Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1240 Scott Adams： My Impression of Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler Negotiating, China Bad, Election Audit, More

00:00:00.000 Oh, hey, come on in. Come on in. It's time for Coffee with Scott Adams. You came to the right

00:00:09.960 place. It's good to see you. You too. You too. Good to see you. Good to see you. Come on in.

00:00:16.300 Grab a chair. And if you get here in time, do you know what you get to enjoy? Yeah. Yeah. The whole

00:00:23.160 thing is amazing from beginning to end. It's called Coffee with Scott Adams and it's the best

00:00:28.920 part of the day. But if you missed the first part, well, you missed a little extra and all you need is

00:00:34.820 a cup or a mug or a glass, a tank or a chalice or a stein, a canteen jug or a flask or a vessel of any

00:00:39.980 kind. Fill it with your favorite liquid because dried goods don't go well in a mug. And join me

00:00:48.560 now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine of the day, the thing that makes everything better,

00:00:52.660 everything, everything better. It's called the simultaneous sip. Go.

00:00:58.920 Congratulations on your first live sip, I see in the comments. And once you've experienced it,

00:01:10.720 you can't go back. I know a lot of you, a lot of you are at home saying, oh, I hate this

00:01:17.080 simultaneous sip thing. Would he just stop doing this and get to the good stuff? Oh no, you don't

00:01:23.900 know what you're missing. Ask the people who do the simultaneous sip how they feel. Yeah, you don't

00:01:30.000 see it, do you? Well, in the news, all kinds of regular things happening. For example, the regular

00:01:39.040 flu, not the fancy coronavirus flu we're all getting spoiled by because it's kind of special. No, but the

00:01:47.300 regular old flu, you know, the plain old flu that we used to get every year and it was boring and it

00:01:53.360 never made news, but it allegedly killed 22,000 people between 2019 and 2020. Now, correct me if I'm

00:02:06.960 wrong. Isn't that a suspiciously lower number than you've heard before? Because the second part of the

00:02:15.460 story is that even though it was 22,000 people died of the regular flu last year, the current number

00:02:23.900 for at least since the pandemic started, the 2020 number, is closer to zero. Closer to zero. Now,

00:02:35.160 why is that? Well, obvious reasons. Obvious reasons, right? And Dr. Nicole Sapphire listed a few on

00:02:43.340 Fox News I was watching. One of them is that apparently we did a lot better job of getting

00:02:48.480 the regular flu shots out as well. So the number of just regular annual flu shots is way up. So

00:02:55.620 that's good. Could be part of the answer. Also, Dr. Sapphire mentioned that the flights from China

00:03:04.640 were, you know, greatly reduced because of coronavirus and that, I didn't know this, maybe you knew this,

00:03:10.900 but apparently our regular flu comes from that region as well. Did you know that? Did you know

00:03:18.440 that the regular annual flu comes from China? I didn't know that. But so part of the speculation

00:03:27.840 is that there's less travel and therefore it didn't travel over here. Could be. That's possible. And then

00:03:34.640 of course, you've got your masks and your social distancing. So if you put all those things together,

00:03:40.200 duh, you're going to have way less regular flu. So you all expected less flu, right? But I got

00:03:49.880 questions. I got questions. Question number one, why is it that I'm hearing that 22,000 people died

00:03:59.420 last year? I mean, before the coronavirus, basically 2019. I feel as if every day until this day,

00:04:08.140 I'd been hearing that number was closer to 50,000 a year. Can somebody fact check me on that? Because I know

00:04:15.120 I've said that in public a bunch of times, and I believe I've read it a bunch of times. So in the United

00:04:22.480 States per year, wasn't the number that we've been told since the beginning, hey, that could be 50,000 a

00:04:30.320 year. But on a bad year, it could be 80. Right? Yeah, I'm seeing the numbers right now. So you've all

00:04:38.680 seen the same numbers, right? 50 to 100, 50 to 80,000. Every time I've seen this reported, since the

00:04:46.680 beginning of the coronavirus, it was always 50 to 80,000 ish. But today, today, it's zero. Basically, it rounds to zero.

00:05:00.660 It's way less than 1%. So that's because of the better mitigation and the no travel, and the vaccinations are a

00:05:11.000 little bit better. Could be. That could explain it all. But why did the history change? Now, here's the

00:05:22.380 part I understand. I understand that if things are different this year, that this year would have a

00:05:29.900 different rate of regular flu. Totally on board with that idea. Why wouldn't it be different? If the things

00:05:36.680 which, you know, control how bad it is, are different, yeah, it'd be different this year. But why did the

00:05:43.040 history change? Because I don't think that's supposed to happen. Is it? Can you change the history?

00:05:54.500 I don't think so. What does it look like is happening here? So here's one hypothesis.

00:06:01.180 You could call this a conspiracy theory, if you like. I wouldn't even mind. If you're going to call

00:06:08.980 me a conspiracy theorist for the thing I say next, that's not too far off. Because I don't have any

00:06:15.480 proof of what I'm about to say. Just kick it around in your head and see what you think.

00:06:23.380 Prior to hearing that the number of regular flus this year was effectively zero, not number of flu,

00:06:30.640 but flu deaths. So if I'd been saying number of flus since the beginning, could you go back and

00:06:36.500 modify that in your mind? I've always been talking about deaths. So flu deaths, it looks like maybe

00:06:47.820 there's another explanation. So there was a real live doctor who knows real live doctor stuff

00:06:54.760 several months ago during the pandemic, who wanted to look into the question of how we count

00:07:01.220 the number of regular flu deaths there are. Do you know how we count them? How would you think?

00:07:08.260 How would you think we keep track of how many people die from the regular flu?

00:07:14.100 Would you think that maybe it's reported on death certificates or some kind of medical records,

00:07:19.420 and then those medical records are summed up and maybe there's some kind of survey or whatever,

00:07:24.260 however they do it. And then they basically have counted the number of deaths. Wouldn't you think

00:07:30.040 that's how they do it? Some kind of polling, survey, sample statistics, something like that,

00:07:36.400 right? Or actually counting them because they're reported. But that's not how they do it.

00:07:42.380 Apparently it's an estimate. An estimate based on, I think, something like general mortality and how

00:07:51.380 they think it differs from. So basically they're just taking two numbers and subtracting and they're

00:07:56.040 saying, ah, let's say the difference between these numbers is flu deaths. Now, would you be concerned

00:08:06.440 that the people in big pharma who have much control over our government, we know that,

00:08:12.380 are selling vaccinations every year for the regular flu. And interestingly, when they count the number

00:08:22.000 of flu deaths, it seems to be in the 50 to 100,000 range when they use their estimate. Now, if you've

00:08:29.240 got 50 to 100,000 people dying of anything and you could fix it with a vaccination, you'd pay quite a bit

00:08:36.100 for that, wouldn't you? I'd pay quite a bit. But what happened the first year that instead of being able

00:08:43.360 to estimate it, they couldn't? And you know why they can't estimate the number of regular flu deaths

00:08:51.220 this year? Because of the coronavirus. The coronavirus makes it impossible to know if the differences from

00:08:58.680 the baseline are partly regular flu or partly coronavirus. So the only way that they could

00:09:06.840 determine regular flu, I'm assuming, is to count them. Guess what happened when they counted them?

00:09:15.060 There weren't any. Now, it could be, as Dr. Sapphire said, better vaccinations, less travel from China,

00:09:26.020 better social distancing. Could be. But that stuff didn't do too much to stop the coronavirus.

00:09:33.640 Now, I get that the coronavirus is extra, extra, specially viral. But is it that much extra,

00:09:41.700 extra, especially viral? That it's sweeping across the country despite social distancing and masks?

