380 But then there's another bucket with what I call the good stuff.

00:13:11.800 I told you in the beginning that 95% of all the allegations you would see...

00:13:18.180 Now, remember, I said this in the beginning.

00:13:20.460 Before the allegations were all out there,

00:13:23.620 I said 95% of whatever you're about to hear will not be true.

00:13:29.100 How did I do?

00:13:30.720 How is my prediction that 95% of the claims of fraud would be debunked?

00:13:38.280 I think I'm right on.

00:13:39.740 I think I'm right on.

00:13:42.800 I tweeted a series of debunks for some of the main claims that the president makes, actually,

00:13:51.280 and that other people make on his behalf.

00:13:54.060 Now, because there are credible-looking debunk claims to a whole bunch of allegation frauds,

00:14:03.040 what's that tell you?

00:14:04.660 Does that tell you that all of the allegation frauds are not true?

00:14:08.420 Because there are 13 of the most common ones you've heard,

00:14:12.660 and they've got pretty good debunking.

00:14:16.020 Now, I can't validate the claim, and I can't validate the debunk,

00:14:21.060 and most of us are in the same boat, right?

00:14:23.140 But when you read the debunk, it does look pretty convincing,

00:14:27.480 because it's usually stuff like, uh, you looked in the wrong column.

00:14:32.840 So go to this website, and you can see for yourself that you just looked in the wrong column.

00:14:40.040 Now, if that's your debunk, I don't even bother looking,

00:14:44.300 because that's such a bold claim that you looked in the wrong column,

00:14:48.340 and you can see for yourself, here's the link.

00:14:50.300 Like, that's probably a good debunk.

00:14:54.240 Not definitely, but probably.

00:14:57.440 If you have limited time, I would say that if somebody offers that debunk,

00:15:02.120 that's probably true.

00:15:04.060 All right?

00:15:05.660 So, most of the things that President Trump claimed,

00:15:10.540 such as dead people voting, has been debunked.

00:15:14.040 Does that mean that there is no dead person who voted in this election?

00:15:18.120 Of course not.

00:15:19.580 Of course some dead person voted in this election,

00:15:23.980 because it's possible, and it's a big country.

00:15:27.640 But there is no evidence that enough dead people voted to change the election.

00:15:34.520 Right?

00:15:34.900 So that's the kind of claim that you'll see debunked.

00:15:38.580 So there are about 13 of them, and I would call them the weak claims,

00:15:42.320 and you would expect that you would have seen more of them

00:15:45.040 in the beginning of the process,

00:15:47.060 and you would see if there are any strong claims,

00:15:50.540 if strong claims exist,

00:15:53.320 you would expect to see them about now,

00:15:56.420 because it takes a while to put that stuff together.

00:15:58.860 And sure enough, the strong claims,

00:16:01.200 the ones that I've been telling you,

00:16:03.140 you know, I could get a little bit of a preview,

00:16:05.720 because I knew they were being prepared.

00:16:08.200 The strong claims are starting to come out.

00:16:10.160 So you would look to people like Matt Brainerd for the strong claims.

00:16:15.340 Now, the strong claims are in the form of data anomalies,

00:16:20.100 and you're seeing some debunks of the strong claims.

00:16:25.020 But here's what you want to look for.

00:16:27.900 The strong anomaly claims tend to get a little complicated,

00:16:32.600 and if you're not a data analyst, you can get lost pretty easily.

00:16:35.640 Unfortunately, it's the complexity of the claim,

00:16:40.080 and the fact we're not data analysts, most of us,

00:16:42.860 allows the debunkers to say absolutely anything about the claim,

00:16:49.580 and you and I can't tell the difference.

00:16:52.000 So now I've read the claims of the anomalous data,

00:16:55.320 and I've read the attempted debunk of those claims,

00:16:58.460 and I'm not qualified to really judge either one of them.

00:17:04.040 But what I think I see is that the debunk

00:17:07.760 is strawmanning the actual real allegation,

00:17:14.760 meaning that the allegation,

00:17:16.380 and I'll try to get as close as I can to this,

00:17:19.820 but I'm way over my depth,

00:17:22.680 so do some fact-checking on this.

00:17:25.200 You're going to need it.

00:17:25.860 But there's a claim that late batches of votes

00:17:30.220 that came in certain cities were anomalous,

00:17:34.260 meaning that there was something unusual

00:17:36.680 about these late-night dumps.

00:17:39.240 Now, I believe that the strong claim says

00:17:42.420 we understand, and everybody understood,

00:17:46.320 that there would be big batches coming in.

00:17:48.660 So the claim is not that a big batch came in at night.

00:17:52.980 The debunk says there's a reason that big batch came in at night.

00:17:58.840 Everybody knew it would.

00:18:00.640 That's not a debunk, because it's not the claim.

00:18:04.240 The claim is not that we didn't expect

00:18:07.520 a lot of votes to come in,

00:18:09.520 but that's what they debunked.

00:18:11.440 Not really the claim.

00:18:13.280 It is also not the claim that it would be unusual

00:18:17.660 if 95% of those votes that came in,

00:18:20.760 given the places they came from,

00:18:23.280 went to Biden.

00:18:25.240 Now, you say to yourself,

00:18:26.560 well, if we're not doubting the number of them,

00:18:30.260 and you're not doubting that 95% of them were for Biden,

00:18:34.640 aren't we done?

00:18:36.200 What's left to doubt?

00:18:38.020 Wasn't that the claim,

00:18:39.700 that there were a lot of them,

00:18:41.880 and they were 95% for Biden,

00:18:44.900 and that's anomalous.

00:18:46.500 Then the debunkers say,

00:18:48.140 no, we understand completely

00:18:50.280 why there were so many votes that came in late.

00:18:53.480 Everybody expected it,

00:18:55.200 and we expected that they would be

00:18:57.000 overwhelmingly for Biden,

00:18:58.960 just like happened.

00:19:01.780 But that's not exactly the claim.

00:19:05.940 So watch how often this happens,

00:19:08.440 is that the debunk is just a couple of degrees off

00:19:12.400 from what the claim is.

00:19:14.380 And if you didn't know the details of the claim,

00:19:17.720 and you didn't understand the debunk,

00:19:19.940 you would think that that debunk applied to the claim.

00:19:23.360 But not quite.

00:19:24.920 Let me,

00:19:25.680 I'm going to do a bad job of this,

00:19:28.620 but I'm going to do the best I can

00:19:30.280 of trying to interpret what I think I read.

00:19:32.860 Okay?

00:19:33.660 So give this low credibility

00:19:35.400 relative to other things that I say.

00:19:39.400 And it goes like this.

00:19:42.060 Getting 95% of those big batches

00:19:44.820 of late votes for Biden

00:19:46.540 is indeed not that unusual.

00:19:50.160 Meaning that it is unusual,

00:19:52.840 but it's not impossible.

00:19:55.360 All right?

00:19:55.800 Especially when you have a president

00:19:57.880 who's, you know,

00:19:59.320 pretty provocative.

00:20:00.640 All right?

00:20:01.480 But here's the claim.

00:20:02.980 That if you go from 95% Biden votes,

00:20:07.780 which is possible,

00:20:09.300 I mean,

00:20:10.060 could happen,

00:20:11.340 to 98%,

00:20:13.480 you've gone from something

00:20:15.780 that's highly unlikely

00:20:16.920 to something that just can't fucking happen.

00:20:20.480 And that's the claim.

00:20:22.580 Yeah, I believe.

00:20:23.780 I believe that's right.

00:20:25.160 Now,

00:20:25.560 I need a fact check on that.

00:20:27.240 But if you don't do data analysis

00:20:29.220 and you don't understand

00:20:30.440 how, you know,

00:20:31.580 a big batch can change

00:20:33.240 a small batch

00:20:34.460 or a small batch

00:20:35.280 doesn't change a big batch,

00:20:37.000 you don't understand

00:20:37.840 the, you know,

00:20:38.800 the number stuff.

00:20:41.860 Somebody says

00:20:42.660 the host sounds high.

00:20:45.760 No,

00:20:46.400 that would be later today.

00:20:47.740 I usually don't get high

00:20:48.800 before Periscope

00:20:50.880 or YouTube.

00:20:53.300 So,

00:20:54.540 there's

00:20:54.900 the nature of the claim,

00:20:56.920 and I think you should take

00:20:58.060 what I just described

00:20:59.240 as more of an example

00:21:01.300 of the point

00:21:03.000 as opposed to

00:21:04.140 being right.

00:21:05.620 So,

00:21:05.960 is it true

00:21:06.520 that going from 95%,

00:21:08.000 which would be unlikely,

00:21:09.440 but,

00:21:09.800 well,

00:21:10.100 maybe,

00:21:11.320 to 98%

00:21:12.220 moves it from

00:21:13.380 possible

00:21:14.240 to not really possible?

00:21:16.180 That's the claim.

00:21:17.620 So,

00:21:17.880 every time you see somebody say,

00:21:19.720 Scott,

00:21:21.000 you idiot,

00:21:22.700 everybody knew

00:21:23.400 there would be

00:21:23.880 tons of votes

00:21:24.720 coming in late at night.

00:21:26.400 True,

00:21:26.920 but not the point.

00:21:29.240 If everybody says,

00:21:30.440 Scott,

00:21:30.740 Scott,

00:21:31.340 you knew it was going to be

00:21:32.700 overwhelmingly Biden,

00:21:34.200 those ones that came in

00:21:35.380 late at night.

00:21:36.980 True,

00:21:38.180 not really the point.

00:21:40.440 Do you see where I'm going

00:21:41.200 on this?

00:21:42.060 We will be so confused

00:21:43.560 by the data

00:21:44.540 anomalies

00:21:45.800 and that analysis

00:21:47.040 that you just won't know

00:21:48.220 what's going on.

00:21:49.420 And I don't even know

00:21:50.180 if the data analysts will.

00:21:51.880 Let me ask you this.

00:21:53.560 If,

00:21:54.320 as is

00:21:54.800 almost guaranteed,

00:21:56.020 let me tell you

00:21:57.140 something

00:21:57.460 that is so guaranteed

00:21:59.300 that you could put

00:22:00.540 a huge bet on it.

00:22:02.780 The data analysts,

00:22:04.340 in the end,

00:22:06.180 will disagree.

00:22:08.240 Right?

00:22:09.240 Is there any doubt

00:22:10.160 that very high-end,

00:22:12.480 top analysts

00:22:13.840 with Ivy League degrees

00:22:15.400 and tons of history

00:22:16.800 doing this exact kind

00:22:18.820 of math

00:22:19.520 and statistics,

00:22:20.360 don't you know

00:22:22.140 with complete certainty

00:22:24.520 that there will be

00:22:26.460 experts at that

00:22:27.460 highest caliber

00:22:28.280 on both sides

00:22:29.380 of this

00:22:29.740 in the end?

00:22:31.080 Not just in the beginning

00:22:32.480 where they are now.

