Episode 1220 Scott Adams： Good News on COVID-19, Biden Warned us About Himself, Why Historians are Screwed
Episode Stats
Length
1 hour and 2 minutes
Words per Minute
146.36832
Summary
In this episode of the podcast, I talk about how technology has changed the way we live our lives, and how it might be the biggest game changer we ve ever seen. I also talk about a new kind of dog that can sniff COID by sniffing your armpit.
Transcript
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You know, it just occurred to me that when I was a kid, it would have been hard to do
00:00:06.720
this even if we had this technology, because all of our clocks were different.
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When I was a kid, most of our clocks were on slightly different times.
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So if you wanted to live stream when I was a kid, even if you could do the live stream
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part, you wouldn't be able to do the starting simultaneous part, because people would be
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like, I don't know, my watch says you're five minutes early, and half the other people would
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be, it looks like you're about 10 minutes late, according to me.
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But thanks to the miracle of technology, every one of you has the correct time, and here you
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So glad you're here, and if you'd like to enjoy it to its fullest extent, you know what you
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need, it's a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or gel, or a stein, a canteen jug, or a flask,
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Fill it with your favorite liquid, I like coffee, and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure,
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the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.
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Ah, and I hope you sipped when I did, I forgot to say go.
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Well, have you all heard that, yeah, Periscope is going to be discontinued, but fear not, I
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will not be discontinued, I will not be canceled yet.
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So in March, apparently Periscope will be discontinued, but you have the following options.
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Number one, there may, may or may not be, I do not know, a replacement.
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So Periscope will go away, but we don't know if Twitter will offer some kind of a replacement.
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Let's just say I've heard, I've heard chatter that would suggest that's at least a possibility.
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But in the meantime, I'm always live on YouTube, where I am live streaming even right now,
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And of course, I'll be on Locals, a subscription platform that has this stuff, plus all of my
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stuff that I don't show you here, because I would get in trouble.
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So the stuff I put on the Locals platform, Locals.com, I do the stuff that I think would
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be maybe a little too edgy here, or extra stuff and lessons on persuasion to turn you into a
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So those are similar options, and it's also available on podcasts if you want to listen
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So I don't know if, I think we're updated on that.
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You've heard this before, but it's going to a new level, which is dogs being trained to
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Now, apparently, you don't need the dog to actually get up in there.
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You can just take some kind of a towelette and swab your armpit, make it available to
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And the dog, they believe, the people studying this, and there are a number of pilot programs
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But the people looking into it think the dog would be able to get up to between 75% and
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Now, imagine how quickly you could test if the dog could do it.
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Let's say you get off an airplane or something, and they want to test you when you reach the
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But this is one of those weird situations where the least expected solution might be the one
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Because if you can train dogs to do this, there's no technology that's going to come close.
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Because literally, the dog can just walk through a whole crowd as long as they've swabbed themselves
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and made it available, test the whole room, you know, 10 minutes.
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So, and how long does it take to train a dog to detect a certain smell?
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I'll bet it's not the hardest thing you've ever trained a dog to do.
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There are a number of pilot programs going on and look kind of promising.
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Now, of course, the other big, big news is the vaccines being rolled out and all the conversation
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And all that conversation has been kind of boring because everybody says the same thing.
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Let us discuss who should get the vaccines first.
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You may not have heard this before, but I'm thinking people in rest homes and nursing homes
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and maybe frontline health care workers, just like 100% of the other people in the world.
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But there's also a big conversation about who should do it in front of the public.
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Because wouldn't you like to see Joe Biden get a vaccination in public?
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And I'll tell you, in my opinion, I'm pretty sure the vaccine is going to be safe.
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But just in case, you know, again, I'm really sure the vaccinations will be safe.
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But just in case, don't you think we should do Kamala before Joe Biden?
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But the other thing that you should not do when you're deciding who should be on TV getting
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the vaccination, you should not pick a cartoonist to go first.
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Because I've thought, you know, I'm a public figure.
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So as a public figure, you know, I don't want to jump the line.
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But I thought, well, maybe I have some responsibility, right?
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To show the public, you know, that I'm willing to get the vaccination.
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But I'm really the wrong person to do it on TV or any kind of a live stream.
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Because I'm pretty sure I know how I would play it.
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You know, I don't mind getting shots, actually.
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You know, they'd be like, you're going to feel a little pinch.
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And I'd be like, and I'd be like, oh, oh, you're done?
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I really thought it was going to be more than that.
