Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1222 Scott Adams： Toobin Holds His Post, Putin's Excellent Schemes, Vaccination Cognitive Dissonance

00:00:00.620 Hey everybody, come on in and welcome to, and I don't like to brag about this, but I

00:00:08.140 think it's quite appropriate.

00:00:11.600 Yes, it's true, I'm the first heterosexual bald man to host Coffee with Scott Adams.

00:00:20.300 First one.

00:00:21.460 And my critics are saying that it's stunning and brave.

00:00:26.520 I think it is.

00:00:28.460 And it takes courage.

00:00:30.000 It takes courage to do this.

00:00:32.460 And if you'd like to enjoy it to its fullest capacity, all you need is a copper, a mugger, a glass, a tanker, a chalice, or a stein, a canteen jug, or a flask.

00:00:41.280 A vessel of any kind.

00:00:44.160 Fill it with your favorite liquid.

00:00:46.320 I like coffee.

00:00:48.060 Join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine hit of the day, the thing that makes everything better.

00:00:54.740 Except the lockdown.

00:00:55.680 It's called the simultaneous sip, and it happens now.

00:00:59.120 Go.

00:00:59.580 Go.

00:01:04.760 Well, those of you worried about the coming demise of Periscope, worry not.

00:01:11.180 You have options.

00:01:12.200 It looks like Twitter is going to just incorporate Periscope into Twitter.

00:01:19.000 So it's starting to look like Twitter isn't going away so much as the name is changing and the way you get into it is different.

00:01:26.200 So we'll wait on that.

00:01:28.120 But in the meantime, especially since I don't trust YouTube to not demonetize me or not kick me off, I've opened up a Rumble account in addition to YouTube.

00:01:42.260 Now, Rumble is almost ready to have live streaming.

00:01:47.820 So until Rumble has live streaming, I'll just continue to do the two live streams, and then as soon as these are done, they'll get posted to Rumble, also to the locals platform, if you want to see it there.

00:01:59.520 All right, let's talk about all the stuff.

00:02:05.480 Chris Christie just recorded a commercial public service announcement telling people to wear masks because he got the COVID himself, and he was in the ICU for days.

00:02:17.460 And now he says, quote, this message isn't for everyone, Christie said in the video.

00:02:25.000 It's for all those people who refuse to wear a mask.

00:02:28.480 You know, lying in isolation in ICU for seven days, I thought about how wrong I was to remove my mask at the White House.

00:02:36.720 Well, I suppose it depends what he means by that.

00:02:39.280 If he means he thinks he got the virus because he removed his mask, I'm not sure that's what the masks are for.

00:02:48.640 Has that changed?

00:02:50.140 Because I thought we were told very clearly and often that wearing a mask is for the benefit of the other person.

00:02:58.020 It's not so much that you're going to prevent things coming into you, but you might prevent giving off some virus to somebody else.

00:03:06.020 Has that changed?

00:03:06.820 I saw a comment that says the CDC changed that, but I didn't see that in the news, so I don't know.

00:03:15.080 But if it did change or it didn't, there's so many things that are just sketchier.

00:03:20.440 But it would be weird if Christie went from whatever he believed about masks to his current belief about masks and still didn't know it's about the other person.

00:03:33.420 Somebody says it can help, but I would have to think it would help in both directions, maybe more so in one direction.

00:03:41.460 Well, today is the anniversary.

00:03:45.140 Back in 1903, the Wright brothers flew their first airplane.

00:03:51.260 And whenever I see a story about the Wright brothers, I think back to all of my critics who say,

00:03:57.540 Scott, Scott, Scott, stay in your lane.

00:04:01.660 Don't try to go into some other field.

00:04:05.260 But of course, I call that the most loserish advice of all advice in the history of time.

00:04:23.360 Stay in your lane would have not given you the airplane.

00:04:27.600 Stay in your lane would not give you the automobile.

00:04:34.080 Stay in your lane would not get you Apple computer.

00:04:39.880 What did Steve Jobs know about computers before he got into that?

00:04:45.480 And of course, I would not be doing this live stream, and I wouldn't be a cartoonist,

00:04:50.240 because I was not in the cartoonist lane before I was, and I wasn't in this lane until I was.

00:04:59.300 So stay in your lane, worst advice of all time.

00:05:07.400 Here's a question for you just to make you feel uncomfortable.

00:05:10.460 How many of your decisions that you've made during the pandemic,

00:05:19.800 and of course, we're all making lots of decisions every day about when to put on your mask,

00:05:25.220 do you wash your mask, how much social distancing, how close to get.

00:05:30.440 So you're making hundreds of decisions a day about coronavirus,

00:05:34.360 even if you're not thinking about it consciously.

00:05:38.160 And here's what I'm wondering.

00:05:41.320 There are a lot of things that we do where we say,

00:05:45.800 you know, I'm just going to take a little extra chance here.

00:05:51.240 I'm going to cut a corner.

00:05:54.240 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only reason that we think we're being ethical

00:05:58.200 when we cut a corner is because we don't know who would die, right?

00:06:04.600 If we knew, uh-oh, if I don't put my mask on to talk to my next-door neighbor,

00:06:11.540 if you knew that would kill a guy named Bob, you wouldn't do it.

00:06:17.460 But because you don't exactly know if talking to your neighbor is going to spread it one way or the other,

00:06:26.780 which will get to somebody's grandparents, which will kill Bob, 0.79

00:06:30.240 you just have no way to know the chain of cause and effect.

00:06:33.640 But that doesn't make you less responsible, does it?

00:06:38.080 It just makes it harder to know who did what that caused what.

00:06:43.960 And so I had this experience the other day.

00:06:46.660 And without getting into the details, I had the experience that you have every day,

00:06:52.220 which is there was a thing I could have played safe,

00:06:55.700 but it was a little inconvenient.

00:06:58.800 I didn't, maybe didn't want to.

00:07:01.520 It's not that I didn't know that there was a proper way to go about this thing.

00:07:06.940 It doesn't matter what it is.

00:07:08.280 I knew what the proper thing was.

00:07:10.940 I just cut a corner.

00:07:13.080 I made a decision that in this one case, I'll just cut a corner.

00:07:19.720 The only reason I can do that is cognitive dissonance.

00:07:24.420 That my brain turns off,

00:07:27.120 and I no longer think in some kind of a social way

00:07:30.260 that what I'm doing is part of saving lives.

00:07:34.120 Just because I can't trace my specific action to a specific death,

00:07:38.200 I tell myself, well, it's not being...

00:07:41.760 I'm not being unethical.

00:07:44.240 I'm just cutting a little corner here.

00:07:48.020 Nobody's even going to know the difference.

00:07:50.600 So when I noticed...

00:07:53.260 And by the way, this rarely happens.

00:07:55.780 The whole point of cognitive dissonance

00:07:58.100 is that you don't know you're in it.

00:08:00.740 It wouldn't be cognitive dissonance

00:08:02.540 if you understood yourself to be in it.

00:08:05.540 You would just think your way out of it if you could do that.

00:08:07.700 But with this coronavirus,

00:08:10.900 I've actually caught myself

00:08:12.720 using cognitive dissonance

00:08:15.900 to try to rationalize my own laziness.

00:08:18.980 Because usually it's just convenience or laziness

00:08:21.920 where you say, well, I cut a little corner.

00:08:25.760 Now, some of you have decided that masks don't work

00:08:28.700 and that the virus isn't real.

00:08:30.660 I believe that for some of that population,

00:08:35.640 the ones who think the virus is not really real

00:08:38.100 or the ones who think social distancing and masks don't work,

00:08:43.620 I feel as if there was a time

00:08:46.360 when that conversation made sense,

00:08:48.920 but now it's just cognitive dissonance.

00:08:52.640 Just cognitive dissonance.

00:08:54.680 And when you see people argue it,

00:08:56.340 it looks like nonsense now.

00:08:57.840 There was a time when it was perfectly sensible

00:09:00.600 to question every part

00:09:03.500 of the scientific recommendations for coronavirus

00:09:06.140 because they got a lot wrong.

00:09:08.560 It's not like the experts were right on top of it in every way.

00:09:13.960 But it looks to me,

00:09:15.680 it looks to me like there's a sizable number of people

00:09:19.500 who believe they're involved in some kind of a logical argument,

00:09:23.600 but it is really obvious to an observer,

00:09:27.560 and not just me,

00:09:28.700 but to any observer who's not in cognitive dissonance.

00:09:31.620 It's really obvious.

00:09:33.740 So let me give you one example I just saw on social media.

00:09:37.040 There was a user on social media

00:09:39.160 who said, argumentatively,

00:09:42.380 that his child, he estimates,

00:09:45.020 has a 1 in 250,000 risk of dying from COVID,

00:09:51.660 one in a quarter million.

00:09:55.120 So that's the risk of the COVID.

00:09:57.160 And he points out quite reasonably,

00:09:59.620 but what's the risk of the vaccine?

00:10:02.960 We don't really even know what the risk of the vaccine is.

00:10:06.420 Nothing is risk-free, right?

00:10:08.160 Even if the vaccine passed every standard,

00:10:11.120 and even if it's the safest medicine we've ever made,

00:10:14.500 even the safest medicine you've ever made

00:10:17.660 is going to kill somebody. 0.93

00:10:20.460 There's always somebody who's got just the right situation

00:10:22.820 where an aspirin takes them out.

00:10:26.960 So, anyway, it just seems to me

00:10:33.220 that our decisions are cognitive dissonance

00:10:35.400 much more than they are accumulated learning.

00:10:39.220 And we feel like we want to do things

00:10:40.800 that are lazy and good for us and selfish,

00:10:43.040 and so we put a veneer,

00:10:45.840 this little thin veneer of cognitive dissonance on it,

00:10:49.200 and we act like it doesn't matter.

00:10:51.960 Act like it doesn't matter.

00:10:53.880 The only thing we know for sure

00:10:55.400 is that we can't tell if it matters,

00:10:57.940 which is really different.

00:11:00.340 All right.

00:11:03.320 Elon Musk got in some trouble

00:11:05.500 for complaining about the,

00:11:07.660 well, he used this word,

00:11:08.980 the aesthetics of pronouns.

00:11:11.040 So, you've seen the people

00:11:14.000 with their Twitter profiles,

00:11:16.580 and they'll do the he, him, and et cetera.

00:11:20.400 And Musk complained about the aesthetics

00:11:22.920 of the pronouns.

00:11:24.280 In other words,

00:11:24.780 it just takes something

00:11:26.760 that wasn't a problem before,

00:11:28.580 and it makes it harder to navigate.

00:11:32.520 Right?

00:11:33.060 Now, his critic said,

00:11:35.520 Elon Musk,

00:11:36.960 you're being a anti-LGBTQ,

00:11:41.040 but really?

00:11:43.100 What the hell does that have to do

00:11:44.480 with being pro or anti-LGBTQ?

00:11:48.420 It has nothing to do with that.

00:11:50.900 You know, Musk is an engineer.

00:11:52.960 He's simply taking one part of the problem,

00:11:55.580 which is that the pronouns are awkward,

00:11:58.780 and he's isolating that problem,

00:12:01.540 and he's saying,

00:12:02.740 okay, we've got a problem

00:12:03.580 with just these words around pronouns.

00:12:05.380 It's just a very engineering thing to say.

00:12:08.600 Is it true?

00:12:10.420 A hundred percent.

00:12:11.960 It adds a little bit of friction or complication.

00:12:16.040 It creates a situation where you can be wrong,

00:12:19.820 where before it was hard to be wrong.

00:12:22.660 So, that has nothing to do with

00:12:24.280 whether you love or appreciate LGBTQ people.

00:12:28.720 It's a completely, you know,

00:12:31.280 independent, isolated,

00:12:32.960 little engineering thought

00:12:34.500 that could not be more harmless.

00:12:37.660 Indeed, if you are LGBTQ,

00:12:41.280 don't you want simplicity in your life as well?

00:12:45.660 Like, who wants to be more complicated

00:12:47.740 than something needs to be?

00:12:49.000 Now, I'm very much on the side

00:12:52.140 of using language

00:12:54.220 that people are comfortable with

00:12:56.100 for their own descriptions of who they are.

00:12:59.400 And I try pretty hard to do that.

00:13:02.120 But it's still just a fact.

00:13:04.940 It adds a little friction.

00:13:07.140 I don't think that's improper in any way.