00:22:33.960 You expect it in the beginning

00:22:35.260 because there's still

00:22:36.400 a little fog of war,

00:22:37.560 right?

00:22:38.480 But you also,

00:22:40.220 if you live in the real world,

00:22:42.260 you know that

00:22:43.000 when we get to the end

00:22:43.940 of this,

00:22:44.380 there's still going to be

00:22:45.320 highest qualified experts

00:22:47.700 on both sides.

00:22:49.200 You know that's true,

00:22:50.780 right?

00:22:51.220 Does anybody doubt that?

00:22:53.800 Because to doubt that,

00:22:55.720 you would have to be

00:22:56.320 very young

00:22:56.980 to say it

00:22:58.660 in the most kind way

00:22:59.840 I can.

00:23:01.460 So,

00:23:02.120 do you follow

00:23:03.320 the experts?

00:23:04.680 They're not going

00:23:05.620 to agree.

00:23:07.260 So,

00:23:07.900 that's another one

00:23:08.580 of those

00:23:09.020 when do you follow

00:23:10.240 the experts

00:23:10.960 questions.

00:23:12.860 All right.

00:23:13.840 So,

00:23:14.180 be aware

00:23:14.560 that there are

00:23:15.300 really good debunks

00:23:16.780 for most of

00:23:18.160 the claims

00:23:19.440 of fraud.

00:23:20.420 But there are

00:23:20.940 some things

00:23:21.580 which there are

00:23:22.980 debunks,

00:23:23.920 but they're not

00:23:24.900 quite on point.

00:23:26.360 And you have to

00:23:26.940 ask yourself why.

00:23:28.720 And also ask yourself

00:23:29.800 if these,

00:23:30.920 if the good,

00:23:32.320 oh,

00:23:32.660 and one of the ones

00:23:33.680 that's being questioned,

00:23:35.120 you're seeing that

00:23:36.020 people saying

00:23:37.000 there were only

00:23:37.760 four cities,

00:23:38.720 and I've said

00:23:39.240 this one myself,

00:23:40.660 but appears

00:23:41.720 to be not true,

00:23:43.160 only four cities

00:23:44.320 in which these

00:23:45.080 anomalies

00:23:45.680 happened.

00:23:47.720 And so,

00:23:48.040 that's part

00:23:48.440 of the debunk.

00:23:49.240 It's like,

00:23:49.520 no.

00:23:50.340 You look at

00:23:50.820 these other cities

00:23:51.640 and you can see

00:23:52.460 the same thing

00:23:53.540 you're claiming

00:23:54.040 for the four cities

00:23:54.920 is actually

00:23:55.500 more widespread.

00:23:57.380 To which I say,

00:23:58.760 again,

00:23:59.880 that's not really

00:24:00.920 the debunk.

00:24:02.280 Because if it

00:24:03.140 happened in the

00:24:03.880 four cities,

00:24:05.300 that's all

00:24:06.560 it needed to happen.

00:24:07.660 It doesn't matter

00:24:08.420 that it might have

00:24:09.080 also happened

00:24:09.800 in some other places.

00:24:11.660 That's not a debunk.

00:24:13.740 It is definitely

00:24:14.980 saying that

00:24:15.720 a detail

00:24:16.440 is inaccurate,

00:24:17.720 that it only

00:24:18.480 happened in

00:24:18.980 four places.

00:24:19.760 It's possible

00:24:20.280 that that detail

00:24:21.600 is accurate,

00:24:22.580 but that doesn't

00:24:24.520 really debunk

00:24:25.180 the larger claim,

00:24:26.440 I think.

00:24:28.540 What are the odds

00:24:29.540 that the guy

00:24:31.480 figuring this out,

00:24:32.480 his last name,

00:24:33.360 would be

00:24:33.700 Brain Nerd?

00:24:35.820 Well,

00:24:36.880 it's a simulation.

00:24:38.040 All right.

00:24:42.880 Here are two

00:24:44.440 interesting facts.

00:24:46.480 And I want you

00:24:47.060 to see if you

00:24:47.640 can figure out

00:24:48.920 why I put

00:24:49.740 these two

00:24:50.280 interesting facts

00:24:51.180 together.

00:24:54.480 Number one fact.

00:24:56.600 Trump doubled

00:24:57.440 his share

00:24:58.160 of black voters

00:24:59.540 compared to 2016.

00:25:01.220 Everybody agrees

00:25:01.960 with that,

00:25:02.320 right?

00:25:02.640 I don't think

00:25:03.420 that's being doubted.

00:25:05.000 Even his critics

00:25:05.960 agree that he

00:25:07.460 doubled his

00:25:08.400 black voter

00:25:10.200 support since

00:25:11.200 2016.

00:25:12.260 So that's your

00:25:12.780 first fact.

00:25:13.980 Here's the second

00:25:14.800 fact.

00:25:16.300 And this one

00:25:16.840 is an allegation.

00:25:18.300 So it's a fact

00:25:19.260 that it's alleged.

00:25:21.220 It's not a fact

00:25:22.220 that it's true.

00:25:23.300 Might be.

00:25:24.020 I just don't know.

00:25:25.260 So it's just a fact

00:25:26.200 that it's alleged.

00:25:27.080 Okay?

00:25:28.800 It's alleged

00:25:29.620 that most of the

00:25:30.440 anomalous votes

00:25:31.280 for Biden

00:25:31.760 were associated

00:25:32.620 with black

00:25:33.980 identities.

00:25:36.300 In other words,

00:25:37.360 it appears

00:25:38.640 that Trump

00:25:40.540 may have doubled

00:25:41.300 his black support,

00:25:43.000 but if it's true

00:25:44.520 that the fraud

00:25:45.340 was focused

00:25:46.200 in black

00:25:48.160 identities,

00:25:48.760 which would mean

00:25:49.960 black non-voters

00:25:52.400 in the past,

00:25:53.840 I think,

00:25:55.040 who had been

00:25:55.740 fraudulently

00:25:56.900 brought onto ballots

00:25:58.680 as if they had

00:25:59.540 voted,

00:26:00.540 but people

00:26:01.440 who have never

00:26:02.020 voted in the past

00:26:03.340 are the group

00:26:04.680 that is least

00:26:05.440 likely to check

00:26:06.500 on it later

00:26:07.140 and least likely

00:26:08.720 to notice

00:26:09.400 that somebody

00:26:10.700 had voted

00:26:11.120 in their name

00:26:11.800 because they're

00:26:12.620 so uninterested

00:26:13.460 they've never

00:26:13.960 even voted once.

00:26:15.840 So,

00:26:16.820 it's possible,

00:26:18.740 I'm not going

00:26:19.320 to allege

00:26:19.780 that this is a fact,

00:26:20.880 okay?

00:26:21.840 I'm just going

00:26:22.500 to say it's possible,

00:26:24.360 that not only

00:26:25.080 did Trump

00:26:25.600 double his share

00:26:26.560 of black votes,

00:26:28.160 but did he notice

00:26:29.320 that it still

00:26:30.500 wasn't as high

00:26:31.520 as maybe

00:26:32.860 something like

00:26:33.600 the Rasmussen poll

00:26:34.820 would have suggested

00:26:36.560 ahead of time?

00:26:37.840 Because Rasmussen

00:26:38.760 was showing

00:26:39.500 his black support,

00:26:42.940 Trump's black support,

00:26:44.120 at higher than 20%

00:26:45.920 for a long time.

00:26:47.600 But the final vote

00:26:49.180 didn't get quite as high

00:26:50.660 as the Rasmussen.

00:26:52.240 So is it possible

00:26:53.420 that Trump's actual

00:26:55.680 percentage of black vote

00:26:57.900 is even way higher

00:26:59.000 than the report?

00:27:01.920 Because if where

00:27:03.080 the cheating

00:27:03.600 was focused

00:27:04.560 was in

00:27:05.800 non-historically

00:27:07.760 non-voting

00:27:08.600 black citizens,

00:27:10.420 that would add

00:27:11.140 a whole bunch

00:27:11.660 of fake,

00:27:12.540 hypothetically,

00:27:13.880 would add a bunch

00:27:14.660 of fake votes

00:27:15.400 to Biden,

00:27:16.500 which would make

00:27:17.240 Trump's percentages

00:27:19.000 look artificially low.

00:27:21.320 if you were going

00:27:23.240 to cheat

00:27:24.160 Trump

00:27:24.960 and you wanted

00:27:26.920 to cheat

00:27:27.500 in a way

00:27:28.020 that when people

00:27:28.740 looked at it

00:27:29.440 after the fact,

00:27:30.720 they wouldn't notice,

00:27:33.040 where would you do it?

00:27:34.820 Where would be

00:27:35.540 the least noticeable

00:27:37.320 and most believable

00:27:39.600 anomaly,

00:27:41.180 if you want to call it that?

00:27:42.640 In other words,

00:27:43.280 where would you put

00:27:44.460 an anomaly

00:27:45.260 that people wouldn't

00:27:46.960 think was an anomaly?

00:27:48.020 Well, take these two things.

00:27:50.920 Ahead of the election,

00:27:52.820 Trump was scoring

00:27:54.260 on credible surveys

00:27:56.660 20-30% black voter support.

00:28:00.420 Crazy, right?

00:28:02.880 Based on everything

00:28:04.060 we know and think,

00:28:06.040 it doesn't seem possible

00:28:07.700 that he could have had

00:28:09.420 that much black voter support

00:28:11.220 ahead of the election.

00:28:13.080 But,

00:28:14.120 has Rasmussen proven

00:28:15.860 that they're polling

00:28:18.300 both in 2016

00:28:19.560 and this time,

00:28:21.860 have they proven

00:28:22.780 to be reliable

00:28:24.420 compared to other polls?

00:28:26.160 Yes.

00:28:27.380 I would say that

00:28:28.160 that's just a fact,

00:28:29.960 that Rasmussen

00:28:30.580 is more reliable

00:28:31.680 than other polls.

00:28:33.600 And there we're saying

00:28:34.540 black support for Trump

00:28:36.180 could be

00:28:36.800 not just higher

00:28:38.460 than before,

00:28:40.140 but crazy.

00:28:42.020 Like,

00:28:42.460 unbelievable crazy.

00:28:43.680 That's what

00:28:45.260 Rasmussen

00:28:46.420 was sort of

00:28:47.920 hinting at.

00:28:48.980 Now,

00:28:49.200 in the end,

00:28:50.580 was Trump's

00:28:51.340 black voter support

00:28:52.800 crazy?

00:28:54.500 No,

00:28:55.040 it was just impressive.

00:28:56.760 And there's a really

00:28:57.500 big difference

00:28:58.180 between impressive,

00:28:59.780 holy cow,

00:29:01.020 you doubled

00:29:01.840 your voter support,

00:29:03.540 but it was doubled

00:29:04.120 from a low base, right?

00:29:05.640 It's easier

00:29:06.180 to double 1%

00:29:07.720 than it is

00:29:08.300 to double 80%.

