Real Coffee with Scott Adams - April 11, 2021


Episode 1341 Scott Adams： Test Your Predictions, My Problem With Vaccinations and Passports, Reparations, and Coffee


Episode Stats

Length

58 minutes

Words per Minute

149.51202

Word Count

8,778

Sentence Count

2

Misogynist Sentences

14

Hate Speech Sentences

18


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 yes it is coffee time that is correct yes somebody says i always see is in trouble
00:00:12.000 well i didn't see that story yet hey how would you like to enjoy today like a lot
00:00:17.700 all you need is a simultaneous sip because that makes everything better and all you need is a
00:00:23.800 cup or a mug or a glass of tank or chalice or stein a canteen jerk or flask or pestle of any
00:00:27.860 kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled
00:00:35.580 pleasure of the dopamine to the day the thing makes everything better and you don't need a
00:00:40.460 passport for this it's called the simultaneous sip but it happens now go
00:00:43.860 now i'm not going to tell you that drinking coffee will protect you from the coronavirus
00:00:57.220 but i've been drinking coffee every day and no coronavirus yet so that's the thing i call
00:01:06.940 science you should always get your science from youtube live streams with cartoonists
00:01:13.740 well let's talk about all the things fun story today from joel pollack in breitbart and
00:01:22.420 interestingly i don't know what other publications will carry this story it seems that one of the
00:01:28.940 co-founders of black lives matter patrice con colors has bought four homes since 2016 i think she still
00:01:39.660 owns all four now here's my take on that there are two ways you could look at this one way would be
00:01:50.100 hey i think this black lives matter organization has some possibly possibly some questions to answer
00:01:58.980 about where the money is going because i don't know exactly what other sources of income she has but
00:02:06.180 she might she might be uh you know get uh money for public speaking maybe she has a book deal
00:02:12.580 i don't know i i would feel like if you were a co-founder of black lives matter you could get a book deal if
00:02:19.540 you wanted one so we don't know where our money comes from but the interesting thing is what if it came
00:02:25.920 from donations to the organization because i kind of want that to be true and not because i want a crime
00:02:33.840 to be committed and not because i want any you know the organization to be less credible but only
00:02:42.120 because it would be reparations and it would be funny i think it would be hilarious because where does most of
00:02:49.960 the money come from that backs black lives matter does most of the money come from donations from
00:02:57.040 poor black people i don't know but probably not most i would think that most of the money that goes to
00:03:04.380 back of the black lives matter organization probably came from white people mostly right big big groups
00:03:13.100 billionaires people wanted to donate money so what i see is a story in which a bunch of white people
00:03:19.700 gave some money to a founder of uh or at least the black lives matter and one of the founders is
00:03:26.500 living really well it looks like
00:03:28.040 so i don't care about any of this do you do you really care if a bunch of white people donated money
00:03:39.760 and allegedly potentially i have no evidence to prove it that this is the case but people suspect that
00:03:47.460 maybe some of that white money went to supporting a black woman's uh uh comfortable lifestyle
00:03:54.260 which to me i don't even care do you care
00:03:58.620 to me it's just funny but we have not ruled out let me say this carefully she may have made the money
00:04:09.400 in perfectly you know legal other activities because she would have the option to do that i mean she seems
00:04:15.300 to be a pretty high functioning human being so if she started black lives better she probably also knows
00:04:21.900 how to make money it is a little odd that she's calls herself a trained marxist and might own more
00:04:28.460 real estate than 99 of the world but she's allowed she lives in the system that allows it
00:04:37.300 so if she's playing the system and winning to me it's just funny um
00:04:44.520 the the george floyd trial uh and the whole situation if you will may have almost got somebody
00:04:55.600 killed unrelated to the whole george floyd thing uh and you probably saw the story story army lieutenant
00:05:03.000 nazario who is reportedly part black plat part hispanic was driving his new car home and he was
00:05:10.720 pulled over and he was afraid to get out of the car so if you saw the video it looks like a person who's
00:05:19.900 quite justifiably afraid the police are going to murder him even if he cooperates so his hands were out of
00:05:27.540 the car so he was completely you know safe and under control but he made but the little part of the clip
00:05:35.160 i heard he was saying that he was concerned about unbuckling his seat belt because that would require
00:05:41.340 his hands to go down here while a gun is pointed at him was that was he unreasonable to ask that maybe
00:05:50.040 the police could unbuckle him because if he moves his hands out of their view he could get shot was he
00:05:57.880 unreasonable you know in a normal time that would sound unreasonable wouldn't it it would sound
00:06:06.340 unreasonable in normal times but these are not normal times he's presumably watched that video of
00:06:12.380 george floyd as many times as you have and probably thinks that the police are looking for a reason to
00:06:18.780 shoot him is that unreasonable i wish it were i wish that were unreasonable it's just not and this was a
00:06:29.440 military member um when i see police officers treating a member of the military like this it has a whole
00:06:37.920 different you know it takes on a whole bigger meaning um and worse but i but it has to be said
00:06:48.060 that he was also resisting oh i won't say resisting arrest but he was resisting doing exactly what they
00:06:57.740 said but he was still in communication with him still completely safe his hands were out the window
00:07:04.220 clearly the police could handle this better clearly but it has to be said he could have handled it better
00:07:12.260 too now i don't have specific advice for him but i don't believe he handled this right but it wasn't