00:13:09.640 So, it's a weird world

00:13:11.240 that even a basic engineering thought,

00:13:15.620 which would be, I would say,

00:13:16.940 a hundred percent agreeable,

00:13:18.320 which is the weird part.

00:13:20.600 I'll bet there isn't a person on the planet.

00:13:23.340 Not one.

00:13:24.440 I'll bet you couldn't find one person

00:13:25.920 who disagrees with Elon Musk's point

00:13:29.340 that the pronoun thing

00:13:31.800 just added some friction

00:13:33.200 to something that didn't have friction before.

00:13:35.300 That's all.

00:13:36.480 That's it.

00:13:37.320 Nobody disagrees with that.

00:13:39.860 CNN News reporting,

00:13:41.240 and I love this choice of words.

00:13:44.340 I quote from CNN itself,

00:13:46.300 Toobin is holding on to his post.

00:13:51.720 I'm just going to let that sit there for a minute.

00:13:55.540 CNN literally wrote this.

00:13:57.460 Toobin is holding on to his post.

00:13:59.760 Now, as you know,

00:14:01.160 I am a vocal supporter

00:14:04.240 of Jeffrey Toobin

00:14:06.220 keeping his job or jobs

00:14:08.620 despite the fact

00:14:10.820 he made a humorous mistake

00:14:14.480 on Zoom

00:14:15.580 by pleasuring himself

00:14:16.860 not knowing that his camera was still on.

00:14:19.440 Now,

00:14:20.460 you don't have to make any excuse for

00:14:23.060 or, you know,

00:14:24.240 you don't have to apologize

00:14:25.260 on his behalf for anything he did.

00:14:27.600 A mistake is a mistake.

00:14:28.780 But it was a mistake with no victim

00:14:31.580 and it was also

00:14:32.960 a completely understandable mistake.

00:14:36.140 I mean,

00:14:36.640 literally this morning,

00:14:38.940 this is not a joke,

00:14:41.280 literally minutes ago

00:14:43.140 I accidentally hit the live button

00:14:45.820 on YouTube.

00:14:47.920 You know,

00:14:48.180 15 minutes before I wanted to go live

00:14:50.180 I just hit the wrong button.

00:14:51.780 So I was literally live on camera

00:14:54.360 to the entire planet.

00:14:56.580 I mean,

00:14:56.840 at least they had access to it

00:14:58.160 if they wanted.

00:14:58.960 I was live on video

00:15:00.460 to the entire planet

00:15:01.580 for about

00:15:02.480 five seconds

00:15:04.200 before I realized

00:15:05.840 what I'd done.

00:15:06.920 I mean,

00:15:07.220 how easy is it

00:15:08.020 to make that mistake?

00:15:09.460 Now,

00:15:09.780 as it turns out,

00:15:11.060 I was not

00:15:11.740 holding on to my post

00:15:13.700 if we may say it that way.

00:15:15.760 So,

00:15:16.400 I got off easy,

00:15:17.620 so to speak.

00:15:18.880 But,

00:15:19.740 I don't want people

00:15:21.660 losing their job

00:15:22.600 over

00:15:22.880 a little silly,

00:15:24.680 dumb mistake

00:15:25.380 over the course

00:15:26.760 of a successful career

00:15:28.360 like that.

00:15:29.100 It's just wrong.

00:15:30.580 So,

00:15:30.980 as much as I dislike

00:15:32.440 just about everything

00:15:33.700 Jeffrey Toobin's ever said

00:15:35.380 on CNN

00:15:35.940 about Trump,

00:15:38.220 I fully support him

00:15:40.160 keeping his job.

00:15:42.040 And anybody who has

00:15:43.240 a similar situation

00:15:44.300 has nothing to do

00:15:45.520 with politics.

00:15:46.500 It's just being human.

00:15:47.960 I mean,

00:15:48.260 let's give each other

00:15:49.240 a frickin' break.

00:15:50.900 You know,

00:15:51.120 let's give Elon Musk 0.87

00:15:52.260 a frickin' break

00:15:53.180 for a reasonable opinion.

00:15:55.660 There was nothing,

00:15:56.260 no mistake there at all.

00:15:57.700 And,

00:15:58.340 let's give Jeffrey Toobin

00:15:59.860 a frickin' break.

00:16:01.960 Give him a break.

00:16:03.800 It was a mistake.

00:16:05.300 It's not like

00:16:05.860 he even argued the point.

00:16:07.580 He never argued the point.

00:16:10.160 Accepted it like a man.

00:16:12.100 Took his lumps.

00:16:13.460 Took his embarrassment.

00:16:15.400 He just sucked it up

00:16:16.660 and just,

00:16:18.200 that's all I'd ask

00:16:19.120 from anybody.

00:16:19.940 Alright,

00:16:20.240 enough of that.

00:16:21.340 I'm finding that

00:16:22.380 there are more artists

00:16:24.640 coming out

00:16:25.560 to troll me

00:16:26.540 than usual.

00:16:27.800 You know,

00:16:28.060 it's sort of

00:16:28.580 a running joke

00:16:29.340 that when an artist

00:16:30.460 comes at me

00:16:31.600 on Twitter,

00:16:32.580 it's usually

00:16:33.180 the dumbest take.

00:16:35.460 Almost always.

00:16:36.480 It's the dumbest take.

00:16:38.100 And usually

00:16:38.740 they just come with

00:16:39.500 insults

00:16:40.000 and no reasons

00:16:41.140 or points or anything.

00:16:42.460 And so I just do

00:16:43.420 hashtag artist

00:16:44.540 and that's my only reply.

00:16:46.660 Because later

00:16:47.440 you'll be able

00:16:48.060 to search

00:16:48.820 for hashtag artist

00:16:49.940 and you'll see

00:16:50.860 all the dumbest comments

00:16:52.000 from all the artists.

00:16:53.620 But as I was doing

00:16:54.800 that today,

00:16:55.280 I thought to myself,

00:16:56.620 you know what I'd really like

00:16:57.960 as a filter

00:16:59.840 on Twitter?

00:17:01.120 I would love

00:17:02.040 a filter

00:17:02.680 by talent stack.

00:17:05.760 Just as an option.

00:17:07.280 You know,

00:17:07.600 Jack Dorsey

00:17:08.460 was talking about

00:17:09.300 one of the things

00:17:10.920 Twitter is looking

00:17:11.840 at seriously.

00:17:12.480 I don't know

00:17:13.500 where that's at

00:17:14.920 status-wise.

00:17:15.920 But they were

00:17:16.320 looking seriously

00:17:17.100 at letting users

00:17:18.560 have control

00:17:19.560 over the algorithm.

00:17:21.020 So you would be able

00:17:22.080 to have one kind

00:17:23.520 of algorithm.

00:17:24.480 Maybe I could just

00:17:25.180 turn it off.

00:17:26.460 Maybe there's a modified

00:17:27.440 one for somebody else.

00:17:29.120 And I like that idea

00:17:29.960 and concept.

00:17:30.820 But here's a filter

00:17:31.680 I would love to see.

00:17:33.720 I would love

00:17:34.400 when people are

00:17:35.400 onboarded

00:17:36.320 onto Twitter

00:17:37.460 that,

00:17:39.040 and this is not

00:17:39.800 practical,

00:17:40.480 so this just

00:17:41.220 is conceptual.

00:17:42.420 I would love

00:17:43.040 if people

00:17:43.560 who signed

00:17:44.520 onto Twitter

00:17:45.120 would self-identify

00:17:47.480 what skills

00:17:48.160 they have.

00:17:49.320 So I might say,

00:17:50.400 you know,

00:17:50.620 I've got a degree

00:17:51.240 in economics

00:17:51.940 and blah, blah, blah.

00:17:53.620 And then

00:17:55.660 that would give me

00:17:56.820 the ability

00:17:57.340 to filter out 0.99

00:17:58.360 all artists.

00:17:59.900 Because I would do that.

00:18:01.380 If I had an option

00:18:02.420 to never hear again

00:18:04.500 from anybody

00:18:05.180 whose primary job

00:18:06.540 is artist,

00:18:08.160 unless they also

00:18:09.340 had, let's say,

00:18:10.620 a second degree

00:18:11.760 or second talent,

00:18:13.060 which would be

00:18:13.880 picked up,

00:18:14.480 you know,

00:18:14.720 when you signed up,

00:18:16.080 I'd like to be able

00:18:16.940 to just turn off

00:18:17.740 all the comments

00:18:18.720 from people

00:18:19.240 who are artists.

00:18:20.260 Because they don't

00:18:21.180 add anything.

00:18:24.700 Anything.

00:18:25.580 There's no value

00:18:26.540 at all

00:18:26.980 from the artists.

00:18:28.080 Because they don't

00:18:28.660 understand the topics.

00:18:30.700 They're adding

00:18:31.560 noise and unpleasantness

00:18:33.720 without anything

00:18:35.300 valuable.

00:18:36.680 Now,

00:18:36.980 if you say to yourself,

00:18:38.060 but Scott,

00:18:38.600 Twitter is mostly

00:18:40.860 about things

00:18:42.740 that are,

00:18:43.200 you know,

00:18:43.400 like that.

00:18:44.560 To which I say,

00:18:46.040 not exactly.

00:18:48.140 Because there's lots

00:18:49.360 of, you know,

00:18:49.980 ugly disagreement

00:18:50.820 on Twitter,

00:18:51.880 but that's also

00:18:52.760 part of the fun.

00:18:53.940 And in that ugly

00:18:54.780 disagreement,

00:18:55.600 often you can

00:18:56.400 get your mind changed.

00:18:58.280 You can learn something,

00:18:59.580 somebody will point

00:19:00.200 to a useful link,

00:19:01.820 somebody will frame

00:19:02.660 things in a way

00:19:03.340 you hadn't thought

00:19:03.940 of it before.

00:19:04.560 generally speaking,

00:19:07.320 Twitter does have

00:19:08.220 the ability

00:19:08.640 to change opinions.

00:19:09.820 I would say

00:19:10.320 my opinion

00:19:10.840 on lots of stuff

00:19:11.640 has changed

00:19:12.180 just because

00:19:13.240 somebody smart

00:19:13.980 came in and said,

00:19:15.000 oh, you forgot

00:19:15.620 about this.

00:19:16.420 And then I'll say,

00:19:17.080 oh, yeah,

00:19:18.320 okay,

00:19:18.660 changed my mind.

00:19:19.520 But I'll tell you

00:19:20.180 what never happens,

00:19:21.540 not even once,

00:19:23.780 an artist

00:19:25.100 changed my mind.

00:19:26.980 I don't think

00:19:29.060 it's happened.

00:19:30.080 And I mean that

00:19:31.140 seriously.

00:19:31.620 I don't think

00:19:32.080 it's happened

00:19:32.460 even once.

00:19:33.940 So I'd like

00:19:35.060 the option

00:19:35.560 of just turning

00:19:36.080 off all the artists

00:19:36.880 so I can't see them

00:19:37.900 unless they have

00:19:38.940 additional skills.

00:19:42.540 All right.

00:19:43.700 So I told you

00:19:45.740 I've moved my videos

00:19:46.940 to Rumble.

00:19:47.640 I forget if I told you

00:19:48.740 that Rumble

00:19:50.260 will have live streaming.

00:19:52.240 It just doesn't

00:19:52.960 have it yet.

00:19:53.880 So just look

00:19:54.520 for that later.

00:19:54.980 Oh, I think I was,

00:20:00.140 yeah, never mind.

00:20:01.880 So it looks like

00:20:03.880 our intelligence

00:20:04.820 people are telling

00:20:05.680 us now that Russia

00:20:07.240 not only hacked

00:20:08.540 a number of

00:20:09.420 critical U.S.

00:20:11.600 systems,

00:20:12.540 but they might be

00:20:13.660 so deeply into

00:20:14.960 a lot of our

00:20:16.240 important systems

00:20:17.160 that you can't

00:20:17.960 get them out,

00:20:19.340 which is a thing.

00:20:20.660 Because first you

00:20:21.860 get in there

00:20:22.340 with your malicious

00:20:23.020 software,

00:20:23.760 but once you're in,

00:20:24.980 you can move

00:20:25.960 things around

00:20:26.540 and make changes

00:20:27.360 so that you can

00:20:28.240 be there forever

00:20:28.920 without being

00:20:29.720 identified.