00:29:09.320 So,

00:29:10.120 there's a question there.

00:29:14.060 There is a difference

00:29:15.000 between what

00:29:15.800 you could have imagined

00:29:17.140 his vote would have been

00:29:18.500 and what it was

00:29:19.920 even though it doubled.

00:29:21.560 So,

00:29:21.960 if I were going to

00:29:23.140 hide

00:29:23.840 fake votes,

00:29:26.640 that's exactly

00:29:27.620 where I would hide them.

00:29:29.240 Because,

00:29:29.900 after the fact,

00:29:30.700 you say to yourself,

00:29:31.560 huh,

00:29:32.120 well,

00:29:32.340 I guess that Rasmussen poll

00:29:33.740 was way off.

00:29:36.040 Because

00:29:36.520 the Rasmussen poll

00:29:38.180 never really

00:29:39.960 quite felt

00:29:40.940 like it matched

00:29:42.640 your observation.

00:29:44.320 Because you think,

00:29:45.460 I watch CNN

00:29:46.240 and I'm not really

00:29:48.300 seeing something

00:29:49.040 that would look like

00:29:49.920 30% black support.

00:29:52.860 I mean,

00:29:53.540 the poll is dependable

00:29:54.820 because it's

00:29:55.760 a Rasmussen poll.

00:29:56.960 They repeated it.

00:29:58.160 They did it

00:29:58.660 week after week.

00:29:59.680 Same result.

00:30:00.940 You know,

00:30:01.140 it wasn't like

00:30:01.660 one week.

00:30:02.320 It was crazy

00:30:02.940 and then it went

00:30:03.460 back to normal.

00:30:04.200 Nothing like that.

00:30:05.660 There is still

00:30:07.060 a gigantic mystery

00:30:08.520 about why

00:30:09.880 Rasmussen

00:30:10.500 was so

00:30:11.680 accurate

00:30:12.840 in so many ways

00:30:14.340 and yet

00:30:15.500 the black support

00:30:17.220 seemed a little less

00:30:18.820 than you might have

00:30:19.720 expected.

00:30:21.380 All right.

00:30:25.000 I am going to

00:30:26.220 nominate

00:30:26.680 for the dumbest

00:30:28.220 insult

00:30:29.120 on Twitter

00:30:29.840 the word

00:30:31.320 grifter.

00:30:33.720 You know,

00:30:34.440 I've been called

00:30:34.960 a grifter

00:30:35.500 basically everybody

00:30:36.740 in politics

00:30:37.320 has been called

00:30:38.000 a grifter.

00:30:39.640 And here's why

00:30:40.280 this is the dumbest

00:30:41.380 insult in politics.

00:30:43.520 It's a little bit

00:30:44.620 like saying

00:30:45.280 it's like,

00:30:48.060 you know,

00:30:49.020 water is wet.

00:30:51.640 It doesn't really

00:30:52.780 say anything

00:30:53.900 because we live

00:30:56.140 in a world

00:30:56.660 in which people

00:30:58.020 merge their

00:30:59.040 passions

00:30:59.620 with their

00:31:00.820 occupation.

00:31:02.140 you see me

00:31:04.400 doing it

00:31:04.800 right now.

00:31:05.760 The reason

00:31:06.160 I do this

00:31:07.100 is because

00:31:08.380 I enjoy it

00:31:09.180 and I'm

00:31:09.960 interested

00:31:10.380 and I think

00:31:11.700 maybe I can

00:31:12.280 add something

00:31:12.940 to the system

00:31:13.660 that would be

00:31:14.320 part of the

00:31:15.280 greater good.

00:31:16.700 But I also,

00:31:18.360 because,

00:31:19.200 you know,

00:31:19.820 it started making

00:31:20.520 a big impact

00:31:21.560 and the audience

00:31:22.180 was getting bigger,

00:31:23.240 et cetera,

00:31:23.980 I did what

00:31:25.140 anybody would do

00:31:25.920 in my situation.

00:31:27.600 I said,

00:31:28.400 oh,

00:31:28.760 if I put this

00:31:29.480 on YouTube,

00:31:29.980 I could make

00:31:31.660 money,

00:31:32.680 I'm doing it

00:31:33.280 anyway.

00:31:34.280 I mean,

00:31:34.960 I don't think

00:31:35.580 I would do

00:31:35.900 anything differently.

00:31:37.100 But if I just

00:31:38.060 turn on this

00:31:38.740 switch over here,

00:31:40.260 money starts

00:31:41.000 showing up

00:31:41.540 in my bank

00:31:42.120 account.

00:31:43.000 So I think,

00:31:44.160 okay,

00:31:45.360 I'll turn on

00:31:46.120 that switch.

00:31:46.920 Why wouldn't I?

00:31:47.940 Because I think

00:31:48.800 I do do a better

00:31:49.540 job if,

00:31:51.020 you know,

00:31:51.320 if people are

00:31:51.960 showing that

00:31:52.460 kind of visible

00:31:53.220 support.

00:31:54.140 It just makes

00:31:54.800 me feel,

00:31:55.320 oh,

00:31:56.040 not only do

00:31:56.760 people like it

00:31:57.660 when I do it,

00:31:58.860 they're willing

00:31:59.340 to pay for it.

00:32:00.800 And then it

00:32:01.320 takes me to

00:32:01.920 a whole different

00:32:02.540 level of effort

00:32:03.600 and professionalism,

00:32:05.740 if you can even

00:32:06.420 call it that.

00:32:07.580 So calling

00:32:08.940 anybody a grifter

00:32:10.080 if they're talking

00:32:11.220 about politics

00:32:12.280 but have also

00:32:13.620 found a way

00:32:14.280 to monetize it

00:32:15.320 is really just

00:32:16.580 saying nothing.

00:32:18.260 Because pretty

00:32:20.000 much 100%

00:32:21.920 of the people

00:32:22.480 that you see

00:32:23.120 at some level

00:32:24.500 talking about

00:32:25.900 politics

00:32:26.420 are monetizing

00:32:27.380 it.

00:32:28.440 Why wouldn't

00:32:29.000 they?

00:32:29.820 Is that a crime?

00:32:31.500 Don't we live

00:32:32.120 in a system

00:32:32.680 where you're

00:32:33.500 supposed to do

00:32:34.400 that?

00:32:35.400 I mean,

00:32:35.660 if you see

00:32:36.100 an opportunity

00:32:36.740 to monetize

00:32:37.640 something you

00:32:38.180 were doing

00:32:38.660 anyway,

00:32:39.660 if you don't

00:32:40.860 monetize it,

00:32:42.420 you're not

00:32:43.340 really smart.

00:32:44.940 So I would

00:32:45.540 say that a

00:32:46.140 bigger insult

00:32:49.340 would be,

00:32:50.300 are you too

00:32:51.300 dumb to monetize

00:32:52.200 what you were

00:32:52.680 doing anyway?

00:32:53.300 Dr. Fauci

00:33:01.760 is saying

00:33:02.240 we should

00:33:03.080 keep the

00:33:03.500 schools open

00:33:04.340 and that

00:33:06.220 feels like

00:33:06.900 a bit of

00:33:07.660 a shift

00:33:08.200 in terms

00:33:09.320 of emphasis.

00:33:10.760 I think

00:33:11.040 for a while,

00:33:11.860 not for a while,

00:33:12.760 but I think

00:33:13.200 he's always

00:33:13.800 said that

00:33:15.040 you want

00:33:15.420 to do

00:33:15.680 everything

00:33:16.060 you can

00:33:16.520 to keep

00:33:16.920 schools open

00:33:17.720 if you can,

00:33:20.240 given the

00:33:20.920 the risk

00:33:21.360 reward,

00:33:22.000 etc.

00:33:22.620 So it's

00:33:23.320 not like

00:33:23.700 he went

00:33:24.000 from closed

00:33:25.220 schools to

00:33:25.740 open schools,

00:33:26.360 but he's

00:33:26.760 a little

00:33:27.000 more full

00:33:28.580 throated

00:33:29.000 about it

00:33:29.420 now.

00:33:30.380 So if

00:33:31.000 you're

00:33:31.160 keeping

00:33:31.400 score,

00:33:33.320 here's

00:33:34.240 the score

00:33:34.720 so far

00:33:35.200 from the

00:33:35.580 experts.

00:33:38.520 Experts

00:33:39.040 have so

00:33:39.340 far been

00:33:39.700 wrong about

00:33:40.360 when to

00:33:41.300 close

00:33:41.760 China travel.

00:33:44.560 Trump

00:33:44.960 was ahead

00:33:45.380 of the

00:33:45.600 experts on

00:33:46.120 that.

00:33:47.140 The

00:33:47.580 experts

00:33:47.980 have

00:33:48.220 changed

00:33:48.660 on mask

00:33:49.260 effectiveness

00:33:49.860 from its

00:33:50.680 doesn't

00:33:51.600 work to

00:33:52.000 it

00:33:52.120 does.

00:33:52.920 They

00:33:53.100 thought

00:33:53.360 remdesivir

00:33:54.140 was probably

00:33:54.960 going to

00:33:55.360 be the

00:33:55.680 good stuff

00:33:56.260 and it

00:33:56.600 isn't.

00:33:57.640 They

00:33:58.040 thought

00:33:58.320 vaccine

00:33:58.860 timelines

00:33:59.440 would be

00:34:00.060 a year

00:34:00.900 to five

00:34:01.360 years

00:34:01.820 and they

00:34:02.140 were

00:34:02.260 completely

00:34:02.760 wrong.

00:34:04.060 And of

00:34:04.800 course

00:34:04.980 they've

00:34:05.340 largely

00:34:05.760 ignored

00:34:06.280 rapid

00:34:06.880 testing

00:34:07.400 as

00:34:07.880 important

00:34:08.600 which is

00:34:09.220 wrong.

00:34:10.340 And they

00:34:10.780 thought

00:34:11.040 maybe there

00:34:12.400 wouldn't be

00:34:12.880 lasting

00:34:13.300 immunity

00:34:13.740 if you've

00:34:14.320 already been

00:34:14.740 infected.

00:34:15.920 They appear

00:34:16.460 to be wrong

00:34:17.020 about that.

00:34:17.540 We don't

00:34:17.740 know how

00:34:18.100 lasting

00:34:18.820 but lasting

00:34:19.560 enough

00:34:19.920 anyway.

00:34:20.680 And now

00:34:21.680 opinions on

00:34:23.140 schools

00:34:23.660 seem to be

00:34:24.760 moving more

00:34:25.640 toward that

00:34:26.820 would be

00:34:27.160 safe.

00:34:28.060 So if you

00:34:28.660 were to

00:34:28.860 compare the

00:34:29.680 experts

00:34:30.440 they got a

00:34:32.460 lot wrong.

00:34:33.820 Maybe they

00:34:34.500 still have a

00:34:35.100 lot wrong.

