Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1375 Scott Adams： Israel's Clever Tunnel Decoy Plan, Masks Off For the Vaccinated, Checking Your Predictions

00:00:00.000 Hey everybody, come on in, come on in.

00:00:06.980 It's time, yeah, it's time for Coffee with Scott Adams.

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00:00:44.720 It's called the Simultaneous Sip. I think you've heard of it.

00:00:47.540 And it's going to happen now.

00:00:50.520 Go.

00:00:50.920 I think I added a little extra slurping to that one, just to give a little extra kick.

00:01:01.180 Yeah.

00:01:02.440 Well, how do you all feel today?

00:01:06.420 Better, right?

00:01:09.300 Yes, for the fully vaccinated, you get to take off your masks.

00:01:16.100 Some places.

00:01:17.000 No, when I say that your fully vaccinated people can take off their masks, I don't mean in my state.

00:01:25.420 No, no, no.

00:01:26.980 California isn't like other places.

00:01:30.200 So just because the CDC finally said it's safe to take off your mask if you're fully vaccinated,

00:01:36.980 except in specific cases,

00:01:39.520 well, that did not change the policy in New York or California,

00:01:44.660 in which the governors both said,

00:01:47.000 wait a minute, can't take your masks off yet.

00:01:51.480 How does that make you feel if you're in New York or California?

00:01:55.800 I'll tell you how it makes me feel.

00:01:58.800 I'm not going to listen to this anymore.

00:02:01.640 Now, of course, you have to listen to businesses,

00:02:04.280 or if you want to get on a plane and they've got a rule, you have to listen to that.

00:02:08.120 But I just can't listen to the governors on this.

00:02:13.840 I just don't respect their authority and would not plan to obey it at all.

00:02:20.180 So I'm a few days away from my second vaccination, another week or so.

00:02:27.020 And can somebody give me a fact check on this?

00:02:31.200 Is a person considered fully vaccinated at the moment they get their second shot?

00:02:39.260 Or is it another two weeks after the shot?

00:02:41.960 Can somebody give me a ruling on that?

00:02:43.940 And is it the same for all three types of vaccinations?

00:02:47.960 Well, one of them has just one.

00:02:51.100 Somebody says two weeks.

00:02:52.220 So what I'm wondering is, is the two weeks also applicable to the two-dose?

00:03:03.000 So I'm seeing maybe a little different messages here.

00:03:05.760 Let's figure that out before the end of today.

00:03:08.100 Seems pretty important, doesn't it?

00:03:10.540 So I'm seeing two weeks after.

00:03:11.940 But I think there might be a difference between what the scientific peak is and what the social legal guideline peak is.

00:03:25.400 In other words, maybe you can still fly if you just got your second vaccination.

00:03:30.500 But maybe technically you're not fully vaccinated.

00:03:33.680 Is it going to be something like that?

00:03:35.420 So we need some clarity on that.

00:03:37.180 That's a pretty important point.

00:03:38.460 And I'm surprised, given how important it is, I'm surprised it's not a prominent part of the news.

00:03:44.500 And it should be.

00:03:46.000 All right.

00:03:46.460 So here's the good news.

00:03:48.620 A lot of people are blaming the CDC for being slow to do this.

00:03:54.620 But I'm going to go against the grain a little bit and say that the CDC does have an obligation to be a little safer than you and I might choose for ourselves.

00:04:08.460 I don't feel like I can blame the CDC for waiting for, I guess they waited to find out if the variants would be handled by the vaccinations.

00:04:19.460 And apparently they are, at least so far.

00:04:22.780 And I think there was some more information they got about vaccinations and transmission.

00:04:28.560 So they did wait until they had all the information.

00:04:34.740 I'm not sure you would want that to be different, even if you and I would have made different decisions.

00:04:40.400 Because you and I would just be deciding for ourselves, right?

00:04:44.240 But if it's your job to make the recommendation, I don't know that I care that they wait a few extra weeks.

00:04:50.980 You know, I feel like that's responsible.

00:04:54.840 So I, of course, am a critic of the CDC for the things they get wrong.

00:05:00.120 But I just can't fault them for being a little extra cautious compared to what individuals would do.

00:05:06.540 That's kind of where you want it.

00:05:08.040 I don't think you'd want it the other way.

00:05:10.220 I don't think you'd want the CDC to take more chances than an individual would with their own life.

00:05:16.440 I don't think you'd want that.

00:05:18.780 So we have plenty to complain about with the CDC, but I'm not going to complain about this one.

00:05:27.060 I am going to complain about my governor.

00:05:30.720 I don't quite understand why my governor thinks the vaccinated people still need a mask.

00:05:37.760 As I said before, the public will lead on this.

00:05:41.520 Apparently we'll have to.

00:05:42.500 And I think that when I'm fully vaccinated, I would certainly obey what any business wanted me to do.

00:05:51.780 Because businesses can set their own rules, right?

00:05:54.340 Private business says you've got to do this or you've got to do that.

00:05:58.000 You've got to wear a shirt.

00:05:58.920 A private business can tell you to wear a shirt and shoes.

00:06:03.400 So I don't have any problem with any private business.

00:06:06.380 But sure as hell, the moment I'm fully vaccinated, I'm not going to obey my governor who tells me I've got to keep my mask on if I, what, walk down the sidewalk or something?

00:06:20.800 There's no way I'm going to obey the governor if he opposes the CDC recommendation.

00:06:26.480 That would be dumb.

00:06:28.120 Now, I get that each state is different, but not different enough.

00:06:31.960 Yeah, we're all different.

00:06:34.580 We're not that different.

00:06:36.780 So there has to be a point where the public leads.

00:06:41.120 Because the government is not a good entity to do it.

00:06:45.920 The government's incentive is maximum safety.

00:06:52.420 Whereas a human being's incentive is maximum life, which might mean a little less safety, cleverly chosen.

00:07:01.480 So I don't think that we should depend on our government or really even force them to make the decision for us.

00:07:09.580 I think we just make the decision now.

00:07:12.420 Is everybody with me?

00:07:13.620 That at this point, now that the crisis part is, well, not quite over, but we're sort of on the border of the crisis part being over, you want your government to be in charge when it's a crisis.

00:07:30.020 Right?

00:07:31.140 You know, they're not perfect.

00:07:32.920 But your best bet in an emergency is to listen to the government.

00:07:37.640 Once the emergency is over, and we all have kind of similar information, their incentives and yours might not be aligned.

00:07:48.000 And yours matter more.

00:07:50.720 Right?

00:07:51.580 Once we're out of the crisis, if your individual citizen opinion differs from your government, I back you, the citizen.

00:08:02.680 Because your government is the wrong entity to judge whether your safety versus your life decisions are right.

00:08:11.280 Once it's not a crisis.

00:08:13.120 If you're in a crisis, yes, let the government lead.

00:08:16.880 But now it's time for the government to get out of the way.

00:08:20.140 Or it's, you know, we're on the border of that point where the citizens just have to take it upon themselves, I think.

00:08:25.880 I think we just have to make it a fact by the way we act.

00:08:29.720 So it wouldn't matter if you had mask mandates if nobody put on a mask.

00:08:35.880 It's not like they could enforce it.

00:08:37.940 If everybody just threw away their mask all at once, that would be it.

00:08:43.240 So don't imagine that the government has control over this.

00:08:47.320 You, the citizens, have complete control from about this point on.

00:08:52.100 You did not have complete control in the past.

00:08:55.020 But from now on, you do have control.

00:08:58.020 I mean, it's returning to you.

00:09:00.880 And those people who, this is another time to check your predictions.

00:09:04.800 Were you one of the people who thought that the government was going to make you wear masks forever, no matter what?

00:09:11.080 Did you ever think that?

00:09:13.620 Because if you did, I don't think that was a good prediction.

00:09:17.780 And I feel like a lot of people were saying it.

00:09:19.940 And I kept thinking to myself, no, I'm pretty sure this is temporary.

00:09:26.520 You know, you still hear people saying that we'll have to wear masks forever or under certain situations forever.

00:09:33.700 I don't think so.

00:09:35.740 So I think this is going just the way we wanted it to.

00:09:40.320 Now, of course, you'll still need masks for travel for a while.

00:09:43.840 And I guess there was a situation in which a number of the Yankees baseball team got infected despite all being vaccinated.

00:09:56.860 So a number of the people who played for the Yankees had the J&J one-shot vaccination, but have since become infected.

00:10:07.880 Now, there's no evidence that I think most of them had no symptoms.

