Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1341 Scott Adams： Test Your Predictions, My Problem With Vaccinations and Passports, Reparations, and Coffee

00:00:00.000 yes it is coffee time that is correct yes somebody says i always see is in trouble

00:00:12.000 well i didn't see that story yet hey how would you like to enjoy today like a lot

00:00:17.700 all you need is a simultaneous sip because that makes everything better and all you need is a

00:00:23.800 cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein a canteen jerk or flask or pestle of any

00:00:27.860 kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled

00:00:35.580 pleasure of the dopamine to the day the thing makes everything better and you don't need a

00:00:40.460 passport for this it's called the simultaneous sip but it happens now go

00:00:43.860 now i'm not going to tell you that drinking coffee will protect you from the coronavirus

00:00:57.220 but i've been drinking coffee every day and no coronavirus yet so that's the thing i call

00:01:06.940 science you should always get your science from youtube live streams with cartoonists

00:01:13.740 well let's talk about all the things fun story today from joel pollack in breitbart and

00:01:22.420 interestingly i don't know what other publications will carry this story it seems that one of the

00:01:28.940 co-founders of black lives matter patrice con colors has bought four homes since 2016 i think she still

00:01:39.660 owns all four now here's my take on that there are two ways you could look at this one way would be

00:01:50.100 hey i think this black lives matter organization has some possibly possibly some questions to answer

00:01:58.980 about where the money is going because i don't know exactly what other sources of income she has but 1.00

00:02:06.180 she might she might be uh you know get uh money for public speaking maybe she has a book deal 1.00

00:02:12.580 i don't know i i would feel like if you were a co-founder of black lives matter you could get a book deal if

00:02:19.540 you wanted one so we don't know where our money comes from but the interesting thing is what if it came

00:02:25.920 from donations to the organization because i kind of want that to be true and not because i want a crime

00:02:33.840 to be committed and not because i want any you know the organization to be less credible but only

00:02:42.120 because it would be reparations and it would be funny i think it would be hilarious because where does most of

00:02:49.960 the money come from that backs black lives matter does most of the money come from donations from

00:02:57.040 poor black people i don't know but probably not most i would think that most of the money that goes to

00:03:04.380 back of the black lives matter organization probably came from white people mostly right big big groups

00:03:13.100 billionaires people wanted to donate money so what i see is a story in which a bunch of white people

00:03:19.700 gave some money to a founder of uh or at least the black lives matter and one of the founders is

00:03:26.500 living really well it looks like

00:03:28.040 so i don't care about any of this do you do you really care if a bunch of white people donated money

00:03:39.760 and allegedly potentially i have no evidence to prove it that this is the case but people suspect that

00:03:47.460 maybe some of that white money went to supporting a black woman's uh uh comfortable lifestyle 1.00

00:03:54.260 which to me i don't even care do you care

00:03:58.620 to me it's just funny but we have not ruled out let me say this carefully she may have made the money 1.00

00:04:09.400 in perfectly you know legal other activities because she would have the option to do that i mean she seems 1.00

00:04:15.300 to be a pretty high functioning human being so if she started black lives better she probably also knows 1.00

00:04:21.900 how to make money it is a little odd that she's calls herself a trained marxist and might own more

00:04:28.460 real estate than 99 of the world but she's allowed she lives in the system that allows it 1.00

00:04:37.300 so if she's playing the system and winning to me it's just funny um

00:04:44.520 the the george floyd trial uh and the whole situation if you will may have almost got somebody

00:04:55.600 killed unrelated to the whole george floyd thing uh and you probably saw the story story army lieutenant

00:05:03.000 nazario who is reportedly part black plat part hispanic was driving his new car home and he was

00:05:10.720 pulled over and he was afraid to get out of the car so if you saw the video it looks like a person who's

00:05:19.900 quite justifiably afraid the police are going to murder him even if he cooperates so his hands were out of

00:05:27.540 the car so he was completely you know safe and under control but he made but the little part of the clip

00:05:35.160 i heard he was saying that he was concerned about unbuckling his seat belt because that would require

00:05:41.340 his hands to go down here while a gun is pointed at him was that was he unreasonable to ask that maybe

00:05:50.040 the police could unbuckle him because if he moves his hands out of their view he could get shot was he

00:05:57.880 unreasonable you know in a normal time that would sound unreasonable wouldn't it it would sound

00:06:06.340 unreasonable in normal times but these are not normal times he's presumably watched that video of

00:06:12.380 george floyd as many times as you have and probably thinks that the police are looking for a reason to

00:06:18.780 shoot him is that unreasonable i wish it were i wish that were unreasonable it's just not and this was a

00:06:29.440 military member um when i see police officers treating a member of the military like this it has a whole

00:06:37.920 different you know it takes on a whole bigger meaning um and worse but i but it has to be said

00:06:48.060 that he was also resisting oh i won't say resisting arrest but he was resisting doing exactly what they

00:06:57.740 said but he was still in communication with him still completely safe his hands were out the window

00:07:04.220 clearly the police could handle this better clearly but it has to be said he could have handled it better

00:07:12.260 too now i don't have specific advice for him but i don't believe he handled this right but it wasn't

00:07:19.760 really his job too was it i feel like the police had a little bit more responsibility to manage it so that

00:07:26.620 he could feel safe while they could feel safe they were the experts and they were in control and he was

