Real Coffee with Scott Adams - March 12, 2021


Episode 1311 Scott Adams： Biden's Boring Speech, Israel Solves Water Shortages, George Floyd Defense Strategy, and More


Episode Stats

Length

54 minutes

Words per Minute

149.8263

Word Count

8,237

Sentence Count

1

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

23


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 well it's the best part of the day again isn't it great that you get one of these every day
00:00:08.480 yeah you wake up and next thing you know you're having a simultaneous sip and you're thinking
00:00:14.640 wow this is great and it is every single time and to make it even greater all you need is a
00:00:20.880 copper marker glass a tank of chalice canteen jug of flask vessel of any kind fill it with
00:00:26.840 your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of
00:00:32.960 the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and watch how good
00:00:39.400 this is you ready go yeah i don't think i oversold it that was pretty spectacular well should we start
00:00:51.940 with the good news that nobody seems to be reporting when i say nobody i mean nobody except
00:00:58.700 jake novak who put together three facts that i was not aware of uh and when you see them together
00:01:07.460 it's quite a story and the facts are these number one an israeli company has built these devices that
00:01:16.940 can extract drinking water from the air so it will take the humidity the moisture in the air
00:01:22.960 and it very effectively turns it into water up to 800 liters of fresh water per day
00:01:29.480 if the devices i saw in the picture are the right devices it looks like maybe the size of i don't know
00:01:36.920 two or three refrigerators put together so it's not a it's not like a factory size it's something you
00:01:43.900 could put on trucks i think and uh they must have they must have figured out some way to make this
00:01:50.900 more efficient likewise you may be aware that israel had offered to iran i believe to help them with
00:01:57.920 desalinization because israel's good on desalinization they need to be because they need to get water
00:02:04.480 wherever they can um but then there was the third thing that jake novak pointed out you should follow
00:02:10.860 him on twitter by the way um that there is another israeli company that developed a drip irrigation
00:02:18.000 system for growing rice so you don't have to flood the rice paddies so so those are the three things
00:02:26.740 desalinization taking water directly from the air in some new efficient way better than before i guess
00:02:33.240 and then a way to do agriculture with way less water some kind of a drip irrigation system
00:02:38.660 so you take those three three things collectively and uh that's a pretty big deal
00:02:45.780 you know you you don't see them all at the same time so you sort of lose sight of the fact that while
00:02:52.920 we were thinking about other things israel used technology basically in science to solve one of the biggest
00:03:01.900 problems in the world that we might run out of fresh water now think about um your 80 year
00:03:08.700 predict projections for climate change what is one of the base assumptions of of the the assumption that
00:03:17.680 climate change will be devastating in the future well the problem is that things that are working now
00:03:23.960 will break such as people who have access to water might have droughts in the future and other people
00:03:31.660 might have floods and i've been saying forever that you can't do that kind of a 80 year projection
00:03:38.240 because there would be too many inventions and surprises along the way can't predict that stuff well
00:03:44.020 here's one in in what part of the 80 year projection of you know water needs and and climate change and all
00:03:53.480 that where did they calculate that israel would pioneer you know or or improve three major uses of water
00:04:02.720 and actually create it out of the sky more efficiently so that's all good news i'll put that out there
00:04:10.980 i noticed today that uh one of the one of the trending things on twitter most of the morning
00:04:17.760 was the phrase dementia joe so of course i clicked on it to see what that was all about
00:04:25.580 and one of the things i noticed is that uh i guess a number of conservatives are using it
00:04:30.960 uh to refer to joe in his speech etc but democrats really don't like this hashtag
00:04:38.460 which is partly why it was trending because they were they were fighting against it so much it just
00:04:44.300 made it true but um that's an interesting thing isn't it why is it that of all the things that
00:04:52.320 anybody can say about biden this one you can tell by the comments it sort of it sort of hit a nerve
00:04:58.560 somehow whereas normal political speech doesn't always hit a nerve it's just more routine
00:05:05.000 and i feel as if there's a thing happening now and it's happening in slow motion and it's hilarious
00:05:13.500 because we can't really talk about it exactly and it goes like this all of the people who supported
00:05:23.880 biden for president had to mentally do something to be okay with the fact that quite obviously he wasn't
00:05:33.860 as sharp as he used to be now i imagine that the way they dealt with it is either to just not think
00:05:40.280 about it because all they cared about is getting rid of trump or they met they minimized it in their
00:05:45.960 minds to the point of well yeah okay he's he's older but it's not that big a deal but the predictable
00:05:55.260 the predictable the predictable arc of things is that it's just going to get more and more obvious
00:06:01.500 51 days without a press conference 51 days without a press conference it's kind of obvious now and then
00:06:11.280 you see all the the gaff clips etc so i feel as if the democrats are feeling exposed meaning that
00:06:21.920 um it's going to look like everything that conservatives said about joe biden's mental