00:10:12.920 One might have had a little bit.

00:10:14.060 So they all seem perfectly safe, which is the whole point of the vaccination.

00:10:18.860 So the vaccination is working.

00:10:20.440 That's the good news.

00:10:23.820 But it is clear now, you know, all doubt has been removed, that apparently you can catch the virus fairly easily, even if you have the vaccination.

00:10:38.140 But don't you want to know if that applies to all the vaccinations?

00:10:41.880 Because the Yankees all had the J&J, the one-shot vaccination, which we know to be a little less powerful, but powerful enough to keep you from dying.

00:10:52.960 So if the Yankees had had the Moderna or the Pfizer, would they have been just as infected after getting vaccinated?

00:11:01.120 Don't know.

00:11:02.000 But every time we hear about one of these people getting infected after vaccination, such as Bill Maher, apparently Bill Maher.

00:11:09.480 And by the way, is it possible to go through a Friday without Bill Maher being in the headlines?

00:11:20.060 When was the last Friday there was not a headline about Bill Maher?

00:11:25.660 What's going on with that?

00:11:28.360 I feel like it's telling us something, right?

00:11:30.720 Because there are a lot of political pundits, but why is Bill Maher always in the news on Friday?

00:11:38.380 I mean, his show comes on Friday, so that's the trigger for it.

00:11:42.400 But is he so newsworthy that every Friday he's going to be like a political statement?

00:11:49.320 And here's the answer.

00:11:51.060 Yes.

00:11:51.720 Yes, he is.

00:11:52.880 He is exactly that newsworthy.

00:11:54.860 And the reason he's newsworthy is that he's simply not easily identifiable with fully hypnotized on the left or fully hypnotized on the right.

00:12:08.900 He's carved out a unique position where he can follow the science or the logic as best he can.

00:12:16.500 Now, of course, I've disagreed with Bill Maher on a number of topics over the years.

00:12:21.240 So I'm not saying he always gets it right according to me, as if my judgment is the final word on things.

00:12:29.120 But I do think he's carved out a special place in America as a person who intends to tell the truth and has some capability to do it.

00:12:41.560 Because he does seem a little bit resistant to cognitive dissonance.

00:12:46.220 Not completely, because none of us are completely free from confirmation bias or cognitive dissonance.

00:12:53.640 It's not a thing a person can do.

00:12:55.640 You can't be free of that.

00:12:57.620 But he is freer than most.

00:12:59.800 And I think part of the reason you can be free is if you have a little bit of history of taking positions on each side,

00:13:07.780 that your cognitive dissonance isn't going to be triggered by being locked into an opinion you're unwilling to change.

00:13:14.940 So, speaking of predictions, I thought this would be a good time, now that we've got a few months of Biden,

00:13:27.760 so that we've got a sense of Biden at this point, wouldn't you say?

00:13:31.400 I don't know if what Biden has done so far will be perfectly predictive of what he does for the rest of his presidency,

00:13:39.820 however long that lasts.

00:13:40.940 But we've got a good sense of it now, and I would say this would be a good time to go back and check your Trump-related predictions

00:13:49.420 for how he would do in office, then what would happen after he left office,

00:13:54.880 and then how Biden would do in office.

00:13:58.960 How are your predictions?

00:14:01.220 Without even talking about any details yet, in the comments,

00:14:04.960 how many of you feel that your predictions were relatively accurate?

00:14:10.880 You know, nobody's going to get every topic.

00:14:13.540 But do you think that what you thought Trump would do, he largely did?

00:14:18.740 And do you think that the way Biden is performing is largely what you expected?

00:14:25.280 Let's see your predictions.

00:14:26.920 My prediction about your predictions is that cognitive dissonance will cause everybody

00:14:35.320 to believe they were accurate.

00:14:40.480 So as you're all telling me how accurate you were,

00:14:44.680 oh, actually somebody said 50-50.

00:14:47.200 So whoever just said 50-50,

00:14:50.080 you might be the most aware person who's answering this question.

00:14:53.960 And not because your predictions were only 50-50,

00:15:00.540 but because you know that.

00:15:03.320 How many people here were right half of the time

00:15:06.160 and are also aware of it?

00:15:09.980 Very rare.

00:15:11.260 So whoever said they were right only about 50% of the time,

00:15:15.380 you're operating probably on a higher level of awareness

00:15:18.840 than a lot of the rest of the public.

00:15:21.180 Because most of us, and I'm definitely in this category,

00:15:25.460 most of us think we got it about 90%.

00:15:27.920 Right?

00:15:29.860 And we even had different predictions.

00:15:32.520 I'll bet if you asked the biggest Trump hater,

00:15:36.980 were your predictions correct?

00:15:38.700 They would say, oh, yeah, totally my predictions were correct.

00:15:42.780 He colluded with Russia, which didn't happen.

00:15:46.040 He said that Nazis in Charlottesville were fine people,

00:15:49.640 which literally didn't happen.

00:15:51.680 It was a hoax.

00:15:52.700 He told us to drink bleach, which didn't happen.

00:15:56.420 So you see where I'm going, right?

00:15:58.220 Both the left and the right think their predictions are accurate.

00:16:01.620 Because the fake news will tell everybody they got it right.

00:16:04.780 And then your memory will give you cognitive dissonance

00:16:11.000 and rewrite your memories.

00:16:13.080 But let me ask you this specifically.

00:16:16.920 How many Democrats believed that once Trump was out of office,

00:16:21.060 there was one thing you knew for sure?

00:16:23.820 He was in deep, deep legal trouble.

00:16:26.960 Right?

00:16:27.760 Was there anybody on the left?

00:16:29.780 Anybody?

00:16:30.260 Was there even one person who was anti-Trump?

00:16:35.020 Literally even one person who believed that he would still be a free man

00:16:39.980 a few months after leaving office?

00:16:42.560 And indeed, we heard today that there was some move to get a hold of,

00:16:50.520 let's see, apparently I'm not good at making notes

00:16:54.860 because I didn't write that one down.

00:16:56.220 But in the Trump world, there's apparently one of the employees

00:17:02.200 of the Trump organization, they're looking into some payments

00:17:06.900 about a school or something.

00:17:09.240 And I'm thinking to myself, if we're hearing a leak

00:17:12.860 about somebody who works in the Trump organization,

00:17:16.260 not Trump himself and not a family member,

00:17:18.820 just somebody high in the organization,

00:17:20.640 who's being investigated for some specific thing that they did,

00:17:24.060 and maybe not even Trump himself.

00:17:28.380 But you've heard of it, right?

00:17:31.040 But what you haven't heard is anything that sounds like a smoking gun

00:17:34.860 that would put Trump in jail or even in great legal peril.

00:17:39.600 Have you?

00:17:41.060 Doesn't it seem to me that it wasn't long ago

00:17:44.520 that all the smart people on the left were saying,

00:17:47.040 well, there's this banking thing,

00:17:49.440 and surely they will find it is taxes, right?

00:17:55.500 How long do you have to wait

00:17:57.260 before you can say there's no legal,

00:18:03.520 at least no fatal risk for Trump legally?

00:18:07.000 I feel as if all of his legal problems were either fake

00:18:12.800 or they were things that could be handled

00:18:15.960 in the normal course of a rich person

00:18:17.800 defending themselves against legal claims.

00:18:23.040 And don't you believe that you would have heard

00:18:25.900 a credible leak by now

00:18:28.240 if they had found some kind of, like,

00:18:30.860 really good stuff to get Trump in trouble?

00:18:34.240 But you haven't, have you?

00:18:36.340 Now, how long do you wait

00:18:37.760 before you can conclude that means something?

00:18:41.100 I don't know.

00:18:42.080 In the legal world, maybe you have to wait a year, right?

00:18:45.260 But how long has the district of,

00:18:48.480 was it the Southern District of New York,

00:18:50.840 how long has the state of New York

00:18:53.680 been looking into Trump?

00:18:56.800 A year?

00:18:59.400 Give me an estimate.

00:19:00.660 It's been a year, right?

00:19:01.620 Or more than a year.

00:19:03.320 And not a single leak,

00:19:05.660 no arrest,

00:19:08.280 and then when one leak does come out,

00:19:11.340 it's a leak about somebody else.

00:19:12.940 It's as if they found somebody else's problem,

00:19:16.640 but they didn't find Trump's.

00:19:18.440 Although I think Trump is part of that story,

00:19:20.200 but it's not clear how.

