Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1311 Scott Adams： Biden's Boring Speech, Israel Solves Water Shortages, George Floyd Defense Strategy, and More

00:00:00.000 well it's the best part of the day again isn't it great that you get one of these every day

00:00:08.480 yeah you wake up and next thing you know you're having a simultaneous sip and you're thinking

00:00:14.640 wow this is great and it is every single time and to make it even greater all you need is a

00:00:20.880 copper marker glass a tank of chalice canteen jug of flask vessel of any kind fill it with

00:00:26.840 your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of

00:00:32.960 the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and watch how good

00:00:39.400 this is you ready go yeah i don't think i oversold it that was pretty spectacular well should we start

00:00:51.940 with the good news that nobody seems to be reporting when i say nobody i mean nobody except

00:00:58.700 jake novak who put together three facts that i was not aware of uh and when you see them together

00:01:07.460 it's quite a story and the facts are these number one an israeli company has built these devices that

00:01:16.940 can extract drinking water from the air so it will take the humidity the moisture in the air

00:01:22.960 and it very effectively turns it into water up to 800 liters of fresh water per day

00:01:29.480 if the devices i saw in the picture are the right devices it looks like maybe the size of i don't know

00:01:36.920 two or three refrigerators put together so it's not a it's not like a factory size it's something you

00:01:43.900 could put on trucks i think and uh they must have they must have figured out some way to make this

00:01:50.900 more efficient likewise you may be aware that israel had offered to iran i believe to help them with

00:01:57.920 desalinization because israel's good on desalinization they need to be because they need to get water 0.70

00:02:04.480 wherever they can um but then there was the third thing that jake novak pointed out you should follow

00:02:10.860 him on twitter by the way um that there is another israeli company that developed a drip irrigation

00:02:18.000 system for growing rice so you don't have to flood the rice paddies so so those are the three things

00:02:26.740 desalinization taking water directly from the air in some new efficient way better than before i guess

00:02:33.240 and then a way to do agriculture with way less water some kind of a drip irrigation system 0.53

00:02:38.660 so you take those three three things collectively and uh that's a pretty big deal

00:02:45.780 you know you you don't see them all at the same time so you sort of lose sight of the fact that while

00:02:52.920 we were thinking about other things israel used technology basically in science to solve one of the biggest

00:03:01.900 problems in the world that we might run out of fresh water now think about um your 80 year

00:03:08.700 predict projections for climate change what is one of the base assumptions of of the the assumption that

00:03:17.680 climate change will be devastating in the future well the problem is that things that are working now

00:03:23.960 will break such as people who have access to water might have droughts in the future and other people

00:03:31.660 might have floods and i've been saying forever that you can't do that kind of a 80 year projection

00:03:38.240 because there would be too many inventions and surprises along the way can't predict that stuff well

00:03:44.020 here's one in in what part of the 80 year projection of you know water needs and and climate change and all

00:03:53.480 that where did they calculate that israel would pioneer you know or or improve three major uses of water

00:04:02.720 and actually create it out of the sky more efficiently so that's all good news i'll put that out there

00:04:10.980 i noticed today that uh one of the one of the trending things on twitter most of the morning

00:04:17.760 was the phrase dementia joe so of course i clicked on it to see what that was all about

00:04:25.580 and one of the things i noticed is that uh i guess a number of conservatives are using it

00:04:30.960 uh to refer to joe in his speech etc but democrats really don't like this hashtag

00:04:38.460 which is partly why it was trending because they were they were fighting against it so much it just

00:04:44.300 made it true but um that's an interesting thing isn't it why is it that of all the things that

00:04:52.320 anybody can say about biden this one you can tell by the comments it sort of it sort of hit a nerve

00:04:58.560 somehow whereas normal political speech doesn't always hit a nerve it's just more routine

00:05:05.000 and i feel as if there's a thing happening now and it's happening in slow motion and it's hilarious

00:05:13.500 because we can't really talk about it exactly and it goes like this all of the people who supported

00:05:23.880 biden for president had to mentally do something to be okay with the fact that quite obviously he wasn't

00:05:33.860 as sharp as he used to be now i imagine that the way they dealt with it is either to just not think

00:05:40.280 about it because all they cared about is getting rid of trump or they met they minimized it in their

00:05:45.960 minds to the point of well yeah okay he's he's older but it's not that big a deal but the predictable

00:05:55.260 the predictable the predictable arc of things is that it's just going to get more and more obvious

00:06:01.500 51 days without a press conference 51 days without a press conference it's kind of obvious now and then

00:06:11.280 you see all the the gaff clips etc so i feel as if the democrats are feeling exposed meaning that

00:06:21.920 um it's going to look like everything that conservatives said about joe biden's mental

00:06:27.980 capacity is not just true but it's really really obviously true and it matters how are they going to

00:06:36.400 deal with that how does anybody deal with being wrong well most of us do it the same way we we get

00:06:43.320 triggered into cognitive dissonance and then we somehow explain it like it wasn't wrong even if it was

00:06:49.800 so uh i'll just note that dementia joe seems to really get under their their skin in case you