00:06:27.980 capacity is not just true but it's really really obviously true and it matters how are they going to
00:06:36.400 deal with that how does anybody deal with being wrong well most of us do it the same way we we get
00:06:43.320 triggered into cognitive dissonance and then we somehow explain it like it wasn't wrong even if it was
00:06:49.800 so uh i'll just note that dementia joe seems to really get under their their skin in case you
00:06:57.480 want to use that now the democrats are trying to respond with their own hashtag which is getting a
00:07:05.120 lot of use damn straight and a number of tweets to say stuff like we finally got a real president
00:07:13.540 damn straight so i don't know i think damn straight is in the category of no malarkey
00:07:23.400 it's like people coming up with slogans who are not good at coming up with slogans
00:07:30.300 damn straight how does that how does that hit you it just feels a little cringy doesn't it yeah okay
00:07:41.020 if somebody was actually typing cringe as i said it uh it's a little bit cringy compare that to
00:07:48.120 make america great again and i know people had their problems with it thinking it was some kind
00:07:53.800 of a racial thing but in terms of coming up with a slogan or you know a branding when you see when you
00:08:02.680 start to see people who are not good at it do it directly after you've watched trump be really
00:08:08.880 really good at it like as good maybe better than anybody's ever been right if you count all those
00:08:15.300 nicknames you know everything from low energy to you know lion ted to you know if you count all of that
00:08:21.620 trump was basically hitting home runs every time he got up to bat you know drain the swamp almost
00:08:29.300 everything that trump tried to turn into a saying or a logo or a statement worked everything from fake
00:08:38.180 news you name it he turned everything he wanted to turn into a you know into a thing he turned it
00:08:44.840 into a thing but then you watch people who are not good at it damn straight damn straight
00:08:52.060 it trended today but i don't think it's going to turn into anything it feels a little like no malarkey
00:09:00.780 if you know what i mean people who don't know how to do this trying to do it
00:09:05.440 uh this morning uh brian stelter uh tweeted he showed a screen screenshot that i've been laughing
00:09:15.180 about for a while so apparently when biden was giving his speech fox news ran a chyron the the words
00:09:21.820 that go at the bottom of the screen there they ran a chyron that said uh
00:09:25.660 and what's funny about this is that this is a news channel and the the uh the amount of uh
00:09:36.860 you know partisanship uh sometimes it crosses that line where you just have to laugh it's just
00:09:42.820 hilarious so here here's fox news's label for biden's speech while he's talking so while he's
00:09:50.680 talking below and it says low bar colon biden survives short scripted speech survives what
00:10:01.600 kind of news is that he survives it because because it it gives you the impression especially because
00:10:11.200 it's a you know allegedly a news channel it gives you the impression that there was some
00:10:16.880 chance he would die right in front of you or that his career would be over because you know because
00:10:27.060 he would be so undependable that he would just spout out something crazy and it would be it would be over
00:10:32.100 now let me say if cnn had done a chyron as ridiculous as this one i would have i would have also called
00:10:44.520 it out right so this this works both ways but i have to give fox news credit because theirs is pretty
00:10:52.000 funny i think if it's funny you get a little extra a little extra forgiveness right and i feel like
00:11:01.980 that fox news accomplished that so whoever whoever it is i know there's some fox news producer watching
00:11:08.480 this right now but uh whoever it is who's in charge of that chyron good job from an entertainment
00:11:16.300 perspective it was a good job so here's the second part of that story so after i saw this uh and it
00:11:24.180 was you know brian stelter from cnn talking about fox news and how they cover stuff i tweeted that 20
00:11:30.400 of all news involves people in the news business criticizing each other now when i said 20 that
00:11:40.040 wasn't to be taken as an actual estimate right it's just that it seems like they spend a lot of time
00:11:46.320 criticizing the other channel if you turn on fox news they're talking about cnn you turn on cnn
00:11:52.280 they're talking about fox news and so uh so so i tweeted 20 of it is just that and within a few minutes
00:12:02.480 brian stelter tweeted back uh at me and he said uh no it does not or i don't know he tweeted not
00:12:10.920 necessarily at me uh and here's the thing when i'm using social media
00:12:18.920 i forget sometimes especially if it's somebody famous who's you know like brian stelter somebody
00:12:27.660 you know i forget that they actually read it like somehow somehow my brain can't
00:12:35.200 it can't handle the fact that i'm typing you know using a tool which of course the whole point of it is
00:12:42.260 people are reading it and i still can't i can't get it in my head that when i type
00:12:48.860 a response to somebody famous they'll actually read it it still blows me away and so when he when
00:12:55.520 he tweeted back i was thinking oh we actually read that
00:12:59.260 and
00:13:01.600 and um
00:13:03.280 and i i understand when i do it why people are so mean and ugly to me because every now and then
00:13:14.060 i'll respond back to some troll who just said something awful about me and uh and and sometimes
00:13:20.720 they'll say something like whoa whoa i didn't think you'd read it
00:13:23.120 so
00:13:25.300 uh just remember there are real people reading this stuff
00:13:29.160 uh
00:13:31.220 jack basabic reports that he's hearing from his uh multiple insider sources at the white house