00:34:35.600 We don't

00:34:35.860 know because

00:34:36.400 we don't

00:34:36.720 know where

00:34:37.100 they are

00:34:37.440 on the

00:34:37.700 curve.

00:34:38.740 If they

00:34:39.180 start in

00:34:39.620 the fog

00:34:40.020 of war

00:34:40.440 and they're

00:34:41.360 wrong about

00:34:41.900 most things

00:34:43.040 forgiven.

00:34:44.960 Our experts

00:34:45.900 are not

00:34:46.360 magic.

00:34:47.840 They don't

00:34:48.440 have magic

00:34:49.100 powers.

00:34:49.520 So in

00:34:50.160 the fog

00:34:50.560 of war

00:34:50.860 they're

00:34:51.060 going to

00:34:51.220 get a

00:34:51.440 bunch of

00:34:51.720 stuff wrong

00:34:52.200 and you

00:34:52.500 should forgive

00:34:53.000 them completely

00:34:53.900 for getting

00:34:55.320 stuff wrong

00:34:56.060 in the

00:34:56.420 fog of war.

00:34:57.120 Nobody can

00:34:57.640 get everything

00:34:58.140 right in the

00:34:59.340 fog of war.

00:35:00.640 Complete

00:35:01.160 forgiveness

00:35:02.240 is appropriate.

00:35:04.520 But as

00:35:04.960 time goes

00:35:05.440 by they have

00:35:06.520 time to

00:35:07.060 experiment and

00:35:08.420 learn more

00:35:09.360 etc.

00:35:10.200 and they're

00:35:10.700 getting smarter.

00:35:11.900 But during

00:35:12.260 this time

00:35:12.960 I would just

00:35:14.280 like to note

00:35:15.040 that Senator

00:35:16.500 Rand Paul

00:35:17.560 who has

00:35:18.100 disagreed with

00:35:18.880 the experts

00:35:19.360 on a few

00:35:19.860 occasions

00:35:20.340 he hasn't

00:35:21.620 been wrong

00:35:22.060 yet.

00:35:23.840 I'm just

00:35:24.560 putting that

00:35:24.980 out there.

00:35:26.560 Rand Paul

00:35:27.360 if you're

00:35:27.960 paying attention

00:35:29.160 to who is

00:35:30.360 making predictions

00:35:31.340 and statements

00:35:32.180 in public

00:35:32.760 about important

00:35:33.640 things

00:35:34.100 you want to

00:35:35.280 keep track

00:35:36.000 of your

00:35:37.160 track record

00:35:37.860 right?

00:35:38.240 That's why I

00:35:38.840 tell you you

00:35:39.300 should make

00:35:39.660 your predictions

00:35:40.180 in public

00:35:40.780 and then go

00:35:41.920 check them

00:35:42.760 later.

00:35:44.480 I'm just

00:35:45.360 saying that

00:35:46.640 Rand Paul

00:35:47.280 has now

00:35:47.840 created a

00:35:48.960 let's say

00:35:50.940 a history

00:35:51.500 of being

00:35:53.200 far superior

00:35:54.200 in predicting

00:35:55.120 and understanding

00:35:56.020 the world

00:35:56.580 compared to

00:35:57.620 the experts

00:35:58.300 in the field.

00:35:58.880 Now he's

00:35:59.260 got a

00:36:00.960 physician's

00:36:02.760 background

00:36:03.820 so that's

00:36:04.620 not the

00:36:04.980 biggest surprise

00:36:05.980 in the world

00:36:06.540 because he's

00:36:07.520 got credentials.

00:36:09.580 But keep

00:36:10.080 that in mind

00:36:10.720 right?

00:36:11.360 If there's

00:36:11.780 somebody who

00:36:12.380 continues to

00:36:13.600 be right

00:36:14.160 time after

00:36:14.900 time and

00:36:16.080 there is

00:36:16.560 another class

00:36:17.360 that continues

00:36:17.960 to be wrong

00:36:18.920 half the time

00:36:20.360 keep that in

00:36:22.080 mind.

00:36:23.480 All right.

00:36:27.280 I saw

00:36:28.220 Kyle

00:36:28.680 Kashuv

00:36:29.500 tweeting

00:36:30.780 this.

00:36:31.800 Will

00:36:31.960 Kaepernick

00:36:33.160 denounce

00:36:34.300 Nike for

00:36:35.020 using slave

00:36:35.800 labor?

00:36:36.560 Now I don't

00:36:36.840 know is there

00:36:37.200 a new story?

00:36:38.540 I looked I

00:36:39.120 didn't see it

00:36:39.600 in the headlines.

00:36:40.200 Is there

00:36:40.920 some kind

00:36:41.820 of new

00:36:42.200 story about

00:36:42.880 Nike and

00:36:43.620 slave labor?

00:36:44.800 It's a good

00:36:45.320 question even

00:36:46.380 if it's not

00:36:46.920 a new

00:36:47.260 story.

00:36:48.400 Doesn't

00:36:48.720 Nike

00:36:49.080 maybe use

00:36:51.900 some China

00:36:52.400 labor that's

00:36:53.180 a little

00:36:53.540 sketchy?

00:36:54.540 Are there

00:36:54.860 any Uyghurs

00:36:55.720 making Nike

00:36:57.480 stuff?

00:36:58.120 I don't know.

00:36:58.720 Are there?

00:36:59.720 Does anybody

00:37:00.280 know?

00:37:00.860 Would anybody

00:37:01.580 know?

00:37:02.120 Would Nike

00:37:02.600 even know?

00:37:03.260 I don't know

00:37:03.660 if anybody

00:37:04.000 knows that

00:37:04.420 stuff.

00:37:04.660 But it's

00:37:05.800 a good

00:37:06.020 question.

00:37:07.220 How can

00:37:07.600 Kaepernick

00:37:08.240 support Nike

00:37:09.700 if it's

00:37:10.680 true?

00:37:11.460 And I'm

00:37:11.800 not making

00:37:12.240 this

00:37:12.480 allegation.

00:37:13.600 So I'm

00:37:13.880 asking you

00:37:14.440 if there's

00:37:14.760 some news

00:37:15.180 about it

00:37:15.580 that I

00:37:15.800 haven't

00:37:15.960 seen.

00:37:17.500 All right.

00:37:18.520 Forget about

00:37:19.080 that.

00:37:20.560 Geraldo

00:37:21.120 Rivera was

00:37:22.220 tweeting that

00:37:22.860 the president

00:37:23.460 is allowing

00:37:25.000 some stuff

00:37:25.760 to be moved

00:37:26.500 already from

00:37:27.520 the White

00:37:27.980 House.

00:37:28.380 Some stuff

00:37:28.820 being moved

00:37:29.320 in.

00:37:30.160 Some stuff

00:37:30.740 being moved

00:37:31.220 out.

00:37:31.480 I don't

00:37:32.220 quite understand

00:37:33.060 why it's

00:37:33.440 happening now

00:37:34.080 though.

00:37:34.920 Doesn't that

00:37:35.360 seem too

00:37:35.760 early?

00:37:36.920 How do

00:37:37.160 you run

00:37:37.520 the government

00:37:38.080 between now

00:37:38.940 and inauguration

00:37:40.700 if people

00:37:41.780 are moving

00:37:42.160 their stuff

00:37:42.740 out of the

00:37:43.800 White

00:37:44.200 House?

00:37:44.960 I don't

00:37:45.100 know.

00:37:45.680 But at

00:37:46.040 least it

00:37:46.400 shows that

00:37:46.880 the president

00:37:47.360 has every

00:37:48.100 intention of

00:37:49.440 a peaceful

00:37:50.260 transition

00:37:50.900 assuming the

00:37:51.660 process plays

00:37:52.440 out that

00:37:52.760 way.

00:37:55.480 Speaking of

00:37:56.240 Rasmussen,

00:37:57.320 they say that

00:37:57.900 almost half,

00:37:58.680 47 percent,

00:37:59.840 of U.S.

00:38:01.340 likely voters

00:38:02.260 now believe

00:38:04.080 there was

00:38:04.420 enough fraud

00:38:05.000 to ensure

00:38:05.520 Biden would

00:38:06.160 win.

00:38:07.420 47 percent

00:38:08.680 of the

00:38:10.240 country

00:38:10.600 believes that

00:38:12.000 the election

00:38:12.500 was fraudulent

00:38:14.340 and fraudulent

00:38:15.640 enough to

00:38:17.140 change the

00:38:17.580 outcome.

00:38:19.460 That includes

00:38:20.620 75 percent

00:38:21.640 of Republicans

00:38:22.240 and 30

00:38:22.980 percent of

00:38:23.600 Democrats,

00:38:24.540 which is

00:38:25.140 really the

00:38:25.560 surprising

00:38:26.000 part.

00:38:26.700 If you

00:38:27.140 told me

00:38:27.580 in advance

00:38:28.240 47 percent

00:38:29.260 of likely

00:38:31.040 voters

00:38:31.520 thought it

00:38:32.160 was fraudulent,

00:38:32.880 I would

00:38:33.120 have said,

00:38:33.560 oh,

00:38:33.840 big deal.

00:38:35.340 47 percent,

00:38:36.640 isn't that

00:38:37.180 coincidentally

00:38:38.180 the same

00:38:38.740 number of

00:38:39.400 Republicans?

00:38:41.040 You know,

00:38:41.520 surprise,

00:38:42.460 all Republicans

00:38:43.300 are on one

00:38:43.960 side and all

00:38:44.680 Democrats are

00:38:45.400 on the other

00:38:45.840 side.

00:38:46.180 Surprise.

00:38:47.760 But that's

00:38:48.200 not the

00:38:48.640 surprise.

00:38:49.420 The surprise

00:38:49.920 is that only

00:38:51.200 75 percent

00:38:52.200 of Republicans

00:38:53.000 think this

00:38:53.660 election was

00:38:54.260 fraudulent.

00:38:55.620 Who are

00:38:56.200 those other

00:38:56.660 25 percent?

00:38:57.520 who are

00:38:59.060 the 25

00:38:59.660 percent of

00:39:00.240 Republicans

00:39:00.720 who think

00:39:01.220 this was

00:39:01.620 a fair

00:39:01.960 election?

00:39:03.200 I haven't

00:39:03.780 met one

00:39:04.220 yet.

00:39:04.920 Have you?

00:39:05.920 Have you

00:39:06.500 met a

00:39:07.040 Republican

00:39:07.760 who thought

00:39:08.280 it was a

00:39:08.700 fair election?

00:39:09.500 I know

00:39:09.860 they exist

00:39:10.560 because I've

00:39:11.500 seen some

00:39:12.000 people writing

00:39:13.120 about it,

00:39:13.760 et cetera,

00:39:14.680 but I haven't

00:39:15.260 met one.

00:39:16.580 So 25

00:39:17.380 percent seems

00:39:18.060 like a

00:39:18.800 surprising

00:39:19.320 number to

00:39:19.900 me.

00:39:20.260 Could be.