00:19:22.540 So there's something,

00:19:24.140 somebody says at least two years

00:19:25.380 that they've been investigating.

00:19:28.300 Did you,

00:19:28.920 if you predicted he would be in jail by now,

00:19:31.120 I guess you were wrong.

00:19:32.480 And if you predicted he would be in deep legal trouble,

00:19:35.360 I don't know.

00:19:36.880 So I feel as if we'd know, right?

00:19:40.420 If they were closing in on them,

00:19:42.360 and you know how the CNN always reports

00:19:44.300 that the walls are closing in,

00:19:46.580 if any of that were happening,

00:19:49.220 they'd be reporting it, right?

00:19:51.400 Because they love that stuff.

00:19:52.440 They'd be making it up,

00:19:53.660 even if it were not happening.

00:19:56.320 All right.

00:19:56.640 Oh, I did make a note of it.

00:20:01.060 So the prosecutors,

00:20:03.740 the Wall Street Journal said

00:20:04.460 the prosecutors subpoenaed

00:20:05.900 a Manhattan private school

00:20:07.480 for information relating to

00:20:09.080 Trump Organization chief financial officer

00:20:12.080 and his two grandchildren.

00:20:14.460 Does that sound like Trump himself is in trouble?

00:20:17.600 It really doesn't, does it?

00:20:18.980 Sounds like they just found some unrelated thing.

00:20:22.080 All right, here's the big other story.

00:20:23.780 Israel, of course, is responding to Hamas's

00:20:27.180 more than a thousand rockets

00:20:29.340 fired at Gaza into Israel.

00:20:32.500 And I don't know if you saw this news,

00:20:35.320 but reportedly,

00:20:37.120 and I don't think you can believe

00:20:38.680 any news that comes out of a war zone,

00:20:41.120 but let's say it's true for conversation.

00:20:43.740 As long as you accept the premise

00:20:45.600 that all reporting during the beginning

00:20:48.800 of a military action,

00:20:51.240 the odds of any of this reporting

00:20:53.900 being accurate,

00:20:55.480 kind of low.

00:20:56.900 But let's say it is.

00:20:59.400 Reportedly,

00:21:00.480 the Israeli defense forces

00:21:02.380 tricked Hamas

00:21:03.420 into believing there was going to be

00:21:05.480 a ground invasion.

00:21:07.660 Now, apparently,

00:21:08.480 in the event of a ground invasion,

00:21:11.260 Israel was aware

00:21:12.360 that the Hamas militants

00:21:15.420 would flood into this

00:21:16.880 major network of tunnels

00:21:18.740 that they have

00:21:19.500 and that they would be able

00:21:21.040 to come out of the tunnels

00:21:22.040 to attack, you know,

00:21:23.620 any tanks that were coming

00:21:24.980 on a ground invasion.

00:21:27.380 And so Israel faked Hamas

00:21:29.520 into filling the tunnels

00:21:31.140 with their fighters,

00:21:32.460 and then they bombed the tunnels,

00:21:34.420 and they didn't invade.

00:21:36.320 So the invasion was a head fake.

00:21:39.220 One of the better head fakes

00:21:40.820 I've ever heard of

00:21:42.260 in the military world,

00:21:44.320 if it's true.

00:21:45.180 Again,

00:21:46.620 I would assign a credibility

00:21:48.660 to this whole set of stories

00:21:50.480 about Israel and the tunnels,

00:21:53.500 50% maybe,

00:21:55.280 maximum,

00:21:56.460 60% tops,

00:21:58.440 just because it's a war zone

00:21:59.900 and you don't get

00:22:00.860 accurate information.

00:22:02.200 But let's say it's true.

00:22:03.700 Now, here's the

00:22:04.800 morbid

00:22:07.520 but interesting facts about this.

00:22:10.940 Number one,

00:22:12.320 when you bomb

00:22:13.200 a network of tunnels,

00:22:15.020 do they all collapse

00:22:16.460 and then kill

00:22:17.400 the people in them

00:22:18.340 instantly?

00:22:19.760 I don't think so,

00:22:21.260 right?

00:22:22.260 Isn't it more likely

00:22:23.380 that maybe

00:22:24.060 fighters would be

00:22:26.280 trapped in a tunnel

00:22:27.300 that had been

00:22:28.500 partially collapsed?

00:22:29.920 You know,

00:22:30.100 maybe they couldn't get out,

00:22:31.500 but they're not

00:22:32.460 immediately dead.

00:22:34.380 Probably, right?

00:22:36.000 How many of those

00:22:37.380 people who would be

00:22:39.700 presumably trapped

00:22:40.820 in a collapsed tunnel

00:22:42.660 but still alive,

00:22:44.820 how many of them

00:22:45.700 had their cell phones

00:22:46.560 with them?

00:22:48.780 And if they had

00:22:49.740 their cell phones

00:22:50.380 with them,

00:22:51.220 they'd be using them,

00:22:52.500 right?

00:22:52.960 As in,

00:22:53.920 hey,

00:22:54.180 get me out of here,

00:22:55.000 start digging.

00:22:56.480 At that point,

00:22:58.300 can Israel just put

00:22:59.760 some surveillance

00:23:00.480 above where they think

00:23:02.160 the tunnels are

00:23:03.200 and just watch

00:23:04.560 where the digging is?

00:23:06.280 Or,

00:23:07.240 better yet,

00:23:07.980 can they just

00:23:09.380 detect exactly

00:23:10.280 where the phone is

00:23:11.220 and bomb it again?

00:23:14.260 Because I would,

00:23:15.080 you know,

00:23:15.580 it's,

00:23:16.140 yeah,

00:23:17.260 they would suffocate

00:23:18.020 eventually,

00:23:18.820 but they would still

00:23:19.720 have time to use

00:23:20.360 their cell phones

00:23:20.960 if they were alive

00:23:21.760 and if they had them.

00:23:22.880 So it's possible

00:23:23.540 that they don't bring

00:23:24.240 cell phones to war.

00:23:26.480 Right?

00:23:27.960 But I think even

00:23:29.080 our soldiers

00:23:29.660 bring cell phones,

00:23:30.640 don't they?

00:23:31.400 I don't know

00:23:31.940 the answer to that.

00:23:32.600 Maybe they don't.

00:23:34.000 Maybe they don't.

00:23:35.720 But, you know,

00:23:36.300 obviously they use them

00:23:37.160 off duty.

00:23:39.560 Now,

00:23:40.060 here's the other

00:23:40.660 interesting thing.

00:23:41.580 Whenever there's,

00:23:42.440 somebody gets killed

00:23:43.380 on the Hamas side,

00:23:45.900 there's a big burial

00:23:46.620 and everything.

00:23:48.200 But,

00:23:48.800 and this is a real

00:23:49.480 morbid thought.

00:23:50.980 If you kill people

00:23:52.300 in tunnels,

00:23:53.600 if you kill people

00:23:55.720 in tunnels,

00:23:56.760 there's no body.

00:23:57.880 Israel found a way

00:24:02.000 to kill mass numbers

00:24:04.100 of Hamas terrorists

00:24:06.000 without ever

00:24:07.920 anybody filming a body.

00:24:10.500 I'm guessing.

00:24:12.240 Right?

00:24:13.540 So,

00:24:14.560 in terms of persuasion,

00:24:17.040 Israel used persuasion

00:24:18.660 to get them into the tunnels

00:24:19.980 to bomb them.

00:24:21.820 And,

00:24:22.360 they get the second benefit

00:24:23.920 of persuasion

00:24:24.620 that there are no photographs

00:24:25.760 of dead bodies.

00:24:26.600 And if they ever

00:24:29.180 showed their dead bodies,

00:24:30.460 they wouldn't,

00:24:31.040 they would necessarily,

00:24:31.760 they'd probably look like

00:24:32.680 just somebody asleep

00:24:34.840 because they,

00:24:35.680 all their body parts

00:24:37.020 would be intact

00:24:37.780 if they died in a tunnel.

00:24:40.720 So,

00:24:41.800 this might end up,

00:24:43.920 you know,

00:24:44.060 I think we'll learn

00:24:44.640 more about this,

00:24:45.240 but this could easily

00:24:45.960 end up as one of the

00:24:47.000 great military

00:24:47.820 moves of all time.

00:24:49.940 as morbid as it is.

00:24:55.320 So,

00:24:56.000 Rasmussen is

00:24:56.820 reporting again

00:24:58.260 another situation

00:24:59.600 in which

00:25:00.100 watching CNN

00:25:01.600 and MSNBC

00:25:02.480 makes you dumber.

