Episode 1259 Scott Adams： Belated Coffee
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Summary
Is it a bad idea to put other countries first? and is it a good idea to have them be good allies? Is it better to have other countries be allies, or is it always better to put ourselves first? In this episode of the podcast, I talk about why it s a bad thing to put others first, and why it's a good thing to have others be allies.
Transcript
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bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum well let's see if this works i'm deeply skeptical
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coming to you from the other side of the planet well might be on the same side of the planet as
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you but probably not so come on in here we've got stuff to talk about assuming this works
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who knows if i've got enough wi-fi here to get all the way across the world but i feel like i do
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so would you like to uh see a little bit of where i'm at as soon as we get a few more people i'll
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show you that so let's talk about joe biden um the bad news is he seems to be very much a america
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last kind of a president now is that always a bad idea because trump sold us on america first
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being a good idea so what is it a bad idea to put yourself first and what is it a good idea
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let me give you some examples some context when world war ii ended the united states was unusually
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generous i think you could say to to the defeated powers germany and japan and i don't know that we
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were necessarily putting america first then uh except in the long term now did it work
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in the long run to put america let's say a little bit disadvantaged if we're giving any money to other
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countries and the answer is it did work in fact germany and japan are two of our best allies and
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uh i would say it's one of the most successful things ever done in the history of the planet
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so there are cases um you know obvious cases where uh putting other countries first
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could work out great but did that work out with china because i feel like it's not that you should
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put others first or you should put yourself first i feel like every situation might be a little
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different so china being maybe a little more aggressive about its role in the world maybe you
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can't put them first because they're putting themselves first but let's say the vietnam war is
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over and eventually vietnam and the united states want to make friends i don't know that we've done
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anything that would be called putting vietnam ahead of ourselves but it certainly made sense to be
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friends and i think that'll work out in the long run so i think it depends on the country so let's
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take a look at some of those other not america first things that uh biden did see how they how they
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stack up compared to these historical examples so you got um i'll do this up in a minute
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actually you probably want me to do that now and i will
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so sorry i missed you this morning it was quite a nightmare in the hotel experience of trying to
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find the lights and whatnot i'll tell you about that later but for now let's enjoy the simultaneous
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sip because i know you're addicted i know you need it you could play this back in the morning if i don't
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make it for tomorrow's uh appointed time it's called the simultaneous sip and all you need is a
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cup of mug glass a tanker cellist or stein canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill with your
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favorite liquid i like coffee join me now for the unparalleled pleasure don't mean it in the day
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thing makes everything better except this vacation because i don't think this could get better actually
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it's called the simultaneous sip happens now go
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that's what you wanted was worth waiting for totally worth waiting for all right like i was
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saying so biden's done a few other america last things let's say the paris climate uh accord
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that feels like america last but does it make sense in other words is our involvement in it
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somehow going to uh let's say make the world better for everyone including america well that's the idea
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right now if the climate accords did anything like that probably be a pretty good idea but it feels as
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though it doesn't do anything like that if you actually look at the agreement it just seems good
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for china bad for america and that's the end of it that's it that's the beginning and the end of the
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story good good for them bad for us and it's written that way it's written intentionally that way
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because the idea is that china needed a little extra extra flexibility because it would take them much
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longer to become green is that a good idea or bad idea well if it's a good idea it tells you that
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somehow somehow that works out but it's hard for me to imagine this scenario where anything is
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different because of it except that we're disadvantaged it's hard for me to i'd like to hear somebody
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explain the story of how doing the climate accords leads in a logical connected way to a better world
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easily you could have made that argument with let's say the the marshall plan and germany and helping
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out japan after world war ii it's an easy it's an easy story you say well if we're good to them and we
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rebuild their country we'll be allies and that'll be good forever and it worked but if you can't do that
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with the paris climate accord you know a logical easy story that says oh yeah you do this and we're