00:13:38.600 that uh kamala harris is getting the full uh the pdb what is that daily the um it's the briefing
00:13:47.880 what does the pd stand for daily briefing presidential daily briefing i'm going to go with
00:13:53.840 let's let's say that i'm going to say presidential daily briefing but uh kamala harris is getting the
00:14:00.880 full full one uh which even we think that even biden didn't get that when he was vice president
00:14:07.540 now getting back to my earlier comments about how democrats are going to have to come to terms with
00:14:15.020 the fact that they elected somebody who quite clearly is not medically fully available if you
00:14:22.200 know what i mean and every time there's this little bit of you know the cats on the roof
00:14:26.860 it seems like it's going forever isn't it like how long have we seen these cats on the roof like
00:14:32.880 well it's a little bit of a hint that they're not expecting him to last that long even biden says
00:14:38.480 stuff like he's not going to run for a second term etc so it's just funny every every time you see
00:14:46.340 another another piece of evidence that it's clearly the plan to put her in place uh you just got to
00:14:53.500 wonder what they're thinking so i hear that comedians are having a hard time mocking biden
00:14:59.540 because they don't have anything to grab onto you know trump was easy he had just a million targets
00:15:06.840 that you could shoot at but biden is super boring and if you were to ask people what's the one
00:15:14.000 sort of i don't know personality thing that stands out or or what do you think of when you think of joe
00:15:21.520 biden what's the what's the top thing that comes to mind it's medical it's medical right his his
00:15:29.460 mental capacity and it's not really super cool to make humor about people's medical conditions
00:15:38.220 now i would think a president's a little bit of an exception to that because sometimes you have to
00:15:43.540 mock things to get them fixed and maybe having a president who's not quite all there needs to get
00:15:49.520 fixed so he's a special case but isn't it interesting that he's so bland the only thing you could mock
00:15:59.720 you don't because it's real if don't you think that they would be mocking biden uh if they thought
00:16:08.840 that wasn't real don't you think they'd be there would be more people on the even on the left who
00:16:15.380 would take a run at it it's like oh he's dumb ha ha ha you know ha ha ha he's not as fast as he used
00:16:22.060 to be ha ha ha he does some gaffs but they don't really do that do they they don't really do that
00:16:29.580 somebody says they mocked uh reagan um was reagan ever this bad you know i'm trying to remember
00:16:38.680 yeah i think you could certainly detect there was something going on with reagan i don't think
00:16:43.660 reagan was ever like this was he maybe i just don't remember it clearly all right so i watched
00:16:51.560 let's talk about biden's speech uh i might surprise you by saying i thought it was pretty good pretty
00:16:58.100 good if i'm if i'm going to be objective which is the only value i have to you is trying to be
00:17:03.940 unbiased if i can i thought his speech was pretty solid meaning that what he was trying to do was
00:17:10.860 project empathy and he gave us some dates which i wanted i wanted to hear a date when he thinks he
00:17:17.720 can get the vaccinations may 1st everybody should have access to it it's good um
00:17:23.840 yeah i'm seeing your comments about whether reagan was as bad a little bit of a disagreement about
00:17:31.380 whether he was he was as bad some say yes some say no so i i don't have a strong memory of that at
00:17:38.400 this point but uh so i'm going to give uh biden uh you know a solid a solid mark it was not exciting
00:17:45.480 i literally started falling asleep toward the end it dragged on it was a little too long
00:17:52.520 you know he's not like a great deliverer of anything but for what the country needed
00:17:58.380 it was pretty solid good information fairly specific now the of course the thing that everybody's
00:18:05.560 mocking uh is the uh i think everyone who watched this had some kind of similar feeling to it
00:18:14.740 when he was saying that by fourth of july he's hoping that people can get together for their fourth
00:18:21.080 of july barbecues and whatnot and that he slipped in but not large groups and i'm sitting here thinking
00:18:29.460 what did you just say and and then he sort of i think he clarified it again you know that you'd be able
00:18:37.300 to have fourth of july but not in a large get together to which i and something like 300 plus million
00:18:46.340 americans or i don't know whatever tens of millions were watching the speech simultaneously said to
00:18:53.140 themselves see see if this happened in your head did you simultaneously all over the country say to
00:19:00.740 yourself fuck you fuck you here's what's going to happen on july 4th i and every one of you are going
00:19:12.220 to make your own fucking mind up about what you're going to do and the government's instructions to you
00:19:17.860 by july 4th because by then it's it's a different situation we hope by july 4th it's not the government's
00:19:25.860 decision and even their suggestion will be taken as a suggestion all right by july people are going to
00:19:36.780 do any fucking thing they want and i don't think there's any any way around that now a lot of people
00:19:43.920 will want to play it safe a lot of people will want to do what the government suggests because
00:19:49.360 they want to that's fine but there was something about the way he presented it that carried with it
00:19:58.480 a whiff of presumption that the government can tell you how to uh celebrate the fourth of july
00:20:06.460 in your own fucking backyard and that didn't go down well did it how'd that feel didn't feel good
00:20:16.340 didn't feel good and and i've been quite supportive of the government having some you know a big hand