00:20:31.300 So it's possible

00:20:32.460 we might have

00:20:33.060 to throw away

00:20:33.620 all the software

00:20:34.500 of all the

00:20:36.640 major systems

00:20:37.520 because they're

00:20:38.580 all really

00:20:40.300 tainted.

00:20:41.380 Now here's the

00:20:42.160 question.

00:20:43.260 With this

00:20:43.840 massive alleged

00:20:45.500 Russian

00:20:46.820 access to

00:20:48.780 our systems,

00:20:49.840 what have they

00:20:50.640 done

00:20:51.080 that we could

00:20:52.800 identify as

00:20:53.560 damage?

00:20:54.760 Well,

00:20:55.080 they've

00:20:55.360 apparently

00:20:55.780 interfered with

00:20:56.720 the election,

00:20:57.580 but we don't

00:20:58.040 even know

00:20:58.760 how much.

00:21:00.540 In 2016,

00:21:01.660 they also

00:21:02.100 interfered with

00:21:03.480 our election,

00:21:04.540 but the

00:21:04.880 interference,

00:21:05.800 if you added it

00:21:06.420 all up,

00:21:06.860 it wouldn't have

00:21:07.320 changed one vote,

00:21:09.220 I don't think.

00:21:10.120 So it was fairly

00:21:10.840 trivial.

00:21:12.300 And so I ask you

00:21:13.120 this,

00:21:14.000 they have all

00:21:14.820 this access,

00:21:16.220 but they don't

00:21:17.200 seem to be using

00:21:18.280 it at least

00:21:18.980 directly in terms

00:21:20.160 of attacking

00:21:21.240 the country

00:21:21.720 and taking

00:21:22.160 it down.

00:21:23.020 Maybe they're

00:21:23.400 stealing secrets

00:21:24.120 or whatever.

00:21:25.280 But here's

00:21:26.540 my take on

00:21:27.120 this.

00:21:27.540 I heard some

00:21:28.560 people online

00:21:29.240 who don't

00:21:29.700 know how

00:21:30.160 the world

00:21:30.620 works saying

00:21:32.180 that the

00:21:32.800 Trump administration

00:21:33.680 must have

00:21:34.220 done a bad

00:21:34.820 job in

00:21:36.440 cybersecurity

00:21:37.000 because Russia

00:21:39.040 got into

00:21:39.560 everything.

00:21:40.440 I don't feel

00:21:41.420 like that's a

00:21:42.060 thing.

00:21:43.160 I don't feel

00:21:44.040 like it was a

00:21:44.900 possibility that

00:21:46.540 the U.S.

00:21:47.180 government could

00:21:47.820 have protected

00:21:48.420 all of our

00:21:49.140 technology

00:21:49.900 systems.

00:21:51.400 Is that a

00:21:52.160 thing?

00:21:52.580 I don't think

00:21:53.200 that's a

00:21:53.560 thing.

00:21:54.620 I think if

00:21:55.760 it's technology,

00:21:57.160 it's hackable,

00:21:58.320 and if it's a

00:21:59.040 state hacker,

00:22:01.220 if it's not

00:22:01.720 just somebody

00:22:02.180 in their

00:22:02.460 basement,

00:22:02.960 but it's an

00:22:03.900 entire nation

00:22:04.820 with lots of

00:22:05.700 patients,

00:22:06.680 they'll wait

00:22:07.180 10 years to

00:22:08.240 get into a

00:22:09.240 supply chain

00:22:09.940 situation,

00:22:11.420 there's nothing

00:22:12.280 you can do

00:22:12.780 to stop that.

00:22:14.500 It's not

00:22:14.960 stoppable.

00:22:15.920 So what do

00:22:16.400 you do if

00:22:17.460 you can't keep

00:22:18.060 them out of

00:22:18.460 your systems?

00:22:19.500 Well, I'll

00:22:20.060 make an

00:22:20.380 assumption that

00:22:20.960 I feel is

00:22:21.480 fair.

00:22:22.760 My fair

00:22:23.400 assumption is

00:22:24.060 this.

00:22:25.020 We are so

00:22:26.000 far up,

00:22:26.840 or at least

00:22:27.260 our cyber

00:22:27.860 warfare people,

00:22:29.460 are so far

00:22:30.300 up Putin's

00:22:31.560 ass that they 0.56

00:22:32.720 can see his

00:22:33.320 tongue, meaning

00:22:34.680 that there's

00:22:35.860 mutually assured

00:22:36.840 destruction at

00:22:38.260 work, I

00:22:38.940 think.

00:22:39.740 It looks

00:22:40.400 like Russia 0.91

00:22:41.840 could take

00:22:42.420 down the

00:22:42.780 United States

00:22:43.620 in 10

00:22:45.220 minutes.

00:22:46.540 Doesn't it?

00:22:47.760 If anything

00:22:48.620 we saw in

00:22:49.200 the news

00:22:49.560 today is

00:22:50.060 true, Russia

00:22:52.060 could destroy

00:22:52.780 the United

00:22:53.260 States in

00:22:54.100 10 minutes.

00:22:55.620 Just activate

00:22:57.020 some software,

00:22:58.120 wipe a bunch

00:22:58.840 of servers,

00:23:00.400 goodbye banking

00:23:01.120 system, goodbye

00:23:02.220 commerce, goodbye

00:23:03.340 internet.

00:23:04.760 We would

00:23:05.280 basically be

00:23:06.280 reduced to our

00:23:07.200 technological

00:23:07.900 knees in 10

00:23:09.660 minutes.

00:23:10.000 And it

00:23:10.640 looks like

00:23:10.960 they have

00:23:11.200 the ability

00:23:11.540 to do

00:23:11.900 that.

00:23:13.300 Why don't

00:23:13.840 they?

00:23:15.180 Why don't

00:23:15.760 they do

00:23:16.020 that?

00:23:16.800 Well, the

00:23:17.120 reason is we

00:23:17.660 would wipe

00:23:18.080 them off the

00:23:18.600 map.

00:23:19.640 We would

00:23:20.320 destroy

00:23:21.460 everything

00:23:23.520 that's

00:23:25.080 Russian,

00:23:26.380 wherever it

00:23:27.160 lived,

00:23:27.540 anywhere in

00:23:28.120 the world.

00:23:29.120 Well, maybe

00:23:29.820 we wouldn't

00:23:30.240 do that.

00:23:31.100 But Russia

00:23:31.900 as a country

00:23:32.760 would cease

00:23:33.400 to exist.

00:23:35.300 So 10

00:23:36.100 minutes after

00:23:36.640 they brought

00:23:37.060 down the

00:23:37.480 United States,

00:23:38.900 we'd probably

00:23:39.580 know where

00:23:39.980 it came

00:23:40.260 from.

00:23:41.900 We'd just

00:23:42.460 take out

00:23:43.720 Russia.

00:23:44.200 Now, we

00:23:44.460 might have

00:23:44.780 to do it

00:23:45.080 with nuclear

00:23:45.660 weapons or

00:23:46.360 something.

00:23:47.060 But we

00:23:47.660 wouldn't sit

00:23:48.240 there and

00:23:48.620 take it.

00:23:49.800 We wouldn't

00:23:50.500 take it and

00:23:51.280 just say,

00:23:51.660 oh, I wish

00:23:52.340 that hadn't

00:23:52.700 happened.

00:23:53.700 No.

00:23:54.540 It would

00:23:54.920 be maximum

00:23:55.960 response.

00:23:59.220 And indeed,

00:23:59.800 I would like

00:24:00.240 to see our

00:24:01.140 nuclear

00:24:03.800 deterrent

00:24:04.500 extended.

00:24:06.000 I think

00:24:06.720 our nuclear

00:24:07.480 deterrent should

00:24:08.320 be extended

00:24:09.380 to cyber

00:24:10.140 warfare.

00:24:11.780 And we

00:24:12.040 should say,

00:24:13.040 if you

00:24:13.280 nuke us, 0.98

00:24:14.140 we will

00:24:14.560 respond with

00:24:15.420 nukes.

00:24:16.240 And if you

00:24:16.900 take down

00:24:17.480 our technology

00:24:18.640 with your

00:24:19.500 hacks, we

00:24:20.860 will respond

00:24:21.500 with nukes.

00:24:22.800 Because we

00:24:23.520 can't respond

00:24:24.080 with technology

00:24:24.840 necessarily if

00:24:25.800 you take

00:24:26.140 down our

00:24:26.480 technology.

00:24:28.180 But we'll

00:24:29.060 respond with

00:24:29.600 nukes.

00:24:30.380 Now, you

00:24:30.860 can always

00:24:31.220 change your

00:24:31.720 mind.

00:24:32.600 If you're in

00:24:33.160 that situation,

00:24:33.960 you can always

00:24:34.400 say, well,

00:24:34.940 maybe we won't

00:24:35.560 launch our

00:24:36.000 nukes.

00:24:36.280 We'll

00:24:37.120 try to

00:24:37.420 deal with

00:24:37.740 it.

00:24:38.440 But I'd

00:24:38.920 like them

00:24:39.300 to think

00:24:39.760 we would.

00:24:40.840 I'd like

00:24:41.280 to put

00:24:41.620 that on

00:24:42.020 the table.

00:24:42.880 Because we

00:24:43.360 keep pretending

00:24:44.100 that regular

00:24:45.500 war is the 0.93

00:24:46.300 bad kind,

00:24:47.500 and cyber

00:24:48.060 war is sort

00:24:48.700 of clean,

00:24:49.520 and if it

00:24:51.000 doesn't touch

00:24:51.480 you physically,

00:24:52.220 you're fine.

00:24:53.160 But that's

00:24:53.700 only because

00:24:54.220 they haven't

00:24:54.680 weaponized it.

00:24:56.080 The moment

00:24:56.640 Russia wanted 0.91

00:24:57.540 to weaponize

00:24:58.400 it, as

00:24:59.540 opposed to

00:25:00.100 just being

00:25:00.520 annoying,

00:25:01.260 or interfering

00:25:02.040 with elections

00:25:02.860 and stuff,

00:25:03.740 the moment

00:25:04.260 they wanted

00:25:04.700 to weaponize

00:25:05.240 it, it

00:25:05.480 would be

00:25:05.740 plenty deadly.

00:25:07.560 It probably

00:25:08.180 could kill

00:25:08.580 millions,

00:25:09.440 probably as

00:25:10.380 deadly as

00:25:10.920 a nuclear

00:25:11.340 war,

00:25:12.480 ultimately.

00:25:14.120 So we

00:25:14.460 should just

00:25:14.840 tell Russia, 0.89

00:25:16.380 look, here's

00:25:16.780 the deal.

00:25:18.120 We know

00:25:18.540 we can't

00:25:18.980 stop you

00:25:19.480 from diddling

00:25:20.160 with our

00:25:20.620 systems, but

00:25:21.400 you can't

00:25:21.960 stop us

00:25:22.640 either.

00:25:23.760 We're all

00:25:24.600 up in your

00:25:25.300 systems.

00:25:26.620 So if you

00:25:27.240 try to take

00:25:27.780 us down with

00:25:28.300 cyber, we

00:25:28.900 will take

00:25:29.340 your whole

00:25:29.700 country down

00:25:30.360 with cyber,

00:25:31.780 and if for

00:25:32.360 some reason

00:25:32.840 we can't

00:25:33.360 do that,

00:25:34.580 we'll

00:25:34.920 nuke you. 0.98

00:25:36.200 Because I'll

00:25:36.760 tell you what

00:25:37.160 we're not

00:25:37.600 going to

00:25:37.840 do, let

00:25:39.160 you take

00:25:39.480 down the

00:25:39.820 country with

00:25:40.380 cyber warfare

00:25:41.080 and do

00:25:41.480 nothing.

00:25:42.340 That's not

00:25:42.800 going to

00:25:43.000 happen.

00:25:44.000 We would

00:25:44.580 nuke them.

00:25:45.500 We should.

00:25:46.780 That would

00:25:47.380 be my

00:25:47.720 choice.

00:25:48.640 All right.

00:25:51.940 Here's a

00:25:52.600 question for

00:25:53.660 you.

00:25:54.220 We hear a

00:25:54.900 lot of

00:25:55.220 news about

00:25:56.240 Russia.

00:25:57.760 So there

00:25:58.140 was the

00:25:58.420 news about

00:25:59.000 the dissident

00:26:00.420 who was

00:26:00.900 poisoned,

00:26:01.940 allegedly,

00:26:02.380 by Putin.

