Real Coffee with Scott Adams - Episode 1399 Scott Adams： Nothing But Goodness and Kindness. Possibly Cookies

00:00:00.520 One moment, one moment. Don't go anywhere. I'll be back. And here I am. Well, everybody,

00:00:11.280 good morning, good morning. The Simultaneous Sip will be coming in a moment. But first,

00:00:17.500 the first item of the day. Are you ready? I have some suggestions for how to know what

00:00:25.300 to trust. Because we live in a world where sometimes you can't trust everything you hear,

00:00:31.160 can't trust everything you see. And I made a list of eight things you should no longer trust.

00:00:38.100 And here's the list. Never trust. Number one, scientists signing a letter. Scientists don't

00:00:46.660 need to communicate by poll. They don't need to communicate by signing a letter. If

00:00:54.940 science is real, they might publish some papers. They might give some talks, maybe some interviews.

00:01:01.500 But one thing they usually don't do is sign a letter. So if you see scientists getting together

00:01:06.040 to sign a letter, that's bullshit. Case in point, the Lancet article in which a bunch of scientists

00:01:17.040 were duped into signing something that said, well, there's no way that virus could be coming

00:01:23.460 from a lab. Must be a naturally occurring virus. So don't trust anything that scientists sign a letter

00:01:30.820 about. Number two, don't trust any video clip if it involves Trump. Now, most video clips can be

00:01:39.860 edited maliciously. And maybe sometimes you could believe some. But don't believe any video about

00:01:48.900 Trump. Do you know that yesterday there was a big controversy about whether Trump was wearing his

00:01:56.580 pants backwards? That's right. Much of the news cycle, well, not so much the news cycle, but social

00:02:04.420 media was obsessed by a video that appeared to show Trump wearing his pants backwards because the fly

00:02:12.380 area was blank. Well, it turns out that when you look at the still photography from that same moment,

00:02:20.060 he has his pants on correctly. And there's a fly there and everything's fine. But if you believed the

00:02:26.460 video, well, you violated rule number two, don't believe any video about Trump. Number three, don't

00:02:35.040 believe any complicated prediction models. Do you know why you shouldn't believe any complicated prediction

00:02:41.620 models? Because they're complicated prediction models. And if there's one thing you can't trust,

00:02:48.360 it's a complicated prediction model. Sometimes they might be right. But you don't know when that

00:02:54.700 time is going to be. You don't know if you're looking at one that's going to be right. How do you know?

00:03:00.680 It's just a complicated prediction model. So don't trust those, even when they're right.

00:03:05.640 Don't trust any graph or chart on Twitter. Because Twitter is not exactly the place you put your good

00:03:13.540 information. Twitter is the place you take a chart without the source, slap it up there without any

00:03:20.200 context whatsoever and claim you found causality. Don't believe any chart or graph on Twitter.

00:03:26.780 Number five, don't believe anything written by a journalist. I know it's a problem because most of

00:03:33.980 your news is written by a journalist. So it's kind of a problem if you can't believe the people who

00:03:42.460 report the news. But let me say this clearly. Don't believe the people who report the news.

00:03:48.600 That would be crazy. There might have been a time when that made sense. I don't know for sure.

00:03:53.580 Maybe it made sense when I was a kid. I don't know. Maybe they were lying too and we just never

00:03:59.500 found out. But in 2021, if you believe something because you read it and it was written by a

00:04:06.260 journalist, that's not good thinking. You should check yourself on that. Number six, of things you

00:04:15.980 should not believe in 2021. Never believe any claim made by a government. Any government.

00:04:22.180 government. Your government. Your enemy's government. Your ally's government. Governments

00:04:29.380 are not in the business of telling the truth. It's not even what they do. It's like saying,

00:04:35.580 hey, my lawnmower is failing to fly. Yeah, yeah, your lawnmower can't fly. Because it's not really

00:04:42.520 meant for that. Your government is not meant to tell you the truth. It's really not even, I don't know,

00:04:48.740 if you looked at a list of what they do for you. I'll bet telling you the truth wouldn't be on the

00:04:54.940 list. You're defending the homeland. That's on the list. Yeah. Yeah, lots of stuff is on the list.

00:05:01.720 But telling you the truth, it's not even on the list. It's not even in the Constitution.

00:05:07.120 Find in the Constitution the part about telling the truth. It's not there. Right? It's not even an

00:05:13.600 expectation. Here's the seventh thing you should not believe in the year 2021. Data. Data. Because

00:05:23.580 data is usually wrong. If the topic is interesting, the data is probably wrong. If the topic is boring

00:05:31.860 and uninteresting and maybe unimportant, well, data might be right. But as soon as the important,

00:05:37.020 as soon as the topic is important, people take sides. The data gets fudged. Don't believe data.

00:05:45.480 Now, that's not to say all data is wrong. Of course, some of it is right. But don't just

00:05:50.240 believe it. That's a bad take. And then number eight, which is sort of overlapping with some of

00:05:57.260 these, don't believe your own eyes or ears. If you find yourself saying this statement,

00:06:03.020 you've got a problem with your thinking. Has this come out of your mouth in the last year or

00:06:10.060 five? Have you ever said, I know it's true because I saw it with my own eyes or I heard it with my own

00:06:18.100 ears or both? If you're saying things like that, you need to check yourself because you can't tell

00:06:25.440 what's true by seeing it with your own eyes. Fake videos, fake data, fake graphs, fake politicians.

00:06:32.060 You can't tell. And you can't tell by listening to it because you might not hear it right and other

00:06:38.320 people are interpreting it differently and you might not know the context. So don't believe your

00:06:44.320 eyes and your ears. They're lying to you all day long. So those are the eight things you should not

00:06:49.740 believe in. Scientists signing a letter, any video about Trump, complicated prediction models,

00:06:56.060 any graph or chart you see on Twitter, anything written by a journalist, any claim made by a

00:07:02.320 government, yours or any other government, data, and your own eyes and ears. Don't believe any of that

00:07:11.080 stuff. And now let's drink to that because I know you're on board. All you need is a cup or a mug or a

00:07:17.000 glass of tank or chelsea, sign a cantine drug of Alaska, a vessel of any kind. Fill it with your

00:07:21.400 favorite liquid. I like coffee. And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine hit of

00:07:27.700 the day, the thing that makes what? What? Yeah, that's right. Everything better. It's called the

00:07:34.120 simultaneous sip and it's going to happen now. Go.

00:07:42.840 Those of you who got here a little bit late, aren't you happy that you didn't miss the sip? Yeah, of

00:07:49.020 course you are. Well, it turns out that in our land of fake news, turns out that that old virus,

00:07:57.440 that virus, that COVID-19 virus, that pesky little virus, which China told us was completely evolved

00:08:08.080 from natural means, probably some bat bit somebody or a pangolin or some damn thing. But it turns out 0.78

00:08:19.340 that there's this pesky little genome sequence in COVID-19. And if you're familiar with it, it's the

00:08:27.940 CGG-CGG. You all know what I'm talking about, right? Yeah, yeah. I'm talking about the genome sequence,

00:08:36.500 CGG-CGG, well known. We talk about it all the time. And it's one of 36 sequencing patterns

00:08:46.500 that the COVID-19 has. It's one of the patterns. But there's something about this pattern.

00:08:53.480 Something about this pattern, which we just learned. Something about it. Did you hear?

00:09:01.100 Apparently, there's something about this virus which has never occurred in nature. Never. As in,

00:09:09.900 as far as we know, the sequence, this one sequence here has never occurred in nature.

00:09:15.580 But it has occurred. It has occurred. We are familiar with it. Do you know where it occurs?

00:09:22.340 Only one way we know it occurs.

00:09:26.000 An engineered virus.

00:09:29.420 It's the only way it happens that we know of.

00:09:33.040 Now, we're still open to the slight possibility

00:09:36.300 that this would be the first time it ever happened naturally.

00:09:39.920 But it would be really, really, really unlikely.

00:09:45.080 Doesn't mean it didn't happen.

00:09:47.300 But really, really, really unlikely.

00:09:49.760 And so as of today, based on what we know

00:09:53.120 from additional unreliable sources,

00:09:56.560 because remember, all of your sources are unreliable.

00:10:01.800 The ones you agree with, they're unreliable.

00:10:04.940 The ones you disagree with, they're unreliable, too.

00:10:09.900 So, you know, good luck figuring out what's true.

00:10:14.180 But as of today, I believe that the common wisdom

00:10:17.200 by all the smart people

00:10:18.940 is that we are now reversing our default assumption.

00:10:23.960 The default assumption is now, I believe,

00:10:27.340 let's see how today develops, right?

00:10:29.060 But I believe that as of today,

00:10:31.540 all of the smart people will say

00:10:33.700 the default assumption is that it was an engineered virus

00:10:38.920 and that it was engineered in the Wuhan lab 0.78

00:10:41.200 and that it got out.

00:10:42.840 Now, nobody's saying it got out intentionally.

00:10:45.740 I still think that's crazy talk.

00:10:48.600 But got out, that wouldn't be a big surprise.

00:10:52.040 Stuff gets out of labs.

00:10:53.620 It happens.

00:10:54.260 It's a fairly common thing, unfortunately.

00:10:56.640 And so this puts the lie to everything we had been told.

00:11:03.340 And as you know, there was a letter signed

00:11:06.280 by a bunch of scientists.

00:11:07.960 That's right.

00:11:08.980 There were a bunch of scientists who signed the letter

00:11:11.600 saying that, no, no, no,

00:11:13.680 this virus certainly was not engineered in any kind of a lab.