00:07:19.760 really his job too was it i feel like the police had a little bit more responsibility to manage it so that
00:07:26.620 he could feel safe while they could feel safe they were the experts and they were in control and he was
00:07:34.320 asking them quite clearly give me a way to do this safely and they didn't they only made it scarier the
00:07:42.720 more he asked for safety the scarier they made it the police should be fired immediately you know i don't know
00:07:51.260 if there are any charges that come with this but if those police officers are still working today
00:07:57.500 that's not cool i feel like they should be gone already uh but we have to do something about the fact
00:08:07.700 that you have a person of color who's afraid to even surrender to the police gotta fix that that's a
00:08:15.700 pretty big problem um the hunter biden laptop story i feel like it's sending all the wrong messages
00:08:25.160 in fact the whole hunter biden story in general because this is what i see so far
00:08:32.820 the hunter biden did excellent drugs and had lots of orgies with uh strippers which sounds fun
00:08:43.980 i mean you know i'm not recommending it i don't think you should necessarily adopt that lifestyle but
00:08:52.180 sounds fun while you're doing it and apparently that's all working out for him
00:08:59.040 i think it's going to work out i'm not sure that's the message we want to send to anybody
00:09:06.440 it's like well if you do that uh you don't even have to remember if you lost the laptop
00:09:12.000 now of course everybody's laughing at the fact that he's actually going on
00:09:15.920 on a legitimate you would think news and uh interview programs and actually getting away
00:09:23.920 with saying he doesn't know if his laptop was taken from him or if he dropped it uh at a place to be
00:09:31.280 fixed and forgot about it how many laptops do you have is there anybody here who has more than say
00:09:41.160 two or that are they're up to date i mean i i have two laptops but one i don't use you know i could
00:09:51.060 imagine you know somebody might steal that one and i wouldn't notice for a week but if somebody asked
00:09:57.560 me hey do you have all of your laptops i think i could figure that out right away i've got two
00:10:03.520 one wait a minute wait a minute i had two yesterday so yes and i see people saying three
00:10:13.720 and four but i'll bet you know where they all are so the fact that he's getting away with that is
00:10:20.660 just hilarious and it tells you the the state of our uh of our news and as others have pointed out
00:10:27.740 it would be easy for the people asking him this question to follow up and say but is the content
00:10:35.360 we've seen real kind of an obvious question you don't know if the laptop is yours but is the content
00:10:45.640 yours which seems more of an appropriate question all right so our news is failing us on that as well
00:10:55.560 as everything else let us test your predictions okay so every time there's a big thing in the news
00:11:02.100 we all make a prediction about how it's going to go so we're going to test a few of your predictions
00:11:06.920 about uh iran during the trump administration and uh this is from a tweet by adele so twitter user adele
00:11:16.940 um and she points out that these are the things people predicted that if a solomon a was eliminated
00:11:25.460 there would be world war three did you think that i did not think that so my prediction was right
00:11:34.000 if you predicted there would be war because of this well you're wrong um how about when the u.s moved
00:11:41.400 its embassy in israel um that there'll be world war three i predicted that there wouldn't be yeah there'd
00:11:52.180 be trouble but we'd get over it uh if you predicted there would be you were wrong how about when trump
00:11:58.520 designated the uh iranian republican guard as a as a foreign terrorist organization world war three
00:12:08.480 nope hardly even heard about it
00:12:12.260 um none of that happened now as adele points out those same experts who warned against all of those
00:12:22.040 things and were wrong on all those things are giving us some more advice about entering back into the jcpoa
00:12:30.880 so there's your experts so what does it even mean to be an expert anymore i feel as if you can be an
00:12:39.360 expert and just be completely wrong about everything i just don't know what expert means anymore
00:12:45.580 it's losing its value here's a uh interesting hypothesis i'll run this by you and see what you think
00:12:54.760 okay this comes from a twitter user crumb hunger crumb with a k um and he says so this is his
00:13:05.060 hypothesis let's see what you think trump is being used to split the gop in two now which is why he
00:13:13.280 hasn't been arrested hmm can anyone else see the strategy here the democrats are playing 40 chess
00:13:20.380 what do you think and i'm not completely buying that not completely buying that because you know any
00:13:30.620 kind of uh legal action could take a long time uh maybe it's not clear that there's anything to charge
00:13:37.600 him with there could be lots of reasons that there are no charges but one of them but one of them
00:13:45.300 could be that people who are in charge of making the decision to charge or not might not want to do
00:13:53.300 it they might want him to stay around now we know that the democrats have used this exact strategy
00:13:59.300 well exact might be subjective but exact in the sense that we have documents that show the democrats
00:14:07.240 did want the news media to promote trump during the first election because they thought he had the
00:14:13.700 least chance of winning so they were trying to keep him in the public eye because they thought that
00:14:19.440 would be good for them that didn't work out in 2016 but are they doing it again is it possible that
00:14:29.740 having him just sort of twisting around out there with uh legal issues over him is the ideal situation
00:14:37.620 because it splits the republicans i don't think i can rule this out can you i don't think you can rule
00:14:45.880 it out but here's another hypothesis what would happen if trump were arrested
00:14:53.240 for what i don't know as far as i know there are no specific allegations with any kind of evidence
00:15:01.440 that the public's ever seen you know you hear all kinds of you know unsourced references to things