00:06:57.480 want to use that now the democrats are trying to respond with their own hashtag which is getting a

00:07:05.120 lot of use damn straight and a number of tweets to say stuff like we finally got a real president

00:07:13.540 damn straight so i don't know i think damn straight is in the category of no malarkey

00:07:23.400 it's like people coming up with slogans who are not good at coming up with slogans 0.98

00:07:30.300 damn straight how does that how does that hit you it just feels a little cringy doesn't it yeah okay

00:07:41.020 if somebody was actually typing cringe as i said it uh it's a little bit cringy compare that to 0.99

00:07:48.120 make america great again and i know people had their problems with it thinking it was some kind

00:07:53.800 of a racial thing but in terms of coming up with a slogan or you know a branding when you see when you

00:08:02.680 start to see people who are not good at it do it directly after you've watched trump be really

00:08:08.880 really good at it like as good maybe better than anybody's ever been right if you count all those

00:08:15.300 nicknames you know everything from low energy to you know lion ted to you know if you count all of that

00:08:21.620 trump was basically hitting home runs every time he got up to bat you know drain the swamp almost

00:08:29.300 everything that trump tried to turn into a saying or a logo or a statement worked everything from fake

00:08:38.180 news you name it he turned everything he wanted to turn into a you know into a thing he turned it

00:08:44.840 into a thing but then you watch people who are not good at it damn straight damn straight 0.60

00:08:52.060 it trended today but i don't think it's going to turn into anything it feels a little like no malarkey

00:09:00.780 if you know what i mean people who don't know how to do this trying to do it

00:09:05.440 uh this morning uh brian stelter uh tweeted he showed a screen screenshot that i've been laughing

00:09:15.180 about for a while so apparently when biden was giving his speech fox news ran a chyron the the words

00:09:21.820 that go at the bottom of the screen there they ran a chyron that said uh

00:09:25.660 and what's funny about this is that this is a news channel and the the uh the amount of uh

00:09:36.860 you know partisanship uh sometimes it crosses that line where you just have to laugh it's just

00:09:42.820 hilarious so here here's fox news's label for biden's speech while he's talking so while he's

00:09:50.680 talking below and it says low bar colon biden survives short scripted speech survives what

00:10:01.600 kind of news is that he survives it because because it it gives you the impression especially because

00:10:11.200 it's a you know allegedly a news channel it gives you the impression that there was some

00:10:16.880 chance he would die right in front of you or that his career would be over because you know because

00:10:27.060 he would be so undependable that he would just spout out something crazy and it would be it would be over 0.96

00:10:32.100 now let me say if cnn had done a chyron as ridiculous as this one i would have i would have also called

00:10:44.520 it out right so this this works both ways but i have to give fox news credit because theirs is pretty

00:10:52.000 funny i think if it's funny you get a little extra a little extra forgiveness right and i feel like

00:11:01.980 that fox news accomplished that so whoever whoever it is i know there's some fox news producer watching

00:11:08.480 this right now but uh whoever it is who's in charge of that chyron good job from an entertainment

00:11:16.300 perspective it was a good job so here's the second part of that story so after i saw this uh and it

00:11:24.180 was you know brian stelter from cnn talking about fox news and how they cover stuff i tweeted that 20

00:11:30.400 of all news involves people in the news business criticizing each other now when i said 20 that

00:11:40.040 wasn't to be taken as an actual estimate right it's just that it seems like they spend a lot of time

00:11:46.320 criticizing the other channel if you turn on fox news they're talking about cnn you turn on cnn

00:11:52.280 they're talking about fox news and so uh so so i tweeted 20 of it is just that and within a few minutes

00:12:02.480 brian stelter tweeted back uh at me and he said uh no it does not or i don't know he tweeted not

00:12:10.920 necessarily at me uh and here's the thing when i'm using social media

00:12:18.920 i forget sometimes especially if it's somebody famous who's you know like brian stelter somebody

00:12:27.660 you know i forget that they actually read it like somehow somehow my brain can't

00:12:35.200 it can't handle the fact that i'm typing you know using a tool which of course the whole point of it is

00:12:42.260 people are reading it and i still can't i can't get it in my head that when i type

00:12:48.860 a response to somebody famous they'll actually read it it still blows me away and so when he when

00:12:55.520 he tweeted back i was thinking oh we actually read that

00:12:59.260 and

00:13:01.600 and um

00:13:03.280 and i i understand when i do it why people are so mean and ugly to me because every now and then

00:13:14.060 i'll respond back to some troll who just said something awful about me and uh and and sometimes

00:13:20.720 they'll say something like whoa whoa i didn't think you'd read it

00:13:23.120 so

00:13:25.300 uh just remember there are real people reading this stuff

00:13:29.160 uh

00:13:31.220 jack basabic reports that he's hearing from his uh multiple insider sources at the white house

00:13:38.600 that uh kamala harris is getting the full uh the pdb what is that daily the um it's the briefing

00:13:47.880 what does the pd stand for daily briefing presidential daily briefing i'm going to go with

00:13:53.840 let's let's say that i'm going to say presidential daily briefing but uh kamala harris is getting the 1.00