00:07:34.320 asking them quite clearly give me a way to do this safely and they didn't they only made it scarier the

00:07:42.720 more he asked for safety the scarier they made it the police should be fired immediately you know i don't know

00:07:51.260 if there are any charges that come with this but if those police officers are still working today

00:07:57.500 that's not cool i feel like they should be gone already uh but we have to do something about the fact

00:08:07.700 that you have a person of color who's afraid to even surrender to the police gotta fix that that's a 0.82

00:08:15.700 pretty big problem um the hunter biden laptop story i feel like it's sending all the wrong messages

00:08:25.160 in fact the whole hunter biden story in general because this is what i see so far

00:08:32.820 the hunter biden did excellent drugs and had lots of orgies with uh strippers which sounds fun

00:08:43.980 i mean you know i'm not recommending it i don't think you should necessarily adopt that lifestyle but

00:08:52.180 sounds fun while you're doing it and apparently that's all working out for him

00:08:59.040 i think it's going to work out i'm not sure that's the message we want to send to anybody

00:09:06.440 it's like well if you do that uh you don't even have to remember if you lost the laptop

00:09:12.000 now of course everybody's laughing at the fact that he's actually going on

00:09:15.920 on a legitimate you would think news and uh interview programs and actually getting away

00:09:23.920 with saying he doesn't know if his laptop was taken from him or if he dropped it uh at a place to be

00:09:31.280 fixed and forgot about it how many laptops do you have is there anybody here who has more than say

00:09:41.160 two or that are they're up to date i mean i i have two laptops but one i don't use you know i could

00:09:51.060 imagine you know somebody might steal that one and i wouldn't notice for a week but if somebody asked

00:09:57.560 me hey do you have all of your laptops i think i could figure that out right away i've got two

00:10:03.520 one wait a minute wait a minute i had two yesterday so yes and i see people saying three

00:10:13.720 and four but i'll bet you know where they all are so the fact that he's getting away with that is

00:10:20.660 just hilarious and it tells you the the state of our uh of our news and as others have pointed out

00:10:27.740 it would be easy for the people asking him this question to follow up and say but is the content

00:10:35.360 we've seen real kind of an obvious question you don't know if the laptop is yours but is the content

00:10:45.640 yours which seems more of an appropriate question all right so our news is failing us on that as well

00:10:55.560 as everything else let us test your predictions okay so every time there's a big thing in the news

00:11:02.100 we all make a prediction about how it's going to go so we're going to test a few of your predictions

00:11:06.920 about uh iran during the trump administration and uh this is from a tweet by adele so twitter user adele

00:11:16.940 um and she points out that these are the things people predicted that if a solomon a was eliminated

00:11:25.460 there would be world war three did you think that i did not think that so my prediction was right 1.00

00:11:34.000 if you predicted there would be war because of this well you're wrong um how about when the u.s moved

00:11:41.400 its embassy in israel um that there'll be world war three i predicted that there wouldn't be yeah there'd

00:11:52.180 be trouble but we'd get over it uh if you predicted there would be you were wrong how about when trump

00:11:58.520 designated the uh iranian republican guard as a as a foreign terrorist organization world war three

00:12:08.480 nope hardly even heard about it

00:12:12.260 um none of that happened now as adele points out those same experts who warned against all of those

00:12:22.040 things and were wrong on all those things are giving us some more advice about entering back into the jcpoa

00:12:30.880 so there's your experts so what does it even mean to be an expert anymore i feel as if you can be an

00:12:39.360 expert and just be completely wrong about everything i just don't know what expert means anymore

00:12:45.580 it's losing its value here's a uh interesting hypothesis i'll run this by you and see what you think

00:12:54.760 okay this comes from a twitter user crumb hunger crumb with a k um and he says so this is his

00:13:05.060 hypothesis let's see what you think trump is being used to split the gop in two now which is why he

00:13:13.280 hasn't been arrested hmm can anyone else see the strategy here the democrats are playing 40 chess

00:13:20.380 what do you think and i'm not completely buying that not completely buying that because you know any

00:13:30.620 kind of uh legal action could take a long time uh maybe it's not clear that there's anything to charge

00:13:37.600 him with there could be lots of reasons that there are no charges but one of them but one of them

00:13:45.300 could be that people who are in charge of making the decision to charge or not might not want to do

00:13:53.300 it they might want him to stay around now we know that the democrats have used this exact strategy

00:13:59.300 well exact might be subjective but exact in the sense that we have documents that show the democrats

00:14:07.240 did want the news media to promote trump during the first election because they thought he had the

00:14:13.700 least chance of winning so they were trying to keep him in the public eye because they thought that

00:14:19.440 would be good for them that didn't work out in 2016 but are they doing it again is it possible that

00:14:29.740 having him just sort of twisting around out there with uh legal issues over him is the ideal situation

00:14:37.620 because it splits the republicans i don't think i can rule this out can you i don't think you can rule

00:14:45.880 it out but here's another hypothesis what would happen if trump were arrested

00:14:53.240 for what i don't know as far as i know there are no specific allegations with any kind of evidence

00:15:01.440 that the public's ever seen you know you hear all kinds of you know unsourced references to things

00:15:07.620 but as far as i know i'm not aware of any evidence of a crime are you you we're like allegations and

00:15:15.520 whispers and maybe this and maybe that but any evidence i mean i feel like the public would have heard