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There's just like a little bit of a, you know, you can feel it.
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I mean, you can feel that I got the vaccination.
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But I've been hearing people say, you know, it was getting really stiff and stuff.
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Actually, I can feel a little stiffness coming.
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And I highly recommend you should all get the...
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For those of you listening on podcast, what you missed was a hilarious impression of me becoming frozen.
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Now, I will say again, I will get the vaccination.
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If you didn't hear the story of how the vaccination process got sped up by Trump, it's really interesting.
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So here's a little tidbit that I heard just yesterday listening to the news, which was that the normal process, if they do a big study,
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is that the FDA, I think it's the FDA, and whoever they work with, looks at the data for something like six months.
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After a controlled study of a new drug, the FDA will look at the data and really study it for six months.
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I've never seen any data I needed to study for six months.
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But studying the data took six months until Trump said, not anymore, basically.
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It doesn't take six months to look at fucking data.
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What the hell were they doing all the time up until now if it took them months to look at data?
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Even if there's a lot of data, how long it should take?
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And now, apparently, the people who do these things said, oh, well, I guess we'll just do it in a more reasonable, compressed amount of time.
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I think they got it down to, I have my numbers approximate, but it was like something like taking it from six months down to one month.
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I can't think of any data that would take a month to look at.
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If it takes a month to look at it, somebody organized it poorly.
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So you really need to be talking to whoever gave you the data, because there should be things like summaries and totals at the bottoms of columns and stuff.
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I feel like they should have done a lot of work for you.
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So when you hear that Trump did the impossible with the warp speed stuff, maybe it was the impossible for other people, but he just sort of made it happen, and then they just did it.
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Let me give you the rookie lesson in management, followed by the experienced person's lesson in management.
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Here's what young people and people who do not have experience think management would look like.
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The manager comes in and says to the project experts, you know, the manager doesn't know much, but the people working on the project know the details of the project.
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And the manager says, I need you to be done in a month.
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And the project experts say, whoa, I know that's what you want, but let me show you the timelines, the dependencies on the project.
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There isn't actually any way to do this in less than two months.
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Now, the inexperienced manager way to look at this is, well, the person who knows a lot more than I do, and I hired them and I trust them, says it's going to take two months.
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I wanted it in one, but I guess I have to accept two months.
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That's the inexperienced person's view of management.
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Here's the experienced person's view of management.
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Expert says, no way to do this in less than two months, and here's my reasons why.
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Manager looks blankly at expert and says, do it in one fucking month.
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And then the expert does it in one month, but without the fucking part, because the manager usually leaves that part out.
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That's what an experienced manager does, because they know that just about everything can be done faster.
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And they have a sense of what that means in any particular context, if they're good managers.
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So when Trump was presented, I wasn't in the room, but one can imagine something like this happened.
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You can imagine somebody saying to Trump, here's the process, and the reason it takes all these years to do a vaccine is that it takes six months to look at the data.
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I don't know if any of this happened in real life, but you can imagine this.
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Imagine Trump listening to somebody tell him that the phase of just looking at the frickin' data was going to take six months.
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Maybe Biden would do that, because Biden says, listen to the experts, right?
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If that's what it takes to look at data, and nobody's telling me it could be done faster, what are you going to do?
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But I think Trump, like an experienced manager, and exactly what I would have said, had I been president in the room, I would have said, stop, stop, hold on.
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I'm going to need a little more explanation about this six months to look at data, because you're not producing the data, you're just looking at it.
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You're going to have to get that six months down to a little bit shorter, or somebody's going to be fired.
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I'm guessing that that was a lot of what it looked like behind closed doors, just, you know, conceptually.
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Today, at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, that would be 10 a.m. for you Californians, I'm going to do a separate live stream interview with Razeeb Khan,
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who's a spokesperson for Traitwell, T-R-A-I-T-W-E-L-L, and he's a geneticist, and he'll tell us about Traitwell's new system, I guess you'd say,
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where you can upload your DNA and some other information, and it will tell you your relative COVID risk.
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Well, these are the questions I will ask him, and I don't know the answers to the questions.
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But imagine if you're trying to figure out who should get the vaccination first.
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We'll also ask him about DNA and privacy and stuff like that.
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So imagine if we could find out that some people have much lower risk than other people,
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and even after you've accounted for comorbidities and lifestyle and age and all that.
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If we could actually say, well, if we're going to do the high-risk people first,
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The FDA is actually authorizing its first over-the-counter at-home COVID test.