00:39:21.240 Not

00:39:21.560 impossible,

00:39:22.440 just surprises

00:39:23.080 me.

00:39:23.660 But 30

00:39:24.280 percent of

00:39:24.760 Democrats

00:39:25.260 think the

00:39:25.880 election was

00:39:26.420 stolen.

00:39:28.620 That's the

00:39:29.440 surprising

00:39:29.840 number.

00:39:30.760 30 percent

00:39:31.420 of Democrats.

00:39:32.500 So here's

00:39:33.580 my question

00:39:34.120 to you.

00:39:34.640 The House

00:39:34.980 of Representatives,

00:39:36.900 they represent

00:39:38.240 the people.

00:39:39.860 The House

00:39:40.280 of Representatives,

00:39:41.240 they have an

00:39:41.660 obligation to

00:39:42.460 the law and

00:39:43.320 the Constitution,

00:39:44.420 of course.

00:39:45.420 But their

00:39:46.020 highest obligation

00:39:46.720 is to the

00:39:47.880 people and

00:39:48.860 the Republic.

00:39:50.060 If you are

00:39:50.900 the Republicans

00:39:51.860 in the House,

00:39:53.360 are you going

00:39:54.000 to accept

00:39:55.000 an Electoral

00:39:55.840 College

00:39:56.340 result in

00:39:57.520 which 47

00:39:58.400 percent of

00:39:59.480 the likely

00:39:59.980 voters believe

00:40:02.280 there was

00:40:02.840 enough fraud

00:40:03.500 to change

00:40:04.180 the election

00:40:05.000 outcome?

00:40:06.360 Can you

00:40:06.740 do that?

00:40:07.760 I would

00:40:08.400 say that

00:40:08.760 the President

00:40:09.260 has now

00:40:09.900 created a

00:40:10.740 situation in

00:40:11.600 which he

00:40:11.920 has an

00:40:12.760 unobstructed

00:40:13.620 path to

00:40:14.220 the Presidency.

00:40:15.380 What will

00:40:16.180 change that,

00:40:17.020 or what

00:40:17.460 would be the

00:40:18.080 obstruction,

00:40:18.680 I guess,

00:40:19.460 is not

00:40:20.080 the law

00:40:21.280 and not

00:40:21.800 public opinion

00:40:22.540 and not

00:40:23.340 that the

00:40:24.000 process or

00:40:24.700 the system

00:40:25.240 has steps

00:40:26.440 to allow

00:40:27.040 it to

00:40:27.340 happen.

00:40:28.320 The part

00:40:28.860 that will

00:40:29.340 derail this,

00:40:30.440 if it gets

00:40:31.020 derailed,

00:40:32.060 is that I

00:40:33.160 believe the

00:40:33.720 courts will

00:40:35.640 not want to

00:40:36.400 rock the

00:40:36.940 boat.

00:40:38.040 Meaning I

00:40:38.760 think the

00:40:39.160 court will

00:40:39.620 find some

00:40:40.300 reason,

00:40:41.160 because they

00:40:41.520 can always

00:40:41.840 find a

00:40:42.180 reason,

00:40:43.280 to put

00:40:44.540 Biden in

00:40:45.160 office even

00:40:45.920 though they

00:40:46.380 don't believe

00:40:47.000 he won,

00:40:48.080 or that the

00:40:48.660 evidence doesn't

00:40:49.440 prove he won,

00:40:50.240 or that they're

00:40:51.160 not confident in

00:40:52.120 the outcome.

00:40:53.580 But I think

00:40:53.960 they'll just

00:40:54.380 go for

00:40:54.840 stability over,

00:40:56.840 I think you'll

00:40:57.420 see the

00:40:57.900 courts go for

00:40:58.580 stability over

00:41:00.100 technical

00:41:01.500 accuracy.

00:41:06.580 I made an

00:41:07.520 accusation on

00:41:08.440 Twitter that I'm

00:41:09.200 going to stay

00:41:09.780 with, and I'll

00:41:11.580 tell you why.

00:41:12.520 I made the

00:41:13.180 prediction that

00:41:14.120 the reason that

00:41:14.740 we don't already

00:41:15.540 have cheap,

00:41:16.580 rapid tests that

00:41:17.540 you can do at

00:41:18.160 home, do you

00:41:19.260 know, by now,

00:41:21.100 in almost

00:41:22.880 December, that

00:41:24.740 we don't have

00:41:25.460 these rapid

00:41:26.060 test strips that

00:41:27.120 you can just go

00:41:27.820 to the CVS, go

00:41:29.120 to the drugstore,

00:41:30.720 buy a dozen of

00:41:31.760 them for 20

00:41:32.380 bucks, test

00:41:33.460 yourself as much

00:41:34.240 as you want,

00:41:35.260 okay, maybe it's

00:41:36.080 not the most

00:41:36.560 accurate test, but

00:41:37.540 you've got 12

00:41:38.120 of them, so you

00:41:39.220 can test yourself

00:41:40.020 every day,

00:41:41.060 sometimes it

00:41:41.700 works, sometimes

00:41:42.260 it doesn't, but

00:41:42.940 if you have it,

00:41:44.200 if you've got the

00:41:44.960 virus, and you

00:41:46.320 test yourself 12

00:41:47.220 times, you're

00:41:48.420 probably going to

00:41:49.040 catch it sooner

00:41:50.000 than if you

00:41:50.580 didn't have the

00:41:51.080 test kits, so

00:41:52.580 the idea is

00:41:54.520 perfectly sound,

00:41:56.360 the technology

00:41:57.200 apparently is

00:41:58.020 very doable, you

00:41:59.460 can make these

00:42:00.160 in the lab, it's

00:42:01.060 not that hard, and

00:42:02.440 I'm told that the

00:42:03.180 reason we don't

00:42:03.880 have these yet is

00:42:06.320 that the FDA

00:42:07.160 requires every

00:42:08.180 test to meet

00:42:09.300 medical device

00:42:10.580 specifications, so

00:42:12.980 in other words,

00:42:13.600 there's some high

00:42:14.280 hurdles that the

00:42:16.400 people who could

00:42:17.320 easily make these

00:42:18.200 inexpensive, but

00:42:19.700 not that accurate,

00:42:20.680 tests, they can't

00:42:22.340 meet these

00:42:22.720 hurdles, and

00:42:23.220 here's one of

00:42:23.720 them, an

00:42:25.480 example of the

00:42:26.220 hurdles, is that

00:42:27.720 you need to

00:42:28.260 separately qualify a

00:42:29.620 rapid antigen

00:42:30.500 test for both

00:42:31.440 symptomatic and

00:42:32.360 asymptomatic, and

00:42:33.700 it's hard to do

00:42:34.560 some testing of

00:42:36.960 asymptomatic people

00:42:38.340 because you don't

00:42:39.660 know who to

00:42:40.260 test, you would

00:42:41.940 have to sort of

00:42:42.700 blindly just test

00:42:44.660 thousands of

00:42:45.760 people and hope

00:42:46.880 there were some

00:42:47.440 asymptomatic people

00:42:48.500 in that group, so

00:42:49.080 it's hard to

00:42:49.500 test, but we

00:42:52.620 live in a world

00:42:53.280 in which the

00:42:53.940 Trump administration

00:42:54.760 is willing to

00:42:56.180 remove any

00:42:57.360 regulation or

00:42:59.400 rule that gets

00:43:01.060 in the way of

00:43:01.700 solving the

00:43:02.200 pandemic.

00:43:03.180 You saw the

00:43:04.140 Trump administration

00:43:04.920 do it lots of

00:43:06.260 times, right?

00:43:07.100 Oh, that's

00:43:07.700 stopping us from

00:43:08.380 getting there?

00:43:08.820 We'll get rid of

00:43:09.380 that rule.

00:43:10.540 You can't have

00:43:11.480 some rule against

00:43:13.040 telemedicine across

00:43:15.260 state lines?

00:43:16.780 That's stupid.

00:43:17.900 Get rid of that

00:43:18.480 rule.

00:43:19.300 So we know that

00:43:20.120 the Trump

00:43:20.600 administration can

00:43:21.520 get rid of

00:43:22.160 rules if it

00:43:24.520 makes sense to

00:43:25.240 do so.

00:43:26.360 Full transparency,

00:43:27.760 right?

00:43:27.940 They're doing it

00:43:28.400 right in front of

00:43:28.940 the public,

00:43:29.800 saying, yes, this

00:43:30.640 rule doesn't make

00:43:31.400 sense anymore in a

00:43:33.000 pandemic.

00:43:33.680 We're just going to

00:43:34.160 get rid of it.

00:43:35.160 That's what happened

00:43:35.920 with telehealth across

00:43:37.000 state lines.

00:43:37.800 Didn't make sense,

00:43:38.960 so they just got

00:43:39.460 rid of it.

00:43:40.640 Could the Trump

00:43:41.840 administration

00:43:42.540 recognize this

00:43:43.840 problem and just

00:43:45.640 get rid of those

00:43:46.940 requirements and

00:43:48.400 just say, okay,

00:43:49.740 okay, these are

00:43:50.400 not really medical

00:43:51.940 test devices.

00:43:53.660 Just put a label

00:43:54.700 on it that says

00:43:55.700 it's only 80%

00:43:56.780 effective or

00:43:57.600 whatever they are

00:43:58.400 and we're good.

00:44:00.540 Just put the label

00:44:02.080 on it that says

00:44:02.800 what it is and

00:44:03.540 what it isn't and

00:44:05.540 just go ahead and

00:44:06.240 make them.

00:44:07.780 Do you think that

00:44:08.640 the FDA could do

00:44:11.300 that or the

00:44:12.200 government in

00:44:12.780 general, let's say,

00:44:13.500 working with the

00:44:14.160 FDA?

00:44:14.400 Do you think

00:44:15.180 they could do

00:44:15.900 that and that

00:44:17.920 they understand

00:44:18.720 the argument?

00:44:20.220 Now, those of you

00:44:20.980 who are saying,

00:44:21.580 but wait, if it's

00:44:22.240 only 80% accurate,

00:44:23.560 that's no good.

00:44:24.620 I don't know what

00:44:25.140 the real number is,

00:44:25.940 but let's use that.

00:44:27.160 To which I say,

00:44:28.240 then you don't

00:44:28.660 understand the

00:44:29.340 argument.

00:44:30.540 The argument is

00:44:31.460 if you've got a

00:44:32.360 cupboard full of

00:44:34.040 cheap tests,

00:44:35.400 it doesn't matter

00:44:36.500 if they're only

00:44:37.700 80% effective

00:44:38.800 because you can do

00:44:40.080 one every day.

00:44:41.200 If it didn't work

00:44:42.140 on Tuesday,

00:44:43.000 well, there's a

00:44:43.880 pretty good chance

00:44:44.480 it'll catch it on

00:44:45.180 Wednesday and you

00:44:46.540 still got it faster

00:44:47.720 than if you didn't

00:44:49.180 know you had it

00:44:49.940 and you weren't

00:44:50.900 testing at all

00:44:51.600 because you don't

00:44:52.320 have any symptoms.