00:15:23.440 heard something you know something we haven't already heard before so one possibility is that there never

00:15:31.820 was anything illegal right so there that would certainly explain why he's not being arrested

00:15:38.180 nothing illegal another possibility is can you imagine what trump would do if he had nothing to lose

00:15:51.120 can you imagine that do you know how many things trump knows that the public doesn't know

00:15:59.340 do you know how much he knows about other citizens people he's worked with people who've done things that

00:16:07.460 he knows that you don't know oh my god if trump ever goes down there are going to be a lot of his

00:16:16.300 enemies who go down in the same day or soon after because he's not going to go down alone

00:16:22.160 you know that he's going to take as many of his enemies with him as he can and if i were one of his

00:16:29.340 enemies i would certainly wonder what he knows about me so this is really interesting he might be

00:16:36.040 virtually unarrestable or at least unprosecutable because he's just too dangerous

00:16:42.920 maybe right i'd be pretty worried about what he knows because he wouldn't be shy about telling you

00:16:51.560 if he had nothing to lose remember i told you that there should be something like the turing test

00:16:59.700 except instead of trying to find out if it's a computer or a real person behind the curtain that's

00:17:05.460 talking to you i suggested the dilbert test in which you see if you can tell the difference between

00:17:12.460 reality and parody all right so i'm going to read you a tweet allegedly or am i making this one up

00:17:21.360 is this a real tweet that a real person seriously said or is it just a parody of people like this

00:17:30.000 okay and the tweet went like this

00:17:33.100 white people and men do you ever take a day off from your nonsense wake up and think quote

00:17:42.120 uh i am going to be less toxic today please try it just one day is that something a real person said

00:17:51.220 in public white people and men do you ever take a day off from your nonsense wake up and think

00:17:57.120 i am going to be less toxic toxic today that's a real tweet somebody looked at the world and said

00:18:05.180 this should go over about right oh a little controversial but i think i i think i'm on

00:18:10.880 strong ground with this one this was uh the tweeter is uh sayera rao two names that i find hard to

00:18:20.020 pronounce so i'm just guessing and she's a co-author of a forthcoming book uh called white women everything 1.00

00:18:28.620 you already know about your own racism and how to do better is that a real book it's a real book

00:18:36.720 white women everything you already know about your own racism and how to do better well i'd like to 0.85

00:18:44.140 write a book for sayera rao to uh help her do better she needs a book all right

00:18:53.180 um as you know there are there is some talk of reparations i think the president biden i think he

00:19:03.540 wants uh some kind of a committee to look into options here's what you need to know about the

00:19:09.420 move toward reparations i believe nobody serious is talking about cash payments can we start there

00:19:18.180 as soon as you hear reparations you hear oh no this isn't gonna work because white people are 0.99

00:19:25.260 gonna have to pay money through taxes or whatever uh gonna pay money to black people and why are we 0.74

00:19:31.400 punishing white people who had nothing to do with slavery in most cases yes they benefited but maybe

00:19:37.680 they didn't what about the poor white people what about the black people who were not burdened by

00:19:42.940 slavery what about black people who became rich there's just no way you can do a cash payment 0.63

00:19:47.880 can everybody here start with the agreement that no matter what reparations for slavery could ever look

00:19:57.020 like it's never going to include a direct cash payment and if it did there would be too much

00:20:02.960 resistance so can we all agree that that's off the table before we talk about it would you agree

00:20:09.800 now there's certainly you got the slippery slope i know you're worried about that and i can't say it

00:20:14.720 would never happen i'm just saying it's not worth talking about right because there's nothing to talk

00:20:21.560 about it would be a horrible idea if it happened i know you'd hate it i would hate it i would argue 0.57

00:20:28.580 against it but here's here's the only thing i would like to add to the conversation sometimes

00:20:36.900 because we're we're so uh automatically we go to our teams what does my team think about this issue

00:20:44.660 what does my team think we turn everything into a fight and lots of times that makes sense because

00:20:52.660 you're just on different teams and you want different things and it's kind of a fight a political fight

00:20:56.680 but it's a fight but we we sort of automatically think everything's a fight what if you change

00:21:03.360 your frame and just just for conversation just for the intellectual experience of it you just say to

00:21:11.540 yourself what if it's not a problem or a fight what if it's a puzzle and the puzzle is this how could

00:21:20.060 you do something that would have let's say the effect of reparations the effect being something really

00:21:25.700 good for black americans something that they felt was compensatory in some way toward the legacy of

00:21:33.600 slavery now uh suppose you could do something in which they were happy they the black americans who

00:21:42.360 care about reparations it was something that made them happy at the same time it made uh let's say

00:21:50.400 republicans just keep it simple also happy could you do it is there any way you could come up with a plan that

00:21:58.300 would make those two disparate groups of americans they're all americans right should be something in common

00:22:05.180 but disparate in many ways is there anything that would be called reparations if you're thinking

00:22:12.080 expansively it's not just a payment it's a it's a way of doing things it's a change to the system

00:22:18.020 it's an improvement it's a tweak it's an adjustment of something that would make both sides happy now if

00:22:26.220 you can't make both sides happy can we agree it's not worth doing are you okay with that let's say that

00:22:35.740 the starting point is if it's something that makes black americans happy about reparations

00:22:41.060 but it made let's say poor white americans unhappy because they got whatever they're just unhappy it's