00:09:49.380 But I don't want to be the first one to tell you this. I know this will come as a surprise to many

00:09:55.740 of you. But a lot of people don't wear masks when you're not looking. It's true. It's true. In public,

00:10:05.120 people are pretty darn good about wearing masks. But if several people gather at your house

00:10:10.940 and they're not from your house, once they get inside the house, not so much masking going on.

00:10:19.160 That's the secret. Don't tell anybody who's not watching this. So if you're thinking to yourself,

00:10:24.760 well, this massive social distancing and masking is probably making a difference, probably not.

00:10:31.960 probably not as much as you think. Because I don't think that the coronavirus is spreading just

00:10:39.900 because it's extra special viral, although apparently it is. I feel as if it's because

00:10:46.180 people aren't really socially distancing, only when you're watching, which is a very small percentage

00:10:52.800 of total human interactions. So given my hypothesis, based on observation, but not

00:11:00.720 a randomized control study, it does seem to me like that regular flu would have plenty of opportunity

00:11:08.440 to spread, despite all of the controls for the coronavirus. And so I will just put out there

00:11:15.960 this alternative hypothesis. There was never much of any flu deaths from regular flu. It was always

00:11:26.120 just, this is my conspiracy theory, not a fact, right? It was always bullshit. And it was always

00:11:33.700 bullshit to scare you into getting vaccinations, because vaccinations are very profitable. Maybe.

00:11:41.340 Or, or, or we're just really good at controlling the virus this year. Do you know what's going to happen

00:11:48.400 when the, when the coronavirus is under control? I'm just going to make a prediction that the regular

00:11:57.660 flu virus is going to rage back all the way to 50 to 80,000 deaths a year. The moment we can't

00:12:06.500 count them. That's right. The moment you can't count them, it's going to rage back to 50 to 80,000 deaths.

00:12:15.800 Just a coincidence. All right. So again, that's just conspiracy theory talks. I don't take it too

00:12:22.360 seriously. China's mad at the United States for kicking off of the New York Stock Exchange, three big

00:12:29.360 Chinese telecom companies. The reason for doing it was interesting. I didn't know this until now,

00:12:36.500 that Trump had issued back in November 12th, a, an executive order saying that we couldn't,

00:12:43.280 you couldn't list on the New York Stock Exchange companies that are basically controlled by the

00:12:49.580 Chinese military. Now, if he asked China, would they say, oh yes, our big telecom companies are

00:12:57.360 totally controlled by our military? No, they would not. They would deny that that is the case. But

00:13:03.000 the Chinese system is such that there's no such thing as an independent major corporation. That's

00:13:10.160 not really a thing. Of course, the major corporation, you know, has to answer to the Chinese Communist Party.

00:13:18.660 And of course, the military does too. So for all practical purposes, they are controlled by the

00:13:23.440 military. It's just the way China does it. And that may, to me, that executive order makes perfect

00:13:31.600 sense. We should not be promoting our enemy's military assets. Because military has turned into

00:13:40.420 cyber, right? So if these telecommunications companies are the, the weapons that the Chinese

00:13:47.160 military uses for their cyber attacks. And of course they are. Of course they are. For stealing IP,

00:13:54.380 for spying. Of course they are. That's exactly what they're for. There's not any debate on that.

00:14:00.200 There's nobody smart who thinks that the Chinese telecom companies are not being used for cyber war.

00:14:07.100 So of course they are. There's just a military asset in addition to being a civilian one. So

00:14:12.240 I think that was, was a really good executive order. And here's another one of those cases

00:14:18.560 where ask yourself, would Biden have done this? And how important is it? How important is it that we

00:14:26.560 could, somebody says, it's over, Scott, give it up. So I'm going to talk about assholes like you

00:14:33.380 in a bit. So I've got a separate section on assholes. So I'm glad you showed up. Oh, I'm not

00:14:42.740 going to block you. I'll leave you there so you can see what an asshole you are. I want you to see

00:14:46.140 that before I block you. We'll get to that. So it's pretty good. The executive order Chinese is

00:14:52.620 arguing. But here's what I'm starting to think. I feel as if the United States and China are like

00:15:00.220 incompatible organs in a body. Like you could get a transplant, but it would be rejected eventually.

00:15:06.280 You can only do it for a little while. That lasted a week, but it got rejected. Because think about all

00:15:10.880 the ways that we're literally allergic to China. Not literally, but in a little bit, a little bit

00:15:17.640 literally. So now that we know that our viruses, even our regular viruses are coming from China,

00:15:23.660 we should just close travel. If it's literally unsafe to have travel back and forth from China

00:15:32.820 because they're giving us diseases and killing us, let's just stop doing it. Why do we need flights

00:15:39.260 from China? Do we need them? Because we got Zoom. We got email. Right? Now, I understand that in-person

00:15:50.000 meetings are way more effective than remote meetings because human beings are human and

00:15:55.760 there's nothing that matches the in-person thing. But here's my question. Do we want Americans and

00:16:02.640 Chinese business people to get close? Close the way that human contact gets you close, but a phone call

00:16:11.580 does not. You see what I'm saying? The benefit of meeting in person is a really big benefit. And if

00:16:18.780 we're meeting in person with, let's say, our business partners in Germany or Great Britain,

00:16:25.000 is that a good idea? Yeah. Because I can't think of anything that would be healthier or better for

00:16:29.740 America than we have strong person-to-person ties with our allies who are also, you know, democracies-ish

00:16:38.780 and are also capitalist countries. That feels like one of the healthiest things you could ever do.

00:16:44.160 You have lots of personal connections with your allies. But why would you want personal connections

00:16:49.880 with a known enemy in the middle of a hot cyber war? That's the opposite of what you'd want, right?

00:16:58.600 Wouldn't you want any deals with China to be sort of hands-off? It's like, okay, just show me the

00:17:04.300 spreadsheet. All right, all right. The spreadsheet says this could be a good deal, so we'll do the deal.

00:17:09.440 But I'm not going to have tea with you. We're just going to talk on Zoom or email. That's it. Do you

00:17:18.860 think that the United States would be better off or worse off with or without those close personal

00:17:25.700 connections with a country that's a known enemy? I feel like we'd be better off without them. I can't

00:17:32.820 think of an actual reason why anybody needs to travel back and forth from China with the exception

00:17:40.080 of, you know, family members who maybe need to do it. So you probably need some exception for

00:17:46.480 family situations. But I don't think we should do any business travel and we shouldn't do any

00:17:51.600 recreational travel if what's happening is a bunch of flu is coming over here. Let's just not do it.

00:17:58.080 So we were incompatible with them from a financial sense and a health care sense.

00:18:06.180 Financially, we can't take one of their companies and put it into our system because that's what

00:18:11.300 happened with the New York Stock Exchange, right? We just took Chinese companies, telecom companies,

00:18:16.140 and said, let's treat them like any other company. But they're not any other company because their

00:18:21.660 system essentially makes them captive to the military for all practical purposes.

00:18:28.080 So we're incompatible in a business sense because their businesses are really military

00:18:33.940 and ours are, you know, less so. And we're incompatible health care wise because if they

00:18:40.160 travel here, we all die. And we're incompatible even with the mail because they mail fentanyl over

00:18:47.040 here. I mean, that's more of a goes to Mexico to the cartels and then comes here. But every contact

00:18:52.220 we have with China kills us, right? If we have physical contact with them, we get viruses and die.

00:19:01.540 If we let them mail things, they mail fentanyl to Mexico and it comes here and we die. If we let them

00:19:09.280 have contact with our financial system, they put telecom companies into, you know, into our networks and

00:19:17.040 use it for cyber warfare and we die. Do you see the pattern? Every contact with China kills Americans.