00:26:04.940 And Putin

00:26:06.180 says that's

00:26:06.760 fake news.

00:26:08.440 Putin says

00:26:09.020 if we

00:26:09.400 tried to

00:26:09.800 kill him, 0.75

00:26:10.140 he'd be

00:26:10.360 dead.

00:26:11.740 And Putin

00:26:12.180 says, if

00:26:13.860 I were

00:26:14.200 trying to

00:26:14.660 kill him, 0.75

00:26:15.940 why did

00:26:16.500 I immediately

00:26:17.180 allow him

00:26:19.140 to be

00:26:19.620 taken from,

00:26:21.340 I guess he

00:26:22.060 was in,

00:26:23.020 where was

00:26:24.260 he, in

00:26:24.600 Siberia or

00:26:25.260 something?

00:26:26.160 But Putin

00:26:26.860 gave him

00:26:27.380 permission,

00:26:28.340 the wife,

00:26:29.380 I guess,

00:26:29.560 to take

00:26:30.820 him to

00:26:31.120 Berlin for

00:26:31.660 treatment

00:26:31.980 immediately.

00:26:33.900 Would

00:26:34.300 Putin

00:26:34.700 let the

00:26:36.000 guy he

00:26:36.460 poisoned

00:26:36.920 out of

00:26:38.480 the country

00:26:38.940 to be

00:26:39.340 cured if

00:26:40.220 it were

00:26:40.460 his choice?

00:26:41.060 And it

00:26:41.260 was his

00:26:41.600 choice.

00:26:42.400 It took

00:26:43.000 Putin to

00:26:43.520 say, yeah,

00:26:43.880 you can

00:26:44.200 take him

00:26:44.560 to a

00:26:44.800 hospital in

00:26:45.300 Berlin.

00:26:46.180 Why would

00:26:46.720 he do

00:26:46.960 that?

00:26:48.400 Now, it

00:26:48.760 could be,

00:26:49.400 let me give

00:26:50.200 you a reason,

00:26:50.800 it could be

00:26:51.340 that the

00:26:51.940 threat of

00:26:54.880 poisoning is

00:26:55.660 all he

00:26:55.980 needs,

00:26:56.660 right?

00:26:56.920 He doesn't

00:26:57.640 really need

00:26:58.180 the guy

00:26:58.460 to die.

00:26:59.560 He probably

00:27:00.360 just needs

00:27:00.900 the guy

00:27:01.240 to know

00:27:01.700 that next

00:27:03.300 time he's

00:27:03.720 not going

00:27:04.020 to be so

00:27:04.420 lucky.

00:27:05.520 And he

00:27:05.760 probably needs

00:27:06.480 other potential

00:27:07.460 dissidents to

00:27:08.240 know, well,

00:27:08.900 he didn't

00:27:09.300 die, but

00:27:09.920 he got

00:27:10.240 really close.

00:27:11.960 So Putin

00:27:13.320 is probably

00:27:13.740 just as well

00:27:14.600 off whether

00:27:15.220 he succeeded

00:27:15.920 or he got

00:27:16.560 really close

00:27:17.100 to succeeding.

00:27:17.820 It looks

00:27:18.100 about the

00:27:19.220 same as a

00:27:19.760 warning.

00:27:21.380 But I

00:27:22.260 ask you

00:27:22.660 this question.

00:27:24.660 Given that

00:27:25.400 we know

00:27:25.780 that all

00:27:26.200 the news

00:27:26.700 about the

00:27:27.100 United States,

00:27:28.040 the political

00:27:28.560 news is

00:27:29.640 fake news.

00:27:30.960 I'm exaggerating

00:27:31.720 a little bit.

00:27:32.440 But if you

00:27:32.800 look at the

00:27:33.280 amount of

00:27:33.880 news in

00:27:34.220 the United

00:27:34.520 States that

00:27:34.960 is just

00:27:35.240 unambiguously

00:27:36.060 fake news,

00:27:37.860 why would

00:27:38.440 you think

00:27:38.760 any news

00:27:39.400 about Russia

00:27:39.960 is true?

00:27:41.840 Where's

00:27:42.360 that come

00:27:42.740 from?

00:27:44.020 Who

00:27:44.440 exactly gives

00:27:45.380 you the

00:27:45.780 news about

00:27:46.320 Russia? 0.61

00:27:47.420 Well,

00:27:47.780 you know,

00:27:47.960 the media.

00:27:49.220 But how

00:27:50.960 much of it

00:27:51.460 is true?

00:27:54.060 What if

00:27:54.780 Putin did 0.57

00:27:55.600 not poison

00:27:56.240 that guy?

00:27:57.360 It's

00:27:57.840 possible,

00:27:58.500 right?

00:27:59.120 We all

00:27:59.920 take it

00:28:00.320 as a

00:28:02.120 certainty

00:28:02.580 that because

00:28:03.880 our news

00:28:04.640 has uniformly

00:28:05.940 reported

00:28:06.600 that Putin

00:28:08.220 is almost

00:28:08.800 certainly behind

00:28:09.540 this poisoning

00:28:10.160 and other

00:28:10.820 ones like it,

00:28:12.060 we accept

00:28:12.740 that that's

00:28:13.100 probably true.

00:28:14.980 But wouldn't

00:28:15.820 it be weird

00:28:16.500 if the only

00:28:17.520 news that's

00:28:18.280 true is

00:28:19.740 about Russia?

00:28:21.400 You see

00:28:22.100 where I'm

00:28:22.380 going with

00:28:22.800 this,

00:28:23.000 right?

00:28:23.140 This is

00:28:23.780 like the

00:28:24.280 Gell-Mann 0.99

00:28:25.220 effect where

00:28:25.980 if you're

00:28:26.280 looking at

00:28:26.680 your expertise

00:28:27.740 as reported

00:28:29.120 in the news

00:28:29.740 you know

00:28:30.060 that the

00:28:30.400 news is

00:28:30.740 fake because

00:28:31.480 you're an

00:28:31.760 expert on

00:28:32.220 that subject.

00:28:33.160 But then

00:28:33.580 you don't

00:28:34.020 know that

00:28:34.400 about any

00:28:34.840 other topics

00:28:35.460 so you

00:28:35.660 think,

00:28:35.920 well,

00:28:36.100 maybe those

00:28:36.540 other topics

00:28:37.060 are better.

00:28:38.720 We're doing

00:28:39.340 the same

00:28:39.720 thing with

00:28:40.120 Russia.

00:28:41.220 We're looking

00:28:41.940 at our

00:28:42.260 own news,

00:28:43.180 any news

00:28:43.860 about U.S.

00:28:44.780 politics,

00:28:45.260 and we know

00:28:45.660 it's all

00:28:46.020 fake.

00:28:47.080 But the

00:28:47.660 moment it's

00:28:48.140 about Russia,

00:28:48.840 oh yeah,

00:28:49.180 that's pretty

00:28:49.800 reliable.

00:28:51.000 Yeah,

00:28:51.520 Putin's a

00:28:51.920 poisoner.

00:28:53.140 Now,

00:28:53.780 I believe

00:28:55.160 he did

00:28:55.540 it too.

00:28:56.880 But do

00:28:57.420 I believe

00:28:57.960 it because

00:28:58.520 it's smart?

00:29:00.120 Do I

00:29:00.560 believe it

00:29:01.000 because of

00:29:01.460 the evidence

00:29:02.060 I've looked

00:29:02.600 at?

00:29:03.380 Or do I

00:29:04.160 believe it

00:29:04.720 just because

00:29:05.560 I was told

00:29:06.500 to believe

00:29:06.980 it?

00:29:08.160 Think about

00:29:08.780 it.

00:29:09.460 The reason

00:29:10.120 you believe

00:29:10.780 that Putin

00:29:11.340 poisoned

00:29:11.920 anybody is

00:29:13.480 that you

00:29:13.780 were told

00:29:14.220 to think

00:29:14.660 that.

00:29:15.460 It has

00:29:15.920 nothing to

00:29:16.580 do with

00:29:16.900 your own

00:29:17.240 senses of

00:29:18.000 your own

00:29:19.280 sources,

00:29:20.060 your own

00:29:20.340 wisdom,

00:29:21.420 anything.

00:29:22.680 You were

00:29:23.060 simply

00:29:23.500 told he

00:29:24.600 did it.

00:29:26.380 And again,

00:29:27.100 I believe

00:29:27.480 he did

00:29:27.740 it.

00:29:28.620 But my

00:29:29.120 belief is

00:29:29.800 so disconnected

00:29:30.720 from reason

00:29:31.580 that I'm

00:29:32.700 aware of

00:29:33.220 it.

00:29:33.460 That's

00:29:33.700 pretty bad.

00:29:35.380 Usually

00:29:35.900 we're doing

00:29:37.060 irrational

00:29:37.500 things,

00:29:38.020 but we

00:29:38.260 think at

00:29:38.700 least we're

00:29:39.060 being

00:29:39.280 rational.

00:29:40.260 Here I'm

00:29:40.900 doing a

00:29:41.460 100%

00:29:42.500 irrational

00:29:43.220 thing right

00:29:43.740 in front

00:29:44.000 of you.

00:29:44.680 I'm doing

00:29:45.240 it with

00:29:45.820 no shame.

00:29:47.260 It is

00:29:47.600 my opinion

00:29:48.180 that Putin

00:29:49.240 was behind

00:29:49.880 those

00:29:50.140 poisonings.

00:29:51.280 Here's

00:29:51.920 my good

00:29:52.760 rational

00:29:53.560 argument

00:29:54.080 for it.

00:29:55.400 Nothing.

00:29:57.340 Nothing.

00:29:58.640 I've only

00:29:59.520 been told

00:30:00.120 that by

00:30:01.840 a media

00:30:02.720 that I

00:30:03.860 know not

00:30:04.400 to be

00:30:04.720 reliable.

00:30:05.300 That's it.

00:30:05.960 That's all

00:30:06.460 I know.

00:30:07.460 Why do I

00:30:08.060 believe it?

00:30:09.620 And yet I

00:30:10.440 do.

00:30:11.420 That's scary,

00:30:12.300 right?

00:30:12.820 I do believe

00:30:13.640 it, but I

00:30:15.040 shouldn't.

00:30:15.460 And I

00:30:16.900 can feel

00:30:17.340 that duality

00:30:20.040 in me

00:30:20.420 because they

00:30:21.080 can't both

00:30:21.780 be smart.

00:30:24.440 All right.

00:30:27.220 So there's

00:30:28.280 that.

00:30:30.920 So apparently

00:30:31.960 we've got

00:30:32.600 lots of

00:30:33.600 evidence that

00:30:35.000 China was 0.98

00:30:35.840 trying to

00:30:36.560 influence our

00:30:37.300 elections.

00:30:38.040 So we've

00:30:38.320 got Russia 0.90

00:30:38.860 was trying to

00:30:39.560 influence our

00:30:40.180 elections in

00:30:41.340 addition to

00:30:41.920 getting into

00:30:42.400 our other

00:30:42.960 critical systems

00:30:43.960 all over the

00:30:44.440 country.

00:30:45.460 we see that

00:30:46.240 at least

00:30:47.060 reportedly

00:30:47.700 China and

00:30:48.920 Iran were 0.98

00:30:49.540 both into

00:30:50.100 our elections

00:30:51.200 trying to

00:30:51.660 influence them.

00:30:52.620 Now here's

00:30:53.060 the interesting

00:30:53.520 question.

00:30:55.040 Let's say

00:30:55.660 it's true

00:30:56.280 that Russia,

00:30:58.940 Iran,

00:30:59.440 and China

00:30:59.940 all were

00:31:00.680 trying to

00:31:01.180 influence our

00:31:01.900 election.

00:31:03.900 What direction

00:31:04.900 were they

00:31:05.280 trying to

00:31:05.720 influence it?

00:31:08.000 Are they

00:31:08.760 all on the

00:31:09.540 same side?

00:31:11.040 I'm a little

00:31:11.880 bit confused

00:31:12.580 about this

00:31:13.260 because

00:31:14.280 I would

00:31:15.940 think that

00:31:16.560 China would 0.99

00:31:17.060 like Biden,

00:31:18.860 right?

00:31:19.240 Fair

00:31:19.560 assumption.