00:22:47.940 not good that's not where we want to go it's got to be both happy or don't do it that's that's the

00:22:53.940 starting point here's my suggestion for a creative way now i'm not saying this is the idea but i'm giving

00:23:00.160 you an example of a creative way to approach this that gets you everything you want for both sides

00:23:05.720 what is it that republicans want more than just about anything lately it's better schools and

00:23:12.280 specifically more competition in schools would you all agree that republicans want school choice

00:23:19.520 school competition they want funding to follow the kid not funding going to school that's going to

00:23:25.900 ruin them and indoctrinate them right republicans want competitive better schools and here's the

00:23:34.000 important part they would open their wallets for it but it's hard to get republicans to simply fund

00:23:40.880 the existing school system when it's not what they want i mean they'll fund it to the minimum

00:23:48.120 but republicans say that's not the system we want you're brainwashing our kids you're getting bad

00:23:55.180 results you're not even helping black americans what are you doing and what's the problem it's the

00:24:01.360 teachers unions right the teachers unions prevent the competition that would allow republicans to be

00:24:07.440 happy with the direction of education now what about black americans what do they care about the most

00:24:14.160 well they would care about racism systemic racism inequality in every way what is the biggest lever you

00:24:22.740 you could push or pull that would make a difference now if we accept that there are a million forms of

00:24:30.660 racism embedded in society and i do i i feel like that's a fair statement meaning that no matter where

00:24:37.540 you are there's a lot of friction to to get anywhere so if where we are keeps a certain group from

00:24:43.300 you know you know uh thriving that's real but what's the biggest thing you could do education if you

00:24:52.660 if you created a situation where every black kid and every kid right just every kid but every black kid 0.76

00:25:00.260 can have a good education you've taken a problem that's this big of racism and you just shrunk it to this

00:25:08.660 big now that last part's really really hard to get rid of but the first part isn't the first part is

00:25:15.140 just make education better so every black kid can get one that's the big thing that's the big lever

00:25:23.460 and republicans agree so could you do reparations by saying we would like to do a grand deal

00:25:31.700 i know we don't agree on stuff but on this we do agree republicans want black americans

00:25:38.420 to have a better education totally want that because they want it for their own kids and you

00:25:44.740 can't really you know what what would be a fair solution where it only goes to one side none right

00:25:50.820 so republicans would like everybody to have equal opportunity and they would like black kids to have

00:25:56.020 better education they'd like their own to have a better education and it's the same process you have

00:26:00.740 to stand up to the teachers unions who are the source of most systemic racism because they don't

00:26:07.620 let you fix the big part the differences in education that's the big part right still lots

00:26:13.700 of little parts not minimizing that they need some work but the big part is education

00:26:21.860 so that's reparations black americans saying we have the political clout because they do to deal with

00:26:29.780 the teachers unions republicans saying we don't have the political clout but we got a lot of money and we

00:26:36.500 can give you our support imagine republicans and black americans saying look let's fight about

00:26:42.580 everything else but we're on the same team on this stuff education and once you realize you're on the

00:26:50.660 same team it's a puzzle it's not a problem it's a puzzle you got all the parts to form the complete

00:27:00.020 picture you have all the parts nothing's missing do we lack money nope we don't we don't lack money for

00:27:09.780 good things we lack money for things that people don't agree on but we could get agreement on this

00:27:17.700 so the larger picture is sometimes your problems are not fights they are puzzles if you see it as a

00:27:26.020 puzzle you've got a chance of fixing it satisfying everybody if you see it as a problem it just stays

00:27:31.380 that way um so that was the least tweeted uh tweet i've ever done i think people hate this idea people

00:27:42.020 absolutely hate me even like giving any oxygen to this idea but i think most of it is because you're

00:27:47.140 thinking of it in terms of a win-lose situation i have no tolerance no tolerance for a win-lose

00:27:55.620 situation but i'm completely optimistic we could figure out how everybody wins this is one of those

00:28:02.420 rare situations where everybody winning is completely accessible you maybe you couldn't do that in every

00:28:08.740 situation but this one you could um we're hearing that the chinese vaccinations suck

00:28:14.820 you might think our vaccinations are bad that would be your opinion but apparently even the chinese 1.00

00:28:21.300 are saying their vaccinations are not very effective and so they're suggesting that they might take

00:28:29.060 some different vaccines that are not effective and maybe just add them together so they've got one

00:28:35.300 super vaccine nothing scary about that take one vaccine that isn't as isn't tested as much as you wish it

00:28:44.500 were mix it with another one that's also not tested as much as you were and then you've got a new

00:28:50.580 vaccine that's made of two things with when you put put them together nothing's been tested because

00:28:57.540 you've never tested them together so that seems like it's going from bad to worse in china

00:29:07.860 and is this what happens when china doesn't have the ability to steal our technology

00:29:12.260 that they can't even make a vaccine so you've got american and european companies you know knocking

00:29:17.220 out vaccines you might not like them but they seem to be more effective and china can't make a vaccine 1.00

00:29:23.860 unless they steal our technology is that what's happening i'm really curious about the apparent lack of

00:29:33.460 innovative entrepreneurial technical ability in china because clearly it's not an education problem

00:29:40.500 it's not a wanting to do it problem but why is it that china doesn't create and invent stuff as good 0.97

00:29:50.260 as america does anybody know why that is is that entirely because their system is bad because you got