00:25:04.380 Now,

00:25:04.960 to be fair,

00:25:06.320 if they had asked

00:25:07.520 about other topics,

00:25:09.300 such as,

00:25:10.600 let's say,

00:25:11.140 support for QAnon,

00:25:13.520 probably more Republicans

00:25:15.020 would have support

00:25:15.960 for QAnon

00:25:16.760 than for Democrats.

00:25:17.940 So,

00:25:18.760 you have to,

00:25:19.200 you know,

00:25:19.540 just be aware

00:25:20.280 that the questions

00:25:21.160 that are being asked

00:25:22.160 skew in one direction.

00:25:24.240 At some point,

00:25:24.800 we'll probably see

00:25:25.540 some questions

00:25:26.940 in the other direction.

00:25:27.880 But here's the outcome.

00:25:29.440 Apparently,

00:25:29.940 nearly a quarter

00:25:30.920 of CNN viewers

00:25:32.360 and 19%

00:25:36.360 of MSNBC viewers

00:25:37.800 think cops

00:25:39.300 shot more than

00:25:40.320 500 unarmed

00:25:41.620 black suspects

00:25:42.640 last year.

00:25:44.080 But only 9%

00:25:45.660 of Fox News viewers

00:25:46.980 think so.

00:25:47.940 It's a pretty big difference.

00:25:50.180 So,

00:25:50.440 if you watch

00:25:50.940 CNN or MSNBC,

00:25:53.700 you would have

00:25:54.460 something like

00:25:56.440 a 10 times

00:25:58.080 inaccurate

00:25:59.940 view

00:26:01.120 of what's happening

00:26:02.020 with police

00:26:02.760 and black

00:26:04.100 unarmed Americans.

00:26:06.460 10 times.

00:26:08.200 You wouldn't even

00:26:08.960 be close.

00:26:10.780 But Fox viewers,

00:26:12.840 pretty accurate.

00:26:13.600 think of that.

00:26:17.760 A quarter of CNN

00:26:18.700 viewers

00:26:19.240 think that

00:26:20.440 cops are shooting

00:26:21.420 500 unarmed

00:26:22.640 black suspects

00:26:23.960 a year.

00:26:25.840 The number

00:26:26.580 is closer to 50.

00:26:27.840 So,

00:26:28.200 one-tenth of that.

00:26:32.880 Let's see.

00:26:33.560 And I was wondering,

00:26:36.820 does the mental

00:26:37.460 health industry

00:26:38.360 recognize

00:26:40.160 journalistic abuse

00:26:41.520 as a

00:26:43.100 sort of

00:26:43.880 a victim

00:26:44.400 category?

00:26:45.640 You know,

00:26:46.000 a mental health

00:26:46.640 problem?

00:26:47.960 Imagine you're

00:26:49.800 a viewer

00:26:50.180 of CNN

00:26:51.380 or MSNBC

00:26:52.340 versus

00:26:53.720 being a viewer

00:26:54.540 of,

00:26:55.280 let's say,

00:26:56.200 Fox News.

00:26:56.700 If you were

00:26:58.660 to believe

00:26:59.200 the opinion

00:27:00.300 people on

00:27:00.980 Fox News

00:27:01.600 that maybe

00:27:03.020 George Soros

00:27:04.160 is,

00:27:04.740 you know,

00:27:05.360 going to

00:27:06.020 have control

00:27:07.040 of everything

00:27:07.600 and

00:27:08.260 it's all

00:27:10.240 a big

00:27:10.600 plot

00:27:12.260 or something,

00:27:13.400 you might

00:27:14.140 be a little

00:27:14.520 worried,

00:27:15.640 but you

00:27:16.260 probably

00:27:16.560 wouldn't spend

00:27:17.120 much of your

00:27:17.660 day worrying

00:27:18.380 about it.

00:27:19.420 Like,

00:27:19.680 it wouldn't

00:27:20.040 intrude on

00:27:20.660 the rest

00:27:20.960 of your

00:27:21.160 day.

00:27:21.500 You'd

00:27:21.660 probably

00:27:21.820 just be

00:27:22.200 thinking

00:27:22.480 about it

00:27:22.820 when you're

00:27:23.060 talking

00:27:23.320 politics.

00:27:25.140 But if

00:27:25.640 you watched

00:27:26.080 CNN

00:27:26.560 and MSNBC,

00:27:28.300 you would

00:27:29.100 believe that

00:27:29.620 you could

00:27:29.900 be dead

00:27:30.280 any minute.

00:27:31.500 You would

00:27:31.800 think that

00:27:32.200 the climate

00:27:33.280 is going

00:27:33.740 to kill

00:27:34.020 you or

00:27:34.540 your

00:27:34.740 grandchildren.

00:27:36.640 You would

00:27:37.300 think that

00:27:37.860 if you

00:27:38.340 take a ride

00:27:39.280 in your

00:27:39.540 car and

00:27:40.280 your skin

00:27:40.780 is brown,

00:27:41.540 your odds

00:27:41.860 of getting

00:27:42.120 shot is

00:27:42.740 pretty high.

00:27:45.460 So,

00:27:46.100 and of

00:27:46.600 course,

00:27:46.840 you would

00:27:47.100 have thought

00:27:47.480 that Trump

00:27:48.340 was going

00:27:48.820 to start

00:27:49.280 a nuclear

00:27:49.760 war.

00:27:51.300 You would

00:27:51.840 have thought

00:27:52.220 he was

00:27:52.720 going to

00:27:53.000 round up

00:27:53.520 gay people

00:27:54.140 and put

00:27:54.480 them in

00:27:54.820 concentration

00:27:55.360 camps.

00:27:56.040 I mean,

00:27:56.400 nothing even

00:27:56.980 close to

00:27:58.160 reality.

00:27:59.400 But you

00:27:59.760 would have

00:28:00.020 thought that.

00:28:01.380 And those

00:28:01.940 are the

00:28:02.120 kind of

00:28:02.420 fears that

00:28:02.840 you actually

00:28:03.420 fear day

00:28:04.160 to day.

00:28:05.480 You know,

00:28:05.820 the world

00:28:06.560 is surrounded

00:28:07.020 by white

00:28:07.460 supremacists.

00:28:08.180 I think I

00:28:08.580 see one.

00:28:09.620 Those are

00:28:10.100 things you

00:28:10.560 worry about

00:28:10.980 in the

00:28:11.360 moment.

00:28:12.580 I feel

00:28:13.140 as if

00:28:13.460 there's a

00:28:13.840 difference

00:28:14.260 in what

00:28:15.140 conservatives

00:28:17.020 worry about

00:28:18.120 that isn't

00:28:19.660 true.

00:28:20.740 So if

00:28:21.180 we just

00:28:21.740 take the

00:28:22.100 QAnon

00:28:22.500 example,

00:28:23.260 or George

00:28:23.820 Soros,

00:28:24.700 but you

00:28:25.120 don't like

00:28:25.480 that example

00:28:25.980 probably.

00:28:27.000 There are

00:28:27.540 things that

00:28:27.980 the right

00:28:28.300 believes that

00:28:28.860 are clearly

00:28:29.240 not true,

00:28:30.440 but they

00:28:31.080 also are

00:28:31.760 things that

00:28:32.200 don't kill

00:28:32.640 you immediately.

00:28:33.980 They're

00:28:34.100 sort of like

00:28:34.580 conceptual

00:28:35.520 system shifts

00:28:37.020 over time.

00:28:39.300 But whereas

00:28:40.040 the left

00:28:40.560 is worried

00:28:41.620 about stuff

00:28:42.120 that will

00:28:42.380 kill you

00:28:42.660 right now,

00:28:43.400 or if not

00:28:44.940 now,

00:28:45.300 it's going

00:28:45.580 to get your

00:28:45.900 grandchildren.

00:28:46.340 but it's

00:28:47.040 sort of

00:28:47.340 specific and

00:28:48.900 dangerous.

00:28:49.880 That's got to

00:28:50.460 be a mental

00:28:51.140 health problem.

00:28:51.860 There's no

00:28:52.180 way around

00:28:52.560 that.

00:28:56.500 There's

00:28:57.020 news out of

00:28:57.520 the Arizona

00:28:58.180 audit that

00:28:59.380 I don't yet

00:29:00.080 believe,

00:29:01.140 but the

00:29:01.820 report is

00:29:03.600 that some

00:29:03.960 major database

00:29:04.840 was deleted

00:29:06.140 before the

00:29:06.860 audit people

00:29:07.520 could get

00:29:07.960 their hands

00:29:08.340 on it.