00:15:07.620 but as far as i know i'm not aware of any evidence of a crime are you you we're like allegations and
00:15:15.520 whispers and maybe this and maybe that but any evidence i mean i feel like the public would have heard
00:15:23.440 heard something you know something we haven't already heard before so one possibility is that there never
00:15:31.820 was anything illegal right so there that would certainly explain why he's not being arrested
00:15:38.180 nothing illegal another possibility is can you imagine what trump would do if he had nothing to lose
00:15:51.120 can you imagine that do you know how many things trump knows that the public doesn't know
00:15:59.340 do you know how much he knows about other citizens people he's worked with people who've done things that
00:16:07.460 he knows that you don't know oh my god if trump ever goes down there are going to be a lot of his
00:16:16.300 enemies who go down in the same day or soon after because he's not going to go down alone
00:16:22.160 you know that he's going to take as many of his enemies with him as he can and if i were one of his
00:16:29.340 enemies i would certainly wonder what he knows about me so this is really interesting he might be
00:16:36.040 virtually unarrestable or at least unprosecutable because he's just too dangerous
00:16:42.920 maybe right i'd be pretty worried about what he knows because he wouldn't be shy about telling you
00:16:51.560 if he had nothing to lose remember i told you that there should be something like the turing test
00:16:59.700 except instead of trying to find out if it's a computer or a real person behind the curtain that's
00:17:05.460 talking to you i suggested the dilbert test in which you see if you can tell the difference between
00:17:12.460 reality and parody all right so i'm going to read you a tweet allegedly or am i making this one up
00:17:21.360 is this a real tweet that a real person seriously said or is it just a parody of people like this
00:17:30.000 okay and the tweet went like this
00:17:33.100 white people and men do you ever take a day off from your nonsense wake up and think quote
00:17:42.120 uh i am going to be less toxic today please try it just one day is that something a real person said
00:17:51.220 in public white people and men do you ever take a day off from your nonsense wake up and think
00:17:57.120 i am going to be less toxic toxic today that's a real tweet somebody looked at the world and said
00:18:05.180 this should go over about right oh a little controversial but i think i i think i'm on
00:18:10.880 strong ground with this one this was uh the tweeter is uh sayera rao two names that i find hard to
00:18:20.020 pronounce so i'm just guessing and she's a co-author of a forthcoming book uh called white women everything
00:18:28.620 you already know about your own racism and how to do better is that a real book it's a real book
00:18:36.720 white women everything you already know about your own racism and how to do better well i'd like to
00:18:44.140 write a book for sayera rao to uh help her do better she needs a book all right
00:18:53.180 um as you know there are there is some talk of reparations i think the president biden i think he
00:19:03.540 wants uh some kind of a committee to look into options here's what you need to know about the
00:19:09.420 move toward reparations i believe nobody serious is talking about cash payments can we start there
00:19:18.180 as soon as you hear reparations you hear oh no this isn't gonna work because white people are
00:19:25.260 gonna have to pay money through taxes or whatever uh gonna pay money to black people and why are we
00:19:31.400 punishing white people who had nothing to do with slavery in most cases yes they benefited but maybe
00:19:37.680 they didn't what about the poor white people what about the black people who were not burdened by
00:19:42.940 slavery what about black people who became rich there's just no way you can do a cash payment
00:19:47.880 can everybody here start with the agreement that no matter what reparations for slavery could ever look
00:19:57.020 like it's never going to include a direct cash payment and if it did there would be too much
00:20:02.960 resistance so can we all agree that that's off the table before we talk about it would you agree
00:20:09.800 now there's certainly you got the slippery slope i know you're worried about that and i can't say it
00:20:14.720 would never happen i'm just saying it's not worth talking about right because there's nothing to talk
00:20:21.560 about it would be a horrible idea if it happened i know you'd hate it i would hate it i would argue
00:20:28.580 against it but here's here's the only thing i would like to add to the conversation sometimes
00:20:36.900 because we're we're so uh automatically we go to our teams what does my team think about this issue
00:20:44.660 what does my team think we turn everything into a fight and lots of times that makes sense because
00:20:52.660 you're just on different teams and you want different things and it's kind of a fight a political fight
00:20:56.680 but it's a fight but we we sort of automatically think everything's a fight what if you change
00:21:03.360 your frame and just just for conversation just for the intellectual experience of it you just say to
00:21:11.540 yourself what if it's not a problem or a fight what if it's a puzzle and the puzzle is this how could
00:21:20.060 you do something that would have let's say the effect of reparations the effect being something really
00:21:25.700 good for black americans something that they felt was compensatory in some way toward the legacy of
00:21:33.600 slavery now uh suppose you could do something in which they were happy they the black americans who
00:21:42.360 care about reparations it was something that made them happy at the same time it made uh let's say
00:21:50.400 republicans just keep it simple also happy could you do it is there any way you could come up with a plan that
00:21:58.300 would make those two disparate groups of americans they're all americans right should be something in common
00:22:05.180 but disparate in many ways is there anything that would be called reparations if you're thinking
00:22:12.080 expansively it's not just a payment it's a it's a way of doing things it's a change to the system
00:22:18.020 it's an improvement it's a tweak it's an adjustment of something that would make both sides happy now if
00:22:26.220 you can't make both sides happy can we agree it's not worth doing are you okay with that let's say that