00:11:17.460 It's a naturally occurring virus.

00:11:20.300 How many of the scientists who signed the letter,

00:11:23.920 I think it appeared in Lancet,

00:11:25.340 how many of those scientists who gave their opinion in public

00:11:29.180 had studied the virus and are experts in this topic?

00:11:35.440 Maybe none.

00:11:38.300 Right? Maybe none.

00:11:40.100 How many of them had looked at all the genome sequences

00:11:44.040 and would be qualified to know

00:11:47.220 that if they looked at the CGG-CGG sequence,

00:11:52.660 where apparently the tells for being an engineered virus,

00:11:57.900 that's where they live.

00:12:00.820 Just think about this for a moment.

00:12:03.520 There was a letter signed by a bunch of scientists

00:12:05.860 saying, oh, this is definitely natural, no doubt about it.

00:12:08.840 But at the same time,

00:12:11.820 other scientists who apparently know what they're talking about,

00:12:16.000 which would be different than the people who signed the letter,

00:12:19.000 people who know what they're talking about,

00:12:21.340 they actually knew where to look

00:12:23.460 to find out whether it was engineered.

00:12:28.620 Let me say this again slowly,

00:12:31.260 and then I'm going to add a curse word

00:12:34.320 because it needs that treatment.

00:12:37.300 Send your children away.

00:12:39.680 The cursing is on the way.

00:12:42.020 So I'm going to say it again slowly

00:12:46.440 so this fully sinks in.

00:12:48.460 There were people in our world

00:12:51.640 who were experts in viruses

00:12:54.240 who knew where to look on the sequence

00:12:58.380 to find out if it was engineered.

00:13:02.160 They knew where to look

00:13:05.560 and also what to look for.

00:13:09.760 Always.

00:13:11.160 From the beginning,

00:13:13.420 these people existed.

00:13:15.840 People who knew where to look

00:13:17.440 and what to look for.

00:13:20.420 They were always with us.

00:13:24.600 Are you fucking kidding me?

00:13:27.660 Are you fucking, fucking kidding me?

00:13:32.020 There were people who knew where to look,

00:13:35.220 and when they looked,

00:13:37.680 it was there.

00:13:40.660 Is your head exploding right now?

00:13:44.900 My head is exploding.

00:13:47.440 There is something so wrong

00:13:49.700 about this whole story

00:13:51.740 that I can barely handle it.

00:13:56.540 And certainly science has lost us now.

00:14:01.180 And it's not our fault.

00:14:04.420 It's not your fault

00:14:06.100 if you're denying science from 2020 on.

00:14:09.320 Believing science is fucking stupid.

00:14:12.540 It's fucking stupid.

00:14:14.800 Fucking stupid.

00:14:16.480 So the next person who says,

00:14:17.600 hey, I think you're a science denier,

00:14:20.380 you should say, thank you.

00:14:22.000 Oh my God, I guess I've been paying attention.

00:14:24.360 I am a science denier.

00:14:25.760 And if you believe the science,

00:14:27.980 you are fucking stupid. 0.98

00:14:30.040 You're a fucking moron

00:14:31.600 if you believe science

00:14:33.120 just because a bunch of scientists told you.

00:14:36.420 They just told you,

00:14:37.540 so it must be true.

00:14:38.700 Don't vote at all.

00:14:39.860 I believe my science.

00:14:41.780 You're a fucking idiot

00:14:43.140 if you believe science from 2021 on.

00:14:46.100 Now before this,

00:14:47.840 before 2021,

00:14:49.140 I would say,

00:14:50.380 you know,

00:14:50.840 maybe you hadn't been warned.

00:14:53.960 Maybe you just were unaware

00:14:55.520 that scientists could be this unreliable.

00:14:58.440 Maybe you just didn't know.

00:15:00.000 I think that was reasonable.

00:15:01.860 But from this day on,

00:15:03.960 literally this fucking day, 0.95

00:15:06.400 the day we find out

00:15:07.420 that this letter signed by scientists

00:15:09.160 was always bullshit. 0.50

00:15:11.760 Always bullshit.

00:15:13.260 From this day on,

00:15:15.760 if you believe science

00:15:17.580 because the bunch of scientists

00:15:18.880 told you it was true,

00:15:19.820 you're a fucking moron. 0.95

00:15:22.560 There's no middle ground.

00:15:25.420 Now that doesn't mean

00:15:26.060 that the scientists would be wrong.

00:15:29.660 Sean says,

00:15:30.600 is there a deep state

00:15:31.420 for the establishment

00:15:33.340 scientific community?

00:15:35.000 Well, I don't think so

00:15:36.200 in terms of, you know,

00:15:37.780 something controlling all of science.

00:15:39.960 I do think that each field of science

00:15:42.140 and each pocket of science

00:15:43.860 has its influential people.

00:15:46.400 So in the specific sense, yes.

00:15:49.060 But not in some big generic sense.

00:15:51.800 So that's the world we live in.

00:15:53.640 How about that?

00:15:56.700 Apparently, according to Rasmussen,

00:15:58.460 who's reporting today,

00:15:59.460 that Biden's approval

00:16:00.580 is in a free fall

00:16:01.860 since May 31st,

00:16:03.800 which is not that long ago.

00:16:06.560 Thank you, Kevin.

00:16:07.940 I appreciate that.

00:16:08.940 Apparently,

00:16:10.900 independents have turned

00:16:12.520 on Biden.

00:16:14.100 So, of course,

00:16:14.800 Democrats still love him.

00:16:16.180 Republicans have always

00:16:17.320 disliked him.

00:16:18.540 But independents

00:16:19.680 were sort of split

00:16:20.720 and they just turned.

00:16:23.100 They just turned this week.

00:16:28.460 Yeah.

00:16:29.140 Michael says,

00:16:29.920 remember when Twitter and Facebook

00:16:31.160 would ban you

00:16:31.840 for telling the truth?

00:16:33.400 Well, you know,

00:16:34.380 to be fair,

00:16:35.080 nobody knew what the truth was.

00:16:37.020 To be fair,

00:16:37.980 Twitter and Facebook

00:16:38.840 were also believing scientists.

00:16:42.000 And again,

00:16:43.040 I'm going to say

00:16:43.720 that if you believed

00:16:44.920 science scientists

00:16:46.480 up until the year,

00:16:48.360 you know,

00:16:48.660 2020, 2021,

00:16:50.280 that was pretty reasonable.

00:16:52.460 Pretty reasonable.

00:16:53.780 But if you believe them

00:16:54.820 from now on,

00:16:56.540 you're just a fucking idiot

00:16:58.020 and you have no credibility

00:16:59.520 whatsoever,

00:17:00.100 which doesn't mean

00:17:01.240 they're wrong.

00:17:02.360 Obviously,

00:17:02.960 many times they'll be right.

00:17:04.440 It's just that

00:17:04.960 you can't tell the difference.

00:17:06.260 Don't pretend you can.

00:17:09.060 And they don't have

00:17:10.020 credibility anymore.

00:17:11.620 Credibility being different

00:17:12.820 than being right or wrong,

00:17:14.020 right?

00:17:14.620 Credible means

00:17:15.480 that if they say something,

00:17:17.860 you're predisposed

00:17:19.340 to thinking,

00:17:19.920 well,

00:17:20.020 it's probably true.

00:17:21.100 It's coming from

00:17:21.800 a credible source.

00:17:23.020 But they are no longer

00:17:24.240 a credible source

00:17:25.480 and we need to recognize that.

00:17:27.920 So,

00:17:28.340 I'm wondering,

00:17:28.940 what topic was it

00:17:29.960 that made Biden's approval

00:17:32.300 go into free fall

00:17:33.380 with the independents?

00:17:35.200 Do you know?

00:17:36.480 What would be your

00:17:37.840 take on this?

00:17:40.280 What is it that caused

00:17:41.260 Biden's approval

00:17:42.180 to suddenly drop

00:17:44.220 in the last week?

00:17:46.280 What do you think it is?

00:17:47.100 Somebody says

00:17:47.860 inflation,

00:17:50.400 masks,

00:17:51.880 gas prices,

00:17:53.000 maybe something

00:17:56.460 about China,

00:17:58.260 Russia,

00:17:59.320 borders,

00:18:00.460 I don't know,

00:18:02.100 the debt,

00:18:03.320 tax rates,

00:18:05.020 I don't know.

00:18:06.000 If I had to guess,

00:18:06.880 I'd think

00:18:07.200 maybe tax rates

00:18:08.620 people are

00:18:09.180 starting to worry about.

00:18:10.420 Cyber security,

00:18:11.240 maybe.

00:18:12.300 Is it just everything?

00:18:14.700 Maybe it's just everything.

00:18:15.660 So,

00:18:19.080 I don't know too much

00:18:19.800 about that.

00:18:20.420 Here's a fun topic.

00:18:22.440 Most of you are aware

00:18:23.480 that Logan Paul

00:18:25.780 just had a fight

00:18:27.860 with,

00:18:28.400 what's his name?

00:18:30.000 Remind me

00:18:30.700 the name of the fighter

00:18:31.660 he just fought.

00:18:33.000 One of the best,

00:18:34.320 why am I blanking on

00:18:35.700 who Logan Paul

00:18:37.760 just boxed?

00:18:39.320 What's the name

00:18:39.800 of the boxer?

00:18:40.800 Yeah,

00:18:42.520 Floyd Mayweather.