00:44:53.740 So, could the

00:44:55.720 government understand

00:44:56.740 the argument,

00:44:57.760 agree with the

00:44:58.460 argument, and

00:44:59.200 change the rules

00:45:00.220 fairly easily so

00:45:01.900 the industry,

00:45:02.840 which knows how

00:45:03.380 to make these

00:45:03.960 test strips,

00:45:04.640 could just start

00:45:05.240 making them and

00:45:06.520 just put a warning

00:45:07.320 label on it so you

00:45:08.260 know what you're

00:45:08.720 getting?

00:45:08.900 Okay, what is

00:45:10.840 the obstacle to

00:45:12.560 this happening?

00:45:13.440 Now, there have

00:45:14.380 been articles in

00:45:15.400 major publications

00:45:16.540 including Time

00:45:17.680 Magazine where

00:45:18.940 Michael Mina

00:45:19.680 explains, you

00:45:21.120 know, he's an

00:45:21.620 expert in this

00:45:22.300 area and he

00:45:22.840 explains why this

00:45:24.240 is a good thing

00:45:24.880 and why it can

00:45:25.620 be done and

00:45:26.260 why you could

00:45:27.440 basically crush

00:45:28.480 coronavirus by

00:45:29.480 Christmas if we

00:45:31.060 did it.

00:45:32.640 Do you think?

00:45:33.620 Now, here's why

00:45:34.880 I say that the

00:45:36.280 most likely

00:45:36.980 explanation for

00:45:38.020 why we haven't

00:45:38.880 done this

00:45:40.160 thing which,

00:45:41.320 as I explained

00:45:42.160 it, sounds like

00:45:42.960 we obviously

00:45:43.600 should have

00:45:44.120 done it.

00:45:45.160 What is the

00:45:46.100 reason we

00:45:46.820 didn't do it

00:45:47.520 if we know

00:45:48.900 that removing

00:45:50.460 rules and

00:45:52.380 regulations,

00:45:54.900 we know we

00:45:55.600 can do that?

00:45:56.780 What would be

00:45:57.340 the reason?

00:45:59.600 I don't know

00:46:00.520 the reason,

00:46:01.780 but I'll tell

00:46:02.320 you this.

00:46:03.200 If we, the

00:46:04.460 public, had been

00:46:05.240 presented with a

00:46:06.260 good argument

00:46:07.120 which says,

00:46:08.560 yes, we have

00:46:09.160 these rules that

00:46:10.800 make it hard to

00:46:11.500 do, but we

00:46:12.600 need to keep

00:46:13.200 these rules and

00:46:14.460 here's my

00:46:14.960 reason.

00:46:15.960 If I heard the

00:46:16.940 argument, even

00:46:19.020 if I didn't agree

00:46:19.920 with it necessarily,

00:46:20.980 I would say to

00:46:21.440 myself, oh, well,

00:46:23.260 it could be

00:46:23.840 incompetence or it

00:46:25.080 could be my

00:46:25.620 incompetence.

00:46:26.800 It could be that I

00:46:27.680 thought it was a

00:46:28.200 good idea, but

00:46:29.500 these smart

00:46:30.360 professionals looked

00:46:31.420 at it and said

00:46:31.940 it wasn't.

00:46:32.440 But the good

00:46:33.360 news is they

00:46:34.720 communicated.

00:46:36.200 Here's the key

00:46:37.060 point.

00:46:37.880 They communicated.

00:46:39.620 It was an

00:46:40.160 important idea

00:46:41.520 that was raised

00:46:42.460 by professionals

00:46:43.380 reported in

00:46:44.680 major publications.

00:46:46.360 Doesn't your

00:46:46.820 government need

00:46:47.400 to report to

00:46:48.080 you what they

00:46:49.100 think of this

00:46:49.660 important idea

00:46:50.420 that could end

00:46:50.960 the pandemic?

00:46:52.280 Do you think

00:46:53.140 that your

00:46:53.580 government can

00:46:54.580 just ignore an

00:46:57.040 idea for ending

00:46:58.020 the pandemic by

00:46:59.400 December?

00:46:59.840 just ignore

00:47:02.600 it?

00:47:04.200 Because they

00:47:04.820 know it, right?

00:47:05.880 They've heard it.

00:47:07.140 There's no question

00:47:07.940 that the

00:47:08.300 administration has

00:47:09.020 heard the idea,

00:47:10.360 but if you heard

00:47:11.400 why they're not

00:47:12.020 doing it, have

00:47:13.180 they ever

00:47:13.540 announced, thank

00:47:14.860 you for this

00:47:15.380 idea, we've

00:47:16.220 looked into it,

00:47:17.520 this is why we're

00:47:18.320 not doing it?

00:47:20.340 No, you

00:47:21.340 haven't, at

00:47:23.020 least as far as

00:47:23.640 I know, and

00:47:24.380 I've been tracking

00:47:25.260 this and I

00:47:25.920 haven't seen it.

00:47:27.120 And so, I

00:47:28.440 take the only

00:47:29.640 assumption that

00:47:30.380 you can, given

00:47:31.660 this set of

00:47:32.280 facts, something

00:47:34.620 criminal is

00:47:35.500 happening.

00:47:36.420 Something fraudulent

00:47:38.000 or criminal,

00:47:39.660 there's either a

00:47:40.460 bribe or

00:47:41.400 somebody has a

00:47:42.100 job lined up

00:47:43.020 after this

00:47:43.580 administration, or

00:47:45.300 they sit on a

00:47:46.980 board of some

00:47:47.700 pharmaceutical company

00:47:48.880 that would be

00:47:49.460 harmed by doing

00:47:51.280 this, or

00:47:52.660 something.

00:47:53.960 There's something

00:47:55.000 happening here

00:47:55.840 that screams a

00:47:57.780 fraud.

00:47:58.180 fraud.

00:47:59.920 And until it's

00:48:00.920 explained to us,

00:48:01.820 the public, I

00:48:03.360 believe that it is

00:48:04.280 both right and

00:48:06.460 rational to assume

00:48:08.300 that the Trump

00:48:08.900 administration is

00:48:10.180 engaged in, and I

00:48:12.040 don't mean Trump

00:48:12.660 himself, I doubt

00:48:13.720 he's in the details

00:48:15.020 of this topic, but

00:48:16.400 somewhere in the

00:48:17.160 administration, it

00:48:18.700 seems to me there's

00:48:19.600 a screaming red flag

00:48:21.340 for massive,

00:48:23.440 criminal-like, but

00:48:25.220 maybe legal,

00:48:26.960 corruption.

00:48:29.460 So, for those

00:48:31.620 of you who have

00:48:32.320 been bothering me

00:48:33.340 for years and

00:48:34.400 saying, why

00:48:35.460 don't you ever

00:48:36.260 criticize the

00:48:38.640 Trump administration?

00:48:40.500 Why do you only

00:48:41.200 say good things?

00:48:42.360 I don't.

00:48:44.120 This is a pretty

00:48:45.080 good example.

00:48:46.180 I'm accusing them

00:48:47.420 in public of

00:48:48.640 massive, probable

00:48:50.620 fraud, or something

00:48:52.800 that's close enough

00:48:53.680 to fraud, whether

00:48:54.460 it's technically

00:48:55.160 illegal, that it

00:48:56.500 should be stopped,

00:48:58.620 whatever it is.

00:49:00.140 Now, do I think

00:49:01.100 somebody mentioned

00:49:01.920 Pence.

00:49:02.540 Do I think that

00:49:03.420 Pence is

00:49:03.980 compromised?

00:49:04.760 No.

00:49:05.820 No, I don't.

00:49:06.800 Do I think that

00:49:07.480 Trump knows the

00:49:08.920 details of what I

00:49:10.040 just described?

00:49:11.180 Nope.

00:49:12.220 I don't.

00:49:13.220 He would know

00:49:13.760 what the FDA tells

00:49:14.800 him, probably.

00:49:16.160 So I don't blame

00:49:16.920 Trump specifically,

00:49:18.200 except that the

00:49:18.980 boss always takes

00:49:20.440 the responsibility.

00:49:21.140 All right, here's

00:49:23.960 a little experiment

00:49:24.600 for you if you

00:49:25.400 really want to

00:49:25.940 get into some

00:49:27.580 conspiracy theory

00:49:29.420 stuff on climate

00:49:30.920 change.

00:49:32.960 Here would be a

00:49:33.840 little experiment

00:49:34.580 that I don't think

00:49:35.820 anybody will do,

00:49:36.600 but it would be

00:49:36.980 fascinating.

00:49:38.020 Start recording

00:49:38.920 the difference

00:49:39.740 between the

00:49:41.520 temperature at your

00:49:42.520 house on the

00:49:44.100 mercury thermometer

00:49:45.480 that's just always

00:49:46.460 in the same place

00:49:47.280 around your house,

00:49:48.040 outdoors, and

00:49:50.200 what your phone

00:49:51.620 tells you is the

00:49:52.500 temperature.

00:49:53.100 You know, if you

00:49:53.500 ask your digital

00:49:54.320 device or you

00:49:55.100 check your computer,

00:49:56.580 what's the

00:49:57.120 temperature in my

00:49:57.920 town?

00:49:58.620 Now, your specific

00:49:59.700 house and the

00:50:00.640 placement of your

00:50:01.480 specific thermometer

00:50:02.720 doesn't mean that's

00:50:04.280 going to match the

00:50:05.540 official temperature

00:50:07.060 of your town,

00:50:07.860 probably off a

00:50:08.780 degree or two,

00:50:09.640 you know, at

00:50:10.120 least.

00:50:10.680 So you start

00:50:11.400 measuring the

00:50:12.600 difference.

00:50:14.360 And don't worry

00:50:15.120 that they're a

00:50:15.680 little bit different

00:50:16.380 because one is an

00:50:17.420 average and one is

00:50:18.860 your specific

00:50:19.820 thermometer.

00:50:21.060 And then start

00:50:22.020 measuring them for

00:50:23.220 years every day

00:50:24.740 and see if that

00:50:26.180 difference starts

00:50:27.920 to increase.

00:50:30.060 So that's the

00:50:31.180 conspiracy theory

00:50:32.180 part.

00:50:32.840 Because the

00:50:33.980 temperature that

00:50:34.640 you get from

00:50:35.640 your digital

00:50:36.400 device goes

00:50:37.420 through some

00:50:38.120 common database

00:50:39.980 that has some

00:50:40.640 official, you

00:50:42.420 know, officialness

00:50:43.360 on it, right?

00:50:44.520 Whereas your

00:50:45.480 mercury thermometer

00:50:47.500 that's outside on

00:50:48.900 the corner of

00:50:49.440 your house is

00:50:50.760 just you looking

00:50:51.480 at the

00:50:51.800 thermometer.