00:20:24.440 in the pandemic i think sometimes the government needs to be the the one with a big hand or a big
00:20:30.040 footprint i guess uh but that would be too far right there's a point where everybody says it's too
00:20:36.200 far and i think biden reached that so that's not the biggest problem in the world the the other
00:20:41.080 thing about his speech is that there's a lot of darkness and gloom and it was kind of long and
00:20:45.780 boring and low energy but uh it got the job done um here's a question i have for you if you believe
00:20:53.640 that biden is doing a good job with pandemic management and i would say he is does anybody disagree
00:21:01.520 with that is there any disagreement that biden is the administration is doing a solid job with the
00:21:08.880 uh i i i would fault him with school openings he should put more pressure on the teachers unions
00:21:15.020 that's a big deal but i feel like i feel like it's you know happening like people are going back to
00:21:21.160 school already vaccinations are looking pretty solid messaging looks pretty good i think he's solid
00:21:27.360 but here's the question what is it that biden has done that the trump administration would not have
00:21:35.220 you know predictably done so for example under under biden the rate of vaccinations is way up
00:21:42.640 well don't you think that would have happened under trump as well because we know that however it starts
00:21:49.000 is going to be slow compared to you know how quickly it will ramp up so i don't see any reason that
00:21:55.120 we should assume biden did a better job i don't see any evidence for that and in fact trump might
00:22:00.900 have put more pressure on teachers unions although that could have been counterproductive
00:22:05.320 you could make an argument that if trump had gone harder at teachers unions they would have just
00:22:12.040 hardened their their stand against him so it's hard to predict but i don't think there's any reason
00:22:17.620 to think biden did a better job than trump would have if he had been in office
00:22:21.480 um i tweeted yesterday something that i knew would get uh get people angry or bothered
00:22:29.360 but there wouldn't be a reason which is my favorite kind of tweet where people would feel like they
00:22:37.480 should be offended on behalf of somebody else they're not sure who and they're not sure exactly why
00:22:44.620 but they're definitely offended if they could only figure out why
00:22:49.780 and here was my tweet
00:22:53.020 um
00:22:54.800 i i said that uh if i were the uh if i were the attorney defending uh derek chauvin the uh
00:23:04.540 officer who's charged with uh now i guess second or third degree murder one of those murders
00:23:09.680 i would say that i would deliver my closing argument laying on the ground if i were the lawyer
00:23:16.380 laying on the ground and i would have my client put his knee on my neck
00:23:21.420 much the way he did with george floyd and for the entire nine minutes i would time it so it was the
00:23:28.660 same amount of time as as uh floyd was held down as the lawyer i would just speak normally
00:23:34.680 and i would just have the you know i'd be on the ground with the the officers now not officer but
00:23:42.300 ex-officers knee on my neck and i would say all right we've presented all the evidence and as you
00:23:48.680 can see you know there's uh plenty of uh reasonable doubt the main reason that you uh and the world was
00:23:55.500 so concerned is that the visual of this is just deeply disturbing but as you can see the reason that
00:24:02.360 this is a legal hold and it's trained and the officers are trained this way is that if you do
00:24:07.960 it right it doesn't put much pressure on the neck and as you can see i'm delivering my closing arguments
00:24:13.240 uh completely uh without any air restricted and yet i can't move i can't get up can't get up now
00:24:21.720 uh do you think people complained about that tweet oh yeah you always get this guy do you know who
00:24:33.240 this guy is he's the he's the guy it's usually a guy it's usually a guy right could be a woman
00:24:42.040 i don't want to be sexist but it's usually a guy who comes in and says something like this
00:24:49.720 a man died
00:24:52.760 you're laughing and a man died this is not a joke you always need that guy right the guy to remind us
00:25:08.960 that there was a tragedy is there anything that is more well understood than whatever the whatever
00:25:17.000 that was it was a tragedy is there anybody who doesn't know that and here's the second part
00:25:26.520 it wasn't a joke if you laughed on it if you laughed at it well that's sort of on you
00:25:34.200 because it wasn't written as a joke it was written as a persuasion now of course i don't assume
00:25:43.560 that the lawyer would do anything like that in order to do that you need a certain kind of personality
00:25:49.720 let's say johnny cochran if johnny cochran cochran were alive and he heard that idea
00:25:58.280 what do you think if johnny cochran heard that idea and he were the defense attorney just lay on the
00:26:07.560 ground put the knee on you and do your closing argument just like that he would at least consider
00:26:14.280 it now he might say no that's too far or whatever because you know clearly he was the highest level
00:26:20.520 of defense attorney so he might say that's a bad idea for good reasons but i think he'd at least
00:26:26.840 consider it i think he'd consider it i i feel as if he would give it a good thought and here's the
00:26:34.360 thing there is nothing disrespectful about that nothing it's not even a little bit disrespectful
00:26:41.800 it's persuasive i mean if it worked right now here i'm making a big assumption that i think is fair
00:26:49.320 which is that if somebody has their is holding you down with that knee hold on your neck they probably
00:26:55.240 have a lot of leeway in terms of how painful or damaging that is and i don't think you can tell
00:27:02.520 just by looking at it on the video i don't think you could tell so it would be a it would be i don't