00:29:09.260 Now,

00:29:09.600 if that

00:29:10.040 happened,

00:29:11.080 and if it

00:29:11.580 was intentional,

00:29:12.960 it probably

00:29:13.360 means something.

00:29:14.720 But do you

00:29:15.880 think anybody

00:29:16.440 would ever

00:29:16.900 go to jail

00:29:17.680 for deleting

00:29:18.960 a database

00:29:19.720 that shouldn't

00:29:21.940 have been

00:29:22.260 deleted?

00:29:23.820 Probably not.

00:29:25.300 Because the

00:29:25.940 defense would

00:29:26.580 be easy.

00:29:27.820 The defense

00:29:28.360 would be,

00:29:29.000 oops,

00:29:30.240 right?

00:29:30.960 It's like,

00:29:31.380 oops,

00:29:31.940 I forgot that

00:29:32.960 this was one

00:29:33.540 of the machines

00:29:34.160 that we were

00:29:34.940 supposed to

00:29:35.320 keep the

00:29:35.640 data on.

00:29:36.620 Or,

00:29:37.400 oops,

00:29:38.060 I told Bob

00:29:39.220 to take care

00:29:40.300 of the machines,

00:29:41.300 but what I

00:29:42.000 meant was to

00:29:42.680 keep them

00:29:43.100 safe.

00:29:44.040 When he

00:29:44.740 heard take

00:29:45.300 care of the

00:29:45.720 machines,

00:29:46.220 he thought

00:29:46.580 he would

00:29:46.860 do the

00:29:47.160 normal

00:29:47.460 maintenance,

00:29:48.300 which included

00:29:49.000 wiping the

00:29:49.580 database.

00:29:50.860 So nobody's

00:29:51.860 going to go

00:29:52.160 to jail,

00:29:53.460 right?

00:29:53.780 There's no

00:29:54.140 crime here.

00:29:55.060 Why wouldn't

00:29:55.860 they delete

00:29:56.400 it?

00:29:58.180 Right?

00:29:58.780 If anything

00:30:00.340 was on there

00:30:01.000 that might

00:30:01.400 have looked

00:30:01.680 suspicious,

00:30:03.120 why wouldn't

00:30:03.680 you delete

00:30:04.160 it?

00:30:04.900 There's just

00:30:05.340 not going

00:30:05.680 to be a

00:30:05.940 penalty for

00:30:06.500 it.

00:30:06.660 I can't

00:30:07.020 imagine there

00:30:07.780 would be

00:30:07.980 enough evidence

00:30:08.640 to put

00:30:09.040 somebody in

00:30:09.460 jail for it.

00:30:10.480 I think

00:30:10.860 they'll just

00:30:11.200 say,

00:30:11.460 oh,

00:30:11.740 big mistake,

00:30:12.740 sorry,

00:30:13.560 oops,

00:30:13.960 bureaucracy,

00:30:16.480 things aren't

00:30:17.440 that clear.

00:30:20.900 And then

00:30:21.440 we have,

00:30:22.500 apparently the

00:30:23.660 auditors are

00:30:24.460 also asking

00:30:25.100 Dominion for

00:30:25.880 their passwords

00:30:26.580 to some

00:30:27.200 machines,

00:30:27.980 and Dominion

00:30:28.880 is saying

00:30:29.340 no.

00:30:30.740 It says

00:30:31.340 that's too

00:30:32.060 far,

00:30:32.780 and they

00:30:33.700 couldn't give

00:30:34.180 them passwords

00:30:34.980 to machines,

00:30:35.820 to which I

00:30:36.600 say to

00:30:37.000 myself,

00:30:37.620 there's

00:30:38.140 something about

00:30:38.700 this story I

00:30:39.460 don't understand.

00:30:40.300 do all

00:30:42.040 the machines

00:30:42.520 have the

00:30:42.860 same password?

00:30:45.240 Somebody

00:30:45.760 says,

00:30:46.220 you are so

00:30:46.580 dead wrong

00:30:47.120 about Dominion.

00:30:48.260 I haven't

00:30:48.960 talked about

00:30:49.420 Dominion yet.

00:30:52.180 What do you

00:30:52.820 think I'm

00:30:53.120 wrong about?

00:30:54.100 Come back

00:30:54.780 here.

00:30:55.880 Come back

00:30:56.440 here.

00:30:58.740 All right,

00:30:59.060 L. Green

00:30:59.400 says,

00:30:59.820 you are so

00:31:00.240 dead wrong

00:31:00.820 about Dominion.

00:31:02.360 Do you

00:31:03.000 know how

00:31:03.440 often people

00:31:05.780 who tell me

00:31:06.380 I'm wrong

00:31:06.960 can accurately

00:31:08.280 describe my

00:31:09.240 opinion?

00:31:10.300 Almost

00:31:11.060 never.

00:31:12.280 Almost

00:31:12.580 never.

00:31:13.560 So L. Green,

00:31:14.500 I will

00:31:14.880 challenge you

00:31:15.580 to describe

00:31:17.260 my opinion

00:31:18.060 in just a

00:31:19.720 statement like

00:31:20.320 you believe

00:31:21.020 X and

00:31:22.820 then tell me

00:31:23.400 what's wrong

00:31:23.820 with it.

00:31:24.340 But start

00:31:25.260 with accurately

00:31:27.180 describing my

00:31:28.320 opinion.

00:31:28.820 You can't

00:31:29.280 do it.

00:31:30.320 You know

00:31:30.580 you can't

00:31:30.940 do it.

00:31:32.140 Right?

00:31:32.760 Try.

00:31:33.720 Just give it

00:31:34.180 a shot.

00:31:35.160 Just in a

00:31:35.760 sentence or

00:31:36.300 two,

00:31:36.700 what do you

00:31:37.060 think my

00:31:37.520 opinion was

00:31:38.220 that you're

00:31:38.680 disagreeing

00:31:39.220 with?

00:31:40.860 Yeah.

00:31:41.660 I can't

00:31:42.620 watch every

00:31:43.020 opinion go

00:31:43.520 by but if

00:31:43.980 anybody sees

00:31:44.600 it you will

00:31:46.400 know that

00:31:47.560 this is the

00:31:48.080 normal way

00:31:48.640 people debate.

00:31:49.920 They literally

00:31:50.660 hallucinate my

00:31:51.780 opinion and

00:31:52.800 then they get

00:31:53.260 pretty worked

00:31:53.780 up about how

00:31:54.400 wrong it is.

00:31:55.860 When was the

00:31:56.320 last time

00:31:56.760 somebody disagreed

00:31:57.900 with me who

00:31:59.180 also understood

00:32:00.320 what I was

00:32:00.880 saying?

00:32:02.560 Not a lot.

00:32:04.220 Not a lot.

00:32:05.700 Sure,

00:32:06.060 it happens.

00:32:06.460 but it's

00:32:06.960 very rare.

00:32:08.260 I would

00:32:08.520 say at

00:32:09.320 least 90%

00:32:10.360 of all the

00:32:11.020 people disagreeing

00:32:12.720 with me

00:32:13.080 can't state

00:32:15.400 my opinion

00:32:15.880 because I

00:32:17.380 tend to have

00:32:17.860 some nuance

00:32:18.560 that escapes

00:32:20.180 most political

00:32:21.960 punditry.

00:32:24.740 And here's

00:32:25.080 James Bond

00:32:26.020 says,

00:32:26.720 Scott's opinion

00:32:27.540 is a moving

00:32:28.180 target.

00:32:28.760 Now that's

00:32:29.100 the other

00:32:29.420 hallucination

00:32:30.120 because the

00:32:33.360 way cognitive

00:32:34.040 dissonance

00:32:34.540 works,

00:32:35.860 and if you

00:32:36.420 haven't seen

00:32:36.860 it in action,

00:32:38.740 it goes like

00:32:39.300 this.

00:32:43.480 I say the

00:32:44.760 sky is blue

00:32:45.880 and then you

00:32:47.520 say,

00:32:48.260 how can you

00:32:49.300 say the sky

00:32:50.120 is green?

00:32:51.940 And then I

00:32:52.500 say,

00:32:53.060 no, I didn't

00:32:53.500 say that.

00:32:54.300 I said the

00:32:55.220 sky is blue,

00:32:56.560 which you

00:32:57.700 agree with.