00:19:26.120 Let's say we have contact with them and move some of our companies there. So our companies and our

00:19:31.220 jobs move over to China. What happens to the Americans left in, let's say, the Rust Belt or

00:19:37.380 wherever else? They die. They do fentanyl and they die. Every contact with China, think about it.

00:19:45.080 I'm not, is this an exaggeration? This is not an exaggeration. It is not an exaggeration that every

00:19:53.300 meaningful contact with China kills Americans by the thousands, probably tens of thousands. Yeah.

00:20:02.320 Every meaningful contact with China kills Americans by tens of thousands. Has anybody noticed the

00:20:10.140 pattern? Am I the first one to tell you? There's a pattern. Literally every meaningful contact with

00:20:18.080 China kills tens of thousands of people. If there were some other country in which every meaningful

00:20:25.880 contact killed tens of thousands of Americans, do you think we'd still have contact with it?

00:20:32.320 Yeah. I'm seeing in the contact somebody saying, wow. Yeah. The first time you realize that it's a

00:20:40.200 pattern, every meaningful contact kills tens of thousands of Americans. All of them. Mail, email,

00:20:49.080 because even the email is going to be cyber attacks. Everything. Business, commerce, every meaningful

00:20:55.500 contact. Now, does every meaningful contact we have with, I'll just pick a country, Germany,

00:21:02.320 result in the death of Americans? None. None. I mean, I'm supposed to be some weird coincidences,

00:21:13.260 but we're not talking about anything meaningful. How about Great Britain? How many people have died in

00:21:19.200 the United States because we have strong ties with Great Britain? Probably none. I mean, I can't think of

00:21:26.580 Canada. None. Mexico is a little dicey. Mexico is killing a lot of Americans, but specifically the

00:21:37.060 cartels. It doesn't feel like, well, I guess the cartels are the government for all practical purposes

00:21:42.560 in Mexico. Yeah. So I would think Mexico would be thrown on the list as at least a country that

00:21:48.080 causes death in the United States. But notice that even with Mexico, it seems to be limited just to the

00:21:55.920 drug trade and the violence around that. Whereas it's not as if everything we do with Mexico kills

00:22:02.760 Americans. You know, we've got tourist trade and we've got business trade. You know, NAFTA doesn't

00:22:09.040 kill Americans exactly. Well, maybe NAFTA did, but the current deals are not so dangerous. All right,

00:22:17.180 enough on that. There's some big news out of Portland. There was a Democrat there named Mayor Ted

00:22:24.240 Wheeler, who has realized, and I know this will come as a shock, that human beings respond to incentives.

00:22:34.360 Now, I know that doesn't sound like big news, because if you're following this, you're probably

00:22:41.240 leaning right in the political spectrum, if I know my audience. And you're probably saying to yourself,

00:22:47.780 what do you mean he's discovered that incentives make a difference to people? Didn't everyone know

00:22:57.720 that? To which I say, no, that's actually the main difference between Republicans and Democrats.

00:23:04.520 The single main difference is that Republicans try to build systems that understand human motivation.

00:23:11.660 If you do the right thing, big reward. If you do things that are bad for society, jail. If you work

00:23:20.260 hard, money. If you don't work hard, no money. So that's the Republican system. It's entirely built on

00:23:28.900 human motivation as the guiding principle for the whole system. The Democrats build systems as if human

00:23:37.440 motivation isn't even a thing. And so, you know, the socialism in its, you know, more, let's say,

00:23:47.180 more extreme forms as opposed to just safety nets. But in its more extreme forms, it completely ignores

00:23:53.520 human motivation. The single most important thing to get right. Ignored. It's not like they even get it

00:24:00.340 wrong. They just ignore it. So it's the same with the teachers unions that create no competition for

00:24:09.760 schools. The teachers unions are a perfect example of the Democrat kind of philosophy. The human

00:24:17.320 motivation isn't part of anything. We don't have to worry what motivates people. We'll just build a

00:24:23.020 system and ignore that. And so they build a system with trying to close out competition from private,

00:24:29.420 DO schools and charter schools and stuff. And in doing so, they've completely ignored the most

00:24:35.460 important part of human motivation that if you don't have a reason to compete, you won't. Why would

00:24:41.700 you compete to make a better product when it's going to be purchased exactly the same amount,

00:24:48.580 whether it's good or not? You wouldn't. So their entire systems are built on a lack of understanding.

00:24:54.500 But Portland's Ted Wheeler has been dealing with this Antifa, mostly Antifa and also Black Lives

00:25:00.740 Matter at different times. But I think Black Lives Matter has decided to stand down since the election

00:25:07.060 ish. But it looks like Antifa is going strong, as you might imagine. And Portland's Ted Wheeler has

00:25:13.760 announced that his quote, and I'll use his words now, his good faith efforts with anarchists were met with

00:25:21.920 violence and scorn. Pretty surprising, isn't it? Because when you negotiate with anarchists,

00:25:31.480 you do expect a good outcome. Because human motivation is not part of your system.

00:25:39.080 Why wouldn't you be able to negotiate with an anarchist? Well, let me give you an example

00:25:45.360 of Ted Wheeler, my impression of him negotiating with an anarchist. Scene number one, I'll play Ted

00:25:54.560 Wheeler, as well as the anarchist. For the role of the anarchist, I will be wearing this sophisticated

00:26:03.440 disguise, so you can tell the difference. All right, this is Ted Wheeler. Again, I don't want to confuse

00:26:10.080 you. This will be my Ted Wheeler. This is an anarchist with a bad beard. Okay? Ted Wheeler

00:26:18.140 says, we've been having all these problems in the city, a lot of rioting, and I hear your concerns.

00:26:24.140 I hear your concerns, and we take them very seriously. And I'm wondering if we could reach

00:26:28.820 some accommodation now, having heard all of your concerns and taking them very seriously.

00:26:33.400 Could you maybe begin to negotiate, let's say, less rioting and destroying all of our stuff?

00:26:43.360 I don't see why.

00:26:47.040 Well, I don't think you're listening to me. I'm saying that we've heard your concerns,

00:26:52.600 and we're taking them seriously. We'll have some committees, some hearings. We'll even add some

00:26:58.520 people to some boards, some committees. We'll really take you seriously and see what we can do

00:27:04.920 about your concerns. You know we're anarchists, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I don't want to...

00:27:18.520 Hello?

00:27:19.000 Right in the middle of my best scene. God. I know you're anarchists, but I don't want to cast

00:27:31.340 dispersions. I don't want to make assumptions. I don't want to be discriminating against you just

00:27:37.760 because you're in a group. I would like to reach an accommodation, something that works for you,

00:27:43.600 and also works for us. I really don't think you understand anarchism. No, I feel like I do. I

00:27:53.380 read up on it. I looked in Wikipedia, and I know what it means, but I know that you're reasonable people

00:27:58.820 on the inside. Sure, externally, externally you're causing some trouble, and I know you're acting out,

00:28:06.860 but on the inside, I know that you're reasonable people, and we can reach an accommodation that would

00:28:12.160 be good for you, but also good for the rest of us. Nope. You don't understand anarchism.

