00:46:27.340That's not really something that you can estimate, you know, down to some kind of precision.
00:46:32.560So if you have nearly a million people who will be lifted out of poverty, and you have maybe, and it's a big maybe, another 1.4 million who might lose their job, what would happen to the 1.4 million who lose their job?
00:47:09.140And if it's not forever, shouldn't that be in the story?
00:47:13.400Because if it costs you 1.4 million jobs for only one month, and then those people go get different jobs at higher minimum wage, is that really so bad?
00:47:28.400If you believe that economists can model this accurately enough to know which of these two things is better, the people lifted out of poverty versus the loss of jobs and some of those companies probably closing, which is the better thing?
00:48:13.240But these estimates are useful for giving you sort of an idea of what the range of possibilities is.
00:48:21.620And what they've told us is that the range of possibilities is in this million-people-affected kind of level, and of 370 million people in the country.
00:48:31.240If I put it to you in that context, and I said $15 minimum wage, something like a million out of 370 million will be affected, but only temporarily, and then later they'll just get higher pay because they'll eventually get a job.
00:48:50.740Now, of course, how this works depends entirely on the employment situation.
00:48:58.420So as long as it's still easy enough to get a job, everything's fine.
00:49:04.780If it's hard to get a job and you lose your job that was less than $15 an hour, well, you're in big trouble because you can't get another job.
00:49:14.160But if there are plenty of other jobs and you lose your job that's less than minimum wage, you came out ahead because you lost your $10 an hour job,
00:49:24.340and a month later you got a $50 an hour an hour job, you came out ahead.
00:49:31.000The company didn't, you know, whoever was paying you was making less money.
00:49:35.760But the point is, all of the ins and outs of this, and then you have to factor in the people who have more money, are spending more,
00:49:42.140that stimulates the economy in ways that we just can't model.
00:49:45.500So it's way too complicated because of the iterative nature of what happens with these people who get the higher wage,
00:49:52.680then they buy some stuff, and then those people buy some stuff.
00:49:55.600And it's like this whole iterative thing that you can't possibly model.