00:18:43.340 Only one of the

00:18:44.320 greatest boxers

00:18:45.120 of all time,

00:18:45.760 whose name

00:18:46.100 I couldn't remember.

00:18:47.540 So,

00:18:48.060 if you're not

00:18:48.820 into boxing,

00:18:49.620 let me just tell you

00:18:50.160 the basics.

00:18:50.800 Logan Paul

00:18:51.300 was a YouTuber,

00:18:52.640 but he trained

00:18:53.180 very hard

00:18:53.780 and actually

00:18:54.860 became a credible

00:18:55.780 fighter,

00:18:57.200 changing careers.

00:18:59.760 And Floyd Mayweather

00:19:01.260 is aging,

00:19:02.240 but one of the

00:19:02.880 best boxers

00:19:03.980 ever alive.

00:19:05.680 They just had

00:19:06.260 an exhibition match

00:19:07.240 and Logan Paul

00:19:08.580 boxed him

00:19:09.900 to a tie.

00:19:12.140 And I guess

00:19:12.620 in the exhibition

00:19:13.360 match,

00:19:14.500 unless there's

00:19:15.080 a knockout,

00:19:15.740 you don't get

00:19:16.140 a winner.

00:19:17.180 So,

00:19:18.160 now I'm not sure

00:19:19.180 that Mayweather

00:19:20.620 fought as hard

00:19:21.400 as he could.

00:19:22.180 I don't know.

00:19:23.100 They both had

00:19:23.760 something like

00:19:24.700 a $20 million

00:19:25.440 payday or

00:19:26.420 some big number

00:19:27.100 like that.

00:19:28.520 And here's

00:19:30.540 the interesting

00:19:31.020 part about it.

00:19:31.920 It turns out

00:19:32.600 that Logan Paul

00:19:33.560 is an

00:19:35.440 affirmations guy.

00:19:37.660 And I don't

00:19:39.260 know if he

00:19:39.700 believes that

00:19:40.360 we live in

00:19:41.100 a simulation.

00:19:42.520 I haven't seen

00:19:43.140 anything about

00:19:43.640 that.

00:19:44.420 But he's very

00:19:45.200 clearly talking

00:19:45.940 about affirmations.

00:19:47.100 Here's a tweet

00:19:47.860 from Logan Paul

00:19:49.340 in which he was

00:19:50.240 getting ready

00:19:50.700 for the match,

00:19:51.940 the boxing match.

00:19:52.760 And he said,

00:19:53.340 in his tweet,

00:19:53.940 he said,

00:19:54.660 in 2015,

00:19:55.400 I moved to

00:19:56.340 Los Angeles.

00:19:57.540 Every morning

00:19:58.320 and every night,

00:19:59.000 I look myself

00:19:59.940 in the mirror

00:20:00.480 and repeat

00:20:01.100 10 times,

00:20:02.100 quote,

00:20:02.740 I will be

00:20:03.340 the biggest

00:20:03.920 entertainer

00:20:04.660 in the world.

00:20:05.280 I had no

00:20:06.940 idea how

00:20:07.700 or when

00:20:08.280 it would

00:20:08.540 happen,

00:20:09.300 but after

00:20:09.940 six years

00:20:10.600 of manifestation,

00:20:12.000 it's happening.

00:20:13.580 Life is a

00:20:14.400 wild ride.

00:20:16.400 Do you

00:20:16.960 believe that?

00:20:17.840 Do you

00:20:18.320 believe that

00:20:18.720 in 2015,

00:20:19.640 he literally,

00:20:21.260 every morning

00:20:21.880 and every night,

00:20:22.580 looked in the

00:20:22.980 mirror and

00:20:23.340 repeated 10

00:20:24.000 times,

00:20:24.480 I will be

00:20:24.860 the biggest

00:20:25.300 entertainer

00:20:25.980 in the world?

00:20:27.420 Well,

00:20:27.940 maybe not

00:20:28.380 every single

00:20:28.920 day,

00:20:30.060 but I believe

00:20:30.900 it.

00:20:31.800 I believe

00:20:32.240 it.

00:20:32.380 It would be

00:20:32.820 sort of a

00:20:33.340 weird lie

00:20:33.840 to tell,

00:20:34.480 right?

00:20:35.280 Did it

00:20:37.680 work?

00:20:39.100 Do you

00:20:39.640 think he

00:20:40.000 accomplished

00:20:40.600 I will be

00:20:42.400 the biggest

00:20:42.860 entertainer

00:20:43.560 in the

00:20:43.780 world?

00:20:45.100 Did he

00:20:45.800 accomplish

00:20:46.180 it?

00:20:47.500 He did.

00:20:48.940 He did.

00:20:50.260 If only

00:20:51.020 for one

00:20:51.460 day.

00:20:52.840 Check your

00:20:53.440 entertainment

00:20:54.040 news for

00:20:55.440 today.

00:20:57.000 He's the

00:20:57.760 biggest

00:20:58.080 entertainer

00:20:58.940 in the

00:21:00.360 world

00:21:00.740 today.

00:21:02.780 All the

00:21:03.480 stories are

00:21:03.960 about him.

00:21:05.280 Now,

00:21:05.640 he won't

00:21:06.340 be bigger

00:21:06.740 than

00:21:07.060 Kanye

00:21:08.040 or

00:21:08.420 Michael

00:21:08.740 Jackson

00:21:09.240 in the

00:21:10.260 long run,

00:21:11.100 right?

00:21:12.100 But today,

00:21:14.080 he's the

00:21:15.060 biggest

00:21:15.280 entertainer

00:21:15.820 in the

00:21:16.040 world.

00:21:17.260 He

00:21:17.460 fucking

00:21:17.800 did it.

00:21:18.980 He

00:21:19.500 fucking

00:21:19.840 did it.

00:21:21.520 You know,

00:21:22.100 unbelievable.

00:21:24.480 He did it.

00:21:25.080 And you

00:21:28.220 could argue

00:21:29.040 whether he's

00:21:29.780 the biggest

00:21:30.080 entertainer

00:21:30.580 in the

00:21:30.780 world.

00:21:31.140 You could

00:21:31.400 argue how

00:21:31.980 long is it

00:21:32.500 supposed to

00:21:32.940 last.

00:21:33.820 But one

00:21:34.160 of the

00:21:34.400 things I've

00:21:34.860 told you

00:21:35.400 about

00:21:36.220 affirmations

00:21:36.920 is don't

00:21:38.020 make them

00:21:38.440 specific.

00:21:40.420 Because when

00:21:41.120 you make

00:21:41.440 them specific,

00:21:43.040 you might

00:21:43.540 get them

00:21:44.080 exactly the

00:21:44.960 way you've

00:21:45.340 made them.

00:21:46.720 And he

00:21:47.220 did.

00:21:48.160 He got

00:21:48.800 exactly what

00:21:49.540 he asked

00:21:49.880 for.

00:21:50.640 He became

00:21:51.120 the biggest

00:21:51.580 entertainer

00:21:52.260 in the

00:21:52.480 world.

00:21:53.000 But what

00:21:53.600 was missing

00:21:54.120 is four

00:21:55.620 years.

00:21:57.360 If he

00:21:57.920 had said,

00:21:58.420 I'll be

00:21:58.660 the biggest

00:21:59.080 entertainer

00:21:59.680 in the

00:21:59.920 world for

00:22:01.320 years,

00:22:02.580 well,

00:22:03.220 first of all,

00:22:03.600 that'd be

00:22:03.860 harder.

00:22:05.320 And second

00:22:05.700 of all,

00:22:06.440 it didn't

00:22:06.820 happen.

00:22:07.660 I doubt

00:22:08.280 he'll be

00:22:08.640 the biggest

00:22:09.020 entertainer

00:22:09.680 in the

00:22:10.320 world for

00:22:10.780 years.

00:22:12.020 But he

00:22:12.680 was today.

00:22:14.240 He

00:22:14.720 actually hit

00:22:15.500 his fucking 0.65

00:22:16.200 mark.

00:22:17.640 And,

00:22:17.980 you know,

00:22:18.300 when he

00:22:18.480 talked about

00:22:18.900 it after

00:22:19.200 he was

00:22:20.920 quite

00:22:21.220 inspirational,

00:22:22.280 actually,

00:22:22.860 talking about

00:22:23.800 how you

00:22:24.320 shouldn't

00:22:24.540 believe the

00:22:24.960 odds.

00:22:26.360 Now,

00:22:26.680 do you

00:22:26.880 think you

00:22:27.240 should stay

00:22:27.760 in your

00:22:28.080 channel?

00:22:29.580 Did

00:22:29.940 Logan Paul

00:22:30.860 take all

00:22:31.520 the advice

00:22:32.400 from all

00:22:32.820 the losers

00:22:33.300 in the

00:22:33.680 world and

00:22:34.640 say,

00:22:34.960 Logan Paul,

00:22:36.060 you're a

00:22:36.920 YouTuber.

00:22:37.680 Yeah,

00:22:37.960 you had some

00:22:38.620 wrestling

00:22:39.000 experience.

00:22:40.160 I know

00:22:40.380 you've

00:22:40.680 worked out,

00:22:41.440 you've

00:22:41.620 boxed.

00:22:42.480 I know

00:22:42.780 you've

00:22:42.940 got a

00:22:43.160 little,

00:22:43.500 you know,

00:22:44.260 weight and

00:22:44.780 height advantage

00:22:45.500 over Floyd

00:22:46.080 Mayweather,

00:22:46.640 but really

00:22:47.100 seriously,

00:22:48.380 seriously.