00:14:00.880 full full one uh which even we think that even biden didn't get that when he was vice president

00:14:07.540 now getting back to my earlier comments about how democrats are going to have to come to terms with

00:14:15.020 the fact that they elected somebody who quite clearly is not medically fully available if you

00:14:22.200 know what i mean and every time there's this little bit of you know the cats on the roof

00:14:26.860 it seems like it's going forever isn't it like how long have we seen these cats on the roof like

00:14:32.880 well it's a little bit of a hint that they're not expecting him to last that long even biden says

00:14:38.480 stuff like he's not going to run for a second term etc so it's just funny every every time you see

00:14:46.340 another another piece of evidence that it's clearly the plan to put her in place uh you just got to

00:14:53.500 wonder what they're thinking so i hear that comedians are having a hard time mocking biden

00:14:59.540 because they don't have anything to grab onto you know trump was easy he had just a million targets

00:15:06.840 that you could shoot at but biden is super boring and if you were to ask people what's the one

00:15:14.000 sort of i don't know personality thing that stands out or or what do you think of when you think of joe 0.80

00:15:21.520 biden what's the what's the top thing that comes to mind it's medical it's medical right his his

00:15:29.460 mental capacity and it's not really super cool to make humor about people's medical conditions

00:15:38.220 now i would think a president's a little bit of an exception to that because sometimes you have to

00:15:43.540 mock things to get them fixed and maybe having a president who's not quite all there needs to get

00:15:49.520 fixed so he's a special case but isn't it interesting that he's so bland the only thing you could mock

00:15:59.720 you don't because it's real if don't you think that they would be mocking biden uh if they thought

00:16:08.840 that wasn't real don't you think they'd be there would be more people on the even on the left who 0.96

00:16:15.380 would take a run at it it's like oh he's dumb ha ha ha you know ha ha ha he's not as fast as he used 0.93

00:16:22.060 to be ha ha ha he does some gaffs but they don't really do that do they they don't really do that 0.96

00:16:29.580 somebody says they mocked uh reagan um was reagan ever this bad you know i'm trying to remember

00:16:38.680 yeah i think you could certainly detect there was something going on with reagan i don't think

00:16:43.660 reagan was ever like this was he maybe i just don't remember it clearly all right so i watched

00:16:51.560 let's talk about biden's speech uh i might surprise you by saying i thought it was pretty good pretty

00:16:58.100 good if i'm if i'm going to be objective which is the only value i have to you is trying to be

00:17:03.940 unbiased if i can i thought his speech was pretty solid meaning that what he was trying to do was

00:17:10.860 project empathy and he gave us some dates which i wanted i wanted to hear a date when he thinks he

00:17:17.720 can get the vaccinations may 1st everybody should have access to it it's good um

00:17:23.840 yeah i'm seeing your comments about whether reagan was as bad a little bit of a disagreement about

00:17:31.380 whether he was he was as bad some say yes some say no so i i don't have a strong memory of that at

00:17:38.400 this point but uh so i'm going to give uh biden uh you know a solid a solid mark it was not exciting

00:17:45.480 i literally started falling asleep toward the end it dragged on it was a little too long

00:17:52.520 you know he's not like a great deliverer of anything but for what the country needed

00:17:58.380 it was pretty solid good information fairly specific now the of course the thing that everybody's

00:18:05.560 mocking uh is the uh i think everyone who watched this had some kind of similar feeling to it

00:18:14.740 when he was saying that by fourth of july he's hoping that people can get together for their fourth

00:18:21.080 of july barbecues and whatnot and that he slipped in but not large groups and i'm sitting here thinking

00:18:29.460 what did you just say and and then he sort of i think he clarified it again you know that you'd be able

00:18:37.300 to have fourth of july but not in a large get together to which i and something like 300 plus million

00:18:46.340 americans or i don't know whatever tens of millions were watching the speech simultaneously said to

00:18:53.140 themselves see see if this happened in your head did you simultaneously all over the country say to 1.00

00:19:00.740 yourself fuck you fuck you here's what's going to happen on july 4th i and every one of you are going 1.00

00:19:12.220 to make your own fucking mind up about what you're going to do and the government's instructions to you 1.00

00:19:17.860 by july 4th because by then it's it's a different situation we hope by july 4th it's not the government's 0.97

00:19:25.860 decision and even their suggestion will be taken as a suggestion all right by july people are going to

00:19:36.780 do any fucking thing they want and i don't think there's any any way around that now a lot of people 0.89

00:19:43.920 will want to play it safe a lot of people will want to do what the government suggests because 0.99

00:19:49.360 they want to that's fine but there was something about the way he presented it that carried with it

00:19:58.480 a whiff of presumption that the government can tell you how to uh celebrate the fourth of july 0.96

00:20:06.460 in your own fucking backyard and that didn't go down well did it how'd that feel didn't feel good 0.95

00:20:16.340 didn't feel good and and i've been quite supportive of the government having some you know a big hand 0.99

00:20:24.440 in the pandemic i think sometimes the government needs to be the the one with a big hand or a big

00:20:30.040 footprint i guess uh but that would be too far right there's a point where everybody says it's too