00:28:23.660 And also, scene. But there's something that you don't understand. There's a story that I think I'm

00:28:32.200 the only one reporting it, and it's not directly related to this situation, but I think it's a good

00:28:39.100 human interest story. And Ted Wheeler, the mayor, a lot of people haven't heard this, but he noticed

00:28:47.800 that there was a family of skunks in his backyard. And of course, that's a problem, right? You can't

00:28:54.120 even use your backyard. You got skunks back there. They're going to spray everything. And so he did what

00:28:59.480 any reasonable Democrat would do. He started negotiating. So every day, he'd go out there to

00:29:04.700 try to negotiate with the skunks, and he'd be covered with skunk spray, and then he'd have to

00:29:10.820 rub himself in, I don't know, mayonnaise or whatever you do when you get sprayed by a skunk and take seven

00:29:16.300 baths. But he wasn't a quitter. He'd go out there the next day and negotiate with the skunks, spray it

00:29:23.280 again every single day for four months. After the fourth month, he mentioned what he was doing to a

00:29:32.580 neighbor, and the neighbor said, you know, Ted, the skunks, they don't speak English. And then he

00:29:39.820 realized he'd wasted four months trying to negotiate with the skunks, but they don't actually understand

00:29:45.460 English. So he decided he needed to work with them, obviously not, you know, use any violence or

00:29:54.900 anything like that, because that's not cool. So he decided if negotiating isn't going to work with the

00:30:00.960 skunks, what about petting? Because dogs like to be petted, cats like to be petted, and a skunk isn't,

00:30:11.780 is it that different from a dog or a cat? Not really, because people are people, right? And people are good

00:30:18.620 on the inside. And skunks are good on the inside. It's just on the outside, they have sort of a very

00:30:25.400 annoying, you know, demeanor, and you know, they'll spray you and ruin your house and stuff. But on the

00:30:32.880 inside, skunks are actually good people. And so the mayor knows this, because he's a Democrat, he's now

00:30:38.180 some like evil Republican. Can you imagine how a Republican would handle this? What a shit show that

00:30:45.120 would be. Some Republican would like, probably call, you know, a service that would capture them and

00:30:51.340 move them somewhere. I mean, skunks in cages, am I right? I mean, that's not going to fly with the

00:30:57.500 public. So Ted Wheeler, being a more woke, professional politician, he knew that if negotiating

00:31:06.640 doesn't work, you don't go to violence next. You don't go to violence. You try petting. Now,

00:31:15.260 he tried a month of that, and it didn't work out, because it turns out that the skunks were not

00:31:22.740 motivated quite the way he was hoping. He felt they were motivated toward making an arrangement and a

00:31:29.960 deal and working something out. But it turns out they took the petting, which he was right about that,

00:31:36.780 they liked the petting. But they also sprayed them, because they're feral skunks.

00:31:41.900 Um, and once he realized that negotiating with skunks didn't work, because they don't speak

00:31:48.700 English, and petting them doesn't work because they're feral, and they spray you, that really

00:31:57.000 left, if you think about it, there's only one solution left. Are you with me? If negotiating doesn't

00:32:05.240 work, talking doesn't work, petting doesn't work with the skunks, all you got left is,

00:32:11.880 hugging. Hugging. Now, he's working on that, I understand, so we don't know how that's going to

00:32:18.160 work out. And the skunks are a little bit hard to hug, so it's not like it's going to happen on day

00:32:24.240 one, right? You got to have a little patience. You're going to have to, like, corner them. You

00:32:29.280 probably have to build up some kind of immunity to the spray. Now, the first time you've ever been

00:32:36.700 sprayed by a skunk, I don't know if you've ever been sprayed by a skunk. You know, if you grew up

00:32:41.220 where I grew up, you probably have been, or at least your dog was. You know, fairly common experience

00:32:48.440 where I grew up. But the first time you get sprayed, it's pretty bad. But you know, you can get used to

00:32:54.360 anything. Second time you get sprayed, it's still bad, but it's not as bad. So Ted Wheeler, now having

00:33:01.020 been sprayed by skunks, probably hundreds of times, he can hug them and put up with the spraying a

00:33:08.580 little bit, but they're still hard to hug because you got to corner them. Sort of like this situation,

00:33:17.260 and then, you know, they claw and they bite. They don't like to. They'd rather spray. But if you're

00:33:22.480 trying to hug them, you're going to get clawed and bitten a little bit. So Mayor Ted Wheeler is still

00:33:27.840 working on the skunks in the backyard, still negotiating with the Antifa. But at least with

00:33:33.160 the Antifa, he's decided to, what was his words? He was going to use additional tools and push the

00:33:47.100 limits of the tools we have. So he's going to use his tools to handle the Antifa. What tools is he

00:33:56.280 speaking of? I assume the tools are other Democrats in this context, but just a guess. All right.

00:34:08.180 Early, I guess Friday, vandals went to Nancy Pelosi's home in San Francisco, and the unidentified

00:34:16.580 suspects, they painted graffiti on her garage door and left a pig's head on the sidewalk,

00:34:22.000 said the police department. Now, I wonder if anybody saw this coming. If you're a politician,

00:34:33.000 and you live in San Francisco, and you are on the side of policies that create a lack of law and order,

00:34:43.320 what did she think was going to happen to her house? Maybe not on day one, but how did she think this was

00:34:53.360 going to go? Because if you don't understand human motivation, this probably caught her by surprise.

00:35:01.540 I can imagine her walking out there and seeing that pig head on her sidewalk and her garage

00:35:09.980 graffitied and saying to herself, how in the world did this happen? Who in the world thought that a

00:35:19.880 Democrat politician in San Francisco would eventually be the subject of some disobedience? Who could have

00:35:30.160 seen this coming? Well, it was a big surprise to us all. As Twitter user, Twitter user, Tommy Hour,

00:35:39.640 said of Antifa and Portland, since I will no longer be able to blame Trump for the violence in my city,

00:35:48.060 I demand the violence stop since it's making me look bad. Now, I don't buy into necessarily that Ted

00:35:56.060 Wheeler is only now interested in stopping the violence because Trump is no longer in office. I don't

00:36:02.160 think it's like one to one, one cause the other or something. But it is hard to ignore the fact that

00:36:10.120 the riots suddenly and magically are going to be reduced despite zero problems being solved.

00:36:20.240 Please list all of the problems that were solved by BLM and Antifa writing for, I don't know,

00:36:29.180 nine months or whatever it is. Which problem, or longer, which problems have been solved? None. Is

00:36:37.500 there anything they asked for that they got? So they were violently protesting for months and months,

00:36:45.920 got exactly zero, and so they decided to stop. Okay, totally legitimate protests,

00:36:54.960 because that's how protests work. When you get absolutely nothing you're asking for that was so

00:37:01.620 important that you were willing to protest and destroy your own city, once you get none of it,

00:37:08.160 well, then you're happy. Why wouldn't you be happy getting none of what you want?

00:37:12.600 Because remember, they're all Democrats. If they knew that human motivation is actually part of the

00:37:20.080 variables of figuring out what's going to happen, if they knew that, then they probably noticed there's a

00:37:26.700 disconnect between all that rioting and getting nothing, and then stopping the rioting. You'd think they'd

00:37:34.560 notice the correlation. So obviously the rioting was not related to any complaints. Can we say

00:37:42.580 that for sure? Because the complaints, nothing stopped, nothing changed. So it wasn't because

00:37:49.740 the, oh, somebody says it's just winter. Yeah, I think you're right. Winter plus nothing else. If it's

00:37:56.080 summer and there's nothing else to do because of lockdowns, that's the worst situation. Yeah.

00:38:01.720 Well, of course, the big news is that Senator Ted Cruz is leading a dozen GOP senators to challenge

00:38:08.120 the, on January 6th, to challenge the certification of the electoral college votes. And of course,

00:38:17.800 not everybody thinks this is a good idea. Not everybody. But what they're asking for is very clever.

00:38:26.520 And I would expect nothing less from a Ted Cruz effort. The one thing Ted Cruz doesn't do is stupid

00:38:38.060 stuff. You could watch Ted Cruz for a long time. Some things will work. Some things won't work. Some

00:38:45.040 things will be better than other things. But he never does anything that doesn't make sense. He never

00:38:51.760 does anything that's just sort of stupid. Everything he does is smart. So is this smart?