00:50:52.820 So your

00:50:53.200 mercury thermometer

00:50:54.200 probably won't

00:50:55.540 change physically

00:50:56.800 and it can't be

00:50:58.520 influenced by

00:50:59.380 politics.

00:51:00.700 But the

00:51:01.580 official reported

00:51:03.340 numbers can be

00:51:05.360 influenced by

00:51:06.180 politics.

00:51:07.980 And so if you

00:51:09.160 saw that the

00:51:10.380 computer reported

00:51:13.120 number is

00:51:14.260 climbing higher

00:51:15.080 and your

00:51:16.660 temperature on

00:51:17.800 your house is

00:51:18.620 not 10 years

00:51:20.580 from now, you

00:51:22.440 would have

00:51:22.780 detected maybe a

00:51:25.280 little bit of

00:51:25.720 bias in the

00:51:26.440 official reporting.

00:51:28.000 Don't know.

00:51:28.940 I'm just saying

00:51:29.540 that that would be

00:51:34.040 something that I'd

00:51:34.620 want to keep an

00:51:35.140 eye on.

00:51:35.440 All right, I'm

00:51:38.360 going to close

00:51:38.760 out with my

00:51:39.360 idea of where

00:51:40.480 building homes is

00:51:43.740 going to be in

00:51:44.280 the future.

00:51:44.840 You've seen

00:51:45.420 probably videos

00:51:46.920 of 3D printed

00:51:48.920 homes.

00:51:49.540 It's like a

00:51:49.980 giant 3D arm

00:51:51.400 that they put in

00:51:52.580 the middle and

00:51:53.480 then it just

00:51:53.960 swirls around and

00:51:54.840 it prints sort of

00:51:56.180 this like fake

00:51:57.100 concrete wall and

00:51:59.280 makes a house.

00:52:00.080 I don't believe

00:52:00.980 that's the future.

00:52:01.780 I don't believe

00:52:03.620 that a 3D

00:52:05.320 printed house

00:52:06.380 can ever work

00:52:07.880 because you have

00:52:08.820 too many reasons

00:52:09.780 to want to

00:52:10.600 change your

00:52:11.480 house.

00:52:12.220 You know, you

00:52:12.460 want to add a

00:52:13.080 window, knock

00:52:14.220 down a wall,

00:52:15.040 etc.

00:52:15.480 And it looks

00:52:16.220 like once these

00:52:17.080 3D printed houses

00:52:18.280 are built, it

00:52:19.680 would be pretty

00:52:20.280 messy to change

00:52:22.060 a wall or add

00:52:23.300 a door or any

00:52:24.140 of that stuff.

00:52:24.880 And that happens

00:52:25.580 so much that I

00:52:27.540 think it's just

00:52:28.040 impractical to

00:52:29.000 just print a

00:52:30.060 house.

00:52:30.340 But here's what

00:52:31.640 I think will

00:52:31.980 happen instead.

00:52:33.440 The 3D printer

00:52:34.420 or printers will

00:52:35.660 be put in the

00:52:36.400 middle of what

00:52:37.080 will be a

00:52:37.760 housing development

00:52:38.680 and it will

00:52:40.240 print the parts

00:52:41.460 as needed to

00:52:43.620 build.

00:52:44.340 But those parts

00:52:45.380 will be

00:52:46.120 smallish and

00:52:47.920 one person can

00:52:48.820 pick them up

00:52:49.560 and snap it

00:52:50.820 together.

00:52:51.560 And it would

00:52:52.340 snap together

00:52:53.100 in a Lego-like

00:52:54.800 way so that

00:52:56.320 your homeowner

00:52:57.120 could build

00:52:57.760 their own home

00:52:58.620 just going over

00:52:59.780 to the central

00:53:00.580 3D printer.

00:53:02.000 So you wake

00:53:02.480 up in the

00:53:02.860 morning, the

00:53:03.560 printer's been

00:53:04.260 going all night

00:53:05.080 and when you

00:53:05.980 go to work in

00:53:06.540 the morning

00:53:06.860 there's a new

00:53:07.380 pile of parts.

00:53:09.340 And these parts

00:53:10.060 are exactly the

00:53:11.220 ones you need

00:53:11.940 next.

00:53:13.280 So it's not

00:53:14.020 the ones that

00:53:14.860 you store until

00:53:15.640 you need them,

00:53:16.620 they're the

00:53:16.920 ones you need

00:53:17.300 today and

00:53:18.160 that's the

00:53:18.480 only thing

00:53:18.900 that got

00:53:19.180 printed.

00:53:20.240 And the

00:53:20.700 instructions come

00:53:21.660 with them.

00:53:22.580 And you walk

00:53:23.040 in and you say

00:53:23.440 okay, this

00:53:24.480 block is for

00:53:25.340 the west wall

00:53:26.220 and when you

00:53:27.700 go three blocks

00:53:28.580 up, replace

00:53:29.820 that one with

00:53:30.580 the special

00:53:31.380 blocks that

00:53:32.120 have conduit

00:53:32.900 for the

00:53:33.320 electrical.

00:53:34.360 And you go

00:53:34.740 oh, okay,

00:53:35.720 show me the

00:53:36.440 YouTube video.

00:53:37.540 You look at it

00:53:38.140 for about 10

00:53:38.700 seconds.

00:53:39.200 You go, okay,

00:53:39.780 west wall,

00:53:41.180 dump, boom,

00:53:41.920 and you walk

00:53:42.300 over and you

00:53:42.740 just do,

00:53:43.260 do, do, do,

00:53:43.960 and that's

00:53:44.480 what you do

00:53:45.000 today.

00:53:45.320 Now, could a

00:53:47.120 3D printer print

00:53:48.460 your doorknobs?

00:53:50.960 Yes.

00:53:51.860 Could a 3D printer

00:53:53.080 print your metal

00:53:55.080 faucets?

00:53:56.960 Yes.

00:53:58.260 Could a 3D

00:53:59.500 printer print

00:54:00.360 every single

00:54:01.780 part of your

00:54:02.420 house separately

00:54:04.460 that you could

00:54:05.280 snap them

00:54:05.920 together without

00:54:06.700 cutting and

00:54:07.860 without using a

00:54:08.900 hammer to nail

00:54:09.900 anything?

00:54:11.100 I think yes.

00:54:12.800 Now, if the

00:54:13.840 houses that were

00:54:14.480 built were

00:54:15.660 pre-designed from

00:54:17.260 a certain set of

00:54:18.260 homes that

00:54:19.360 engineers and

00:54:20.380 architects had

00:54:21.040 already, you

00:54:21.800 know, tested and

00:54:22.740 vetted and it

00:54:23.380 would pass

00:54:23.760 everything, then

00:54:25.040 how hard is it

00:54:25.940 to get it

00:54:26.760 built?

00:54:27.960 I feel as

00:54:28.940 though, somebody

00:54:29.980 says you would

00:54:30.500 need a different

00:54:31.260 3D printer.

00:54:32.160 I think that's

00:54:32.600 right.

00:54:33.200 So you might

00:54:33.600 need like a

00:54:34.340 one that does

00:54:35.840 one kind of

00:54:36.920 material, say

00:54:38.600 metal, and

00:54:39.840 another one that

00:54:40.460 does the wall

00:54:41.240 material, etc.

00:54:43.920 All right, so

00:54:45.120 this is my

00:54:46.780 suggestion.

00:54:47.520 And then once

00:54:47.980 your community

00:54:48.580 has been built

00:54:49.320 out, you take

00:54:50.460 those several

00:54:51.480 3D printers and

00:54:53.120 you move them to

00:54:53.800 a new community

00:54:54.460 and you just

00:54:54.980 start again.

00:55:00.240 Yeah, different

00:55:01.060 nozzles for

00:55:01.760 different materials,

00:55:02.800 right?

00:55:03.360 Now, I saw and

00:55:04.480 I tweeted this

00:55:05.180 around a new

00:55:06.820 3D printer that

00:55:08.660 is so cool it

00:55:09.940 blew my mind.

00:55:11.200 And I'm going to

00:55:11.760 describe it for

00:55:12.600 you.

00:55:13.280 So let's say you

00:55:14.160 had an object and

00:55:15.620 you wanted to

00:55:16.180 print a duplicate

00:55:17.000 of that object.

00:55:18.780 Today, your 3D

00:55:20.900 printer would, you

00:55:21.660 know, look at it

00:55:22.740 and scan it all

00:55:23.560 around and that

00:55:24.620 would start building

00:55:25.360 from the bottom

00:55:26.120 up a 3D

00:55:27.680 representation.

00:55:29.260 It could take a

00:55:29.800 long time.

00:55:30.820 There's a new

00:55:31.360 version of a 3D

00:55:32.280 printer that it's

00:55:34.340 going to make you

00:55:34.780 mad that you

00:55:35.360 didn't think of

00:55:35.940 it, where you

00:55:37.000 can take any

00:55:37.560 object and you

00:55:38.780 put it in the

00:55:39.340 3D printer, it

00:55:40.180 doesn't matter the

00:55:40.940 dimensions of the

00:55:41.880 object, it just

00:55:42.560 has to be small

00:55:43.760 enough.

00:55:44.400 You put it in your

00:55:45.060 3D printer and

00:55:46.500 then the 3D

00:55:47.140 printer, let's see

00:55:47.780 if I can do this

00:55:48.400 visually, I think

00:55:49.140 I can, drops on

00:55:51.680 top of it, a

00:55:53.200 bunch of 3D

00:55:55.540 printed goo that

00:55:57.480 goes on top of

00:55:58.440 it and because

00:55:58.980 it's goo, it

00:56:00.420 wraps around it

00:56:01.400 just because it's

00:56:02.220 sort of liquid, it

00:56:03.780 just wraps around

00:56:04.700 it and then it

00:56:06.560 creates a mold so

00:56:08.960 that now you can

00:56:09.660 just inject that

00:56:10.520 mold and you make

00:56:11.480 as many of these

00:56:12.160 as you want.

00:56:12.920 Now that would be

00:56:13.520 making something

00:56:14.240 that's only this

00:56:15.800 on the outside.

00:56:16.840 I'm not talking

00:56:17.380 about printing the

00:56:18.420 guts of what's in

00:56:19.280 here, just the

00:56:19.740 downsides, but

00:56:21.700 when you see

00:56:22.120 breakthroughs like

00:56:22.880 that, you can

00:56:24.440 imagine that you

00:56:25.340 could take one

00:56:26.040 Lego, stick it in

00:56:27.880 the machine and

00:56:28.680 have this machine

00:56:29.360 just make you

00:56:30.260 another one.

00:56:32.700 Now the other

00:56:33.440 thing that you

00:56:33.840 would want to do

00:56:34.400 in these communities

00:56:35.380 that are built by

00:56:36.340 3D printers is

00:56:37.960 make them

00:56:38.500 standardized so

00:56:40.160 that later, you

00:56:41.420 know, a year from

00:56:41.980 now when your

00:56:42.660 doorknob falls off

00:56:43.820 that you just

00:56:45.220 print another

00:56:46.020 doorknob or

00:56:46.760 there's one just

00:56:47.440 like it so you

00:56:48.700 don't have that

00:56:49.320 many options.