00:29:57.060 to think that you know the same the same people who would come to america are probably inventing

00:30:02.180 shit right literally the same family if some members come over here and work in silicon valley

00:30:08.180 suddenly they start inventing good things so it's got to be the system right right or their schools

00:30:16.500 i don't know i just wonder what it is that makes them so uncompetitive in this major way all right

00:30:22.100 let's talk about vaccinations

00:30:25.780 my feelings about vaccinations are do you like this word evolving they're evolving

00:30:34.100 um i'm seeing a lot of people criticizing my opinions on vaccinations while not quite understanding

00:30:41.380 them which is basically twitter right twitter is people being criticized for things that you don't

00:30:47.620 quite understand and you misinterpreted them that's like 80 percent of twitter um but i'll give you my

00:30:53.860 latest updated feelings about vaccinations and passports with a little bit of a change

00:30:59.220 change i would say an update from where i where i had been first thing that uh bothers me is that we

00:31:09.220 have such a different risk profile in this country between let's say older and obese people and younger

00:31:15.540 healthy people that if we all take the vaccination are we all improving our odds because i don't know that

00:31:25.060 that that's been demonstrated by any data has it do we know that young people would um have a better

00:31:33.700 chance of outcomes with the vaccinations even if we do know that the older weaker people do have it suppose 0.99

00:31:41.380 we know for sure that the vaccinations are definitely a good risk for half of the population but what if

00:31:48.420 there's another half of the population where it's not so clear is is the data obvious that is clear that

00:31:56.420 it's good for everybody i don't know that we have that data do we i feel like we've used an average

00:32:03.140 like on average it's good but there's such a wildly different risk profile that i asked myself wait a

00:32:10.900 minute am i in the old old and sick group in which a vaccination i would say would be a good idea 0.96

00:32:18.420 based on what we know today a risk management decision if you are old and weak and the coronavirus

00:32:24.340 was likely to kill you maybe maybe the vaccination makes sense but suppose you're younger and healthy

00:32:31.780 if you take the if you get the vaccination you still can get the coronavirus

00:32:40.020 right you still have to wear the masks you still have to you know do all that stuff

00:32:47.460 um so you're not buying that much and you can still spread it if you have it

00:32:54.420 so the first question is am i in the group that might be worse off with the vaccination

00:33:01.380 and i don't even know if that's true i don't know if there is such a group because our data is so

00:33:06.500 incomplete or am i in the older group because i'm kind of on the bubble because my age don't know it's

00:33:12.900 kind of hard in my case but here's the thing that's that um you know there's always one piece of

00:33:20.900 information that makes the big difference like it just maybe it's just personal or something

00:33:26.260 but here's the piece of information that totally flipped my switch are you ready

00:33:35.380 i don't know if this is different where you are apparently and i need a fact check on this please

00:33:40.100 fact check me apparently i'm not allowed to know which vaccine i'm getting

00:33:46.420 is that is that true in california i think it's true here is that true anywhere else

00:33:50.580 that you're not allowed to know in advance which one you're getting because that's kind of a

00:33:59.060 that feels like a hard no all right i'm sitting wrong i'm looking at your comments here not here

00:34:05.620 oh it's not true there so some of you are told they told you but did they tell you before you showed up

00:34:14.260 did they tell you only once you were in the chair

00:34:20.340 not true in pennsylvania yeah i did read a news report that in california you wouldn't be told

00:34:25.540 which one you're getting i'm saying yeses and nos so i guess there's some uncertainty on this

00:34:32.820 not in texas had to ask yes at the appointment okay so i'm guessing that you learn once you get there

00:34:39.460 but you don't learn when you make the appointment right um and that bothers me that bothers me

00:34:47.300 now i get why they i get why they might want to do that but at this point i don't believe there's

00:34:53.460 any way for me to say i will take the single dose but i won't take the double dose i don't have that

00:34:59.780 option right at least in california but how long would i have to wait until i did have the option

00:35:06.660 because it seems like that would have to be in the future right if you wait another i don't know

00:35:12.340 however long well we get to the point where we have enough supply that i can say okay what kind

00:35:18.580 of vaccine do you have i i don't like that one or i like this one i feel like the the least you should

00:35:25.140 be able to know is before you go which one you're going to get yeah likely summer or fall june maybe

00:35:32.420 something like that so that that's a variable that at least where i am i don't i don't know of any

00:35:38.260 way to find out in advance but maybe where you are you can um now if you get the vaccination you are

00:35:48.180 likely to have uh maybe two days where you have like a flu if you don't get the vaccination and you

00:35:55.460 get the actual coronavirus you're likely to have a few days of the flu maybe longer in both cases

00:36:04.340 you could either die because even vaccinations can kill some people

00:36:10.020 and if you get the coronavirus you might die because the coronavirus kills some percentage of

00:36:15.700 people and in both cases there's a risk but we don't know how much of long-term health problems

00:36:24.100 there's a risk that the vaccine could give you long-term health problems we don't know how much

00:36:29.460 there's a risk that the coronavirus could give you long-term health problems don't know how much

00:36:34.100 there's a risk that if you um if you get the vaccination then you can get a passport and you

00:36:42.900 could go to more places but really do you think that's going to be real so one of the reasons that i'm

00:36:51.540 less concerned about passports than most of you uh i'm going to be i'll be a little anti-passport here