00:22:49.200 You know,

00:22:49.820 is this

00:22:50.100 going to

00:22:50.300 work out?

00:22:53.120 And he

00:22:53.840 changed lanes

00:22:54.920 and he

00:22:56.400 made,

00:22:57.040 I think,

00:22:57.500 $20 million

00:22:58.080 minus taxes,

00:23:00.240 minus,

00:23:00.760 you know,

00:23:01.440 managers and

00:23:02.200 stuff.

00:23:03.300 So,

00:23:04.500 wow,

00:23:07.280 I love

00:23:07.740 this story.

00:23:08.700 I also

00:23:09.180 love the

00:23:09.700 sportsmanship.

00:23:10.740 You probably

00:23:11.060 saw Logan

00:23:11.620 Paul and

00:23:12.480 Mayweather,

00:23:13.520 you know,

00:23:13.860 going at

00:23:14.300 each other

00:23:14.660 before the

00:23:15.160 fight.

00:23:15.400 after the

00:23:16.420 fight,

00:23:17.720 after the

00:23:18.320 fight,

00:23:18.680 Floyd

00:23:18.920 Mayweather

00:23:19.560 said,

00:23:20.060 wow,

00:23:20.320 he was

00:23:20.560 much better

00:23:21.360 than I

00:23:21.640 thought,

00:23:22.120 gave him

00:23:22.440 full respect.

00:23:24.240 Full respect.

00:23:26.380 Oh,

00:23:26.540 is that net

00:23:26.980 $10 million,

00:23:27.680 somebody saying?

00:23:28.420 Anne-Marie.

00:23:29.500 Is that net

00:23:30.200 for each of

00:23:31.900 them $10 million,

00:23:32.640 or are you

00:23:32.880 just saying

00:23:33.200 after taxes?

00:23:34.500 After taxes

00:23:35.280 would be half

00:23:35.800 that,

00:23:36.020 yes.

00:23:38.060 All right.

00:23:39.280 Well,

00:23:39.740 that's enough

00:23:40.140 of that.

00:23:40.440 I was

00:23:42.560 asked the

00:23:42.960 other day

00:23:43.360 if the

00:23:44.000 simulation

00:23:44.580 has a

00:23:45.240 null

00:23:45.540 hypothesis,

00:23:46.640 which in

00:23:47.300 regular

00:23:47.740 English

00:23:48.920 means,

00:23:49.940 is there

00:23:50.220 a way

00:23:50.460 to prove

00:23:50.900 it's

00:23:51.280 false?

00:23:52.580 Because if

00:23:53.180 you can't

00:23:53.780 disprove

00:23:54.260 it,

00:23:55.380 maybe you

00:23:56.260 can't

00:23:56.480 prove it.

00:23:58.180 So,

00:23:59.060 I don't

00:24:00.440 have that.

00:24:01.260 So,

00:24:01.460 in other

00:24:01.660 words,

00:24:01.800 I don't

00:24:02.460 have a

00:24:03.580 way to

00:24:04.760 prove it

00:24:05.300 or to

00:24:05.820 disprove

00:24:06.160 it.

00:24:07.260 But,

00:24:07.940 I want

00:24:08.920 to just

00:24:09.180 put this

00:24:09.600 thought out

00:24:10.180 there for

00:24:10.880 your

00:24:11.160 observation.

00:24:12.500 And it

00:24:12.680 goes like

00:24:13.100 this.

00:24:14.040 In my

00:24:14.620 opinion,

00:24:16.240 my life

00:24:17.120 has been

00:24:17.620 so close

00:24:18.800 to what

00:24:19.140 a video

00:24:19.660 game

00:24:20.120 should be

00:24:20.780 like,

00:24:21.680 that I

00:24:22.240 can't

00:24:22.540 ignore it

00:24:23.020 anymore.

00:24:24.100 And one

00:24:24.520 of the

00:24:24.860 things that

00:24:25.900 is very

00:24:26.220 video game

00:24:26.900 like goes

00:24:27.580 like this.

00:24:28.860 I have

00:24:29.700 a theme

00:24:30.420 my whole

00:24:31.820 life,

00:24:32.440 starting when

00:24:33.040 I was,

00:24:33.700 I don't

00:24:34.140 know,

00:24:34.740 10 years

00:24:35.260 old.

00:24:36.140 There's a

00:24:36.880 theme in

00:24:37.320 my life,

00:24:37.980 and I'm

00:24:38.300 sorry,

00:24:38.640 I'm not

00:24:38.860 going to

00:24:39.040 tell you

00:24:39.280 what it

00:24:39.560 is.

00:24:40.180 But it's

00:24:40.780 a theme.

00:24:41.640 There's a

00:24:42.080 specific

00:24:42.560 problem that

00:24:43.980 I have

00:24:44.660 over and

00:24:45.640 over and

00:24:46.140 over again,

00:24:47.460 going so

00:24:49.000 far beyond

00:24:49.880 what chance

00:24:53.080 could possibly

00:24:53.840 deliver.

00:24:55.160 Now,

00:24:55.840 you might

00:24:56.160 say to

00:24:56.440 yourself,

00:24:56.860 Scott,

00:24:57.160 Scott,

00:24:57.420 Scott,

00:24:57.780 everybody

00:24:58.100 thinks

00:24:58.500 everything

00:24:58.820 that happens

00:24:59.260 to them

00:24:59.540 is a

00:24:59.800 coincidence

00:25:00.200 because in

00:25:00.780 a way it

00:25:01.160 is,

00:25:02.000 everything's

00:25:02.500 a coincidence

00:25:02.960 in a sense,

00:25:03.840 blah, blah, blah,

00:25:04.280 blah, blah.

00:25:04.820 Explain it away

00:25:05.720 with all your

00:25:06.340 rational thoughts,

00:25:07.320 et cetera,

00:25:07.600 and maybe

00:25:08.220 you're

00:25:08.440 completely

00:25:08.780 right.

00:25:09.640 But watch

00:25:10.320 for the

00:25:10.720 following

00:25:11.060 pattern.

00:25:12.500 Is there

00:25:12.860 a theme

00:25:13.420 in your

00:25:13.760 life?

00:25:15.520 Do you

00:25:15.740 have a

00:25:16.000 theme?

00:25:17.480 Is there

00:25:18.060 a specific,

00:25:19.500 let's say,

00:25:20.300 a character

00:25:21.140 flaw you have

00:25:22.320 or a challenge

00:25:23.760 that just over

00:25:25.560 and over and

00:25:26.720 over seems to

00:25:27.500 apply to you,

00:25:28.740 but as far as

00:25:29.560 you know,

00:25:29.880 it's just not

00:25:30.340 happening to

00:25:30.880 other people?

00:25:31.380 Now,

00:25:33.020 of all the

00:25:33.500 problems that

00:25:34.120 I could have,

00:25:35.160 it's infinite,

00:25:35.940 right?

00:25:36.660 There are

00:25:36.980 infinite problems

00:25:37.900 that could just

00:25:38.500 arise that I

00:25:39.380 don't know

00:25:39.760 are out there.

00:25:40.700 Just anything

00:25:41.280 could happen.

00:25:42.640 But that

00:25:43.340 doesn't happen.

00:25:44.820 Instead,

00:25:45.800 my problems

00:25:46.520 are clustered

00:25:47.300 and have been

00:25:48.720 since I was

00:25:49.440 fucking 11

00:25:50.280 years old,

00:25:51.300 one right

00:25:52.460 after another.

00:25:53.600 And here's

00:25:54.160 the freaky

00:25:54.760 part.

00:25:55.940 Each time I

00:25:56.860 get a new

00:25:57.300 challenge within

00:25:58.220 my theme

00:25:59.420 and I

00:26:01.020 beat it

00:26:01.620 seemingly

00:26:02.420 against the

00:26:03.060 odds,

00:26:03.940 I beat it.

00:26:05.520 As soon as

00:26:06.580 it's beaten,

00:26:07.880 within about

00:26:09.120 no more than

00:26:11.340 three days,

00:26:12.400 usually two,

00:26:13.900 a new

00:26:14.600 problem that

00:26:15.660 came,

00:26:16.180 that comes

00:26:16.560 from nowhere

00:26:17.060 will appear

00:26:18.620 to replace

00:26:19.280 the one that

00:26:19.780 just got

00:26:20.300 solved within

00:26:21.500 the theme,

00:26:22.520 you know,

00:26:22.720 whatever your

00:26:23.120 life theme

00:26:23.620 is.

00:26:24.520 And this

00:26:25.360 just happened

00:26:25.760 to me again.

00:26:26.800 You know,

00:26:27.100 it's happened

00:26:27.520 to me countless

00:26:28.160 times.

00:26:28.580 But I've

00:26:29.580 started predicting.

00:26:31.860 Try this.

00:26:33.380 My belief is

00:26:34.420 that the

00:26:35.020 most accurate

00:26:36.000 view of

00:26:36.540 reality is

00:26:37.180 the one that

00:26:37.620 predicts.

00:26:39.080 Several days

00:26:39.900 ago, I

00:26:41.080 predicted out

00:26:41.900 loud,

00:26:42.360 privately,

00:26:43.260 but out

00:26:43.600 loud,

00:26:44.260 that I had

00:26:45.500 just solved

00:26:46.100 my last

00:26:46.740 problem in

00:26:47.400 the theme

00:26:47.980 and that a

00:26:49.040 new problem

00:26:49.580 in the

00:26:50.100 theme was

00:26:51.320 going to

00:26:51.560 come out

00:26:51.940 of nowhere.