00:38:59.760 Will this be the first time, at least that I can think of, that Ted Cruz would do something that

00:39:05.500 doesn't even make any sense? Well, Joel Pollack has an opinion that I think is worth noting here.

00:39:13.620 He says in a tweet, I don't think that the 11, at the time it was 11, I guess it's 12 now,

00:39:18.800 Senate Republicans are doing is unlawful or unconstitutional. I simply think it is unwise.

00:39:24.880 It has no reasonable chance of changing the election result. It is simply a protest. Sometimes

00:39:30.300 protests are worth it, even when they have no hope of success. That's part of a larger string. So if

00:39:35.600 you want to see Joel's full thoughts on it, I refer you to his tweet thread on that. Here's, I don't,

00:39:43.320 I don't, I don't think I disagree with that as much as I have some gaps in my understanding. So I'll just

00:39:50.480 say I have some gaps in my understanding and they are as follows. What are the possible outcomes of

00:39:57.720 this? Because I don't know. Suppose, suppose the challenging creates a debate, which is the first

00:40:06.540 time the public at large hears the actual detailed allegations. Would that be useful? Suppose the

00:40:14.280 outcome of the election is not changed at all, but a Ted Cruz led effort surfaces to the general public

00:40:22.440 just how, allegedly, allegedly just how bad the election was in terms of integrity. Would that be

00:40:32.480 useful even if it didn't change the outcome? I say yes, but I also don't know if that's what's going

00:40:39.160 to happen. Will the public see the actual detailed allegations for the first time? Because if you do

00:40:46.840 a, you know, some kind of an event in Georgia, how much coverage does it get? So the other day when I

00:40:54.360 was mentioning, oh, there's this video of this tech guy in Georgia and he's, you know, he presented to

00:41:01.640 show that he was already hacked into the system. So I talk about that in public and I get messages

00:41:06.780 from people who say, can you send me the link to the technical guy who said he was already hacking,

00:41:14.380 like at that moment, had hacked into the voting machines in Georgia. And of course, I ignored it

00:41:21.520 because I generally ignore it when people ask me for a link to something that they can Google.

00:41:26.000 And I thought to myself, what is more searchable than that? Go to Google, Georgia, technical expert,

00:41:35.100 voting fraud, look for whatever is the most current, you know, YouTube or video on it,

00:41:40.640 right there. And so I get a follow-up message. Hey, we and other smart people are looking for it,

00:41:49.180 like really smart people. I'm not talking about people who don't know how to Google.

00:41:52.700 I'm talking about really smart people, heard what you said and can't find that anywhere.

00:41:59.340 Could not Google and successfully that video of the expert who had hacked into the machines in real

00:42:08.620 time. Now, what's going on here? Did social media disappear it so you can't even search for it?

00:42:18.060 Do I really need to give you a freaking link? That's the only way you can find that story?

00:42:25.540 Are you freaking kidding me? Oh my God. I don't know that it's been taken down. I think maybe they

00:42:35.140 just disappeared it in the searches or something. I don't know. Now, somebody says

00:42:40.620 the DuckDuckGo will find it. I don't know. But here's my point. If having a hearing in which

00:42:50.740 allegations come out that are really credible sounding, I can't judge whether anything is true

00:42:57.300 from my vantage point, but they're very credible sounding, just like everything else that is alleged.

00:43:05.200 Things tend to be credible when you first hear them, even if they're not true. And I'm thinking

00:43:11.420 to myself, if the only thing that Ted Cruz accomplishes and nothing else is that he makes

00:43:18.700 the major news networks cover it, because now it's the Senate and it's the election and it's Trump,

00:43:24.640 now they have to cover it. What if the only thing that came out of it is that thing that disappeared,

00:43:31.320 which is the strongest evidence I've seen yet that the election was questionable, what if that's

00:43:38.260 all that happens? The public finally gets to see it. Would that be worth it? Yes. Yes. That would be

00:43:48.940 worth it. Now, if what happens is somebody debunks it, would that be worth it? Yes. Very much would that

00:43:59.180 would be worth it. If the strongest evidence that's ever been presented on alleged election fraud

00:44:06.020 could be shown to the whole public and debunked right in front of you? I mean, I haven't seen the

00:44:12.940 debunk even offered, so I don't know that one exists. But what if there was one? What if there were

00:44:18.420 one? That would be good. What could be better than a world where half of the people think the election

00:44:24.900 was stolen, roughly? Wouldn't you like them to think the election was not stolen if, in fact,

00:44:31.880 it was not stolen? Wouldn't that be a great outcome for the country? It would be a terrific outcome.

00:44:37.280 So either way it goes, whether it proves it was stolen or does a better job in proving it wasn't

00:44:43.300 stolen, a public debate via Ted Cruz and his efforts and the other senators, that's a public service.

00:44:51.040 And here's the other thing that Ted Cruz does that's so smart. The only thing he asks for is not to

00:44:58.160 throw out the election, but rather a 10-day audit. Now, here's the genius of Ted Cruz, right? This would

00:45:08.220 be so easy to do wrong, but he didn't. You know, there were a hundred ways to do this wrong, and he found

00:45:16.420 the only way to do it right. That's pretty good. That's good politics. Smart. And what I mean by that

00:45:22.240 is he set such a reasonable standard for what they're asking for, that how do you turn that down?

00:45:30.800 Because even the people who say it's over, it's over, the election was fair, don't they also want to

00:45:38.280 convince the rest of us? Don't they think it's useful? No matter how they think it's going to

00:45:45.140 come out, don't they think it's useful to convince the rest of us? So what Ted Cruz has asked for is

00:45:51.580 not, here's the genius, Ted Cruz did not ask you to change your mind, because that would be hard.

00:46:00.320 He didn't ask anybody to change their mind. All he did was ask for better information in a very short

00:46:09.000 and reasonable time frame so that we could feel more secure about the outcome. Boom. How is that

00:46:16.760 now perfect? Who argues against better information when that better information is critical to the

00:46:25.080 operation of the United States? It's not like that information is just for fun. That information,

00:46:32.520 whatever would come out of such a hearing, is so vital to the operation of the country,

00:46:38.140 it's near the top of our priorities. So how reasonable is it to ask for more information

00:46:44.000 when it's the top question in the whole country? It is amazingly reasonable, and he's going to force the

00:46:52.100 Democrats to vote against it. It's pretty good. All right. So he has them in a corner. If they vote

00:46:59.680 against something that reasonable, they are, wait for it, if they vote against something that reasonable,

00:47:09.060 and that was the genius of it making it so reasonable, it's completely reasonable. It's 100%

00:47:15.480 reasonable. There's not even like a little, a little hair off at this. Oh, a little bit unreasonable.

00:47:22.300 Nope. Nope. 100% solid reasonable, no matter how it turns out. Right? Cruz isn't even telling you,

00:47:30.960 I think it's going to turn out this way, or I think it's going to turn out that way. He's not even asking

00:47:35.400 for that. He just wants more confidence in the system. That's the way it's being set up. Brilliant.

00:47:41.020 So I don't, I would join with Joel in saying I doubt anything will change the outcome at this

00:47:48.640 point, because there's just too much in motion. But the country needs to know, and that is not

00:47:53.900 negotiable, in my opinion. The system is going to do what the system does. But understanding what

00:48:01.880 happened, I don't feel that's negotiable. We got to know what happened, no matter what we do about it.