00:31:20.700 I would

00:31:21.300 think that

00:31:21.940 Russia

00:31:22.400 maybe

00:31:25.220 prefers

00:31:26.260 Trump.

00:31:27.680 I don't

00:31:28.320 know,

00:31:29.100 but maybe.

00:31:30.600 Or maybe

00:31:31.000 they don't

00:31:31.300 think there's

00:31:31.680 much difference,

00:31:32.380 I don't know.

00:31:33.440 Iran probably

00:31:34.580 prefers Biden,

00:31:36.320 you would

00:31:36.600 think.

00:31:37.620 But what

00:31:39.180 do we know

00:31:39.560 about Putin?

00:31:40.860 So did

00:31:41.280 Putin,

00:31:41.980 Iran,

00:31:42.500 and China

00:31:42.980 all decide

00:31:43.580 they're on

00:31:43.900 the same

00:31:44.280 team when

00:31:45.100 it comes

00:31:45.440 to influencing

00:31:46.140 our elections?

00:31:47.220 Or is it

00:31:49.080 possible that

00:31:50.720 the outside

00:31:51.360 influencers

00:31:52.000 canceled each

00:31:52.840 other out?

00:31:53.700 I mean,

00:31:53.960 roughly speaking,

00:31:54.880 it wouldn't

00:31:55.140 be exact.

00:31:56.740 I don't know.

00:31:57.980 But we have

00:31:58.560 this weird

00:31:59.060 situation where

00:32:00.600 this thing that

00:32:01.420 was designed

00:32:01.980 to be a

00:32:02.480 democratic process

00:32:04.640 within the

00:32:05.200 context of a

00:32:06.040 republic,

00:32:06.440 it turns out

00:32:08.040 that your

00:32:08.380 vote is the

00:32:09.080 least important

00:32:09.780 variable in

00:32:10.520 the entire

00:32:10.880 election,

00:32:11.960 and all of

00:32:12.580 our votes.

00:32:13.580 The things

00:32:14.020 that matter,

00:32:14.980 and Joel

00:32:15.400 Pollack talks

00:32:16.760 about a lot

00:32:17.220 of this in

00:32:17.740 his new

00:32:18.120 book,

00:32:20.320 whose title

00:32:21.700 I always have

00:32:22.260 trouble with,

00:32:23.560 neither fair

00:32:24.760 nor free,

00:32:25.740 I think it

00:32:26.180 is.

00:32:27.080 And it

00:32:27.600 talks about,

00:32:28.080 if you look

00:32:28.440 at the media

00:32:29.180 propaganda,

00:32:30.420 you look at

00:32:30.980 the rules,

00:32:31.980 changes,

00:32:32.600 and the

00:32:32.840 shenanigans

00:32:33.360 with the

00:32:33.840 rules,

00:32:34.200 you look

00:32:35.060 at gerrymandering,

00:32:37.840 you look

00:32:38.220 at the

00:32:39.620 rules,

00:32:40.440 changes about

00:32:41.160 how the

00:32:41.540 votes were

00:32:42.000 counted,

00:32:42.760 you look at

00:32:43.300 the non-transparency

00:32:44.560 of the vote

00:32:45.180 itself,

00:32:45.940 and you just

00:32:46.420 go down the

00:32:46.920 line,

00:32:48.800 and the

00:32:49.300 variable that's

00:32:50.700 the smallest,

00:32:51.740 and then throw 0.51

00:32:52.320 in the foreign

00:32:52.780 interference,

00:32:53.460 etc.,

00:32:53.760 and the

00:32:54.280 smallest

00:32:54.700 variable is

00:32:56.560 the vote.

00:32:58.600 Because all

00:32:59.460 of those other

00:32:59.980 things are

00:33:00.400 bigger than

00:33:01.780 whatever the

00:33:02.360 difference would

00:33:03.380 be if you

00:33:04.120 could actually

00:33:04.560 have a fair

00:33:05.120 and free

00:33:05.460 election without

00:33:06.640 these influences.

00:33:08.100 So, you

00:33:08.560 know, the

00:33:08.860 media can

00:33:09.740 move it more

00:33:10.420 than that

00:33:11.000 difference.

00:33:11.900 Foreign

00:33:12.080 interference,

00:33:12.900 I don't

00:33:13.180 think they've

00:33:13.600 done it yet,

00:33:14.660 but I think

00:33:15.200 they could.

00:33:16.720 You know,

00:33:17.120 if there's

00:33:18.300 fraud, it

00:33:18.920 could easily

00:33:19.360 be big

00:33:19.840 enough.

00:33:21.140 Don't have

00:33:21.620 proof that

00:33:22.080 that happened.

00:33:23.040 But we have

00:33:23.500 this weird

00:33:23.920 situation where

00:33:24.780 the republic

00:33:26.280 and our

00:33:26.800 democratic process

00:33:27.720 is pure

00:33:28.620 placebo.

00:33:30.500 But is

00:33:31.140 that bad?

00:33:31.620 So, when

00:33:34.160 I tell you

00:33:34.600 that our

00:33:34.940 democracy is

00:33:35.780 a placebo,

00:33:36.640 it's completely

00:33:37.140 artificial.

00:33:38.200 There's nothing

00:33:38.900 even close to

00:33:42.060 something like

00:33:42.780 the will of

00:33:43.660 the people

00:33:44.060 being expressed

00:33:44.980 in our votes

00:33:46.160 and all that.

00:33:47.160 On paper, it

00:33:48.160 looks like that.

00:33:49.440 But there's

00:33:49.880 nothing even

00:33:50.480 remotely like

00:33:51.540 that happening.

00:33:52.260 It's just

00:33:52.560 all these

00:33:53.800 different forces

00:33:54.680 of mischief

00:33:55.480 and how they

00:33:56.540 end up

00:33:57.020 balancing out.

00:33:57.800 That's it.

00:33:59.580 It's the

00:34:00.040 forces of

00:34:00.720 mischief.

00:34:02.020 And who's

00:34:02.580 got more

00:34:03.020 mischief on

00:34:03.640 their team

00:34:04.080 in any

00:34:04.440 given year?

00:34:05.340 Who does

00:34:05.900 better at

00:34:06.360 mischief?

00:34:07.320 That's it.

00:34:08.640 That's pretty

00:34:09.680 much the

00:34:10.040 whole game.

00:34:11.700 So,

00:34:12.120 democracy is

00:34:13.100 good and

00:34:13.880 well dead.

00:34:14.440 But here's

00:34:14.760 the interesting

00:34:15.200 thing.

00:34:16.340 Has it ever

00:34:16.940 been different?

00:34:18.620 Certainly,

00:34:19.400 you know,

00:34:19.660 there used

00:34:21.300 to be no

00:34:21.800 social media

00:34:22.480 platforms,

00:34:23.240 etc.

00:34:23.780 So, it's

00:34:24.420 different in

00:34:24.780 that way.

00:34:25.200 But do you

00:34:25.520 think the

00:34:25.920 elections have

00:34:26.580 ever been

00:34:26.980 fair in

00:34:27.900 this country?

00:34:29.000 I really

00:34:29.760 think maybe

00:34:30.340 not.

00:34:32.100 You know,

00:34:32.320 maybe there

00:34:32.720 were some

00:34:33.140 worse than

00:34:34.120 others.

00:34:34.920 And certainly

00:34:35.420 if you had

00:34:35.820 a candidate

00:34:36.300 who gets

00:34:36.720 70% of

00:34:37.580 the vote,

00:34:38.500 probably that's

00:34:39.640 the will

00:34:40.240 of the

00:34:40.480 people.

00:34:41.480 But for

00:34:42.280 anything

00:34:42.540 close,

00:34:44.940 I think

00:34:46.220 it's just

00:34:46.600 a pretend

00:34:47.280 democracy

00:34:49.440 republic

00:34:50.120 situation.

00:34:51.040 We're

00:34:51.480 literally

00:34:51.960 pretending

00:34:52.600 that the

00:34:54.080 vote matters.

00:34:55.160 Now,

00:34:55.700 there's

00:34:56.340 nothing wrong

00:34:56.920 with that.

00:34:58.020 Sounds bad,

00:34:59.080 right?

00:34:59.320 We're just

00:34:59.660 pretending.

00:35:01.220 But probably

00:35:02.340 this is the

00:35:03.100 most important

00:35:03.740 part of the

00:35:04.120 process.

00:35:04.760 Because the

00:35:05.480 point is to

00:35:06.140 convince the

00:35:06.780 public that

00:35:07.380 whatever happened

00:35:08.120 was legitimate.

00:35:09.740 And that's

00:35:10.500 almost as

00:35:11.360 important as

00:35:11.920 deciding,

00:35:12.700 you know,

00:35:13.680 who's going to

00:35:14.440 be running

00:35:14.760 the government.

00:35:15.620 You want the

00:35:16.460 public to say

00:35:17.120 whoever it is,

00:35:18.840 they're

00:35:19.120 legitimate.

00:35:20.380 So the

00:35:21.040 whole voting

00:35:21.680 thing is

00:35:22.300 nothing but a

00:35:23.000 psychological

00:35:23.400 experiment,

00:35:24.480 or a

00:35:25.800 psychological

00:35:26.360 process just

00:35:27.560 to make

00:35:27.900 you feel

00:35:28.260 like you

00:35:29.320 were part

00:35:29.660 of the

00:35:29.840 process,

00:35:30.580 just to

00:35:30.960 make you

00:35:31.400 feel like

00:35:31.800 you had

00:35:32.020 buy-in,

00:35:33.040 just to

00:35:33.620 make you

00:35:33.880 feel like

00:35:34.280 something fair

00:35:34.920 happened.

00:35:35.880 But nothing

00:35:36.400 like that's

00:35:36.920 happening.

00:35:37.340 It's pure

00:35:37.840 theater on

00:35:39.620 top of

00:35:40.240 mischief,

00:35:41.400 basically.

00:35:42.580 All right,

00:35:43.040 I'm going to

00:35:43.460 defend Pete

00:35:44.240 Buttigieg for

00:35:46.460 a moment,

00:35:47.540 who has been

00:35:47.980 chosen, I

00:35:48.460 guess, for

00:35:48.920 the

00:35:49.860 Secretary of

00:35:51.900 Transportation.

00:35:52.360 Now, when

00:35:54.740 Buttigieg was

00:35:55.480 picked to

00:35:56.880 be Secretary

00:35:58.760 of Transportation,

00:36:00.800 a lot of

00:36:01.520 people said

00:36:01.980 to themselves,

00:36:02.900 what exactly

00:36:04.660 is his

00:36:05.500 experience in

00:36:06.760 transportation?

00:36:09.400 And if you

00:36:10.480 said to

00:36:10.800 yourself,

00:36:11.420 wouldn't we

00:36:13.120 be better

00:36:13.700 with, let's

00:36:14.360 say, an

00:36:15.020 expert in

00:36:16.100 transportation?

00:36:18.180 To which I

00:36:19.080 say, probably

00:36:20.740 not.

00:36:21.100 Let me

00:36:23.140 tell you

00:36:23.600 what I

00:36:24.280 know about

00:36:25.100 consultants.

00:36:26.920 And Pete

00:36:27.860 Buttigieg,

00:36:28.620 before he

00:36:29.080 was mayor,

00:36:30.400 before he

00:36:31.020 ran for

00:36:31.280 president, he

00:36:31.780 was a

00:36:32.100 consultant for

00:36:32.800 McKinsey.

00:36:33.780 Now, McKinsey

00:36:34.680 consultants do

00:36:36.560 not hire dumb

00:36:37.740 people.

00:36:38.820 They hire the 1.00

00:36:39.560 smartest people

00:36:40.460 they can get.

00:36:41.240 They like to

00:36:41.680 hire from

00:36:42.120 Harvard, where

00:36:43.000 Pete Buttigieg

00:36:44.160 came from, and

00:36:45.400 also Oxford.

00:36:46.540 So he's got

00:36:46.960 Harvard and

00:36:47.600 Oxford degrees,

00:36:48.460 and he was

00:36:50.000 a McKinsey

00:36:50.700 consultant.

00:36:51.840 Let me

00:36:52.180 explain what

00:36:52.760 a McKinsey

00:36:53.340 consultant does.

00:36:55.420 They are

00:36:55.680 people who

00:36:56.140 are not

00:36:56.620 experts at

00:36:57.920 the industry

00:36:58.580 for which

00:36:59.060 they consult.