00:32:58.280 And then

00:32:59.780 because cognitive

00:33:00.920 dissonance

00:33:01.440 kicks in and

00:33:02.560 nobody can

00:33:03.080 believe that

00:33:03.620 they heard

00:33:04.200 green when I

00:33:05.360 said blue,

00:33:06.860 nobody can

00:33:07.560 process that

00:33:08.260 because that

00:33:08.580 would be their

00:33:08.980 mistake,

00:33:09.880 they immediately

00:33:10.840 imagine it

00:33:11.780 was a different

00:33:12.340 conversation.

00:33:14.200 Oh, well,

00:33:15.580 yes, maybe

00:33:16.160 you did say

00:33:16.720 the sky was

00:33:17.400 blue, but

00:33:18.300 why are you

00:33:18.900 saying it's

00:33:19.420 raining?

00:33:20.760 To which I

00:33:21.620 say, rain

00:33:22.720 was never

00:33:23.240 even in the

00:33:23.760 conversation.

00:33:25.280 I just

00:33:25.740 said the

00:33:26.120 sky was

00:33:26.540 blue.

00:33:27.440 You heard

00:33:27.920 it as

00:33:28.280 green when

00:33:29.500 I proved

00:33:30.040 to you

00:33:30.340 it's blue

00:33:30.840 and that

00:33:31.240 I said

00:33:31.600 blue, let's

00:33:32.120 say I have

00:33:32.440 a recording

00:33:32.900 or something,

00:33:34.220 you immediately

00:33:34.940 hallucinated

00:33:35.780 that I had

00:33:36.820 said it was

00:33:37.220 raining.

00:33:38.620 Now, does

00:33:39.680 that example

00:33:40.380 sound like,

00:33:42.600 you know,

00:33:43.760 not the

00:33:44.520 specific sky

00:33:45.260 example, but

00:33:46.160 you put

00:33:46.560 different content

00:33:47.280 in there.

00:33:48.000 Does that

00:33:48.400 sound like

00:33:48.800 something that

00:33:49.280 really happens?

00:33:50.780 Like in the

00:33:51.300 actual world,

00:33:52.740 will somebody's

00:33:54.260 memory be

00:33:54.880 rewritten that

00:33:56.020 quickly?

00:33:56.400 yes, yes,

00:34:00.440 and easily,

00:34:02.180 easily,

00:34:03.520 routinely,

00:34:04.640 and

00:34:05.120 continuously,

00:34:06.760 right?

00:34:07.660 That situation

00:34:08.640 is more like

00:34:10.220 the operating

00:34:10.860 system of

00:34:11.540 humans.

00:34:12.440 We do that

00:34:13.560 instantly, all

00:34:15.120 of us, every

00:34:16.300 one of us,

00:34:17.180 all the time.

00:34:19.400 We don't know

00:34:20.660 what other

00:34:21.020 people said

00:34:21.760 that, because

00:34:22.540 once we've

00:34:23.060 disagreed with

00:34:23.740 them, we

00:34:24.900 either stay

00:34:26.080 in our

00:34:26.400 illusion, or

00:34:27.660 they prove

00:34:28.200 us wrong, and

00:34:29.140 we just

00:34:29.460 spontaneously

00:34:29.980 create a new

00:34:30.920 illusion where

00:34:31.960 we were right

00:34:32.620 all along.

00:34:34.760 That's how

00:34:35.380 we're wired.

00:34:37.240 So, once

00:34:38.840 you realize

00:34:39.220 that, the

00:34:39.720 world is a

00:34:40.220 lot less

00:34:40.560 confusing.

00:34:41.320 So, this

00:34:47.260 question of

00:34:47.860 whether Fauci

00:34:48.720 supported gain

00:34:49.940 of function

00:34:50.820 research at

00:34:51.640 Wuhan, and

00:34:53.180 I tell you, this

00:34:54.320 is such a

00:34:54.800 frustrating story,

00:34:56.060 because the

00:34:56.780 way it's

00:34:57.120 reported is

00:34:57.860 so poor, that

00:34:59.500 we consumers

00:35:00.640 really don't

00:35:01.560 know what

00:35:02.100 that's about.

00:35:03.280 You kind of

00:35:03.900 think you do,

00:35:05.100 but you

00:35:05.660 don't.

00:35:06.420 Here's what I

00:35:07.260 think is

00:35:07.820 happening.

00:35:08.200 I feel as

00:35:09.760 though there

00:35:10.160 is some

00:35:10.520 evidence that

00:35:11.760 Fauci or

00:35:12.780 the NIH, or

00:35:14.040 he may have

00:35:15.080 supported them,

00:35:16.320 they did

00:35:17.000 reportedly, and

00:35:19.140 again, I'm not

00:35:19.780 the expert here,

00:35:20.580 so put a

00:35:21.660 little doubt

00:35:22.760 about anything

00:35:23.320 I say on

00:35:23.800 this topic, but

00:35:25.080 reportedly, there

00:35:26.860 was some

00:35:27.320 support for

00:35:27.980 gain of

00:35:28.500 function, but

00:35:30.020 not for the

00:35:30.620 coronavirus, I

00:35:31.600 mean, not

00:35:31.900 for this, you

00:35:32.760 know, COVID, or

00:35:34.080 whatever it is,

00:35:34.720 not for this

00:35:35.320 specific virus,

00:35:36.200 and it

00:35:38.540 might not

00:35:39.020 have been a

00:35:39.440 gain of

00:35:39.820 function for

00:35:42.320 military use.

00:35:44.320 It might have

00:35:44.740 been gain of

00:35:45.300 function just

00:35:45.920 to improve it

00:35:46.780 for, you

00:35:47.800 know, regular

00:35:48.440 purposes or

00:35:49.660 research or

00:35:50.400 something.

00:35:51.480 So I feel

00:35:52.620 as though the

00:35:54.280 people saying

00:35:54.960 that Fauci did

00:35:56.140 support gain of

00:35:57.400 function are

00:35:58.880 probably correct.

00:36:00.760 At the same

00:36:01.680 time when he

00:36:02.260 says absolutely

00:36:03.260 not, he's

00:36:05.360 probably correct.

00:36:06.760 I believe we've

00:36:07.900 hit this weird

00:36:08.880 situation where

00:36:10.380 both sides are

00:36:11.260 saying completely

00:36:12.060 true things, but

00:36:13.620 they're not really

00:36:14.180 on the same

00:36:14.620 topic.

00:36:15.760 And I think

00:36:16.960 that's the

00:36:17.460 illusion.

00:36:18.340 I think the

00:36:18.820 illusion is they're

00:36:19.620 on the same

00:36:20.080 topic, and

00:36:21.260 they're not

00:36:21.540 really on the

00:36:22.120 same topic.

00:36:26.480 So check that

00:36:27.600 out for me.

00:36:28.080 Give me a

00:36:28.480 fact check on

00:36:29.120 that.

00:36:29.460 I think that

00:36:30.700 there was gain

00:36:33.160 of function for

00:36:34.200 a different

00:36:34.680 virus, so

00:36:36.480 when Fauci

00:36:37.000 denies it,

00:36:37.820 he's denying

00:36:38.400 it for the

00:36:39.000 coronavirus, this

00:36:40.760 version of

00:36:41.320 it, I

00:36:43.300 think.

00:36:45.080 Which doesn't

00:36:45.920 mean there's

00:36:46.280 anything wrong

00:36:46.780 with Fauci.

00:36:47.320 So my

00:36:48.480 hypothesis would

00:36:50.420 clear Fauci

00:36:51.600 while also

00:36:53.860 making Rand

00:36:54.640 Paul's accusation

00:36:55.620 true.

00:36:57.020 It's just they

00:36:57.840 weren't on the

00:36:58.240 same topic, I

00:36:59.360 think.

00:36:59.700 That's my

00:37:00.740 working hypothesis

00:37:02.320 at the

00:37:02.740 moment.

00:37:06.440 And I

00:37:07.380 see some

00:37:08.240 excellent

00:37:08.880 comments, for

00:37:09.760 example, wrong.

00:37:12.620 Wrong.

00:37:14.020 Now, you

00:37:15.240 might be new

00:37:15.800 to me, but

00:37:16.920 when people's

00:37:17.600 comment is

00:37:18.340 just wrong,

00:37:20.200 without any

00:37:21.180 explanation or

00:37:22.980 even detail of

00:37:23.860 which one is

00:37:24.340 wrong, I

00:37:26.160 usually block

00:37:26.760 you.