00:22:35.740 the starting point is if it's something that makes black americans happy about reparations
00:22:41.060 but it made let's say poor white americans unhappy because they got whatever they're just unhappy it's
00:22:47.940 not good that's not where we want to go it's got to be both happy or don't do it that's that's the
00:22:53.940 starting point here's my suggestion for a creative way now i'm not saying this is the idea but i'm giving
00:23:00.160 you an example of a creative way to approach this that gets you everything you want for both sides
00:23:05.720 what is it that republicans want more than just about anything lately it's better schools and
00:23:12.280 specifically more competition in schools would you all agree that republicans want school choice
00:23:19.520 school competition they want funding to follow the kid not funding going to school that's going to
00:23:25.900 ruin them and indoctrinate them right republicans want competitive better schools and here's the
00:23:34.000 important part they would open their wallets for it but it's hard to get republicans to simply fund
00:23:40.880 the existing school system when it's not what they want i mean they'll fund it to the minimum
00:23:48.120 but republicans say that's not the system we want you're brainwashing our kids you're getting bad
00:23:55.180 results you're not even helping black americans what are you doing and what's the problem it's the
00:24:01.360 teachers unions right the teachers unions prevent the competition that would allow republicans to be
00:24:07.440 happy with the direction of education now what about black americans what do they care about the most
00:24:14.160 well they would care about racism systemic racism inequality in every way what is the biggest lever you
00:24:22.740 you could push or pull that would make a difference now if we accept that there are a million forms of
00:24:30.660 racism embedded in society and i do i i feel like that's a fair statement meaning that no matter where
00:24:37.540 you are there's a lot of friction to to get anywhere so if where we are keeps a certain group from
00:24:43.300 you know you know uh thriving that's real but what's the biggest thing you could do education if you
00:24:52.660 if you created a situation where every black kid and every kid right just every kid but every black kid
00:25:00.260 can have a good education you've taken a problem that's this big of racism and you just shrunk it to this
00:25:08.660 big now that last part's really really hard to get rid of but the first part isn't the first part is
00:25:15.140 just make education better so every black kid can get one that's the big thing that's the big lever
00:25:23.460 and republicans agree so could you do reparations by saying we would like to do a grand deal
00:25:31.700 i know we don't agree on stuff but on this we do agree republicans want black americans
00:25:38.420 to have a better education totally want that because they want it for their own kids and you
00:25:44.740 can't really you know what what would be a fair solution where it only goes to one side none right
00:25:50.820 so republicans would like everybody to have equal opportunity and they would like black kids to have
00:25:56.020 better education they'd like their own to have a better education and it's the same process you have
00:26:00.740 to stand up to the teachers unions who are the source of most systemic racism because they don't
00:26:07.620 let you fix the big part the differences in education that's the big part right still lots
00:26:13.700 of little parts not minimizing that they need some work but the big part is education
00:26:21.860 so that's reparations black americans saying we have the political clout because they do to deal with
00:26:29.780 the teachers unions republicans saying we don't have the political clout but we got a lot of money and we
00:26:36.500 can give you our support imagine republicans and black americans saying look let's fight about
00:26:42.580 everything else but we're on the same team on this stuff education and once you realize you're on the
00:26:50.660 same team it's a puzzle it's not a problem it's a puzzle you got all the parts to form the complete
00:27:00.020 picture you have all the parts nothing's missing do we lack money nope we don't we don't lack money for
00:27:09.780 good things we lack money for things that people don't agree on but we could get agreement on this
00:27:17.700 so the larger picture is sometimes your problems are not fights they are puzzles if you see it as a
00:27:26.020 puzzle you've got a chance of fixing it satisfying everybody if you see it as a problem it just stays
00:27:31.380 that way um so that was the least tweeted uh tweet i've ever done i think people hate this idea people
00:27:42.020 absolutely hate me even like giving any oxygen to this idea but i think most of it is because you're
00:27:47.140 thinking of it in terms of a win-lose situation i have no tolerance no tolerance for a win-lose
00:27:55.620 situation but i'm completely optimistic we could figure out how everybody wins this is one of those
00:28:02.420 rare situations where everybody winning is completely accessible you maybe you couldn't do that in every
00:28:08.740 situation but this one you could um we're hearing that the chinese vaccinations suck
00:28:14.820 you might think our vaccinations are bad that would be your opinion but apparently even the chinese
00:28:21.300 are saying their vaccinations are not very effective and so they're suggesting that they might take
00:28:29.060 some different vaccines that are not effective and maybe just add them together so they've got one
00:28:35.300 super vaccine nothing scary about that take one vaccine that isn't as isn't tested as much as you wish it
00:28:44.500 were mix it with another one that's also not tested as much as you were and then you've got a new
00:28:50.580 vaccine that's made of two things with when you put put them together nothing's been tested because
00:28:57.540 you've never tested them together so that seems like it's going from bad to worse in china
00:29:07.860 and is this what happens when china doesn't have the ability to steal our technology
00:29:12.260 that they can't even make a vaccine so you've got american and european companies you know knocking
00:29:17.220 out vaccines you might not like them but they seem to be more effective and china can't make a vaccine