00:37:00.340 Now, you

00:37:00.660 say to

00:37:00.920 yourself,

00:37:01.400 isn't that

00:37:02.640 a problem?

00:37:03.840 How do you

00:37:04.320 consult for

00:37:04.980 an industry

00:37:05.560 when the

00:37:07.020 industry knows

00:37:07.680 way more

00:37:08.180 about their

00:37:08.600 industry than

00:37:09.580 you do?

00:37:10.640 How does

00:37:11.260 that work?

00:37:11.740 And the

00:37:12.940 answer is,

00:37:14.100 it works

00:37:14.580 like this.

00:37:17.180 Consulting is

00:37:17.900 largely a

00:37:19.560 fake industry.

00:37:21.280 Everybody who

00:37:22.020 works for a

00:37:22.520 big company

00:37:23.100 and has been

00:37:23.980 in this

00:37:24.320 situation will

00:37:25.040 agree with

00:37:25.560 me.

00:37:26.120 Anybody who

00:37:26.740 hasn't been

00:37:27.340 through this

00:37:27.920 experience will

00:37:28.840 be thinking,

00:37:30.240 I don't know

00:37:30.700 if that's

00:37:31.040 true.

00:37:31.440 That doesn't

00:37:32.820 sound quite

00:37:33.320 true.

00:37:34.620 Look at the

00:37:35.140 other comments,

00:37:36.340 and when I

00:37:36.920 tell you how

00:37:37.380 the world

00:37:37.820 really works,

00:37:38.720 look at the

00:37:39.100 other comments,

00:37:39.740 and you'll

00:37:39.980 see the

00:37:40.280 agreement from

00:37:40.920 the people

00:37:41.220 who have

00:37:41.440 this

00:37:41.620 experience.

00:37:43.000 The point

00:37:43.500 of hiring

00:37:44.280 expensive

00:37:45.120 consultants

00:37:45.700 for your

00:37:46.340 business is

00:37:48.040 so that the

00:37:49.900 smart employees

00:37:50.940 at your

00:37:51.440 company can

00:37:52.920 finally get

00:37:54.840 their way.

00:37:57.040 That's what

00:37:57.680 consultants do

00:37:58.460 for you.

00:37:59.240 Because in

00:37:59.900 every group,

00:38:00.440 you've got your

00:38:00.840 smart ones and

00:38:01.480 your dumb

00:38:01.800 ones, and

00:38:02.720 there are many

00:38:03.180 situations where

00:38:04.000 the smart ones

00:38:04.740 can't convince

00:38:05.680 the dumb ones

00:38:06.340 to see their

00:38:06.980 point of view,

00:38:08.220 because that's

00:38:08.840 part of being

00:38:09.260 dumb, right?

00:38:09.840 You can't see

00:38:10.340 a smart opinion.

00:38:11.000 It's invisible.

00:38:12.560 And sometimes

00:38:13.040 that's your

00:38:13.580 boss, or at

00:38:14.480 least the

00:38:14.800 boss looks at

00:38:15.960 the staff and

00:38:16.560 says, I'm

00:38:17.420 getting different

00:38:17.980 opinions here.

00:38:19.620 And the

00:38:19.960 boss doesn't

00:38:20.520 want to just

00:38:20.920 pick one,

00:38:21.840 because then

00:38:22.360 it's the

00:38:22.860 boss's

00:38:23.320 responsibility if

00:38:24.320 something goes

00:38:24.920 wrong.

00:38:25.820 So what does

00:38:26.520 the boss do

00:38:27.100 to solve this

00:38:27.880 problem where

00:38:29.160 the boss doesn't

00:38:29.900 know what to

00:38:30.380 do and doesn't

00:38:32.060 want to make

00:38:32.520 the bad

00:38:33.040 opinion?

00:38:33.780 They hire an 1.00

00:38:34.780 expensive

00:38:35.280 consultant.

00:38:35.940 consultant.

00:38:36.600 What happens

00:38:37.260 if the boss

00:38:38.440 takes the

00:38:39.060 advice of the

00:38:39.860 expensive

00:38:40.360 consultants and

00:38:42.020 it doesn't

00:38:42.420 work out?

00:38:44.200 Well, the

00:38:44.860 boss has a

00:38:45.440 pretty good

00:38:45.920 excuse then,

00:38:46.620 doesn't he?

00:38:47.660 He's like,

00:38:48.080 look, I

00:38:48.560 hired the

00:38:49.020 world-class

00:38:49.760 consultants.

00:38:50.760 I took their

00:38:51.380 advice.

00:38:51.920 It didn't

00:38:52.280 work out.

00:38:53.420 I'm still a

00:38:54.020 great manager

00:38:54.600 because I did

00:38:55.700 everything you're

00:38:56.240 supposed to do.

00:38:56.820 We just didn't

00:38:57.540 get lucky this

00:38:58.160 time.

00:38:59.000 It's a pretty

00:38:59.320 good argument.

00:39:00.500 I did everything

00:39:01.220 you should do.

00:39:02.280 Not everything

00:39:03.120 works every time.

00:39:03.900 So the first

00:39:05.440 thing that a

00:39:05.980 consultant does

00:39:06.620 is it makes

00:39:07.220 the boss

00:39:07.860 more secure

00:39:09.420 and also gives

00:39:11.360 them an argument

00:39:11.920 that they can

00:39:12.500 take to their

00:39:13.080 boss.

00:39:13.800 Hey, these

00:39:14.340 consultants say

00:39:15.140 this is a good

00:39:15.720 idea.

00:39:16.520 I can sell

00:39:17.080 this to my

00:39:17.580 boss now if

00:39:18.780 just my

00:39:19.220 employees say

00:39:19.900 it is not

00:39:20.320 as strong.

00:39:21.720 So the

00:39:22.160 McKinsey people

00:39:24.240 go into

00:39:24.780 business and

00:39:26.320 they sit with

00:39:27.040 all the experts

00:39:27.820 in the industry,

00:39:28.920 some of the

00:39:29.300 dumb ones and

00:39:29.880 some of the

00:39:30.240 smart ones,

00:39:30.760 but they all

00:39:31.100 work for the

00:39:31.480 same company,

00:39:32.560 and they say,

00:39:33.680 all right,

00:39:33.900 we've got a

00:39:34.460 bunch of

00:39:34.760 questions because

00:39:35.840 they have sort

00:39:36.340 of a framework

00:39:37.080 or a process

00:39:38.180 that they apply

00:39:39.520 to every

00:39:39.860 situation.

00:39:40.720 There's sort

00:39:41.020 of a standard

00:39:41.700 way to start

00:39:43.400 digging in and

00:39:44.140 analyzing things.

00:39:45.700 So the

00:39:45.960 McKinsey people

00:39:46.700 start asking

00:39:47.360 lots of

00:39:47.740 questions and

00:39:48.320 interviewing your

00:39:49.040 staff, and

00:39:50.420 they very quickly

00:39:51.200 learn who the

00:39:52.060 idiots are and

00:39:53.400 who the smart

00:39:53.980 ones are, and

00:39:55.400 they start

00:39:55.840 winnowing out

00:39:56.540 the idiots, they

00:39:58.140 start listening to

00:39:59.200 the smart ones,

00:40:00.220 and they take

00:40:00.900 what the smart

00:40:01.480 ones say and

00:40:02.200 they put it into

00:40:02.800 graphs and

00:40:03.540 charts and

00:40:03.680 spreadsheets and

00:40:05.380 make it look like

00:40:06.240 a real proper

00:40:06.840 package, and

00:40:08.180 then they take

00:40:08.660 that to the

00:40:09.260 boss of the

00:40:09.960 smart people and

00:40:10.660 they say, this

00:40:11.640 is what we

00:40:12.340 McKinsey say

00:40:13.820 you should do.

00:40:15.100 What they don't

00:40:16.000 say is, you

00:40:17.020 know, all we

00:40:17.380 did is package

00:40:18.000 up what your

00:40:18.520 smart people

00:40:19.040 said, but

00:40:20.220 that's all

00:40:20.580 they do.

00:40:22.040 They might act

00:40:23.320 like they're

00:40:23.680 adding something,

00:40:24.540 but maybe not

00:40:25.580 so much,

00:40:26.380 right?

00:40:26.640 So, my point

00:40:28.980 is that Pete

00:40:29.980 Buttigieg, having

00:40:31.040 gone through this

00:40:31.700 process of being

00:40:32.520 a McKinsey

00:40:33.060 person whose

00:40:34.220 specific training

00:40:35.700 is to go into

00:40:37.120 a new situation

00:40:39.600 which they are

00:40:40.120 not experts in,

00:40:41.600 quickly become

00:40:42.620 experts, because

00:40:43.640 they're so damn

00:40:44.180 smart, I mean a

00:40:45.500 big part of their

00:40:46.180 success is they're

00:40:47.260 crazy smart.

00:40:48.780 The McKinsey

00:40:49.420 people, they're not

00:40:50.700 normal smart,

00:40:51.660 they're crazy

00:40:52.520 smart.

00:40:52.920 And they just

00:40:55.300 package up your

00:40:56.000 smart people's

00:40:56.600 ideas and sell

00:40:57.540 it back to you

00:40:58.120 and take their

00:40:58.680 money, suddenly it

00:41:00.420 becomes credible

00:41:01.220 looking within the

00:41:02.080 company, etc.

00:41:02.980 So, what Pete

00:41:04.380 Buttigieg brings to

00:41:05.620 the Department of

00:41:06.440 Transportation is

00:41:07.920 exactly, exactly

00:41:10.920 what you want.

00:41:12.960 Because I've got to

00:41:13.660 think that the

00:41:14.240 Transportation

00:41:14.740 Department is

00:41:15.560 really complicated

00:41:16.400 and probably has a

00:41:18.080 bunch of

00:41:18.480 inefficiencies that

00:41:20.440 a McKinsey

00:41:21.720 consultant or

00:41:22.620 somebody trained

00:41:23.260 to be one, is

00:41:24.740 going to be able

00:41:25.340 to find.

00:41:27.320 And if the only

00:41:28.540 process that Pete

00:41:29.540 Buttigieg does is

00:41:31.140 the McKinsey

00:41:31.760 process, where he

00:41:34.340 figures out fairly

00:41:35.300 quickly who the

00:41:36.080 smart people are,

00:41:37.460 and then he does

00:41:39.120 what the smart

00:41:39.680 people want.

00:41:40.400 He just packages

00:41:41.080 it up.

00:41:42.240 So, I'm going to

00:41:44.160 say, and maybe

00:41:45.460 you don't want to

00:41:46.300 hear this, but I

00:41:47.420 think this Biden

00:41:50.060 pick for a

00:41:51.320 cabinet position,

00:41:52.640 one of the best

00:41:53.600 I've ever seen.

00:41:55.200 This isn't just

00:41:56.180 a, you know, sort

00:41:57.220 of a political

00:41:57.860 pick.

00:41:58.280 I think people

00:41:58.780 thought that.

00:41:59.780 This is one of

00:42:00.600 the most perfectly

00:42:01.800 on-the-nose

00:42:03.040 appointments I've

00:42:05.220 ever seen.

00:42:06.320 This is really

00:42:06.960 strong.

00:42:07.640 And if Biden

00:42:08.480 could do more

00:42:09.300 like this, I'm

00:42:10.900 not going to have

00:42:11.460 a big problem

00:42:12.080 with him.

00:42:13.500 Right?

00:42:13.900 If he can

00:42:15.180 reproduce this, we

00:42:17.260 don't know that he

00:42:17.820 can.

00:42:18.300 But this is just

00:42:18.980 inspired.

00:42:19.800 This is exactly

00:42:20.500 the right person

00:42:21.840 and the right

00:42:22.220 job, in my

00:42:22.800 opinion.

00:42:25.460 Twitter user,

00:42:26.520 human being,

00:42:27.560 that's just the

00:42:28.340 Twitter name,

00:42:29.780 tweets this at me.

00:42:31.160 Scott, I'm

00:42:31.860 heartbroken tonight.

00:42:33.120 My beautiful

00:42:33.700 five-year-old

00:42:34.520 Deese and her

00:42:35.760 two sisters'

00:42:36.820 mother is in

00:42:37.500 the hospital

00:42:38.100 dying of

00:42:39.000 fentanyl use.