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hoping that this happens and then this will happen sort of logically flowing but i don't really see it
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it doesn't mean it's not there maybe it just takes a better explanation than what i've heard so far
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um let's see the other the other things that uh that biden is doing that uh are not give me some
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other examples there are a few other things he's doing that don't look like they're america first
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uh ending the uh the pipeline so the first thing biden is doing is screwing canada
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he's screwing canada by canceling the pipeline after they put a whole bunch of money and work
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into it for years uh now i suppose you can make an argument uh that the environmentalists would that
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it's good for america but i just don't see it you know the the pipeline is one of those things where
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if everything went wrong it would be pretty bad but that's true of everything isn't it couldn't you
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say that at the hoover dam oh don't build that hoover dam because if that thing breaks that's gonna be bad
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it feels like any big project you could make some kind of an argument that if you did it wrong
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bad stuff would happen that feels generally true all right um then what was the other stuff that
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biden did today oh he i think he signed something about uh transgender bathrooms and sports
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got that going uh basically just reversing everything everything that trump did i don't
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know how much of any of this is going to affect me i don't know if you've had that thought there's a
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whole bunch of stuff that i kind of prefer to be different you know i i kind of i've mapped pretty
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closely but not exactly to a lot of the trump policies but they don't actually affect me that much
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you know i'm not playing any sports in high school i don't think the the the climate will be any
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different with or without the accord i don't personally gain anything from the pipeline that
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would be obvious i mean maybe it would affect uh energy costs at some point so it's really hard to
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it's hard to get excited about any of this stuff it all seems small but let me give biden one
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objective compliment if i understand the topic right and it goes like this you you heard me
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complaining about the trump administration not approving these rapid tests that are less sensitive
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but they can they can find the um the strong cases and given that we know that most of the spreading
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happens from people have a high viral load in their nose and mouth that that study just came out today
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so it's seems to be confirmed uh that the super spreaders literally have more of the virus
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in the in the mask of their face uh mask being a different word than an actual mask mask meaning
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your your sort of nose mouth area and uh so if it's true that the real problem is the people who have a ton
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of virus in them then it's also true that the less sensitive tests would get all of the super spreaders
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so nobody would argue that the less sensitive tests would miss the super spreaders they would only
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argue that it would miss the marginal cases but maybe you only need to get the super spreaders because
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they're the ones doing the damage so biden has signed some kind of executive order that uh promotes
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that uh that approach now i've been complaining that this might be the most important thing
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um maybe even more than the vaccinations in terms of how important they are but but at least
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you know equivalent to vaccinations if not more now again this assumes that the tests work and they can
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be they can be made in quantity and all these other things but biden just signed an order that
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i've been complaining that trump has ignored he's ignored the topic or he did he didn't say yes he
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didn't say no he just acted like it didn't exist i don't know why so if biden has done this one thing
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and it's right that looks like it might be you know too early to tell but it looks like it might be
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right gonna give him full credit now that doesn't mean that everything else he does is right but
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you know i'm not gonna i'm not going to uh you know disavow biden for doing something i've been
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asking for for six months so that part's good the uh there's also a question that jack wasabic was
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asking i saw on twitter he said uh uh is joe biden still putting kids in cages now of course the topic
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is not funny uh yes it's deadly serious but the but watching how biden deals with the fact
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that the only reason anybody was ever in one of those containers which you would call the cage
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the only reason anybody was in it is that nobody had a better idea right if anybody had a better idea
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i think we would have used it and the argument which you probably never heard uh biden won a
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majority of votes you are dumb so commenter says well let me let me i gotta address that so commenter
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i've said there are two categories of unambiguously stupid people when it comes to the election and
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any any claims of impropriety the two stupid types of people are people who are 100 sure it was
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fraudulent and enough fraudulent that it changed the election and the people who are 100 sure it
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wasn't those positions are stupid they're just stupid and honestly there's no way i can soften that
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because you don't know you don't know the only thing you know is that people looked in some small