00:29:23.860 unless they steal our technology is that what's happening i'm really curious about the apparent lack of
00:29:33.460 innovative entrepreneurial technical ability in china because clearly it's not an education problem
00:29:40.500 it's not a wanting to do it problem but why is it that china doesn't create and invent stuff as good
00:29:50.260 as america does anybody know why that is is that entirely because their system is bad because you got
00:29:57.060 to think that you know the same the same people who would come to america are probably inventing
00:30:02.180 shit right literally the same family if some members come over here and work in silicon valley
00:30:08.180 suddenly they start inventing good things so it's got to be the system right right or their schools
00:30:16.500 i don't know i just wonder what it is that makes them so uncompetitive in this major way all right
00:30:22.100 let's talk about vaccinations
00:30:25.780 my feelings about vaccinations are do you like this word evolving they're evolving
00:30:34.100 um i'm seeing a lot of people criticizing my opinions on vaccinations while not quite understanding
00:30:41.380 them which is basically twitter right twitter is people being criticized for things that you don't
00:30:47.620 quite understand and you misinterpreted them that's like 80 percent of twitter um but i'll give you my
00:30:53.860 latest updated feelings about vaccinations and passports with a little bit of a change
00:30:59.220 change i would say an update from where i where i had been first thing that uh bothers me is that we
00:31:09.220 have such a different risk profile in this country between let's say older and obese people and younger
00:31:15.540 healthy people that if we all take the vaccination are we all improving our odds because i don't know that
00:31:25.060 that that's been demonstrated by any data has it do we know that young people would um have a better
00:31:33.700 chance of outcomes with the vaccinations even if we do know that the older weaker people do have it suppose
00:31:41.380 we know for sure that the vaccinations are definitely a good risk for half of the population but what if
00:31:48.420 there's another half of the population where it's not so clear is is the data obvious that is clear that
00:31:56.420 it's good for everybody i don't know that we have that data do we i feel like we've used an average
00:32:03.140 like on average it's good but there's such a wildly different risk profile that i asked myself wait a
00:32:10.900 minute am i in the old old and sick group in which a vaccination i would say would be a good idea
00:32:18.420 based on what we know today a risk management decision if you are old and weak and the coronavirus
00:32:24.340 was likely to kill you maybe maybe the vaccination makes sense but suppose you're younger and healthy
00:32:31.780 if you take the if you get the vaccination you still can get the coronavirus
00:32:40.020 right you still have to wear the masks you still have to you know do all that stuff
00:32:47.460 um so you're not buying that much and you can still spread it if you have it
00:32:54.420 so the first question is am i in the group that might be worse off with the vaccination
00:33:01.380 and i don't even know if that's true i don't know if there is such a group because our data is so
00:33:06.500 incomplete or am i in the older group because i'm kind of on the bubble because my age don't know it's
00:33:12.900 kind of hard in my case but here's the thing that's that um you know there's always one piece of
00:33:20.900 information that makes the big difference like it just maybe it's just personal or something
00:33:26.260 but here's the piece of information that totally flipped my switch are you ready
00:33:35.380 i don't know if this is different where you are apparently and i need a fact check on this please
00:33:40.100 fact check me apparently i'm not allowed to know which vaccine i'm getting
00:33:46.420 is that is that true in california i think it's true here is that true anywhere else
00:33:50.580 that you're not allowed to know in advance which one you're getting because that's kind of a
00:33:59.060 that feels like a hard no all right i'm sitting wrong i'm looking at your comments here not here
00:34:05.620 oh it's not true there so some of you are told they told you but did they tell you before you showed up
00:34:14.260 did they tell you only once you were in the chair
00:34:20.340 not true in pennsylvania yeah i did read a news report that in california you wouldn't be told
00:34:25.540 which one you're getting i'm saying yeses and nos so i guess there's some uncertainty on this
00:34:32.820 not in texas had to ask yes at the appointment okay so i'm guessing that you learn once you get there
00:34:39.460 but you don't learn when you make the appointment right um and that bothers me that bothers me
00:34:47.300 now i get why they i get why they might want to do that but at this point i don't believe there's
00:34:53.460 any way for me to say i will take the single dose but i won't take the double dose i don't have that
00:34:59.780 option right at least in california but how long would i have to wait until i did have the option
00:35:06.660 because it seems like that would have to be in the future right if you wait another i don't know
00:35:12.340 however long well we get to the point where we have enough supply that i can say okay what kind
00:35:18.580 of vaccine do you have i i don't like that one or i like this one i feel like the the least you should
00:35:25.140 be able to know is before you go which one you're going to get yeah likely summer or fall june maybe
00:35:32.420 something like that so that that's a variable that at least where i am i don't i don't know of any
00:35:38.260 way to find out in advance but maybe where you are you can um now if you get the vaccination you are
00:35:48.180 likely to have uh maybe two days where you have like a flu if you don't get the vaccination and you
00:35:55.460 get the actual coronavirus you're likely to have a few days of the flu maybe longer in both cases
00:36:04.340 you could either die because even vaccinations can kill some people
00:36:10.020 and if you get the coronavirus you might die because the coronavirus kills some percentage of
00:36:15.700 people and in both cases there's a risk but we don't know how much of long-term health problems
00:36:24.100 there's a risk that the vaccine could give you long-term health problems we don't know how much