00:56:52.280 Yes, it's a

00:56:53.200 vacuum mold, that

00:56:54.320 is correct.

00:56:55.380 All right, that's

00:56:55.960 all for now.

00:56:57.020 I will talk to

00:56:57.640 you tomorrow.

00:57:04.180 All right,

00:57:04.880 Periscope is off

00:57:05.780 and YouTube, you're

00:57:08.440 still here with me?

00:57:13.160 That's right, it's

00:57:13.960 YouTube chat time.

00:57:14.760 Housing cost is

00:57:17.140 mainly location

00:57:18.240 value, not to

00:57:19.380 building cost.

00:57:20.520 Well, that's

00:57:20.920 certainly true, you

00:57:22.180 know, if you're in,

00:57:23.520 you're on the beach

00:57:24.680 or something, but

00:57:26.040 how much land do we

00:57:27.840 have in the United

00:57:28.620 States that you

00:57:30.200 could build if you

00:57:32.300 had good Wi-Fi,

00:57:34.280 you had water and,

00:57:35.720 you know, you could

00:57:36.160 get to an airport

00:57:37.040 and electricity and

00:57:39.540 that's all.

00:57:42.440 I mean, if you

00:57:42.940 were going to

00:57:43.280 work from home on

00:57:44.120 your computer, you

00:57:45.760 have the option of

00:57:46.520 being able to just

00:57:47.380 go somewhere where

00:57:48.240 they can build on

00:57:50.020 cheap land.

00:57:51.280 In fact, there is so

00:57:52.680 much free land in

00:57:54.520 inner cities, it's

00:57:56.840 free.

00:57:57.840 Now, you, the, the

00:58:00.100 local politicians are

00:58:01.680 crooked, so good luck

00:58:02.880 getting an effort, but

00:58:04.140 the, where Bill

00:58:05.780 Pulte has cleared off

00:58:07.260 the urban decay, there

00:58:10.780 are places that have

00:58:11.560 just been cleared and

00:58:13.100 the value of the land

00:58:15.020 is almost nothing.

00:58:16.660 So there are plenty

00:58:17.300 of places to build for

00:58:18.500 almost free in terms

00:58:20.580 of land.

00:58:24.160 How could I red

00:58:25.160 pill my wife?

00:58:26.640 I should do a special

00:58:27.920 on just, on doing

00:58:29.320 exactly that.

00:58:31.700 Why do builders make

00:58:32.820 huge houses?

00:58:33.480 Let me tell you about

00:58:34.160 builders.

00:58:34.560 So the objective of a

00:58:37.420 builder is to sell a

00:58:38.860 house.

00:58:39.640 They don't have to live

00:58:40.720 in the houses that

00:58:41.680 they sold.

00:58:42.760 So when you go to a

00:58:44.020 model home and you're

00:58:45.500 walking through it and

00:58:46.560 you're thinking, oh, I

00:58:47.420 might want to buy one

00:58:48.320 like this model, you're

00:58:50.220 not really looking at it

00:58:51.400 as critically as you

00:58:52.720 could.

00:58:53.880 You're not really asking

00:58:55.640 yourself, if I need a

00:58:57.200 broom, how far do I

00:58:58.920 have to walk?

00:59:00.320 You're just looking at

00:59:01.080 sort of the space and

00:59:02.080 the colors and the

00:59:03.000 location and stuff.

00:59:04.560 So a builder doesn't

00:59:05.660 really need to build a

00:59:06.520 house that fits your

00:59:08.260 needs.

00:59:09.160 They only need to build

00:59:10.340 a house that you want

00:59:12.080 to buy because you're

00:59:13.740 not smart enough when

00:59:15.280 you're just looking at a

00:59:16.160 house to imagine all the

00:59:18.220 ways you're using it and

00:59:19.380 all the things that can

00:59:20.260 go wrong and the

00:59:21.120 efficiencies and how

00:59:22.720 hard will it be to do

00:59:23.640 the maintenance on this

00:59:24.660 part of the house and

00:59:25.660 can you ever replace

00:59:27.040 this and does this door

00:59:28.220 open the wrong way and

00:59:29.420 all that stuff.

00:59:30.240 You just don't notice

00:59:31.340 when you're buying the

00:59:32.720 house.

00:59:32.960 So the first thing you

00:59:35.540 need to know is that

00:59:36.540 you would say to

00:59:37.460 yourself, Scott, Scott,

00:59:39.080 Scott, we've had this

00:59:40.700 free market for building

00:59:42.080 houses for, you know,

00:59:44.120 100 years or whatever.

00:59:45.860 The free market has

00:59:47.680 obviously improved homes

00:59:50.060 to the point where, you

00:59:52.020 know, people are getting

00:59:52.860 the best value that they

00:59:54.120 can from the home.

00:59:55.140 Not even close.

00:59:56.220 Nothing like that has

00:59:58.040 happened.

00:59:59.220 Not even close.

01:00:01.340 Instead, home builders have

01:00:03.660 learned what people will

01:00:05.140 buy, which is a completely

01:00:07.720 different decision from

01:00:09.540 what's the best home to

01:00:10.760 live in.

01:00:11.460 Not even close.

01:00:12.340 And you call the BS, I saw

01:00:21.560 something.

01:00:22.120 Oh, let me go back to that

01:00:23.260 comment.

01:00:25.960 There's a JHU, Ken says,

01:00:28.140 study on death rates.

01:00:30.100 I'm an actual retired guy with

01:00:32.740 an economics degree.

01:00:34.040 Okay, so you're smart.

01:00:35.620 Uh, and you called it BS

01:00:38.820 last week.

01:00:39.820 Why will you not look at

01:00:41.480 it?

01:00:42.280 Oh, uh, they're, they're

01:00:43.720 all BS.

01:00:44.720 So the reason, there are

01:00:47.420 some things that I refuse

01:00:48.800 to look at, even if

01:00:51.040 they're in a publication

01:00:52.020 and somebody serious wrote

01:00:53.840 serious wrote them, because

01:00:55.740 if it's not in mainstream

01:00:58.460 publications, there's

01:00:59.780 usually a reason.

01:01:01.000 Now, sometimes it's because

01:01:02.700 somebody's suppressing

01:01:03.600 something, but even then it

01:01:05.580 would at least be in the

01:01:06.700 other mainstream media.

01:01:08.680 So in other words, if it's

01:01:10.660 not on CNN and it's not

01:01:12.940 on Fox, then people on

01:01:15.480 the left and the right

01:01:16.540 have looked at it and

01:01:17.420 said, eh, I don't think

01:01:18.560 so.

01:01:19.340 So when you tell me that

01:01:20.840 there's this outlier study,

01:01:23.000 and I think what you're

01:01:23.880 referring to is the idea

01:01:25.820 that the net deaths did

01:01:27.800 not go up, that would be

01:01:29.780 the biggest story in the

01:01:30.840 world.

01:01:32.160 And you're telling me that

01:01:33.280 the biggest story in the

01:01:34.360 world, which was

01:01:35.560 which would completely

01:01:36.440 clear President Trump

01:01:38.700 of any bad anything, if

01:01:41.040 it looked like there was

01:01:41.760 no extra death rate at

01:01:43.220 all, that would be the

01:01:46.140 biggest story.

01:01:46.940 It would be all over Fox.

01:01:48.520 Rush would be talking

01:01:49.340 about it.

01:01:50.340 So that doesn't mean that

01:01:52.920 a brand new story won't

01:01:54.420 become the story that's in

01:01:56.020 all of those outlets.

01:01:57.100 But if it's been around a

01:02:00.260 while, and it never made

01:02:02.360 the leap, usually it's not

01:02:05.000 worth looking at.

01:02:07.620 Scott, did I build, did you

01:02:09.200 build your home?

01:02:09.800 Yes.

01:02:10.160 So I designed this home and

01:02:13.420 had a builder and an architect

01:02:15.360 work with me to get it done.

01:02:17.160 Have I considered the Great

01:02:22.220 Reset?

01:02:22.800 You know, I'm calling bullshit

01:02:23.860 on the Great Reset in terms

01:02:26.140 of it being something that

01:02:27.380 somebody planned in advance.

01:02:29.100 Have I ever tried magic

01:02:31.460 mushrooms?

01:02:32.360 Yes.

01:02:33.100 Once in my 20s, and it was

01:02:36.040 the best day of my life and

01:02:37.720 changed me forever.

01:02:39.760 I've talked about that quite a

01:02:41.240 bit.

01:02:41.420 Biden injury happened at

01:02:46.800 Great Falls.

01:02:48.060 Where did it happen?

01:02:50.380 In Virginia.

01:02:51.660 And that is on Old

01:02:53.340 Dominion Drive.

01:02:54.920 Yeah.

01:02:55.380 So the coincidences are

01:02:56.780 happening because of the

01:02:57.940 coincidences are happening.

01:03:05.820 All right.

01:03:07.420 Well, I'm not worried about

01:03:08.640 Klaus Schwab and anything he

01:03:11.020 said about anything.

01:03:18.160 Somebody said agony of

01:03:19.720 defeat is pedantic.

01:03:21.880 Good pun with pedantic.

01:03:26.020 Oh, so somebody's asking

01:03:27.740 about Christina and holiday

01:03:29.060 music.

01:03:30.060 Well, Christina is perfecting

01:03:32.580 her holiday piano music.

01:03:36.640 And she picks arrangements that

01:03:38.680 are especially hard and

01:03:40.340 complicated.

01:03:41.300 So when she plays, you know,

01:03:43.060 jingle bells on the piano,

01:03:44.820 it's not the jingle bells that

01:03:46.540 you hum where you go, ping,

01:03:48.140 ping, ping, ping, ping, ping,

01:03:49.040 ping, ping.

01:03:49.600 It's a complicated one.

01:03:53.380 So she's, I don't know what she's

01:03:55.840 going to put on video or what

01:03:57.300 she'll release, but it's sounding

01:03:59.940 terrific right now.

01:04:01.300 Is Fox News dead with conservatives?

01:04:05.360 No, I don't think so.

01:04:11.580 This guy says both with an L.

01:04:15.140 Both or both.

01:04:17.040 Yeah, I do put an L in there.

01:04:18.120 You're right.

01:04:19.100 I put it, I insert an L in the

01:04:21.180 word both.

01:04:24.000 I wonder if that's a regional thing

01:04:25.540 or just a dumb thing.

01:04:27.080 All right.

01:04:27.340 That's all for now.

01:04:28.020 I'll talk to you tomorrow.

01:04:29.780 I'll talk to you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - November 30, 2020

Episode 1203 Scott Adams： Biden's Foot, Data Anomalies, Opening Schools, Who Took the Utah Monolith？

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