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places and didn't find anything that would change the election result that's it that's all you know
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it's a fairly non-transparent system and even if it were transparent did you look at it how much time
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did you do counting ballots and recounting and auditing and looking at the software what did you do nothing
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so even if other people have done the things that need to be done which they can't because the system
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doesn't allow that level of transparency you can do recounts and audits and that's great but it doesn't
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get all the things that could be done if somebody wanted to you know fix an election so the only thing
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you can know for sure is that you either have a suspicion that looks suspicious and so therefore i think
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maybe there's a chance of something wrong but that's just a guess because there are reasons that
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anomalies happen probably every election some anomalies are out there there might have been more this time
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because it was hard to predict and it was a special election and trump was in it and you know and everything
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was different about this election so if you're sure in either direction you're just stupid and there's
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no way to soften that it's a probability thing certainty is just wrong answer unless you're looking
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into it yourself and you're not all right so uh what was i saying about biden uh the other thing biden
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did somebody will have to remind me somebody says if you don't believe the election was rigged you're not
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paying attention well you can believe anything you want right belief not really the right approach
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because how would you like the jury to do that if you were on trial uh jury we've got some i don't know
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there are indications i feel like in my gut sort of a hunch i believe you're guilty not really good
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standard and i don't think it would be a good standard for you know major world decisions either
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i just believe i feel like i got this gut feeling got this gut feeling but having mocked it
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let me agree with you that i have that gut feeling if he asked me to make a decision with my body
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and by every bias that i've ever developed in my life if that was the way i made decisions i would
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say i'll just go with my gut instinct doesn't feel right so everybody here who says scott just look at
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it it doesn't feel right i i feel the same thing you do it doesn't feel like it was possible
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but in the real world things happen every single day that didn't look possible so if your standard is
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how you feel that's not really how you make decisions so um i would say be open to the possibility
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totally reasonable being sure not reasonable not even a little bit reasonable now i might be going
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a little bit harder on you than i normally would because i realize you know i watch my my twitter
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followers when i do stuff like this and i go so it's all bad for me if i you know if i go at you
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directly because you're you know you're primarily my audience but having watched the damage that
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happened to the people who bought into the queue stuff i feel today that i let you down you meaning
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the public not you specifically i feel like i let you down because months ago i was or years ago i guess
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a few years i was pushing pretty hard against the queue stuff and i sort of made it a thing you know i
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was going to use my time and my whatever credibility i had to to see if i could stop that thing for the
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good of all now at the time i really didn't know how big it would get i certainly didn't know it would
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you know incite a uh some kind of trouble at the uh or an assault on the capital you know i didn't know
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that i think that was um not obvious you know at any point two years ago but um so yeah i'm seeing
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the comments scott take a break and collect yourself you're losing it see this is what i'm
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going to do more of not less so so those are the comments i'm looking to see i want the people who
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think i've just completely lost it because if you've watched me for four years or whatever
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and you've agreed with me up to this point uh or at least you've agreed with some you know majority
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of things i've said up to this point i'll ask you this one thing just consider just consider
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that i might be right now i might be wrong as well you can consider that too but don't rule it out i
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mean if if you've been watching my live uh streams um and you were to compare what you predicted
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to me if your predictions are better then don't pay attention to me but probably for most of you
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that wasn't the case so put it all in context uh you sound merely like a lawyer somebody says
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consider will there be uh will i be sipping sanka just looking at some of your uh comments all right so
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joe biden i would say that uh so far he looks to be a disaster on immigration i mean like this could
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be really really bad i don't think it will be uh so it's a statistical thing again but what the heck
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is he going to do right oh i was talking about the the kids in cages thing for those who don't
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understand the topic and that would be most people i guess and probably in that category as well
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but one thing i do understand is that the cages were primarily a short-term uh way to keep kids
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away from predators because the the predators were taking them across the border and god knows what