00:27:08.120 know how they could possibly convict let me ask you this if you saw that closing argument and you
00:27:15.400 watched it for nine minutes and you watched the lawyer talk normally could you convict because that
00:27:21.800 that removes all the reasonable doubt i mean it's just gone at that point
00:27:25.400 i would have done it all right there's a study and of israel israel's in the news a lot
00:27:35.400 that they think aspirin may protect against covid they thought you know there's some evidence it does
00:27:42.120 um andres beckhouse commented on that to point out is a low quality study and uh i wouldn't start
00:27:51.160 taking aspirin because number one you know i i usually tell you don't get your medical advice
00:27:58.440 from me but i'm actually going to give you medical advice right now don't start taking aspirin unless
00:28:05.160 you talk to your doctor i feel that safe right it feels like that's safe medical advice um i used to
00:28:11.640 take a baby aspirin every day because for i don't know decades i believe that the science said
00:28:18.920 that it would protect you against uh strokes or heart attacks or something and so i'd take my
00:28:24.280 little baby aspirin every single day the new science or at least the latest thinking is there's
00:28:30.760 no indication whatsoever that the aspirin is going to protect you from any of that stuff
00:28:36.120 and it might have some negative effects because aspirin is not exactly harmless
00:28:40.680 um so i wouldn't trust anything about an aspirin study just in general but not that one um here's
00:28:52.440 an interesting thing to watch i've been asking the question who is the the conservative voice now
00:29:00.760 because trump himself is sort of uh at the moment a little bit off the stage
00:29:05.400 uh coincidentally uh rush limbaugh passed you would think of him as maybe the dominant voice
00:29:13.800 in conservative politics so now the the two most dominant voices are out of the game
00:29:20.280 and i was watching as a um tucker carlson show came on immediately after the biden speech
00:29:27.320 and there's there's an interesting phenomenon you have to experience and maybe you did you probably
00:29:34.360 did which is you watch the event yourself so you're watching the biden speech or any any other event
00:29:41.080 and then you're forming an opinion and you're thinking oh i think this about it or that about it
00:29:46.840 and then you see somebody like tucker carlson give you a very strong opinion and a take if you will
00:29:55.320 how quickly does your sort of generic forming opinion start to match identically to tucker carlson's
00:30:04.920 opinion because it's the first thing you heard while you are still trying to form your opinion
00:30:10.840 and he is so certain when he speaks it's one of the things he does well he speaks with a kind of
00:30:16.440 certainty that is very persuasive i felt you know i've told you before that we don't make up our own
00:30:23.000 opinions on politics you think you do but you don't now i'm not saying that's a hundred percent
00:30:30.600 true but it's close enough to a hundred percent true that you could treat it that way meaning that
00:30:35.960 whether you're on the left or the right if you were to look at your political opinion on any topic
00:30:42.600 you will be amazed and surprised that it matches whoever you watch on tv the most
00:30:47.640 most of the time it just matches who you watch on tv and it's because your opinion was assigned to you
00:30:55.240 the people who are good at expressing things they express an opinion and then you just adopt it
00:31:00.920 it's like oh that's a good way to think about it that's my opinion now but watching tucker carlson assign
00:31:07.480 opinions to fox news viewers in real time was sort of mind-blowing and i watched that happen last night
00:31:15.480 because i i wanted to see i was sort of monitoring my own opinion to see when it got formed
00:31:22.600 to yeah because i was i was feeling oh that's a sort of a boring good biden speech you know he didn't
00:31:29.640 hurt anybody didn't hurt himself got the job done and then as soon as i turned on tucker it's a it's a
00:31:37.400 you know it's a dumpster fire and what he said about fourth of july is crazy you know i agree with
00:31:42.120 them of course on the fourth of july stuff um but the other thing is that as somebody's saying in
00:31:50.600 the comments part of what makes tucker so powerful is not just that other voices got decreased which is
00:31:57.480 a big deal but that he's really good like really really good at his job and he seems to be getting
00:32:06.680 better and at at his current age you know i'm not sure you'd expect his quality of production to just
00:32:14.920 keep getting better but it is right in front of your eyes i i think he's unquestionably at his highest
00:32:22.520 level of uh quality as well as importance you know his impact on the country so i feel as if he he just
00:32:33.160 became the guy i feel as if you know if you've been looking for who's the the voice of the conservatives
00:32:41.560 it feels like it's him it feels like it now not to say there aren't other voices but he does seem to
00:32:49.080 have emerged as the the prime voice um over in portland i guess there have been nightly protests and
00:32:57.720 stuff for almost a year now um and there i read that some portland business owners are boarding up
00:33:05.960 their businesses because they're expecting more trouble from everything from the george floyd stuff
00:33:11.080 to who knows what and i thought to myself there are still businesses in portland why would you stay in
00:33:19.240 portland if if there were protests for a year i don't know it seems like that would be long enough to
00:33:26.200 make other plans but it's hard to move a business i know but i can't believe there are any businesses
00:33:32.280 left um here's another compliment to the biden administration you didn't see this coming