00:48:07.940 It's the second question. Have you noticed, I said by tweet, they got, I think, probably 14,000

00:48:16.100 retweets, which, so people liked it. Have you noticed that the people who were insisting the

00:48:22.820 election was completely fair, have stopped arguing on the details? They're only going after the people

00:48:30.380 who were saying it. Have you noticed that? I talked about this before. But here's an example

00:48:39.160 of it. So Twitter user Emily Holcomb is reporting by Twitter. She tweeted, I just answered one of

00:48:47.320 these, there is no evidence tweets, with several photo and video documented examples from my state

00:48:54.320 of Georgia. A respondent told me I should be arrested. The pattern is so clear now. So here's

00:49:03.580 somebody who said there's no evidence of election fraud. So somebody on Twitter just sent them a bunch

00:49:09.240 of evidence from this, probably from the same set of data that I was talking about that you can't

00:49:15.460 search now. But I guess she found it. And, and the response to here's the evidence you say doesn't

00:49:22.100 exist, was you should be arrested. There's not even the slightest pretense that anybody wants to talk

00:49:29.420 about whether the election was fair or not. Doesn't it feel to you as if the Democrats kind of know?

00:49:36.000 Don't you think that deep down, of course, they're not going to say it in public. But don't you think

00:49:42.700 deep down, private conversation, whispers, nobody hears it? Don't you think the Democrats know this

00:49:49.440 was stolen? I feel as if they do. I feel as if they do. All right. Now, for those of you who are new to

00:49:57.960 these live streams, if you believe that I am saying that Democrats steal elections and Republicans don't,

00:50:03.780 no, I believe that wherever theft can happen, and there's a big upside, and you can get away with it,

00:50:11.980 it always happens. So of course, Republicans are doing it, if it's being done by Democrats.

00:50:18.260 So it's either not being done by anybody, because you just can't get away with it, which I think we

00:50:22.980 know at this point, that's just not the case, that you can get away with it. We don't know how much

00:50:28.480 was done. But you could definitely get away with it, if you did it the right way.

00:50:33.780 So that, I feel like that's a tell. So you've got now two tells that if you were having a

00:50:42.460 conversation with somebody accused of a crime, and you knew how to, you know, determine who's lying

00:50:48.020 and who's not, you would feel confirmed that even the Democrats believe the election was stolen. Why?

00:50:54.060 Because if they turn down a reasonable 10-day audit request, it's because they don't want the answer.

00:51:00.020 It's not because it's unreasonable. It's not because it would delay anything that was going

00:51:05.560 to happen anyway. It's not because of the price tag. Nobody's arguing it's too expensive,

00:51:11.160 you know, even though it's expensive. It's pretty much a confession of guilt.

00:51:16.300 That's sort of like a police stop you and they suspect there's something bad in your trunk.

00:51:23.260 What do they do if you refuse to open the trunk of your car to show them? Do they, do the police say,

00:51:30.500 well, he's not opening the trunk, and he's calling me an asshole. So I guess there's nothing in the trunk?

00:51:37.580 No. You would say, if this person is getting belligerent and refusing to open the trunk,

00:51:45.040 they're kind of confirming there's something in that trunk. That's the way you'd see it if it were

00:51:50.200 any other situation. And so here the Democrats have this perfectly reasonable open the trunk request.

00:51:57.720 Just put the key in. Just open the trunk. If there's nothing there, I'll go on my way.

00:52:02.700 Okay. They won't put the key in the trunk and they won't open it. What's that tell you? Well,

00:52:09.220 that tells you they don't want to show you what's in the trunk, obviously. And of course,

00:52:13.700 the personal attacks tell you that they don't want to engage on any of it. And the hiding it in the

00:52:18.520 social media, if that's what's happening, tells you the same thing. So every sign suggests that the

00:52:24.360 Democrats know the crime is there and it would be detected if you looked hard enough. That doesn't

00:52:30.660 mean it is there, right? I could be reading these signals wrong, but I would say if this were any

00:52:38.280 other situation and you saw these signals, it's like this giant, you know, glowing light that says,

00:52:46.500 guilty, guilty. I'm so guilty. No, don't open the trunk. Don't look in the trunk.

00:52:52.280 So here's something that just blows my mind when I see it happen in its various forms. So yesterday,

00:53:02.080 I tweeted a hypothetical question. And as you know, Twitter does not handle hypothetical questions.

00:53:09.240 Well, not the smartest people sometimes. So that didn't go well in terms of the comments. But here

00:53:15.040 was my hypothetical question. Luckily, all of you are smart enough to know that a hypothetical question

00:53:21.320 is for curiosity. It's like I don't think it's part of the real world. And I said, what would

00:53:26.040 happen hypothetically? And this is more of a constitutional question. I was just curious.

00:53:31.240 So let's say the election process goes forward and Biden is inaugurated. He takes office. And just

00:53:38.280 hypothetically, a month after that, evidence came out that even Democrats would look at and say,

00:53:45.040 oh, damn, yeah, the election was stolen. Now, I don't think it's possible in 2020 to produce any

00:53:53.040 kind of a fact with any kind of evidence like video, eyewitnesses, there's probably nothing you

00:53:59.980 can do in 2020, where the team that doesn't want it to be true will say, okay, you got me there.

00:54:06.020 You got me there. I was sure there wasn't anything there. But now I'm looking at your strong evidence,

00:54:10.860 and you convinced me. That doesn't exist anymore. We're not in that world. We're in a world where

00:54:18.860 you could show it to them in whatever level of proof, and it would make no difference. It would

00:54:27.060 be like they didn't even see it. That's the world you're in now. But hypothetically, so this is why it

00:54:32.620 has to be hypothetical, because it can't be done in the real world. But suppose you could come up with

00:54:38.220 proof that even convinced Democrats that the election was stolen. What would be the constitutional

00:54:45.520 process? Does Biden stay president? So I put that out there. And of course, I have tons of lawyers who

00:54:52.720 follow me on Twitter. I don't know what that says about me, but a lot of lawyers on there. One of them

00:54:58.980 happened to be the senior legal advisor to the Trump effort on this, Jenna Ellis. And she answered that

00:55:06.720 under the Constitution, the only way to remove a sitting president is via the impeachment process.

00:55:11.820 That sounds right. You know, I assume that she's got the right answer there. She's the right person

00:55:17.200 to have that answer. And I thought, can you, but can you impeach somebody just because they didn't win

00:55:24.300 the election, but they thought they did? Is that actually impeachable? Because I thought impeachment

00:55:30.020 required, you know, certain standards that I don't think that would meet. Because Biden wouldn't be

00:55:37.200 the one committing any kind of a foul. He would be just the one who was, in a way, he was a victim of

00:55:42.820 the same crime. You don't punish the victim, right? I mean, it's a weird case of a victim. If the election

00:55:48.600 was stolen, we're all victims, including Biden. He just happened to be the one who became president,

00:55:53.560 theoretically. So not much of a victim. But here's the part that blows me away, that I can speculate

00:56:01.880 on a question like this that is important to the news cycle, and that the answer I get is from literally

00:56:08.040 the senior legal advisor on this very question to the president, you know, the most exact, perfect person

00:56:16.480 to answer the question. Twitter is amazing. I mean, it makes the world so freaking small that you can watch

00:56:23.480 television, see things happening, like in the White House, and then I can tweet, and I get an answer

00:56:30.220 from one of the main players on this, you know, national stage. It's just mind-blowing every time

00:56:37.240 it happens. Twitter just makes the whole world so small, in a good way. It makes it small.

00:56:41.280 So here's my last point, and I'm going to call it, I'm going to go to the whiteboard here, and

00:56:51.820 I've got a theory here, I don't know, theory, or maybe it's just something I want to put a name on.