00:36:29.460 there's a risk that the coronavirus could give you long-term health problems don't know how much
00:36:34.100 there's a risk that if you um if you get the vaccination then you can get a passport and you
00:36:42.900 could go to more places but really do you think that's going to be real so one of the reasons that i'm
00:36:51.540 less concerned about passports than most of you uh i'm going to be i'll be a little anti-passport here
00:36:58.740 in a minute so just calm down calm down i know it looks like nazi germany show your papers blah blah
00:37:06.420 but remember you're already in that world there are very few things you can do without showing your id
00:37:12.580 so you're already in nazi germany you got to show your papers that's not different it's just another
00:37:18.980 thing you'd have to show your papers to so i don't i don't think the argument that you'd have to show
00:37:24.340 your papers is persuasive because it's just already the case you already have to show your id for all
00:37:30.340 kinds of stuff um but should we add to that that's a good question so here's my take on passports i think
00:37:41.300 that uh they can't work so i'm less worried than you are because you think that it could be implemented
00:37:48.740 and it would work um i with my background in business and life and economics believe there's
00:37:56.180 no way it could work and here's why let me give you a concrete example let's say a restaurant
00:38:02.340 decides that you must have a passport to go to the restaurant would that work would it restaurants have
00:38:10.260 really small margins of profit if they were to lose 10 or 20 of their customers it's the difference
00:38:17.300 between profit and no profit if the restaurant next door another italian restaurant because have you
00:38:24.980 ever noticed there's never just one italian restaurant there's not just one chinese restaurant
00:38:31.460 there's always competition so if you're right next to one that doesn't require a mask and let's say you
00:38:36.340 want to go to a dinner and there are four of you three of you got the vaccination one of you just
00:38:43.860 recovered from the actual coronavirus so one of you didn't need a vaccination because you you just
00:38:50.420 recovered you can't go to eat at the vaccination place you've got to go to the competitor so the
00:38:57.140 competitor gets everybody who wants to eat there maybe some people say i'm a little afraid no vaccinations
00:39:03.780 there so they go to the other one but pretty soon i think the ones with the vaccination requirement
00:39:09.860 realize that no foursome can eat there you could get one person you could get a couple to eat there
00:39:16.900 because lots of times couples get vaccinated around the same time but it'd be hard to get a table of four
00:39:24.260 where all four of them have a vaccination for a while so i think that competition will make it largely
00:39:30.420 difficult for anybody to make this stick now where there is no competition it's a problem let me give you
00:39:38.740 an example you saw the story of the volcano on the island and the cruise ships said they would only
00:39:44.020 take people who were vaccinated and then you said to yourself i told you i told you as soon as it's an
00:39:50.260 option they're going to make sure you have you're vaccinated or you can't do stuff well this is exactly
00:39:56.580 an example of no competition right so remember where there is competition it'll probably be fine
00:40:03.380 because there's competition that fixes just about everything where there's no competition uh oh we
00:40:10.020 only have a few cruise ships but we've got all these people on the island and there's no other way to get
00:40:15.860 them off that's no competition in that case those cruise ships can do anything they want because there's
00:40:23.540 no competition now apparently it wasn't the ships that required it it was the countries that were they
00:40:29.060 were going to deliver those folks too it was the countries that didn't want them delivered to them
00:40:33.860 that made the cruise ships have that rule i think that'll probably get fixed i think there will be
00:40:40.020 other boats and other destinations and other solutions so i think that everywhere there's no
00:40:44.660 competition probably there's workarounds and where there is competition it kind of takes care of itself
00:40:50.420 and i think that as long as the government doesn't require these passports and so far it looks like
00:40:55.700 they won't because neither neither republicans nor democrats want them um i'm just not that worried
00:41:02.820 of all the things i'm going to worry about today it's kind of toward the bottom really
00:41:08.980 but i don't i don't fault somebody who wants to worry more about it it's just that my experience shows
00:41:14.580 that this this has all the characteristics of something that will fall apart under its own weight
00:41:20.100 right um so there's that um
00:41:31.300 what do you think about the uh the fact that uh reparations are going to go to a committee
00:41:37.300 that's kind of a way to kill them isn't it the the best way to kill anything is to send it to a
00:41:42.660 committee the same thing with court packing and i saw i uh saw some smart people jonathan turley
00:41:49.620 and other people are now agreeing that it's probably it's probably biden's plan to kill a
00:41:55.540 court packing by sending it to committee committee probably won't favor it with enough uh with enough
00:42:02.660 of majority for anything to happen
00:42:04.180 um here's a medical question for you um i am continually bothered by the fact that we don't
00:42:12.980 know how pandemics end because it's not by vaccinations at least historically so that's the
00:42:20.420 biggest unknown and the most important thing if we knew that would maybe we'd act differently and so
00:42:26.820 the question is this um do you will the vaccinations make the virus mutate faster and become dangerous i
00:42:35.380 don't know i mean it sounds scary but who knows and so here's my question is it possible is this a thing
00:42:45.460 to be exposed to trace amounts of the coronavirus not enough to ever get sick and not enough even to be
00:42:53.300 an asymptomatic infected person in other words if they tested you it might not even show up
00:42:59.540 but could you develop uh some some like a little bit of antibodies without ever being in really