00:26:53.360 And boy,

00:26:53.780 did it.

00:26:55.200 Wow.

00:26:56.780 Wow.

00:26:57.100 Again,

00:26:58.900 you know,

00:26:59.160 you don't

00:26:59.380 need to

00:26:59.700 know the

00:27:00.120 details of

00:27:01.120 my little

00:27:01.620 problems in

00:27:02.260 life,

00:27:03.020 but I

00:27:04.740 got the

00:27:05.720 supernova

00:27:06.400 of all

00:27:07.660 fucking

00:27:07.960 problems.

00:27:09.220 Solvable.

00:27:10.040 You don't

00:27:10.400 have to worry

00:27:10.760 about me.

00:27:11.120 I'm not

00:27:11.320 going to

00:27:11.480 die or

00:27:11.780 anything.

00:27:12.600 But,

00:27:13.840 oh my

00:27:14.680 fucking

00:27:15.020 God,

00:27:15.600 and I

00:27:15.940 predicted it

00:27:16.840 a few

00:27:17.600 days before

00:27:18.220 it happened.

00:27:19.140 I predicted

00:27:19.660 it.

00:27:20.600 So it's the

00:27:21.140 predicting it

00:27:21.900 point that

00:27:22.840 was the,

00:27:24.840 no,

00:27:25.460 your guesses

00:27:26.220 are amusing,

00:27:26.980 but you're

00:27:27.200 not going

00:27:27.460 to be able

00:27:27.680 to guess

00:27:27.980 it.

00:27:28.840 And no,

00:27:29.480 that's not

00:27:29.880 it.

00:27:30.620 But watch

00:27:32.440 this.

00:27:34.020 Why are

00:27:34.520 you all

00:27:34.760 guessing the

00:27:35.220 same thing?

00:27:36.140 No,

00:27:36.480 you're not

00:27:37.580 going to be

00:27:37.820 able to

00:27:38.000 guess it.

00:27:39.120 So,

00:27:39.680 I was just

00:27:42.380 laughing at

00:27:42.860 your guesses.

00:27:43.940 But the

00:27:44.920 point is,

00:27:45.860 follow this

00:27:46.560 in your own

00:27:46.980 life and

00:27:47.480 see if your

00:27:47.980 problems follow

00:27:48.860 a theme.

00:27:50.460 And if

00:27:50.860 they do,

00:27:51.580 does the

00:27:51.900 new problem

00:27:52.440 appear as

00:27:53.140 soon as

00:27:53.480 the old

00:27:53.780 one is

00:27:54.060 gone?

00:27:54.880 Because if

00:27:55.560 it does,

00:27:57.260 you might

00:27:57.720 be in a

00:27:58.060 video game.

00:27:59.840 You might

00:28:00.240 be in a

00:28:00.580 video game.

00:28:02.400 Here's

00:28:02.820 another

00:28:03.180 supposition.

00:28:04.980 If you

00:28:05.300 play a

00:28:05.620 video game

00:28:06.200 with,

00:28:06.520 say,

00:28:06.640 a friend,

00:28:07.900 the two

00:28:08.320 of you

00:28:08.660 are inhabiting,

00:28:09.520 let's say,

00:28:09.800 different

00:28:10.080 avatars,

00:28:11.080 and maybe

00:28:11.460 the rest

00:28:11.860 of the

00:28:12.080 characters

00:28:12.440 are NPCs,

00:28:13.640 just robots.

00:28:15.380 How can

00:28:16.020 you,

00:28:16.420 how can

00:28:16.720 the two

00:28:17.080 avatars

00:28:17.700 that know

00:28:18.080 each other

00:28:18.520 in the

00:28:19.480 outside

00:28:19.960 world,

00:28:21.020 make sure

00:28:21.660 they know

00:28:22.000 each other

00:28:22.420 in the

00:28:22.820 inside

00:28:23.160 world,

00:28:23.620 and they

00:28:23.840 can tell

00:28:24.120 the difference

00:28:24.700 between a

00:28:26.740 real player

00:28:27.560 and an

00:28:28.520 NPC.

00:28:30.240 If we're

00:28:31.080 a video game,

00:28:31.800 you probably

00:28:32.240 would need

00:28:32.640 to be able

00:28:32.940 to tell

00:28:33.200 the difference

00:28:33.700 within the

00:28:34.260 game,

00:28:35.100 so you

00:28:35.440 know which

00:28:35.760 ones are

00:28:36.140 real.

00:28:37.480 Have you

00:28:37.780 ever noticed

00:28:38.380 that there's

00:28:39.740 some people

00:28:40.220 that seem

00:28:40.620 real in

00:28:41.120 your life,

00:28:42.020 and there

00:28:42.580 are others

00:28:42.940 that are

00:28:43.740 there,

00:28:44.680 but they

00:28:45.580 don't seem

00:28:46.080 real?

00:28:47.320 In other

00:28:47.640 words,

00:28:47.960 there's some

00:28:48.440 connection

00:28:48.940 that you

00:28:49.300 never make

00:28:49.820 with them.

00:28:50.260 They're

00:28:50.360 almost like

00:28:51.700 scenery.

00:28:53.020 But there

00:28:53.320 are other

00:28:53.580 people that

00:28:54.880 you know

00:28:55.400 from the

00:28:55.860 first moment

00:28:56.540 you see

00:28:56.960 them,

00:28:57.340 oh,

00:28:57.780 that's a

00:28:58.220 real one.

00:28:59.620 Come on,

00:29:00.140 you're on

00:29:00.360 the team.

00:29:01.420 You know

00:29:01.960 your teammate

00:29:02.540 in the game

00:29:04.220 as soon as

00:29:05.120 you see him.

00:29:06.200 You know

00:29:06.600 that's my

00:29:07.000 teammate.

00:29:08.260 Sometimes it

00:29:08.940 looks like

00:29:09.400 love at

00:29:09.800 first sight.

00:29:11.320 Sometimes it's

00:29:12.060 meeting a

00:29:12.520 friend and

00:29:12.980 you say,

00:29:13.500 there's some

00:29:13.800 reason I met

00:29:14.360 this friend.

00:29:14.840 like there's

00:29:15.840 something about

00:29:16.360 this friend

00:29:17.140 that's not

00:29:18.160 like the

00:29:18.560 other things.

00:29:19.480 There's just

00:29:20.100 something about

00:29:20.660 this person

00:29:21.220 and then

00:29:21.880 your friends

00:29:22.300 for life.

00:29:23.900 So I just

00:29:24.660 put that out

00:29:25.260 there.

00:29:25.500 Nothing like

00:29:26.000 a scientific

00:29:26.600 proof,

00:29:27.300 but fun.

00:29:27.760 Here's an

00:29:28.800 update on

00:29:30.000 the ivermectin

00:29:31.140 dust-up.

00:29:33.380 So I've

00:29:33.880 accidentally

00:29:34.340 created a

00:29:35.260 little intellectual

00:29:36.420 battle on

00:29:37.160 Twitter between

00:29:37.920 Brett Weinstein

00:29:39.040 and Andres

00:29:41.380 Backhaus.

00:29:42.540 The topic is

00:29:43.920 the effectiveness

00:29:44.580 of ivermectin

00:29:45.700 and Brett

00:29:47.480 recently did

00:29:48.820 a very

00:29:49.700 well done

00:29:51.560 and well

00:29:52.320 viewed video

00:29:54.020 with a

00:29:55.340 doctor,

00:29:56.080 Dr. Corey

00:29:56.760 was it,

00:29:57.660 in which

00:29:58.440 they talked

00:30:00.040 about the

00:30:00.400 many studies

00:30:01.620 that show

00:30:02.180 ivermectin

00:30:02.800 is effective

00:30:03.360 but each

00:30:04.080 individual study

00:30:05.040 might be

00:30:05.540 flawed or

00:30:06.180 too small

00:30:06.820 or have

00:30:08.020 its issues.

00:30:09.040 But if you

00:30:09.320 do a

00:30:09.580 meta-analysis

00:30:10.360 of all

00:30:10.720 of them

00:30:11.060 it becomes

00:30:11.660 clear that

00:30:12.420 ivermectin

00:30:13.060 is overwhelmingly

00:30:13.920 useful

00:30:15.300 against the

00:30:16.760 COVID.

00:30:17.940 Now,

00:30:19.280 that all

00:30:20.200 sounds very

00:30:20.700 convincing

00:30:21.060 and as I

00:30:22.060 said,

00:30:22.460 if you're

00:30:22.700 just watching

00:30:23.180 one point

00:30:23.840 of view,

00:30:24.760 you walk

00:30:25.220 away from

00:30:25.540 that video

00:30:25.980 saying,

00:30:26.360 well,

00:30:26.460 that's pretty

00:30:26.880 good and I

00:30:27.840 don't have

00:30:28.120 anything to

00:30:28.540 say about

00:30:28.900 that.

00:30:29.640 It all

00:30:30.080 looks like

00:30:30.580 it's backed

00:30:31.020 by data.

00:30:32.220 Smart people

00:30:32.920 did smart

00:30:33.520 things with

00:30:34.060 the data and

00:30:34.660 now they've

00:30:35.020 got a

00:30:35.280 conclusion.

00:30:35.900 Why would

00:30:36.200 I doubt

00:30:36.540 it?