00:20:36.200 far and i think biden reached that so that's not the biggest problem in the world the the other

00:20:41.080 thing about his speech is that there's a lot of darkness and gloom and it was kind of long and

00:20:45.780 boring and low energy but uh it got the job done um here's a question i have for you if you believe

00:20:53.640 that biden is doing a good job with pandemic management and i would say he is does anybody disagree

00:21:01.520 with that is there any disagreement that biden is the administration is doing a solid job with the

00:21:08.880 uh i i i would fault him with school openings he should put more pressure on the teachers unions

00:21:15.020 that's a big deal but i feel like i feel like it's you know happening like people are going back to

00:21:21.160 school already vaccinations are looking pretty solid messaging looks pretty good i think he's solid

00:21:27.360 but here's the question what is it that biden has done that the trump administration would not have

00:21:35.220 you know predictably done so for example under under biden the rate of vaccinations is way up

00:21:42.640 well don't you think that would have happened under trump as well because we know that however it starts

00:21:49.000 is going to be slow compared to you know how quickly it will ramp up so i don't see any reason that

00:21:55.120 we should assume biden did a better job i don't see any evidence for that and in fact trump might

00:22:00.900 have put more pressure on teachers unions although that could have been counterproductive

00:22:05.320 you could make an argument that if trump had gone harder at teachers unions they would have just

00:22:12.040 hardened their their stand against him so it's hard to predict but i don't think there's any reason

00:22:17.620 to think biden did a better job than trump would have if he had been in office

00:22:21.480 um i tweeted yesterday something that i knew would get uh get people angry or bothered

00:22:29.360 but there wouldn't be a reason which is my favorite kind of tweet where people would feel like they

00:22:37.480 should be offended on behalf of somebody else they're not sure who and they're not sure exactly why

00:22:44.620 but they're definitely offended if they could only figure out why

00:22:49.780 and here was my tweet

00:22:53.020 um

00:22:54.800 i i said that uh if i were the uh if i were the attorney defending uh derek chauvin the uh

00:23:04.540 officer who's charged with uh now i guess second or third degree murder one of those murders

00:23:09.680 i would say that i would deliver my closing argument laying on the ground if i were the lawyer

00:23:16.380 laying on the ground and i would have my client put his knee on my neck 1.00

00:23:21.420 much the way he did with george floyd and for the entire nine minutes i would time it so it was the

00:23:28.660 same amount of time as as uh floyd was held down as the lawyer i would just speak normally

00:23:34.680 and i would just have the you know i'd be on the ground with the the officers now not officer but

00:23:42.300 ex-officers knee on my neck and i would say all right we've presented all the evidence and as you

00:23:48.680 can see you know there's uh plenty of uh reasonable doubt the main reason that you uh and the world was

00:23:55.500 so concerned is that the visual of this is just deeply disturbing but as you can see the reason that

00:24:02.360 this is a legal hold and it's trained and the officers are trained this way is that if you do

00:24:07.960 it right it doesn't put much pressure on the neck and as you can see i'm delivering my closing arguments

00:24:13.240 uh completely uh without any air restricted and yet i can't move i can't get up can't get up now

00:24:21.720 uh do you think people complained about that tweet oh yeah you always get this guy do you know who

00:24:33.240 this guy is he's the he's the guy it's usually a guy it's usually a guy right could be a woman 0.99

00:24:42.040 i don't want to be sexist but it's usually a guy who comes in and says something like this

00:24:49.720 a man died

00:24:52.760 you're laughing and a man died this is not a joke you always need that guy right the guy to remind us

00:25:08.960 that there was a tragedy is there anything that is more well understood than whatever the whatever

00:25:17.000 that was it was a tragedy is there anybody who doesn't know that and here's the second part

00:25:26.520 it wasn't a joke if you laughed on it if you laughed at it well that's sort of on you

00:25:34.200 because it wasn't written as a joke it was written as a persuasion now of course i don't assume

00:25:43.560 that the lawyer would do anything like that in order to do that you need a certain kind of personality

00:25:49.720 let's say johnny cochran if johnny cochran cochran were alive and he heard that idea

00:25:58.280 what do you think if johnny cochran heard that idea and he were the defense attorney just lay on the

00:26:07.560 ground put the knee on you and do your closing argument just like that he would at least consider

00:26:14.280 it now he might say no that's too far or whatever because you know clearly he was the highest level

00:26:20.520 of defense attorney so he might say that's a bad idea for good reasons but i think he'd at least

00:26:26.840 consider it i think he'd consider it i i feel as if he would give it a good thought and here's the

00:26:34.360 thing there is nothing disrespectful about that nothing it's not even a little bit disrespectful

00:26:41.800 it's persuasive i mean if it worked right now here i'm making a big assumption that i think is fair

00:26:49.320 which is that if somebody has their is holding you down with that knee hold on your neck they probably

00:26:55.240 have a lot of leeway in terms of how painful or damaging that is and i don't think you can tell

00:27:02.520 just by looking at it on the video i don't think you could tell so it would be a it would be i don't

00:27:08.120 know how they could possibly convict let me ask you this if you saw that closing argument and you