00:36:58.740 in a minute so just calm down calm down i know it looks like nazi germany show your papers blah blah

00:37:06.420 but remember you're already in that world there are very few things you can do without showing your id

00:37:12.580 so you're already in nazi germany you got to show your papers that's not different it's just another

00:37:18.980 thing you'd have to show your papers to so i don't i don't think the argument that you'd have to show

00:37:24.340 your papers is persuasive because it's just already the case you already have to show your id for all

00:37:30.340 kinds of stuff um but should we add to that that's a good question so here's my take on passports i think

00:37:41.300 that uh they can't work so i'm less worried than you are because you think that it could be implemented

00:37:48.740 and it would work um i with my background in business and life and economics believe there's

00:37:56.180 no way it could work and here's why let me give you a concrete example let's say a restaurant

00:38:02.340 decides that you must have a passport to go to the restaurant would that work would it restaurants have

00:38:10.260 really small margins of profit if they were to lose 10 or 20 of their customers it's the difference

00:38:17.300 between profit and no profit if the restaurant next door another italian restaurant because have you

00:38:24.980 ever noticed there's never just one italian restaurant there's not just one chinese restaurant

00:38:31.460 there's always competition so if you're right next to one that doesn't require a mask and let's say you

00:38:36.340 want to go to a dinner and there are four of you three of you got the vaccination one of you just

00:38:43.860 recovered from the actual coronavirus so one of you didn't need a vaccination because you you just

00:38:50.420 recovered you can't go to eat at the vaccination place you've got to go to the competitor so the

00:38:57.140 competitor gets everybody who wants to eat there maybe some people say i'm a little afraid no vaccinations

00:39:03.780 there so they go to the other one but pretty soon i think the ones with the vaccination requirement

00:39:09.860 realize that no foursome can eat there you could get one person you could get a couple to eat there 0.81

00:39:16.900 because lots of times couples get vaccinated around the same time but it'd be hard to get a table of four

00:39:24.260 where all four of them have a vaccination for a while so i think that competition will make it largely

00:39:30.420 difficult for anybody to make this stick now where there is no competition it's a problem let me give you

00:39:38.740 an example you saw the story of the volcano on the island and the cruise ships said they would only

00:39:44.020 take people who were vaccinated and then you said to yourself i told you i told you as soon as it's an

00:39:50.260 option they're going to make sure you have you're vaccinated or you can't do stuff well this is exactly

00:39:56.580 an example of no competition right so remember where there is competition it'll probably be fine

00:40:03.380 because there's competition that fixes just about everything where there's no competition uh oh we

00:40:10.020 only have a few cruise ships but we've got all these people on the island and there's no other way to get

00:40:15.860 them off that's no competition in that case those cruise ships can do anything they want because there's 0.85

00:40:23.540 no competition now apparently it wasn't the ships that required it it was the countries that were they

00:40:29.060 were going to deliver those folks too it was the countries that didn't want them delivered to them

00:40:33.860 that made the cruise ships have that rule i think that'll probably get fixed i think there will be

00:40:40.020 other boats and other destinations and other solutions so i think that everywhere there's no

00:40:44.660 competition probably there's workarounds and where there is competition it kind of takes care of itself

00:40:50.420 and i think that as long as the government doesn't require these passports and so far it looks like

00:40:55.700 they won't because neither neither republicans nor democrats want them um i'm just not that worried

00:41:02.820 of all the things i'm going to worry about today it's kind of toward the bottom really

00:41:08.980 but i don't i don't fault somebody who wants to worry more about it it's just that my experience shows

00:41:14.580 that this this has all the characteristics of something that will fall apart under its own weight

00:41:20.100 right um so there's that um

00:41:31.300 what do you think about the uh the fact that uh reparations are going to go to a committee

00:41:37.300 that's kind of a way to kill them isn't it the the best way to kill anything is to send it to a

00:41:42.660 committee the same thing with court packing and i saw i uh saw some smart people jonathan turley

00:41:49.620 and other people are now agreeing that it's probably it's probably biden's plan to kill a

00:41:55.540 court packing by sending it to committee committee probably won't favor it with enough uh with enough

00:42:02.660 of majority for anything to happen

00:42:04.180 um here's a medical question for you um i am continually bothered by the fact that we don't

00:42:12.980 know how pandemics end because it's not by vaccinations at least historically so that's the

00:42:20.420 biggest unknown and the most important thing if we knew that would maybe we'd act differently and so

00:42:26.820 the question is this um do you will the vaccinations make the virus mutate faster and become dangerous i

00:42:35.380 don't know i mean it sounds scary but who knows and so here's my question is it possible is this a thing

00:42:45.460 to be exposed to trace amounts of the coronavirus not enough to ever get sick and not enough even to be

00:42:53.300 an asymptomatic infected person in other words if they tested you it might not even show up

00:42:59.540 but could you develop uh some some like a little bit of antibodies without ever being in really

00:43:07.300 infected i know you can be infected asymptomatic that's not what i'm talking about can you be exposed

00:43:16.180 and somehow build like this little bit of immunity without ever really actually having it is that a

00:43:26.740 thing because we have this mystery of how a pandemic can ever end you know well before you get to herd

00:43:35.300 immunity some people have some kind of immunity it just has to be now i don't know if that immunity is

00:43:42.420 is genetic could be could be genetic but i feel like maybe especially with this coronavirus where