00:30:37.800 And then

00:30:38.140 Andres

00:30:38.560 Backhouse

00:30:39.040 comes along

00:30:39.740 whose

00:30:40.760 expertise is

00:30:42.680 economics and

00:30:44.340 that gives

00:30:45.280 you the

00:30:45.600 ability to

00:30:46.160 compare things

00:30:46.960 and essentially

00:30:48.200 be good at

00:30:48.760 analyzing data

00:30:49.940 and situations

00:30:51.500 like that.

00:30:52.780 And Andres

00:30:53.280 points out

00:30:53.940 that meta-analyses

00:30:55.840 are not

00:30:56.300 generally

00:30:56.700 considered a

00:30:58.260 gold standard.

00:30:58.980 I'm paraphrasing

00:31:01.620 here.

00:31:01.920 He didn't

00:31:02.200 use those

00:31:02.660 words.

00:31:03.460 But the

00:31:03.740 point is

00:31:04.160 that there

00:31:04.520 are lots

00:31:05.400 of smart

00:31:05.720 people who

00:31:06.240 would say

00:31:06.700 some version

00:31:07.340 of this.

00:31:08.480 And one

00:31:08.920 expert said

00:31:09.520 exactly this

00:31:10.280 in an article

00:31:11.160 I just read.

00:31:12.500 He said

00:31:13.160 if the

00:31:13.880 signal is

00:31:14.480 clear,

00:31:15.260 in other

00:31:15.520 words,

00:31:15.720 if you've

00:31:16.000 got a

00:31:16.200 bunch of

00:31:16.520 different

00:31:16.940 studies that

00:31:17.940 aren't that

00:31:18.360 great in

00:31:19.180 their design,

00:31:20.260 but they

00:31:20.900 all say

00:31:21.340 clearly the

00:31:22.080 same

00:31:22.360 conclusion.

00:31:23.940 Now let's

00:31:24.280 say your

00:31:25.380 study showed

00:31:26.540 100% success

00:31:27.760 no matter

00:31:28.740 what kind

00:31:29.220 of study

00:31:29.580 you did.

00:31:30.760 Well,

00:31:31.280 if every

00:31:31.920 study you

00:31:32.460 do showed

00:31:33.840 100% success

00:31:35.080 no matter

00:31:35.920 how poorly

00:31:36.520 designed the

00:31:37.180 study was,

00:31:38.820 well,

00:31:39.300 probably it

00:31:40.160 works,

00:31:41.140 right?

00:31:41.580 And you

00:31:42.120 don't need

00:31:42.480 a meta-analysis

00:31:43.340 because you

00:31:44.600 can just look

00:31:45.040 at it and say,

00:31:45.600 well,

00:31:45.860 it doesn't

00:31:46.180 matter what

00:31:46.540 we throw

00:31:46.920 at it,

00:31:47.780 every single

00:31:48.420 study,

00:31:49.340 no matter

00:31:50.000 how poorly

00:31:50.560 designed,

00:31:51.300 no matter

00:31:51.620 what problems

00:31:52.280 we put

00:31:52.680 into it,

00:31:53.100 it's such

00:31:54.080 a strong

00:31:54.580 effect that

00:31:55.200 you still

00:31:55.640 see it.

00:31:57.000 When that's

00:31:57.600 the case,

00:31:58.900 you don't

00:31:59.320 need a

00:31:59.600 meta-analysis,

00:32:00.420 right?

00:32:01.260 So if the

00:32:01.940 signal is so

00:32:02.640 strong you

00:32:03.180 can just

00:32:03.480 see it by

00:32:03.960 looking at

00:32:04.420 it,

00:32:04.660 you don't

00:32:05.060 need the

00:32:05.480 meta-analysis.

00:32:07.140 But what

00:32:07.480 if it isn't?

00:32:08.600 What if

00:32:09.000 looking at

00:32:09.520 it is like,

00:32:09.960 I don't

00:32:10.500 know,

00:32:11.380 it's a

00:32:11.680 little bit

00:32:11.980 all over

00:32:12.740 the map,

00:32:13.600 maybe the

00:32:13.980 results are

00:32:14.660 not gigantic,

00:32:16.640 but they

00:32:16.880 might be

00:32:17.320 small,

00:32:17.820 we don't

00:32:18.140 know.

00:32:18.800 If it's

00:32:19.240 unclear,

00:32:21.160 then it

00:32:21.660 turns out

00:32:22.240 that when

00:32:22.980 you do

00:32:23.260 the meta-analysis,

00:32:24.960 what matters

00:32:25.660 the most

00:32:26.360 is what

00:32:27.160 assumptions

00:32:27.600 you made.

00:32:29.720 Which

00:32:30.200 studies you

00:32:31.200 said,

00:32:31.540 well,

00:32:31.840 we'll either

00:32:32.800 leave the

00:32:33.340 preprint studies

00:32:34.160 out or we'll 0.87

00:32:34.940 include them

00:32:35.460 in,

00:32:35.900 just one

00:32:36.420 example,

00:32:37.260 of the many

00:32:37.840 decisions you

00:32:38.580 would make

00:32:39.020 about,

00:32:40.020 oh,

00:32:40.260 this study,

00:32:40.980 well,

00:32:41.660 I did say we

00:32:42.540 were going to

00:32:42.880 include all

00:32:43.500 the studies,

00:32:44.180 even if they

00:32:44.780 had flaws,

00:32:45.500 but gosh,

00:32:46.460 I think this

00:32:47.060 one is more

00:32:47.600 flawed than the

00:32:48.300 other ones.

00:32:48.740 So this

00:32:49.820 one I'll

00:32:50.140 keep out

00:32:50.680 because it

00:32:51.560 isn't the

00:32:51.920 kind of

00:32:52.380 flaw that

00:32:52.980 the other

00:32:53.280 ones have

00:32:53.900 or something.

00:32:55.280 So the

00:32:55.620 point is,

00:32:57.260 the meta-analysis

00:32:58.320 is not

00:33:00.360 something that

00:33:01.000 all experts

00:33:01.640 say,

00:33:02.000 oh,

00:33:02.220 yeah,

00:33:02.560 you got

00:33:02.860 me with

00:33:03.380 the meta-analysis.

00:33:04.620 Some experts

00:33:05.380 say,

00:33:06.100 I don't

00:33:06.520 believe in

00:33:06.940 meta-analysis

00:33:07.660 because you

00:33:08.360 had too

00:33:08.740 many choices

00:33:09.520 when you

00:33:10.660 decided how

00:33:11.320 to do it.

00:33:12.180 So it

00:33:12.580 was your

00:33:12.900 choices and

00:33:14.300 your assumptions

00:33:14.900 that created

00:33:16.440 the outcome.

00:33:17.080 It wasn't

00:33:17.380 the data.

00:33:18.360 It was

00:33:18.640 the assumptions

00:33:19.140 you made

00:33:19.700 about which

00:33:20.540 data to

00:33:21.020 use.

00:33:21.440 That's all

00:33:21.780 that happened.

00:33:23.920 Now,

00:33:25.420 so there's

00:33:26.960 been some

00:33:27.420 back and

00:33:27.840 forth.

00:33:28.240 I think

00:33:28.460 Andres just

00:33:29.420 posted just

00:33:30.700 when I was

00:33:31.200 going live.

00:33:33.080 So he's

00:33:33.740 making his

00:33:34.260 point that

00:33:34.980 maybe some

00:33:35.980 of Brett's

00:33:36.660 data is

00:33:37.360 more coincidence

00:33:38.160 and that

00:33:39.400 each time

00:33:39.920 you see

00:33:40.280 the ivermectin

00:33:41.680 come in

00:33:42.260 and you

00:33:43.280 see the

00:33:43.860 infection rate

00:33:45.120 drop,

00:33:46.500 that in

00:33:47.160 all or

00:33:48.620 enough of

00:33:49.720 those cases

00:33:50.300 to destroy

00:33:51.860 the point,

00:33:53.000 in all or

00:33:53.680 enough of

00:33:54.080 those cases

00:33:54.620 there are

00:33:54.980 also other

00:33:55.560 things going

00:33:56.140 on and

00:33:57.200 you can't

00:33:57.620 untangle

00:33:58.060 them.

00:33:58.860 Meaning that

00:33:59.740 there's always

00:34:00.280 a change in

00:34:00.980 the lockdown,

00:34:01.880 the weather's

00:34:02.380 getting better,

00:34:03.120 the vaccinations

00:34:03.740 are pouring

00:34:05.100 in, our

00:34:06.440 ability to do

00:34:07.280 therapeutics is

00:34:08.160 better, we

00:34:08.880 have vaccinated

00:34:09.520 and protected

00:34:10.960 the most

00:34:11.400 vulnerable,

00:34:12.300 we know

00:34:13.600 how to treat

00:34:14.480 these things,

00:34:16.000 blah, blah,

00:34:16.660 blah, blah,

00:34:16.980 blah.

00:34:17.620 So how do

00:34:18.340 you know it

00:34:18.700 was just

00:34:19.000 the ivermectin?

00:34:21.020 Because I

00:34:23.460 don't know if

00:34:23.900 this is true,

00:34:25.220 but I'll bet

00:34:26.140 you could look

00:34:27.160 for random

00:34:27.900 variables that

00:34:28.840 also correspond.

00:34:31.040 So you've

00:34:32.900 got one view

00:34:33.580 that says it's

00:34:34.440 so obvious in

00:34:35.200 the data that

00:34:35.920 maybe you don't

00:34:36.540 even need a

00:34:38.140 meta-analysis,

00:34:39.280 but they did

00:34:40.000 one, and you've

00:34:41.460 got at least

00:34:42.580 one very smart

00:34:43.620 person saying

00:34:44.620 don't believe

00:34:46.080 in meta-analyses.