00:27:15.400 watched it for nine minutes and you watched the lawyer talk normally could you convict because that

00:27:21.800 that removes all the reasonable doubt i mean it's just gone at that point

00:27:25.400 i would have done it all right there's a study and of israel israel's in the news a lot

00:27:35.400 that they think aspirin may protect against covid they thought you know there's some evidence it does

00:27:42.120 um andres beckhouse commented on that to point out is a low quality study and uh i wouldn't start

00:27:51.160 taking aspirin because number one you know i i usually tell you don't get your medical advice

00:27:58.440 from me but i'm actually going to give you medical advice right now don't start taking aspirin unless

00:28:05.160 you talk to your doctor i feel that safe right it feels like that's safe medical advice um i used to

00:28:11.640 take a baby aspirin every day because for i don't know decades i believe that the science said

00:28:18.920 that it would protect you against uh strokes or heart attacks or something and so i'd take my

00:28:24.280 little baby aspirin every single day the new science or at least the latest thinking is there's

00:28:30.760 no indication whatsoever that the aspirin is going to protect you from any of that stuff

00:28:36.120 and it might have some negative effects because aspirin is not exactly harmless

00:28:40.680 um so i wouldn't trust anything about an aspirin study just in general but not that one um here's

00:28:52.440 an interesting thing to watch i've been asking the question who is the the conservative voice now

00:29:00.760 because trump himself is sort of uh at the moment a little bit off the stage

00:29:05.400 uh coincidentally uh rush limbaugh passed you would think of him as maybe the dominant voice

00:29:13.800 in conservative politics so now the the two most dominant voices are out of the game

00:29:20.280 and i was watching as a um tucker carlson show came on immediately after the biden speech

00:29:27.320 and there's there's an interesting phenomenon you have to experience and maybe you did you probably

00:29:34.360 did which is you watch the event yourself so you're watching the biden speech or any any other event

00:29:41.080 and then you're forming an opinion and you're thinking oh i think this about it or that about it

00:29:46.840 and then you see somebody like tucker carlson give you a very strong opinion and a take if you will

00:29:55.320 how quickly does your sort of generic forming opinion start to match identically to tucker carlson's

00:30:04.920 opinion because it's the first thing you heard while you are still trying to form your opinion

00:30:10.840 and he is so certain when he speaks it's one of the things he does well he speaks with a kind of

00:30:16.440 certainty that is very persuasive i felt you know i've told you before that we don't make up our own

00:30:23.000 opinions on politics you think you do but you don't now i'm not saying that's a hundred percent

00:30:30.600 true but it's close enough to a hundred percent true that you could treat it that way meaning that

00:30:35.960 whether you're on the left or the right if you were to look at your political opinion on any topic

00:30:42.600 you will be amazed and surprised that it matches whoever you watch on tv the most

00:30:47.640 most of the time it just matches who you watch on tv and it's because your opinion was assigned to you

00:30:55.240 the people who are good at expressing things they express an opinion and then you just adopt it

00:31:00.920 it's like oh that's a good way to think about it that's my opinion now but watching tucker carlson assign

00:31:07.480 opinions to fox news viewers in real time was sort of mind-blowing and i watched that happen last night

00:31:15.480 because i i wanted to see i was sort of monitoring my own opinion to see when it got formed

00:31:22.600 to yeah because i was i was feeling oh that's a sort of a boring good biden speech you know he didn't

00:31:29.640 hurt anybody didn't hurt himself got the job done and then as soon as i turned on tucker it's a it's a

00:31:37.400 you know it's a dumpster fire and what he said about fourth of july is crazy you know i agree with

00:31:42.120 them of course on the fourth of july stuff um but the other thing is that as somebody's saying in

00:31:50.600 the comments part of what makes tucker so powerful is not just that other voices got decreased which is

00:31:57.480 a big deal but that he's really good like really really good at his job and he seems to be getting

00:32:06.680 better and at at his current age you know i'm not sure you'd expect his quality of production to just

00:32:14.920 keep getting better but it is right in front of your eyes i i think he's unquestionably at his highest

00:32:22.520 level of uh quality as well as importance you know his impact on the country so i feel as if he he just

00:32:33.160 became the guy i feel as if you know if you've been looking for who's the the voice of the conservatives

00:32:41.560 it feels like it's him it feels like it now not to say there aren't other voices but he does seem to

00:32:49.080 have emerged as the the prime voice um over in portland i guess there have been nightly protests and

00:32:57.720 stuff for almost a year now um and there i read that some portland business owners are boarding up

00:33:05.960 their businesses because they're expecting more trouble from everything from the george floyd stuff

00:33:11.080 to who knows what and i thought to myself there are still businesses in portland why would you stay in

00:33:19.240 portland if if there were protests for a year i don't know it seems like that would be long enough to

00:33:26.200 make other plans but it's hard to move a business i know but i can't believe there are any businesses

00:33:32.280 left um here's another compliment to the biden administration you didn't see this coming

00:33:39.720 pete budigieg as the transportation secretary is a really good choice he's a really good choice i don't