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You've been hearing me complaining about the lack of the rapid tests for a while now.
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Now, I don't think this is exactly the same thing I've been talking about,
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because this might be a little bit of a higher end, higher, I don't know,
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but it might be a higher sensitivity, but costs a little bit more.
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It still takes only 15 to 20 minutes to get a result at home with just your own nasal swab test.
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And I think that'll be available in a few months.
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Now, the problem is, oh, is somebody saying, can he identify adverse reactions to the vaccine?
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I'm sure that's not part of what they do at Traitwell, but it's a heck of a question.
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So, I had been saying that I thought there must be some kind of either,
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while I was actually speculating, there was some kind of corruption in our government
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for not already having approved these over-the-counter cheap tests.
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I still think that's more likely the case than other explanations for why it wasn't here sooner
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and why we don't have more of them and maybe the lower sensitivity tests as well.
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But when you hear that it takes six months to look at data, I start saying, oh, maybe it
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is possible that incompetence could explain it.
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Because I had ruled out incompetence just because it's so long now that you couldn't possibly
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But now you hear how long it really takes, or it used to take, before Trump was kicking
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their butts, and you say to yourself, it's actually, maybe it wasn't corruption.
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Could it be they were actually just that incompetent?
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I didn't want to believe it, because it's easier to believe corruption, but maybe.
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Other good news, COVID-wise, is that McConnell says, Mitch McConnell says that the top leaders
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in Congress are going to stay behind and not go home from Washington over the holidays
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So he's talking about the funding for COVID relief in a variety of ways.
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But if the rest of Congress goes home, does it matter that the leadership makes an agreement?
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Because they can't vote on it, because everybody went home.
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So isn't it really just an agreement to see if they can agree among themselves, so then
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But when Congress comes back, the rest of Congress might not agree.
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So it looks like just a clever way to go home for Christmas without an agreement, or at least
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But, you know, at least they know the optics look bad if they all go home.
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It seems to me that in the old days, the winning team got to decide what the history was for
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So if your country won the war, you get to write the history of the war, and you write it
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But in the old days, history would have basically one version per country, at least through high
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You could find other versions, but there would be a mainstream version.
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Now, history is being written and permanently recorded in the Internet.
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So everything that's happening will just sort of always be there, we think.
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So how do you deal with the fact that there are two completely different histories?
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How do you write a history book at, let's say, the college level that would include this
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What would you say about the Trump administration?
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Would you say the fine people hoax actually happened?
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Would you say that the president really did suggest drinking bleach?
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Because these are the things that will become the permanent record that become the new way that
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It's no longer some consensus, you know, winner puts it in one version.
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Literally, what do you do when you don't have one history anymore?
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But I'm thinking that, well, let me put it in concrete terms.
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Imagine if history simply followed CNN's reporting.
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Imagine if they just didn't vary from whatever CNN reported, and we would allow that if CNN
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ever, you know, corrected anything, that the correction would stand.
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But basically, the CNN's version of the world, suppose you just took that and put it in a
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history class or textbook and said, here's your history.
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And, you know, the New York Times agreed with them, and the Washington Post agreed with them.
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I don't even know what they will teach in school.
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I like actually, literally, I don't know how they would teach it, because who would agree
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So here's what I'm thinking is our current situation.
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When it comes to investing, I'll use an analogy here, in investing, one of the few things that
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everybody agrees on, no matter what kind of an expert you are on investing, pretty much
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Because if you're not diversifying, putting your money in lots of different bets, so that
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if some of them go bad, you'll at least, by luck, you'll have some that went extra well
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So in finance, if you're trying to, you know, pick one winning stock, you're just a sucker,
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You know, we know that people don't have any skill to pick individual stocks.
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Even really, really good people aren't good at it.
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So diversification fits, it fixes most of the problems that you would have in the way you
00:24:18.960
Just get that one thing right, and you're in pretty good shape.
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And I think the same thing is going to be true for the news and for history, meaning
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that you will have to read a diverse bunch of sources to actually have any idea what was
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So you no longer can take a source and say, well, here's my news.
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If you're not watching the news on the left and the right, you're not watching anything.
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And I wouldn't say that either of them get it right.
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They get different things wrong at different times.
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But if you're not seeing both, you don't know what's going on.
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So Congress, I mentioned this yesterday, reached this big energy deal, it looks like, that includes
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nuclear energy, some new technologies for that, promoting that stuff, and also carbon
00:25:21.680
Now, every person who's, let's say, in the middle, the political middle, thinks these
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But I would say that people in the middle, whether they're Democrats or Republicans, if
00:25:36.340
they're in the middle, they probably like nuclear energy.