00:33:39.720 pete budigieg as the transportation secretary is a really good choice he's a really good choice i don't
00:33:48.680 know if you you remember but budigieg's background is uh as a business consultant i mean that was his
00:33:56.120 first role and you don't get the was it bain i think you worked for but you don't get that kind
00:34:01.880 of a job unless you're just crackling smart and you just came out of harvard usually as he did but the
00:34:08.760 the thing that makes this perfect is that it's a purely um it's an analytical job oh mckinsey somebody's
00:34:17.320 saying it was mckinsey that's right so he was a mckinsey consultant but he has exactly the right skill
00:34:23.720 set exactly the right skill set for uh transportation and infrastructure because those are things that
00:34:30.600 people sort of are more likely to agree on right we're a little bit closer on the need for an
00:34:36.600 infrastructure package package than we are for probably almost anything else he's perfect so you
00:34:44.360 know i'm going to give the biden administration a an a plus on that appointment we'll see if he delivers
00:34:50.920 right still has to deliver but that's a perfect fit of of training and competence with job um you're
00:35:00.600 the astrazeneca's vaccination some people thought it might cause blood clots but now they've looked
00:35:07.240 at the data and they say nope no blood clots so that story about the vaccinations being a problem
00:35:13.960 is fake news as far as we know um there's still a lot of concern that people will not get the
00:35:20.920 vaccinations because they're afraid of it or uh mostly they're afraid of it and i'm going to predict
00:35:30.280 that in the end that won't be a problem my uh prediction slash observation is that um because supply
00:35:40.440 is limited that people's willingness to get the shot is going to match the supply all the way to the
00:35:46.760 end meaning that um you'll get enough people vaccinated to get to wherever we need to get
00:35:55.560 people like me are quietly saying they're skeptical until the last minute you should stay skeptical
00:36:04.440 until you have a chance to get the shot and then take all the information that you have up to that
00:36:09.240 point and make your decision but you don't need to make a decision until the shot's available something
00:36:16.040 tells me that a lot of the people who are sort of talking about not getting the shot when they really
00:36:22.360 really think it through and when they watch how many people have gotten the shot and it doesn't
00:36:27.720 they haven't heard that many stories of bad outcomes i feel as if um a lot of people are
00:36:34.200 going to get the shot i think we'll get as many as we need i think we'll be fine there
00:36:41.560 um here's my math question for you and i asked this this morning uh i got a number of answers and i'm
00:36:50.520 still not sure of my opinion on it so help me form an opinion on it it goes like this if we had
00:36:56.520 a normal virus that affected everybody about the same way every age group then we're told that
00:37:05.240 getting to 60 70 percent herd immunity with vaccinations or prior infections that getting
00:37:12.840 there would be enough to stop the stop the spread but what if you've got a weird virus that has a special
00:37:21.960 characteristic that attacks let's say 20 of the population aggressively and 80 of the population
00:37:29.960 hardly bothers them at all what happens if you can vaccinate almost all of that 20 percent
00:37:39.880 well it won't stop the infection from spreading through the other 80 percent of course and that other
00:37:47.000 80 percent if they came in contact with the few people who didn't have it yet in that in the high
00:37:53.320 risk group then those people could get it and die so well here's the question i'm just trying to
00:38:01.240 think the the the logical math of it through i do understand there's something uh andres backhouse
00:38:09.640 said this morning on twitter that the rate of infection where it's been studied seems to be
00:38:15.560 fairly similar with every age group i didn't know that till this morning so you can get infected at
00:38:23.240 every age group which suggests that my idea doesn't make sense that if if everybody's getting infected it's
00:38:30.680 at least in that one sense it's like every other virus it's just the outcomes are different not the
00:38:36.440 infection rate so but i haven't given up yet i feel as if just to help me think this through because i
00:38:46.840 really there's too many variables here to quite grasp it but my my gut level uh statistical intuition
00:38:58.920 which is very unreliable tells me that if you vaccinate let's say 80 of the high risk people
00:39:07.720 they tend to hang out with themselves don't they senior citizens are far more likely to have you know
00:39:13.960 extended uh contact with other senior citizens they do have family contacts etc but and then kids mostly
00:39:22.440 hanging around with kids and under that scenario couldn't you uh not have herd immunity in the classic
00:39:31.240 sense where the virus just stops but in a functional sense where once you've got the high risk people
00:39:38.360 done and the low risk people are still getting infected but you don't care because they're not getting any
00:39:44.600 bad outcomes don't you sort of reach something that's like a virtual herd effect except plenty
00:39:53.240 of people are still getting infected it's just they're not dying so when we talk about herd immunity
00:40:00.280 from a regular virus we're talking about the virus just stopping it just can't spread it just stops but
00:40:06.920 maybe when we talk about herd immunity for this one what we should really be talking about is bringing the
00:40:12.600 rate of risk down to whatever is a baseline normal risk of life and i feel like we're going to hit that
00:40:21.160 really soon that's that's my uh statistical slash math intuition that we're going to hit it really soon