00:33:48.680 know if you you remember but budigieg's background is uh as a business consultant i mean that was his

00:33:56.120 first role and you don't get the was it bain i think you worked for but you don't get that kind

00:34:01.880 of a job unless you're just crackling smart and you just came out of harvard usually as he did but the

00:34:08.760 the thing that makes this perfect is that it's a purely um it's an analytical job oh mckinsey somebody's

00:34:17.320 saying it was mckinsey that's right so he was a mckinsey consultant but he has exactly the right skill

00:34:23.720 set exactly the right skill set for uh transportation and infrastructure because those are things that

00:34:30.600 people sort of are more likely to agree on right we're a little bit closer on the need for an

00:34:36.600 infrastructure package package than we are for probably almost anything else he's perfect so you

00:34:44.360 know i'm going to give the biden administration a an a plus on that appointment we'll see if he delivers

00:34:50.920 right still has to deliver but that's a perfect fit of of training and competence with job um you're

00:35:00.600 the astrazeneca's vaccination some people thought it might cause blood clots but now they've looked

00:35:07.240 at the data and they say nope no blood clots so that story about the vaccinations being a problem

00:35:13.960 is fake news as far as we know um there's still a lot of concern that people will not get the

00:35:20.920 vaccinations because they're afraid of it or uh mostly they're afraid of it and i'm going to predict

00:35:30.280 that in the end that won't be a problem my uh prediction slash observation is that um because supply

00:35:40.440 is limited that people's willingness to get the shot is going to match the supply all the way to the

00:35:46.760 end meaning that um you'll get enough people vaccinated to get to wherever we need to get

00:35:55.560 people like me are quietly saying they're skeptical until the last minute you should stay skeptical

00:36:04.440 until you have a chance to get the shot and then take all the information that you have up to that

00:36:09.240 point and make your decision but you don't need to make a decision until the shot's available something

00:36:16.040 tells me that a lot of the people who are sort of talking about not getting the shot when they really

00:36:22.360 really think it through and when they watch how many people have gotten the shot and it doesn't

00:36:27.720 they haven't heard that many stories of bad outcomes i feel as if um a lot of people are

00:36:34.200 going to get the shot i think we'll get as many as we need i think we'll be fine there

00:36:41.560 um here's my math question for you and i asked this this morning uh i got a number of answers and i'm

00:36:50.520 still not sure of my opinion on it so help me form an opinion on it it goes like this if we had

00:36:56.520 a normal virus that affected everybody about the same way every age group then we're told that

00:37:05.240 getting to 60 70 percent herd immunity with vaccinations or prior infections that getting

00:37:12.840 there would be enough to stop the stop the spread but what if you've got a weird virus that has a special

00:37:21.960 characteristic that attacks let's say 20 of the population aggressively and 80 of the population

00:37:29.960 hardly bothers them at all what happens if you can vaccinate almost all of that 20 percent 0.98

00:37:39.880 well it won't stop the infection from spreading through the other 80 percent of course and that other

00:37:47.000 80 percent if they came in contact with the few people who didn't have it yet in that in the high

00:37:53.320 risk group then those people could get it and die so well here's the question i'm just trying to

00:38:01.240 think the the the logical math of it through i do understand there's something uh andres backhouse

00:38:09.640 said this morning on twitter that the rate of infection where it's been studied seems to be

00:38:15.560 fairly similar with every age group i didn't know that till this morning so you can get infected at

00:38:23.240 every age group which suggests that my idea doesn't make sense that if if everybody's getting infected it's

00:38:30.680 at least in that one sense it's like every other virus it's just the outcomes are different not the

00:38:36.440 infection rate so but i haven't given up yet i feel as if just to help me think this through because i

00:38:46.840 really there's too many variables here to quite grasp it but my my gut level uh statistical intuition

00:38:58.920 which is very unreliable tells me that if you vaccinate let's say 80 of the high risk people

00:39:07.720 they tend to hang out with themselves don't they senior citizens are far more likely to have you know

00:39:13.960 extended uh contact with other senior citizens they do have family contacts etc but and then kids mostly

00:39:22.440 hanging around with kids and under that scenario couldn't you uh not have herd immunity in the classic

00:39:31.240 sense where the virus just stops but in a functional sense where once you've got the high risk people

00:39:38.360 done and the low risk people are still getting infected but you don't care because they're not getting any

00:39:44.600 bad outcomes don't you sort of reach something that's like a virtual herd effect except plenty

00:39:53.240 of people are still getting infected it's just they're not dying so when we talk about herd immunity

00:40:00.280 from a regular virus we're talking about the virus just stopping it just can't spread it just stops but

00:40:06.920 maybe when we talk about herd immunity for this one what we should really be talking about is bringing the

00:40:12.600 rate of risk down to whatever is a baseline normal risk of life and i feel like we're going to hit that

00:40:21.160 really soon that's that's my uh statistical slash math intuition that we're going to hit it really soon

00:40:33.000 like way before may i'm thinking i'm thinking april

00:40:38.280 uh hospitalizations will be almost nothing um but the spread will still be widespread because the

00:40:47.960 kids will still be giving it to kids etc just won't we won't know about it so i am not convinced that