00:34:47.920 But, this

00:34:49.580 gets back to

00:34:50.160 my original

00:34:50.660 point, right?

00:34:52.880 Apparently the

00:34:53.720 data is so

00:34:54.440 strong, meaning

00:34:56.220 that basically

00:34:57.060 every test says

00:34:58.880 that ivermectin

00:34:59.780 works, do you

00:35:01.540 need to do a

00:35:02.420 meta-analysis?

00:35:03.860 If every study

00:35:05.220 shows it works,

00:35:06.480 how is the

00:35:07.240 meta-analysis

00:35:08.060 going to show

00:35:08.660 something different?

00:35:09.380 What the hell

00:35:11.480 kind of assumptions

00:35:12.300 could you make

00:35:13.260 if every study

00:35:14.720 shows it works?

00:35:16.420 There's nothing

00:35:17.100 you could

00:35:17.500 deselect that

00:35:19.340 would turn that

00:35:19.900 into the wrong

00:35:20.680 answer, would

00:35:21.400 it?

00:35:23.160 Now, again,

00:35:25.200 you need the

00:35:25.800 gold standard

00:35:26.580 randomized

00:35:27.520 controlled trial,

00:35:29.880 you need a

00:35:30.480 huge number of

00:35:31.500 people to make

00:35:32.220 sure that you

00:35:32.820 have enough of

00:35:33.400 them, and we

00:35:34.800 don't have that

00:35:35.600 yet for ivermectin.

00:35:36.900 And so, here's

00:35:40.900 the question, and

00:35:44.320 here's what

00:35:44.980 Brett said on

00:35:46.120 a tweet, and

00:35:48.120 he was

00:35:48.680 concerned that

00:35:49.300 I'm being

00:35:50.400 influenced maybe

00:35:51.620 in the wrong

00:35:52.220 direction on

00:35:52.800 this topic, and

00:35:54.560 I asked him what

00:35:55.280 he thought I got

00:35:55.840 wrong, and

00:35:56.780 Brett responded,

00:35:58.180 and what I saw,

00:35:59.200 meaning watching

00:36:00.020 the Twitter back

00:36:01.480 and forth and

00:36:02.200 maybe the

00:36:03.160 live stream, I'm

00:36:03.780 not sure, he

00:36:04.700 said, and what

00:36:05.180 I saw, you

00:36:05.960 meaning me,

00:36:07.180 correctly found

00:36:08.260 the reputation

00:36:09.040 hazard issue, but

00:36:11.340 then allowed a

00:36:12.260 credential to

00:36:13.140 back you off the

00:36:14.100 increasingly obvious

00:36:15.280 pattern.

00:36:16.800 Would you agree

00:36:17.840 with his

00:36:18.260 statement?

00:36:19.200 Did I allow a

00:36:20.580 credential, and

00:36:21.540 I assume he's

00:36:22.240 meaning Andres,

00:36:24.080 backhouse, did I

00:36:25.860 allow Andres'

00:36:27.440 credentials to

00:36:29.160 back me off an

00:36:30.280 increasingly obvious

00:36:31.520 pattern?

00:36:32.900 Well, I don't

00:36:33.820 believe I backed

00:36:34.660 off an obvious

00:36:35.480 pattern.

00:36:35.960 one, because I

00:36:37.500 never said the

00:36:38.120 pattern doesn't

00:36:38.760 exist, did I?

00:36:41.060 I'm looking at

00:36:41.860 your comments, and

00:36:42.480 you're agreeing

00:36:42.940 with them.

00:36:45.060 What does it

00:36:45.800 mean to back

00:36:46.520 off an obvious

00:36:47.260 pattern?

00:36:49.040 Define that.

00:36:50.180 What does this

00:36:50.620 statement mean?

00:36:51.440 That I backed

00:36:53.100 off an increasingly

00:36:54.280 obvious pattern.

00:36:56.100 You know that

00:36:56.900 doesn't mean

00:36:57.360 anything, right?

00:36:59.620 Like, you're

00:37:00.620 agreeing with a

00:37:01.260 statement that is

00:37:02.900 neither true nor

00:37:03.780 false, it doesn't

00:37:04.720 mean anything.

00:37:05.960 How do you back

00:37:07.300 off an obvious

00:37:08.020 pattern?

00:37:09.860 Did I say the

00:37:11.720 pattern is not

00:37:12.540 obvious anymore?

00:37:14.380 Did I ever say

00:37:15.060 that?

00:37:15.580 Have I ever said

00:37:16.400 that the pattern is

00:37:17.280 not obvious?

00:37:19.300 The whole point of

00:37:20.420 it is the pattern is

00:37:21.300 obvious.

00:37:22.460 The only reason we're

00:37:23.540 talking about it is

00:37:24.980 that 100% of the

00:37:26.060 people who look at it

00:37:26.840 say, well, the

00:37:27.280 pattern's obvious.

00:37:27.920 The critics say the

00:37:29.820 pattern's obvious.

00:37:30.900 The proponents say the

00:37:32.240 pattern's obvious.

00:37:33.680 Brett says the

00:37:34.500 pattern's obvious.

00:37:35.980 Andre says the

00:37:36.960 pattern's obvious.

00:37:38.260 I say the pattern's

00:37:39.240 obvious.

00:37:40.020 As far as I know,

00:37:41.880 the studies are very,

00:37:43.260 very, very weighted

00:37:44.500 toward it working.

00:37:46.640 And each study has

00:37:48.160 some issues.

00:37:49.960 Where have I backed

00:37:51.100 off?

00:37:52.260 So that's my view.

00:37:54.020 It's never changed.

00:37:55.540 Tell me where I

00:37:56.580 changed my view.

00:37:57.660 Where did I evolve?

00:37:59.920 Where am I wrong?

00:38:02.080 Yeah, you got a

00:38:02.680 little, you got

00:38:03.440 pretty fucking quiet,

00:38:04.540 didn't you?

00:38:06.720 So here's my point.

00:38:08.480 We can't even tell

00:38:09.660 what somebody else is

00:38:10.560 arguing.

00:38:11.600 Right?

00:38:12.340 You don't even know

00:38:13.460 what my fucking point 0.74

00:38:14.620 is half the time.

00:38:15.940 Which is normal.

00:38:17.140 That's not a

00:38:17.960 criticism of the view.

00:38:18.880 It is completely

00:38:20.360 normal for human

00:38:21.700 beings not to even

00:38:23.200 understand the

00:38:23.840 fucking point.

00:38:25.300 Much less disagree

00:38:26.240 with it.

00:38:26.820 Much less have

00:38:27.380 different data.

00:38:28.560 Much less have a

00:38:29.240 better analysis.

00:38:30.480 Much less have

00:38:31.080 better pattern

00:38:31.660 recognition.

00:38:32.700 Half the time you

00:38:33.320 don't even know

00:38:33.740 what the fuck I'm

00:38:34.360 saying.

00:38:35.280 All right?

00:38:35.780 And there's nothing

00:38:36.400 wrong with you.

00:38:37.740 Right?

00:38:38.000 That's not a

00:38:38.600 criticism in the

00:38:39.360 least.

00:38:40.000 Same with me.

00:38:41.460 Right?

00:38:41.740 It's just a thing.

00:38:43.180 People don't always

00:38:44.540 fully understand what

00:38:45.660 other people say.

00:38:46.680 It's the most common

00:38:47.540 thing in the world.

00:38:48.880 So, here's my

00:38:50.280 point of view.

00:38:52.060 The pattern is

00:38:53.600 100% obvious.

00:38:56.040 It's never been

00:38:57.140 less than 100%

00:38:58.840 obvious.

00:39:00.240 But, people can be

00:39:03.020 fooled by obvious

00:39:04.880 patterns.

00:39:07.100 That's all.

00:39:08.640 Keep that in mind.

00:39:09.900 Let's talk about

00:39:10.680 Putin and Biden.

00:39:12.580 Apparently, Putin is

00:39:13.660 putting the screws on

00:39:15.620 Biden a little bit

00:39:17.560 here.

00:39:18.840 And, I guess,

00:39:22.700 President Putin on

00:39:24.560 Monday signed a law

00:39:25.660 to officially end the

00:39:26.500 country's open skies

00:39:27.740 treaty with the U.S.

00:39:28.920 So, that treaty allowed

00:39:30.360 us to fly over Russia

00:39:31.600 and Russia to fly over

00:39:32.800 the U.S.

00:39:33.740 to build confidence

00:39:35.060 that neither was doing

00:39:36.740 things in a big way

00:39:38.140 that would be, you know,

00:39:39.720 militarily aggressive

00:39:41.540 or something.

00:39:42.240 But, I don't know if

00:39:44.020 there was much value

00:39:44.840 in that because, who

00:39:46.200 knows, can the

00:39:46.940 satellites see it all

00:39:47.800 anyway?

00:39:49.260 Does it matter if we

00:39:50.340 have an open skies

00:39:51.120 treaty?

00:39:52.080 Does that really

00:39:52.720 buy us anything?

00:39:53.820 Because probably

00:39:54.360 between the, you

00:39:55.780 know, the cyber

00:39:56.740 means and satellites,

00:39:59.080 I feel like we can

00:40:00.100 see their shit and they 0.84

00:40:01.020 can see our shit. 0.79

00:40:02.480 Like, I don't know

00:40:03.020 if that, if you talk

00:40:04.160 to an expert, would

00:40:05.000 they say this even

00:40:05.700 matter, this treaty?