00:40:33.000 like way before may i'm thinking i'm thinking april
00:40:38.280 uh hospitalizations will be almost nothing um but the spread will still be widespread because the
00:40:47.960 kids will still be giving it to kids etc just won't we won't know about it so i am not convinced that
00:40:55.480 i'm right there and i'll let me make another point about your skill stacks when i when i advise you to add
00:41:02.760 uh additional talents to what you already have to make your stack of talents your talent stack is i
00:41:08.920 like to say is special statistics is one of those things you should have on there now i've taken a
00:41:14.920 course in statistics and in college but it was a million years ago i don't remember a lot of the math
00:41:21.000 but you you can develop let's say a statistical intuition about things you can get to the point where
00:41:27.480 you could look at say this aspirin study and say oh the number of people studied was small the way
00:41:34.360 they studied it is not as as good statistically so you would just have an intuition that you shouldn't
00:41:40.120 trust it necessarily and i think that's a really good thing to develop and you don't need to do all the
00:41:46.920 math to do it just spend enough time looking at the illusions of statistics the things that you
00:41:55.080 thought would be true but turned out if you do the math are not true every time you're fooled by
00:42:00.840 statistics make a little note say oh yeah that's one of those situations where it looks like it could
00:42:06.680 be the case but if you do the math it's opposite so develop try to develop some kind of like intuition
00:42:13.880 about where things are credible and where they're not independent of having the math
00:42:19.160 uh here's my most controversial uh idea of the day we know that china is sending fentanyl to the cartels
00:42:31.240 and the cartels are packaging it up in in other in drugs that look like other kinds of drugs such as
00:42:37.240 fake xanax shipping it to the united states and 50 to 70 thousand americans per year are dying from this
00:42:45.000 uh we believe that china is pursuing this you know total war idea where it is completely intentional and
00:42:55.400 they could obviously stop it because we've actually told them the name of the person in china who's sending
00:43:00.280 the fentanyl we know the name it's this guy china of course can find that guy right so there's no question
00:43:10.280 about those two facts we've told them who it is who's the you know the fentanyl kingpin in china
00:43:18.120 china knows where he is they could stop him does anybody doubt that they could stop that guy no of
00:43:25.000 course not so we have to assume it's intentional and that they are killing 50 to 70 thousand americans
00:43:31.160 per year intentionally as a plan now that's war isn't it but given the nature of all the obstacles
00:43:44.040 and variables in the world we can't just sort of attack china militarily we just do this weird thing
00:43:50.280 where we demand that they stop and then they just don't because they don't have to apparently there's no
00:43:55.800 penalty so to me it seems that mexico and the cartels are a combined allied military force
00:44:07.800 in a war with the united states now we can't attack china because they have nukes and stuff but we can
00:44:17.160 certainly attack their ally who holds territory and their allies hold the the border territory if you
00:44:25.640 didn't know this the cartels actually are the government on the border literally they're the
00:44:32.040 government the actual government wouldn't even be they'd be too afraid to even go there because they
00:44:38.280 would kill the actual government they're just not allowed so for all practical purposes mexico is not
00:44:45.480 even on our border we don't have a mexican border but i'd like one let's see if we can get one
00:44:53.000 so the way to get a mexican border for the first time is to get rid of this small uh let's say
00:45:01.400 unlabeled country owned by the cartels different cartels but they have different parts of it right
00:45:07.720 and i think that we should at least consider um annexing that territory that mexico doesn't control
00:45:16.120 now you would say to yourself whoa whoa you've gone way too far the government of mexico is never going
00:45:24.840 to allow you to annex part of that territory to which i say wouldn't that be great wouldn't it be
00:45:32.920 great if mexico surged their uh government military into that area to protect it from the united states
00:45:40.520 annexing it that'd be fine then we don't have to annex it because if the mexican military tried to
00:45:48.840 defend it they would move their military into that zone and that's all we wanted in the first place
00:45:55.640 we want mexico to be on our border so if mexico wants to be on our border
00:46:01.960 will help but of course the the real mexican government is afraid of the cartel as they should
00:46:09.480 be so they they can't really do that so what would they do if we just annexed it just took it and said
00:46:19.000 we're not taking it from mexico mexico doesn't own it and here's the best part if mexico wants it back
00:46:27.480 they can have it just ask all you have to do is control it just move your military in control the
00:46:36.920 border we'll give it right back to you you can have it back but if you don't want to do that
00:46:44.840 it's not mexico and it's not the united states it's china and i don't want a border with china
00:46:51.880 and right now we have one they happen to be the cartel working with china but for all practical
00:46:58.200 purposes we just got ourselves a border with china and they are invading and attacking over
00:47:07.080 the border so i would treat it like a chinese military exercise and when mexico complains you say
00:47:13.640 oh i hear you what you're saying but it's not really about us this isn't about the united states
00:47:19.400 in mexico we don't have any complaints with mexico at all not the mexican government we have a