00:40:55.480 i'm right there and i'll let me make another point about your skill stacks when i when i advise you to add

00:41:02.760 uh additional talents to what you already have to make your stack of talents your talent stack is i

00:41:08.920 like to say is special statistics is one of those things you should have on there now i've taken a

00:41:14.920 course in statistics and in college but it was a million years ago i don't remember a lot of the math

00:41:21.000 but you you can develop let's say a statistical intuition about things you can get to the point where

00:41:27.480 you could look at say this aspirin study and say oh the number of people studied was small the way

00:41:34.360 they studied it is not as as good statistically so you would just have an intuition that you shouldn't

00:41:40.120 trust it necessarily and i think that's a really good thing to develop and you don't need to do all the

00:41:46.920 math to do it just spend enough time looking at the illusions of statistics the things that you

00:41:55.080 thought would be true but turned out if you do the math are not true every time you're fooled by

00:42:00.840 statistics make a little note say oh yeah that's one of those situations where it looks like it could

00:42:06.680 be the case but if you do the math it's opposite so develop try to develop some kind of like intuition

00:42:13.880 about where things are credible and where they're not independent of having the math

00:42:19.160 uh here's my most controversial uh idea of the day we know that china is sending fentanyl to the cartels 0.89

00:42:31.240 and the cartels are packaging it up in in other in drugs that look like other kinds of drugs such as

00:42:37.240 fake xanax shipping it to the united states and 50 to 70 thousand americans per year are dying from this

00:42:45.000 uh we believe that china is pursuing this you know total war idea where it is completely intentional and 0.81

00:42:55.400 they could obviously stop it because we've actually told them the name of the person in china who's sending

00:43:00.280 the fentanyl we know the name it's this guy china of course can find that guy right so there's no question

00:43:10.280 about those two facts we've told them who it is who's the you know the fentanyl kingpin in china

00:43:18.120 china knows where he is they could stop him does anybody doubt that they could stop that guy no of

00:43:25.000 course not so we have to assume it's intentional and that they are killing 50 to 70 thousand americans

00:43:31.160 per year intentionally as a plan now that's war isn't it but given the nature of all the obstacles

00:43:44.040 and variables in the world we can't just sort of attack china militarily we just do this weird thing

00:43:50.280 where we demand that they stop and then they just don't because they don't have to apparently there's no

00:43:55.800 penalty so to me it seems that mexico and the cartels are a combined allied military force

00:44:07.800 in a war with the united states now we can't attack china because they have nukes and stuff but we can 0.99

00:44:17.160 certainly attack their ally who holds territory and their allies hold the the border territory if you

00:44:25.640 didn't know this the cartels actually are the government on the border literally they're the

00:44:32.040 government the actual government wouldn't even be they'd be too afraid to even go there because they

00:44:38.280 would kill the actual government they're just not allowed so for all practical purposes mexico is not

00:44:45.480 even on our border we don't have a mexican border but i'd like one let's see if we can get one

00:44:53.000 so the way to get a mexican border for the first time is to get rid of this small uh let's say 1.00

00:45:01.400 unlabeled country owned by the cartels different cartels but they have different parts of it right

00:45:07.720 and i think that we should at least consider um annexing that territory that mexico doesn't control

00:45:16.120 now you would say to yourself whoa whoa you've gone way too far the government of mexico is never going

00:45:24.840 to allow you to annex part of that territory to which i say wouldn't that be great wouldn't it be

00:45:32.920 great if mexico surged their uh government military into that area to protect it from the united states

00:45:40.520 annexing it that'd be fine then we don't have to annex it because if the mexican military tried to

00:45:48.840 defend it they would move their military into that zone and that's all we wanted in the first place 0.91

00:45:55.640 we want mexico to be on our border so if mexico wants to be on our border 0.99

00:46:01.960 will help but of course the the real mexican government is afraid of the cartel as they should 0.67

00:46:09.480 be so they they can't really do that so what would they do if we just annexed it just took it and said

00:46:19.000 we're not taking it from mexico mexico doesn't own it and here's the best part if mexico wants it back

00:46:27.480 they can have it just ask all you have to do is control it just move your military in control the

00:46:36.920 border we'll give it right back to you you can have it back but if you don't want to do that

00:46:44.840 it's not mexico and it's not the united states it's china and i don't want a border with china 0.99

00:46:51.880 and right now we have one they happen to be the cartel working with china but for all practical

00:46:58.200 purposes we just got ourselves a border with china and they are invading and attacking over 1.00

00:47:07.080 the border so i would treat it like a chinese military exercise and when mexico complains you say

00:47:13.640 oh i hear you what you're saying but it's not really about us this isn't about the united states

00:47:19.400 in mexico we don't have any complaints with mexico at all not the mexican government we have a

00:47:26.680 complaint with china who is working with this cartel these cartels who own this territory this has nothing

00:47:32.840 to do with you but if you would like it to be about you we would like that too you could join us but

00:47:40.440 until then it's it's war with china and we'll just treat it that way 0.66

00:47:44.360 in the comments somebody says this idea is so crazy it could work let me tell you about uh so