00:37:26.980 but I

00:37:27.560 feel it's

00:37:27.900 fair to

00:37:28.240 give you a

00:37:28.760 warning this

00:37:30.060 time, because

00:37:30.740 I don't

00:37:31.000 mention it

00:37:31.400 a lot.

00:37:33.300 Somebody says

00:37:34.020 no, it's

00:37:34.400 about funding.

00:37:38.740 Release of

00:37:39.380 the virus was

00:37:40.120 perfectly timed,

00:37:41.900 somebody says.

00:37:43.140 Was it?

00:37:45.700 I've heard

00:37:46.380 some people

00:37:47.040 say that the

00:37:47.840 CDC allowing

00:37:49.280 the vaccinated

00:37:50.080 to take off

00:37:50.940 their masks in

00:37:51.600 most situations

00:37:52.260 was maybe a

00:37:54.520 White House

00:37:55.620 trick to

00:37:56.600 divert from

00:37:59.560 some of the

00:38:00.020 other things

00:38:00.460 they're saying.

00:38:03.280 Ashley, you're

00:38:04.120 correct.

00:38:10.160 I'm a

00:38:10.900 benevolent host.

00:38:14.080 I suppose

00:38:14.940 that means

00:38:15.320 something.

00:38:17.940 All right.

00:38:18.420 Oh, yes.

00:38:21.860 Oh, yes.

00:38:22.520 Somebody says

00:38:23.020 it's curious

00:38:23.560 how the

00:38:24.100 Hong Kong

00:38:24.960 protests

00:38:26.680 were squashed

00:38:28.140 by the

00:38:28.560 virus.

00:38:29.940 Yes, that

00:38:30.380 is interesting,

00:38:31.140 isn't it?

00:38:32.920 Was that

00:38:33.660 China getting

00:38:34.320 lucky?

00:38:36.180 You know, I'm

00:38:36.860 not on the

00:38:37.380 side that says

00:38:38.300 that China

00:38:39.040 intentionally

00:38:39.940 released a

00:38:40.740 virus.

00:38:42.280 It's

00:38:42.640 certainly

00:38:44.120 interesting to

00:38:45.540 look at,

00:38:46.120 and you

00:38:47.040 can make

00:38:47.400 an argument

00:38:47.920 that it

00:38:48.400 helped China

00:38:49.180 in some

00:38:49.700 way and

00:38:50.860 hurt other

00:38:51.360 people, so

00:38:52.160 maybe it

00:38:52.620 would have

00:38:52.860 made sense,

00:38:53.780 but I just

00:38:54.560 don't see

00:38:55.020 anybody releasing

00:38:56.200 a virus on

00:38:57.060 their own

00:38:57.500 country to

00:38:59.020 take out

00:38:59.580 America.

00:39:00.940 I mean,

00:39:01.720 maybe,

00:39:03.180 maybe.

00:39:08.460 Do you

00:39:09.200 believe in

00:39:09.680 luck?

00:39:10.440 Wow, two

00:39:10.900 people asked

00:39:11.400 me about

00:39:11.780 luck.

00:39:13.320 Here's my

00:39:14.100 take on

00:39:14.600 luck.

00:39:16.120 It

00:39:16.680 generally

00:39:17.260 believed that

00:39:17.900 you can't

00:39:18.400 change your

00:39:19.000 luck, that

00:39:19.860 luck is

00:39:20.440 just luck,

00:39:21.500 there's nothing

00:39:21.920 you can do

00:39:22.380 about it, but

00:39:23.640 that, of

00:39:24.000 course, is

00:39:24.340 completely wrong

00:39:25.100 because you

00:39:26.380 can go where

00:39:27.000 your odds are

00:39:27.640 better.

00:39:28.820 For example,

00:39:30.120 you have more

00:39:30.960 chance of

00:39:31.460 getting a

00:39:31.900 job if you

00:39:33.080 apply for

00:39:33.580 one, right?

00:39:35.540 So you

00:39:36.140 can't compare

00:39:36.620 the luck of

00:39:37.260 somebody who

00:39:37.680 didn't apply

00:39:38.300 for any

00:39:38.720 jobs to

00:39:39.980 somebody who

00:39:40.520 applied for

00:39:41.080 a bunch of

00:39:41.480 jobs.

00:39:42.400 Hey, the

00:39:42.900 person who

00:39:43.320 applied for

00:39:43.760 jobs got

00:39:44.240 jobs.

00:39:44.680 A person

00:39:45.620 who didn't

00:39:46.040 got no

00:39:46.560 job.

00:39:47.640 So most

00:39:48.060 of the time

00:39:48.540 what looks

00:39:49.380 like luck

00:39:50.040 is just

00:39:51.280 people who

00:39:51.800 have not

00:39:52.120 taken the

00:39:52.700 high probability

00:39:53.880 path versus

00:39:55.480 people who

00:39:56.080 took a low

00:39:56.600 probability

00:39:57.140 path and

00:39:57.800 got exactly

00:39:58.400 what you'd

00:39:58.780 expect.

00:39:59.620 If you're

00:40:00.180 building your

00:40:00.760 skill stack and

00:40:01.800 you're networking

00:40:02.400 and you're

00:40:02.880 staying in a

00:40:03.360 jail and

00:40:03.800 you're staying

00:40:04.160 off of drugs,

00:40:05.380 your odds

00:40:06.080 of luck

00:40:06.680 finding you

00:40:07.740 are really,

00:40:09.280 really good.

00:40:09.740 So I've

00:40:11.420 told you

00:40:11.700 before that

00:40:12.380 one way

00:40:12.960 to hack

00:40:14.560 luck is

00:40:16.240 to do a

00:40:16.960 lot of

00:40:17.200 stuff.

00:40:18.340 Just create

00:40:18.980 a lot of

00:40:19.360 energy.

00:40:20.240 Because if

00:40:20.620 you're doing

00:40:20.960 a lot of

00:40:21.340 stuff and

00:40:21.860 you're making

00:40:22.200 noise and

00:40:22.880 you're creating

00:40:23.360 energy and

00:40:24.120 you're drawing

00:40:24.540 resources to

00:40:25.380 you, your

00:40:26.520 odds of

00:40:27.040 something lucky

00:40:27.940 happening in

00:40:29.580 a situation

00:40:30.540 where there's

00:40:31.460 lots of

00:40:31.860 energy is

00:40:32.640 very good.

00:40:33.740 Your odds

00:40:34.480 of getting

00:40:34.800 lucky sitting

00:40:36.420 alone in a

00:40:37.380 cabin in the

00:40:38.120 middle of a

00:40:38.640 field in

00:40:39.200 Montana,

00:40:40.920 very low.

00:40:42.600 There's no

00:40:42.980 energy there.

00:40:44.280 There's no

00:40:45.140 probability

00:40:45.840 swirling around

00:40:46.940 you.

00:40:47.740 Nothing,

00:40:48.620 there's no

00:40:48.980 possibility.

00:40:50.200 So although

00:40:50.820 you can't

00:40:51.360 directly control

00:40:52.300 luck as in

00:40:53.240 controlling a

00:40:54.040 coin flip,

00:40:55.000 you can

00:40:55.680 definitely go

00:40:56.340 where there's

00:40:56.760 plenty of it

00:40:57.560 and you can

00:40:58.960 stay away from

00:40:59.740 where there isn't

00:41:00.260 much.

00:41:00.560 Let me give

00:41:00.900 you a concrete

00:41:01.620 example.

00:41:04.380 And some

00:41:05.180 of you have

00:41:05.540 heard the

00:41:05.860 example, but

00:41:06.900 I'll put it

00:41:07.400 in this

00:41:07.700 context.

00:41:09.200 When I was

00:41:10.940 working on

00:41:11.480 some startup

00:41:12.300 stuff and

00:41:12.980 getting into

00:41:13.440 the crypto

00:41:14.060 world, I

00:41:14.860 said to

00:41:15.240 myself, gosh,

00:41:16.820 I don't have

00:41:17.380 any immediate

00:41:18.020 need or

00:41:19.720 purpose to

00:41:20.560 know about

00:41:21.140 crypto, nor

00:41:22.680 do I need to

00:41:23.500 necessarily be

00:41:24.320 involved in

00:41:24.940 it.