00:56:59.900 Don't take any of this too seriously, but I'm, this is what I deal with all day long, and I'm going to

00:57:06.120 call it, I'm going to give it a name, I'm going to call it Einstein's janitor, and it's Einstein's

00:57:12.120 janitor's view of the world, and it goes like this. Now here in my artificial example, I'm assuming that

00:57:20.840 Einstein is smarter than his janitor. Now, if you've seen goodwill hunting, you know that that's not a

00:57:27.300 safe assumption. Sometimes the janitor is smarter than the physicist. But, just for my example today,

00:57:34.120 let us accept that the janitor is a normal person, and Einstein is not. And the Einstein is smarter

00:57:41.240 than the janitor, just for our example. But the janitor can be smart, okay? We're not dissing the janitor.

00:57:49.140 Janitor work is important, and, well, I mean, if you didn't have janitors, you wouldn't need anything else.

00:57:56.440 Everything would be a mess. So, yes, they are a critical job, no dissing on janitors. But, let's say

00:58:05.380 you looked at a normal distribution of intelligence in the country. You got your people who are not so

00:58:11.480 smart, you got your average people, that's most of the world, and you got your Einsteins over here.

00:58:18.420 The problem is that from the perspective of the janitor, let's say he's not as smart as Einstein,

00:58:25.100 the janitor can recognize real dumb stuff because he's smarter. The janitor is an average person.

00:58:31.760 And he knows dumb when he sees it. It's obvious. But the problem is the janitor also thinks that

00:58:38.520 smart looks dumb because he doesn't understand it. And when the dumb person looks at a smart person,

00:58:45.420 let's say Einstein, they think they're dumb.

00:58:49.720 Let me give you an example of this without Einstein and a janitor. I'll bring it into your

00:58:56.120 real world. Now, it doesn't require a genius and a janitor. It's just any difference in what you know

00:59:02.100 about the world, right? So, it's not even IQ. It could be how well-informed you are. So, let's just

00:59:08.860 call that all intelligence. Let's say political intelligence because it's your IQ, but it's also

00:59:15.100 have you paid attention and listened to the right news sources, etc. Whenever there's that difference

00:59:22.080 in how much two people know, the person who knows the least can't tell if the person who knows the

00:59:30.840 most is smart or stupid. They look the same. Can't tell. All you know is that you've got this

00:59:38.380 opinion you think is pretty darn smart and all the average people agree with you. Look, I got 80

00:59:46.380 million average people who are on the same page as me. So, can 80 million average people be wrong?

00:59:54.180 And the answer is, yeah, pretty much every time.

00:59:59.080 These people over here, who the janitor might think is dumb, but are actually the smart ones,

01:00:04.380 yeah, they might know more than the average person. That's what makes them, wait for this,

01:00:11.140 this is a hard concept, that's what makes them above average, that they're above average. So,

01:00:18.260 this problem you'll see played out over and over on Twitter, people who don't know as much as you

01:00:24.080 calling you stupid. It's the most frustrating thing in Twitter. Now, this effect is accentuated

01:00:32.460 by the fake news. So, the people who consume nothing but fake news are pretty sure that they're over

01:00:41.920 here on the smart side of things. But they've eaten so much fake news, they don't know that no matter

01:00:48.840 what their natural IQ is, effectively they're morons. Right? And there's nothing wrong with the people.

01:00:56.060 The people who are good, well-meaning people with high IQs, but because they consume fake news

01:01:02.720 exclusively, they're effectively morons. And they can't tell when somebody's not. Because it looks

01:01:12.560 like they're even dumber than they are. Like, you're coming up with stuff I've never even heard of.

01:01:17.380 But, because you watch the wrong news, that's why you've never heard of it. There's a reason.

01:01:24.960 So, anyway, I'm going to call this the Einstein janitor effect, if you hear me refer to it.

01:01:32.240 Somebody says, we are smart and our news is not fake. Well, I believe that the fake news is

01:01:39.020 both left and right. And if you're not sampling both sides and independent people as well, you're

01:01:46.300 probably not even close to the truth. But the people who only consume the fake news on the left

01:01:53.720 are definitely the worse off, information-wise. If you consume both, which is typical of the

01:02:00.060 conservative world, at least you know what the argument is, right? At least you've heard the other

01:02:06.300 side. But if you're on the side who has never heard the other argument, it's going to look stupid

01:02:11.300 when you do. Because you won't know the background or the context. All right. That is my prepared

01:02:19.540 comments for today. And if you have some comments, I will be taking them over on YouTube in a moment.

01:02:28.480 So, Periscope, I will be seeing you tomorrow. And YouTube, I'll be with you for another few minutes

01:02:39.520 here. Anybody have any questions? Thank you. It's over already? I don't know what's over. You mean the

01:02:51.940 election? Probably. You know, if anybody doesn't remember, I would like to hearken back to the early

01:02:59.820 days of post-election, when as soon as the networks called it for Biden, I did as well. So as soon as

01:03:08.200 the network said Biden's president-elect, I congratulated him. I don't believe there's much chance that we had

01:03:15.600 a fair election. I don't know that that'll ever be demonstrated in a way that the public agrees.

01:03:21.740 But as I often say, the setup is such that there had to be fraud. It was too easy, and it was too

01:03:26.700 valuable. Of course it was. We don't know how much or if it changed the result. And so even though I

01:03:36.200 congratulated Biden, I believe that the system would protect him so safely that it wouldn't matter if any

01:03:45.080 fraud were detected or when it was detected. It just wouldn't matter.

01:03:52.780 Why won't I talk about Q? I've talked about Q in the past, and it just... What happens if you talk

01:03:59.640 about Q, all the Q supporters come out, and it becomes this frenzy of... It just turns into this

01:04:05.240 ugly thing. So I've said everything I need to say about it. I think that at this point, when Q was a

01:04:11.760 bunch of predictions before we knew if they were happening, you could be excused for thinking that

01:04:18.720 the predictions might be accurate. It wasn't crazy. You know, maybe there was a source, etc. But at this

01:04:25.720 point, you don't have to wonder if the predictions were accurate, because you could just look and see

01:04:31.240 what did they predict and how to come. And I will leave that to you. If you can find a source that says

01:04:37.920 that Q made good predictions, you should believe in Q. If you Google it and you find out a list of

01:04:45.160 things that predicted that didn't happen, I would recommend modifying your opinion.

01:04:51.960 What's going on with Pence? Well, I'm the biggest Mike Pence supporter in the world, even though I

01:04:57.660 don't think he should be president. I don't agree with him on some of his social views and LGBTQ

01:05:03.800 stuff. I'm on the other team for all of that. But Pence is a good person, as far as I can tell.

01:05:12.360 Or he's either a good person or he's the best faker in the world. He's pulled it off for years,

01:05:18.160 but I tend to think he's probably just a solid person. And while I can disagree with him on the

01:05:24.760 LGBTQ stuff in particular, I like his style just consistently. He just plays an honorable public

01:05:35.260 servant better than anybody has ever been an honorable public servant. You've got to respect that.