00:47:53.080 crazy it could work that's exactly right it's exactly right the the idea is not so much that you would

00:48:01.400 actually annex it but you would change the frame you would reframe the situation from uh an immigration

00:48:09.880 problem a drug problem a crime problem because that's not getting us anywhere is it the way we

00:48:17.720 we currently frame and think about the border is giving us nothing but worse problems if you reframe

00:48:24.120 how you think about it that opens up options you don't necessarily know where that ends up it could

00:48:30.280 end up with mexico just defending their own border better that'd be fine but the reframe just gets you

00:48:36.760 out of the broken and bankrupt uh way of thinking the bankrupt way of thinking is that we have a

00:48:44.760 crime immigration problem at the border that's just not what's going on what's going on is that china 0.92

00:48:51.320 is attacking the united states right now successfully and we're not defending against an attack by china 0.97

00:48:58.600 mexico mexico you're just not part of the question i wish you were honestly i wish you were part of the

00:49:08.360 question but you're not the cartels are all right um here's uh the most uh this will just make your head

00:49:20.680 spin for a while i believe there's another sexual category and i'm just going to put this out there

00:49:31.400 and then you won't you won't accept this at first but wait till you look into it okay some of you will

00:49:39.640 be able to go home immediately and ask somebody for confirmation most of you won't but watch watch what

00:49:46.920 happens when you do if you said to a uh let's say a teenage girl in the united states in 2021 so it's

00:49:57.080 just a your average teenage girl and you say that teenage girl what is your uh your orientation

00:50:05.320 they'll tell you they'll say uh i'm either straight or i'm gay or um uh or i'm bi

00:50:11.880 and they'll and they'll tell you just right now so at least in today's world uh i don't see

00:50:20.520 at least nothing like it used to be in terms of anybody saying that they're gay or they're lesbian

00:50:26.680 or anything else so the first thing that would be eye-opening is that a teenager today is far more

00:50:34.200 likely to just you know be completely open about what their sexuality is here's the shocking part

00:50:44.760 ask a uh ask a girl who identifies as heterosexual not bisexual they have to identify as heterosexual and 0.82

00:50:54.360 then ask this question would you ever marry a woman

00:51:02.920 there was a time if you asked somebody who identified as heterosexual would you ever marry

00:51:08.920 somebody of the same gender they would have said well no what do you think heterosexual means

00:51:15.240 that's the whole point of heterosexual is no i'm i'm interested in the other gender

00:51:20.280 not today if you if you ask a teenage girl today would are you heterosexual she says yes totally

00:51:29.960 heterosexual i'm not bi at all but would you marry a woman if you fell in love they will say yes 0.94

00:51:38.200 and won't even blink at it it's it's kind of interesting it's it's neither good nor bad i'm not

00:51:44.760 putting any kind of judgment on it it's just a uh an evolution that's uh sort of fascinating to watch

00:51:53.720 um now i don't think that men would answer the same i don't think a teenage boy who identified as

00:52:00.920 heterosexual if you asked would you ever marry another man probably would say no you know in 2021 0.96

00:52:07.720 still probably not everyone but more more often uh somebody's asking the question what would happen 0.76

00:52:16.200 if you asked a let's say a teenage white girl if she would marry a black person i've i've heard

00:52:25.320 teenagers discussing that very question and 100 of them said yes and there were more people who say

00:52:31.320 they prefer it in fact several said they prefer it but i've never heard anybody in uh in the modern era

00:52:41.320 say that they wouldn't i haven't heard it so i don't think there's anybody at least maybe this is a

00:52:48.600 california thing so it could be really different where you live california tends to be five to ten years

00:52:54.440 ahead of some of these things um somebody says would you stay with a spouse who changes their gender

00:53:05.480 i think it depends it depends right there's no there's no one answer to that that would depend on the

00:53:11.800 two people uh when are you in the company of teenagers well i don't hang with teenagers but uh let's say

00:53:20.040 if you have a a family situation you're exposed to them whether you like it or not so the the answer

00:53:28.440 is through family connections um but i'm not talking about anybody in my family i'm talking about a general

00:53:40.040 statement

00:53:44.360 if you ask a personal question to a group you'll get a peer answer yeah yeah

00:53:49.800 i think so

00:53:56.040 um yeah just looking at your comments okay well i didn't know if that would be surprising to many

00:54:00.040 of you or not it's a sign of the times probably a good one good sign of the times because the uh

00:54:07.400 the teens the teens are definitely woke there's no doubt about that and uh that's not all bad all

00:54:16.360 right that's all for now and i'll talk to you later

00:54:24.920 all right

00:54:29.080 your teens are not woke

00:54:30.280 all right

00:54:34.120 all right that's all for now i will uh talk to you tomorrow too

00:54:36.840 you

00:54:54.280 you

00:54:54.520 you

00:54:54.840 you

00:54:54.860 you

00:54:55.000 you

00:54:56.060 you

00:54:58.480 you

00:54:58.580 you

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 12, 2021

Episode 1311 Scott Adams： Biden's Boring Speech, Israel Solves Water Shortages, George Floyd Defense Strategy, and More

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