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Now, on the right, they might like nuclear energy all the way from left to right.
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But pretty much, it's a good middle position, nuclear power.
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No matter what you think of climate change, you still probably think nuclear energy is required.
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And carbon capture, I don't think anybody disagrees with it.
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If some company wants to capture the carbon out of the air, which is a thing, and turn
00:26:16.620
I feel as if we get lost in what Greg Goffeld often refers to as this prison of two ideas,
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that you've either got your Republican or you've got your Democrat, you know, you've
00:26:30.160
got your lefties or your righties, and your government is going to be one of those two
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Or if you're lucky, it could be, you know, deadlocked.
00:26:40.080
But I think there might be something that's even better than that, which is alternating Trump-like
00:26:55.780
In other words, the best situation might be not a Trump-like candidate forever and not a
00:27:05.200
It might be, and I would make a strong argument for this, actually, and I'm going to right
00:27:14.140
And the reason is that they have different skills, and there are some problems that some
00:27:21.080
So let me give you an example of some things that I think Trump was uniquely qualified for.
00:27:27.340
And if he hadn't done what he had done, much of it will be lasting, I think.
00:27:31.580
If he had not done those things, another president, I don't think, could have done these things.
00:27:37.560
But I'm going to tell you that also there might be some things that Biden can get done
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that you would want to get done, things that you would want that even Trump couldn't get
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done because he was, you know, sort of polarizing, to say the least.
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So here are things that Trump probably did that are close to impossible.
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So the Middle East peace deals, making North Korea sort of a little buddy that doesn't bother
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us too much, Project Warp Speed, incredible success, decoupling from China.
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I don't think you would have seen that from really anybody else.
00:28:08.280
I don't think anybody would have been as effective with ISIS, and we haven't had much terrorism
00:28:15.440
I don't think anybody would have done as good a job with Iran if you think that that approach
00:28:20.360
to it was the right way to go to, you know, put them in a position where they'll have to
00:28:28.220
Trump got not just good employment, he had record low unemployment.
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I don't know if another president could have done that.
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You know, he did the NAFTA deals, he's done other trade deals that probably wouldn't have
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If you like that kind of judge, probably, you know, you needed Trump to have.
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If Trump had not gotten elected against all odds, all of those positions would have gone
00:28:58.020
And that's a pretty big, big deal, if you like that kind of judge.
00:29:04.440
And I would argue that even Trump's wall design for the wall with the border of Mexico, that
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even if Biden says he doesn't like it and doesn't want to build a wall, he's a little bit stuck.
00:29:18.340
You can get rid of bad policies, but it's hard to get rid of bad design.
00:29:24.380
And what Trump did was good design, working with the experts.
00:29:29.140
So the specific kind of wall that Trump is putting up, even though it's replacement for,
00:29:34.460
you know, bad wall that even the Democrats thought should be replaced, his good design
00:29:40.800
is probably so good it's going to make a difference compared to the little walls and fences they
00:29:47.460
I would expect that Biden is going to end up making noise about tearing down the wall or
00:29:56.100
And it will sort of drift and morph into, OK, we're only going to put wall where we had
00:30:02.520
wall before, which turns out to be the best place to put it.
00:30:06.400
Because where we had wall before, it wasn't a good wall.
00:30:10.600
But the only reason there was any wall there at all is because we really needed one.
00:30:14.740
So if you replace the bad wall with good wall, which even Democrats would agree with, because
00:30:22.180
We're just making sure that, you know, these particular places don't have an issue.
00:30:29.340
And even the experts are still saying it's the best design.
00:30:32.660
It wasn't, you know, Trump's personal, you know, design.
00:30:38.460
So I think Biden is going to have to keep even the wall design, because it just was a better
00:30:50.320
And I think even Biden will, he'll not be as tight as Trump on the border, but even he's
00:31:06.740
The other things that Trump did that I think wouldn't have been done, he took a swipe at
00:31:14.180
I don't know if that's going to be successful, but that thing where you get the most favorite
00:31:20.160
nation's pricing, I don't think anybody else would have even tried that.
00:31:27.860
I don't think anybody else would have changed regulations as readily as Trump did.
00:31:33.980
So there's a whole bunch of things that you just couldn't have gotten that are either
00:31:39.120
permanent or at least sticky, and you get to keep that stuff.