00:41:25.600 But I

00:41:26.640 knew it was

00:41:27.260 a high energy

00:41:28.120 area that

00:41:29.200 was growing

00:41:29.860 and there

00:41:30.380 was going

00:41:31.140 to be lots

00:41:31.460 of stuff

00:41:31.980 happening, and

00:41:33.000 the opportunity

00:41:33.740 for luck

00:41:34.600 was high

00:41:36.200 because there

00:41:37.080 was so much

00:41:37.480 energy.

00:41:38.620 So if you

00:41:38.960 just go

00:41:39.380 where there's

00:41:39.800 a lot of

00:41:40.200 energy, luck

00:41:42.400 can sort of

00:41:43.380 just find you

00:41:44.200 because it's

00:41:44.700 swirling around

00:41:45.400 all over the

00:41:45.840 place.

00:41:46.760 So I went

00:41:47.600 quite consciously,

00:41:49.540 I went where

00:41:50.180 there was all

00:41:50.900 this energy,

00:41:51.760 in crypto.

00:41:53.200 And some

00:41:53.820 of you heard

00:41:54.220 the story

00:41:54.740 that I did

00:41:56.340 a bunch of

00:41:56.740 things, then I

00:41:57.580 walked away

00:41:58.040 from it, and

00:41:59.100 I had forgotten

00:41:59.780 that I'd

00:42:00.580 left a small

00:42:02.020 amount of

00:42:02.540 crypto in

00:42:03.280 one of my

00:42:03.980 crypto wallets.

00:42:05.820 I didn't even

00:42:06.360 know it was

00:42:06.760 there.

00:42:07.760 It turned

00:42:08.000 out to be

00:42:08.440 Ethereum, and

00:42:10.100 Ethereum went

00:42:10.760 on a run.

00:42:12.240 Last I

00:42:12.740 checked it, I

00:42:14.160 think it

00:42:14.500 probably started

00:42:15.120 around $5,000

00:42:16.700 or something.

00:42:18.500 Last I

00:42:19.180 checked it, it

00:42:19.740 was $349,000.

00:42:22.960 Complete luck.

00:42:24.860 I never

00:42:25.500 made a

00:42:26.000 decision to

00:42:27.160 invest.

00:42:28.920 In fact, I

00:42:29.460 had bought

00:42:29.820 the Ethereum

00:42:30.480 for transactions.

00:42:32.540 I was going

00:42:33.100 to spend it,

00:42:33.820 and I just

00:42:34.560 got diverted,

00:42:35.420 forgot I had

00:42:35.960 it there.

00:42:37.000 So this

00:42:37.700 is a

00:42:38.140 perfect

00:42:38.960 example of

00:42:41.460 going where

00:42:42.020 the energy

00:42:42.700 is, flailing

00:42:45.420 around, and

00:42:47.020 then getting

00:42:47.440 lucky.

00:42:49.040 And the

00:42:49.720 number of

00:42:50.120 times that

00:42:50.860 the same

00:42:52.880 person will

00:42:53.500 get lucky

00:42:54.120 happens a

00:42:56.000 lot.

00:42:57.500 Because that

00:42:58.420 one person is

00:42:59.320 simply following

00:43:00.620 the energy and

00:43:01.560 going wherever

00:43:02.160 there's a lot

00:43:02.760 of it, and

00:43:03.900 they'll get

00:43:04.360 lucky again and

00:43:05.660 again and

00:43:06.080 again.

00:43:06.820 But if

00:43:07.360 you're not

00:43:07.620 doing anything,

00:43:08.800 if you're not

00:43:09.340 creating any

00:43:10.060 energy, any

00:43:11.240 activity, luck's

00:43:13.340 not going to

00:43:13.740 find you.

00:43:15.100 So find a

00:43:16.100 high-energy

00:43:16.500 place and

00:43:17.140 flail around

00:43:17.860 long enough

00:43:18.440 for luck to

00:43:19.380 find you.

00:43:20.220 It's worked

00:43:20.820 all of my

00:43:21.280 life.

00:43:22.680 Whenever I

00:43:23.380 go to a

00:43:23.900 high-energy

00:43:24.360 place, luck

00:43:25.700 eventually figures

00:43:27.000 out where I

00:43:27.480 am.

00:43:27.640 any chance

00:43:32.740 of you

00:43:33.060 writing another

00:43:33.760 novel?

00:43:35.700 Interesting.

00:43:36.940 So the

00:43:38.920 thing that's

00:43:39.400 closest to a

00:43:40.400 novel that I

00:43:41.280 wrote was

00:43:41.660 called The

00:43:42.060 Religion War,

00:43:43.540 which predicted

00:43:44.360 20 years ago

00:43:45.440 when I wrote

00:43:45.820 it, it

00:43:46.640 predicted that

00:43:47.600 there would

00:43:48.440 be armed

00:43:49.420 drones attacking

00:43:51.700 cities and

00:43:52.780 stuff.

00:43:53.640 And I think

00:43:54.040 we'll see that.

00:43:54.600 But I don't

00:43:55.240 think, I

00:43:56.200 don't have

00:43:56.560 an immediate

00:43:57.420 craving to

00:43:58.960 write a novel,

00:44:00.380 fiction.

00:44:01.060 I just don't

00:44:01.500 like fiction as

00:44:02.300 much.

00:44:02.900 The ones I

00:44:03.420 wrote were

00:44:03.980 because they

00:44:04.460 were predictions.

00:44:05.780 So they

00:44:06.160 weren't just

00:44:06.560 fiction.

00:44:07.360 They were

00:44:07.720 predictions

00:44:08.280 wrapped up in

00:44:09.040 fiction.

00:44:12.720 Yeah, I

00:44:13.360 did make, I

00:44:14.320 mean, so

00:44:14.680 far, I did

00:44:16.280 make something

00:44:16.800 like $350,000

00:44:18.200 out of $5,000.

00:44:22.560 Do I have

00:44:23.200 any suggestions

00:44:23.700 for who to

00:44:24.120 follow on

00:44:24.400 Twitter with

00:44:24.900 more liberal

00:44:25.500 left-leaning

00:44:26.100 views?

00:44:28.500 Let me

00:44:29.080 think.

00:44:29.560 Yes, Farid

00:44:32.540 Zakaria on

00:44:34.540 CNN, Smirkanish

00:44:37.520 on CNN.

00:44:43.120 I'll think of

00:44:43.880 some more.

00:44:44.480 You know, it's

00:44:44.740 always hard to

00:44:45.160 come up with

00:44:45.560 examples when

00:44:46.500 somebody hits

00:44:47.040 you up like

00:44:47.460 that.

00:44:48.360 But consistently,

00:44:50.960 Jimmy Dore,

00:44:51.900 Jimmy Dore

00:44:52.440 would be a

00:44:52.800 good one,

00:44:53.120 thank you,

00:44:53.520 suggestion.

00:44:56.100 Anybody else

00:44:56.840 have some

00:44:57.220 suggestions?

00:45:00.380 The

00:45:00.520 Weinsteins,

00:45:02.780 would they,

00:45:03.220 do they

00:45:03.520 identify as

00:45:04.440 liberal?

00:45:05.780 I actually

00:45:06.440 don't even

00:45:06.800 know how

00:45:07.140 they identify.

00:45:08.860 Oh, yeah,

00:45:09.220 Glenn Greenwald,

00:45:10.900 Matt Taibbi,

00:45:12.700 those would be

00:45:13.480 the best.

00:45:14.380 Is, is

00:45:15.560 Tim of

00:45:16.800 Timcast,

00:45:17.740 does he

00:45:19.200 identify as

00:45:19.920 liberal?

00:45:21.040 I don't

00:45:21.460 know,

00:45:21.740 Tim

00:45:21.920 Poole?

00:45:23.920 I don't

00:45:24.520 know, I

00:45:25.240 feel as if

00:45:26.000 he, I

00:45:26.920 wouldn't want

00:45:27.320 to label

00:45:28.620 him in any

00:45:29.360 way he

00:45:29.620 doesn't label

00:45:30.180 himself.

00:45:33.280 Somebody

00:45:33.720 says Liz

00:45:34.280 Cheney, I

00:45:35.580 get it.

00:45:36.880 Anyway,

00:45:37.500 that's your

00:45:38.140 starter set and

00:45:38.840 that'll get you

00:45:39.300 going.

00:45:40.220 That's all I

00:45:40.800 got for today

00:45:41.380 and I will

00:45:42.040 talk to you

00:45:42.680 tomorrow.

00:45:43.860 tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - May 14, 2021

Episode 1375 Scott Adams： Israel's Clever Tunnel Decoy Plan, Masks Off For the Vaccinated, Checking Your Predictions

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