00:43:52.340 it's everywhere it's in the air do you believe you haven't breathed in any coronavirus

00:43:59.220 because i feel like i must breathe it everywhere i feel like every time i go to the you know grocery

00:44:04.100 store or whatever i feel like there must be a little bit of coronavirus in the air right just a little bit

00:44:12.340 so the question i wonder in my ignorant non-scientific non-medical brain is is there something about

00:44:20.340 it that people can get a little bit of it never know they had it but if they're ever exposed again

00:44:26.340 they're already a little bit ready i don't know uh runs let's see if somebody else has it and so

00:44:34.340 somebody says it takes out the weak but that doesn't quite explain it because the healthy would

00:44:40.580 still be infected they just wouldn't die there's something that makes these otherwise healthy

00:44:47.140 people just invulnerable and i feel like it might be exposure vitamin d levels maybe yeah i'm not sold

00:44:57.380 on the on all that all right uh there was a ted economist talking about climate change in a way

00:45:07.860 that uh only economists can i've told you before that when scientists tell you what the risk of

00:45:14.020 something is trouble is they're not economists scientists are not economists and i'm not saying

00:45:20.820 economists are always right i'm just saying it's a different field and understanding and so this ted

00:45:26.660 economist whose name i forgot to write down um made the following point uh let's say you wanted to go to

00:45:33.620 the steel industry and say steel industry stop uh putting co2 into the air could they do it well it turns

00:45:41.780 out they could do it physically they'd have to like tear down their whole factory and build it completely

00:45:47.300 differently and then they could make steel at uh fairly low co2 production but it might double their cost

00:45:57.860 so can they do it is it economically possible for the the makers of steel which is one big bigger component

00:46:05.940 of climate and co2 could they survive if they had to double their costs seems obviously no right

00:46:17.620 wouldn't every one of you say that they can't really compete they certainly can't compete

00:46:23.060 if they double the cost well here's what you didn't know suppose you went to buy your car

00:46:30.420 how much of the price of the car is steel because there's quite a bit of your car that's steel i think

00:46:36.900 it's like a ton of steel in a typical car it's got to be pretty expensive right well turns out you're wrong

00:46:46.420 that the cost of a car is mostly not parts or at least not raw materials the cost

00:46:52.980 the car is the production the assembly the overhead you know the shipping the sales the the marketing

00:46:59.540 blah blah it turns out that the total material cost of a car is 15 and that's not unusual for other

00:47:08.500 products with steel yeah it's all labor and all the other stuff so if you took a car

00:47:14.580 you say okay only 15 of it is materials and only a portion of that is steel and if you were to double

00:47:24.020 the cost of the small part of your car what would it do to the total cost well a 30 000 or 30 euro

00:47:34.180 30 000 euro car to use this ted talkers example might go up 500

00:47:41.140 but suppose you had an option of buying a car same car one is 500 more than the other but the one

00:47:50.580 that's 500 more say two percent or so of your total cost would be good for the planet and the other one

00:47:58.980 would not yeah you might buy the expensive one it's better for the planet because it's only a little bit

00:48:05.860 more expensive 500 for the price of the whole car you wouldn't even notice so the surprising thing

00:48:12.900 about this is you could tax the piss and the things that are the co2 producers and you'd hardly notice 0.56

00:48:21.940 in other words they could do incredibly expensive things to remediate how much co2 they put out

00:48:28.100 you wouldn't even notice did you know that did you know that so the 15 is all of the components uh

00:48:40.500 that's not just the steel part so the steel part is much less than the 15 now he did say you also have

00:48:47.540 to do the calculation on the other parts because every part creates some co2 but they're not as bad as

00:48:53.380 steel right it's not as bad so uh so the point is we probably do if we if we listen to economists

00:49:05.700 instead of scientists there's probably a fairly obvious way out you just uh put a great burden on

00:49:13.060 the things which are the problems pass the expense along to the public and the public doesn't notice

00:49:19.140 do you buy that they tax it all though co2 is not bad and steel is not bad well co2 is not bad in uh

00:49:33.620 in some quantities but everything's bad in too much of a quantity there's very few exceptions except maybe

00:49:41.060 money that might be the exception all right so i was just looking at your reaction to that to see

00:49:50.100 what you thought okay um

00:49:54.820 here uh here's a little provocative thing so not long ago i made the following statement that

00:50:03.300 people are talking about today which is that all it takes to make a uh a man happy let's say you're

00:50:10.180 you're in a marriage with a man and i said all it takes to make him happy is uh some combination of

00:50:16.660 at least three of the five things respect sex exercise work and food so if you're married to a

00:50:24.260 man and it's within your ability to make sure he gets at least three of those things or at least help

00:50:29.940 him he's probably going to be a fine doesn't have to be the same three every day but gotta get at least

00:50:35.700 three of these three of these things respect sex exercise work or food now it seems to be this is very

00:50:41.860 doable yeah food meaning uh eating with a man helping him you know make a sandwich or whatever i mean you

00:50:51.700 don't have to make the sandwich but if he's got food and it's good food he's going to be kind of happy

00:50:56.180 so these are all very doable things so any any woman could quite easily help make sure a guy gets

00:51:04.580 these things just by making sure the scheduling is good etc but does it work the other way

00:51:12.340 it seems to me that and i want to test this with you all right this is going to be very provocative