00:42:40.580 Please send

00:42:42.160 an extra

00:42:42.540 loud and

00:42:43.120 angry fuck

00:42:43.880 you to

00:42:44.360 China for

00:42:45.160 me tomorrow.

00:42:46.980 Happy to

00:42:47.580 do it.

00:42:49.180 Happy to

00:42:49.820 do it.

00:42:50.980 China,

00:42:52.600 fuck you. 0.97

00:42:55.800 And China, 0.79

00:42:57.480 you are my

00:42:57.940 enemy.

00:42:58.400 You're not my

00:42:58.860 nemesis.

00:42:59.760 You're not my

00:43:00.280 adversary.

00:43:01.000 You're not my

00:43:01.500 competition.

00:43:02.660 You're my

00:43:03.080 fucking enemy.

00:43:04.920 And we

00:43:06.800 should treat

00:43:08.320 it like that.

00:43:09.940 So fuck

00:43:10.560 you,

00:43:11.200 China,

00:43:11.640 for killing

00:43:12.960 my stepson

00:43:13.960 and fuck 0.87

00:43:14.800 you for what

00:43:15.440 you've done

00:43:15.880 to human

00:43:17.680 beings of

00:43:18.300 the family.

00:43:19.660 You fucking

00:43:20.780 fuckers. 1.00

00:43:22.160 All right.

00:43:23.240 One of my

00:43:24.000 big pleasures

00:43:25.000 on Twitter

00:43:25.620 is watching

00:43:27.400 Andres

00:43:28.220 Backhouse

00:43:28.940 destroy

00:43:29.560 people's

00:43:30.320 data-related

00:43:32.200 claims.

00:43:33.580 It's really

00:43:34.480 entertaining.

00:43:35.640 So somebody

00:43:36.300 will tweet,

00:43:37.200 look at my

00:43:37.780 graph.

00:43:38.500 It proves

00:43:39.280 something about

00:43:40.120 Sweden or

00:43:40.800 masks or

00:43:41.560 something about

00:43:42.780 coronavirus.

00:43:44.240 And it

00:43:44.460 takes

00:43:44.700 approximately

00:43:45.340 10 minutes

00:43:46.460 for Andres

00:43:48.780 to come in

00:43:49.800 and say,

00:43:50.640 and the

00:43:51.160 reason you

00:43:51.520 got this

00:43:51.900 wrong is,

00:43:52.960 and what's

00:43:53.400 funny about

00:43:53.920 it is he

00:43:54.900 uses only

00:43:55.440 public sources.

00:43:57.400 So Andres

00:43:58.020 is debunking

00:43:59.060 one thing

00:43:59.760 after another

00:44:00.380 using nothing

00:44:01.500 but stuff

00:44:02.020 you can

00:44:02.360 Google.

00:44:03.140 It takes

00:44:03.760 him 10

00:44:04.140 minutes and

00:44:04.840 he's debunking

00:44:05.520 95% of

00:44:07.240 everything you

00:44:07.840 see posted

00:44:08.360 on Twitter.

00:44:09.780 And when you

00:44:10.140 read the

00:44:10.440 claim and

00:44:10.920 then you

00:44:11.200 read the

00:44:11.540 debunk,

00:44:12.600 the debunk

00:44:13.160 always looks

00:44:13.640 stronger.

00:44:14.760 I don't

00:44:15.080 know if

00:44:15.540 that's just

00:44:15.940 because debunks

00:44:16.740 always look

00:44:17.240 stronger.

00:44:18.620 But watching

00:44:19.580 him demolish

00:44:20.640 these claims

00:44:23.240 on Twitter is

00:44:23.880 just really

00:44:24.200 fun.

00:44:24.540 You should

00:44:24.760 follow him.

00:44:25.860 Andres

00:44:26.240 Backhouse,

00:44:26.980 B-A-C-K-H-A-U-S. 1.00

00:44:29.560 I've seen

00:44:32.320 people speaking

00:44:33.280 of claims.

00:44:34.080 Oh, one of the

00:44:34.740 claims he was

00:44:35.420 debunking is

00:44:36.420 that the

00:44:38.640 Sweden total

00:44:40.040 death, not

00:44:40.740 just the

00:44:41.140 pandemic deaths,

00:44:42.680 but the

00:44:43.180 total deaths

00:44:43.900 in Sweden

00:44:44.540 are actually

00:44:45.340 not so bad.

00:44:48.100 And he

00:44:48.540 debunked that

00:44:49.340 in two

00:44:50.060 minutes.

00:44:52.240 Here's another

00:44:53.040 thing I would

00:44:53.600 like to debunk.

00:44:55.340 So I've seen

00:44:56.280 a number of

00:44:57.060 tweets and

00:44:57.980 analyses and

00:44:59.000 I believe there

00:44:59.440 was an

00:44:59.700 expert who

00:45:00.560 testified to

00:45:02.620 this, that

00:45:03.700 if you looked

00:45:04.280 at all the

00:45:04.700 anomalies in

00:45:05.600 the election,

00:45:06.280 presidential

00:45:06.560 election, that

00:45:08.000 the odds of

00:45:08.980 all those

00:45:09.580 anomalies

00:45:10.140 happening and

00:45:11.280 Biden still

00:45:12.040 being the

00:45:12.600 president would

00:45:14.020 be one in a

00:45:15.020 quadrillion or

00:45:15.840 whatever it is.

00:45:16.880 And I don't

00:45:17.800 think you can

00:45:18.360 calculate those

00:45:19.240 odds.

00:45:20.260 Here's why.

00:45:21.360 You can

00:45:22.080 calculate the

00:45:22.800 odds of things

00:45:23.560 that are very

00:45:24.100 similar.

00:45:26.580 Of course,

00:45:27.420 it's just the

00:45:27.840 odds.

00:45:28.240 You can't

00:45:28.660 know what's

00:45:29.300 going to

00:45:29.480 happen.

00:45:30.200 But I

00:45:30.520 think if,

00:45:31.080 let's say,

00:45:31.980 if the

00:45:32.480 last election

00:45:33.220 were two

00:45:33.780 normal-ish

00:45:34.560 candidates in

00:45:35.500 a normal

00:45:35.980 year, you

00:45:37.320 could pretty 0.51

00:45:37.760 much say that

00:45:38.520 maybe things

00:45:39.300 about that

00:45:39.740 would be

00:45:40.040 similar the

00:45:41.260 next year.

00:45:42.220 But if you

00:45:42.700 have a

00:45:42.980 situation that's

00:45:43.720 completely

00:45:44.300 unique, I

00:45:46.240 don't think

00:45:46.560 you can

00:45:46.880 calculate the

00:45:47.560 odds, can

00:45:48.740 you?

00:45:49.220 And the

00:45:49.840 completely

00:45:50.220 unique part

00:45:50.900 is Trump.

00:45:52.920 You throw

00:45:53.540 Trump into

00:45:54.540 the election

00:45:55.360 cycle and

00:45:56.460 suddenly none

00:45:57.180 of the rules

00:45:57.820 and none

00:45:58.260 of the

00:45:58.460 history and

00:45:59.340 everything you

00:46:00.300 thought before,

00:46:01.480 none of it

00:46:01.960 holds.

00:46:02.920 Now, if you

00:46:04.380 have something

00:46:04.820 that just

00:46:05.240 changes the

00:46:06.040 nature of the

00:46:06.580 situation so

00:46:07.320 much, how

00:46:08.460 do you

00:46:08.740 calculate the

00:46:09.480 odds of

00:46:10.680 something that's

00:46:11.280 never happened

00:46:12.060 happening?

00:46:14.200 And I feel

00:46:15.140 like it's just

00:46:15.740 magical thinking

00:46:16.700 that we could

00:46:17.380 know the odds

00:46:18.160 that Biden

00:46:19.740 would win in

00:46:20.660 the context of,

00:46:21.840 say, bellwether

00:46:23.100 states that didn't

00:46:24.020 go the way you

00:46:24.680 would expect

00:46:25.140 them to, and

00:46:25.900 counties that

00:46:27.120 reliably go one

00:46:28.160 way usually but

00:46:29.100 didn't this

00:46:29.680 time.

00:46:31.040 I just feel like

00:46:32.380 it's not

00:46:32.780 calculable.

00:46:33.840 And I guess,

00:46:34.640 Andres, if

00:46:35.420 you're watching

00:46:36.680 this, I'd like

00:46:37.400 your opinion on

00:46:38.000 this.

00:46:38.340 I feel like it's

00:46:39.300 nonsense.

00:46:41.000 I feel as if

00:46:41.960 this was just a

00:46:43.580 one-off situation.

00:46:45.040 There was nothing

00:46:45.620 like Biden

00:46:46.300 running against

00:46:47.360 Trump.

00:46:48.220 Just never been

00:46:49.140 in this situation.

00:46:50.340 So everything you

00:46:51.040 can say about

00:46:51.660 what that would

00:46:52.240 have looked like

00:46:52.800 before, even

00:46:54.360 with similar

00:46:55.480 voting patterns

00:46:56.360 of Democrats

00:46:57.280 and Republicans

00:46:58.060 in certain areas.

00:46:59.280 Even with all

00:46:59.940 that, I feel

00:47:00.680 like it's just

00:47:01.120 too different.

00:47:02.660 So I discount

00:47:03.860 all that.

00:47:05.300 There was also

00:47:06.060 a story that

00:47:07.580 China owned 0.98

00:47:08.700 some part of

00:47:09.920 a company that

00:47:10.900 owned part of

00:47:11.880 Dominion.

00:47:12.900 Do you remember

00:47:13.300 that story?

00:47:14.020 Did you all see

00:47:14.520 that?

00:47:15.140 I feel like

00:47:15.600 that's, I

00:47:16.640 think I saw

00:47:17.140 that that's

00:47:17.580 debunked as

00:47:18.340 well.

00:47:19.200 And that the

00:47:19.880 nature of the

00:47:20.760 ownership of

00:47:21.500 those countries

00:47:22.120 or companies

00:47:23.240 was just

00:47:23.760 misinterpreted.

00:47:25.360 So I feel

00:47:26.240 as though

00:47:26.640 China has 0.91

00:47:27.580 some interest

00:47:28.260 or ownership

00:47:29.640 in the

00:47:30.200 Dominion voting

00:47:31.620 system.

00:47:32.120 I think that's

00:47:32.520 fake news.

00:47:33.640 Now, let's

00:47:35.120 do a little

00:47:35.680 recap.

00:47:38.060 How many

00:47:38.880 claims have

00:47:39.800 you seen

00:47:40.380 about

00:47:40.920 coronavirus,

00:47:42.900 for example,

00:47:44.700 that turned

00:47:47.280 out to be

00:47:48.000 true or

00:47:49.120 fake?

00:47:49.440 And this

00:47:51.540 is one of

00:47:51.880 those times

00:47:52.260 where it's

00:47:52.600 good to

00:47:52.940 look back

00:47:53.580 and see

00:47:53.880 how many

00:47:54.180 times you

00:47:54.600 were right.

00:47:55.920 How many

00:47:56.480 times did

00:47:57.260 you say,

00:47:57.700 ah, I

00:47:58.660 hear that's

00:47:59.160 in the

00:47:59.380 news, but

00:47:59.880 I think

00:48:00.120 that's

00:48:00.460 fake, and

00:48:01.340 how many

00:48:01.600 times were

00:48:02.000 you right?

00:48:03.180 Or vice

00:48:03.880 versa?

00:48:04.380 You thought,

00:48:05.320 maybe you

00:48:05.800 thought masks

00:48:06.920 don't work,

00:48:07.940 but then you're

00:48:09.340 convinced that

00:48:10.080 they do, so

00:48:11.280 you changed

00:48:11.660 your mind.

00:48:11.960 How many

00:48:12.200 times have

00:48:12.580 you changed

00:48:13.100 your mind

00:48:13.820 during the

00:48:16.300 coronavirus?

00:48:17.340 Because I

00:48:17.660 would say I

00:48:18.160 have.

00:48:19.420 I'm pretty

00:48:19.800 sure I've

00:48:20.240 changed my

00:48:20.700 mind on a

00:48:21.220 number of

00:48:21.500 things.

00:48:24.400 Somebody says,

00:48:25.540 I'm seeing in

00:48:26.080 the comments,

00:48:26.640 that China 0.93

00:48:27.000 owns 75% of

00:48:29.540 something in

00:48:30.040 an investor

00:48:30.460 form.