00:31:44.120
Now, here's what a Biden could bring you, even if you're a Republican.
00:31:49.220
I think Biden could do more for nuclear energy than Trump.
00:31:55.280
For whatever reason, Trump didn't like to speak about nuclear energy.
00:32:01.340
You know, he's mentioned it sort of in a list of stuff.
00:32:04.620
But Biden probably wouldn't get as much pushback from the left.
00:32:08.400
So maybe he can make something happen, sell nuclear energy as it properly should be sold
00:32:18.240
If Biden comes out tomorrow and says, hey, you need to know that nuclear energy is green
00:32:24.940
energy, and it's not just important, it's probably the most important thing.
00:32:29.740
If Biden said that out loud, suddenly, you know, you could have a pretty robust, more robust
00:32:38.860
You might do something with health care if he's a little less polarizing.
00:32:43.480
Maybe he'll get something done with transportation.
00:32:46.140
Maybe he can do more to tamp down BLM and Antifa, who are really just a, they felt like a Trump
00:32:53.360
So there might be a bunch of stuff you don't like about Biden, and I'm not going to argue
00:32:57.100
There was also a bunch of stuff you probably didn't like about Trump, even if you supported
00:33:02.880
My only point is that if each of these people do sticky things, meaning that if each of
00:33:09.260
them do what they can do that are good things, the good things stick.
00:33:14.700
And then maybe it's time to try something else next time to pick up those holes that the other
00:33:23.020
Here's my take on the Eric Swalwell Chinese spy lover story.
00:33:28.980
Now, I don't know if the lover part has been, is just alleged or confirmed.
00:33:34.440
I know that his staff, at least at one point, refused to deny that they were intimately involved,
00:33:45.760
It just means that that's, I guess you have to just say that's part of the story.
00:33:51.380
I don't like to say that about anybody, you know, unless I saw it with my own eyes, you
00:33:57.320
know, and I wouldn't want to see it with my own eyes, but it's just part of the story.
00:34:01.860
Now, let's say that you believe that Swalwell was too close to the Chinese spy, and some people
00:34:10.620
are saying he should be removed from the Intelligence Committee, because that sounds bad, right?
00:34:16.940
Chinese spy, Intelligence Committee, pretty bad.
00:34:21.020
But the defense against that is that there is no evidence that he revealed any secrets.
00:34:33.880
You know, whatever you want to say about Swalwell, he is also smart enough, and he's, you know,
00:34:42.400
I think that he would be smart enough that he would not have revealed any intelligence
00:35:03.300
Now, even if you could imagine that he was smart enough not to let any state secrets get
00:35:09.360
to any civilian, it shouldn't matter whether it was a spy or just a civilian, should have
00:35:15.040
been the same standard of, you know, no way, no how for the secret stuff.
00:35:24.460
If you were a planted Chinese spy, now I'm using the word spy, I think that's fair, right?
00:35:34.340
And if you were a planted spy, would you be untrained?
00:35:40.860
Or do they just say, hey, Christine Fang, Fang Fang as we like to call you, your assignment
00:35:49.300
is this young politician, and your job is to go help China?
00:36:00.480
Well, you're going to go do things with Swalwell and get close to him and see what you can do.
00:36:07.780
And then she would say, see what I can do in what way?
00:36:19.640
Well, yes, if you get an opportunity to find out any secrets, that's part of it.
00:36:36.260
If you're going to go through all the trouble to plant Chinese spies all around the world
00:36:43.760
in key positions, are you going to send them there untrained?
00:36:55.060
Now, since I don't know if she is trained or trained in what way,
00:37:09.500
If you think I'm a Democrat apologist, you might want to wait.
00:37:13.200
And by the way, if you think I'm a Democrat apologist, you're a fucking idiot.
00:37:20.580
And you shouldn't be watching this live stream.
00:37:22.920
You should really find some other content that's less challenging.
00:37:29.360
It's not my job to be an apologist for anybody.
00:37:32.360
And anybody who's been around long enough knows I will take any position that seems reasonable,
00:37:42.660
I don't need to be anybody's fucking apologist.
00:37:47.260
Go watch some other content that's more to your liking.
00:37:53.420
If you really want to be frightened of what's the worst-case scenario,
00:37:58.220
imagine if Fang Fang had my skill just for persuasion.
00:38:37.780
he was selling the idea that there was Russia collusion.
00:38:44.080
when I find out that Democrats believe what they're saying?
00:38:57.920
by somebody who was really, really well-trained