00:43:07.300 infected i know you can be infected asymptomatic that's not what i'm talking about can you be exposed
00:43:16.180 and somehow build like this little bit of immunity without ever really actually having it is that a
00:43:26.740 thing because we have this mystery of how a pandemic can ever end you know well before you get to herd
00:43:35.300 immunity some people have some kind of immunity it just has to be now i don't know if that immunity is
00:43:42.420 is genetic could be could be genetic but i feel like maybe especially with this coronavirus where
00:43:52.340 it's everywhere it's in the air do you believe you haven't breathed in any coronavirus
00:43:59.220 because i feel like i must breathe it everywhere i feel like every time i go to the you know grocery
00:44:04.100 store or whatever i feel like there must be a little bit of coronavirus in the air right just a little bit
00:44:12.340 so the question i wonder in my ignorant non-scientific non-medical brain is is there something about
00:44:20.340 it that people can get a little bit of it never know they had it but if they're ever exposed again
00:44:26.340 they're already a little bit ready i don't know uh runs let's see if somebody else has it and so
00:44:34.340 somebody says it takes out the weak but that doesn't quite explain it because the healthy would
00:44:40.580 still be infected they just wouldn't die there's something that makes these otherwise healthy
00:44:47.140 people just invulnerable and i feel like it might be exposure vitamin d levels maybe yeah i'm not sold
00:44:57.380 on the on all that all right uh there was a ted economist talking about climate change in a way
00:45:07.860 that uh only economists can i've told you before that when scientists tell you what the risk of
00:45:14.020 something is trouble is they're not economists scientists are not economists and i'm not saying
00:45:20.820 economists are always right i'm just saying it's a different field and understanding and so this ted
00:45:26.660 economist whose name i forgot to write down um made the following point uh let's say you wanted to go to
00:45:33.620 the steel industry and say steel industry stop uh putting co2 into the air could they do it well it turns
00:45:41.780 out they could do it physically they'd have to like tear down their whole factory and build it completely
00:45:47.300 differently and then they could make steel at uh fairly low co2 production but it might double their cost
00:45:57.860 so can they do it is it economically possible for the the makers of steel which is one big bigger component
00:46:05.940 of climate and co2 could they survive if they had to double their costs seems obviously no right
00:46:17.620 wouldn't every one of you say that they can't really compete they certainly can't compete
00:46:23.060 if they double the cost well here's what you didn't know suppose you went to buy your car
00:46:30.420 how much of the price of the car is steel because there's quite a bit of your car that's steel i think
00:46:36.900 it's like a ton of steel in a typical car it's got to be pretty expensive right well turns out you're wrong
00:46:46.420 that the cost of a car is mostly not parts or at least not raw materials the cost
00:46:52.980 the car is the production the assembly the overhead you know the shipping the sales the the marketing
00:46:59.540 blah blah it turns out that the total material cost of a car is 15 and that's not unusual for other
00:47:08.500 products with steel yeah it's all labor and all the other stuff so if you took a car
00:47:14.580 you say okay only 15 of it is materials and only a portion of that is steel and if you were to double
00:47:24.020 the cost of the small part of your car what would it do to the total cost well a 30 000 or 30 euro
00:47:34.180 30 000 euro car to use this ted talkers example might go up 500
00:47:41.140 but suppose you had an option of buying a car same car one is 500 more than the other but the one
00:47:50.580 that's 500 more say two percent or so of your total cost would be good for the planet and the other one
00:47:58.980 would not yeah you might buy the expensive one it's better for the planet because it's only a little bit
00:48:05.860 more expensive 500 for the price of the whole car you wouldn't even notice so the surprising thing
00:48:12.900 about this is you could tax the piss and the things that are the co2 producers and you'd hardly notice
00:48:21.940 in other words they could do incredibly expensive things to remediate how much co2 they put out
00:48:28.100 you wouldn't even notice did you know that did you know that so the 15 is all of the components uh
00:48:40.500 that's not just the steel part so the steel part is much less than the 15 now he did say you also have
00:48:47.540 to do the calculation on the other parts because every part creates some co2 but they're not as bad as
00:48:53.380 steel right it's not as bad so uh so the point is we probably do if we if we listen to economists
00:49:05.700 instead of scientists there's probably a fairly obvious way out you just uh put a great burden on
00:49:13.060 the things which are the problems pass the expense along to the public and the public doesn't notice
00:49:19.140 do you buy that they tax it all though co2 is not bad and steel is not bad well co2 is not bad in uh
00:49:33.620 in some quantities but everything's bad in too much of a quantity there's very few exceptions except maybe
00:49:41.060 money that might be the exception all right so i was just looking at your reaction to that to see
00:49:50.100 what you thought okay um
00:49:54.820 here uh here's a little provocative thing so not long ago i made the following statement that
00:50:03.300 people are talking about today which is that all it takes to make a uh a man happy let's say you're
00:50:10.180 you're in a marriage with a man and i said all it takes to make him happy is uh some combination of
00:50:16.660 at least three of the five things respect sex exercise work and food so if you're married to a
00:50:24.260 man and it's within your ability to make sure he gets at least three of those things or at least help
00:50:29.940 him he's probably going to be a fine doesn't have to be the same three every day but gotta get at least
00:50:35.700 three of these three of these things respect sex exercise work or food now it seems to be this is very
00:50:41.860 doable yeah food meaning uh eating with a man helping him you know make a sandwich or whatever i mean you