00:47:26.680 complaint with china who is working with this cartel these cartels who own this territory this has nothing
00:47:32.840 to do with you but if you would like it to be about you we would like that too you could join us but
00:47:40.440 until then it's it's war with china and we'll just treat it that way
00:47:44.360 in the comments somebody says this idea is so crazy it could work let me tell you about uh so
00:47:53.080 crazy it could work that's exactly right it's exactly right the the idea is not so much that you would
00:48:01.400 actually annex it but you would change the frame you would reframe the situation from uh an immigration
00:48:09.880 problem a drug problem a crime problem because that's not getting us anywhere is it the way we
00:48:17.720 we currently frame and think about the border is giving us nothing but worse problems if you reframe
00:48:24.120 how you think about it that opens up options you don't necessarily know where that ends up it could
00:48:30.280 end up with mexico just defending their own border better that'd be fine but the reframe just gets you
00:48:36.760 out of the broken and bankrupt uh way of thinking the bankrupt way of thinking is that we have a
00:48:44.760 crime immigration problem at the border that's just not what's going on what's going on is that china
00:48:51.320 is attacking the united states right now successfully and we're not defending against an attack by china
00:48:58.600 mexico mexico you're just not part of the question i wish you were honestly i wish you were part of the
00:49:08.360 question but you're not the cartels are all right um here's uh the most uh this will just make your head
00:49:20.680 spin for a while i believe there's another sexual category and i'm just going to put this out there
00:49:31.400 and then you won't you won't accept this at first but wait till you look into it okay some of you will
00:49:39.640 be able to go home immediately and ask somebody for confirmation most of you won't but watch watch what
00:49:46.920 happens when you do if you said to a uh let's say a teenage girl in the united states in 2021 so it's
00:49:57.080 just a your average teenage girl and you say that teenage girl what is your uh your orientation
00:50:05.320 they'll tell you they'll say uh i'm either straight or i'm gay or um uh or i'm bi
00:50:11.880 and they'll and they'll tell you just right now so at least in today's world uh i don't see
00:50:20.520 at least nothing like it used to be in terms of anybody saying that they're gay or they're lesbian
00:50:26.680 or anything else so the first thing that would be eye-opening is that a teenager today is far more
00:50:34.200 likely to just you know be completely open about what their sexuality is here's the shocking part
00:50:44.760 ask a uh ask a girl who identifies as heterosexual not bisexual they have to identify as heterosexual and
00:50:54.360 then ask this question would you ever marry a woman
00:51:02.920 there was a time if you asked somebody who identified as heterosexual would you ever marry
00:51:08.920 somebody of the same gender they would have said well no what do you think heterosexual means
00:51:15.240 that's the whole point of heterosexual is no i'm i'm interested in the other gender
00:51:20.280 not today if you if you ask a teenage girl today would are you heterosexual she says yes totally
00:51:29.960 heterosexual i'm not bi at all but would you marry a woman if you fell in love they will say yes
00:51:38.200 and won't even blink at it it's it's kind of interesting it's it's neither good nor bad i'm not
00:51:44.760 putting any kind of judgment on it it's just a uh an evolution that's uh sort of fascinating to watch
00:51:53.720 um now i don't think that men would answer the same i don't think a teenage boy who identified as
00:52:00.920 heterosexual if you asked would you ever marry another man probably would say no you know in 2021
00:52:07.720 still probably not everyone but more more often uh somebody's asking the question what would happen
00:52:16.200 if you asked a let's say a teenage white girl if she would marry a black person i've i've heard
00:52:25.320 teenagers discussing that very question and 100 of them said yes and there were more people who say
00:52:31.320 they prefer it in fact several said they prefer it but i've never heard anybody in uh in the modern era
00:52:41.320 say that they wouldn't i haven't heard it so i don't think there's anybody at least maybe this is a
00:52:48.600 california thing so it could be really different where you live california tends to be five to ten years
00:52:54.440 ahead of some of these things um somebody says would you stay with a spouse who changes their gender
00:53:05.480 i think it depends it depends right there's no there's no one answer to that that would depend on the
00:53:11.800 two people uh when are you in the company of teenagers well i don't hang with teenagers but uh let's say
00:53:20.040 if you have a a family situation you're exposed to them whether you like it or not so the the answer
00:53:28.440 is through family connections um but i'm not talking about anybody in my family i'm talking about a general
00:53:40.040 statement
00:53:44.360 if you ask a personal question to a group you'll get a peer answer yeah yeah
00:53:49.800 i think so
00:53:56.040 um yeah just looking at your comments okay well i didn't know if that would be surprising to many
00:54:00.040 of you or not it's a sign of the times probably a good one good sign of the times because the uh
00:54:07.400 the teens the teens are definitely woke there's no doubt about that and uh that's not all bad all
00:54:16.360 right that's all for now and i'll talk to you later
00:54:24.920 all right
00:54:29.080 your teens are not woke
00:54:30.280 all right
00:54:34.120 all right that's all for now i will uh talk to you tomorrow too
00:54:36.840 you
00:54:54.280 you
00:54:54.520 you
00:54:54.840 you
00:54:54.860 you
00:54:55.000 you
00:54:56.060 you
00:54:58.480 you
00:54:58.580 you