00:48:31.220 So the

00:48:31.580 debunk to

00:48:32.520 that, yeah,

00:48:35.140 there's, I'm

00:48:35.760 reading in the

00:48:36.220 comments now,

00:48:36.780 UBS 75%,

00:48:38.500 China is 400 0.99

00:48:39.920 million,

00:48:40.500 two million,

00:48:41.200 yeah, I

00:48:41.820 think that

00:48:42.200 that's simply

00:48:44.400 a misread of

00:48:46.680 the bank's

00:48:47.720 role.

00:48:48.300 I think the

00:48:48.720 bank just

00:48:50.220 did a

00:48:50.580 transaction.

00:48:51.340 I think

00:48:51.580 that's the

00:48:52.040 whole story.

00:48:53.280 So I

00:48:54.260 believe the

00:48:55.000 real financial

00:48:55.780 people looking

00:48:56.500 at that

00:48:56.860 story have

00:48:58.140 debunked it,

00:48:59.040 but that's

00:49:00.220 just what I

00:49:00.620 think.

00:49:01.560 All right.

00:49:05.460 Here's the

00:49:06.700 prediction that

00:49:07.640 I made in

00:49:08.140 the beginning.

00:49:08.620 I told you

00:49:09.060 that 95%

00:49:11.840 of the

00:49:12.440 specific

00:49:13.040 claims you

00:49:14.000 hear about

00:49:14.480 the coronavirus

00:49:15.220 would later

00:49:16.000 prove to be

00:49:16.780 false.

00:49:17.920 Also, 95%

00:49:19.660 of the

00:49:20.340 election fraud

00:49:21.420 claims would

00:49:22.720 prove to be

00:49:23.480 false.

00:49:24.400 But let's

00:49:24.860 just talk

00:49:25.240 about the

00:49:25.540 election.

00:49:28.180 Wouldn't

00:49:28.580 you say,

00:49:29.720 don't you

00:49:30.100 think it's

00:49:30.380 fair to

00:49:30.660 say that

00:49:31.000 95% of

00:49:32.220 the election

00:49:32.740 fraud

00:49:33.400 claims,

00:49:34.720 specific

00:49:35.280 claims,

00:49:36.320 wouldn't

00:49:36.580 you say

00:49:36.820 95% of

00:49:37.760 them have

00:49:38.100 been debunked,

00:49:39.240 pretty much

00:49:39.920 exactly like

00:49:40.680 I told you

00:49:41.160 what's going

00:49:41.460 to happen.

00:49:42.380 Now, the

00:49:42.700 other 5%,

00:49:43.400 I wouldn't

00:49:43.960 say they're

00:49:44.340 necessarily

00:49:44.860 confirmed,

00:49:45.900 they might

00:49:46.360 just be

00:49:46.960 not yet

00:49:48.180 debunked,

00:49:49.420 but it

00:49:51.800 is completely

00:49:52.660 compatible.

00:49:54.040 I've seen

00:49:54.380 the people

00:49:54.720 say no.

00:49:55.400 All the

00:49:55.780 people who

00:49:56.080 say no

00:49:56.420 are wrong.

00:49:57.640 If you

00:49:57.860 were to

00:49:58.760 just make

00:49:59.220 a list,

00:50:00.400 just a

00:50:01.200 list of

00:50:01.820 all the

00:50:02.280 claims,

00:50:03.520 and then

00:50:04.100 you check

00:50:04.720 the list

00:50:05.140 for a

00:50:05.500 debunk,

00:50:06.340 you would

00:50:06.840 find that

00:50:07.260 95% of

00:50:08.180 them have

00:50:08.480 a debunk

00:50:09.080 that's

00:50:09.400 stronger than

00:50:09.900 the claim.

00:50:10.840 Now,

00:50:11.380 hold on,

00:50:12.140 I know I'm

00:50:12.480 getting you

00:50:13.120 too angry

00:50:13.560 here.

00:50:15.640 It can

00:50:16.320 be true

00:50:16.880 that 95%

00:50:18.380 of the

00:50:18.900 specific

00:50:19.420 claims of

00:50:20.300 election fraud

00:50:21.120 are untrue.

00:50:23.120 At the same

00:50:24.460 time, it can

00:50:25.040 be 100%

00:50:25.880 true that

00:50:27.020 the election

00:50:27.500 was stolen.

00:50:28.820 Do you

00:50:29.220 get, do you

00:50:30.740 understand,

00:50:31.380 there's no

00:50:31.740 conflict there?

00:50:33.380 You could

00:50:33.960 have 100%

00:50:34.740 chance that

00:50:35.320 the election

00:50:35.700 really was

00:50:36.340 stolen,

00:50:36.700 while no

00:50:38.500 conflict with

00:50:39.260 the fact

00:50:39.580 that 95%

00:50:40.600 of the

00:50:40.880 evidence is

00:50:41.520 not real.

00:50:43.140 Right?

00:50:44.260 There's no

00:50:44.960 conflict.

00:50:45.680 In fact,

00:50:46.280 that's exactly

00:50:47.000 what you

00:50:47.440 would predict.

00:50:48.520 You would

00:50:49.200 predict exactly

00:50:50.320 this situation,

00:50:51.100 and I did.

00:50:51.780 I predicted

00:50:52.440 in public

00:50:53.740 exactly this

00:50:55.040 situation,

00:50:55.900 which is that

00:50:56.740 most of the

00:50:57.760 claims would

00:50:58.280 be debunked.

00:50:59.640 And that's

00:51:00.180 because of

00:51:00.520 confirmation

00:51:00.920 bias.

00:51:01.880 So once you

00:51:02.460 get it in your

00:51:03.020 head that

00:51:03.680 there's something

00:51:04.500 here,

00:51:05.520 you see it

00:51:06.120 everywhere.

00:51:07.180 So confirmation

00:51:07.880 bias is very 1.00

00:51:08.980 predictable.

00:51:09.900 It was obvious

00:51:10.820 that there would

00:51:11.480 be more false

00:51:12.320 claims than

00:51:12.920 real ones,

00:51:13.800 even if real

00:51:14.460 ones exist.

00:51:15.420 It's also

00:51:16.000 obvious that

00:51:17.740 if you have a

00:51:18.280 system that

00:51:18.820 can be

00:51:20.020 gamed with

00:51:21.680 fraud,

00:51:22.740 and the

00:51:23.100 payoff is

00:51:23.660 very high if

00:51:24.520 you were to

00:51:24.860 get away with

00:51:25.360 it, of

00:51:26.260 course it

00:51:26.680 happened.

00:51:27.540 There isn't

00:51:27.920 any doubt

00:51:28.320 that it

00:51:28.600 happened.

00:51:29.540 It's just

00:51:29.960 that it's

00:51:30.140 hard to

00:51:30.460 prove.

00:51:31.340 So the

00:51:32.060 election isn't

00:51:32.680 going to be

00:51:32.940 changed.

00:51:34.080 But somebody

00:51:35.500 said you

00:51:35.900 predict both

00:51:36.620 sides of

00:51:37.120 everything.

00:51:37.760 Are you

00:51:38.120 fucking

00:51:38.420 stupid?

00:51:40.180 You predict

00:51:41.200 both sides

00:51:41.780 of everything.

00:51:42.620 Are you

00:51:43.200 intentionally

00:51:45.300 trying to be

00:51:46.040 the dumbest

00:51:46.680 comment on

00:51:48.120 here?

00:51:48.940 Because I

00:51:49.480 just told you

00:51:50.100 that those

00:51:50.580 two things

00:51:51.120 are not in

00:51:51.660 conflict.

00:51:52.760 That's really

00:51:53.500 the whole

00:51:53.840 point.

00:51:55.260 So your

00:51:55.940 comment that

00:51:56.560 I predict

00:51:57.360 both sides

00:51:58.020 of something

00:51:58.480 is really

00:51:59.320 fucking stupid. 0.85

00:52:01.600 If you

00:52:02.280 were listening.

00:52:02.700 Did I

00:52:08.100 seem a

00:52:08.440 little

00:52:08.540 triggered?

00:52:09.460 Have you

00:52:10.940 noticed that

00:52:11.420 in the

00:52:11.640 holiday season

00:52:12.380 people get

00:52:12.940 a little

00:52:13.160 tense?

00:52:14.820 You can

00:52:15.560 get wound

00:52:18.300 up pretty

00:52:18.740 quickly.

00:52:22.540 Like

00:52:23.060 Spygate.

00:52:24.100 Which one

00:52:24.760 was Spygate?

00:52:25.580 I don't

00:52:27.360 even remember

00:52:27.800 what Spygate

00:52:28.440 was.

00:52:28.760 somebody

00:52:31.980 says 95%

00:52:33.060 of claims

00:52:33.560 could not

00:52:34.060 be proved.

00:52:35.440 Not that

00:52:36.140 they're true.

00:52:36.600 No, I'll

00:52:36.940 say that 95%

00:52:38.040 have been

00:52:38.480 debunked.

00:52:39.580 So I

00:52:40.900 hear what

00:52:41.480 you're saying

00:52:41.900 but I

00:52:42.740 disagree with

00:52:43.540 it.

00:52:44.580 All right.

00:52:45.720 You are

00:52:46.060 very wrong,

00:52:47.460 say people

00:52:48.000 in the

00:52:49.600 comments.

00:52:50.440 Totally

00:52:50.860 wrong.

00:52:55.600 So there's

00:52:56.320 a separate

00:52:56.700 issue as

00:52:57.480 I'm being

00:52:57.800 prompted in

00:52:58.420 the comments.

00:52:59.780 It is

00:53:00.200 true that

00:53:00.640 the courts

00:53:01.260 have not

00:53:02.480 ruled on

00:53:03.400 a lot of

00:53:04.440 the specifics.

00:53:05.640 That's not

00:53:06.360 quite what

00:53:06.820 I'm talking

00:53:07.280 about.

00:53:07.960 I'm talking

00:53:08.640 about if

00:53:09.080 you go to

00:53:09.600 Twitter and

00:53:10.540 you see

00:53:10.920 any claim,

00:53:12.440 whether it

00:53:13.100 got into a

00:53:13.740 court case

00:53:14.240 or not,

00:53:15.260 you will

00:53:15.700 see a

00:53:16.060 debunk

00:53:16.560 95% of

00:53:18.420 the time.

00:53:19.260 That's

00:53:19.480 pretty good.

00:53:22.800 All

00:53:23.000 right.

00:53:26.560 So

00:53:27.080 Bitcoin's

00:53:27.780 still going

00:53:28.180 up?

00:53:29.960 Somebody

00:53:30.400 said.

00:53:30.880 Let's

00:53:31.100 see what

00:53:31.340 our

00:53:31.480 Bitcoin

00:53:31.780 situation

00:53:32.460 is

00:53:32.760 here.

00:53:35.560 Oh my

00:53:36.220 God.

00:53:37.320 Bitcoin is

00:53:38.240 really going

00:53:38.980 up.

00:53:40.280 Okay.

00:53:41.560 Cool.

00:53:42.500 I was going

00:53:42.940 to do a

00:53:43.420 special class

00:53:44.460 on investing,

00:53:45.600 some investing

00:53:46.320 stuff, but I

00:53:47.260 haven't decided

00:53:47.800 whether to do

00:53:48.400 that yet.

00:53:49.200 All right,

00:53:49.440 that's enough

00:53:49.780 for now.

00:53:50.120 I'll talk

00:53:50.860 to you

00:53:51.260 later.

00:53:54.160 And

00:53:54.680 YouTube

00:53:55.920 people,

00:53:56.600 got a few

00:53:57.420 more minutes

00:53:58.100 with me.

00:53:59.700 What's

00:54:00.140 Trump's

00:54:00.620 next move?

00:54:03.440 My guess

00:54:04.280 is he's

00:54:04.680 looking at

00:54:05.240 all of his

00:54:05.720 options for

00:54:06.380 the next

00:54:06.660 four years

00:54:07.300 and probably

00:54:09.400 hasn't decided

00:54:10.080 yet.

00:54:14.220 All right,

00:54:15.020 I guess that's

00:54:15.500 all for now.

00:54:16.280 We'll talk to

00:54:17.000 you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - December 17, 2020

Episode 1222 Scott Adams： Toobin Holds His Post, Putin's Excellent Schemes, Vaccination Cognitive Dissonance

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