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kind of things were going to happen to the kids and if you the only way to separate them given the
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the tons of people who came in compared to the resources that they they had was to do something
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that nobody wanted to do which is physically separate the kids put them in these things that
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people are calling cages i don't think you could be happy about it you can't be happy about anything
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like that that happens to a kid but you can certainly say i get why it happened so the point is how is biden
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going to have a better result because he has the same problem and he has the same two solutions
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nobody came up with a middle ground including you know biden and anybody who criticized them
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so one solution is you let those kids go with the predators and that's basically you're killing the
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kid you know at least in terms of the quality of the rest of their life um and the other thing is you
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put them in cages and that's unacceptable you know on a human level so if you only have two choices
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and they're both terrible for kids what's biden going to do now if it turns out that biden figures
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out you know his administration figures out a way to deal with this in an efficient way that's better
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than what the trump administration did i'll give him credit i'd like to see that and if he could do
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that that'd be great you know as long as we have good border security and all that now my take on
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border security is that if you argue how many people should come in you're arguing it wrong
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uh the way to argue border security is this you say we need to have complete border security
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but that's one decision so one decision is to control your borders yes or no the answer's got to
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be yes right because nobody who has a country that everybody wants to move to can get away with having
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no borders just there's just no way that can work in long run uh so anyway biden's gonna have to
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close the border but my point was he's gonna have to control the border in some fashion we'll see what
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he does well my point is that you make the decision about do you control your border or not once you say
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yes that's one decision and then the second decision which is separate is how do you control it oops who
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do you let in and under what circumstances so i think those decisions should be separate i think
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there's a hundred percent solid argument for having a border that we can open and close as the situation
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requires it's just having a tool so arguing against having a toolbox is just stupid arguing about how
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to use those tools makes perfect sense so i would love to see an immigration system that removes human
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judgment as much as possible from the decision of who gets in and here's the way you could do it
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imagine that economists it probably have to be you know bipartisan economists come up with some
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kind of a formula and it's just the best they can do right these these types of algorithms and
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formulas are going to be approximations at best but let's say the economist come up with some kind of
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formula that says this under our current condition so let's say unemployment rate and whatever kinds of
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jobs we need to be filled uh under a certain set of conditions you just turn the knob and let more people
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in because it's good for us it's good for them it's good for us economy's humming along you need a few more
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people turn the knob a little bit let them in then whatever happens maybe you have some terrorism issues
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and pandemic issues uh economic issues and you just say based on you know these these criteria that
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everybody can see we'll have to dial it back a little if you did that who whose fault would it be
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right you could remove the humans from it just say look these are the conditions in which you want
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more people of a certain type these are the conditions where you don't and we'll just adjust
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up and down based on those conditions nobody even has to make a decision we just look at the data
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unemployment is seven percent turn it down unemployment drops to you know i don't know three percent turn it
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up that's it get the people out of the decision there's no situation in which we don't want immigration
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uh we just want to be able to control it um yeah so biden's promised a hundred know what a million
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million vaccinations a day which is basically what we're already doing so that's a good promise uh if
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i'm going to be um i'm going to try as hard as possible i don't think i'll be able to pull this off
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we're going to try as hard as possible to be objective about biden now i criticize trump on the
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rapid testing and health care and the capital assault and you know i've had a bunch of things
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that i criticize trump for i want to i want to do the same
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so some of your comments are cruel they're cruel
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um cnn removed counter what's that mean uh scott what about asylum that's where the problem lies yeah
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why would we need asylum if we had a good immigration system so so the problem always
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comes back to immigration control you wouldn't need any uh asylum cities if you had a good
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immigration system there would be nobody here who needed asylum so you want to fix the base problem is
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what you want to do uh somebody says we'll see civil war we're not we're nowhere near that the the most