00:51:19.700 all right it goes like this if we take the filter that everything we do is some kind of reflection of

00:51:27.140 our mating instinct and then that's a good filter it's very predictive if you just say everything

00:51:33.220 you do is somehow being influenced by your mating instinct you end up explaining the whole world

00:51:39.060 it's a really good way to explain what's happening and it's an even better way to explain what's going

00:51:43.940 to happen next all right so we have a situation in which men appear to want to make their women you 0.89

00:51:54.500 know in your typical hetero relationship i think men want their wives to be happy would you say that's

00:52:01.140 true would you agree with the fact that men want their wives to be happy now if you use the mating

00:52:07.140 filter it makes perfect sense because the man wants to have sex and if the if his potential sex partner

00:52:17.140 is happier he has more chance so the main thing that a man is evolved to do which is have sex 0.64

00:52:25.540 and you know spread his seed that's his main biological impulse and making a woman happy is how he gets

00:52:33.700 there so does he legitimately want a woman to be happy yes unambiguously does it work the other way

00:52:45.940 does the woman have an unambiguous desire to make the man in her life happy

00:52:55.540 i don't think so and i don't think it has anything to do with the character of the woman

00:53:00.500 i think that through the biological filter they just don't have an incentive and indeed keeping a

00:53:09.060 man slightly unhappy so he's continuing to give you resources is probably the optimized situation isn't

00:53:17.060 it because if the man is happy he stops doing stuff well i got everything i need why would i do more

00:53:25.860 why would i bring you flowers if you're already happy why do i need to work harder to make money so

00:53:32.580 that we're more comfortable if you're already happy i would say that being that making a man happy

00:53:40.980 is biologically uh suboptimal

00:53:47.060 and that men to to keep our system working you know the biological part of our system

00:53:53.140 kind of need to be unsatisfied all the time so that we're working for stuff okay we got to work for

00:54:00.580 stuff right and i'm not sure that makes us unhappy because we like to work for stuff we're sort of

00:54:06.420 designed that way but you know you know everybody's different i see uh gene saying untrue not true sandra says

00:54:18.260 i want my man to be happy let me let me add a caveat to that i don't believe there's any woman who thinks 1.00

00:54:25.700 this way would you be okay with that in my opinion no woman would agree with what i said 0.88

00:54:35.300 consciously no woman is going to say yeah i do kind of like it when the man i love is a little bit

00:54:42.180 unhappy i believe nobody believes that so all of you all of you saying i'm seeing most of the women

00:54:48.260 saying that's not true i want my husband to be happy i do believe you believe that i don't believe

00:54:55.220 it's biologically true so i'm not sure that all of your actions are compatible with that many are of

00:55:03.060 course because you're in a relationship so of course you're considering what your partner wants but

00:55:08.900 i feel like there's a difference and that there's a biological reason for it that's somewhat obvious

00:55:15.860 do you buy that let me let me put this as uh just a provocative thought it's not what i'm telling you

00:55:22.580 is true so tomorrow when somebody says scott says this is true you will be lying i'm just saying it's a

00:55:30.740 provocative thought and i was uh i'm not sandra says you're not an anthropologist

00:55:36.580 no i'm not have you ever seen me disagree with experts before i'm just going to say look at my

00:55:45.940 track record of disagreeing with experts and then come back at with come back at me with how i'm not

00:55:52.180 one if my track record were that the experts are always right and i'm always wrong you'd have a good

00:55:59.860 point scott you're not an anthropologist but if it were the opposite you should say to yourself

00:56:06.740 wow it's weird how often you're right despite the experts disagree

00:56:13.220 um somebody's asked me do the lgbtq community do they have other forms of motivation and my guess

00:56:20.180 would be i don't know i mean you know there's nothing that's true for everybody

00:56:26.020 so if you're in the lgbtq community community you're already in a group that's uh i like to choose my

00:56:33.860 words carefully let's say non-majority i don't like to say non-standard because that that implies

00:56:40.020 something but you're in the non-majority and that's there they're always outliers for every situation

00:56:46.500 so i i think i think that you wouldn't make too many assumptions about that group probably it's all over

00:56:51.700 the place um

00:56:58.500 what is this um so this guy joe van pulitzer says he turned down a 10 million dollar bribe

00:57:05.700 to not help a forensic audit of balance i'm gonna say uh i'd wait on the credibility of that story

00:57:15.460 um

00:57:21.860 all right

00:57:26.500 catherine says lol my husband is so lazy he must be the happiest man alive

00:57:32.180 that's true that's true that is true i i don't know how you can be lazy and unhappy at the same time

00:57:41.860 because if you're unhappy isn't that pretty good motivation to go change something

00:57:49.460 um somebody says pulitzer is this fellow joe van pulitzer is very credible i would suggest that you

00:57:56.740 look at his uh his history i'll just put it there if it's your opinion that he's very credible

00:58:04.740 just just research research his history and if you still think that he's credible then there you go

00:58:12.980 um

00:58:17.540 all right women want resources for their kin lol all right 1.00

00:58:24.340 uh

00:58:26.740 have i seen jordan peterson nazi memes i don't know what you're talking about

00:58:32.580 all right that's enough for this and i will talk to you tomorrow

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 11, 2021

Episode 1341 Scott Adams： Test Your Predictions, My Problem With Vaccinations and Passports, Reparations, and Coffee

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