01:05:43.640 And by the way, time proved him right, right? With his, you know, the Pence rule, he wouldn't go to

01:05:48.860 lunch with a woman unless his wife came. It's some kind of rule like that. And when you first heard it,

01:05:54.040 you're like, oh, that's kind of backwards. It's 2020, Mike Pence. Maybe men and women could just

01:06:03.260 have lunch. And then you realize that the Me Too movement, basically he was right, that if you even

01:06:13.480 put yourself in a position where you would be tempted to do something or somebody might claim you did

01:06:19.240 something, it's just not good. So his risk management approach of just never being in that situation,

01:06:28.460 it's a lot smarter than you think it is. It's a lot smarter. And it wasn't easy. I would imagine he would

01:06:35.340 prefer to live his life without restrictions, just like everybody else. But he put that restriction on

01:06:40.680 himself. Time showed he was right, in my opinion. And by the way, I would not have lunch with just a

01:06:51.080 woman and myself who was not my wife. I wouldn't do it either. And I used to. It didn't mean anything

01:06:58.080 to me. Of course I would, if it was just lunch and it was literally just business. But now I wouldn't

01:07:03.080 even take a business meeting if I knew it was just business. Like no, no doubt about it. Just

01:07:08.940 business. Won't do it. I won't have a private meeting with a woman over lunch or dinner or anything

01:07:14.100 like that. I would have, but I won't now. Did your farmland lose all of its chestnuts? I don't know

01:07:27.680 about that. But is there some kind of chestnut virus from China is being indicated here in the

01:07:33.480 comments, but I don't know about that. Barnes Law Twitter got hacked. Somebody's saying, oh, that's bad.

01:07:40.660 I hope that didn't happen. Somebody says Pence's state was the worst state for child trafficking. Well,

01:07:48.420 I don't know that that was his fault. How do you know what Pence thinks? I don't. So anything I say

01:07:54.840 about Pence's inner character is based on external observation. And I think I said, didn't I say

01:08:05.180 directly that it's based just on observation? I can't know what he's thinking. How can you ignore

01:08:12.220 Bitcoin as it eats the world? What is there to say about Bitcoin? Here's the thing I don't get.

01:08:20.120 I do see a lot of people prognosticating about Bitcoin. But what is there to say? If people's

01:08:30.420 psychology remains that it has value, it'll go up in value, maybe forever. And if the psychology

01:08:38.760 changes or there's an alternative that comes out that's better, more secure, has some extra features,

01:08:44.040 then it will be the thing that replaces Bitcoin. But what else is there to say? Right? That basically

01:08:53.880 Bitcoin is not something that's been around 100 years and therefore the next 10 years are kind of

01:08:59.940 predictable based on the prior, you know, 90. It's not like that. What could happen with Bitcoin is

01:09:06.560 anything. Just anything. It could literally disappear tomorrow. It could also double tomorrow.

01:09:14.140 And anybody who says that they know which way it's going to go,

01:09:18.720 well, I mean, I could give you my opinion of what I think is most likely. But I think you should put

01:09:28.120 the smallest amount of value on that of anything I've ever said. There would be nothing I could say

01:09:33.680 in the whole world that should have less credibility or usefulness to you than to say what I think

01:09:41.260 Bitcoin is going to do. Okay? I just, it just seems like that couldn't have any value at all.

01:09:49.140 And likewise, what anyone else says about Bitcoin? Not too interested. Now, I will tell you this.

01:09:56.420 The smartest people I know hold Bitcoin and like it and think, you know, it's a good, at least for risk

01:10:06.800 management, it's good to hold it. And when I say the smartest people I know, I mean literally the

01:10:14.440 smartest people I know. If you, if you made a list of the smartest people I know and then say, all right,

01:10:20.140 let's take the top 10% of the smartest people you know. They're already really smart. But we'll take

01:10:26.060 the top 10% of the smartest of the smart. And then you would check their portfolio. Bitcoin.

01:10:33.720 Now, does that mean that Bitcoin is good because the smartest of the smart people own Bitcoin?

01:10:41.720 Bitcoin? No. No. Because even the smartest of the smart people can't know what's going to happen.

01:10:49.860 Do you think that there are people who can predict the future reliably? Not really. I mean, I do the

01:10:57.480 best I can. But, you know, I think if you get 60% of your predictions right, you're Nostradamus. You know,

01:11:04.760 nobody's getting 80% right, are they? You know, if you check, you know, a lot of people would say that

01:11:10.300 my track record on political predictions is better than most. But what do you suppose my actual

01:11:16.100 percentage is? 60%? Maybe? If you actually made a list. Now, there would be lots of subjectivity about

01:11:23.340 did I really get this one right? You know, so for example, the Kamala Harris thing, you know, did,

01:11:29.060 did I get it right that she would really be the president? Or technically that she's not,

01:11:33.240 so I got it wrong. So you could argue about whether I got it right or wrong. But if you were to do your

01:11:37.140 own scoring, and you just had a list of the things I predicted and a list of what actually

01:11:42.960 happened, what do you think would be my percentage? I don't know, because I haven't done it. I'm

01:11:48.180 guessing 60%. But here's the second part. I doubt many people have done better. I'll bet you that

01:11:56.640 the average is closer to 40%. Because I think most people are worse than a coin to us about predicting the

01:12:06.680 future. And if I'm a little bit better. You know, that would probably totally explain why I have an

01:12:15.280 audience. Just being a little, you know, a little bit better. And I don't even know if I am, because

01:12:20.500 it would be so hard to score it. It's subjective.

01:12:22.400 Let's see. Somebody says that for the audit, it would take more than 10 days to decide what office

01:12:34.500 to use. Well, I don't know that you need an office. I think just the states could just say,

01:12:39.360 show up on Tuesday and recount these things. They would find plenty of volunteers. I don't even know

01:12:46.000 if it costs anything. You probably just have to open up the building and say, all right,

01:12:49.380 your volunteers, go count these ballots or whatever they're doing. I don't know if it's just auditing

01:12:54.380 ballots or if it's auditing the software, which would be different. Am I going to get the vaccine?

01:13:03.720 My strategy for the vaccine is the one you should use as well, which is don't make a decision until

01:13:09.260 it's available to you personally. Because that last minute, when now you have to make a decision,

01:13:16.700 you might have more information. You might have experiences from multiple vaccinations.

01:13:23.980 For example, you might find out that the Moderna one has a certain set of side effects,

01:13:28.420 maybe not confirmed, possibly just observed but not confirmed. You might find out that the

01:13:37.300 Pfizer one or the J&J one has more or less of those symptoms. You might find out that one has a kind

01:13:44.700 of symptom that the other doesn't. So you're going to know more at the last minute. Always wait for

01:13:50.200 the last minute. Don't. There would be no reason to make a decision now. But if what I hear is good

01:13:57.180 enough, then yes. So I'm leaning toward it. Let me say it this way so that I'm less ambiguous.

01:14:05.100 I plan to get the vaccination, unless in the unlikely event, I think it's unlikely,

01:14:11.900 I learn something between now and the time it's available to me that would change my mind. That's all.

01:14:21.100 The other thing I wonder is what my vitamin D levels are. Because if I had a quick way,

01:14:29.120 maybe I do, I don't know, if I had a quick way to measure my own vitamin D levels,

01:14:36.240 that would be a big driver to how eager I was to get the vaccination. Because if I've got good

01:14:43.820 vitamin D levels, and of course I've been supplementing and doing all the right stuff,

01:14:47.620 but that doesn't mean I have enough. If I did, I'd be way less worried than if I just happen to be one

01:14:55.280 of those people who's not processing my vitamin D right or whatever. Somebody says, go to Quest

01:15:01.940 Diagnostics. You know, I might look into that. If somebody has a source that could do a quick

01:15:10.500 blood test on my vitamin D levels, because I don't think my health care provider does that kind of

01:15:15.720 thing. Oh, somebody says their wife gets a vitamin D test. That must be related to a specific

01:15:21.720 condition. And I'm hearing good things about green tea, so maybe I should drink that.

01:15:29.000 There's a $40 at-home test. All right, I'll look into that. I will, I'll tell you what, I will Google

01:15:34.080 that and look into a vitamin D home test, and I will take that home test. We'll see. All right,

01:15:42.380 that's all for now, and I'll talk to you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - January 03, 2021

Episode 1240 Scott Adams： My Impression of Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler Negotiating, China Bad, Election Audit, More

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