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likely thing that will happen let's say just in general well let me give you some big big context
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it is generally true that every big world power through history has reached some point where
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they declined right roman empire boom um you know you can go through history mayan empire boom so
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there's probably no situation in the long long long run where any any country just dominates forever
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or is at the top of the pile or even exists in the long run long run but the end of a uh
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a civilization happens once all right you only you only get finished once but there's just hundreds or
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thousands of things that happen between the start and that one time you're done that look like bad
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things are going to happen then they don't and so if you're going to follow the odds what are the odds
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that you just happen to be alive and it's this year that we had you know the destruction of the
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united states in the civil war nothing's impossible but what are the odds like solo
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i don't talk to anybody who wants a revolution you know i hear lots of people complaining about
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freedom of speech and the private platform companies restricting it and in their private
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way not the public way you know everybody's got a complaint right some people's still mad about the
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election and everything else but i don't see anybody who wants a civil war just doesn't seem possible
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the most likely thing that will happen is that success will kill whoever is winning
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that's the most likely thing that happens so the beauty of our two let's say our two system
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our two-party system is that you have a way for somebody to lose every four years and that loser
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goes back and gets stronger and then comes back and fights again and sometimes win so the most
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likely outcome of a successful republican presidency would be a democrat is next the most likely outcome
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of a successful or even an unsuccessful uh four to eight years of democrat presidents is a republican
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the most likely thing that will happen after biden is a republican and that's even with uh any kind of
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you know clever mischief that the democrats do to add a state legalize some you know undocumented people
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who become voters put them in the census you know they can do lots of stuff but our country really really
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likes two parties fighting it out and not one of them winning every time and i speculate no way to know
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this for sure but i speculate that one of the the worst problems that trump had in terms of re-election
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was his success and specifically his success in uh in the supreme court nominations i feel that
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trump was so successful sort of locking down a republican conservative
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power base in the supreme court that it then because we don't like anybody to move too much power in one direction
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it just we just like that middle americans do so the most likely outcome is a biden
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harris overreach could last four years could last eight years but the the most logical outcome of that
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would be people saying all right we have enough of this let's try something else that's what i think
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now it's not it's not impossible that things would slippery slope all the way to the end of the
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the republic could happen but uh not very likely yeah i'd put that in the one percent range maybe
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something like that uh please explain what's the middle in 2021 well the middle is a lot of stuff
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the middle is being able to control immigration no matter what you decide to do with how many people
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get in that's that's the middle ground if you said to somebody we'll let in as many people as make
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sense but we want the option of closing the border if we need to would people really argue against that
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you're just saying we want the tool but we'd like to we'd love to let in as many people from central and
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you know south america and mexico to to do the jobs that need to be filled it's fairly middle ground
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infrastructure fairly middle um you know i think energy policy at least the public is closer to the
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middle there was uh what was it that uh biden did recently that's oh i think it's the the keystone
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pipeline has a majority of public approval and he decided to go against the majority on that so
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um all right let me show you where i'm at you want to see my uh situation here so i'm in bora bora and
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uh that is in french polynesia i'll show you just the back of the bungalow here
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yeah then so it's raining right now so i'm under a covered area and this is just about the most
00:30:27.960
beautiful place you'll ever see in your life and there are a bunch of these bungalows you see this
00:30:35.000
one behind me so the one i'm in is sort of similar to the one you see in the background there it's kind
00:30:42.440
of like that and so this morning uh i was i was tweeting this morning i'll give you an update on it
00:30:51.960
so every time i go to a hotel i have this problem which i call a sort of engineer
00:30:59.080
sort of engineering blindness that i have which is if i have a user interface or some kind of device
00:31:06.280
that i have to turn on and they don't build it right i can't figure out where the on button is
00:31:11.960
because they don't put it where i can find it it's like and my blindness is that if i know the button
00:31:17.880
should be in a place and it's not there i i'm literally blind to where else it is because it
00:31:23.560
shouldn't be there makes no sense but it's just you know a bias i bring to everything so this place
00:31:30.120
has all kinds of weird uh uh lighting uh i'll take you inside let's go inside you have to actually see
00:31:40.120