00:40:06.660 But, the fact that

00:40:08.320 he's cancelling now,

00:40:09.760 so soon to when

00:40:10.900 Putin and Biden

00:40:12.240 are going to meet,

00:40:13.200 is kind of a little

00:40:14.000 slap in the face.

00:40:15.120 It's a little bit

00:40:15.840 telling of who's in

00:40:16.840 charge.

00:40:18.940 Interestingly, last

00:40:19.980 month, I think

00:40:21.160 Fox News reported

00:40:23.460 this, that the

00:40:24.940 Biden administration

00:40:25.720 told Russia that 0.55

00:40:27.700 it had no plans to

00:40:28.740 rejoin the arms

00:40:29.740 control pact, that

00:40:31.880 Trump abandoned.

00:40:33.360 So, Trump had

00:40:34.260 canceled an agreement

00:40:35.620 with Russia on

00:40:36.400 arms control, and

00:40:38.020 during the, during

00:40:40.320 the election, a

00:40:42.580 candidate, Biden

00:40:43.380 had said that it

00:40:44.200 was short-sighted.

00:40:45.520 So, Biden

00:40:46.260 criticized Trump

00:40:47.820 for canceling

00:40:49.240 that deal, and

00:40:50.620 now Biden agrees

00:40:51.760 with Trump that

00:40:52.840 the deal should

00:40:53.420 not be reinstated.

00:40:55.360 So, add this to

00:40:56.940 your growing list

00:40:58.960 of times when

00:41:01.440 Trump was

00:41:02.200 criticized for

00:41:03.160 being wrong and

00:41:04.660 has been proven

00:41:05.540 right.

00:41:06.400 add it to the

00:41:07.460 list.

00:41:08.280 The list is

00:41:08.940 getting pretty

00:41:09.420 long.

00:41:10.500 The things that

00:41:11.140 Trump told us

00:41:11.900 were true, but

00:41:13.580 the news and the

00:41:14.640 Democrats had to

00:41:15.460 just disagree because

00:41:16.440 it was Trump, and

00:41:17.660 now they're just

00:41:18.300 eating their, their

00:41:19.440 words.

00:41:20.200 So, here's another

00:41:20.820 example.

00:41:24.480 All right.

00:41:25.280 So, he's right

00:41:26.540 again.

00:41:27.580 You know, there

00:41:28.240 was one thing that

00:41:28.980 I was most worried

00:41:30.040 about with this

00:41:30.800 pandemic, and, you 0.94

00:41:33.660 know, beyond the

00:41:34.600 danger and the

00:41:35.820 economics of it.

00:41:36.760 Of course, we're all

00:41:37.520 worried about the

00:41:38.040 deaths and the

00:41:38.880 economy.

00:41:40.040 But, one of the

00:41:41.640 things I was most

00:41:42.580 worried about is

00:41:43.600 that when it was

00:41:44.260 done, a significant

00:41:46.040 number of the

00:41:46.760 public would say it

00:41:47.740 never happened.

00:41:49.960 Because I could kind

00:41:50.860 of see this coming

00:41:51.640 from a mile away.

00:41:53.400 And when I say it

00:41:54.240 never happened, I

00:41:55.220 mean that there

00:41:55.980 will be a substantial

00:41:56.840 amount of the

00:41:57.680 public who will say,

00:41:58.660 as Tucker Carlson

00:42:00.960 did last night, that

00:42:02.720 it was just a severe

00:42:03.700 seasonal flu, because

00:42:06.120 the death rates were

00:42:06.860 so low.

00:42:08.280 How many of you

00:42:09.060 would agree that

00:42:10.780 now it looks like

00:42:11.780 we're seeing

00:42:12.160 something like the

00:42:12.920 end of it?

00:42:13.580 How many would you

00:42:14.360 agree with this

00:42:16.400 shocking statement

00:42:17.520 that it was not a

00:42:19.020 pandemic, really, we

00:42:20.840 just treated it like

00:42:21.760 one, and that it

00:42:22.760 was nothing more

00:42:23.420 than a pretty bad

00:42:24.660 seasonal flu?

00:42:27.120 How many of you

00:42:27.900 agree with that?

00:42:29.020 I'm going to read

00:42:29.760 off your statements.

00:42:31.120 Agree, agree,

00:42:31.960 disagree.

00:42:33.400 No, no, very bad

00:42:34.880 flu.

00:42:35.360 I agree, I agree.

00:42:36.640 Yes.

00:42:37.840 Hyperbole, but was

00:42:38.800 way overhyped.

00:42:40.240 Not a pandemic.

00:42:41.820 Yes.

00:42:42.340 No, disagree, don't

00:42:43.580 agree.

00:42:44.200 No, no, no.

00:42:45.500 All right.

00:42:46.100 So, you can see

00:42:46.940 from that that there

00:42:48.260 are plenty of people

00:42:49.360 who agree with this

00:42:50.480 statement that a

00:42:51.900 pandemic didn't

00:42:53.640 fucking happen.

00:42:56.520 It makes me a

00:42:57.500 little crazy.

00:42:58.660 So, here's my

00:42:59.900 context to help you

00:43:01.720 out.

00:43:02.060 Number one, it's

00:43:04.480 not a bad seasonal

00:43:05.600 flu because the

00:43:06.560 regular seasonal

00:43:07.360 flu isn't real.

00:43:09.380 Meaning, the numbers

00:43:11.060 that we get every

00:43:11.840 year about people

00:43:13.140 dying from the

00:43:13.940 flu probably have

00:43:15.900 never been real.

00:43:17.380 Meaning that the

00:43:18.660 real number of

00:43:19.380 people who die from

00:43:20.240 the flu is probably

00:43:22.820 closer to nobody.

00:43:23.900 Now, the real

00:43:26.180 seasonal flu numbers

00:43:27.540 are collected by

00:43:28.800 statistics.

00:43:30.340 They just say, well,

00:43:31.340 it looks like more

00:43:31.900 people died this

00:43:32.660 season than usual,

00:43:33.840 so that must be the

00:43:34.860 flu people.

00:43:36.140 They don't count 0.80

00:43:37.140 flu deaths.

00:43:38.580 And what about

00:43:39.300 people who are old 0.98

00:43:40.340 and have the flu

00:43:41.240 and then die?

00:43:42.720 Did they die of the

00:43:43.680 flu?

00:43:45.020 Well, I don't know.

00:43:46.420 They had the flu

00:43:47.040 and they were about

00:43:48.320 ready to die.

00:43:49.760 So, the first thing

00:43:50.760 you need to know is

00:43:52.200 that there was never

00:43:53.740 a thing, as far as I

00:43:55.100 can tell, could be

00:43:56.580 wrong, right?

00:43:57.260 So, I'm going to allow

00:43:58.080 that I could be wrong

00:43:58.820 about this, but based

00:44:00.240 on what I can see so

00:44:01.160 far, the regular flu

00:44:03.080 was the hoax.

00:44:06.580 The regular flu.

00:44:08.500 This is not a bad

00:44:09.900 version of the regular

00:44:11.020 flu because the regular

00:44:12.820 flu deaths were always

00:44:13.940 a hoax.

00:44:15.400 They didn't exist.

00:44:16.460 And that means I'm

00:44:20.800 going to have to run

00:44:21.380 really fast, but let

00:44:22.400 me give you this

00:44:22.880 comparison.

00:44:25.000 Tucker points out

00:44:26.020 that 99.5% of people

00:44:28.200 under the age of 70

00:44:29.740 would survive COVID-19,

00:44:31.880 therefore it wasn't

00:44:32.900 really a pandemic.

00:44:34.380 So, 99.5% survived,

00:44:36.600 so you shouldn't be

00:44:37.140 worried about that.

00:44:38.280 Let me ask you this.

00:44:39.280 What percentage of

00:44:40.100 Americans, all Americans,

00:44:42.120 died in World War II?

00:44:44.100 Was World War II a big 0.84

00:44:45.440 deal?

00:44:46.200 Anybody?

00:44:46.800 Anybody?

00:44:47.760 Was World War II a big 0.84

00:44:48.880 deal?

00:44:49.800 I think it was.

00:44:50.960 Seems like a big deal.

00:44:51.980 It's in all the history

00:44:52.680 books.

00:44:53.640 In World War II, how

00:44:55.340 many Americans died?

00:44:56.720 0.3%.

00:44:58.040 In other words, as a

00:45:01.980 percentage of the

00:45:02.740 whole country, fewer 0.91

00:45:05.220 Americans died in all of 1.00

00:45:08.100 World War II than died

00:45:10.700 in the pandemic.

00:45:11.380 Now, if you want to say

00:45:13.720 that didn't happen, then

00:45:15.880 pick a side and say,

00:45:17.400 yeah, and World War II

00:45:18.480 was no big fucking deal. 0.53

00:45:20.740 Vietnam, nothing.

00:45:23.380 If that's your view,

00:45:24.800 support it.

00:45:26.180 Just tell me that the

00:45:27.560 Civil War was sort of a

00:45:29.100 blip, World War II was

00:45:31.060 an inconvenience, and it's

00:45:34.380 about the same, if that's

00:45:35.880 your view.

00:45:36.640 All right, I have to run.

00:45:37.640 I wish I could stay, but I

00:45:40.740 do have to run, and I

00:45:41.960 will talk to you tomorrow.

Real Coffee with Scott Adams - June 07, 2021

Episode 1399 Scott Adams： Nothing But Goodness and Kindness. Possibly Cookies

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