00:50:51.700 don't have to make the sandwich but if he's got food and it's good food he's going to be kind of happy
00:50:56.180 so these are all very doable things so any any woman could quite easily help make sure a guy gets
00:51:04.580 these things just by making sure the scheduling is good etc but does it work the other way
00:51:12.340 it seems to me that and i want to test this with you all right this is going to be very provocative
00:51:19.700 all right it goes like this if we take the filter that everything we do is some kind of reflection of
00:51:27.140 our mating instinct and then that's a good filter it's very predictive if you just say everything
00:51:33.220 you do is somehow being influenced by your mating instinct you end up explaining the whole world
00:51:39.060 it's a really good way to explain what's happening and it's an even better way to explain what's going
00:51:43.940 to happen next all right so we have a situation in which men appear to want to make their women you
00:51:54.500 know in your typical hetero relationship i think men want their wives to be happy would you say that's
00:52:01.140 true would you agree with the fact that men want their wives to be happy now if you use the mating
00:52:07.140 filter it makes perfect sense because the man wants to have sex and if the if his potential sex partner
00:52:17.140 is happier he has more chance so the main thing that a man is evolved to do which is have sex
00:52:25.540 and you know spread his seed that's his main biological impulse and making a woman happy is how he gets
00:52:33.700 there so does he legitimately want a woman to be happy yes unambiguously does it work the other way
00:52:45.940 does the woman have an unambiguous desire to make the man in her life happy
00:52:55.540 i don't think so and i don't think it has anything to do with the character of the woman
00:53:00.500 i think that through the biological filter they just don't have an incentive and indeed keeping a
00:53:09.060 man slightly unhappy so he's continuing to give you resources is probably the optimized situation isn't
00:53:17.060 it because if the man is happy he stops doing stuff well i got everything i need why would i do more
00:53:25.860 why would i bring you flowers if you're already happy why do i need to work harder to make money so
00:53:32.580 that we're more comfortable if you're already happy i would say that being that making a man happy
00:53:40.980 is biologically uh suboptimal
00:53:47.060 and that men to to keep our system working you know the biological part of our system
00:53:53.140 kind of need to be unsatisfied all the time so that we're working for stuff okay we got to work for
00:54:00.580 stuff right and i'm not sure that makes us unhappy because we like to work for stuff we're sort of
00:54:06.420 designed that way but you know you know everybody's different i see uh gene saying untrue not true sandra says
00:54:18.260 i want my man to be happy let me let me add a caveat to that i don't believe there's any woman who thinks
00:54:25.700 this way would you be okay with that in my opinion no woman would agree with what i said
00:54:35.300 consciously no woman is going to say yeah i do kind of like it when the man i love is a little bit
00:54:42.180 unhappy i believe nobody believes that so all of you all of you saying i'm seeing most of the women
00:54:48.260 saying that's not true i want my husband to be happy i do believe you believe that i don't believe
00:54:55.220 it's biologically true so i'm not sure that all of your actions are compatible with that many are of
00:55:03.060 course because you're in a relationship so of course you're considering what your partner wants but
00:55:08.900 i feel like there's a difference and that there's a biological reason for it that's somewhat obvious
00:55:15.860 do you buy that let me let me put this as uh just a provocative thought it's not what i'm telling you
00:55:22.580 is true so tomorrow when somebody says scott says this is true you will be lying i'm just saying it's a
00:55:30.740 provocative thought and i was uh i'm not sandra says you're not an anthropologist
00:55:36.580 no i'm not have you ever seen me disagree with experts before i'm just going to say look at my
00:55:45.940 track record of disagreeing with experts and then come back at with come back at me with how i'm not
00:55:52.180 one if my track record were that the experts are always right and i'm always wrong you'd have a good
00:55:59.860 point scott you're not an anthropologist but if it were the opposite you should say to yourself
00:56:06.740 wow it's weird how often you're right despite the experts disagree
00:56:13.220 um somebody's asked me do the lgbtq community do they have other forms of motivation and my guess
00:56:20.180 would be i don't know i mean you know there's nothing that's true for everybody
00:56:26.020 so if you're in the lgbtq community community you're already in a group that's uh i like to choose my
00:56:33.860 words carefully let's say non-majority i don't like to say non-standard because that that implies
00:56:40.020 something but you're in the non-majority and that's there they're always outliers for every situation
00:56:46.500 so i i think i think that you wouldn't make too many assumptions about that group probably it's all over
00:56:51.700 the place um
00:56:58.500 what is this um so this guy joe van pulitzer says he turned down a 10 million dollar bribe
00:57:05.700 to not help a forensic audit of balance i'm gonna say uh i'd wait on the credibility of that story
00:57:15.460 um
00:57:21.860 all right
00:57:26.500 catherine says lol my husband is so lazy he must be the happiest man alive
00:57:32.180 that's true that's true that is true i i don't know how you can be lazy and unhappy at the same time
00:57:41.860 because if you're unhappy isn't that pretty good motivation to go change something
00:57:49.460 um somebody says pulitzer is this fellow joe van pulitzer is very credible i would suggest that you
00:57:56.740 look at his uh his history i'll just put it there if it's your opinion that he's very credible
00:58:04.740 just just research research his history and if you still think that he's credible then there you go
00:58:12.980 um
00:58:17.540 all right women want resources for their kin lol all right
00:58:24.340 uh
00:58:26.740 have i seen jordan peterson nazi memes i don't know what you're talking about
00:58:32.580 all right that's enough for this and i will talk to you tomorrow