so you know in other countries to get all these weird situations a light switch so i'll just give
00:31:48.520
you a sample all right you see this panel what's all this business what what's this guy what is all
00:31:57.560
this what are these guys so you know none of this labeled so i'm like trying to trying to figure it all
00:32:03.240
out now and then you've got um let's see over here here's my favorite part see this this is if you
00:32:13.560
if you read it carefully you have to go way like really close i don't think you can see it but i think
00:32:20.200
it says uh main switch it's the main switch so now if you're designing this room and you put something
00:32:30.760
near the front door near the entry door and it was called the main switch what would you think that
00:32:37.080
did would you think it controlled all the lights because that's what i thought i thought oh my lights
00:32:43.480
are not coming on i'll just turn on the main switch but i turned on the main switch and it only turned on
00:32:50.200
my bathroom light and the light directly above christina's head in the bed where she was trying to
00:32:57.000
sleep and i thought that is not what i'd call a main light because keep in mind the other lights
00:33:03.320
didn't come on i couldn't even with the switches they didn't come on uh hours later six hours of of
00:33:10.600
sitting in the dark and texting the uh the front desk to tell me can you please tell me how to turn on
00:33:16.760
the lights and they say we'll send somebody right over and i said no no don't send anybody over
00:33:23.320
simply tell me where i could find the magic button because i know there's one in here there's a way to
00:33:31.080
turn on the lights in here i'll find that button just tell me where it is and they said well you know
00:33:37.080
get that master switch i'm like been there been there master switch not the answer and then they said
00:33:44.600
well what about the master switch in the bedroom and i said you have two master switches
00:33:51.800
is that a master switch for the bedroom separate from the master switch from the other nope they're
00:33:59.080
all master switches so apparently this was the whole place was uh wired by an electrician who just hated
00:34:05.720
people that's that's my best guess just an electrician who hated people
00:34:28.200
see if i can clear that up for you does that help you see it or no nope so you probably can't see much
00:34:35.160
out that window but that's situation here so we uh we had to travel through tahiti so we stayed at a
00:34:43.320
place in tahiti for uh one night and doing anything in another country is just uh so hard to figure out
00:34:54.360
so christina uh wanted to do an errand before we flew over to borogora and uh we're told that tahiti is
00:35:02.280
so safe that it's perfectly safe for a woman to go you know off in a taxi do some errands and come back
00:35:09.240
to the hotel but there are so few taxis in tahiti i don't know why they don't have uber uber and there
00:35:17.080
are only a few taxis and they're so few that they go by their first name so if you want a taxi you ask for
00:35:24.520
diane or kathy those are the brands and when we got picked up at the airport the there was a chinese
00:35:33.560
woman who was the uh driver and she goes i'm diane diane and she kept telling me i'm diane if you need
00:35:41.080
a taxi call diane and i thought that's weird why do i really need to know her first name then i found
00:35:46.680
out the whole system you know when you see the business cards of all the taxis you can call it's
00:35:51.480
just the first names of several people who and it's not the real name she could tell you know her
00:35:56.280
name was not diane when she was born in china uh so so christina we managed to get a cab she takes one
00:36:06.600
to do her errand and then she can't get a taxi back she's got internet connection problems and it took us
00:36:13.560
it took hours to retrieve her and find a find a taxi and get it to her and all that but in the meantime
00:36:19.480
she comes back she finally gets back and she says uh you know gosh there are more people uh men in
00:36:26.120
cars like doing wolf whistles and you know catcalls and stuff i've never seen it this bad and so then
00:36:34.280
i'm i'm feeling bad because i feel like i should have gone with her because it didn't sound as safe
00:36:38.360
as i thought and i said well how bad was it she goes well i'm just walking down the street and you know
00:36:44.840
people men are like yelling at me from the cars and stuff and i go but how much are you talking about
00:36:54.360
two or three she goes no no way way way more than that i go are you telling me that in just the
00:37:02.680
hour or so that you were walking down the street that more than 10 people yelled at you from a car some
00:37:11.240
kind of sexual harassing thing she goes no no way more than 10. and i said give me a rough estimate
00:37:21.800
while you were walking down the street for one hour in a public place totally safe like a main highway
00:37:27.400
right not any kind of seedy place or anything how many how many people would you just roughly estimate
00:37:34.360
she said 50 to 100. her estimate was at least 50 separate cars often with multiple men so in one
00:37:47.960
hour she was she was cackled by 50 to 100 people i have no idea if that's some kind of weird cultural
00:37:58.200
thing or if it was just the christian effect because you know i'm not sure that's even so different if
00:38:03.720
she's walking around in miami or something but that was just crazy um how is that possible
00:38:15.320
i don't know she is the most beautiful woman in the world so uh there's that
00:38:21.320
in the in the comments uh i'm seeing people saying you're bragging you're bragging of course i am
00:38:30.760
um i told christina i was going to tell this story and then people would say
00:38:34.920
you're you're cleverly bragging and uh let me just say that your your insight is incredible
00:38:42.600
all right so i don't know if i'll be able to do coffee with scott adams tomorrow morning at the
00:38:52.520
appointed time i really i really thought i'd be there this morning but it did take me several
00:38:58.280
hours to figure out how to turn on the lights here not that i'm proud of it yeah all right um
00:39:15.800
and somebody says you seem stressed are you kidding i've never been so relaxed in my life
00:39:22.360
that just the first day here is the most relaxing thing i've ever felt there's something about the
00:39:27.960
temperature or the water i don't know what it is but you don't feel the same here that's for sure
00:39:38.120
uh so i'll be here until the 20 i think i'm returning on the 29th it's a i think it'll be
00:39:45.800
uh eight days actually here for a lot of travel
00:39:56.760
you like the color of the wood have you been swimming now we're gonna i got my trunks on now going
00:40:02.600
swimming in a moment yeah i'll be sunscreening like crazy all right got my i got nothing else to
00:40:09.480
say um by the way i'm coming to you on my phone using stream yard software stream yard lets me use
00:40:18.600
one device to send to both periscope and youtube and others um and it looks like it's working really
00:40:24.440
well so i'm actually pretty impressed with this i think i might end up using this going forward
00:40:32.600
oh you're you're listening to my book how to field almost everything good
00:40:40.040
sound is good i think what my problem with with the buzzing sound
00:40:44.520
is i use my laptop as a stand for my other device so i just put my other device on the laptop and i
00:40:51.800
think it's too many devices close to each other
00:40:59.320
um yes thank you for missing me cat but i will be
00:41:06.120
uh you only get you only get one vacation like this in your life
00:41:20.200
all right i got nothing else to say so i'm gonna sign off now if i can figure out how